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BULLETIN
Sunday, 21 March 2004






>> HUGGING PERVEZ 3...


War on Islamic militants is a stunt, say Pakistan tribal leaders
By Peter Foster in Peshawar
(Filed: 22/03/2004)
A new offensive against Islamic militants living in the lawless tribal areas of Pakistan was dismissed by tribal leaders yesterday as a stunt aimed at "appeasing America".
Amid growing anger at mounting civilian casualties, tribal elders in Wana, the scene of the fighting, called a jirga - tribal council - to demand a ceasefire from Pakistan government troops. At least 13 civilians have now died in fierce fighting which erupted around the outpost town in South Waziristan last Tuesday. Unconfirmed reports said a further eight died yesterday.
Last week official Pakistan sources, apparently backed up by the president, General Pervaiz Musharraf, said they believed the al-Qa'eda second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, might be trapped in the hills above Wana. However, officials backtracked from this position yesterday, saying it was more likely that fighters were protecting "criminals" or that the "high value al-Qa'eda target" was, in fact, an Uzbek militant leader.
This admission has only fuelled speculation that the attacks around Wana were intended to demonstrate Pakistan's commitment to the war on terrorism at a time when the US has been pressing the country to take firmer action against militants. The Pakistan military announced yesterday that it had arrested up to 100 "foreign militants".
Maulan Khalil-ur-Rehman, a tribal leader who is also a member of parliament, expressed the bitterness felt by the tribes.
"These 'foreign fighters' living in Wana were heroes of Islam when they were fighting the Soviets, but now we are told by Musharraf and America they are terrorists," he said at a demonstration in Peshawar. Crowds of demonstrators across Waziristan yesterday demanded that local politicians expel the troops from the area.
Although described as "foreign", many of those arrested, including Uzbeks, Chechens and Arabs, have lived in the region for years, marrying into local communities and speaking the local Pathan dialect.
The ferocity of the army's assault on the hills outside Wana is also partly explained by the fact that 19 paramilitaries and two officials were taken hostage in the disastrous initial assault last week. Yesterday government officials issued a two-day ultimatum to release the captives.
The government forces are also locked in a battle of political wills with the Yargul Khel clan, a warlike group who have ignored all requests to hand over "foreign militants".
Yesterday elders from Wana were dispatched to request the release of the hostages, but early reports suggested they had failed.
In the town itself, local sources reported light fighting throughout the day, but that eight road workers were killed when an army helicopter attacked them.

? Copyright of Telegraph Group Limited 2004.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Al-Zawahri Says Al Qaeda Has Nuke Bombs -Biographer
Sun Mar 21, 2004 09:25 PM ET
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Al Qaeda's second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahri claims the militant Islamic organization has bought briefcase nuclear bombs on the central Asian black market, according to Osama bin Laden's biographer.
Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir has told an Australian Broadcasting Corporation television program, to be aired on Monday night, that when he interviewed Osama bin Laden and al-Zawahri in 2001 he asked whether al Qaeda had nuclear weapons.
Mir said al-Zawahri laughed and said: "Mr Mir, if you have US$30 million, go to the black market in central Asia, contact any disgruntled Soviet scientist and a lot of dozens of smart briefcase bombs are available.
"They have contacted us, we sent our people to Moscow, to Tashkent, to other central Asian states and they negotiated and we purchased some suitcase bombs," Mir quoted al-Zawarhi on the ABC program "Enough Rope," recorded last Monday from Islamabad.
The Egyptian al-Zawahri, a doctor, is regarded as the brains of al Qaeda and a key figure behind the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States.
Al Qaeda is suspected of having an interest in acquiring weapons of mass destruction, whether nuclear, biological or chemical, but no evidence of a program was found in searches of its bases after the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Security experts say it is highly unlikely that bin Laden and his al Qaeda network have got anywhere close to acquiring nuclear weapon technology, but they do not rule it out.
Experts have long said it might be easier for al Qaeda to create a dirty bomb -- a cocktail of non-fissile material and explosives capable of creating damage -- but that would spread radioactivity over only a limited area.

? Copyright Reuters 2004. All rights reserved.

----------------------------------------------------

Left and Right poll upset for Chirac
By Philip Delves Broughton in Paris
(Filed: 22/03/2004)
President Jacques Chirac was reprimanded by voters last night as his party was trounced in the first round of French regional elections in which the extreme Right Front National demonstrated its growing popularity.
The Front National made advances in its traditional heartlands, the croissant shape of regions arcing from Marseilles in the south, up along the east of France and round towards Calais. These are the regions most affected by immigration.
Front National candidate Marine Le Pen votes in Paris
According to exit polls, the Left, represented by the Socialists, Communists and Greens, won around 40 per cent. The Right, led by the president's Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (UMP), won around 35 per cent. The Front National won just over 17 per cent.
Polls have shown growing dissatisfaction with the government's attempts at economic reform. Unemployment remains high, the unions have objected consistently to pension reforms and job cuts in the public sector, and most recently France's intellectuals have accused the government of being philistine.
The Front National's results will guarantee that its candidates stay in the race for next week's second round of voting. The party's voters will then have to decide whether or not to stick with the Front, or throw their votes to either of the main Left and Right parties.
Jean-Marie Le Pen, the Front's leader, said last night's results were "even better" than those of the presidential election in 2002, when he succeeded in knocking the Socialists out in the first round of voting.
Both the Socialists and the UMP have ruled out cutting any deals with M Le Pen in order to secure majorities. The Socialists' leader, Francois Hollande, said the election results sent a "serious warning" to the government.

? Copyright of Telegraph Group Limited 2004
----------------------------------------------------
Chirac sinks deeper into mire of scandal
By Philip Delves Broughton in Paris
(Filed: 02/02/2004)

President Jacques Chirac was fighting last night to regain control of a fast unravelling scandal encircling his political power base.
M Chirac seized charge of an inquiry into alleged telephone taps, break-ins and violent threats against judges investigating Alain Jupp?, the former prime minister and his heir apparent, convicted on Friday of organising illegal party funding.
M Chirac: changed the law to protect him while in office
The extraordinary intervention came the day after the justice ministry announced it would investigate the allegations.
His gazumping of his own ministry indicates the seriousness with which he is taking the insinuation that he or his allies tried to pressure the judges in the Jupp? case.
A statement issued by the prime minister's office said M Chirac had asked for three of the most senior judges in Paris to oversee the investigation and report to him in a month. "If these allegations are proved, they will be extremely serious," said the statement.
It is the first time M Chirac has launched such an inquiry, despite similar allegations over many years from magistrates investigating his colourful political past.
Jupp? and 21 of M Chirac's former aides and business partners were convicted in relation to the funding of M Chirac's RPR party during the late 1980s and early 1990s.
In a tough ruling, Judge Catherine Pierce effectively ended Jupp?'s political career by banning him from public office for 10 years and handing him an 18-month suspended prison sentence.
Jupp?'s conviction has outraged M Chirac and his supporters and provoked open warfare between France's supposedly independent judiciary and the politicians who find it meddlesome.
Bernadette Chirac, the president's wife, challenged the court's findings at the weekend by calling Jupp? "a statesman of great stature and an honest man".
Others close to the president have sought to cast doubt on the judge's motives, anonymously accusing her in newspapers of envy and political malice. They are saying her ruling will be overturned on appeal.
Jupp? and M Chirac share a relationship similar in nature to that between Peter Mandelson and Tony Blair.
For nearly 30 years, Jupp? has been the tactician and organiser for the more personable M Chirac. He was described by his mentor as "the most brilliant man of his generation" and "the best among us".
Judge Pierce, 54, has hit back at the president's supporters by describing the sinister pressures placed on her and her two fellow judges in the Jupp? case.
She told Le Parisien newspaper that her office had been broken into, her home and office telephones tapped, her computer files rifled and that she received a death threat before Jupp?'s sentencing.
"Lots of people wanted to know our decision," she said. In one incident she arrived at work to find the false ceiling in her office had been pulled down. A maintenance worker said the door to the next office was jammed and he was trying to get through the gap in the ceiling.
Judge Pierce was sceptical and began keeping notes on a personal computer rather than the office system, which she suspected was being accessed by outside parties. All of the judges suspected their telephones were tapped. One complained of strange time delays during his conversations, another of strangers' voices in the background.
The allegations lend a murky aura to a long legal process which has bedevilled M Chirac and his entourage. They are also consistent with complaints by other judges who have threatened the highest levels of the establishment.
Eric Halphen, a magistrate who spent seven years investigating alleged kickbacks paid to M Chirac's staff for building contracts while he was mayor of Paris, left the legal profession in 2002 and wrote a book describing what he endured. He said threatening notes were left on his windscreen and his telephone was tapped.
M Halphen summoned the president as a witness in the case, but after months of delay M Chirac succeeded in having the law on presidential immunity changed to protect him from legal suits while in office.
Several other cases against M Chirac remain in legal limbo because of his immunity. These include charges that he fiddled his grocery bill at the Paris town hall.
How else, magistrates have asked, could he have spent ?1.5 million in eight years simply to feed himself and his wife? And why was nearly ?1 million of that settled in cash?
M Chirac has also been implicated in the case which brought down Jupp?, involving the use of Paris town hall money to pay salaries to party employees.
Jupp? told friends that if he was convicted he would leave politics altogether so that he could retain his integrity in the "eyes of Clara", his daughter.
He is currently mayor of Bordeaux, a member of parliament and president of M Chirac's ruling party, the Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (UM). He has lodged an appeal, which could take another year to be heard.

30 September 2003: Chirac feels the heat as ally faces corruption trial


? Copyright of Telegraph Group Limited 2004
-----------------------------------------------------

>> OUR FRIENDS THE SAUDIS...

Saudi Arabia Criticizes U.S. Reform Plans
Sun Mar 21, 2004 10:10 AM ET
RIYADH (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal criticized U.S.-led calls for reform in the Middle East on Sunday and said Arab countries could tackle their problems by themselves.
He was speaking just two days after talks in Riyadh with Secretary of State Colin Powell.
The U.S. proposals "include clear accusations against the Arab people and their governments that they are ignorant of their own affairs," the official Saudi Press Agency quoted the prince as saying in the Yemeni capital Sanaa.
"Those behind these plans ignore the fact that our Arab people have cultures rooted deep in history and that we are able to handle our own affairs," he said.
Powell's visit to Riyadh was overshadowed by Washington's criticism of the arrest of at least 10 pro-reform activists in Saudi Arabia.
The United States is eager to promote reform in the Middle East and has encouraged its long-standing ally, the world's biggest oil producer, to speed up change since the September 11 attacks which were carried out by mainly Saudi hijackers.
Washington believes lack of democracy in Arab states has helped fuel Islamic militancy. Arab leaders meet in Tunis later this month seeking a common response to the U.S. plans, dubbed the "Greater Middle East Initiative."
Saudi Arabia has already promised municipal elections later this year, but the conservative Muslim kingdom says its cautious program of political change will not be influenced by outside pressure.
Last week it rejected U.S. criticism of its arrest of the reformists, saying the detentions were an internal affair. Several of the detainees have been released.
Prince Saud said calls for Arabs to join the modern world were being made "as if for all these years we had not been doing anything and had just been waiting for direction from outside."
He said any foreign help should be concentrated toward settling the Palestinian-Israel conflict and a "genuine economic partnership" with the Arab world.

? Copyright Reuters 2004. All rights reserved.
--------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER
Sunday, March 21, 2004 ? Last updated 11:08 a.m. PT
Seven of 13 Saudis detained are released
By DONNA ABU-NASR
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- Seven of 13 Saudi reformists arrested in a crackdown on dissent that brought condemnation from Washington have been released, activists said Sunday.
One of those released, Najib al-Khunaizi, said they first had to pledge in writing not to petition for reform of the Saudi system or talk to reporters.
The professors, lawyers and writers, who were detained last week in several Saudi cities, had - in newspaper articles and television appearances - criticized the kingdom's strict religious environment and slow pace of reform.
The Saudi government began a cautious move toward reform after the Sept. 11 attacks carried out by 19 Arab hijackers, 15 of them Saudi.
While it has encouraged debate and allowed newspapers more freedom to criticize, the arrests indicate the regime sees the reformists as a threat.
"Those guys who were detained and the ideas they represent have made a lot of waves, sparking a lot of debate," said Ibrahim al-Mugaiteeb, head of Human Rights First, an independent group.
"The government was afraid the debate would not remain a debate in the papers," he added.
Some had signed a recent letter to Crown Prince Abdullah calling for a speedy introduction of political, economic and social reform, including elections of the Consultative Council, which acts as a parliament and is appointed by the king.
Others had demanded the absolute monarchy become a constitutional monarchy and that Saudi Arabia review its relations with the United States.
And some criticized the new, National Human Rights Association, whose members also are appointed by the king.
U.S. State Department spokesman Adam Ereli condemned the detentions last week as "inconsistent with the kind of forward progress that reform-minded people are looking for."
Angered by what it saw as U.S. interference in an internal matter, the Saudi Foreign Ministry responded by issuing a statement saying it was "disappointed" by the U.S. reaction to the arrests.
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell expressed concern over the detentions during a meeting with Crown Prince Abdullah in Riyadh on Friday.
The Saudi government has accused the men of incitement and of using the names of prominent Saudis in petitions without asking their permission first.
Despite their activities, the men do not carry the kind of importance, political weight or popular base that would have undermined the government.
However, the arrests were seen as a message to other, more influential Saudis whose detentions would have created a stir among the public - such as religious clerics who claim they have shed their extremist past and are pursuing a more moderate course.
Al-Khunaizi, who was arrested Tuesday in the eastern, mostly Shiite city of al-Qatif, said the detainees were treated well and kept in offices or in villas, not in prison cells. "There was no abuse or insults of any kind," he said in a telephone interview.
The detentions were a test of the new, state-sanctioned human rights group. Several of its members refused to comment on the detentions, telling The Associated Press it was too early to do so.
Many Saudi intellectuals and liberals have cast doubt on the association's ability to function as an independent body when many of its members hold government jobs, are former civil servants or close to the government. Its head, Abdullah al-Obeid, is a member of the Consultative Council.
Al-Obeid remained silent on the issue for a few days. In remarks published Saturday, he told Okaz daily that his association will be "following up on this matter with the competent authorities."
Al-Obeid was quoted as saying the association does not know the reasons for the men's arrest, "but the official authorities ... are entitled to arrest anyone for questioning - this matter is legal."
-----------------------------------------

The NHS can't afford to lose able managers who tell the truth
By Barbara Amiel
(Filed: 22/03/2004)
Squish. Kaput. A combination of union bullies and cowardly colleagues managed to get rid of a leading hospital trust administrator last Friday. Since effective hospital trust chairmen are as close to extinction as certain blue butterflies, this is not progress for the NHS - though it is certainly a politically correct moment. Goodbye, Barrie Blower, MBE, chairman of the three-star Walsall hospital trust, who resigned last Friday.
About once a week, we read of a hospital horror. The wrong kidney is removed from some poor bloke, who is left on dialysis for life. A large clamp remains inside a patient after surgery.
Mistakes are made in all sorts of jobs; it's just that, in the world of medicine, the mistake can kill. Most hospital chiefs prefer an administrative Valhalla, where they don't have to answer questions from families of patients. They can issue an anaemic statement apologising for any concern caused. The matter is "under investigation".
Mr Blower appears not to have been like that at all. When Tracey Davies wanted to talk about the death of her mother from lung cancer last December, Mr Blower made himself available. And not just for a 10-minute chat: for three hours.
Later, Mrs Davies, 41, would say: "My mother was terminally ill, and there has never been any question about the nursing staff being negligent, but we felt we needed more information about the time she died." She was not allowed to speak to the nurses who were on duty at the time and Mrs Davies wanted to hear about the last hours of her mum.
Some post-mortem it turned out to be. For Mrs Davies was wired. She secretly recorded her conversation with Mr Blower on a tape recorder, either under her clothes or in a James Bond handbag.
She says that, after getting the run-around from two lower-level hospital managers, she wanted to prevent Mr Blower "going back on anything he said". Fair enough, though that doesn't quite explain why the tape leapt from her hands into those of Carlton Television.
This is what Mr Blower "couldn't take back". In speaking of agency nurses, he said: "It's an awful set-up. We advertise in the Philippines and in India to attract nurses to be attached to the hospital, to try and get rid of these agency people. They kill more people than they bloody save, these do. It's an awful bloody set-up but we've got to have them." Newspaper leaders were apoplectic. Unison, the public service union, called for his resignation.
Mr Blower's remarks were certainly intemperate and reckless and he has apologised fully for them. But was the outrage because those remarks were untrue? Were they ill-informed?
If dependence on agency nurses compromises standards of care, then, even if they don't kill more people than they save, the importance of what he is saying dwarfs any problem of intemperance he exhibited. And we should be grateful that, far from resigning, he had the courage to finger a problem that is potentially a matter of life and death for every one of us.
Walsall Hospital has looked at its records and sees no relationship between complaints and agency nurses. The hospital uses fewer agency nurses than many trusts, and its use of them has been declining. The larger issue remains, though. Agency nurses are the supply teachers of the medical profession. They come in to fill a vacancy. Sometimes they fill in for a shift, sometimes for a couple of days.
A few years ago, when I was a regular patient at a London NHS hospital, the agency nurses would occasionally be assigned to wards in which they had no particular expertise. Some were good. Some were bad. In this, they matched the normal ratio in nursing, or any other job.
But common sense suggests that there is a fundamental difference between the history supply teacher who fills in for a geography class and the paediatric nurse who is assigned to the trauma floor.
Hospitals do their best to fit nurses to the job for which they are qualified. I'm fairly certain no hospital would allow an inexperienced nurse to assist in the operating room or intensive care unit. But a lot of damage can get done in much less dramatic settings.
The best nursing care comes from the nurse who is not only experienced but has some continuity with both patients and hospital. Continuity of care ought to be a high priority.
Agency nurses can have all the training in the world, but they aren't Socrates and Mother Teresa combined. Dropping nurses into constantly new settings is like putting a pupil in a new school each time. They don't get what's going on.
One of my agency nurses was unfamiliar with the idiosyncrasies of the doctor's handwriting and the routine I was on. When there was no senior nurse around to help her, she hooked up another bottle of my unfamiliar and rather viscose infusion at a speed that would have burst my bad veins in short order.
After she had left, I changed the volumetric pump to a slower drip, having learnt that the safest thing in hospital is to learn how to do things for yourself. Easy enough for me, but not so easy for the very ill chap on the same floor who got hooked up to the wrong tube for a nasty few moments.
The nursing profession is in crisis. In the grim old days, women seeking work had fewer choices than they do now. The grim thing today is the working conditions of nurses and so, understandably, fewer women choose to go into the profession.
Health care is crumbling under the costs of our ageing society. The standard market solution - solve shortages by competitive salaries - is not possible. Importing nurses from overseas, which Mr Blower sees as the solution, creates its own problems.
The six-month period of "adaptation" is sometimes more honoured in the breach: language and body language between foreign nurse and British patient are often unsatisfactory.
According to studies, some "English-speaking" nurses speak English all right; they just don't understand local English very well - which may be why the on-line Hindustan Times accused Mr Blower of "racism" when his remarks were quite the opposite.
Some foreign nurses see the request for painkillers as unnecessary, given standards in their homeland or the rather reticent behaviour of the British in pain.
At any rate, the NHS is now short of one skilled manager. Mr and Mrs Davies are said to be distraught that their actions caused this situation. "I haven't slept for three days," says Mrs Davies. We wish her a good night. A lot of patients may lose their sleep for far longer.

Next story: You can probably be sure of Shell


? Copyright of Telegraph Group Limited 2004
------------------------------------------------

washingtonpost.com
Doomed Hubble's Fans Flood NASA With Ideas
By Guy Gugliotta
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, March 21, 2004; Page A01
BALTIMORE -- One devotee wants to send a "giant clamshell" into space to pluck the telescope from the ether and bring it home. Several others suggest sending it to the moon. Or maybe selling it to Coca-Cola to pay for a rescue. And if all it took were donations or volunteers, the job would probably already be done:
"I am broke . . . but I will send $50.00 right now, if it will help save Hubble," read one message that fluttered in over NASA's Hubblesite Web page a couple of weeks ago. "If you need someone to take a chance riding the shuttle and help fix it, I am your guy. You should know that I am almost 50. Kind of makes me a long-shot candidate."
Two months have elapsed since NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe announced that the agency was canceling the Hubble Space Telescope's fourth space shuttle servicing mission, essentially sentencing the orbiting observatory to death sometime in the next few years.
The news was divulged almost as a by-the-way amid the fanfare accompanying President Bush's new moon-Mars initiative, but it has provoked a level of anguish and outrage that has overwhelmed whatever excitement the administration may have hoped to kindle with proposed new ventures in space.
Hubble's distress touched a national nerve. It has become the people's telescope, its fate of vital interest to everyone from the scientists who use it and minister to its needs to amateur astronomers to breakfast-table enthusiasts who marvel at Hubble's spectacular images.
"Let me get this straight. We are going to take the greatest telescope ever conceived . . . and then we are going to blow it up?" one man wrote on Hubblesite. "Do you people have a clue? . . . The American People own the Hubble. How dare you even consider blowing her up?"
"Within our own Hubble community, we've had nothing but shock and outrage," said Steven Beckwith, director of the Space Telescope Science Institute (STSI) here, which supervises Hubble's observations. "The public outpouring has been extraordinary."
Beckwith said he has received hundreds of e-mails of support and suggestions for saving Hubble. O'Keefe has acknowledged to reporters that his "e-mail system is clogged every day."
Other NASA offices also report a brisk traffic in Hubble mail, and Hubblesite has received thousands of messages, Beckwith said. Institute officials agreed to let The Washington Post quote from the January and February Hubblesite traffic as long as the writers were not identified.
What emerges from this outpouring is an "us-vs.-them" truculence that views the Hubble's demise as collateral damage in what many see as the administration's misguided march to the moon and Mars, an idea opposed by 62 percent of Americans, according to a Jan. 18 Washington Post-ABC News poll.
"Hubble is the only truly useful piece of work NASA has done in years," one man wrote to Hubblesite in January. "Moon-or-Mars-men are . . . a waste of taxpayer money. Do real science. Do Astronomy!"
What has happened, said University of Michigan psychologist Daniel J. Kruger, is that Hubble has become a national treasure. "It doesn't need a publicist, because it speaks for itself," said Kruger, who studies the spread of ideas and culture. "When we have something like the Hubble sacrificed, people want to know, 'What do we get out of this?' We may eventually get to do [the moon and Mars], but at what price?"
The dismay wells up at all levels. At an institute news briefing earlier this month to unveil a Hubble deep space image, the usually circumspect Beckwith suddenly remarked in anguished wonderment that "never in the history of telescopes have we developed an observing capability and given it up."
Scientists and staff at the same meeting broke into cheers and applause when Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski (D-Md.) promised "to stand up for Hubble" and seek reconsideration of O'Keefe's decision. "I believe that the future of Hubble should not be made by one man in a back room," she said.
Later that week, after a mostly cordial encounter with O'Keefe during a Senate hearing, Mikulski said she would ask the National Academy of Sciences to do a "risk-value" study on a space shuttle mission to service the Hubble. When it became apparent that O'Keefe did not share her views, she sent him a letter threatening to continue funding the telescope "until an informed decision" on Hubble's future could be made.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the Capitol, Rep. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) is circulating a proposed resolution calling for a review of O'Keefe's decision and continuation of plans for a servicing mission until Hubble's fate is resolved.
"I didn't know the interest was there, but we're getting hundreds of letters and e-mails," Udall said in a telephone interview. "People are saying, 'Wait a minute, this is penny-wise and pound-foolish. With a little gumption and hard work, we can get the service mission up there.' "
Probably not. Despite the cascade of bad publicity, O'Keefe has remained steadfast in his view that the shuttle will not travel to Hubble unless the mission complies with new safety measures recommended after the space shuttle Columbia disintegrated on reentry last year.
The likelihood that a Hubble mission could comply is virtually nil, O'Keefe said to reporters recently. NASA would have to develop special technologies allowing a shuttle crew to make repairs to the spacecraft without assistance. This might be done, but not in time to get a shuttle to the telescope before its batteries wear out and its gyroscopes spin down.
"Could we [send the shuttle early] and take the risk? Sure," O'Keefe said. "But somebody else will have to make that decision. Not me." Hubble, he acknowledged, "is a real gem of an instrument. But you have to think about reality."
The hope now is that a Feb. 20 "request for information" put out by NASA will elicit fresh thoughts on how an unmanned mission might travel to Hubble and somehow service the telescope.
"There's no shortage of ideas," said Hubble project manager Preston Burch, of the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, in charge of Hubble hardware and servicing. Among the potentially feasible ones are suggestions that a robot spacecraft might grapple Hubble and attach external power packs and gyroscopes to keep it operating.
Not plausible so far, however, is the idea that the shuttle might somehow tow the telescope to the international space station for periodic servicing. This engineering exploit, a favorite on the Internet, would require a change in the inclination and height of Hubble's orbit.
"It would take a tremendous amount of power to do that," Burch said in a telephone interview. "And if you bring it down to the space station, how do you get it back up?"
While these options percolate, Goddard is also working on the grimmer business of prolonging Hubble's life, and eventually pushing the dead telescope into a higher graveyard "parking orbit" or steering it into Earth's atmosphere on a trajectory that would guide its fiery remains to crash into an uninhabited area.
At best, the batteries and gyros will last until about 2008, but Goddard engineers say they may be able to squeeze out an extra year or two by running the telescope on two, or even one, gyroscope, adopting battery-saving measures and, finally, triage.
"You have to have enough battery power to run the equipment at night and have a backup for emergencies," explained David S. Leckrone, Hubble's senior project scientist. "At some point, the batteries will no longer be able to fully charge during the day, and when that happens, we'll have to turn off equipment."
For a public in denial, however, the focus is on cures, not hospice care. "Wouldn't it be easier to robotically go up there with a giant clamshell made from those fancy reentry tiles and just bring it back?" asked one man on Hubblesite in January.
Or have the telescope "contract with Coca-Cola or Pepsi, etc. to pay the Russians to repair HST in return for a small Coke, Pepsi, etc. logo in the corner of each Hubble picture," another message said.
Other correspondents suggested that NASA "put it on eBay," "issue Hubble bonds," "get schoolchildren involved in collecting donations," or "land your telescope on the moon and build abservatorium there."
But above all, "please don't can the Hubble," one fan wrote. "I made Ds in high school science, and a D in college science. Until the Hubble, I thought the only galaxy was the Milky Way."

? 2004 The Washington Post Company
----------------------------------------------------
Decoding the Chatter
Inside the nerve center of America's counterterrorist operations
By TIMOTHY J. BURGER
Most of America is sleeping, but deep within CIA headquarters in northern Virginia, officials pulling overnight duty are scarfing junk food, soft drinks and coffee as they surf mountains of intelligence reports for the latest potential threat to Americans. These are the men and women of the year-old Terrorist Threat Integration Center (TTIC). As they sit at gray, modular workstations equipped with secure computer terminals and phones, their toil is long and arduous but never dull. "It's day right now in half the world, so this shift's pretty fast paced," says an official. "In another hour, it's morning prayers in East Africa. It's morning already in Kabul."
In an unprecedented tour of TTIC's interim quarters as well as the CIA's Counterterrorist Center and the pipeline that leads to the site of President Bush's top-secret daily intelligence briefings, TIME correspondents got an inside look at the nerve center of America's efforts against terrorism. The atmosphere was one of camaraderie mixed with urgency. Asked how often a night goes by without any potentially alarming intelligence reports coming in, an official replies, "I haven't had a night like that. There's always something."
Each day, officials at TTIC (pronounced tee-tic) examine 5,000 to 6,000 pieces of intelligence, trying to assemble the best picture of what's out there. Staffed by representatives of about a dozen government entities, TTIC strives to address the failure of agencies to share vital intelligence before 9/11. "We have an FBI analyst who's sitting next to a CIA analyst who's sitting next to a Secret Service analyst who's sitting next to a Coast Guard analyst," says TTIC chief John Brennan, a senior CIA officer. "They take information from their different systems and say, 'Hey, have you seen this?' or 'Is this something that affects what you're doing now?'"
Brennan insists TTIC doesn't run spy operations inside the U.S., which the CIA is prohibited from doing. But, he says, as TTIC chief he can quickly get the FBI to do so to fill "gaps in our knowledge." The center is helping to monitor "a lot of folks who have acquired U.S. citizenship or green cards that are engaged in international terrorism," says Brennan. A well-placed source says the FBI now keeps tabs on about 400 individuals in the U.S. who are thought to be sympathetic to al-Qaeda or somehow connected to Sunni extremism. The FBI has also tried to co-opt some of them as informants.
Toward midnight, in an interview in a nondescript office in the Counterterrorist Center, a senior official describes a mission that is much closer to the Hollywood image of spy work: intense, often risky covert action against terrorists abroad. "Our job is to capture them and kill them," the official says. That means, he explains, taking action "at the direction of the President, by formal decree, clandestinely. Sometimes you're acting at his direction to change the world."
But even at the Counterterrorist Center, the official notes, much of the work is "so goddam nitty-gritty it'll turn your mind numb." Some of the best intelligence comes from interrogating captured terrorists. The Counterterrorist Center helps direct and analyze those sessions. It's all about "who knew who five years ago," says the official. "Where did they go after that? How did the network expand? What were they plotting then? Where did they live? Who did they live with?" But the adrenaline really gets pumping after an attack like the one in Madrid. The Counterterrorist Center will immediately run through a checklist of questions: What's the first take from the local intelligence service? What kind of evidence was found? Did anyone get a license plate? Was there any known operational terrorist cell there before? Are there satellite intercepts of telephone conversations? If the local authorities arrested someone, is that person known to the CIA?
In another part of the CIA complex, President Bush's briefer is on her way in. The thirtysomething, nine-year agency veteran is winding up a year-plus rotation in the job, which requires her to get to work around 2 a.m., six days a week. "Everything [the CIA] has produced in the past 24 hours crosses my desk," she says. That's plenty. To determine what intelligence the President should hear at around 8 a.m., along with his standard daily reports, she will zoom through a stack of fresh intelligence as tall as three phone books.

--By Timothy J. Burger. With reporting by Viveca Novak and Elaine Shannon/Washington

Copyright ? 2004 Time Inc. All rights reserved.
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Trilateral Maneuvers
Iran gets tight with Syria and Lebanon.

By Ilan Berman

If the Bush administration needed another reason to look beyond Baghdad in its war on terrorism, it has just been given one. In late February, Iran's defense minister, Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, embarked on a whirlwind tour of Syria and Lebanon. The resulting tightening of ties between Tehran, Beirut, and Damascus marks the birth of an ominous new alliance, deeply threatening to American interests.

Shamkhani's diplomatic offensive commenced with a two-day tour of Syria. There, Iran's defense minister held a very public summit with his Syrian counterpart, Lieutenant General Mustafa Tlas, at which the two hammered out a landmark strategic accord. The new "memorandum of understanding" establishes a joint working group on bilateral military and security, paving the way for deeper defense-industrial cooperation between Tehran and Damascus. More significant still, the agreement contains an unprecedented Iranian commitment to defend Syria in the event of either an Israeli or an American offensive, formally making the Baathist state a part of Iran's security.

From Damascus, Shamkhani traveled to Beirut, where he held court with the upper echelons of the Lebanese government. In meetings with the country's president, Emile Lahoud, as well as Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri and Army Commander Michel Soleyman, he pledged closer military ties with Beirut -- and an active Iranian role in Lebanon's emerging military modernization.

The Iranian defense minister also made a point of meeting with the leadership of Lebanon's Shiite terrorist powerhouse, Hezbollah, to whom he confirmed that the newly minted security guarantees between Syria and Iran would extend to their country. The message was unmistakable -- the Israeli and American "enemy" would now "think a thousand times before attacking Lebanon."

Tehran's full-court press is already paying dividends. In an outright show of support, President Lahoud has publicly praised the regional importance of the emerging "Tehran, Damascus, and Beirut axis." And Syrian officials -- under fire abroad for their government's deep support for terrorism -- have similarly made no secret of their enthusiasm for the nascent alliance's deterrent potential.

But these stirrings reflect more than simply a broadening of political bonds between Iran, Syria, and Lebanon. They are indicative of a larger realignment now underway in the Middle East, where the political vacuum created by overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime has begun to be filled.

And Iran is rapidly emerging as the biggest beneficiary of the new regional status quo. Over the past two years, American efforts in the war on terrorism have successfully eliminated Iran's most immediate strategic adversaries -- Saddam Hussein's Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan -- while effectively de-clawing the principal terror threat to the Islamic republic: the radical, Iraq-based Mujahedeen e-Khalq organization. These moves have left the United States Iran's principal remaining regional challenger. It is no wonder that Iranian policymakers like Expediency Council Secretary Mohsen Rezai have begun to view their country as the natural "center of international power politics" in the post-Saddam Middle East.

Tehran has wasted no time translating this vision into action. In recent months, the Islamic republic has gravitated toward a new, more confrontational strategic doctrine -- one that includes a major expansion of Iran's military capabilities and political presence in both the Persian Gulf and the Caucasus. This aggressive agenda has only been solidified by the sweeping victory of regime hard-liners in the country's recent, hotly contested parliamentary elections.

The trilateral alliance just crafted in Damascus and Beirut is a big part of these plans. Iran's leaders hope that such a radical coalition will blunt the impact of the U.S.-led transformation taking place in Iraq on their own restive population, and derail larger American plans for a sea change in the region's political balance -- an initiative they view as a "serious threat to the security, independence, and stability of the Islamic countries." Simultaneously, Tehran is seeking an answer to pro-Western constructs, like the Israeli-Turkish strategic partnership, capable of supplementing American efforts. And, in the midst of the war on terrorism, the Islamic republic is working hard to ensure the continued relevance of its most potent regional proxy, Hezbollah.

If it manages to accomplish these objectives, Washington might just find that U.S. Middle East policy has become a victim of Tehran's success.

-- Ilan Berman is vice president for policy at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, D.C.


http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/berman200403190918.asp
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ON LANGUAGE
Outsource
By WILLIAM SAFIRE

Outsourcing has become a national dirty word,'' reports National Journal's Congress Daily.

And it started out so brisk and efficient. Back in 1979, The Journal of the Royal Society of Arts reported an American auto executive's saying, ''We are so short of professional engineers in the motor industry that we are having to outsource design work to Germany.'' But the business practice of contracting with outside suppliers -- especially those outside the United States -- soon brought frowns from labor unions. Business Week noted in 1981 that the ''decline in auto industry jobs . . . will make outsourcing a key issue.''

When a new verb makes it to a gerund so quickly, it's a sign that the word fills a linguistic need. (Outsourcing is the present participle of a verb -- ending in ing -- that is used as a noun, which makes it a gerund, and there'll be a question about that in your exam.) For a generation, as globalization generated about twice as many jobs in the United States as it shipped abroad, the issue was relatively quiescent. But since 2000, when the creation of new jobs began to dip and then further decreased during recession, outsourcing became a favored political target of populists.

N. Gregory Mankiw, the Harvard economist and political innocent heading the Council of Economic Advisers, placed himself squarely in the bull's-eye. In his annual report -- 417 dreary pages issued in the president's name that nobody on the White House staff had the good sense to vet -- he noted that ''one facet of increased services trade is the increased use of offshore outsourcing, in which a company relocates labor-intensive service-industry functions to another country.'' He then observed, ''When a good or service is produced more cheaply abroad, it makes more sense to import it than to make or provide it domestically.''

Though few economists would take issue with this idea first propounded by David Ricardo in 1817, the language seemed deliciously insensitive in a campaign year. Mankiw was forced to apologize: ''My lack of clarity left the wrong impression that I praised the loss of U.S. jobs.''

Writing on the Web site of the leftist magazine The Nation, the iconoclastic Matt Bivens blurted out the truth: ''The dirty little secret in all of this is that both parties support free trade -- which works roughly as Mankiw describes it. He just wasn't supposed to be so coolly honest about it. It's disconcerting.'' Even more disconcerting to antiprotectionists was another attack gerund, emphasizing the shipment of jobs not just to outside suppliers but also to those in foreign lands: offshoring.

Business interests immediately considered a euphemistic counter-attack. A few years ago, in 2001, when legislation was introduced to enable the president to negotiate trade deals without subsequent Congressional modifications, free-traders changed the name of fast track authority, which seemed hasty, to trade promotion authority, a lexical coating that helped the necessary medicine go down.

The earliest thought along these lines appeared in 1998 in Fleet Owner magazine, noted by the alert Paul McFedries in his Web site, wordspy.com: ''While the traditional model of outsourcing defines the customer and the service provider as two separate systems, the intersourcing model integrates two systems.'' However, the freshly coined intersource, while a perfectly logical extension of the outsource concept, could lend itself to sexual innuendo on late-night television and was hurriedly abandoned.

This month, a group calling itself the Coalition for Economic Growth and American Jobs (who could be against that?) decided to oust out from outsourcing, proposing instead worldwide sourcing.

Within Cegaj, as the coalition has not yet become widely known, worldwide was chosen over global because the adjective global had become too warm -- that is, the noun formed from the adjective's verb, globalization, had acquired a pejorative connotation, in turn casting a pall over the root global itself. The use of world as an attributive noun, however, is still O.K.; that use as a modifier has been long established in World Series, World Cup, World Bank, World Economic Forum, world class, etc. This is despite the fact that the word, as a regular noun, is now eschewed by concerned liberals, who much prefer planet.

Forget international. This soporific modifier has been rejected by naming committees not on ideological grounds but because it is too long a word to fit in a one-column headline. It remains in old and revered institutions, like the International Monetary Fund and the International House of Pancakes, but is not being used in the newest nomenclature.

The astute reader (apparently the only kind I have, judging by sustained and gleeful e-mail howling from the Gotcha! Gang) will note the use of source two paragraphs above in its journalistic sense, as ''provider of information.''

In the inexorable trend toward the verbification of nouns, the question asked a generation ago by editors -- ''Do you really have a source for this?'' -- was changed to ''How has this been sourced?'' As if on cue, in galumphed the gerund -- ''You have to be careful about sourcing'' -- and sourcemanship became as good as scholarship. Our use of the gerund (which, you may recall, is a verb ending in ing used as a noun and possesses mysterious syntactical qualities) surely influenced the adoption of outsourcing.

In journalese, sourcing means ''getting some living person or historical citation to justify an assertion.'' Viewed from inside an organization, a source can be a despised leaker, traditionally described as ''a disgruntled ex-employee''; viewed from outside, he or she is a courageous whistle-blower. Closing down an overseas bureau and hiring independent ''stringers'' to do the reporting can be considered a specialized form of outsourcing. Basing an article on information gleaned from a journalistic colleague is sometimes called sourcing once removed, but maybe we should take another look at intersource.


Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company
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>> AHEM...
(AP Photo/Chitose Suzuki)

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/040321/480/bx10103212130
Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, right, makes a joke about a rumor that Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) had a plastic surgery, holding photos of Kerry, left, and pop star Michael Jackson during the annual St. Patrick's Day breakfast in Boston, Sunday, March 21, 2004. The breakfast, which gave President Bush (news - web sites) and Kerry the opportunity to engage in some lighthearted, long-distance one-upmanship, has been a tradition for more than 50 years, and is a prelude to the annual South Boston St. Patrick's Day Parade. Boston Mayor Thomas Menino is seen laughing in the foreground.
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Kerry and Bush urged to tone down election attacks frenzy
Sun Mar 21, 6:08 PM ET Add Politics - AFP to My Yahoo!
WASHINGTON (AFP) - President George W. Bush (news - web sites) and Democratic rival John Kerry (news - web sites) were warned tone down their presidential election attacks or risk a vote boycott by alienated Americans.
With a new poll showing Bush and Kerry neck-and-neck in the race, senior members of the Republican and Democratic parties appealed to the rivals to change tactics.
"Let's keep it civil so we don't get so nasty that we discourage people from coming out and voting in a very important election," said Senator Joseph Lieberman, who was a contender against Kerry for the Democratic nomination.
"This nation is almost evenly divided politically. And there are strategists in both parties who are urging both candidates to go for victory by whipping up into a frenzy the partisan, ideological base of both parties," Lieberman told Fox News channel.
Senator John McCain, who challenged Bush for the Republican nomination in 2000, said opinion poll verdicts on the campaign of attack adverts and political mudslinging would force them to change tactics.
"If they start getting polling numbers like I think they will of people who will say: 'A pox on both your houses,' then I think it will change. And I hope that it does," he told Fox.
McCain said he was hearing from people in his home state of Arizona who are saying: "Look, I'm not even going to vote if this is the way the campaign's going to be conducted."
With the election months away on November 2, Bush and Kerry are already entrenched in what has become the longest White House campaign ever.
Kerry launched aggressive attacks on the Republican president during his battle for the Democratic nomination. Bush is now fighting back with a series of television adverts decrying the Democrat as "wrong on taxes" and "wrong on defence".
Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites) have made strong assaults on Kerry and his policies and voting record in recent speeches.
A Newsweek magazine survey released Saturday said Bush and Kerry were even on 48 percent of voter support. A poll by the magazine one month ago put the Massachusetts senator ahead of the president 48-45 percent.
The survey said that if veteran liberal consumer advocate Ralph Nader (news - web sites) maintains his candidacy, Bush would lead by 48-45 percent.
Meanwhile, Bush encroached on Kerry's home turf Sunday when he called Massachusetts politicians who were attending an annual Saint Patrick's day breakfast in Boston.
One local politicans jokingly asked Bush to dump Cheney and consider Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, a Republican, as his new running mate.
"Look, you're lucky to have the guy. Here's the way I like to put it about Massachusetts: I know there's a lot of talk about a Massachusetts politician who has his eye on the presidency," Bush responded.
"But tell Mitt it's not open until 2008," he said, referring to the year that would mark the end of his second term if he were re-elected to a second four-year term.
On the more serious side, one other prominent Republican, Senator Chuck Hagel, was also critical of the Bush campaign's attacks on Kerry's Senate voting record.
"The facts just don't measure the rhetoric," he told ABC television.
He said campaigns could take the voting record of any longstanding senator "pick out different votes, and then try to manufacture something around that."
All the senators warned that a vicious election campaign risked undermining what should be a common aim to win the war on terror and make a success of attempts to restore order in Iraq (news - web sites).
Hagel said: "Kerry and Bush must conduct themselves in a way that when November 2 comes, whoever wins, they are going to have to be able to have legitimacy and the authority to govern this country and keep this coalition together."
He warned: "We may find ourselves over the next four years unable to sustain our policies in Iraq, Afghanistan (news - web sites) and on our war against terrorism, because the politics have so divided this country."
Lieberman, Democrat Al Gore (news - web sites)'s running mate in the 2000 presdiential election, said Bush and Kerry must "make sure that we carry on this debate in a way that doesn't send a mixed message to the Iraqis or our troops there, or to our enemies there. We're together in trying to find a strategy for success and victory and democracy in Iraq."
He added: "Our security is being challenged in a way that it's never been challenged before, so let's not divide ourselves right now."

Posted by maximpost at 10:08 PM EST
Permalink

>> JOHN KERRY FILES...

His brother's keeper

By Sara Leibovich-Dar
haaretz
In 1972, John Kerry tried to get elected to the U.S. Congress as a representative from Massachusetts. His brother, Cameron Kerry, helped with his election campaign. He was a Catholic at the time. Twelve years later, in 1984, John Kerry ran for the Senate. His brother was at his side again - this time as a Jew. A year earlier he had undergone a Reform conversion and married Kathy Weinman, a Jewish lawyer from Michigan.
It's three days after Super Tuesday earlier this month, the day of nine Democratic primaries, when John Kerry consolidated his victory and was named the party's presidential candidate. Cameron Kerry laughs when asked if his conversion changed the nature of his advice to his brother.
"It didn't make any difference," he said in a telephone interview from his Boston law office. "Jews were always involved in Democratic politics, and were around the Democratic Party. It doesn't affect what I am doing. I am the cheerleader, adviser and surrogate to my brother."
He takes a relaxed attitude toward his conversion. "It was important to my wife and to her family. We decided to raise our children Jewish. After this, the conversion itself was a small step, which came easily and comfortably."
How did your family react?
Kerry: "They supported me. We grew up in a cosmopolitan environment."
Cameron Kerry is the youngest of four siblings. The family history is complicated. John and Cameron Kerry's grandfather, Frederick Kerry, was born as a Jew named Fritz Kohn, in the town of Bennisch in the Austro-Hungarian empire (today Horni Benesov, in the Czech Republic). His wife, Ida Loewe, was also born a Jew. In 1902, after marrying and becoming a father, Kohn changed his name in the population registry to Frederick Kerry. In 1905 he came to the United States, where he lived as a Catholic. In 1921 he committed suicide, apparently as a result of financial difficulties. His American descendants were Catholic. Two members of his family who remained in Europe were murdered in Nazi concentration camps.
Cameron Kerry says that when he discovered, about a year ago, that his grandfather was a Jew, he felt it was ironic. He says that his wife and children laughed when they heard about it. He told Reform Judaism magazine in the fall of 2003, "I guess things come full circle." In an interview with the Detroit Jewish News, he said that he was surprised at the number of Jews in his synagogue who had told him similar stories, and concluded "It's an American story."

Boarding-school childhood
Richard, the father of John and Cameron Kerry, was the youngest of Frederick and Ida's three children. He was born and grew up in Massachusetts, was an U.S. Army Air Corps pilot during World War II, and a lawyer and diplomat in the American foreign service. His wife, Rosemary, nee Forbes, was born in France. Her father was a wealthy banker, she grew up in France and England. One of her ancestors, John Winthrop, was one of the founders of the city of Boston.
Richard Kerry didn't tell his children anything about his father. At the end of the 1990s, after he fell ill with cancer, he told John that Frederick had committed suicide, but he didn't tell him about his grandfather's Jewish origins. Kerry found out from a newspaper article researched by The Boston Globe. It isn't clear whether Richard knew and hid the information from his children, or actually didn't know anything about his father's origins. Richard died in 2000 at the age of 85. His wife, Rosemary, died two years later at the age of 89.
Peggy is the eldest of Richard and Rosemary's four children and today works with the U.S. delegation to the UN in New York, as a liaison officer with non-governmental organizations. John is the second child. Diana, who lives in Manchester, Massachusetts, is a teacher who has taught in Boston, Iran, Thailand and Indonesia. Cameron is the youngest. He was born in Washington and grew up in Oslo and Germany, where their father was send by the foreign service, and attended private boarding schools in Switzerland and in New Hampshire. He received his bachelor's degree from Harvard, and went on to study law at Boston College Law School - like his brother.
Although the children of the family studied in boarding schools while their father roamed the world as part of his work, Peggy says in a phone interview from New York that they were a close family. Their sister Diana, in a conversation by phone from her home in Massachusetts, says that because they weren't together much, every time the family members did meet, they enjoyed their time - whether spending vacations together or visiting relatives, and her brothers loved doing sports like sailing and skiing together.
Peggy Kerry confirms that her parents were very accepting of Cameron's conversion. "It wasn't that they didn't care, our parents left us the decisions." She says that she had no problem with it, either. She believes that every child can do what he thinks is right, and adds that in the U.S. many people change their religion. Diana Kerry says that her mother agreed to raise her children as Catholics although she herself was an Episcopalian, so that this idea was not new to the family.
Cameron Kerry is quite active as a Jew. "My wife goes to Temple Israel in Boston whenever she can. I pray there on Friday evenings. I celebrate the High Holy Days, I fast on Yom Kippur. We celebrate the Passover seder with my wife's family, at our home the first night and at my brother-in-law's, the second."
Asked if his older brother had ever come to a seder, Cameron says that John knows what it is, and that he has celebrated it with Jewish families, but not in his brother's home.
Does Judaism mean for you as a convert a different way of thinking?
"It has impacts, but I can't say how. For me it was natural, it's part of family life. My two daughters, aged 17 and 13, have a strong sense of Jewish identity. One is the head of the Jewish Student Union in her high school, the other is appearing in `The Sound of Music' at her school tonight as the Mother Abbess. The costume made for her includes a chasuble with a cross on it, but she has substituted her tallit [prayer shawl]."
Do you advise your brother on Israel and the Middle East?
"John has his own policy in these matters. I am not his adviser for Israel and the Middle East, although I can help and it is very fascinating for me. He visited Israel many times after he was elected to the Senate in 1984, and met many leaders. I have never visited Israel. When my daughters were young I didn't want to travel far away."
Let others decide
Asked what he thinks about the separation fence, Cameron Kerry says that he prefers to let John's positions speak for themselves. As to the question of whether it would be better for the State of Israel and for American Jews if Senator Joseph Lieberman, who is Jewish, were the Democratic candidate, the younger Kerry says he prefers not to reply, and that other people should decide.
Will John Kerry will be a president who is sympathetic to Israel?
"He will make the world a safer place."
Will the fact that the brother of the Democratic candidate for president is a Jew affect the Jewish vote? Diana Kerry thinks it won't. She says that the American Jewish community will examine John's abilities and his opinions, adding that her younger brother's religion will not affect the policies of her older brother.
The decline in anti-Semitism and the fact that John Kerry's brother has no job in the administration make his Jewishness a "non-issue," says Stuart Eisenstadt, deputy secretary of the U.S. treasury in the Clinton administration. He explains that people make their decisions according to the candidate and not according to who his brother is.
Jack Rosen, president of the American Jewish Congress, says in a phone interview from New York that Cameron's Jewishness won't hurt his brother, but John Kerry will have to deal with President George W. Bush's credentials. According to Rosen, the question of Kerry's Jewish family connections will be secondary, and he adds that the incumbent president has a record in areas related to Israel - he has raised the level of support for it, and for that reason Kerry's positions on these issues will be more relevant than his brother's Jewishness.
Prof. Eytan Gilboa of the department of political studies at Bar-Ilan University believes that Cameron Kerry's Jewishness, as well as the Jewish roots of the Kerry family, will be of importance in the election campaign.
"If [President George W.] Bush could find Jewish roots, he would use them, too," says Gilboa. "The wife of candidate Howard Dean is Jewish, Wesley Clark has a Jewish grandfather, and they all considered Judaism a good sales pitch. In these elections there is a tremendous battle for every vote, after the last elections were decided by a few hundred votes. Although the Jews constitute only 2 percent of the population, according to the myth, Jewish capital constitutes half of the contributions to the Democrats. The Jews also vote in very high numbers, about 90 percent of the vote, as opposed to an overall voting rate of about 50 percent. The Republican Party also wants Jewish capital and the Jewish vote.
"In the last presidential elections, about 20 percent of the Jews voted for Bush. At his headquarters they are hoping for a Jewish vote of 30 percent. The competition for Jewish capital and the Jewish vote will be more significant this time. That is why candidates are emphasizing their Jewish roots."
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Who's afraid of Mordechai Vanunu?

By Yossi Melman
In June 1976, after a chance conversation with a friend who was employed at the nuclear reactor in Dimona and had good things to say about his place of work, Mordechai Vanunu decided to try his luck there. On the advice of his friend, he scoured the want ads in the papers for one for workers at the Dimona Nuclear Research Center, as it is officially called (or, according to the Hebrew acronym, Kamag), and when he found such an ad, he submitted an application. He was invited for a preliminary meeting, followed by a more comprehensive interview and a security-clearance process, which he passed successfully. A month later, he was informed that he had been hired. The document approving his entry into a preliminary course was signed by Aryeh Felman, then the head of the security screening department in the Shin Bet security service.
Vanunu's preparatory employment course lasted two months. It was an accelerated program in which newcomers were taught basic terms in English, math and physics, and given an introduction to the world of nuclear reactors. In his testimony in Israeli courts after revealing the secrets of the Dimona reactor to the Britain's Sunday Times, Vanunu said: "At the end of the course we had an exam. The majority passed. But a few people were rejected, one for a drugs background, another because he had left-wing relatives, things like that."
Vanunu wasn't rejected. He was accepted for a training course at the nuclear plant. The fact that he was hired was the first in a series of security blunders that characterized the affair from the outset. It now emerges that Vanunu had applied for a job at the Shin Bet a few years earlier, but was rejected on grounds of incompatibility. His application form and the reasons for the rejection appeared in his personal file at the Dimona facility. But despite this, the security officer there, Zvi K., authorized his employment without bothering to check the matter with the Shin Bet.
In 1980, Zvi K. was promoted to director of personnel at the reactor. He was replaced as security officer by Yehiel K., who had completed a tour of duty as security officer of the Defense Ministry mission in the United States. Yehiel K. held the post for seven years, until October 6, 1987 - the formative years of the affair. In 1987 he was appointed internal comptroller of the Dimona facility; he retired two years ago.
The division of power and responsibility for protecting the nuclear reactor were not precisely established or formalized in that period. The security officer received his salary from the Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC), which is responsible, among other things, for the facility. Professionally, the security officer is accountable to the chief security officer in the Defense Ministry (known by the Hebrew acronym Malmab), at the time Chaim Carmon (???). He also receives instructions from several units of the Shin Bet: The protective security department, which in the Vanunu period was run by Savinoam Avivi, is supposed to provide the security officer with professional guidance. The security screening unit carries out the reliability tests and background checks of candidates for jobs in plants under the auspices of the defense establishment or other highly sensitive places. The counterespionage and political subversion branch has the task of supervising, collecting information and thwarting subversive activity by both foreigners (including diplomats) and Israeli Jews. (A different Shin Bet unit, the Arab Affairs Department, deals with political subversion by Arab citizens of Israel.) The head of the counterespionage branch from 1981 to 1985 was Peleg Radai.
All these individuals bear responsibility, to one degree or another, for the security blunders in the Vanunu affair. The junior technician from Be'er Sheva, one of 10 siblings in a family that emigrated from Morocco in 1963, succeeded in fooling everyone. This is the secret that hasn't yet been told in the affair: the story of the security fiasco that made it possible for Vanunu to do what he did, and the story of the subsequent attempts at cover-up, whitewashing and protection of senior figures in the defense establishment, who were bent on divesting themselves of responsibility for the failure.
What makes Horev run?
The 18-year prison term to which Vanunu was sentenced - which will end on April 21 - is almost exactly the same period as that in which Yehiel Horev has served as chief of internal security in the defense establishment. Vanunu's success in divulging Israel's nuclear secrets to The Sunday Times - which ran the story on October 5, 1986, headlined "Inside Dimona, Israel's nuclear bomb factory" - hastened Horev's appointment to the high-ranking post, and since then he has viewed himself as the guardian of the secrets of the nuclear reactor in Dimona. Fortunately for Horev, in the critical period when Vanunu was fired and went abroad, he was on study leave at the National Security College. However, he was involved in the affair before that, as deputy chief of security at the Defense Ministry, and also after Vanunu's abduction and arrest, as a member of an investigative commission.
Yehiel Horev (Zilberman) was born in Tel Aviv in 1944, and at an early age moved to Kibbutz Hulata, in Upper Galilee. He did his army service in the Golani infantry brigade, reaching the rank of lieutenant. In the course of his reserve service, in the Armored Corps, he was promoted to the rank of major. At the end of the 1960s he took part in an Israel Defense Forces mission that trained the army of Congo. Returning to Israel in 1969, he was recruited as a security officer in an IAEC unit in the center of the country.
In 1975, Horev was promoted and made responsible for the physical protection department in the Defense Ministry. From the latter's headquarters at the Defense Ministry compound in Tel Aviv, he oversaw the protection of all the facilities, sites and plants of the defense establishment. The most closely watched "jewels in the defense crown" were the nuclear facility in Dimona and the Biological Institute at Nes Ziona, south of Tel Aviv, where, according to foreign reports, Israel's nonconventional weapons (nuclear, biological, chemical) are manufactured. The physical protection department is responsible for the connection with the security officers of the plants and for issuing their instructions, and its task is to oversee and ensure that they are doing their work properly.
Even at this early stage, the basic traits that characterize Horev to this day were noticeable: devotion to duty alongside blandness, pettiness and acute suspiciousness, but also personal integrity and a strong desire to expose corruption and failures, as well as a penchant for vengefulness. The affairs of the secrets that leaked from the two places considered Horev's holiest sites - the Biological Institute, which produced a senior spy in the person of Prof. Marcus Klingberg, and the Dimona nuclear plant, about which secret information was revealed through Mordechai Vanunu - were formative events in the development of his world view.
Shortly after taking office as chief of securityat the Defense Ministry, Horev began to take punitive measures to hobble Vanunu. He is responsible for the harsh conditions in which Vanunu was held, which included years in solitary confinement, and the sharp limitations on the number of visitors he could have. A few years ago, Horev removed from his office Amiram Levine, a senior official in the department of special affairs and information protection. In Horev's view, Levine displayed carelessness by not censoring properly the transcripts from the Vanunu trial that the Supreme Court allowed to be published.
Today, after failing to persuade the political echelon to place Vanunu under administrative detention (arrest without trial) even after he completes his prison term, Horev is fighting a rearguard battle to prevent Vanunu from leaving Israel and to place him under supervision and restrictions that will be tantamount to house arrest. Horev has always been considered the strictest of all the security chiefs in Israel, especially in regard to the protection of institutions such as the Dimona facility and the Biological Institute. He is apprehensive that if Vanunu goes abroad, he will continue to be a nuisance by stimulating the public debate over Israel's nuclear policy and the nuclear weapons he says Israel possesses.
A good many experts, both in the Shin Bet and the IAEC, take issue with Horev's unrelentingly rigorous approach. According to these experts, who are afraid to be identified by name, Horev, by imposing restrictions on Vanunu, will achieve the exact opposite of his intention, as international attention will then be focused on Vanunu and on Israel's nuclear secrets. Moreover, many people wonder what Vanunu could possibly reveal beyond what he already has. What additional secrets could be known to Vanunu, who for nine years worked as a junior technician and was a shift manager at the nuclear plant in Dimona, and for nearly 20 years has had no contact with his former place of work?
The fact is that almost everything relating to the Vanunu affair has been made public. The secrets of the Dimona reactor, including its units and structure, were published, in the wake of Vanunu's information, by The Sunday Times. Also known are the circumstances of Vanunu's abduction in Rome in an operation mounted by the Mossad espionage agency, which was closely overseen by Shabtai Shavit, then the deputy chief of the Mossad. Even the identity of "Cindy," the Mossad agent who lured Vanunu to fly with her from his place of hiding in London to the apartment of her "sister, the journalist," in Rome, where she was supposed to grant him sexual favors, was exposed in the international press: Cheryl Hanin Bentov.
The feeling, then, is that all the hyperactivity being displayed by Horev and those who support his approach is intended only to divert attention from what has not yet been revealed: the security blunders and their cover-ups. This is also apparently the reason that all the senior officials who were responsible for the blunders refused to respond or be interviewed for this article.
Formative resolutions
Mordechai Vanunu attended Beit Yaakov, a religious elementary school run by the ultra-Orthodox Agudat Israel movement. He went on to Ohalei Shlomo, a high-school yeshiva, but dropped out and entered the IDF at the age of 17. He served in the Engineering Corps and reached the rank of first sergeant. In 1973, he enrolled for a preparatory program at Tel Aviv University and excelled in mathematics and physics. However, extended reserve duty in the 1973 Yom Kippur War combined with a shortage of funds forced him to break off his studies and return to his parents' home in Be'er Sheva. These were the circumstances that prompted him to look for a job with the Shin Bet and then with the Dimona nuclear facility.
On January 1, 1977, Vanunu joined one of the special buses that took employees from Be'er Sheva to the reactor every day and passed through the gates of Israel's most secret plant. The new employees were taken to the facility's school, where they signed a pledge of secrecy and undertook not to talk to anyone about their work. Vanunu then received his security pass, whose number was 9657-8. He underwent a medical check and was found fit, and was sent to take another course, this one more advanced, in nuclear physics. This course placed emphasis on uranium and radioactivity.
For the next 10 weeks, the new employees went through another round of training for their work at the reactor. The training period concluded at the end of June 1977, and Vanunu and his colleagues were formally admitted to the "holy of holies" of Israel's security religion. Vanunu received another security pass, numbered 320, which gave him entry to "Machon [Institute] 2" where, according to what he told the Times, nuclear weapons are manufactured. He was also assigned a locker (No. 3) for his personal effects.
Most of his work was on the night shift in the control rooms of Machon 2, from 11:30 P.M. until 8 A.M. After the first flush of excitement wore off, Vanunu found the work boring and monotonous. In the summer of 1980, after returning from a trip abroad, he left his rented apartment in Dimona and for $20,000, including his savings and funds from his siblings, bought a small flat near Ben-Gurion University (BGU) of the Negev in Be'er Sheva. Around this time he also made two resolutions that would shape his life: to attend university and to keep a personal diary.
After initially enrolling to study economics, he changed his mind and opted for geography and philosophy. According to his brother Meir, Mordechai began delving deeply into the writings of classical philosophers and gulped them all down - from Aristotle to Spinoza, and from Kant and Descartes to the moderns such as Kierkegaard, Nietzsche and Sartre. He became familiar with abstract thought, which emphasizes the self, the individual and his responsibility. The information about his readings in philosophy is contained in his diary, in which he always made the entries at night, during the long hours of his boring shift at the nuclear facility.
In the eyes of his employers, Vanunu was an outstanding employee during his first five years of work at the plant. There were no complaints against him or reports about unusual behavior. Beneath the surface, though, Vanunu began to change.
"His political world view was also shaped at the university," says Meir Vanunu. In his youth, Mordechai had identified with the extreme right and saw nothing amiss with the racist ideas of Rabbi Meir Kahane and his Kach movement, but he now embarked on a long journey that led him to the political center and finally to the extreme left. He was elected to the student council on the ticket of Campus, a Jewish-Arab students' organization, was active in promoting the rights of Arab students, took part in demonstrations against the war in Lebanon and the occupation, and submitted a request to join the students' association of Rakah, the Communist Party.
In the summer of 1982, when he was called up for reserve duty at the height of the Lebanon War, Vanunu, who objected to the war's goals, refused to serve in field tasks in his Engineering Corps unit, preferring instead to do kitchen duty. In the next two years he became known on campus as a radical in terms of his world view and as an eccentric in terms of his behavior. He was photographed, for example, dancing naked at a campus party and was a nude model for art students. It turns out that all this activity was known to the security officials at the Dimona reactor.
Drift to the left
Yehiel K., who was the Dimona reactor's security officer in those years, created for himself - in the plant and at BGU (where a number of Dimona employees at the nuclear facility were studying, teaching or doing research) - a network of "loyalists" whose task was to report unusual occurrences. To this end he also made use of the good working relations he developed with the university's security officer, Zvi Schwartz.
In 1982, reports started coming in to Yehiel K. from Schwartz and others about Vanunu's "deviant" behavior on campus: his participation in demonstrations against the Lebanon War, his connections with Arab students, his nude dancing at the party and his pronouncements against Israel's nuclear policy. At the Dimona facility, whose staff has a highly developed security sense, any and all evidence of unusual behavior, however minor, is supposed to receive immediate and thorough treatment.
Indeed, as soon as the reports started coming in, Yehiel K. felt that there was a "real problem" and took action at a number of levels. First, he reported the matter to the personnel director at the nuclear plant, Zvi K., the former security officer, and also to the director general of the reactor facility, Avraham (Roberto) Saroussi. In addition, Yehiel K. sent reports on the subject to the Defense Ministry security chief, Chaim Carmon, and to the professional unit in the Shin Bet - the Jewish Department in the counter-espionage branch - and kept copies of all the reports in his office.
Vanunu thus became a "checkee" - someone who had to be checked and placed under supervision. According to the instructions and the procedures in the defense establishment, once an employee becomes a "checkee," his employers are barred from taking any action against him without the authorization of the security officials, so that they can keep him under tabs without arousing his suspicion. But at the Dimona plant people ignored the instructions and continued to treat Vanunu as an outstanding worker. They even sent him to an advanced course for senior staff. This period saw several waves of dismissals at the reactor, due to budget cuts. Accordingly, Yehiel K. sent Zvi K. and Avraham Saroussi a list of employees who must under no circumstances be laid off without his prior approval. One of the names on the list was Mordechai Vanunu.
The counterespionage branch also issued a directive not to fire Vanunu. For Yehiel K. this was superfluous, as he had already issued such an instruction. At one stage, Peleg Radai, head of counterespionage, convened a special meeting in which it was decided to call Vanunu in for questioning. On the same occasion it was also decided to recruit Vanunu as a department informer to win his loyalty, but mainly "to put him into a framework" in order to keep him under close watch.
The mission was assigned to Avraham B., head of the unit in the Jewish Department that dealt with subversion by the extreme left. Avraham B. and his immediate superior, Yisrael G., the head of that department, met with Vanunu at least twice. Avraham B. asked Vanunu about his political activity and for the names of the friends he had met with, and sought information about the parlor talks in which Vanunu had taken part and about his membership in various organizations. Mainly, though, he wanted to know whether Vanunu had told any of his associates in the political groups, and especially the Arab students, about his job.
Vanunu, who was tense and nervous at the meetings, replied in great detail to all the questions. He said that none of his friends in the political groups knew that he worked at the Dimona facility, even though he had spoken out against Israel's nuclear policy. He explained his deep political involvement as stemming from his opposition to the war in Lebanon. Vanunu was warned that he had signed a secrecy pledge and that he had to report any attempts to make contact with him to the reactor's security officer. Avraham B. advised Vanunu to break off his relations with the Arab students and stay away from them, hinting that otherwise Vanunu's advancement at work was liable to be affected.
At the conclusion of each meeting, Avraham B. drew up a report describing the stages of Vanunu's slide into the radical-left organizations. However, the language of the reports was not especially acute. Nor did Avraham B. recommend taking immediate action against Vanunu. There are three versions about one important issue: Was it suggested that Vanunu become a paid informer? One version is that the attempt to recruit Vanunu as an informer for the department had failed. Vanunu simply refused to cooperate. According to a different version, Vanunu did cooperate and agreed to report on his friends, but his handlers afterward broke off the connection with him because his reports were considered unreliable. In retrospect, former Shin Bet officials say that the decision to break off the connection with Vanunu was a mistake and that the organization should have continued to run him "on empty" and reward him for his reports, in order to maintain close contact with him. The third version is that no one suggested he become an informer.
Contrary to instructions
Even before he received the first reports about Vanunu, Chaim Carmon, the chief security officer in the Defense Ministry, wasn't pleased with the work of Yehiel K. Carmon persuaded the director general of the Defense Ministry, Avraham Maron, and then Maron's successor, David Ivri, and the chief of the Shin Bet, Avraham Shalom, to use their influence with the director general of the IAEC, Uzi Eilam, to replace Yehiel K. However, Eilam refused. He was satisfied with Yehiel K.'s work and viewed the requests of Carmon and the Defense Ministry as little more than a caprice attributable to the "wars of the bureaucrats." Seeing no other choice, Carmon decided to ask his deputy, Yehiel Horev, to act as a kind of "overseer" of security at the reactor and Yehiel K.
Carmon was unable to find a common language with Peleg Radai, the head of the Shin Bet's counter-espionage and subversion branch. In retrospect, he believed that Radai had been wholly preoccupied with the internal struggle that had been going on in the Shin Bet since April 1984. That month, two Palestinian terrorists who had been taken captive in an operation to rescue the passengers of the hijacked No. 300 bus, were killed on orders of the Shin Bet chief, Avraham Shalom.
Shalom then ordered his aides to obscure, cover up and whitewash the deed and even to lie to a number of commissions that were established to investigate the episode. Radai, together with two other senior Shin Bet officials, Reuven Hazak and Rafi Malka, demanded Shalom's resignation.
As a result, Carmon decided to bypass Radai and directly contacted the head of the Shin Bet himself. However, Avraham Shalom, too, was completely absorbed in the battle against the "rebels," whom he perceived as simply wanting to dump him in order to bring about the appointment of Reuven Hazak, his deputy.
In the summer of 1985, the heads of the personnel department at the reactor called in Vanunu for a talk. Contrary to the instructions of Yehiel K., Carmon and Radai not to take any action against Vanunu without their authorization, they informed the technician that he was going to be transferred from Machon 2 to a different unit. Vanunu, who already knew that he was being targeted by the defense establishment and suspected that the transfer was politically motivated, reacted angrily. He made remarks along the lines of, "You're out to get me. You want to screw me. If you don't want me to work here, then fine, I'm ready to quit."
The personnel executives jumped at the suggestion and together with Vanunu arranged for his name to be included on the next list of 100 employees who were being let go. The decision was approved by both Zvi K., the personnel director, and the reactor's director general, Avraham Saroussi. It was only after Vanunu's name was placed on the list that Yehiel K. received a report that the technician had been fired - contrary to his instructions.
In October 1985, the three Shin Bet "rebels" were suspended and afterward resigned from the security service. Mordechai Vanunu's contract at the nuclear facility also concluded that month. Shortly afterward, Yehiel K. received a report that Vanunu had sold his apartment in Be'er Sheva and his old car and was planning to leave the country. Yehiel K. reported this immediately to Carmon, whose response surprised him: "Cancel his security clearance." Yehiel K. replied: "You're confused. His security clearance was long since revoked. He doesn't work for us any more. Now the problem is his trip abroad."
Carmon thereupon proposed to the Shin Bet that Vanunu be "BC-ed" - jargon based on "Border Control," meaning to enter a person's name into the computers of the Border Control officers and thus keep tabs on his every departure from and entry into the country. Carmon's suggestion was mentioned in passing at a meeting of the counter-espionage branch and not discussed further. Afterward, Carmon was even prepared to declare Vanunu insane to prevent him from leaving the country, but no serious discussion was held about that idea, either.
The cover-up
In 1984, shortly after Carmon asked him to oversee Yehiel K. and the Dimona facility, Yehiel Horev went on leave to study at the National Security College. Vanunu was fired in October 1985 and received severance pay for his nine years of work at the plant. He sold his car and his apartment and that December, bought a cheap one-way ticket to Bangkok. Seemingly, he was one more young Israeli going on a soul-searching quest in the Far East. Vanunu, though, had other plans, albeit as yet undefined. In his luggage, he hid two rolls of film that he had shot secretly at various places in the reactor during his employment there. In Thailand he visited a Buddhist monastery, which made such a powerful impression on him that he contemplated a conversion to Buddhism. He then changed his plans and went to Sydney, Australia. There he met an Anglican priest named John McKnight and joined his small church.
Vanunu converted to Christianity, conducted soulful talks with the members of the congregation and became friends with Oscar Guerrero, who introduced himself as an occasional journalist. Vanunu told him about his work at the reactor and about the photographs he had taken there. Guerrero, who saw a possible lucrative deal in the making, enthusiastically persuaded Vanunu to offer his story to the media. Together they made the rounds, but no one, not Australian papers and not Newsweek magazine, believed them, until finally The Sunday Times decided that the story was worth checking out.
After about two years at the National Security College, Horev resumed his work in the Defense Ministry. By coincidence, he returned to work on the very day that the defense establishment learned that Vanunu was going to publish his story in The Times. The report came from the Mossad, which was then engaged in an operation aimed at finding and capturing Vanunu.
Carmon, the chief securityofficer in the Defense Ministry, happened to be abroad at the time, and Horev, his deputy, was appointed to head an interdepartmental team to deal with the case, with representatives of the Shin Bet and the Mossad. After Vanunu was abducted in Rome and brought back to Israel by sea, Horev was appointed by Carmon to take part in a committee set up to examine the course of events, together with Avner Barnea, then head of the training division of the Shin Bet. From the point of view of the internal security chief and the Shin Bet, the establishment of the committee was tantamount to going through the motions, something like letting the cat guard the cream.
Neither of the two organizations, not to mention their chiefs, wanted any sort of in-depth investigation. Carmon hoped that Horev, his deputy and protege, would not issue a sharp report against him. Over the years it became clear to Barnea that Horev himself, on the instructions of Carmon, was involved in the issue of security at the reactor and thus, ostensibly, due to a conflict of interest, should not have been a member of the committee.
They met with Yehiel K., the Dimona plant's security officer, in his office at the facility. They questioned him very briefly, for only a few minutes, and Horev went on to other matters at the reactor. They never asked Yehiel K. for the documents, charts or correspondence in his possession. Yehiel K., for his part, never offered them.
The watered-down report they issued mentioned flaws that had been discovered, but termed them structural flaws. The committee found that there had been poor communication between the various security branches, and recommended improved liaison between the Shin Bet, the nuclear facility and the chief security officer. In addition the committee recommended improving the security arrangements at the Dimona plant and to conduct random checks. Even though the report was not exactly drafted in a clear manner, it is evident from it that the way all the elements in this affair operated, as one person involved defined it, was "one big disgrace. Everyone was consumed by blindness and fell asleep on the job - they simply didn't do anything and behaved like kids , not like professionals who are expected to act in a thorough way, with responsibility and careful consideration."
The only individual singled out for having possibly been negligent was Yehiel K., who was said not to have complied with the agreements about not firing Vanunu. Katz never saw the report, but years later, in Shin Bet training courses on protective security, he was noted as having acted properly.
Whatever became of ...?
At the end of 1985, with the No. 300 bus affair at its height - though still kept secret from the public - the Shin Bet chief, Avraham Shalom, neutralized Peleg Radai, and the counterespionage and political subversion branch was effectively placed in the hands of Radai's deputy, Aharon G. Shortly afterward, Radai and his two fellow "rebels" left the Shin Bet and established Shafran, a private security company.
Yehiel K. had asked to switch jobs at the beginning of 1985, long before Vanunu was fired. His request was granted only after Avraham Saroussi resigned as director general of the Dimona facility and was replaced by Giora Amir. On the day Yehiel K. left his post as security officer, October 6, 1986, Vanunu was tied up in a small cabin on a vessel that was plying the waters of the Mediterranean en route to Israel. Yehiel K. became internal comptroller of the reactor.
Zvi K. retired from the Dimona plant about five years ago, but was occasionally employed as a consultant to the facility. The director general, Avraham S., retired a few years ago, and Avner B. left the Shin Bet in 1993 and became a businessman.
Carmon remained in the Defense Ministry for a few more years and then retired. Some time later, Horev told friends in the ministry that if it had not been for him, Carmon would have been removed from his post long before. Instead, Horev said, he and others persuaded Carmon to accept the rank of deputy director general of the Defense Ministry with a bombastic title referring to responsibility for three departments: external relations, defense aid and internal security.
Carmon was seemingly Horev's superior in this capacity, but in practice Horev refused to accept this and began gradually to entrench his status as chief security officer of the Defense Ministry. A few years ago, he requested that the head of the Shin Bet transfer to him the authority to appoint security officers, by means of statutory regulations that would have effectively made his office the fourth official intelligence branch in Israel, together with the Mossad, Military Intelligence and the Shin Bet. Only the determined opposition of the attorney general, Elyakim Rubinstein, prevented this development.
As for the political level, it showed little interest in the failure. The prime minister at the time, Shimon Peres, prided himself on the Mossad's success in capturing Vanunu and bringing him to Israel. "I was informed that everything that had to be examined was examined and that all the conclusions were drawn and the lessons gleaned," Peres told Haaretz, through his press officer, in response.
The making of a chief security officer
Chaim Carmon, a Holocaust survivor, immigrated to this country in 1946, worked in the diamond industry and joined Shai, the information service of the Haganah, the pre-state defense force. In the War of Independence he served as a sapper in the Kiryati Brigade. After his discharge, he joined the Shin Bet. For a few years he was the bodyguard of the prime minister, David Ben-Gurion. In 1953, when Ben-Gurion resigned and moved to Kibbutz Sde Boker, in the Negev, Carmon returned to the investigations unit at Shin Bet headquarters near the flea market in Jaffa.
In 1954, a disagreement erupted over which body would be responsible for internal security in the Defense Ministry: the field security section of Military Intelligence, or the Shin Bet. The Shin Bet got the nod and Avraham Niv was appointed security officer of the Defense Ministry, with Carmon named as his aide. A year later, Niv resigned and Carmon became the ministry's security officer.
Carmon held the post for nearly 10 years, which turned out to be an era of exciting events. With the backing of the prime minister and defense minister, David Ben-Gurion, his protege, Shimon Peres - first as director general of the Defense Ministry and then as the deputy minister - turned the ministry into something like a state within a state. In this period, to the chagrin of the foreign minister, Golda Meir, secret ties were forged that were translated into arms sales and purchases of security equipment from Germany. The defense industries - Israel Aircraft Industries, Israel Military Industries and Rafael (Israel Arms Development Authority) - enjoyed tremendous momentum, and clandestine talks in Paris evolved into a joint plan, with the French and the British, to attack Egypt in October 1956, and a year later produced agreements with France for the purchase of a nuclear reactor, including know-how, equipment and technology.
Carmon, by virtue of his position, took part in all these events and was responsible for keeping the secrets. He was professionally answerable to the protective security branch of the Shin Bet, headed by Binyamin Blumberg. At the order of Shimon Peres, who wanted, among other aims, to "compartmentalize" Isser Harel, the head of the Mossad, and not make him privy to the secret of the reactor at Dimona, a special unit was established in the Defense Ministry to guard that reactor as well as the research reactor that was built at the same time in Nahal Sorek. The unit went through a number of incarnations and names, being known variously as "Special Projects" and the "Office of Special Assignments" and later as Lakam, an acronym for "Science Liaison Bureau."
The unit's mission was to safeguard the construction of the two reactors, in 1960-61, and afterward to protect them, ensure that the secrets didn't leak out, check the reliability of the staff, and be involved in the purchase of the equipment and the materials (including uranium) for their activation.
During the split in the ruling Mapai party (the precursor of Labor) in the 1960s and the subsequent establishment of the Rafi party by Ben-Gurion and his supporters, Peres and Moshe Dayan, Carmon, who to this day sees himself as a "Ben-Gurionist," joined the breakaway group. This is probably why he was sent into "exile" as part of the Defense Ministry mission to the United States. When he returned to Israel, he once more held positions in the ministry's protection and security system. Following the Yom Kippur War and in the wake of structural changes in the ministry, he became head of security not only in the ministry but throughout the defense establishment, and thus was born the Hebrew acronym "Malab" (chief of security in the Defense Ministry).
Carmon's superior, Blumberg, who never gave an interview and whose photograph never appeared in the press, actually wore three hats: He held the status of the head of a branch in the Shin Bet, but was also the chief security officer of the Defense Ministry and, in particular, was head of Lakam. At the end of the 1970s, following the Likud's rise to power, the defense minister, Ezer Weizman, and his deputy, Mordechai Zippori, decided to get rid of Blumberg. Rumors reached them that Blumberg was closely connected with the Labor Party establishment, that there were suspicions of financial irregularities as a result of transactions related to purchase of materials and equipment for the Dimona reactor and for the defense industries, and that money had been transferred to secret funds, which might also be used for political purposes.
Blumberg preempted them. He went to the prime minister, Menachem Begin, and asked for his intercession. Begin ruled that Blumberg would stay. However, two years later, after Ariel Sharon became defense minister, Blumberg was forced out. He was succeeded by Rafi Eitan as head of Lakam. Eitan, too, held two positions. Since 1978 he had been the prime minister's adviser on the war against terrorism and was answerable to Begin. As head of Lakam, he was answerable to the defense minister. Eitan was forced to resign in the wake of the eruption in November 1985 of the Jonathan Pollard affair (an intelligence officer in the U.S. Navy, Pollard was run as a spy by Lakam for a year and a half).
Eitan's dual role gave Chaim Carmon more room for maneuver, and his position as chief security officer of the Defense Ministry, combined with his seniority, made Carmon one of the strongest, most influential and most feared officials in the defense establishment. His status was further enhanced by the relations of trust he cultivated with the head of the Shin Bet at the time, Avraham Shalom. The two knew each other from the period in which Carmon worked for the Shin Bet's protection unit, whose staff were occasionally integrated into missions of the operations unit headed by Shalom. The two were on excellent terms and Carmon often took part, by virtue of his position, in meetings of the heads of branches and directors of units in the Shin Bet.

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Netanyahu provisionally supports Gaza plan
By Mazal Mualem, Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondents
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's associates Sunday expressed satisfaction with statements by Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, after he offered provisional support for the prime minister's disengagement plan.
Netanyahu was speaking at a meeting of Likud ministers and deputy ministers that Sharon convened.
Sharon's associates claimed that the conditions set by Netanyahu in exchange for his support of the disengagement plan, could be met. By contrast, a number of Likud ministers continue to oppose Sharon's separation plan. These include: Uzi Landau, Limor Livnat, Yisrael Katz, Tzachi Hanegbi, Limor Livnat, Dan Naveh, Natan Sharansky and Meir Sheetrit.
"Now that the train has already left the station there is no choice but to support the prime minister and present him with demands and conditions" for the withdrawal, Netanyahu told his Likud colleagues. "The public doesn't want to feel it has been suckered. It wants something in exchange for concessions.
Netanyahu conditioned his support for the separation plan on a U.S. announcement rejecting a right of return to Israel for Palestinian refugees. He said his support for Sharon's plan depended on the completion of the separation fence around West Bank settlement blocs. Netanyahu also demanded that security arrangements be formulated for the day after Israel leaves the Gaza Strip.
Netanyahu's statements did not surprise the prime minister. In fact, senior Likud politicians claimed Sunday that the conditions set forth by Netanyahu had been coordinated in advance with Sharon's office.
Likud Minister without portfolio Uzi Landau told reporters Sunday that Netanyahu's provisional support for Sharon's plan disappointed him. "I wanted to see him [Netanyahu] leading a movement" in opposition to the plan, Landau said. By Landau's count, Sharon's plan lacks support of a majority of cabinet members at this stage.
Agriculture and Rural Development Minister Yisrael Katz said after the meeting: "I have to say that this [Netanyahu's] approach is unacceptable in my view you can't say that the only thing left to do is to limit the damage."
Opening Sunday's Likud meeting, Sharon outlined the withdrawal alternative which he believes is Israel's best option - a pull-out from the entire Gaza Strip, apart from the Philadelphi road on the Egyptian border near Rafah, and a limited dismantling of some West Bank settlements.
Expounding on his conditions at Sunday's Likud meeting, Netanyahu said all border crossings - air, sea, and land - should remain under Israeli control until a final status is worked out with the Palestinians. He insisted the separation fence must wrap around the settlement town of Ariel, Route 443, Ma'aleh Adumim, Gush Etzion and other settlement blocs. Until the fence protects these areas, Netanyahu said, "Israel should not withdraw from one centimeter of the Gaza Strip."
When Netanyahu spoke about "not rewarding terror," Industry and Trade Minister Ehud Olmert interrupted. "You always bring up that nonsense," Olmert declared, challenging Netanyahu. "I want to remind you that after the Western Wall Tunnel events [in 1996] you traveled to Washington, embraced Arafat, and said you had found a friend."
Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom will meet on Monday in Washington with top U.S. officials and hear their response to the separation plan.

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Analysis / Netanyahu's `yes, but' approach
By Yossi Verter
Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's "yes and no" speech yesterday at the Likud Party meeting came as no surprise to cabinet ministers who oppose Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's separation plan. During the 13 months of the government's operation, Netanyahu has studiously refrained from taking any move that could be interpreted as a challenge to Sharon's policy directives.
In fact a kind of unholy alliance has taken hold between the two men - Sharon has provided absolute support for Netanyahu's economic policies, and the finance minister has displayed silent loyalty to Sharon on the diplomatic-political track. And this alliance has become perhaps the sturdiest pillar of stability for the Sharon government.
It will take more than a Gaza pullout to force Netanyahu to risk a full frontal clash with Sharon. After all, the Gaza pullout is backed by a strong public majority, and also by a majority of Likud members.
Should Sharon return from his trip to the U.S. with Bush administration consent to conditions imposed on the Gaza pullout, Netanyahu will publicize this linkage as a personal triumph. He will claim it was only his tough talk with the Americans that saved Israel from an unconditional flight from Gaza.
On the other hand, should Sharon come back from the U.S. empty-handed, it will be seen as Sharon's failure alone.
So, as things are now stacked up, Netanyahu reaps a double profit. One the one hand, he gets credit for being loyal to Sharon. On the other hand, Sharon's status is likely to take a beating in various public sectors, and somebody stands to gain from it.
It can be assumed that deep in his heart Netanyahu will not mourn should Sharon ram through the government approval for a Gaza withdrawal, or even a withdrawal from Gaza and some West Bank areas. During his term as finance minister, Netanyahu has learned a thing or two about the connection between the peace process and economic prosperity.
Yesterday, none of Netanyahu's Likud colleagues had a single good thing to say about him. Opponents of the separation plan who expected Netanyahu to voice categorical criticism of the Gaza withdrawal policy were deeply disappointed by the finance minister: none of them yesterday embraced the conditions which Netanyahu claimed must be fulfilled before the plan is to be supported. Proponents of the separation plan, particularly Ehud Olmert, didn't waste the opportunity to mock Netanyahu. That's what happens to those who tiptoe through the rain - they get wet.
Netanyahu believes his plan to supplement Sharon's policy will win supporters. He believes that only his program can stop Likud from splitting at the seams.
Eyes in Likud will now turn to Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, who would seem to have nowhere to position himself. Olmert has come out firmly for the withdrawal plan. Netanyahu has found his supplementary formula. What is left for Shalom to do? Oppose the plan? He can't plausibly oppose the separation plan because it is Sharon's major diplomatic initiative, and he is foreign minister.
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Tennenbaum's lawyer says latest remand will be the last
By Yossi Melman
The Petah Tikva Magistrate's Court yesterday extended Elhanan Tennenbaum's yesterday for seven days, until next Sunday. Tennenbaum's attorney, Roi Blecher, said this was the last time he would agree to keeping Tennenbaum in custody. Tennenbaum's lawyers said the same thing when his remand was extended last week.
Tennenbaum, a businessman and Israel Defense Forces reserve colonel who was released by Hezbollah in January in a prisoner exchange deal with Israel, is being held in the Neurim police facility in Netanya. From there, he is brought for daily questioning to the police's international investigations unit in Petah Tikva, where police are trying to determine the circumstances of his capture.
Police representative Yaron Aram said at yesterday's remand hearing that Tennenbaum's request to be questioned under hypnosis is being considered, so that his memory will be refreshed regarding details he says he does not remember. Aram said police were discussing the issue with the Health Ministry. The final decision rests with the head of the international investigations unit. Earlier, police sources said they doubted the request, which they called a public relations move, would be honored.
Police investigators said Tennenbaum isn't telling them the entire truth regarding affairs to which he is linked, including accusations of fraud from 1994.
Police say they have proof that could confirm suspicions that Tennenbaum is hiding from them information on his criminal activity. Police don't believe that Tennenbaum was not involved in drug dealing before his trip to Dubai, during which he said he planned to seek advice on how to smuggle drugs to Israeli ports.
According to an agreement Tennenbaum signed, the attorney general can try him if he is found to have lied about any crimes, whether or not they are related to security issues.
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Researchers say Tiberias basilica may have housed Sanhedrin
By Eli Ashkenazi
Antiquities Authority excavations in Tiberias may have uncovered the site of a structure used by the Sanhedrin, researchers believe. The excavations began in March in the central part of the city and in recent days have moved eastward toward route 90. The main finding in the new excavation area is a basilica structure.
Excavation director Prof. Yizhar Hirschfeld from Hebrew University of Jerusalem says the basilica, which was built during the third century C.E., could have been used by the Sanhedrin, which at the time was called Beit Hava'ad. Identical structures, such as one at Beit Sha'arim, were also used for judicial purposes. In Tiberias the site could have also be used for writing the Jerusalem Talmud, researchers believe.
Supporting theory
Prof. Aharon Oppenheimer, a historian from Tel Aviv University whose field of expertise is the Talmud-Mishna period, recently visited the Tiberias excavation and supports the theory that the basilica was the home of the Sanhedrin.
Archaeologists have in recent days also discovered a mosaic at the entry to the large bath house of Tiberias. Green and yellow hues in the work come from glass mosaic tiles; vines bearing fruit are drawn on the mosaic. Another mosaic discovered in the bath house during the 1950s was not preserved - it had pictures of animals (lions and elephants).
The archaeological team has also started to document dozens of stone doors, which were lined up along roads in the city. One theory holds that they were doors of family burial caves (doors were used for similar purposes at Beit Sha'arim).
Prof. Hirschfeld believes the caves were destroyed in a major earthquake in 363 C.E., and the stones remained as decorated pillars.
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Saudi reformers recoup after blow
Saudi authorities released five of a dozen detained activists, after they agreed to cease political activities.
By Faiza Saleh Ambah | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
JIDDAH, SAUDI ARABIA - Activists in Saudi Arabia are trying to continue on the path of political reform despite last week's detention of their top leaders, criticism from the government, and being labeled "a true enemy" by the country's highest religious authority.
Since the detentions, many Saudis who previously spoke freely have been reluctant to go on the record, fearing they, too, could be targeted by the authorities. But they have continued to meet in small groups and have gathered signatures for a petition in support of the detainees.
Of the dozen activists detained, at least five have been released after they signed a statement promising to not sign petitions calling for reform or talk to the media. Online newspaper Elaph said the remaining leaders were refusing to cooperate without legal representation, and that they would not be released until they signed a similar statement.
Some reformists see the detentions as a necessary crossroads for the reform movement and the Saudi leadership. "Now we must organize, organize, organize. Nothing comes without sacrifice. Rights are not handed out; they are taken," activist Sami Angawi says.
"The government has been in charge for 70 years and has done a good job. Now it's time for the people to participate. Everyone wants [the royal family] Al Saud to remain in power - they keep the country stable. But what we need now is not democracy but freedom - freedom to gather, to express ourselves, to discuss issues, and then advise the government," says Mr. Angawi, a member of the Council for the National Dialogue, a forum initiated by the government to encourage different sectors of society to communicate.
Several senior princes recently asked the detainees to slow down the speed and adjust the scope of their demands - and to present a unified front at a time when the country is wrestling with terrorism, activists say.
Saudi authorities have been waging a fierce battle against extremists linked to Al Qaeda since last May's suicide bombing at a housing compound in Riyadh. Despite dozens of arrests, shootouts, and discoveries of huge caches of weapons, the extremists hit again in November. More than 20 suspected Al Qaeda members are still on the run in Saudi Arabia. Just last week two suspected Al Qaeda members strapped with explosive-laden belts - on their way to carry out a suicide mission - were shot dead in downtown Riyadh by security forces.
At a Friday press conference with US Secretary of State Colin Powell in the capital, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal accused the detainees of seeking "dissension when the whole country was looking for unity and a clear vision, especially at a time when it is facing a terrorist threat."
Mr. Powell said he expressed concern over the detentions to the Saudi authorities during his stopover in Riyadh.
Writer Najeeb al-Khineizi, one of the released detainees, says the detention of the reformist leaders creates a void that could hurt the country.
"Silencing these moderate voices is not to the benefit of the authorities. Without this avenue, people will find different ways to express themselves, because change is inevitable," says Mr. Khineizi, who was banned from writing in Saudi newspapers a year ago. "We are not looking for radical solutions, but step-by-step movement. Stagnation is deadly to reform."
Khineizi says he was picked up by Saudi security at a coffe shop last Tuesday, and was released Thursday after he signed a statement under duress.
The government-controlled Saudi press, which has been freer and more critical over the past two years during the reform initiative, remained silent about the arrests, publishing only official statements.
Sunday's al-Hayat newspaper published an interview with grand mufti Abdul-Aziz al-Sheik condemning the detainees. "Those who cast doubt on the nation's leadership ... are the true enemies even if they call for reform," the paper quoted Mr. Sheik as saying.
On Saturday, Saudi Arabia's National Human Rights Association, set up earlier this month by the government, issued a statement saying it was looking into the matter of the detainees. The head of the association, Abdullah al-Obeid, told the Okaz daily that Saudi authorities "are entitled by law to arrest anyone for questioning."
Lawyer Abdul-Aziz al-Qassim, who helped write several of the petitions, says the arrests should have been expected and would not hurt the reform movement. "A lot of change was going on in a short period of time," he says. "People were sending petitions and talking out in the open and meeting in public, and this was not common before."
Qassim says he expects the reformers to continue to work toward change. Yet, now that they know where the red lines are, they would operate "at a slower pace and in a more quiet manner."
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www.csmonitor.com |Copyright ? 2004
Saudis round up reformers
Petitioners arrested this week after stating intention to form a human rights group.
By Faiza Saleh Ambah | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
JEDDAH, SAUDI ARABIA - Saudi authorities continued with a third day of detentions Wednesday with the arrest of lawyer Abdul-Rahman al-Lahem, as defiant activists called for the release of all those arrested.
The sudden and sweeping detention of democratic activists comes at a time when Saudi Arabia has taken steps towards political reforms, allowing a freer and more critical press, announcing the first municipal elections in October, and setting up a human rights organization earlier this month.
"It's an extraordinary step backward in respect to the several moves forward they've taken," says a senior US government official.
"This is a surprise. These men [who were detained] had met with Crown Prince Abdullah and [Interior Minister] Prince Nayef and had open and pleasant discussions about reforms," says writer and activist Turki al-Hamad.
After the Sept. 11 attacks, Saudi Arabia has come under pressure from the United States to implement democratic reforms, which Washington sees as a deterrent to extremism and intolerance. The first widespread detentions since political freedoms became a pressing topic in Saudi Arabia following the Sept. 11 attacks are a blow to the country's reform movement, analysts say.
The arrests are an attempt by the government to put a brake on the country's burgeoning reform movement and to show that they control it, says Saudi writer Tawfiq al-Saif.
"This is a message from the authorities that says, 'no one can impose demands on us.' We decide ourselves on the pace and scope of the reforms, and no one else should interfere," says Mr. Saif.
The trigger for the arrests, he says, was a letter sent several weeks ago to the Saudi crown prince informing him of the group's intention to set up an independent human rights organization.
The group had defied a ban on public gatherings and decided at a meeting of more than 30 Saudis at a Riyadh hotel last month that it was time to stop talking, says Saif, who was in close touch with them. "We had written many petitions and it was decided that we should move into the next phase of taking action," he says.
The sweep of arrests started Monday night in the port city of Jiddah, followed by arrests Tuesday in the capital, Riyadh, and the Eastern Province. Those arrested include several university professors, a lawyer, a poet, and a number of writers who were picked up from either their homes or their workplaces, according to family members.
A statement by the Interior Ministry late Monday confirmed the arrests but did not give details. The men were "detained for questioning regarding petitions they issued which do not serve the country's unity and the cohesion of society based on Islamic law," the statement said.
Reformists in Saudi Arabia have been increasingly active over the past year, sending five petitions to the government demanding wide-ranging political and economic reforms. In a petition signed in December, 116 people sought the transformation of Saudi Arabia into a constitutional monarchy. Last month more than 800 people, including more than 100 women, asked for an elected parliament and a greater role for women.
Political parties and political gatherings are not allowed in Saudi Arabia, and women are not allowed to work alongside men, travel without permission of a male guardian, drive a car, or appear in public unveiled.
Activists also want more transparency and accountability from the royal family, whose members control the country's purse strings and hold major government posts.
The efforts in Saudi Arabia take place against the backdrop of the recently launched US "Greater Middle East Initiative." Washington is calling for major economic and political reforms. But it has met with resistance from Arab leaders in the region. Thursday, US Secretary of State Colin Powell is scheduled to visit Kuwait, and told Reuters that he's looking forward to "a dialogue over...the issues of reform in Kuwait, the Arab world and the Middle East." Kuwait's Prime Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah said on Tuesday that he backed political reforms in the Middle East but any changes should be homegrown and not dictated from outside.
Mr. Tayeb, Mr. Faleh, and Hamid, who have been spearheading the movement calling for faster and greater reforms, have all been previously detained for their political activism - but this was the first time the government has moved against them in recent years.
Mr. Lahem was called in for questioning after he appeared on Al Jazeera satellite television and criticized as illegal the arrest of some of the country's top political activists, he told the Monitor by cellphone on his way to the Saudi security offices.
There were reports of the release of four activists Wednesday, but the reformist leaders, lawyer and publisher Mohammad Saeed Tayeb and academics Matrouk al-Faleh and Abdullah al-Hamed were still behind bars at press time. The exact number of detainees could not be verified, but reformists say that a total of 11 people have been arrested.
Meanwhile activists were gathering signatures for a petition to the country's newly formed, government-appointed human rights group asking for their intervention. They also requested a meeting with the country's defacto ruler, Crown Prince Abdullah, and Prince Nayef, to ask for the release of the detainees, says Saudi writer Abdullah al-Sharif, who is involved with the petition and the request for the royal audience.
"If the human rights group is serious, they have to prove themselves now," says Mr. Sharif.
An officer at the Interior Ministry called Tayeb Monday night and told him he was wanted for questioning before sending a car several minutes later, his wife Faiga Badr says. Tayeb "called me at two in the morning and told me to be strong and he asked me to pack a small bag for him with his medicine and clothes," Mrs. Badr says. "Tuesday he called and asked me to send him lunch. I haven't heard from him since," she says.
* Staff writer Faye Bowers contributed to this report from Washington.

Posted by maximpost at 7:02 PM EST
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China silent on evidence it played key role in Khan's nuke network
Special to World Tribune.com
EAST-ASIA-INTEL.COM
Saturday, March 20, 2004
A Q KhanMian Khursheed/Reuters
Beijing is refusing to comment on documents found in Libya linking China to Tripoli's covert nuclear program.
Documents found in Libya as part of a disarmament plan revealed that China has supplied information on nuclear weapons design. The documents concerned the nuclear supplier group led by Pakistani chief scientist A.Q. Khan.
According to U.S. intelligence, China supplied Pakistan with design information for Islamabad's nuclear weapons. U.S. intelligence agencies have obtained exact details of the Chinese design, which is based on stolen U.S. nuclear weapons secrets.
A Chinese government spokesman declined to answer questions last week when asked about the Chinese-language documents found in Libya. "I don't have the specifics about the document you mentioned," the spokesman said.
Meanwhile, China and Pakistan have concluded an agreement for Beijing to sell Pakistan a second nuclear power plant at Chasma.
The United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency determined that a UAE company served as the hub for the traffic of nuclear weapons components. Officials said the company coordinated with a range of nuclear suppliers for orders from such countries as Iran, Libya and North Korea.
The Bush administration identified the UAE firm as SMB Computers, a key element in the nuclear weapons black market operated by Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan. The company was found to have served as a clearinghouse for nuclear components ordered by Iran, Libya and North Korea.
The public confession on Feb. 4 by Khan - the "father" of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program - in which he admitted to facilitating the network, has shocked the world and prompted new warnings that terrorists could gain access to weapons of mass destruction.
"The supply network will grow, making it easier to acquire nuclear weapon expertise and materials," IAEA director-general Mohammed El Baradei wrote in the New York Times on Feb. 12. "Eventually, inevitably, terrorists will gain access to such materials and technology, if not actual weapons."
"Khan and his associates," a White House fact sheet said, "used a factory in Malaysia to manufacture key parts for centrifuges, and purchased other necessary parts through network operatives based in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Libya, Iran, and North Korea were customers of the Khan network, and several other countries expressed an interest in Khan's services."
The company was said to have processed orders for such goods as uranium hexafluoride - used for the centrifuge process that can produce enriched uranium for nuclear bombs - as well as components and complete centrifuges.
SMB was operated by a deputy of Khan. Officials said the deputy, identified as Bukhari Sayed Abu Tahir, a Sri Lankan native, employed his Dubai company as the front for the nuclear network that sought to provide up to 1,000 centrifuges to Libya.
The nuclear network, which was said to have been penetrated by the CIA, contained companies and people from both Western and Third World countries, officials said. They included Belgium, China, Germany, Japan, Malaysia, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Switzerland, the UAE and the United Arab Emirates.






Analysts now doubt group's claim for Madrid bombing
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Friday, March 19, 2004
LONDON - Western intelligence analysts doubt the credibility of a purported Al Qaida group that has threatened new attacks in Europe.
Yigal Carmon, president of the Washington-based Middle East Media Research Institute and counter-terrorism adviser to three prime ministers, said the Abu Hafs statement does not represent Al Qaida.
"The text of this statement includes linguistic usages and concepts that are incompatible with or alien to authentic Al Qaida writings by Osama Bin Laden, Dr. Ayman Al Zawahiri, and others," Carmon wrote in an analysis.
The analysts said the Abu Hafs Al Masri Brigade appears to be a fictitious organization that could represent part of Al Qaida's psychological warfare campaign against the West. They said Abu Hafs has taken responsibility for non-existent attacks and that its communiques don't bear Al Qaida's imprint.
Abu Hafs has claimed responsibility for the Madrid train bombings on March 11 in which 202 people were killed. On Thursday, the London-based Al Quds Al Arabi daily released another statement by Abu Hafs that warned of additional attacks.
"Our brigades are getting ready now for the coming strike," Abu Hafs said in a statement dated March 15. "Whose turn will it be next? Is it Japan, America, Italy, Britain, Saudi Arabia or Australia?"
Western intelligence agencies have assessed that the Madrid train bombings were the work of Al Qaida-inspired insurgency groups from Morocco. Officials said they have determined a link between the strikes in Madrid and the suicide bombings in Casablanca in May 2003.
Abu Hafs has claimed responsibility for the November 2003 suicide attacks in Istanbul as well as an earlier bombing of United Nations headquarters in Baghdad. But the analysts said those suspected of carrying out the Istanbul attacks did not report any link to Abu Hafs, the communiques of which have also been signed "Al Qaida."
The analysts said the most puzzling aspect of Abu Hafs was its offer to end Al Qaida attacks in Europe. Abu Hafs said it was suspending attacks in Spain to allow its new socialist government to honor a pledge to withdraw from Iraq. Abu Hafs said it also supports the re-election campaign of President George Bush.
"We change and destroy countries," the statement said. "We even influence the international economy, and this is God's blessing to us."
On Thursday, Abu Hafs posted a purported Al Qaida statement on an Islamic website that pledged to avenge the killing of Khaled Ali Haj in Riyad on Monday. Ali Haj was identified as Al Qaida's operations chief for the Gulf region and responsible for suicide strikes on foreign compounds in Riyad during 2003.
The Abu Hafs warnings were among a plethora of statements purportedly by Al Qaida cells posted on Islamic websites over the last few months. In December 2003, Global Islamic Media warned of an imminent Islamic attack on the United States called Operation Cave of Darkness. In a departure from Al Qaida's previous communiques, the website demanded the return of gold to Islamic insurgents and the restoration of borders of Arab and Islamic states.
Another Islamic website, www.khayma.com., predicted the collapse of the United States. But the style of the communique was determined as being different from Al Qaida statements and most intelligence analysts dismissed the warning as fraudulent.
Meanwhile, a European Commission report criticized implementation of European Union agreements to battle insurgency groups and called for a database of criminal records on insurgents throughout the continent. The report also called on EU states to honor orders to seize bank assets of Al Qaida-inspired insurgents.
"It is essential in the fight against terrorism for the relevant services to have the fullest and most up-to-date information possible in their respective fields, including information on convictions," the report said.



Report: Spaniard Led Suspects to Dynamite
By DANIEL WOOLLS
Associated Press Writer
Woolls reports the Spanish man who reportedly led the four Moroccan men to the explosives used in the train attack reportedly met them in a bar. (Audio)
MADRID, Spain (AP) -- A Spaniard with a criminal record led four Moroccans to an explosives warehouse at a mine to steal dynamite used in the Madrid terror bombings, a newspaper reported Saturday.
The unidentified Spaniard, a former miner in the northern Asturias region, was among five people arrested Thursday. He insisted he only led the Moroccans to the warehouse and did not help with the robbery or know the Moroccans had Islamic extremist links, El Pais reported, quoting police sources.
The Spaniard has a record for drug and weapons possession, the newspaper said. The Moroccans remain at large and have not been identified, it added.
Interior Ministry officials could not be reached to comment on the report.
The March 11 train bombings killed 202 people and wounded more than 1,800, making it Spain's deadliest terrorist attack. A total of 160 people remain hospitalized, four of them in critical condition, the Madrid regional health service said Saturday.
Ten suspects are in custody. Suspicion has centered on Moroccan extremists said to be linked to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida group, which carried out the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States.
In a videotape, a man claiming to speak on behalf of al-Qaida said the group carried out the attack in reprisal for Spain's backing of the U.S.-led war in Iraq.
The Spaniard arrested in Asturias told police he had met the four Moroccans in January in a bar in the Lavapies district of Madrid, El Pais said.
That's where one suspect, Jamal Zougam, had a cellular telephone store to which police have traced a cell phone found attached to a bomb that failed to explode.
The Moroccans told the Spaniard they ran a mine in Morocco but had trouble obtaining explosives. The Spaniard offered to help them get dynamite, and in return was apparently given drugs, El Pais said.
The Spaniard met with the Moroccans in the Asturian town of Aviles in late February and led them to an explosives warehouse at a mine, the report said. The explosives were stolen on or about Feb. 29, the paper said.
The Spaniard was arrested Thursday in Aviles, El Pais said. Four Moroccans were also arrested Thursday outside Madrid.
Police think all or part of the estimated 220 pounds of dynamite used in the Madrid bombings came from that warehouse, the paper said.
On Friday, a Spanish judge jailed Zougam and two other Moroccans on 190 counts of murder. That reflects the number of bodies identified so far. Two Indians were jailed on charges of collaborating with a terrorist group. All five suspects were arrested two days after the bombings.
The judge's order stops short of a formal indictment and means the suspects can be held for up to two years while police gather more evidence.
Intelligence chiefs from Spain, France, Britain, Germany and Italy were to meet Monday in Madrid to discuss the threat of terrorism in Europe.
Many Spaniards have accused the Spain's conservative government of provoking the rail bombings by supporting the Iraq war. The ruling Popular Party fell in a surprise defeat by the Socialists in general elections on March 14.
Thousands of Spaniards took part Saturday in rallies in Madrid, Barcelona and other cities to protest the war on the first anniversary of its opening salvos.
Zougam and the other four were held in solitary confinement, with no access to lawyers or news, until their interrogation began Thursday night. The newspaper El Mundo reported Saturday that the first thing Zougam asked the judge was who had won the election.
Also Saturday, the Socialist Party said the man expected to be Spain's next foreign minister, Miguel Angel Moratinos, told U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell Friday that the incoming government was firm in its plan to withdraw the 1,300 Spanish troops stationed in Iraq unless the United Nations takes charge there.
Copyright 2004 Associated Press. All rights reserved.
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U.S. warns imminent attack
may target airliners, ships
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Satuday, March 20, 2004
ABU DHABI - The United States has warned its nationals to be on alert for a major attack in the Middle East.
The State Department has issued an announcement that warned of an attack on civilian passenger jets in the Middle East. The announcement said Al Qaida-aligned groups could be planning strikes against U.S. interests in the region.
"Credible information has indicated terrorist groups may be planning attacks against U.S. interests in the Middle East," the department said Friday.
"Terrorist actions may include suicide operations, bombings, hijackings or kidnappings. These attacks may involve aviation, ground transportation and maritime interests. While conventional weapons such as explosive devices are a more immediate threat in many areas, use of non-conventional weapons, including chemical or biological agents must be considered a possible threat."
This was the first U.S. warning to citizens in the Middle East since Nov. 6, 2003 and included the Red Sea, Persian Gulf, the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa. The department pointed to an increase in security around U.S. military and diplomatic installations, which could result in the targeting of civilian sites.
"Increased security at official U.S. facilities has led terrorists and their sympathizers to seek softer targets such as public transportation, residential areas, and public areas where people congregate," the statement said.
The statement said U.S. nationals in the Middle East and North Africa face anti-American sentiment as well as the risk of attack. The department urged Americans to maintain a high level of vigilance and increase their security awareness.
On Saturday, U.S. Central Command chief Gen. John Abizaid held talks in Sanaa with Yemeni leaders. The talks were said to have focused on military and security cooperation.

Posted by maximpost at 1:31 AM EST
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>> WMD SEARCH? WHERE?

SPEAKING FREELY
N Korea's nukes - planted right under the DMZ?
By Michael G Gallagher

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.

SEOUL - The Beijing talks over North Korea's nuclear-weapons program ended inconclusively, and among the many issues those talks failed to resolve was one question that has probably bedeviled US and South Korean military strategists for years: Exactly where is the shadowy North Korean regime hiding its still tiny nuclear (one hopes) arsenal?

The answer might be lying quietly in a tunnel right underneath the feet of the American and South Korean soldiers guarding the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that separates the democratic South from the Stalinist North.

Digging under an enemy's position to outflank his defenses is an age-old military tactic. King Ashurnasirpal II of Assyria (circa 880 BC) used tunneling as a tactic to undermine an opponent's fortifications. Using iron tools, his soldiers would excavate a chamber under an enemy's walls, then brace its roof with timber supports. The wooden supports were then burned, causing the chamber and the structure above it to collapse. Both Alexander the Great and Julius Caesar used mining in their many campaigns.

Readers may be familiar with a more recent example of military mining if they have seen the American Civil War drama Cold Mountain. In one of the movie's pivotal scenes, the Union forces during the siege of Petersburg try, and fail, to blow a hole through the Confederate trench line with a huge gunpowder mine.

Viet Minh planted tunnel bomb under Dien Bien Phu
Mining as an active military tactic was used as late as the mid-20th century. In 1954, during the final assault on the French positions at Dien Bien Phu, the Viet Minh attackers exploded a one-ton TNT (2,4,6-trinitrotoluene) mine under the French stronghold, Elaine 2. While the mine failed to explode completely, the partial detonation was still a grave psychological blow to Dien Bien Phu's isolated defenders.

Planning to blow up the enemy's position from below went nuclear during the Cold War. Both the United States and the old Soviet Union had nuclear land mines. One type of atomic land mine fielded by the US military was SADM - special atomic demolition munition. Weighing 163 pounds, or 73 kilograms, SADM had an explosive yield of up to one kiloton. It was part of the US nuclear arsenal from 1966 until 1986.

So it is entirely plausible that the North Koreans have placed one or more nuclear land mines under the DMZ. This possibility is made even more likely by the fact that the North Koreans are among the world's champion diggers.

Between 1974 and 1990, four tunnels were discovered running underneath the DMZ. These tunnels had electric lights, railroad tracks and turnarounds for vehicles. One tunnel even had a small underground plaza in which troops could be marshaled in formation. The tunnels were large enough to allow the infiltration of up to 30,000 troops per hour, including tanks and artillery, into South Korean territory. Some South Korean analysts say there may be at least 20 more tunnels as yet undiscovered.

Kim Il-sung ordered underground hideaways
Burrowing deep underground was the brainchild of the founder of the North Korean state, the late dictator Kim Il-sung. At one point during his rule he apparently ordered that each Korean People's Army division stationed along the DMZ should dig at least two tunnels. Apart from the already mentioned tunnels boring under the DMZ, North Korea might have anywhere from 11,000-14,000 other underground hideaways.

Planting a nuclear bomb in a tunnel under the DMZ would be a cheap and effective delivery system for a poverty-stricken country such as North Korea. Buried bombs would also be an almost foolproof backup system for what may be a marginally successful missile-development program.

In 1998, North Korea flew a Taepongdo-1 long-range ballistic missile over Japan. While it sowed alarm in Seoul, Washington and Tokyo, the test itself was only a partial success, with the rocket's third stage failing to ignite properly. Another weapon, the shorter-range Nodong missile, had only one successful test launch during the 1990s. In 2003, the North Koreans conducted two additional missile tests, but these involved short-range, anti-shipping cruise missiles, weapons that posed no strategic threat to the United States and its Asian allies.

Controlling a tunnel bomb would be very simple. During the 1950s, the British government initiated the Blue Peacock project to build nuclear land mines. Products of the Cold War, Blue Peacock mines were to be buried along the projected wartime invasion routes for Russian tanks into what was then West Germany. The classified - its existence wasn't revealed until last July - Blue Peacock project was eventually canceled because of insurmountable environmental and political problems. Still, one aspect of Blue Peacock should alarm anybody who is worried about nuclear-armed moles lurking under the DMZ.

Vengeance from beyond the grave
Blue Peacock mines would have had two methods of detonation: one method was detonation by wire from as far as five kilometers away; the other technique for exploding a Blue Peacock mine was to use a timer, which could have been set for up to eight days before firing. The idea of vengeance from beyond the grave would fit very well with the ultra-tough image the North Koreans often like to project.

Even the idea of a North Korean tunnel bomb, which could be shunted among an unknown number of locations, might be enough to wring some very expensive concessions from the US and its allies during any future talks with Pyongyang.

A North Korean tunnel bomb, if it exists, would also weaken the case of the US administration for the construction a national missile defense system. The threat of North Korea's ballistic-missile program is one of the White House's main rationales for building such a system. The revelation that Kim Jong-il had outfoxed the American neo-cons by mounting a bomb on a rickety, Soviet-era flatbed truck and driving it under the DMZ would cause loud cries of laughter among the opponents of a US missile defense system, not only in Washington, but also in other world capitals.

Michael G Gallagher, PhD, works at Namseoul University, South Korea.

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.

>> HUGGING PERVEZ 2...


Powell pleased, India perplexed
By Sultan Shahin

NEW DELHI - US Secretary of State Colin Powell couldn't help but be impressed during his just-concluded South Asia visit with the positive result of his efforts in the past two years to further peace between two nuclear neighbors, India and Pakistan. There is an extraordinary atmosphere of goodwill in the subcontinent with the resumption of official-level dialogue and confidence-building measures such as the resumption of travel, transport and, above all, cricketing ties.

But when the time came for the United States to distribute rewards for good behavior, India received a bit of a shock. Before Powell's visit, speculation in Delhi was about what rewards India - the peacemaker and responsible nuclear power - would be granted and what punishment Pakistan would receive for its mischief after the revelation that it had been proliferating weapons technology to so-called rogue nation Libya and the remaining members of the US-designated "axis of evil" - Iran and North Korea.

This isn't the way things panned out. It was the bad boy on the block who was rewarded, perhaps understandably so from the US point of view. After all, it is harder for the bad boys to reform. Pakistan has taken measures to stop infiltration of terrorists from its side of the Line of Control (LOC) that separates the Indian and Pakistani state of Jammu and Kashmir, promised to stop the nuclear-proliferation activities of its scientists. and is fighting the Taliban and al-Qaeda remnants within its borders.

But though Powell is mumbling a lot of sweet nothings, India is deeply disappointed. Instead of receiving a sharp rap on the knuckles, and a very well-deserved one too, the Pakistan military has been designated a major non-NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) military ally of the United States for the purpose of future military-to-military relations, facilitating its acquisition of military hardware and other goodies that were not available to Pakistan before. It will enhance military cooperation between the two countries dramatically. The tangible military benefits will include priority delivery of the US military's "excess defense articles".

Powell has assured India, however, that no decision had yet been made on selling F-16 aircraft to Pakistan. He has also said that the US is considering a similar relationship with India too.

Of course, India is rattled. Pakistan, though always a major non-NATO ally of the US, has now formally become part of a privileged group of countries that includes Australia, New Zealand, Israel, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Egypt and Argentina.

The timing of the move is very bad from the point of view of India's ruling party. One of the main planks in its re-election bid is the success it claims to have achieved in building close strategic ties with the United States. The special relationship with the sole superpower was an important part of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's "feel good" electoral package. The opposition will inevitably use this slight by the US to highlight the hollowness of the Indian government's claims.

To be fair, the United States is willing to reward India in a variety of ways as well. Washington has expressed a desire for India to participate in its controversial Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) and is beginning official-level discussions on how the Indian navy and air force can contribute to the US-led non-proliferation coalition established to stop "suspect" shipping on the high seas. The US is also trying to encourage Pakistan to bring about a permanent end to "cross-border violence" in Kashmir.

But the United States is also asking India to open up its markets further and outsource some of its services to the US, if it wants to continue to benefit from the outsourcing of US jobs to India. India's hopes that US President George W Bush's "Next Steps in the Strategic Partnership with India" would lead to easier access to US high technology have also been dashed. A senior US official stated recently that India would receive no substantial technology unless the US was satisfied that India had tightened export controls. The US had placed severe restrictions on the transfer of dual-use technologies, which have both civilian and military applications, to India after its 1974 nuclear tests.

Powell and the peace process
The first hiccup on the hitherto smooth peace process between India and Pakistan took place just a couple of days before Powell's visit. Vajpayee, who is seeking re-election nine months before it was due, was hoping to cash in on the peace process, which is immensely popular in the country - particularly among its 150 million Muslim population. The ruling Hindu fundamentalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is for the first time appealing for Muslim votes on the same ground.

But Pakistani President General General Pervez Musharraf once again emphasized the importance of Kashmir while addressing Indian strategic intellectuals through satellite. In his prepared speech last Saturday for an international conference organized by India Today magazine in New Delhi, Musharraf was more than explicit in restating his country's traditional position on Kashmir. In fact, the Pakistani president referred to Kashmir as the central issue of Indo-Pakistani relations a half-dozen times.

Musharraf also indicated that confidence-building measures would be held hostage depending on the progress of Kashmir, as recently happened in the case of official-level talks on resuming transport links between the Indian state of Rajasthan and the Pakistani state of Sindh. He made a thinly veiled call for the United States to broker a Kashmir solution if it really wants to dampen the fires of Islamic militancy. He even indirectly raised the United Nations plebiscite bogy, though he had himself discounted the possibility only a few months ago on the eve of the summit meeting of the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation held in Islamabad.

This is certainly not the first time Musharraf has changed his tune. Some observers have, however, blamed "provocative questioning" on the part of Indian strategic thinkers for his "combative demeanor". He is known to behave more like the trained commando that he essentially is than like a diplomat when under pressure. Indians wanted him to clarify his stand on Kashmir. He felt that Indians were implying that he was unnecessarily raising the Kashmir issue and, if so, they were divorced from the reality on the ground. Even if he himself wanted to, he said, he could not change the fact that Kashmir was the main dispute between India and Pakistan.

Musharraf may have wanted to pass a message to the United States as well. He may have wanted both India and the US not to be beguiled by the largely successful progress of peace talks and the general atmosphere of extraordinary bonhomie on the subcontinent with growing people-to-people contacts. The gentlemanly cricketing behavior of spectators of both the Karachi and Peshawar one-day matches has indeed earned a large measure of goodwill for Pakistan in India. Indian cricketers too appear to have won the hearts of Pakistani cricket fans, as per the advice of the Indian prime minister, who had specifically asked them to win not only matches but also Pakistani hearts. But Musharraf apparently doesn't want anyone to become too mesmerized by the goodwill generated by recent events and forget about Kashmir.

Not that anyone in India is enthralled by the peace atmospherics or Musharraf's promises. Indian forces are on alert as melting snow on the LOC eases the possibility of militant infiltration. Security officials in Jammu and Kashmir have constantly remained doubtful about Pakistan's commitment to completely end infiltration.

A senior army intelligence official told Asia Times Online that the real test of the promise of peace begins now that melting snow has opened up new routes for terrorist groups to replenish and reinforce their cadre in the state. Only two terrorists infiltrated in the month of February, but the figure was the same last year too, he said.

He was also hopeful, however, because infiltration would have begun picking up from the beginning of March in the absence of any peace initiative as had happened last year. The army did detect two simultaneous infiltration attempts on the night of March 3. Three of four terrorists who had come across from the Poonch district were killed, while one escaped. The forces recovered two AK rifles, currency and three cameras. The second attempt took place in Rajouri district near Thana Mandi. The security forces killed both terrorists belonging to the Lashkar-e-Taiba. Two AK rifles, currency, medicines and a radio set were recovered.

Only three groups were detected while attempting to enter the state from Pakistan until Monday, and eight militants belonging to them were killed. Two militants of a group trying to leave Kashmir and return to Pakistan were also intercepted and killed while trying to cross the border. Only if infiltration does indeed remain down in the coming weeks compared with previous years, one may be able to conclude that the Pakistani government is keeping its word. So far the prognostication is not bad.

From the remarks made by Powell, it is clear that the US too is watching the situation very carefully. Powell said in Delhi he would speak to Musharraf about taking action against terrorist camps. The dismantling of terrorist infrastructure from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir is a long-standing Indian demand. On whether Pakistan had taken steps to dismantle terrorist training camps, he said one of the "essential elements" of the recent agreement between India and Pakistan was an end to cross-border violence. Saying he was "pleased" that activity across the LOC had come down significantly, Powell added that he hoped it would stay that way. "We, of course, will be watching as the spring season approaches," he said, aware of Indian concerns about renewed infiltration once the snows melt.

Addressing a joint press conference with Indian External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha, Powell said he would also speak to Musharraf about "any involvement" of past Pakistani governments in nuclear proliferation, or anything "contemporary" in nature relating to what Washington refers to as the "A Q Khan network". Asked whether his comment that no decision had been made on selling F-16s to Pakistan reflected a shift in the Bush administration's position, Powell said: "My comment over here was that we have to take into consideration any requests that are made of us; but no decisions have been made with respect to any particular military package, especially F-16s." He said last year's US$3 billion economic aid package for Pakistan did not include F-16s.

Another area of major concern for India was what the US was doing to ensure that Pakistan was not able to continue its nuclear-proliferation activities. About the "role" of the Pakistani government in nuclear proliferation, Powell said: "We certainly know the role played by Dr [Abdul Qadeer] Khan for some time now ... We are pleased that Dr Khan has acknowledged what he has done and we are pleased that we are getting a great deal of information from Pakistani authorities as a result of their interrogation of Dr Khan and his associates." He said the "Khan network" was "being broken up", making it clear that more had to be done. "I think we have had a real breakthrough with what Dr Khan has acknowledged and our ability to roll up different parts of the network. We cannot be satisfied till the entire network is gone - branch and root."

Powell said he was confident that if Musharraf was determined to get to the heart of this network, then the residual elements could be dealt with. "With respect to who else was involved ... in past Pakistani governments or anything ... contemporary in nature, I will speak to President Musharraf about this," he said. "There is much more work to be done."

Meanwhile, Powell said he had had a "good discussion" with Sinha on Indian participation in the PSI. Stating that the US wanted India to participate in the security initiative, Powell said officials of the two countries would now discuss the issue. Meanwhile, according to Sinha, there was no discussion on India signing the International Atomic Energy Agency's Additional Protocol to curb nuclear proliferation. It was originally feared that the US would pressure India to sign.

Despite disappointment in India across the board, particularly on account of Pakistan being officially designated a major non-NATO ally of the US, some Indian observers are willing to take a more charitable view. The major newspaper Indian Express, for instance, commented in an editorial written before the announcement about Pakistan's new status: "What we need to remember is that the core interests of India and the US converge across a whole range of issues. But it would be unrealistic to believe that there will be no differences. There is a need, therefore, to ensure that divergences of perceptions, interests and policies between the two countries are also managed in a mature fashion as much as the convergences are taken forward from strength to strength. For example, unsolicited 'advice' from the US State Department on missile testing by India, when actually it was Pakistan that had tested missiles imported clandestinely, is not very helpful. Nor for that matter would equating outsourcing with the omnibus mantra of opening up the economy. In this context, Powell's reassurances to India on outsourcing are most welcome."

(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)

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Pakistan as a 'key non-NATO ally'
By Ehsan M Ahrari

US Secretary of State Colin Powell brought good news to Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf on Thursday. The United States will elevate its military relationship with Pakistan as a major ally outside of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). That is the ultimate reward for Musharraf's willingness not only to do a lot of heavy lifting to capture or kill the top al-Qaeda leadership, but also for risking the very stability of his country by getting so close to Washington. But risks for Pakistan might not be as heady as they appear at a glance. For India and China, the elevation of Pakistan by the Bush administration poses new questions.

From the vantage point of domestic politics in Pakistan, Musharraf's "never say no" attitude toward the United States' demands regarding its global "war on terrorism" is not likely to win him many friends. However, that is not to say that anti-Americanism is on the rise in Pakistan. The March 17 findings of the Pew Research Center underscore that America's image in Pakistan, Turkey and Russia has improved from its last survey of May 2003. As a general principle, a majority of Pakistanis are showing their revulsion against what al-Qaeda and its cohorts inside their own country represent. However, Musharraf still has to worry about the Islamists of his country and their commitment to Osama bin Laden's world view and to his primacy of jihad. Those Islamists have enough clout to cause ample trouble in certain sections of Pakistan. In addition, they will continue their anti-government and terrorist activities, including carrying out further assassination plots.

Pakistan's elevation as a key non-NATO ally by the administration of US President George W Bush is a diplomatic coup de theatre for the Musharraf government. From the perspectives of regional politics, Pakistan is likely to get special access to conventional weapons of all sophistication from the United States. For now, one can speculate that Pakistan will get the same treatment as Israel, Egypt, or Jordan. But in reality, Pakistan would do well if it could be treated on par with Egypt. No key ally of the US will be treated with the kind of generosity in the realms of economic and military assistance as Israel has been receiving from Washington since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.

Even in agreeing to go along with President Bush's recommendations for the transfer of weapons to Pakistan in the coming months, the US Congress will insist on heightened transparency from Islamabad regarding its nuclear-proliferation activities, and complete information on the nuclear-proliferation-related activities of Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan. That is an issue that will not go away for Musharraf.

India, China watch carefully
By elevating Pakistan as a key ally, the US will be forced to conduct a constant balancing act vis-a-vis its strategic partnership with India. That partnership has grown considerably and is not about to be unraveled, barring unforeseen mishaps. There is little doubt that New Delhi will apply its own behind-the-scenes pressure on Washington to elevate its own special strategic status further under the new circumstances. How far the US is willing to go in terms of accommodating India's strategic predilections will be determined by who is occupying the White House in January 2005. The global "war on terrorism" under John Kerry is not likely to take up as much of his energy as it has Bush's, barring no further terrorist incident in the United States. Thus, under a Kerry administration, India might enjoy a slight edge over Pakistan. More substantially, Washington's job of balancing the interests of India and Pakistan will be considerably easy if both South Asian nations succeed in keeping their mutual ties steady and free of tensions leading to a potential war.

China is certainly scratching its head over the implications of Pakistan's newly elevated strategic status for its own ties with that country. In the short run, Sino-Pakistani ties are not likely to be affected. However, in the long run - especially if Islamabad were to get even more economic and military benefits from Washington - the traditional Sino-Indian strategic rivalry might be revisited by Beijing and Delhi. There is little doubt that if Pakistan were to accrue the kind of military and economic payoffs that it expects to get from Washington, the strategic balance in South Asia will undergo a noteworthy mutation. Such a transformation would not be welcomed by New Delhi or Beijing, for different reasons.

India will not be appreciative of any changes in Pakistan's status in conventional arms. That is an area where India has assiduously built up its own superiority for the past 40 years. Beijing, for its part, does not want to lose Pakistan as a key partner in keeping India off balance in the Sino-Indian rivalry. Unbeknownst to Washington, by elevating Pakistan's status as a key ally, it has started a new era of strategic realignment, or at least a major reassessment toward a potential realignment. All in all, such a reassessment is not at all unwelcome, especially since it guarantees the role of the United States as a long-term balancer in South Asia.

Ehsan Ahrari, PhD, is an Alexandria, Virginia, US-based independent strategic analyst.

(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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>> FORGET SCOMI?

Malaysia's rulers poised for election victory
By Anil Netto

PENANG, Malaysia - Just a day left before polling day on March 21 and all indications are that Malaysia's ruling Barisan Nasional (BN, or National Front) coalition is poised for a comfortable victory. Political analysts predict that the coalition will have no problem retaining its commanding majority in parliament.

By all accounts, it has been a quiet and uneventful election campaign so far. Missing is the fever that election ceramahs (small public political gatherings) used to generate. The BN has exploited its control of the media to the hilt. It has also overrun the country with a public relations offensive that bears the mark of an intensive advertising campaign.

From billboards and television to radio and newspapers, the themes are the same. The tag line on the numerous ads resembles that of a cigarette ad: "Barisan Nasional: Excellence, Glory, Distinction."

The PR boys for the BN have been busy. The ads have consistently hammered home the message: Only the BN can bring peace and stability; vote BN for development and so on. There are slight variations, but that is the underlying theme.

Faced with this advertising onslaught, along with the lopsided pro-BN media coverage, the average Malaysian could be forgiven for thinking this is an election without any major issues. And that is exactly what the BN and the mainstream media under their spell want the voters to believe.

The mainstream media have contributed to the BN campaign by telling voters that the only real choice they face is a country under BN rule or "extremism". This plays into the fears largely prevalent among the non-Malay segments of the population - that the only real choice is between the "liberal" BN and the conservative brand of Islam espoused by Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS).

One full-page ad in The Star, the country's top-selling newspaper, carries the message: "No other party can keep Malaysia peaceful, united and secure. Especially against threats of terrorism. Let's continue to enjoy security, peace and unity."

The advertising blitz is not just from the BN. Even government-linked firms such as Malaysia Airlines and Tenaga Nasional Bhd, the electricity utility company, have jumped into the fray, carrying thinly disguised messages that coincide with the BN advertising themes.

Tenaga Nasional has a new corny commercial about a boy going to sleep at night as the lights go out. The ad was slipped in a few times during popular programs such as Late Show with David Letterman. As the boy falls asleep, the narrator comes on with these pearls of wisdom: "Goodnight, son ... Hmm, looks like another night in quiet ol' Malaysia - and thank goodness for that. Because we are a country with peace and special harmony that lets us sleep soundly at night. Now isn't that worth celebrating?"

The other main parties contesting the polls - PAS, the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Keadilan - have been struggling to get their message across with hardly any meaningful access to the media. The only avenues left for them are the ceramahs and the Internet. Because of the limited reach of these avenues, few Malaysians are aware of the larger issues confronting their country.

The opposition is handicapped because the issues they - especially the DAP and Keadilan - are advocating are intangible issues such as the lack of independence of the judiciary, the unlevel electoral playing field and the curbs on democracy.

And that suits the BN fine. It projects itself as the only party capable of bringing about "development". Voters buy into this argument without realizing that the only reason the BN can bring about development is that it has access to the country's resources and government machinery. The BN has successfully ingrained into the population that the BN = government and the "opposition" parties are only good at making noise.

The BN's main selling point is new Premier Abdullah Badawi, whose picture appears on posters across the country. On a single bus stop, it is not uncommon to find half a dozen large portraits of Abdullah dangling around. The sheer amount of resources spent on the BN poster, billboard and glossy-pamphlet campaign ensures that the opposition campaign is dwarfed. For some reason, many of the BN campaign materials were printed and produced in China and shipped back to Malaysia.

To be sure, Abdullah's softer image is a marked contrast to former premier Mahathir Mohamad's often caustic style. And Abdullah's anti-corruption drive has also caught the imagination of many Malaysians, probably due to the hype in the mainstream media.

But many Malaysians fail to realize that all the anti-corruption drive has to show so far are the arrests of a prominent has-been tycoon and a virtually unknown cabinet minister. They do not see that Abdullah's "Mr Nice" image has been tarnished by the fact that as home minister, he is responsible for the arrests under the harsh Internal Security Act, which permits detention without trial. More than 90 people are still in detention, a group of whom are on hunger strike, including two who have been hospitalized.

PAS has also accused BN's dominant United Malays National Organization of offering bribes to persuade PAS candidates to withdraw from the general election, a charge UMNO denies. The party reportedly claimed that two men offered RM100,000 (US$26,300) to PAS's Pasir Raja candidate, Sanip Ithnin, to withdraw his candidacy.

In the face of a hopeless situation for the other parties, it is understandable that there should be a distinct lack of campaign excitement. The most the other parties can hope for is to hold on to the gains achieved during the reformasi-charged polls of 1999. Apart from this, the opposition parties are also hoping to score upset wins in specific constituencies against high-ranking BN officials including those in the cabinet, while PAS is hoping to add to the two states it controls.

Among the constituencies that Malaysians are closely watching are the contest in Pekan in the central state of Pahang where Najib Razak, the caretaker deputy premier, is facing a PAS contender, and the Sungai Siput seat, where the caretaker works minister, Samy Vellu, is up against Keadilan's Jeyakumar Devaraj, a respiratory physician turned political activist.

All eyes will also be on how PAS performs - whether it will make any further inroads or be thwarted. Keadilan also faces a do-or-die battle to make sure it can hang on to the five seats it captured in the last election.

All said, and given the unlevel playing field, the outcome is predictable, with the only uncertainty being to what extent, if any, the opposition can make further inroads. In 1999, the BN won 56 percent of the popular vote yet maintained its two-thirds majority in parliament due to Malaysia's first-past-the-post (simple majority) electoral system. This time around, the BN's share of the popular vote is likely to reach 60 percent or more, though it is unlikely to reach as high as the 65 percent it achieved in 1995.

(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)

Posted by maximpost at 1:11 AM EST
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Inviting the Vampire
By Lee Harris Published 03/19/2004
According to legend, it is impossible for a vampire to enter your house unless you have invited him in. Last Sunday, the Spanish people invited a vampire to enter their house, and the question that now looms before them -- and the rest of Europe as well -- is how to get him back out.
The vampire is terror -- but not just the old homespun terrorism of the European past, but the radically new form of terror that came to the world's attention on 9/11, namely catastrophic terror.
Once upon a time, back in the nineteenth century, terrorism was used to assassinate harmless members of royal families, which meant that unless you were close to the throne, you had nothing to worry about. During the late 1950's, small scale terror attacks were used both in Algeria and in metropolitan France, first of the Algerian Muslims to achieve independence from France, and then by the Algerian Europeans -- the so call pied noirs -- in order to prevent independence.
Here, for the first time, the threat of terror was felt at the personal level by the average guy. Yet as Alistair Horne writes in his history of the Algerian revolution, A Savage War of Peace, the terrorist bombs were designed more to shock and frighten the general public rather than to kill or maim them on a large scale. Two or three people might die in an explosion, but not two thousand or even two hundred.
Yet even these small scale terror attacks were sufficient to divide France into two bitterly opposed factions and to bring an end to the Fourth Republic -- a fact that should wake us up to the vastly greater potential for political de-stabilization posed by the systematic use of catastrophic terror.
Catastrophic terror, unlike ordinary terror, it is not intended to take a few token lives; it is deliberately designed to take so many lives at once that it induces an immediate visceral fear in the entire community that they too are under attack. This effect was clear in the days immediately after 9/11. Back then everything spooked us; and people, hearing the backfire of a truck, jumped out of their skin. At that point it was conceivable that "they" could be anywhere, and that another catastrophic event was right around the corner.
Looking back on 9/11 in light of the strike on Madrid, we are struck by two things. First, our initial phase of collective jitteriness immediately after 9/11, and second, the failure of Al Qaeda to exploit this jitteriness in order to influence or undermine our political system. As far as the date of the attack was concerned, 9/11 might have been pulled out of a hat.
The same thing cannot be said of the terror strike in Madrid. The explosions on Thursday seemed deliberately designed to echo in the minds of the voters the following Sunday -- to echo in their minds and to influence their vote.
If this is the case, then it may well mean that the date of future terror strikes will no longer be drawn out of a hat, but rather will be selected with an eye to maximizing the damage not to people or buildings, but to the political system of the country under attack -- and how better to achieve this end than to plan catastrophic terror events for the eve of national elections, or, even worse, for the morning of one?
If the small scale terror of the Algerian revolutionaries can bring down a republic, one can only begin to imagine the political havoc that the technique of catastrophic terror could achieve if those ruthless enough to exploit it were also cunning enough use it in order to discredit and subvert the very nature of the democratic process. What, after all, is the value of a democracy if terrorists can influence the outcome of elections through acts of mass violence? Who will be willing to vote for a party that has made a point of standing up to terrorism, if the price of their vote will be the brutal murder of hundred or thousands of their fellow citizens -- or even themselves?
What this vampire will do next is anybody's guess. But one thing is certain. It is easy to get a vampire to cross the threshold; but getting him to leave once he has made himself at home -- that is a good deal trickier.
Lee Harris recently wrote for TCS about "Puppet States." His book, Civilization and Its Enemies, was just released by Free Press.
Copyright ? 2004 Tech Central Station - www.techcentralstation.com

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washingtonpost.com
U.S. Mideast Initiative Faces Arab Backlash
By Glenn Kessler and Robin Wright
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, March 21, 2004; Page A19
KUWAIT CITY, March 20 -- The Bush administration and Arab leaders are engaged in a delicate dance over President Bush's call for democracy in the Middle East, with each side struggling to find a balance between high-minded rhetoric and actual progress, U.S. and Arab officials said.
Facing an Arab backlash, the Bush administration has honed its Greater Middle East Initiative, due to be unveiled at the Group of Eight summit of industrial powers in June, to place greater emphasis on plans emerging from the region, such as a possible resolution from the Arab League later this month, U.S. officials said. Arab officials say they feel pressured to respond to the Bush administration proposals, but even reformers privately say they fear that any U.S. imprimatur would discredit the initiative in the eyes of the Arab public and strengthen radical Islamic forces.
The balancing act was on display last week as Secretary of State Colin L. Powell met with Kuwaiti and Saudi officials about the U.S. initiative. Powell told reporters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Friday that the push for greater freedoms in the Middle East was "not a matter of satisfying the United States; it's a matter of satisfying the aspirations of the people in the Arab world." Powell flew back to Washington after meeting with Kuwait's emir, Sheik Jabir Ahmed Sabah, on Saturday.
In recent weeks, after administration plans for the June summit were leaked before U.S. officials had fully discussed them with Arab leaders, a bevy of U.S. officials have toured the region to make amends.
"When our ideas were first made known to the press, there was a great deal of angst in the region," Powell acknowledged. "It has caused a great deal of debate, a lot of argument in the press, and that's good. That's part of the democratic process."
"Each nation has to find its own path and follow that path at its own speed," Powell said.
Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, Prince Saud Faisal, standing next to Powell, responded that the Saudi monarchy was ushering in reforms but not "to get a report of good behavior." He said reform would take place at a pace that would make it "a unifying force for the country and not a divisive aspect."
Saudi Arabia has scheduled its first municipal elections for later this year, and officials have hinted that women may be granted the right to vote. But shortly before Powell arrived, Saudi officials arrested 10 reformist figures, including a university professor, after they had called for the monarchy to move toward a more constitutional model. They also were planning to criticize a state-approved human rights group set up earlier this month. Saudi officials said the group was involved in "acts of sabotage."
Powell said he has expressed concern over the detentions. But Saud, the foreign minister, said, "These people sowed dissension when the whole country was looking for unity and a clear vision, especially at a time when it is facing a terrorist threat."
The pace of reforms has also been uneven in Kuwait. The news media are relatively free to criticize the government but not the emir. Some Islamic leaders have used the political process to block even modest reforms proposed by the emir, including granting women the right to vote, liberalizing the economy and allowing coeducation at universities.
"Kuwait is moving in this direction rather steadily, with a legislature that is -- how should I put this gently? -- is showing some energy with respect to oversight of the government," Powell said Saturday after meeting with Kuwaiti officials.
Officials are now focusing on the upcoming Arab League summit in Tunis, which begins March 29. The 22 members of the league have indicated that they will discuss democracy initiatives and possibly adopt a resolution. "I think if the Arab League could come to some conclusion that everyone agrees to, we would certainly respect that statement of vision," Powell said.
But U.S. officials said the text of such a resolution would determine whether it could be embraced as a step forward at the G-8 summit. Egypt, which has criticized the U.S. initiative, has submitted a proposed resolution that U.S. officials have suggested falls short of Bush administration goals.
The Egyptian proposal would affirm a commitment to "processes of modernization and reform that are undertaken by Arab societies in response to the wishes and needs of their people." The initiative supports the efforts of nongovernmental organizations "within the framework of legality" and links progress on the issue to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt recently said at a conference on reform issues that homegrown reforms must take society's cultural, religious and demographic character into account to avoid "instability or the overtaking of the reform process by extremists who would steer it in a different direction."
"From what we saw of the Egyptian idea, there were more red lines than forward-looking ideas for reform," said a State Department official involved in democracy planning in the Middle East.
Jordan, which in recent months has responded more positively to U.S. calls for reform, also plans to propose a resolution. While its text has not been made public, it is expected to cover similar ground but refer more specifically to good governance, freedom of expression, women's rights, judicial and educational reforms and commitment to human rights.
Jordan's foreign minister, Marwan Muasher, traveled to Washington recently to share his government's ideas with U.S. officials.
Powell told Muasher that the United States has "many tools available to nations that want to use those tools to enhance their reform efforts," such as an ongoing program at the State Department, according to a senior State Department official close to Powell who participated in the meeting. "Powell told Muasher that is the spirit of what we want to do at the G-8: We will try to define tools and reforms and how they can be used as we watch progress in the Arab world."
Wright reported from Washington.
? 2004 The Washington Post Company
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washingtonpost.com
Ex-Aide Assails Bush on War on Terrorism
Associated Press
Sunday, March 21, 2004; Page A22
Richard A. Clarke, the former White House counterterrorism coordinator, accuses the Bush administration of failing to recognize the al Qaeda threat before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and then manipulating the nation into war with Iraq with dangerous consequences.
He accuses President Bush of doing "a terrible job on the war against terrorism."
Clarke, who is expected to testify Tuesday before a federal panel reviewing the attacks, writes in a book going on sale Monday that Bush and his Cabinet were preoccupied during the early months of his presidency with some of the same Cold War issues that his father's administration had faced.
"It was as though they were preserved in amber from when they left office eight years earlier," Clarke told CBS for an interview tonight on "60 Minutes."
CBS's corporate parent, Viacom Inc., owns Simon & Schuster, publisher of Clarke's book, "Against All Enemies: Inside the White House's War on Terror -- What Really Happened."
Clarke acknowledges that, "there's a lot of blame to go around, and I probably deserve some blame, too." He said he wrote to national security adviser Condoleezza Rice on Jan. 24, 2001, asking "urgently" for a Cabinet-level meeting "to deal with the impending al Qaeda attack." Months later, in April, Clarke met with departmental deputy secretaries, and the conversation turned to Iraq.
"I'm sure I'll be criticized for lots of things, and I'm sure they'll launch their dogs on me," Clarke said. "But, frankly, I find it outrageous that the president is running for reelection on the grounds that he's done such great things about terrorism. He ignored it. He ignored terrorism for months, when maybe we could have done something."
Clarke retired in 2003 after 30 years in government. He was among the longest-serving White House staffers, transferred from the State Department in 1992 to deal with threats from terrorism and narcotics.
Clarke previously led the government's secretive Counterterrorism and Security Group.

? 2004 The Washington Post Company

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washingtonpost.com
Kerry Rejects Outsourced Endorsements
By John F. Harris
Sunday, March 21, 2004; Page A07
John F. Kerry's campaign is trying to wave surrender on the great controversy over his claim that more foreign leaders secretly back his candidacy than President Bush. Campaign aides last week said he is neither seeking foreign endorsements, nor will he accept them.
"This election will be decided by the American people, and the American people alone," Rand Beers, a Kerry foreign policy adviser, said in a statement. "It is simply not appropriate for any foreign leader to endorse a candidate in America's presidential election. John Kerry does not seek, and will not accept, any such endorsements."
So goes the effort to end the hubbub over perhaps the most damaging boast in U.S. politics since Al Gore claimed the invention of the Internet. Like that earlier boast -- Gore was indeed an important early backer of government research funding for the technology that eventually became the Internet -- this one may well have more truth than not. Polling in most European nations shows powerful anti-Bush majorities -- do the leaders disagree that much with their constituents? -- and just last week Bush was rebuked by the prime minister of Poland and the newly elected leader of Spain.
But the most prominent voice on the record last week backing the presumptive Democratic nominee was not exactly welcomed by Kerry. Former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad -- a man with a long history of anti-Semitic utterances -- declared, "I think Kerry would be much more willing to listen to the voices of people and of the rest of the world."
The Republican National Committee, continuing what has been a drumbeat of Kerry mockery, featured a new video on its Web site, www.rnc.org. With Austin Powers-style music and images, the spot spoofs the candidate as "John Kerry: International Man of Mystery."
Of course, the Republicans had their own problems with unsavory Asian dictators last week, after Newsday disclosed that the official merchandise Web site for Bush's reelection campaign has sold clothing made in Burma, which has a repressive government and whose goods are banned from import to the United States.
Two Spinners Whirl Back
Two familiar faces in the world of political spin and media combat are returning to Washington, courtesy of Kerry. Howard Wolfson, an aggressive campaign spokesman for Hillary Rodham Clinton's 2000 Senate run in New York, is moving here to join the Kerry communications team, spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter said.
Coming from even farther away is former State Department spokesman James P. Rubin, himself a man of Austin Powers-like mystique, arriving soon from London for six months in Washington. Rubin, who is married to CNN star correspondent Christiane Amanpour, will live here through the fall as a foreign policy adviser and public surrogate for Kerry. Kerry, however, was not Rubin's first choice for president; he advised Wesley K. Clark until the retired Army general's campaign ended.
Democrats Building Unity
It will be a parade of Democratic stars in town on Thursday for the Democratic National Committee's "Unity Dinner," designed to celebrate the party's determination to bury intramural differences and rally behind Kerry.
Former presidents Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, who have had their differences over the years, will be on hand for the dinner at the National Building Museum -- as well as at an after-hours party at the nightclub Dream.
Also present for the dinner will be all of this year's Democratic presidential candidates, minus one. Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (Ohio) was not invited, a DNC official said, because he is still campaigning and not preaching party unity.
The day will also mark the ribbon-cutting at the DNC's newly renovated headquarters at the foot of Capitol Hill. About $13 million was spent refurbishing the building, once a notorious dump. The building is wired for the latest technology, including a studio for satellite news conferences, but staffers grouse that it's still many long blocks from decent expense-account restaurants for source-building reporters.
350 Friends Briefed at 1600
The socially conservative and politically influential Family Research Council was given red-carpet treatment at the White House on Thursday. More than 350 major donors and other supporters received a private briefing from Elliott Abrams, the National Security Council staff director for Middle East affairs.
To give the White House session a more intimate feel, Bush aides split the more than 350 attendees of the council's annual "Washington Briefing" into two groups on successive days.
The Family Research Council is a nonprofit educational foundation and by law must be nonpartisan, but the GOP leanings were clear at last week's briefing. When James Dobson of Focus on the Family warned during one discussion that gay marriage could lead to a "man marrying his donkey," Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, had the crowd chortling by saying that made him think of "a Republican marrying a Democrat."
Staff writer Mike Allen contributed to this report.

? 2004 The Washington Post Company
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SPIEGEL ONLINE - 20. M?rz 2004, 17:12
URL: http://www.spiegel.de/kultur/gesellschaft/0,1518,291685,00.html
F?lschungsskandal
Starreporter von "USA Today" erfand Geschichten
Nach den Betrugsf?llen bei der "New York Times" ersch?ttert ein weiterer Skandal die US-Presselandschaft: Reporter Jack Kelley, hoch dekoriert und f?nf Mal f?r den begehrten Pulitzer-Preis nominiert, hat brisante Storys f?r "USA Today" einfach erfunden.
AP
Reporter Jack Kelley: "Ich habe das Gef?hl, ich werde hereingelegt"
Washington - Jack Kelley soll sich wichtige Teile von mindestens acht gro?en Reportagen f?r die Zeitung "USA Today" ausgedacht haben. Das sind die Ergebnisse einer Untersuchungskommission, die das Blatt eingesetzt hat. Unter den 729 Artikeln, die Kelley zwischen 1993 und 2003 f?r die Zeitung schrieb, seien "journalistische S?nden" von betr?chtlichen Ausma?en.
Unter anderem berichtete der Reporter von einem Selbstmordanschlag auf eine Pizzeria in Jerusalem. In der Story hatte Kelley geschrieben: "Drei M?nner, die drinnen gerade ihre Pizza a?en, wurden aus ihren St?hlen geschleudert. ... Als sie auf dem Boden aufschlugen, l?sten sich ihre K?pfe von den K?rpern und rollten die Stra?e herunter", berichtet die US-Zeitung "Los Angeles Times". Der Autor habe behauptet, die Augen in den abgetrennten K?pfen h?tten noch gezwinkert.
"Ungeheuerlichste Missetat"
Bei "US Today" indes ist unklar, wie Kelley den Zwischenfall ?berhaupt beobachtet haben will. Der Reporter habe etwa 30 Meter entfernt mit dem R?cken zur Pizzeria gestanden, als die Bombe hochging. Nach Beh?rdenangaben sei au?erdem bei dem Anschlag niemand gek?pft worden.
Als Kelleys "ungeheuerlichste Missetat" bezeichnete die Untersuchungsgruppe einen Vorfall aus dem Jahr 2000. Der Journalist hatte ein Foto von einer kubanischen Hotelangestellten f?r eine L?gengeschichte ?ber eine Frau benutzt, die bei ihrer Flucht mit dem Boot ums Leben gekommen sein sollte. Tats?chlich war die Frau nicht geflohen, zudem ?u?erst lebendig und von einem Reporter Anfang des Monats ausfindig gemacht worden.
Jack Kelley arbeitete seit 21 Jahren f?r die Zeitung und war pers?nlicher G?nstling des "USA Today"-Gr?nder Al Neuhart. Der 43 Jahre alte Journalist wurde f?nf Mal f?r den Pulitzer-Preis nominiert. Er berichtete aus Krisengebieten wie dem Nahen Osten oder Afghanistan. Im Januar hatte er seinen Job bei der Zeitung gek?ndigt, nachdem er Redakteuren gegen?ber zugegeben hatte, sie get?uscht zu haben. Er beharre aber nach wie vor darauf, nicht Falsches getan zu haben. "Ich habe das Gef?hl, ich werde hereingelegt", soll er zu Kollegen gesagt haben.
"Wir haben als Institution unseren Lesern gegen?ber versagt, weil wir Jack Kelley Probleme nicht bemerkt haben. Daf?r entschuldige ich mich", sagte Herausgeber Craig Moon. "In Zukunft werden wir sicherstellen, dass eine Umgebung gew?hrleistet ist, in der solch ein Missbrauch nie wieder vorkommt."

? SPIEGEL ONLINE 2004
Alle Rechte vorbehalten
Vervielf?ltigung nur mit Genehmigung der SPIEGELnet GmbH

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Annan seeks Iraq 'fraud' inquiry
BBC
The UN-administered scheme was vital for feeding Iraqis
UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has called for an independent inquiry into allegations of fraud and corruption in its oil-for-food programme in Iraq.
An internal UN inquiry is already under way, but Mr Annan wants outside firms and individuals to be investigated too.
The programme aimed to help Iraq cope with sanctions by allowing oil sales profits to be used for basic goods.
But the US now estimates that Saddam Hussein's regime made billions more out of it than previously thought.
The US Treasury thinks $10bn of illicit gains were made between 1997 and 2002 from the scheme - up from the previous estimate of $6bn.
In January, an Iraqi newspaper alleged that individuals and organisations from more than 40 countries had received vouchers for cut-price oil from the Iraqi regime.
'Serious consideration'
In a letter to the Security Council, Mr Annan proposed setting up an independent high-level inquiry to look into alleged corruption in the oil-for-food programme which was run by the UN from 1996 until last year.
It is highly possible that there's been quite a lot of wrongdoing, but we need to investigate and get to see who is responsible
Kofi Annan
He said the allegations, whether well-founded or not, had to be taken seriously.
Such an independent inquiry would need the backing of the Security Council, and Mr Annan said he would be sending it more details.
Under the oil-for-food programme, more than $65 billion was handed out for food, medicine and other non-military goods to ease the impact of 1991 Gulf War sanctions on ordinary Iraqis.
It was funded by sales of limited quotas of oil.
The programme was closed after the invasion of Iraq by US-led forces.
Smuggling
The US General Accounting Office (GAO), the investigatory arm of Congress, says Saddam Hussein earned $5.7bn from oil smuggled out of Iraq and $4.4bn from illegal surcharges he placed on oil.
GAO officials say the oil was smuggled through Syria, Jordan and the Persian Gulf and that the government imposed surcharges of up to 50 cents a barrel. It also took commissions of between 5-10% from suppliers.
In order to obtain more Iraqi money stashed away by the old regime, the US Treasury on Thursday submitted the names of 16 Saddam Hussein family members and 191 quasi-governmental firms to the UN.
A UN Security Council resolution requires that member nations freeze accounts which contain Iraqi money and hand over the funds for Iraq's reconstruction.

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Demonocracy
Beware of once-elected thugs.



What exactly does democracy -- "people power" -- really mean? Even the Greeks who invented this peculiar institution were not quite sure. Was it just rule by a majority vote? Or did it include mechanisms and subsidies to ensure the participation of the poor? Or to protect the minority from mob rule? Aristotle himself was baffled about what actually distinguished some forms of oligarchies from democracies; indeed his Politics can offer only a hopelessly confused typology.

Later Westerners who looked back at democracy in Athens were also confused over whether it was the noble "School of Hellas" of Pericles or the mobocracy that had precipitously executed Aegean islanders and condemned Socrates -- or both. Sober critics of democracy usually preferred a "Mixed Constitution," a consensual constitution that had various checks -- sometimes legislative, sometimes executive and judicial -- on popular will.

In any case, through the long cauldron of Western political thought there has emerged a consensus that constitutional government should have elements of both direct voting and elective representatives to protect citizenry from their own spontaneous and raw emotions. An independent judiciary, constitutional protection of minority and religious rights, guarantees of personal freedom and expression -- all these institutions are also essential to the idea of "democracy."

In addition, free markets are integral to consensual government. So are property rights. And these institutions are not simply to be ensured at the national level alone; in a modern free country they naturally permeate all of society, from informal elections at local PTA meetings to airing squabbles freely at the local chamber of commerce.

"Democracy" is also an evolving concept. From its inception in ancient Greece it has steadily become more inclusive -- dropping barriers to participation based on wealth, race, and gender. And it has also become more careful to distance governance from what a given electorate happens to feel on any given day, whether through judicial intervention or the rise of vast bureaucracies run by the executive branch.

In the modern world, the terms "democracy" and "republic" -- nomenclature native only to Western languages -- are bandied about quite loosely, inasmuch as they lend a veneer of legitimacy to otherwise awful regimes. The Soviet Union was supposedly a conglomeration of "republics." So were North Vietnam and East Germany. Indeed "democratic peoples" and "socialist republics" were usually code words for no voting and no liberty.

In light of the propaganda value of giving lip service to freedom, dictatorships on the Right also rarely call themselves "The Autocracy of Chile" or "The Nicaraguan Dictatorship." Many of the Arab autocracies -- the Saudi monarchy's employment of "kingdom" is an exception -- are officially "republics." Of course, not a single one has a really consensual government or regularly scheduled elections that are truly free.

So most countries that are not democratic claim that they are; and yet democracy itself turns out to be much more than just the occasion of one free election. And this paradox can raise real problems. Look at the Iranian elections of 1980 that took place in a climate of intimidation and without constitutional guarantees. Secular candidates were harassed and voters intimidated. Within three years there was essentially only one Islamic party and thereafter only sporadic rigged elections. The Iranian "president" and "parliament" meant little then and mean less now, as we learn from the recent forced withdrawal of a number of "reform" candidates.

Ditto for the Palestinians. Arafat had one sort of free election in 1996. But his "opponent," Samiha Kahil, was denied commensurate air time and contended with the bribery, violence, and censorship of Fatah, before garnering a mere nine percent of the vote. There have been no presidential elections since, no free judiciary, and no free press. The Palestinian Authority is about as democratic as the regime of Saddam Hussein, who "won" his similarly fixed election by about the same plurality as Arafat. Yet the New York Times praised Arafat in 1996 for his electoral victory and like most others in the media has been reluctant since to condone his isolation to his Ramallah bunker, given that chimera that he was a "democratically elected leader."

Haiti is not much different. An exiled Mr. Aristide was restored by the United States in 1996, on the pretext that he probably won the 1994 election. But since then he has engaged in criminality, censorship, blackmail, and violence to ensure that both the parliamentary and presidential elections of 2000 were engineered to his own satisfaction. For all his priestly past, New York sojourns, and professed sympathy for the poor, he too is a one-vote, one-time thug.

In some ways these aborted democracies are more pernicious than the old-style dictatorships, in that they use their purportedly democratic geneses as cover for some pretty awful things. The modus operandi works something like this. An initial election follows after the demise of a prior government either associated with autocracy or the machinations of the West -- the abdication of a Duvalier, Shah, or Israeli governing authority. Jimmy Carter arrives to certify (sometimes quite accurately) that the election is more or less fair -- even as he can say little about the absence of a ratified constitution, free press, legitimate opposition, or bill of rights. U.N. "observers" lurk and prowl in the shadows to legitimize the proceedings, understandably scurrying back to their compounds or hotel the first time some hired goon sticks an AK-47 up their noses.

In the years that follow (such "reelected" leaders never lose and never step down), various human-rights organizations and Western leftists subsequently praise the new progressiveness of the "emerging democracy" and turn mostly a blind idea to the predictable theft, killing, and lawlessness that follow.

So happy are supporters of elected indigenous scoundrels that they issue a lifelong pass, one that has the practical effect to encourage all sorts of pathologies, from making nuclear bombs (Pakistan and Iran) to blowing up innocent civilians (Arafat). In most cases, vocal Westerner sympathizers -- a Sartre, Foucault, or Chomsky -- are never interested much in real democratic government, but instead find a vicarious delight in seeing raw power employed under the slogans of "social justice" and "national liberation" and expressed in predictable anti-Western tones -- democracy providing them necessary cover on the cheap for cheering on pretty awful rulers.

To this day, supporters of Iranian nationalism still cite voting in Teheran. "Elected" Mr. Arafat enjoys the fruits of moral equivalence and thus is seen as no different from Sharon -- inasmuch as he too "won" a majority vote just like his counterpart. That Fatah is a lawless gang -- that Palestinians have no real free press and are routinely robbed, shaken down, and sometimes killed by their thugocracy -- is again excused by a single, once-upon-a-time vote. By the same token, Mr. Aristide is championed by the Congressional Black Caucus and an array of leftists precisely because he once won a purportedly transparent election when those he now despises took the effort to ensure his accession.

We should worry about these developments as we press ahead with needed democratic reform in Iraq. It will be easy to have one free election in Iraq under Western auspices. But precipitous voting will hardly make a democracy. Indeed it may have the opposite effect of extending legitimacy to radical Islamicists or strongmen who emerge through the liberality and sacrifice of Western blood and treasure -- only in the years ahead to curb free speech, individual rights, the right to own property, and engage in commerce without government coercion. And far from hating "democracy," such demonocratic subversives welcome its initial largess, by which all the better they can later destroy it.

What to do when we wish to leave -- and those most likely to subvert the process most want us out? The most important development now unfolding in Iraq is not the date of elections, but the emergence of a constitution that protects secularism, women's rights, and ethnic minorities, and a popular culture -- Internet, television, free assembly, and consumerism -- that promotes free and easy association.

Without all that, we will inevitably see a one-time elected leader who will systematically transform American-sponsored fair voting into an institutionalized sham. And these demonocrats will largely be given a pass from anti-American Westerners who, when the corpses pile up and the chaos ensues, will still cling to the myth that Sheik X, Ayallatoh Y, or Chairman Z was in fact "elected."

The administration seems to grasp all these pitfalls and yet senses that democracy can still work in formerly awful places like South Africa, Poland, and Turkey -- if there is a commitment to these vital ancillary institutions and protections. But they are between the rock of global demands for instant Iraqi popular sovereignty and the hard place of guaranteeing long-term democratic success a decade from now when our troops are gone and the world may be an even more dangerous place.

This is not the old realpolitik of giving a pass for pumping oil and keeping Communists at bay, or ignoring the usual descent into demonocracy. Instead of slurring our efforts as colonialist and self-interested, we should at least concede that the implementation of consensual rule in Iraq is the most idealistic, perhaps expensive, and in the end audacious initiative in the last half century of American foreign policy.

Indeed, we are in one of the rare periods of fundamental transformation in world history -- as the United States has pledged its blood and treasure in both a dangerous and daring attempt to bring the Middle East, kicking and screaming, into the family of democratic nations and free societies. So while American soldiers fight, build, patrol, and sometimes die in Iraq and Afghanistan, the world at large -- the Saudi royal family, President Musharraf, Mr. Khaddafi, the mullahs in Iran, the young Assad, the kleptocracy on the West Bank, and the weak and triangulating Europeans -- wonders whether the strong horse will prove to be the murderous bin Laden and his Arab romance of a new Dark Age, or George Bush's idea of a free and democratic Middle East.

http://www.nationalreview.com/hanson/hanson200403190815.asp
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The Deficit Debate Is a Charade
Bloated government, not the tax cut, is to blame.

By Daniel J. Mitchell

The charges lodged against the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts are deceptively simple: They have dramatically reduced government revenues, causing big, long-term deficits that will hurt the economy by driving up interest rates.

But this charge doesn't withstand scrutiny. This is partly because of the tenuous relationship between deficits and interest rates. (If deficits have such an adverse effect on interest rates, why are the rates lower today than they were during the surplus years?) But it's mostly because long-run deficits are caused by the growth of government spending.

Tax cuts certainly aren't to blame. From 1951 to 2000, federal tax revenues averaged 18.1 percent of gross domestic product. Tax-cut opponents frequently imply that Bush's tax cuts have emptied government coffers and created long-term fiscal chaos, but the Congressional Budget Office projects that tax revenues for 2012 to 2014 will average 18.1 percent of gross domestic product. You don't have to be a math whiz to realize how absurd it is to claim that tax cuts cause long-run deficits when tax revenues will mirror their long-term average. (This analysis, by the way, assumes that the tax cuts are made permanent.)

Critics note that tax revenues currently fall below 18.1 percent of GDP. But this is a short-term phenomenon caused by the recent recession and the temporary stock market-driven collapse of tax revenues from capital gains. No one expects these short-term factors to last. The CBO, for instance, estimates that tax revenues soon will return to historical norms, averaging 18.1 percent of GDP over the 2007-09 period.

This does not mean, incidentally, that tax revenues should always be 18.1 percent of GDP. It is just a coincidence that average revenue collections and future revenue projections are identical as a share of national economic output. It does mean, however, that we can't truthfully pin blame for future deficits on the tax cuts.

Deficits, however, are not the issue. The real problem is government spending, and we should view rising deficits as a symptom of Washington's profligacy. The spending crisis is both a short-term and a long-term problem. Federal spending has jumped dramatically in recent years, climbing from 18.4 percent of GDP in 2000 to more than 20 percent of GDP in 2004 (and less than half of that increase can be attributed to national defense or homeland security).

But this short-term expansion of the federal government's burden is minor when compared to what will happen after the baby-boom generation begins to retire. Without reform, huge unfunded promises for Social Security and Medicare benefits will cause federal spending to rise sharply. (And lawmakers last year made the problem worse by creating a new entitlement for prescription drugs under Medicare.)

Bigger government, though, is economically harmful. When politicians spend money, regardless of whether they get it from taxes or through borrowing, they're taking it from the productive sector of the economy. This might not be so bad if lawmakers used strict cost-benefit analysis to determine if the money was being well-spent -- particularly when compared with the efficiency of private-sector expenditures. Unfortunately, that rarely happens. Instead, politicians allocate funds on the basis of political rather than economic considerations. This inevitably weakens economic performance.

Lower spending would be a good idea even if we had a giant surplus. Government programs deprive the private sector of resources that could be used to boost jobs and create growth. This is why we should cut "discretionary" spending and re-examine entire programs, agencies, and departments. Lawmakers also should reform entitlement programs, in part to reduce long-term budget pressures but also because the private sector is better at providing health care and retirement income.

Today's deficit debate is largely a charade. The proponents of big government shed crocodile tears about the deficit because they want higher taxes. Yet historical evidence clearly shows that higher taxes tend to encourage more government spending and hurt the economy -- and both of these factors can cause the deficit to climb still higher. Worse, higher taxes would hurt U.S. competitiveness, making America more like France and other European welfare states.

To save our children and our grandchildren from such a fate, we should keep cutting taxes and finally get serious about reducing the burden of government spending. That may not carry the political allure of vilifying tax cuts -- but at least it's accurate.

-- Daniel J. Mitchell is the McKenna fellow in political economy at the Heritage Foundation


http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_comment/mitchell200403190800.asp
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>> GITMO PUSH PULL...

Guant?namo Detainees Deliver Intelligence Gains
By NEIL A. LEWIS

GUANT?NAMO BAY, Cuba, March 19 -- Military officials say prisoners at the detention center here have provided a stream of intelligence to interrogators during the past two years, including detailed information about Al Qaeda's recruitment of Muslim men in Europe.
Military and intelligence officials also said those detainees who were cooperative had provided information about Al Qaeda's chemical and biological weapons efforts, had spoken about the training of suicide bombers, and had described Al Qaeda's use of charities to raise money for its aims.
"We have been able as a result of information gained here to take operational actions, even military campaigns," said Steve Rodriguez, a veteran intelligence officer who oversees the interrogation teams. "There are instances of learning about active cells, and we have taken action to see that the cell was broken," he said, in one of a series of interviews given to a reporter on an arranged tour.
Another American official said analysts had been able to understand a kind of network in Europe that selected young Muslims, who were later drawn into Al Qaeda by imams and Islamic cultural centers and eventually sent to Afghanistan. He said this information has been sent on in recent months to European counterparts.
The sweeping assertions about the value of the detention center at Guant?namo respond to criticism of the operation, in the United States and abroad. Released detainees have also made allegations of mistreatment.
Apparently in an effort to counter the criticism, officials offered to talk in far greater detail than before about their interrogation techniques and what they say are important intelligence harvests from the detainees.
The officials denied the specific allegations of mistreatment made by prisoners recently returned to Britain whose accounts appeared in British newspapers and from Afghans who spoke to The New York Times in Kabul. Their accounts detail enforced privation, petty cruelty, beatings and planned humiliations.
There is no way so far to verify the situation of the detainees as described by the American officials, nor the charges of mistreatment.
The first military tribunals for some prisoners at Guant?namo may begin this summer, an event that is expected to draw new criticism. Many groups have challenged the legal basis the United States has cited to justify the detentions.
Speaking of the intelligence gleaned, Mr. Rodriguez contended that it was still useful, despite the fact that some of the detainees had been at Guant?namo for nearly two years. "I thought that when I first came here, there would be little to gain," he said. "But when they talk about what happens in certain operational theaters, the locations of certain pathways, that information doesn't perish."
He said a large number of the 610 detainees had not been cooperative with interrogators. At least 50, he said, were "ardent jihadists and have no qualms about telling you that if they got out, they would go and kill more Americans."
Mr. Rodriguez's emphasis on the dozens of the most hard-core detainees raises a significant question about Guant?namo: Does the prison camp also house many innocents who were swept up in the chaotic aftermath of the Afghanistan war?
Human rights groups and relatives of those detained have said the United States has committed a gross injustice by imprisoning many people who were in Afghanistan or Pakistan for reasons other than joining the Taliban or fighting for Al Qaeda. More than 100 prisoners from Guant?namo have been released so far.
Three former British prisoners who are friends from the city of Tipton said in interviews published last week in The Sunday Observer that they were arrested after they went to the region to arrange a marriage for one of the men. One of the others was to serve as best man. They spoke of beatings and abuse by American soldiers, charging that the Americans had stood on their kneeling legs and had held guns to their heads during questioning at Guant?namo.
Maj. Gen. Geoffrey Miller, the departing commander of the Joint Task Force, which runs the prison camp at Guant?namo, categorically denied the allegations.
He said he was confident that all the men there had been properly screened and fit the definition of an enemy combatant. "These people have a number of cover stories," he said. "I can say with certainty that the British detainees were here for an appropriate reason."
Mr. Rodriguez said, "If I were to believe the stories they tell me at first, then 90 percent of them are innocent rug merchants."
The released detainees said some prisoners had been treated brutally by soldiers from the Immediate Reaction Force, a group of seven members called to prison cells when an inmates refused to obey an order. One carries a plexiglass shield, and the rest have elbow and knee pads.
Such actions, officials said, occur three times a week on average and are always videotaped.
General Miller acknowledged a handful of occasions when the handling was judged to have been too rough, but said no one was left seriously injured. He said one military policeman had been court-martialed for overreacting when an inmate threw excrement on him. The soldier was acquitted.
The detention system at Guant?namo is intended to make the prisoners as compliant as possible. The detainees are schooled in a system of rewards and penalties calibrated to their behavior, including potential access to books and puzzles or being deprived of towels and a toothbrush.
For instance, most prisoners are not allowed to exercise in their 6-by-8-foot cells, but get twice-weekly 20-minute periods for exercising and showering. But if the camp authorities decide that detainees are becoming cooperative, they are given more time out of their cells.
The International Committee of the Red Cross, the only outside group that visits the detainees, has not publicly complained about physical mistreatment. But it has said the prolonged detention without any certainty for the inmates about their future is inhumane and psychologically debilitating.
The detainees may be summoned for questioning at any time of day or night for as many as two daily sessions of up to five hours.
One senior intelligence officer, a reservist who is a homicide detective in civilian life, described using hamburgers from the base's McDonald's and games of chess to gain intimacy with a detainee he said had been Al Qaeda's chief explosives instructor.
Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company
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Liberalism, Loose or Strict By Anthony de Jasay presented by www.cne.org
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Introduction The Centre for the New Europe (CNE) is proud to present its readers with "Liberalism, loose or strict", a paper by Anthony de Jasay. The paper was originally presented at the Liberales Institut of Zurich in December 2003. CNE thanks Liberales Institut's President Robert Nef for authorizing the present publication. Anthony de Jasay is one of the few truly original minds in contemporary social science. He is well-known for combining analytical rigor with a realistic approach to social phenomena--a rare quality, given that the industry of political superstitions, which has no purpose but to dress the emperor, is still working at full capacity. Jasay has been opposing such a tendency for some time. His acclaimed book, The State (1985), perhaps the finest treatise on the subject, has opened the eyes of more than a few readers to the true nature of the institution par excellence, in the realm of modern political philosophy. His Against Politics (1997), a collection of penetrating essays, has illuminated the shortcomings of F.A. Hayek's political philosophy, as well as cast new light on the weaknesses of limited government "libertarianism" and opened new perspectives in the examination of the emergence of social conventions. His last book, Justice and Its Surroundings, is dedicated to justice and to the issues that typically surround it: freedom, sovereignty, distribution, choice, property, agreement, et cetera. Not only is Jasay's treatment of justice per se original and groundbreaking - further, he provides insightful criticisms of the approaches used by scholars such as John Rawls, Robert Nozick, Brian Barry, and Thomas Scanlon. For any student of political philosophy, Jasay's work is almost a panacea against the philosophical viruses still poisoning European academia. CNE believes that this paper on "loose and strict liberalism" could greatly benefit readers, giving them a theoretical framework to better understand disputes and debates among so-called "classical liberals" and "libertarians". Jasay's paper envisions new solutions to ancient problems, and provides true intellectual excitement. To complement this paper, we also thank Anthony de Jasay for having been so kind as to answer a few questions by CNE Visiting Fellow Alberto Mingardi. MINGARDI: You speak about the loose foundations of classical liberalism, which hasn't been a very "firm" and "strict" political doctrine, but rather an "inclusive"one, an umbrella-political thought under which many different ways of thinking found place. What do you think is the key issue to distinguish between "loose" and "strict" liberalism? The theory of private property? The issue of social justice? DE JASAY: Property and justice are certainly getting different treatments in the two liberalisms, - but I think this is not a primary element of their differences, but rather the consequence of a more fundamental contrast. At the deepest level, the "loose" and the "strict" doctrines differ because the first is value-based, the second logic-based. In loose liberalism, we start from the value we think people should, and do, attach to freedom. But
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being liberals and tolerant, we also leave them freedom of choice: they are certainly entitled to like other values as well, and it is up to them to choose the tradeoffs between rival values that best suit their inclinations. Thus, value-based loose liberalism makes room for "social justice", for equality, for security and any number of other values you can think of. It is a doctrine of tradeoffs; it can be all things to all men as tastes, fashions of thought, forms of political correctness come and go. This is why I keep saying that (loose) liberalism "has a weak immune system". Its weak doctrine leaves it wide open to parasitic invasions ("rightsism") and mutations of identity. Strict liberalism has one cornerstone (you might even say it is its only cornerstone), namely the presumption of liberty, that is not value-based, is subject to no tradeoffs, but is simply a logical consequence of which kind of statement can be falsified and which kind verified. MINGARDI: What are the most relevant theoretical flaws that you notice in contemporary classical liberal / libertarian principles? DE JASAY: For greater clarity, it might be best to put a dividing line between classical liberalism and libertarianism though the division is far from sharp. My feeling is that classical liberalism suffers mainly from one "design fault": along Lockean lines, it accepts the sovereignty of the state because it believes that our "life, liberty and property" can be exempted from this sovereignty. In other words, it tacitly postulates that if we, good liberals, wish government to be limited, it will be limited. I am afraid this is stark nonsense; it is of the essence of government that it is a tool that some people will use to exploit others and by doing so secure the control of government. It is no use to say that government ought to be limited, or that we wish that it should be. (Cf. ch.2 "Is Limited Government Possible?" in my book Against Politics.) Classical liberalism stands or falls with limited government. If I am right that government has intrinsic, built-in features that predestine it to expand and encroach upon the sphere of individual choices, classical liberalism rests upon a falsehood. It is not clear that libertarianism can be accused of the same fault. It does not seem to me that limited government is an inherent element in libertarian theory. If I am right that it is not, libertarianism is in some sense more truthful. It can postulate anarchy. It can also take government as it exists, and postulate opportunistic, step-by-step shavings-off from its scope, - a privatisation here, the repeal of a busybody law there - as part of the libertarian rearguard fight. Putting it differently, the classical liberal sees the state as legitimate but regrettably overstepping its proper limits and hence in need of being cautioned. The libertarian by contrast sees the state not as an errant servant, but as an adversary. MINGARDI: How does the issue of Constitutionalism fit in your distinction between loose and strict liberalism? DE JASAY: In "loose" liberalism, the constitution is an essential ingredient of whichever kind of political order the particular version of liberalism happens to desire. A well-made constitution works rather like the auto-pilot of a passenger plane; it is an automatic device for ensuring that the plane will fly to the destination "we" have fixed for it. Given a good constitution, "we" are safe.
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But of course society is not a unanimous "we". There are many conflicts of interest where "we" confront "them". If these conflicts must be resolved constitutionally, the constitution will become a locus of conflict, - indeed, perhaps, the central locus of most conflicts. It will accordingly be amended, or twisted and turned in interpretation, or circumvented. Its guardian (the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Court) will be unable to resist this; in some periods (the Warren Court) it will be its chief twister-and-turner. The constitution in its logical structure is a vow. Like a vow, it is up to "us" to keep it. It is also like a chastity belt whose key we have within reach. I believe constitutionalism, like its twin brother contractarianism, is a very dangerous strain of thought. It is illusion-mongering. It fosters a belief that we are on auto-pilot and safe from error or selfish deviation by the pilots. In strict liberalism, the constitution is (almost) irrelevant. Since government is not recognised as legitimate, the question of what it may legitimately do does not arise. MINGARDI: Why do you think "pious lies" are so successful in the intellectual environment? Why even so-called free market types do not go for strict liberalism, but rather worship some sort of alternatives, really indistinguishable from a theoretical standpoint from socialist (loose) liberalism? DE JASAY: Pious lies, e.g. the social contract, tell us that things went the way they did because at bottom we wanted them to go that way. The state of affairs has been chosen by a social choice rule that conforms to ethical axioms (e.g. majority rule). Laws are what they are because they maximise the common good, or maximise wealth (as in law-and-economics). A "veil of uncertainty" has made it rational for us consensually to adopt political institutions that in retrospect are proving to be redistributive and disadvantageous. And so on through the whole list of the social arrangements that systematically favour some at the expense of others. Pious lies, in short, serve to reassure us that we are not silly suckers. MINGARDI: You write that, "Despite the logic of the thesis that the state is intrinsically unnecessary, and the attractiveness of ordered anarchy, it is hardly worth the effort to advocate the abolition of the state. But it is worth the effort to constantly challenge its legitimacy". These are inspiring words, but how do you think that this effort to constantly challenge its legitimacy should take place in the contemporary world? DE JASAY: I am agnostic about civil disobedience and taxpayers' strikes. When I speak of challenging the illegitimate state, I mainly mean waging a relentless intellectual battle against the attitude that approves the law because it is the law, because it has been enacted according to the rules. Docility, willing submission to the "lawful government" makes it far too easy for the latter steadily to enlarge its domain of decision. We have reached the stage where almost any policy measure, no matter how outrageous, is accepted as legitimate provided it can be traced to the majority will. Challenging this means hammering home that the measure is outrageous for good reasons despite the majority wanting it (i.e. in practice, despite its being "socially progressive"). As things stand, this is merely a rearguard fight. However, for reasons we cannot really foresee, the tide may turn one day and the rearguard fight may become an advance.
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Liberalism, loose or strict By Anthony de Jasay Political doctrines can be understood and interpreted in many ways, but in order to survive and prosper, each doctrine needs some irreducible, constant element that represents its distinct identity and that cannot change without the doctrine losing its essential character. Nationalism must hold out sovereignty, the safeguarding and if possible the expansion of a territory, a language and a race as the chief goals of policy. If it did not, it would no longer be nationalism but something else. Socialism appears in many guises, but all its versions have at least one common, inalterable feature, namely the insistence that all wealth is created by society, not by individual members of it. Society is entitled to distribute wealth in whatever way fits its conception of justice. Common ownership of the means of production and equality of wellbeing are derivatives of this basic thesis. It is my contention that liberalism has never had such an irreducible and unalterable core element. As a doctrine, it has always been rather loose, tolerant of heterogeneous components, easy to influence, easy to infiltrate by alien ideas that are in fact inconsistent with any coherent version of it. One is tempted to say that liberalism cannot protect itself because its "immune system" is too weak. Current usage of the words "liberal" and "liberalism" is symptomatic of the Protean character of what the names are meant to signify. "Classical" liberalism is about the desirability of limited government and what goes by the name of laissez faire combined with a broad streak of utilitarianism that calls not for limited, but for active government. American liberalism is mainly concerned with race, homosexuality, abortion, victimless crimes and in general with "rights". In mid-Atlantic English, a liberal is what most Europeans would call a social democrat, while in French "liberal" is a pejorative word, often meant as an insult, and "liberalism" is a farrago of obsolete fallacies that only the stupid or the dishonest have the audacity to profess. These disparate usages do not have much in common. It should not surprise us that they do not. Loose doctrine on loose foundations Much of its lack of a firm identity is explained by liberalism's foundations. At its deepest, the doctrine seems to spring from the love of liberty. In more philosophical language, liberty is a value - final or instrumental - that we hold dear. All the superstructure of liberalism is made to rest on this easily acceptable value judgment. However, liberty is not the sole value, - not even the sole political value. It has many rivals; security of person and property, security of subsistence, equality of all kinds, protection for the weak against the strong, the progress of knowledge and the arts, glory and greatness spring to mind, and the list could be virtually endless. Many if not most of these values can only be realised at the cost of curtailing freedom. It is contrary to the liberal spirit of tolerance and love of liberty to try and reject these values and to dispute anyone's freedom to cherish some of them even at the expense of freedom. The love of liberty allows tradeoffs between it and other things. How much freedom should be given up for how much security or equality or any other worthy objective that at least some people want to achieve, is obviously a subjective matter, my value against your value, my argument against yours. Disagreement is legitimate. From this foundation, therefore, the evolution of the doctrine tends towards allowing rival values
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more and more Lebensraum, to incorporate and co-opt them. What surfaces is a variable mish-mash, all things to all men. Utilitarianism and the Harm Principle This evolution, almost predestined by the dependence of the doctrine on value judgments, was pushed further forward by the teachings of the three most influential theorists of classical liberalism, Bentham, James Mill and John Stuart Mill. They made one-man-one-vote and the good of the greatest number into an imperative of political morality, establishing a wholly arbitrary, if not downright self-contradictory, linkage between democracy and liberalism. This linkage has since achieved the status of a self-evident truth. It is being repeated with parrot-like docility in modern political discourse, and is doing much to empty liberalism of any firm identity. They also bear much of the responsibility for endowing liberalism with a utilitarian agenda. Liberal politics became a politics of betterment in all directions. There is always an inexhaustible fund of good ideas for improving things by reforming and changing institutions, making new laws, new regulations and perhaps above all by constantly adjusting the distribution of wealth and income so as to make it yield more "total utility". John Stuart Mill has quite explicitly laid down that while the production of wealth was governed by economic laws, its distribution was for society to decide. Utilitarianism made this not only legitimate, but actually mandatory, for failing to increase total utility by redistributing incomes is to fail doing the good that you could do. A mandate for overall betterment is, of course, a sure recipe for unlimited government. Many defenders of classical liberalism interpret Mill's famous Harm Principle as the safeguard against precisely this tendency of utilitarian thought. The principle looks like a barrier to the state's boundless growth. "...the only purpose for which power can be rightfully exercised over any member of a civilised community against his will" - states Mill - " is to prevent harm to others".1 However, what constitutes harm and how much harm justifies the use of state power, are inherently subjective matters of judgment. There is a vast area of putative or real externalities which some regard as grounds for government interference while others consider that they are simply facts of life, to be left to sort themselves out. The harm principle, being wide open to interpretation, is progressively expanding its domain. Today, omission is amalgamated with commission. "Not helping someone is to harm him"; the harm principle is invoked by certain modern political philosophers to make it mandatory for the state to force the well off to assist those who would be harmed by the lack of assistance. There may well be strong arguments for forcing some people to help others, but it is surprising to find one that is supposed to be quintessentially liberal. Observing the effects of good intentions is often a matter for bitter irony. Locke tried with his innocent-looking proviso to prove the legitimacy of ownership and succeeded in undermining its moral basis. J.S. Mill thought that he was defending liberty, but what he achieved was to shackle it in strands of confusion. 1 J.S.Mill, On Liberty, ch.I., para 9.
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Strict Liberalism In order to prevent it from becoming indistinguishable from socialism, unprincipled pragmatism or just plain ad-hockery, liberalism must become more strict. It needs different foundations, and its structure must be made minimal and simple, so as better to resist the penetration of alien elements. I suggest that two basic propositions, one logical and one moral, suffice to construct a new, stricter liberal doctrine capable of defending its identity. One is the presumption of freedom, the other the rejection of the rules of submission that imply the obligation of political obedience. The Presumption of Freedom The presumption of freedom should be understood to mean that any act a person wishes to perform is deemed to be free - not to be interfered with, regulated, taxed or punished - unless sufficient reason is shown why it should not be free. Some deny that there is, or ought to be, such a presumption2. However, the presumption is not a matter of opinion or evaluation that can be debated and denied. It is a strict logical consequence of the difference between two means of testing the validity of a statement, namely falsification and verification. There may be an indefinite number of potential reasons that speak against an act you wish to perform. Some may be sufficient, valid, others (perhaps all) insufficient, false. You may falsify them one by one. But no matter how many you succeed in falsifying, there may still be some left and you can never prove that there are none left. In other words, the statement that this act would be harmful is unfalsifiable. Since you cannot falsify it - putting on you the burden of proving that it would be harmless is nonsensical, a violation of elementary logic. On the other hand, any specific reason objectors may advance against the act in question is verifiable. If they have such reasons, the burden of proof is on them to verify that some or all of them are in fact sufficient to justify interference with the act. All this seems trivially simple. In fact, it is simple, but not trivial. On the contrary, it is of decisive importance in conditioning the intellectual climate, the "culture" of a political community. The presumption of liberty must be vigorously affirmed, if only to serve as an antidote against the spread of "rightsism" that would contradict and undermine it, and that has done so much to distort and emasculate liberalism in recent decades. "Rightsism" purports solemnly to recognise that people have "rights" to do certain specific things and that certain other things ought not to be done to them. On closer analysis, these "rights" turn out to be the exceptions to a tacitly understood general rule that everything else is forbidden; for if it were not, announcing "rights" to engage in free acts would be redundant and pointless. The silliness that underlies "rightsism", and the appalling effect it exerts upon the political climate, illustrates how far the looseness of current liberal thought can drift away from a more strict structure that would serve the cause of liberty instead of stifling it in pomposity and confusion. 2 Notably Joseph Raz, The Morality of Freedom, Oxford 1986 , The Clarendon Press, pp.8-12
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The Rule of Submission "The king in his council has expressed his will, and his will shall be obeyed by all" is a rule of submission. So are the rules that required the citizens of Venice to obey the Signoria, that gave the power to make laws to a majority of a legislature and the power to elect legislators to a majority of voters. The latter of these rules are more "democratic" than the former, but they all share the same essential feature: the obligation of all in a community to submit to the decisions of only some of them. Moreover, every such rule imposes the obligation to submit to decisions reached by certain persons in certain ways so to speak in advance, before knowing what those decisions are in fact going to be. Reasons of practical expediency can be found why this must be so if the business of government is to be transacted. The reasons may be good ones, but the rule they call for is no less outrageous for all that. Submission can be morally acceptable if it is voluntary, and voluntary submission by rational individuals is conceivable on a case-by-case basis, on the merits of particular propositions. As a general rule, that amounts to signing a blank cheque, however, it can hardly be both voluntary and rational. If a general rule of submission is necessary for governing, - which it might well be - then the legitimacy of government, any type of government, turns out to be morally indefensible. Does this mean that strict liberals cannot loyally accept the government of their country as legitimate, and are in effect advocating anarchy? Logically, the answer to both questions must be "yes", but it is a "yes" whose practical consequences are necessarily constrained by the realities of our social condition. Orderly social practices that coordinate individual behaviour so as to produce reasonably efficient and peaceful cooperation, can be imposed by law and regulation. Today, many of our practices are in fact so imposed, - many, but not all. Some important and many less vital yet useful ones are matters of convention. Unlike a law that must rely on the rule of submission, a convention is voluntary. It is a spontaneously emerging equilibrium in which everybody adopts a behaviour that will produce the best result for him given the behaviour that he anticipates everybody else to adopt. In this reciprocal adjustment to each other, nobody can depart from the equilibrium and expect to profit from it, because he will expect to be punished for it by others also departing from the equilibrium. Unlike a law that depends on enforcement, a convention is thus self-enforcing. Its moral standing is assured because it preserves voluntariness. David Hume was the first major philosopher systematically to identify conventions in general, and two particularly vital conventions, that of property and of promising in particular. Hayek's fundamental idea of the "spontaneous order" can best be understood in terms of conventions. We owe the rigorous explanation of the self-enforcing nature of conventions to John Nash, and more recent developments in game theory show that conflict-ridden social cooperation problems formerly believed to be "dilemmas" requiring state intervention, in fact have potential solutions in conventions.
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The Strictly Liberal Agenda It is easy to describe plausible scenarios in which spontaneous conventions emerge to suppress torts and protect life and limb, property and contract3. However, such scenarios are written on a blank page, whilst in reality the page is already covered with what the past has written on it. In the West, at least two centuries of ever more elaborate legislation, regulation, taxation and public services, - in short, recourse to the rule of submission - have bred a reliance on the state for securing social cooperation. Society has therefore less need for the old conventions, and its muscles for maintaining old conventions and generating new ones have atrophied. In the face of this reality, it is probably vain to expect the collapse of a state to be followed by the emergence of ordered anarchy. The likeliest scenario is perhaps the emergence of another state, possibly nastier than its predecessor. This limits the practical agenda of strict liberalism. Despite the logic of the thesis that the state is intrinsically unnecessary, and the attractiveness of ordered anarchy, it is hardly worth the effort to advocate the abolition of the state. But it is worth the effort constantly to challenge its legitimacy. The pious lie of a social contract must not be allowed to let the state complacently to take the obedience of its subjects too much for granted. There is a built-in mechanism in democracy for the state to buy support from some by abusing the rule of submission and exploiting others. Loose liberalism has come to call this social justice. The best strict liberalism can do is to combat this intrusion of the state step by step, at the margin where some private ground may yet be preserved and where some public ground may perhaps even be regained. 30 October 2003 3 Cf. Jasay, Against Politics, London 1997 , Routledge, Ch.9 , "Conventions: Some Thoughts on the Economics of Ordered Anarchy".

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Friday, 19 March 2004

>> KHAN CON CONTINUED...


Exposing the web of nuclear WMD: The Khan con...
Mark Alexander (archive)

March 19, 2004 | Print | Send

(This is the second of a two-part commentary on how the CIA scooped the nuclear WMD black-market.)

"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle."
--Sun Tzu (6th century B.C. Chinese general) in "The Art of War"

The United States is at war. Since 1993, the year of the first Islamist attack on the World Trade Center, our homeland has been a frontline in the war with Jihadistan, a borderless alliance of Islamist groups with global reach, who are relentlessly targeting the U.S. as surrogates for Islamic nation states. While orthodox Muslims (those conforming to the teachings of the "pre-Medina" Quran) do not support acts of terrorism or mass murder, very large sects within the Islamic world are indoctrinated with the "post-Mecca" Quran and Hadith (Mohammed's teachings). These are the writings that call for "Jihad" or "Holy War" against all "the enemies of God." Hence, "Jihadistan," or "nation of holy war."

In the war to deter Jihadistan terror, there are two recurrent themes in President George W. Bush's leadership as Commander-in-Chief (his primary Constitutional role). First, he has emphasized that we must know our enemy and endeavor to keep the warfront on their turf. Second, President Bush has rightly insisted that we must know ourselves -- that we must not lose our resolve to conduct this war in defense of our nation and our national interests.

On the first count, we have, thus far, succeeded. While Leftist politicos and their Leftmedia minions are loath to give credit where credit is due, it is nothing short of remarkable that, since 9/11, our Armed Forces, and the multitude of agencies supporting them, have prevented any further catastrophic attacks on U.S. soil.

On the second count, however, our nation's resolve is at great risk of being undermined by President Bush's political opponent, Leftist agitator John Kerry, who should think twice about starting every stump-speech by questioning our presence in Afghanistan and Iraq. Doing so only serves to endanger our forces in those regions -- and the security of our homeland -- by undermining U.S. resolve.

Like his mentor Ted Kennedy, Kerry has suggested that the rationale for Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom was cooked up by the administration and the CIA -- that there are no WMD and, consequently, no looming threats against the United States. But Kerry and Kennedy et al. are wrong -- dead wrong -- and their use of our military campaign against Jihadistan as political campaign fodder is not only unconscionable -- it is, potentially, calamitous.

In his 2002 State of the Union speech, George Bush exercised little ambiguity in putting the "Axis of Evil" on notice: "North Korea is a regime arming with...weapons of mass destruction.... Iran aggressively pursues these weapons and exports terror.... Iraq continues to flaunt its hostility toward America and to support terror. The Iraqi regime has plotted to...develop nuclear weapons for over a decade. ... States like these, and their terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world. By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger. ...[T]he price of indifference would be catastrophic."

Notably, President Bush added, "We will work closely with our coalition to deny terrorists and their state sponsors the materials, technology, and expertise to make and deliver weapons of mass destruction." Now fast-forward two years to the nuclear WMD web linking Pakistan, Libya, Iran, Iraq and North Korea, a network of terror that has been incrementally exposed in the last 60 days. How is it that revelations about the status of nuclear WMD development programs in these nations has suddenly surfaced?

Subsequent analysis by The Federalist leads us to conclude that the CIA (much-maligned by Kerry and Kennedy, who suggest the agency failed to provide accurate estimates of Iraq's undiscovered WMD) succeeded in a high-stakes "takeover" of the nuclear black market prior to 2002. It's an operation that is largely responsible for exposing the aforementioned Islamic web of nuclear WMD development -- and a success that will likely remain unheralded beyond this column.

As we noted last week, the most recent WMD revelation was the International Atomic Energy Agency's "discovery" of advanced uranium-enrichment equipment (gaseous centrifuge technology) at an air force base outside Tehran. That equipment was found to have traces of uranium refined to 90% of isotope 235, which has applications only in limited space reactors such as those in nuclear submarines -- and nuclear bombs. (We're quite certain Iran is not preparing to launch a nuclear submarine.)

Did Iran construct this particular component of advanced nuclear refinement technology? It's doubtful. While Iran has its own successful nuclear WMD program, the source of the recently discovered equipment was very likely North Korea, by way of Iraq. Two years ago in Federalist No. 02-42, we reported that the enriched uranium at the core of North Korea's nuclear WMD program was the product of gas centrifuge technology. Our sources tell us there is substantial evidence that North Korea transferred that technology to Iraq in the last decade.

Iraq, after all, had plenty of time, compliments of the French and French-fortified hand-wringers in the UN, to spirit the bulk of its biological and nuclear WMD into Iran and Syria prior to the coalition invasion last March. (You'll recall that when the coalition's Desert Storm invasion of Iraq was imminent in 1991, Saddam transferred his frontline squadrons of fighters to Iran.)

Of course, some still have their head in the sand, insisting that Iraq had no active nuclear WMD programs in recent years. (Ironically, that is precisely where some elements of his WMD programs likely remain concealed -- in the sand.) For example, as we noted in Federalist No. 03-28, the CIA recovered gas-centrifuge components from Iraqi nuclear scientist Mahdi Shukur Obeidi, who had buried the hardware in his back yard prior to the coalition's invasion of Iraq last year.

Who, then, is the common denominator of these various nuclear WMD programs, and what does he have to do with the CIA? He is Abdul Qadeer Khan who was, until his role in trading nuclear technology was recently exposed, Pakistan's top nuclear scientist, and the father of the "Islamic bomb." Khan collected most of his nuclear know-how from Western Europe and China over the last 20 years.

It is the considered opinion of our analysts that all these recent WMD revelations are the direct result of a covert operation to cultivate operatives in the nuclear black marketplace, particularly Khan, and ultimately control a substantial part of that market in an effort to track sellers and buyers.

While it is not yet clear what the exact nature of the relationship between Khan and the CIA was, suffice it to say that our analysts believe he was either working for the CIA in the latter years of his proliferation endeavors -- or his actions as the nuclear WMD black-market kingpin were transparent to the CIA -- for at least the past four years, and possibly for the last decade.

Contrary to President Bush's assertion that the U.S. would "work closely with our coalition to deny terrorists and their state sponsors the materials, technology, and expertise to make and deliver weapons of mass destruction," we believe the CIA either conned Khan, or used him as the con in a covert operation to provide "materials, technology, and expertise" in an effort to determine which state-sponsors of terrorism were buying nuclear WMD components, and the current stage of their nuclear WMD program development.

It's an old ruse: If you want to know who the distributors and customers are, and how far they have advanced their programs and networks, set up your own shop, undercut the competition, and they'll line up at your door. We believe that is precisely what the CIA did, using Khan wittingly or unwittingly, in setting up one of the most brilliant -- and high-stakes -- con games ever.

Khan apparently operated with the full knowledge of Pakistani President (and former general) Pervez Musharraf, who granted Khan a full pardon after his activities were exposed last month. Khan outsourced a significant amount of production work to Malaysia, centering on one B.S.A. Tahir, a prominent businessman with Malaysia's Scomi Precision Engineering. Last month, speaking at the National Defense University, President Bush identified Tahir as the "chief financial officer and money launderer" of A.Q. Khan's black market ring. Indeed, it was Scomi precision-manufactured centrifuge parts that were seized in the Mediterranean aboard the BCC China late last year, en route to Libya.

Regarding North Korea's role, NSA Condoleezza Rice notes that details of Khan's con were having a profound impact upon the United States' ability to confront and negotiate with Pyongyang. "Now the North Koreans should also recognize that, with the unraveling of these proliferation networks, the A.Q. Khan network, what the Libyans are now freely admitting and talking about, that their admissions and what they say is not the only source of information about what's going on in North Korea," said Dr. Rice. "And it's probably a good time for the North Koreans to come clean."

Like any good sting operation, when it was determined by the CIA that all the information that could be gleaned from the Khan con had been collected -- prior to the transfer of any nuclear weapons to terrorist surrogates -- the CIA, through international channels, exposed the operation and put all Khan's clients on immediate notice that the extent of their nuclear WMD programs is a matter of record with the CIA.

Of course, all Khan's Islamic customers know that in the heart of the Middle East right now, within easy striking distance of any of them, is a substantial U.S. and coalition military force. In light of this fact, what can we make of Libya's sudden surrender of all its nuclear components a few weeks ago?

Mere coincidence? We think not.

George W. Bush has proven himself an outstanding Commander-in-Chief, and the CIA, should it ever acknowledge this operation, will certainly redeem itself in regard to its successful endeavor to track nuclear WMD. That notwithstanding, perhaps the greatest immediate threat to U.S. national security and sovereignty is not al-Qa'ida and company; rather, it is those among us whose phony political rhetoric is weakening our national resolve.

Quote of the week...

"Terrorists will kill innocent life in order to try to get the world to cower. That's what they want to do. And they'll never shake the will of the United States."
--George W. Bush

On the Warfront with Jihadistan....

Today marks the one-year anniversary of the onset of our taking the war with Jihadistan onto the Iraqi battlefields. (For as snapshot of what has changed in the last year, visit Iraq: Now vs. Then. The date has not gone unmarked, as Jihadis have taken the war to Europe. The coordinated bombings of Madrid trains late last Thursday, now almost certainly plotted al-Qa'ida-linked Islamists, with or without the help of Basque separatists, clearly had the desired effect -- it influenced a national election. The Popular Party, whose leader Jose Maria Aznar had been a stalwart ally in the war with the Jihadis, went down in an upset defeat to the Socialist Party, led by Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero.

Not having sought reelection himself, Sr. Aznar became the first Spanish head of state to leave office without revolution or coercion since the abdication of Charles V in 1556. Can we hope as much from PM Zapatero?

Aside from announcing that he will not attempt to form a coalition government, but rule on a straight Socialist platform, PM-elect Zapatero announced his intent to pull out all Spanish troops from participation in the "coalition of the willing" safeguarding Iraq. Zapatero went so far as to mischaracterize the freeing of the Iraqi people, saying, "The occupation is...a fiasco." Occupation? What occupation?

Zapatero further signaled a return to head-in-the-sand postures in dealing with the terrorists. "Terrorism is combated by the state of law. ... That's what I think Europe and the international community have to debate." This preferred European stance on terrorism -- treating it as a matter for police investigation and prosecution rather than a war -- is, by the way, the same method preferred by Candidate John Kerry.

And who is Zapatero's preferred candidate in the U.S. presidential race? "We're aligning ourselves with Kerry. ...Our alliance will be for peace, against war, no more deaths for oil, and for a dialogue between the government of Spain and the new Kerry administration. ...I think Kerry will win. I want Kerry to win." (This gives Kerry two public endorsements from foreign leaders: Kim Jung Il, North Korea's Communist dictator and all-round fruitcake, threatening to provide terrorists with nuclear WMD; and now a Socialist intent on appeasing those very same terrorists. Congratulations, Comrade Kerry!)

While some -- including the majority of Spanish voters -- chided Aznar's government for pinning early blame on ETA, the Basque terrorist group, before indicating Islamist involvement, the facts are more sobering. The combination of ETA and al-Qa'ida m.o.'s, together with a growing body of evidence, points to the possibility of a combined operation by the two terror groups -- both intent on the overthrow of western governments.


Mark Alexander is Executive Editor and Publisher of The Federalist, a Townhall.com member group.

?2004 The Federalist

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Annan: U.N.-Iraq Oil-For-Food Faces Probe
By BARBARA BORST
ASSOCIATED PRESS

UNITED NATIONS (AP) -

Secretary-General Kofi Annan announced plans Friday for an independent commission to investigate alleged corruption in the Iraq oil-for-food program.

Annan revealed his decision to go beyond a current internal U.N. probe Friday night in a letter to the Security Council.

The world organization has been hit with allegations that U.N. staff may have reaped millions of dollars from the oil-for-food program that helped Iraqis cope with U.N. sanctions.

U.S. congressional investigators have also looked into the program, charging this week that Saddam Hussein's government smuggled oil, added surcharges and collected kickbacks to rake in $10.1 billion in violation of the United Nations' oil-for-food program.

The U.N. chief said in the letter he wants "an independent, high-level inquiry to investigate the allegations relating to the administration and management of the program, including allegations of fraud and corruption."

Annan's letter didn't elaborate on how an independent probe would be handled. He said he would address this in a further letter.

Annan told journalists that he had been talking with Security Council members about the scope of the investigation and the need for international cooperation to make it effective.

"I think we need to have an independent investigation, an investigation that can be as broad as possible to look into all these allegations which have been made and get to the bottom of this because I don't think we need to have our reputation impugned," Annan said earlier Friday.

Annan indicated he didn't need security council approval for the probe, but said he wanted its support.

The oil-for-food program was established by the U.N. Security Council in December 1996 to help the Iraqi population cope with U.N. sanctions imposed after Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

The program, which ended in November, allowed the former Iraqi regime to sell unlimited quantities of oil, provided the money went primarily to buy humanitarian goods and pay reparations to victims of the 1991 Gulf War.

The request followed publication in the Iraqi newspaper Al-Mada of a list of about 270 former Cabinet officials, legislators, political activists and journalists from more than 46 countries suspected of profiting from Iraqi oil sales.

U.N. officials have said that they would not comment on the U.S. figure of $10 billion by congressional investigators unless there was "a comprehensive investigation of all aspects of the oil-for-food program, not just U.N. personnel, but what governments and companies did."

"Any such investigation would require the support of the Security Council, and the secretary-general has already indicated this week he has been talking to members of the council" about expanding the inquiry, U.S. spokesman Fred Eckhard said Thursday.

The United Nations has already sent two letters to the Iraqi Governing Council and the U.S.-led coalition requesting evidence of corruption in the program - the latest a week ago.

In late January, the Governing Council asked the country's Oil Ministry to gather information on allegations that Saddam Hussein's regime bribed prominent foreigners with oil money to back his government.

During the program, Saddam's government decided on the goods it wanted, who should provide them and who could buy Iraqi oil. The Security Council committee monitoring sanctions checked the contracts, primarily for dual-use items that could be used to make weapons.

"We certainly knew there was skimming by Saddam and his cronies but with regard to U.N. officials, no," a U.S. official told The Associated Press Thursday, speaking on condition of anonymity. "We certainly hope there are no U.N. officials involved, but if there are some involved, then they should be held accountable."
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Spaniards Offended by Wolfowitz Comment
By ANDREW SELSKY
ASSOCIATED PRESS

MADRID, Spain (AP) -

From a fire station to a Madrid bar brimming with bullfighting paraphernalia, Spaniards said Friday they were offended by a senior Pentagon official's remark that bullfighting shows they are a brave people and they shouldn't run in the face of terrorism.

They saw the comment by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz as narrow-minded and promoting a stereotype.

"This is an ignorant comment," snapped Madrid firefighter Juan Carlos Yunquera, sitting on a bench outside his firehouse. "For a top official, it shows he doesn't know what he's talking about."

Yunquera, who heard the American official's remarks on the radio, pointed out that Spaniards overwhelmingly opposed the war in Iraq, even as Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar joined President Bush's "coalition of the willing" a year ago and later contributed troops for the occupation.

Islamic extremists have reputedly claimed responsibility for last week's Madrid rail bombings, which killed 202 people, as punishment for Aznar's stance on Iraq.

Prime Minister-designate Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero - whose party won general elections Sunday - has insisted he would withdraw Spain's 1,300 troops from Iraq unless the United Nations takes charge. It was a campaign pledge he made long before the bombings, Spain's worst terror attack.

In an interview on PBS television Thursday, Wolfowitz said Zapatero's withdrawal plan didn't seem very Spanish.

"The Spaniards are courageous people. I mean, we know it from their whole culture of bullfighting," Wolfowitz said. "I don't think they run in the face of an enemy. They haven't run in the face of the Basque terrorists. I hope they don't run in the face of these people."

Carlota Duce, a waitress at the Retinto Bar, where a bullfighting sword, lance and hat hung on a wall above patrons sipping beer and eating tapas, said she had no use for such comments.

"It's drivel," she said above the strumming of flamenco guitar on the stereo. "There is absolutely no comparison between bullfighting and Spain pulling out of Iraq."

Bartender Oliver Iglesias found a kernel of truth in Wolfowitz's words.

"We are indeed very brave," he said. "But no one here likes the war in Iraq. And there's a big difference between killing a bull and killing a person."

Gustavo de Aristegui, a legislator and spokesman in parliament for Aznar's Popular Party, also criticized Wolfowitz, saying: "A top-ranking politician should be more careful about the remarks he makes, and that's all I'm going to say about Mr. Wolfowitz."

Yunquera, the firefighter, said he was annoyed that Wolfowitz even mentioned bullfighting.

"I've never liked bullfighting," he said. "If I was to describe Spain, I would say Spain is a tolerant and joyful country and not even mention bullfighting."


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KERRY CALLED SECRET SERVICE AGENT 'SON OF A B*TCH' AFTER SLOPE SPILL

Dem presidential candidate John Kerry called his secret service agent a "son of a bitch" after the agent inadvertently moved into his path during a ski mishap in Idaho, sending Kerry falling into the snow.

When asked a moment later about the incident by a reporter on the ski run, Kerry said sharply, "I don't fall down," the "son of a b*itch knocked me over."

The Secret Service agent in question has complained about Kerry's treatment, top sources tell the DRUDGE REPORT.

Last month, Kerry began receiving Secret Service protection.

"Obviously, the complications and burden of being monitored 24-hours a day is not just an a simple inconvenience," a government source explained Friday. "But Senator Kerry should understand agents are working for his safety and well-being."

On Friday, Kerry, his snowboard strapped to his back, hiked past 9,000 feet on Durrance Peak, then snowboarded down the mountain, taking repeated tumbles. Reporters counted six falls, although Kerry was out of sight for part of the descent.

Developing...

-----------------------------------------------------------
Filed By Matt Drudge
Reports are moved when circumstances warrant
http://www.drudgereport.com for updates

Posted by maximpost at 11:52 PM EST
Permalink

Taiwanese president, vice president shot on eve of presidential election
Campaign rallies suspended; details murky on shooting
2004-03-19 / Associated Press /
President Chen Shui-bian and his vice president were wounded Friday when shots were fired into their motorcade on the final day of campaigning for a landmark election and referendum that could be a turning point in Taiwan's tense relationship with China.
Chen was shot in the stomach and Vice President Annette Lu was hit in the right knee. Their injuries were not life threatening, said Chiou I-jen, secretary-general in the Presidential Office.
There was no immediate report of arrests, and it was not clear what the motivation was for the apparent assassination attempt, in a street choked with supporters of the president in his hometown, the southern city of Tainan.
``They did not suffer life-threatening injuries. They urge the public to cool down,'' Chiou said at a news conference. He added that ``the president is conscious'' and ``can still direct the nation's affairs.''
The presidential vote will go ahead as planned on Saturday, an election official said.
The candidates' parties decided to suspend their campaign activities so that social order could be better maintained. The parties had planned massive rallies throughout the island.
Opposition candidate Lien Chan told a news conference, ``We were very, very shocked. We wish President Chen and Vice President Lu will recover soon. We strongly condemn any form of violence.''
Lien said the rallies would be canceled so that ``everyone can go home, rest and think about things calmly before going out to vote.''
A large crowd of Chen supporters gathered outside the hospital in Tainan. Using Chen's nickname, the crowd chanted, ``A-bian, get elected,'' as they pumped their arms in the air. Some waved green flags, the color of Chen's Democratic Progressive Party.
Chen was riding in a red convertible four-wheel-drive vehicle and waving to crowds lining the streets in his hometown. People were setting off celebratory fireworks as he drove by and early media reports said he was injured by firecrackers.
``It was definitely a gun attack,'' Chiou said, adding that officials found one bullet in Chen's stomach region.
``The vice president first felt pain in her knee and she thought it was caused by firecrackers,'' Chiou said. ``Then the president felt some wetness on his stomach area, and then they realized something was wrong.''
Lawmaker Wang Hsing-nan told TVBS cable news that he was traveling in a car behind Chen's vehicle.
``The president suffered a deep wound about three centimeters (1.2 inches) deep in the stomach,'' Wang told TVBS.
Officials have declined to speculate about who fired the shots.
This is the first time a Taiwanese president has been shot. However, Chen insists that his wife, Wu Shu-chen, was the target of an assassination attempt in 1985 when a truck ran over her three times, leaving her paralyzed from the waist down.
Chen has accused the Nationalist Party of being involved, but the truck driver and party insisted it was an accident and the driver wasn't charged.
This election has been an emotional, hotly contested race dominated by negative campaigning.
Lien is promising to take a softer approach with the island's biggest rival, China.
The Chinese government had no immediate public reaction to the shootings. The Foreign Ministry referred questions to the Cabinet's Taiwan Affairs Office, which didn't answer telephone calls.
China is traditionally a major issue in Taiwanese elections. The two sides split when the Communists took over the mainland in 1949, and Beijing is pressuring Taiwan to unify.
Lien and Chen agree on most basic issues involving China policy. Neither candidate favors immediate unification, and both are highly distrustful of the Communist leadership.
However, Chen has been more aggressive in pushing for a Taiwanese identity separate from China's, and this has raised tensions with Beijing. China has threatened to attack if Taiwan seeks a permanent split.
Chen also plans an unprecedented islandwide referendum on the day of the election.
Voters will be asked whether Taiwan should beef up its defenses to protect against hundreds of Chinese missiles pointed at the island.
China, which claims Taiwan is part of its territory and insists the two should be unified, has criticized the referendum, fearing it could lead to a future vote on Taiwanese independence.
----------------------------------------------
Assassination bid may help Chen in polls
By Laurence Eyton

TAIPEI - President Chen Shui-bian was wounded, but not critically, in an assassination attempt on the eve of the presidential election and controversial referendum Saturday on targeted Chinese missiles that has divided this island, provoked Beijing and prompted warnings from Washington. Taiwan was in shock; Chen might benefit from a sympathy vote.

Chen was released from the hospital, all campaigning was suspended, the polling will go ahead as planned on Saturday, and Chen - who leans toward independence and stresses a separate Taiwanese identity - might receive a sympathy vote. The election has been too close to call and a two-week blackout on polling results has made it impossible to predict the winner.

Political violence is virtually unknown on this island of 23 million people, including 16 million eligible voters, and shock and grief were widespread. The assassination attempt was considered likely to boost Chen's chances of reelection. Core supporters were expected to be more motivated to vote while floating voters were expected to see a vote for Chen as a vote against political violence.

Chen, 54, and his running mate Annette Lu, 59, were shot at 1:45pm Friday as they rode in an open vehicle in a motorcade in Chen's home town of Tainan in the south of the island. Chen was grazed by a bullet across the stomach. He did not lose consciousness, walked into the hospital for treatment and urged the population to remain calm. Lu was shot in the right knee; she also was treated and released. Chen had not been wearing a bulletproof vest, as had been reported earlier.

Chen's wound was 11 centimeters long and three centimeters deep, requiring 14 stitches.

TV viewers saw dramatic pictures of the president standing in a red open-top four-wheel-drive continuing to wave as a red blood stain spread across the front of his white windbreaker. He appeared not to notice that he had been wounded.

"They are both conscious and their lives are not in danger," Chen's chief of staff, Chiou I-jen, told a news conference.

All campaigning was suspended by all parties - Chen's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the rival Kuomintang (KMT) and People First Party (PFP), together forming the so-called pan-blue alliance that is considered sympathetic to Beijing and favored by the Chinese government.

Although campaigning was suspended, supporters of both sides continued to assemble in places designated as rally venues into the evening, and police were concerned that clashes might take place between the rival camps.

Several shots were fired, as Chen's supporters were setting off firecrackers, drowning the noise of the gunshots. At first Chen's security detail thought that he had been injured by flying debris from the firecrackers. The bullet hole through the jeep's windshield told a different story.

Police say two shots were fired from two different handguns and that two spent shell cases had been recovered from the scene.

They issued sketches of two men they wanted to interview, but declined to say anything more. A news blackout was imposed on the investigation.

Chen, head of the DPP, was facing off against his presidential rival Lien Chan of the KMT and his running mate James Soong of the PFP.

The election campaign has been extraordinarily tense, with the two camps running neck and neck for months and both sides suggesting that defeat would mean the end of Taiwan's current political status, in a manner abhorrent to their supporters - an apparent reference to either China's military intervention or increased influence on an island where Taiwanese prize their separate identity.

Chen's supporters believe that unification with China is inevitable if he loses while the opposition pan-blues believe a Chen victory would make Taiwan independence - and China's military intervention - inevitable. As a result the atmosphere has been one of desperation; some analysts think the shooting was the result of the febrile election atmosphere.

Chen was elected to the presidency in 2000 with only 39 percent of the vote. The election has been close and Chen has narrowed the distance between himself and Lien by emphasizing the importance of Taiwan's distinct identity, separate from China that regards the island as a breakaway province. China has vowed to reunify island and mainland at some point, even if military force is required - a conflict that would draw in the United States.

Chen also has won support by emphasizing that China is menacing the island - and as if to make his point, China and France conducted joint military exercises in the Taiwan Strait this week. Chen also succeeded in pushing through a "defensive" referendum - to be held on Saturday at the same time as the presidential vote.

Voters will be asked whether China should be requested to remove almost 500 missiles currently targeted at Taiwan and, if Beijing refuses, whether Taiwan should buy advanced military defense technology, such as anti-missile systems. Voters also will be asked whether they favor resumed dialogue with China on improving relations.

China supports the opposition ticket and US President George W Bush has warned Chen about holding a provocative referendum that could upset the delicate balance in the Taiwan Strait and among the US, China and Taiwan.

(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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Referendum planning a travesty of democracy
By Laurence Eyton

TAIPEI - Taiwan's holding of its first national referendum on Saturday has been cast by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), whose President Chen Shui-bian is up for re-election the same day, as a triumph for democracy in Taiwan - whatever the outcome. But there are major flaws in the referendum process and the degree to which these flaws are exploited by the opposition will be an essential indicator of the degree to which the "pan-blue alliance" of the formerly authoritarian Kuomintang (KMT) and its smaller ally, the People First Party (PFP) are really committed to democratic values. This will be all the more significant, of course, if Chen loses his election fight and the opposition pan-blues retake power.

Taiwan's passage of its Referendum Law in November brought to a close a 15-year fight to turn a constitutional provision allowing referendums into an acceptable law that spells out who can call them, when, how and in what circumstances they are to be considered valid and binding. The new law, however, did not deal with the technicalities of the voting procedure. That has been up to the administrative wisdom of the Central Election Commission (CEC), a cabinet-level body, to organize.

Hitherto the Central Election Commission has enjoyed an impressive reputation for efficiency. Taiwan vote counting is very fast - it should take only three and a half hours to count the 12 million votes cast in Saturday's presidential election - and, for a country with Taiwan's history of corrupt election practices, the CEC is impressively honest (the corruption taking place before the votes are cast).

In designing the rules for the balloting on Saturday, however, the CEC has covered itself with ignominy, reversing itself on just about every aspect of the balloting at least once - having, as one foreign journalist described it "more flip-flops than a Spanish beach holiday" - and has ended up with a procedure that has been excoriated by international experts.

Complications: Each voter gets three ballots
By running the referendum in tandem with the presidential election, the government left the CEC with the task of working out how to give each voter three ballot papers - the referendum has two questions with a separate ballot for each - and making sure they fill them in correctly and put them into the right boxes.

This proved to be no simple task, and it was severely complicated by the opposition of the pan-blues to the entire referendum process and their encouragement to local election officials to break the law by refusing to cooperate with the CEC. When the officials realized that they would face five-year jail terms if they listened to the pan-blues, their blatantly illegal initial position was modified to simply being as obstructive to the Central Election Commission as possible.

Originally the CEC wanted voters to pick up all three ballots in the same place and cast them in the same place. This, the commission said, was the only way to ensure complete ballot secrecy. What the CEC feared - and what might well come to pass - was that since the pan-blues were campaigning not against voting "yes" in the referendum but against taking part in it at all, even picking up the ballot papers - to separate voting for the president and the referendum into two distinct processes - would enable observers to see who voted for the referendum against the pan-blues' wishes and who didn't.

This matters, since in Taiwan patron-client politics has never been eradicated and there are various types of coercion used at election time. Because of the nature of the secret ballot, however, this patron-client coercion has slowly been declining in effectiveness. Company bosses will, for example order their employees to vote in a particular way and then examine their ID cards afterwards to make sure they voted. Given that the ID card records that a person voted but not of course how they voted, this was mere bluster to the disobedient employee, though undoubtedly rumors that "they" could find out what one did in the voting booth have influenced the more timid in the past.

Grumpy polling officials unlikely to help voters
The problem for the CEC was that while local election officials, most of whom are in the pan-blue camp, might have stuck strictly to the letter of the law as to how polling might take place, the novelty of the process might require help and explanation to the voters - which the disgruntled election officials might not see fit to provide, leading to confusion, miscast ballots and anger.

In effect, the Central Election Commission has, through a number of about-faces on previously announced policies, given in to the obstructionists for the sake of having the voting process go reasonably smoothly. After announcing that collection of all ballot papers would be in one place at one time and voting would be in one booth, it changed its procedure so that now voters much pick up a presidential ballot and cast it, then pick up the referendum ballots and cast those.

The CEC also originally said that miscast ballots - those put in the wrong box - would be counted. In all fairness it might be said that this was a bit of a sleight of hand on the government's part; it was, in fact, a way of maximizing the referendum vote, which by a quirk of the Referendum Law needs one half of all eligible voters to cast ballots in order for the vote to be considered valid. Both the pan-blues and legal experts, however, quickly pointed out that it was against the law to deliberately miscast one's ballot - though in fact people are hardly ever prosecuted for doing so. Nevertheless, a miscast ballot was an illegal ballot and how, they asked, could illegal ballots be counted as valid ballots?

This caused another flip-flop as the CEC reversed itself, and said that miscast ballots would not be counted.

Final ignominy: Anti-referendum propaganda okay
The final ignominy for the CEC came as a result of a part of the Presidential Election and Recall Law that prohibits people on election day from displaying campaign material for any specific candidate within 30 meters of a polling station. Yet the CEC will allow people to wear stickers and items of clothing encouraging others not to vote in the referendum into the polling stations themselves.

If this seemed blatantly contradictory, CEC chairman Huang Shih-cheng defended himself by saying that the law forbids campaign material relating to candidates but the law covering referendums has no such provision. As long as people do not try in any other way to persuade others not to vote, they may wear what they like.

What has bothered many commentators is that there is nothing to prevent anti-referendum election officials from wearing anti-referendum stickers, and many feel that this falls far from the standards of impartiality that such officials should display.

But the biggest concern is with the two-stage voting process. On KMT opposition to the referendum, Bruno Kaufmann, president of the Initiative and Referendum Institute in Europe and a leading international expert on referendums, told a news conference on Thursday: "With the current arrangement where voters need to line up separately to vote in the referendum, voters will be forced to reveal whether they support the referendum or not to others at the voting stations. This is a procedural problem that needs to be addressed."

Others are also concerned. Bo Tedards, of the Taiwan Network for Free Elections, wrote in a local paper: "The adoption of the KMT-promoted 'two-stage' voting ... significantly facilitates party and faction operatives in and around polling stations to monitor whether voters are participating in the referendum.

"Given the former prevalence of vote-buying, intimidation and other forms of pressure (by employers, for example), there is every reason to be concerned that these time-honored tactics could be brought to bear on the issue of participation in or boycott of the referendum. It is quite possible that voters, especially those who have previously experienced such pressure, may well adjust their choices as a result," Tedards wrote.

As to what actually will happen, voting day will show. But in the run up to the poll, there was significant anger toward the government on the part of referendum supporters who see the CEC as having compromised the "free and fair" nature of the referendum for the sake of placating opposition from election officials who are actually opponents of the referendum process.

(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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Afghan offensive: Grand plans hit rugged reality
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - The plan to eradicate the Afghan resistance was straightforward: US-led coalition forces would drive from inside Afghanistan into the last real sanctuary of the insurgents, and meet the Pakistani military driving from the opposite direction. There would then be no safe place left to hide for the Taliban and al-Qaeda remnants, or, presumably, for Osama bin Laden himself. The plan's implementation began with the launch of operation "Mountain Storm" around March 15.

But the insurgents have a plan of their own, which they have revealed to Asia Times Online. Conceived by foreign resistance fighters of Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Arab origin, it is a classic guerrilla stratagem that involves enmeshing the mighty military forces of the United States and its allies in numerous local conflicts, diverting them from their real goal and dissipating their strength.

The insurgents' plan, too, has been put into effect, and the fierce fighting in Pakistan's tribal agency of South Waziristan last Tuesday, when resistance fighters and their tribal sympathizers took on the Pakistani military and routed it, was an early manifestation. Now Pakistan must quell its own rebel tribespeople before it continues to help the US with Mountain Storm. Indeed, Pakistan is attempting just that, on Thursday launching a "full force" operation in South Waziristan, using artillery and helicopter gunships. At the same time, tribal opposition to the Pakistani military has spread to North Waziristan - all according to plan, it seems.

In an exclusive meeting with Asia Times Online, a prominent planner of the Afghan resistance spelled out the strategy. Pointing to a hand-drawn map, the insurgent indicated an area he called "Shawal". Technically speaking, "Shawal" falls on the Afghan side of the Durand Line that divides Pakistan and Afghanistan. (Editor's note: The border area inside North Waziristan is also called Shawal.) In reality, "Shawal" is a no-man's land, a place no one would want to go to unless he were as tough as the local tribespeople, a guerrilla fighter taking on the US, or, perhaps, Osama bin Laden. Shawal is a deep and most dangerous maze. The insurgent described it thus:

"One crosses the first mountain and sees a similar mountain emerge and after crossing another mountain he feels a spin in his head and thinks the whole world in this area is the same and leads the way nowhere."

This is the last safe haven for the Afghan resistance, from which they launch attacks on coalition forces and the Afghan government, and to which they return to regroup and receive sustenance from the locals. And this is the kind of terrain the US and its allies will encounter in their drive to occupy "Shawal" whether they come in from the Afghan side via Bermal, or from the Pakistan side via South or North Waziristan.

Those who are masters of this maze can raid the Afghan provinces of Ghazni, Paktia, and Paktika. The only masters are people of the Data Khail and Zaka Khail tribes and the insurgents who base themselves there.

The Data Khail and Zaka Khail have a long history of defiance and have never capitulated to any intruder. The tribesmen are as tough as the terrain, and they have been known for centuries for their strong bonds of loyalty, such that "even an enemy who requests shelter would be given it". These two tribes are now the protectors of the Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters based in "Shawal". By occupying the area, the US hopes to deprive the insurgents of the tribes' crucial support. Forced to flee, the insurgents would eventually fall into the hands of the United States' local proxy networks of anti-Taliban tribes and warlords. Such is the plan.

In response, the insurgents have decided that instead of avoiding confrontation with the coalition forces as they have previously, they will meet them head-on in this unforgiving landscape, while diverting their attention with attacks and harassment in other areas.

The Pakistanis, under intense US pressure to help out, and as of this week's visit by Secretary of State Colin Powell the recipients of even more US military largess (see Pakistan as key non-NATO ally), are already bogged down in South Waziristan. Sources in Wana, headquarters of South Waziristan agency, tell Asia Times Online that a full brigade of the Pakistani army, along with paramilitary troops and backed by artillery, helicopters and two other aircraft, is now attacking tribal positions in Kaloo Shah, Sheen Warsak and Azam Warsak. Sources say that the targeted Wazir tribes have asked neighboring tribes to join the fray.

And as predicted by Asia Times Online (How the US set Pakistan aflame, March 18), the South Waziristan fighting has spread to other areas. According to latest information, an attack on Pakistani troops in North Waziristan has killed a major and several soldiers. The incident, near the "Shawal" area, means the Pakistani army has a new, simultaneous problem to deal with, and their advance has been stopped. The operation that began as a hunt for Osama bin Laden has already degenerated into sideshows against rebel Pakistani tribespeople.

In Afghanistan, US-led forces can expect increasing hit-and-run attacks by local Taliban, who will then melt back into the local population. While the troops engage in house-to-house searches for the perpetrators, the drive for "Shawal" is dissipated and slowed.

It seems the insurgents' plan is already paying off. How they go about building on their initial success will become clear in the coming weeks.

(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)



Posted by maximpost at 6:22 PM EST
Permalink


>> HUGGING PERVEZ?

washingtonpost.com
Musharraf Cites Nuclear Dealings
Powell Told of Government Involvement
By Glenn Kessler
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, March 19, 2004; Page A16
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, March 18 -- Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said Thursday he had received new information from Pakistan's president about the Pakistani government's dealings with Abdul Qadeer Khan, who admitted last month he had sold nuclear designs and components to other countries.
But Powell, who came here saying he would seek details on the links between the disgraced Khan's technology smuggling ring and Pakistani officials, said he would wait to analyze the information in Washington before providing details. "What I want to do is reflect on what he said to me and discuss it with some of my other colleagues back in Washington before I comment on the specifics of it," Powell told reporters traveling with him.
Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the president, pardoned Khan last month after Khan acknowledged a broad scheme that netted him tens of millions of dollars and spread nuclear technology to Libya, North Korea and Iran. But questions have persisted about how Khan's network could operate without the knowledge or participation of senior Pakistani military, intelligence and other government officials. "No responsible government of Pakistan should have tolerated such a thing, and I hope they did not," Powell said, adding, "We got to get all the facts."
The Bush administration has dealt carefully with the matter of Pakistani government links to the Khan network because Pakistan is considered crucial to the war on terror. Reflecting that caution, Powell announced after meeting with the foreign minister here that the administration would grant Pakistan the coveted status of "major non-NATO ally," making it easier for the country to procure military equipment. The announcement came as Pakistani troops waged a bloody battle in a remote tribal area against al Qaeda and Taliban fighters.
Powell rejected any link between the awarding of Pakistan's new status and the Khan investigation. Naming Pakistan a major non-NATO ally is "part of a normal relationship with countries we have military-to-military relations with, and we think it is a sensible thing to do," Powell said. "It is not a reward for A.Q. Khan. It's part of a continuing relationship."
The benefits of the designation for Pakistan are unclear. Easier procurement of surplus military equipment might help Pakistan fight al Qaeda, but the designation does not confer the same mutual defense and security guarantees that members of NATO receive, and Powell acknowledged it can be largely symbolic. In recent months, the Bush administration has awarded the title to Kuwait and Thailand, which joined 10 other nations.
India, Pakistan's South Asia nuclear rival, does not have this status, a fact that Pakistani officials were eager to note. But the Bush administration gave India its own plum this year -- an agreement to help India with its nuclear energy and space technology in return for a promise to use the aid for peaceful purposes and to help block the spread of dangerous weapons.
But Pakistan's Islamic opposition heavily criticized the U.S. offer, saying it would make Pakistan a client of the United States.
"I will be very unhappy if Pakistan is inching towards this alliance with the U.S.," Khurshid Ahmad, a leader of the fundamentalist Jamaat-i-Islami party, told the Agence France-Presse news service.
"This is neither an honor, nor a step towards global security. We have to avoid becoming a mercenary and a client state," Ahmad said, adding it was not a reward but "a new trap."
The fierce fighting in the tribal region, which Pakistani officials said had killed 15 soldiers and 26 militants, has also stirred criticism in Pakistan. The newspaper Daily Times carried an editorial cartoon today showing Powell emerging from his plane and using the coffins of the dead as his steps.
Powell, a retired four-star Army general, also said he and Musharraf had a detailed "soldier-to-soldier" discussion of the fighting. Musharraf seized power in 1999 in a bloodless military coup.
Khan, who ran Pakistan's main nuclear weapons plant for many years and is known as the creator of the country's nuclear bomb, said last month that he had passed nuclear secrets without government authorization. The Pakistani government launched an investigation of Khan last year after receiving evidence from the United States.
But Powell said he believes Musharraf -- who was Army chief of staff and then president during the height of Khan's dealings -- is "serious about this." He noted that Khan is revered in Pakistan and "they are all taken aback by the fact" Khan took the knowledge "he had developed in helping his own nation to help nations that shouldn't have been helped."
After his talks in Islamabad, Powell flew to Kuwait City.
[On Friday morning, he left Kuwait and made an unscheduled visit to Baghdad, where he plans to meet with Iraqi and occupation officials.]

? 2004 The Washington Post Company

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Colombia's FARC using suicide bombers
BOGOTA, Colombia, March 19 (UPI) -- Colombian officials fear a Muslim terrorist is training young revolutionaries for suicide attacks in the country, the Telegraph reported Friday.
The head of the country's secret police said Thursday Luis Hipolito Ospina, a devout Muslim and member of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, had created a squad of 22 suicide bombers ages 12-25.
Although often used by Muslim extremists, suicide attacks are not a common tactic of Latin America's Marxist insurgencies.
"This guerrilla set up an indoctrination program for young people," said Jorge Noguera, the head of Colombia's secret police.
"The ultimate aim of this suicide squad was to murder President Alvaro Uribe."
Police first learned of the squad in February last year, after FARC placed a car bomb in a Bogota club, killing 37 people and injuring 160.
But hard evidence about the squad was not obtained until last week, when the army arrested a young man known as "Heriberto."
The 19-year-old admitted he had been sent on a suicide mission to blow up the secret police headquarters in a provincial capital, Florencia, but had lost his nerve.
Copyright 2004 by United Press International.
All rights reserved.

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Kerry blasts ex-Malaysian PM
WASHINGTON, March 18 (UPI) -- Democratic presidential frontrunner John Kerry rejected the support of former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohammad Thursday.
"John Kerry rejects any association with former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad, an avowed anti-Semite whose views are totally deplorable," Kerry Foreign Policy Adviser Rand Beers said. "The world needs leaders who seek to bring people together, not drive them apart with hateful and divisive rhetoric."
"This election will be decided by the American people and the American people alone," Beers said. "It is simply not appropriate for any foreign leader to endorse a candidate in America's presidential election. John Kerry does not seek and will not accept any such endorsements."
Copyright 2004 by United Press International.
All rights reserved.
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Russians still think Iraq war was 'crime'
MOSCOW, March 18 (UPI) -- Most Russians believe the U.S. and British conquest of Iraq a year ago was a crime against the Iraqi people, RosBusinessConsulting reported Thursday.
Some 62 percent of Russians said the war was a crime and only 23 percent believe it was necessary, indicated a poll conducted by the Russian Center for Public Opinion, also known as VCIOM. Only 4 percent fully supported the U.S.position, RosbusinessConsulting reported.
Russians were also skeptical that the United States had achieved its goals in Iraq. Only 21 percent thought all targets of the Allied military operation there had been reached, the poll showed.
VCIOM said the poll surveyed 1,587 people in 100 Russian cities and towns. It was conducted Feb. 21-22 and has a margin of error of 3.4 percent.
Copyright 2004 by United Press International.
All rights reserved.

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DEA agent charged with witness tampering
WASHINGTON, March 18 (UPI) -- A U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration agent has been charged with witness tampering in Arizona, the Justice Department said Thursday.
Douglas C. Furlow, 43, a special agent with the Phoenix Field Division of the DEA, was named in a federal indictment unsealed Thursday.
The indictment said Furlow allegedly interfered with a criminal investigation in which an undercover DEA informant was to make a drug buy leading to a suspected drug trafficker's arrest. Furlow allegedly called the trafficker and warned him the informant was working with law enforcement, the indictment said.
The DEA's investigation was aborted and neither the drug buy nor the arrest could be made. The trafficker later fled.
If convicted, Furlow faces up to 10 years in prison and a $250,000 fine.
The prosecution is being handled by the Public Integrity Section of the Justice Department. The investigation is being conducted by the Tucson Field Office of the Office of the Inspector General and the DEA's Office of Professional Responsibility, Western Field Division.
Copyright 2004 by United Press International.
All rights reserved.

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Energy offical says bunker busters needed
WASHINGTON, March 18 (UPI) -- A senior U.S. Energy Department official defended research into so-called nuclear "bunker buster" bombs to a House panel Thursday.
Linton Brooks, the undersecretary for nuclear security at the Department of Energy, told a House Armed Services subcommittee research in a device that can penetrate underground bunkers was a deterrent to enemies who use such fortified facilities to house their weapons and command facilities, Congress Daily reported.
Nevertheless, he insisted no final decision had been made on whether to proceed with development of such weapons.
President Bush's 2005 budget calls for spending $485 million on research into such devices through 2009.
A four-year, $72 million study of the issue is scheduled for completion in 2006.
Critics charge such a weapon would never work because of the difficulty of getting the nuclear detonation far enough underground to successfully disrupt operations.
Copyright 2004 by United Press International.
All rights reserved.

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washingtonpost.com
GAO: Iraq Oil Program Profits Understated
Investigation Finds $10.1 Billion Earned Illegally Under Hussein's Government
By Colum Lynch
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, March 19, 2004; Page A16
The former Iraqi government of Saddam Hussein pocketed more than $10.1 billion in smuggled oil revenue and illicit proceeds from a U.N.-run humanitarian program between 1997 and 2002, $3.5 billion more than previously estimated, according to testimony by the U.S. General Accounting Office yesterday.
The latest GAO figures, presented to the House subcommittee on oversight and investigations, have come to light as a result of a global investigation by the Iraqi Assets Working Group, according to two GAO officials, Joseph A. Christoff and Davi M. D'Agostino, who testified yesterday.
The interagency body, headed by the Department of Treasury, is seeking to locate and seize $10 billion to $40 billion in estimated hidden Iraqi assets that can be used to rebuild the country. To date, $2 billion in seized Iraqi assets, including $750,000 in cash found with Hussein, has been channeled into Iraq's recovery.
The GAO charged that Iraq's ruling elites acquired $5.7 billion from the proceeds of oil smuggled through Syria, Jordan, Turkey and the Persian Gulf region. They raised an additional $4.4 billion in illegal revenue through the imposition of oil surcharges and commissions from suppliers.
"According to some Security Council members, the surcharge was up to 50 cents per barrel of oil and the commission was up to 5 to 10 percent of the commodity contract," the GAO stated. "The funds were paid directly to officials connected with the Iraqi government."
The GAO testimony came as the United Nations announced that it is seeking to expand an investigation into allegations of corruption by U.N. officials who managed the former program, known as Oil for Food. U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan has said he has seen no evidence of wrongdoing by U.N. officials, but he has ordered a preliminary investigation by the agency's internal watchdog, the Office for Internal Oversight Services (OIOS).
The charges stem from a January report in a Baghdad newspaper that scores of prominent foreign dignitaries, including the head of the U.N. program, Benon Sevan, allegedly received vouchers to purchase large quantities of oil for less than market value. U.N. critics alleged that the recipients of the vouchers would sell them to middlemen who would resell the oil to a refinery.
The Wall Street Journal's editorial page and an adviser to the Iraqi Governing Council, British businessman Claude Hankes-Drielsma, have leveled additional charges and pressed for an independent investigation.
Sevan has denied the charges through a U.N. spokesman, and Annan has voiced confidence in the innocence of the longtime U.N. diplomat. But in response to the allegations, Annan's office has approached members of the Security Council to explore broadening the investigation and passing a Security Council resolution requiring states to cooperate.
"We are in the process of turning over to the OIOS all the oil-for-food records, that's 60 to 80 boxes," U.N. spokesman Fred Eckhard said in an interview yesterday. "But the secretary general feels that to get a full picture of what went on with oil for food, we would have to look at the whole picture and not just Benon Sevan."
Chile's U.N. ambassador, Heraldo Munoz, discussed the issue yesterday with a senior U.N. aide and said Annan is pressing for the appointment of a review panel or a private accounting firm to conduct an independent audit of the oil-for-food program.
"Since an internal audit would be seen as insufficient, the idea of an external investigator sounds not only reasonable but the most adequate," Munoz said in an interview.
The United States, France and other key Security Council members have yet to sign on to a broader independent inquiry that could question their oversight of the program or investigate their national companies.
Senior U.N. officials say they have not ruled out the possibility of corruption within their ranks, but they have expressed suspicion that the organization is being unfairly targeted by Iraqi critics when the United Nations is mending its relationship with the Bush administration and preparing for an expanded role in Iraq. Critics include U.S. conservatives and Ahmed Chalabi, the fiercest critic of the United Nations within the Iraqi Governing Council and a close associate of Hankes-Drielsma's.
The Security Council established the oil-for-food program in December 1996 to allow Iraq to sell oil to purchase food, medicine and other humanitarian goods. According to the GAO, Iraq sold more than $67 billion worth of oil before the program was shut down. The program's proceeds were transferred to an Iraqi account controlled by the United States and its military allies.

? 2004 The Washington Post Company
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>> GAO.GOV

United States General Accounting Office GAO
For Release on Delivery Expected at 10:00 a.m. EST
Thursday, March 18, 2004 RECOVERING IRAQ'S ASSETS
Preliminary Observations on U.S. Efforts and Challenges
Statement of Joseph A. Christoff, Director International Affairs and Trade and Davi M. D'Agostino, Director Financial Markets and Community Investment
GAO-04-579T
www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-579T. To view the full product, including the scope and methodology, click on the link above. For more information, contact Joseph Christoff at (202) 512-8789 or christoffj@gao.gov or Davi M. D'Agostino at (202) 512-5431 or dagostinod@gao.gov.
Highlights of GAO-04-579T, a testimony to Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, House Committee on Financial Services
March 18, 2004
RECOVERING IRAQ'S ASSETS
Preliminary Observations on U.S. Efforts and Challenges GAO estimates that from 1997 through 2002, the former Iraqi regime acquired $10.1 billion in illegal revenues related to the Oil for Food program--$5.7 billion in oil smuggled out of Iraq and $4.4 billion in illicit surcharges on oil sales and after-sales charges on suppliers. This estimate is higher than our May 2002 estimate of $6.6 billion because it includes 2002 data from oil revenues and contracts under the Oil for Food Program and newer estimates of illicit commissions from commodity suppliers. The United States has tapped the services of a variety of U.S. agencies and recently developed domestic and international tools in its efforts to recover Iraqi assets worldwide. Led by the Department of the Treasury, about 20 government entities have combined efforts to identify, freeze, and transfer the former regime's assets to Iraq. The United States also used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, as amended by provisions in the USA PATRIOT Act of 2001, to confiscate the property of the former Iraqi regime under U.S. jurisdiction and vest the assets in the U.S. Treasury. Finally, U.N. Security Council Resolution 1483 required all U.N. members to freeze without delay and immediately transfer assets of the former Iraqi regime to the new Development Fund for Iraq (DFI).
U.S. efforts to recover Iraqi assets have had varying results. In March 2003, the U.S. government quickly took control of Iraq's assets in the United States. From May to September 2003, the United States transferred $1.7 billion to Iraq to help pay for the salaries of Iraqi civil servants, ministry operations, and pensions. Within Iraq, U.S. military and coalition forces seized about $926 million of the regime's assets. Other countries froze about $3.7 billion of Iraqi regime assets in compliance with U.N. Security Council resolutions. As of March 2004, Treasury reported that more than 10 countries and the Bank for International Settlements had transferred approximately $751 million to the DFI. Little progress has been made in identifying and freezing additional Iraqi assets that remain hidden. While the amount of hidden assets accumulated by the former Iraqi regime is unknown, estimates range from $10 to $40 billion in illicit earnings.
The United States faces key challenges in recovering Iraq's assets. First, recovering the former regime's assets was not initially a high priority in the overall U.S. effort in Iraq. Second, U.S. officials stated that many countries needed to adopt additional legislation to implement the U.N. requirements and transfer the funds to the DFI. U.S. expectations for the quick transfer of funds may have been overly optimistic given the legal capabilities of some countries. Third, the impending transfer of sovereignty to an interim Iraqi government on June 30, 2004, may further complicate U.S. efforts to locate and recover assets of the former regime. It is uncertain whether the new government will allow the United States to continue its hunt for the former regime's assets. Rebuilding Iraq is a U.S. national security priority. Billions of dollars are needed for Iraq's reconstruction. The U.S. government and the international community have undertaken important efforts to recover the assets of the former regime and return them to the Iraqi people. In this testimony, GAO will present its preliminary observations on the recovery effort. Specifically, GAO (1) updates its estimate of the revenues diverted from the Oil for Food Program, (2) describes the U.S. government agencies working on the asset recovery effort, (3) discusses the results of U.S. efforts, and (4) highlights challenges that the United States faces in recovering Iraqi assets.
As this testimony reflects GAO's preliminary observations, GAO is making no recommendations.
Page 1 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
Madam Chairwoman and Members of the Subcommittee:
We are pleased to be here today to discuss our preliminary observations on U.S. and international efforts to recover assets of the former Iraqi regime and transfer them to Iraq for reconstruction. Rebuilding Iraq is a U.S. national security and foreign policy priority. Billions of dollars are needed for meeting humanitarian needs, stabilizing Iraq, and repairing the country's infrastructure. The U.S. government and the international community have undertaken important efforts to recover the assets of the former regime and return them to the Iraqi people. In May 2003, this committee asked GAO to examine how the U.S. government works with the international community to recover the assets of targeted foreign regimes. We will complete this broader report on U.S. recovery efforts for the committee in May 2004. Today, we will present our preliminary observations on Iraqi asset recovery efforts. Specifically, we will (1) update our estimate of the revenues diverted from the Oil for Food Program by the former Iraqi regime, (2) describe the U.S. agencies working to recover Iraqi assets, (3) discuss the results of U.S. efforts, and (4) highlight challenges in asset recovery. To address these issues, we reviewed documents and statements from the Departments of the Treasury, State, Defense, and Justice on the asset recovery effort, the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA)1 in Iraq on the funds transferred to Iraq, and the United Nations on the Oil for Food Program. We met with U.S. officials working on the recovery effort, including officials from the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), analysts from U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies, financial regulators, and representatives from U.S. financial institutions responsible for implementing U.S. orders to freeze and transfer blocked Iraqi assets. We have yet to review the reliability of the data provided by the Department of the Treasury and the CPA.
1The CPA is the U.N.-recognized coalition authority, led by the United States and the United
Kingdom, responsible for the temporary governance of Iraq.
Page 2 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
* We estimate that from 1997 through 2002, the former Iraqi regime acquired $10.1 billion in illegal revenues related to the Oil for Food Program--$5.7 billion in oil smuggled out of Iraq and $4.4 billion in illicit surcharges on oil sales and commissions from suppliers. This estimate is higher than our reported May 2002 estimate of $6.6 billion because it includes 2002 data from oil revenues and contracts under the Oil for Food Program, newer estimates of illicit commissions from commodity suppliers. 2
* The United States has tapped the services of several U.S. agencies and used recently developed domestic and international tools in its efforts to recover Iraqi assets worldwide. Led by the Department of the Treasury, about 20 government entities have combined efforts to identify, freeze, and transfer the former regime's assets to Iraq. The United States also used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), as amended by provisions in the USA PATRIOT Act of 2001, to confiscate the property of the former Iraqi regime under U.S. jurisdiction and vest the assets in the U.S. Treasury. Finally, U.N. Security Council Resolution 1483 required all U.N. members to freeze without delay and immediately transfer assets of the former Iraqi regime to the new Development Fund for Iraq (DFI).
* U.S. efforts to recover Iraqi assets have had varying results.
* In March 2003, the U.S. government quickly took control of Iraq'sassets in the United States. From May to September 2003, the United States transferred $1.7 billion to Iraq to help pay for the salaries of Iraqi civil servants, ministry operations, and pensions. The United States also transferred $192 million to the DFI in July 2003. Most of the vested funds have been spent on reconstruction.
* Within Iraq, U.S. military and coalition forces seized about $926 million of the regime's assets. The CPA used these funds for Iraqi projects, ministry operations, and liquefied petroleum gas purchases.
* Other countries froze about $3.7 billion of Iraqi regime assets in compliance with U.N. Security Council resolutions. As of March 2004, Treasury reported that more than 10 countries and the Bank 2U.S. General Accounting Office, Weapons of Mass Destruction: U.N. Confronts Significant Challenges in implementing Sanctions Against Iraq, GAO-02-625 (Washington, DC.: May 23, 2002).
Summary
Page 3 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
for International Settlements had transferred approximately $751 million to the DFI. State Department and Treasury officials continue to work diplomatically with other countries to expedite the transfer of remaining Iraqi assets.
* Little progress has been made in identifying and freezing additional Iraqi assets that remain hidden. While the amount of hidden assets accumulated by the former Iraqi regime is unknown, estimates range from $10 billion to $40 billion in illicit earnings.
* The United States faces key challenges in recovering Iraq's assets. First, recovering the former regime's assets was not initially a high priority in the overall U.S. effort in Iraq. Second, U.S. expectations for the quick transfer of funds may have been overly optimistic given the legal capabilities of some countries. Third, the impending transfer of sovereignty to an interim Iraqi government may further complicate U.S. efforts to locate and recover assets of the former regime.
In August 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait, and the United Nations imposed sanctions against the regime. Security Council Resolution 661 of 1990, prohibited all nations from buying Iraqi oil and selling Iraq any commodities except food or medicines. The resolution also required member states to block the transfer of Iraqi assets from their countries. Consistent with this resolution, the President froze all Iraq's assets held in the United States. Other nations similarly froze Iraqi government assets in their countries.
In 1991, the Security Council offered to let Iraq sell oil under a U.N. program to meet its peoples' basic needs. The Iraqi government rejected the offer and, over the next 5 years, food shortages and a general deterioration in social services were reported.
In December 1996, the United Nations and Iraq agreed on the Oil for Food Program, which allowed Iraq to sell a set amount of oil to pay for food, medicine, and infrastructure repairs. The United Nations monitored and screened contracts that the Iraqi government signed with commodity suppliers. Iraq's oil revenue was placed in a U.N.-controlled escrow account. From 1997 through 2002, Iraq sold more than $67 billion of oil through the U.N. program and issued $38 billion in letters of credit for humanitarian goods. In May 2003, the Security Council passed Resolution 1483, which recognized the United States, Great Britain, and coalition partners as the authority for providing security and provisional
Background
Page 4 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
administration in Iraq. The resolution also ended the sanctions, except for the prohibition on exporting arms to Iraq.
We estimate that, from 1997 through 2002, the former Iraqi regime acquired $10.1 billion in illegal revenues related to the Oil for Food Program--$5.7 billion through oil smuggling and $4.4 billion through surcharges against oil sales and illicit commissions from commodity suppliers.3 This estimate is higher than the $6.6 billion we reported in May 2002.4 We updated this estimate to include (1) oil revenue and contract amounts for 2002, (2) updated letters of credit from prior years, and (3) newer estimates of illicit commissions from commodity suppliers. Oil was smuggled out through several routes, according to U.S. government officials and oil industry experts. Oil entered Syria by pipeline, crossed the borders of Jordan and Turkey by truck, and was smuggled through the Persian Gulf by ship. In addition to revenues from oil smuggling, the Iraqi government levied surcharges against oil purchasers and commissions against commodity suppliers participating in the Oil for Food Program. According to some Security Council members, the surcharge was up to 50 cents per barrel of oil and the commission was 5 to 10 percent of the commodity contract. The funds were paid directly to officials connected with the Iraqi government. In addition, according to a Department of Defense (DOD) official, a DOD report in September 2003 evaluated 759 contracts funded and approved under the Oil for Food Program. The study found that at least 48 percent of the contracts were overpriced and that on average the contracts were overpriced by 21 percent.
3This estimate is in 2003 U.S. constant dollars.
4U.S. General Accounting Office, Weapons of Mass Destruction: U.N. Confronts Significant Challenges in implementing Sanctions Against Iraq, GAO-02-625 (Washington, DC.: May 23, 2002).
Estimated Revenue Obtained Illegally by the Former Iraqi Regime from the Oil for Food Program Exceeds $10 Billion
Page 5 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
The United States has tapped the services of several U.S. agencies and used recently developed U.S. and international authorities in its efforts to recover Iraqi assets worldwide. About 20 entities, including those of the Departments of the Treasury, Homeland Security, Defense, Justice, State, intelligence agencies, law enforcement agencies, and the White House National Security Council, are involved in recovering Iraqi assets. To lead the asset recovery efforts, the United States created an interagency coordinating body headed by the Department of the Treasury. The Iraqi Assets Working Group has developed a strategy to identify, freeze, seize, and transfer former regime assets to Iraq. The working group's goals are to:
* Exploit documents and key financial figures in Iraq to better understand fund flows;
* Secure the cooperation of jurisdictions through which illicit funds have flowed so that working group members may exploit financial records and uncover the money trail;
* Secure the cooperation of jurisdictions in which illicit assets may reside to locate, freeze, and repatriate the assets;
* Engage the financial community in the hunt for illicit assets generally, and specifically secure the cooperation of the financial institutions through which illicit funds have flowed or may still reside;
* Develop a system to facilitate the fluid repatriation of funds; and
* Prepare for potential sanctions against uncooperative jurisdictions and financial institutions. The working group is leveraging the expertise of U.S. officials involved in efforts to recover assets of terrorists and money launderers. The U.S. Congress recently passed legislation containing provisions that allowed the President to confiscate foreign funds frozen in U.S. financial institutions. Specifically, provisions in the USA PATRIOT Act of 2001 amended IEEPA to allow the President to confiscate foreign property subject to U.S. jurisdiction in times of "on-going hostilities" or if the United States is attacked. These provisions gave the President the necessary authority, through an Executive Order, to confiscate the property of the former Iraqi regime and to vest these assets in the U.S. Treasury.
U.S. Efforts to Recover Iraqi Assets Involve Many Agencies and Use Recently Developed Domestic and International Authorities
Page 6 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
In addition, the State Department cited U.N. Security Council Resolution 1483 as an important vehicle for requiring other countries to transfer assets to Iraq. On May 22, 2003, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 1483, which (1) noted the establishment of the DFI, a special account in the name of the Central Bank of Iraq; and (2) required member states to freeze and immediately transfer to the DFI all assets of the former Iraqi government and of Saddam Hussein, senior officials of his regime and their family members. The resolution also included a unique immunity provision to protect the assets from new claims.
In 2003, the U.S. government quickly vested Iraq's assets held in the United States and transferred them to Iraq. Similarly, the U.S. military, in coordination with U.S. law enforcement agencies, seized assets of the former regime in Iraq. The CPA has used most of the vested and seized assets for reconstruction projects and ministry operations. U.S. officials noted that some other countries' efforts to transfer Iraqi funds have been slowed by their lack of implementing legislation. There has been little progress in recovering the regime's hidden assets. In 2003, the United States vested about $1.9 billion of the former regime's assets in the U.S. Treasury. Between May and December, the United States transferred more than $1.7 billion to Iraq and $192 million to the DFI. The United States had the necessary legal authorities to make the transfers quickly.
On August 2, 1990, in compliance with a Presidential Executive Order, the Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued regulations to financial institutions requiring them to freeze Iraqi assets in the United States. More than 30 banks in the United States identified and frozeaccounts with $1.4 billion in Iraqi assets.5 These institutions held assets in accounts that accumulated interest.
In March 2003, the President used authorities, including the enhanced authority in IEEPA, as amended by provisions in the USA PATRIOT Act, to issue a new executive order to confiscate or take ownership of Iraqi assets held by U.S. financial institutions and vest them in the U.S. Treasury. 5In addition, according to OFAC, more than $480 million was frozen in U.S. financial institutions abroad.
U.S. Efforts to Recover the Former Iraqi Regime's Assets Have Had Varying Results The United States Transferred Nearly $1.9 Billion in Vested Assets to Iraq
Page 7 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
According to Treasury and Federal Reserve officials, Treasury instructed the Federal Reserve Bank to release portions of the funds to DOD upon the Office of Management and Budget's approval of DOD's spending plans. As of March 2004, the CPA had spent about $1.67 billion of the $1.9 billion for emergency needs, including salaries for civil servants and pensions, and for ministry operations.
CPA informed us in March 2004 that the U.S. military, in coordination with U.S. law enforcement agencies had seized about $926 million of the regime's assets in Iraq. The U.S. military seized about $894 million in Iraqi bonds, U.S. dollars, euros, and Iraqi dinars, as well as quantities of gold and jewelry. This amount included $750,000 found with Saddam Hussein when he was captured. Department of Homeland Security agents seized an additional $32 million. The CPA is authorized to use these seized funds for humanitarian and reconstruction efforts. As of March 2004, the CPA had used $752 million for reconstruction activities, including projects, ministry operations, and liquefied petroleum gas purchases.
According to Treasury, other countries have frozen about $3.7 billion in Iraqi assets. Treasury officials reported that, as of March 2004, more than 10 countries and the Bank for International Settlements have transferred $751 million to the DFI. Treasury officials noted that the remaining assets have not been transferred to the DFI because some countries do not have the necessary legislation to affect the transfer or are holding about $1 billion to adjudicate claims. U.N. Security Council Resolution 1483 requires the immediate transfer of Iraqi funds identified and frozen in these accounts to the DFI.
To encourage other countries to transfer the funds to Iraq, the Secretary of the Treasury requested that the international community identify and freeze all assets of the former regime. Additionally, Treasury and State officials said that they have engaged in diplomatic efforts to encourage countries to report and transfer the amounts of Iraqi assets that they had frozen. For example, since March 2003, State officials told us that they have sent more than 400 cables to other countries requesting that they transfer funds to the DFI.
According to U.S. officials, Treasury and State continue to leverage the U.S. government's diplomatic relations with finance ministries and central The United States Seized
More Than $900 Million in Iraq Other Countries Have Transferred $751 Million to the DFI
Page 8 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
banks to encourage the transfer of Iraqi assets to the DFI, according to Treasury officials. Some of the remaining frozen funds are located in financial institutions in Iraq's neighboring countries or Europe. Little progress has been made in recovering the former Iraqi regime's hidden assets. Because the former Iraqi regime used a network of front companies, trusts, and cash accounts in the names of the regime family members and associates, it has been difficult to identify how much remains hidden in the international financial system. U.S. government officials have cited estimates ranging from $10 billion to $40 billion in illicit earnings.
According to U.S. government officials, U.S. government asset recovery efforts have focused on exploiting documents in Iraq, interviewing key financial figures, and convincing other countries to cooperate in identifying and freezing illicit funds that have flowed through or still reside in their countries. For example, Department of Homeland Security agents have exploited Central Bank of Iraq records for leads regarding Saddam Hussein's procurement network. Internal Revenue Service criminal investigators have conducted interviews of former finance ministry individuals and exploited financial documents of the regime to obtain leads on the location of targeted assets. The Defense Intelligence Agency provides some of the research and analysis used to identify assets of the former Iraqi regime. In addition, according to Treasury and State officials, they are coordinating efforts to gain the cooperation of other countries. For example, State officials said that U.S. investigators have identified 500 accounts that potentially belonged to the former regime in other countries. State is working through their overseas embassies to get the cooperation of these countries to return the funds to the DFI.
The U.S. government has faced key challenges to recovering the assets of the former Iraqi regime.
First, recovering the former regime's assets was not initially a high priority in the overall U.S. effort in Iraq. As the need for additional resources to rebuild Iraq became apparent, the United States placed a higher priority on recovering the former regime's assets. According to U.S. government officials, recovering the former Iraqi regime's assets became the U.S. government's third priority behind the hunt for weapons of mass destruction and security in September 2003. In addition, Internal Revenue
Little Progress Has Been Made in Recovering Hidden Assets of the Former Iraqi Regime Challenges to Transferring Frozen Assets and Locating the Hidden Assets
Page 9 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
Service agents stated that DOD's post-war plans and priorities did not include protection of financial documents or other information that could have provided leads on the location of the former regime's assets. Second, U.S. expectations for the quick transfer of funds under U.N. Security Council Resolution 1483 may have been overly optimistic given the lack of legal capabilities of some countries to do so. In June 2003, State and Treasury officials said that the U.N. resolution included unique provisions that afforded the United States and the international community with an opportunity to quickly recover Iraqi assets worldwide. The resolution required all U.N. members to freeze without delay assets of the former Iraqi regime and immediately transfer them to the DFI. Many of the member states that had frozen Iraqi government assets in 1991 did not immediately transfer the assets to the DFI.
U.S. officials stated that many countries needed to adopt additional legislation to implement the U.N. requirements and transfer the funds to the DFI. According to U.S. government officials, some U.N. member countries have developed the authorities, institutions, and mechanisms to freeze assets of targeted terrorists, but others had not developed similar mechanisms for targeted regimes. U.S. government officials also stated that some countries did not have the administrative capabilities and financial mechanisms to transfer the frozen assets. U.S. officials did not have a central repository of other countries' laws and regulations related to transferring Iraqi assets. Furthermore, according to U.S. officials, despite the immunity provision included in the U.N. resolution, some countries are delaying transfer of funds until all claims have been settled. Third, the impending transfer of sovereignty to an interim Iraqi government on June 30, 2004, may further complicate U.S. efforts to locate and recover assets of the former regime. It is uncertain whether the new government will allow the United States to continue its hunt for the former regime's assets. The future transitional government has yet to conclude agreements regarding the activities of the multi-national force, which may include the right to interview Iraqi officials and exploit documents. In addition, it is also uncertain whether other countries will transfer their remaining funds to the DFI when the interim government assumes authority over it. Madam Chairwoman and Members of the Subcommittee, this concludes our prepared statement. We will be happy to answer any questions you may have.
Page 10 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
For questions regarding this testimony, please call Joseph Christoff at (202) 512-8979 or Davi M. D'Agostino at (202) 512-5431. Other key contributors to this statement were Thomas Conahan, Lynn Cothern, Philip Farah, Rachel DeMarcus, Ronald Ito, Barbara Keller, Sarah Lynch, Zina Merritt, Tetsuo Miyabara, Marc Molino, and Mark Speight.
Contacts and
Acknowledgments
Page 11 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets Appendix I: Roles of U.S. Entities In Recovering Iraqi Assets Asset location United States Assets $1.92 billion Frozen and transferred $1.67 billion Funds disbursed in Iraq Current status Department of the Treasury Executive Office of the President Coalition Provisional Authority Entity Agency/Office/Subdivision Role Office of Foreign Assets Control Executive Office for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crime Froze assets in 1990, directed financial institutions to transfer these assets to Treasury account in 2003. Leads interagency Iraq Task Force Working Group for Tracking and Recovery of Iraqi Assets (Iraqi Assets Working Group, IAWG).
Office of Management and Budget Approves CPA spending requests of vested funds.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Maintains Treasury's vested account. As directed by Treasury, released the vested
funds to the Department of Defense and the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA). Approves and manages the obligation and expenditure of vested funds.
Coalition Provisional Authority Approves and, with DOD, manages the obligation and expenditure of seized funds.
Asset location
Iraq Assets $926 million Seized $752 million Funds disbursed in Iraq Current status Department of Defense Entity Agency/Office/Subdivision Role
Military identified and seized assets in U.S. dollar, euro, and dinar currency notes;
gold, jewelry, and Iraqi bonds.
Department of Homeland Security Bureau of Immigration and Customs Enforcement
Secret Service
Assisted the military in the identification and seizure of assets. Seized an additional $32 million.
Determined the authenticity of seized assets.
Source: GAO.
Page 12 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
(320262)
Asset location Other countires Assets $3.7 billion Identified and frozen $751 million Transferred to the Development Fund for Iraqa Current status Department of the Treasury Entity Agency/Office/Subdivision Role
Office of Foreign Assets Control Coordinates with State and Justice on potential asset designations.
International Affairs Tracks the status of assets frozen in and transferred from other countries.
Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs and International Organizations Undertake diplomatic efforts to encourage other governments to implement UN Resolution 1483. Bureau of Intelligence and Research and Regional Bureaus Collect and analyze economic and other information on Iraq and its neighboring countries Department of State U.S. Mission to the United Nations Negotiated consensus on UN Resolution 1483. Submits potential freezing designations to the United Nations. Financial Institutions Identify, freeze, and transfer assets to the Development Fund for Iraq. Coordinates with State on outreach to foreign government officials, including finance ministries. Executive Office for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crime Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs and overseas embassies Undertake diplomatic efforts to encourage other governments to follow up on leads and freeze assets. U.S. Mission to the United Nations Encourages UN members to identify, freeze, and transfer assets. Asset location Global Assets $Unknownb Hidden Iraqi assets ? Current status Department of the Treasury Department of State Internal Revenue Service Criminal Investigation Division Defense Intelligence Agency Department of Defense Department of Homeland Security Entity Agency/Office/Subdivision Role Executive Office for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crime
Reviews documents and interviews individuals connected to Saddam Hussein's finances, front companies, and account transactions; provides leads to embassies and to other governments and financial institutions. Provides research and analysis used to identify assets of the former Iraqi regime.
Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Special Operations and Low-intensity Conflict Work with the IAWG to facilitate activities in Iraq, including providing logistical support to Treasury investigators. Source: GAO.
Coordinates U.S. efforts to locate additional hidden assets.
Identify and track financial assets related to the Central Bank of Iraq. Bureau of Immigration and Customs EnforcementThis is a work of the U.S. government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. It may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without further permission from GAO. However, because this work may contain copyrighted images or other material, permission from the copyright holder may be necessary if you wish to reproduce this material separately.
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Posted by maximpost at 5:50 PM EST
Permalink
Thursday, 18 March 2004

>> PROGRESS REPORT

U.S. Conducts Successful MD Simulation Against NK Missile Attack
The United States, which will start work on a missile defense system late this year, put on a war game for reporters Wednesday (Korea time) during which an enemy nation modeled on North Korea fired six ballistic missiles at the United States, the Washington Post Internet edition reported. During the simulation, the U.S. successfully intercepted all six missiles.
The U.S. Department of Defense, in order to reveal some of the plans for operating procedures behind MD, invited reporters to an air force base in the grasslands of Colorado and simulated the intercepting of missiles launched from an enemy country. The base is responsible for designing a missile defense simulation known as MDWAR and training MD operating crews.
In the simulation, a fictional nation located in the East Sea (Sea of Japan) launched six ballistic missiles at the United States. The Americans responded immediately by launching interceptor missiles, destroying all the enemy missiles in mid-flight. Two enemy missiles were destroyed early after launch.
The tensest moment came when it came time to shoot down two enemy missiles targeting Boise, Idaho and Anchorage, Alaska. The United States had only one spare missile, and in case both interceptors missed, it would bring about an urgent situation in which the Americans would be forced to choose which city they would try to save. Both interceptors hit their targets, however, and an intolerable choice was avoided.
U.S. military officials said that factors like population would be taken into consideration if such a choice came up in real life.
Meanwhile, officials say that one of the goals of the computer simulation is to show the "urgency" involved in missile defense. A ballistic missile launched from North Korea would take about 25~30 minutes to reach the northwest of the United States, and about eight of those minutes are taken up trying to find out the missile targets and computing trajectories for the interceptors.
Moreover, the U.S. military command structure surrounding missile defense is quite complicated, officials added, and during a real-life conflict could produce problems.
(Robert Koehler, englishnews@chosun.com )

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NK Threatens to Expand Nuclear Arsenal
North Korea has again threatened to expand its nuclear arsenal, accusing the United States of making aggressive moves against the communist government in Pyongyang.
The official North Korean news agency said Pyongyang will strengthen what it called its "nuclear deterrent" to protect itself. This comes as the United States and South Korea are preparing for joint annual military exercises that begin Sunday and run through the following week. About 37,000 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea to deter aggression from the North. Pyongyang says the joint exercises are a rehearsal for a U.S. invasion of North Korea, but the U.S. military counters by saying the exercises are defense-oriented.
North Korea often issues threats on the eve of joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States. Pyongyang previously threatened to strengthen its nuclear program after a second round of multi-party talks in Beijing last month ended without a breakthrough.
China announced Tuesday it has circulated a draft plan for advancing the limited progress made at those talks. It did not reveal details of the proposal, except to say it covers the working groups all sides agreed to in Beijing. The Beijing talks ended with a pledge to create working groups that would talk through obstacles and issues not deemed appropriate for the high-level agenda.
VOA News

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>> RUSSIAN FRIENDS...
Higher-tech missiles feared in Iraqi hands
By Bryan Bender, Globe Staff, 3/18/2004
WASHINGTON -- The Pentagon is investigating whether new, more deadly versions of Russian missiles may be in the hands of Iraqi insurgents, possibly enabling them to shoot down US Army helicopters and threaten other aircraft, according to defense officials studying missile components retrieved from recent crash sites and seized in raids.
US military officials thought they were well prepared for the variety of shoulder-fired missiles utilized by Saddam Hussein's forces, mainly missiles manufactured in the Soviet Union during the Cold War. For years American intelligence officials gathered technical information on a variety of portable Russian missiles -- including the SA-7, SA-14, SA-16, and SA-18 -- in order to develop countermeasures, such as electronic jamming equipment and decoy flares.
But missile components and other weapon systems uncovered by US forces in Iraq have fueled suspicions that insurgents may have obtained more advanced weapons, not previously known to US intelligence, that can confuse helicopters' electronic defenses or overcome attempts to send them off course, the officials said.
Nine helicopters have been lost to enemy missiles, rocket-propelled grenades, and small arms fire -- costing the lives of 32 soldiers -- since the US-led invasion last March. Several airplanes flying into Baghdad International Airport have also been hit by missiles, but managed to land safely.
"There is nothing conclusive, but it is a matter of importance," a US defense official said of the investigation, confirmed by other US officials who also declined to be identified, citing security precautions. "There's a constant process of assessing our countermeasures because everyone wants our troops to be safe."
The officials said investigators have been piecing together parts of missiles in an effort to determine why they were not deflected by aircraft jamming equipment, intended to thwart the missiles' computerized tracking systems, or decoy flares, designed to provide an alternative target for heat-seeking missiles.
Specialists in helicopters believe it is highly unlikely that insurgents could have downed nine helicopters without more advanced technology than had been previously in the Iraqi arsenal. But the official added that "we have not found anything that we have conclusively determined has been modified."
Still, concerns about new missile technology played a part in the Army's decision last month to terminate the multibillion-dollar Comanche helicopter program and apply the money to finding new ways to protect the existing helicopter fleet, the officials said. Of particular concern are the helicopters flown by the National Guard and Reserve, which do not have the same level of protection as the active force but are being widely used in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Officials are also probing how advanced technology -- almost certainly developed over the last 10 years in Russia -- might have gotten into the hands of Iraqi insurgents.
In particular, officials are concerned that insurgents may have newer versions of two deadly Russian missiles, the SA-16 Gimlet and the SA-18 Grouse, both portable surface-to-air missiles similar to the US military's Stinger, officials and military analysts said.
The leading theory among some specialists is that Russia may have sold the new technology to other nations, and that Hussein obtained it on the international black market.
"The idea that somehow through a wink and a nod this is showing up in Iraq is not surprising," said Tim Brown, a senior fellow at GlobalSecurity.org, an Alexandria, Va., think tank. "It could be an SA-18 or an SA-16 that [the Russians] sold to someone else and was transhipped to Iraq. It could be a new version smuggled in through the black market."
At the start of the Iraq war, the United States believed Hussein's forces had acquired thousands of SA-7 surface-to-air missiles, an older and less sophisticated version that is visually aimed, as well as an unknown number of subsequent models, such as the SA-14, SA-16, and SA-18. But Pentagon officials were confident all could be thwarted by existing antimissile technology on US helicopters.
Now, with nine helicopters having been downed, senior officials are increasingly worried. In internal discussions, the Army Chief of Staff, General Peter Schoomaker, has repeatedly mentioned the growing threat of Russian-made missiles as a key reason why manufacturing a new helicopter -- the Comanche -- was unwise, officials said.
"What we're seeing on the battlefield is a proliferation of much more sophisticated missiles," Lieutenant General Richard A. Cody, the deputy Army chief of staff, told reporters on Feb. 24 when the service announced it was canceling the $39 billion Comanche project after nearly two decades of development.
In recent months, the Army has taken measures in Iraq to enhance helicopter defenses, such as varying flight patterns and altitudes. But if pilots fly low to avoid missiles such as the SA models, which are designed to strike aircraft at higher altitudes, they become more vulnerable to lower-tech rocket-propelled grenades, which have been responsible for some of the helicopter losses.
According to Loren Thompson, president of the Lexington Institution, an Arlington, Va., think tank that specializes in weapons developments, helicopter and aircraft crews face at least two enduring challenges: the possibility that new weapon systems are available to the enemy that can filter out American countermeasures and the likelihood that the weapons the US spy community already knew were in Iraq performed better than anticipated.
Concluded Thompson: "The pilots have to have some idea of the adversary and how they are likely to be equipped."

? Copyright 2004 Globe Newspaper Company.
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>> SYRIANS MOONING...

Syrian: Antiterrorism cooperation has fallen
WASHINGTON - (AP) -- Syria's ambassador said Wednesday that counterterrorism cooperation with the United States has declined since Congress approved sanctions on his country late last year.
Ambassador Imad Moustapha said the sanctions bill did not diminish Syria's interest in cooperating with the United States, but some U.S. officials ``feel very anxious when Syria cooperates on terrorism because their premise is that Syria is a terrorist country.''
U.S. officials didn't make a decision to reduce cooperation, ''but the communications started to fall down. However, we are trying now to reestablish our cooperation on this,'' he said. Moustapha made his comments during and after a forum on whether Israel also should be subjected to a sanctions bill.

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Report: Saddam's Government Stole $10.1B
By MARY DALRYMPLE
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Report: Saddam's Government Stole $10.1B
WASHINGTON (AP) -
Saddam Hussein's government smuggled oil, added surcharges and collected kickbacks to rake in $10.1 billion in violation of the United Nations' oil-for-food program, congressional investigators said Thursday.
The estimate, much larger than previous calculations, comes as the United Nations considers expanding its probe into the humanitarian program, which allowed Iraq to sell oil for food and medicine. Other oil sales were prohibited under a U.N. embargo imposed after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990.
Investigators from the General Accounting Office told a congressional subcommittee that Iraq collected $5.7 billion by illegally smuggling oil out of the country through several routes. The oil traveled to Syria by pipeline, across the borders of Jordan and Turkey by truck and through the Persian Gulf by ship.
Surcharges levied against oil producers and commissions imposed against commodity suppliers participating in the oil-for-food program fetched another $4.4 billion.
The GAO had previously estimated that Saddam's government had received $6.6 billion in illegal revenues from the program from 1997 through 2002.
The effort to identify and recover Iraqi money hidden worldwide has met with mixed success, GAO investigators told lawmakers on the House Financial Services oversight and investigations subcommittee.
The Treasury Department acted Thursday to freeze the assets of 16 family members related to Saddam and his top advisers. The list includes Saddam's wives Sajida Khayrallah Tilfa and Samira Shahbandar; his daughters Raghad Saddam Hussein al-Tikriti, Rana Saddam Hussein al-Tikriti and Hala Saddam Hussein al-Tikriti; and his son Ali Saddam Hussein al-Tikriti.
The Treasury Department also identified 191 quasi-governmental companies suspected of engaging in illegal commerce and hiding money abroad.
The Treasury Department submitted the information to the United Nations, triggering a resolution that calls on member nations to freeze and transfer the assets held by those individuals and companies.
Juan Zarate, the Treasury Department's deputy assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes, told the House subcommittee that some countries do not have the legal structure or "political will" to recover the money.
In the last year, countries other than the United States have recovered and sent about $750 million to the Development Fund for Iraq. Money in the Development Fund for Iraq has been spent on wheat purchases, electricity and oil infrastructure, equipment for Iraqi security forces, Iraqi civil service salaries and government operations.
About $1.3 billion in cash and valuables have been recovered in Iraq.
The amount of money the former Iraqi regime hid abroad remains unknown, and estimates range from $10 billion to $40 billion.
"One of the conundrums of this effort has been trying to understand and get a hold on the full universe of assets pilfered by the Hussein regime," Zarate said.

------------------------------------------------------

Astronauts Try to Save Hubble Telescope
By MARCIA DUNN
ASSOCIATED PRESS
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) -
They risked their lives for the Hubble Space Telescope and did so gladly. Now, many of the astronauts who worked on Hubble hundreds of miles above Earth are dismayed, bewildered or both by NASA's decision to pull the plug on the mighty observatory.
"I just think it's a huge, huge mistake," says Greg Harbaugh, who performed Hubble repairs during a pair of spacewalks in 1997. "It is probably the greatest instrument or tool for astronomical and astrophysical research since Galileo invented the telescope, and I think it is a tragedy that we would consider not keeping the Hubble alive and operational as long as possible."
Though the decision is not absolute, there appears to be little chance NASA administrator Sean O'Keefe will change his mind about a Hubble servicing mission, deeming it too risky to astronauts in the wake of Columbia.
That would mean a premature death for the 14-year-old observatory whose latest snapshot - revealed last week - showed the deepest-ever view of the universe, a mishmash of galaxies dating almost all the way back to creation.
Tom Akers, part of the spacewalking team that restored Hubble's eyesight in 1993, also favors another mission.
"I definitely think that's an asset that we shouldn't throw away," says Akers, who teaches college math in Missouri. "That's my position and they know it."
NASA has been fending off heavy criticism ever since O'Keefe decided in January to cancel the last servicing, set for 2006.
Last week, at congressional urging, O'Keefe agreed to ask the National Academy of Sciences to study the issue from all perspectives, including using robots to install new cameras or augment battery power.
But he does not expect to reconsider sending up astronauts despite the outcry.
An Internet petition has collected thousands of names, O'Keefe's e-mail system is clogged with complaints, members of Congress are demanding reviews by independent groups, and the chief Columbia accident investigator is urging a public policy debate on the Hubble gains versus shuttle risks.
Even John Glenn has weighed in, telling President Bush's commission on moon and Mars travel that another servicing mission is necessary "to get every year's value out of that thing."
The canceled servicing mission would have been the Hubble's fifth and would have equipped it with two state-of-the-art science instruments already built and worth a combined $176 million, as well as fresh batteries and gyroscopes. The work by spacewalkers would have kept Hubble humming until 2011 or 2012.
Without intervention, Hubble will probably take its last picture in 2007 or 2008. O'Keefe says he does not see how NASA could launch a servicing mission before then without shirking the recommendations of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board.
As an alternative, engineers are trying to figure out how to prolong the telescope's life with robotic help.
NASA is quick to point out that when Hubble was launched, 15 years of service were promised, a goal that will be met next spring. The space telescope has helped scientists gauge the age and size of the universe and confirmed the existence of black holes.
Regardless of Hubble's merit, O'Keefe says he cannot let astronauts fly to the telescope and risk being stuck there if their shuttle is damaged by foam or other launch debris.
There's no way a stranded shuttle crew could get from Hubble to the international space station in an entirely different orbit.
The NASA chief insists his decision is rooted in safety, and he's recruited the agency's chief scientist, John Grunsfeld, a two-time Hubble space repairman, to help defend his decision.
Yet eyebrows were raised given the timing of the announcement: It came two days after President Bush unveiled a plan to complete the space station and retire the shuttle by 2010, and to send astronauts back to the moon by 2020.
Glenn worries the Columbia accident may be making NASA gun-shy.
Harbaugh, now director of the Florida Air Museum, says he felt no more danger flying to Hubble than anywhere else in space. There is little difference, he says, "in risk between launching to Hubble and launching to station and just launching period."
Astronomers would be at a loss if Hubble is abandoned and its powerful replacement, the James Webb Space Telescope, is lost in a rocket explosion or has crippling design flaws. That's why so many would rather wait to decommission Hubble until Webb is launched, now set for 2011.
While NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory and Spitzer Space Telescope see the universe in X-ray and infrared, respectively, Hubble observes visible light and peeks into the ultraviolet and near-infrared. Webb will focus on the infrared and outdo Hubble with a mirror more than double its size.
Astronauts - Hubble repairmen included, who say they would do it again - like to point out that a ship is safe in the harbor, but that's not what ships are built for.
Says Bruce McCandless, who helped deliver Hubble to orbit and now works in industry: "John Paul Jones is also reported to have said, 'Give me a fast ship for I intend to sail in harm's way.' He wasn't going to sit in the harbor, either."
On the Net:
NASA: http://hubble.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Save Hubble Initiative: www.savethehubble.com

---------------------------------------------------

>> POLICY WATCH

Government Warns of Drug Card Scams
By DEVLIN BARRETT
ASSOCIATED PRESS
WASHINGTON (AP) - For many Americans, the government's new Medicare drug discount card will be a way to save money. For a few, it is a way to make money - by scamming seniors.
The much-anticipated Medicare program to offer cards with discounts on prescription drugs won't begin until May, but 11 states already have seen cases in which con artists are targeting Medicare beneficiaries in fraudulent come-ons, officials said Thursday.
"It's so appalling these individuals are willing to create schemes that take advantage ... of a law intended to do so much good," said Leslie Norwalk, deputy administrator at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
Scams so far have involved phone calls or door to door solicitations to ostensibly register people for the new program. Those behind the scams offer to enroll seniors in exchange for their bank information, social security number, or credit card number.
In other instances, the caller already has some of the individual's private health history and tries to collect their banking or Medicare information, which could then be used to file false claims.
People have complained about such scams in Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Maryland, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia and Washington, officials said. Officials in Arkansas have also warned seniors to be on guard against such pitches.
There is no reason to think the scams are connected, but the con artists take a common approach in trying to fool the victims, officials said.
"They will do all sorts of things to try to make the beneficiaries trust them," said Norwalk. "They're eliciting enough information to be able to extract money from the (victim's) account."
Seniors should be on guard against phone or personal solicitations, officials warned. They stressed that Medicare contacts its beneficiaries only by mail.
The real cards will cost no more than $30 a year and offer discounts ranging from 10 to 25 percent on prescription drugs. The cards will eventually be phased out when a broad prescription drug benefit is made available in 2006.
Medicare plans to announce the companies selected to offer the cards in a matter of weeks, and then launch an advertising campaign in May to alert seniors to the benefit.
Norwalk, the administrator, emphasized that Medicare will never phone or knock on a beneficiary's door to enroll them in a program, and will only send mailings about the drug card.
She also cautioned seniors not to give out personal or financial information to people they don't know.
On the Net:
Medicare: http://www.medicare.gov

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Companies Benefit by Shifting Health Costs
By THERESA AGOVINO
ASSOCIATED PRESS
NEW YORK (AP) - Employers who aggressively shift health care costs to their employees expect lower levels of spending increases than the average company, and sharply less than firms without strict policies to make patients better consumers, a new study found.
Companies that have taken actions such as substantially increasing copayments and insurance policies or instituting insurance programs with high deductibles expect their health care costs to rise 7 percent this year.
Overall, companies costs are expected to rise 12 percent. But for companies that haven't been aggressive in cost-shifting, the increase should hit 17 percent, according to a study of by the National Business Group on Health, a nonprofit organization, and Watson Wyatt & Co, a benefits firm.
"As employers are spending more they want employees to act like true consumers," said Ted Chien, global practice director of group benefits for Watson Wyatt. He said that happens when employees have to spend more of their own dollars on health care.
Chien said employers with aggressive programs to contain health spending aren't simply shifting costs to employees. They are also providing employees with tools to help them make more informed decisions, such as offering programs dealing with chronic disease and information on various providers.
Still, Chien said he was suprised by how aggressive some employers were becoming. For example, 18 percent of employers were offering plans with very high deductibles without giving employees any kind of a fund to help pay for some medical costs.
Chien also noted a sharp downturn in companies changing health providers. Last year, 11 percent switched providers, down from 29 percent in 2002.
Chien said it is expensive for employers to switch plans, and often there isn't much difference between the insurers.
The study included 450 employers that provide benefits to more than 8 million employees.

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>> GITMO TROUBLES CONTINUED...

Guantanamo agent investigated
In probe of airman,document handling is again scrutinized
By John Mintz, Washington Post, 3/18/2004
WASHINGTON -- A military investigator who worked on the case of Air Force Senior Airman Ahmad I. Halabi, the Guantanamo Bay prison linguist charged with mishandling classified documents, is himself under investigation for allegedly having classified materials at his home, according to a government document. Last week, Air Force lawyers prosecuting Halabi asked the judge to exclude from the case any mention of the probe of Special Agent Marc Palmosina of the Air Force Office of Special Investigations. Palmosina's alleged misconduct is similar to some of the charges against Halabi.
The documents on compact discs at Palmosina's home did not concern the Halabi case, but instead focused on cargo transport operations, an area to which the agent had been assigned before he was sent to Guantanamo Bay, where the United States is holding more than 600 alleged Al Qaeda and Taliban operatives, the government document said.
Palmosina, who has been removed from work on the Halabi case, could not be reached for comment, and the Air Force declined to confirm whether he is being investigated or to provide the name of his attorney.
The Syrian-born Halabi, 25, who has been in detention at a California military base since last summer, is accused of illegally possessing letters from Guantanamo Bay detainees and other documents about the jail. He is also accused of espionage involving an alleged plan, apparently never carried out, to pass information to someone in Syria.
Halabi's lawyers have said he was in touch with the Syrian Embassy to secure a visa to travel there for his wedding.
Three other members of the military at Guantanamo Bay face breach of security allegations. Army Captain James Yee, the former Muslim chaplain there, is charged with mishandling classified material from the prison, adultery with a female officer there, and downloading pornographic material onto his laptop computer.
Army Reserve Colonel Jack Farr, who served in the Guantanamo Bay unit that interrogates detainees, was charged in November with mishandling classified material and lying to investigators after he was found with classified papers in his bags.
And Ahmed F. Mehalba, a Muslim linguist who worked as a prison contractor, faces charges in a federal court of lying to investigators and mishandling classified data after secret files about the prison were allegedly found on his computer when he landed at Boston's Logan International Airport on a flight from Egypt.

? Copyright 2004 Globe Newspaper Company.
---------------------------------------------------------------
WAR ON TERRORISM
Ex-detainee: I was a spy for the CIA
A former Guantanamo detainee, whose family has links to al Qaeda, claims he was a spy for the CIA.
BY DeNEEN L. BROWN
Washington Post Service
TORONTO - Abdurahman Khadr traced an invisible X in the dark air, the mark of an outcast in his own family, a man rejected by his friends.
'The Arabs have X'd me out. It's like, `You're done. . . . We don't want you around.' My family hates me now and my sister sent an e-mail saying I was a [expletive] liar,'' Khadr said in an interview last week.
Five months after being released from custody at the U.S. naval detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, Khadr, 21, has publicly claimed he was a CIA informant and provided U.S. authorities with detailed information about Osama bin Laden and the al Qaeda terrorist network.
TV DOCUMENTARY
Khadr's story was first broadcast last week in a two-part Canadian television documentary, in which he described the life of his family in an al Qaeda compound in Afghanistan, in close quarters with Osama bin Laden.
Khadr, whose father and brothers also are linked to al Qaeda, provided a rare insider's view of bin Laden's operations and daily routine.
A CIA spokesman had no comment about Khadr, and a spokesman for the Canadian intelligence service, CSIS, said, ``We don't publicly comment on who is of interest to us.''
Since the broadcast, Khadr said, he hasn't slept much and has been living in hotels in Toronto. He is fatalistic, he said, about what might happen to him.
''If they have someone outside right now who will shoot me, nothing will change by me worrying about it now,'' he said, seated in a Pakistani restaurant.
STRANGE STORY
Khadr's story is complicated, more so because he now says he has lied previously. Much of his tale could not be independently verified, largely because of intelligence agencies' unwillingness to corroborate the information.
U.S. and Canadian intelligence have long connected Khadr's family with international terrorism.
His father, Ahmed Said Khadr, was born in Egypt and immigrated to Canada in 1977, and later became an al Qaeda leader. In 1996, Pakistani authorities arrested him in connection with a bombing at the Egyptian Embassy in Islamabad.
After the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks, Ahmed Khadr was named on a U.S. international terrorist wanted list. He was reported killed on Oct. 2, 2003, in a gun battle with Pakistani troops near the Afghan border.
TRAINING CAMPS
Khadr has three brothers and two sisters. He said he and his brothers spent eight years in Afghan training camps. His eldest brother, Abdullah, is in hiding, said Khadr, who is the next oldest. The third brother, Omar, was arrested in Afghanistan in July 2002 and is held at Guantanamo, accused of throwing a grenade that killed a U.S. medic.
Karim, 14, wounded in the same gun battle that killed his father, is in custody in a Pakistani military hospital, Khadr said.
''The Khadrs are pretty infamous,'' said John Thompson, director of the MacKenzie Institute, a Toronto-based nonprofit organization that studies organized violence. ``There was intelligence before 9/11 that Khadr was a friend of bin Laden and was inside the al Qaeda command structure.''
Abdurahman Khadr was born in the Persian Gulf emirate of Bahrain and grew up in Toronto and Afghanistan, straddling the cultures of North America and the Muslim world. Although he has only an eighth-grade education, he said, he speaks five languages, including Canadian-accented English.
Khadr said his father moved the family in 1996 to an Afghan compound where Khadr first met bin Laden, whom he said he recognized from a magazine photograph. Bin Laden, Khadr recalled, despised American products and rejected many modern conveniences, including electricity.
`VERY SERIOUS'
''He is very serious and very concerned about the cause,'' Khadr said. ``He said America had destroyed our culture, our economy and destroyed our everyday living. We will do anything to make them leave Saudi Arabia.''
Although bin Laden was younger than many leaders in the compound, he was respected because he was rich, Khadr said. ``If he didn't have money, nobody would give a [expletive] about him.''
Khadr said he was captured in November 2001 by Afghanistan's Northern Alliance, a militia that cooperated with the United States against al Qaeda and the country's Taliban government.
He paid a $10,000 bribe to one of his captors to be freed but was held for more than two months before being transferred to U.S. custody, he said. The Americans asked questions about his father and brothers.
'They said, `We know your father has links. You cooperate and we will let you go,' '' he said. Khadr said he told them anything they wanted to hear.
''I told them my brother was a trainer at a training camp,'' Khadr said.
``That rumor was brought up by me when the Americans first got me. To boost my credibility with the CIA, I told them he was a trainer. But that was a lie. That was a mistake. I'm very sorry now. I said a bunch of other lies. I told them other detainees were al Qaeda.''
SPY AT GUANTANAMO
Khadr said the Americans sent him to Guantanamo to infiltrate the prison population, spy on prisoners and identify those who had spent time at training camps.
''I wasn't useful in the past because of my bad record with al Qaeda,'' he said. ``They thought I had ability in the future with all my languages.''
Khadr said CIA agents gave him a $5,000 bonus and a promise of $3,000 a month. They asked him to sign a document acknowledging his work, he said, but he did not keep a copy.
U.S. guards treated Guantanamo prisoners well, he said, but he was unhappy with the isolation and demanded his release.
``After three months in general population, I couldn't take it. I said I was going to tell the Canadians the next time they came to see my brother, if they did not let me out.''
SENT TO BOSNIA
In October, CIA officers sent him to Bosnia to spy on the Muslim community there, he said, but he still disliked working alone. By late November, he said, his CIA contacts agreed when he asked to return to Canada.
Since appearing on television, Khadr isn't anonymous in Toronto.
''I like attention,'' he said. ``I won't deny it. Sometimes it can cost you your life, but I like it.''

-----------------------------------------------

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Report criticizes Army Corps of Engineers
By MATTHEW DALY
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER
WASHINGTON -- A new report says an irrigation effort in Arkansas and a flood-control pump in Mississippi are among 29 wasteful projects of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
The report by the National Wildlife Federation and Taxpayers for Common Sense also singles out projects to deepen the Columbia River and transport salmon around four Snake River dams in the Pacific Northwest.
The Army Corps risks damaging the environment for little tangible economic benefit, says the report.
Corps spokesman Dave Hewitt said the projects are recommended only after they have been molded to represent a sound investment of federal, state and local dollars.
The report calls for Congress to reform the Army Corps, saying that despite efforts by three presidents to curtail projects by withholding funding, a lack of accountability has allowed the Corps to continue wasteful spending virtually unchecked.
In the face of "exploding deficits, Congress continues to spend like drunken sailors on gold-plated pork-barrel water projects," said Steve Ellis, vice president of Taxpayers for Common Sense.
The 29 projects would cost $12 billion and threaten more than 640,000 acres of wetlands and shoreline areas; about 6,500 miles of rivers and coastlines; eight national parks, seashores and wildlife refuges; and the Great Lakes, the report said.
The report calls special attention to the $319 million Grand Prairie Irrigation Project in eastern Arkansas, which seeks to build a pumping station to deliver river water to the heart of the country's largest rice-producing region.
The Bush administration declined to fund the pumping station project in the current 2004 budget or in the proposed 2005 spending plan, but Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., succeeded in securing $3.2 million late last year for the start of construction.
Terry Horton, executive director of the Arkansas Wildlife Federation, said the group will seek an injunction to stop work.
The corps is preparing its environmental impact statement on the Yazoo Backwater Pump project in Mississippi, which supporters say would protect more than 1,200 homes from flooding and improve farming for soybeans and other crops along the Big Sunflower River.
But critics say the $191 million project would destroy up to 200,000 acres of protected wetlands in the Mississippi Delta, as well as harm valuable bottom land hardwood.


Associated Press Writer David Hammer in Little Rock, Ark., contributed to this report.


On the Net:

Taxpayers for Common Sense: http://www.taxpayers.net

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers: http://www.usace.army.mil/

----------------------------------------------------------------
Feud may hinder Madrid bombing investigation
Date: March 19 2004
Spanish security sources believe bad blood with Morocco may hamper the investigation into the Moroccan terrorist cell that appears to be behind last week's train bombings in Spain that killed 201 people and injured more than 1750.
Spanish police have arrested three Moroccans thought to be linked to Islamic terrorist groups and have identified five more who are presumed perpetrators of the bombings.
On Wednesday they widened the hunt for a further 20 Moroccans thought by Morocco to have entered Spain illegally after a string of suicide bomb attacks in Casablanca last May.
But arguments between the two governments over the island of Perejil, fishing rights and illegal immigration had badly damaged co-ordination on known shared threats, the newspaper El Mundo quoted security sources as saying.
Relations between the two countries became further embittered during the tenure of the defeated prime minister, Jose Maria Aznar. The prime minister-elect, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, made sure that one of his first remarks was a pledge to improve Spain's relations with Morocco. He also said the Government would implement additional security measures and reiterated his intention to pull Spanish troops out of Iraq.
It has emerged that the explosive used in the 10 bombs in Madrid was goma-2 ECO dynamite made last February at Union of Spanish Explosives of Paramo de Masa in Burgos, northern Spain. Police are now investigating mines and quarries to discover how about 100 kilograms of the explosive disappeared.
The security services suspect the attacks were organised by the Moroccan Combat Islamic Group, thought to have been founded in Peshawar, Pakistan, in 1993 to which the main suspect to be arrested, Jamal Zougam, has links.
Some members of Mr Aznar's People's Party are saying the Madrid attacks were not necessarily reprisals for Spain's support for the war in Iraq but based on Islam's historic claim on Spain.
The three Moroccans and two Indians arrested in connection with the bombings were due to appear in court yesterday.
The US said on Wednesday that Spain had mishandled early information about the bombings when it played down evidence that Islamic extremists were behind the plot. Mr Zapatero, who opposed the war in Iraq, was trailing in the polls before the blasts, which Mr Aznar instantly blamed on Basque separatists.
The Telegraph, London; The New York Times

Posted by maximpost at 10:38 PM EST
Updated: Thursday, 18 March 2004 11:05 PM EST
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Whopper: John Kerry
Stop lying about your record!
By Timothy Noah
Posted Monday, March 15, 2004, at 3:15 PM PT

"I'm pretty tough on Castro, because I think he's running one of the last vestiges of a Stalinist secret police government in the world,'' Kerry told WPLG-ABC 10 reporter Michael Putney in an interview to be aired at 11:30 this morning.

Then, reaching back eight years to one of the more significant efforts to toughen sanctions on the communist island, Kerry volunteered: "And I voted for the Helms-Burton legislation to be tough on companies that deal with him."

--Peter Wallsten, "Kerry Stances on Cuba Open to Attack," in the March 14 Miami Herald

It seemed the correct answer in a year in which Democratic strategists think they can make a play for at least a portion of the important Cuban-American vote--as they did in 1996 when more than three in 10 backed President Clinton's reelection after he signed the sanctions measure written by Sen. Jesse Helms and Rep. Dan Burton.

There is only one problem: Kerry voted against it.

--Ibid.

(Thanks to reader John Giorgis.)

Discussion. Kerry aides told Wallsten that Kerry voted against the final bill because he disagreed with some technicalities added at the last minute, but that he voted for an earlier version of the bill. But every piece of legislation that comes before the Senate is subjected to a succession of votes, many of them tactical in nature. The only vote that counts is final passage. If it were otherwise, any legislator could claim to have voted for or against almost any bill, depending on the audience, and there would be no accountability at all.

There is no dishonor in saying, "I supported that bill initially, but some items were added to it that made it impossible for me to continue that support." Instead, Kerry lied, as is his wont.
----------------------------------------
Whopper: George Soros
Oh, that comparison between Bush and the Nazis.
By Timothy Noah
Posted Saturday, Feb. 7, 2004, at 7:12 PM PT

George Soros: I have also been accused of comparing Bush to a Nazi. And I did not do it. I would not do it, exactly because I have lived under a Nazi regime. So I know the difference. But how come that I'm accused of that?

Q: Who accused you of that?

Soros: The Republican National Commission [sic.], or whatever, and a number of newspaper articles. And I--you know, I think I really--I'm upset about being accused of that. And I'm upset that I have to defend myself against this kind of accusation.

--Interview with billionaire philanthropist George Soros, who has spent more than $15 million to oppose President Bush's re-election, on CNN's Wolf Blitzer Reports, Jan. 12, 2004.

"Soros believes that a 'supremacist ideology' guides this White House. He hears echoes in its rhetoric of his childhood in occupied Hungary. 'When I hear Bush say, "You're either with us or against us," it reminds me of the Germans.' It conjures up memories, he said, of Nazi slogans on the walls, Der Feind Hort mit ('The enemy is listening'). 'My experiences under Nazi and Soviet rule have sensitized me,' he said in a soft Hungarian accent."

--Laura Blumenfeld,"Soros' Deep Pockets vs. Bush," in the Washington Post, Nov. 11, 2003.

(Thanks to James Taranto's "Best of the Web Today" blog at OpinionJournal.com.)

Got a whopper? Send it to chatterbox@slate.com. To be considered, an entry must be an unambiguously false statement paired with an unambiguous refutation, and both must be derived from some appropriately reliable public source. Preference will be given to newspapers and other documents that Chatterbox can link to online.

------------------------------------------------------

Local Motives
Why the FCC should scrap its absurd rules for satellite radio.
By Thomas Hazlett
Posted Tuesday, March 16, 2004, at 3:01 PM PT


Early this month, in a seemingly innocuous move, XM Radio offered 15 new satellite radio channels featuring local programming--traffic updates and weather reports. But because FCC rules require XM (and its rival, Sirius) to exclusively provide national programming, each of these local channels is available all across the country. An XM subscriber in Oregon, for example, can learn about a foggy night on the coast of Florida or the traffic en route to O'Hare, just by flipping the dial.

The launch of the new channels has kicked off a highly charged debate about whether the local content is legal. Traditional broadcasters claim it's not, because the programming targets particular regions. XM and Sirius (which plans similar channels) claim it is, because the programming airs nationwide. So far, the FCC seems to be siding with XM, but the regulatory scuffle points up the pickle that satellite radio is currently in: In order to get permission to exist, XM and Sirius had to swear off local content. But in order to survive, they need to find a legal way to deliver it to subscribers.

Satellite radio broadcasting was first authorized in 1997, when two licenses were issued to the companies now known as XM and Sirius. Their applications had taken seven years for the Federal Communications Commission to approve, mainly because the National Association of Broadcasters charged that the new service threatened "traditional American values of community cohesion and local identity." (It also threatened revenues. But at the time, the FCC found that traditional radio stations drew 80 percent of their income from local advertising, which suggested that national competition would not be too damaging to existing stations.) The irony, of course, was that just as lobbyists for traditional broadcasters were making arguments about the integrity of regional identity, local stations were airing more and more national programming, and companies like Infinity and Clear Channel were launching their ambitious industry consolidation. But the NAB pressure worked both to delay satellite rivals and to get the FCC to craft license rules that seemed to ensure that satellite service would air only national shows.

XM and Sirius launched service in late 2001 and early 2002, respectively, and they now serve approximately 1.8 million subscribers. Each system features about 60 channels of music and another 40 of national news, sports, public affairs, and comedy for about $10 to $13 per month. Equipment and installation cost an additional $120-$300. Analysts tout projections of 15 million customers by 2006. But success is by no means certain. Bankruptcy rumors plagued XM in 2002, and Sirius' bondholders were awarded a huge chunk of equity to stave off bankruptcy in 2003.

And so long as satellite radio omits community news, weather, traffic, and sports, its march to financial success will be uphill. Currently, XM and Sirius subscribers can easily flip back and forth between satellite programming and AM and FM bands. Airing local content would help bring listeners directly to satellite audio when they turn the ignition--no need to scan the AM dial for traffic updates--which would make subscribers feel they were getting more for their money and heighten their loyalty to the service. It would also--as the FCC foresaw--allow satellite radio to tap into local advertising, a potentially fat new revenue stream.

Airing local programs nationwide is a good start, but it's a remarkably inefficient solution because it soaks up precious channels--and satellite operators are allotted only so much bandwidth (12.5 MHz per operator). There are, after all, about 269 local radio markets. Squeezing an extra 15 or 20 channels onto the available bandwidth is one thing, but providing more slots for local news becomes very expensive very fast.

What makes these inefficiencies particularly grating, though, is that existing technology and infrastructure would allow scores of cities to enjoy multiple full-time local news channels via satellite. This smarter way to distribute local content on satellite radio would employ the repeater stations already in use. Repeaters are land-based relays that, as the name implies, pull in satellite feeds and (using the identical frequency) retransmit them. This boosts reception for area subscribers who would otherwise hit "dead zones"--tunnels, valleys, office building canyons--where signals fade. But they could also allow programs to be customized, market to market. When boosting a satellite signal, a repeater station could insert, say, a 10-minute local news bulletin into a broadcast airing on one of XM's national news channels. And it could easily supplement the range of national channels already on offer with several local ones.

The NAB attacks repeaters--even when they're used just to boost signal strength--as "a crutch for a technology that is not up to the task of providing the seamless, mobile coverage promised by proponents." And the trade press has been littered with such ominous headlines as: "NAB Accuses XM of Local Programming Plot." Capitol Hill has been happy to play enforcer. Former House Commerce Committee chairman Billy Tauzin, R-La., admonished the FCC that regulators must be vigilant in policing rules "intended to prevent companies like XM from offering localized programming like news, weather and traffic in direct competition with small radio broadcasters."

But in this era of industry consolidation, relatively speaking, there are fewer small, independent broadcasters left to protect. And the FCC's regulations, no matter what their original intent, now serve mainly to spare incumbent broadcasters--tiny or huge--the effort and expense of competing with their satellite rivals.

The notion that traditional broadcasters deliver idiosyncratic menus closely tailored to local audiences is a quaint one. Nationally syndicated content has become the order of the radio day, and satellite programming is, if anything, less cookie-cutter than its earth-bound analogs. That this debate has been framed along such outmoded lines illustrates how increasingly strained the concept of "local" has become. Regulators lacking spatial skills are charting geographic divides when they should be mapping communities of interest. Satellite radio caters to niche preferences in music or politics by connecting dispersed audiences. The opera buff in Tuscaloosa, left for deaf by "local" radio, connects with her community when tuning to satellite radio's 100 channels. To characterize satellite programs as uniform because they are nationally distributed is absurd. To then mandate that uniformity is worse.

It's only natural that sky-bound radio competitors want to offer that additional dimension--local news, weather, traffic, and sports--and they should be allowed to use repeaters to do it. Their financial success may depend on it. The earth-bound stations certainly hope that it does. That's why they are pressing so hard to see that they can't.


Thomas Hazlett is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. He formerly served as chief economist of the Federal Communications Commission.


---------------------------------------------------------
Socialists
The zombies who won the Spanish election.
By Chris Suellentrop
Posted Thursday, March 18, 2004, at 2:26 PM PT



Despite what you may have heard, socialism isn't dead. It's undead, a zombie that still roams the earth uncertain what to do with itself since its demise. It was sighted again this week, somewhere on the Iberian Peninsula, though some observers dismissed the reports. Sure, a group named the Socialist Workers Party won the elections in Spain, and a Socialist named Jos? Luis Rodr?guez Zapatero is slated to become the country's next prime minister. But it says something about the state of small-"s" socialism--in addition to the state of the world--that conservatives are attacking Zapatero for his response to terrorism, not his attitude toward capitalism.

Granted, the war in Iraq and the war against al-Qaida are the whole reason the world has been watching Spain so closely for the past week. But there's another reason for the conservative silence about Zapatero's economics: The socialist debate over what to do about capitalism--and the proletariat, and the theory of surplus value, and the ownership of the means of production--is largely over in Europe. If the old libel against American liberals is that they're socialists, the new European libel against socialists is that they're liberals--classical ones. Here are some of the economic promises on which Zapatero's Socialist Workers Party campaigned: lowering the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 30 percent, cutting income taxes, and reducing the value-added tax. Oh, and they're going to balance the budget and control inflation. The man expected to be the Socialist finance minister, Miguel Sebastian, is a U.S.-educated economist with a Ph.D. from the University of Minnesota. He's promising to put his faith in the Invisible Hand. "There will be a strict separation between politics and business," he told the Financial Times. "We will be a market-friendly government." These are socialists?

They're what's left of them. The 43-year-old Zapatero took the helm of the Socialist Workers Party in 2000, in the wake of a disastrous election for the party. That year, the Socialists allied themselves with the Communists, known as the United Left, but for the first time since Franco's death in 1975, the Socialists and the United Left together did not win a majority of Spanish votes. In the wake of that defeat, Zapatero pledged to follow a "Nueva Via," or New Way, rhetorically aligning himself with the "New Democrats" of Bill Clinton, the "Third Way" of Tony Blair, and the "New Middle" of Gerhard Schr?der. He would navigate between market fundamentalism and state socialism. The clear message: The era of big socialism is over.

To American ears, that sounds ridiculous. Of course it's over. But to the European left it's not so simple. For example, it wasn't until 1995 that Tony Blair convinced the British Labor Party to change Clause Four of its constitution, which had bound the party to pursue "the common ownership of the means of production, distribution, and exchange." In other words, to abolish capitalism. To old Labor loyalists, Clause Four was like the Human Life Amendment in the Republican Party platform, which would amend the U.S. Constitution to ban abortion. They knew their party wouldn't do anything about it if it took power, but they liked having it there as a statement of values. In One Hundred Years of Socialism, the historian Donald Sassoon notes that over the course of the 1960s, '70s, and '80s, European socialists went from wanting to get rid of capitalism to declaring "that they were the ideal managers of it."

But Zapatero, Blair, and Schr?der are taking this a step further: They're dropping much of the socialist project of economic interventionism. The vestige of socialism they cling to is the commitment to a strong social safety net that can balance the inequities of unbridled capitalism. Schr?der may be going the furthest: He's trying to cut Germany's welfare state in order to save it. (Americans might be amused that some Germans are outraged because they now pay $12.40 each time they visit the doctor.) Zapatero's shift toward market economics is understandable: He has to live up to the stellar performance of his predecessor. As the Wall Street Journal Europe noted this week, during Jos? Maria Aznar's eight years as Spain's prime minister, unemployment dropped from 20 percent to 11 percent, and the country created 40 percent of the European Union's new jobs, 4.2 million of them. During the Socialists' 20-year reign from 1976 to 1996, the country's job growth netted out at zero.

Of course, European socialists have long coexisted with capitalism, as the historian Sassoon has argued. Although they long believed that capitalism would wither away, socialist parties in Western Europe have contented themselves with the short-run goal of making the current economic system a more just one. As Paul Berman once put it the New York Times, socialism "has modestly shriveled into what it always should have been: an ethical orientation, not an economic how-to guide."


Chris Suellentrop is Slate's deputy Washington bureau chief. You can e-mail him at suellentrop@slate.com.

Posted by maximpost at 6:20 PM EST
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