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BULLETIN
Monday, 22 March 2004

>> PRECIOUS...
http://www.spectator.org/

Kerry -- Yuck!
By Jackie Mason & Raoul Felder
Published 3/19/2004 12:05:01 AM
Phonies are like trolley cars. There's usually another one coming down the tracks. Just after we were getting over one phony -- Clinton -- we have another one waiting in the wings.
Clinton, of the lies and double-talk -- it depends what is is -- who smoked but did not inhale, who remembered black churches being burned in the South, although the last time it happened was thirty years before he was born, who felt your pain and, if you are a female, anything part of you that is in reach, and who even at the end of his reign debased the presidency by granting criminals last-minute politically and personally enriching pardons, and then left like the visitor who walked off with the family silver. Okay, so he didn't take the silver -- it was just White House odds and ends, and then, shamelessly he sent out invitations for housewarming gifts for his new home. Obviously, we could go on and on about the subject, but it is the next Democratic candidate for his position that compels our interest.
John Kerry is the second -- Gary Hart was the first --wannabe Kennedy imitator to inhabit our political landscape. He and Hart combed their hair like Kennedy, dressed like Kennedy, motioned with their hands like him, womanized like him -- although in fairness to Kerry, after landing a rich widow (making him the richest member of the Senate) he stopped chasing girls. Well, at least if he didn't actually stop, he managed damage control brilliantly, and at least in this respect, out-Clintoned Clinton.
On a Thursday, when his relationship with an intern surfaced, instead of becoming a semantic expert like Clinton, he went immediately to work. On the Thursday, the girl's father said he would not vote for Kerry, and her mother, as reported by the father, always felt that Kerry was despicable. By Saturday the father was voting for him, and the girl was located in Africa and said all the rumors were lies and Kerry never laid a hand, or anything else, on her. There are those who would argue that just for the way he handled this problem alone, he deserved to be president. If Kennedy was half as smart in defusing the Cuban missile crisis we would not have been at the brink of war, and he would not have committed American troops to Vietnam beginning the slippery slide into an unpopular and probably wrong war. At least Vietnam served one purpose -- it gave Kerry something to talk about.
All during the Democratic primaries, the airwaves were saturated with Kerry's activities in Vietnam. If there was a possibility we could forget he was in Vietnam, he would drag a veteran up on the podium with him -- usually the more injured the better, in order to exploit them and this country's mistakes.
We naively believed that this election was not about something somebody did or did not do 35 years ago, but rather, what Kerry as a president would do today. We had the unworthy thought that the next president would not be called upon to drive a boat up a river as part of his presidential duties.
WHEN THE REPUBLICANS CALLED into question Kerry's recent votes to undercut the military and security of the country, he immediately screamed that his bravery and patriotism were being called into question. In short, his maneuver was to cut off constructive debate about the problems of today by name calling. Worse yet, when Republicans made TV commercials that focused on President Bush's actions surrounding 9/11, Kerry called it exploiting a tragedy.
We believe, however, that 9/11 was a defining moment in modern history, not only for us, but for the rest of the world as well, and that the way this president has dealt with history's greatest assault on America and how he will deal with the problem of protecting the country from future 9/11s is the issue of most life-and-death interest to the country. Kerry feels most comfortable with this great debate stagnating over a boat going up a muddy river three decades ago, and apparently will pull out all demagogic stops -- including insulting the President's patriotism -- to prevent the real issues from being argued. Can anyone seriously believe that President Roosevelt should not have mentioned Pearl Harbor when he ran for a fourth term?
It should also fairly be noted that some of our greatest wartime presidents like Lincoln and Roosevelt had virtually no heroic service records, or even any military service at all, and some of our worst, like Grant and Kennedy, were wartime heroes.
Kerry's record, his real pertinent record -- the flip-flops on issues, eviscerating military budgets -- should be the stuff of legitimate public discourse, and Kerry should be allowed to explain and discuss. He should save the river tales to tell to his grandchildren, while counting their trust funds.
We try to approach Kerry with an open mind, putting political affiliation and party aside. So far he comes up as, at best, a windbag who takes himself too seriously, and at worst a demagogue. We would love to be proved wrong. Stifling honest debate is not the way to do it.

Jackie Mason is a comedian. Raoul Felder is a lawyer.
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Home Office, Tower of London Division
By Mark Griffith
Published 3/19/2004 12:06:13 AM
In case you thought governments were usually embarrassed about putting people in prison for crimes they hadn't committed, check out Britain, mother of parliaments, sceptered isle, home of Magna Carta etc.
On Tuesday, the Home Office, Britain's avuncular-sounding ministry for lawcourts and prisons, asked to the Royal Courts of Justice to uphold an amazing practice of charging bed and board to innocent people held for years in UK prisons for crimes they never committed.
That's right, charge wrongfully-convicted people when they are let out for food and accommodation they enjoyed during the prison term they served. Not a few of these unjustly-imprisoned inmates only served sentences because another Home Office employee, such as a police officer, fitted them up with fake evidence.
TAKE ROBERT BROWN, a Glasgow man who at age 19 was found guilty in 1977 of murder. In 2002 he was freed, after 25 years imprisonment in which he continually protested his innocence, his conviction finally overturned by a court.
Cue a bill for the ?80,000 (over $140,000) his stay cost the British government.
Or Michael O'Brien, freed in 1999 after it emerged he had not after all murdered a man he was locked up 11 years earlier for killing. He was billed ?37,000, except that, to the fury of the Home Office, a court overturned this particular bed-and-board charge. Mr. O'Brien was finally permitted not to pay for being imprisoned for the crime he didn't commit.
Which is why the Home Office went to court this week -- to put a stop to this irritating business of innocent people getting out of paying for their time in jail.
Charges tend to be overlooked, because they appear as deductions from compensation. Wrongfully-imprisoned people get compensation in Britain (fairly mean amounts by U.S. standards), which they are then stunned to find has had a sum deducted for "food and lodging." Home Office officials claim, seemingly with straight faces, that as the food and board would have been consumed by the prisoner anyway during those decades, it is quite reasonable to bill people locked up by miscarriages of justice.
So O'Brien got compensation of ?650,000, just over a million dollars. Not generous, but something with which to rebuild a broken life. Finding that ?37,000 ($67,000) was deducted from that compensation is perhaps more insult than injury -- but what an insult. Not surprisingly, O'Brien argued the amount symbolically reasserted his guilt, even after he had been cleared completely of the crime.... as if the police, courts, and prison system could only admit they had made a mistake in the most grudging, sour-faced way imaginable.
HOME SECRETARY DAVID BLUNKETT, Britain's most powerful blind man, is being criticized for pressing his department's right to claw back chunks of settlements wrongly-imprisoned people get once someone listens to them. Settlements the Home Office clearly resents, with startlingly public pettiness.
But though Blunkett, whose guide dog has become a familiar figure in TV talk shows and the House of Commons, does seem to be channeling his Inner Kommandant ever more keenly, this prison-cost clawback is not just him. It is deeply rooted in the department's eerie, authoritarian culture. Several British politicians since the mid 1970s rapidly became darker, flintier figures after spending too long among Home Office employees.
Michael Howard, current leader of the Conservative Party -- possibly the next British Prime Minister -- was said to have "something of the night" about him when he was Home Secretary. Newspapers referred to Merlyn Rees, Labour Secretary of State in the 1970s, as "the sinister Merlyn Rees." Ann Widdecombe, Minister of State at the Home Office in the late 1990s, was frequently called "scary" and "weird." Recent Labour Home Secretary Jack Straw started to sound sneering and bitter in the post. The Home Office is often called "the graveyard of political reputations" by Westminster-watchers.
The sightless Blunkett advocates scanning every eyeball in Britain to create the ID card system the Home Office yearns for, complains juries mean the government gets fewer convictions (that can't be good, can it?), and this week demanded powers to charge bars and restaurants for drunken violence in streets nearby. He's clearly not shy about bossing people around. But is he just another politician to have fallen among hard-faced advisers at the Home Office?
Westminster wits privately claim that Home Office civil servants are bitter about their own life sentence -- having to work in the ugliest ministry buildings in British government. The address "Queen Anne Gate" suggests an early-18th-century Augustan terrace along the civilized lines of Williamsburg. But since the '60s it has been a darkly forbidding concrete building in a style literally known among architects as "New Brutalist." The Home Office is moving to another site in 2005.
Will we see fewer spiteful gestures towards men like Vincent Hickey and his cousin Michael (both wrongfully imprisoned for 18 years, both billed 60,000 pounds for bed and board) once Britain's law-and-order officials work a year or two in pleasanter premises?
Mark Griffith is a freelance British journalist based in Eastern Europe. He may be reached at markgriffith@yahoo.com.
----------------------------------------------
Ex-mobster who ratted on boss sentenced
By Denise Lavoie, Associated Press Writer, 3/22/2004
BOSTON -- A former lieutenant to fugitive gangster James "Whitey" Bulger who helped authorities unravel his gang's cozy relationship with the FBI was sentenced Monday to six years in federal prison, including time served.
Kevin Weeks, a one-time gravedigger and lookout for Bulger's Winter Hill Gang, has already served nearly five years, meaning he could be released by the end of this year with good behavior.
Before he was sentenced, Weeks stood to address the court, saying he decided to cooperate with investigators to give closure to the families of the gang's victims.
"I apologize to those families, and I hope my actions over the last five years show that my apology is sincere," he said.
With his assistance, investigators were able to uncover the relationship between Boston FBI agents and their underworld informants.
Weeks, 48, helped recover the bodies of six people murdered by Bulger and fellow mobster Stephen "The Rifleman" Flemmi and helped solve murders in Florida and Oklahoma. He also helped convict former FBI Agent John J. Connolly Jr. of charges he protected gangsters.
"The defendant has fully cooperated in some of the most significant prosecutions in this district's history," U.S. Attorney Michael Sullivan wrote in a letter to the court.
Bulger, who disappeared in 1995, is on the FBI's "Ten Most Wanted" list and is sought in connection with 21 murders.
Weeks was charged with racketeering, extortion and money-laundering, but struck a plea deal in 1999. Federal prosecutors had recommended that he serve nine years in prison.
Flemmi was sentenced to life in prison for the 1982 killing of a World Jai Alai executive, John Callahan, in Miami. Flemmi reached a plea deal after implicating his former FBI handler, H. Paul Rico, in the 1981 murder of another World Jai Alai figure, owner Roger Wheeler, in Oklahoma. Rico died before he could be tried.
? Copyright 2004 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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Mutual fund firms adding disclaimers
Market timing said to spur bid for legal cover
By Andrew Caffrey and Beth Healy, Globe Staff, 3/22/2004
Mutual fund companies stung by charges of fraud in the market-timing scandals that have engulfed the $7.5 trillion industry for the past six months are amending their legal documents to fend off future litigation.
Even as it was settling fraud charges for $250 million last Monday, FleetBoston Financial Corp.'s Columbia funds unit filed with regulators clarifications to the company's policies on market timing. In addition to warning investors against market timing, Fleet included this disclaimer: "There is no guarantee that the Fund or its agents will be able to detect frequent trading activity or the shareholders engaged in such activity, or, if it is detected, to prevent its recurrence."
Fleet-Columbia spokesman Charles Salmans said the new language is intended to warn fund shareholders that no amount of diligence may be able to stop market timers intent on using evasive techniques.
"This is an effort to make sure our shareholders understand the reality of the situation, and it does not reflect an effort to ease up on our dedication to detect and deter market timing," Salmans said.
But industry critics said the new warnings seem to be an effort by companies to shield against future legal problems should investigators find more instances of market timing in their funds.
"There is no excuse for this," said Secretary of State William F. Galvin, chief of the Massachusetts Securities Division. "It shows me they've learned nothing at all from their recent experience, and they're unrepentant."
Mutual fund companies "have a fiduciary duty to stop it once they know it's going on," said Mercer Bullard, a former US Securities and Exchange Commission attorney who founded the watchdog group, Fund Democracy. "That disclosure cannot insulate them from liability."
MFS Investment Management, which settled a $350 million fraud case with regulators last month, also added disclaimers to its fund prospectuses in recent days, as did State Street Research & Management Co., whose brokerage operations paid a $1 million fine in February for failing to stop outside brokers from making excessive trades in the company's mutual funds.
In many of the recent prosecutions, regulators seized on what mutual funds said about market timing in their prospectuses as the basis for bringing fraud charges. Now, mutual fund attorney Roger Joseph says, funds are trying to protect themselves.
"Companies don't want to promise that they can absolutely control the issue," said Joseph, a partner at the Boston law firm Bingham McCutchen. "One of the ways in which you can be sued by either the regulators or by investors is by having prospectus disclosure that is misleading."
"The fact of the matter is there have been people who have circumvented the system, and it's just alerting the shareholders that it happened," said State Street Research spokeswoman Robyn Tice. Keeping out timers, she said, is "a challenging process."
The disclaimers usually accompany other details mutual fund companies are telling investors about the new steps they're taking to deter market timing and other improper trading. For example, MFS is telling investors about new fees they would have to pay if they tried to make rapid trades in and out of its funds.
The new language appears to be at least partly a reaction to a proposed SEC rule calling for greater disclosure in mutual fund prospectuses of the risks of market timing and fund groups' policies for combating market timing.
There is, however, an important difference between the market-timing behavior that has gotten so many mutual fund companies in trouble, and the kind of excessive trading the companies are referring to in the new disclaimers. In the fraud cases so far, the SEC and state regulators have brought charges when companies knowingly allowed market timing and even conspired with select traders when their official policies prohibited such abusive trading. The new disclosures purportedly address market timers the companies don't want -- and try to kick out -- but who somehow find a way back into the funds undetected.
In particular, the new disclaimers discuss the difficulty of policing such trades that are buried inside so-called omnibus accounts. These are giant collections of individual investors, or "beneficial owners" in industry parlance, such as a corporate 401(k) plan, where mutual fund's contract is with the plan, rather than the individual members of the plan. The trades of all these members are bundled together at the end of the day and shipped en masse to the mutual fund company by a financial intermediary, such as a brokerage firm or retirement plan administrator.
Many fund groups argue that it's difficult for them to monitor these group accounts, and hard to stop abuses even once they are identified. In one widely publicized case last year, Putnam Investments did identify rampant market timing by 10 members of a union group, Boilermakers Local 5 in New York, who managed to make more than $4 million in a rapid-trading scheme over three years. Galvin's office sued Putnam for securities fraud in the matter, alleging that the Boston firm failed to police those trades. Putnam said its contract with the union local did not give it direct control over individual accounts.
Fleet's Columbia unit said in its filing this week that, "The fund typically is not able to identify trading by a particular beneficial owner, which may make it difficult or impossible to determine if a particular account is engaged in frequent trading." Fleet and other companies also have cited "operational and technological limitations" that prevent them and financial intermediaries from cracking down on market timers in omnibus accounts.
But that argument is flimsy, according to high-tech executives who sell systems to investment firms. While much of the investment industry didn't have this capability in 2002, many brokers, fund groups, and retirement plan administrators in the past year have spent heavily on new technology that can more precisely trace trading.
"There is an enormous amount of money being put into technology to remedy these problems," said David Tilkin, chief executive of Protegent Inc., a Hingham firm that sells software to brokerage houses.
Fidelity chief executive Edward C. Johnson III, in his letter to customers in annual reports of Fidelity funds sent out in recent days, said the company has taken pains to shut out market timers. But even he leaves room for improvement: "It is reasonable to assume that another structure can be developed that would alter the system to make it much more difficult for predatory traders to operate." And he indicates the responsibility doesn't rest solely with the fund group: "This, however, will only be achieved though close cooperation among regulators, legislators, and the industry."
In a comment letter last month to the SEC, Fidelity said it would prefer to make market-timing disclosures in an even more arcane document than the prospectus -- the "statement of additional information" fund companies must file with regulators. In addition, Fidelity expressed concern about having to reveal its methods for keeping out timers, saying such a disclosure would only help timers circumvent the rules.
Mercer Bullard, the fund activist, said fund companies could force financial intermediaries to crack down on improper traders in their large accounts, but are afraid to. He said companies fear these middlemen will simply take the investment business to a more compliant mutual fund.
"This isn't a matter of being unable to identify who that trader is," Bullard said. "It's a matter of being unwilling to bear the risk" of losing that business.
Andrew Caffrey can be reached at caffrey@globe.com; Beth Healy at bhealy@globe.com.

? Copyright 2004 Globe Newspaper Company.
-------------------------------------------

E.U. Arrests Reporter Who Exposed Corruption

Apparently the apparatchiks who rule the European Union don't always agree with freedom of the press.
According to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, who covers the E.U. for the Telegraph, fellow journalist Hans-Martin Tillack, the Brussels correspondent for Germany's Stern magazine, was arrested and held for 10 hours without counsel by police in Belgium after his office and home were raided by six officers.
Pritchard said police seized Tillack's computers, address books and archive of files "in a move that stunned Euro-MPs."
Tillack, who describes himself as a "pro-European federalist," said the raid on his equipment was triggered by a complaint from the E.U.'s anti-fraud office, OLAF.
Tillack "was accused of paying money to obtain a leaked OLAF dossier two years ago, which he denies," Pritchard wrote.
The European Ombudsman has already criticized Tillack's arrest.
Tillack has been OLAF's most vocal critic, accusing the agency of covering up abuses by the European Union system.
OLAF was created to replace the old fraud office, UCLAF, which was accused of covering up abuses by the disgraced Santer Commission. The UCLAF staff largely transferred to OLAF.
"As the author of a recent book on E.U. corruption, [Tillack] has the greatest archive of investigative files of any journalist working in Brussels," Pritchard wrote.
The European Superstate is here and not so nice.


Posted by maximpost at 10:20 PM EST
Updated: Monday, 22 March 2004 11:36 PM EST
Permalink

Horse-trading for top IMF job starts in earnest
Reuters, 03.22.04, 9:33 AM ET
By Brian Love
PARIS, March 22 (Reuters) - There's an eery sense of deja-vu as European governments try to work out who should succeed Horst Koehler as chief of the International Monetary Fund, the organisation that tackles economic crises worldwide.
Spain's outgoing finance minister, Rodrigo Rato, is the only publicly declared candidate but a resounding lack of endorsement elsewhere is reminiscent of an ill-fated bid by Germany's Caio Koch-Weser to get the job in 2000 before it went to Koehler.
French President Jacques Chirac is, for example, believed to be reticent about Rato, and France's only official comment so far is that whoever is nominated must be a "consensus candidate".
"Saying that Chirac is against Rato goes too far, but saying Chirac is for Rato goes too far as well," said one source familiar with the horse-trading that the filling of key public postings tends to trigger in Europe.
The Washington-based IMF job has gone to a European since the IMF was set up after World War Two. The decision on who fills the post is usually taken at the level of the European Union, despite unhappiness about this outside the EU and the United States -- which traditionally gets the top job at the IMF's sister organisation, the World Bank.
FRENCH BIDS -- LEMIERRE AND LAMY?
A spokeswoman at Chirac's office said on Monday that keeping the job in European hands was a priority but declined comment on a media report that Paris could try to place Frenchman Jean Lemierre in the job, with German backing.
Business newspaper La Tribune quoted an unnamed official in Chirac's office as saying Lemierre, currently president of the London-based European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, was "a very worthy candidate...who merits thinking about".
That smacked of the kind of tactics seen in the past when European capitals want to test the waters before anyone declares their hand officially.
La Tribune said Berlin would be ready to back Lemierre in return for Paris support for a German to become vice-president of the Brussels-based European Commission with responsibility for economic issues, a new position that does not yet exist.
Lemierre has already been proposed for another four years as head of the EBRD from July and is sole candidate for a mandate due to be decided upon at an April 18-19 meeting of the EBRD.
No European country apart from Spain has said anything publicly about fielding a candidate to replace Koehler after his abrupt resignation to run for the post of president of Germany.
Some experts say Germany's silence on the issue is notable because Berlin had insisted that the job go to a German in 2000.
Back then, Berlin initially fielded deputy finance minister Koch-Weser but his name was opposed by Washington and he got no more support form Paris than Rato is enjoying this time round.
That was when Koehler was proposed as an alternative and the situation finally unblocked.
On Monday, German Finance Minister Hans Eichel and French counterpart Francis Mer declined to discuss names when questioned after a meeting in Berlin, saying only that the job should go to a European.
Mer said "there were lots of candidates lining up" and that he had not gone into details on names with Eichel.
Eichel confirmed that the goal was to sort out the issue in time for a twice-yearly top-level IMF meeting in late April.
"The most important thing is that we in Europe can agree as quickly as possible on our candidate. The longer this takes the more difficult it will be," he said.
Another name in the frame on Monday was Pascal Lamy, whose job as European Trade Commissioner expires later this year.
Asked about the IMF on French Europe 1 radio on Sunday, he said: "I am not hiding the fact that I like this kind of international post."
TIRED OF EUROPE'S MONOPOLY
The signs are, however, that many other countries across the globe are unhappy about the power struggles that took place in Europe in 2000 and want a fair, more open process this time.
Switzerland and a group of some 100 countries from regions such as Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East issued a statement in Washington on Friday calling for more transparency in the way the selection takes place.
The division over Koch-Weser last time round prompted Japan to challenge the tradition by proposing former financial diplomat Eisuke Sakakibara for the job, but that got shot down once the Europeans and Washington managed to settle on Koehler.
Sakakibara said last week he was unlikely to try again.
Europe's grip is also being questioned in Africa. Ivory Coast's finance minister, Bohoun Bouabre, said earlier this month that African finance ministers and central bankers wanted the field thrown wide open and the European monopoly brought to an end.
Copyright 2004, Reuters News Service

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washingtonpost.com
At the IMF, Discord on How to Pick Next Chief
By Paul Blustein
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, March 22, 2004; Page A11
In an unusual show of dissension within the board of the International Monetary Fund, directors representing more than 100 countries have issued a public statement calling for the next IMF managing director to be chosen "regardless of nationality."
The statement, in a press release issued by the IMF on Friday, was a rebuke aimed at Europe and the United States for a longstanding arrangement in which the top job at the IMF has always gone to a European and the presidency of the World Bank has always gone to an American.
Controversy over the method of choosing the IMF and World Bank leadership has mounted since the surprise resignation of Horst Koehler from the IMF's managing directorship on March 4 to run for president of Germany.
European officials have made it clear that they expect Koehler's successor to come from their ranks, and a number of them have signaled their preference for Rodrigo Rato, the finance minister in Spain's outgoing government. The newly elected Socialist government in Madrid has said it would back Rato's candidacy. But the selection process involves backroom dealings among European finance ministries, and some European news organizations have reported that France may oppose Rato.
This process has drawn criticism for years from economists, editorial writers and non-governmental organizations as an arbitrary system for appointing the chief executives at two of the world's most powerful institutions. Many insiders expect it to prevail again, because both U.S. and European officials value the control that the selection process affords them, and together they hold a majority of votes on the board. Votes of board members at the IMF and World Bank are weighted based on the size of the countries' financial contributions.
The statement issued Friday showed that the countries excluded from this arrangement intend to register a strong protest. It came from a group of directors calling itself the "G-11," representing just less than half the 24 IMF board members. The directors represent "emerging and developing countries from Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East," the statement said, plus directors from Australia and Switzerland, which represent several countries each, plus the director from Russia.
"The process of identifying and selecting the candidate must be open and transparent, with the goal of attracting the best person for the job, regardless of nationality," the statement said.
The statement was welcomed by IMF critics who complain the IMF tilts its policies toward the interests of rich nations at the expense of the developing world.
"This is an unprecedented challenge coming from within the IMF's own Board of Directors," said Soren Ambrose of the 50 Years is Enough Network, in an e-mail. "I am unaware of any previous instance where a significant group of Board members has issued a public statement calling on the board as a whole -- and the most powerful members of the board as individual actors -- to change their behavior."

? 2004 The Washington Post Company
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Berlin, Paris want European to head IMF
22 March 2004
BERLIN - France and Germany said Monday they agreed that a decision should be made as quickly as possible on naming a new head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and that, in keeping with tradition, the person should be a European.
In talks in Berlin as part of the regular Franco-German economic consultations, German Finance Minister Hans Eichel and his French counterpart Francis Mer also insisted that the next IMF chief should be from Europe.
They did not put forth any names, but said that the issue should be resolved by the time the IMF holds its spring meeting at the end of April.
Eichel and Mer said that the European Union members should quickly agree on a joint candidate, with Eichel saying there were "very good grounds" for the next IMF boss being from Europe.
But it was important that a decision be reached soon, he said, because the longer the debate was drawn out, the more difficult the decision could become.
Mer said he was convinced that the EU would agree on a joint candidate. "In any case our European candidate will be a good one," he said.
The IMF director-general post has been vacant since Horst Koehler, a German, stepped down in early March after his name was officially put forward by Germany's opposition camp as its nominee for the country's presidency. The election in the national federal assembly is set for May.
Traditionally, a European heads the IMF while an American leads the sister organization, the World Bank, with both institutions based in Washington D.C.
But a number of developing and threshold countries have been calling for a transparent election proceedings.
While Germany made clear, after Koehler's resignation, that it would not put forth a candidate for the IMF spot, France, according to French press reports, is favouring Jean Lemierre, currently chief of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
Also at the Franco-German consultations, the head of the German Bundesbank, Ernst Welteke, said that he saw no need to revise current projections about Germany's economy this year despite "certain risks".
Welteke also indicated that the European Central Bank was not planning any change in its interest rates.
Welteke said that the current liquidity in the eurozone was sufficient in order to "generate inflation-free growth", a comment hinting that the ECB would not move to reduce its main rate now at 2 percent, double the US Federal Reserve's main rate.

DPA
http://www.expatica.com/source/site_article.asp?subchannel_id=52&story_id=5858
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IMF G-11 group urges open contest to find chief
By Andrew Balls in Washington
FT.COM
Published: March 21 2004 17:57 | Last Updated: March 21 2004 17:57
A group of executive directors of the International Monetary Fund representing more than 100 countries has called for the fund's new managing director to be chosen from among the best candidates for the job, regardless of nationality.
The G-11 executive directors, representing Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East, are joined by the directors from Russia, Australia and Switzerland in saying that the process of selecting the new managing director should be an open and transparent process, a challenge to the convention under which western Europe in effect chooses the managing director.
The G-11 statement comes after calls from lobby groups, academics and other parties for the process for selecting the IMF managing director to be thrown open, rather than sealed in negotiations between European finance ministries.
It calls for all executive directors, who represent the fund's shareholders, to be consulted "in a timely manner" about the candidates, including their credentials and knowledge of the institution.
Rodrigo Rato, finance minister in Spain's outgoing conservative government, is seen as the leading candidate for the post, with European governments expected to unite behind him. The US is also expected to back Mr Rato, though so far the US Treasury has gone no further than saying that it will support the most qualified candidate.
Mr Rato is a respected minister but is not seen as an expert in international finance and development, nor in the workings of the IMF. Some observers argue that a former finance minister or central banker from a emerging country would bring useful experience and added credibility when dealing with the fund's members.
The G-11's intervention echoes a report to the boards of directors of the IMF and World Bank in 2001 by a working group of executive directors that recommended the institutions establish clear criteria for nominating candidates, consultation of all executive directors and a "regionally representative" advisory group of experts to assist.
The report was endorsed but not officially adopted by the IMF's board.
By convention, Europe appoints the head of the IMF and the US selects the president of the World Bank, confirmed by votes on the institutions' boards. The IMF board is dominated by the US and Europe, while non-European countries outside the Group of Seven leading industrial countries command only a third of the votes.
In 2000, after the US blocked Caio Koch-Weser, Germany's candidate for the job, a group of 20 African countries proposed Stanley Fischer, then the fund's first deputy managing director, to be managing director.
Mr Fischer, now an executive at Citigroup, would be a popular choice for managing director among the fund staff and in developing countries.
However, although born in Africa, Mr Fischer is a naturalised US citizen.
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>>

John Dizard: Powering a charged Iraqi economy
By John Dizard
Published: March 19 2004 19:47 | Last Updated: March 19 2004 19:47
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1079419794834&p=1012571727088

I sincerely hope that when I next go to Baghdad, my favourite hotel, the Hammurabi Palace, will still be there. It was an island of safety when most of the terrorist attacks in Iraq came from the Baathists.
The hotel is heavily patronised by Russians, French and foreign Arabs, whom the Baathists rather liked. Now that al-Qaeda and its friends seem to be doing most of the damage, I am not sure I will take another room facing the street.
For all the recent headlines, though, the real story in Iraq is the rapid recovery in the economy. Unemployment has dropped dramatically from last year, from about half the labour force to a fifth. In truth, it will be very hard for Iraq to avoid a powerful investment-led boom over the next several years. Within a year to 18 months, the principal economic problem will be a shortage of skilled labour.
And if it is politically acceptable by then to allow massive immigration of foreign workers, then the real limit on economic growth in Iraq will become electricity capacity.
Even before the main wave of US reconstruction aid hits the country, Iraq is reviving thanks to repatriated cash from overseas stashes, returning Iraqi migrants and foreign Arabs intent on getting in on a boom. Tom Foley, a private equity investor temporarily running the US private sector development programme, estimates that "the money being spent from the [US reconstruction aid] will add between 35 per cent and 40 per cent to the non-oil part of the economy".
Of the $18.5bn appropriated for reconstruction over the next two years, about 40 per cent will be spent in Iraq on local procurement and salaries. The rest will go to imported equipment (useful) and consultants and other overhead (not useful).
Eighteen and a half billion dollars does not sound like all that much for a country of 25m people, even when you add in the money spent by the military locally. The labour force, however, is only some 7m strong, and only about 55 to60 per cent of that group are literate. Given that a good monthly wage in Iraq is about $200, you can see where the impact on domestic demand will be dramatic.
It is already possible to see the effect of the US presence on local workers. Before the war, private sector employers had their pick of the good people, since they paid a premium wage. Now that government wages have increased perhaps five or six times in real terms, the private sector workers are getting grumpy and looking around for something better.
The last time Iraq had a labour shortage, in the late 1970s, it imported several million foreign workers. Ali Awali, the Minister of Trade, says "We want to avoid that this time". But it is hard to see how that can be done. You do, however, get performance for money spent on Iraqi skilled workers. Cliff Mumm, programme director for Bechtel's reconstruction work, says "they have a great work ethic, are naturally organised and have a high level of enthusiasm.
"At some of the craft levels, they needed some additional training, for example on welding techniques. When they got that training, the rejection rate on their work dropped significantly.
"Our Iraqi staff are very tough on dealing with our subcontractors; they beat them up for a few dinars. They take it very personally."
Fixing the electricity industry, Bechtel's main task, is a demanding job and a moving target. Supply will not catch up with demand for the foreseeable future. Saudi Arabia, with a population close in size, has about 16,000 megawatts of electrical capacity. Iraq now has about 4,500 MW of working capacity out of 10,000 MW of nominal "nameplate" capacity in the old system.
Unquantifiable but very large imports of electrical appliances mean the contractors and Iraqi government will still get blamed for power blackouts in Baghdad this summer. A reasonable goal is to get 6,000 MW of capacity up and running by September, and 8,000 MW by next summer. After that, repairs to the existing system will be largely completed, and increases in capacity will take longer and require new plants with long lead times.
Since the California power crisis passed, Iraq is the only place I know, apart perhaps from China, where you can attract a circle of listeners by discussing electricity development. For the next several years, there will be gaps that have to be filled by portable diesel and small gasoline generators, which are turning Baghdad's air into something like that of Athens or Mexico City.
As the reconstruction aid boom tails off, the momentum of oil and gas development will pick up. The oil companies will not get seriously involved until a truly independent government is elected, or somehow chosen, and Iraq's international debts are rescheduled. Then the Iraqis can sign production sharing agreements with the companies, and development will start in earnest, probably late next year. The capital expenditures for that will extend the construction-intensive boom. Iraq's oil is much cheaper and quicker to produce and ship than, say, Russia's.
So while the terrorist acts get the air time, the real Iraq story is the start of an extraordinary period of growth.
johndizard@hotmail.com

Posted by maximpost at 2:30 PM EST
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Turtle Bay's Carnival of Corruption
Digging deeper into the scandalous Oil-for-Food program.
By Claudia Rosett
With United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan finally conceding the need for an independent investigation of the U.N.'s 1996-2003 Oil-for-Food program in Iraq, the next question is how investigators might begin to get a grip on the U.N.'s central role in this huge scandal.
Naturally, the rampant signs of corruption are important, and leads on graft involving U.N. personnel -- including the program's executive director, Benon Sevan -- need pursuing. If Sevan did receive oil from Saddam, as it now appears, then the immediate follow-up question is: What might Sevan have done in return, given his responsibilities for "overall management and coordination of all United Nations humanitarian activities in Iraq"?
KOJO'S CONSULTANCY
It would also be prudent, if only to clear up any doubts, for investigators to look into the relationship between Annan's son, Kojo Annan, and the Swiss-based company, Cotecna Inspection SA, which two years into the seven-year Oil-for-Food program won a contract from the U.N. for the pivotal job of inspecting all Oil-for-Food shipments into Iraq -- a responsibility Cotecna has held ever since. Kojo Annan worked for Cotecna in the mid-1990s, a possible conflict of interest which neither Cotecna nor the U.N. bothered to declare.
A spokesman in Kofi Annan's office has now offered in Kojo's defense that Kojo was no longer in the pay of Cotecna on the day the company won the U.N. contract. But the timing was close: Kojo had resigned from a consulting job for Cotecna earlier that same month. According to Annan's spokesman, Kojo held a staff job at Cotecna in a junior position from December 1995 through February 1998. Just two months later, Kojo reappeared on Cotecna's payroll as a consultant, via a firm called Sutton Investments, from April 1998 to December 1998, resigning from that consultancy just before Cotecna clinched the U.N. contract on December 31, 1998.
It might all be mere coincidence. Kojo's recent statements, relayed to me last Friday by Kofi Annan's U.N. office, convey that Kojo's consulting work for Cotecna was limited to projects in Nigeria and Ghana, unrelated to Oil-for-Food. But given the U.N.'s tendency to take several months to process contracts, and considering that the U.N. had to review several competing bids, the dates here suggest that Kojo resigned from Cotecna's staff only to return as a consultant during precisely the period in which Cotecna would most likely have been assembling and submitting its bid for the U.N. job, and the U.N. Secretariat would have been reviewing the bids. That certainly warrants attention by an independent panel.
But beyond such specific questions, the larger issue is the U.N. setup of secrecy and lack of accountability that fostered the Oil-for-Food fiasco in the first place. The damage at this point includes Iraqis deprived of billions of dollars worth of relief, and signs of massive corruption quite likely involving hundreds of U.N.-approved contractors in dozens of countries, as well as the U.N.'s own head of the program, Sevan. An inquiry should also look into the U.N. Secretariat's silent assent to Saddam's efforts to buy political influence in the Security Council. In this bribe-riddled program, Saddam tipped vast amounts of business to contractors in such veto-wielding Security Council member states as Russia, France, and to a lesser extent, China. In the heated debates over Iraq, leading up to the beginning of the war last March, Annan brought none of Saddam's influence-peddling to public attention, though he had access to specific information about the huge sums going from Saddam's regime to select nations, and the public did not.
OIL-FOR-TERROR?
Even more disturbing is the $10.1 billion that the General Accounting Office estimates Saddam Hussein was able to salt away "in illegal revenues related to the Oil-for-Food program." By GAO estimates, recently revised upward, Saddam acquired $4.4 billion via kickbacks on relief contracts and illicit surcharges on oil contracts; plus $5.7 billion via oil smuggling. All this took place under cover of repeated Oil-for-Food "good housekeeping" seals of approval. The U.S. has so far located only a small portion of these assets. That leaves billions of Saddam's secret stash still out there. The danger is that Baathists, terrorists (with whom Saddam did indeed have connections), or some combination of the two, will get to these billions first, if they haven't already. It is worth asking if some mix of U.N. secrecy, incompetence, and corruption may have allowed the accumulation of money now backing terrorist attacks in Iraq, or elsewhere.
In any event, the first practical step should be to secure the U.N.'s own records of Oil-for-Food. In Baghdad, Oil-for-Food-related documents kept by Saddam have already proven a source of damning information and are under investigation. The Iraqi Governing Council has already commissioned a report by the private accounting firm KPMG International, due out in a few months. And U.S. administrators in Baghdad have now frozen the records there relating to Oil-for-Food, to help with congressional inquiries in advance of hearings expected next month.
But at the U.N.'s New York headquarters, not all records have been rendered up. The U.N. treasurer's office still controls the Oil-for-Food bank accounts, held in the French bank, BNP Paribas. And, the U.N. still has in its keeping all U.N. records of these BNP accounts, according to officials both in Baghdad and at the U.N.
These accounts are highly relevant to any independent look at the U.N. itself. As Sevan reminded Saddam's regime on July 12, 2001, "the signatories are United Nations staff members." Through these accounts passed more than $100 billion in U.N.-approved oil sales and relief purchases made by Saddam, and toward the end of the U.N.'s administration of Oil-for-Food, they held balances of more than $12 billion.
Outside the U.N. these bank accounts have long been a source of some mystery. The U.N. has refused to disclose BNP statements, or the amount of interest paid on those balances of billions. Even such directly concerned parties as the Kurdish regional authorities of northern Iraq -- entitled to 13 percent of the proceeds of Saddam's Oil-for-Food sales -- who for years have been requesting a look at the books, have received no details.
The U.N. bank records of Oil-for-Food could be especially important in filling in gaps in U.N. documentation on other fronts. For example, the U.N.-processed relief contracts were often brief, vague, and in some cases involved suppliers who could not later be located, as confirmed both by notes on the U.N.'s own website, and in a phone interview with officials of the U.S. Defense Contract Management Agency, which together with the Defense Contract Audit Agency last summer reviewed hundreds of top-dollar Oil-for-Food contracts, culled from the thousands still open after the fall of Saddam. The bank records should at least include full details of all transfers of funds -- the accounts whence they came, and the accounts to which they went.
Why did the U.S. allow the U.N. to keep control of the accounts (and the records) after responsibility for winding down all other aspects of the Oil-for-Food program was turned over to the CPA last November? One CPA official explains that the BNP accounts were left in the hands of U.N. personnel because the bookkeeping was so Byzantine the CPA feared any attempt to intervene might interrupt needed deliveries of relief to Iraq.
MISSING BANK STATEMENTS
It now appears that neither the Iraqi Governing Council nor the CPA has thus far received a single bank statement from either BNP or the U.N. treasurer's office. A frustrated CPA official, connected with the wrapping-up of some $8.2 billion worth of relief contracts inherited from the U.N., tells me there has been no answer to his repeated requests to see current statements: "They never say no, but they never do it either." Neither has the Iraqi central bank received any statements, he adds. For the Iraqis and CPA officials now administering the remaining contracts in Iraq, this source explains, there is no way to tell "what activity has taken place" in the BNP accounts, or "how much money's left."
U.N. Treasurer Suzanne Bishopric, reached by phone in New York last Friday, confirms that she has sent no bank statements either to the CPA or to the Iraqi Governing Council. As she explains it, "They never asked me." Bishopric says that in any case, after the U.N.'s withdrawal from Iraq following the bombing of the U.N.'s Baghdad offices last August, she has not been able to deliver current bank statements because "we have no mechanism to send them."
Asked if it would not be possible to transmit the statements by fax, email, or express-delivery service, Bishopric says, "I'm not going there."
Bishopric further explains that the U.N. does plan to turn over all the records to the CPA, "with absolutely full disclosure." Asked why the delay of many months, she says the U.N. is busy scanning all the records into computer files, in order to turn over the collected works all at once. She expects this project will be finished "in a few weeks."
Perhaps the U.N.'s delay of almost a year in delivering to the Iraqis and the CPA any bank statements, either past or current, is simply a function of the lumbering U.N. bureaucracy. In this CPA-U.N. version of he-said she-said, it is hard to know whether the U.S. government failed to deliver to the U.N. the CPA's request for the information, or the U.N. received the requests but ignored them.
Either way, two questions leap out. Why should the U.N. records of the BNP accounts be in a condition such that it is taking months to assemble and turn them over? And why would the U.N. not forward regular updates to the CPA now running the program? In the context of the Oil-for-Food program, so beset by allegations of bribes, kickbacks, and shady financial dealings that Annan after months of denials and resistance has finally bowed to demands for an independent investigation, it would be a lot healthier to have the bank records, right up to the latest statement, and in whatever condition, turned over post-haste to the Iraqis, the CPA, and any other authorities who might be able to preserve them -- as they are -- until an independent investigation can begin.
If the problem is lack of a delivery vehicle, and the more than $1 billion in U.N. administrative fees collected from Saddam under the Oil-for-Food program have already been used up, it would seem worthwhile for the U.S. government, on top of its usual 22-percent-or-so contribution to the U.N.'s core budget, to donate to the U.N. treasurer's office the cost of express delivery of all BNP-related documents. Or maybe just back a truck up to the U.N. loading dock and haul away every last Oil-for-Food-related file and CD-ROM, right now. Annan, who recently expressed his wish that the reputation of the U.N. should not be impugned, would surely be glad to cooperate.
THE ABSENT AUDIT REPORTS
An independent panel will also have to be genuinely independent -- not as defined within the incestuous U.N. Secretariat, but by lights of the same commercial world in which the U.N. Secretariat ran this program. There has been much protest by the U.N. that Oil-for-Food was the most audited U.N. program ever. Back in 1995, in U.N. Resolution 986, authorizing Oil-for-Food, the Security Council asked the Secretary-General to hire "independent and certified public accountants" to audit the program's bank accounts and "to keep the Government of Iraq fully informed." These are the same escrow accounts on which the U.N., post-Saddam, has kept all the records and statements to itself.
According to the U.N. treasurer, Bishopric, the auditing of the escrow accounts was entrusted by the secretary-general to a "board of auditors" consisting of government agencies of a revolving trio of member states. There has been no public disclosure of their findings. This three-member board of auditors was chaired in 2002 by the Philippines, and in 2003 by France -- home base to BNP. That may qualify as U.N. in-house supervision, but hardly as an independent audit.
Yet more "auditing" was carried out by the U.N.'s own Office of Internal Oversight Services, which is not an independent firm, but a U.N. agency within the Secretariat, with every incentive to protect in public the reputation of the same U.N. bureaucracy it is supposed to be auditing. Nor has this oversight office been forthcoming. Nothing remotely approaching a full audit report has been released outside the U.N. According to an adviser to the Iraqi Governing Council, Claude Hankes-Drielsma, even Saddam's regime saw little of these audits. Early in Oil-for-Food, from 1997-1999, they were sent to Baghdad. But it now appears that after 1999, they stopped coming. Whether Security Council members saw all the documents is hard to say. One diplomat linked to the Security Council notes that the volume of paperwork associated with Oil-for-Food was so huge that not everything was sent over automatically to members of the Security Council. Some material had to be specifically requested. It's not clear everything was.
A VESUVIUS OF GRAFT
Once a genuinely competent and independent panel is set up, the task should be not simply to look for discrepancies in the records, or clear evidence of corruption. The larger problem is that the U.N., while running largely on public money, operates with a degree of secrecy that means graft has to reach Vesuvian proportions before outside watchdogs can easily prove anything.
There is also the problem that at the U.N., the buck seems to stop nowhere. In Oil-for-Food, the Secretariat agreed to shoulder enormous tasks requiring a high degree of integrity and responsibility. But when allegations of corruption and mismanagement began to emerge, the immediate defense of U.N. officials, including Annan, was to present the Secretariat as nothing more than a hapless and humble servant of the Security Council. U.N. officials argued that Oil-for-Food staffers were not responsible for spotting Saddam's pricing scams, but were merely supposed to check that the paperwork was in order (a goal the treasurer's office seems to have missed).
If U.N. staff in truth had no responsibility for sounding an alarm on obvious kickbacks, oil smuggling, and gross, damaging, and dangerous violations of U.N. sanctions and relief rules, then why bother with the U.N. staff at all? The Security Council might as well have let Saddam handle his own paperwork.
But the Secretariat was, in fact, expected to supervise the program. For example, Resolution 986, authorizing the Secretariat to set up Oil-for-Food, specifically laid out the goal of ensuring "equitable distribution of humanitarian relief" -- not the embezzlement by Saddam of $10.1 billion. If carrying out this mandate was an impossible job -- and given the habits of Saddam, perhaps it was -- Sevan and Annan themselves, in the interest of upholding the integrity of the Secretariat, should have stepped forward to voice the problem, just as Annan found occasion to voice his criticisms of U.S. policy in Iraq.
DID KOFI KNOW?
Instead, U.N. officials urged the rapid growth of Oil-for-Food, with Annan and Sevan using their public platforms to complain that the U.S. and U.K. were spending too much time scrutinizing contracts (France, Russia, and China evidently were not). In the final year of the program, Annan agreed to a revised plan that cut the Security Council out of the loop on all Oil-for-Food contract approvals except those involving goods that might be used for weapons. This allowed the Secretariat to more swiftly and directly process what have now turned out to be thousands of relief contracts involving billions in bribes to suppliers and kickbacks to Saddam.
Could Kofi Annan -- no fool -- really have been oblivious to the carnival of corruption under his jurisdiction? "I don't think that's plausible," says Hankes-Drielsma.
Ultimately, the big questions here are not just who profited from graft under Oil-for-Food, but the extent to which the U.N. setup of secrecy, warped incentives, and lack of accountability allowed it to supervise the transformation of Oil-for-Food into a program of theft-from-Iraqis, cash-for-Saddam, and grease-for-the-U.N. Were this a corporation, the CEO, Enron-style, would already be out the front door, and a major restructuring underway. The least that needs to come out of an independent investigation, or congressional hearings for that matter, is a clear understanding of the ways in which the U.N. Secretariat must be not simply reprimanded, but deeply reformed, starting with the introduction of complete transparency in U.N. use of public money -- and proceeding to any further incentives that might be devised to ensure it will better honor the public trust.

-- Claudia Rosett is a senior fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, and an adjunct fellow with the Hudson Institute. Rosett previously wrote on the United Nations Oil-for-Food Program for NRO here.

http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/rosett200403212155.asp



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'Al-Qaeda hideout' tunnels found
BBC
Pakistan says more than 100 suspects have been detained
Pakistan says al-Qaeda suspects surrounded by the army near the Afghan border may have escaped using a tunnel.
A military spokesman said the army had found a number of tunnels, one being two kilometres long, under villages in the South Waziristan tribal area.
The army is downplaying reports that the al-Qaeda number two, Ayman al-Zawahri was in the area.
The army operation has been aimed against al-Qaeda and Taleban suspects and tribesmen sheltering them.
After nearly a week of heavy fighting near the town of Wana, there is now a lull while tribal elders try to negotiate an end to the confrontation.
The army is insisting that the surrounded men must surrender.
It is the army's biggest-ever operation in the tribal areas along the Afghan border which have traditionally run their own affairs without outside interference.
'Tunnel between homes'
The army said on Tuesday it had located several man-made tunnels that al-Qaeda suspects could have used to escape.
Brigadier Mehmood Shah told reporters that one of them was "a two-kilometre-long tunnel running between the homes of two wanted tribesmen and leading to a stream."
Map of the wider region
The brigadier said the army had temporarily stopped firing at suspect positions while 22 local tribal elders had entered the cordoned off area.
The army has said that about 500 militants are holed up in the area - seen as a safe haven for Islamic militants.
Last week it was reported that there was a "high-value al-Qaeda target" in the area among those surrounded by the army.
Military chiefs are now saying that it is probably not Osama Bin Laden's right-hand man, Ayman al-Zawahri.
More likely, they say, it would be a senior Chechen or Uzbek militant - because of the large number of Central Asians arrested and radio conversations intercepted in Chechen and Uzbek.
Fifteen soldiers were killed on the first day of the offensive. The bodies of six men killed by the army have been taken to the city of Rawalpindi for DNA analysis.
Surrender call
Military officials said a Pakistani army camp came under fire overnight.
US-led forces are backing the operation involving more than 5,000 Pakistani troops by patrolling the area on the Afghan side of the border.
Pakistani forces have arrested about 100 suspects who they say include al-Qaeda members, renegade tribesman and Uzbek and Chechen militants.
Some of the detainees have been taken to be questioned in the provincial capital, Peshawar, officials said.
Military spokesman Major General Shaukat Sultan told AFP: "They are being interrogated by military intelligence experts.
"They are a mixed bag of locals, Chechens, Uzbeks - there could be Arabs. But since they do not carry any identification on them and there is no-one to identify who is who, this can only be confirmed after interrogations."
Separately, the Pakistan military confirmed that up to 13 civilians were killed on Saturday when their vehicle came under fire in South Waziristan.
But officials insisted that the rocket which hit the van came from the militants, not an army helicopter as has been claimed.
As the operation continues, it has emerged that a senior United States army figure, General John Abizaid, in in Pakistan on an unannounced visit.
General Abizaid is head of the US Central Command. Pakistani officials would not give details of his visit.

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Kerry's Tax-Return Shuffle
Has he released his records, or not?
In January, as the battle for the Democratic nomination raged in Iowa and New Hampshire, the campaign of retired General Wesley Clark sent a letter to fellow candidate John Kerry. "Release your tax returns for the past five years," the letter asked Kerry. "In the interest of full disclosure for the voting public, join General Clark in making the full public record available to voters."
On January 18, during an interview on ABC's This Week, Kerry was asked to respond. "I began the process of putting out tax returns long before Wesley Clark was a Democrat," Kerry said. "I released all my tax returns for 20 years. I have never not released my tax returns throughout my political career."
The answer seemed simple enough, but it turns out the reality is not so simple. Despite Kerry's claim, it is not at all clear that he has released his tax returns for a significant part of his time in the Senate, especially in recent years. At best, Kerry appears to have released information about his taxes on a sporadic and piecemeal basis.
Unlike Clark, Kerry has not made his tax information available in a public forum, such as his campaign website. A Kerry campaign spokeswoman, Stephanie Cutter, saying Kerry has released his returns "every year," promised on Friday to e-mail NRO copies of the candidate's returns for the last five years. The e-mail never arrived, nor did Cutter respond to several follow-up calls.
That leaves a check of news databases as the best way to determine whether Kerry has in fact released information for a given year. And from those sources, the facts about Kerry's taxes appear spotty at best.
Looking at the last five years, as Clark requested, there are no published indications that Kerry has made his full tax returns public for the years 2001, 2000, 1999, and 1998. As for 2002, it appears that last December, at the time Kerry made an $850,000 loan to his then-struggling campaign, he apparently released his 2002 return to some reporters.
The issue is likely to come to the fore in the next few weeks as millions of Americans prepare to file their income tax forms by the April 15 deadline. Cutter says Kerry will release his 2003 returns. And President Bush is expected to make public his returns, as he has done each year he has been in the White House. The president also released his tax returns during his years as governor of Texas, from 1994 to 2000, and also from the years 1991 to 1993, which he made public when he was running for governor.
From the record available, it appears that Kerry has released some information, and some full returns, from the years before 1998. There are indications in the press that Kerry told at least some journalists his 1997 taxable income and charitable donation totals. In April 1997, Kerry gave the Boston Globe his 1996 returns. And during his hard-fought 1996 reelection race, Kerry released returns from 1990 through 1995.
In his first race for reelection, in 1990, Kerry criticized opponent Jim Rappaport for not releasing his tax returns. "The real issue is why Jim Rappaport won't come clean with the citizens of Massachusetts," Kerry told the Boston Globe. "What's he hiding?"
As for the details that are known about Kerry's finances, in 2002, he reportedly had an income of $144,091. He paid $29,946 in federal taxes, $7,286 in Massachusetts state taxes, and gave $18,600 to charity. The Associated Press also reported that Kerry filed separately from his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, who has a fortune estimated at more than half a billion dollars.
In 1997, Kerry reportedly had a taxable income of $217,338 and gave $21,795 to charity. In 1996, according to the Boston Globe, Kerry had a taxable income of $143,795 and paid $31,328 in federal taxes and $8,235 in Massachusetts state taxes. He donated $14,325 to charity.
Kerry's returns from 1995 and earlier, before his marriage to Heinz, have sometimes attracted criticism over the issue of charitable giving. In 1995, according to published reports, Kerry reported a taxable income of $126,179, and charitable contributions of $0. In 1994, he reported income of $127,884, and charitable donations of $2,039. In 1993, he reported income of $130,345, and contributions of $175. In 1992, he reported income of $127,646, and contributions of $820. In 1991, he reported income of $113,857, and contributions of $0.
As far as Bush is concerned, in 1991, the future president, then a private citizen, reportedly had income of $179,591, and charitable contributions of $28,236. In 1992, Bush reported income of $212.313, and contributions of $31,914. In 1993, Bush reported income of $610,772, and contributions of $31,292. In 1994, Bush reported income of $474,937 and in 1995, income of $419,481. Published reports at that time did not list Bush's charitable contributions for those two years.
Bush first released his tax returns in April, 1994, when he challenged Texas Governor Ann Richards. Bush released returns going back to 1991, he said, because those were the years that Richards had been in office. His action spurred a number of negative stories, as reporters and Richards criticized business arrangements detailed in the returns.
When he became governor himself, Bush's returns revealed sometimes-major changes in his financial health. For example, after his 1997 return showed income of $271,920, his 1998 return revealed income of $18.4 million. The vast majority of that came from the sale of the Texas Rangers baseball team, in which Bush held an 11-percent ownership stake. Bush's tax bill that year was $3.7 million. "I never dreamed I'd write a check that big," he told reporters at the time. "Of course, I never dreamed I'd make that much money, either." That year, Bush donated $334,425 to charity.
It is not clear whether Kerry's returns, if he chooses to release them, will reveal much about his financial arrangements. But it does seem clear that Kerry can expect criticism from Republicans unless he releases his returns for the last several years. "The president has shown a consistent willingness to be upfront and to disclose these types of things to the American people," says one GOP official. "It remains to be seen whether John Kerry will follow that high example."

http://www.nationalreview.com/york/york200403220840.asp

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Un texte attribu? ? Al-Qaida menace d'attentats "les valets de l'Am?rique"
LEMONDE.FR | 18.03.04 | 09h09
Le communiqu? indique qu'Al-Qaida a d?cid? de ne pas mener d'attentat d'envergure aux Etats-Unis pour ne pas provoquer la d?faite de M. Bush ? la pr?sidentielle de novembre, car "la nation islamique a besoin de la stupidit? et du chauvinisme religieux d'un tel pr?sident pour se r?veiller".
Un communiqu? attribu? ? Al-Qaida menace d'attentats similaires ? ceux de Madrid "les valets de l'Am?rique". Le texte cite le Japon, l'Italie, la Grande-Bretagne, l'Arabie saoudite, l'Australie et le Pakistan, rapporte le quotidien Al-Qods Al-Arabi sur son site jeudi matin 18 mars.
L'authenticit? de ce communiqu? dat? du 15 mars et sign? des "Brigades Abou Hafs Al-Masri/Al-Qaida", n'a pu ?tre v?rifi?e. Il a ?t? re?u par le journal arabe bas? ? Londres.
Le texte appelle aussi ses "brigades" en Europe ? suspendre "les op?rations contre les civils en Espagne, en attendant de conna?tre les orientations du nouveau gouvernement qui a promis de retirer son arm?e d'Irak et qu'on s'assure de sa non-ing?rence dans les affaires des musulmans".
"Nous avons laiss? le peuple espagnol choisir entre la guerre et la paix. Il a choisi la paix en ?lisant le parti qui ?tait oppos? ? l'alliance avec l'Am?rique dans sa guerre contre l'islam", estime le texte, en allusion ? la d?faite du parti de Jos? Maria Aznar aux l?gislatives de dimanche, trois jours apr?s les attentats des trains ? Madrid dans lesquels 201 personnes ont p?ri.
"LES BRIGADES DE LA MORT SONT ? VOS PORTES"
"Aux valets de l'Am?rique, nous disons : voil? qu'un valet de l'Am?rique a d?truit son avenir (politique) en s'alliant au tyran du si?cle. Voil? Aznar qui sera jet? dans la poubelle de l'histoire", affirme le texte.
"Tirez la le?on ? valets de l'Am?rique, les brigades de la mort sont ? vos portes. Nous allons vous frapper d'une main de fer, ? l'endroit et au moment ad?quats", poursuit le texte, mentionnant "les valets arabes et musulmans, comme Moucharraf et les Al-Saoud", le pr?sident pakistanais et la famille r?gnante en Arabie saoudite. "Nos brigades se pr?parent maintenant ? la nouvelle frappe. Est-ce que ce sera le tour du Japon, de l'Am?rique, de l'Italie, de la Grande-Bretagne, des Al-Saoud, de l'Australie...", interroge le texte.
"Qui vous prot?gera des voitures, des trains et des avions de la mort ?" poursuit le texte qui constitue une nouvelle revendication des attentats de Madrid.
Le 11 mars, jour des attentats, un communiqu? attribu? au r?seau terroriste Al-Qaida et re?u par Al-Qods Al-Arabi, a revendiqu? ces attentats. Une deuxi?me revendication, ?manant aussi des "Brigades Abou Hafs Al-Masri" et contenue dans une vid?o, a ?t? trouv?e trois jours plus tard par les autorit?s espagnoles.
"NOUS AVONS BESOIN DE TA STUPIDIT?"
Le nouveau communiqu? explique aussi la rapidit? inhabituelle avec laquelle Al-Qaida avait revendiqu? les attentats de Madrid par "le facteur temps qui ?tait tr?s important pour d?truire le gouvernement Aznar".
Il ajoute en outre qu'Al-Qaida a d?cid? de ne pas mener d'attentat d'envergure aux Etats-Unis pour ne pas provoquer la d?faite de M. Bush ? la pr?sidentielle de novembre, car "la nation islamique a besoin de la stupidit? et du chauvinisme religieux d'un tel pr?sident pour se r?veiller".
"Nous savons que tu vis les pires jours de ta vie, de peur des brigades de la mort. Nous savons aussi qu'une op?ration d'envergure (aux Etats-Unis) d?truira ton administration. Nous ne souhaitons aucunement ta d?faite aux ?lections car nous ne trouverons personne d'autre plus stupide que toi, quelqu'un qui comme toi recourt ? la force plut?t qu'? la sagesse. Nous avons besoin de ta stupidit? et ton chauvinisme religieux pour que notre nation se r?veille", selon le texte.
"En fait, il n'y a pas de diff?rence entre toi et Kerry (le candidat d?mocrate John Kerry) mais les d?mocrates sont suffisamment rus?s pour maquiller l'infid?lit? et la faire passer pour de la modernit?, pour tuer notre nation arabo-islamique. C'est pourquoi nous voulons ta victoire, Bush le criminel", conclut le texte.
Abou Hafs Al-Masri, chef des op?rations militaires d'Al-Qaida, avait ?t? tu? durant les op?rations de l'arm?e am?ricaine en Afghanistan en octobre 2001.

Avec AFP
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POINT DE VUE
Comment j'ai chang? d'avis sur l'Irak, par Michael Ignatieff
LE MONDE | 20.03.04 | 13h11 * MIS A JOUR LE 20.03.04 | 13h33
Il y a un an, j'?tais un partisan peu enthousiaste mais convaincu de la guerre en Irak. Un an plus tard, les armes de destruction massive n'ont pas ?t? trouv?es, les Irakiens trouvent la mort sur le chemin de la mosqu?e, la d?mocratie est renvoy?e ? l'ann?e prochaine et mes amis me demandent tous si j'ai chang? d'avis. Qui pourrait faire autrement ?
J'ai commenc? ? changer d'avis au moment du d?bat de l'an dernier. Nous pensions ?tre en train de discuter de l'Irak, mais la recherche de la meilleure option pour les 25 millions d'Irakiens n'apparaissait gu?re dans la discussion. Comme d'habitude, nous parlions de nous-m?mes : de ce qu'est l'Am?rique et de la fa?on d'utiliser sa puissance effrayante dans le monde.
Le d?bat se transforma en une dispute sur les id?ologies d?guis?es en histoires. Les r?publicains conservateurs nous ont servi l'Am?rique lib?ratrice ; les lib?raux nous ont servi l'Am?rique sournoise qui soutient des dirigeants sc?l?rats et qui renverse ceux qui ont ?t? ?lus d?mocratiquement.
Aucune de ces histoires n'?tait fausse : le plan Marshall a vraiment montr? que l'Am?rique pouvait bien faire les choses.
Le renversement du pr?sident Allende au Chili et le soutien aux escadrons de la mort en Am?rique latine ont montr? que l'Am?rique pouvait causer des torts graves.
Quoi qu'il en soit, les pr?c?dents et les id?ologies ?taient hors de propos, car l'Irak ?tait l'Irak. Et il s'est av?r? que personne ne savait vraiment grand-chose sur l'Irak.
Un an plus tard, l'Irak n'est plus un pr?texte ni une abstraction. C'est un endroit o? des Am?ricains, et des Irakiens aussi, meurent en nombre croissant. Ce qui rend ces morts particuli?rement obs?dantes, c'est que personne ne peut honn?tement dire - du moins pas encore - si elles seront rachet?es par l'?mergence d'un Irak libre ou rendues inutiles par un plongeon dans la guerre civile.
J'ai soutenu la guerre comme la moins mauvaise des options possibles. Le confinement - garder Saddam Hussein dans une bo?te - aurait pu rendre la guerre inutile, mais la bo?te a montr? des fuites. Hussein ?chappait aux sanctions, s'enrichissait par des ventes ill?gales de p?trole et, c'est du moins ce que je pensais ? l'?poque, commen?ait ? reconstituer ses programmes d'armement qui avaient ?t? d?truits par les inspecteurs des Nations unies. S'il acqu?rait des armes, on pouvait le dissuader de s'en servir lui-m?me, mais il risquait d'?tre capable de faire passer des technologies meurtri?res ? des kamikazes impossibles ? dissuader. Cette ?ventualit? paraissait peut-?tre lointaine mais, apr?s le 11 septembre, il semblait imprudent de ne pas en tenir compte.
Pourtant, me disais-je, la force doit ?tre le dernier recours. Si Hussein avait ob?i aux inspecteurs, je n'aurais pas soutenu l'invasion, mais ? l'?vidence, du moins jusqu'en mars 2003, il continuait ? jouer le m?me jeu. Pour qu'il cesse de jouer ce jeu, il fallait une d?monstration de force cr?dible, et les Fran?ais, les Russes et les Chinois n'?taient pas pr?ts ? approuver l'option militaire. Le d?sarmement passait donc par un changement de r?gime. L? o? j'habite - dans le Massachusetts lib?ral -, cette id?e n'?tait pas populaire.
Je suis apr?s tout surpris qu'on ait d?couvert qu'Hussein n'avait pas d'armes, mais cela ne change pas mon point de vue sur la question essentielle. Je n'ai jamais pens? que le probl?me-cl? ?tait les armes qu'il poss?dait r?ellement mais plut?t quelles ?taient ses intentions.
M'?tant rendu ? Halabja en 1992 et ayant parl? avec les survivants de l'attaque chimique qui a tu? 5 000 Kurdes irakiens en mars 1988, je pensais que, s'il pouvait y avoir des doutes sur les moyens d'Hussein, il ne pouvait y en avoir aucun sur la malveillance de ses intentions. Il est vrai que les intentions malveillantes ne manquent pas dans notre monde, mais Hussein avait r?ellement utilis? des armes chimiques.
Si on regardait l'avenir, une fois les sanctions tomb?es en d?su?tude, lorsque les inspecteurs auraient ?t? embobin?s et quand les revenus du p?trole auraient commenc? ? monter, on ?tait certain que, t?t ou tard, il ferait co?ncider les intentions et les moyens.
Les d?tracteurs de la guerre disaient que tout cela ?tait hors de propos. La v?ritable question ?tait le p?trole. Mais ils ont m?sestim? la pertinence du p?trole. Si l'Am?rique ne se souciait que du p?trole, elle aurait fait de la l?che ? Hussein, comme par le pass?. Le p?trole ?tait un facteur important dans la guerre, pr?cis?ment parce que ses revenus distinguaient Hussein des autres dictateurs malveillants. C'?tait le facteur d?cisif qui devait lui permettre, t?t ou tard, d'acqu?rir les armes pour ?tre en mesure d'attaquer de nouveau les Kurdes, d'achever l'an?antissement des chiites, de menacer l'Arabie saoudite et de continuer ? soutenir les kamikazes palestiniens, ainsi que, peut-?tre, Al-Qaida.
Je ne crois toujours pas que les dirigeants am?ricains et britanniques aient d?form? les intentions d'Hussein, ni qu'ils aient menti sur les armes qu'ils croyaient en sa possession. Dans ses r?cents M?moires, Hans Blix pr?cise bien que lui-m?me et les autres inspecteurs des Nations unies pensaient qu'Hussein dissimulait quelque chose et tous les services de renseignement qu'ils ont consult?s le pensaient aussi.
Si le mensonge n'?tait pas le probl?me, l'exag?ration l'?tait et aucun de ceux qui soutenaient la guerre n'appr?cie la fa?on dont "un danger grave et grandissant" - selon les termes dont Bush a prudemment us? pour qualifier le r?gime de Hussein dans son discours aux Nations unies en septembre 2002 - s'est lentement m?tamorphos? en une menace "imminente".
L'argument l?gitime de la guerre ?tait la "pr?vention" - emp?cher un tyran aux intentions malveillantes d'acqu?rir des moyens meurtriers ou de transmettre ces moyens ? d'autres ennemis. L'argument que nous avons r?ellement entendu ?tait la "pr?emption" - arr?ter un tyran qui poss?dait d?j? des armes et pr?sentait un danger imminent.
Pour moi, le probl?me est que si on avait avanc? l'argument l?gitime - celui d'une guerre pr?ventive oppos? ? celui d'une guerre pr?emptive -, la guerre aurait ?t? encore plus impopulaire qu'elle ne l'a ?t?. C'est ?galement un probl?me pour les opposants. S'ils n'ont pas pens? que l'argument d'une guerre pr?ventive a ?t? prouv? cette fois-ci, qu'est-ce qui pourra les convaincre la prochaine fois ? A moins de menaces imminentes, les peuples d?mocratiques ne veulent pas se battre, mais s'ils attendent l'imminence des menaces, le tribut de la guerre risque de devenir prohibitif.
La prochaine fois qu'un pr?sident am?ricain expliquera le bien-fond? d'une guerre pour r?pondre ? une menace suppos?e d'armes de destruction massive, presque tout le monde, y compris des membres du Conseil de s?curit?, croira qu'il crie au loup. Et si ce n'est pas le cas ? Et si l'exemple de l'Irak am?ne l'?lectorat et les politiciens ? r?pondre trop lentement au prochain tyran ou au prochain terroriste ? M?me si je pensais que l'argument en faveur d'une guerre pr?ventive ?tait fort, il n'?tait pas d?cisif. On pouvait encore soutenir que la menace n'?tait pas imminente et que les risques du combat ?taient trop grands. J'ai pench? en faveur de ces risques, parce que j'?tais convaincu qu'Hussein dirigeait un r?gime particuli?rement odieux et parce que la guerre offrait la seule v?ritable chance de le renverser. C'?tait un argument quelque peu opportuniste en faveur de la guerre, car je savais que l'administration ne consid?rait la lib?ration de l'Irak de la tyrannie que comme un objectif secondaire.
Le 19 mars 2003, la nuit o? les bombardements ont commenc?, j'?tais avec un exil? irakien (oui, je sais, mais certains sont des gens honorables et courageux), et il m'a dit : "Voyez-vous, de ma vie, c'est la premi?re et la seule occasion donn?e ? mon peuple pour cr?er une soci?t? convenable." Quand j'ai dit que c'?tait l? un argument essentiel en faveur de la guerre, des amis se sont mis ? rire. Ne savais-je pas que l'administration se moquait pas mal que l'Irak soit convenable du moment qu'il ?tait stable et ob?issant ? J'ai r?pondu que si les bons r?sultats devaient attendre les bonnes intentions, il nous faudrait attendre ?ternellement.
Ainsi donc, soutenir la guerre voulait dire soutenir une administration dont je n'approuvais pas enti?rement les motivations dans l'int?r?t des cons?quences auxquelles je croyais. Ce n'?tait pas la seule difficult?. Depuis la Bosnie et le Kosovo, un consensus avait ?merg? lentement pour dire qu'une intervention dans le but de mettre fin au nettoyage ethnique ou au g?nocide pouvait se justifier en dernier recours. De nombreux Etats, cependant, paraissent encore croire que l'aspiration ? lib?rer un peuple d'un r?gime tyrannique est un raisonnement en expansion continuelle pour justifier l'agression am?ricaine.
En outre, un changement de r?gime a un co?t ?vident - des morts chez les Irakiens et les Am?ricains, une Am?rique en d?saccord avec beaucoup de ses alli?s et les Nations unies. Je pouvais respecter quiconque soutenait que ces co?ts ?taient trop ?lev?s. Ce que je trouvais plus difficile ? respecter ?tait l'indiff?rence apparente de mes amis oppos?s ? la guerre pour ce que co?tait le fait de permettre ? Hussein de rester au pouvoir. Ce prix - celui de faire ce qu'ils consid?raient comme une attitude juste, prudente et non violente - serait support? par les seuls Irakiens. C'?tait les Irakiens qui devraient rester enferm?s dans un Etat policier. Ce que cela signifiait n'?tait pas une abstraction pour tous ceux qui s'?taient vraiment rendus dans le pays.
Alors, quand on disait : "Je sais que c'est un dictateur, mais...", le "mais" avait l'air d'une d?robade morale. Et quand on disait : "Il a commis un g?nocide, mais c'?tait hier", je me disais : depuis quand les crimes contre l'humanit? ont-ils droit ? des restrictions ? Quand enfin on disait : "Il existe de nombreux dictateurs et les Etats-Unis soutiennent la plupart d'entre eux", j'entendais cela comme un alibi mielleux pour ne rien faire. A pr?sent, un an plus tard, j'entends les m?mes gens me dire qu'ils sont contents qu'Hussein soit parti, mais...
L'argumentation de l'administration Bush en faveur de la guerre aurait certainement ?t? plus convaincante si elle avait reconnu la connivence des administrations pr?c?dentes dans les infamies d'Hussein, illustr?e par exemple par la visite amicale de Donald Rumsfeld ? Bagdad en 1993 en tant qu'envoy? du pr?sident Reagan ou le fait que l'Am?rique s'est abstenue de d?noncer l'invasion sanglante de l'Iran par Hussein en 1980 et son emploi des gaz contre les Kurdes en 1988.
Comme Oussama Ben Laden, que les Etats-Unis ont financ? dans les ann?es 1980, Hussein ?tait un monstre en partie fabriqu? par l'Am?rique. L'exp?rience devrait nous apprendre que deux maximes de la politique ?trang?re am?ricaine suppos?e r?aliste datant de l'?poque de la guerre froide doivent ?tre mises au rebut. La premi?re est : "L'ennemi de mon ennemi est mon ami" et la seconde : "C'est peut-?tre un salaud, mais au moins c'est notre salaud." Ces deux principes nous ont conduits dans les bras de Ben Laden et d'Hussein et des Am?ricains sont morts pour nous lib?rer de leur ?treinte mortelle.
Il aurait ?t? bon que, de temps en temps, les acteurs de la politique ?trang?re am?ricaine reconnaissent ces erreurs. Cela ne veut pas n?cessairement dire, comme les lib?raux semblent le supposer, qu'? cause de son histoire coupable l'Am?rique a eu tort d'aller en Irak. Les bonnes actions sont souvent le fait de gens qui ont une mauvaise histoire. Et je ne voyais pas comment j'aurais pu vouloir la fin - le d?part d'Hussein - sans accepter les seuls moyens dispo-nibles : l'invasion par l'Am?rique, et seule, si n?cessaire. Un changement de r?gime pacifique - par le biais de sanctions, de coups d'Etat foment?s et de soutien ? l'insurrection int?rieure - n'a men? nulle part.
J'ai donc soutenu une administration dont je n'approuvais pas les intentions, pensant que les cons?quences valaient la mise. Je m'aper?ois aujourd'hui que les intentions fa?onnent les cons?quences. Une administration s'int?ressant plus sinc?rement aux droits de l'homme aurait compris qu'il ne peut ?tre question de droits de l'homme sans ordre et que l'ordre ne peut ?tre ?tabli apr?s une victoire si les plans pour l'invasion sont dissoci?s des plans pour l'occupation. L'administration n'a pas compris que d?s le premier instant o? une colonne de blind?s s'emparait d'une ville, il fallait imm?diatement mettre en place une police militaire et, dans la foul?e, des administrateurs civils pour garder les mus?es, les h?pitaux, les stations de pompage et les g?n?rateurs ?lectriques, pour faire cesser le pillage, les meurtres par vengeance et les crimes. Le maintien de l'ordre aurait signifi? l'envoi de 250 000 hommes en Irak au lieu de 130 000. Cela aurait signifi? le maintien et la reprise de l'entra?nement de l'arm?e et de la police irakiennes au lieu de leur dissolution. L'administration, qui ne se lasse jamais de nous dire que l'espoir n'est pas un plan, avait l'espoir comme seul plan en Irak.
L'espoir a entrav? la r?flexion claire, mais l'imagination aussi : elle a fait croire que les chiites, que George Bush p?re a encourag?s ? se soulever en 1991 en se contentant d'attendre et de les regarder se faire massacrer, accueilleraient leurs tra?tres de l'?poque en lib?rateurs, elle a fait croire qu'une minorit? sunnite privil?gi?e s'adapterait avec enthousiasme ? un statut minoritaire permanent dans un Irak chiite. Quand l'imagination gouverne les plans, le chaos en r?sulte.
L'administration a suppos? qu'elle prenait la direction d'un Etat qui fonctionnait et s'est aper?ue, lorsque les pillards ont tout pris dans les bureaux et lorsque les fonctionnaires du parti Baas sont all?s se cacher, que l'Am?rique avait h?rit? de son propre Etat en faillite. L'administration est entr?e en Irak en supposant que son d?fi ?tait humanitaire. Elle a d?couvert en se r?veillant que son d?fi ?tait la r?sistance arm?e. Toutes les interventions comportent certaines illusions, mais si ces illusions sont n?cessaires pour qu'une administration veuille bien risquer une intervention, il faut intervenir moins souvent dans l'avenir.
Maintenant que nous en sommes l?, notre probl?me n'est plus l'espoir et l'illusion, mais le d?sespoir et la d?sillusion. La couverture m?diatique de Bagdad est si sombre qu'il est difficile de se souvenir qu'un dictateur est parti, que le p?trole est de nouveau pomp? et que la constitution int?rimaire propos?e contient d'importantes garanties des droits de l'homme. Nous paraissons ne pas m?me reconna?tre la libert? quand nous la voyons : centaines de milliers de chiites marchant pieds nus dans la ville sainte de Karbala, Irakiens venant ? des r?unions municipales et s'essayant pour la premi?re fois ? la d?mocratie, journaux et presse libre surgissant partout, manifestations quotidiennes dans les rues.
Si la libert? est le seul objectif qui rach?te les nombreux morts, il y a davantage de libert? en Irak qu'? n'importe quel autre moment de son histoire. Et pourquoi devrions-nous supposer que la libert? sera autrement que d?sordonn?e, chaotique, voire effrayante ? Pourquoi devrions-nous ?tre surpris que les Irakiens utilisent leur libert? pour nous dire de rentrer chez nous ? Ne ferions-nous pas la m?me chose ?
La libert? seule ne suffit pas, naturellement. La transformation de la libert? en ordre constitutionnel ? long terme d?pend de l'?ventualit? qu'une r?sistance acharn?e qui n'h?site pas ? monter un musulman contre un autre musulman, l'Irak contre l'Irak, puisse amener une administration craignant pour sa r??lection ? r?duire la pr?sence militaire am?ricaine. Si les Etats-Unis h?sitent maintenant, la guerre civile est parfaitement possible. S'ils h?sitent, ils trahiront tous ceux qui sont morts pour un avenir meilleur.
Les interventions reviennent ? une promesse : nous promettons que nous laisserons le pays en meilleur ?tat que nous l'avons trouv?, nous promettons que ceux qui sont morts pour en arriver l? ne sont pas morts en vain. Ces promesses n'ont jamais ?t? aussi difficiles ? tenir qu'en Irak. L'internationalisme lib?ral que j'ai soutenu au cours des ann?es 1990 - les interventions en Bosnie, au Kosovo, au Timor-Oriental - semble un jeu d'enfant en comparaison. Ces actions ?taient un pari, mais un pari avec une garantie d'impunit? : si nous ne r?ussissions pas, le prix de l'?chec n'?tait pas tr?s s?v?re. En Irak, la partie se joue pour de vrai. Il n'y a plus d'impunit?. De braves gens meurent et aucun pr?sident, d?mocrate ou r?publicain, ne peut se permettre de trahir ce sacrifice.
Michael Ignatieff est directeur du Carr Center ? la Kennedy School of Government de l'universit? Harvard (Cambridge, Massachusetts).

Traduit de l'anglais (Etats-Unis) par Florence L?vy-Paoloni. ?The New York Times Company.

* ARTICLE PARU DANS L'EDITION DU 21.03.04
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Chirac seul au pouvoir
LE MONDE | 22.03.04 | 13h17
Deux ans apr?s sa r??lection, le pr?sident de la R?publique, de plus en plus isol?, affaibli par l'affaire Jupp?, la crise ?conomique et l'impopularit? du premier ministre, r?fl?chit ? la deuxi?me phase de son mandat
Douze ? table, autour de Jacques Chirac : la sc?ne s'est produite maintes fois, avant ce mercredi 17 mars. Les d?put?s de la majorit?, que le pr?sident convie ? d?jeuner par fourn?es mensuelles ? l'Elys?e, sont rarement plus nombreux. "Chirac fait remonter des infos sur l'atmosph?re dans le pays", "il a besoin d'une caisse de r?sonance", "il veut voir des ?lus tr?s proches du terrain" - comme il le fait depuis tr?s longtemps -, expliquent les uns. "Il sait combien l'Elys?e peut ?tre une prison", commente un autre. Dr?le de mot.
Ce 17 mars, donc, le pr?sident ?coute les inqui?tudes et les r?criminations, courtoises mais fermes, des ?lus de l'UMP. On lui parle du "d?samour irrationnel de l'ex?cutif" dans l'opinion, que beaucoup attribuent "? la fa?on dont sont trait?s les dossiers". Le conflit des intermittents - qui dure depuis la fin du printemps 2003 -, celui des chercheurs, le malaise ? l'h?pital, reviennent dans la bouche des convives comme autant d'exemples de ce qu'il ne fallait pas faire. Bernadette Chirac, en campagne en Corr?ze pour les ?lections r?gionales et cantonales, l'a point? aussi, quelques jours auparavant. "Les gens comprennent ce que Raffarin veut faire. Ce qu'ils ne comprennent pas, ils ne me le diront pas, par politesse", a-t-elle gliss?. La remarque n'est pas anodine de la part de celle qui fut l'un des meilleurs soutiens du premier ministre. Jamais le nom de Jean-Pierre Raffarin n'est cit?, parmi les invit?s du pr?sident. On est entre gens polis. Jacques Chirac ne dit rien.
Puis il leur parle de d?sindustrialisation et d'emploi, leur r?pond que les probl?mes ?conomiques ne sont pas li?s ? la seule gestion nationale. Qu'il y a une n?cessit? ? reb?tir les ?quilibres entre le secteur secondaire et le secteur tertiaire ; enfin, qu'il faut "passer d'une soci?t? ? une autre". L'une de ses remarques, en forme de recommandation, laisse quelques convives pensifs : "Il ne faut pas que la droite soit trop ? droite." Voil? le pr?sident, r??lu par 82,2 % de ses compatriotes, qui se rappelle le 5 mai 2002 - s'il l'a jamais oubli? un seul jour, depuis bient?t deux ans.
Une chance folle, au go?t amer, l'a de nouveau port? au pouvoir, apr?s un septennat g?ch? par la dissolution de 1997 et par les affaires. Tous les espoirs lui sont alors permis. En juin 2002, l'Assembl?e nationale lui apporte une grande vague bleue. Cinq mois plus tard, en novembre, l'Union pour un mouvement populaire, rassemblement des familles de droite, devient son bras arm?. M?me si l'UDF, qui fait figure de petit village gaulois, refuse de rentrer dans le rang. Pourtant, aujourd'hui, Jacques Chirac glisse insensiblement dans l'isolement du pouvoir.
A l'Elys?e, peu nombreux sont ceux qui, d?sormais, osent contredire le pr?sident. Effet de l'?ge ? Du deuxi?me mandat ? La libert? de ton s'est envol?e avec le d?part de Dominique de Villepin au Quai d'Orsay. "Il le dynamitait, le bousculait. Il n'h?sitait pas, m?me s'il se trompait parfois. C'?taient deux personnalit?s compl?mentaires", t?moigne un acteur du premier cercle. C'?tait un syst?me "en permanence en dynamique". Depuis qu'il l'a quitt?, le Palais chuchote, au lieu de retentir de contestations, de confrontations. On fait des notes au pr?sident. Il les annote. "C'est ?a la solitude. Il y a un moment o? l'on n'a plus envie d'?tre emmerd?", l?che un ancien collaborateur.
L'actuel secr?taire g?n?ral, Philippe Bas, et ses adjoints, sont aussi peu politiques que possible. Ils ont m?me ?t? choisis pour cela. Grands serviteurs de l'Etat, rien au-del?. Et ce ne sont pas les quelques d?put?s que M. Bas rencontre chaque semaine qui y changeront quoi que ce soit. Il y a bien, toujours, J?r?me Monod et Maurice Ulrich, les vieux compagnons, mais ils contredisent assez peu le pr?sident. Le chef de l'Etat s'est m?me agac? que M. Monod apparaisse si visiblement dans les man?uvres de l'UMP. L'Elys?e ne doit pas ?tre la cuisine o? se mitonne la tambouille ?lectorale. En tout cas, il ne faut pas que cela se voie.
Ah, l'UMP ! Union pour un mouvement populaire. Ci-g?t, pour l'instant, une cruelle d?ception. Et tant de points d'interrogation pour le pr?sident. D'union, elle n'a encore que le nom. Appareil plus que mouvement, il lui reste ? d?montrer qu'elle m?rite l'adjectif "populaire". Surtout, l'UMP est en demi-deuil de son chef, Alain Jupp?. Ce fut le gros coup dur du d?but de l'ann?e 2004 pour Jacques Chirac. Le plus incroyable est qu'il n'ait pas s?rieusement envisag? le sc?nario le plus noir, celui choisi par les juges du tribunal de Nanterre : dix-huit mois de prison avec sursis et dix ans d'in?ligibilit? automatique pour le pr?sident de l'UMP. Le chef de l'Etat ne comptait pas sur l'indulgence des juges. Mais il esp?rait, comme le lui avaient souffl? ses conseillers, que M. Jupp? pourrait obtenir, sur simple requ?te aupr?s du tribunal, une "dispense de B2", c'est-?-dire la non-inscription de la peine au casier judiciaire, qui aurait de facto lev? l'in?ligibilit?.
Au fond, se disait M. Chirac, le d?lit reproch? ? Alain Jupp? ne pourrait-il pas l'?tre ? bien d'autres ? "Il n'y a pas, d'un c?t?, chez les hommes politiques fran?ais, les corrompus et, de l'autre, les vertueux", avait-il expliqu? ? Patrick Poivre d'Arvor, le 11 f?vrier 2002 sur TF1 - pour se d?fendre lui-m?me. "J'ai ?t? le premier (...) ? faire passer une loi (...) sur le financement des partis politiques. A partir de l?, les choses ont ?t? r?guli?res et normales", avait-il assur?. Pas tout ? fait, cependant. M. Chirac n'a pas compris que les juges allaient appliquer la loi pour Alain Jupp? comme pour n'importe quel petit voleur de mobylette. Avec, en prime, des attendus s?v?res. Et que l'opinion trouverait cela juste.
Soudain, c'est ? lui-m?me qu'il pense. Bien s?r, la peine d'Alain Jupp?, dans tous les sens du terme, le choque et le chagrine. Il a pour l'ancien premier ministre "du respect, de l'attachement, de la consid?ration", comme le souligne un conseiller de l'Elys?e qui a pratiqu? les deux hommes. Le caract?re brillant, rapide, de cet ?ternel premier de la classe l'a toujours s?duit. Et voil? que le bon ?l?ve s'effondre, laissant le roi quasi nu. Ce n'est pas tant qu'il perde un dauphin. M. Chirac ne s'est jamais choisi un successeur. Mieux que personne, il sait qu'une ?lection, cela se gagne. Qu'en politique, on n'est pas nomm?, on doit ?tre ?lu. "On n'h?rite pas d'un rapport avec le peuple. C'est quelque chose qui se construit dans un rapport personnel", confirme un proche du pr?sident. Son score massif du 5 mai l'a prouv?. La gauche a vot? pour lui afin de d?fendre des valeurs contre le Front national ; l'aurait-elle fait pour un autre ?
L'affaire Jupp? affaiblit le pr?sident au plus mauvais moment. L'automne 2003 a ?t? un cauchemar, ponctu? par les annonces d?sordonn?es du gouvernement, sur fond de crise ?conomique : hausse du tabac et du gazole, r?duction de la dur?e de versement de l'allocation des ch?meurs en fin de droits, suppression d'un jour f?ri?... Tout cela balaie l'augmentation r?elle du SMIC pour les plus bas salaires, d?cid?e en juillet 2002, la r?forme des retraites et la baisse des imp?ts, promesse de campagne, qui doit ?tre appliqu?e sur la dur?e de la mandature. En priv?, d?j?, M. Chirac s'est montr? f?ch? que le ministre des finances, Francis Mer, ne cesse de critiquer cette mesure, qui ne pourra, selon Bercy, ?tre financ?e.
C'est l'une des raisons - certes annexe - qui le poussent ? pr?parer, dans le plus grand secret, l'exon?ration de la taxe professionnelle pour les entreprises, annonc?e lors de ses v?ux du mois de janvier. Rien ne filtre de l'Elys?e. Plusieurs ballons d'essai ont ?t? lanc?s, dans les mois pr?c?dents, par le secr?taire d'Etat aux PME, Renaud Dutreil. Bercy les a imm?diatement contr?s. Impensable, infaisable, pas finan?able. Un des rares proches du chef de l'Etat, qui n'a pas sa langue dans sa poche, r?sume cr?ment la situation : "On en avait marre que le minist?re des finances nous chie dans les bottes. On l'a fait sans eux."
A ce moment, M. Chirac, qui s'est beaucoup investi dans le dossier de la la?cit? jusqu'en d?cembre, a grand besoin de confirmer qu'il est revenu sur la sc?ne int?rieure, dont la guerre d'Irak l'a tenu ?loign? pendant de longs mois en 2003. Le gouvernement est affaibli. Luc Ferry, le ministre de l'?ducation nationale, s'est signal? par des maladresses frisant le cocasse sur le voile ? l'?cole, Jean-Fran?ois Mattei ne s'est pas montr? plus adroit lors de la canicule, qui a min? tout l'ex?cutif. Une foule de ministricules restent inconnus du grand public dans ce "gouvernement de mission". Jean-Pierre Raffarin d?visse inexorablement dans les sondages.
Seul Nicolas Sarkozy tire son ?pingle du jeu. Populaire, le ministre de l'int?rieur a rempli son contrat en s'attaquant ? l'ins?curit?, tout en envoyant des signes ? la gauche avec l'abolition de la double peine pour les immigr?s. Il s'est m?me offert le luxe d'ouvrir la guerre de succession ? Jacques Chirac. Le pr?sident a bien vu le danger. Pas de "Tout sauf Sarkozy !". Lorsque son ami l'?crivain Denis Tillinac prend la d?fense du ministre de l'int?rieur dans Valeurs Actuelles, le 20 f?vrier, en d?clarant : "On sait bien qu'un jour il faudra choisir entre lui et quelques autres. En attendant, il serait judicieux que, dans son propre parti, on cesse de le traiter en paria", Jacques Chirac l'appelle. "Tu as bien fait. Ils sont tous ?nerv?s. Il faut que chacun se calme."
Mais comment ?teindre cette guerre suicidaire pour la droite, sinon en montrant que le pr?sident reste le seul arbitre possible au-dessus de la m?l?e ? Celui qui sent la soci?t?, qui l'aide ? basculer dans le XXIe si?cle, qui est capable de d?passer les clivages gauche-droite, en pr?sident de tous les Fran?ais. Celui qui, en d?pit de ses 71 ans, comprend la jeunesse, alors que certains de ses amis commencent ? lui dire que la France de 2004 devient aussi explosive que celle de mai 1968. Ce n'est qu'une anecdote, mais M. Chirac, racontant ? des visiteurs qu'il s'?tait mis ? ?couter Fun Radio, ne doutait pas qu'elle serait rapport?e. Un conseil sign? Claude Chirac. "Je me suis appliqu? ? ?couter pendant une dizaine de jours. Faites-le, c'est un exercice int?ressant. Au d?but, je ne comprenais qu'un mot sur deux !", a dit le pr?sident. Les rapports sur les jeunes se succ?dent sur le bureau du ministre de la famille, Christian Jacob. Le pr?sident y tient beaucoup, qui veut cerner les probl?mes de ceux qui feront l'avenir de la France. Sans lui.
En attendant, c'est la France d'aujourd'hui qui l'inqui?te, pour trois ans encore. Le pr?sident sait bien que ses concitoyens se sont d?sint?ress?s de leurs hommes politiques. Ils ne comprennent pas grand-chose ? ce pr?sident qui assure : "Je ne suis pas un lib?ral", quand eux-m?mes s'interrogent en observant la politique du gouvernement. Ils n'ont toujours pas saisi pourquoi leurs dirigeants ont tant tard? ? se montrer, quand des milliers de personnes ?g?es mouraient de chaleur en ao?t, puisqu'on leur avait promis de la "proximit?" en mai 2002.
Qu'a-t-il ? leur proposer d?sormais, sinon le retour de la croissance, qu'il tente de pr?parer ? Des valeurs. Celles, justement, que le peuple fran?ais est all? d?fendre dans la rue, le 1er mai 2002. "Tout ce qui rel?ve des valeurs r?publicaines va demander un effort extraordinairement important dans les ann?es qui viennent", insiste-t-on ? l'Elys?e. R?novation urbaine, lutte contre les discriminations, int?gration, lutte contre l'endettement, emploi des jeunes, ?galit? hommes-femmes, ?ducation seront "au c?ur de son engagement", promettent ses conseillers. En esp?rant qu'il ne restera pas, dans l'histoire, comme celui qui a d??u. Il y a au moins un titre de la presse fran?aise qui a rass?r?n? ses fid?les conseillers, plut?t moroses, ces derniers temps : "Une fois de plus, Chirac a surv?cu ? celui qui l'a sous-estim?", ont-ils lu apr?s la d?faite du premier ministre espagnol Jos?-Maria Aznar. Et lui, que fera-t-il dans la solitude de l'Elys?e ? Peut-?tre se replongera-t-il, une fois encore, dans "un ouvrage remarquable" de Jacques Pimpaneau, retra?ant la vie de grandes figures de l'histoire de la Chine, qu'il a d?j? lu "dix fois". Son titre ? Biographie des regrets ?ternels.

B?atrice Gurrey

* ARTICLE PARU DANS L'EDITION DU 23.03.04
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La lettre de Jacques Chirac ne convainc pas les chercheurs
LE MONDE | 18.03.04 | 14h50
Le chef de l'Etat a confirm? la pr?paration d'une loi d'orientation, dans un courrier adress?, mercredi 17 mars, au collectif Sauvons la recherche ! Son porte-parole, Alain Trautmann, pr?vient que le mouvement va "entrer en r?sistance". Des manifestations sont pr?vues, vendredi, ? Paris et en province.
Une semaine : c'est le temps qu'il a fallu ? Jacques Chirac pour r?pondre ? la lettre ouverte que les chercheurs lui avaient directement adress?e, le 9 mars.
Mercredi 17 mars au soir, l'Elys?e a rendu public le courrier que le pr?sident a envoy? ? Alain Trautmann, porte-parole du collectif "Sauvons la recherche !". Un calendrier qui ne doit rien au hasard, ? l'avant-veille de la manifestation annonc?e par les chercheurs et ? quatre jours du premier tour des ?lections r?gionales.
M. Chirac prend acte des "inqui?tudes" et des " attentes" qui s'expriment depuis plusieurs semaines et d?plore que la politique de recherche fran?aise ait ?t? marqu?e " par trop d'?-coups, d'incertitudes et de rigidit? d'organisation". La future loi d'orientation et de programmation, dont il a demand? le vote avant la fin 2004, devra d?finir pour la recherche un " nouveau cadre". Il faudra d?sormais hi?rarchiser les objectifs " en termes de disciplines et de projets" et planifier " de mani?re transparente" l'?volution des effectifs et des cr?dits. Le chef de l'Etat consacre aussi un long d?veloppement aux jeunes chercheurs, souhaitant que leur soient ouvertes " des perspectives nouvelles", en particulier dans le domaine des pr?visions de recrutement. Le pr?sident insiste sur le " dialogue approfondi" qui doit avoir lieu entre le gouvernement et la communaut? scientifique dans l'?laboration de la loi, qualifi?e de " texte fondateur".
C'est une d?marche assez classique de "donnant-donnant", confirm?e par les conseillers de Jean-Pierre Raffarin ? Matignon. " On veut bien mettre tout l'argent qu'il faut, mais il faut qu'en contrepartie, les chercheurs s'engagent sur la r?forme des structures, de l'organisation et du fonctionnement de la recherche en France", affirment-ils. Le gouvernement se dit " ouvert aux propositions" des chercheurs, tout en soulignant que ceux-ci devraient r?fl?chir " ? davantage de souplesse et de passerelles entre le monde de la recherche et l'universit?". A Matignon, on insiste ?galement sur le fait qu'il faudra offrir des perspectives d'emplois pour les jeunes chercheurs "en modifiant les modalit?s du recrutement".
A l'Elys?e, on soulignait depuis plusieurs semaines que certaines revendications des chercheurs ?taient " l?gitimes" - et l'on y a re?u plusieurs de leurs repr?sentants - tout en laissant agir le gouvernement. On d?plorait cependant, mezzo voce, que le dialogue n'ait pas ?t? engag? sur de bonnes bases. L'intervention directe de M. Chirac, vers lequel les chercheurs avaient fini par se tourner, souligne, d'une certaine fa?on, les insuffisances du gouvernement.
Parall?lement, les chiraquiens se sont organis?s pour tenter de d?bloquer le dialogue, ? quelques jours d'une ?ch?ance politique majeure. Bernard Accoyer, vice-pr?sident du groupe UMP de l'Assembl?e nationale, a annonc?, jeudi, la cr?ation prochaine d'une mission parlementaire sur la recherche, dans le cadre du " vaste d?bat" engag? par le gouvernement. Le S?nat a, pour sa part, ouvert sur Internet un "forum de r?flexion" sur l'avenir de la recherche fran?aise. Cette initiative s'inscrit dans le cadre d'un groupe de r?flexion informel, r?cemment constitu? par les commissions des finances, des affaires culturelles et des affaires ?conomiques, et qui rendra ses conclusions ? la ministre d?l?gu?e ? la recherche, Claudie Haigner?.
"SURDIT?"
La d?ception d'Alain Trautmann est ? la hauteur de l'espoir qu'il avait form?, avec le collectif, de voir le gouvernement effectuer "un geste envers les jeunes". "La lettre de Jacques Chirac va provoquer une ?norme d?ception chez les jeunes, car elle exprime la volont? du gouvernement de ne pas faire le geste que nous attendions et dont il a les moyens financiers", d?clare le porte-parole en faisant r?f?rence ? la demande de transformation de 550 CDD en postes statutaires fixes et de cr?ation de quelques centaines de postes d'enseignants ? l'universit?.
Jacques Fossey, secr?taire g?n?ral du Syndicat national des chercheurs scientifiques (SNCS-FSU), ne dit pas autre chose. "La lettre de Jacques Chirac n'exprime rien", juge-t-il, ajoutant que le chef de l'Etat fait montre d'une grande "surdit?" devant des "revendications ? la fois tr?s claires et tr?s raisonnables". Ces demandes ne repr?sentent en effet, selon M. Fossey, qu'"une op?ration blanche" pour le gouvernement, par rapport ? la situation de 2002, tant au niveau des postes que des budgets.
M. Trautmann prend note de la r?affirmation de la volont? pr?sidentielle d'?laborer une loi d'orientation et de programmation. Mais il critique le chef de l'Etat lorsque celui-ci laisse entendre que le Comit? d'initiative et de proposition (CIP), lanc? par Etienne-Emile Baulieu et Edouard Br?zin, s'inscrit dans le dispositif gouvernemental de "r?flexion large et ouverte"sur la recherche. "Ces ?tats g?n?raux ne sont pas un cadeau du gouvernement, r?torque M. Trautmann. Ils sont un premier succ?s de la lutte des chercheurs qui les organiseront et les ouvriront tr?s largement". M. Fossey exprime, lui aussi, la crainte que le travail men? par le CIP ne soit marginalis?.
D'autres acteurs pourraient, en effet, participer aux travaux de r?flexion pr?paratoires ? la loi. "Des consultations parall?les ont ?t? annonc?es par Luc Ferry, Claudie Haigner? et certains directeurs d'organismes de recherche tels que le CNRS, note M. Trautmann. Or, des d?bats qui seraient organis?s par des minist?res ou d'autres instances en dehors des ?tats g?n?raux, brouilleraient le paysage. Ils ne pourraient aboutir qu'? affaiblir les conclusions des travaux des Etats g?n?raux. Ils seraient antid?mocratiques et donc ill?gitimes".
Les chercheurs comptent poursuivre leur action, apr?s les manifestations du 19 mars, par "un rappel r?gulier du probl?me de la recherche, en province, aux ministres en d?placement et aux d?put?s". Et M. Trautmann de conclure : "Nous allons entrer en r?sistance."

Services France et Sciences

* ARTICLE PARU DANS L'EDITION DU 19.03.04
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Analysis: Yassin's demise could generate attacks abroad
By MARGOT DUDKEVITCH
Those who thought that hitting Sheikh Ahmed Yassin will serve as a deterrence are mistaken, Dr. Reuven Paz, research fellow of the National Policy Institute for Counter Terrorism of the Interdisciplinary Institute of Herzliya, told the Jerusalem Post.
As officials mulled over repercussions and the effect Yassin's demise would have on the Hamas movement, Maj Gen. (Res.) Amos Gilad, who heads Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz's political bureau, declared that PA chairman Yasser Arafat was no less dangerous, describing him as a most destructive force.
According to Gilad, Arafat pretends to want peace whereas Yassin was honest in his statements. "Arafat dreams of a greater Palestine that covers both Israel and Jordan," Gilad said, "and his primary tool of action is terror. If he really wanted peace, he could have had it in 2000."
Gilad's statements led to an immediate boosting of security around Arafat who was confined to safe quarters in his Ramallah complex as Palestinian security officials feared he would become the next Israeli target.
Paz, however, warned that Yassin's demise could have severe repercussions not only in Israel, but will cause reactions throughout the entire Moslem world and lead to attacks against Israelis and Jews abroad.
"We are talking about Moslems in Europe and the United States who identify with the Hamas and its policies, and recruit funds on its behalf," he said. "I believe that the same Hamas supporters abroad will also begin to recruit activists to wage attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets abroad, and we could possibly see elements affiliated with Al Qaeda recruiting activists on behalf of the Hamas.
"The Moslem public is already angry due to policies adopted in countries abroad such as the barring of headscarves in France. One thing they are all united in is their hatred for Israel, and this may well escalate," he said.
"Yassin was considered a national symbol, he was far more moderate and did not rule out Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's disengagement plan. Without a doubt, Sharon initiated the targeted killing, and if he believed that by doing so it would weaken the Hamas's control of the Gaza Strip, he is mistaken," said Paz.
"I can't see anything good coming out of it. I believe in the coming weeks, we will witness an escalation of violence, not just suicide bomb attacks, but attacks carried out by loners who aren't affiliated with any movement but seek revenge," he said.
"It is also possible that Yassin's death will lead to a further strengthening of ties between the Fatah's Al Aksa Brigades, Islamic Jihad and Hamas who have launched a number of joint attacks in the past and may well decide to continue," he said.
Yassin the founder of Hamas and its political and religious leader gained strength as PA Yasser Arafat's position weakened, turning him into the national symbolic leader not just of the Hamas but of the entire Palestinian public and among supporters in Arab countries abroad, said Paz adding, "and now the entire Moslem world."
Dr. Boaz Ginor, ICT's executive director at the interdisciplinary institute believes that the strike on Yassin will not affect the movement's capability, which is already severely restricted. "Last September in the botched attempt on his life, one would have expected to have seen a shattering response," he said.
Yassin presided over the movement's charity and social infrastructure and issued instructions and political directives, all separate to the military operations carried out by the Hamas, said Ginor. While sharing Paz's assessment that attempts will be made to launch attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets abroad, Ginor said, "we may see a rise in attempts to launch mega-terror attacks and attempts by cell leaders in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip to launch attacks.
"But I believe we will see a sharp increase in attempts by loners, those who are not sent by anyone but decide to act on their own," he said. "However without a doubt authorities should remain alert and vigilant ,particularly regarding the possibility of attacks abroad," he added.
While Israel will be condemned for its actions, Yassin was not a halachic Islamic leader and not considered one among Arab countries abroad. "He was unable to issue fatwas (religious rulings), and the attitude of many Arab countries towards the Palestinian Israeli conflict is lip talk, no more no less," he said.
According to Gilad, the former Coordinater of Government Activities in the Territories, the attack on Yassin will make remaining Hamas officials more aware that they are targets. Claims that Yassin was the group's spiritual leader are ridiculous, he said adding, "there is no separation between the Hamas spiritual and operational leadership.
The attacks carried out by the movement were carefully planned operations. Reality could have been different, said Gilad, had the Palestinian security forces combated terror. "The Palestinian Authority maintains tactical superiority, all that is lacking is a decision to crackdown on terror," he said.
Paz believes that Yassin's death will not hamper Hamas capability, as he was not of the movement's operational military activities but rather dictated policy and gave instructions. "In the past three and a half years we have wiped out all of the Hamas military leaders, and where are we today, in the same position," he said.
According to Paz, Yassin's demise could mark the end of Ahmed Querie's career as Palestinian prime minister, and he will drop by the wayside, the same as his predecessor Abu Mazen. "While there has not been much of a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, there has been some activity in the background. Now Abu Mazen cannot allow himself to enter any dialogue: support for the Hamas will increase greatly and, at the same time, the Palestinian Authority will lose its power.
"I also fear for Mohammed Dahlan's career," Paz continued. "He is someone who is perceived as trying to protect Israel rather then the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip."
Dr. Abdel Aziz Rantissi is the most likely candidate to be chosen as Yassin's successor, said Paz adding that Mahmoud A- Zaher is also an option.. "Yassin was far less extreme in his beliefs than Rantissi, who takes every opportunity to express them.
Yassin founded the movement's social infrastructure, giving charity, medical and financial assistance to the public. I believe we will see a collective leadership taking over until elections," said Paz.
Unlike Paz, Ginor believes that Arafat's position will only strengthen with Yassin's death, who has no real successor. "Yassin was not part of the movement's military operational activities but was an ideological and political leader," Ginor said. "I cannot think of anyone who can replace him as a spiritual leader; he never appointed a deputy," he added.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1079929448127


Syria: Yassin's killing a grave escalation
DAMASCUS, Syria, March 22 (UPI) -- Syrian President Bashar Assad Monday said Israel's killing of Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmad Yassin is a "grave escalation" of the region's volatile situation.
An Israeli airstrike killed Yassin as he was leaving a mosque in Gaza City early Monday morning.
The Syrian News Agency quoted Assad's spokesman as saying "the ugly crime is part of the spate of killings and destruction committed by Israel against the Palestinian people and it is a grave escalation of the situation."
He added: "Israel's policy of mass killing is a flagrant violation of international law which should condemned by the international community, which also must put an end to it."
Copyright 2004 by United Press International.
All rights reserved.




Nuclear reactor workers claim damages for cancer
By YAAKOV KATZ
Some 17 nuclear reactor workers, together with families of workers who died of cancer, petitioned the High Court of Justice on Sunday as part of a long compensation battle against the state.
The workers, from the nuclear reactors in Dimona and Nahal Sorek, claim that the state is using a forbidden rule of law and doing everything possible to prevent them from receiving compensation for illnesses incurred from their work at the facilities.
The state has until now refused to compensate the petitioners by using statute of limitations arguments to reject the claims. According to the state, the petitioners should have submitted their claims years ago, and complaints are now outdated.
The compensation claims, says attorney Ilan Kaner, who is representing the petitioners, "relate to cancer the workers at the nuclear facility incurred as a result of their work at the reactors."
Kaner says that his clients weren't able to file petitions years ago since the administration at the nuclear reactors hid information regarding the worker's illnesses.
"Today I have become privy to documents that show the administration knew I had cancer but decided to hide that information from me," Avraham Benbenishti, who worked 30 years at the Dimona facility told The Jerusalem Post. "I got cancer for the first time in 1972 and for the second time in 1987. In 1969 they saw I had a medical problem following blood tests I took, but did not tell me."
Benbenishti says that his cancer is medically proven to be connected to his work at the reactor. "They found uranium in my blood," he said. " I could have died and they wouldn't have cared or done anything about it."
The legal argument, being raised by the state, according to Kaner, "is improper" since there exists an order by the attorney general from the 1950's, according to which the state cannot claim a statute of limitations.
"We are asking the court to dismiss the defense argument, since there are other cases people want to submit," Kaner said. "The state's motive is to prevent the truth from coming out, partially because of the secrecy surrounding the reactor and the financial aspect involved."
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1079929447493


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Sunday, 21 March 2004



>> OUR ISRAELI FRIENDS...

Arms to Iran: Detente or treason?
By ARIEH O'SULLIVAN
The fact that Israeli arms dealers could be suspected of selling weapons parts to Iran at first seems not only incredible but treasonous.
The fact that the pair being investigated has been investigated repeatedly in the past raises questions about the seeming two-faced character of the dubious world of arms trading, particularly when it comes to Iran.
Illicit Israeli military sales to the staunchly anti-Zionist Shi'ite state which is aggressively seeking nuclear weapons are hardly a new phenomenon.
"Life is complicated. Israel, like the US, has a complex policy vis- -vis Iran. There is a certain amount of flexibility," said Dr. Gerald Steinberg of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, and an expert on the arms industry, without referring specifically to Eli Cohen and Avihai Weinstein.
Clandestine contacts have served Israel's intelligence if not strategic interests for decades, said Aharon Kleiman, a Tel Aviv University professor of political science and author of Israel's Global Reach: Arms Sales as Diplomacy.
Steinberg noted that in the past arms sales, beyond being lucrative, also served to forge diplomatic ties. India was a case in point. "But after so many connections with Iran, one wonders if you can make that argument today," Steinberg said.
"Still, Israel is trying to preserve options in working with the Iranian government and individuals who are pragmatic and open doors, rather than have an ideological approach which says there is nothing to talk about with Iran," Steinberg said.
The policy is that Iran is a threat, not an enemy, he explained.
In the past, for example, Israel continued to illicitly sell parts for Phantom jets to Iran even after Ayatollah Khomeini came to power in 1979.
At the time, the revolution caught the West, particularly the US, off guard.
But because of Israel's close ties with the Iranian military and its operatives there, Israel became a valued intelligence source for the Americans.
For this reason, Israel became a key player in the so-called Iran-Contra affair, or "Irangate," in the mid 1980s. Then US national security council staffer Col. Oliver North took the fall for arranging Israeli arms dealers connected to the Israeli government to supply Iran with over 1,000 LAW anti-tank missiles and parts to Hawk anti-aircraft batteries in a deal worth $100 million. The proceeds of this trade were then funneled into the coffers of the Contra rebels in Nicaragua.
Meanwhile, the US and Israel tried to leverage these sales by asking Iran to pressure Shi'ite groups in Lebanon to release Western hostages.
According to reports, much of the arms trading was conducted through a private Israeli company called International Desalination Equipment, Ltd., then run by Ya'acov Nimrodi, who from the 1950s until the shah of Iran was overthrown in 1979, was Israel's military attache in Teheran. Nimrodi was often aided and counseled by then-prime minister Shimon Peres's adviser on counterterrorism, Amiram Nir, the first husband of Judy Nir-Moses who is today married to Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom.
Nir, who also had close connections with North, later died in a mysterious plane crash in Mexico.
Conversely, Nahum Manbar sold arms to Iran with the knowledge and even blessing of the defense establishment, who were hoping it would lead to information on missing airman Lt.-Col. Ron Arad, downed over Lebanon in 1986.
Manbar is currently serving a 16-year sentence for attempting to sell Iran materials to produce mustard and nerve gas.
"If one wanted to make an argument in favor of arms sales to Iran, they would say we are very guarded in what we sell and nothing that poses a direct threat to Israel would be tolerated," said Kleiman.
"The defense establishment says nobody can move nuts and bolts without their approval, but on the other hand there is a laxity in the murky world of arms dealing it's hard to keep track of." There are some 2,000 weapons dealers, but they are not required to report on their activities. The Defense Ministry refuses to make them public for security and business reasons.
Ironically, the Defense Ministry promised the previous Knesset to crack down on weapons dealers after two men, none other than Cohen and Weinstein, were arrested on suspicion of selling spare parts for APCs to Iran.
Police said that Cohen had his arms license revoked in 1994. Defense Ministry spokeswoman Rachel Naidek-Ashkenazi said that both Cohen and Weinstein do not currently hold any defense license.
Despite this, they were caught allegedly selling arms or spare parts to the Iranians in complex deals that pass through Europe and the Far East, which proves one does not need a license to remain in the arms business.
"This is one of the first scandals we have heard in a number of years. There has been some tightening, but one never knows how much winking is going on," Steinberg said.

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Agents probe where Madrid bombs were made
By ANDREW SELSKY
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER
Members of Madrid's Kurdish community, left, hold up their flag to express their solidarity with the 202 victims of the Madrid train bombings at Atocha train station in the Spanish capital Sunday March 21, 2004. Spanish authorities believe al-Qaida carried out the attack March 11 to avenge Spain's participation in coalition forces in Iraq. (AP Photo/Denis Doyle)
MADRID, Spain -- Investigators searched Sunday for the place used to assemble the backpack bombs that blew apart four train cars during morning rush hour earlier this month, killing 202 people and wounding more than 1,400.
Spain still grieves after the March 11 attacks. Thousands of people, including Madrid Mayor Alberto Ruiz-Gallardon, crowded the platform of El Pozo train station - where one train was bombed - for a funeral Mass.
The Rev. Jose Manuel Peco urged mourners to "reflect upon what we are going through, and reflect upon our capacity for forgiveness and reconciliation," the news agency Efe reported.
With seven Moroccans, two Indians and a Spaniard in custody, investigators focused on where the bombs were assembled. An estimated 220 pounds of explosives were used for the bombs, which were stuffed into bags and detonated by cell phones.
Ten bombs exploded, and four others failed to detonate. One was taken apart and provided clues that led police to suspects.
"We're now looking for the place where the bombs were put together," an Interior Ministry spokesman, who identified himself only as Jose Antonio, told The Associated Press.
The attacks, three days for national elections, also shook Europe. Spy chiefs from France, Britain, Germany, Italy and Spain planned to meet in Madrid on Monday to review the attacks and discuss improving cross-border cooperation.
Spanish Prime Minister-designate Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero called for "much greater cooperation between intelligence services."
In an interview published Sunday in the daily newspaper El Pais, Zapatero also said "the focal points that produce fanaticism and violence" must be addressed, and ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was "absolutely necessary."
He repeated that Spain's 1,300 troops in Iraq would be withdrawn by June 30 unless the United Nations takes control of Iraq's occupation. Asked if he thought whether the U.N. could meet Spain's deadline, Zapatero responded, "My impression is yes."
Suspicion for the Madrid bombings has centered on a Moroccan extremist group said to be linked to al-Qaida, which carried out the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States.
In a videotape, a man claiming to speak on behalf of al-Qaida said the group carried out the attack in reprisal for Spain's backing of the U.S.-led war in Iraq.
Five suspects - three Moroccans and two Indians - arrested March 13 are in prison following court appearances last week. They can be kept jailed for up to two years while investigators gather evidence.
The Moroccans included Jamal Zougam, who has been linked by court documents to members of an al-Qaida cell in Spain.
Five other suspects - four Moroccans and a Spaniard - were arrested Thursday. They include Mohamed El Hadi Chedadi, the brother of Said Chedadi, an alleged al-Qaida operative arrested in 2001.
The Spaniard, a former miner, reportedly is suspected of helping the Moroccans steal dynamite used in the Madrid bombings from an explosives warehouse at a mine. The second group of five is due to appear in the National Court this week.
Many Spaniards have accused Spain's outgoing conservative government of provoking the bombings by supporting the Iraq war. The ruling Popular Party fell in a surprise defeat in general elections on March 14 to Zapatero's Socialist party which, along with a majority of Spaniards, opposed the Iraq war.
----------------------------------------------------
Kerry to study Bush aide's critical book
By MIKE GLOVER
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., chats with people outside the chalet at Sun Valley in Ketchum, Idaho Saturday, March 20, 2004. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)
KETCHUM, Idaho -- Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry said Sunday he has asked for copies of a new book in which a former White House counterterrorism coordinator accuses the Bush administration of manipulating America into war with Iraq with dangerous consequences.
Kerry, a critic of Bush's handling of the war, said he wants to study the charges by Richard A. Clarke.
"Several chapters are being FedExed out to me here," Kerry said before returning to the ski slopes of nearby Sun Valley. "I would like to read them before I make any comment at all. I have asked for them and they should be out here tomorrow."
In the book, Clarke writes that Bush and his Cabinet failed to recognize the al-Qaida threat before Sept. 11, 2001 because they were preoccupied with some of the same Cold War issues that had faced his father's administration
While Kerry was reserved in his comments, campaign aides have been raising the issue with journalists traveling with the presumptive Democratic nominee, leaving little doubt that Kerry eventually will speak on the issue.
Kerry is vacationing at his Ketchum, Idaho, home through Wednesday. He plans to return to the campaign trail Thursday with a Democratic fund-raiser in Washington.
The Massachusetts senator attended church Sunday before returning to the slopes for another day in the pristine mountain region, although occasional tensions flared between his campaign staff and the traveling press corps.
Kerry is an ardent outdoor sports enthusiast who is fond of snowboarding, mountain climbing and skiing - the more challenging the terrain, the better. But since most of the venues he uses are open to the public, reporters routinely join him on the slopes and are there to witness and film his inevitable tumbles on the slopes.
Campaign officials have complained that Kerry is being forced to ski on camera when all he really wants is some rest and relaxation, and to have some fun. On Sunday, they asked news photographers to let Kerry have the mountain slopes to ski in peace.

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Delivery Delays Hurt U.S. Effort to Equip Iraqis
By THOM SHANKER and ERIC SCHMITT
BAGHDAD, Iraq, March 21 -- Senior American commanders in Iraq are publicly complaining that delays in delivering radios, body armor and other equipment have hobbled their ability to build an effective Iraqi security force that can ultimately replace United States troops here.
The lag in supplying the equipment, because of a contract dispute, may even have contributed to a loss of lives among Iraqi recruits, commanders say. A spokesman for the company that was awarded the original contract said much of the equipment had already been produced and was waiting to be shipped to Iraq.
The frustration had been voiced privately up the chain of command by a number of officers, and broke into public debate in recent days. Training and equipping more than 200,000 Iraqi security forces has been one of the top stated priorities of the Bush administration.
Maj. Gen. Charles H. Swannack Jr., commander of the 82nd Airborne Division, praised the work of Iraqi security forces helping to secure his area of control in western Iraq, which includes the dangerous region around Falluja and the Syrian border. But he said the effort had faltered because of a lack of combat gear for the police, border units and the new Iraqi Civil Defense Corps.
"Not only are the security forces bravely leading the fight against terrorists, they are in some cases insisting on doing it alone," General Swannack said 11 days ago. "They want to defeat these enemies of a new and free Iraq. If we had the equipment for these brave young men, we would be much farther along."
He said that in his region of western Iraq, which includes a long stretch of the Syrian border, foreign fighters, their money and weapons were suspected of entering Iraq along smugglers' routes. In this area, he said, "we are still short a significant amount of vehicles, radios and body armor to properly equip" the new Iraqi force.
Commanders in other parts of Iraq have also warned of serious problems. "There are training, organizational and equipment shortfalls in the Iraqi security forces," said Brig. Gen. Carter Ham, the new American commander in northern Iraq. "There's no question about that."
The American military also suffered from shortages of crucial equipment during the war and even into the current phase of stability operations. In particular, soldiers complained of an insufficient supply of the newest bulletproof vests and, when improvised explosives began taking lives, of armored Humvees. Their complaints have been echoed loudly by members of Congress.
But the equipment for America's combat troops and that for Iraqi security services is obtained through separate contracting and procurement processes.
The first batch of equipment for the Iraqis has been paid for and was to have been delivered under a $327 million contract to a small company, Nour USA Ltd., of Vienna, Va. But the Pentagon canceled that deal this month after protests by several competing companies led to a determination that Army procurement officers in Iraq botched the contract. Army officials found no fault with Nour.
Sloppy contract language, staff turnover, incomplete paperwork and stressful combat conditions on the ground led to a badly flawed process, senior Army officials in Washington said. "I've seen things go wrong before, but I've never seen anything like this," said a senior Army official with 28 years' experience in government contracting. "We messed up."
The Army is rushing to seek new bids for the contract, but officials said that could take two to three months. In the meantime, officials are looking to see if they can use other funds and piggyback on existing contracts for weapons and other equipment that federal agencies like the F.B.I. already have to speed the delivery of vital mat?riel to Iraq.
"Part of it is just the magnitude of how much was needed -- thousands of police cars, hundreds of thousands of uniforms," Maj. Gen. Buford C. Blount III, the deputy director of operations for the Army staff in Washington, said in an interview. "It was just a lot harder to get stuff in than we anticipated."
The $327 million contract was to supply several battalions of the new Iraqi security forces with rifles, uniforms, body armor and other equipment. The original contract, awarded in January, did not specify the number of troops to be supplied. Instead it identified specific amounts of equipment -- for instance, 200 trucks and 20,000 compasses. That contract was to be the first of several to equip the Iraqi forces.
A spokesman for Nour USA, Robert R. Hoopes Jr., said the company had protested the Army's cancellation of the contract, saying it could cost $20 million to $30 million in termination cost to the company and its suppliers.
Mr. Hoopes said much of the equipment in the original contract -- including radios, compasses, canteens and body armor -- had already been produced and was sitting in warehouses in the United States and Eastern Europe, waiting to be delivered to Iraq. "The stuff is sitting on the dock, ready to go," Mr. Hoopes said in a telephone interview.
General Swannack took command of his region in September, and the required equipment still has not arrived as he turns over his area to the Marines. To help solve the problem, the general dipped into his commander's discretionary fund, to buy radios, body armor and vehicles for Iraqi security forces.
Other commanders have also spent division financial resources to buy combat equipment already financed by Congress in a supplemental money package for Iraq.
But those expenditures restrict the commanders' ability to spend money on things like rebuilding schools, mosques and hospitals, part of what they view as a critically important effort to stabilize the nation and build rapport with the Iraqis.
American officers in Iraq responsible for local training even go so far as to say the slow delivery of equipment may have contributed to deaths among new Iraqi security forces, who did not have effective protection and could not radio for backup troops, who in any case may not have had the vehicles to speed to assist their colleagues under fire. "Bureaucracy kills," an American military officer in Iraq said.
Other officers in Baghdad who are involved in creating a new Iraqi security architecture, but who discussed the equipment problem on the condition that they not be identified, described a new concern: that they now will be caught between a cycle of famine and feast.
Having gone months awaiting the gear financed by Congress, they fear that they suddenly may be overwhelmed with equipment and money once the bottleneck is cleared, and that it may be difficult to manage the flood of mat?rial rushed to them haphazardly to solve the problem and quiet their complaints.
One American division completing its tour in Iraq was able to avoid those difficulties, simply as a matter of fate.
The First Armored Division, responsible for the security of Baghdad and central Iraq, took control of an area in which a number of military warehouses were situated. Using gear captured from the old Iraqi security forces, division officers were able to equip all seven battalions of the new Iraqi defense corps that they recruited and trained.
Nour USA's president, A. Huda Farouki, is a friend of Ahmad Chalabi, a member of the Iraqi Governing Council who has close ties to several senior Pentagon officials. But Nour executives and senior Army officials say that relationship played no role in awarding the contract to Nour.
Instead, Army officials blamed the small contracting office in Baghdad, which had little experience in handling contracts of this size, for several mistakes.
The language used to describe the required work was "so ambiguous, we just couldn't defend it against the protests," said the senior Army official in Washington. Several important documents related to evaluating competing bids were never written, the official said.
"They were overwhelmed, but that's no excuse for not having done the procurement according to the procurement rules," the Army official said. He said the new contract, which Nour can reapply for, would be handled by seasoned contracting officers in Washington.
Thom Shanker reported from Baghdad for this article and Eric Schmitt from Washington.

Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company |
--------------------------------------------------
Halliburton CEO says firm saves money for Pentagon

By James Cox
USA Today


HOUSTON -- No company is busier in Iraq than Halliburton. And no company in Iraq is as busy battling to clear its name.
The oilfield services and logistics giant holds U.S. government contracts in Iraq and the region valued at $9 billion, tops among private contractors. The company's KBR subsidiary runs the chow lines feeding U.S. troops. KBR washes their laundry, delivers their mail, builds their bases and is bringing in hard-sided containers for them to live in. It provides GIs with showers, latrines and Internet connections. In addition, KBR has supplied Iraq with gasoline and is working with other contractors to fix vital oil facilities there.

All that business has come at a heavy price. Seven employees and 22 others working for the company have been killed or have died in the region. Back home, Halliburton is dogged by accusations it won the Iraq work by cashing in on ties to Vice President Dick Cheney, its chief executive from 1995 to 2000.

Most serious, the company faces allegations it is bilking U.S. taxpayers by overcharging for everything from bath towels passed out to GIs to fuel trucked in from Kuwait. The Justice and Defense departments have launched a criminal investigation into the fuel charges.

Halliburton CEO David Lesar says the Houston-based company is a victim of "political profiteering" by its critics. Careful to avoid naming names, he makes clear his belief that the Democrats are using Halliburton to damage President Bush's re-election chances. Lesar says Halliburton actually saved taxpayers $100 million on fuel for Iraq. Billing discrepancies and other issues have come to light through Halliburton's internal checks or routine government audits, part of a normal oversight process that should be allowed to run its course, he says.

Lesar says billing problems are to be expected. That's because KBR ramped up so fast to handle the military's demands for logistics help and reconstruction work when the war ended. The company's workload in Iraq "went from zero dollars a year ago to $2 billion in the fourth quarter," he says.

Ordinarily, Lesar says, Halliburton would work through any problems with Pentagon auditors and adjust its invoices -- outside of the glare of a presidential campaign. "I'm asking people to sit back and take a deep breath," he says, adding, "Mistakes happen in a war zone. To the military, to everybody. We'll find them and fix them."

A barrage of criticism

Critics aren't willing to wait.

Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, the U.S. commander in Iraq, has written a letter criticizing the company for a variety of shortcomings. Sanchez reportedly faults KBR for failing to tell the military when it will complete new bases for U.S. troops and for falling behind in payments to food subcontractors.

The Pentagon describes the letter as an unsigned "draft" and hasn't made it public. Halliburton says it hasn't seen the letter but wouldn't be surprised. Top commanders frequently communicate with the company "in frank language," it says.

Democratic presidential contender John Kerry has pronounced Halliburton "guilty of shameful war-profiteering." His spokeswoman, Stephanie Cutter, said Tuesday, "George Bush himself opposed pay increases for our troops in combat and gave no-bid contracts in Iraq to Halliburton, who grossly overbilled the U.S. government."

Doonesbury cartoonist Garry Trudeau recently poked fun at the company, depicting it serving up $30 "Halliburgers" to the troops.

The barrage of criticism prompted the company last fall to start running TV ads. One showed employees working with U.S. troops and helping Iraqis rebuild. In another, Lesar refers to Halliburton's association with Cheney: "We're serving the troops because of "what" we know, not "who" we know."

The administration's opponents have succeeded in making Halliburton a campaign issue, one that has Republicans on edge. Bush found himself in the midst of the Halliburton fracas in December when he was asked about allegations the company overcharged for fuel transported from Kuwait. "If there's an overcharge, like we think there is, we expect that money to be repaid," he said.

Lesar insists Bush's comments say more about the supercharged atmosphere of the presidential campaign than about Halliburton. "When the president talks about it, it shows you how high on the political screen this has gotten and how important it is to let the facts catch up with the rhetoric."

Halliburton is accused of:

-- Overcharging by $61 million for fuel. Last spring, U.S. commanders asked KBR to start importing gasoline to Iraq. The Iraqi oil sector was shattered, and there was no electricity to power its refineries. Occupying forces feared Iraqis would riot if they didn't have fuel to cook and drive.

KBR bought fuel and hired subcontractors to deliver it from Turkey and Kuwait. The fuel from Kuwait was delivered for $2.64 a gallon, about $1 a gallon more than fuel delivered from Turkey.

Halliburton's fiercest critic, Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., ranking Democrat on a House committee looking into Iraqi contracts, blasted the company over the price difference. "Millions of Americans want to help Iraqis, but they don't want to be fleeced," he said last fall.

Halliburton says the military initially wanted all the fuel to come from Kuwait but agreed to the company's recommendation to use Turkey as a second source. Commanders rejected the idea of sourcing solely from Turkey where fuel was cheaper: They feared it was too risky to try to keep southern Iraq supplied from such a distance, the company says.

"This wasn't an issue of months of lead time," Lesar says. "It was, "get fuel in there now.' "

The Army Corps of Engineers waived some requirements so KBR could get fuel moving faster from Kuwait to Iraq. But the Kuwaiti government effectively limited KBR to two suppliers by refusing to authorize any other company to load fuel trucks at state-owned oil facilities, the company says.

This week, the military awarded fuel-delivery contracts to Halliburton's two Kuwaiti subcontractors, who agreed to cut prices and deliver to Iraq for $1.50 a gallon. Halliburton is not a party to the deal.

* Overcharging for meals. KBR has suspended billing or collection for $176 million in food service as a result of allegations that its subcontractors charged for hundreds of thousands of meals they never served to U.S. troops.

KBR and Pentagon auditors are trying to figure out who actually came to dinner, particularly in Kuwait during the run-up to war and then in Iraq during the first months after fighting stopped.

Lesar says Halliburton is checking the "boots through the door" count against the number of meals the company and subcontractors prepared invoices for.

KBR's job was to make sure meals were ready. But in some cases, Lesar says, battlefield priorities prevented the GIs from keeping their reservations. "It's hard to guess who's coming to dinner in a war zone," he says.

* Lacking cost controls. Iraq contracts are awarded on a "cost-plus" basis: Contractors bill the government for the cost of work, then tack on a percentage that is their profit. The more expensive the job, the bigger the profit.

Critics say cost-plus contracts encourage wasteful spending. And Halliburton has been forced to defend a number of its expenditures. One example: It supplied GIs in Iraq with towels bearing its logo -- at $3 apiece -- rather than pass out cheaper white ones.

The reason, Lesar says: Logos make it possible to identify towels in the laundry and prevent soldiers from pilfering them. "In the end, it's absolutely cheaper" than replacing stolen towels, he says.

Wednesday, the Pentagon said it will withhold 15 percent from payments to Halliburton under its contract until the company resolves billing issues. Tansill Johnson, spokeswoman for the U.S. Army Materiel Command, says the decision was "routine" and "not a penalty at all." Halliburton officials, surprised by the move, say they are ahead of the schedule, agreed upon with Pentagon auditors, to answer pricing and accounting questions.

Even so, the announcement was more ammunition for Waxman, who faults Halliburton for sloppy accounting and says its cost estimates are riddled with "significant and systemic" deficiencies.

Halliburton counters that its critics are judging it by preliminary estimates rather than final ones and that circumstances in Iraq change so fast that precise estimates often aren't possible. It says it has moved to strengthen its accounting and controls.

* Trading on its Cheney ties to win Iraq contracts. Waxman has accused the Pentagon of awarding contracts to Halliburton without fair competition. It gave the company a "secret, no-bid contract" to repair critical oil facilities in Iraq and expanded its existing agreement with the U.S. Army for logistical support, he has said.

Kerry and other Democrats say the Bush administration is doling out billions in Iraq business to cronies and corporate campaign givers, such as Halliburton, while leaving U.S. troops short of body armor, armored Humvees and advanced helicopter missile systems.

Logistics expertise

Despite all the criticism, Halliburton was a logical choice for Iraq. It is the military's main logistics supplier around the world, working side by side with U.S. troops in the Balkans, Somalia, Rwanda, the Middle East and Central Asia. It also is among global leaders in oilfield services. The company insists it did not call in any favors from Cheney to win business in Iraq.

Last week, Defense officials and others involved in the contracting process told the House Committee on Government Reform they had no contact with Cheney or his office about the contracts. Cheney and his aides played no role in the contract awards, they said.

Wall Street has largely ignored the allegations against Halliburton and focused instead on the company's plan to settle asbestos claims that threatened to ruin it. Halliburton's share price, devastated by asbestos litigation in 2001, has bounced back as the company has moved to collect from insurers.

Several Wall Street analysts predict the company will outperform others in the oilfield services sector. Halliburton share price hit a 52-week high in February before falling on concerns that it might suffer a cash crunch as a result of probes into its Iraq work.

Halliburton isn't the only contractor in Iraq getting scrutiny. Fluor, Perini and Washington Group International are among others facing "substantial subcontracting pricing issues," Pentagon comptroller Dov Zakheim told a House hearing last week. "Halliburton's performance in Iraq has not been perfect, but it has not been terrible," Zakheim said.

----------------------------------------------------
Suicide victim's blood to be tested for narcotics, anti-malaria drug
Associated Press
COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. -- Defense Department researchers have requested blood samples from a Fort Carson, Colo., Green Beret who killed himself three weeks after returning from Iraq.
The blood of Army Chief Warrant Officer William Howell will be screened for narcotics and Lariam, an anti-malaria drug that can cause psychiatric symptoms.
Howell took Lariam, said Maj. Robert Gowan, spokesman for the Special Forces.
Howell, 36, shot himself to death in a confrontation with police Sunday night outside his home in Monument, just north of Colorado Springs. He had recently returned home from 10 months in Iraq.
The Armed Forces Institute of Pathology will screen the blood, spokesman Chris Kelly said. The malaria drug mefloquine, whose product name is Lariam, is being tracked because "it's become an area of concern," he said.
The tests will become part of the military's ongoing analysis of active-duty deaths.
Howell's death has prompted questions about the Army's post-combat screening of soldiers and the use of the drug Lariam.
The drug can cause such symptoms as anxiety, paranoia, depression, hallucinations and psychotic behavior, according to warnings from its manufacturer, Roche Pharmaceuticals.
Roche cautions against prescribing Lariam for those with depression, a recent history of depression, anxiety disorder or other major psychiatric problems. It also warns symptoms can occur "long after" a person stops taking the drug.
An autopsy showed Howell had a blood-alcohol level above 0.10 percent, the legal limit for driving.
His wife, Laura Howell, called his death "an unforeseen tragedy." She praised the military for the support and care she has received.
Their children are 13, 10, 20 months and six months.
"He loved to spend time with his kids," she said. "He was compassionate, passionate. He didn't do anything halfway."

Copyright 2003 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.


Posted by maximpost at 11:54 PM EST
Permalink






>> HUGGING PERVEZ 3...


War on Islamic militants is a stunt, say Pakistan tribal leaders
By Peter Foster in Peshawar
(Filed: 22/03/2004)
A new offensive against Islamic militants living in the lawless tribal areas of Pakistan was dismissed by tribal leaders yesterday as a stunt aimed at "appeasing America".
Amid growing anger at mounting civilian casualties, tribal elders in Wana, the scene of the fighting, called a jirga - tribal council - to demand a ceasefire from Pakistan government troops. At least 13 civilians have now died in fierce fighting which erupted around the outpost town in South Waziristan last Tuesday. Unconfirmed reports said a further eight died yesterday.
Last week official Pakistan sources, apparently backed up by the president, General Pervaiz Musharraf, said they believed the al-Qa'eda second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, might be trapped in the hills above Wana. However, officials backtracked from this position yesterday, saying it was more likely that fighters were protecting "criminals" or that the "high value al-Qa'eda target" was, in fact, an Uzbek militant leader.
This admission has only fuelled speculation that the attacks around Wana were intended to demonstrate Pakistan's commitment to the war on terrorism at a time when the US has been pressing the country to take firmer action against militants. The Pakistan military announced yesterday that it had arrested up to 100 "foreign militants".
Maulan Khalil-ur-Rehman, a tribal leader who is also a member of parliament, expressed the bitterness felt by the tribes.
"These 'foreign fighters' living in Wana were heroes of Islam when they were fighting the Soviets, but now we are told by Musharraf and America they are terrorists," he said at a demonstration in Peshawar. Crowds of demonstrators across Waziristan yesterday demanded that local politicians expel the troops from the area.
Although described as "foreign", many of those arrested, including Uzbeks, Chechens and Arabs, have lived in the region for years, marrying into local communities and speaking the local Pathan dialect.
The ferocity of the army's assault on the hills outside Wana is also partly explained by the fact that 19 paramilitaries and two officials were taken hostage in the disastrous initial assault last week. Yesterday government officials issued a two-day ultimatum to release the captives.
The government forces are also locked in a battle of political wills with the Yargul Khel clan, a warlike group who have ignored all requests to hand over "foreign militants".
Yesterday elders from Wana were dispatched to request the release of the hostages, but early reports suggested they had failed.
In the town itself, local sources reported light fighting throughout the day, but that eight road workers were killed when an army helicopter attacked them.

? Copyright of Telegraph Group Limited 2004.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Al-Zawahri Says Al Qaeda Has Nuke Bombs -Biographer
Sun Mar 21, 2004 09:25 PM ET
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Al Qaeda's second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahri claims the militant Islamic organization has bought briefcase nuclear bombs on the central Asian black market, according to Osama bin Laden's biographer.
Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir has told an Australian Broadcasting Corporation television program, to be aired on Monday night, that when he interviewed Osama bin Laden and al-Zawahri in 2001 he asked whether al Qaeda had nuclear weapons.
Mir said al-Zawahri laughed and said: "Mr Mir, if you have US$30 million, go to the black market in central Asia, contact any disgruntled Soviet scientist and a lot of dozens of smart briefcase bombs are available.
"They have contacted us, we sent our people to Moscow, to Tashkent, to other central Asian states and they negotiated and we purchased some suitcase bombs," Mir quoted al-Zawarhi on the ABC program "Enough Rope," recorded last Monday from Islamabad.
The Egyptian al-Zawahri, a doctor, is regarded as the brains of al Qaeda and a key figure behind the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States.
Al Qaeda is suspected of having an interest in acquiring weapons of mass destruction, whether nuclear, biological or chemical, but no evidence of a program was found in searches of its bases after the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Security experts say it is highly unlikely that bin Laden and his al Qaeda network have got anywhere close to acquiring nuclear weapon technology, but they do not rule it out.
Experts have long said it might be easier for al Qaeda to create a dirty bomb -- a cocktail of non-fissile material and explosives capable of creating damage -- but that would spread radioactivity over only a limited area.

? Copyright Reuters 2004. All rights reserved.

----------------------------------------------------

Left and Right poll upset for Chirac
By Philip Delves Broughton in Paris
(Filed: 22/03/2004)
President Jacques Chirac was reprimanded by voters last night as his party was trounced in the first round of French regional elections in which the extreme Right Front National demonstrated its growing popularity.
The Front National made advances in its traditional heartlands, the croissant shape of regions arcing from Marseilles in the south, up along the east of France and round towards Calais. These are the regions most affected by immigration.
Front National candidate Marine Le Pen votes in Paris
According to exit polls, the Left, represented by the Socialists, Communists and Greens, won around 40 per cent. The Right, led by the president's Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (UMP), won around 35 per cent. The Front National won just over 17 per cent.
Polls have shown growing dissatisfaction with the government's attempts at economic reform. Unemployment remains high, the unions have objected consistently to pension reforms and job cuts in the public sector, and most recently France's intellectuals have accused the government of being philistine.
The Front National's results will guarantee that its candidates stay in the race for next week's second round of voting. The party's voters will then have to decide whether or not to stick with the Front, or throw their votes to either of the main Left and Right parties.
Jean-Marie Le Pen, the Front's leader, said last night's results were "even better" than those of the presidential election in 2002, when he succeeded in knocking the Socialists out in the first round of voting.
Both the Socialists and the UMP have ruled out cutting any deals with M Le Pen in order to secure majorities. The Socialists' leader, Francois Hollande, said the election results sent a "serious warning" to the government.

? Copyright of Telegraph Group Limited 2004
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Chirac sinks deeper into mire of scandal
By Philip Delves Broughton in Paris
(Filed: 02/02/2004)

President Jacques Chirac was fighting last night to regain control of a fast unravelling scandal encircling his political power base.
M Chirac seized charge of an inquiry into alleged telephone taps, break-ins and violent threats against judges investigating Alain Jupp?, the former prime minister and his heir apparent, convicted on Friday of organising illegal party funding.
M Chirac: changed the law to protect him while in office
The extraordinary intervention came the day after the justice ministry announced it would investigate the allegations.
His gazumping of his own ministry indicates the seriousness with which he is taking the insinuation that he or his allies tried to pressure the judges in the Jupp? case.
A statement issued by the prime minister's office said M Chirac had asked for three of the most senior judges in Paris to oversee the investigation and report to him in a month. "If these allegations are proved, they will be extremely serious," said the statement.
It is the first time M Chirac has launched such an inquiry, despite similar allegations over many years from magistrates investigating his colourful political past.
Jupp? and 21 of M Chirac's former aides and business partners were convicted in relation to the funding of M Chirac's RPR party during the late 1980s and early 1990s.
In a tough ruling, Judge Catherine Pierce effectively ended Jupp?'s political career by banning him from public office for 10 years and handing him an 18-month suspended prison sentence.
Jupp?'s conviction has outraged M Chirac and his supporters and provoked open warfare between France's supposedly independent judiciary and the politicians who find it meddlesome.
Bernadette Chirac, the president's wife, challenged the court's findings at the weekend by calling Jupp? "a statesman of great stature and an honest man".
Others close to the president have sought to cast doubt on the judge's motives, anonymously accusing her in newspapers of envy and political malice. They are saying her ruling will be overturned on appeal.
Jupp? and M Chirac share a relationship similar in nature to that between Peter Mandelson and Tony Blair.
For nearly 30 years, Jupp? has been the tactician and organiser for the more personable M Chirac. He was described by his mentor as "the most brilliant man of his generation" and "the best among us".
Judge Pierce, 54, has hit back at the president's supporters by describing the sinister pressures placed on her and her two fellow judges in the Jupp? case.
She told Le Parisien newspaper that her office had been broken into, her home and office telephones tapped, her computer files rifled and that she received a death threat before Jupp?'s sentencing.
"Lots of people wanted to know our decision," she said. In one incident she arrived at work to find the false ceiling in her office had been pulled down. A maintenance worker said the door to the next office was jammed and he was trying to get through the gap in the ceiling.
Judge Pierce was sceptical and began keeping notes on a personal computer rather than the office system, which she suspected was being accessed by outside parties. All of the judges suspected their telephones were tapped. One complained of strange time delays during his conversations, another of strangers' voices in the background.
The allegations lend a murky aura to a long legal process which has bedevilled M Chirac and his entourage. They are also consistent with complaints by other judges who have threatened the highest levels of the establishment.
Eric Halphen, a magistrate who spent seven years investigating alleged kickbacks paid to M Chirac's staff for building contracts while he was mayor of Paris, left the legal profession in 2002 and wrote a book describing what he endured. He said threatening notes were left on his windscreen and his telephone was tapped.
M Halphen summoned the president as a witness in the case, but after months of delay M Chirac succeeded in having the law on presidential immunity changed to protect him from legal suits while in office.
Several other cases against M Chirac remain in legal limbo because of his immunity. These include charges that he fiddled his grocery bill at the Paris town hall.
How else, magistrates have asked, could he have spent ?1.5 million in eight years simply to feed himself and his wife? And why was nearly ?1 million of that settled in cash?
M Chirac has also been implicated in the case which brought down Jupp?, involving the use of Paris town hall money to pay salaries to party employees.
Jupp? told friends that if he was convicted he would leave politics altogether so that he could retain his integrity in the "eyes of Clara", his daughter.
He is currently mayor of Bordeaux, a member of parliament and president of M Chirac's ruling party, the Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (UM). He has lodged an appeal, which could take another year to be heard.

30 September 2003: Chirac feels the heat as ally faces corruption trial


? Copyright of Telegraph Group Limited 2004
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>> OUR FRIENDS THE SAUDIS...

Saudi Arabia Criticizes U.S. Reform Plans
Sun Mar 21, 2004 10:10 AM ET
RIYADH (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal criticized U.S.-led calls for reform in the Middle East on Sunday and said Arab countries could tackle their problems by themselves.
He was speaking just two days after talks in Riyadh with Secretary of State Colin Powell.
The U.S. proposals "include clear accusations against the Arab people and their governments that they are ignorant of their own affairs," the official Saudi Press Agency quoted the prince as saying in the Yemeni capital Sanaa.
"Those behind these plans ignore the fact that our Arab people have cultures rooted deep in history and that we are able to handle our own affairs," he said.
Powell's visit to Riyadh was overshadowed by Washington's criticism of the arrest of at least 10 pro-reform activists in Saudi Arabia.
The United States is eager to promote reform in the Middle East and has encouraged its long-standing ally, the world's biggest oil producer, to speed up change since the September 11 attacks which were carried out by mainly Saudi hijackers.
Washington believes lack of democracy in Arab states has helped fuel Islamic militancy. Arab leaders meet in Tunis later this month seeking a common response to the U.S. plans, dubbed the "Greater Middle East Initiative."
Saudi Arabia has already promised municipal elections later this year, but the conservative Muslim kingdom says its cautious program of political change will not be influenced by outside pressure.
Last week it rejected U.S. criticism of its arrest of the reformists, saying the detentions were an internal affair. Several of the detainees have been released.
Prince Saud said calls for Arabs to join the modern world were being made "as if for all these years we had not been doing anything and had just been waiting for direction from outside."
He said any foreign help should be concentrated toward settling the Palestinian-Israel conflict and a "genuine economic partnership" with the Arab world.

? Copyright Reuters 2004. All rights reserved.
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SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER
Sunday, March 21, 2004 ? Last updated 11:08 a.m. PT
Seven of 13 Saudis detained are released
By DONNA ABU-NASR
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- Seven of 13 Saudi reformists arrested in a crackdown on dissent that brought condemnation from Washington have been released, activists said Sunday.
One of those released, Najib al-Khunaizi, said they first had to pledge in writing not to petition for reform of the Saudi system or talk to reporters.
The professors, lawyers and writers, who were detained last week in several Saudi cities, had - in newspaper articles and television appearances - criticized the kingdom's strict religious environment and slow pace of reform.
The Saudi government began a cautious move toward reform after the Sept. 11 attacks carried out by 19 Arab hijackers, 15 of them Saudi.
While it has encouraged debate and allowed newspapers more freedom to criticize, the arrests indicate the regime sees the reformists as a threat.
"Those guys who were detained and the ideas they represent have made a lot of waves, sparking a lot of debate," said Ibrahim al-Mugaiteeb, head of Human Rights First, an independent group.
"The government was afraid the debate would not remain a debate in the papers," he added.
Some had signed a recent letter to Crown Prince Abdullah calling for a speedy introduction of political, economic and social reform, including elections of the Consultative Council, which acts as a parliament and is appointed by the king.
Others had demanded the absolute monarchy become a constitutional monarchy and that Saudi Arabia review its relations with the United States.
And some criticized the new, National Human Rights Association, whose members also are appointed by the king.
U.S. State Department spokesman Adam Ereli condemned the detentions last week as "inconsistent with the kind of forward progress that reform-minded people are looking for."
Angered by what it saw as U.S. interference in an internal matter, the Saudi Foreign Ministry responded by issuing a statement saying it was "disappointed" by the U.S. reaction to the arrests.
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell expressed concern over the detentions during a meeting with Crown Prince Abdullah in Riyadh on Friday.
The Saudi government has accused the men of incitement and of using the names of prominent Saudis in petitions without asking their permission first.
Despite their activities, the men do not carry the kind of importance, political weight or popular base that would have undermined the government.
However, the arrests were seen as a message to other, more influential Saudis whose detentions would have created a stir among the public - such as religious clerics who claim they have shed their extremist past and are pursuing a more moderate course.
Al-Khunaizi, who was arrested Tuesday in the eastern, mostly Shiite city of al-Qatif, said the detainees were treated well and kept in offices or in villas, not in prison cells. "There was no abuse or insults of any kind," he said in a telephone interview.
The detentions were a test of the new, state-sanctioned human rights group. Several of its members refused to comment on the detentions, telling The Associated Press it was too early to do so.
Many Saudi intellectuals and liberals have cast doubt on the association's ability to function as an independent body when many of its members hold government jobs, are former civil servants or close to the government. Its head, Abdullah al-Obeid, is a member of the Consultative Council.
Al-Obeid remained silent on the issue for a few days. In remarks published Saturday, he told Okaz daily that his association will be "following up on this matter with the competent authorities."
Al-Obeid was quoted as saying the association does not know the reasons for the men's arrest, "but the official authorities ... are entitled to arrest anyone for questioning - this matter is legal."
-----------------------------------------

The NHS can't afford to lose able managers who tell the truth
By Barbara Amiel
(Filed: 22/03/2004)
Squish. Kaput. A combination of union bullies and cowardly colleagues managed to get rid of a leading hospital trust administrator last Friday. Since effective hospital trust chairmen are as close to extinction as certain blue butterflies, this is not progress for the NHS - though it is certainly a politically correct moment. Goodbye, Barrie Blower, MBE, chairman of the three-star Walsall hospital trust, who resigned last Friday.
About once a week, we read of a hospital horror. The wrong kidney is removed from some poor bloke, who is left on dialysis for life. A large clamp remains inside a patient after surgery.
Mistakes are made in all sorts of jobs; it's just that, in the world of medicine, the mistake can kill. Most hospital chiefs prefer an administrative Valhalla, where they don't have to answer questions from families of patients. They can issue an anaemic statement apologising for any concern caused. The matter is "under investigation".
Mr Blower appears not to have been like that at all. When Tracey Davies wanted to talk about the death of her mother from lung cancer last December, Mr Blower made himself available. And not just for a 10-minute chat: for three hours.
Later, Mrs Davies, 41, would say: "My mother was terminally ill, and there has never been any question about the nursing staff being negligent, but we felt we needed more information about the time she died." She was not allowed to speak to the nurses who were on duty at the time and Mrs Davies wanted to hear about the last hours of her mum.
Some post-mortem it turned out to be. For Mrs Davies was wired. She secretly recorded her conversation with Mr Blower on a tape recorder, either under her clothes or in a James Bond handbag.
She says that, after getting the run-around from two lower-level hospital managers, she wanted to prevent Mr Blower "going back on anything he said". Fair enough, though that doesn't quite explain why the tape leapt from her hands into those of Carlton Television.
This is what Mr Blower "couldn't take back". In speaking of agency nurses, he said: "It's an awful set-up. We advertise in the Philippines and in India to attract nurses to be attached to the hospital, to try and get rid of these agency people. They kill more people than they bloody save, these do. It's an awful bloody set-up but we've got to have them." Newspaper leaders were apoplectic. Unison, the public service union, called for his resignation.
Mr Blower's remarks were certainly intemperate and reckless and he has apologised fully for them. But was the outrage because those remarks were untrue? Were they ill-informed?
If dependence on agency nurses compromises standards of care, then, even if they don't kill more people than they save, the importance of what he is saying dwarfs any problem of intemperance he exhibited. And we should be grateful that, far from resigning, he had the courage to finger a problem that is potentially a matter of life and death for every one of us.
Walsall Hospital has looked at its records and sees no relationship between complaints and agency nurses. The hospital uses fewer agency nurses than many trusts, and its use of them has been declining. The larger issue remains, though. Agency nurses are the supply teachers of the medical profession. They come in to fill a vacancy. Sometimes they fill in for a shift, sometimes for a couple of days.
A few years ago, when I was a regular patient at a London NHS hospital, the agency nurses would occasionally be assigned to wards in which they had no particular expertise. Some were good. Some were bad. In this, they matched the normal ratio in nursing, or any other job.
But common sense suggests that there is a fundamental difference between the history supply teacher who fills in for a geography class and the paediatric nurse who is assigned to the trauma floor.
Hospitals do their best to fit nurses to the job for which they are qualified. I'm fairly certain no hospital would allow an inexperienced nurse to assist in the operating room or intensive care unit. But a lot of damage can get done in much less dramatic settings.
The best nursing care comes from the nurse who is not only experienced but has some continuity with both patients and hospital. Continuity of care ought to be a high priority.
Agency nurses can have all the training in the world, but they aren't Socrates and Mother Teresa combined. Dropping nurses into constantly new settings is like putting a pupil in a new school each time. They don't get what's going on.
One of my agency nurses was unfamiliar with the idiosyncrasies of the doctor's handwriting and the routine I was on. When there was no senior nurse around to help her, she hooked up another bottle of my unfamiliar and rather viscose infusion at a speed that would have burst my bad veins in short order.
After she had left, I changed the volumetric pump to a slower drip, having learnt that the safest thing in hospital is to learn how to do things for yourself. Easy enough for me, but not so easy for the very ill chap on the same floor who got hooked up to the wrong tube for a nasty few moments.
The nursing profession is in crisis. In the grim old days, women seeking work had fewer choices than they do now. The grim thing today is the working conditions of nurses and so, understandably, fewer women choose to go into the profession.
Health care is crumbling under the costs of our ageing society. The standard market solution - solve shortages by competitive salaries - is not possible. Importing nurses from overseas, which Mr Blower sees as the solution, creates its own problems.
The six-month period of "adaptation" is sometimes more honoured in the breach: language and body language between foreign nurse and British patient are often unsatisfactory.
According to studies, some "English-speaking" nurses speak English all right; they just don't understand local English very well - which may be why the on-line Hindustan Times accused Mr Blower of "racism" when his remarks were quite the opposite.
Some foreign nurses see the request for painkillers as unnecessary, given standards in their homeland or the rather reticent behaviour of the British in pain.
At any rate, the NHS is now short of one skilled manager. Mr and Mrs Davies are said to be distraught that their actions caused this situation. "I haven't slept for three days," says Mrs Davies. We wish her a good night. A lot of patients may lose their sleep for far longer.

Next story: You can probably be sure of Shell


? Copyright of Telegraph Group Limited 2004
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washingtonpost.com
Doomed Hubble's Fans Flood NASA With Ideas
By Guy Gugliotta
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, March 21, 2004; Page A01
BALTIMORE -- One devotee wants to send a "giant clamshell" into space to pluck the telescope from the ether and bring it home. Several others suggest sending it to the moon. Or maybe selling it to Coca-Cola to pay for a rescue. And if all it took were donations or volunteers, the job would probably already be done:
"I am broke . . . but I will send $50.00 right now, if it will help save Hubble," read one message that fluttered in over NASA's Hubblesite Web page a couple of weeks ago. "If you need someone to take a chance riding the shuttle and help fix it, I am your guy. You should know that I am almost 50. Kind of makes me a long-shot candidate."
Two months have elapsed since NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe announced that the agency was canceling the Hubble Space Telescope's fourth space shuttle servicing mission, essentially sentencing the orbiting observatory to death sometime in the next few years.
The news was divulged almost as a by-the-way amid the fanfare accompanying President Bush's new moon-Mars initiative, but it has provoked a level of anguish and outrage that has overwhelmed whatever excitement the administration may have hoped to kindle with proposed new ventures in space.
Hubble's distress touched a national nerve. It has become the people's telescope, its fate of vital interest to everyone from the scientists who use it and minister to its needs to amateur astronomers to breakfast-table enthusiasts who marvel at Hubble's spectacular images.
"Let me get this straight. We are going to take the greatest telescope ever conceived . . . and then we are going to blow it up?" one man wrote on Hubblesite. "Do you people have a clue? . . . The American People own the Hubble. How dare you even consider blowing her up?"
"Within our own Hubble community, we've had nothing but shock and outrage," said Steven Beckwith, director of the Space Telescope Science Institute (STSI) here, which supervises Hubble's observations. "The public outpouring has been extraordinary."
Beckwith said he has received hundreds of e-mails of support and suggestions for saving Hubble. O'Keefe has acknowledged to reporters that his "e-mail system is clogged every day."
Other NASA offices also report a brisk traffic in Hubble mail, and Hubblesite has received thousands of messages, Beckwith said. Institute officials agreed to let The Washington Post quote from the January and February Hubblesite traffic as long as the writers were not identified.
What emerges from this outpouring is an "us-vs.-them" truculence that views the Hubble's demise as collateral damage in what many see as the administration's misguided march to the moon and Mars, an idea opposed by 62 percent of Americans, according to a Jan. 18 Washington Post-ABC News poll.
"Hubble is the only truly useful piece of work NASA has done in years," one man wrote to Hubblesite in January. "Moon-or-Mars-men are . . . a waste of taxpayer money. Do real science. Do Astronomy!"
What has happened, said University of Michigan psychologist Daniel J. Kruger, is that Hubble has become a national treasure. "It doesn't need a publicist, because it speaks for itself," said Kruger, who studies the spread of ideas and culture. "When we have something like the Hubble sacrificed, people want to know, 'What do we get out of this?' We may eventually get to do [the moon and Mars], but at what price?"
The dismay wells up at all levels. At an institute news briefing earlier this month to unveil a Hubble deep space image, the usually circumspect Beckwith suddenly remarked in anguished wonderment that "never in the history of telescopes have we developed an observing capability and given it up."
Scientists and staff at the same meeting broke into cheers and applause when Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski (D-Md.) promised "to stand up for Hubble" and seek reconsideration of O'Keefe's decision. "I believe that the future of Hubble should not be made by one man in a back room," she said.
Later that week, after a mostly cordial encounter with O'Keefe during a Senate hearing, Mikulski said she would ask the National Academy of Sciences to do a "risk-value" study on a space shuttle mission to service the Hubble. When it became apparent that O'Keefe did not share her views, she sent him a letter threatening to continue funding the telescope "until an informed decision" on Hubble's future could be made.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the Capitol, Rep. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) is circulating a proposed resolution calling for a review of O'Keefe's decision and continuation of plans for a servicing mission until Hubble's fate is resolved.
"I didn't know the interest was there, but we're getting hundreds of letters and e-mails," Udall said in a telephone interview. "People are saying, 'Wait a minute, this is penny-wise and pound-foolish. With a little gumption and hard work, we can get the service mission up there.' "
Probably not. Despite the cascade of bad publicity, O'Keefe has remained steadfast in his view that the shuttle will not travel to Hubble unless the mission complies with new safety measures recommended after the space shuttle Columbia disintegrated on reentry last year.
The likelihood that a Hubble mission could comply is virtually nil, O'Keefe said to reporters recently. NASA would have to develop special technologies allowing a shuttle crew to make repairs to the spacecraft without assistance. This might be done, but not in time to get a shuttle to the telescope before its batteries wear out and its gyroscopes spin down.
"Could we [send the shuttle early] and take the risk? Sure," O'Keefe said. "But somebody else will have to make that decision. Not me." Hubble, he acknowledged, "is a real gem of an instrument. But you have to think about reality."
The hope now is that a Feb. 20 "request for information" put out by NASA will elicit fresh thoughts on how an unmanned mission might travel to Hubble and somehow service the telescope.
"There's no shortage of ideas," said Hubble project manager Preston Burch, of the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, in charge of Hubble hardware and servicing. Among the potentially feasible ones are suggestions that a robot spacecraft might grapple Hubble and attach external power packs and gyroscopes to keep it operating.
Not plausible so far, however, is the idea that the shuttle might somehow tow the telescope to the international space station for periodic servicing. This engineering exploit, a favorite on the Internet, would require a change in the inclination and height of Hubble's orbit.
"It would take a tremendous amount of power to do that," Burch said in a telephone interview. "And if you bring it down to the space station, how do you get it back up?"
While these options percolate, Goddard is also working on the grimmer business of prolonging Hubble's life, and eventually pushing the dead telescope into a higher graveyard "parking orbit" or steering it into Earth's atmosphere on a trajectory that would guide its fiery remains to crash into an uninhabited area.
At best, the batteries and gyros will last until about 2008, but Goddard engineers say they may be able to squeeze out an extra year or two by running the telescope on two, or even one, gyroscope, adopting battery-saving measures and, finally, triage.
"You have to have enough battery power to run the equipment at night and have a backup for emergencies," explained David S. Leckrone, Hubble's senior project scientist. "At some point, the batteries will no longer be able to fully charge during the day, and when that happens, we'll have to turn off equipment."
For a public in denial, however, the focus is on cures, not hospice care. "Wouldn't it be easier to robotically go up there with a giant clamshell made from those fancy reentry tiles and just bring it back?" asked one man on Hubblesite in January.
Or have the telescope "contract with Coca-Cola or Pepsi, etc. to pay the Russians to repair HST in return for a small Coke, Pepsi, etc. logo in the corner of each Hubble picture," another message said.
Other correspondents suggested that NASA "put it on eBay," "issue Hubble bonds," "get schoolchildren involved in collecting donations," or "land your telescope on the moon and build abservatorium there."
But above all, "please don't can the Hubble," one fan wrote. "I made Ds in high school science, and a D in college science. Until the Hubble, I thought the only galaxy was the Milky Way."

? 2004 The Washington Post Company
----------------------------------------------------
Decoding the Chatter
Inside the nerve center of America's counterterrorist operations
By TIMOTHY J. BURGER
Most of America is sleeping, but deep within CIA headquarters in northern Virginia, officials pulling overnight duty are scarfing junk food, soft drinks and coffee as they surf mountains of intelligence reports for the latest potential threat to Americans. These are the men and women of the year-old Terrorist Threat Integration Center (TTIC). As they sit at gray, modular workstations equipped with secure computer terminals and phones, their toil is long and arduous but never dull. "It's day right now in half the world, so this shift's pretty fast paced," says an official. "In another hour, it's morning prayers in East Africa. It's morning already in Kabul."
In an unprecedented tour of TTIC's interim quarters as well as the CIA's Counterterrorist Center and the pipeline that leads to the site of President Bush's top-secret daily intelligence briefings, TIME correspondents got an inside look at the nerve center of America's efforts against terrorism. The atmosphere was one of camaraderie mixed with urgency. Asked how often a night goes by without any potentially alarming intelligence reports coming in, an official replies, "I haven't had a night like that. There's always something."
Each day, officials at TTIC (pronounced tee-tic) examine 5,000 to 6,000 pieces of intelligence, trying to assemble the best picture of what's out there. Staffed by representatives of about a dozen government entities, TTIC strives to address the failure of agencies to share vital intelligence before 9/11. "We have an FBI analyst who's sitting next to a CIA analyst who's sitting next to a Secret Service analyst who's sitting next to a Coast Guard analyst," says TTIC chief John Brennan, a senior CIA officer. "They take information from their different systems and say, 'Hey, have you seen this?' or 'Is this something that affects what you're doing now?'"
Brennan insists TTIC doesn't run spy operations inside the U.S., which the CIA is prohibited from doing. But, he says, as TTIC chief he can quickly get the FBI to do so to fill "gaps in our knowledge." The center is helping to monitor "a lot of folks who have acquired U.S. citizenship or green cards that are engaged in international terrorism," says Brennan. A well-placed source says the FBI now keeps tabs on about 400 individuals in the U.S. who are thought to be sympathetic to al-Qaeda or somehow connected to Sunni extremism. The FBI has also tried to co-opt some of them as informants.
Toward midnight, in an interview in a nondescript office in the Counterterrorist Center, a senior official describes a mission that is much closer to the Hollywood image of spy work: intense, often risky covert action against terrorists abroad. "Our job is to capture them and kill them," the official says. That means, he explains, taking action "at the direction of the President, by formal decree, clandestinely. Sometimes you're acting at his direction to change the world."
But even at the Counterterrorist Center, the official notes, much of the work is "so goddam nitty-gritty it'll turn your mind numb." Some of the best intelligence comes from interrogating captured terrorists. The Counterterrorist Center helps direct and analyze those sessions. It's all about "who knew who five years ago," says the official. "Where did they go after that? How did the network expand? What were they plotting then? Where did they live? Who did they live with?" But the adrenaline really gets pumping after an attack like the one in Madrid. The Counterterrorist Center will immediately run through a checklist of questions: What's the first take from the local intelligence service? What kind of evidence was found? Did anyone get a license plate? Was there any known operational terrorist cell there before? Are there satellite intercepts of telephone conversations? If the local authorities arrested someone, is that person known to the CIA?
In another part of the CIA complex, President Bush's briefer is on her way in. The thirtysomething, nine-year agency veteran is winding up a year-plus rotation in the job, which requires her to get to work around 2 a.m., six days a week. "Everything [the CIA] has produced in the past 24 hours crosses my desk," she says. That's plenty. To determine what intelligence the President should hear at around 8 a.m., along with his standard daily reports, she will zoom through a stack of fresh intelligence as tall as three phone books.

--By Timothy J. Burger. With reporting by Viveca Novak and Elaine Shannon/Washington

Copyright ? 2004 Time Inc. All rights reserved.
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Trilateral Maneuvers
Iran gets tight with Syria and Lebanon.

By Ilan Berman

If the Bush administration needed another reason to look beyond Baghdad in its war on terrorism, it has just been given one. In late February, Iran's defense minister, Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, embarked on a whirlwind tour of Syria and Lebanon. The resulting tightening of ties between Tehran, Beirut, and Damascus marks the birth of an ominous new alliance, deeply threatening to American interests.

Shamkhani's diplomatic offensive commenced with a two-day tour of Syria. There, Iran's defense minister held a very public summit with his Syrian counterpart, Lieutenant General Mustafa Tlas, at which the two hammered out a landmark strategic accord. The new "memorandum of understanding" establishes a joint working group on bilateral military and security, paving the way for deeper defense-industrial cooperation between Tehran and Damascus. More significant still, the agreement contains an unprecedented Iranian commitment to defend Syria in the event of either an Israeli or an American offensive, formally making the Baathist state a part of Iran's security.

From Damascus, Shamkhani traveled to Beirut, where he held court with the upper echelons of the Lebanese government. In meetings with the country's president, Emile Lahoud, as well as Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri and Army Commander Michel Soleyman, he pledged closer military ties with Beirut -- and an active Iranian role in Lebanon's emerging military modernization.

The Iranian defense minister also made a point of meeting with the leadership of Lebanon's Shiite terrorist powerhouse, Hezbollah, to whom he confirmed that the newly minted security guarantees between Syria and Iran would extend to their country. The message was unmistakable -- the Israeli and American "enemy" would now "think a thousand times before attacking Lebanon."

Tehran's full-court press is already paying dividends. In an outright show of support, President Lahoud has publicly praised the regional importance of the emerging "Tehran, Damascus, and Beirut axis." And Syrian officials -- under fire abroad for their government's deep support for terrorism -- have similarly made no secret of their enthusiasm for the nascent alliance's deterrent potential.

But these stirrings reflect more than simply a broadening of political bonds between Iran, Syria, and Lebanon. They are indicative of a larger realignment now underway in the Middle East, where the political vacuum created by overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime has begun to be filled.

And Iran is rapidly emerging as the biggest beneficiary of the new regional status quo. Over the past two years, American efforts in the war on terrorism have successfully eliminated Iran's most immediate strategic adversaries -- Saddam Hussein's Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan -- while effectively de-clawing the principal terror threat to the Islamic republic: the radical, Iraq-based Mujahedeen e-Khalq organization. These moves have left the United States Iran's principal remaining regional challenger. It is no wonder that Iranian policymakers like Expediency Council Secretary Mohsen Rezai have begun to view their country as the natural "center of international power politics" in the post-Saddam Middle East.

Tehran has wasted no time translating this vision into action. In recent months, the Islamic republic has gravitated toward a new, more confrontational strategic doctrine -- one that includes a major expansion of Iran's military capabilities and political presence in both the Persian Gulf and the Caucasus. This aggressive agenda has only been solidified by the sweeping victory of regime hard-liners in the country's recent, hotly contested parliamentary elections.

The trilateral alliance just crafted in Damascus and Beirut is a big part of these plans. Iran's leaders hope that such a radical coalition will blunt the impact of the U.S.-led transformation taking place in Iraq on their own restive population, and derail larger American plans for a sea change in the region's political balance -- an initiative they view as a "serious threat to the security, independence, and stability of the Islamic countries." Simultaneously, Tehran is seeking an answer to pro-Western constructs, like the Israeli-Turkish strategic partnership, capable of supplementing American efforts. And, in the midst of the war on terrorism, the Islamic republic is working hard to ensure the continued relevance of its most potent regional proxy, Hezbollah.

If it manages to accomplish these objectives, Washington might just find that U.S. Middle East policy has become a victim of Tehran's success.

-- Ilan Berman is vice president for policy at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, D.C.


http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/berman200403190918.asp
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ON LANGUAGE
Outsource
By WILLIAM SAFIRE

Outsourcing has become a national dirty word,'' reports National Journal's Congress Daily.

And it started out so brisk and efficient. Back in 1979, The Journal of the Royal Society of Arts reported an American auto executive's saying, ''We are so short of professional engineers in the motor industry that we are having to outsource design work to Germany.'' But the business practice of contracting with outside suppliers -- especially those outside the United States -- soon brought frowns from labor unions. Business Week noted in 1981 that the ''decline in auto industry jobs . . . will make outsourcing a key issue.''

When a new verb makes it to a gerund so quickly, it's a sign that the word fills a linguistic need. (Outsourcing is the present participle of a verb -- ending in ing -- that is used as a noun, which makes it a gerund, and there'll be a question about that in your exam.) For a generation, as globalization generated about twice as many jobs in the United States as it shipped abroad, the issue was relatively quiescent. But since 2000, when the creation of new jobs began to dip and then further decreased during recession, outsourcing became a favored political target of populists.

N. Gregory Mankiw, the Harvard economist and political innocent heading the Council of Economic Advisers, placed himself squarely in the bull's-eye. In his annual report -- 417 dreary pages issued in the president's name that nobody on the White House staff had the good sense to vet -- he noted that ''one facet of increased services trade is the increased use of offshore outsourcing, in which a company relocates labor-intensive service-industry functions to another country.'' He then observed, ''When a good or service is produced more cheaply abroad, it makes more sense to import it than to make or provide it domestically.''

Though few economists would take issue with this idea first propounded by David Ricardo in 1817, the language seemed deliciously insensitive in a campaign year. Mankiw was forced to apologize: ''My lack of clarity left the wrong impression that I praised the loss of U.S. jobs.''

Writing on the Web site of the leftist magazine The Nation, the iconoclastic Matt Bivens blurted out the truth: ''The dirty little secret in all of this is that both parties support free trade -- which works roughly as Mankiw describes it. He just wasn't supposed to be so coolly honest about it. It's disconcerting.'' Even more disconcerting to antiprotectionists was another attack gerund, emphasizing the shipment of jobs not just to outside suppliers but also to those in foreign lands: offshoring.

Business interests immediately considered a euphemistic counter-attack. A few years ago, in 2001, when legislation was introduced to enable the president to negotiate trade deals without subsequent Congressional modifications, free-traders changed the name of fast track authority, which seemed hasty, to trade promotion authority, a lexical coating that helped the necessary medicine go down.

The earliest thought along these lines appeared in 1998 in Fleet Owner magazine, noted by the alert Paul McFedries in his Web site, wordspy.com: ''While the traditional model of outsourcing defines the customer and the service provider as two separate systems, the intersourcing model integrates two systems.'' However, the freshly coined intersource, while a perfectly logical extension of the outsource concept, could lend itself to sexual innuendo on late-night television and was hurriedly abandoned.

This month, a group calling itself the Coalition for Economic Growth and American Jobs (who could be against that?) decided to oust out from outsourcing, proposing instead worldwide sourcing.

Within Cegaj, as the coalition has not yet become widely known, worldwide was chosen over global because the adjective global had become too warm -- that is, the noun formed from the adjective's verb, globalization, had acquired a pejorative connotation, in turn casting a pall over the root global itself. The use of world as an attributive noun, however, is still O.K.; that use as a modifier has been long established in World Series, World Cup, World Bank, World Economic Forum, world class, etc. This is despite the fact that the word, as a regular noun, is now eschewed by concerned liberals, who much prefer planet.

Forget international. This soporific modifier has been rejected by naming committees not on ideological grounds but because it is too long a word to fit in a one-column headline. It remains in old and revered institutions, like the International Monetary Fund and the International House of Pancakes, but is not being used in the newest nomenclature.

The astute reader (apparently the only kind I have, judging by sustained and gleeful e-mail howling from the Gotcha! Gang) will note the use of source two paragraphs above in its journalistic sense, as ''provider of information.''

In the inexorable trend toward the verbification of nouns, the question asked a generation ago by editors -- ''Do you really have a source for this?'' -- was changed to ''How has this been sourced?'' As if on cue, in galumphed the gerund -- ''You have to be careful about sourcing'' -- and sourcemanship became as good as scholarship. Our use of the gerund (which, you may recall, is a verb ending in ing used as a noun and possesses mysterious syntactical qualities) surely influenced the adoption of outsourcing.

In journalese, sourcing means ''getting some living person or historical citation to justify an assertion.'' Viewed from inside an organization, a source can be a despised leaker, traditionally described as ''a disgruntled ex-employee''; viewed from outside, he or she is a courageous whistle-blower. Closing down an overseas bureau and hiring independent ''stringers'' to do the reporting can be considered a specialized form of outsourcing. Basing an article on information gleaned from a journalistic colleague is sometimes called sourcing once removed, but maybe we should take another look at intersource.


Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company
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>> AHEM...
(AP Photo/Chitose Suzuki)

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/040321/480/bx10103212130
Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, right, makes a joke about a rumor that Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) had a plastic surgery, holding photos of Kerry, left, and pop star Michael Jackson during the annual St. Patrick's Day breakfast in Boston, Sunday, March 21, 2004. The breakfast, which gave President Bush (news - web sites) and Kerry the opportunity to engage in some lighthearted, long-distance one-upmanship, has been a tradition for more than 50 years, and is a prelude to the annual South Boston St. Patrick's Day Parade. Boston Mayor Thomas Menino is seen laughing in the foreground.
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Kerry and Bush urged to tone down election attacks frenzy
Sun Mar 21, 6:08 PM ET Add Politics - AFP to My Yahoo!
WASHINGTON (AFP) - President George W. Bush (news - web sites) and Democratic rival John Kerry (news - web sites) were warned tone down their presidential election attacks or risk a vote boycott by alienated Americans.
With a new poll showing Bush and Kerry neck-and-neck in the race, senior members of the Republican and Democratic parties appealed to the rivals to change tactics.
"Let's keep it civil so we don't get so nasty that we discourage people from coming out and voting in a very important election," said Senator Joseph Lieberman, who was a contender against Kerry for the Democratic nomination.
"This nation is almost evenly divided politically. And there are strategists in both parties who are urging both candidates to go for victory by whipping up into a frenzy the partisan, ideological base of both parties," Lieberman told Fox News channel.
Senator John McCain, who challenged Bush for the Republican nomination in 2000, said opinion poll verdicts on the campaign of attack adverts and political mudslinging would force them to change tactics.
"If they start getting polling numbers like I think they will of people who will say: 'A pox on both your houses,' then I think it will change. And I hope that it does," he told Fox.
McCain said he was hearing from people in his home state of Arizona who are saying: "Look, I'm not even going to vote if this is the way the campaign's going to be conducted."
With the election months away on November 2, Bush and Kerry are already entrenched in what has become the longest White House campaign ever.
Kerry launched aggressive attacks on the Republican president during his battle for the Democratic nomination. Bush is now fighting back with a series of television adverts decrying the Democrat as "wrong on taxes" and "wrong on defence".
Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites) have made strong assaults on Kerry and his policies and voting record in recent speeches.
A Newsweek magazine survey released Saturday said Bush and Kerry were even on 48 percent of voter support. A poll by the magazine one month ago put the Massachusetts senator ahead of the president 48-45 percent.
The survey said that if veteran liberal consumer advocate Ralph Nader (news - web sites) maintains his candidacy, Bush would lead by 48-45 percent.
Meanwhile, Bush encroached on Kerry's home turf Sunday when he called Massachusetts politicians who were attending an annual Saint Patrick's day breakfast in Boston.
One local politicans jokingly asked Bush to dump Cheney and consider Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, a Republican, as his new running mate.
"Look, you're lucky to have the guy. Here's the way I like to put it about Massachusetts: I know there's a lot of talk about a Massachusetts politician who has his eye on the presidency," Bush responded.
"But tell Mitt it's not open until 2008," he said, referring to the year that would mark the end of his second term if he were re-elected to a second four-year term.
On the more serious side, one other prominent Republican, Senator Chuck Hagel, was also critical of the Bush campaign's attacks on Kerry's Senate voting record.
"The facts just don't measure the rhetoric," he told ABC television.
He said campaigns could take the voting record of any longstanding senator "pick out different votes, and then try to manufacture something around that."
All the senators warned that a vicious election campaign risked undermining what should be a common aim to win the war on terror and make a success of attempts to restore order in Iraq (news - web sites).
Hagel said: "Kerry and Bush must conduct themselves in a way that when November 2 comes, whoever wins, they are going to have to be able to have legitimacy and the authority to govern this country and keep this coalition together."
He warned: "We may find ourselves over the next four years unable to sustain our policies in Iraq, Afghanistan (news - web sites) and on our war against terrorism, because the politics have so divided this country."
Lieberman, Democrat Al Gore (news - web sites)'s running mate in the 2000 presdiential election, said Bush and Kerry must "make sure that we carry on this debate in a way that doesn't send a mixed message to the Iraqis or our troops there, or to our enemies there. We're together in trying to find a strategy for success and victory and democracy in Iraq."
He added: "Our security is being challenged in a way that it's never been challenged before, so let's not divide ourselves right now."

Posted by maximpost at 10:08 PM EST
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>> JOHN KERRY FILES...

His brother's keeper

By Sara Leibovich-Dar
haaretz
In 1972, John Kerry tried to get elected to the U.S. Congress as a representative from Massachusetts. His brother, Cameron Kerry, helped with his election campaign. He was a Catholic at the time. Twelve years later, in 1984, John Kerry ran for the Senate. His brother was at his side again - this time as a Jew. A year earlier he had undergone a Reform conversion and married Kathy Weinman, a Jewish lawyer from Michigan.
It's three days after Super Tuesday earlier this month, the day of nine Democratic primaries, when John Kerry consolidated his victory and was named the party's presidential candidate. Cameron Kerry laughs when asked if his conversion changed the nature of his advice to his brother.
"It didn't make any difference," he said in a telephone interview from his Boston law office. "Jews were always involved in Democratic politics, and were around the Democratic Party. It doesn't affect what I am doing. I am the cheerleader, adviser and surrogate to my brother."
He takes a relaxed attitude toward his conversion. "It was important to my wife and to her family. We decided to raise our children Jewish. After this, the conversion itself was a small step, which came easily and comfortably."
How did your family react?
Kerry: "They supported me. We grew up in a cosmopolitan environment."
Cameron Kerry is the youngest of four siblings. The family history is complicated. John and Cameron Kerry's grandfather, Frederick Kerry, was born as a Jew named Fritz Kohn, in the town of Bennisch in the Austro-Hungarian empire (today Horni Benesov, in the Czech Republic). His wife, Ida Loewe, was also born a Jew. In 1902, after marrying and becoming a father, Kohn changed his name in the population registry to Frederick Kerry. In 1905 he came to the United States, where he lived as a Catholic. In 1921 he committed suicide, apparently as a result of financial difficulties. His American descendants were Catholic. Two members of his family who remained in Europe were murdered in Nazi concentration camps.
Cameron Kerry says that when he discovered, about a year ago, that his grandfather was a Jew, he felt it was ironic. He says that his wife and children laughed when they heard about it. He told Reform Judaism magazine in the fall of 2003, "I guess things come full circle." In an interview with the Detroit Jewish News, he said that he was surprised at the number of Jews in his synagogue who had told him similar stories, and concluded "It's an American story."

Boarding-school childhood
Richard, the father of John and Cameron Kerry, was the youngest of Frederick and Ida's three children. He was born and grew up in Massachusetts, was an U.S. Army Air Corps pilot during World War II, and a lawyer and diplomat in the American foreign service. His wife, Rosemary, nee Forbes, was born in France. Her father was a wealthy banker, she grew up in France and England. One of her ancestors, John Winthrop, was one of the founders of the city of Boston.
Richard Kerry didn't tell his children anything about his father. At the end of the 1990s, after he fell ill with cancer, he told John that Frederick had committed suicide, but he didn't tell him about his grandfather's Jewish origins. Kerry found out from a newspaper article researched by The Boston Globe. It isn't clear whether Richard knew and hid the information from his children, or actually didn't know anything about his father's origins. Richard died in 2000 at the age of 85. His wife, Rosemary, died two years later at the age of 89.
Peggy is the eldest of Richard and Rosemary's four children and today works with the U.S. delegation to the UN in New York, as a liaison officer with non-governmental organizations. John is the second child. Diana, who lives in Manchester, Massachusetts, is a teacher who has taught in Boston, Iran, Thailand and Indonesia. Cameron is the youngest. He was born in Washington and grew up in Oslo and Germany, where their father was send by the foreign service, and attended private boarding schools in Switzerland and in New Hampshire. He received his bachelor's degree from Harvard, and went on to study law at Boston College Law School - like his brother.
Although the children of the family studied in boarding schools while their father roamed the world as part of his work, Peggy says in a phone interview from New York that they were a close family. Their sister Diana, in a conversation by phone from her home in Massachusetts, says that because they weren't together much, every time the family members did meet, they enjoyed their time - whether spending vacations together or visiting relatives, and her brothers loved doing sports like sailing and skiing together.
Peggy Kerry confirms that her parents were very accepting of Cameron's conversion. "It wasn't that they didn't care, our parents left us the decisions." She says that she had no problem with it, either. She believes that every child can do what he thinks is right, and adds that in the U.S. many people change their religion. Diana Kerry says that her mother agreed to raise her children as Catholics although she herself was an Episcopalian, so that this idea was not new to the family.
Cameron Kerry is quite active as a Jew. "My wife goes to Temple Israel in Boston whenever she can. I pray there on Friday evenings. I celebrate the High Holy Days, I fast on Yom Kippur. We celebrate the Passover seder with my wife's family, at our home the first night and at my brother-in-law's, the second."
Asked if his older brother had ever come to a seder, Cameron says that John knows what it is, and that he has celebrated it with Jewish families, but not in his brother's home.
Does Judaism mean for you as a convert a different way of thinking?
"It has impacts, but I can't say how. For me it was natural, it's part of family life. My two daughters, aged 17 and 13, have a strong sense of Jewish identity. One is the head of the Jewish Student Union in her high school, the other is appearing in `The Sound of Music' at her school tonight as the Mother Abbess. The costume made for her includes a chasuble with a cross on it, but she has substituted her tallit [prayer shawl]."
Do you advise your brother on Israel and the Middle East?
"John has his own policy in these matters. I am not his adviser for Israel and the Middle East, although I can help and it is very fascinating for me. He visited Israel many times after he was elected to the Senate in 1984, and met many leaders. I have never visited Israel. When my daughters were young I didn't want to travel far away."
Let others decide
Asked what he thinks about the separation fence, Cameron Kerry says that he prefers to let John's positions speak for themselves. As to the question of whether it would be better for the State of Israel and for American Jews if Senator Joseph Lieberman, who is Jewish, were the Democratic candidate, the younger Kerry says he prefers not to reply, and that other people should decide.
Will John Kerry will be a president who is sympathetic to Israel?
"He will make the world a safer place."
Will the fact that the brother of the Democratic candidate for president is a Jew affect the Jewish vote? Diana Kerry thinks it won't. She says that the American Jewish community will examine John's abilities and his opinions, adding that her younger brother's religion will not affect the policies of her older brother.
The decline in anti-Semitism and the fact that John Kerry's brother has no job in the administration make his Jewishness a "non-issue," says Stuart Eisenstadt, deputy secretary of the U.S. treasury in the Clinton administration. He explains that people make their decisions according to the candidate and not according to who his brother is.
Jack Rosen, president of the American Jewish Congress, says in a phone interview from New York that Cameron's Jewishness won't hurt his brother, but John Kerry will have to deal with President George W. Bush's credentials. According to Rosen, the question of Kerry's Jewish family connections will be secondary, and he adds that the incumbent president has a record in areas related to Israel - he has raised the level of support for it, and for that reason Kerry's positions on these issues will be more relevant than his brother's Jewishness.
Prof. Eytan Gilboa of the department of political studies at Bar-Ilan University believes that Cameron Kerry's Jewishness, as well as the Jewish roots of the Kerry family, will be of importance in the election campaign.
"If [President George W.] Bush could find Jewish roots, he would use them, too," says Gilboa. "The wife of candidate Howard Dean is Jewish, Wesley Clark has a Jewish grandfather, and they all considered Judaism a good sales pitch. In these elections there is a tremendous battle for every vote, after the last elections were decided by a few hundred votes. Although the Jews constitute only 2 percent of the population, according to the myth, Jewish capital constitutes half of the contributions to the Democrats. The Jews also vote in very high numbers, about 90 percent of the vote, as opposed to an overall voting rate of about 50 percent. The Republican Party also wants Jewish capital and the Jewish vote.
"In the last presidential elections, about 20 percent of the Jews voted for Bush. At his headquarters they are hoping for a Jewish vote of 30 percent. The competition for Jewish capital and the Jewish vote will be more significant this time. That is why candidates are emphasizing their Jewish roots."
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Who's afraid of Mordechai Vanunu?

By Yossi Melman
In June 1976, after a chance conversation with a friend who was employed at the nuclear reactor in Dimona and had good things to say about his place of work, Mordechai Vanunu decided to try his luck there. On the advice of his friend, he scoured the want ads in the papers for one for workers at the Dimona Nuclear Research Center, as it is officially called (or, according to the Hebrew acronym, Kamag), and when he found such an ad, he submitted an application. He was invited for a preliminary meeting, followed by a more comprehensive interview and a security-clearance process, which he passed successfully. A month later, he was informed that he had been hired. The document approving his entry into a preliminary course was signed by Aryeh Felman, then the head of the security screening department in the Shin Bet security service.
Vanunu's preparatory employment course lasted two months. It was an accelerated program in which newcomers were taught basic terms in English, math and physics, and given an introduction to the world of nuclear reactors. In his testimony in Israeli courts after revealing the secrets of the Dimona reactor to the Britain's Sunday Times, Vanunu said: "At the end of the course we had an exam. The majority passed. But a few people were rejected, one for a drugs background, another because he had left-wing relatives, things like that."
Vanunu wasn't rejected. He was accepted for a training course at the nuclear plant. The fact that he was hired was the first in a series of security blunders that characterized the affair from the outset. It now emerges that Vanunu had applied for a job at the Shin Bet a few years earlier, but was rejected on grounds of incompatibility. His application form and the reasons for the rejection appeared in his personal file at the Dimona facility. But despite this, the security officer there, Zvi K., authorized his employment without bothering to check the matter with the Shin Bet.
In 1980, Zvi K. was promoted to director of personnel at the reactor. He was replaced as security officer by Yehiel K., who had completed a tour of duty as security officer of the Defense Ministry mission in the United States. Yehiel K. held the post for seven years, until October 6, 1987 - the formative years of the affair. In 1987 he was appointed internal comptroller of the Dimona facility; he retired two years ago.
The division of power and responsibility for protecting the nuclear reactor were not precisely established or formalized in that period. The security officer received his salary from the Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC), which is responsible, among other things, for the facility. Professionally, the security officer is accountable to the chief security officer in the Defense Ministry (known by the Hebrew acronym Malmab), at the time Chaim Carmon (???). He also receives instructions from several units of the Shin Bet: The protective security department, which in the Vanunu period was run by Savinoam Avivi, is supposed to provide the security officer with professional guidance. The security screening unit carries out the reliability tests and background checks of candidates for jobs in plants under the auspices of the defense establishment or other highly sensitive places. The counterespionage and political subversion branch has the task of supervising, collecting information and thwarting subversive activity by both foreigners (including diplomats) and Israeli Jews. (A different Shin Bet unit, the Arab Affairs Department, deals with political subversion by Arab citizens of Israel.) The head of the counterespionage branch from 1981 to 1985 was Peleg Radai.
All these individuals bear responsibility, to one degree or another, for the security blunders in the Vanunu affair. The junior technician from Be'er Sheva, one of 10 siblings in a family that emigrated from Morocco in 1963, succeeded in fooling everyone. This is the secret that hasn't yet been told in the affair: the story of the security fiasco that made it possible for Vanunu to do what he did, and the story of the subsequent attempts at cover-up, whitewashing and protection of senior figures in the defense establishment, who were bent on divesting themselves of responsibility for the failure.
What makes Horev run?
The 18-year prison term to which Vanunu was sentenced - which will end on April 21 - is almost exactly the same period as that in which Yehiel Horev has served as chief of internal security in the defense establishment. Vanunu's success in divulging Israel's nuclear secrets to The Sunday Times - which ran the story on October 5, 1986, headlined "Inside Dimona, Israel's nuclear bomb factory" - hastened Horev's appointment to the high-ranking post, and since then he has viewed himself as the guardian of the secrets of the nuclear reactor in Dimona. Fortunately for Horev, in the critical period when Vanunu was fired and went abroad, he was on study leave at the National Security College. However, he was involved in the affair before that, as deputy chief of security at the Defense Ministry, and also after Vanunu's abduction and arrest, as a member of an investigative commission.
Yehiel Horev (Zilberman) was born in Tel Aviv in 1944, and at an early age moved to Kibbutz Hulata, in Upper Galilee. He did his army service in the Golani infantry brigade, reaching the rank of lieutenant. In the course of his reserve service, in the Armored Corps, he was promoted to the rank of major. At the end of the 1960s he took part in an Israel Defense Forces mission that trained the army of Congo. Returning to Israel in 1969, he was recruited as a security officer in an IAEC unit in the center of the country.
In 1975, Horev was promoted and made responsible for the physical protection department in the Defense Ministry. From the latter's headquarters at the Defense Ministry compound in Tel Aviv, he oversaw the protection of all the facilities, sites and plants of the defense establishment. The most closely watched "jewels in the defense crown" were the nuclear facility in Dimona and the Biological Institute at Nes Ziona, south of Tel Aviv, where, according to foreign reports, Israel's nonconventional weapons (nuclear, biological, chemical) are manufactured. The physical protection department is responsible for the connection with the security officers of the plants and for issuing their instructions, and its task is to oversee and ensure that they are doing their work properly.
Even at this early stage, the basic traits that characterize Horev to this day were noticeable: devotion to duty alongside blandness, pettiness and acute suspiciousness, but also personal integrity and a strong desire to expose corruption and failures, as well as a penchant for vengefulness. The affairs of the secrets that leaked from the two places considered Horev's holiest sites - the Biological Institute, which produced a senior spy in the person of Prof. Marcus Klingberg, and the Dimona nuclear plant, about which secret information was revealed through Mordechai Vanunu - were formative events in the development of his world view.
Shortly after taking office as chief of securityat the Defense Ministry, Horev began to take punitive measures to hobble Vanunu. He is responsible for the harsh conditions in which Vanunu was held, which included years in solitary confinement, and the sharp limitations on the number of visitors he could have. A few years ago, Horev removed from his office Amiram Levine, a senior official in the department of special affairs and information protection. In Horev's view, Levine displayed carelessness by not censoring properly the transcripts from the Vanunu trial that the Supreme Court allowed to be published.
Today, after failing to persuade the political echelon to place Vanunu under administrative detention (arrest without trial) even after he completes his prison term, Horev is fighting a rearguard battle to prevent Vanunu from leaving Israel and to place him under supervision and restrictions that will be tantamount to house arrest. Horev has always been considered the strictest of all the security chiefs in Israel, especially in regard to the protection of institutions such as the Dimona facility and the Biological Institute. He is apprehensive that if Vanunu goes abroad, he will continue to be a nuisance by stimulating the public debate over Israel's nuclear policy and the nuclear weapons he says Israel possesses.
A good many experts, both in the Shin Bet and the IAEC, take issue with Horev's unrelentingly rigorous approach. According to these experts, who are afraid to be identified by name, Horev, by imposing restrictions on Vanunu, will achieve the exact opposite of his intention, as international attention will then be focused on Vanunu and on Israel's nuclear secrets. Moreover, many people wonder what Vanunu could possibly reveal beyond what he already has. What additional secrets could be known to Vanunu, who for nine years worked as a junior technician and was a shift manager at the nuclear plant in Dimona, and for nearly 20 years has had no contact with his former place of work?
The fact is that almost everything relating to the Vanunu affair has been made public. The secrets of the Dimona reactor, including its units and structure, were published, in the wake of Vanunu's information, by The Sunday Times. Also known are the circumstances of Vanunu's abduction in Rome in an operation mounted by the Mossad espionage agency, which was closely overseen by Shabtai Shavit, then the deputy chief of the Mossad. Even the identity of "Cindy," the Mossad agent who lured Vanunu to fly with her from his place of hiding in London to the apartment of her "sister, the journalist," in Rome, where she was supposed to grant him sexual favors, was exposed in the international press: Cheryl Hanin Bentov.
The feeling, then, is that all the hyperactivity being displayed by Horev and those who support his approach is intended only to divert attention from what has not yet been revealed: the security blunders and their cover-ups. This is also apparently the reason that all the senior officials who were responsible for the blunders refused to respond or be interviewed for this article.
Formative resolutions
Mordechai Vanunu attended Beit Yaakov, a religious elementary school run by the ultra-Orthodox Agudat Israel movement. He went on to Ohalei Shlomo, a high-school yeshiva, but dropped out and entered the IDF at the age of 17. He served in the Engineering Corps and reached the rank of first sergeant. In 1973, he enrolled for a preparatory program at Tel Aviv University and excelled in mathematics and physics. However, extended reserve duty in the 1973 Yom Kippur War combined with a shortage of funds forced him to break off his studies and return to his parents' home in Be'er Sheva. These were the circumstances that prompted him to look for a job with the Shin Bet and then with the Dimona nuclear facility.
On January 1, 1977, Vanunu joined one of the special buses that took employees from Be'er Sheva to the reactor every day and passed through the gates of Israel's most secret plant. The new employees were taken to the facility's school, where they signed a pledge of secrecy and undertook not to talk to anyone about their work. Vanunu then received his security pass, whose number was 9657-8. He underwent a medical check and was found fit, and was sent to take another course, this one more advanced, in nuclear physics. This course placed emphasis on uranium and radioactivity.
For the next 10 weeks, the new employees went through another round of training for their work at the reactor. The training period concluded at the end of June 1977, and Vanunu and his colleagues were formally admitted to the "holy of holies" of Israel's security religion. Vanunu received another security pass, numbered 320, which gave him entry to "Machon [Institute] 2" where, according to what he told the Times, nuclear weapons are manufactured. He was also assigned a locker (No. 3) for his personal effects.
Most of his work was on the night shift in the control rooms of Machon 2, from 11:30 P.M. until 8 A.M. After the first flush of excitement wore off, Vanunu found the work boring and monotonous. In the summer of 1980, after returning from a trip abroad, he left his rented apartment in Dimona and for $20,000, including his savings and funds from his siblings, bought a small flat near Ben-Gurion University (BGU) of the Negev in Be'er Sheva. Around this time he also made two resolutions that would shape his life: to attend university and to keep a personal diary.
After initially enrolling to study economics, he changed his mind and opted for geography and philosophy. According to his brother Meir, Mordechai began delving deeply into the writings of classical philosophers and gulped them all down - from Aristotle to Spinoza, and from Kant and Descartes to the moderns such as Kierkegaard, Nietzsche and Sartre. He became familiar with abstract thought, which emphasizes the self, the individual and his responsibility. The information about his readings in philosophy is contained in his diary, in which he always made the entries at night, during the long hours of his boring shift at the nuclear facility.
In the eyes of his employers, Vanunu was an outstanding employee during his first five years of work at the plant. There were no complaints against him or reports about unusual behavior. Beneath the surface, though, Vanunu began to change.
"His political world view was also shaped at the university," says Meir Vanunu. In his youth, Mordechai had identified with the extreme right and saw nothing amiss with the racist ideas of Rabbi Meir Kahane and his Kach movement, but he now embarked on a long journey that led him to the political center and finally to the extreme left. He was elected to the student council on the ticket of Campus, a Jewish-Arab students' organization, was active in promoting the rights of Arab students, took part in demonstrations against the war in Lebanon and the occupation, and submitted a request to join the students' association of Rakah, the Communist Party.
In the summer of 1982, when he was called up for reserve duty at the height of the Lebanon War, Vanunu, who objected to the war's goals, refused to serve in field tasks in his Engineering Corps unit, preferring instead to do kitchen duty. In the next two years he became known on campus as a radical in terms of his world view and as an eccentric in terms of his behavior. He was photographed, for example, dancing naked at a campus party and was a nude model for art students. It turns out that all this activity was known to the security officials at the Dimona reactor.
Drift to the left
Yehiel K., who was the Dimona reactor's security officer in those years, created for himself - in the plant and at BGU (where a number of Dimona employees at the nuclear facility were studying, teaching or doing research) - a network of "loyalists" whose task was to report unusual occurrences. To this end he also made use of the good working relations he developed with the university's security officer, Zvi Schwartz.
In 1982, reports started coming in to Yehiel K. from Schwartz and others about Vanunu's "deviant" behavior on campus: his participation in demonstrations against the Lebanon War, his connections with Arab students, his nude dancing at the party and his pronouncements against Israel's nuclear policy. At the Dimona facility, whose staff has a highly developed security sense, any and all evidence of unusual behavior, however minor, is supposed to receive immediate and thorough treatment.
Indeed, as soon as the reports started coming in, Yehiel K. felt that there was a "real problem" and took action at a number of levels. First, he reported the matter to the personnel director at the nuclear plant, Zvi K., the former security officer, and also to the director general of the reactor facility, Avraham (Roberto) Saroussi. In addition, Yehiel K. sent reports on the subject to the Defense Ministry security chief, Chaim Carmon, and to the professional unit in the Shin Bet - the Jewish Department in the counter-espionage branch - and kept copies of all the reports in his office.
Vanunu thus became a "checkee" - someone who had to be checked and placed under supervision. According to the instructions and the procedures in the defense establishment, once an employee becomes a "checkee," his employers are barred from taking any action against him without the authorization of the security officials, so that they can keep him under tabs without arousing his suspicion. But at the Dimona plant people ignored the instructions and continued to treat Vanunu as an outstanding worker. They even sent him to an advanced course for senior staff. This period saw several waves of dismissals at the reactor, due to budget cuts. Accordingly, Yehiel K. sent Zvi K. and Avraham Saroussi a list of employees who must under no circumstances be laid off without his prior approval. One of the names on the list was Mordechai Vanunu.
The counterespionage branch also issued a directive not to fire Vanunu. For Yehiel K. this was superfluous, as he had already issued such an instruction. At one stage, Peleg Radai, head of counterespionage, convened a special meeting in which it was decided to call Vanunu in for questioning. On the same occasion it was also decided to recruit Vanunu as a department informer to win his loyalty, but mainly "to put him into a framework" in order to keep him under close watch.
The mission was assigned to Avraham B., head of the unit in the Jewish Department that dealt with subversion by the extreme left. Avraham B. and his immediate superior, Yisrael G., the head of that department, met with Vanunu at least twice. Avraham B. asked Vanunu about his political activity and for the names of the friends he had met with, and sought information about the parlor talks in which Vanunu had taken part and about his membership in various organizations. Mainly, though, he wanted to know whether Vanunu had told any of his associates in the political groups, and especially the Arab students, about his job.
Vanunu, who was tense and nervous at the meetings, replied in great detail to all the questions. He said that none of his friends in the political groups knew that he worked at the Dimona facility, even though he had spoken out against Israel's nuclear policy. He explained his deep political involvement as stemming from his opposition to the war in Lebanon. Vanunu was warned that he had signed a secrecy pledge and that he had to report any attempts to make contact with him to the reactor's security officer. Avraham B. advised Vanunu to break off his relations with the Arab students and stay away from them, hinting that otherwise Vanunu's advancement at work was liable to be affected.
At the conclusion of each meeting, Avraham B. drew up a report describing the stages of Vanunu's slide into the radical-left organizations. However, the language of the reports was not especially acute. Nor did Avraham B. recommend taking immediate action against Vanunu. There are three versions about one important issue: Was it suggested that Vanunu become a paid informer? One version is that the attempt to recruit Vanunu as an informer for the department had failed. Vanunu simply refused to cooperate. According to a different version, Vanunu did cooperate and agreed to report on his friends, but his handlers afterward broke off the connection with him because his reports were considered unreliable. In retrospect, former Shin Bet officials say that the decision to break off the connection with Vanunu was a mistake and that the organization should have continued to run him "on empty" and reward him for his reports, in order to maintain close contact with him. The third version is that no one suggested he become an informer.
Contrary to instructions
Even before he received the first reports about Vanunu, Chaim Carmon, the chief security officer in the Defense Ministry, wasn't pleased with the work of Yehiel K. Carmon persuaded the director general of the Defense Ministry, Avraham Maron, and then Maron's successor, David Ivri, and the chief of the Shin Bet, Avraham Shalom, to use their influence with the director general of the IAEC, Uzi Eilam, to replace Yehiel K. However, Eilam refused. He was satisfied with Yehiel K.'s work and viewed the requests of Carmon and the Defense Ministry as little more than a caprice attributable to the "wars of the bureaucrats." Seeing no other choice, Carmon decided to ask his deputy, Yehiel Horev, to act as a kind of "overseer" of security at the reactor and Yehiel K.
Carmon was unable to find a common language with Peleg Radai, the head of the Shin Bet's counter-espionage and subversion branch. In retrospect, he believed that Radai had been wholly preoccupied with the internal struggle that had been going on in the Shin Bet since April 1984. That month, two Palestinian terrorists who had been taken captive in an operation to rescue the passengers of the hijacked No. 300 bus, were killed on orders of the Shin Bet chief, Avraham Shalom.
Shalom then ordered his aides to obscure, cover up and whitewash the deed and even to lie to a number of commissions that were established to investigate the episode. Radai, together with two other senior Shin Bet officials, Reuven Hazak and Rafi Malka, demanded Shalom's resignation.
As a result, Carmon decided to bypass Radai and directly contacted the head of the Shin Bet himself. However, Avraham Shalom, too, was completely absorbed in the battle against the "rebels," whom he perceived as simply wanting to dump him in order to bring about the appointment of Reuven Hazak, his deputy.
In the summer of 1985, the heads of the personnel department at the reactor called in Vanunu for a talk. Contrary to the instructions of Yehiel K., Carmon and Radai not to take any action against Vanunu without their authorization, they informed the technician that he was going to be transferred from Machon 2 to a different unit. Vanunu, who already knew that he was being targeted by the defense establishment and suspected that the transfer was politically motivated, reacted angrily. He made remarks along the lines of, "You're out to get me. You want to screw me. If you don't want me to work here, then fine, I'm ready to quit."
The personnel executives jumped at the suggestion and together with Vanunu arranged for his name to be included on the next list of 100 employees who were being let go. The decision was approved by both Zvi K., the personnel director, and the reactor's director general, Avraham Saroussi. It was only after Vanunu's name was placed on the list that Yehiel K. received a report that the technician had been fired - contrary to his instructions.
In October 1985, the three Shin Bet "rebels" were suspended and afterward resigned from the security service. Mordechai Vanunu's contract at the nuclear facility also concluded that month. Shortly afterward, Yehiel K. received a report that Vanunu had sold his apartment in Be'er Sheva and his old car and was planning to leave the country. Yehiel K. reported this immediately to Carmon, whose response surprised him: "Cancel his security clearance." Yehiel K. replied: "You're confused. His security clearance was long since revoked. He doesn't work for us any more. Now the problem is his trip abroad."
Carmon thereupon proposed to the Shin Bet that Vanunu be "BC-ed" - jargon based on "Border Control," meaning to enter a person's name into the computers of the Border Control officers and thus keep tabs on his every departure from and entry into the country. Carmon's suggestion was mentioned in passing at a meeting of the counter-espionage branch and not discussed further. Afterward, Carmon was even prepared to declare Vanunu insane to prevent him from leaving the country, but no serious discussion was held about that idea, either.
The cover-up
In 1984, shortly after Carmon asked him to oversee Yehiel K. and the Dimona facility, Yehiel Horev went on leave to study at the National Security College. Vanunu was fired in October 1985 and received severance pay for his nine years of work at the plant. He sold his car and his apartment and that December, bought a cheap one-way ticket to Bangkok. Seemingly, he was one more young Israeli going on a soul-searching quest in the Far East. Vanunu, though, had other plans, albeit as yet undefined. In his luggage, he hid two rolls of film that he had shot secretly at various places in the reactor during his employment there. In Thailand he visited a Buddhist monastery, which made such a powerful impression on him that he contemplated a conversion to Buddhism. He then changed his plans and went to Sydney, Australia. There he met an Anglican priest named John McKnight and joined his small church.
Vanunu converted to Christianity, conducted soulful talks with the members of the congregation and became friends with Oscar Guerrero, who introduced himself as an occasional journalist. Vanunu told him about his work at the reactor and about the photographs he had taken there. Guerrero, who saw a possible lucrative deal in the making, enthusiastically persuaded Vanunu to offer his story to the media. Together they made the rounds, but no one, not Australian papers and not Newsweek magazine, believed them, until finally The Sunday Times decided that the story was worth checking out.
After about two years at the National Security College, Horev resumed his work in the Defense Ministry. By coincidence, he returned to work on the very day that the defense establishment learned that Vanunu was going to publish his story in The Times. The report came from the Mossad, which was then engaged in an operation aimed at finding and capturing Vanunu.
Carmon, the chief securityofficer in the Defense Ministry, happened to be abroad at the time, and Horev, his deputy, was appointed to head an interdepartmental team to deal with the case, with representatives of the Shin Bet and the Mossad. After Vanunu was abducted in Rome and brought back to Israel by sea, Horev was appointed by Carmon to take part in a committee set up to examine the course of events, together with Avner Barnea, then head of the training division of the Shin Bet. From the point of view of the internal security chief and the Shin Bet, the establishment of the committee was tantamount to going through the motions, something like letting the cat guard the cream.
Neither of the two organizations, not to mention their chiefs, wanted any sort of in-depth investigation. Carmon hoped that Horev, his deputy and protege, would not issue a sharp report against him. Over the years it became clear to Barnea that Horev himself, on the instructions of Carmon, was involved in the issue of security at the reactor and thus, ostensibly, due to a conflict of interest, should not have been a member of the committee.
They met with Yehiel K., the Dimona plant's security officer, in his office at the facility. They questioned him very briefly, for only a few minutes, and Horev went on to other matters at the reactor. They never asked Yehiel K. for the documents, charts or correspondence in his possession. Yehiel K., for his part, never offered them.
The watered-down report they issued mentioned flaws that had been discovered, but termed them structural flaws. The committee found that there had been poor communication between the various security branches, and recommended improved liaison between the Shin Bet, the nuclear facility and the chief security officer. In addition the committee recommended improving the security arrangements at the Dimona plant and to conduct random checks. Even though the report was not exactly drafted in a clear manner, it is evident from it that the way all the elements in this affair operated, as one person involved defined it, was "one big disgrace. Everyone was consumed by blindness and fell asleep on the job - they simply didn't do anything and behaved like kids , not like professionals who are expected to act in a thorough way, with responsibility and careful consideration."
The only individual singled out for having possibly been negligent was Yehiel K., who was said not to have complied with the agreements about not firing Vanunu. Katz never saw the report, but years later, in Shin Bet training courses on protective security, he was noted as having acted properly.
Whatever became of ...?
At the end of 1985, with the No. 300 bus affair at its height - though still kept secret from the public - the Shin Bet chief, Avraham Shalom, neutralized Peleg Radai, and the counterespionage and political subversion branch was effectively placed in the hands of Radai's deputy, Aharon G. Shortly afterward, Radai and his two fellow "rebels" left the Shin Bet and established Shafran, a private security company.
Yehiel K. had asked to switch jobs at the beginning of 1985, long before Vanunu was fired. His request was granted only after Avraham Saroussi resigned as director general of the Dimona facility and was replaced by Giora Amir. On the day Yehiel K. left his post as security officer, October 6, 1986, Vanunu was tied up in a small cabin on a vessel that was plying the waters of the Mediterranean en route to Israel. Yehiel K. became internal comptroller of the reactor.
Zvi K. retired from the Dimona plant about five years ago, but was occasionally employed as a consultant to the facility. The director general, Avraham S., retired a few years ago, and Avner B. left the Shin Bet in 1993 and became a businessman.
Carmon remained in the Defense Ministry for a few more years and then retired. Some time later, Horev told friends in the ministry that if it had not been for him, Carmon would have been removed from his post long before. Instead, Horev said, he and others persuaded Carmon to accept the rank of deputy director general of the Defense Ministry with a bombastic title referring to responsibility for three departments: external relations, defense aid and internal security.
Carmon was seemingly Horev's superior in this capacity, but in practice Horev refused to accept this and began gradually to entrench his status as chief security officer of the Defense Ministry. A few years ago, he requested that the head of the Shin Bet transfer to him the authority to appoint security officers, by means of statutory regulations that would have effectively made his office the fourth official intelligence branch in Israel, together with the Mossad, Military Intelligence and the Shin Bet. Only the determined opposition of the attorney general, Elyakim Rubinstein, prevented this development.
As for the political level, it showed little interest in the failure. The prime minister at the time, Shimon Peres, prided himself on the Mossad's success in capturing Vanunu and bringing him to Israel. "I was informed that everything that had to be examined was examined and that all the conclusions were drawn and the lessons gleaned," Peres told Haaretz, through his press officer, in response.
The making of a chief security officer
Chaim Carmon, a Holocaust survivor, immigrated to this country in 1946, worked in the diamond industry and joined Shai, the information service of the Haganah, the pre-state defense force. In the War of Independence he served as a sapper in the Kiryati Brigade. After his discharge, he joined the Shin Bet. For a few years he was the bodyguard of the prime minister, David Ben-Gurion. In 1953, when Ben-Gurion resigned and moved to Kibbutz Sde Boker, in the Negev, Carmon returned to the investigations unit at Shin Bet headquarters near the flea market in Jaffa.
In 1954, a disagreement erupted over which body would be responsible for internal security in the Defense Ministry: the field security section of Military Intelligence, or the Shin Bet. The Shin Bet got the nod and Avraham Niv was appointed security officer of the Defense Ministry, with Carmon named as his aide. A year later, Niv resigned and Carmon became the ministry's security officer.
Carmon held the post for nearly 10 years, which turned out to be an era of exciting events. With the backing of the prime minister and defense minister, David Ben-Gurion, his protege, Shimon Peres - first as director general of the Defense Ministry and then as the deputy minister - turned the ministry into something like a state within a state. In this period, to the chagrin of the foreign minister, Golda Meir, secret ties were forged that were translated into arms sales and purchases of security equipment from Germany. The defense industries - Israel Aircraft Industries, Israel Military Industries and Rafael (Israel Arms Development Authority) - enjoyed tremendous momentum, and clandestine talks in Paris evolved into a joint plan, with the French and the British, to attack Egypt in October 1956, and a year later produced agreements with France for the purchase of a nuclear reactor, including know-how, equipment and technology.
Carmon, by virtue of his position, took part in all these events and was responsible for keeping the secrets. He was professionally answerable to the protective security branch of the Shin Bet, headed by Binyamin Blumberg. At the order of Shimon Peres, who wanted, among other aims, to "compartmentalize" Isser Harel, the head of the Mossad, and not make him privy to the secret of the reactor at Dimona, a special unit was established in the Defense Ministry to guard that reactor as well as the research reactor that was built at the same time in Nahal Sorek. The unit went through a number of incarnations and names, being known variously as "Special Projects" and the "Office of Special Assignments" and later as Lakam, an acronym for "Science Liaison Bureau."
The unit's mission was to safeguard the construction of the two reactors, in 1960-61, and afterward to protect them, ensure that the secrets didn't leak out, check the reliability of the staff, and be involved in the purchase of the equipment and the materials (including uranium) for their activation.
During the split in the ruling Mapai party (the precursor of Labor) in the 1960s and the subsequent establishment of the Rafi party by Ben-Gurion and his supporters, Peres and Moshe Dayan, Carmon, who to this day sees himself as a "Ben-Gurionist," joined the breakaway group. This is probably why he was sent into "exile" as part of the Defense Ministry mission to the United States. When he returned to Israel, he once more held positions in the ministry's protection and security system. Following the Yom Kippur War and in the wake of structural changes in the ministry, he became head of security not only in the ministry but throughout the defense establishment, and thus was born the Hebrew acronym "Malab" (chief of security in the Defense Ministry).
Carmon's superior, Blumberg, who never gave an interview and whose photograph never appeared in the press, actually wore three hats: He held the status of the head of a branch in the Shin Bet, but was also the chief security officer of the Defense Ministry and, in particular, was head of Lakam. At the end of the 1970s, following the Likud's rise to power, the defense minister, Ezer Weizman, and his deputy, Mordechai Zippori, decided to get rid of Blumberg. Rumors reached them that Blumberg was closely connected with the Labor Party establishment, that there were suspicions of financial irregularities as a result of transactions related to purchase of materials and equipment for the Dimona reactor and for the defense industries, and that money had been transferred to secret funds, which might also be used for political purposes.
Blumberg preempted them. He went to the prime minister, Menachem Begin, and asked for his intercession. Begin ruled that Blumberg would stay. However, two years later, after Ariel Sharon became defense minister, Blumberg was forced out. He was succeeded by Rafi Eitan as head of Lakam. Eitan, too, held two positions. Since 1978 he had been the prime minister's adviser on the war against terrorism and was answerable to Begin. As head of Lakam, he was answerable to the defense minister. Eitan was forced to resign in the wake of the eruption in November 1985 of the Jonathan Pollard affair (an intelligence officer in the U.S. Navy, Pollard was run as a spy by Lakam for a year and a half).
Eitan's dual role gave Chaim Carmon more room for maneuver, and his position as chief security officer of the Defense Ministry, combined with his seniority, made Carmon one of the strongest, most influential and most feared officials in the defense establishment. His status was further enhanced by the relations of trust he cultivated with the head of the Shin Bet at the time, Avraham Shalom. The two knew each other from the period in which Carmon worked for the Shin Bet's protection unit, whose staff were occasionally integrated into missions of the operations unit headed by Shalom. The two were on excellent terms and Carmon often took part, by virtue of his position, in meetings of the heads of branches and directors of units in the Shin Bet.

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Netanyahu provisionally supports Gaza plan
By Mazal Mualem, Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondents
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's associates Sunday expressed satisfaction with statements by Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, after he offered provisional support for the prime minister's disengagement plan.
Netanyahu was speaking at a meeting of Likud ministers and deputy ministers that Sharon convened.
Sharon's associates claimed that the conditions set by Netanyahu in exchange for his support of the disengagement plan, could be met. By contrast, a number of Likud ministers continue to oppose Sharon's separation plan. These include: Uzi Landau, Limor Livnat, Yisrael Katz, Tzachi Hanegbi, Limor Livnat, Dan Naveh, Natan Sharansky and Meir Sheetrit.
"Now that the train has already left the station there is no choice but to support the prime minister and present him with demands and conditions" for the withdrawal, Netanyahu told his Likud colleagues. "The public doesn't want to feel it has been suckered. It wants something in exchange for concessions.
Netanyahu conditioned his support for the separation plan on a U.S. announcement rejecting a right of return to Israel for Palestinian refugees. He said his support for Sharon's plan depended on the completion of the separation fence around West Bank settlement blocs. Netanyahu also demanded that security arrangements be formulated for the day after Israel leaves the Gaza Strip.
Netanyahu's statements did not surprise the prime minister. In fact, senior Likud politicians claimed Sunday that the conditions set forth by Netanyahu had been coordinated in advance with Sharon's office.
Likud Minister without portfolio Uzi Landau told reporters Sunday that Netanyahu's provisional support for Sharon's plan disappointed him. "I wanted to see him [Netanyahu] leading a movement" in opposition to the plan, Landau said. By Landau's count, Sharon's plan lacks support of a majority of cabinet members at this stage.
Agriculture and Rural Development Minister Yisrael Katz said after the meeting: "I have to say that this [Netanyahu's] approach is unacceptable in my view you can't say that the only thing left to do is to limit the damage."
Opening Sunday's Likud meeting, Sharon outlined the withdrawal alternative which he believes is Israel's best option - a pull-out from the entire Gaza Strip, apart from the Philadelphi road on the Egyptian border near Rafah, and a limited dismantling of some West Bank settlements.
Expounding on his conditions at Sunday's Likud meeting, Netanyahu said all border crossings - air, sea, and land - should remain under Israeli control until a final status is worked out with the Palestinians. He insisted the separation fence must wrap around the settlement town of Ariel, Route 443, Ma'aleh Adumim, Gush Etzion and other settlement blocs. Until the fence protects these areas, Netanyahu said, "Israel should not withdraw from one centimeter of the Gaza Strip."
When Netanyahu spoke about "not rewarding terror," Industry and Trade Minister Ehud Olmert interrupted. "You always bring up that nonsense," Olmert declared, challenging Netanyahu. "I want to remind you that after the Western Wall Tunnel events [in 1996] you traveled to Washington, embraced Arafat, and said you had found a friend."
Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom will meet on Monday in Washington with top U.S. officials and hear their response to the separation plan.

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Analysis / Netanyahu's `yes, but' approach
By Yossi Verter
Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's "yes and no" speech yesterday at the Likud Party meeting came as no surprise to cabinet ministers who oppose Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's separation plan. During the 13 months of the government's operation, Netanyahu has studiously refrained from taking any move that could be interpreted as a challenge to Sharon's policy directives.
In fact a kind of unholy alliance has taken hold between the two men - Sharon has provided absolute support for Netanyahu's economic policies, and the finance minister has displayed silent loyalty to Sharon on the diplomatic-political track. And this alliance has become perhaps the sturdiest pillar of stability for the Sharon government.
It will take more than a Gaza pullout to force Netanyahu to risk a full frontal clash with Sharon. After all, the Gaza pullout is backed by a strong public majority, and also by a majority of Likud members.
Should Sharon return from his trip to the U.S. with Bush administration consent to conditions imposed on the Gaza pullout, Netanyahu will publicize this linkage as a personal triumph. He will claim it was only his tough talk with the Americans that saved Israel from an unconditional flight from Gaza.
On the other hand, should Sharon come back from the U.S. empty-handed, it will be seen as Sharon's failure alone.
So, as things are now stacked up, Netanyahu reaps a double profit. One the one hand, he gets credit for being loyal to Sharon. On the other hand, Sharon's status is likely to take a beating in various public sectors, and somebody stands to gain from it.
It can be assumed that deep in his heart Netanyahu will not mourn should Sharon ram through the government approval for a Gaza withdrawal, or even a withdrawal from Gaza and some West Bank areas. During his term as finance minister, Netanyahu has learned a thing or two about the connection between the peace process and economic prosperity.
Yesterday, none of Netanyahu's Likud colleagues had a single good thing to say about him. Opponents of the separation plan who expected Netanyahu to voice categorical criticism of the Gaza withdrawal policy were deeply disappointed by the finance minister: none of them yesterday embraced the conditions which Netanyahu claimed must be fulfilled before the plan is to be supported. Proponents of the separation plan, particularly Ehud Olmert, didn't waste the opportunity to mock Netanyahu. That's what happens to those who tiptoe through the rain - they get wet.
Netanyahu believes his plan to supplement Sharon's policy will win supporters. He believes that only his program can stop Likud from splitting at the seams.
Eyes in Likud will now turn to Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, who would seem to have nowhere to position himself. Olmert has come out firmly for the withdrawal plan. Netanyahu has found his supplementary formula. What is left for Shalom to do? Oppose the plan? He can't plausibly oppose the separation plan because it is Sharon's major diplomatic initiative, and he is foreign minister.
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Tennenbaum's lawyer says latest remand will be the last
By Yossi Melman
The Petah Tikva Magistrate's Court yesterday extended Elhanan Tennenbaum's yesterday for seven days, until next Sunday. Tennenbaum's attorney, Roi Blecher, said this was the last time he would agree to keeping Tennenbaum in custody. Tennenbaum's lawyers said the same thing when his remand was extended last week.
Tennenbaum, a businessman and Israel Defense Forces reserve colonel who was released by Hezbollah in January in a prisoner exchange deal with Israel, is being held in the Neurim police facility in Netanya. From there, he is brought for daily questioning to the police's international investigations unit in Petah Tikva, where police are trying to determine the circumstances of his capture.
Police representative Yaron Aram said at yesterday's remand hearing that Tennenbaum's request to be questioned under hypnosis is being considered, so that his memory will be refreshed regarding details he says he does not remember. Aram said police were discussing the issue with the Health Ministry. The final decision rests with the head of the international investigations unit. Earlier, police sources said they doubted the request, which they called a public relations move, would be honored.
Police investigators said Tennenbaum isn't telling them the entire truth regarding affairs to which he is linked, including accusations of fraud from 1994.
Police say they have proof that could confirm suspicions that Tennenbaum is hiding from them information on his criminal activity. Police don't believe that Tennenbaum was not involved in drug dealing before his trip to Dubai, during which he said he planned to seek advice on how to smuggle drugs to Israeli ports.
According to an agreement Tennenbaum signed, the attorney general can try him if he is found to have lied about any crimes, whether or not they are related to security issues.
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Researchers say Tiberias basilica may have housed Sanhedrin
By Eli Ashkenazi
Antiquities Authority excavations in Tiberias may have uncovered the site of a structure used by the Sanhedrin, researchers believe. The excavations began in March in the central part of the city and in recent days have moved eastward toward route 90. The main finding in the new excavation area is a basilica structure.
Excavation director Prof. Yizhar Hirschfeld from Hebrew University of Jerusalem says the basilica, which was built during the third century C.E., could have been used by the Sanhedrin, which at the time was called Beit Hava'ad. Identical structures, such as one at Beit Sha'arim, were also used for judicial purposes. In Tiberias the site could have also be used for writing the Jerusalem Talmud, researchers believe.
Supporting theory
Prof. Aharon Oppenheimer, a historian from Tel Aviv University whose field of expertise is the Talmud-Mishna period, recently visited the Tiberias excavation and supports the theory that the basilica was the home of the Sanhedrin.
Archaeologists have in recent days also discovered a mosaic at the entry to the large bath house of Tiberias. Green and yellow hues in the work come from glass mosaic tiles; vines bearing fruit are drawn on the mosaic. Another mosaic discovered in the bath house during the 1950s was not preserved - it had pictures of animals (lions and elephants).
The archaeological team has also started to document dozens of stone doors, which were lined up along roads in the city. One theory holds that they were doors of family burial caves (doors were used for similar purposes at Beit Sha'arim).
Prof. Hirschfeld believes the caves were destroyed in a major earthquake in 363 C.E., and the stones remained as decorated pillars.
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Saudi reformers recoup after blow
Saudi authorities released five of a dozen detained activists, after they agreed to cease political activities.
By Faiza Saleh Ambah | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
JIDDAH, SAUDI ARABIA - Activists in Saudi Arabia are trying to continue on the path of political reform despite last week's detention of their top leaders, criticism from the government, and being labeled "a true enemy" by the country's highest religious authority.
Since the detentions, many Saudis who previously spoke freely have been reluctant to go on the record, fearing they, too, could be targeted by the authorities. But they have continued to meet in small groups and have gathered signatures for a petition in support of the detainees.
Of the dozen activists detained, at least five have been released after they signed a statement promising to not sign petitions calling for reform or talk to the media. Online newspaper Elaph said the remaining leaders were refusing to cooperate without legal representation, and that they would not be released until they signed a similar statement.
Some reformists see the detentions as a necessary crossroads for the reform movement and the Saudi leadership. "Now we must organize, organize, organize. Nothing comes without sacrifice. Rights are not handed out; they are taken," activist Sami Angawi says.
"The government has been in charge for 70 years and has done a good job. Now it's time for the people to participate. Everyone wants [the royal family] Al Saud to remain in power - they keep the country stable. But what we need now is not democracy but freedom - freedom to gather, to express ourselves, to discuss issues, and then advise the government," says Mr. Angawi, a member of the Council for the National Dialogue, a forum initiated by the government to encourage different sectors of society to communicate.
Several senior princes recently asked the detainees to slow down the speed and adjust the scope of their demands - and to present a unified front at a time when the country is wrestling with terrorism, activists say.
Saudi authorities have been waging a fierce battle against extremists linked to Al Qaeda since last May's suicide bombing at a housing compound in Riyadh. Despite dozens of arrests, shootouts, and discoveries of huge caches of weapons, the extremists hit again in November. More than 20 suspected Al Qaeda members are still on the run in Saudi Arabia. Just last week two suspected Al Qaeda members strapped with explosive-laden belts - on their way to carry out a suicide mission - were shot dead in downtown Riyadh by security forces.
At a Friday press conference with US Secretary of State Colin Powell in the capital, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal accused the detainees of seeking "dissension when the whole country was looking for unity and a clear vision, especially at a time when it is facing a terrorist threat."
Mr. Powell said he expressed concern over the detentions to the Saudi authorities during his stopover in Riyadh.
Writer Najeeb al-Khineizi, one of the released detainees, says the detention of the reformist leaders creates a void that could hurt the country.
"Silencing these moderate voices is not to the benefit of the authorities. Without this avenue, people will find different ways to express themselves, because change is inevitable," says Mr. Khineizi, who was banned from writing in Saudi newspapers a year ago. "We are not looking for radical solutions, but step-by-step movement. Stagnation is deadly to reform."
Khineizi says he was picked up by Saudi security at a coffe shop last Tuesday, and was released Thursday after he signed a statement under duress.
The government-controlled Saudi press, which has been freer and more critical over the past two years during the reform initiative, remained silent about the arrests, publishing only official statements.
Sunday's al-Hayat newspaper published an interview with grand mufti Abdul-Aziz al-Sheik condemning the detainees. "Those who cast doubt on the nation's leadership ... are the true enemies even if they call for reform," the paper quoted Mr. Sheik as saying.
On Saturday, Saudi Arabia's National Human Rights Association, set up earlier this month by the government, issued a statement saying it was looking into the matter of the detainees. The head of the association, Abdullah al-Obeid, told the Okaz daily that Saudi authorities "are entitled by law to arrest anyone for questioning."
Lawyer Abdul-Aziz al-Qassim, who helped write several of the petitions, says the arrests should have been expected and would not hurt the reform movement. "A lot of change was going on in a short period of time," he says. "People were sending petitions and talking out in the open and meeting in public, and this was not common before."
Qassim says he expects the reformers to continue to work toward change. Yet, now that they know where the red lines are, they would operate "at a slower pace and in a more quiet manner."
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www.csmonitor.com |Copyright ? 2004
Saudis round up reformers
Petitioners arrested this week after stating intention to form a human rights group.
By Faiza Saleh Ambah | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
JEDDAH, SAUDI ARABIA - Saudi authorities continued with a third day of detentions Wednesday with the arrest of lawyer Abdul-Rahman al-Lahem, as defiant activists called for the release of all those arrested.
The sudden and sweeping detention of democratic activists comes at a time when Saudi Arabia has taken steps towards political reforms, allowing a freer and more critical press, announcing the first municipal elections in October, and setting up a human rights organization earlier this month.
"It's an extraordinary step backward in respect to the several moves forward they've taken," says a senior US government official.
"This is a surprise. These men [who were detained] had met with Crown Prince Abdullah and [Interior Minister] Prince Nayef and had open and pleasant discussions about reforms," says writer and activist Turki al-Hamad.
After the Sept. 11 attacks, Saudi Arabia has come under pressure from the United States to implement democratic reforms, which Washington sees as a deterrent to extremism and intolerance. The first widespread detentions since political freedoms became a pressing topic in Saudi Arabia following the Sept. 11 attacks are a blow to the country's reform movement, analysts say.
The arrests are an attempt by the government to put a brake on the country's burgeoning reform movement and to show that they control it, says Saudi writer Tawfiq al-Saif.
"This is a message from the authorities that says, 'no one can impose demands on us.' We decide ourselves on the pace and scope of the reforms, and no one else should interfere," says Mr. Saif.
The trigger for the arrests, he says, was a letter sent several weeks ago to the Saudi crown prince informing him of the group's intention to set up an independent human rights organization.
The group had defied a ban on public gatherings and decided at a meeting of more than 30 Saudis at a Riyadh hotel last month that it was time to stop talking, says Saif, who was in close touch with them. "We had written many petitions and it was decided that we should move into the next phase of taking action," he says.
The sweep of arrests started Monday night in the port city of Jiddah, followed by arrests Tuesday in the capital, Riyadh, and the Eastern Province. Those arrested include several university professors, a lawyer, a poet, and a number of writers who were picked up from either their homes or their workplaces, according to family members.
A statement by the Interior Ministry late Monday confirmed the arrests but did not give details. The men were "detained for questioning regarding petitions they issued which do not serve the country's unity and the cohesion of society based on Islamic law," the statement said.
Reformists in Saudi Arabia have been increasingly active over the past year, sending five petitions to the government demanding wide-ranging political and economic reforms. In a petition signed in December, 116 people sought the transformation of Saudi Arabia into a constitutional monarchy. Last month more than 800 people, including more than 100 women, asked for an elected parliament and a greater role for women.
Political parties and political gatherings are not allowed in Saudi Arabia, and women are not allowed to work alongside men, travel without permission of a male guardian, drive a car, or appear in public unveiled.
Activists also want more transparency and accountability from the royal family, whose members control the country's purse strings and hold major government posts.
The efforts in Saudi Arabia take place against the backdrop of the recently launched US "Greater Middle East Initiative." Washington is calling for major economic and political reforms. But it has met with resistance from Arab leaders in the region. Thursday, US Secretary of State Colin Powell is scheduled to visit Kuwait, and told Reuters that he's looking forward to "a dialogue over...the issues of reform in Kuwait, the Arab world and the Middle East." Kuwait's Prime Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah said on Tuesday that he backed political reforms in the Middle East but any changes should be homegrown and not dictated from outside.
Mr. Tayeb, Mr. Faleh, and Hamid, who have been spearheading the movement calling for faster and greater reforms, have all been previously detained for their political activism - but this was the first time the government has moved against them in recent years.
Mr. Lahem was called in for questioning after he appeared on Al Jazeera satellite television and criticized as illegal the arrest of some of the country's top political activists, he told the Monitor by cellphone on his way to the Saudi security offices.
There were reports of the release of four activists Wednesday, but the reformist leaders, lawyer and publisher Mohammad Saeed Tayeb and academics Matrouk al-Faleh and Abdullah al-Hamed were still behind bars at press time. The exact number of detainees could not be verified, but reformists say that a total of 11 people have been arrested.
Meanwhile activists were gathering signatures for a petition to the country's newly formed, government-appointed human rights group asking for their intervention. They also requested a meeting with the country's defacto ruler, Crown Prince Abdullah, and Prince Nayef, to ask for the release of the detainees, says Saudi writer Abdullah al-Sharif, who is involved with the petition and the request for the royal audience.
"If the human rights group is serious, they have to prove themselves now," says Mr. Sharif.
An officer at the Interior Ministry called Tayeb Monday night and told him he was wanted for questioning before sending a car several minutes later, his wife Faiga Badr says. Tayeb "called me at two in the morning and told me to be strong and he asked me to pack a small bag for him with his medicine and clothes," Mrs. Badr says. "Tuesday he called and asked me to send him lunch. I haven't heard from him since," she says.
* Staff writer Faye Bowers contributed to this report from Washington.

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China silent on evidence it played key role in Khan's nuke network
Special to World Tribune.com
EAST-ASIA-INTEL.COM
Saturday, March 20, 2004
A Q KhanMian Khursheed/Reuters
Beijing is refusing to comment on documents found in Libya linking China to Tripoli's covert nuclear program.
Documents found in Libya as part of a disarmament plan revealed that China has supplied information on nuclear weapons design. The documents concerned the nuclear supplier group led by Pakistani chief scientist A.Q. Khan.
According to U.S. intelligence, China supplied Pakistan with design information for Islamabad's nuclear weapons. U.S. intelligence agencies have obtained exact details of the Chinese design, which is based on stolen U.S. nuclear weapons secrets.
A Chinese government spokesman declined to answer questions last week when asked about the Chinese-language documents found in Libya. "I don't have the specifics about the document you mentioned," the spokesman said.
Meanwhile, China and Pakistan have concluded an agreement for Beijing to sell Pakistan a second nuclear power plant at Chasma.
The United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency determined that a UAE company served as the hub for the traffic of nuclear weapons components. Officials said the company coordinated with a range of nuclear suppliers for orders from such countries as Iran, Libya and North Korea.
The Bush administration identified the UAE firm as SMB Computers, a key element in the nuclear weapons black market operated by Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan. The company was found to have served as a clearinghouse for nuclear components ordered by Iran, Libya and North Korea.
The public confession on Feb. 4 by Khan - the "father" of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program - in which he admitted to facilitating the network, has shocked the world and prompted new warnings that terrorists could gain access to weapons of mass destruction.
"The supply network will grow, making it easier to acquire nuclear weapon expertise and materials," IAEA director-general Mohammed El Baradei wrote in the New York Times on Feb. 12. "Eventually, inevitably, terrorists will gain access to such materials and technology, if not actual weapons."
"Khan and his associates," a White House fact sheet said, "used a factory in Malaysia to manufacture key parts for centrifuges, and purchased other necessary parts through network operatives based in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Libya, Iran, and North Korea were customers of the Khan network, and several other countries expressed an interest in Khan's services."
The company was said to have processed orders for such goods as uranium hexafluoride - used for the centrifuge process that can produce enriched uranium for nuclear bombs - as well as components and complete centrifuges.
SMB was operated by a deputy of Khan. Officials said the deputy, identified as Bukhari Sayed Abu Tahir, a Sri Lankan native, employed his Dubai company as the front for the nuclear network that sought to provide up to 1,000 centrifuges to Libya.
The nuclear network, which was said to have been penetrated by the CIA, contained companies and people from both Western and Third World countries, officials said. They included Belgium, China, Germany, Japan, Malaysia, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Switzerland, the UAE and the United Arab Emirates.






Analysts now doubt group's claim for Madrid bombing
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Friday, March 19, 2004
LONDON - Western intelligence analysts doubt the credibility of a purported Al Qaida group that has threatened new attacks in Europe.
Yigal Carmon, president of the Washington-based Middle East Media Research Institute and counter-terrorism adviser to three prime ministers, said the Abu Hafs statement does not represent Al Qaida.
"The text of this statement includes linguistic usages and concepts that are incompatible with or alien to authentic Al Qaida writings by Osama Bin Laden, Dr. Ayman Al Zawahiri, and others," Carmon wrote in an analysis.
The analysts said the Abu Hafs Al Masri Brigade appears to be a fictitious organization that could represent part of Al Qaida's psychological warfare campaign against the West. They said Abu Hafs has taken responsibility for non-existent attacks and that its communiques don't bear Al Qaida's imprint.
Abu Hafs has claimed responsibility for the Madrid train bombings on March 11 in which 202 people were killed. On Thursday, the London-based Al Quds Al Arabi daily released another statement by Abu Hafs that warned of additional attacks.
"Our brigades are getting ready now for the coming strike," Abu Hafs said in a statement dated March 15. "Whose turn will it be next? Is it Japan, America, Italy, Britain, Saudi Arabia or Australia?"
Western intelligence agencies have assessed that the Madrid train bombings were the work of Al Qaida-inspired insurgency groups from Morocco. Officials said they have determined a link between the strikes in Madrid and the suicide bombings in Casablanca in May 2003.
Abu Hafs has claimed responsibility for the November 2003 suicide attacks in Istanbul as well as an earlier bombing of United Nations headquarters in Baghdad. But the analysts said those suspected of carrying out the Istanbul attacks did not report any link to Abu Hafs, the communiques of which have also been signed "Al Qaida."
The analysts said the most puzzling aspect of Abu Hafs was its offer to end Al Qaida attacks in Europe. Abu Hafs said it was suspending attacks in Spain to allow its new socialist government to honor a pledge to withdraw from Iraq. Abu Hafs said it also supports the re-election campaign of President George Bush.
"We change and destroy countries," the statement said. "We even influence the international economy, and this is God's blessing to us."
On Thursday, Abu Hafs posted a purported Al Qaida statement on an Islamic website that pledged to avenge the killing of Khaled Ali Haj in Riyad on Monday. Ali Haj was identified as Al Qaida's operations chief for the Gulf region and responsible for suicide strikes on foreign compounds in Riyad during 2003.
The Abu Hafs warnings were among a plethora of statements purportedly by Al Qaida cells posted on Islamic websites over the last few months. In December 2003, Global Islamic Media warned of an imminent Islamic attack on the United States called Operation Cave of Darkness. In a departure from Al Qaida's previous communiques, the website demanded the return of gold to Islamic insurgents and the restoration of borders of Arab and Islamic states.
Another Islamic website, www.khayma.com., predicted the collapse of the United States. But the style of the communique was determined as being different from Al Qaida statements and most intelligence analysts dismissed the warning as fraudulent.
Meanwhile, a European Commission report criticized implementation of European Union agreements to battle insurgency groups and called for a database of criminal records on insurgents throughout the continent. The report also called on EU states to honor orders to seize bank assets of Al Qaida-inspired insurgents.
"It is essential in the fight against terrorism for the relevant services to have the fullest and most up-to-date information possible in their respective fields, including information on convictions," the report said.



Report: Spaniard Led Suspects to Dynamite
By DANIEL WOOLLS
Associated Press Writer
Woolls reports the Spanish man who reportedly led the four Moroccan men to the explosives used in the train attack reportedly met them in a bar. (Audio)
MADRID, Spain (AP) -- A Spaniard with a criminal record led four Moroccans to an explosives warehouse at a mine to steal dynamite used in the Madrid terror bombings, a newspaper reported Saturday.
The unidentified Spaniard, a former miner in the northern Asturias region, was among five people arrested Thursday. He insisted he only led the Moroccans to the warehouse and did not help with the robbery or know the Moroccans had Islamic extremist links, El Pais reported, quoting police sources.
The Spaniard has a record for drug and weapons possession, the newspaper said. The Moroccans remain at large and have not been identified, it added.
Interior Ministry officials could not be reached to comment on the report.
The March 11 train bombings killed 202 people and wounded more than 1,800, making it Spain's deadliest terrorist attack. A total of 160 people remain hospitalized, four of them in critical condition, the Madrid regional health service said Saturday.
Ten suspects are in custody. Suspicion has centered on Moroccan extremists said to be linked to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida group, which carried out the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States.
In a videotape, a man claiming to speak on behalf of al-Qaida said the group carried out the attack in reprisal for Spain's backing of the U.S.-led war in Iraq.
The Spaniard arrested in Asturias told police he had met the four Moroccans in January in a bar in the Lavapies district of Madrid, El Pais said.
That's where one suspect, Jamal Zougam, had a cellular telephone store to which police have traced a cell phone found attached to a bomb that failed to explode.
The Moroccans told the Spaniard they ran a mine in Morocco but had trouble obtaining explosives. The Spaniard offered to help them get dynamite, and in return was apparently given drugs, El Pais said.
The Spaniard met with the Moroccans in the Asturian town of Aviles in late February and led them to an explosives warehouse at a mine, the report said. The explosives were stolen on or about Feb. 29, the paper said.
The Spaniard was arrested Thursday in Aviles, El Pais said. Four Moroccans were also arrested Thursday outside Madrid.
Police think all or part of the estimated 220 pounds of dynamite used in the Madrid bombings came from that warehouse, the paper said.
On Friday, a Spanish judge jailed Zougam and two other Moroccans on 190 counts of murder. That reflects the number of bodies identified so far. Two Indians were jailed on charges of collaborating with a terrorist group. All five suspects were arrested two days after the bombings.
The judge's order stops short of a formal indictment and means the suspects can be held for up to two years while police gather more evidence.
Intelligence chiefs from Spain, France, Britain, Germany and Italy were to meet Monday in Madrid to discuss the threat of terrorism in Europe.
Many Spaniards have accused the Spain's conservative government of provoking the rail bombings by supporting the Iraq war. The ruling Popular Party fell in a surprise defeat by the Socialists in general elections on March 14.
Thousands of Spaniards took part Saturday in rallies in Madrid, Barcelona and other cities to protest the war on the first anniversary of its opening salvos.
Zougam and the other four were held in solitary confinement, with no access to lawyers or news, until their interrogation began Thursday night. The newspaper El Mundo reported Saturday that the first thing Zougam asked the judge was who had won the election.
Also Saturday, the Socialist Party said the man expected to be Spain's next foreign minister, Miguel Angel Moratinos, told U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell Friday that the incoming government was firm in its plan to withdraw the 1,300 Spanish troops stationed in Iraq unless the United Nations takes charge there.
Copyright 2004 Associated Press. All rights reserved.
Purchase this AP story for Reprint


U.S. warns imminent attack
may target airliners, ships
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Satuday, March 20, 2004
ABU DHABI - The United States has warned its nationals to be on alert for a major attack in the Middle East.
The State Department has issued an announcement that warned of an attack on civilian passenger jets in the Middle East. The announcement said Al Qaida-aligned groups could be planning strikes against U.S. interests in the region.
"Credible information has indicated terrorist groups may be planning attacks against U.S. interests in the Middle East," the department said Friday.
"Terrorist actions may include suicide operations, bombings, hijackings or kidnappings. These attacks may involve aviation, ground transportation and maritime interests. While conventional weapons such as explosive devices are a more immediate threat in many areas, use of non-conventional weapons, including chemical or biological agents must be considered a possible threat."
This was the first U.S. warning to citizens in the Middle East since Nov. 6, 2003 and included the Red Sea, Persian Gulf, the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa. The department pointed to an increase in security around U.S. military and diplomatic installations, which could result in the targeting of civilian sites.
"Increased security at official U.S. facilities has led terrorists and their sympathizers to seek softer targets such as public transportation, residential areas, and public areas where people congregate," the statement said.
The statement said U.S. nationals in the Middle East and North Africa face anti-American sentiment as well as the risk of attack. The department urged Americans to maintain a high level of vigilance and increase their security awareness.
On Saturday, U.S. Central Command chief Gen. John Abizaid held talks in Sanaa with Yemeni leaders. The talks were said to have focused on military and security cooperation.

Posted by maximpost at 1:31 AM EST
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>> WMD SEARCH? WHERE?

SPEAKING FREELY
N Korea's nukes - planted right under the DMZ?
By Michael G Gallagher

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.

SEOUL - The Beijing talks over North Korea's nuclear-weapons program ended inconclusively, and among the many issues those talks failed to resolve was one question that has probably bedeviled US and South Korean military strategists for years: Exactly where is the shadowy North Korean regime hiding its still tiny nuclear (one hopes) arsenal?

The answer might be lying quietly in a tunnel right underneath the feet of the American and South Korean soldiers guarding the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that separates the democratic South from the Stalinist North.

Digging under an enemy's position to outflank his defenses is an age-old military tactic. King Ashurnasirpal II of Assyria (circa 880 BC) used tunneling as a tactic to undermine an opponent's fortifications. Using iron tools, his soldiers would excavate a chamber under an enemy's walls, then brace its roof with timber supports. The wooden supports were then burned, causing the chamber and the structure above it to collapse. Both Alexander the Great and Julius Caesar used mining in their many campaigns.

Readers may be familiar with a more recent example of military mining if they have seen the American Civil War drama Cold Mountain. In one of the movie's pivotal scenes, the Union forces during the siege of Petersburg try, and fail, to blow a hole through the Confederate trench line with a huge gunpowder mine.

Viet Minh planted tunnel bomb under Dien Bien Phu
Mining as an active military tactic was used as late as the mid-20th century. In 1954, during the final assault on the French positions at Dien Bien Phu, the Viet Minh attackers exploded a one-ton TNT (2,4,6-trinitrotoluene) mine under the French stronghold, Elaine 2. While the mine failed to explode completely, the partial detonation was still a grave psychological blow to Dien Bien Phu's isolated defenders.

Planning to blow up the enemy's position from below went nuclear during the Cold War. Both the United States and the old Soviet Union had nuclear land mines. One type of atomic land mine fielded by the US military was SADM - special atomic demolition munition. Weighing 163 pounds, or 73 kilograms, SADM had an explosive yield of up to one kiloton. It was part of the US nuclear arsenal from 1966 until 1986.

So it is entirely plausible that the North Koreans have placed one or more nuclear land mines under the DMZ. This possibility is made even more likely by the fact that the North Koreans are among the world's champion diggers.

Between 1974 and 1990, four tunnels were discovered running underneath the DMZ. These tunnels had electric lights, railroad tracks and turnarounds for vehicles. One tunnel even had a small underground plaza in which troops could be marshaled in formation. The tunnels were large enough to allow the infiltration of up to 30,000 troops per hour, including tanks and artillery, into South Korean territory. Some South Korean analysts say there may be at least 20 more tunnels as yet undiscovered.

Kim Il-sung ordered underground hideaways
Burrowing deep underground was the brainchild of the founder of the North Korean state, the late dictator Kim Il-sung. At one point during his rule he apparently ordered that each Korean People's Army division stationed along the DMZ should dig at least two tunnels. Apart from the already mentioned tunnels boring under the DMZ, North Korea might have anywhere from 11,000-14,000 other underground hideaways.

Planting a nuclear bomb in a tunnel under the DMZ would be a cheap and effective delivery system for a poverty-stricken country such as North Korea. Buried bombs would also be an almost foolproof backup system for what may be a marginally successful missile-development program.

In 1998, North Korea flew a Taepongdo-1 long-range ballistic missile over Japan. While it sowed alarm in Seoul, Washington and Tokyo, the test itself was only a partial success, with the rocket's third stage failing to ignite properly. Another weapon, the shorter-range Nodong missile, had only one successful test launch during the 1990s. In 2003, the North Koreans conducted two additional missile tests, but these involved short-range, anti-shipping cruise missiles, weapons that posed no strategic threat to the United States and its Asian allies.

Controlling a tunnel bomb would be very simple. During the 1950s, the British government initiated the Blue Peacock project to build nuclear land mines. Products of the Cold War, Blue Peacock mines were to be buried along the projected wartime invasion routes for Russian tanks into what was then West Germany. The classified - its existence wasn't revealed until last July - Blue Peacock project was eventually canceled because of insurmountable environmental and political problems. Still, one aspect of Blue Peacock should alarm anybody who is worried about nuclear-armed moles lurking under the DMZ.

Vengeance from beyond the grave
Blue Peacock mines would have had two methods of detonation: one method was detonation by wire from as far as five kilometers away; the other technique for exploding a Blue Peacock mine was to use a timer, which could have been set for up to eight days before firing. The idea of vengeance from beyond the grave would fit very well with the ultra-tough image the North Koreans often like to project.

Even the idea of a North Korean tunnel bomb, which could be shunted among an unknown number of locations, might be enough to wring some very expensive concessions from the US and its allies during any future talks with Pyongyang.

A North Korean tunnel bomb, if it exists, would also weaken the case of the US administration for the construction a national missile defense system. The threat of North Korea's ballistic-missile program is one of the White House's main rationales for building such a system. The revelation that Kim Jong-il had outfoxed the American neo-cons by mounting a bomb on a rickety, Soviet-era flatbed truck and driving it under the DMZ would cause loud cries of laughter among the opponents of a US missile defense system, not only in Washington, but also in other world capitals.

Michael G Gallagher, PhD, works at Namseoul University, South Korea.

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.

>> HUGGING PERVEZ 2...


Powell pleased, India perplexed
By Sultan Shahin

NEW DELHI - US Secretary of State Colin Powell couldn't help but be impressed during his just-concluded South Asia visit with the positive result of his efforts in the past two years to further peace between two nuclear neighbors, India and Pakistan. There is an extraordinary atmosphere of goodwill in the subcontinent with the resumption of official-level dialogue and confidence-building measures such as the resumption of travel, transport and, above all, cricketing ties.

But when the time came for the United States to distribute rewards for good behavior, India received a bit of a shock. Before Powell's visit, speculation in Delhi was about what rewards India - the peacemaker and responsible nuclear power - would be granted and what punishment Pakistan would receive for its mischief after the revelation that it had been proliferating weapons technology to so-called rogue nation Libya and the remaining members of the US-designated "axis of evil" - Iran and North Korea.

This isn't the way things panned out. It was the bad boy on the block who was rewarded, perhaps understandably so from the US point of view. After all, it is harder for the bad boys to reform. Pakistan has taken measures to stop infiltration of terrorists from its side of the Line of Control (LOC) that separates the Indian and Pakistani state of Jammu and Kashmir, promised to stop the nuclear-proliferation activities of its scientists. and is fighting the Taliban and al-Qaeda remnants within its borders.

But though Powell is mumbling a lot of sweet nothings, India is deeply disappointed. Instead of receiving a sharp rap on the knuckles, and a very well-deserved one too, the Pakistan military has been designated a major non-NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) military ally of the United States for the purpose of future military-to-military relations, facilitating its acquisition of military hardware and other goodies that were not available to Pakistan before. It will enhance military cooperation between the two countries dramatically. The tangible military benefits will include priority delivery of the US military's "excess defense articles".

Powell has assured India, however, that no decision had yet been made on selling F-16 aircraft to Pakistan. He has also said that the US is considering a similar relationship with India too.

Of course, India is rattled. Pakistan, though always a major non-NATO ally of the US, has now formally become part of a privileged group of countries that includes Australia, New Zealand, Israel, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Egypt and Argentina.

The timing of the move is very bad from the point of view of India's ruling party. One of the main planks in its re-election bid is the success it claims to have achieved in building close strategic ties with the United States. The special relationship with the sole superpower was an important part of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's "feel good" electoral package. The opposition will inevitably use this slight by the US to highlight the hollowness of the Indian government's claims.

To be fair, the United States is willing to reward India in a variety of ways as well. Washington has expressed a desire for India to participate in its controversial Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) and is beginning official-level discussions on how the Indian navy and air force can contribute to the US-led non-proliferation coalition established to stop "suspect" shipping on the high seas. The US is also trying to encourage Pakistan to bring about a permanent end to "cross-border violence" in Kashmir.

But the United States is also asking India to open up its markets further and outsource some of its services to the US, if it wants to continue to benefit from the outsourcing of US jobs to India. India's hopes that US President George W Bush's "Next Steps in the Strategic Partnership with India" would lead to easier access to US high technology have also been dashed. A senior US official stated recently that India would receive no substantial technology unless the US was satisfied that India had tightened export controls. The US had placed severe restrictions on the transfer of dual-use technologies, which have both civilian and military applications, to India after its 1974 nuclear tests.

Powell and the peace process
The first hiccup on the hitherto smooth peace process between India and Pakistan took place just a couple of days before Powell's visit. Vajpayee, who is seeking re-election nine months before it was due, was hoping to cash in on the peace process, which is immensely popular in the country - particularly among its 150 million Muslim population. The ruling Hindu fundamentalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is for the first time appealing for Muslim votes on the same ground.

But Pakistani President General General Pervez Musharraf once again emphasized the importance of Kashmir while addressing Indian strategic intellectuals through satellite. In his prepared speech last Saturday for an international conference organized by India Today magazine in New Delhi, Musharraf was more than explicit in restating his country's traditional position on Kashmir. In fact, the Pakistani president referred to Kashmir as the central issue of Indo-Pakistani relations a half-dozen times.

Musharraf also indicated that confidence-building measures would be held hostage depending on the progress of Kashmir, as recently happened in the case of official-level talks on resuming transport links between the Indian state of Rajasthan and the Pakistani state of Sindh. He made a thinly veiled call for the United States to broker a Kashmir solution if it really wants to dampen the fires of Islamic militancy. He even indirectly raised the United Nations plebiscite bogy, though he had himself discounted the possibility only a few months ago on the eve of the summit meeting of the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation held in Islamabad.

This is certainly not the first time Musharraf has changed his tune. Some observers have, however, blamed "provocative questioning" on the part of Indian strategic thinkers for his "combative demeanor". He is known to behave more like the trained commando that he essentially is than like a diplomat when under pressure. Indians wanted him to clarify his stand on Kashmir. He felt that Indians were implying that he was unnecessarily raising the Kashmir issue and, if so, they were divorced from the reality on the ground. Even if he himself wanted to, he said, he could not change the fact that Kashmir was the main dispute between India and Pakistan.

Musharraf may have wanted to pass a message to the United States as well. He may have wanted both India and the US not to be beguiled by the largely successful progress of peace talks and the general atmosphere of extraordinary bonhomie on the subcontinent with growing people-to-people contacts. The gentlemanly cricketing behavior of spectators of both the Karachi and Peshawar one-day matches has indeed earned a large measure of goodwill for Pakistan in India. Indian cricketers too appear to have won the hearts of Pakistani cricket fans, as per the advice of the Indian prime minister, who had specifically asked them to win not only matches but also Pakistani hearts. But Musharraf apparently doesn't want anyone to become too mesmerized by the goodwill generated by recent events and forget about Kashmir.

Not that anyone in India is enthralled by the peace atmospherics or Musharraf's promises. Indian forces are on alert as melting snow on the LOC eases the possibility of militant infiltration. Security officials in Jammu and Kashmir have constantly remained doubtful about Pakistan's commitment to completely end infiltration.

A senior army intelligence official told Asia Times Online that the real test of the promise of peace begins now that melting snow has opened up new routes for terrorist groups to replenish and reinforce their cadre in the state. Only two terrorists infiltrated in the month of February, but the figure was the same last year too, he said.

He was also hopeful, however, because infiltration would have begun picking up from the beginning of March in the absence of any peace initiative as had happened last year. The army did detect two simultaneous infiltration attempts on the night of March 3. Three of four terrorists who had come across from the Poonch district were killed, while one escaped. The forces recovered two AK rifles, currency and three cameras. The second attempt took place in Rajouri district near Thana Mandi. The security forces killed both terrorists belonging to the Lashkar-e-Taiba. Two AK rifles, currency, medicines and a radio set were recovered.

Only three groups were detected while attempting to enter the state from Pakistan until Monday, and eight militants belonging to them were killed. Two militants of a group trying to leave Kashmir and return to Pakistan were also intercepted and killed while trying to cross the border. Only if infiltration does indeed remain down in the coming weeks compared with previous years, one may be able to conclude that the Pakistani government is keeping its word. So far the prognostication is not bad.

From the remarks made by Powell, it is clear that the US too is watching the situation very carefully. Powell said in Delhi he would speak to Musharraf about taking action against terrorist camps. The dismantling of terrorist infrastructure from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir is a long-standing Indian demand. On whether Pakistan had taken steps to dismantle terrorist training camps, he said one of the "essential elements" of the recent agreement between India and Pakistan was an end to cross-border violence. Saying he was "pleased" that activity across the LOC had come down significantly, Powell added that he hoped it would stay that way. "We, of course, will be watching as the spring season approaches," he said, aware of Indian concerns about renewed infiltration once the snows melt.

Addressing a joint press conference with Indian External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha, Powell said he would also speak to Musharraf about "any involvement" of past Pakistani governments in nuclear proliferation, or anything "contemporary" in nature relating to what Washington refers to as the "A Q Khan network". Asked whether his comment that no decision had been made on selling F-16s to Pakistan reflected a shift in the Bush administration's position, Powell said: "My comment over here was that we have to take into consideration any requests that are made of us; but no decisions have been made with respect to any particular military package, especially F-16s." He said last year's US$3 billion economic aid package for Pakistan did not include F-16s.

Another area of major concern for India was what the US was doing to ensure that Pakistan was not able to continue its nuclear-proliferation activities. About the "role" of the Pakistani government in nuclear proliferation, Powell said: "We certainly know the role played by Dr [Abdul Qadeer] Khan for some time now ... We are pleased that Dr Khan has acknowledged what he has done and we are pleased that we are getting a great deal of information from Pakistani authorities as a result of their interrogation of Dr Khan and his associates." He said the "Khan network" was "being broken up", making it clear that more had to be done. "I think we have had a real breakthrough with what Dr Khan has acknowledged and our ability to roll up different parts of the network. We cannot be satisfied till the entire network is gone - branch and root."

Powell said he was confident that if Musharraf was determined to get to the heart of this network, then the residual elements could be dealt with. "With respect to who else was involved ... in past Pakistani governments or anything ... contemporary in nature, I will speak to President Musharraf about this," he said. "There is much more work to be done."

Meanwhile, Powell said he had had a "good discussion" with Sinha on Indian participation in the PSI. Stating that the US wanted India to participate in the security initiative, Powell said officials of the two countries would now discuss the issue. Meanwhile, according to Sinha, there was no discussion on India signing the International Atomic Energy Agency's Additional Protocol to curb nuclear proliferation. It was originally feared that the US would pressure India to sign.

Despite disappointment in India across the board, particularly on account of Pakistan being officially designated a major non-NATO ally of the US, some Indian observers are willing to take a more charitable view. The major newspaper Indian Express, for instance, commented in an editorial written before the announcement about Pakistan's new status: "What we need to remember is that the core interests of India and the US converge across a whole range of issues. But it would be unrealistic to believe that there will be no differences. There is a need, therefore, to ensure that divergences of perceptions, interests and policies between the two countries are also managed in a mature fashion as much as the convergences are taken forward from strength to strength. For example, unsolicited 'advice' from the US State Department on missile testing by India, when actually it was Pakistan that had tested missiles imported clandestinely, is not very helpful. Nor for that matter would equating outsourcing with the omnibus mantra of opening up the economy. In this context, Powell's reassurances to India on outsourcing are most welcome."

(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)

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Pakistan as a 'key non-NATO ally'
By Ehsan M Ahrari

US Secretary of State Colin Powell brought good news to Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf on Thursday. The United States will elevate its military relationship with Pakistan as a major ally outside of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). That is the ultimate reward for Musharraf's willingness not only to do a lot of heavy lifting to capture or kill the top al-Qaeda leadership, but also for risking the very stability of his country by getting so close to Washington. But risks for Pakistan might not be as heady as they appear at a glance. For India and China, the elevation of Pakistan by the Bush administration poses new questions.

From the vantage point of domestic politics in Pakistan, Musharraf's "never say no" attitude toward the United States' demands regarding its global "war on terrorism" is not likely to win him many friends. However, that is not to say that anti-Americanism is on the rise in Pakistan. The March 17 findings of the Pew Research Center underscore that America's image in Pakistan, Turkey and Russia has improved from its last survey of May 2003. As a general principle, a majority of Pakistanis are showing their revulsion against what al-Qaeda and its cohorts inside their own country represent. However, Musharraf still has to worry about the Islamists of his country and their commitment to Osama bin Laden's world view and to his primacy of jihad. Those Islamists have enough clout to cause ample trouble in certain sections of Pakistan. In addition, they will continue their anti-government and terrorist activities, including carrying out further assassination plots.

Pakistan's elevation as a key non-NATO ally by the administration of US President George W Bush is a diplomatic coup de theatre for the Musharraf government. From the perspectives of regional politics, Pakistan is likely to get special access to conventional weapons of all sophistication from the United States. For now, one can speculate that Pakistan will get the same treatment as Israel, Egypt, or Jordan. But in reality, Pakistan would do well if it could be treated on par with Egypt. No key ally of the US will be treated with the kind of generosity in the realms of economic and military assistance as Israel has been receiving from Washington since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.

Even in agreeing to go along with President Bush's recommendations for the transfer of weapons to Pakistan in the coming months, the US Congress will insist on heightened transparency from Islamabad regarding its nuclear-proliferation activities, and complete information on the nuclear-proliferation-related activities of Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan. That is an issue that will not go away for Musharraf.

India, China watch carefully
By elevating Pakistan as a key ally, the US will be forced to conduct a constant balancing act vis-a-vis its strategic partnership with India. That partnership has grown considerably and is not about to be unraveled, barring unforeseen mishaps. There is little doubt that New Delhi will apply its own behind-the-scenes pressure on Washington to elevate its own special strategic status further under the new circumstances. How far the US is willing to go in terms of accommodating India's strategic predilections will be determined by who is occupying the White House in January 2005. The global "war on terrorism" under John Kerry is not likely to take up as much of his energy as it has Bush's, barring no further terrorist incident in the United States. Thus, under a Kerry administration, India might enjoy a slight edge over Pakistan. More substantially, Washington's job of balancing the interests of India and Pakistan will be considerably easy if both South Asian nations succeed in keeping their mutual ties steady and free of tensions leading to a potential war.

China is certainly scratching its head over the implications of Pakistan's newly elevated strategic status for its own ties with that country. In the short run, Sino-Pakistani ties are not likely to be affected. However, in the long run - especially if Islamabad were to get even more economic and military benefits from Washington - the traditional Sino-Indian strategic rivalry might be revisited by Beijing and Delhi. There is little doubt that if Pakistan were to accrue the kind of military and economic payoffs that it expects to get from Washington, the strategic balance in South Asia will undergo a noteworthy mutation. Such a transformation would not be welcomed by New Delhi or Beijing, for different reasons.

India will not be appreciative of any changes in Pakistan's status in conventional arms. That is an area where India has assiduously built up its own superiority for the past 40 years. Beijing, for its part, does not want to lose Pakistan as a key partner in keeping India off balance in the Sino-Indian rivalry. Unbeknownst to Washington, by elevating Pakistan's status as a key ally, it has started a new era of strategic realignment, or at least a major reassessment toward a potential realignment. All in all, such a reassessment is not at all unwelcome, especially since it guarantees the role of the United States as a long-term balancer in South Asia.

Ehsan Ahrari, PhD, is an Alexandria, Virginia, US-based independent strategic analyst.

(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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>> FORGET SCOMI?

Malaysia's rulers poised for election victory
By Anil Netto

PENANG, Malaysia - Just a day left before polling day on March 21 and all indications are that Malaysia's ruling Barisan Nasional (BN, or National Front) coalition is poised for a comfortable victory. Political analysts predict that the coalition will have no problem retaining its commanding majority in parliament.

By all accounts, it has been a quiet and uneventful election campaign so far. Missing is the fever that election ceramahs (small public political gatherings) used to generate. The BN has exploited its control of the media to the hilt. It has also overrun the country with a public relations offensive that bears the mark of an intensive advertising campaign.

From billboards and television to radio and newspapers, the themes are the same. The tag line on the numerous ads resembles that of a cigarette ad: "Barisan Nasional: Excellence, Glory, Distinction."

The PR boys for the BN have been busy. The ads have consistently hammered home the message: Only the BN can bring peace and stability; vote BN for development and so on. There are slight variations, but that is the underlying theme.

Faced with this advertising onslaught, along with the lopsided pro-BN media coverage, the average Malaysian could be forgiven for thinking this is an election without any major issues. And that is exactly what the BN and the mainstream media under their spell want the voters to believe.

The mainstream media have contributed to the BN campaign by telling voters that the only real choice they face is a country under BN rule or "extremism". This plays into the fears largely prevalent among the non-Malay segments of the population - that the only real choice is between the "liberal" BN and the conservative brand of Islam espoused by Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS).

One full-page ad in The Star, the country's top-selling newspaper, carries the message: "No other party can keep Malaysia peaceful, united and secure. Especially against threats of terrorism. Let's continue to enjoy security, peace and unity."

The advertising blitz is not just from the BN. Even government-linked firms such as Malaysia Airlines and Tenaga Nasional Bhd, the electricity utility company, have jumped into the fray, carrying thinly disguised messages that coincide with the BN advertising themes.

Tenaga Nasional has a new corny commercial about a boy going to sleep at night as the lights go out. The ad was slipped in a few times during popular programs such as Late Show with David Letterman. As the boy falls asleep, the narrator comes on with these pearls of wisdom: "Goodnight, son ... Hmm, looks like another night in quiet ol' Malaysia - and thank goodness for that. Because we are a country with peace and special harmony that lets us sleep soundly at night. Now isn't that worth celebrating?"

The other main parties contesting the polls - PAS, the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Keadilan - have been struggling to get their message across with hardly any meaningful access to the media. The only avenues left for them are the ceramahs and the Internet. Because of the limited reach of these avenues, few Malaysians are aware of the larger issues confronting their country.

The opposition is handicapped because the issues they - especially the DAP and Keadilan - are advocating are intangible issues such as the lack of independence of the judiciary, the unlevel electoral playing field and the curbs on democracy.

And that suits the BN fine. It projects itself as the only party capable of bringing about "development". Voters buy into this argument without realizing that the only reason the BN can bring about development is that it has access to the country's resources and government machinery. The BN has successfully ingrained into the population that the BN = government and the "opposition" parties are only good at making noise.

The BN's main selling point is new Premier Abdullah Badawi, whose picture appears on posters across the country. On a single bus stop, it is not uncommon to find half a dozen large portraits of Abdullah dangling around. The sheer amount of resources spent on the BN poster, billboard and glossy-pamphlet campaign ensures that the opposition campaign is dwarfed. For some reason, many of the BN campaign materials were printed and produced in China and shipped back to Malaysia.

To be sure, Abdullah's softer image is a marked contrast to former premier Mahathir Mohamad's often caustic style. And Abdullah's anti-corruption drive has also caught the imagination of many Malaysians, probably due to the hype in the mainstream media.

But many Malaysians fail to realize that all the anti-corruption drive has to show so far are the arrests of a prominent has-been tycoon and a virtually unknown cabinet minister. They do not see that Abdullah's "Mr Nice" image has been tarnished by the fact that as home minister, he is responsible for the arrests under the harsh Internal Security Act, which permits detention without trial. More than 90 people are still in detention, a group of whom are on hunger strike, including two who have been hospitalized.

PAS has also accused BN's dominant United Malays National Organization of offering bribes to persuade PAS candidates to withdraw from the general election, a charge UMNO denies. The party reportedly claimed that two men offered RM100,000 (US$26,300) to PAS's Pasir Raja candidate, Sanip Ithnin, to withdraw his candidacy.

In the face of a hopeless situation for the other parties, it is understandable that there should be a distinct lack of campaign excitement. The most the other parties can hope for is to hold on to the gains achieved during the reformasi-charged polls of 1999. Apart from this, the opposition parties are also hoping to score upset wins in specific constituencies against high-ranking BN officials including those in the cabinet, while PAS is hoping to add to the two states it controls.

Among the constituencies that Malaysians are closely watching are the contest in Pekan in the central state of Pahang where Najib Razak, the caretaker deputy premier, is facing a PAS contender, and the Sungai Siput seat, where the caretaker works minister, Samy Vellu, is up against Keadilan's Jeyakumar Devaraj, a respiratory physician turned political activist.

All eyes will also be on how PAS performs - whether it will make any further inroads or be thwarted. Keadilan also faces a do-or-die battle to make sure it can hang on to the five seats it captured in the last election.

All said, and given the unlevel playing field, the outcome is predictable, with the only uncertainty being to what extent, if any, the opposition can make further inroads. In 1999, the BN won 56 percent of the popular vote yet maintained its two-thirds majority in parliament due to Malaysia's first-past-the-post (simple majority) electoral system. This time around, the BN's share of the popular vote is likely to reach 60 percent or more, though it is unlikely to reach as high as the 65 percent it achieved in 1995.

(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)

Posted by maximpost at 1:11 AM EST
Permalink

Inviting the Vampire
By Lee Harris Published 03/19/2004
According to legend, it is impossible for a vampire to enter your house unless you have invited him in. Last Sunday, the Spanish people invited a vampire to enter their house, and the question that now looms before them -- and the rest of Europe as well -- is how to get him back out.
The vampire is terror -- but not just the old homespun terrorism of the European past, but the radically new form of terror that came to the world's attention on 9/11, namely catastrophic terror.
Once upon a time, back in the nineteenth century, terrorism was used to assassinate harmless members of royal families, which meant that unless you were close to the throne, you had nothing to worry about. During the late 1950's, small scale terror attacks were used both in Algeria and in metropolitan France, first of the Algerian Muslims to achieve independence from France, and then by the Algerian Europeans -- the so call pied noirs -- in order to prevent independence.
Here, for the first time, the threat of terror was felt at the personal level by the average guy. Yet as Alistair Horne writes in his history of the Algerian revolution, A Savage War of Peace, the terrorist bombs were designed more to shock and frighten the general public rather than to kill or maim them on a large scale. Two or three people might die in an explosion, but not two thousand or even two hundred.
Yet even these small scale terror attacks were sufficient to divide France into two bitterly opposed factions and to bring an end to the Fourth Republic -- a fact that should wake us up to the vastly greater potential for political de-stabilization posed by the systematic use of catastrophic terror.
Catastrophic terror, unlike ordinary terror, it is not intended to take a few token lives; it is deliberately designed to take so many lives at once that it induces an immediate visceral fear in the entire community that they too are under attack. This effect was clear in the days immediately after 9/11. Back then everything spooked us; and people, hearing the backfire of a truck, jumped out of their skin. At that point it was conceivable that "they" could be anywhere, and that another catastrophic event was right around the corner.
Looking back on 9/11 in light of the strike on Madrid, we are struck by two things. First, our initial phase of collective jitteriness immediately after 9/11, and second, the failure of Al Qaeda to exploit this jitteriness in order to influence or undermine our political system. As far as the date of the attack was concerned, 9/11 might have been pulled out of a hat.
The same thing cannot be said of the terror strike in Madrid. The explosions on Thursday seemed deliberately designed to echo in the minds of the voters the following Sunday -- to echo in their minds and to influence their vote.
If this is the case, then it may well mean that the date of future terror strikes will no longer be drawn out of a hat, but rather will be selected with an eye to maximizing the damage not to people or buildings, but to the political system of the country under attack -- and how better to achieve this end than to plan catastrophic terror events for the eve of national elections, or, even worse, for the morning of one?
If the small scale terror of the Algerian revolutionaries can bring down a republic, one can only begin to imagine the political havoc that the technique of catastrophic terror could achieve if those ruthless enough to exploit it were also cunning enough use it in order to discredit and subvert the very nature of the democratic process. What, after all, is the value of a democracy if terrorists can influence the outcome of elections through acts of mass violence? Who will be willing to vote for a party that has made a point of standing up to terrorism, if the price of their vote will be the brutal murder of hundred or thousands of their fellow citizens -- or even themselves?
What this vampire will do next is anybody's guess. But one thing is certain. It is easy to get a vampire to cross the threshold; but getting him to leave once he has made himself at home -- that is a good deal trickier.
Lee Harris recently wrote for TCS about "Puppet States." His book, Civilization and Its Enemies, was just released by Free Press.
Copyright ? 2004 Tech Central Station - www.techcentralstation.com

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washingtonpost.com
U.S. Mideast Initiative Faces Arab Backlash
By Glenn Kessler and Robin Wright
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, March 21, 2004; Page A19
KUWAIT CITY, March 20 -- The Bush administration and Arab leaders are engaged in a delicate dance over President Bush's call for democracy in the Middle East, with each side struggling to find a balance between high-minded rhetoric and actual progress, U.S. and Arab officials said.
Facing an Arab backlash, the Bush administration has honed its Greater Middle East Initiative, due to be unveiled at the Group of Eight summit of industrial powers in June, to place greater emphasis on plans emerging from the region, such as a possible resolution from the Arab League later this month, U.S. officials said. Arab officials say they feel pressured to respond to the Bush administration proposals, but even reformers privately say they fear that any U.S. imprimatur would discredit the initiative in the eyes of the Arab public and strengthen radical Islamic forces.
The balancing act was on display last week as Secretary of State Colin L. Powell met with Kuwaiti and Saudi officials about the U.S. initiative. Powell told reporters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Friday that the push for greater freedoms in the Middle East was "not a matter of satisfying the United States; it's a matter of satisfying the aspirations of the people in the Arab world." Powell flew back to Washington after meeting with Kuwait's emir, Sheik Jabir Ahmed Sabah, on Saturday.
In recent weeks, after administration plans for the June summit were leaked before U.S. officials had fully discussed them with Arab leaders, a bevy of U.S. officials have toured the region to make amends.
"When our ideas were first made known to the press, there was a great deal of angst in the region," Powell acknowledged. "It has caused a great deal of debate, a lot of argument in the press, and that's good. That's part of the democratic process."
"Each nation has to find its own path and follow that path at its own speed," Powell said.
Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, Prince Saud Faisal, standing next to Powell, responded that the Saudi monarchy was ushering in reforms but not "to get a report of good behavior." He said reform would take place at a pace that would make it "a unifying force for the country and not a divisive aspect."
Saudi Arabia has scheduled its first municipal elections for later this year, and officials have hinted that women may be granted the right to vote. But shortly before Powell arrived, Saudi officials arrested 10 reformist figures, including a university professor, after they had called for the monarchy to move toward a more constitutional model. They also were planning to criticize a state-approved human rights group set up earlier this month. Saudi officials said the group was involved in "acts of sabotage."
Powell said he has expressed concern over the detentions. But Saud, the foreign minister, said, "These people sowed dissension when the whole country was looking for unity and a clear vision, especially at a time when it is facing a terrorist threat."
The pace of reforms has also been uneven in Kuwait. The news media are relatively free to criticize the government but not the emir. Some Islamic leaders have used the political process to block even modest reforms proposed by the emir, including granting women the right to vote, liberalizing the economy and allowing coeducation at universities.
"Kuwait is moving in this direction rather steadily, with a legislature that is -- how should I put this gently? -- is showing some energy with respect to oversight of the government," Powell said Saturday after meeting with Kuwaiti officials.
Officials are now focusing on the upcoming Arab League summit in Tunis, which begins March 29. The 22 members of the league have indicated that they will discuss democracy initiatives and possibly adopt a resolution. "I think if the Arab League could come to some conclusion that everyone agrees to, we would certainly respect that statement of vision," Powell said.
But U.S. officials said the text of such a resolution would determine whether it could be embraced as a step forward at the G-8 summit. Egypt, which has criticized the U.S. initiative, has submitted a proposed resolution that U.S. officials have suggested falls short of Bush administration goals.
The Egyptian proposal would affirm a commitment to "processes of modernization and reform that are undertaken by Arab societies in response to the wishes and needs of their people." The initiative supports the efforts of nongovernmental organizations "within the framework of legality" and links progress on the issue to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt recently said at a conference on reform issues that homegrown reforms must take society's cultural, religious and demographic character into account to avoid "instability or the overtaking of the reform process by extremists who would steer it in a different direction."
"From what we saw of the Egyptian idea, there were more red lines than forward-looking ideas for reform," said a State Department official involved in democracy planning in the Middle East.
Jordan, which in recent months has responded more positively to U.S. calls for reform, also plans to propose a resolution. While its text has not been made public, it is expected to cover similar ground but refer more specifically to good governance, freedom of expression, women's rights, judicial and educational reforms and commitment to human rights.
Jordan's foreign minister, Marwan Muasher, traveled to Washington recently to share his government's ideas with U.S. officials.
Powell told Muasher that the United States has "many tools available to nations that want to use those tools to enhance their reform efforts," such as an ongoing program at the State Department, according to a senior State Department official close to Powell who participated in the meeting. "Powell told Muasher that is the spirit of what we want to do at the G-8: We will try to define tools and reforms and how they can be used as we watch progress in the Arab world."
Wright reported from Washington.
? 2004 The Washington Post Company
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washingtonpost.com
Ex-Aide Assails Bush on War on Terrorism
Associated Press
Sunday, March 21, 2004; Page A22
Richard A. Clarke, the former White House counterterrorism coordinator, accuses the Bush administration of failing to recognize the al Qaeda threat before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and then manipulating the nation into war with Iraq with dangerous consequences.
He accuses President Bush of doing "a terrible job on the war against terrorism."
Clarke, who is expected to testify Tuesday before a federal panel reviewing the attacks, writes in a book going on sale Monday that Bush and his Cabinet were preoccupied during the early months of his presidency with some of the same Cold War issues that his father's administration had faced.
"It was as though they were preserved in amber from when they left office eight years earlier," Clarke told CBS for an interview tonight on "60 Minutes."
CBS's corporate parent, Viacom Inc., owns Simon & Schuster, publisher of Clarke's book, "Against All Enemies: Inside the White House's War on Terror -- What Really Happened."
Clarke acknowledges that, "there's a lot of blame to go around, and I probably deserve some blame, too." He said he wrote to national security adviser Condoleezza Rice on Jan. 24, 2001, asking "urgently" for a Cabinet-level meeting "to deal with the impending al Qaeda attack." Months later, in April, Clarke met with departmental deputy secretaries, and the conversation turned to Iraq.
"I'm sure I'll be criticized for lots of things, and I'm sure they'll launch their dogs on me," Clarke said. "But, frankly, I find it outrageous that the president is running for reelection on the grounds that he's done such great things about terrorism. He ignored it. He ignored terrorism for months, when maybe we could have done something."
Clarke retired in 2003 after 30 years in government. He was among the longest-serving White House staffers, transferred from the State Department in 1992 to deal with threats from terrorism and narcotics.
Clarke previously led the government's secretive Counterterrorism and Security Group.

? 2004 The Washington Post Company

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washingtonpost.com
Kerry Rejects Outsourced Endorsements
By John F. Harris
Sunday, March 21, 2004; Page A07
John F. Kerry's campaign is trying to wave surrender on the great controversy over his claim that more foreign leaders secretly back his candidacy than President Bush. Campaign aides last week said he is neither seeking foreign endorsements, nor will he accept them.
"This election will be decided by the American people, and the American people alone," Rand Beers, a Kerry foreign policy adviser, said in a statement. "It is simply not appropriate for any foreign leader to endorse a candidate in America's presidential election. John Kerry does not seek, and will not accept, any such endorsements."
So goes the effort to end the hubbub over perhaps the most damaging boast in U.S. politics since Al Gore claimed the invention of the Internet. Like that earlier boast -- Gore was indeed an important early backer of government research funding for the technology that eventually became the Internet -- this one may well have more truth than not. Polling in most European nations shows powerful anti-Bush majorities -- do the leaders disagree that much with their constituents? -- and just last week Bush was rebuked by the prime minister of Poland and the newly elected leader of Spain.
But the most prominent voice on the record last week backing the presumptive Democratic nominee was not exactly welcomed by Kerry. Former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad -- a man with a long history of anti-Semitic utterances -- declared, "I think Kerry would be much more willing to listen to the voices of people and of the rest of the world."
The Republican National Committee, continuing what has been a drumbeat of Kerry mockery, featured a new video on its Web site, www.rnc.org. With Austin Powers-style music and images, the spot spoofs the candidate as "John Kerry: International Man of Mystery."
Of course, the Republicans had their own problems with unsavory Asian dictators last week, after Newsday disclosed that the official merchandise Web site for Bush's reelection campaign has sold clothing made in Burma, which has a repressive government and whose goods are banned from import to the United States.
Two Spinners Whirl Back
Two familiar faces in the world of political spin and media combat are returning to Washington, courtesy of Kerry. Howard Wolfson, an aggressive campaign spokesman for Hillary Rodham Clinton's 2000 Senate run in New York, is moving here to join the Kerry communications team, spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter said.
Coming from even farther away is former State Department spokesman James P. Rubin, himself a man of Austin Powers-like mystique, arriving soon from London for six months in Washington. Rubin, who is married to CNN star correspondent Christiane Amanpour, will live here through the fall as a foreign policy adviser and public surrogate for Kerry. Kerry, however, was not Rubin's first choice for president; he advised Wesley K. Clark until the retired Army general's campaign ended.
Democrats Building Unity
It will be a parade of Democratic stars in town on Thursday for the Democratic National Committee's "Unity Dinner," designed to celebrate the party's determination to bury intramural differences and rally behind Kerry.
Former presidents Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, who have had their differences over the years, will be on hand for the dinner at the National Building Museum -- as well as at an after-hours party at the nightclub Dream.
Also present for the dinner will be all of this year's Democratic presidential candidates, minus one. Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (Ohio) was not invited, a DNC official said, because he is still campaigning and not preaching party unity.
The day will also mark the ribbon-cutting at the DNC's newly renovated headquarters at the foot of Capitol Hill. About $13 million was spent refurbishing the building, once a notorious dump. The building is wired for the latest technology, including a studio for satellite news conferences, but staffers grouse that it's still many long blocks from decent expense-account restaurants for source-building reporters.
350 Friends Briefed at 1600
The socially conservative and politically influential Family Research Council was given red-carpet treatment at the White House on Thursday. More than 350 major donors and other supporters received a private briefing from Elliott Abrams, the National Security Council staff director for Middle East affairs.
To give the White House session a more intimate feel, Bush aides split the more than 350 attendees of the council's annual "Washington Briefing" into two groups on successive days.
The Family Research Council is a nonprofit educational foundation and by law must be nonpartisan, but the GOP leanings were clear at last week's briefing. When James Dobson of Focus on the Family warned during one discussion that gay marriage could lead to a "man marrying his donkey," Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, had the crowd chortling by saying that made him think of "a Republican marrying a Democrat."
Staff writer Mike Allen contributed to this report.

? 2004 The Washington Post Company
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SPIEGEL ONLINE - 20. M?rz 2004, 17:12
URL: http://www.spiegel.de/kultur/gesellschaft/0,1518,291685,00.html
F?lschungsskandal
Starreporter von "USA Today" erfand Geschichten
Nach den Betrugsf?llen bei der "New York Times" ersch?ttert ein weiterer Skandal die US-Presselandschaft: Reporter Jack Kelley, hoch dekoriert und f?nf Mal f?r den begehrten Pulitzer-Preis nominiert, hat brisante Storys f?r "USA Today" einfach erfunden.
AP
Reporter Jack Kelley: "Ich habe das Gef?hl, ich werde hereingelegt"
Washington - Jack Kelley soll sich wichtige Teile von mindestens acht gro?en Reportagen f?r die Zeitung "USA Today" ausgedacht haben. Das sind die Ergebnisse einer Untersuchungskommission, die das Blatt eingesetzt hat. Unter den 729 Artikeln, die Kelley zwischen 1993 und 2003 f?r die Zeitung schrieb, seien "journalistische S?nden" von betr?chtlichen Ausma?en.
Unter anderem berichtete der Reporter von einem Selbstmordanschlag auf eine Pizzeria in Jerusalem. In der Story hatte Kelley geschrieben: "Drei M?nner, die drinnen gerade ihre Pizza a?en, wurden aus ihren St?hlen geschleudert. ... Als sie auf dem Boden aufschlugen, l?sten sich ihre K?pfe von den K?rpern und rollten die Stra?e herunter", berichtet die US-Zeitung "Los Angeles Times". Der Autor habe behauptet, die Augen in den abgetrennten K?pfen h?tten noch gezwinkert.
"Ungeheuerlichste Missetat"
Bei "US Today" indes ist unklar, wie Kelley den Zwischenfall ?berhaupt beobachtet haben will. Der Reporter habe etwa 30 Meter entfernt mit dem R?cken zur Pizzeria gestanden, als die Bombe hochging. Nach Beh?rdenangaben sei au?erdem bei dem Anschlag niemand gek?pft worden.
Als Kelleys "ungeheuerlichste Missetat" bezeichnete die Untersuchungsgruppe einen Vorfall aus dem Jahr 2000. Der Journalist hatte ein Foto von einer kubanischen Hotelangestellten f?r eine L?gengeschichte ?ber eine Frau benutzt, die bei ihrer Flucht mit dem Boot ums Leben gekommen sein sollte. Tats?chlich war die Frau nicht geflohen, zudem ?u?erst lebendig und von einem Reporter Anfang des Monats ausfindig gemacht worden.
Jack Kelley arbeitete seit 21 Jahren f?r die Zeitung und war pers?nlicher G?nstling des "USA Today"-Gr?nder Al Neuhart. Der 43 Jahre alte Journalist wurde f?nf Mal f?r den Pulitzer-Preis nominiert. Er berichtete aus Krisengebieten wie dem Nahen Osten oder Afghanistan. Im Januar hatte er seinen Job bei der Zeitung gek?ndigt, nachdem er Redakteuren gegen?ber zugegeben hatte, sie get?uscht zu haben. Er beharre aber nach wie vor darauf, nicht Falsches getan zu haben. "Ich habe das Gef?hl, ich werde hereingelegt", soll er zu Kollegen gesagt haben.
"Wir haben als Institution unseren Lesern gegen?ber versagt, weil wir Jack Kelley Probleme nicht bemerkt haben. Daf?r entschuldige ich mich", sagte Herausgeber Craig Moon. "In Zukunft werden wir sicherstellen, dass eine Umgebung gew?hrleistet ist, in der solch ein Missbrauch nie wieder vorkommt."

? SPIEGEL ONLINE 2004
Alle Rechte vorbehalten
Vervielf?ltigung nur mit Genehmigung der SPIEGELnet GmbH

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Annan seeks Iraq 'fraud' inquiry
BBC
The UN-administered scheme was vital for feeding Iraqis
UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has called for an independent inquiry into allegations of fraud and corruption in its oil-for-food programme in Iraq.
An internal UN inquiry is already under way, but Mr Annan wants outside firms and individuals to be investigated too.
The programme aimed to help Iraq cope with sanctions by allowing oil sales profits to be used for basic goods.
But the US now estimates that Saddam Hussein's regime made billions more out of it than previously thought.
The US Treasury thinks $10bn of illicit gains were made between 1997 and 2002 from the scheme - up from the previous estimate of $6bn.
In January, an Iraqi newspaper alleged that individuals and organisations from more than 40 countries had received vouchers for cut-price oil from the Iraqi regime.
'Serious consideration'
In a letter to the Security Council, Mr Annan proposed setting up an independent high-level inquiry to look into alleged corruption in the oil-for-food programme which was run by the UN from 1996 until last year.
It is highly possible that there's been quite a lot of wrongdoing, but we need to investigate and get to see who is responsible
Kofi Annan
He said the allegations, whether well-founded or not, had to be taken seriously.
Such an independent inquiry would need the backing of the Security Council, and Mr Annan said he would be sending it more details.
Under the oil-for-food programme, more than $65 billion was handed out for food, medicine and other non-military goods to ease the impact of 1991 Gulf War sanctions on ordinary Iraqis.
It was funded by sales of limited quotas of oil.
The programme was closed after the invasion of Iraq by US-led forces.
Smuggling
The US General Accounting Office (GAO), the investigatory arm of Congress, says Saddam Hussein earned $5.7bn from oil smuggled out of Iraq and $4.4bn from illegal surcharges he placed on oil.
GAO officials say the oil was smuggled through Syria, Jordan and the Persian Gulf and that the government imposed surcharges of up to 50 cents a barrel. It also took commissions of between 5-10% from suppliers.
In order to obtain more Iraqi money stashed away by the old regime, the US Treasury on Thursday submitted the names of 16 Saddam Hussein family members and 191 quasi-governmental firms to the UN.
A UN Security Council resolution requires that member nations freeze accounts which contain Iraqi money and hand over the funds for Iraq's reconstruction.

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Demonocracy
Beware of once-elected thugs.



What exactly does democracy -- "people power" -- really mean? Even the Greeks who invented this peculiar institution were not quite sure. Was it just rule by a majority vote? Or did it include mechanisms and subsidies to ensure the participation of the poor? Or to protect the minority from mob rule? Aristotle himself was baffled about what actually distinguished some forms of oligarchies from democracies; indeed his Politics can offer only a hopelessly confused typology.

Later Westerners who looked back at democracy in Athens were also confused over whether it was the noble "School of Hellas" of Pericles or the mobocracy that had precipitously executed Aegean islanders and condemned Socrates -- or both. Sober critics of democracy usually preferred a "Mixed Constitution," a consensual constitution that had various checks -- sometimes legislative, sometimes executive and judicial -- on popular will.

In any case, through the long cauldron of Western political thought there has emerged a consensus that constitutional government should have elements of both direct voting and elective representatives to protect citizenry from their own spontaneous and raw emotions. An independent judiciary, constitutional protection of minority and religious rights, guarantees of personal freedom and expression -- all these institutions are also essential to the idea of "democracy."

In addition, free markets are integral to consensual government. So are property rights. And these institutions are not simply to be ensured at the national level alone; in a modern free country they naturally permeate all of society, from informal elections at local PTA meetings to airing squabbles freely at the local chamber of commerce.

"Democracy" is also an evolving concept. From its inception in ancient Greece it has steadily become more inclusive -- dropping barriers to participation based on wealth, race, and gender. And it has also become more careful to distance governance from what a given electorate happens to feel on any given day, whether through judicial intervention or the rise of vast bureaucracies run by the executive branch.

In the modern world, the terms "democracy" and "republic" -- nomenclature native only to Western languages -- are bandied about quite loosely, inasmuch as they lend a veneer of legitimacy to otherwise awful regimes. The Soviet Union was supposedly a conglomeration of "republics." So were North Vietnam and East Germany. Indeed "democratic peoples" and "socialist republics" were usually code words for no voting and no liberty.

In light of the propaganda value of giving lip service to freedom, dictatorships on the Right also rarely call themselves "The Autocracy of Chile" or "The Nicaraguan Dictatorship." Many of the Arab autocracies -- the Saudi monarchy's employment of "kingdom" is an exception -- are officially "republics." Of course, not a single one has a really consensual government or regularly scheduled elections that are truly free.

So most countries that are not democratic claim that they are; and yet democracy itself turns out to be much more than just the occasion of one free election. And this paradox can raise real problems. Look at the Iranian elections of 1980 that took place in a climate of intimidation and without constitutional guarantees. Secular candidates were harassed and voters intimidated. Within three years there was essentially only one Islamic party and thereafter only sporadic rigged elections. The Iranian "president" and "parliament" meant little then and mean less now, as we learn from the recent forced withdrawal of a number of "reform" candidates.

Ditto for the Palestinians. Arafat had one sort of free election in 1996. But his "opponent," Samiha Kahil, was denied commensurate air time and contended with the bribery, violence, and censorship of Fatah, before garnering a mere nine percent of the vote. There have been no presidential elections since, no free judiciary, and no free press. The Palestinian Authority is about as democratic as the regime of Saddam Hussein, who "won" his similarly fixed election by about the same plurality as Arafat. Yet the New York Times praised Arafat in 1996 for his electoral victory and like most others in the media has been reluctant since to condone his isolation to his Ramallah bunker, given that chimera that he was a "democratically elected leader."

Haiti is not much different. An exiled Mr. Aristide was restored by the United States in 1996, on the pretext that he probably won the 1994 election. But since then he has engaged in criminality, censorship, blackmail, and violence to ensure that both the parliamentary and presidential elections of 2000 were engineered to his own satisfaction. For all his priestly past, New York sojourns, and professed sympathy for the poor, he too is a one-vote, one-time thug.

In some ways these aborted democracies are more pernicious than the old-style dictatorships, in that they use their purportedly democratic geneses as cover for some pretty awful things. The modus operandi works something like this. An initial election follows after the demise of a prior government either associated with autocracy or the machinations of the West -- the abdication of a Duvalier, Shah, or Israeli governing authority. Jimmy Carter arrives to certify (sometimes quite accurately) that the election is more or less fair -- even as he can say little about the absence of a ratified constitution, free press, legitimate opposition, or bill of rights. U.N. "observers" lurk and prowl in the shadows to legitimize the proceedings, understandably scurrying back to their compounds or hotel the first time some hired goon sticks an AK-47 up their noses.

In the years that follow (such "reelected" leaders never lose and never step down), various human-rights organizations and Western leftists subsequently praise the new progressiveness of the "emerging democracy" and turn mostly a blind idea to the predictable theft, killing, and lawlessness that follow.

So happy are supporters of elected indigenous scoundrels that they issue a lifelong pass, one that has the practical effect to encourage all sorts of pathologies, from making nuclear bombs (Pakistan and Iran) to blowing up innocent civilians (Arafat). In most cases, vocal Westerner sympathizers -- a Sartre, Foucault, or Chomsky -- are never interested much in real democratic government, but instead find a vicarious delight in seeing raw power employed under the slogans of "social justice" and "national liberation" and expressed in predictable anti-Western tones -- democracy providing them necessary cover on the cheap for cheering on pretty awful rulers.

To this day, supporters of Iranian nationalism still cite voting in Teheran. "Elected" Mr. Arafat enjoys the fruits of moral equivalence and thus is seen as no different from Sharon -- inasmuch as he too "won" a majority vote just like his counterpart. That Fatah is a lawless gang -- that Palestinians have no real free press and are routinely robbed, shaken down, and sometimes killed by their thugocracy -- is again excused by a single, once-upon-a-time vote. By the same token, Mr. Aristide is championed by the Congressional Black Caucus and an array of leftists precisely because he once won a purportedly transparent election when those he now despises took the effort to ensure his accession.

We should worry about these developments as we press ahead with needed democratic reform in Iraq. It will be easy to have one free election in Iraq under Western auspices. But precipitous voting will hardly make a democracy. Indeed it may have the opposite effect of extending legitimacy to radical Islamicists or strongmen who emerge through the liberality and sacrifice of Western blood and treasure -- only in the years ahead to curb free speech, individual rights, the right to own property, and engage in commerce without government coercion. And far from hating "democracy," such demonocratic subversives welcome its initial largess, by which all the better they can later destroy it.

What to do when we wish to leave -- and those most likely to subvert the process most want us out? The most important development now unfolding in Iraq is not the date of elections, but the emergence of a constitution that protects secularism, women's rights, and ethnic minorities, and a popular culture -- Internet, television, free assembly, and consumerism -- that promotes free and easy association.

Without all that, we will inevitably see a one-time elected leader who will systematically transform American-sponsored fair voting into an institutionalized sham. And these demonocrats will largely be given a pass from anti-American Westerners who, when the corpses pile up and the chaos ensues, will still cling to the myth that Sheik X, Ayallatoh Y, or Chairman Z was in fact "elected."

The administration seems to grasp all these pitfalls and yet senses that democracy can still work in formerly awful places like South Africa, Poland, and Turkey -- if there is a commitment to these vital ancillary institutions and protections. But they are between the rock of global demands for instant Iraqi popular sovereignty and the hard place of guaranteeing long-term democratic success a decade from now when our troops are gone and the world may be an even more dangerous place.

This is not the old realpolitik of giving a pass for pumping oil and keeping Communists at bay, or ignoring the usual descent into demonocracy. Instead of slurring our efforts as colonialist and self-interested, we should at least concede that the implementation of consensual rule in Iraq is the most idealistic, perhaps expensive, and in the end audacious initiative in the last half century of American foreign policy.

Indeed, we are in one of the rare periods of fundamental transformation in world history -- as the United States has pledged its blood and treasure in both a dangerous and daring attempt to bring the Middle East, kicking and screaming, into the family of democratic nations and free societies. So while American soldiers fight, build, patrol, and sometimes die in Iraq and Afghanistan, the world at large -- the Saudi royal family, President Musharraf, Mr. Khaddafi, the mullahs in Iran, the young Assad, the kleptocracy on the West Bank, and the weak and triangulating Europeans -- wonders whether the strong horse will prove to be the murderous bin Laden and his Arab romance of a new Dark Age, or George Bush's idea of a free and democratic Middle East.

http://www.nationalreview.com/hanson/hanson200403190815.asp
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The Deficit Debate Is a Charade
Bloated government, not the tax cut, is to blame.

By Daniel J. Mitchell

The charges lodged against the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts are deceptively simple: They have dramatically reduced government revenues, causing big, long-term deficits that will hurt the economy by driving up interest rates.

But this charge doesn't withstand scrutiny. This is partly because of the tenuous relationship between deficits and interest rates. (If deficits have such an adverse effect on interest rates, why are the rates lower today than they were during the surplus years?) But it's mostly because long-run deficits are caused by the growth of government spending.

Tax cuts certainly aren't to blame. From 1951 to 2000, federal tax revenues averaged 18.1 percent of gross domestic product. Tax-cut opponents frequently imply that Bush's tax cuts have emptied government coffers and created long-term fiscal chaos, but the Congressional Budget Office projects that tax revenues for 2012 to 2014 will average 18.1 percent of gross domestic product. You don't have to be a math whiz to realize how absurd it is to claim that tax cuts cause long-run deficits when tax revenues will mirror their long-term average. (This analysis, by the way, assumes that the tax cuts are made permanent.)

Critics note that tax revenues currently fall below 18.1 percent of GDP. But this is a short-term phenomenon caused by the recent recession and the temporary stock market-driven collapse of tax revenues from capital gains. No one expects these short-term factors to last. The CBO, for instance, estimates that tax revenues soon will return to historical norms, averaging 18.1 percent of GDP over the 2007-09 period.

This does not mean, incidentally, that tax revenues should always be 18.1 percent of GDP. It is just a coincidence that average revenue collections and future revenue projections are identical as a share of national economic output. It does mean, however, that we can't truthfully pin blame for future deficits on the tax cuts.

Deficits, however, are not the issue. The real problem is government spending, and we should view rising deficits as a symptom of Washington's profligacy. The spending crisis is both a short-term and a long-term problem. Federal spending has jumped dramatically in recent years, climbing from 18.4 percent of GDP in 2000 to more than 20 percent of GDP in 2004 (and less than half of that increase can be attributed to national defense or homeland security).

But this short-term expansion of the federal government's burden is minor when compared to what will happen after the baby-boom generation begins to retire. Without reform, huge unfunded promises for Social Security and Medicare benefits will cause federal spending to rise sharply. (And lawmakers last year made the problem worse by creating a new entitlement for prescription drugs under Medicare.)

Bigger government, though, is economically harmful. When politicians spend money, regardless of whether they get it from taxes or through borrowing, they're taking it from the productive sector of the economy. This might not be so bad if lawmakers used strict cost-benefit analysis to determine if the money was being well-spent -- particularly when compared with the efficiency of private-sector expenditures. Unfortunately, that rarely happens. Instead, politicians allocate funds on the basis of political rather than economic considerations. This inevitably weakens economic performance.

Lower spending would be a good idea even if we had a giant surplus. Government programs deprive the private sector of resources that could be used to boost jobs and create growth. This is why we should cut "discretionary" spending and re-examine entire programs, agencies, and departments. Lawmakers also should reform entitlement programs, in part to reduce long-term budget pressures but also because the private sector is better at providing health care and retirement income.

Today's deficit debate is largely a charade. The proponents of big government shed crocodile tears about the deficit because they want higher taxes. Yet historical evidence clearly shows that higher taxes tend to encourage more government spending and hurt the economy -- and both of these factors can cause the deficit to climb still higher. Worse, higher taxes would hurt U.S. competitiveness, making America more like France and other European welfare states.

To save our children and our grandchildren from such a fate, we should keep cutting taxes and finally get serious about reducing the burden of government spending. That may not carry the political allure of vilifying tax cuts -- but at least it's accurate.

-- Daniel J. Mitchell is the McKenna fellow in political economy at the Heritage Foundation


http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_comment/mitchell200403190800.asp
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>> GITMO PUSH PULL...

Guant?namo Detainees Deliver Intelligence Gains
By NEIL A. LEWIS

GUANT?NAMO BAY, Cuba, March 19 -- Military officials say prisoners at the detention center here have provided a stream of intelligence to interrogators during the past two years, including detailed information about Al Qaeda's recruitment of Muslim men in Europe.
Military and intelligence officials also said those detainees who were cooperative had provided information about Al Qaeda's chemical and biological weapons efforts, had spoken about the training of suicide bombers, and had described Al Qaeda's use of charities to raise money for its aims.
"We have been able as a result of information gained here to take operational actions, even military campaigns," said Steve Rodriguez, a veteran intelligence officer who oversees the interrogation teams. "There are instances of learning about active cells, and we have taken action to see that the cell was broken," he said, in one of a series of interviews given to a reporter on an arranged tour.
Another American official said analysts had been able to understand a kind of network in Europe that selected young Muslims, who were later drawn into Al Qaeda by imams and Islamic cultural centers and eventually sent to Afghanistan. He said this information has been sent on in recent months to European counterparts.
The sweeping assertions about the value of the detention center at Guant?namo respond to criticism of the operation, in the United States and abroad. Released detainees have also made allegations of mistreatment.
Apparently in an effort to counter the criticism, officials offered to talk in far greater detail than before about their interrogation techniques and what they say are important intelligence harvests from the detainees.
The officials denied the specific allegations of mistreatment made by prisoners recently returned to Britain whose accounts appeared in British newspapers and from Afghans who spoke to The New York Times in Kabul. Their accounts detail enforced privation, petty cruelty, beatings and planned humiliations.
There is no way so far to verify the situation of the detainees as described by the American officials, nor the charges of mistreatment.
The first military tribunals for some prisoners at Guant?namo may begin this summer, an event that is expected to draw new criticism. Many groups have challenged the legal basis the United States has cited to justify the detentions.
Speaking of the intelligence gleaned, Mr. Rodriguez contended that it was still useful, despite the fact that some of the detainees had been at Guant?namo for nearly two years. "I thought that when I first came here, there would be little to gain," he said. "But when they talk about what happens in certain operational theaters, the locations of certain pathways, that information doesn't perish."
He said a large number of the 610 detainees had not been cooperative with interrogators. At least 50, he said, were "ardent jihadists and have no qualms about telling you that if they got out, they would go and kill more Americans."
Mr. Rodriguez's emphasis on the dozens of the most hard-core detainees raises a significant question about Guant?namo: Does the prison camp also house many innocents who were swept up in the chaotic aftermath of the Afghanistan war?
Human rights groups and relatives of those detained have said the United States has committed a gross injustice by imprisoning many people who were in Afghanistan or Pakistan for reasons other than joining the Taliban or fighting for Al Qaeda. More than 100 prisoners from Guant?namo have been released so far.
Three former British prisoners who are friends from the city of Tipton said in interviews published last week in The Sunday Observer that they were arrested after they went to the region to arrange a marriage for one of the men. One of the others was to serve as best man. They spoke of beatings and abuse by American soldiers, charging that the Americans had stood on their kneeling legs and had held guns to their heads during questioning at Guant?namo.
Maj. Gen. Geoffrey Miller, the departing commander of the Joint Task Force, which runs the prison camp at Guant?namo, categorically denied the allegations.
He said he was confident that all the men there had been properly screened and fit the definition of an enemy combatant. "These people have a number of cover stories," he said. "I can say with certainty that the British detainees were here for an appropriate reason."
Mr. Rodriguez said, "If I were to believe the stories they tell me at first, then 90 percent of them are innocent rug merchants."
The released detainees said some prisoners had been treated brutally by soldiers from the Immediate Reaction Force, a group of seven members called to prison cells when an inmates refused to obey an order. One carries a plexiglass shield, and the rest have elbow and knee pads.
Such actions, officials said, occur three times a week on average and are always videotaped.
General Miller acknowledged a handful of occasions when the handling was judged to have been too rough, but said no one was left seriously injured. He said one military policeman had been court-martialed for overreacting when an inmate threw excrement on him. The soldier was acquitted.
The detention system at Guant?namo is intended to make the prisoners as compliant as possible. The detainees are schooled in a system of rewards and penalties calibrated to their behavior, including potential access to books and puzzles or being deprived of towels and a toothbrush.
For instance, most prisoners are not allowed to exercise in their 6-by-8-foot cells, but get twice-weekly 20-minute periods for exercising and showering. But if the camp authorities decide that detainees are becoming cooperative, they are given more time out of their cells.
The International Committee of the Red Cross, the only outside group that visits the detainees, has not publicly complained about physical mistreatment. But it has said the prolonged detention without any certainty for the inmates about their future is inhumane and psychologically debilitating.
The detainees may be summoned for questioning at any time of day or night for as many as two daily sessions of up to five hours.
One senior intelligence officer, a reservist who is a homicide detective in civilian life, described using hamburgers from the base's McDonald's and games of chess to gain intimacy with a detainee he said had been Al Qaeda's chief explosives instructor.
Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company
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Liberalism, Loose or Strict By Anthony de Jasay presented by www.cne.org
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Introduction The Centre for the New Europe (CNE) is proud to present its readers with "Liberalism, loose or strict", a paper by Anthony de Jasay. The paper was originally presented at the Liberales Institut of Zurich in December 2003. CNE thanks Liberales Institut's President Robert Nef for authorizing the present publication. Anthony de Jasay is one of the few truly original minds in contemporary social science. He is well-known for combining analytical rigor with a realistic approach to social phenomena--a rare quality, given that the industry of political superstitions, which has no purpose but to dress the emperor, is still working at full capacity. Jasay has been opposing such a tendency for some time. His acclaimed book, The State (1985), perhaps the finest treatise on the subject, has opened the eyes of more than a few readers to the true nature of the institution par excellence, in the realm of modern political philosophy. His Against Politics (1997), a collection of penetrating essays, has illuminated the shortcomings of F.A. Hayek's political philosophy, as well as cast new light on the weaknesses of limited government "libertarianism" and opened new perspectives in the examination of the emergence of social conventions. His last book, Justice and Its Surroundings, is dedicated to justice and to the issues that typically surround it: freedom, sovereignty, distribution, choice, property, agreement, et cetera. Not only is Jasay's treatment of justice per se original and groundbreaking - further, he provides insightful criticisms of the approaches used by scholars such as John Rawls, Robert Nozick, Brian Barry, and Thomas Scanlon. For any student of political philosophy, Jasay's work is almost a panacea against the philosophical viruses still poisoning European academia. CNE believes that this paper on "loose and strict liberalism" could greatly benefit readers, giving them a theoretical framework to better understand disputes and debates among so-called "classical liberals" and "libertarians". Jasay's paper envisions new solutions to ancient problems, and provides true intellectual excitement. To complement this paper, we also thank Anthony de Jasay for having been so kind as to answer a few questions by CNE Visiting Fellow Alberto Mingardi. MINGARDI: You speak about the loose foundations of classical liberalism, which hasn't been a very "firm" and "strict" political doctrine, but rather an "inclusive"one, an umbrella-political thought under which many different ways of thinking found place. What do you think is the key issue to distinguish between "loose" and "strict" liberalism? The theory of private property? The issue of social justice? DE JASAY: Property and justice are certainly getting different treatments in the two liberalisms, - but I think this is not a primary element of their differences, but rather the consequence of a more fundamental contrast. At the deepest level, the "loose" and the "strict" doctrines differ because the first is value-based, the second logic-based. In loose liberalism, we start from the value we think people should, and do, attach to freedom. But
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being liberals and tolerant, we also leave them freedom of choice: they are certainly entitled to like other values as well, and it is up to them to choose the tradeoffs between rival values that best suit their inclinations. Thus, value-based loose liberalism makes room for "social justice", for equality, for security and any number of other values you can think of. It is a doctrine of tradeoffs; it can be all things to all men as tastes, fashions of thought, forms of political correctness come and go. This is why I keep saying that (loose) liberalism "has a weak immune system". Its weak doctrine leaves it wide open to parasitic invasions ("rightsism") and mutations of identity. Strict liberalism has one cornerstone (you might even say it is its only cornerstone), namely the presumption of liberty, that is not value-based, is subject to no tradeoffs, but is simply a logical consequence of which kind of statement can be falsified and which kind verified. MINGARDI: What are the most relevant theoretical flaws that you notice in contemporary classical liberal / libertarian principles? DE JASAY: For greater clarity, it might be best to put a dividing line between classical liberalism and libertarianism though the division is far from sharp. My feeling is that classical liberalism suffers mainly from one "design fault": along Lockean lines, it accepts the sovereignty of the state because it believes that our "life, liberty and property" can be exempted from this sovereignty. In other words, it tacitly postulates that if we, good liberals, wish government to be limited, it will be limited. I am afraid this is stark nonsense; it is of the essence of government that it is a tool that some people will use to exploit others and by doing so secure the control of government. It is no use to say that government ought to be limited, or that we wish that it should be. (Cf. ch.2 "Is Limited Government Possible?" in my book Against Politics.) Classical liberalism stands or falls with limited government. If I am right that government has intrinsic, built-in features that predestine it to expand and encroach upon the sphere of individual choices, classical liberalism rests upon a falsehood. It is not clear that libertarianism can be accused of the same fault. It does not seem to me that limited government is an inherent element in libertarian theory. If I am right that it is not, libertarianism is in some sense more truthful. It can postulate anarchy. It can also take government as it exists, and postulate opportunistic, step-by-step shavings-off from its scope, - a privatisation here, the repeal of a busybody law there - as part of the libertarian rearguard fight. Putting it differently, the classical liberal sees the state as legitimate but regrettably overstepping its proper limits and hence in need of being cautioned. The libertarian by contrast sees the state not as an errant servant, but as an adversary. MINGARDI: How does the issue of Constitutionalism fit in your distinction between loose and strict liberalism? DE JASAY: In "loose" liberalism, the constitution is an essential ingredient of whichever kind of political order the particular version of liberalism happens to desire. A well-made constitution works rather like the auto-pilot of a passenger plane; it is an automatic device for ensuring that the plane will fly to the destination "we" have fixed for it. Given a good constitution, "we" are safe.
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But of course society is not a unanimous "we". There are many conflicts of interest where "we" confront "them". If these conflicts must be resolved constitutionally, the constitution will become a locus of conflict, - indeed, perhaps, the central locus of most conflicts. It will accordingly be amended, or twisted and turned in interpretation, or circumvented. Its guardian (the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Court) will be unable to resist this; in some periods (the Warren Court) it will be its chief twister-and-turner. The constitution in its logical structure is a vow. Like a vow, it is up to "us" to keep it. It is also like a chastity belt whose key we have within reach. I believe constitutionalism, like its twin brother contractarianism, is a very dangerous strain of thought. It is illusion-mongering. It fosters a belief that we are on auto-pilot and safe from error or selfish deviation by the pilots. In strict liberalism, the constitution is (almost) irrelevant. Since government is not recognised as legitimate, the question of what it may legitimately do does not arise. MINGARDI: Why do you think "pious lies" are so successful in the intellectual environment? Why even so-called free market types do not go for strict liberalism, but rather worship some sort of alternatives, really indistinguishable from a theoretical standpoint from socialist (loose) liberalism? DE JASAY: Pious lies, e.g. the social contract, tell us that things went the way they did because at bottom we wanted them to go that way. The state of affairs has been chosen by a social choice rule that conforms to ethical axioms (e.g. majority rule). Laws are what they are because they maximise the common good, or maximise wealth (as in law-and-economics). A "veil of uncertainty" has made it rational for us consensually to adopt political institutions that in retrospect are proving to be redistributive and disadvantageous. And so on through the whole list of the social arrangements that systematically favour some at the expense of others. Pious lies, in short, serve to reassure us that we are not silly suckers. MINGARDI: You write that, "Despite the logic of the thesis that the state is intrinsically unnecessary, and the attractiveness of ordered anarchy, it is hardly worth the effort to advocate the abolition of the state. But it is worth the effort to constantly challenge its legitimacy". These are inspiring words, but how do you think that this effort to constantly challenge its legitimacy should take place in the contemporary world? DE JASAY: I am agnostic about civil disobedience and taxpayers' strikes. When I speak of challenging the illegitimate state, I mainly mean waging a relentless intellectual battle against the attitude that approves the law because it is the law, because it has been enacted according to the rules. Docility, willing submission to the "lawful government" makes it far too easy for the latter steadily to enlarge its domain of decision. We have reached the stage where almost any policy measure, no matter how outrageous, is accepted as legitimate provided it can be traced to the majority will. Challenging this means hammering home that the measure is outrageous for good reasons despite the majority wanting it (i.e. in practice, despite its being "socially progressive"). As things stand, this is merely a rearguard fight. However, for reasons we cannot really foresee, the tide may turn one day and the rearguard fight may become an advance.
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Liberalism, loose or strict By Anthony de Jasay Political doctrines can be understood and interpreted in many ways, but in order to survive and prosper, each doctrine needs some irreducible, constant element that represents its distinct identity and that cannot change without the doctrine losing its essential character. Nationalism must hold out sovereignty, the safeguarding and if possible the expansion of a territory, a language and a race as the chief goals of policy. If it did not, it would no longer be nationalism but something else. Socialism appears in many guises, but all its versions have at least one common, inalterable feature, namely the insistence that all wealth is created by society, not by individual members of it. Society is entitled to distribute wealth in whatever way fits its conception of justice. Common ownership of the means of production and equality of wellbeing are derivatives of this basic thesis. It is my contention that liberalism has never had such an irreducible and unalterable core element. As a doctrine, it has always been rather loose, tolerant of heterogeneous components, easy to influence, easy to infiltrate by alien ideas that are in fact inconsistent with any coherent version of it. One is tempted to say that liberalism cannot protect itself because its "immune system" is too weak. Current usage of the words "liberal" and "liberalism" is symptomatic of the Protean character of what the names are meant to signify. "Classical" liberalism is about the desirability of limited government and what goes by the name of laissez faire combined with a broad streak of utilitarianism that calls not for limited, but for active government. American liberalism is mainly concerned with race, homosexuality, abortion, victimless crimes and in general with "rights". In mid-Atlantic English, a liberal is what most Europeans would call a social democrat, while in French "liberal" is a pejorative word, often meant as an insult, and "liberalism" is a farrago of obsolete fallacies that only the stupid or the dishonest have the audacity to profess. These disparate usages do not have much in common. It should not surprise us that they do not. Loose doctrine on loose foundations Much of its lack of a firm identity is explained by liberalism's foundations. At its deepest, the doctrine seems to spring from the love of liberty. In more philosophical language, liberty is a value - final or instrumental - that we hold dear. All the superstructure of liberalism is made to rest on this easily acceptable value judgment. However, liberty is not the sole value, - not even the sole political value. It has many rivals; security of person and property, security of subsistence, equality of all kinds, protection for the weak against the strong, the progress of knowledge and the arts, glory and greatness spring to mind, and the list could be virtually endless. Many if not most of these values can only be realised at the cost of curtailing freedom. It is contrary to the liberal spirit of tolerance and love of liberty to try and reject these values and to dispute anyone's freedom to cherish some of them even at the expense of freedom. The love of liberty allows tradeoffs between it and other things. How much freedom should be given up for how much security or equality or any other worthy objective that at least some people want to achieve, is obviously a subjective matter, my value against your value, my argument against yours. Disagreement is legitimate. From this foundation, therefore, the evolution of the doctrine tends towards allowing rival values
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more and more Lebensraum, to incorporate and co-opt them. What surfaces is a variable mish-mash, all things to all men. Utilitarianism and the Harm Principle This evolution, almost predestined by the dependence of the doctrine on value judgments, was pushed further forward by the teachings of the three most influential theorists of classical liberalism, Bentham, James Mill and John Stuart Mill. They made one-man-one-vote and the good of the greatest number into an imperative of political morality, establishing a wholly arbitrary, if not downright self-contradictory, linkage between democracy and liberalism. This linkage has since achieved the status of a self-evident truth. It is being repeated with parrot-like docility in modern political discourse, and is doing much to empty liberalism of any firm identity. They also bear much of the responsibility for endowing liberalism with a utilitarian agenda. Liberal politics became a politics of betterment in all directions. There is always an inexhaustible fund of good ideas for improving things by reforming and changing institutions, making new laws, new regulations and perhaps above all by constantly adjusting the distribution of wealth and income so as to make it yield more "total utility". John Stuart Mill has quite explicitly laid down that while the production of wealth was governed by economic laws, its distribution was for society to decide. Utilitarianism made this not only legitimate, but actually mandatory, for failing to increase total utility by redistributing incomes is to fail doing the good that you could do. A mandate for overall betterment is, of course, a sure recipe for unlimited government. Many defenders of classical liberalism interpret Mill's famous Harm Principle as the safeguard against precisely this tendency of utilitarian thought. The principle looks like a barrier to the state's boundless growth. "...the only purpose for which power can be rightfully exercised over any member of a civilised community against his will" - states Mill - " is to prevent harm to others".1 However, what constitutes harm and how much harm justifies the use of state power, are inherently subjective matters of judgment. There is a vast area of putative or real externalities which some regard as grounds for government interference while others consider that they are simply facts of life, to be left to sort themselves out. The harm principle, being wide open to interpretation, is progressively expanding its domain. Today, omission is amalgamated with commission. "Not helping someone is to harm him"; the harm principle is invoked by certain modern political philosophers to make it mandatory for the state to force the well off to assist those who would be harmed by the lack of assistance. There may well be strong arguments for forcing some people to help others, but it is surprising to find one that is supposed to be quintessentially liberal. Observing the effects of good intentions is often a matter for bitter irony. Locke tried with his innocent-looking proviso to prove the legitimacy of ownership and succeeded in undermining its moral basis. J.S. Mill thought that he was defending liberty, but what he achieved was to shackle it in strands of confusion. 1 J.S.Mill, On Liberty, ch.I., para 9.
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Strict Liberalism In order to prevent it from becoming indistinguishable from socialism, unprincipled pragmatism or just plain ad-hockery, liberalism must become more strict. It needs different foundations, and its structure must be made minimal and simple, so as better to resist the penetration of alien elements. I suggest that two basic propositions, one logical and one moral, suffice to construct a new, stricter liberal doctrine capable of defending its identity. One is the presumption of freedom, the other the rejection of the rules of submission that imply the obligation of political obedience. The Presumption of Freedom The presumption of freedom should be understood to mean that any act a person wishes to perform is deemed to be free - not to be interfered with, regulated, taxed or punished - unless sufficient reason is shown why it should not be free. Some deny that there is, or ought to be, such a presumption2. However, the presumption is not a matter of opinion or evaluation that can be debated and denied. It is a strict logical consequence of the difference between two means of testing the validity of a statement, namely falsification and verification. There may be an indefinite number of potential reasons that speak against an act you wish to perform. Some may be sufficient, valid, others (perhaps all) insufficient, false. You may falsify them one by one. But no matter how many you succeed in falsifying, there may still be some left and you can never prove that there are none left. In other words, the statement that this act would be harmful is unfalsifiable. Since you cannot falsify it - putting on you the burden of proving that it would be harmless is nonsensical, a violation of elementary logic. On the other hand, any specific reason objectors may advance against the act in question is verifiable. If they have such reasons, the burden of proof is on them to verify that some or all of them are in fact sufficient to justify interference with the act. All this seems trivially simple. In fact, it is simple, but not trivial. On the contrary, it is of decisive importance in conditioning the intellectual climate, the "culture" of a political community. The presumption of liberty must be vigorously affirmed, if only to serve as an antidote against the spread of "rightsism" that would contradict and undermine it, and that has done so much to distort and emasculate liberalism in recent decades. "Rightsism" purports solemnly to recognise that people have "rights" to do certain specific things and that certain other things ought not to be done to them. On closer analysis, these "rights" turn out to be the exceptions to a tacitly understood general rule that everything else is forbidden; for if it were not, announcing "rights" to engage in free acts would be redundant and pointless. The silliness that underlies "rightsism", and the appalling effect it exerts upon the political climate, illustrates how far the looseness of current liberal thought can drift away from a more strict structure that would serve the cause of liberty instead of stifling it in pomposity and confusion. 2 Notably Joseph Raz, The Morality of Freedom, Oxford 1986 , The Clarendon Press, pp.8-12
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The Rule of Submission "The king in his council has expressed his will, and his will shall be obeyed by all" is a rule of submission. So are the rules that required the citizens of Venice to obey the Signoria, that gave the power to make laws to a majority of a legislature and the power to elect legislators to a majority of voters. The latter of these rules are more "democratic" than the former, but they all share the same essential feature: the obligation of all in a community to submit to the decisions of only some of them. Moreover, every such rule imposes the obligation to submit to decisions reached by certain persons in certain ways so to speak in advance, before knowing what those decisions are in fact going to be. Reasons of practical expediency can be found why this must be so if the business of government is to be transacted. The reasons may be good ones, but the rule they call for is no less outrageous for all that. Submission can be morally acceptable if it is voluntary, and voluntary submission by rational individuals is conceivable on a case-by-case basis, on the merits of particular propositions. As a general rule, that amounts to signing a blank cheque, however, it can hardly be both voluntary and rational. If a general rule of submission is necessary for governing, - which it might well be - then the legitimacy of government, any type of government, turns out to be morally indefensible. Does this mean that strict liberals cannot loyally accept the government of their country as legitimate, and are in effect advocating anarchy? Logically, the answer to both questions must be "yes", but it is a "yes" whose practical consequences are necessarily constrained by the realities of our social condition. Orderly social practices that coordinate individual behaviour so as to produce reasonably efficient and peaceful cooperation, can be imposed by law and regulation. Today, many of our practices are in fact so imposed, - many, but not all. Some important and many less vital yet useful ones are matters of convention. Unlike a law that must rely on the rule of submission, a convention is voluntary. It is a spontaneously emerging equilibrium in which everybody adopts a behaviour that will produce the best result for him given the behaviour that he anticipates everybody else to adopt. In this reciprocal adjustment to each other, nobody can depart from the equilibrium and expect to profit from it, because he will expect to be punished for it by others also departing from the equilibrium. Unlike a law that depends on enforcement, a convention is thus self-enforcing. Its moral standing is assured because it preserves voluntariness. David Hume was the first major philosopher systematically to identify conventions in general, and two particularly vital conventions, that of property and of promising in particular. Hayek's fundamental idea of the "spontaneous order" can best be understood in terms of conventions. We owe the rigorous explanation of the self-enforcing nature of conventions to John Nash, and more recent developments in game theory show that conflict-ridden social cooperation problems formerly believed to be "dilemmas" requiring state intervention, in fact have potential solutions in conventions.
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The Strictly Liberal Agenda It is easy to describe plausible scenarios in which spontaneous conventions emerge to suppress torts and protect life and limb, property and contract3. However, such scenarios are written on a blank page, whilst in reality the page is already covered with what the past has written on it. In the West, at least two centuries of ever more elaborate legislation, regulation, taxation and public services, - in short, recourse to the rule of submission - have bred a reliance on the state for securing social cooperation. Society has therefore less need for the old conventions, and its muscles for maintaining old conventions and generating new ones have atrophied. In the face of this reality, it is probably vain to expect the collapse of a state to be followed by the emergence of ordered anarchy. The likeliest scenario is perhaps the emergence of another state, possibly nastier than its predecessor. This limits the practical agenda of strict liberalism. Despite the logic of the thesis that the state is intrinsically unnecessary, and the attractiveness of ordered anarchy, it is hardly worth the effort to advocate the abolition of the state. But it is worth the effort constantly to challenge its legitimacy. The pious lie of a social contract must not be allowed to let the state complacently to take the obedience of its subjects too much for granted. There is a built-in mechanism in democracy for the state to buy support from some by abusing the rule of submission and exploiting others. Loose liberalism has come to call this social justice. The best strict liberalism can do is to combat this intrusion of the state step by step, at the margin where some private ground may yet be preserved and where some public ground may perhaps even be regained. 30 October 2003 3 Cf. Jasay, Against Politics, London 1997 , Routledge, Ch.9 , "Conventions: Some Thoughts on the Economics of Ordered Anarchy".

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Friday, 19 March 2004

>> KHAN CON CONTINUED...


Exposing the web of nuclear WMD: The Khan con...
Mark Alexander (archive)

March 19, 2004 | Print | Send

(This is the second of a two-part commentary on how the CIA scooped the nuclear WMD black-market.)

"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle."
--Sun Tzu (6th century B.C. Chinese general) in "The Art of War"

The United States is at war. Since 1993, the year of the first Islamist attack on the World Trade Center, our homeland has been a frontline in the war with Jihadistan, a borderless alliance of Islamist groups with global reach, who are relentlessly targeting the U.S. as surrogates for Islamic nation states. While orthodox Muslims (those conforming to the teachings of the "pre-Medina" Quran) do not support acts of terrorism or mass murder, very large sects within the Islamic world are indoctrinated with the "post-Mecca" Quran and Hadith (Mohammed's teachings). These are the writings that call for "Jihad" or "Holy War" against all "the enemies of God." Hence, "Jihadistan," or "nation of holy war."

In the war to deter Jihadistan terror, there are two recurrent themes in President George W. Bush's leadership as Commander-in-Chief (his primary Constitutional role). First, he has emphasized that we must know our enemy and endeavor to keep the warfront on their turf. Second, President Bush has rightly insisted that we must know ourselves -- that we must not lose our resolve to conduct this war in defense of our nation and our national interests.

On the first count, we have, thus far, succeeded. While Leftist politicos and their Leftmedia minions are loath to give credit where credit is due, it is nothing short of remarkable that, since 9/11, our Armed Forces, and the multitude of agencies supporting them, have prevented any further catastrophic attacks on U.S. soil.

On the second count, however, our nation's resolve is at great risk of being undermined by President Bush's political opponent, Leftist agitator John Kerry, who should think twice about starting every stump-speech by questioning our presence in Afghanistan and Iraq. Doing so only serves to endanger our forces in those regions -- and the security of our homeland -- by undermining U.S. resolve.

Like his mentor Ted Kennedy, Kerry has suggested that the rationale for Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom was cooked up by the administration and the CIA -- that there are no WMD and, consequently, no looming threats against the United States. But Kerry and Kennedy et al. are wrong -- dead wrong -- and their use of our military campaign against Jihadistan as political campaign fodder is not only unconscionable -- it is, potentially, calamitous.

In his 2002 State of the Union speech, George Bush exercised little ambiguity in putting the "Axis of Evil" on notice: "North Korea is a regime arming with...weapons of mass destruction.... Iran aggressively pursues these weapons and exports terror.... Iraq continues to flaunt its hostility toward America and to support terror. The Iraqi regime has plotted to...develop nuclear weapons for over a decade. ... States like these, and their terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world. By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger. ...[T]he price of indifference would be catastrophic."

Notably, President Bush added, "We will work closely with our coalition to deny terrorists and their state sponsors the materials, technology, and expertise to make and deliver weapons of mass destruction." Now fast-forward two years to the nuclear WMD web linking Pakistan, Libya, Iran, Iraq and North Korea, a network of terror that has been incrementally exposed in the last 60 days. How is it that revelations about the status of nuclear WMD development programs in these nations has suddenly surfaced?

Subsequent analysis by The Federalist leads us to conclude that the CIA (much-maligned by Kerry and Kennedy, who suggest the agency failed to provide accurate estimates of Iraq's undiscovered WMD) succeeded in a high-stakes "takeover" of the nuclear black market prior to 2002. It's an operation that is largely responsible for exposing the aforementioned Islamic web of nuclear WMD development -- and a success that will likely remain unheralded beyond this column.

As we noted last week, the most recent WMD revelation was the International Atomic Energy Agency's "discovery" of advanced uranium-enrichment equipment (gaseous centrifuge technology) at an air force base outside Tehran. That equipment was found to have traces of uranium refined to 90% of isotope 235, which has applications only in limited space reactors such as those in nuclear submarines -- and nuclear bombs. (We're quite certain Iran is not preparing to launch a nuclear submarine.)

Did Iran construct this particular component of advanced nuclear refinement technology? It's doubtful. While Iran has its own successful nuclear WMD program, the source of the recently discovered equipment was very likely North Korea, by way of Iraq. Two years ago in Federalist No. 02-42, we reported that the enriched uranium at the core of North Korea's nuclear WMD program was the product of gas centrifuge technology. Our sources tell us there is substantial evidence that North Korea transferred that technology to Iraq in the last decade.

Iraq, after all, had plenty of time, compliments of the French and French-fortified hand-wringers in the UN, to spirit the bulk of its biological and nuclear WMD into Iran and Syria prior to the coalition invasion last March. (You'll recall that when the coalition's Desert Storm invasion of Iraq was imminent in 1991, Saddam transferred his frontline squadrons of fighters to Iran.)

Of course, some still have their head in the sand, insisting that Iraq had no active nuclear WMD programs in recent years. (Ironically, that is precisely where some elements of his WMD programs likely remain concealed -- in the sand.) For example, as we noted in Federalist No. 03-28, the CIA recovered gas-centrifuge components from Iraqi nuclear scientist Mahdi Shukur Obeidi, who had buried the hardware in his back yard prior to the coalition's invasion of Iraq last year.

Who, then, is the common denominator of these various nuclear WMD programs, and what does he have to do with the CIA? He is Abdul Qadeer Khan who was, until his role in trading nuclear technology was recently exposed, Pakistan's top nuclear scientist, and the father of the "Islamic bomb." Khan collected most of his nuclear know-how from Western Europe and China over the last 20 years.

It is the considered opinion of our analysts that all these recent WMD revelations are the direct result of a covert operation to cultivate operatives in the nuclear black marketplace, particularly Khan, and ultimately control a substantial part of that market in an effort to track sellers and buyers.

While it is not yet clear what the exact nature of the relationship between Khan and the CIA was, suffice it to say that our analysts believe he was either working for the CIA in the latter years of his proliferation endeavors -- or his actions as the nuclear WMD black-market kingpin were transparent to the CIA -- for at least the past four years, and possibly for the last decade.

Contrary to President Bush's assertion that the U.S. would "work closely with our coalition to deny terrorists and their state sponsors the materials, technology, and expertise to make and deliver weapons of mass destruction," we believe the CIA either conned Khan, or used him as the con in a covert operation to provide "materials, technology, and expertise" in an effort to determine which state-sponsors of terrorism were buying nuclear WMD components, and the current stage of their nuclear WMD program development.

It's an old ruse: If you want to know who the distributors and customers are, and how far they have advanced their programs and networks, set up your own shop, undercut the competition, and they'll line up at your door. We believe that is precisely what the CIA did, using Khan wittingly or unwittingly, in setting up one of the most brilliant -- and high-stakes -- con games ever.

Khan apparently operated with the full knowledge of Pakistani President (and former general) Pervez Musharraf, who granted Khan a full pardon after his activities were exposed last month. Khan outsourced a significant amount of production work to Malaysia, centering on one B.S.A. Tahir, a prominent businessman with Malaysia's Scomi Precision Engineering. Last month, speaking at the National Defense University, President Bush identified Tahir as the "chief financial officer and money launderer" of A.Q. Khan's black market ring. Indeed, it was Scomi precision-manufactured centrifuge parts that were seized in the Mediterranean aboard the BCC China late last year, en route to Libya.

Regarding North Korea's role, NSA Condoleezza Rice notes that details of Khan's con were having a profound impact upon the United States' ability to confront and negotiate with Pyongyang. "Now the North Koreans should also recognize that, with the unraveling of these proliferation networks, the A.Q. Khan network, what the Libyans are now freely admitting and talking about, that their admissions and what they say is not the only source of information about what's going on in North Korea," said Dr. Rice. "And it's probably a good time for the North Koreans to come clean."

Like any good sting operation, when it was determined by the CIA that all the information that could be gleaned from the Khan con had been collected -- prior to the transfer of any nuclear weapons to terrorist surrogates -- the CIA, through international channels, exposed the operation and put all Khan's clients on immediate notice that the extent of their nuclear WMD programs is a matter of record with the CIA.

Of course, all Khan's Islamic customers know that in the heart of the Middle East right now, within easy striking distance of any of them, is a substantial U.S. and coalition military force. In light of this fact, what can we make of Libya's sudden surrender of all its nuclear components a few weeks ago?

Mere coincidence? We think not.

George W. Bush has proven himself an outstanding Commander-in-Chief, and the CIA, should it ever acknowledge this operation, will certainly redeem itself in regard to its successful endeavor to track nuclear WMD. That notwithstanding, perhaps the greatest immediate threat to U.S. national security and sovereignty is not al-Qa'ida and company; rather, it is those among us whose phony political rhetoric is weakening our national resolve.

Quote of the week...

"Terrorists will kill innocent life in order to try to get the world to cower. That's what they want to do. And they'll never shake the will of the United States."
--George W. Bush

On the Warfront with Jihadistan....

Today marks the one-year anniversary of the onset of our taking the war with Jihadistan onto the Iraqi battlefields. (For as snapshot of what has changed in the last year, visit Iraq: Now vs. Then. The date has not gone unmarked, as Jihadis have taken the war to Europe. The coordinated bombings of Madrid trains late last Thursday, now almost certainly plotted al-Qa'ida-linked Islamists, with or without the help of Basque separatists, clearly had the desired effect -- it influenced a national election. The Popular Party, whose leader Jose Maria Aznar had been a stalwart ally in the war with the Jihadis, went down in an upset defeat to the Socialist Party, led by Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero.

Not having sought reelection himself, Sr. Aznar became the first Spanish head of state to leave office without revolution or coercion since the abdication of Charles V in 1556. Can we hope as much from PM Zapatero?

Aside from announcing that he will not attempt to form a coalition government, but rule on a straight Socialist platform, PM-elect Zapatero announced his intent to pull out all Spanish troops from participation in the "coalition of the willing" safeguarding Iraq. Zapatero went so far as to mischaracterize the freeing of the Iraqi people, saying, "The occupation is...a fiasco." Occupation? What occupation?

Zapatero further signaled a return to head-in-the-sand postures in dealing with the terrorists. "Terrorism is combated by the state of law. ... That's what I think Europe and the international community have to debate." This preferred European stance on terrorism -- treating it as a matter for police investigation and prosecution rather than a war -- is, by the way, the same method preferred by Candidate John Kerry.

And who is Zapatero's preferred candidate in the U.S. presidential race? "We're aligning ourselves with Kerry. ...Our alliance will be for peace, against war, no more deaths for oil, and for a dialogue between the government of Spain and the new Kerry administration. ...I think Kerry will win. I want Kerry to win." (This gives Kerry two public endorsements from foreign leaders: Kim Jung Il, North Korea's Communist dictator and all-round fruitcake, threatening to provide terrorists with nuclear WMD; and now a Socialist intent on appeasing those very same terrorists. Congratulations, Comrade Kerry!)

While some -- including the majority of Spanish voters -- chided Aznar's government for pinning early blame on ETA, the Basque terrorist group, before indicating Islamist involvement, the facts are more sobering. The combination of ETA and al-Qa'ida m.o.'s, together with a growing body of evidence, points to the possibility of a combined operation by the two terror groups -- both intent on the overthrow of western governments.


Mark Alexander is Executive Editor and Publisher of The Federalist, a Townhall.com member group.

?2004 The Federalist

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Annan: U.N.-Iraq Oil-For-Food Faces Probe
By BARBARA BORST
ASSOCIATED PRESS

UNITED NATIONS (AP) -

Secretary-General Kofi Annan announced plans Friday for an independent commission to investigate alleged corruption in the Iraq oil-for-food program.

Annan revealed his decision to go beyond a current internal U.N. probe Friday night in a letter to the Security Council.

The world organization has been hit with allegations that U.N. staff may have reaped millions of dollars from the oil-for-food program that helped Iraqis cope with U.N. sanctions.

U.S. congressional investigators have also looked into the program, charging this week that Saddam Hussein's government smuggled oil, added surcharges and collected kickbacks to rake in $10.1 billion in violation of the United Nations' oil-for-food program.

The U.N. chief said in the letter he wants "an independent, high-level inquiry to investigate the allegations relating to the administration and management of the program, including allegations of fraud and corruption."

Annan's letter didn't elaborate on how an independent probe would be handled. He said he would address this in a further letter.

Annan told journalists that he had been talking with Security Council members about the scope of the investigation and the need for international cooperation to make it effective.

"I think we need to have an independent investigation, an investigation that can be as broad as possible to look into all these allegations which have been made and get to the bottom of this because I don't think we need to have our reputation impugned," Annan said earlier Friday.

Annan indicated he didn't need security council approval for the probe, but said he wanted its support.

The oil-for-food program was established by the U.N. Security Council in December 1996 to help the Iraqi population cope with U.N. sanctions imposed after Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

The program, which ended in November, allowed the former Iraqi regime to sell unlimited quantities of oil, provided the money went primarily to buy humanitarian goods and pay reparations to victims of the 1991 Gulf War.

The request followed publication in the Iraqi newspaper Al-Mada of a list of about 270 former Cabinet officials, legislators, political activists and journalists from more than 46 countries suspected of profiting from Iraqi oil sales.

U.N. officials have said that they would not comment on the U.S. figure of $10 billion by congressional investigators unless there was "a comprehensive investigation of all aspects of the oil-for-food program, not just U.N. personnel, but what governments and companies did."

"Any such investigation would require the support of the Security Council, and the secretary-general has already indicated this week he has been talking to members of the council" about expanding the inquiry, U.S. spokesman Fred Eckhard said Thursday.

The United Nations has already sent two letters to the Iraqi Governing Council and the U.S.-led coalition requesting evidence of corruption in the program - the latest a week ago.

In late January, the Governing Council asked the country's Oil Ministry to gather information on allegations that Saddam Hussein's regime bribed prominent foreigners with oil money to back his government.

During the program, Saddam's government decided on the goods it wanted, who should provide them and who could buy Iraqi oil. The Security Council committee monitoring sanctions checked the contracts, primarily for dual-use items that could be used to make weapons.

"We certainly knew there was skimming by Saddam and his cronies but with regard to U.N. officials, no," a U.S. official told The Associated Press Thursday, speaking on condition of anonymity. "We certainly hope there are no U.N. officials involved, but if there are some involved, then they should be held accountable."
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Spaniards Offended by Wolfowitz Comment
By ANDREW SELSKY
ASSOCIATED PRESS

MADRID, Spain (AP) -

From a fire station to a Madrid bar brimming with bullfighting paraphernalia, Spaniards said Friday they were offended by a senior Pentagon official's remark that bullfighting shows they are a brave people and they shouldn't run in the face of terrorism.

They saw the comment by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz as narrow-minded and promoting a stereotype.

"This is an ignorant comment," snapped Madrid firefighter Juan Carlos Yunquera, sitting on a bench outside his firehouse. "For a top official, it shows he doesn't know what he's talking about."

Yunquera, who heard the American official's remarks on the radio, pointed out that Spaniards overwhelmingly opposed the war in Iraq, even as Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar joined President Bush's "coalition of the willing" a year ago and later contributed troops for the occupation.

Islamic extremists have reputedly claimed responsibility for last week's Madrid rail bombings, which killed 202 people, as punishment for Aznar's stance on Iraq.

Prime Minister-designate Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero - whose party won general elections Sunday - has insisted he would withdraw Spain's 1,300 troops from Iraq unless the United Nations takes charge. It was a campaign pledge he made long before the bombings, Spain's worst terror attack.

In an interview on PBS television Thursday, Wolfowitz said Zapatero's withdrawal plan didn't seem very Spanish.

"The Spaniards are courageous people. I mean, we know it from their whole culture of bullfighting," Wolfowitz said. "I don't think they run in the face of an enemy. They haven't run in the face of the Basque terrorists. I hope they don't run in the face of these people."

Carlota Duce, a waitress at the Retinto Bar, where a bullfighting sword, lance and hat hung on a wall above patrons sipping beer and eating tapas, said she had no use for such comments.

"It's drivel," she said above the strumming of flamenco guitar on the stereo. "There is absolutely no comparison between bullfighting and Spain pulling out of Iraq."

Bartender Oliver Iglesias found a kernel of truth in Wolfowitz's words.

"We are indeed very brave," he said. "But no one here likes the war in Iraq. And there's a big difference between killing a bull and killing a person."

Gustavo de Aristegui, a legislator and spokesman in parliament for Aznar's Popular Party, also criticized Wolfowitz, saying: "A top-ranking politician should be more careful about the remarks he makes, and that's all I'm going to say about Mr. Wolfowitz."

Yunquera, the firefighter, said he was annoyed that Wolfowitz even mentioned bullfighting.

"I've never liked bullfighting," he said. "If I was to describe Spain, I would say Spain is a tolerant and joyful country and not even mention bullfighting."


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KERRY CALLED SECRET SERVICE AGENT 'SON OF A B*TCH' AFTER SLOPE SPILL

Dem presidential candidate John Kerry called his secret service agent a "son of a bitch" after the agent inadvertently moved into his path during a ski mishap in Idaho, sending Kerry falling into the snow.

When asked a moment later about the incident by a reporter on the ski run, Kerry said sharply, "I don't fall down," the "son of a b*itch knocked me over."

The Secret Service agent in question has complained about Kerry's treatment, top sources tell the DRUDGE REPORT.

Last month, Kerry began receiving Secret Service protection.

"Obviously, the complications and burden of being monitored 24-hours a day is not just an a simple inconvenience," a government source explained Friday. "But Senator Kerry should understand agents are working for his safety and well-being."

On Friday, Kerry, his snowboard strapped to his back, hiked past 9,000 feet on Durrance Peak, then snowboarded down the mountain, taking repeated tumbles. Reporters counted six falls, although Kerry was out of sight for part of the descent.

Developing...

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Filed By Matt Drudge
Reports are moved when circumstances warrant
http://www.drudgereport.com for updates

Posted by maximpost at 11:52 PM EST
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