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BULLETIN
Sunday, 21 March 2004

>> WMD SEARCH? WHERE?

SPEAKING FREELY
N Korea's nukes - planted right under the DMZ?
By Michael G Gallagher

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.

SEOUL - The Beijing talks over North Korea's nuclear-weapons program ended inconclusively, and among the many issues those talks failed to resolve was one question that has probably bedeviled US and South Korean military strategists for years: Exactly where is the shadowy North Korean regime hiding its still tiny nuclear (one hopes) arsenal?

The answer might be lying quietly in a tunnel right underneath the feet of the American and South Korean soldiers guarding the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that separates the democratic South from the Stalinist North.

Digging under an enemy's position to outflank his defenses is an age-old military tactic. King Ashurnasirpal II of Assyria (circa 880 BC) used tunneling as a tactic to undermine an opponent's fortifications. Using iron tools, his soldiers would excavate a chamber under an enemy's walls, then brace its roof with timber supports. The wooden supports were then burned, causing the chamber and the structure above it to collapse. Both Alexander the Great and Julius Caesar used mining in their many campaigns.

Readers may be familiar with a more recent example of military mining if they have seen the American Civil War drama Cold Mountain. In one of the movie's pivotal scenes, the Union forces during the siege of Petersburg try, and fail, to blow a hole through the Confederate trench line with a huge gunpowder mine.

Viet Minh planted tunnel bomb under Dien Bien Phu
Mining as an active military tactic was used as late as the mid-20th century. In 1954, during the final assault on the French positions at Dien Bien Phu, the Viet Minh attackers exploded a one-ton TNT (2,4,6-trinitrotoluene) mine under the French stronghold, Elaine 2. While the mine failed to explode completely, the partial detonation was still a grave psychological blow to Dien Bien Phu's isolated defenders.

Planning to blow up the enemy's position from below went nuclear during the Cold War. Both the United States and the old Soviet Union had nuclear land mines. One type of atomic land mine fielded by the US military was SADM - special atomic demolition munition. Weighing 163 pounds, or 73 kilograms, SADM had an explosive yield of up to one kiloton. It was part of the US nuclear arsenal from 1966 until 1986.

So it is entirely plausible that the North Koreans have placed one or more nuclear land mines under the DMZ. This possibility is made even more likely by the fact that the North Koreans are among the world's champion diggers.

Between 1974 and 1990, four tunnels were discovered running underneath the DMZ. These tunnels had electric lights, railroad tracks and turnarounds for vehicles. One tunnel even had a small underground plaza in which troops could be marshaled in formation. The tunnels were large enough to allow the infiltration of up to 30,000 troops per hour, including tanks and artillery, into South Korean territory. Some South Korean analysts say there may be at least 20 more tunnels as yet undiscovered.

Kim Il-sung ordered underground hideaways
Burrowing deep underground was the brainchild of the founder of the North Korean state, the late dictator Kim Il-sung. At one point during his rule he apparently ordered that each Korean People's Army division stationed along the DMZ should dig at least two tunnels. Apart from the already mentioned tunnels boring under the DMZ, North Korea might have anywhere from 11,000-14,000 other underground hideaways.

Planting a nuclear bomb in a tunnel under the DMZ would be a cheap and effective delivery system for a poverty-stricken country such as North Korea. Buried bombs would also be an almost foolproof backup system for what may be a marginally successful missile-development program.

In 1998, North Korea flew a Taepongdo-1 long-range ballistic missile over Japan. While it sowed alarm in Seoul, Washington and Tokyo, the test itself was only a partial success, with the rocket's third stage failing to ignite properly. Another weapon, the shorter-range Nodong missile, had only one successful test launch during the 1990s. In 2003, the North Koreans conducted two additional missile tests, but these involved short-range, anti-shipping cruise missiles, weapons that posed no strategic threat to the United States and its Asian allies.

Controlling a tunnel bomb would be very simple. During the 1950s, the British government initiated the Blue Peacock project to build nuclear land mines. Products of the Cold War, Blue Peacock mines were to be buried along the projected wartime invasion routes for Russian tanks into what was then West Germany. The classified - its existence wasn't revealed until last July - Blue Peacock project was eventually canceled because of insurmountable environmental and political problems. Still, one aspect of Blue Peacock should alarm anybody who is worried about nuclear-armed moles lurking under the DMZ.

Vengeance from beyond the grave
Blue Peacock mines would have had two methods of detonation: one method was detonation by wire from as far as five kilometers away; the other technique for exploding a Blue Peacock mine was to use a timer, which could have been set for up to eight days before firing. The idea of vengeance from beyond the grave would fit very well with the ultra-tough image the North Koreans often like to project.

Even the idea of a North Korean tunnel bomb, which could be shunted among an unknown number of locations, might be enough to wring some very expensive concessions from the US and its allies during any future talks with Pyongyang.

A North Korean tunnel bomb, if it exists, would also weaken the case of the US administration for the construction a national missile defense system. The threat of North Korea's ballistic-missile program is one of the White House's main rationales for building such a system. The revelation that Kim Jong-il had outfoxed the American neo-cons by mounting a bomb on a rickety, Soviet-era flatbed truck and driving it under the DMZ would cause loud cries of laughter among the opponents of a US missile defense system, not only in Washington, but also in other world capitals.

Michael G Gallagher, PhD, works at Namseoul University, South Korea.

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.

>> HUGGING PERVEZ 2...


Powell pleased, India perplexed
By Sultan Shahin

NEW DELHI - US Secretary of State Colin Powell couldn't help but be impressed during his just-concluded South Asia visit with the positive result of his efforts in the past two years to further peace between two nuclear neighbors, India and Pakistan. There is an extraordinary atmosphere of goodwill in the subcontinent with the resumption of official-level dialogue and confidence-building measures such as the resumption of travel, transport and, above all, cricketing ties.

But when the time came for the United States to distribute rewards for good behavior, India received a bit of a shock. Before Powell's visit, speculation in Delhi was about what rewards India - the peacemaker and responsible nuclear power - would be granted and what punishment Pakistan would receive for its mischief after the revelation that it had been proliferating weapons technology to so-called rogue nation Libya and the remaining members of the US-designated "axis of evil" - Iran and North Korea.

This isn't the way things panned out. It was the bad boy on the block who was rewarded, perhaps understandably so from the US point of view. After all, it is harder for the bad boys to reform. Pakistan has taken measures to stop infiltration of terrorists from its side of the Line of Control (LOC) that separates the Indian and Pakistani state of Jammu and Kashmir, promised to stop the nuclear-proliferation activities of its scientists. and is fighting the Taliban and al-Qaeda remnants within its borders.

But though Powell is mumbling a lot of sweet nothings, India is deeply disappointed. Instead of receiving a sharp rap on the knuckles, and a very well-deserved one too, the Pakistan military has been designated a major non-NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) military ally of the United States for the purpose of future military-to-military relations, facilitating its acquisition of military hardware and other goodies that were not available to Pakistan before. It will enhance military cooperation between the two countries dramatically. The tangible military benefits will include priority delivery of the US military's "excess defense articles".

Powell has assured India, however, that no decision had yet been made on selling F-16 aircraft to Pakistan. He has also said that the US is considering a similar relationship with India too.

Of course, India is rattled. Pakistan, though always a major non-NATO ally of the US, has now formally become part of a privileged group of countries that includes Australia, New Zealand, Israel, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Egypt and Argentina.

The timing of the move is very bad from the point of view of India's ruling party. One of the main planks in its re-election bid is the success it claims to have achieved in building close strategic ties with the United States. The special relationship with the sole superpower was an important part of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's "feel good" electoral package. The opposition will inevitably use this slight by the US to highlight the hollowness of the Indian government's claims.

To be fair, the United States is willing to reward India in a variety of ways as well. Washington has expressed a desire for India to participate in its controversial Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) and is beginning official-level discussions on how the Indian navy and air force can contribute to the US-led non-proliferation coalition established to stop "suspect" shipping on the high seas. The US is also trying to encourage Pakistan to bring about a permanent end to "cross-border violence" in Kashmir.

But the United States is also asking India to open up its markets further and outsource some of its services to the US, if it wants to continue to benefit from the outsourcing of US jobs to India. India's hopes that US President George W Bush's "Next Steps in the Strategic Partnership with India" would lead to easier access to US high technology have also been dashed. A senior US official stated recently that India would receive no substantial technology unless the US was satisfied that India had tightened export controls. The US had placed severe restrictions on the transfer of dual-use technologies, which have both civilian and military applications, to India after its 1974 nuclear tests.

Powell and the peace process
The first hiccup on the hitherto smooth peace process between India and Pakistan took place just a couple of days before Powell's visit. Vajpayee, who is seeking re-election nine months before it was due, was hoping to cash in on the peace process, which is immensely popular in the country - particularly among its 150 million Muslim population. The ruling Hindu fundamentalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is for the first time appealing for Muslim votes on the same ground.

But Pakistani President General General Pervez Musharraf once again emphasized the importance of Kashmir while addressing Indian strategic intellectuals through satellite. In his prepared speech last Saturday for an international conference organized by India Today magazine in New Delhi, Musharraf was more than explicit in restating his country's traditional position on Kashmir. In fact, the Pakistani president referred to Kashmir as the central issue of Indo-Pakistani relations a half-dozen times.

Musharraf also indicated that confidence-building measures would be held hostage depending on the progress of Kashmir, as recently happened in the case of official-level talks on resuming transport links between the Indian state of Rajasthan and the Pakistani state of Sindh. He made a thinly veiled call for the United States to broker a Kashmir solution if it really wants to dampen the fires of Islamic militancy. He even indirectly raised the United Nations plebiscite bogy, though he had himself discounted the possibility only a few months ago on the eve of the summit meeting of the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation held in Islamabad.

This is certainly not the first time Musharraf has changed his tune. Some observers have, however, blamed "provocative questioning" on the part of Indian strategic thinkers for his "combative demeanor". He is known to behave more like the trained commando that he essentially is than like a diplomat when under pressure. Indians wanted him to clarify his stand on Kashmir. He felt that Indians were implying that he was unnecessarily raising the Kashmir issue and, if so, they were divorced from the reality on the ground. Even if he himself wanted to, he said, he could not change the fact that Kashmir was the main dispute between India and Pakistan.

Musharraf may have wanted to pass a message to the United States as well. He may have wanted both India and the US not to be beguiled by the largely successful progress of peace talks and the general atmosphere of extraordinary bonhomie on the subcontinent with growing people-to-people contacts. The gentlemanly cricketing behavior of spectators of both the Karachi and Peshawar one-day matches has indeed earned a large measure of goodwill for Pakistan in India. Indian cricketers too appear to have won the hearts of Pakistani cricket fans, as per the advice of the Indian prime minister, who had specifically asked them to win not only matches but also Pakistani hearts. But Musharraf apparently doesn't want anyone to become too mesmerized by the goodwill generated by recent events and forget about Kashmir.

Not that anyone in India is enthralled by the peace atmospherics or Musharraf's promises. Indian forces are on alert as melting snow on the LOC eases the possibility of militant infiltration. Security officials in Jammu and Kashmir have constantly remained doubtful about Pakistan's commitment to completely end infiltration.

A senior army intelligence official told Asia Times Online that the real test of the promise of peace begins now that melting snow has opened up new routes for terrorist groups to replenish and reinforce their cadre in the state. Only two terrorists infiltrated in the month of February, but the figure was the same last year too, he said.

He was also hopeful, however, because infiltration would have begun picking up from the beginning of March in the absence of any peace initiative as had happened last year. The army did detect two simultaneous infiltration attempts on the night of March 3. Three of four terrorists who had come across from the Poonch district were killed, while one escaped. The forces recovered two AK rifles, currency and three cameras. The second attempt took place in Rajouri district near Thana Mandi. The security forces killed both terrorists belonging to the Lashkar-e-Taiba. Two AK rifles, currency, medicines and a radio set were recovered.

Only three groups were detected while attempting to enter the state from Pakistan until Monday, and eight militants belonging to them were killed. Two militants of a group trying to leave Kashmir and return to Pakistan were also intercepted and killed while trying to cross the border. Only if infiltration does indeed remain down in the coming weeks compared with previous years, one may be able to conclude that the Pakistani government is keeping its word. So far the prognostication is not bad.

From the remarks made by Powell, it is clear that the US too is watching the situation very carefully. Powell said in Delhi he would speak to Musharraf about taking action against terrorist camps. The dismantling of terrorist infrastructure from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir is a long-standing Indian demand. On whether Pakistan had taken steps to dismantle terrorist training camps, he said one of the "essential elements" of the recent agreement between India and Pakistan was an end to cross-border violence. Saying he was "pleased" that activity across the LOC had come down significantly, Powell added that he hoped it would stay that way. "We, of course, will be watching as the spring season approaches," he said, aware of Indian concerns about renewed infiltration once the snows melt.

Addressing a joint press conference with Indian External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha, Powell said he would also speak to Musharraf about "any involvement" of past Pakistani governments in nuclear proliferation, or anything "contemporary" in nature relating to what Washington refers to as the "A Q Khan network". Asked whether his comment that no decision had been made on selling F-16s to Pakistan reflected a shift in the Bush administration's position, Powell said: "My comment over here was that we have to take into consideration any requests that are made of us; but no decisions have been made with respect to any particular military package, especially F-16s." He said last year's US$3 billion economic aid package for Pakistan did not include F-16s.

Another area of major concern for India was what the US was doing to ensure that Pakistan was not able to continue its nuclear-proliferation activities. About the "role" of the Pakistani government in nuclear proliferation, Powell said: "We certainly know the role played by Dr [Abdul Qadeer] Khan for some time now ... We are pleased that Dr Khan has acknowledged what he has done and we are pleased that we are getting a great deal of information from Pakistani authorities as a result of their interrogation of Dr Khan and his associates." He said the "Khan network" was "being broken up", making it clear that more had to be done. "I think we have had a real breakthrough with what Dr Khan has acknowledged and our ability to roll up different parts of the network. We cannot be satisfied till the entire network is gone - branch and root."

Powell said he was confident that if Musharraf was determined to get to the heart of this network, then the residual elements could be dealt with. "With respect to who else was involved ... in past Pakistani governments or anything ... contemporary in nature, I will speak to President Musharraf about this," he said. "There is much more work to be done."

Meanwhile, Powell said he had had a "good discussion" with Sinha on Indian participation in the PSI. Stating that the US wanted India to participate in the security initiative, Powell said officials of the two countries would now discuss the issue. Meanwhile, according to Sinha, there was no discussion on India signing the International Atomic Energy Agency's Additional Protocol to curb nuclear proliferation. It was originally feared that the US would pressure India to sign.

Despite disappointment in India across the board, particularly on account of Pakistan being officially designated a major non-NATO ally of the US, some Indian observers are willing to take a more charitable view. The major newspaper Indian Express, for instance, commented in an editorial written before the announcement about Pakistan's new status: "What we need to remember is that the core interests of India and the US converge across a whole range of issues. But it would be unrealistic to believe that there will be no differences. There is a need, therefore, to ensure that divergences of perceptions, interests and policies between the two countries are also managed in a mature fashion as much as the convergences are taken forward from strength to strength. For example, unsolicited 'advice' from the US State Department on missile testing by India, when actually it was Pakistan that had tested missiles imported clandestinely, is not very helpful. Nor for that matter would equating outsourcing with the omnibus mantra of opening up the economy. In this context, Powell's reassurances to India on outsourcing are most welcome."

(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)

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Pakistan as a 'key non-NATO ally'
By Ehsan M Ahrari

US Secretary of State Colin Powell brought good news to Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf on Thursday. The United States will elevate its military relationship with Pakistan as a major ally outside of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). That is the ultimate reward for Musharraf's willingness not only to do a lot of heavy lifting to capture or kill the top al-Qaeda leadership, but also for risking the very stability of his country by getting so close to Washington. But risks for Pakistan might not be as heady as they appear at a glance. For India and China, the elevation of Pakistan by the Bush administration poses new questions.

From the vantage point of domestic politics in Pakistan, Musharraf's "never say no" attitude toward the United States' demands regarding its global "war on terrorism" is not likely to win him many friends. However, that is not to say that anti-Americanism is on the rise in Pakistan. The March 17 findings of the Pew Research Center underscore that America's image in Pakistan, Turkey and Russia has improved from its last survey of May 2003. As a general principle, a majority of Pakistanis are showing their revulsion against what al-Qaeda and its cohorts inside their own country represent. However, Musharraf still has to worry about the Islamists of his country and their commitment to Osama bin Laden's world view and to his primacy of jihad. Those Islamists have enough clout to cause ample trouble in certain sections of Pakistan. In addition, they will continue their anti-government and terrorist activities, including carrying out further assassination plots.

Pakistan's elevation as a key non-NATO ally by the administration of US President George W Bush is a diplomatic coup de theatre for the Musharraf government. From the perspectives of regional politics, Pakistan is likely to get special access to conventional weapons of all sophistication from the United States. For now, one can speculate that Pakistan will get the same treatment as Israel, Egypt, or Jordan. But in reality, Pakistan would do well if it could be treated on par with Egypt. No key ally of the US will be treated with the kind of generosity in the realms of economic and military assistance as Israel has been receiving from Washington since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.

Even in agreeing to go along with President Bush's recommendations for the transfer of weapons to Pakistan in the coming months, the US Congress will insist on heightened transparency from Islamabad regarding its nuclear-proliferation activities, and complete information on the nuclear-proliferation-related activities of Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan. That is an issue that will not go away for Musharraf.

India, China watch carefully
By elevating Pakistan as a key ally, the US will be forced to conduct a constant balancing act vis-a-vis its strategic partnership with India. That partnership has grown considerably and is not about to be unraveled, barring unforeseen mishaps. There is little doubt that New Delhi will apply its own behind-the-scenes pressure on Washington to elevate its own special strategic status further under the new circumstances. How far the US is willing to go in terms of accommodating India's strategic predilections will be determined by who is occupying the White House in January 2005. The global "war on terrorism" under John Kerry is not likely to take up as much of his energy as it has Bush's, barring no further terrorist incident in the United States. Thus, under a Kerry administration, India might enjoy a slight edge over Pakistan. More substantially, Washington's job of balancing the interests of India and Pakistan will be considerably easy if both South Asian nations succeed in keeping their mutual ties steady and free of tensions leading to a potential war.

China is certainly scratching its head over the implications of Pakistan's newly elevated strategic status for its own ties with that country. In the short run, Sino-Pakistani ties are not likely to be affected. However, in the long run - especially if Islamabad were to get even more economic and military benefits from Washington - the traditional Sino-Indian strategic rivalry might be revisited by Beijing and Delhi. There is little doubt that if Pakistan were to accrue the kind of military and economic payoffs that it expects to get from Washington, the strategic balance in South Asia will undergo a noteworthy mutation. Such a transformation would not be welcomed by New Delhi or Beijing, for different reasons.

India will not be appreciative of any changes in Pakistan's status in conventional arms. That is an area where India has assiduously built up its own superiority for the past 40 years. Beijing, for its part, does not want to lose Pakistan as a key partner in keeping India off balance in the Sino-Indian rivalry. Unbeknownst to Washington, by elevating Pakistan's status as a key ally, it has started a new era of strategic realignment, or at least a major reassessment toward a potential realignment. All in all, such a reassessment is not at all unwelcome, especially since it guarantees the role of the United States as a long-term balancer in South Asia.

Ehsan Ahrari, PhD, is an Alexandria, Virginia, US-based independent strategic analyst.

(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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>> FORGET SCOMI?

Malaysia's rulers poised for election victory
By Anil Netto

PENANG, Malaysia - Just a day left before polling day on March 21 and all indications are that Malaysia's ruling Barisan Nasional (BN, or National Front) coalition is poised for a comfortable victory. Political analysts predict that the coalition will have no problem retaining its commanding majority in parliament.

By all accounts, it has been a quiet and uneventful election campaign so far. Missing is the fever that election ceramahs (small public political gatherings) used to generate. The BN has exploited its control of the media to the hilt. It has also overrun the country with a public relations offensive that bears the mark of an intensive advertising campaign.

From billboards and television to radio and newspapers, the themes are the same. The tag line on the numerous ads resembles that of a cigarette ad: "Barisan Nasional: Excellence, Glory, Distinction."

The PR boys for the BN have been busy. The ads have consistently hammered home the message: Only the BN can bring peace and stability; vote BN for development and so on. There are slight variations, but that is the underlying theme.

Faced with this advertising onslaught, along with the lopsided pro-BN media coverage, the average Malaysian could be forgiven for thinking this is an election without any major issues. And that is exactly what the BN and the mainstream media under their spell want the voters to believe.

The mainstream media have contributed to the BN campaign by telling voters that the only real choice they face is a country under BN rule or "extremism". This plays into the fears largely prevalent among the non-Malay segments of the population - that the only real choice is between the "liberal" BN and the conservative brand of Islam espoused by Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS).

One full-page ad in The Star, the country's top-selling newspaper, carries the message: "No other party can keep Malaysia peaceful, united and secure. Especially against threats of terrorism. Let's continue to enjoy security, peace and unity."

The advertising blitz is not just from the BN. Even government-linked firms such as Malaysia Airlines and Tenaga Nasional Bhd, the electricity utility company, have jumped into the fray, carrying thinly disguised messages that coincide with the BN advertising themes.

Tenaga Nasional has a new corny commercial about a boy going to sleep at night as the lights go out. The ad was slipped in a few times during popular programs such as Late Show with David Letterman. As the boy falls asleep, the narrator comes on with these pearls of wisdom: "Goodnight, son ... Hmm, looks like another night in quiet ol' Malaysia - and thank goodness for that. Because we are a country with peace and special harmony that lets us sleep soundly at night. Now isn't that worth celebrating?"

The other main parties contesting the polls - PAS, the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Keadilan - have been struggling to get their message across with hardly any meaningful access to the media. The only avenues left for them are the ceramahs and the Internet. Because of the limited reach of these avenues, few Malaysians are aware of the larger issues confronting their country.

The opposition is handicapped because the issues they - especially the DAP and Keadilan - are advocating are intangible issues such as the lack of independence of the judiciary, the unlevel electoral playing field and the curbs on democracy.

And that suits the BN fine. It projects itself as the only party capable of bringing about "development". Voters buy into this argument without realizing that the only reason the BN can bring about development is that it has access to the country's resources and government machinery. The BN has successfully ingrained into the population that the BN = government and the "opposition" parties are only good at making noise.

The BN's main selling point is new Premier Abdullah Badawi, whose picture appears on posters across the country. On a single bus stop, it is not uncommon to find half a dozen large portraits of Abdullah dangling around. The sheer amount of resources spent on the BN poster, billboard and glossy-pamphlet campaign ensures that the opposition campaign is dwarfed. For some reason, many of the BN campaign materials were printed and produced in China and shipped back to Malaysia.

To be sure, Abdullah's softer image is a marked contrast to former premier Mahathir Mohamad's often caustic style. And Abdullah's anti-corruption drive has also caught the imagination of many Malaysians, probably due to the hype in the mainstream media.

But many Malaysians fail to realize that all the anti-corruption drive has to show so far are the arrests of a prominent has-been tycoon and a virtually unknown cabinet minister. They do not see that Abdullah's "Mr Nice" image has been tarnished by the fact that as home minister, he is responsible for the arrests under the harsh Internal Security Act, which permits detention without trial. More than 90 people are still in detention, a group of whom are on hunger strike, including two who have been hospitalized.

PAS has also accused BN's dominant United Malays National Organization of offering bribes to persuade PAS candidates to withdraw from the general election, a charge UMNO denies. The party reportedly claimed that two men offered RM100,000 (US$26,300) to PAS's Pasir Raja candidate, Sanip Ithnin, to withdraw his candidacy.

In the face of a hopeless situation for the other parties, it is understandable that there should be a distinct lack of campaign excitement. The most the other parties can hope for is to hold on to the gains achieved during the reformasi-charged polls of 1999. Apart from this, the opposition parties are also hoping to score upset wins in specific constituencies against high-ranking BN officials including those in the cabinet, while PAS is hoping to add to the two states it controls.

Among the constituencies that Malaysians are closely watching are the contest in Pekan in the central state of Pahang where Najib Razak, the caretaker deputy premier, is facing a PAS contender, and the Sungai Siput seat, where the caretaker works minister, Samy Vellu, is up against Keadilan's Jeyakumar Devaraj, a respiratory physician turned political activist.

All eyes will also be on how PAS performs - whether it will make any further inroads or be thwarted. Keadilan also faces a do-or-die battle to make sure it can hang on to the five seats it captured in the last election.

All said, and given the unlevel playing field, the outcome is predictable, with the only uncertainty being to what extent, if any, the opposition can make further inroads. In 1999, the BN won 56 percent of the popular vote yet maintained its two-thirds majority in parliament due to Malaysia's first-past-the-post (simple majority) electoral system. This time around, the BN's share of the popular vote is likely to reach 60 percent or more, though it is unlikely to reach as high as the 65 percent it achieved in 1995.

(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)

Posted by maximpost at 1:11 AM EST
Permalink

Inviting the Vampire
By Lee Harris Published 03/19/2004
According to legend, it is impossible for a vampire to enter your house unless you have invited him in. Last Sunday, the Spanish people invited a vampire to enter their house, and the question that now looms before them -- and the rest of Europe as well -- is how to get him back out.
The vampire is terror -- but not just the old homespun terrorism of the European past, but the radically new form of terror that came to the world's attention on 9/11, namely catastrophic terror.
Once upon a time, back in the nineteenth century, terrorism was used to assassinate harmless members of royal families, which meant that unless you were close to the throne, you had nothing to worry about. During the late 1950's, small scale terror attacks were used both in Algeria and in metropolitan France, first of the Algerian Muslims to achieve independence from France, and then by the Algerian Europeans -- the so call pied noirs -- in order to prevent independence.
Here, for the first time, the threat of terror was felt at the personal level by the average guy. Yet as Alistair Horne writes in his history of the Algerian revolution, A Savage War of Peace, the terrorist bombs were designed more to shock and frighten the general public rather than to kill or maim them on a large scale. Two or three people might die in an explosion, but not two thousand or even two hundred.
Yet even these small scale terror attacks were sufficient to divide France into two bitterly opposed factions and to bring an end to the Fourth Republic -- a fact that should wake us up to the vastly greater potential for political de-stabilization posed by the systematic use of catastrophic terror.
Catastrophic terror, unlike ordinary terror, it is not intended to take a few token lives; it is deliberately designed to take so many lives at once that it induces an immediate visceral fear in the entire community that they too are under attack. This effect was clear in the days immediately after 9/11. Back then everything spooked us; and people, hearing the backfire of a truck, jumped out of their skin. At that point it was conceivable that "they" could be anywhere, and that another catastrophic event was right around the corner.
Looking back on 9/11 in light of the strike on Madrid, we are struck by two things. First, our initial phase of collective jitteriness immediately after 9/11, and second, the failure of Al Qaeda to exploit this jitteriness in order to influence or undermine our political system. As far as the date of the attack was concerned, 9/11 might have been pulled out of a hat.
The same thing cannot be said of the terror strike in Madrid. The explosions on Thursday seemed deliberately designed to echo in the minds of the voters the following Sunday -- to echo in their minds and to influence their vote.
If this is the case, then it may well mean that the date of future terror strikes will no longer be drawn out of a hat, but rather will be selected with an eye to maximizing the damage not to people or buildings, but to the political system of the country under attack -- and how better to achieve this end than to plan catastrophic terror events for the eve of national elections, or, even worse, for the morning of one?
If the small scale terror of the Algerian revolutionaries can bring down a republic, one can only begin to imagine the political havoc that the technique of catastrophic terror could achieve if those ruthless enough to exploit it were also cunning enough use it in order to discredit and subvert the very nature of the democratic process. What, after all, is the value of a democracy if terrorists can influence the outcome of elections through acts of mass violence? Who will be willing to vote for a party that has made a point of standing up to terrorism, if the price of their vote will be the brutal murder of hundred or thousands of their fellow citizens -- or even themselves?
What this vampire will do next is anybody's guess. But one thing is certain. It is easy to get a vampire to cross the threshold; but getting him to leave once he has made himself at home -- that is a good deal trickier.
Lee Harris recently wrote for TCS about "Puppet States." His book, Civilization and Its Enemies, was just released by Free Press.
Copyright ? 2004 Tech Central Station - www.techcentralstation.com

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washingtonpost.com
U.S. Mideast Initiative Faces Arab Backlash
By Glenn Kessler and Robin Wright
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, March 21, 2004; Page A19
KUWAIT CITY, March 20 -- The Bush administration and Arab leaders are engaged in a delicate dance over President Bush's call for democracy in the Middle East, with each side struggling to find a balance between high-minded rhetoric and actual progress, U.S. and Arab officials said.
Facing an Arab backlash, the Bush administration has honed its Greater Middle East Initiative, due to be unveiled at the Group of Eight summit of industrial powers in June, to place greater emphasis on plans emerging from the region, such as a possible resolution from the Arab League later this month, U.S. officials said. Arab officials say they feel pressured to respond to the Bush administration proposals, but even reformers privately say they fear that any U.S. imprimatur would discredit the initiative in the eyes of the Arab public and strengthen radical Islamic forces.
The balancing act was on display last week as Secretary of State Colin L. Powell met with Kuwaiti and Saudi officials about the U.S. initiative. Powell told reporters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Friday that the push for greater freedoms in the Middle East was "not a matter of satisfying the United States; it's a matter of satisfying the aspirations of the people in the Arab world." Powell flew back to Washington after meeting with Kuwait's emir, Sheik Jabir Ahmed Sabah, on Saturday.
In recent weeks, after administration plans for the June summit were leaked before U.S. officials had fully discussed them with Arab leaders, a bevy of U.S. officials have toured the region to make amends.
"When our ideas were first made known to the press, there was a great deal of angst in the region," Powell acknowledged. "It has caused a great deal of debate, a lot of argument in the press, and that's good. That's part of the democratic process."
"Each nation has to find its own path and follow that path at its own speed," Powell said.
Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, Prince Saud Faisal, standing next to Powell, responded that the Saudi monarchy was ushering in reforms but not "to get a report of good behavior." He said reform would take place at a pace that would make it "a unifying force for the country and not a divisive aspect."
Saudi Arabia has scheduled its first municipal elections for later this year, and officials have hinted that women may be granted the right to vote. But shortly before Powell arrived, Saudi officials arrested 10 reformist figures, including a university professor, after they had called for the monarchy to move toward a more constitutional model. They also were planning to criticize a state-approved human rights group set up earlier this month. Saudi officials said the group was involved in "acts of sabotage."
Powell said he has expressed concern over the detentions. But Saud, the foreign minister, said, "These people sowed dissension when the whole country was looking for unity and a clear vision, especially at a time when it is facing a terrorist threat."
The pace of reforms has also been uneven in Kuwait. The news media are relatively free to criticize the government but not the emir. Some Islamic leaders have used the political process to block even modest reforms proposed by the emir, including granting women the right to vote, liberalizing the economy and allowing coeducation at universities.
"Kuwait is moving in this direction rather steadily, with a legislature that is -- how should I put this gently? -- is showing some energy with respect to oversight of the government," Powell said Saturday after meeting with Kuwaiti officials.
Officials are now focusing on the upcoming Arab League summit in Tunis, which begins March 29. The 22 members of the league have indicated that they will discuss democracy initiatives and possibly adopt a resolution. "I think if the Arab League could come to some conclusion that everyone agrees to, we would certainly respect that statement of vision," Powell said.
But U.S. officials said the text of such a resolution would determine whether it could be embraced as a step forward at the G-8 summit. Egypt, which has criticized the U.S. initiative, has submitted a proposed resolution that U.S. officials have suggested falls short of Bush administration goals.
The Egyptian proposal would affirm a commitment to "processes of modernization and reform that are undertaken by Arab societies in response to the wishes and needs of their people." The initiative supports the efforts of nongovernmental organizations "within the framework of legality" and links progress on the issue to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt recently said at a conference on reform issues that homegrown reforms must take society's cultural, religious and demographic character into account to avoid "instability or the overtaking of the reform process by extremists who would steer it in a different direction."
"From what we saw of the Egyptian idea, there were more red lines than forward-looking ideas for reform," said a State Department official involved in democracy planning in the Middle East.
Jordan, which in recent months has responded more positively to U.S. calls for reform, also plans to propose a resolution. While its text has not been made public, it is expected to cover similar ground but refer more specifically to good governance, freedom of expression, women's rights, judicial and educational reforms and commitment to human rights.
Jordan's foreign minister, Marwan Muasher, traveled to Washington recently to share his government's ideas with U.S. officials.
Powell told Muasher that the United States has "many tools available to nations that want to use those tools to enhance their reform efforts," such as an ongoing program at the State Department, according to a senior State Department official close to Powell who participated in the meeting. "Powell told Muasher that is the spirit of what we want to do at the G-8: We will try to define tools and reforms and how they can be used as we watch progress in the Arab world."
Wright reported from Washington.
? 2004 The Washington Post Company
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washingtonpost.com
Ex-Aide Assails Bush on War on Terrorism
Associated Press
Sunday, March 21, 2004; Page A22
Richard A. Clarke, the former White House counterterrorism coordinator, accuses the Bush administration of failing to recognize the al Qaeda threat before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and then manipulating the nation into war with Iraq with dangerous consequences.
He accuses President Bush of doing "a terrible job on the war against terrorism."
Clarke, who is expected to testify Tuesday before a federal panel reviewing the attacks, writes in a book going on sale Monday that Bush and his Cabinet were preoccupied during the early months of his presidency with some of the same Cold War issues that his father's administration had faced.
"It was as though they were preserved in amber from when they left office eight years earlier," Clarke told CBS for an interview tonight on "60 Minutes."
CBS's corporate parent, Viacom Inc., owns Simon & Schuster, publisher of Clarke's book, "Against All Enemies: Inside the White House's War on Terror -- What Really Happened."
Clarke acknowledges that, "there's a lot of blame to go around, and I probably deserve some blame, too." He said he wrote to national security adviser Condoleezza Rice on Jan. 24, 2001, asking "urgently" for a Cabinet-level meeting "to deal with the impending al Qaeda attack." Months later, in April, Clarke met with departmental deputy secretaries, and the conversation turned to Iraq.
"I'm sure I'll be criticized for lots of things, and I'm sure they'll launch their dogs on me," Clarke said. "But, frankly, I find it outrageous that the president is running for reelection on the grounds that he's done such great things about terrorism. He ignored it. He ignored terrorism for months, when maybe we could have done something."
Clarke retired in 2003 after 30 years in government. He was among the longest-serving White House staffers, transferred from the State Department in 1992 to deal with threats from terrorism and narcotics.
Clarke previously led the government's secretive Counterterrorism and Security Group.

? 2004 The Washington Post Company

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washingtonpost.com
Kerry Rejects Outsourced Endorsements
By John F. Harris
Sunday, March 21, 2004; Page A07
John F. Kerry's campaign is trying to wave surrender on the great controversy over his claim that more foreign leaders secretly back his candidacy than President Bush. Campaign aides last week said he is neither seeking foreign endorsements, nor will he accept them.
"This election will be decided by the American people, and the American people alone," Rand Beers, a Kerry foreign policy adviser, said in a statement. "It is simply not appropriate for any foreign leader to endorse a candidate in America's presidential election. John Kerry does not seek, and will not accept, any such endorsements."
So goes the effort to end the hubbub over perhaps the most damaging boast in U.S. politics since Al Gore claimed the invention of the Internet. Like that earlier boast -- Gore was indeed an important early backer of government research funding for the technology that eventually became the Internet -- this one may well have more truth than not. Polling in most European nations shows powerful anti-Bush majorities -- do the leaders disagree that much with their constituents? -- and just last week Bush was rebuked by the prime minister of Poland and the newly elected leader of Spain.
But the most prominent voice on the record last week backing the presumptive Democratic nominee was not exactly welcomed by Kerry. Former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad -- a man with a long history of anti-Semitic utterances -- declared, "I think Kerry would be much more willing to listen to the voices of people and of the rest of the world."
The Republican National Committee, continuing what has been a drumbeat of Kerry mockery, featured a new video on its Web site, www.rnc.org. With Austin Powers-style music and images, the spot spoofs the candidate as "John Kerry: International Man of Mystery."
Of course, the Republicans had their own problems with unsavory Asian dictators last week, after Newsday disclosed that the official merchandise Web site for Bush's reelection campaign has sold clothing made in Burma, which has a repressive government and whose goods are banned from import to the United States.
Two Spinners Whirl Back
Two familiar faces in the world of political spin and media combat are returning to Washington, courtesy of Kerry. Howard Wolfson, an aggressive campaign spokesman for Hillary Rodham Clinton's 2000 Senate run in New York, is moving here to join the Kerry communications team, spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter said.
Coming from even farther away is former State Department spokesman James P. Rubin, himself a man of Austin Powers-like mystique, arriving soon from London for six months in Washington. Rubin, who is married to CNN star correspondent Christiane Amanpour, will live here through the fall as a foreign policy adviser and public surrogate for Kerry. Kerry, however, was not Rubin's first choice for president; he advised Wesley K. Clark until the retired Army general's campaign ended.
Democrats Building Unity
It will be a parade of Democratic stars in town on Thursday for the Democratic National Committee's "Unity Dinner," designed to celebrate the party's determination to bury intramural differences and rally behind Kerry.
Former presidents Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, who have had their differences over the years, will be on hand for the dinner at the National Building Museum -- as well as at an after-hours party at the nightclub Dream.
Also present for the dinner will be all of this year's Democratic presidential candidates, minus one. Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (Ohio) was not invited, a DNC official said, because he is still campaigning and not preaching party unity.
The day will also mark the ribbon-cutting at the DNC's newly renovated headquarters at the foot of Capitol Hill. About $13 million was spent refurbishing the building, once a notorious dump. The building is wired for the latest technology, including a studio for satellite news conferences, but staffers grouse that it's still many long blocks from decent expense-account restaurants for source-building reporters.
350 Friends Briefed at 1600
The socially conservative and politically influential Family Research Council was given red-carpet treatment at the White House on Thursday. More than 350 major donors and other supporters received a private briefing from Elliott Abrams, the National Security Council staff director for Middle East affairs.
To give the White House session a more intimate feel, Bush aides split the more than 350 attendees of the council's annual "Washington Briefing" into two groups on successive days.
The Family Research Council is a nonprofit educational foundation and by law must be nonpartisan, but the GOP leanings were clear at last week's briefing. When James Dobson of Focus on the Family warned during one discussion that gay marriage could lead to a "man marrying his donkey," Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, had the crowd chortling by saying that made him think of "a Republican marrying a Democrat."
Staff writer Mike Allen contributed to this report.

? 2004 The Washington Post Company
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SPIEGEL ONLINE - 20. M?rz 2004, 17:12
URL: http://www.spiegel.de/kultur/gesellschaft/0,1518,291685,00.html
F?lschungsskandal
Starreporter von "USA Today" erfand Geschichten
Nach den Betrugsf?llen bei der "New York Times" ersch?ttert ein weiterer Skandal die US-Presselandschaft: Reporter Jack Kelley, hoch dekoriert und f?nf Mal f?r den begehrten Pulitzer-Preis nominiert, hat brisante Storys f?r "USA Today" einfach erfunden.
AP
Reporter Jack Kelley: "Ich habe das Gef?hl, ich werde hereingelegt"
Washington - Jack Kelley soll sich wichtige Teile von mindestens acht gro?en Reportagen f?r die Zeitung "USA Today" ausgedacht haben. Das sind die Ergebnisse einer Untersuchungskommission, die das Blatt eingesetzt hat. Unter den 729 Artikeln, die Kelley zwischen 1993 und 2003 f?r die Zeitung schrieb, seien "journalistische S?nden" von betr?chtlichen Ausma?en.
Unter anderem berichtete der Reporter von einem Selbstmordanschlag auf eine Pizzeria in Jerusalem. In der Story hatte Kelley geschrieben: "Drei M?nner, die drinnen gerade ihre Pizza a?en, wurden aus ihren St?hlen geschleudert. ... Als sie auf dem Boden aufschlugen, l?sten sich ihre K?pfe von den K?rpern und rollten die Stra?e herunter", berichtet die US-Zeitung "Los Angeles Times". Der Autor habe behauptet, die Augen in den abgetrennten K?pfen h?tten noch gezwinkert.
"Ungeheuerlichste Missetat"
Bei "US Today" indes ist unklar, wie Kelley den Zwischenfall ?berhaupt beobachtet haben will. Der Reporter habe etwa 30 Meter entfernt mit dem R?cken zur Pizzeria gestanden, als die Bombe hochging. Nach Beh?rdenangaben sei au?erdem bei dem Anschlag niemand gek?pft worden.
Als Kelleys "ungeheuerlichste Missetat" bezeichnete die Untersuchungsgruppe einen Vorfall aus dem Jahr 2000. Der Journalist hatte ein Foto von einer kubanischen Hotelangestellten f?r eine L?gengeschichte ?ber eine Frau benutzt, die bei ihrer Flucht mit dem Boot ums Leben gekommen sein sollte. Tats?chlich war die Frau nicht geflohen, zudem ?u?erst lebendig und von einem Reporter Anfang des Monats ausfindig gemacht worden.
Jack Kelley arbeitete seit 21 Jahren f?r die Zeitung und war pers?nlicher G?nstling des "USA Today"-Gr?nder Al Neuhart. Der 43 Jahre alte Journalist wurde f?nf Mal f?r den Pulitzer-Preis nominiert. Er berichtete aus Krisengebieten wie dem Nahen Osten oder Afghanistan. Im Januar hatte er seinen Job bei der Zeitung gek?ndigt, nachdem er Redakteuren gegen?ber zugegeben hatte, sie get?uscht zu haben. Er beharre aber nach wie vor darauf, nicht Falsches getan zu haben. "Ich habe das Gef?hl, ich werde hereingelegt", soll er zu Kollegen gesagt haben.
"Wir haben als Institution unseren Lesern gegen?ber versagt, weil wir Jack Kelley Probleme nicht bemerkt haben. Daf?r entschuldige ich mich", sagte Herausgeber Craig Moon. "In Zukunft werden wir sicherstellen, dass eine Umgebung gew?hrleistet ist, in der solch ein Missbrauch nie wieder vorkommt."

? SPIEGEL ONLINE 2004
Alle Rechte vorbehalten
Vervielf?ltigung nur mit Genehmigung der SPIEGELnet GmbH

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Annan seeks Iraq 'fraud' inquiry
BBC
The UN-administered scheme was vital for feeding Iraqis
UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has called for an independent inquiry into allegations of fraud and corruption in its oil-for-food programme in Iraq.
An internal UN inquiry is already under way, but Mr Annan wants outside firms and individuals to be investigated too.
The programme aimed to help Iraq cope with sanctions by allowing oil sales profits to be used for basic goods.
But the US now estimates that Saddam Hussein's regime made billions more out of it than previously thought.
The US Treasury thinks $10bn of illicit gains were made between 1997 and 2002 from the scheme - up from the previous estimate of $6bn.
In January, an Iraqi newspaper alleged that individuals and organisations from more than 40 countries had received vouchers for cut-price oil from the Iraqi regime.
'Serious consideration'
In a letter to the Security Council, Mr Annan proposed setting up an independent high-level inquiry to look into alleged corruption in the oil-for-food programme which was run by the UN from 1996 until last year.
It is highly possible that there's been quite a lot of wrongdoing, but we need to investigate and get to see who is responsible
Kofi Annan
He said the allegations, whether well-founded or not, had to be taken seriously.
Such an independent inquiry would need the backing of the Security Council, and Mr Annan said he would be sending it more details.
Under the oil-for-food programme, more than $65 billion was handed out for food, medicine and other non-military goods to ease the impact of 1991 Gulf War sanctions on ordinary Iraqis.
It was funded by sales of limited quotas of oil.
The programme was closed after the invasion of Iraq by US-led forces.
Smuggling
The US General Accounting Office (GAO), the investigatory arm of Congress, says Saddam Hussein earned $5.7bn from oil smuggled out of Iraq and $4.4bn from illegal surcharges he placed on oil.
GAO officials say the oil was smuggled through Syria, Jordan and the Persian Gulf and that the government imposed surcharges of up to 50 cents a barrel. It also took commissions of between 5-10% from suppliers.
In order to obtain more Iraqi money stashed away by the old regime, the US Treasury on Thursday submitted the names of 16 Saddam Hussein family members and 191 quasi-governmental firms to the UN.
A UN Security Council resolution requires that member nations freeze accounts which contain Iraqi money and hand over the funds for Iraq's reconstruction.

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Demonocracy
Beware of once-elected thugs.



What exactly does democracy -- "people power" -- really mean? Even the Greeks who invented this peculiar institution were not quite sure. Was it just rule by a majority vote? Or did it include mechanisms and subsidies to ensure the participation of the poor? Or to protect the minority from mob rule? Aristotle himself was baffled about what actually distinguished some forms of oligarchies from democracies; indeed his Politics can offer only a hopelessly confused typology.

Later Westerners who looked back at democracy in Athens were also confused over whether it was the noble "School of Hellas" of Pericles or the mobocracy that had precipitously executed Aegean islanders and condemned Socrates -- or both. Sober critics of democracy usually preferred a "Mixed Constitution," a consensual constitution that had various checks -- sometimes legislative, sometimes executive and judicial -- on popular will.

In any case, through the long cauldron of Western political thought there has emerged a consensus that constitutional government should have elements of both direct voting and elective representatives to protect citizenry from their own spontaneous and raw emotions. An independent judiciary, constitutional protection of minority and religious rights, guarantees of personal freedom and expression -- all these institutions are also essential to the idea of "democracy."

In addition, free markets are integral to consensual government. So are property rights. And these institutions are not simply to be ensured at the national level alone; in a modern free country they naturally permeate all of society, from informal elections at local PTA meetings to airing squabbles freely at the local chamber of commerce.

"Democracy" is also an evolving concept. From its inception in ancient Greece it has steadily become more inclusive -- dropping barriers to participation based on wealth, race, and gender. And it has also become more careful to distance governance from what a given electorate happens to feel on any given day, whether through judicial intervention or the rise of vast bureaucracies run by the executive branch.

In the modern world, the terms "democracy" and "republic" -- nomenclature native only to Western languages -- are bandied about quite loosely, inasmuch as they lend a veneer of legitimacy to otherwise awful regimes. The Soviet Union was supposedly a conglomeration of "republics." So were North Vietnam and East Germany. Indeed "democratic peoples" and "socialist republics" were usually code words for no voting and no liberty.

In light of the propaganda value of giving lip service to freedom, dictatorships on the Right also rarely call themselves "The Autocracy of Chile" or "The Nicaraguan Dictatorship." Many of the Arab autocracies -- the Saudi monarchy's employment of "kingdom" is an exception -- are officially "republics." Of course, not a single one has a really consensual government or regularly scheduled elections that are truly free.

So most countries that are not democratic claim that they are; and yet democracy itself turns out to be much more than just the occasion of one free election. And this paradox can raise real problems. Look at the Iranian elections of 1980 that took place in a climate of intimidation and without constitutional guarantees. Secular candidates were harassed and voters intimidated. Within three years there was essentially only one Islamic party and thereafter only sporadic rigged elections. The Iranian "president" and "parliament" meant little then and mean less now, as we learn from the recent forced withdrawal of a number of "reform" candidates.

Ditto for the Palestinians. Arafat had one sort of free election in 1996. But his "opponent," Samiha Kahil, was denied commensurate air time and contended with the bribery, violence, and censorship of Fatah, before garnering a mere nine percent of the vote. There have been no presidential elections since, no free judiciary, and no free press. The Palestinian Authority is about as democratic as the regime of Saddam Hussein, who "won" his similarly fixed election by about the same plurality as Arafat. Yet the New York Times praised Arafat in 1996 for his electoral victory and like most others in the media has been reluctant since to condone his isolation to his Ramallah bunker, given that chimera that he was a "democratically elected leader."

Haiti is not much different. An exiled Mr. Aristide was restored by the United States in 1996, on the pretext that he probably won the 1994 election. But since then he has engaged in criminality, censorship, blackmail, and violence to ensure that both the parliamentary and presidential elections of 2000 were engineered to his own satisfaction. For all his priestly past, New York sojourns, and professed sympathy for the poor, he too is a one-vote, one-time thug.

In some ways these aborted democracies are more pernicious than the old-style dictatorships, in that they use their purportedly democratic geneses as cover for some pretty awful things. The modus operandi works something like this. An initial election follows after the demise of a prior government either associated with autocracy or the machinations of the West -- the abdication of a Duvalier, Shah, or Israeli governing authority. Jimmy Carter arrives to certify (sometimes quite accurately) that the election is more or less fair -- even as he can say little about the absence of a ratified constitution, free press, legitimate opposition, or bill of rights. U.N. "observers" lurk and prowl in the shadows to legitimize the proceedings, understandably scurrying back to their compounds or hotel the first time some hired goon sticks an AK-47 up their noses.

In the years that follow (such "reelected" leaders never lose and never step down), various human-rights organizations and Western leftists subsequently praise the new progressiveness of the "emerging democracy" and turn mostly a blind idea to the predictable theft, killing, and lawlessness that follow.

So happy are supporters of elected indigenous scoundrels that they issue a lifelong pass, one that has the practical effect to encourage all sorts of pathologies, from making nuclear bombs (Pakistan and Iran) to blowing up innocent civilians (Arafat). In most cases, vocal Westerner sympathizers -- a Sartre, Foucault, or Chomsky -- are never interested much in real democratic government, but instead find a vicarious delight in seeing raw power employed under the slogans of "social justice" and "national liberation" and expressed in predictable anti-Western tones -- democracy providing them necessary cover on the cheap for cheering on pretty awful rulers.

To this day, supporters of Iranian nationalism still cite voting in Teheran. "Elected" Mr. Arafat enjoys the fruits of moral equivalence and thus is seen as no different from Sharon -- inasmuch as he too "won" a majority vote just like his counterpart. That Fatah is a lawless gang -- that Palestinians have no real free press and are routinely robbed, shaken down, and sometimes killed by their thugocracy -- is again excused by a single, once-upon-a-time vote. By the same token, Mr. Aristide is championed by the Congressional Black Caucus and an array of leftists precisely because he once won a purportedly transparent election when those he now despises took the effort to ensure his accession.

We should worry about these developments as we press ahead with needed democratic reform in Iraq. It will be easy to have one free election in Iraq under Western auspices. But precipitous voting will hardly make a democracy. Indeed it may have the opposite effect of extending legitimacy to radical Islamicists or strongmen who emerge through the liberality and sacrifice of Western blood and treasure -- only in the years ahead to curb free speech, individual rights, the right to own property, and engage in commerce without government coercion. And far from hating "democracy," such demonocratic subversives welcome its initial largess, by which all the better they can later destroy it.

What to do when we wish to leave -- and those most likely to subvert the process most want us out? The most important development now unfolding in Iraq is not the date of elections, but the emergence of a constitution that protects secularism, women's rights, and ethnic minorities, and a popular culture -- Internet, television, free assembly, and consumerism -- that promotes free and easy association.

Without all that, we will inevitably see a one-time elected leader who will systematically transform American-sponsored fair voting into an institutionalized sham. And these demonocrats will largely be given a pass from anti-American Westerners who, when the corpses pile up and the chaos ensues, will still cling to the myth that Sheik X, Ayallatoh Y, or Chairman Z was in fact "elected."

The administration seems to grasp all these pitfalls and yet senses that democracy can still work in formerly awful places like South Africa, Poland, and Turkey -- if there is a commitment to these vital ancillary institutions and protections. But they are between the rock of global demands for instant Iraqi popular sovereignty and the hard place of guaranteeing long-term democratic success a decade from now when our troops are gone and the world may be an even more dangerous place.

This is not the old realpolitik of giving a pass for pumping oil and keeping Communists at bay, or ignoring the usual descent into demonocracy. Instead of slurring our efforts as colonialist and self-interested, we should at least concede that the implementation of consensual rule in Iraq is the most idealistic, perhaps expensive, and in the end audacious initiative in the last half century of American foreign policy.

Indeed, we are in one of the rare periods of fundamental transformation in world history -- as the United States has pledged its blood and treasure in both a dangerous and daring attempt to bring the Middle East, kicking and screaming, into the family of democratic nations and free societies. So while American soldiers fight, build, patrol, and sometimes die in Iraq and Afghanistan, the world at large -- the Saudi royal family, President Musharraf, Mr. Khaddafi, the mullahs in Iran, the young Assad, the kleptocracy on the West Bank, and the weak and triangulating Europeans -- wonders whether the strong horse will prove to be the murderous bin Laden and his Arab romance of a new Dark Age, or George Bush's idea of a free and democratic Middle East.

http://www.nationalreview.com/hanson/hanson200403190815.asp
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The Deficit Debate Is a Charade
Bloated government, not the tax cut, is to blame.

By Daniel J. Mitchell

The charges lodged against the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts are deceptively simple: They have dramatically reduced government revenues, causing big, long-term deficits that will hurt the economy by driving up interest rates.

But this charge doesn't withstand scrutiny. This is partly because of the tenuous relationship between deficits and interest rates. (If deficits have such an adverse effect on interest rates, why are the rates lower today than they were during the surplus years?) But it's mostly because long-run deficits are caused by the growth of government spending.

Tax cuts certainly aren't to blame. From 1951 to 2000, federal tax revenues averaged 18.1 percent of gross domestic product. Tax-cut opponents frequently imply that Bush's tax cuts have emptied government coffers and created long-term fiscal chaos, but the Congressional Budget Office projects that tax revenues for 2012 to 2014 will average 18.1 percent of gross domestic product. You don't have to be a math whiz to realize how absurd it is to claim that tax cuts cause long-run deficits when tax revenues will mirror their long-term average. (This analysis, by the way, assumes that the tax cuts are made permanent.)

Critics note that tax revenues currently fall below 18.1 percent of GDP. But this is a short-term phenomenon caused by the recent recession and the temporary stock market-driven collapse of tax revenues from capital gains. No one expects these short-term factors to last. The CBO, for instance, estimates that tax revenues soon will return to historical norms, averaging 18.1 percent of GDP over the 2007-09 period.

This does not mean, incidentally, that tax revenues should always be 18.1 percent of GDP. It is just a coincidence that average revenue collections and future revenue projections are identical as a share of national economic output. It does mean, however, that we can't truthfully pin blame for future deficits on the tax cuts.

Deficits, however, are not the issue. The real problem is government spending, and we should view rising deficits as a symptom of Washington's profligacy. The spending crisis is both a short-term and a long-term problem. Federal spending has jumped dramatically in recent years, climbing from 18.4 percent of GDP in 2000 to more than 20 percent of GDP in 2004 (and less than half of that increase can be attributed to national defense or homeland security).

But this short-term expansion of the federal government's burden is minor when compared to what will happen after the baby-boom generation begins to retire. Without reform, huge unfunded promises for Social Security and Medicare benefits will cause federal spending to rise sharply. (And lawmakers last year made the problem worse by creating a new entitlement for prescription drugs under Medicare.)

Bigger government, though, is economically harmful. When politicians spend money, regardless of whether they get it from taxes or through borrowing, they're taking it from the productive sector of the economy. This might not be so bad if lawmakers used strict cost-benefit analysis to determine if the money was being well-spent -- particularly when compared with the efficiency of private-sector expenditures. Unfortunately, that rarely happens. Instead, politicians allocate funds on the basis of political rather than economic considerations. This inevitably weakens economic performance.

Lower spending would be a good idea even if we had a giant surplus. Government programs deprive the private sector of resources that could be used to boost jobs and create growth. This is why we should cut "discretionary" spending and re-examine entire programs, agencies, and departments. Lawmakers also should reform entitlement programs, in part to reduce long-term budget pressures but also because the private sector is better at providing health care and retirement income.

Today's deficit debate is largely a charade. The proponents of big government shed crocodile tears about the deficit because they want higher taxes. Yet historical evidence clearly shows that higher taxes tend to encourage more government spending and hurt the economy -- and both of these factors can cause the deficit to climb still higher. Worse, higher taxes would hurt U.S. competitiveness, making America more like France and other European welfare states.

To save our children and our grandchildren from such a fate, we should keep cutting taxes and finally get serious about reducing the burden of government spending. That may not carry the political allure of vilifying tax cuts -- but at least it's accurate.

-- Daniel J. Mitchell is the McKenna fellow in political economy at the Heritage Foundation


http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_comment/mitchell200403190800.asp
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>> GITMO PUSH PULL...

Guant?namo Detainees Deliver Intelligence Gains
By NEIL A. LEWIS

GUANT?NAMO BAY, Cuba, March 19 -- Military officials say prisoners at the detention center here have provided a stream of intelligence to interrogators during the past two years, including detailed information about Al Qaeda's recruitment of Muslim men in Europe.
Military and intelligence officials also said those detainees who were cooperative had provided information about Al Qaeda's chemical and biological weapons efforts, had spoken about the training of suicide bombers, and had described Al Qaeda's use of charities to raise money for its aims.
"We have been able as a result of information gained here to take operational actions, even military campaigns," said Steve Rodriguez, a veteran intelligence officer who oversees the interrogation teams. "There are instances of learning about active cells, and we have taken action to see that the cell was broken," he said, in one of a series of interviews given to a reporter on an arranged tour.
Another American official said analysts had been able to understand a kind of network in Europe that selected young Muslims, who were later drawn into Al Qaeda by imams and Islamic cultural centers and eventually sent to Afghanistan. He said this information has been sent on in recent months to European counterparts.
The sweeping assertions about the value of the detention center at Guant?namo respond to criticism of the operation, in the United States and abroad. Released detainees have also made allegations of mistreatment.
Apparently in an effort to counter the criticism, officials offered to talk in far greater detail than before about their interrogation techniques and what they say are important intelligence harvests from the detainees.
The officials denied the specific allegations of mistreatment made by prisoners recently returned to Britain whose accounts appeared in British newspapers and from Afghans who spoke to The New York Times in Kabul. Their accounts detail enforced privation, petty cruelty, beatings and planned humiliations.
There is no way so far to verify the situation of the detainees as described by the American officials, nor the charges of mistreatment.
The first military tribunals for some prisoners at Guant?namo may begin this summer, an event that is expected to draw new criticism. Many groups have challenged the legal basis the United States has cited to justify the detentions.
Speaking of the intelligence gleaned, Mr. Rodriguez contended that it was still useful, despite the fact that some of the detainees had been at Guant?namo for nearly two years. "I thought that when I first came here, there would be little to gain," he said. "But when they talk about what happens in certain operational theaters, the locations of certain pathways, that information doesn't perish."
He said a large number of the 610 detainees had not been cooperative with interrogators. At least 50, he said, were "ardent jihadists and have no qualms about telling you that if they got out, they would go and kill more Americans."
Mr. Rodriguez's emphasis on the dozens of the most hard-core detainees raises a significant question about Guant?namo: Does the prison camp also house many innocents who were swept up in the chaotic aftermath of the Afghanistan war?
Human rights groups and relatives of those detained have said the United States has committed a gross injustice by imprisoning many people who were in Afghanistan or Pakistan for reasons other than joining the Taliban or fighting for Al Qaeda. More than 100 prisoners from Guant?namo have been released so far.
Three former British prisoners who are friends from the city of Tipton said in interviews published last week in The Sunday Observer that they were arrested after they went to the region to arrange a marriage for one of the men. One of the others was to serve as best man. They spoke of beatings and abuse by American soldiers, charging that the Americans had stood on their kneeling legs and had held guns to their heads during questioning at Guant?namo.
Maj. Gen. Geoffrey Miller, the departing commander of the Joint Task Force, which runs the prison camp at Guant?namo, categorically denied the allegations.
He said he was confident that all the men there had been properly screened and fit the definition of an enemy combatant. "These people have a number of cover stories," he said. "I can say with certainty that the British detainees were here for an appropriate reason."
Mr. Rodriguez said, "If I were to believe the stories they tell me at first, then 90 percent of them are innocent rug merchants."
The released detainees said some prisoners had been treated brutally by soldiers from the Immediate Reaction Force, a group of seven members called to prison cells when an inmates refused to obey an order. One carries a plexiglass shield, and the rest have elbow and knee pads.
Such actions, officials said, occur three times a week on average and are always videotaped.
General Miller acknowledged a handful of occasions when the handling was judged to have been too rough, but said no one was left seriously injured. He said one military policeman had been court-martialed for overreacting when an inmate threw excrement on him. The soldier was acquitted.
The detention system at Guant?namo is intended to make the prisoners as compliant as possible. The detainees are schooled in a system of rewards and penalties calibrated to their behavior, including potential access to books and puzzles or being deprived of towels and a toothbrush.
For instance, most prisoners are not allowed to exercise in their 6-by-8-foot cells, but get twice-weekly 20-minute periods for exercising and showering. But if the camp authorities decide that detainees are becoming cooperative, they are given more time out of their cells.
The International Committee of the Red Cross, the only outside group that visits the detainees, has not publicly complained about physical mistreatment. But it has said the prolonged detention without any certainty for the inmates about their future is inhumane and psychologically debilitating.
The detainees may be summoned for questioning at any time of day or night for as many as two daily sessions of up to five hours.
One senior intelligence officer, a reservist who is a homicide detective in civilian life, described using hamburgers from the base's McDonald's and games of chess to gain intimacy with a detainee he said had been Al Qaeda's chief explosives instructor.
Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company
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Liberalism, Loose or Strict By Anthony de Jasay presented by www.cne.org
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Introduction The Centre for the New Europe (CNE) is proud to present its readers with "Liberalism, loose or strict", a paper by Anthony de Jasay. The paper was originally presented at the Liberales Institut of Zurich in December 2003. CNE thanks Liberales Institut's President Robert Nef for authorizing the present publication. Anthony de Jasay is one of the few truly original minds in contemporary social science. He is well-known for combining analytical rigor with a realistic approach to social phenomena--a rare quality, given that the industry of political superstitions, which has no purpose but to dress the emperor, is still working at full capacity. Jasay has been opposing such a tendency for some time. His acclaimed book, The State (1985), perhaps the finest treatise on the subject, has opened the eyes of more than a few readers to the true nature of the institution par excellence, in the realm of modern political philosophy. His Against Politics (1997), a collection of penetrating essays, has illuminated the shortcomings of F.A. Hayek's political philosophy, as well as cast new light on the weaknesses of limited government "libertarianism" and opened new perspectives in the examination of the emergence of social conventions. His last book, Justice and Its Surroundings, is dedicated to justice and to the issues that typically surround it: freedom, sovereignty, distribution, choice, property, agreement, et cetera. Not only is Jasay's treatment of justice per se original and groundbreaking - further, he provides insightful criticisms of the approaches used by scholars such as John Rawls, Robert Nozick, Brian Barry, and Thomas Scanlon. For any student of political philosophy, Jasay's work is almost a panacea against the philosophical viruses still poisoning European academia. CNE believes that this paper on "loose and strict liberalism" could greatly benefit readers, giving them a theoretical framework to better understand disputes and debates among so-called "classical liberals" and "libertarians". Jasay's paper envisions new solutions to ancient problems, and provides true intellectual excitement. To complement this paper, we also thank Anthony de Jasay for having been so kind as to answer a few questions by CNE Visiting Fellow Alberto Mingardi. MINGARDI: You speak about the loose foundations of classical liberalism, which hasn't been a very "firm" and "strict" political doctrine, but rather an "inclusive"one, an umbrella-political thought under which many different ways of thinking found place. What do you think is the key issue to distinguish between "loose" and "strict" liberalism? The theory of private property? The issue of social justice? DE JASAY: Property and justice are certainly getting different treatments in the two liberalisms, - but I think this is not a primary element of their differences, but rather the consequence of a more fundamental contrast. At the deepest level, the "loose" and the "strict" doctrines differ because the first is value-based, the second logic-based. In loose liberalism, we start from the value we think people should, and do, attach to freedom. But
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being liberals and tolerant, we also leave them freedom of choice: they are certainly entitled to like other values as well, and it is up to them to choose the tradeoffs between rival values that best suit their inclinations. Thus, value-based loose liberalism makes room for "social justice", for equality, for security and any number of other values you can think of. It is a doctrine of tradeoffs; it can be all things to all men as tastes, fashions of thought, forms of political correctness come and go. This is why I keep saying that (loose) liberalism "has a weak immune system". Its weak doctrine leaves it wide open to parasitic invasions ("rightsism") and mutations of identity. Strict liberalism has one cornerstone (you might even say it is its only cornerstone), namely the presumption of liberty, that is not value-based, is subject to no tradeoffs, but is simply a logical consequence of which kind of statement can be falsified and which kind verified. MINGARDI: What are the most relevant theoretical flaws that you notice in contemporary classical liberal / libertarian principles? DE JASAY: For greater clarity, it might be best to put a dividing line between classical liberalism and libertarianism though the division is far from sharp. My feeling is that classical liberalism suffers mainly from one "design fault": along Lockean lines, it accepts the sovereignty of the state because it believes that our "life, liberty and property" can be exempted from this sovereignty. In other words, it tacitly postulates that if we, good liberals, wish government to be limited, it will be limited. I am afraid this is stark nonsense; it is of the essence of government that it is a tool that some people will use to exploit others and by doing so secure the control of government. It is no use to say that government ought to be limited, or that we wish that it should be. (Cf. ch.2 "Is Limited Government Possible?" in my book Against Politics.) Classical liberalism stands or falls with limited government. If I am right that government has intrinsic, built-in features that predestine it to expand and encroach upon the sphere of individual choices, classical liberalism rests upon a falsehood. It is not clear that libertarianism can be accused of the same fault. It does not seem to me that limited government is an inherent element in libertarian theory. If I am right that it is not, libertarianism is in some sense more truthful. It can postulate anarchy. It can also take government as it exists, and postulate opportunistic, step-by-step shavings-off from its scope, - a privatisation here, the repeal of a busybody law there - as part of the libertarian rearguard fight. Putting it differently, the classical liberal sees the state as legitimate but regrettably overstepping its proper limits and hence in need of being cautioned. The libertarian by contrast sees the state not as an errant servant, but as an adversary. MINGARDI: How does the issue of Constitutionalism fit in your distinction between loose and strict liberalism? DE JASAY: In "loose" liberalism, the constitution is an essential ingredient of whichever kind of political order the particular version of liberalism happens to desire. A well-made constitution works rather like the auto-pilot of a passenger plane; it is an automatic device for ensuring that the plane will fly to the destination "we" have fixed for it. Given a good constitution, "we" are safe.
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But of course society is not a unanimous "we". There are many conflicts of interest where "we" confront "them". If these conflicts must be resolved constitutionally, the constitution will become a locus of conflict, - indeed, perhaps, the central locus of most conflicts. It will accordingly be amended, or twisted and turned in interpretation, or circumvented. Its guardian (the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Court) will be unable to resist this; in some periods (the Warren Court) it will be its chief twister-and-turner. The constitution in its logical structure is a vow. Like a vow, it is up to "us" to keep it. It is also like a chastity belt whose key we have within reach. I believe constitutionalism, like its twin brother contractarianism, is a very dangerous strain of thought. It is illusion-mongering. It fosters a belief that we are on auto-pilot and safe from error or selfish deviation by the pilots. In strict liberalism, the constitution is (almost) irrelevant. Since government is not recognised as legitimate, the question of what it may legitimately do does not arise. MINGARDI: Why do you think "pious lies" are so successful in the intellectual environment? Why even so-called free market types do not go for strict liberalism, but rather worship some sort of alternatives, really indistinguishable from a theoretical standpoint from socialist (loose) liberalism? DE JASAY: Pious lies, e.g. the social contract, tell us that things went the way they did because at bottom we wanted them to go that way. The state of affairs has been chosen by a social choice rule that conforms to ethical axioms (e.g. majority rule). Laws are what they are because they maximise the common good, or maximise wealth (as in law-and-economics). A "veil of uncertainty" has made it rational for us consensually to adopt political institutions that in retrospect are proving to be redistributive and disadvantageous. And so on through the whole list of the social arrangements that systematically favour some at the expense of others. Pious lies, in short, serve to reassure us that we are not silly suckers. MINGARDI: You write that, "Despite the logic of the thesis that the state is intrinsically unnecessary, and the attractiveness of ordered anarchy, it is hardly worth the effort to advocate the abolition of the state. But it is worth the effort to constantly challenge its legitimacy". These are inspiring words, but how do you think that this effort to constantly challenge its legitimacy should take place in the contemporary world? DE JASAY: I am agnostic about civil disobedience and taxpayers' strikes. When I speak of challenging the illegitimate state, I mainly mean waging a relentless intellectual battle against the attitude that approves the law because it is the law, because it has been enacted according to the rules. Docility, willing submission to the "lawful government" makes it far too easy for the latter steadily to enlarge its domain of decision. We have reached the stage where almost any policy measure, no matter how outrageous, is accepted as legitimate provided it can be traced to the majority will. Challenging this means hammering home that the measure is outrageous for good reasons despite the majority wanting it (i.e. in practice, despite its being "socially progressive"). As things stand, this is merely a rearguard fight. However, for reasons we cannot really foresee, the tide may turn one day and the rearguard fight may become an advance.
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Liberalism, loose or strict By Anthony de Jasay Political doctrines can be understood and interpreted in many ways, but in order to survive and prosper, each doctrine needs some irreducible, constant element that represents its distinct identity and that cannot change without the doctrine losing its essential character. Nationalism must hold out sovereignty, the safeguarding and if possible the expansion of a territory, a language and a race as the chief goals of policy. If it did not, it would no longer be nationalism but something else. Socialism appears in many guises, but all its versions have at least one common, inalterable feature, namely the insistence that all wealth is created by society, not by individual members of it. Society is entitled to distribute wealth in whatever way fits its conception of justice. Common ownership of the means of production and equality of wellbeing are derivatives of this basic thesis. It is my contention that liberalism has never had such an irreducible and unalterable core element. As a doctrine, it has always been rather loose, tolerant of heterogeneous components, easy to influence, easy to infiltrate by alien ideas that are in fact inconsistent with any coherent version of it. One is tempted to say that liberalism cannot protect itself because its "immune system" is too weak. Current usage of the words "liberal" and "liberalism" is symptomatic of the Protean character of what the names are meant to signify. "Classical" liberalism is about the desirability of limited government and what goes by the name of laissez faire combined with a broad streak of utilitarianism that calls not for limited, but for active government. American liberalism is mainly concerned with race, homosexuality, abortion, victimless crimes and in general with "rights". In mid-Atlantic English, a liberal is what most Europeans would call a social democrat, while in French "liberal" is a pejorative word, often meant as an insult, and "liberalism" is a farrago of obsolete fallacies that only the stupid or the dishonest have the audacity to profess. These disparate usages do not have much in common. It should not surprise us that they do not. Loose doctrine on loose foundations Much of its lack of a firm identity is explained by liberalism's foundations. At its deepest, the doctrine seems to spring from the love of liberty. In more philosophical language, liberty is a value - final or instrumental - that we hold dear. All the superstructure of liberalism is made to rest on this easily acceptable value judgment. However, liberty is not the sole value, - not even the sole political value. It has many rivals; security of person and property, security of subsistence, equality of all kinds, protection for the weak against the strong, the progress of knowledge and the arts, glory and greatness spring to mind, and the list could be virtually endless. Many if not most of these values can only be realised at the cost of curtailing freedom. It is contrary to the liberal spirit of tolerance and love of liberty to try and reject these values and to dispute anyone's freedom to cherish some of them even at the expense of freedom. The love of liberty allows tradeoffs between it and other things. How much freedom should be given up for how much security or equality or any other worthy objective that at least some people want to achieve, is obviously a subjective matter, my value against your value, my argument against yours. Disagreement is legitimate. From this foundation, therefore, the evolution of the doctrine tends towards allowing rival values
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more and more Lebensraum, to incorporate and co-opt them. What surfaces is a variable mish-mash, all things to all men. Utilitarianism and the Harm Principle This evolution, almost predestined by the dependence of the doctrine on value judgments, was pushed further forward by the teachings of the three most influential theorists of classical liberalism, Bentham, James Mill and John Stuart Mill. They made one-man-one-vote and the good of the greatest number into an imperative of political morality, establishing a wholly arbitrary, if not downright self-contradictory, linkage between democracy and liberalism. This linkage has since achieved the status of a self-evident truth. It is being repeated with parrot-like docility in modern political discourse, and is doing much to empty liberalism of any firm identity. They also bear much of the responsibility for endowing liberalism with a utilitarian agenda. Liberal politics became a politics of betterment in all directions. There is always an inexhaustible fund of good ideas for improving things by reforming and changing institutions, making new laws, new regulations and perhaps above all by constantly adjusting the distribution of wealth and income so as to make it yield more "total utility". John Stuart Mill has quite explicitly laid down that while the production of wealth was governed by economic laws, its distribution was for society to decide. Utilitarianism made this not only legitimate, but actually mandatory, for failing to increase total utility by redistributing incomes is to fail doing the good that you could do. A mandate for overall betterment is, of course, a sure recipe for unlimited government. Many defenders of classical liberalism interpret Mill's famous Harm Principle as the safeguard against precisely this tendency of utilitarian thought. The principle looks like a barrier to the state's boundless growth. "...the only purpose for which power can be rightfully exercised over any member of a civilised community against his will" - states Mill - " is to prevent harm to others".1 However, what constitutes harm and how much harm justifies the use of state power, are inherently subjective matters of judgment. There is a vast area of putative or real externalities which some regard as grounds for government interference while others consider that they are simply facts of life, to be left to sort themselves out. The harm principle, being wide open to interpretation, is progressively expanding its domain. Today, omission is amalgamated with commission. "Not helping someone is to harm him"; the harm principle is invoked by certain modern political philosophers to make it mandatory for the state to force the well off to assist those who would be harmed by the lack of assistance. There may well be strong arguments for forcing some people to help others, but it is surprising to find one that is supposed to be quintessentially liberal. Observing the effects of good intentions is often a matter for bitter irony. Locke tried with his innocent-looking proviso to prove the legitimacy of ownership and succeeded in undermining its moral basis. J.S. Mill thought that he was defending liberty, but what he achieved was to shackle it in strands of confusion. 1 J.S.Mill, On Liberty, ch.I., para 9.
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Strict Liberalism In order to prevent it from becoming indistinguishable from socialism, unprincipled pragmatism or just plain ad-hockery, liberalism must become more strict. It needs different foundations, and its structure must be made minimal and simple, so as better to resist the penetration of alien elements. I suggest that two basic propositions, one logical and one moral, suffice to construct a new, stricter liberal doctrine capable of defending its identity. One is the presumption of freedom, the other the rejection of the rules of submission that imply the obligation of political obedience. The Presumption of Freedom The presumption of freedom should be understood to mean that any act a person wishes to perform is deemed to be free - not to be interfered with, regulated, taxed or punished - unless sufficient reason is shown why it should not be free. Some deny that there is, or ought to be, such a presumption2. However, the presumption is not a matter of opinion or evaluation that can be debated and denied. It is a strict logical consequence of the difference between two means of testing the validity of a statement, namely falsification and verification. There may be an indefinite number of potential reasons that speak against an act you wish to perform. Some may be sufficient, valid, others (perhaps all) insufficient, false. You may falsify them one by one. But no matter how many you succeed in falsifying, there may still be some left and you can never prove that there are none left. In other words, the statement that this act would be harmful is unfalsifiable. Since you cannot falsify it - putting on you the burden of proving that it would be harmless is nonsensical, a violation of elementary logic. On the other hand, any specific reason objectors may advance against the act in question is verifiable. If they have such reasons, the burden of proof is on them to verify that some or all of them are in fact sufficient to justify interference with the act. All this seems trivially simple. In fact, it is simple, but not trivial. On the contrary, it is of decisive importance in conditioning the intellectual climate, the "culture" of a political community. The presumption of liberty must be vigorously affirmed, if only to serve as an antidote against the spread of "rightsism" that would contradict and undermine it, and that has done so much to distort and emasculate liberalism in recent decades. "Rightsism" purports solemnly to recognise that people have "rights" to do certain specific things and that certain other things ought not to be done to them. On closer analysis, these "rights" turn out to be the exceptions to a tacitly understood general rule that everything else is forbidden; for if it were not, announcing "rights" to engage in free acts would be redundant and pointless. The silliness that underlies "rightsism", and the appalling effect it exerts upon the political climate, illustrates how far the looseness of current liberal thought can drift away from a more strict structure that would serve the cause of liberty instead of stifling it in pomposity and confusion. 2 Notably Joseph Raz, The Morality of Freedom, Oxford 1986 , The Clarendon Press, pp.8-12
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The Rule of Submission "The king in his council has expressed his will, and his will shall be obeyed by all" is a rule of submission. So are the rules that required the citizens of Venice to obey the Signoria, that gave the power to make laws to a majority of a legislature and the power to elect legislators to a majority of voters. The latter of these rules are more "democratic" than the former, but they all share the same essential feature: the obligation of all in a community to submit to the decisions of only some of them. Moreover, every such rule imposes the obligation to submit to decisions reached by certain persons in certain ways so to speak in advance, before knowing what those decisions are in fact going to be. Reasons of practical expediency can be found why this must be so if the business of government is to be transacted. The reasons may be good ones, but the rule they call for is no less outrageous for all that. Submission can be morally acceptable if it is voluntary, and voluntary submission by rational individuals is conceivable on a case-by-case basis, on the merits of particular propositions. As a general rule, that amounts to signing a blank cheque, however, it can hardly be both voluntary and rational. If a general rule of submission is necessary for governing, - which it might well be - then the legitimacy of government, any type of government, turns out to be morally indefensible. Does this mean that strict liberals cannot loyally accept the government of their country as legitimate, and are in effect advocating anarchy? Logically, the answer to both questions must be "yes", but it is a "yes" whose practical consequences are necessarily constrained by the realities of our social condition. Orderly social practices that coordinate individual behaviour so as to produce reasonably efficient and peaceful cooperation, can be imposed by law and regulation. Today, many of our practices are in fact so imposed, - many, but not all. Some important and many less vital yet useful ones are matters of convention. Unlike a law that must rely on the rule of submission, a convention is voluntary. It is a spontaneously emerging equilibrium in which everybody adopts a behaviour that will produce the best result for him given the behaviour that he anticipates everybody else to adopt. In this reciprocal adjustment to each other, nobody can depart from the equilibrium and expect to profit from it, because he will expect to be punished for it by others also departing from the equilibrium. Unlike a law that depends on enforcement, a convention is thus self-enforcing. Its moral standing is assured because it preserves voluntariness. David Hume was the first major philosopher systematically to identify conventions in general, and two particularly vital conventions, that of property and of promising in particular. Hayek's fundamental idea of the "spontaneous order" can best be understood in terms of conventions. We owe the rigorous explanation of the self-enforcing nature of conventions to John Nash, and more recent developments in game theory show that conflict-ridden social cooperation problems formerly believed to be "dilemmas" requiring state intervention, in fact have potential solutions in conventions.
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The Strictly Liberal Agenda It is easy to describe plausible scenarios in which spontaneous conventions emerge to suppress torts and protect life and limb, property and contract3. However, such scenarios are written on a blank page, whilst in reality the page is already covered with what the past has written on it. In the West, at least two centuries of ever more elaborate legislation, regulation, taxation and public services, - in short, recourse to the rule of submission - have bred a reliance on the state for securing social cooperation. Society has therefore less need for the old conventions, and its muscles for maintaining old conventions and generating new ones have atrophied. In the face of this reality, it is probably vain to expect the collapse of a state to be followed by the emergence of ordered anarchy. The likeliest scenario is perhaps the emergence of another state, possibly nastier than its predecessor. This limits the practical agenda of strict liberalism. Despite the logic of the thesis that the state is intrinsically unnecessary, and the attractiveness of ordered anarchy, it is hardly worth the effort to advocate the abolition of the state. But it is worth the effort constantly to challenge its legitimacy. The pious lie of a social contract must not be allowed to let the state complacently to take the obedience of its subjects too much for granted. There is a built-in mechanism in democracy for the state to buy support from some by abusing the rule of submission and exploiting others. Loose liberalism has come to call this social justice. The best strict liberalism can do is to combat this intrusion of the state step by step, at the margin where some private ground may yet be preserved and where some public ground may perhaps even be regained. 30 October 2003 3 Cf. Jasay, Against Politics, London 1997 , Routledge, Ch.9 , "Conventions: Some Thoughts on the Economics of Ordered Anarchy".

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Friday, 19 March 2004

>> KHAN CON CONTINUED...


Exposing the web of nuclear WMD: The Khan con...
Mark Alexander (archive)

March 19, 2004 | Print | Send

(This is the second of a two-part commentary on how the CIA scooped the nuclear WMD black-market.)

"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle."
--Sun Tzu (6th century B.C. Chinese general) in "The Art of War"

The United States is at war. Since 1993, the year of the first Islamist attack on the World Trade Center, our homeland has been a frontline in the war with Jihadistan, a borderless alliance of Islamist groups with global reach, who are relentlessly targeting the U.S. as surrogates for Islamic nation states. While orthodox Muslims (those conforming to the teachings of the "pre-Medina" Quran) do not support acts of terrorism or mass murder, very large sects within the Islamic world are indoctrinated with the "post-Mecca" Quran and Hadith (Mohammed's teachings). These are the writings that call for "Jihad" or "Holy War" against all "the enemies of God." Hence, "Jihadistan," or "nation of holy war."

In the war to deter Jihadistan terror, there are two recurrent themes in President George W. Bush's leadership as Commander-in-Chief (his primary Constitutional role). First, he has emphasized that we must know our enemy and endeavor to keep the warfront on their turf. Second, President Bush has rightly insisted that we must know ourselves -- that we must not lose our resolve to conduct this war in defense of our nation and our national interests.

On the first count, we have, thus far, succeeded. While Leftist politicos and their Leftmedia minions are loath to give credit where credit is due, it is nothing short of remarkable that, since 9/11, our Armed Forces, and the multitude of agencies supporting them, have prevented any further catastrophic attacks on U.S. soil.

On the second count, however, our nation's resolve is at great risk of being undermined by President Bush's political opponent, Leftist agitator John Kerry, who should think twice about starting every stump-speech by questioning our presence in Afghanistan and Iraq. Doing so only serves to endanger our forces in those regions -- and the security of our homeland -- by undermining U.S. resolve.

Like his mentor Ted Kennedy, Kerry has suggested that the rationale for Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom was cooked up by the administration and the CIA -- that there are no WMD and, consequently, no looming threats against the United States. But Kerry and Kennedy et al. are wrong -- dead wrong -- and their use of our military campaign against Jihadistan as political campaign fodder is not only unconscionable -- it is, potentially, calamitous.

In his 2002 State of the Union speech, George Bush exercised little ambiguity in putting the "Axis of Evil" on notice: "North Korea is a regime arming with...weapons of mass destruction.... Iran aggressively pursues these weapons and exports terror.... Iraq continues to flaunt its hostility toward America and to support terror. The Iraqi regime has plotted to...develop nuclear weapons for over a decade. ... States like these, and their terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world. By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger. ...[T]he price of indifference would be catastrophic."

Notably, President Bush added, "We will work closely with our coalition to deny terrorists and their state sponsors the materials, technology, and expertise to make and deliver weapons of mass destruction." Now fast-forward two years to the nuclear WMD web linking Pakistan, Libya, Iran, Iraq and North Korea, a network of terror that has been incrementally exposed in the last 60 days. How is it that revelations about the status of nuclear WMD development programs in these nations has suddenly surfaced?

Subsequent analysis by The Federalist leads us to conclude that the CIA (much-maligned by Kerry and Kennedy, who suggest the agency failed to provide accurate estimates of Iraq's undiscovered WMD) succeeded in a high-stakes "takeover" of the nuclear black market prior to 2002. It's an operation that is largely responsible for exposing the aforementioned Islamic web of nuclear WMD development -- and a success that will likely remain unheralded beyond this column.

As we noted last week, the most recent WMD revelation was the International Atomic Energy Agency's "discovery" of advanced uranium-enrichment equipment (gaseous centrifuge technology) at an air force base outside Tehran. That equipment was found to have traces of uranium refined to 90% of isotope 235, which has applications only in limited space reactors such as those in nuclear submarines -- and nuclear bombs. (We're quite certain Iran is not preparing to launch a nuclear submarine.)

Did Iran construct this particular component of advanced nuclear refinement technology? It's doubtful. While Iran has its own successful nuclear WMD program, the source of the recently discovered equipment was very likely North Korea, by way of Iraq. Two years ago in Federalist No. 02-42, we reported that the enriched uranium at the core of North Korea's nuclear WMD program was the product of gas centrifuge technology. Our sources tell us there is substantial evidence that North Korea transferred that technology to Iraq in the last decade.

Iraq, after all, had plenty of time, compliments of the French and French-fortified hand-wringers in the UN, to spirit the bulk of its biological and nuclear WMD into Iran and Syria prior to the coalition invasion last March. (You'll recall that when the coalition's Desert Storm invasion of Iraq was imminent in 1991, Saddam transferred his frontline squadrons of fighters to Iran.)

Of course, some still have their head in the sand, insisting that Iraq had no active nuclear WMD programs in recent years. (Ironically, that is precisely where some elements of his WMD programs likely remain concealed -- in the sand.) For example, as we noted in Federalist No. 03-28, the CIA recovered gas-centrifuge components from Iraqi nuclear scientist Mahdi Shukur Obeidi, who had buried the hardware in his back yard prior to the coalition's invasion of Iraq last year.

Who, then, is the common denominator of these various nuclear WMD programs, and what does he have to do with the CIA? He is Abdul Qadeer Khan who was, until his role in trading nuclear technology was recently exposed, Pakistan's top nuclear scientist, and the father of the "Islamic bomb." Khan collected most of his nuclear know-how from Western Europe and China over the last 20 years.

It is the considered opinion of our analysts that all these recent WMD revelations are the direct result of a covert operation to cultivate operatives in the nuclear black marketplace, particularly Khan, and ultimately control a substantial part of that market in an effort to track sellers and buyers.

While it is not yet clear what the exact nature of the relationship between Khan and the CIA was, suffice it to say that our analysts believe he was either working for the CIA in the latter years of his proliferation endeavors -- or his actions as the nuclear WMD black-market kingpin were transparent to the CIA -- for at least the past four years, and possibly for the last decade.

Contrary to President Bush's assertion that the U.S. would "work closely with our coalition to deny terrorists and their state sponsors the materials, technology, and expertise to make and deliver weapons of mass destruction," we believe the CIA either conned Khan, or used him as the con in a covert operation to provide "materials, technology, and expertise" in an effort to determine which state-sponsors of terrorism were buying nuclear WMD components, and the current stage of their nuclear WMD program development.

It's an old ruse: If you want to know who the distributors and customers are, and how far they have advanced their programs and networks, set up your own shop, undercut the competition, and they'll line up at your door. We believe that is precisely what the CIA did, using Khan wittingly or unwittingly, in setting up one of the most brilliant -- and high-stakes -- con games ever.

Khan apparently operated with the full knowledge of Pakistani President (and former general) Pervez Musharraf, who granted Khan a full pardon after his activities were exposed last month. Khan outsourced a significant amount of production work to Malaysia, centering on one B.S.A. Tahir, a prominent businessman with Malaysia's Scomi Precision Engineering. Last month, speaking at the National Defense University, President Bush identified Tahir as the "chief financial officer and money launderer" of A.Q. Khan's black market ring. Indeed, it was Scomi precision-manufactured centrifuge parts that were seized in the Mediterranean aboard the BCC China late last year, en route to Libya.

Regarding North Korea's role, NSA Condoleezza Rice notes that details of Khan's con were having a profound impact upon the United States' ability to confront and negotiate with Pyongyang. "Now the North Koreans should also recognize that, with the unraveling of these proliferation networks, the A.Q. Khan network, what the Libyans are now freely admitting and talking about, that their admissions and what they say is not the only source of information about what's going on in North Korea," said Dr. Rice. "And it's probably a good time for the North Koreans to come clean."

Like any good sting operation, when it was determined by the CIA that all the information that could be gleaned from the Khan con had been collected -- prior to the transfer of any nuclear weapons to terrorist surrogates -- the CIA, through international channels, exposed the operation and put all Khan's clients on immediate notice that the extent of their nuclear WMD programs is a matter of record with the CIA.

Of course, all Khan's Islamic customers know that in the heart of the Middle East right now, within easy striking distance of any of them, is a substantial U.S. and coalition military force. In light of this fact, what can we make of Libya's sudden surrender of all its nuclear components a few weeks ago?

Mere coincidence? We think not.

George W. Bush has proven himself an outstanding Commander-in-Chief, and the CIA, should it ever acknowledge this operation, will certainly redeem itself in regard to its successful endeavor to track nuclear WMD. That notwithstanding, perhaps the greatest immediate threat to U.S. national security and sovereignty is not al-Qa'ida and company; rather, it is those among us whose phony political rhetoric is weakening our national resolve.

Quote of the week...

"Terrorists will kill innocent life in order to try to get the world to cower. That's what they want to do. And they'll never shake the will of the United States."
--George W. Bush

On the Warfront with Jihadistan....

Today marks the one-year anniversary of the onset of our taking the war with Jihadistan onto the Iraqi battlefields. (For as snapshot of what has changed in the last year, visit Iraq: Now vs. Then. The date has not gone unmarked, as Jihadis have taken the war to Europe. The coordinated bombings of Madrid trains late last Thursday, now almost certainly plotted al-Qa'ida-linked Islamists, with or without the help of Basque separatists, clearly had the desired effect -- it influenced a national election. The Popular Party, whose leader Jose Maria Aznar had been a stalwart ally in the war with the Jihadis, went down in an upset defeat to the Socialist Party, led by Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero.

Not having sought reelection himself, Sr. Aznar became the first Spanish head of state to leave office without revolution or coercion since the abdication of Charles V in 1556. Can we hope as much from PM Zapatero?

Aside from announcing that he will not attempt to form a coalition government, but rule on a straight Socialist platform, PM-elect Zapatero announced his intent to pull out all Spanish troops from participation in the "coalition of the willing" safeguarding Iraq. Zapatero went so far as to mischaracterize the freeing of the Iraqi people, saying, "The occupation is...a fiasco." Occupation? What occupation?

Zapatero further signaled a return to head-in-the-sand postures in dealing with the terrorists. "Terrorism is combated by the state of law. ... That's what I think Europe and the international community have to debate." This preferred European stance on terrorism -- treating it as a matter for police investigation and prosecution rather than a war -- is, by the way, the same method preferred by Candidate John Kerry.

And who is Zapatero's preferred candidate in the U.S. presidential race? "We're aligning ourselves with Kerry. ...Our alliance will be for peace, against war, no more deaths for oil, and for a dialogue between the government of Spain and the new Kerry administration. ...I think Kerry will win. I want Kerry to win." (This gives Kerry two public endorsements from foreign leaders: Kim Jung Il, North Korea's Communist dictator and all-round fruitcake, threatening to provide terrorists with nuclear WMD; and now a Socialist intent on appeasing those very same terrorists. Congratulations, Comrade Kerry!)

While some -- including the majority of Spanish voters -- chided Aznar's government for pinning early blame on ETA, the Basque terrorist group, before indicating Islamist involvement, the facts are more sobering. The combination of ETA and al-Qa'ida m.o.'s, together with a growing body of evidence, points to the possibility of a combined operation by the two terror groups -- both intent on the overthrow of western governments.


Mark Alexander is Executive Editor and Publisher of The Federalist, a Townhall.com member group.

?2004 The Federalist

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Annan: U.N.-Iraq Oil-For-Food Faces Probe
By BARBARA BORST
ASSOCIATED PRESS

UNITED NATIONS (AP) -

Secretary-General Kofi Annan announced plans Friday for an independent commission to investigate alleged corruption in the Iraq oil-for-food program.

Annan revealed his decision to go beyond a current internal U.N. probe Friday night in a letter to the Security Council.

The world organization has been hit with allegations that U.N. staff may have reaped millions of dollars from the oil-for-food program that helped Iraqis cope with U.N. sanctions.

U.S. congressional investigators have also looked into the program, charging this week that Saddam Hussein's government smuggled oil, added surcharges and collected kickbacks to rake in $10.1 billion in violation of the United Nations' oil-for-food program.

The U.N. chief said in the letter he wants "an independent, high-level inquiry to investigate the allegations relating to the administration and management of the program, including allegations of fraud and corruption."

Annan's letter didn't elaborate on how an independent probe would be handled. He said he would address this in a further letter.

Annan told journalists that he had been talking with Security Council members about the scope of the investigation and the need for international cooperation to make it effective.

"I think we need to have an independent investigation, an investigation that can be as broad as possible to look into all these allegations which have been made and get to the bottom of this because I don't think we need to have our reputation impugned," Annan said earlier Friday.

Annan indicated he didn't need security council approval for the probe, but said he wanted its support.

The oil-for-food program was established by the U.N. Security Council in December 1996 to help the Iraqi population cope with U.N. sanctions imposed after Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

The program, which ended in November, allowed the former Iraqi regime to sell unlimited quantities of oil, provided the money went primarily to buy humanitarian goods and pay reparations to victims of the 1991 Gulf War.

The request followed publication in the Iraqi newspaper Al-Mada of a list of about 270 former Cabinet officials, legislators, political activists and journalists from more than 46 countries suspected of profiting from Iraqi oil sales.

U.N. officials have said that they would not comment on the U.S. figure of $10 billion by congressional investigators unless there was "a comprehensive investigation of all aspects of the oil-for-food program, not just U.N. personnel, but what governments and companies did."

"Any such investigation would require the support of the Security Council, and the secretary-general has already indicated this week he has been talking to members of the council" about expanding the inquiry, U.S. spokesman Fred Eckhard said Thursday.

The United Nations has already sent two letters to the Iraqi Governing Council and the U.S.-led coalition requesting evidence of corruption in the program - the latest a week ago.

In late January, the Governing Council asked the country's Oil Ministry to gather information on allegations that Saddam Hussein's regime bribed prominent foreigners with oil money to back his government.

During the program, Saddam's government decided on the goods it wanted, who should provide them and who could buy Iraqi oil. The Security Council committee monitoring sanctions checked the contracts, primarily for dual-use items that could be used to make weapons.

"We certainly knew there was skimming by Saddam and his cronies but with regard to U.N. officials, no," a U.S. official told The Associated Press Thursday, speaking on condition of anonymity. "We certainly hope there are no U.N. officials involved, but if there are some involved, then they should be held accountable."
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Spaniards Offended by Wolfowitz Comment
By ANDREW SELSKY
ASSOCIATED PRESS

MADRID, Spain (AP) -

From a fire station to a Madrid bar brimming with bullfighting paraphernalia, Spaniards said Friday they were offended by a senior Pentagon official's remark that bullfighting shows they are a brave people and they shouldn't run in the face of terrorism.

They saw the comment by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz as narrow-minded and promoting a stereotype.

"This is an ignorant comment," snapped Madrid firefighter Juan Carlos Yunquera, sitting on a bench outside his firehouse. "For a top official, it shows he doesn't know what he's talking about."

Yunquera, who heard the American official's remarks on the radio, pointed out that Spaniards overwhelmingly opposed the war in Iraq, even as Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar joined President Bush's "coalition of the willing" a year ago and later contributed troops for the occupation.

Islamic extremists have reputedly claimed responsibility for last week's Madrid rail bombings, which killed 202 people, as punishment for Aznar's stance on Iraq.

Prime Minister-designate Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero - whose party won general elections Sunday - has insisted he would withdraw Spain's 1,300 troops from Iraq unless the United Nations takes charge. It was a campaign pledge he made long before the bombings, Spain's worst terror attack.

In an interview on PBS television Thursday, Wolfowitz said Zapatero's withdrawal plan didn't seem very Spanish.

"The Spaniards are courageous people. I mean, we know it from their whole culture of bullfighting," Wolfowitz said. "I don't think they run in the face of an enemy. They haven't run in the face of the Basque terrorists. I hope they don't run in the face of these people."

Carlota Duce, a waitress at the Retinto Bar, where a bullfighting sword, lance and hat hung on a wall above patrons sipping beer and eating tapas, said she had no use for such comments.

"It's drivel," she said above the strumming of flamenco guitar on the stereo. "There is absolutely no comparison between bullfighting and Spain pulling out of Iraq."

Bartender Oliver Iglesias found a kernel of truth in Wolfowitz's words.

"We are indeed very brave," he said. "But no one here likes the war in Iraq. And there's a big difference between killing a bull and killing a person."

Gustavo de Aristegui, a legislator and spokesman in parliament for Aznar's Popular Party, also criticized Wolfowitz, saying: "A top-ranking politician should be more careful about the remarks he makes, and that's all I'm going to say about Mr. Wolfowitz."

Yunquera, the firefighter, said he was annoyed that Wolfowitz even mentioned bullfighting.

"I've never liked bullfighting," he said. "If I was to describe Spain, I would say Spain is a tolerant and joyful country and not even mention bullfighting."


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KERRY CALLED SECRET SERVICE AGENT 'SON OF A B*TCH' AFTER SLOPE SPILL

Dem presidential candidate John Kerry called his secret service agent a "son of a bitch" after the agent inadvertently moved into his path during a ski mishap in Idaho, sending Kerry falling into the snow.

When asked a moment later about the incident by a reporter on the ski run, Kerry said sharply, "I don't fall down," the "son of a b*itch knocked me over."

The Secret Service agent in question has complained about Kerry's treatment, top sources tell the DRUDGE REPORT.

Last month, Kerry began receiving Secret Service protection.

"Obviously, the complications and burden of being monitored 24-hours a day is not just an a simple inconvenience," a government source explained Friday. "But Senator Kerry should understand agents are working for his safety and well-being."

On Friday, Kerry, his snowboard strapped to his back, hiked past 9,000 feet on Durrance Peak, then snowboarded down the mountain, taking repeated tumbles. Reporters counted six falls, although Kerry was out of sight for part of the descent.

Developing...

-----------------------------------------------------------
Filed By Matt Drudge
Reports are moved when circumstances warrant
http://www.drudgereport.com for updates

Posted by maximpost at 11:52 PM EST
Permalink

Taiwanese president, vice president shot on eve of presidential election
Campaign rallies suspended; details murky on shooting
2004-03-19 / Associated Press /
President Chen Shui-bian and his vice president were wounded Friday when shots were fired into their motorcade on the final day of campaigning for a landmark election and referendum that could be a turning point in Taiwan's tense relationship with China.
Chen was shot in the stomach and Vice President Annette Lu was hit in the right knee. Their injuries were not life threatening, said Chiou I-jen, secretary-general in the Presidential Office.
There was no immediate report of arrests, and it was not clear what the motivation was for the apparent assassination attempt, in a street choked with supporters of the president in his hometown, the southern city of Tainan.
``They did not suffer life-threatening injuries. They urge the public to cool down,'' Chiou said at a news conference. He added that ``the president is conscious'' and ``can still direct the nation's affairs.''
The presidential vote will go ahead as planned on Saturday, an election official said.
The candidates' parties decided to suspend their campaign activities so that social order could be better maintained. The parties had planned massive rallies throughout the island.
Opposition candidate Lien Chan told a news conference, ``We were very, very shocked. We wish President Chen and Vice President Lu will recover soon. We strongly condemn any form of violence.''
Lien said the rallies would be canceled so that ``everyone can go home, rest and think about things calmly before going out to vote.''
A large crowd of Chen supporters gathered outside the hospital in Tainan. Using Chen's nickname, the crowd chanted, ``A-bian, get elected,'' as they pumped their arms in the air. Some waved green flags, the color of Chen's Democratic Progressive Party.
Chen was riding in a red convertible four-wheel-drive vehicle and waving to crowds lining the streets in his hometown. People were setting off celebratory fireworks as he drove by and early media reports said he was injured by firecrackers.
``It was definitely a gun attack,'' Chiou said, adding that officials found one bullet in Chen's stomach region.
``The vice president first felt pain in her knee and she thought it was caused by firecrackers,'' Chiou said. ``Then the president felt some wetness on his stomach area, and then they realized something was wrong.''
Lawmaker Wang Hsing-nan told TVBS cable news that he was traveling in a car behind Chen's vehicle.
``The president suffered a deep wound about three centimeters (1.2 inches) deep in the stomach,'' Wang told TVBS.
Officials have declined to speculate about who fired the shots.
This is the first time a Taiwanese president has been shot. However, Chen insists that his wife, Wu Shu-chen, was the target of an assassination attempt in 1985 when a truck ran over her three times, leaving her paralyzed from the waist down.
Chen has accused the Nationalist Party of being involved, but the truck driver and party insisted it was an accident and the driver wasn't charged.
This election has been an emotional, hotly contested race dominated by negative campaigning.
Lien is promising to take a softer approach with the island's biggest rival, China.
The Chinese government had no immediate public reaction to the shootings. The Foreign Ministry referred questions to the Cabinet's Taiwan Affairs Office, which didn't answer telephone calls.
China is traditionally a major issue in Taiwanese elections. The two sides split when the Communists took over the mainland in 1949, and Beijing is pressuring Taiwan to unify.
Lien and Chen agree on most basic issues involving China policy. Neither candidate favors immediate unification, and both are highly distrustful of the Communist leadership.
However, Chen has been more aggressive in pushing for a Taiwanese identity separate from China's, and this has raised tensions with Beijing. China has threatened to attack if Taiwan seeks a permanent split.
Chen also plans an unprecedented islandwide referendum on the day of the election.
Voters will be asked whether Taiwan should beef up its defenses to protect against hundreds of Chinese missiles pointed at the island.
China, which claims Taiwan is part of its territory and insists the two should be unified, has criticized the referendum, fearing it could lead to a future vote on Taiwanese independence.
----------------------------------------------
Assassination bid may help Chen in polls
By Laurence Eyton

TAIPEI - President Chen Shui-bian was wounded, but not critically, in an assassination attempt on the eve of the presidential election and controversial referendum Saturday on targeted Chinese missiles that has divided this island, provoked Beijing and prompted warnings from Washington. Taiwan was in shock; Chen might benefit from a sympathy vote.

Chen was released from the hospital, all campaigning was suspended, the polling will go ahead as planned on Saturday, and Chen - who leans toward independence and stresses a separate Taiwanese identity - might receive a sympathy vote. The election has been too close to call and a two-week blackout on polling results has made it impossible to predict the winner.

Political violence is virtually unknown on this island of 23 million people, including 16 million eligible voters, and shock and grief were widespread. The assassination attempt was considered likely to boost Chen's chances of reelection. Core supporters were expected to be more motivated to vote while floating voters were expected to see a vote for Chen as a vote against political violence.

Chen, 54, and his running mate Annette Lu, 59, were shot at 1:45pm Friday as they rode in an open vehicle in a motorcade in Chen's home town of Tainan in the south of the island. Chen was grazed by a bullet across the stomach. He did not lose consciousness, walked into the hospital for treatment and urged the population to remain calm. Lu was shot in the right knee; she also was treated and released. Chen had not been wearing a bulletproof vest, as had been reported earlier.

Chen's wound was 11 centimeters long and three centimeters deep, requiring 14 stitches.

TV viewers saw dramatic pictures of the president standing in a red open-top four-wheel-drive continuing to wave as a red blood stain spread across the front of his white windbreaker. He appeared not to notice that he had been wounded.

"They are both conscious and their lives are not in danger," Chen's chief of staff, Chiou I-jen, told a news conference.

All campaigning was suspended by all parties - Chen's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the rival Kuomintang (KMT) and People First Party (PFP), together forming the so-called pan-blue alliance that is considered sympathetic to Beijing and favored by the Chinese government.

Although campaigning was suspended, supporters of both sides continued to assemble in places designated as rally venues into the evening, and police were concerned that clashes might take place between the rival camps.

Several shots were fired, as Chen's supporters were setting off firecrackers, drowning the noise of the gunshots. At first Chen's security detail thought that he had been injured by flying debris from the firecrackers. The bullet hole through the jeep's windshield told a different story.

Police say two shots were fired from two different handguns and that two spent shell cases had been recovered from the scene.

They issued sketches of two men they wanted to interview, but declined to say anything more. A news blackout was imposed on the investigation.

Chen, head of the DPP, was facing off against his presidential rival Lien Chan of the KMT and his running mate James Soong of the PFP.

The election campaign has been extraordinarily tense, with the two camps running neck and neck for months and both sides suggesting that defeat would mean the end of Taiwan's current political status, in a manner abhorrent to their supporters - an apparent reference to either China's military intervention or increased influence on an island where Taiwanese prize their separate identity.

Chen's supporters believe that unification with China is inevitable if he loses while the opposition pan-blues believe a Chen victory would make Taiwan independence - and China's military intervention - inevitable. As a result the atmosphere has been one of desperation; some analysts think the shooting was the result of the febrile election atmosphere.

Chen was elected to the presidency in 2000 with only 39 percent of the vote. The election has been close and Chen has narrowed the distance between himself and Lien by emphasizing the importance of Taiwan's distinct identity, separate from China that regards the island as a breakaway province. China has vowed to reunify island and mainland at some point, even if military force is required - a conflict that would draw in the United States.

Chen also has won support by emphasizing that China is menacing the island - and as if to make his point, China and France conducted joint military exercises in the Taiwan Strait this week. Chen also succeeded in pushing through a "defensive" referendum - to be held on Saturday at the same time as the presidential vote.

Voters will be asked whether China should be requested to remove almost 500 missiles currently targeted at Taiwan and, if Beijing refuses, whether Taiwan should buy advanced military defense technology, such as anti-missile systems. Voters also will be asked whether they favor resumed dialogue with China on improving relations.

China supports the opposition ticket and US President George W Bush has warned Chen about holding a provocative referendum that could upset the delicate balance in the Taiwan Strait and among the US, China and Taiwan.

(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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Referendum planning a travesty of democracy
By Laurence Eyton

TAIPEI - Taiwan's holding of its first national referendum on Saturday has been cast by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), whose President Chen Shui-bian is up for re-election the same day, as a triumph for democracy in Taiwan - whatever the outcome. But there are major flaws in the referendum process and the degree to which these flaws are exploited by the opposition will be an essential indicator of the degree to which the "pan-blue alliance" of the formerly authoritarian Kuomintang (KMT) and its smaller ally, the People First Party (PFP) are really committed to democratic values. This will be all the more significant, of course, if Chen loses his election fight and the opposition pan-blues retake power.

Taiwan's passage of its Referendum Law in November brought to a close a 15-year fight to turn a constitutional provision allowing referendums into an acceptable law that spells out who can call them, when, how and in what circumstances they are to be considered valid and binding. The new law, however, did not deal with the technicalities of the voting procedure. That has been up to the administrative wisdom of the Central Election Commission (CEC), a cabinet-level body, to organize.

Hitherto the Central Election Commission has enjoyed an impressive reputation for efficiency. Taiwan vote counting is very fast - it should take only three and a half hours to count the 12 million votes cast in Saturday's presidential election - and, for a country with Taiwan's history of corrupt election practices, the CEC is impressively honest (the corruption taking place before the votes are cast).

In designing the rules for the balloting on Saturday, however, the CEC has covered itself with ignominy, reversing itself on just about every aspect of the balloting at least once - having, as one foreign journalist described it "more flip-flops than a Spanish beach holiday" - and has ended up with a procedure that has been excoriated by international experts.

Complications: Each voter gets three ballots
By running the referendum in tandem with the presidential election, the government left the CEC with the task of working out how to give each voter three ballot papers - the referendum has two questions with a separate ballot for each - and making sure they fill them in correctly and put them into the right boxes.

This proved to be no simple task, and it was severely complicated by the opposition of the pan-blues to the entire referendum process and their encouragement to local election officials to break the law by refusing to cooperate with the CEC. When the officials realized that they would face five-year jail terms if they listened to the pan-blues, their blatantly illegal initial position was modified to simply being as obstructive to the Central Election Commission as possible.

Originally the CEC wanted voters to pick up all three ballots in the same place and cast them in the same place. This, the commission said, was the only way to ensure complete ballot secrecy. What the CEC feared - and what might well come to pass - was that since the pan-blues were campaigning not against voting "yes" in the referendum but against taking part in it at all, even picking up the ballot papers - to separate voting for the president and the referendum into two distinct processes - would enable observers to see who voted for the referendum against the pan-blues' wishes and who didn't.

This matters, since in Taiwan patron-client politics has never been eradicated and there are various types of coercion used at election time. Because of the nature of the secret ballot, however, this patron-client coercion has slowly been declining in effectiveness. Company bosses will, for example order their employees to vote in a particular way and then examine their ID cards afterwards to make sure they voted. Given that the ID card records that a person voted but not of course how they voted, this was mere bluster to the disobedient employee, though undoubtedly rumors that "they" could find out what one did in the voting booth have influenced the more timid in the past.

Grumpy polling officials unlikely to help voters
The problem for the CEC was that while local election officials, most of whom are in the pan-blue camp, might have stuck strictly to the letter of the law as to how polling might take place, the novelty of the process might require help and explanation to the voters - which the disgruntled election officials might not see fit to provide, leading to confusion, miscast ballots and anger.

In effect, the Central Election Commission has, through a number of about-faces on previously announced policies, given in to the obstructionists for the sake of having the voting process go reasonably smoothly. After announcing that collection of all ballot papers would be in one place at one time and voting would be in one booth, it changed its procedure so that now voters much pick up a presidential ballot and cast it, then pick up the referendum ballots and cast those.

The CEC also originally said that miscast ballots - those put in the wrong box - would be counted. In all fairness it might be said that this was a bit of a sleight of hand on the government's part; it was, in fact, a way of maximizing the referendum vote, which by a quirk of the Referendum Law needs one half of all eligible voters to cast ballots in order for the vote to be considered valid. Both the pan-blues and legal experts, however, quickly pointed out that it was against the law to deliberately miscast one's ballot - though in fact people are hardly ever prosecuted for doing so. Nevertheless, a miscast ballot was an illegal ballot and how, they asked, could illegal ballots be counted as valid ballots?

This caused another flip-flop as the CEC reversed itself, and said that miscast ballots would not be counted.

Final ignominy: Anti-referendum propaganda okay
The final ignominy for the CEC came as a result of a part of the Presidential Election and Recall Law that prohibits people on election day from displaying campaign material for any specific candidate within 30 meters of a polling station. Yet the CEC will allow people to wear stickers and items of clothing encouraging others not to vote in the referendum into the polling stations themselves.

If this seemed blatantly contradictory, CEC chairman Huang Shih-cheng defended himself by saying that the law forbids campaign material relating to candidates but the law covering referendums has no such provision. As long as people do not try in any other way to persuade others not to vote, they may wear what they like.

What has bothered many commentators is that there is nothing to prevent anti-referendum election officials from wearing anti-referendum stickers, and many feel that this falls far from the standards of impartiality that such officials should display.

But the biggest concern is with the two-stage voting process. On KMT opposition to the referendum, Bruno Kaufmann, president of the Initiative and Referendum Institute in Europe and a leading international expert on referendums, told a news conference on Thursday: "With the current arrangement where voters need to line up separately to vote in the referendum, voters will be forced to reveal whether they support the referendum or not to others at the voting stations. This is a procedural problem that needs to be addressed."

Others are also concerned. Bo Tedards, of the Taiwan Network for Free Elections, wrote in a local paper: "The adoption of the KMT-promoted 'two-stage' voting ... significantly facilitates party and faction operatives in and around polling stations to monitor whether voters are participating in the referendum.

"Given the former prevalence of vote-buying, intimidation and other forms of pressure (by employers, for example), there is every reason to be concerned that these time-honored tactics could be brought to bear on the issue of participation in or boycott of the referendum. It is quite possible that voters, especially those who have previously experienced such pressure, may well adjust their choices as a result," Tedards wrote.

As to what actually will happen, voting day will show. But in the run up to the poll, there was significant anger toward the government on the part of referendum supporters who see the CEC as having compromised the "free and fair" nature of the referendum for the sake of placating opposition from election officials who are actually opponents of the referendum process.

(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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Afghan offensive: Grand plans hit rugged reality
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - The plan to eradicate the Afghan resistance was straightforward: US-led coalition forces would drive from inside Afghanistan into the last real sanctuary of the insurgents, and meet the Pakistani military driving from the opposite direction. There would then be no safe place left to hide for the Taliban and al-Qaeda remnants, or, presumably, for Osama bin Laden himself. The plan's implementation began with the launch of operation "Mountain Storm" around March 15.

But the insurgents have a plan of their own, which they have revealed to Asia Times Online. Conceived by foreign resistance fighters of Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Arab origin, it is a classic guerrilla stratagem that involves enmeshing the mighty military forces of the United States and its allies in numerous local conflicts, diverting them from their real goal and dissipating their strength.

The insurgents' plan, too, has been put into effect, and the fierce fighting in Pakistan's tribal agency of South Waziristan last Tuesday, when resistance fighters and their tribal sympathizers took on the Pakistani military and routed it, was an early manifestation. Now Pakistan must quell its own rebel tribespeople before it continues to help the US with Mountain Storm. Indeed, Pakistan is attempting just that, on Thursday launching a "full force" operation in South Waziristan, using artillery and helicopter gunships. At the same time, tribal opposition to the Pakistani military has spread to North Waziristan - all according to plan, it seems.

In an exclusive meeting with Asia Times Online, a prominent planner of the Afghan resistance spelled out the strategy. Pointing to a hand-drawn map, the insurgent indicated an area he called "Shawal". Technically speaking, "Shawal" falls on the Afghan side of the Durand Line that divides Pakistan and Afghanistan. (Editor's note: The border area inside North Waziristan is also called Shawal.) In reality, "Shawal" is a no-man's land, a place no one would want to go to unless he were as tough as the local tribespeople, a guerrilla fighter taking on the US, or, perhaps, Osama bin Laden. Shawal is a deep and most dangerous maze. The insurgent described it thus:

"One crosses the first mountain and sees a similar mountain emerge and after crossing another mountain he feels a spin in his head and thinks the whole world in this area is the same and leads the way nowhere."

This is the last safe haven for the Afghan resistance, from which they launch attacks on coalition forces and the Afghan government, and to which they return to regroup and receive sustenance from the locals. And this is the kind of terrain the US and its allies will encounter in their drive to occupy "Shawal" whether they come in from the Afghan side via Bermal, or from the Pakistan side via South or North Waziristan.

Those who are masters of this maze can raid the Afghan provinces of Ghazni, Paktia, and Paktika. The only masters are people of the Data Khail and Zaka Khail tribes and the insurgents who base themselves there.

The Data Khail and Zaka Khail have a long history of defiance and have never capitulated to any intruder. The tribesmen are as tough as the terrain, and they have been known for centuries for their strong bonds of loyalty, such that "even an enemy who requests shelter would be given it". These two tribes are now the protectors of the Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters based in "Shawal". By occupying the area, the US hopes to deprive the insurgents of the tribes' crucial support. Forced to flee, the insurgents would eventually fall into the hands of the United States' local proxy networks of anti-Taliban tribes and warlords. Such is the plan.

In response, the insurgents have decided that instead of avoiding confrontation with the coalition forces as they have previously, they will meet them head-on in this unforgiving landscape, while diverting their attention with attacks and harassment in other areas.

The Pakistanis, under intense US pressure to help out, and as of this week's visit by Secretary of State Colin Powell the recipients of even more US military largess (see Pakistan as key non-NATO ally), are already bogged down in South Waziristan. Sources in Wana, headquarters of South Waziristan agency, tell Asia Times Online that a full brigade of the Pakistani army, along with paramilitary troops and backed by artillery, helicopters and two other aircraft, is now attacking tribal positions in Kaloo Shah, Sheen Warsak and Azam Warsak. Sources say that the targeted Wazir tribes have asked neighboring tribes to join the fray.

And as predicted by Asia Times Online (How the US set Pakistan aflame, March 18), the South Waziristan fighting has spread to other areas. According to latest information, an attack on Pakistani troops in North Waziristan has killed a major and several soldiers. The incident, near the "Shawal" area, means the Pakistani army has a new, simultaneous problem to deal with, and their advance has been stopped. The operation that began as a hunt for Osama bin Laden has already degenerated into sideshows against rebel Pakistani tribespeople.

In Afghanistan, US-led forces can expect increasing hit-and-run attacks by local Taliban, who will then melt back into the local population. While the troops engage in house-to-house searches for the perpetrators, the drive for "Shawal" is dissipated and slowed.

It seems the insurgents' plan is already paying off. How they go about building on their initial success will become clear in the coming weeks.

(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)



Posted by maximpost at 6:22 PM EST
Permalink


>> HUGGING PERVEZ?

washingtonpost.com
Musharraf Cites Nuclear Dealings
Powell Told of Government Involvement
By Glenn Kessler
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, March 19, 2004; Page A16
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, March 18 -- Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said Thursday he had received new information from Pakistan's president about the Pakistani government's dealings with Abdul Qadeer Khan, who admitted last month he had sold nuclear designs and components to other countries.
But Powell, who came here saying he would seek details on the links between the disgraced Khan's technology smuggling ring and Pakistani officials, said he would wait to analyze the information in Washington before providing details. "What I want to do is reflect on what he said to me and discuss it with some of my other colleagues back in Washington before I comment on the specifics of it," Powell told reporters traveling with him.
Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the president, pardoned Khan last month after Khan acknowledged a broad scheme that netted him tens of millions of dollars and spread nuclear technology to Libya, North Korea and Iran. But questions have persisted about how Khan's network could operate without the knowledge or participation of senior Pakistani military, intelligence and other government officials. "No responsible government of Pakistan should have tolerated such a thing, and I hope they did not," Powell said, adding, "We got to get all the facts."
The Bush administration has dealt carefully with the matter of Pakistani government links to the Khan network because Pakistan is considered crucial to the war on terror. Reflecting that caution, Powell announced after meeting with the foreign minister here that the administration would grant Pakistan the coveted status of "major non-NATO ally," making it easier for the country to procure military equipment. The announcement came as Pakistani troops waged a bloody battle in a remote tribal area against al Qaeda and Taliban fighters.
Powell rejected any link between the awarding of Pakistan's new status and the Khan investigation. Naming Pakistan a major non-NATO ally is "part of a normal relationship with countries we have military-to-military relations with, and we think it is a sensible thing to do," Powell said. "It is not a reward for A.Q. Khan. It's part of a continuing relationship."
The benefits of the designation for Pakistan are unclear. Easier procurement of surplus military equipment might help Pakistan fight al Qaeda, but the designation does not confer the same mutual defense and security guarantees that members of NATO receive, and Powell acknowledged it can be largely symbolic. In recent months, the Bush administration has awarded the title to Kuwait and Thailand, which joined 10 other nations.
India, Pakistan's South Asia nuclear rival, does not have this status, a fact that Pakistani officials were eager to note. But the Bush administration gave India its own plum this year -- an agreement to help India with its nuclear energy and space technology in return for a promise to use the aid for peaceful purposes and to help block the spread of dangerous weapons.
But Pakistan's Islamic opposition heavily criticized the U.S. offer, saying it would make Pakistan a client of the United States.
"I will be very unhappy if Pakistan is inching towards this alliance with the U.S.," Khurshid Ahmad, a leader of the fundamentalist Jamaat-i-Islami party, told the Agence France-Presse news service.
"This is neither an honor, nor a step towards global security. We have to avoid becoming a mercenary and a client state," Ahmad said, adding it was not a reward but "a new trap."
The fierce fighting in the tribal region, which Pakistani officials said had killed 15 soldiers and 26 militants, has also stirred criticism in Pakistan. The newspaper Daily Times carried an editorial cartoon today showing Powell emerging from his plane and using the coffins of the dead as his steps.
Powell, a retired four-star Army general, also said he and Musharraf had a detailed "soldier-to-soldier" discussion of the fighting. Musharraf seized power in 1999 in a bloodless military coup.
Khan, who ran Pakistan's main nuclear weapons plant for many years and is known as the creator of the country's nuclear bomb, said last month that he had passed nuclear secrets without government authorization. The Pakistani government launched an investigation of Khan last year after receiving evidence from the United States.
But Powell said he believes Musharraf -- who was Army chief of staff and then president during the height of Khan's dealings -- is "serious about this." He noted that Khan is revered in Pakistan and "they are all taken aback by the fact" Khan took the knowledge "he had developed in helping his own nation to help nations that shouldn't have been helped."
After his talks in Islamabad, Powell flew to Kuwait City.
[On Friday morning, he left Kuwait and made an unscheduled visit to Baghdad, where he plans to meet with Iraqi and occupation officials.]

? 2004 The Washington Post Company

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Colombia's FARC using suicide bombers
BOGOTA, Colombia, March 19 (UPI) -- Colombian officials fear a Muslim terrorist is training young revolutionaries for suicide attacks in the country, the Telegraph reported Friday.
The head of the country's secret police said Thursday Luis Hipolito Ospina, a devout Muslim and member of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, had created a squad of 22 suicide bombers ages 12-25.
Although often used by Muslim extremists, suicide attacks are not a common tactic of Latin America's Marxist insurgencies.
"This guerrilla set up an indoctrination program for young people," said Jorge Noguera, the head of Colombia's secret police.
"The ultimate aim of this suicide squad was to murder President Alvaro Uribe."
Police first learned of the squad in February last year, after FARC placed a car bomb in a Bogota club, killing 37 people and injuring 160.
But hard evidence about the squad was not obtained until last week, when the army arrested a young man known as "Heriberto."
The 19-year-old admitted he had been sent on a suicide mission to blow up the secret police headquarters in a provincial capital, Florencia, but had lost his nerve.
Copyright 2004 by United Press International.
All rights reserved.

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Kerry blasts ex-Malaysian PM
WASHINGTON, March 18 (UPI) -- Democratic presidential frontrunner John Kerry rejected the support of former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohammad Thursday.
"John Kerry rejects any association with former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad, an avowed anti-Semite whose views are totally deplorable," Kerry Foreign Policy Adviser Rand Beers said. "The world needs leaders who seek to bring people together, not drive them apart with hateful and divisive rhetoric."
"This election will be decided by the American people and the American people alone," Beers said. "It is simply not appropriate for any foreign leader to endorse a candidate in America's presidential election. John Kerry does not seek and will not accept any such endorsements."
Copyright 2004 by United Press International.
All rights reserved.
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Russians still think Iraq war was 'crime'
MOSCOW, March 18 (UPI) -- Most Russians believe the U.S. and British conquest of Iraq a year ago was a crime against the Iraqi people, RosBusinessConsulting reported Thursday.
Some 62 percent of Russians said the war was a crime and only 23 percent believe it was necessary, indicated a poll conducted by the Russian Center for Public Opinion, also known as VCIOM. Only 4 percent fully supported the U.S.position, RosbusinessConsulting reported.
Russians were also skeptical that the United States had achieved its goals in Iraq. Only 21 percent thought all targets of the Allied military operation there had been reached, the poll showed.
VCIOM said the poll surveyed 1,587 people in 100 Russian cities and towns. It was conducted Feb. 21-22 and has a margin of error of 3.4 percent.
Copyright 2004 by United Press International.
All rights reserved.

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DEA agent charged with witness tampering
WASHINGTON, March 18 (UPI) -- A U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration agent has been charged with witness tampering in Arizona, the Justice Department said Thursday.
Douglas C. Furlow, 43, a special agent with the Phoenix Field Division of the DEA, was named in a federal indictment unsealed Thursday.
The indictment said Furlow allegedly interfered with a criminal investigation in which an undercover DEA informant was to make a drug buy leading to a suspected drug trafficker's arrest. Furlow allegedly called the trafficker and warned him the informant was working with law enforcement, the indictment said.
The DEA's investigation was aborted and neither the drug buy nor the arrest could be made. The trafficker later fled.
If convicted, Furlow faces up to 10 years in prison and a $250,000 fine.
The prosecution is being handled by the Public Integrity Section of the Justice Department. The investigation is being conducted by the Tucson Field Office of the Office of the Inspector General and the DEA's Office of Professional Responsibility, Western Field Division.
Copyright 2004 by United Press International.
All rights reserved.

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Energy offical says bunker busters needed
WASHINGTON, March 18 (UPI) -- A senior U.S. Energy Department official defended research into so-called nuclear "bunker buster" bombs to a House panel Thursday.
Linton Brooks, the undersecretary for nuclear security at the Department of Energy, told a House Armed Services subcommittee research in a device that can penetrate underground bunkers was a deterrent to enemies who use such fortified facilities to house their weapons and command facilities, Congress Daily reported.
Nevertheless, he insisted no final decision had been made on whether to proceed with development of such weapons.
President Bush's 2005 budget calls for spending $485 million on research into such devices through 2009.
A four-year, $72 million study of the issue is scheduled for completion in 2006.
Critics charge such a weapon would never work because of the difficulty of getting the nuclear detonation far enough underground to successfully disrupt operations.
Copyright 2004 by United Press International.
All rights reserved.

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washingtonpost.com
GAO: Iraq Oil Program Profits Understated
Investigation Finds $10.1 Billion Earned Illegally Under Hussein's Government
By Colum Lynch
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, March 19, 2004; Page A16
The former Iraqi government of Saddam Hussein pocketed more than $10.1 billion in smuggled oil revenue and illicit proceeds from a U.N.-run humanitarian program between 1997 and 2002, $3.5 billion more than previously estimated, according to testimony by the U.S. General Accounting Office yesterday.
The latest GAO figures, presented to the House subcommittee on oversight and investigations, have come to light as a result of a global investigation by the Iraqi Assets Working Group, according to two GAO officials, Joseph A. Christoff and Davi M. D'Agostino, who testified yesterday.
The interagency body, headed by the Department of Treasury, is seeking to locate and seize $10 billion to $40 billion in estimated hidden Iraqi assets that can be used to rebuild the country. To date, $2 billion in seized Iraqi assets, including $750,000 in cash found with Hussein, has been channeled into Iraq's recovery.
The GAO charged that Iraq's ruling elites acquired $5.7 billion from the proceeds of oil smuggled through Syria, Jordan, Turkey and the Persian Gulf region. They raised an additional $4.4 billion in illegal revenue through the imposition of oil surcharges and commissions from suppliers.
"According to some Security Council members, the surcharge was up to 50 cents per barrel of oil and the commission was up to 5 to 10 percent of the commodity contract," the GAO stated. "The funds were paid directly to officials connected with the Iraqi government."
The GAO testimony came as the United Nations announced that it is seeking to expand an investigation into allegations of corruption by U.N. officials who managed the former program, known as Oil for Food. U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan has said he has seen no evidence of wrongdoing by U.N. officials, but he has ordered a preliminary investigation by the agency's internal watchdog, the Office for Internal Oversight Services (OIOS).
The charges stem from a January report in a Baghdad newspaper that scores of prominent foreign dignitaries, including the head of the U.N. program, Benon Sevan, allegedly received vouchers to purchase large quantities of oil for less than market value. U.N. critics alleged that the recipients of the vouchers would sell them to middlemen who would resell the oil to a refinery.
The Wall Street Journal's editorial page and an adviser to the Iraqi Governing Council, British businessman Claude Hankes-Drielsma, have leveled additional charges and pressed for an independent investigation.
Sevan has denied the charges through a U.N. spokesman, and Annan has voiced confidence in the innocence of the longtime U.N. diplomat. But in response to the allegations, Annan's office has approached members of the Security Council to explore broadening the investigation and passing a Security Council resolution requiring states to cooperate.
"We are in the process of turning over to the OIOS all the oil-for-food records, that's 60 to 80 boxes," U.N. spokesman Fred Eckhard said in an interview yesterday. "But the secretary general feels that to get a full picture of what went on with oil for food, we would have to look at the whole picture and not just Benon Sevan."
Chile's U.N. ambassador, Heraldo Munoz, discussed the issue yesterday with a senior U.N. aide and said Annan is pressing for the appointment of a review panel or a private accounting firm to conduct an independent audit of the oil-for-food program.
"Since an internal audit would be seen as insufficient, the idea of an external investigator sounds not only reasonable but the most adequate," Munoz said in an interview.
The United States, France and other key Security Council members have yet to sign on to a broader independent inquiry that could question their oversight of the program or investigate their national companies.
Senior U.N. officials say they have not ruled out the possibility of corruption within their ranks, but they have expressed suspicion that the organization is being unfairly targeted by Iraqi critics when the United Nations is mending its relationship with the Bush administration and preparing for an expanded role in Iraq. Critics include U.S. conservatives and Ahmed Chalabi, the fiercest critic of the United Nations within the Iraqi Governing Council and a close associate of Hankes-Drielsma's.
The Security Council established the oil-for-food program in December 1996 to allow Iraq to sell oil to purchase food, medicine and other humanitarian goods. According to the GAO, Iraq sold more than $67 billion worth of oil before the program was shut down. The program's proceeds were transferred to an Iraqi account controlled by the United States and its military allies.

? 2004 The Washington Post Company
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>> GAO.GOV

United States General Accounting Office GAO
For Release on Delivery Expected at 10:00 a.m. EST
Thursday, March 18, 2004 RECOVERING IRAQ'S ASSETS
Preliminary Observations on U.S. Efforts and Challenges
Statement of Joseph A. Christoff, Director International Affairs and Trade and Davi M. D'Agostino, Director Financial Markets and Community Investment
GAO-04-579T
www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-579T. To view the full product, including the scope and methodology, click on the link above. For more information, contact Joseph Christoff at (202) 512-8789 or christoffj@gao.gov or Davi M. D'Agostino at (202) 512-5431 or dagostinod@gao.gov.
Highlights of GAO-04-579T, a testimony to Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, House Committee on Financial Services
March 18, 2004
RECOVERING IRAQ'S ASSETS
Preliminary Observations on U.S. Efforts and Challenges GAO estimates that from 1997 through 2002, the former Iraqi regime acquired $10.1 billion in illegal revenues related to the Oil for Food program--$5.7 billion in oil smuggled out of Iraq and $4.4 billion in illicit surcharges on oil sales and after-sales charges on suppliers. This estimate is higher than our May 2002 estimate of $6.6 billion because it includes 2002 data from oil revenues and contracts under the Oil for Food Program and newer estimates of illicit commissions from commodity suppliers. The United States has tapped the services of a variety of U.S. agencies and recently developed domestic and international tools in its efforts to recover Iraqi assets worldwide. Led by the Department of the Treasury, about 20 government entities have combined efforts to identify, freeze, and transfer the former regime's assets to Iraq. The United States also used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, as amended by provisions in the USA PATRIOT Act of 2001, to confiscate the property of the former Iraqi regime under U.S. jurisdiction and vest the assets in the U.S. Treasury. Finally, U.N. Security Council Resolution 1483 required all U.N. members to freeze without delay and immediately transfer assets of the former Iraqi regime to the new Development Fund for Iraq (DFI).
U.S. efforts to recover Iraqi assets have had varying results. In March 2003, the U.S. government quickly took control of Iraq's assets in the United States. From May to September 2003, the United States transferred $1.7 billion to Iraq to help pay for the salaries of Iraqi civil servants, ministry operations, and pensions. Within Iraq, U.S. military and coalition forces seized about $926 million of the regime's assets. Other countries froze about $3.7 billion of Iraqi regime assets in compliance with U.N. Security Council resolutions. As of March 2004, Treasury reported that more than 10 countries and the Bank for International Settlements had transferred approximately $751 million to the DFI. Little progress has been made in identifying and freezing additional Iraqi assets that remain hidden. While the amount of hidden assets accumulated by the former Iraqi regime is unknown, estimates range from $10 to $40 billion in illicit earnings.
The United States faces key challenges in recovering Iraq's assets. First, recovering the former regime's assets was not initially a high priority in the overall U.S. effort in Iraq. Second, U.S. officials stated that many countries needed to adopt additional legislation to implement the U.N. requirements and transfer the funds to the DFI. U.S. expectations for the quick transfer of funds may have been overly optimistic given the legal capabilities of some countries. Third, the impending transfer of sovereignty to an interim Iraqi government on June 30, 2004, may further complicate U.S. efforts to locate and recover assets of the former regime. It is uncertain whether the new government will allow the United States to continue its hunt for the former regime's assets. Rebuilding Iraq is a U.S. national security priority. Billions of dollars are needed for Iraq's reconstruction. The U.S. government and the international community have undertaken important efforts to recover the assets of the former regime and return them to the Iraqi people. In this testimony, GAO will present its preliminary observations on the recovery effort. Specifically, GAO (1) updates its estimate of the revenues diverted from the Oil for Food Program, (2) describes the U.S. government agencies working on the asset recovery effort, (3) discusses the results of U.S. efforts, and (4) highlights challenges that the United States faces in recovering Iraqi assets.
As this testimony reflects GAO's preliminary observations, GAO is making no recommendations.
Page 1 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
Madam Chairwoman and Members of the Subcommittee:
We are pleased to be here today to discuss our preliminary observations on U.S. and international efforts to recover assets of the former Iraqi regime and transfer them to Iraq for reconstruction. Rebuilding Iraq is a U.S. national security and foreign policy priority. Billions of dollars are needed for meeting humanitarian needs, stabilizing Iraq, and repairing the country's infrastructure. The U.S. government and the international community have undertaken important efforts to recover the assets of the former regime and return them to the Iraqi people. In May 2003, this committee asked GAO to examine how the U.S. government works with the international community to recover the assets of targeted foreign regimes. We will complete this broader report on U.S. recovery efforts for the committee in May 2004. Today, we will present our preliminary observations on Iraqi asset recovery efforts. Specifically, we will (1) update our estimate of the revenues diverted from the Oil for Food Program by the former Iraqi regime, (2) describe the U.S. agencies working to recover Iraqi assets, (3) discuss the results of U.S. efforts, and (4) highlight challenges in asset recovery. To address these issues, we reviewed documents and statements from the Departments of the Treasury, State, Defense, and Justice on the asset recovery effort, the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA)1 in Iraq on the funds transferred to Iraq, and the United Nations on the Oil for Food Program. We met with U.S. officials working on the recovery effort, including officials from the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), analysts from U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies, financial regulators, and representatives from U.S. financial institutions responsible for implementing U.S. orders to freeze and transfer blocked Iraqi assets. We have yet to review the reliability of the data provided by the Department of the Treasury and the CPA.
1The CPA is the U.N.-recognized coalition authority, led by the United States and the United
Kingdom, responsible for the temporary governance of Iraq.
Page 2 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
* We estimate that from 1997 through 2002, the former Iraqi regime acquired $10.1 billion in illegal revenues related to the Oil for Food Program--$5.7 billion in oil smuggled out of Iraq and $4.4 billion in illicit surcharges on oil sales and commissions from suppliers. This estimate is higher than our reported May 2002 estimate of $6.6 billion because it includes 2002 data from oil revenues and contracts under the Oil for Food Program, newer estimates of illicit commissions from commodity suppliers. 2
* The United States has tapped the services of several U.S. agencies and used recently developed domestic and international tools in its efforts to recover Iraqi assets worldwide. Led by the Department of the Treasury, about 20 government entities have combined efforts to identify, freeze, and transfer the former regime's assets to Iraq. The United States also used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), as amended by provisions in the USA PATRIOT Act of 2001, to confiscate the property of the former Iraqi regime under U.S. jurisdiction and vest the assets in the U.S. Treasury. Finally, U.N. Security Council Resolution 1483 required all U.N. members to freeze without delay and immediately transfer assets of the former Iraqi regime to the new Development Fund for Iraq (DFI).
* U.S. efforts to recover Iraqi assets have had varying results.
* In March 2003, the U.S. government quickly took control of Iraq'sassets in the United States. From May to September 2003, the United States transferred $1.7 billion to Iraq to help pay for the salaries of Iraqi civil servants, ministry operations, and pensions. The United States also transferred $192 million to the DFI in July 2003. Most of the vested funds have been spent on reconstruction.
* Within Iraq, U.S. military and coalition forces seized about $926 million of the regime's assets. The CPA used these funds for Iraqi projects, ministry operations, and liquefied petroleum gas purchases.
* Other countries froze about $3.7 billion of Iraqi regime assets in compliance with U.N. Security Council resolutions. As of March 2004, Treasury reported that more than 10 countries and the Bank 2U.S. General Accounting Office, Weapons of Mass Destruction: U.N. Confronts Significant Challenges in implementing Sanctions Against Iraq, GAO-02-625 (Washington, DC.: May 23, 2002).
Summary
Page 3 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
for International Settlements had transferred approximately $751 million to the DFI. State Department and Treasury officials continue to work diplomatically with other countries to expedite the transfer of remaining Iraqi assets.
* Little progress has been made in identifying and freezing additional Iraqi assets that remain hidden. While the amount of hidden assets accumulated by the former Iraqi regime is unknown, estimates range from $10 billion to $40 billion in illicit earnings.
* The United States faces key challenges in recovering Iraq's assets. First, recovering the former regime's assets was not initially a high priority in the overall U.S. effort in Iraq. Second, U.S. expectations for the quick transfer of funds may have been overly optimistic given the legal capabilities of some countries. Third, the impending transfer of sovereignty to an interim Iraqi government may further complicate U.S. efforts to locate and recover assets of the former regime.
In August 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait, and the United Nations imposed sanctions against the regime. Security Council Resolution 661 of 1990, prohibited all nations from buying Iraqi oil and selling Iraq any commodities except food or medicines. The resolution also required member states to block the transfer of Iraqi assets from their countries. Consistent with this resolution, the President froze all Iraq's assets held in the United States. Other nations similarly froze Iraqi government assets in their countries.
In 1991, the Security Council offered to let Iraq sell oil under a U.N. program to meet its peoples' basic needs. The Iraqi government rejected the offer and, over the next 5 years, food shortages and a general deterioration in social services were reported.
In December 1996, the United Nations and Iraq agreed on the Oil for Food Program, which allowed Iraq to sell a set amount of oil to pay for food, medicine, and infrastructure repairs. The United Nations monitored and screened contracts that the Iraqi government signed with commodity suppliers. Iraq's oil revenue was placed in a U.N.-controlled escrow account. From 1997 through 2002, Iraq sold more than $67 billion of oil through the U.N. program and issued $38 billion in letters of credit for humanitarian goods. In May 2003, the Security Council passed Resolution 1483, which recognized the United States, Great Britain, and coalition partners as the authority for providing security and provisional
Background
Page 4 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
administration in Iraq. The resolution also ended the sanctions, except for the prohibition on exporting arms to Iraq.
We estimate that, from 1997 through 2002, the former Iraqi regime acquired $10.1 billion in illegal revenues related to the Oil for Food Program--$5.7 billion through oil smuggling and $4.4 billion through surcharges against oil sales and illicit commissions from commodity suppliers.3 This estimate is higher than the $6.6 billion we reported in May 2002.4 We updated this estimate to include (1) oil revenue and contract amounts for 2002, (2) updated letters of credit from prior years, and (3) newer estimates of illicit commissions from commodity suppliers. Oil was smuggled out through several routes, according to U.S. government officials and oil industry experts. Oil entered Syria by pipeline, crossed the borders of Jordan and Turkey by truck, and was smuggled through the Persian Gulf by ship. In addition to revenues from oil smuggling, the Iraqi government levied surcharges against oil purchasers and commissions against commodity suppliers participating in the Oil for Food Program. According to some Security Council members, the surcharge was up to 50 cents per barrel of oil and the commission was 5 to 10 percent of the commodity contract. The funds were paid directly to officials connected with the Iraqi government. In addition, according to a Department of Defense (DOD) official, a DOD report in September 2003 evaluated 759 contracts funded and approved under the Oil for Food Program. The study found that at least 48 percent of the contracts were overpriced and that on average the contracts were overpriced by 21 percent.
3This estimate is in 2003 U.S. constant dollars.
4U.S. General Accounting Office, Weapons of Mass Destruction: U.N. Confronts Significant Challenges in implementing Sanctions Against Iraq, GAO-02-625 (Washington, DC.: May 23, 2002).
Estimated Revenue Obtained Illegally by the Former Iraqi Regime from the Oil for Food Program Exceeds $10 Billion
Page 5 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
The United States has tapped the services of several U.S. agencies and used recently developed U.S. and international authorities in its efforts to recover Iraqi assets worldwide. About 20 entities, including those of the Departments of the Treasury, Homeland Security, Defense, Justice, State, intelligence agencies, law enforcement agencies, and the White House National Security Council, are involved in recovering Iraqi assets. To lead the asset recovery efforts, the United States created an interagency coordinating body headed by the Department of the Treasury. The Iraqi Assets Working Group has developed a strategy to identify, freeze, seize, and transfer former regime assets to Iraq. The working group's goals are to:
* Exploit documents and key financial figures in Iraq to better understand fund flows;
* Secure the cooperation of jurisdictions through which illicit funds have flowed so that working group members may exploit financial records and uncover the money trail;
* Secure the cooperation of jurisdictions in which illicit assets may reside to locate, freeze, and repatriate the assets;
* Engage the financial community in the hunt for illicit assets generally, and specifically secure the cooperation of the financial institutions through which illicit funds have flowed or may still reside;
* Develop a system to facilitate the fluid repatriation of funds; and
* Prepare for potential sanctions against uncooperative jurisdictions and financial institutions. The working group is leveraging the expertise of U.S. officials involved in efforts to recover assets of terrorists and money launderers. The U.S. Congress recently passed legislation containing provisions that allowed the President to confiscate foreign funds frozen in U.S. financial institutions. Specifically, provisions in the USA PATRIOT Act of 2001 amended IEEPA to allow the President to confiscate foreign property subject to U.S. jurisdiction in times of "on-going hostilities" or if the United States is attacked. These provisions gave the President the necessary authority, through an Executive Order, to confiscate the property of the former Iraqi regime and to vest these assets in the U.S. Treasury.
U.S. Efforts to Recover Iraqi Assets Involve Many Agencies and Use Recently Developed Domestic and International Authorities
Page 6 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
In addition, the State Department cited U.N. Security Council Resolution 1483 as an important vehicle for requiring other countries to transfer assets to Iraq. On May 22, 2003, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 1483, which (1) noted the establishment of the DFI, a special account in the name of the Central Bank of Iraq; and (2) required member states to freeze and immediately transfer to the DFI all assets of the former Iraqi government and of Saddam Hussein, senior officials of his regime and their family members. The resolution also included a unique immunity provision to protect the assets from new claims.
In 2003, the U.S. government quickly vested Iraq's assets held in the United States and transferred them to Iraq. Similarly, the U.S. military, in coordination with U.S. law enforcement agencies, seized assets of the former regime in Iraq. The CPA has used most of the vested and seized assets for reconstruction projects and ministry operations. U.S. officials noted that some other countries' efforts to transfer Iraqi funds have been slowed by their lack of implementing legislation. There has been little progress in recovering the regime's hidden assets. In 2003, the United States vested about $1.9 billion of the former regime's assets in the U.S. Treasury. Between May and December, the United States transferred more than $1.7 billion to Iraq and $192 million to the DFI. The United States had the necessary legal authorities to make the transfers quickly.
On August 2, 1990, in compliance with a Presidential Executive Order, the Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued regulations to financial institutions requiring them to freeze Iraqi assets in the United States. More than 30 banks in the United States identified and frozeaccounts with $1.4 billion in Iraqi assets.5 These institutions held assets in accounts that accumulated interest.
In March 2003, the President used authorities, including the enhanced authority in IEEPA, as amended by provisions in the USA PATRIOT Act, to issue a new executive order to confiscate or take ownership of Iraqi assets held by U.S. financial institutions and vest them in the U.S. Treasury. 5In addition, according to OFAC, more than $480 million was frozen in U.S. financial institutions abroad.
U.S. Efforts to Recover the Former Iraqi Regime's Assets Have Had Varying Results The United States Transferred Nearly $1.9 Billion in Vested Assets to Iraq
Page 7 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
According to Treasury and Federal Reserve officials, Treasury instructed the Federal Reserve Bank to release portions of the funds to DOD upon the Office of Management and Budget's approval of DOD's spending plans. As of March 2004, the CPA had spent about $1.67 billion of the $1.9 billion for emergency needs, including salaries for civil servants and pensions, and for ministry operations.
CPA informed us in March 2004 that the U.S. military, in coordination with U.S. law enforcement agencies had seized about $926 million of the regime's assets in Iraq. The U.S. military seized about $894 million in Iraqi bonds, U.S. dollars, euros, and Iraqi dinars, as well as quantities of gold and jewelry. This amount included $750,000 found with Saddam Hussein when he was captured. Department of Homeland Security agents seized an additional $32 million. The CPA is authorized to use these seized funds for humanitarian and reconstruction efforts. As of March 2004, the CPA had used $752 million for reconstruction activities, including projects, ministry operations, and liquefied petroleum gas purchases.
According to Treasury, other countries have frozen about $3.7 billion in Iraqi assets. Treasury officials reported that, as of March 2004, more than 10 countries and the Bank for International Settlements have transferred $751 million to the DFI. Treasury officials noted that the remaining assets have not been transferred to the DFI because some countries do not have the necessary legislation to affect the transfer or are holding about $1 billion to adjudicate claims. U.N. Security Council Resolution 1483 requires the immediate transfer of Iraqi funds identified and frozen in these accounts to the DFI.
To encourage other countries to transfer the funds to Iraq, the Secretary of the Treasury requested that the international community identify and freeze all assets of the former regime. Additionally, Treasury and State officials said that they have engaged in diplomatic efforts to encourage countries to report and transfer the amounts of Iraqi assets that they had frozen. For example, since March 2003, State officials told us that they have sent more than 400 cables to other countries requesting that they transfer funds to the DFI.
According to U.S. officials, Treasury and State continue to leverage the U.S. government's diplomatic relations with finance ministries and central The United States Seized
More Than $900 Million in Iraq Other Countries Have Transferred $751 Million to the DFI
Page 8 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
banks to encourage the transfer of Iraqi assets to the DFI, according to Treasury officials. Some of the remaining frozen funds are located in financial institutions in Iraq's neighboring countries or Europe. Little progress has been made in recovering the former Iraqi regime's hidden assets. Because the former Iraqi regime used a network of front companies, trusts, and cash accounts in the names of the regime family members and associates, it has been difficult to identify how much remains hidden in the international financial system. U.S. government officials have cited estimates ranging from $10 billion to $40 billion in illicit earnings.
According to U.S. government officials, U.S. government asset recovery efforts have focused on exploiting documents in Iraq, interviewing key financial figures, and convincing other countries to cooperate in identifying and freezing illicit funds that have flowed through or still reside in their countries. For example, Department of Homeland Security agents have exploited Central Bank of Iraq records for leads regarding Saddam Hussein's procurement network. Internal Revenue Service criminal investigators have conducted interviews of former finance ministry individuals and exploited financial documents of the regime to obtain leads on the location of targeted assets. The Defense Intelligence Agency provides some of the research and analysis used to identify assets of the former Iraqi regime. In addition, according to Treasury and State officials, they are coordinating efforts to gain the cooperation of other countries. For example, State officials said that U.S. investigators have identified 500 accounts that potentially belonged to the former regime in other countries. State is working through their overseas embassies to get the cooperation of these countries to return the funds to the DFI.
The U.S. government has faced key challenges to recovering the assets of the former Iraqi regime.
First, recovering the former regime's assets was not initially a high priority in the overall U.S. effort in Iraq. As the need for additional resources to rebuild Iraq became apparent, the United States placed a higher priority on recovering the former regime's assets. According to U.S. government officials, recovering the former Iraqi regime's assets became the U.S. government's third priority behind the hunt for weapons of mass destruction and security in September 2003. In addition, Internal Revenue
Little Progress Has Been Made in Recovering Hidden Assets of the Former Iraqi Regime Challenges to Transferring Frozen Assets and Locating the Hidden Assets
Page 9 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
Service agents stated that DOD's post-war plans and priorities did not include protection of financial documents or other information that could have provided leads on the location of the former regime's assets. Second, U.S. expectations for the quick transfer of funds under U.N. Security Council Resolution 1483 may have been overly optimistic given the lack of legal capabilities of some countries to do so. In June 2003, State and Treasury officials said that the U.N. resolution included unique provisions that afforded the United States and the international community with an opportunity to quickly recover Iraqi assets worldwide. The resolution required all U.N. members to freeze without delay assets of the former Iraqi regime and immediately transfer them to the DFI. Many of the member states that had frozen Iraqi government assets in 1991 did not immediately transfer the assets to the DFI.
U.S. officials stated that many countries needed to adopt additional legislation to implement the U.N. requirements and transfer the funds to the DFI. According to U.S. government officials, some U.N. member countries have developed the authorities, institutions, and mechanisms to freeze assets of targeted terrorists, but others had not developed similar mechanisms for targeted regimes. U.S. government officials also stated that some countries did not have the administrative capabilities and financial mechanisms to transfer the frozen assets. U.S. officials did not have a central repository of other countries' laws and regulations related to transferring Iraqi assets. Furthermore, according to U.S. officials, despite the immunity provision included in the U.N. resolution, some countries are delaying transfer of funds until all claims have been settled. Third, the impending transfer of sovereignty to an interim Iraqi government on June 30, 2004, may further complicate U.S. efforts to locate and recover assets of the former regime. It is uncertain whether the new government will allow the United States to continue its hunt for the former regime's assets. The future transitional government has yet to conclude agreements regarding the activities of the multi-national force, which may include the right to interview Iraqi officials and exploit documents. In addition, it is also uncertain whether other countries will transfer their remaining funds to the DFI when the interim government assumes authority over it. Madam Chairwoman and Members of the Subcommittee, this concludes our prepared statement. We will be happy to answer any questions you may have.
Page 10 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
For questions regarding this testimony, please call Joseph Christoff at (202) 512-8979 or Davi M. D'Agostino at (202) 512-5431. Other key contributors to this statement were Thomas Conahan, Lynn Cothern, Philip Farah, Rachel DeMarcus, Ronald Ito, Barbara Keller, Sarah Lynch, Zina Merritt, Tetsuo Miyabara, Marc Molino, and Mark Speight.
Contacts and
Acknowledgments
Page 11 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets Appendix I: Roles of U.S. Entities In Recovering Iraqi Assets Asset location United States Assets $1.92 billion Frozen and transferred $1.67 billion Funds disbursed in Iraq Current status Department of the Treasury Executive Office of the President Coalition Provisional Authority Entity Agency/Office/Subdivision Role Office of Foreign Assets Control Executive Office for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crime Froze assets in 1990, directed financial institutions to transfer these assets to Treasury account in 2003. Leads interagency Iraq Task Force Working Group for Tracking and Recovery of Iraqi Assets (Iraqi Assets Working Group, IAWG).
Office of Management and Budget Approves CPA spending requests of vested funds.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Maintains Treasury's vested account. As directed by Treasury, released the vested
funds to the Department of Defense and the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA). Approves and manages the obligation and expenditure of vested funds.
Coalition Provisional Authority Approves and, with DOD, manages the obligation and expenditure of seized funds.
Asset location
Iraq Assets $926 million Seized $752 million Funds disbursed in Iraq Current status Department of Defense Entity Agency/Office/Subdivision Role
Military identified and seized assets in U.S. dollar, euro, and dinar currency notes;
gold, jewelry, and Iraqi bonds.
Department of Homeland Security Bureau of Immigration and Customs Enforcement
Secret Service
Assisted the military in the identification and seizure of assets. Seized an additional $32 million.
Determined the authenticity of seized assets.
Source: GAO.
Page 12 GAO-04-579T Recovering Iraq's Assets
(320262)
Asset location Other countires Assets $3.7 billion Identified and frozen $751 million Transferred to the Development Fund for Iraqa Current status Department of the Treasury Entity Agency/Office/Subdivision Role
Office of Foreign Assets Control Coordinates with State and Justice on potential asset designations.
International Affairs Tracks the status of assets frozen in and transferred from other countries.
Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs and International Organizations Undertake diplomatic efforts to encourage other governments to implement UN Resolution 1483. Bureau of Intelligence and Research and Regional Bureaus Collect and analyze economic and other information on Iraq and its neighboring countries Department of State U.S. Mission to the United Nations Negotiated consensus on UN Resolution 1483. Submits potential freezing designations to the United Nations. Financial Institutions Identify, freeze, and transfer assets to the Development Fund for Iraq. Coordinates with State on outreach to foreign government officials, including finance ministries. Executive Office for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crime Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs and overseas embassies Undertake diplomatic efforts to encourage other governments to follow up on leads and freeze assets. U.S. Mission to the United Nations Encourages UN members to identify, freeze, and transfer assets. Asset location Global Assets $Unknownb Hidden Iraqi assets ? Current status Department of the Treasury Department of State Internal Revenue Service Criminal Investigation Division Defense Intelligence Agency Department of Defense Department of Homeland Security Entity Agency/Office/Subdivision Role Executive Office for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crime
Reviews documents and interviews individuals connected to Saddam Hussein's finances, front companies, and account transactions; provides leads to embassies and to other governments and financial institutions. Provides research and analysis used to identify assets of the former Iraqi regime.
Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Special Operations and Low-intensity Conflict Work with the IAWG to facilitate activities in Iraq, including providing logistical support to Treasury investigators. Source: GAO.
Coordinates U.S. efforts to locate additional hidden assets.
Identify and track financial assets related to the Central Bank of Iraq. Bureau of Immigration and Customs EnforcementThis is a work of the U.S. government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. It may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without further permission from GAO. However, because this work may contain copyrighted images or other material, permission from the copyright holder may be necessary if you wish to reproduce this material separately.
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Posted by maximpost at 5:50 PM EST
Permalink
Thursday, 18 March 2004

>> PROGRESS REPORT

U.S. Conducts Successful MD Simulation Against NK Missile Attack
The United States, which will start work on a missile defense system late this year, put on a war game for reporters Wednesday (Korea time) during which an enemy nation modeled on North Korea fired six ballistic missiles at the United States, the Washington Post Internet edition reported. During the simulation, the U.S. successfully intercepted all six missiles.
The U.S. Department of Defense, in order to reveal some of the plans for operating procedures behind MD, invited reporters to an air force base in the grasslands of Colorado and simulated the intercepting of missiles launched from an enemy country. The base is responsible for designing a missile defense simulation known as MDWAR and training MD operating crews.
In the simulation, a fictional nation located in the East Sea (Sea of Japan) launched six ballistic missiles at the United States. The Americans responded immediately by launching interceptor missiles, destroying all the enemy missiles in mid-flight. Two enemy missiles were destroyed early after launch.
The tensest moment came when it came time to shoot down two enemy missiles targeting Boise, Idaho and Anchorage, Alaska. The United States had only one spare missile, and in case both interceptors missed, it would bring about an urgent situation in which the Americans would be forced to choose which city they would try to save. Both interceptors hit their targets, however, and an intolerable choice was avoided.
U.S. military officials said that factors like population would be taken into consideration if such a choice came up in real life.
Meanwhile, officials say that one of the goals of the computer simulation is to show the "urgency" involved in missile defense. A ballistic missile launched from North Korea would take about 25~30 minutes to reach the northwest of the United States, and about eight of those minutes are taken up trying to find out the missile targets and computing trajectories for the interceptors.
Moreover, the U.S. military command structure surrounding missile defense is quite complicated, officials added, and during a real-life conflict could produce problems.
(Robert Koehler, englishnews@chosun.com )

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NK Threatens to Expand Nuclear Arsenal
North Korea has again threatened to expand its nuclear arsenal, accusing the United States of making aggressive moves against the communist government in Pyongyang.
The official North Korean news agency said Pyongyang will strengthen what it called its "nuclear deterrent" to protect itself. This comes as the United States and South Korea are preparing for joint annual military exercises that begin Sunday and run through the following week. About 37,000 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea to deter aggression from the North. Pyongyang says the joint exercises are a rehearsal for a U.S. invasion of North Korea, but the U.S. military counters by saying the exercises are defense-oriented.
North Korea often issues threats on the eve of joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States. Pyongyang previously threatened to strengthen its nuclear program after a second round of multi-party talks in Beijing last month ended without a breakthrough.
China announced Tuesday it has circulated a draft plan for advancing the limited progress made at those talks. It did not reveal details of the proposal, except to say it covers the working groups all sides agreed to in Beijing. The Beijing talks ended with a pledge to create working groups that would talk through obstacles and issues not deemed appropriate for the high-level agenda.
VOA News

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>> RUSSIAN FRIENDS...
Higher-tech missiles feared in Iraqi hands
By Bryan Bender, Globe Staff, 3/18/2004
WASHINGTON -- The Pentagon is investigating whether new, more deadly versions of Russian missiles may be in the hands of Iraqi insurgents, possibly enabling them to shoot down US Army helicopters and threaten other aircraft, according to defense officials studying missile components retrieved from recent crash sites and seized in raids.
US military officials thought they were well prepared for the variety of shoulder-fired missiles utilized by Saddam Hussein's forces, mainly missiles manufactured in the Soviet Union during the Cold War. For years American intelligence officials gathered technical information on a variety of portable Russian missiles -- including the SA-7, SA-14, SA-16, and SA-18 -- in order to develop countermeasures, such as electronic jamming equipment and decoy flares.
But missile components and other weapon systems uncovered by US forces in Iraq have fueled suspicions that insurgents may have obtained more advanced weapons, not previously known to US intelligence, that can confuse helicopters' electronic defenses or overcome attempts to send them off course, the officials said.
Nine helicopters have been lost to enemy missiles, rocket-propelled grenades, and small arms fire -- costing the lives of 32 soldiers -- since the US-led invasion last March. Several airplanes flying into Baghdad International Airport have also been hit by missiles, but managed to land safely.
"There is nothing conclusive, but it is a matter of importance," a US defense official said of the investigation, confirmed by other US officials who also declined to be identified, citing security precautions. "There's a constant process of assessing our countermeasures because everyone wants our troops to be safe."
The officials said investigators have been piecing together parts of missiles in an effort to determine why they were not deflected by aircraft jamming equipment, intended to thwart the missiles' computerized tracking systems, or decoy flares, designed to provide an alternative target for heat-seeking missiles.
Specialists in helicopters believe it is highly unlikely that insurgents could have downed nine helicopters without more advanced technology than had been previously in the Iraqi arsenal. But the official added that "we have not found anything that we have conclusively determined has been modified."
Still, concerns about new missile technology played a part in the Army's decision last month to terminate the multibillion-dollar Comanche helicopter program and apply the money to finding new ways to protect the existing helicopter fleet, the officials said. Of particular concern are the helicopters flown by the National Guard and Reserve, which do not have the same level of protection as the active force but are being widely used in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Officials are also probing how advanced technology -- almost certainly developed over the last 10 years in Russia -- might have gotten into the hands of Iraqi insurgents.
In particular, officials are concerned that insurgents may have newer versions of two deadly Russian missiles, the SA-16 Gimlet and the SA-18 Grouse, both portable surface-to-air missiles similar to the US military's Stinger, officials and military analysts said.
The leading theory among some specialists is that Russia may have sold the new technology to other nations, and that Hussein obtained it on the international black market.
"The idea that somehow through a wink and a nod this is showing up in Iraq is not surprising," said Tim Brown, a senior fellow at GlobalSecurity.org, an Alexandria, Va., think tank. "It could be an SA-18 or an SA-16 that [the Russians] sold to someone else and was transhipped to Iraq. It could be a new version smuggled in through the black market."
At the start of the Iraq war, the United States believed Hussein's forces had acquired thousands of SA-7 surface-to-air missiles, an older and less sophisticated version that is visually aimed, as well as an unknown number of subsequent models, such as the SA-14, SA-16, and SA-18. But Pentagon officials were confident all could be thwarted by existing antimissile technology on US helicopters.
Now, with nine helicopters having been downed, senior officials are increasingly worried. In internal discussions, the Army Chief of Staff, General Peter Schoomaker, has repeatedly mentioned the growing threat of Russian-made missiles as a key reason why manufacturing a new helicopter -- the Comanche -- was unwise, officials said.
"What we're seeing on the battlefield is a proliferation of much more sophisticated missiles," Lieutenant General Richard A. Cody, the deputy Army chief of staff, told reporters on Feb. 24 when the service announced it was canceling the $39 billion Comanche project after nearly two decades of development.
In recent months, the Army has taken measures in Iraq to enhance helicopter defenses, such as varying flight patterns and altitudes. But if pilots fly low to avoid missiles such as the SA models, which are designed to strike aircraft at higher altitudes, they become more vulnerable to lower-tech rocket-propelled grenades, which have been responsible for some of the helicopter losses.
According to Loren Thompson, president of the Lexington Institution, an Arlington, Va., think tank that specializes in weapons developments, helicopter and aircraft crews face at least two enduring challenges: the possibility that new weapon systems are available to the enemy that can filter out American countermeasures and the likelihood that the weapons the US spy community already knew were in Iraq performed better than anticipated.
Concluded Thompson: "The pilots have to have some idea of the adversary and how they are likely to be equipped."

? Copyright 2004 Globe Newspaper Company.
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>> SYRIANS MOONING...

Syrian: Antiterrorism cooperation has fallen
WASHINGTON - (AP) -- Syria's ambassador said Wednesday that counterterrorism cooperation with the United States has declined since Congress approved sanctions on his country late last year.
Ambassador Imad Moustapha said the sanctions bill did not diminish Syria's interest in cooperating with the United States, but some U.S. officials ``feel very anxious when Syria cooperates on terrorism because their premise is that Syria is a terrorist country.''
U.S. officials didn't make a decision to reduce cooperation, ''but the communications started to fall down. However, we are trying now to reestablish our cooperation on this,'' he said. Moustapha made his comments during and after a forum on whether Israel also should be subjected to a sanctions bill.

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Report: Saddam's Government Stole $10.1B
By MARY DALRYMPLE
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Report: Saddam's Government Stole $10.1B
WASHINGTON (AP) -
Saddam Hussein's government smuggled oil, added surcharges and collected kickbacks to rake in $10.1 billion in violation of the United Nations' oil-for-food program, congressional investigators said Thursday.
The estimate, much larger than previous calculations, comes as the United Nations considers expanding its probe into the humanitarian program, which allowed Iraq to sell oil for food and medicine. Other oil sales were prohibited under a U.N. embargo imposed after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990.
Investigators from the General Accounting Office told a congressional subcommittee that Iraq collected $5.7 billion by illegally smuggling oil out of the country through several routes. The oil traveled to Syria by pipeline, across the borders of Jordan and Turkey by truck and through the Persian Gulf by ship.
Surcharges levied against oil producers and commissions imposed against commodity suppliers participating in the oil-for-food program fetched another $4.4 billion.
The GAO had previously estimated that Saddam's government had received $6.6 billion in illegal revenues from the program from 1997 through 2002.
The effort to identify and recover Iraqi money hidden worldwide has met with mixed success, GAO investigators told lawmakers on the House Financial Services oversight and investigations subcommittee.
The Treasury Department acted Thursday to freeze the assets of 16 family members related to Saddam and his top advisers. The list includes Saddam's wives Sajida Khayrallah Tilfa and Samira Shahbandar; his daughters Raghad Saddam Hussein al-Tikriti, Rana Saddam Hussein al-Tikriti and Hala Saddam Hussein al-Tikriti; and his son Ali Saddam Hussein al-Tikriti.
The Treasury Department also identified 191 quasi-governmental companies suspected of engaging in illegal commerce and hiding money abroad.
The Treasury Department submitted the information to the United Nations, triggering a resolution that calls on member nations to freeze and transfer the assets held by those individuals and companies.
Juan Zarate, the Treasury Department's deputy assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes, told the House subcommittee that some countries do not have the legal structure or "political will" to recover the money.
In the last year, countries other than the United States have recovered and sent about $750 million to the Development Fund for Iraq. Money in the Development Fund for Iraq has been spent on wheat purchases, electricity and oil infrastructure, equipment for Iraqi security forces, Iraqi civil service salaries and government operations.
About $1.3 billion in cash and valuables have been recovered in Iraq.
The amount of money the former Iraqi regime hid abroad remains unknown, and estimates range from $10 billion to $40 billion.
"One of the conundrums of this effort has been trying to understand and get a hold on the full universe of assets pilfered by the Hussein regime," Zarate said.

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Astronauts Try to Save Hubble Telescope
By MARCIA DUNN
ASSOCIATED PRESS
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) -
They risked their lives for the Hubble Space Telescope and did so gladly. Now, many of the astronauts who worked on Hubble hundreds of miles above Earth are dismayed, bewildered or both by NASA's decision to pull the plug on the mighty observatory.
"I just think it's a huge, huge mistake," says Greg Harbaugh, who performed Hubble repairs during a pair of spacewalks in 1997. "It is probably the greatest instrument or tool for astronomical and astrophysical research since Galileo invented the telescope, and I think it is a tragedy that we would consider not keeping the Hubble alive and operational as long as possible."
Though the decision is not absolute, there appears to be little chance NASA administrator Sean O'Keefe will change his mind about a Hubble servicing mission, deeming it too risky to astronauts in the wake of Columbia.
That would mean a premature death for the 14-year-old observatory whose latest snapshot - revealed last week - showed the deepest-ever view of the universe, a mishmash of galaxies dating almost all the way back to creation.
Tom Akers, part of the spacewalking team that restored Hubble's eyesight in 1993, also favors another mission.
"I definitely think that's an asset that we shouldn't throw away," says Akers, who teaches college math in Missouri. "That's my position and they know it."
NASA has been fending off heavy criticism ever since O'Keefe decided in January to cancel the last servicing, set for 2006.
Last week, at congressional urging, O'Keefe agreed to ask the National Academy of Sciences to study the issue from all perspectives, including using robots to install new cameras or augment battery power.
But he does not expect to reconsider sending up astronauts despite the outcry.
An Internet petition has collected thousands of names, O'Keefe's e-mail system is clogged with complaints, members of Congress are demanding reviews by independent groups, and the chief Columbia accident investigator is urging a public policy debate on the Hubble gains versus shuttle risks.
Even John Glenn has weighed in, telling President Bush's commission on moon and Mars travel that another servicing mission is necessary "to get every year's value out of that thing."
The canceled servicing mission would have been the Hubble's fifth and would have equipped it with two state-of-the-art science instruments already built and worth a combined $176 million, as well as fresh batteries and gyroscopes. The work by spacewalkers would have kept Hubble humming until 2011 or 2012.
Without intervention, Hubble will probably take its last picture in 2007 or 2008. O'Keefe says he does not see how NASA could launch a servicing mission before then without shirking the recommendations of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board.
As an alternative, engineers are trying to figure out how to prolong the telescope's life with robotic help.
NASA is quick to point out that when Hubble was launched, 15 years of service were promised, a goal that will be met next spring. The space telescope has helped scientists gauge the age and size of the universe and confirmed the existence of black holes.
Regardless of Hubble's merit, O'Keefe says he cannot let astronauts fly to the telescope and risk being stuck there if their shuttle is damaged by foam or other launch debris.
There's no way a stranded shuttle crew could get from Hubble to the international space station in an entirely different orbit.
The NASA chief insists his decision is rooted in safety, and he's recruited the agency's chief scientist, John Grunsfeld, a two-time Hubble space repairman, to help defend his decision.
Yet eyebrows were raised given the timing of the announcement: It came two days after President Bush unveiled a plan to complete the space station and retire the shuttle by 2010, and to send astronauts back to the moon by 2020.
Glenn worries the Columbia accident may be making NASA gun-shy.
Harbaugh, now director of the Florida Air Museum, says he felt no more danger flying to Hubble than anywhere else in space. There is little difference, he says, "in risk between launching to Hubble and launching to station and just launching period."
Astronomers would be at a loss if Hubble is abandoned and its powerful replacement, the James Webb Space Telescope, is lost in a rocket explosion or has crippling design flaws. That's why so many would rather wait to decommission Hubble until Webb is launched, now set for 2011.
While NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory and Spitzer Space Telescope see the universe in X-ray and infrared, respectively, Hubble observes visible light and peeks into the ultraviolet and near-infrared. Webb will focus on the infrared and outdo Hubble with a mirror more than double its size.
Astronauts - Hubble repairmen included, who say they would do it again - like to point out that a ship is safe in the harbor, but that's not what ships are built for.
Says Bruce McCandless, who helped deliver Hubble to orbit and now works in industry: "John Paul Jones is also reported to have said, 'Give me a fast ship for I intend to sail in harm's way.' He wasn't going to sit in the harbor, either."
On the Net:
NASA: http://hubble.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Save Hubble Initiative: www.savethehubble.com

---------------------------------------------------

>> POLICY WATCH

Government Warns of Drug Card Scams
By DEVLIN BARRETT
ASSOCIATED PRESS
WASHINGTON (AP) - For many Americans, the government's new Medicare drug discount card will be a way to save money. For a few, it is a way to make money - by scamming seniors.
The much-anticipated Medicare program to offer cards with discounts on prescription drugs won't begin until May, but 11 states already have seen cases in which con artists are targeting Medicare beneficiaries in fraudulent come-ons, officials said Thursday.
"It's so appalling these individuals are willing to create schemes that take advantage ... of a law intended to do so much good," said Leslie Norwalk, deputy administrator at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
Scams so far have involved phone calls or door to door solicitations to ostensibly register people for the new program. Those behind the scams offer to enroll seniors in exchange for their bank information, social security number, or credit card number.
In other instances, the caller already has some of the individual's private health history and tries to collect their banking or Medicare information, which could then be used to file false claims.
People have complained about such scams in Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Maryland, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia and Washington, officials said. Officials in Arkansas have also warned seniors to be on guard against such pitches.
There is no reason to think the scams are connected, but the con artists take a common approach in trying to fool the victims, officials said.
"They will do all sorts of things to try to make the beneficiaries trust them," said Norwalk. "They're eliciting enough information to be able to extract money from the (victim's) account."
Seniors should be on guard against phone or personal solicitations, officials warned. They stressed that Medicare contacts its beneficiaries only by mail.
The real cards will cost no more than $30 a year and offer discounts ranging from 10 to 25 percent on prescription drugs. The cards will eventually be phased out when a broad prescription drug benefit is made available in 2006.
Medicare plans to announce the companies selected to offer the cards in a matter of weeks, and then launch an advertising campaign in May to alert seniors to the benefit.
Norwalk, the administrator, emphasized that Medicare will never phone or knock on a beneficiary's door to enroll them in a program, and will only send mailings about the drug card.
She also cautioned seniors not to give out personal or financial information to people they don't know.
On the Net:
Medicare: http://www.medicare.gov

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Companies Benefit by Shifting Health Costs
By THERESA AGOVINO
ASSOCIATED PRESS
NEW YORK (AP) - Employers who aggressively shift health care costs to their employees expect lower levels of spending increases than the average company, and sharply less than firms without strict policies to make patients better consumers, a new study found.
Companies that have taken actions such as substantially increasing copayments and insurance policies or instituting insurance programs with high deductibles expect their health care costs to rise 7 percent this year.
Overall, companies costs are expected to rise 12 percent. But for companies that haven't been aggressive in cost-shifting, the increase should hit 17 percent, according to a study of by the National Business Group on Health, a nonprofit organization, and Watson Wyatt & Co, a benefits firm.
"As employers are spending more they want employees to act like true consumers," said Ted Chien, global practice director of group benefits for Watson Wyatt. He said that happens when employees have to spend more of their own dollars on health care.
Chien said employers with aggressive programs to contain health spending aren't simply shifting costs to employees. They are also providing employees with tools to help them make more informed decisions, such as offering programs dealing with chronic disease and information on various providers.
Still, Chien said he was suprised by how aggressive some employers were becoming. For example, 18 percent of employers were offering plans with very high deductibles without giving employees any kind of a fund to help pay for some medical costs.
Chien also noted a sharp downturn in companies changing health providers. Last year, 11 percent switched providers, down from 29 percent in 2002.
Chien said it is expensive for employers to switch plans, and often there isn't much difference between the insurers.
The study included 450 employers that provide benefits to more than 8 million employees.

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>> GITMO TROUBLES CONTINUED...

Guantanamo agent investigated
In probe of airman,document handling is again scrutinized
By John Mintz, Washington Post, 3/18/2004
WASHINGTON -- A military investigator who worked on the case of Air Force Senior Airman Ahmad I. Halabi, the Guantanamo Bay prison linguist charged with mishandling classified documents, is himself under investigation for allegedly having classified materials at his home, according to a government document. Last week, Air Force lawyers prosecuting Halabi asked the judge to exclude from the case any mention of the probe of Special Agent Marc Palmosina of the Air Force Office of Special Investigations. Palmosina's alleged misconduct is similar to some of the charges against Halabi.
The documents on compact discs at Palmosina's home did not concern the Halabi case, but instead focused on cargo transport operations, an area to which the agent had been assigned before he was sent to Guantanamo Bay, where the United States is holding more than 600 alleged Al Qaeda and Taliban operatives, the government document said.
Palmosina, who has been removed from work on the Halabi case, could not be reached for comment, and the Air Force declined to confirm whether he is being investigated or to provide the name of his attorney.
The Syrian-born Halabi, 25, who has been in detention at a California military base since last summer, is accused of illegally possessing letters from Guantanamo Bay detainees and other documents about the jail. He is also accused of espionage involving an alleged plan, apparently never carried out, to pass information to someone in Syria.
Halabi's lawyers have said he was in touch with the Syrian Embassy to secure a visa to travel there for his wedding.
Three other members of the military at Guantanamo Bay face breach of security allegations. Army Captain James Yee, the former Muslim chaplain there, is charged with mishandling classified material from the prison, adultery with a female officer there, and downloading pornographic material onto his laptop computer.
Army Reserve Colonel Jack Farr, who served in the Guantanamo Bay unit that interrogates detainees, was charged in November with mishandling classified material and lying to investigators after he was found with classified papers in his bags.
And Ahmed F. Mehalba, a Muslim linguist who worked as a prison contractor, faces charges in a federal court of lying to investigators and mishandling classified data after secret files about the prison were allegedly found on his computer when he landed at Boston's Logan International Airport on a flight from Egypt.

? Copyright 2004 Globe Newspaper Company.
---------------------------------------------------------------
WAR ON TERRORISM
Ex-detainee: I was a spy for the CIA
A former Guantanamo detainee, whose family has links to al Qaeda, claims he was a spy for the CIA.
BY DeNEEN L. BROWN
Washington Post Service
TORONTO - Abdurahman Khadr traced an invisible X in the dark air, the mark of an outcast in his own family, a man rejected by his friends.
'The Arabs have X'd me out. It's like, `You're done. . . . We don't want you around.' My family hates me now and my sister sent an e-mail saying I was a [expletive] liar,'' Khadr said in an interview last week.
Five months after being released from custody at the U.S. naval detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, Khadr, 21, has publicly claimed he was a CIA informant and provided U.S. authorities with detailed information about Osama bin Laden and the al Qaeda terrorist network.
TV DOCUMENTARY
Khadr's story was first broadcast last week in a two-part Canadian television documentary, in which he described the life of his family in an al Qaeda compound in Afghanistan, in close quarters with Osama bin Laden.
Khadr, whose father and brothers also are linked to al Qaeda, provided a rare insider's view of bin Laden's operations and daily routine.
A CIA spokesman had no comment about Khadr, and a spokesman for the Canadian intelligence service, CSIS, said, ``We don't publicly comment on who is of interest to us.''
Since the broadcast, Khadr said, he hasn't slept much and has been living in hotels in Toronto. He is fatalistic, he said, about what might happen to him.
''If they have someone outside right now who will shoot me, nothing will change by me worrying about it now,'' he said, seated in a Pakistani restaurant.
STRANGE STORY
Khadr's story is complicated, more so because he now says he has lied previously. Much of his tale could not be independently verified, largely because of intelligence agencies' unwillingness to corroborate the information.
U.S. and Canadian intelligence have long connected Khadr's family with international terrorism.
His father, Ahmed Said Khadr, was born in Egypt and immigrated to Canada in 1977, and later became an al Qaeda leader. In 1996, Pakistani authorities arrested him in connection with a bombing at the Egyptian Embassy in Islamabad.
After the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks, Ahmed Khadr was named on a U.S. international terrorist wanted list. He was reported killed on Oct. 2, 2003, in a gun battle with Pakistani troops near the Afghan border.
TRAINING CAMPS
Khadr has three brothers and two sisters. He said he and his brothers spent eight years in Afghan training camps. His eldest brother, Abdullah, is in hiding, said Khadr, who is the next oldest. The third brother, Omar, was arrested in Afghanistan in July 2002 and is held at Guantanamo, accused of throwing a grenade that killed a U.S. medic.
Karim, 14, wounded in the same gun battle that killed his father, is in custody in a Pakistani military hospital, Khadr said.
''The Khadrs are pretty infamous,'' said John Thompson, director of the MacKenzie Institute, a Toronto-based nonprofit organization that studies organized violence. ``There was intelligence before 9/11 that Khadr was a friend of bin Laden and was inside the al Qaeda command structure.''
Abdurahman Khadr was born in the Persian Gulf emirate of Bahrain and grew up in Toronto and Afghanistan, straddling the cultures of North America and the Muslim world. Although he has only an eighth-grade education, he said, he speaks five languages, including Canadian-accented English.
Khadr said his father moved the family in 1996 to an Afghan compound where Khadr first met bin Laden, whom he said he recognized from a magazine photograph. Bin Laden, Khadr recalled, despised American products and rejected many modern conveniences, including electricity.
`VERY SERIOUS'
''He is very serious and very concerned about the cause,'' Khadr said. ``He said America had destroyed our culture, our economy and destroyed our everyday living. We will do anything to make them leave Saudi Arabia.''
Although bin Laden was younger than many leaders in the compound, he was respected because he was rich, Khadr said. ``If he didn't have money, nobody would give a [expletive] about him.''
Khadr said he was captured in November 2001 by Afghanistan's Northern Alliance, a militia that cooperated with the United States against al Qaeda and the country's Taliban government.
He paid a $10,000 bribe to one of his captors to be freed but was held for more than two months before being transferred to U.S. custody, he said. The Americans asked questions about his father and brothers.
'They said, `We know your father has links. You cooperate and we will let you go,' '' he said. Khadr said he told them anything they wanted to hear.
''I told them my brother was a trainer at a training camp,'' Khadr said.
``That rumor was brought up by me when the Americans first got me. To boost my credibility with the CIA, I told them he was a trainer. But that was a lie. That was a mistake. I'm very sorry now. I said a bunch of other lies. I told them other detainees were al Qaeda.''
SPY AT GUANTANAMO
Khadr said the Americans sent him to Guantanamo to infiltrate the prison population, spy on prisoners and identify those who had spent time at training camps.
''I wasn't useful in the past because of my bad record with al Qaeda,'' he said. ``They thought I had ability in the future with all my languages.''
Khadr said CIA agents gave him a $5,000 bonus and a promise of $3,000 a month. They asked him to sign a document acknowledging his work, he said, but he did not keep a copy.
U.S. guards treated Guantanamo prisoners well, he said, but he was unhappy with the isolation and demanded his release.
``After three months in general population, I couldn't take it. I said I was going to tell the Canadians the next time they came to see my brother, if they did not let me out.''
SENT TO BOSNIA
In October, CIA officers sent him to Bosnia to spy on the Muslim community there, he said, but he still disliked working alone. By late November, he said, his CIA contacts agreed when he asked to return to Canada.
Since appearing on television, Khadr isn't anonymous in Toronto.
''I like attention,'' he said. ``I won't deny it. Sometimes it can cost you your life, but I like it.''

-----------------------------------------------

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Report criticizes Army Corps of Engineers
By MATTHEW DALY
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER
WASHINGTON -- A new report says an irrigation effort in Arkansas and a flood-control pump in Mississippi are among 29 wasteful projects of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
The report by the National Wildlife Federation and Taxpayers for Common Sense also singles out projects to deepen the Columbia River and transport salmon around four Snake River dams in the Pacific Northwest.
The Army Corps risks damaging the environment for little tangible economic benefit, says the report.
Corps spokesman Dave Hewitt said the projects are recommended only after they have been molded to represent a sound investment of federal, state and local dollars.
The report calls for Congress to reform the Army Corps, saying that despite efforts by three presidents to curtail projects by withholding funding, a lack of accountability has allowed the Corps to continue wasteful spending virtually unchecked.
In the face of "exploding deficits, Congress continues to spend like drunken sailors on gold-plated pork-barrel water projects," said Steve Ellis, vice president of Taxpayers for Common Sense.
The 29 projects would cost $12 billion and threaten more than 640,000 acres of wetlands and shoreline areas; about 6,500 miles of rivers and coastlines; eight national parks, seashores and wildlife refuges; and the Great Lakes, the report said.
The report calls special attention to the $319 million Grand Prairie Irrigation Project in eastern Arkansas, which seeks to build a pumping station to deliver river water to the heart of the country's largest rice-producing region.
The Bush administration declined to fund the pumping station project in the current 2004 budget or in the proposed 2005 spending plan, but Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., succeeded in securing $3.2 million late last year for the start of construction.
Terry Horton, executive director of the Arkansas Wildlife Federation, said the group will seek an injunction to stop work.
The corps is preparing its environmental impact statement on the Yazoo Backwater Pump project in Mississippi, which supporters say would protect more than 1,200 homes from flooding and improve farming for soybeans and other crops along the Big Sunflower River.
But critics say the $191 million project would destroy up to 200,000 acres of protected wetlands in the Mississippi Delta, as well as harm valuable bottom land hardwood.


Associated Press Writer David Hammer in Little Rock, Ark., contributed to this report.


On the Net:

Taxpayers for Common Sense: http://www.taxpayers.net

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers: http://www.usace.army.mil/

----------------------------------------------------------------
Feud may hinder Madrid bombing investigation
Date: March 19 2004
Spanish security sources believe bad blood with Morocco may hamper the investigation into the Moroccan terrorist cell that appears to be behind last week's train bombings in Spain that killed 201 people and injured more than 1750.
Spanish police have arrested three Moroccans thought to be linked to Islamic terrorist groups and have identified five more who are presumed perpetrators of the bombings.
On Wednesday they widened the hunt for a further 20 Moroccans thought by Morocco to have entered Spain illegally after a string of suicide bomb attacks in Casablanca last May.
But arguments between the two governments over the island of Perejil, fishing rights and illegal immigration had badly damaged co-ordination on known shared threats, the newspaper El Mundo quoted security sources as saying.
Relations between the two countries became further embittered during the tenure of the defeated prime minister, Jose Maria Aznar. The prime minister-elect, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, made sure that one of his first remarks was a pledge to improve Spain's relations with Morocco. He also said the Government would implement additional security measures and reiterated his intention to pull Spanish troops out of Iraq.
It has emerged that the explosive used in the 10 bombs in Madrid was goma-2 ECO dynamite made last February at Union of Spanish Explosives of Paramo de Masa in Burgos, northern Spain. Police are now investigating mines and quarries to discover how about 100 kilograms of the explosive disappeared.
The security services suspect the attacks were organised by the Moroccan Combat Islamic Group, thought to have been founded in Peshawar, Pakistan, in 1993 to which the main suspect to be arrested, Jamal Zougam, has links.
Some members of Mr Aznar's People's Party are saying the Madrid attacks were not necessarily reprisals for Spain's support for the war in Iraq but based on Islam's historic claim on Spain.
The three Moroccans and two Indians arrested in connection with the bombings were due to appear in court yesterday.
The US said on Wednesday that Spain had mishandled early information about the bombings when it played down evidence that Islamic extremists were behind the plot. Mr Zapatero, who opposed the war in Iraq, was trailing in the polls before the blasts, which Mr Aznar instantly blamed on Basque separatists.
The Telegraph, London; The New York Times

Posted by maximpost at 10:38 PM EST
Updated: Thursday, 18 March 2004 11:05 PM EST
Permalink

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Whopper: John Kerry
Stop lying about your record!
By Timothy Noah
Posted Monday, March 15, 2004, at 3:15 PM PT

"I'm pretty tough on Castro, because I think he's running one of the last vestiges of a Stalinist secret police government in the world,'' Kerry told WPLG-ABC 10 reporter Michael Putney in an interview to be aired at 11:30 this morning.

Then, reaching back eight years to one of the more significant efforts to toughen sanctions on the communist island, Kerry volunteered: "And I voted for the Helms-Burton legislation to be tough on companies that deal with him."

--Peter Wallsten, "Kerry Stances on Cuba Open to Attack," in the March 14 Miami Herald

It seemed the correct answer in a year in which Democratic strategists think they can make a play for at least a portion of the important Cuban-American vote--as they did in 1996 when more than three in 10 backed President Clinton's reelection after he signed the sanctions measure written by Sen. Jesse Helms and Rep. Dan Burton.

There is only one problem: Kerry voted against it.

--Ibid.

(Thanks to reader John Giorgis.)

Discussion. Kerry aides told Wallsten that Kerry voted against the final bill because he disagreed with some technicalities added at the last minute, but that he voted for an earlier version of the bill. But every piece of legislation that comes before the Senate is subjected to a succession of votes, many of them tactical in nature. The only vote that counts is final passage. If it were otherwise, any legislator could claim to have voted for or against almost any bill, depending on the audience, and there would be no accountability at all.

There is no dishonor in saying, "I supported that bill initially, but some items were added to it that made it impossible for me to continue that support." Instead, Kerry lied, as is his wont.
----------------------------------------
Whopper: George Soros
Oh, that comparison between Bush and the Nazis.
By Timothy Noah
Posted Saturday, Feb. 7, 2004, at 7:12 PM PT

George Soros: I have also been accused of comparing Bush to a Nazi. And I did not do it. I would not do it, exactly because I have lived under a Nazi regime. So I know the difference. But how come that I'm accused of that?

Q: Who accused you of that?

Soros: The Republican National Commission [sic.], or whatever, and a number of newspaper articles. And I--you know, I think I really--I'm upset about being accused of that. And I'm upset that I have to defend myself against this kind of accusation.

--Interview with billionaire philanthropist George Soros, who has spent more than $15 million to oppose President Bush's re-election, on CNN's Wolf Blitzer Reports, Jan. 12, 2004.

"Soros believes that a 'supremacist ideology' guides this White House. He hears echoes in its rhetoric of his childhood in occupied Hungary. 'When I hear Bush say, "You're either with us or against us," it reminds me of the Germans.' It conjures up memories, he said, of Nazi slogans on the walls, Der Feind Hort mit ('The enemy is listening'). 'My experiences under Nazi and Soviet rule have sensitized me,' he said in a soft Hungarian accent."

--Laura Blumenfeld,"Soros' Deep Pockets vs. Bush," in the Washington Post, Nov. 11, 2003.

(Thanks to James Taranto's "Best of the Web Today" blog at OpinionJournal.com.)

Got a whopper? Send it to chatterbox@slate.com. To be considered, an entry must be an unambiguously false statement paired with an unambiguous refutation, and both must be derived from some appropriately reliable public source. Preference will be given to newspapers and other documents that Chatterbox can link to online.

------------------------------------------------------

Local Motives
Why the FCC should scrap its absurd rules for satellite radio.
By Thomas Hazlett
Posted Tuesday, March 16, 2004, at 3:01 PM PT


Early this month, in a seemingly innocuous move, XM Radio offered 15 new satellite radio channels featuring local programming--traffic updates and weather reports. But because FCC rules require XM (and its rival, Sirius) to exclusively provide national programming, each of these local channels is available all across the country. An XM subscriber in Oregon, for example, can learn about a foggy night on the coast of Florida or the traffic en route to O'Hare, just by flipping the dial.

The launch of the new channels has kicked off a highly charged debate about whether the local content is legal. Traditional broadcasters claim it's not, because the programming targets particular regions. XM and Sirius (which plans similar channels) claim it is, because the programming airs nationwide. So far, the FCC seems to be siding with XM, but the regulatory scuffle points up the pickle that satellite radio is currently in: In order to get permission to exist, XM and Sirius had to swear off local content. But in order to survive, they need to find a legal way to deliver it to subscribers.

Satellite radio broadcasting was first authorized in 1997, when two licenses were issued to the companies now known as XM and Sirius. Their applications had taken seven years for the Federal Communications Commission to approve, mainly because the National Association of Broadcasters charged that the new service threatened "traditional American values of community cohesion and local identity." (It also threatened revenues. But at the time, the FCC found that traditional radio stations drew 80 percent of their income from local advertising, which suggested that national competition would not be too damaging to existing stations.) The irony, of course, was that just as lobbyists for traditional broadcasters were making arguments about the integrity of regional identity, local stations were airing more and more national programming, and companies like Infinity and Clear Channel were launching their ambitious industry consolidation. But the NAB pressure worked both to delay satellite rivals and to get the FCC to craft license rules that seemed to ensure that satellite service would air only national shows.

XM and Sirius launched service in late 2001 and early 2002, respectively, and they now serve approximately 1.8 million subscribers. Each system features about 60 channels of music and another 40 of national news, sports, public affairs, and comedy for about $10 to $13 per month. Equipment and installation cost an additional $120-$300. Analysts tout projections of 15 million customers by 2006. But success is by no means certain. Bankruptcy rumors plagued XM in 2002, and Sirius' bondholders were awarded a huge chunk of equity to stave off bankruptcy in 2003.

And so long as satellite radio omits community news, weather, traffic, and sports, its march to financial success will be uphill. Currently, XM and Sirius subscribers can easily flip back and forth between satellite programming and AM and FM bands. Airing local content would help bring listeners directly to satellite audio when they turn the ignition--no need to scan the AM dial for traffic updates--which would make subscribers feel they were getting more for their money and heighten their loyalty to the service. It would also--as the FCC foresaw--allow satellite radio to tap into local advertising, a potentially fat new revenue stream.

Airing local programs nationwide is a good start, but it's a remarkably inefficient solution because it soaks up precious channels--and satellite operators are allotted only so much bandwidth (12.5 MHz per operator). There are, after all, about 269 local radio markets. Squeezing an extra 15 or 20 channels onto the available bandwidth is one thing, but providing more slots for local news becomes very expensive very fast.

What makes these inefficiencies particularly grating, though, is that existing technology and infrastructure would allow scores of cities to enjoy multiple full-time local news channels via satellite. This smarter way to distribute local content on satellite radio would employ the repeater stations already in use. Repeaters are land-based relays that, as the name implies, pull in satellite feeds and (using the identical frequency) retransmit them. This boosts reception for area subscribers who would otherwise hit "dead zones"--tunnels, valleys, office building canyons--where signals fade. But they could also allow programs to be customized, market to market. When boosting a satellite signal, a repeater station could insert, say, a 10-minute local news bulletin into a broadcast airing on one of XM's national news channels. And it could easily supplement the range of national channels already on offer with several local ones.

The NAB attacks repeaters--even when they're used just to boost signal strength--as "a crutch for a technology that is not up to the task of providing the seamless, mobile coverage promised by proponents." And the trade press has been littered with such ominous headlines as: "NAB Accuses XM of Local Programming Plot." Capitol Hill has been happy to play enforcer. Former House Commerce Committee chairman Billy Tauzin, R-La., admonished the FCC that regulators must be vigilant in policing rules "intended to prevent companies like XM from offering localized programming like news, weather and traffic in direct competition with small radio broadcasters."

But in this era of industry consolidation, relatively speaking, there are fewer small, independent broadcasters left to protect. And the FCC's regulations, no matter what their original intent, now serve mainly to spare incumbent broadcasters--tiny or huge--the effort and expense of competing with their satellite rivals.

The notion that traditional broadcasters deliver idiosyncratic menus closely tailored to local audiences is a quaint one. Nationally syndicated content has become the order of the radio day, and satellite programming is, if anything, less cookie-cutter than its earth-bound analogs. That this debate has been framed along such outmoded lines illustrates how increasingly strained the concept of "local" has become. Regulators lacking spatial skills are charting geographic divides when they should be mapping communities of interest. Satellite radio caters to niche preferences in music or politics by connecting dispersed audiences. The opera buff in Tuscaloosa, left for deaf by "local" radio, connects with her community when tuning to satellite radio's 100 channels. To characterize satellite programs as uniform because they are nationally distributed is absurd. To then mandate that uniformity is worse.

It's only natural that sky-bound radio competitors want to offer that additional dimension--local news, weather, traffic, and sports--and they should be allowed to use repeaters to do it. Their financial success may depend on it. The earth-bound stations certainly hope that it does. That's why they are pressing so hard to see that they can't.


Thomas Hazlett is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. He formerly served as chief economist of the Federal Communications Commission.


---------------------------------------------------------
Socialists
The zombies who won the Spanish election.
By Chris Suellentrop
Posted Thursday, March 18, 2004, at 2:26 PM PT



Despite what you may have heard, socialism isn't dead. It's undead, a zombie that still roams the earth uncertain what to do with itself since its demise. It was sighted again this week, somewhere on the Iberian Peninsula, though some observers dismissed the reports. Sure, a group named the Socialist Workers Party won the elections in Spain, and a Socialist named Jos? Luis Rodr?guez Zapatero is slated to become the country's next prime minister. But it says something about the state of small-"s" socialism--in addition to the state of the world--that conservatives are attacking Zapatero for his response to terrorism, not his attitude toward capitalism.

Granted, the war in Iraq and the war against al-Qaida are the whole reason the world has been watching Spain so closely for the past week. But there's another reason for the conservative silence about Zapatero's economics: The socialist debate over what to do about capitalism--and the proletariat, and the theory of surplus value, and the ownership of the means of production--is largely over in Europe. If the old libel against American liberals is that they're socialists, the new European libel against socialists is that they're liberals--classical ones. Here are some of the economic promises on which Zapatero's Socialist Workers Party campaigned: lowering the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 30 percent, cutting income taxes, and reducing the value-added tax. Oh, and they're going to balance the budget and control inflation. The man expected to be the Socialist finance minister, Miguel Sebastian, is a U.S.-educated economist with a Ph.D. from the University of Minnesota. He's promising to put his faith in the Invisible Hand. "There will be a strict separation between politics and business," he told the Financial Times. "We will be a market-friendly government." These are socialists?

They're what's left of them. The 43-year-old Zapatero took the helm of the Socialist Workers Party in 2000, in the wake of a disastrous election for the party. That year, the Socialists allied themselves with the Communists, known as the United Left, but for the first time since Franco's death in 1975, the Socialists and the United Left together did not win a majority of Spanish votes. In the wake of that defeat, Zapatero pledged to follow a "Nueva Via," or New Way, rhetorically aligning himself with the "New Democrats" of Bill Clinton, the "Third Way" of Tony Blair, and the "New Middle" of Gerhard Schr?der. He would navigate between market fundamentalism and state socialism. The clear message: The era of big socialism is over.

To American ears, that sounds ridiculous. Of course it's over. But to the European left it's not so simple. For example, it wasn't until 1995 that Tony Blair convinced the British Labor Party to change Clause Four of its constitution, which had bound the party to pursue "the common ownership of the means of production, distribution, and exchange." In other words, to abolish capitalism. To old Labor loyalists, Clause Four was like the Human Life Amendment in the Republican Party platform, which would amend the U.S. Constitution to ban abortion. They knew their party wouldn't do anything about it if it took power, but they liked having it there as a statement of values. In One Hundred Years of Socialism, the historian Donald Sassoon notes that over the course of the 1960s, '70s, and '80s, European socialists went from wanting to get rid of capitalism to declaring "that they were the ideal managers of it."

But Zapatero, Blair, and Schr?der are taking this a step further: They're dropping much of the socialist project of economic interventionism. The vestige of socialism they cling to is the commitment to a strong social safety net that can balance the inequities of unbridled capitalism. Schr?der may be going the furthest: He's trying to cut Germany's welfare state in order to save it. (Americans might be amused that some Germans are outraged because they now pay $12.40 each time they visit the doctor.) Zapatero's shift toward market economics is understandable: He has to live up to the stellar performance of his predecessor. As the Wall Street Journal Europe noted this week, during Jos? Maria Aznar's eight years as Spain's prime minister, unemployment dropped from 20 percent to 11 percent, and the country created 40 percent of the European Union's new jobs, 4.2 million of them. During the Socialists' 20-year reign from 1976 to 1996, the country's job growth netted out at zero.

Of course, European socialists have long coexisted with capitalism, as the historian Sassoon has argued. Although they long believed that capitalism would wither away, socialist parties in Western Europe have contented themselves with the short-run goal of making the current economic system a more just one. As Paul Berman once put it the New York Times, socialism "has modestly shriveled into what it always should have been: an ethical orientation, not an economic how-to guide."


Chris Suellentrop is Slate's deputy Washington bureau chief. You can e-mail him at suellentrop@slate.com.

Posted by maximpost at 6:20 PM EST
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>> WMD? WHERE?

washingtonpost.com
Nuclear Security Training Lacking
Plants Eliminated or Reduced Drills Designed to Repel Attacks, U.S. Says
Associated Press
Thursday, March 18, 2004; Page A29
Nuclear weapons plants have eliminated or reduced training for guards responsible for repelling terrorist attacks, leaving the government unable to guarantee the plants can be adequately defended, the Energy Department's internal watchdog said.
One plant has reduced training hours by 40 percent, and some plants conduct tactical training only in classrooms, according to a report from the department's inspector general.
Some contractors fear that injuries among guards during training exercises could reduce bonus payments from the government, the report said. Guards typically receive 320 hours of training.
Only one of 10 plants surveyed, Hanford, Wash., trains guards in the basic use of a shotgun, according to the report. None of the plants teaches guards how to rappel down buildings or cliffs because of concerns that guards might be injured. The report noted that one guard died rappelling in 1995.
"Inconsistent training methods may increase the risk that the department's protective forces will not be able to safely respond to security incidents or will use excessive levels of force," said the report prepared by Inspector General Gregory H. Friedman's office and released Tuesday.
The National Nuclear Security Administration, which protects nuclear plants, acknowledged in a letter responding to the inspector general that training for guards has suffered because of overtime demands at weapons plants. It promised to review training to make sure it is adequate.
The criticisms were the latest leveled against the government's ability to protect nuclear facilities, long considered prime targets for espionage and terrorist attacks.
The inspector general complained in January that security guards who repelled four simulated terrorist attacks at the Y-12 weapons plant in Tennessee had been tipped in advance. The plant processes parts for nuclear weapons and maintains vast supplies of bomb-grade uranium.
That earlier report also determined that at least two guards defending the mock attacks had been allowed to look at computer simulations a day before the attacks.
The newest report said some of the plants are not adequately training guards how to use handcuffs, fight hand-to-hand or defend against terrorists in vehicles.
"Defense tactics training should be as realistic as possible," the report said. "Anything less may rob the trainee of the exposure to the levels of force, panic, and confusion that are usually present during an actual attack and increase the possibility of an inappropriate response in high stress situations."
At some weapons plants, for example, instructors used wooden mock-ups or removed windshields from the vehicles of mock terrorists for safety. But experts said that prevents guards from learning how glass affects gunfire or the visibility of a target inside.
The report said all 10 weapons plants surveyed have reduced training in at least two important areas. The plants were the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California; the Nevada Test Site near Nellis Air Force Base; the Oak Ridge Complex in Tennessee; the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site near Denver; the Hanford site; Sandia National Laboratories in California; the Pantex Plant in Amarillo, Tex.; the Savannah River Site in South Carolina; the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico; and the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory.

? 2004 The Washington Post Company

------------------------------------------------------
"Monster Island"
New York's Plum Island is a level-4 bioresearch facility. What exactly is going on there?
Alan Cabal


I make it a rule to never ascribe malicious intent to any occurrence that can be reasonably attributed to human stupidity. There is no such thing as a completely fail-safe system; at least, none that human ingenuity can devise. Likewise, I acknowledge the role of coincidence in the course of human events. Synchronicity does not necessarily imply a designing will. Shit happens, as they say.
The tragic loss of the space shuttle Columbia is a classic illustration of both of these principles: The shuttle is as close to a fail-safe system as our species is capable of. No one at NASA wants to lose an astronaut to an accident. The fact that it broke up over Palestine, TX, while carrying an Israeli war hero is simply a coincidence. It was not brought down by a stone-throwing child, an errant kite or a suicide bomber. There are those who see the Hand of God in coincidences such as this. I am not one of those people.
That said, I do tend to agree with the ancient Greeks that hubris leads inevitably to a correction of some sort. As hubris has become as ubiquitous as obesity in America lately, I try not to concern myself too much with it. Inasmuch as I can, I keep my concerns local.
And locally, there is no more terrifying example of hubris than the Plum Island Animal Disease Research Center.
Located just two miles off the tip of Long Island and six miles from the Connecticut coastline, Plum Island is home to a Bio-Safety Level 4 (BSL-4) research facility. The only comparable government facilities in the country are the United States Army laboratory at Fort Detrick, MD, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta. Plum Island is specifically engaged in the study of zoonotic diseases. Zoonotic diseases are diseases that can be transmitted from animals to humans, like West Nile, like Lyme disease. Like Ebola.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture established the research facility there after acquiring the 840-acre island from the military at the end of World War II. The initial charter from Congress mandated the study of animal diseases, particularly foot-and-mouth disease, with an eye toward eradicating these maladies from the nation's livestock. It seemed an ideal location for such an endeavor: prevailing winds, after all, blow out to sea.
In 1954, the research took a more aggressive turn, with scientists looking to cook up ways to inflict damage on Soviet livestock. The Cuban government alleges that in the 1960s and 70s, bioweapons developed at Plum were deployed against Cuban agriculture, targeting pork, tobacco and sugar cane. Back in 1999, Floyd P. Horn, administrator of the Agriculture Research Service, persuaded President Clinton to include Plum Island in his expanded bioterrorism program based on the possibility of a biological attack on the nation's agricultural base. Last year the administration of the island's research facilities was transferred from USDA to the Department of Homeland Security.
The 200-odd employees do not live on the island; they commute from their homes in Connecticut and Long Island. The facility is only accessible by government ferry, and local sailors who have strayed too close have reported being warned off in no uncertain terms by armed military personnel. The diseases being researched do not live exclusively under glass--there are quite a number of infected live animals for study there. Some of these diseases have an incubation period extending for days.
Which means that it is entirely possible for a researcher to be unknowingly infected on a Friday and then spend the weekend cheerfully spreading some hideous plague from the Hamptons to Tribeca. The government claims that there has only been one outbreak on the island--foot-and-mouth in 1978--which they contained by killing all the livestock. They further maintain that there has never been a leak to the mainland. Apparently the first appearance of what we now call Lyme disease a mere 13 miles northeast of the facility falls under the category of coincidence, as does the mysterious and still unexplained appearance of West Nile virus in Long Island and New York City.
Coincidences, it seems, abound at Plum.
Until 1991, all of the employees were federal. During 1991 and '92, the workforce bifurcated, with many of the jobs being turned over to the private sector, which naturally led to a simmering resentment in the ranks. On August 13, 2002, the resentment came to a full boil and a strike was called: 76 members of the International Union of Operating Engineers walked out at midnight after negotiations on wages and benefits broke down. The union members, employed by a government subcontractor, LB&B Associates, headquartered in Columbia, MD, were responsible for essential support services such as decontamination, waste-water treatment, keeping the generators in working order and other maintenance and safety-oriented occupations. For the duration of the strike, temps were brought in to replace them, the sentinels and technicians of the island's infrastructure.
By the end of that month, the FBI had been called to the island to investigate allegations of sabotage. It seems that the water pressure on the island fell precipitously, disabling decontamination facilities and the necropsy rooms used to examine dead animals. The union blamed the problem on the inexperienced temporary replacement workers, suggesting that they had not been adequately screened and lacked the training to properly maintain the essential daily activity of the island, let alone handle an emergency. Jacob Bunch, a spokesman for LB&B, refused to comment on the FBI investigation and responded to a New York Times reporter's query about the replacement workers by stating that "In terms of training, I will tell you that people are well trained or they wouldn't be there. I am not going to get into how they are trained." He flatly refused to discuss the issue of security clearances.
The strike and the FBI investigation drew unwanted attention to the island. Local residents in Connecticut and Long Island have long harbored suspicions about the nature of the research being done on "Mystery Island," as some call it. One local politician was quoted as saying, "I have gotten calls from constituents asking if it is safe. People worry about Plum Island under routine circumstances, so you can expect that they worry more when circumstances are as unusual as these."
Press requests to visit the island were denied by both the FBI and the USDA, but one union official claimed to have received a frantic call from one of the replacement workers. As he put it, "They were sleeping on cots, working 12- hour shifts and not being able to make calls off the island. He described their condition as being held captive." The chief operating officer of LB&B, Ed Brandon, scoffed at the report, saying that the worker in question had already left the island and that everything was under control and running smoothly.
As a result of the FBI investigation, one of the strikers, Mark J. DePonte, pleaded guilty to tampering with government property. Coincidentally, in October a 600-gallon container of liquid nitrogen somehow managed to tumble off the rear of one of the island's ferries. Shortly thereafter, it was revealed that at least one of the replacement workers had an arrest record.
During the fifth month of the strike, a three-hour power outage renewed public interest in the island. It certainly piqued my interest. On that day, I could not help but fixate on Stephen King's The Stand and Larry Underwood's trek through a sea of corpses in the Lincoln Tunnel, clawing his way out to Jersey. I found the failure of all three of the island's backup generators particularly provocative. Jovial corporate gasbag Ed Brandon had nothing to say about the inability of the replacement workers to operate the generators after five months on the job, and his erstwhile associate Jacob Bunch was equally dumbstruck.
I packed up the car, scored some weed, picked up my girlfriend and headed to the Jersey Shore, just to be on the safe side. Coincidence and stupidity will kill you just as dead as conspiracy and evil genius, if the wind is right, so we holed up in a motel in Ocean City and followed the story from there.
The only reason the incident went public at all was that one of the replacement workers basically flipped a gasket and called Hillary Clinton's office, spilling the beans on the power failure to one of her staffers. The worker stated that, "The reason I am coming forward is because what I have seen at the center is really out of hand and something needs to be done about it."
And just like that, the possibility of disaster was in the open.
Without power, the air filtration systems are inoperable. Without power, decontamination procedures break down. Without power, the seals in the pressurized airlock doors start to deflate. According to one report, workers were desperately sealing the doors with duct tape.
My girlfriend and I stayed in Ocean City for a few days, walking the deserted frozen boardwalk together and monitoring the news for any signs of an incipient human die-off in New York. The most frightening book I have ever read is Laurie Garrett's The Coming Plague, a comprehensive overview of emerging rain-forest viruses and antibiotic-resistant bacteria. I was so badly rattled that I actually put the book down about three-quarters of the way through. Sitting down there at the Jersey Shore, watching the whitecaps roll in through the desolate frozen darkness on the longest night of the year, it was all too easy to imagine Manhattan in the throes of a deadly epidemic triggered by some half-wit scab's inability to figure out the basics of generator maintenance and operation.
I took an inventory of the worst zoonotic plagues I could think of: Nipah virus, anthrax, Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis, Hanta virus--
Hanta, I recalled, is transmitted in rodent feces. There was an outbreak in the Four Corners area in the southwest, back in the early 90s. The vector? Pinola nuts contaminated by rat shit.
I reflected on the mother of all plagues, the incomparable Ebola virus, the deadliest strain of which, Ebola Zaire, has a 90 percent kill rate. Transmission is ridiculously easy: The victim starts sneezing at a certain point early in the infection, and the sneeze contains aerosolized droplets of infected blood. Ba-da-bing, ba-da-bang, ba-da-boom--you've got it. In about 10 days, you bleed out and die as your cardio-vascular system... Well, your cardio-vascular system just sort of melts. Ebola Zaire would burn through this city like a fire in a cardboard factory.
Up in New Haven, CT, in 1994, a worker at Yale University's Arbovirus Laboratory became infected with Sabia virus, went home, then took a little jaunt to Boston, where it became apparent to him that his symptoms were serious. More recently, in February of this year, a Fort Detrick researcher inadvertently stuck herself with a needle containing one of the three known Ebola variants. None of the reports of the incident specified which strain, but one can only assume it was the relatively benign Ebola Reston, as she was permitted to go home and gather some "necessities" before being placed in quarantine the next day. She was released from quarantine on March 3.
Sometimes you get lucky.
The research at Plum Island has taken some very alarming turns. In 2001, the New York Times revealed the existence of the Defense Department's "Project Jefferson," an effort to develop a vaccine-resistant form of anthrax. The Pentagon responded to the story by asserting that the project would be completed and the results classified.
Last year, a St. Louis University virologist by the name of Mark Buller revealed in a characteristically dry academic report that he was tinkering with a more lethal form of mousepox, a relative of smallpox, and intended to extend this work to cowpox, which can infect humans. Buller's intent is to devise countermeasures against making pox viruses more lethal, but the central conundrum of bioweaponry defense research is that, by necessity, it entails offensive bioweaponry research.
For his part, Buller is aware of the problem. "When you have thrown a lot of money at it," he told Mother Jones magazine, "people start to think very hard about what is possible, losing sight of what is practical."
Problem is, this research doesn't take place in a vacuum. These researchers are academics--they publish. As the hackers have been telling us for three decades, information wants to be free. So, creating increasingly deadly bioweapons in order to determine how they can be thwarted generates an endless spiral of increasingly potent plagues that must inevitably succumb to that most familiar and unforgiving of universal principles, Murphy's Law.
A lot of people in the know are sounding alarms about this. Richard Ebright, lab director at the Waksman Institute of Microbiology at Rutgers University, is quoted by Michael Scherer in this month's Mother Jones as saying, "That is work that creates a new vulnerability for the United States and the world. It's like the National Institute of Health was funding a research and development arm of Al Qaeda." Scherer also points out that the government is going full speed ahead with this sort of thing, doubling the Pentagon budget for chemical/biological warfare and pouring up to $10 billion into bioweaponry projects alone.
We are knee-deep in a new arms race, far more terrifying than anything the nukes race had to offer. Accidents happened with our nuclear launch protocols during the Cold War--we came close, far too close, on several occasions--and it's far easier to accidentally release a tick or a mosquito into the environment, or scratch oneself with an infected needle, than it is to inadvertently launch a missile.
Plum Island is 136 miles from the city, as the crow flies. If that crow should happen to land there briefly, perhaps to snack on a tempting bit of carrion, there is a realistic chance that the crow might then become patient zero, carrying back with it some unwholesome and unwelcome souvenir. Or consider the disgruntled, overworked generator mechanic suffering under the burden of a difficult divorce compounded by a bad reaction to Zoloft who goes postal--on a whole new level. Or maybe a series of unfortunate, coincidental and entirely benign failures will pile up like SUVs on black ice.
The list of possibilities for disaster goes on and on. I prefer not to be in close proximity to people who insist on flouting Murphy's Law, especially when they're toying around with what we euphemistically refer to these days as Weapons of Mass Destruction. It's like drinking in a cop bar.
There's been a lot of blather and hoo-hah in the news around here lately that New Yorkers are unprepared for another major disaster along the lines of the Sept. 11 attacks. Very few businesses have established any kind of emergency preparedness drills or protocols, and the average citizen seems to be living in some hideously banal postmodern fog of confusion and denial. A friend of mine up in Inwood bought an ultralight kayak, figuring to haul it down to the estuary there and paddle away to Jersey if and when the bodies start piling up.
Even if nothing ever happens, it's a great toy in the summer months.
For more on Plum Island, see Jim Knipfel's review of Michael Christopher Carroll's Lab 257: The Disturbing Story of the Government's Secret Plum Island Germ Laboratory, p. 40.
Volume 17, Issue 11
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>> KERRY ENDORSEMENTS WATCH, 1-KIM JONG-IL, 2...
Former Malaysian Leader Endorses Kerry
Thu Mar 18,11:56 AM ET
PUTRAJAYA, Malaysia - Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad endorsed Democratic contender John Kerry (news - web sites) in the U.S. presidential race Thursday, saying he would keep the world safer than President Bush (news - web sites).
"I think Kerry would be much more willing to listen to the voices of people and of the rest of the world," Mahathir, who retired in October after 22 years in power, told The Associated Press in an interview.
"But in the U.S., the Jewish lobby is very strong, and any American who wants to become president cannot change the policy toward Palestine radically," he said.
Mahathir, who was one of the most outspoken leaders in the Islamic world, also said the March 11 train bombings in Spain demonstrated that the Iraqi war has aggravated international terrorism and raised hostility toward Washington and its allies.

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Abolishing Congress
A modest proposal.



O.K., I have almost made it through my second year as a citizen of this splendid republic. I think I know the ropes, now, and am au fait with all the essentials of being a Yankee Doodle Dandy. I live in a quiet suburb, in a detached house with a Stars and Stripes hanging proudly by the door. I decorate my garden with lights at Christmas, and do not recognize Boxing Day. (Nor Guy Fawkes Night, Shrove Tuesday, or Whitsun.) I vote conscientiously, according to some rather simple rules I have worked out: against any issue of any bond, against any person I know to belong, or suspect of belonging, to any public-employee union, against any member of any party that is not Republican or obviously conservative, etc. I understand the ground-rule double and know the difference between a sinker and a slider. I own two fine handguns, which I practice with at the town range when opportunity permits. I am the proud father of two American kids, both of whom can recite the Pledge of Allegiance. Each of my two ordinary American family cars could accommodate an ordinary English family car in its boot, which I know to call the "trunk." I refer to an aubergine as an "eggplant," courgettes as "zucchini," and biscuits as "cookies"; I call a cock a "rooster," a purse a "pocketbook," and a tap a "faucet."* Afflicted with any bodily ailment or injury I consult an attorney as well as, and in some cases before, seeing a doctor. I save diligently so that my kids can go to universities where they will be taught to hate their ancestors (at least the white ones) and accord proper "dignity" and "respect" to people who prefer small molluscs as sex partners. I...

Er, wait a minute, I am trending negative there. Suffice it to say that I consider myself thoroughly Americanized. In some respects, in fact, I may have gone too far: I have read "Snow-Bound" and "The Courtship of Miles Standish" all the way through, and am the only person you ever heard of that can sing the second verse of the national anthem.

There is only one thing I don't quite understand about my new country: What the hell use is the U.S. Congress?

Now, I know, of course, what the Congress is supposed to be for. Article I, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution spells it out. "To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defense and general Welfare of the United States... etc., etc., etc." The problem is, Congress either isn't doing the things it's supposed to do, or is doing them so excruciatingly badly it would be better they were not done at all. Take a look.

"To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water."

I confess I am not sure about the Letters of Marque and Reprisal -- possibly the assembled Senators and Representatives granted a few while I was busy providing for the day that was passing over me; but when was the last time they plucked up the courage to declare War? (Love those capitalized substantives!) Before I was born, that's when, and I am no spring chicken. Oh, we have fought plenty of wars since then, but Congress never declared any. Probably they felt that would be a bit more responsibility than they could handle. After all, if Congress were to declare War, then the ladies and gentlemen who comprise Congress would be collectively responsible for the outcome of the war, wouldn't they? Eeeeek! Best leave it to the Executive.

"To establish an uniform Rule of Naturalization..."

In other words, to set some clear standards for who should, and who should not, become a citizen. How archaic! In this breezy modern world of globalization and open borders, all those smelly old prejudices about foreigners (nativism! racism! anti-immigrant!) have been swept away long since. All you have to do to become a citizen is just get here... then wait for the next presidential amnesty. What's Congress got to do with it?

"To define and punish Piracies and Felonies committed on the High Seas, and Offenses against the Law of Nations."

So, let's see: If a rogue foreign nation were to force down one of our planes over international waters, strip it of all its equipment and fittings, and impound the crew, then Congress is supposed to punish that nation? As they say in Beijing: Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

Come to think of it, look at that very first responsibility of the U.S. Congress:

"To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises..."

Here the Congress has been not merely active, but a darn sight too active. The federal tax code currently contains 55,000 pages, and is expanding at a rate of 50 pages a day. Does anyone actually understand all that verbiage? No, of course not. The federal tax code is not there to be understood. It is there to provide breaks and relief and handouts to every group of 20 citizens who can squawk loud enough to get a congressperson's attention. It is, in short, a joke. A flat tax or a consumption tax would make far more sense, in both equity and efficiency; but then congresspersons would not be able to spend 100 percent of their time being wined and dined by the Aardvark Breeders Association of America and Black Lesbian Rock-Climbers for Peace. They would have to occupy themselves with stuff like declaring War or controlling the nation's borders. Where would be the fun in that? Where would be the profit?

Article I, Section 8 doesn't list all of Congress's responsibilities. Check out Article III, Section 2, for example, which contains this little nugget:

"In all Cases affecting Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, and those in which a State shall be Party, the supreme Court shall have original Jurisdiction. In all the other Cases before mentioned, the supreme Court shall have appellate Jurisdiction, both as to Law and Fact, with such Exceptions, and under such Regulations as the Congress shall make."

(My italics.) So in a Case not "affecting Ambassadors" etc. -- let's say, oh, a case in which some citizens have chosen to dispute the ancient and customary definition of marriage -- the Supreme Court has jurisdiction only if the Congress has not declared that particular Case an Exception under the aforementioned Article, and if Congress has made explicit Regulations declaring that the Court does indeed have such jurisdiction. Hmmm. So this issue I have been reading so much about, of renegade federal judges legislating from the bench, is really not an issue at all, since Congress could just forbid them to take the relevant Cases! Does anyone in Congress know this? Why don't they act on it? See above under "declaration of War."

It is my pride and honor to be a citizen of the same state as Judge Gideon Tucker, the man who said, back in 1866, that: "No man's life, liberty or property is safe while the Legislature is in session." I suppose he was talking about the New York State legislature, in which case he was not at all mistaken; but his words apply equally well, in fact a fortiori, to the U.S. Congress and those who make their living there. The mystery is, that 138 years after Judge Tucker enunciated this obvious truth, we still put up with this expensive, extravagant, purposeless nuisance.

Hold on there, Derb, I hear you murmuring. Aren't you going a bit too far here? After all, Congress does make laws, you know. And we do need laws, don't we?

We certainly do. However, you should entertain the possibility that we already have all the laws we need, and that the republic would probably get along just fine if no new laws were passed for a few years. Twenty years ago we had several hundred less federal laws than we have now. I suppose that in some ways we were worse off in 1984; but things weren't bad.

And just try looking closely at the laws the Congress actually passes. Let's take the best-publicized legislative success of the Clinton administration, the passing of the North American Free Trade Agreement by both houses of Congress in 1993. Has it actually done us any good? I have been trying to find out, and believe me, it ain't easy. It is clear, at any rate, that it hasn't done Mexico any good; wages are lower in Mexico now, by comparison with U.S. wages, than they were in 1994! Yet this was a big selling point for the Agreement: lift up Mexico, and we'll have no illegal-immigration problem. Sorry, that didn't work.

Let's try another one: the No Child Left Behind Act. This may be the stupidest piece of legislation ever to crawl down from Capitol Hill. In effect, it legislates that the earth is flat. Dan Seligman exposed the whole silly thing in a recent Forbes article:

And yet the law's main problem continues to be unrepresented in the news stories. The problem is that some students are not smart enough to do well on tests.

The law also states, insanely, that by 2014 all American students must be 'proficient' in reading and math. Any school at which this doesn't happen will suffer severe penalties, up to and including a takeover by the state. Yet the shape of the bell curve guarantees that most schools will fail. No amount of accountability, incentives and superduper teaching can possibly get all the kids in any sizable school up to 100% proficiency by 2014. The act supported by all those hardheaded businessmen is utterly utopian.

Et cetera, et cetera, et read-it-and-weep cetera.

What else has Congress done for us recently? The Defense of Marriage Act? Everyone understands that this is a waste of paper. The matter it was supposed to resolve will be decided by the courts, or by a constitutional amendment. The law is, like the body that passed it, irrelevant. This year's Medicaid bill? Uh-huh. Any year's budget resolution? Oh, right.
Congress? Abolish it! I have been on the premises. If you cleared out all the time-servers, cranks, bores, boors, freaks, fools, paid agents of foreign powers, and front men for the trail lawyers, public-employee unions, fruit growers, oil companies, and Mideast royal families, you could turn the Capitol building into a very fine suite of racketball courts and indoor shooting ranges, with enough space left over for some bowling lanes and perhaps even a decent-sized swimming pool. What are we waiting for? All the governing of our country is being done by judges and federal bureaucrats anyway. For what, exactly, do we need Congress?

* * *
* A key difference between British and American English is that the latter was, at some point in the 18th or 19th century, stripped of any word that might conceivably be taken to refer to any embarrassing body part, or act of intimacy. I grew up in England saying "behind the house," but I have now trained myself to say "back of...," like a good American. The "rocks" my children throw at anything available can are the same size as the "stones" I used to throw when I was their age -- but "stones" is used in the Bible to refer to male gonads. (Which is also why I now give my weight as "180 pounds" instead of "13 stone.") For "tap" (though spelled "tup"), see Othello I.i. One of the principal landmarks in my hometown was an inn called The Cock -- I used to ride a bus that had that destination proudly displayed on the front..., and so on. I am fine with all this bowdlerization, have got quite used to it, and in fact, given the state of our popular culture, would welcome a return of the honest American prudery that brought it about.

http://www.nationalreview.com/derbyshire/derbyshire200403180921.asp



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While Republicans were sleeping
By Dan Haley
Denver Post Editorial Board
Where have all the Republicans gone?
I'm not talking about all of the would-be candidates who scattered like bugs in the days after Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell announced he wouldn't seek re-election - after months of his campaign staff assuring us he would.
I'm looking for those dyed-in-the-wool conservatives who once kept government out of our lives and federal spending in check.
With a $1 trillion deficit looming, social programs ballooning and amnesty awaiting illegals, national Democrats have co-opted the Republicans' mojo.
For weeks, Democratic presidential candidates criss-crossed the country, beating their chests about slashing the deficit and giving the middle class a tax break. They ripped a page from the old GOP playbook as they ripped the no-tax-but-still-spend president.
And guilty Republicans didn't say a word.
Meanwhile, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, who rarely met a spending bill he didn't like in 18 years of Senate work - unless, of course, it involved defense or intelligence - is suddenly the picture of fiscal sanity.
If President Bush loses the election in November, it won't be because of the war in Iraq. It will be over WMDs: White, Moderate, Disenfranchised voters. They thought they elected the second coming of Ronald Reagan in 2000 but instead ended up with a less crusty version of Lyndon Johnson with a hole in his pocket.
If Kerry continues to talk like a moderate, he just may find the WMDs in his corner.
The first President Bush lost his re-election bid for one primary reason: He disenfranchised his conservative base and allowed a surly Texas billionaire with a can-do attitude to siphon off precious votes of moderates and conservatives.
Not wanting to repeat the sins of his father, it seemed George W. was on track to placate the far right of his party. He pushed funding for faith-based initiatives at the beginning of his term and abandoned most stem-cell research because of right-to-life concerns. He later even rained on the gay-wedding parade, after originally calling it a state matter.
But now he seems to be pandering to the left, too. How else to explain the $18 million boost to the National Endowment of the Arts budget? The guy who once said baseball was his favorite cultural experience wants to boost funding for the same folks who brought us Andres Serrano's "Piss Christ" - a photo of a crucifix submerged in a jar of urine.
Those artsy folks aren't going to vote for Bush even if he submerses his own mother in that jar.
President Bush needs to start pandering to the great masses in the middle. If he truly hopes to avoid his father's fate, he'll have to convince more than a few WMDs that he hasn't lost touch with reality.
Humor writer Dave Barry said more than a decade ago that Democrats tend to be the nicer people but they have the management skills of celery. He said he would be reluctant to trust them with a Cuisinart, much less the economy.
My, how times have changed.
When former Congressman Bob Schaffer announced he was running for Campbell's seat, he pledged to bring fiscal sanity back to Washington through "responsible federal spending." With a Republican president and GOP-controlled Congress, that already should be a given and the least of his worries.
Meanwhile, in Colorado, Republican lawmakers aren't spending money - because there isn't any - and instead are dreaming up new ways for the government to interfere in our private lives and businesses, such as worrying about where bookstores place "racy" magazines. It's all in the name of an undeclared culture war, where morality isn't taught by words and examples, but rather legislated.
Barry Goldwater must be rolling over in his grave.
Republicans are dangerously close to losing some of the control in Washington that it took decades to earn. To retain it, they need to return to their roots: Smaller government, less spending, less intrusion.
It may not be sexy, but it works.
Dan Haley is a member of The Post's editorial board.


All contents Copyright 2004 The Denver Post or other copyright holders. All rights reserved.
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ON THE RECORD

A Clear Choice
John Kerry "speaks as if only those who openly oppose America's objectives have a chance of earning his respect."
BY DICK CHENEY
Thursday, March 18, 2004 12:01 a.m. EST
(Editor's note: Vice President Cheney delivered this speech yesterday at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Museum in Simi Valley, Calif.)
Last fall, some people with short memories were asking why on earth California would want to put an actor in the governor's office. The question brought to mind images of 1966, and all the great events that were set in motion by the election of Gov. Ronald Reagan. From his first day in Sacramento to his last day in Washington, Ronald Reagan showed a certain kind of leadership. He had confidence in himself, and even deeper confidence in the United States and our place among nations. His principles were the product of a good heart, a sturdy Midwestern character, and years of disciplined preparation for the work that history gave him. He had a basic awareness of good and evil that made him a champion of human freedom, and the greatest foe of the greatest tyranny of his time. The Cold War ended as it did, not by chance, not by some inevitable progression of events: It ended because Ronald Reagan was president of the United States.
After the fall of Soviet communism, some observers confidently assumed that America would never again face such determined enemies, or an aggressive ideology, or the prospect of catastrophic violence. But standing here in 2004, we can see clearly how a new enemy was organizing and gathering strength over a period of years. And the struggle we are in today, against terrorist enemies intending violence on a massive scale, requires the same qualities of leadership that saw our nation to victory in the Cold War. We must build and maintain military strength capable of operating in different theaters of action with decisive force. We must not only have that power, but be willing to use it when required to defend our freedom and our security.
We must support those around the world who are taking risks to advance freedom, justice, and democracy, just as President Reagan did. American policy must be clear and consistent in its purposes. And American leaders--above all, the commander in chief--must be confident in our nation's cause, and unwavering until the danger to our people is fully and finally removed.
The attacks of September 11, 2001, signaled the arrival of an entirely different era. We suffered massive civilian casualties on our own soil. We awakened to dangers even more lethal--the possibility that terrorists could gain chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons from outlaw regimes, and turn those weapons against the United States and our friends. We came to understand that for all the destruction and grief we saw that day, September 11 gave only the merest glimpse of the threat that international terrorism poses to this and other nations. If terrorists ever do acquire weapons of mass destruction--on their own or with help from a terror regime--they will use those weapons without the slightest constraint of reason or morality. Instead of losing thousands of lives, we might lose tens or even hundreds of thousands of lives in a single day of horror. Remembering what we saw on the morning of 9/11, and knowing the nature of these enemies, we have as clear a responsibility as could ever fall to government: We must do everything in our power to protect our people from terrorist attack, and to keep terrorists from ever acquiring weapons of mass destruction.
This great and urgent responsibility has required a shift in national security policy. For many years prior to 9/11, we treated terror attacks against Americans as isolated incidents, and answered--if at all--on an ad hoc basis, and never in a systematic way. Even after an attack inside our own country--the 1993 bombing at the World Trade Center, in New York--there was a tendency to treat terrorist incidents as individual criminal acts, to be handled primarily through law enforcement. The man who perpetrated that attack in New York was tracked down, arrested, convicted and sent off to serve a 240-year sentence. Yet behind that one man was a growing network with operatives inside and outside the United States, waging war against our country.
For us, that war started on 9/11. For them, it started years before. After the World Trade Center attack in 1993 came the murders at the Saudi Arabia National Guard Training Center in Riyadh, in 1995; the simultaneous bombings of American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, in 1998; the attack on the USS Cole, in 2000. In 1996, Khalid Shaykh Muhammad--the mastermind of 9/11--first proposed to Osama bin Laden that they use hijacked airliners to attack targets in the U.S. During this period, thousands of terrorists were trained at al Qaeda camps in Afghanistan. And we have seen the work of terrorists in many attacks since 9/11--in Riyadh, Casablanca, Istanbul, Mombasa, Bali, Jakarta, Najaf, Baghdad and, most recently, Madrid.
Against this kind of determined, organized, ruthless enemy, America requires a new strategy--not merely to prosecute a series of crimes, but to fight and win a global campaign against the terror network. Our strategy has several key elements. We have strengthened our defenses here at home, organizing the government to protect the homeland. But a good defense is not enough. The terrorist enemy holds no territory, defends no population, is unconstrained by rules of warfare, and respects no law of morality. Such an enemy cannot be deterred, contained, appeased or negotiated with. It can only be destroyed--and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the business at hand.
We are dismantling the financial networks that have funded terror; we are going after the terrorists themselves wherever they plot and plan. Of those known to be directly involved in organizing the attacks of 9/11, most are now in custody or confirmed dead. The leadership of al Qaeda has sustained heavy losses, and they will sustain more.
America is also working closely with intelligence services all over the globe. The best intelligence is necessary--not just to win the war on terror, but also to stop the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. So we have enhanced our intelligence capabilities, in order to trace dangerous weapons activity. We have organized a proliferation security initiative, to interdict lethal materials and technologies in transit. We are aggressively pursuing another dangerous source of proliferation: black-market operatives who sell equipment and expertise related to weapons of mass destruction. The world recently learned of the network led by A.Q. Khan, the former head of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program. Khan and his associates sold nuclear technology and know-how to outlaw regimes around the world, including Iran and North Korea. Thanks to the tireless work of intelligence officers from the United States, the U.K., Pakistan, and other nations, the Khan network is now being dismantled piece by piece.
And we are applying the Bush doctrine: Any person or government that supports, protects, or harbors terrorists is complicit in the murder of the innocent, and will be held to account.
The first to see this application were the Taliban, who ruled Afghanistan by violence while turning that country into a training camp for terrorists. America and our coalition took down the regime in a matter of weeks because of our superior technology, the unmatched skill of our armed forces, and, above all, because we came not as conquerors but as liberators. The Taliban are gone from the scene. The terrorist camps are closed. And our coalition's work there continues--confronting terrorist remnants, training a new Afghan army, and providing security as the new government takes shape. Under President Karzai's leadership, and with a new constitution, the Afghan people are reclaiming their own country and building a nation that is secure, independent, and free.
In Iraq, we took another essential step in the war on terror. Before using force, we tried every possible option to address the threat from Saddam Hussein. Despite 12 years of diplomacy, more than a dozen U.N. Security Council resolutions, hundreds of U.N. weapons inspectors, thousands of flights to enforce the no-fly zones, and even strikes against military targets in Iraq--Saddam Hussein refused to comply with the terms of the 1991 Gulf War cease-fire. All of these measures failed. In October of 2002, the United States Congress voted overwhelmingly to authorize the use of force in Iraq. The next month, the U.N. Security Council passed a unanimous resolution finding Iraq in material breach of its obligations, and vowing serious consequences in the event Saddam Hussein did not fully and immediately comply. When Saddam failed even then to comply, President Bush gave an ultimatum to the dictator--to leave Iraq or be forcibly removed from power.
That ultimatum came one year ago today--twelve months in which Saddam went from palace, to bunker, to spider hole, to jail. A year ago, he was the all-powerful dictator of Iraq, controlling the lives and the future of almost 25 million people. Today, the people of Iraq know that the dictator and his sons will never torment them again. And we can be certain that they will never again threaten Iraq's neighbors or the United States of America.
From the beginning, America has sought--and received--international support for our operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. In the war on terror, we will always seek cooperation from our allies around the world. But as the president has made very clear, there is a difference between leading a coalition of many nations and submitting to the objections of a few. The United States will never seek a permission slip to defend the security of our country.
We still have work to do in Iraq, and we will see it through. Our forces are conducting swift, precision raids against the terrorists and regime holdouts who still remain. The thugs and assassins in Iraq are desperately trying to shake our will. Just this morning, they conducted a murderous attack on a hotel in Baghdad. Their goal is to prevent the rise of a democracy--but they will fail. Just last week, the Iraqi Governing Council approved a new fundamental law, an essential step toward building a free constitutional democracy in the heart of the Middle East. This great work is part of a forward strategy of freedom that we are pursuing throughout the greater Middle East. By helping nations to build the institutions of freedom, and turning the energies of men and women away from violence, we not only make that region more peaceful, we add to the security of our own region.
The recent bombing in Spain may well be evidence of how fearful the terrorists are of a free and democratic Iraq. But if the murderers of Madrid intended to undermine the transition to democracy in Iraq, they will ultimately fail. Our determination is unshakable. We will stand with the people of Iraq as they build a government based on democracy, tolerance and freedom.
Our steady course has not escaped the attention of the leaders in other countries. Three months ago, after initiating talks with America and Britain, and five days after the capture of Saddam Hussein, the leader of Libya voluntarily committed to disclose and dismantle all of his weapons of mass destruction programs. As we meet today, the dismantling of those programs is underway. I do not believe that Col. Gadhafi just happened to make this very wise decision after many years of pursuing secretive, intensive efforts to develop the world's most dangerous weapons. He was responding to the new realities of the world. Leaders elsewhere are learning that weapons of mass destruction do not bring influence, or prestige, or security--they only invite isolation, and carry other costs. In the post-9/11 world, the United States and our allies will not live at the mercy of terrorists or regimes that could arm them with chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons. By whatever means are necessary--whether diplomatic or military--we will act to protect the lives and security of the American people.
These past three years, as our country experienced war and national emergency, I have watched our commander in chief make the decisions and set the strategy. I have seen a man who is calm and deliberate--comfortable with responsibility--consistent in his objectives and resolute in his actions. These times have tested the character of our nation, and they have tested the character of our nation's leader. When he makes a commitment, there is no doubt he will follow through. As a result, America's friends know they can trust--and America's enemies know they can fear--the decisive leadership of President George W. Bush.
The president's conduct in leading America through a time of unprecedented danger--his ability to make decisions and stand by them--is a measure that must be applied to the candidate who now opposes him in the election of 2004.
In one of Sen. Kerry's recent observations about foreign policy, he informed his listeners that his ideas have gained strong support, at least among unnamed foreigners he's been spending time with. Sen. Kerry said that he has met with foreign leaders, and I quote, "who can't go out and say this publicly, but boy they look at you and say, 'You've got to win this, you've got to beat this guy, we need a new policy,' things like that."
A few days ago in Pennsylvania, a voter asked Sen. Kerry directly who these foreign leaders are. Sen. Kerry said, "That's none of your business." But it is our business when a candidate for president claims the political endorsement of foreign leaders. At the very least, we have a right to know what he is saying to foreign leaders that makes them so supportive of his candidacy. American voters are the ones charged with determining the outcome of this election--not unnamed foreign leaders.
Sen. Kerry's voting record on national security raises some important questions all by itself. Let's begin with the matter of how Iraq and Saddam Hussein should have been dealt with. Sen. Kerry was in the minority of senators who voted against the Persian Gulf War in 1991. At the time, he expressed the view that our international coalition consisted of "shadow battlefield allies who barely carry a burden." Last year, as we prepared to liberate Iraq, he recalled the Persian Gulf coalition a little differently. He said it was a "strong coalition," and a model to be followed.
Six years after the Gulf War, in 1997, Saddam Hussein was still defying the terms of the cease-fire. And as President Bill Clinton considered military action against Iraq, he found a true believer in John Kerry. The senator from Massachusetts said, "Should the resolve of our allies wane, the United States must not lose its resolve to take action." He further warned that if Saddam Hussein were not held to account for violation of U.N. resolutions, some future conflict would have " greater consequence." In 1998, Sen. Kerry indicated his support for regime change, with ground troops if necessary. And, of course, when Congress voted in October of 2002, Sen. Kerry voted to authorize military action if Saddam refused to comply with U.N. demands.
A neutral observer, looking at these elements of Sen. Kerry's record, would assume that Sen. Kerry supported military action against Saddam Hussein. The senator himself now tells us otherwise. In January he was asked on TV if he was, "one of the antiwar candidates." He replied, "I am." He now says he was voting only to "threaten the use of force," not actually to use force.
Even if we set aside these inconsistencies and changing rationales, at least this much is clear: Had the decision belonged to Sen. Kerry, Saddam Hussein would still be in power, today, in Iraq. In fact, Saddam Hussein would almost certainly still be in control of Kuwait.
Sen. Kerry speaks often about the need for international cooperation, and has vowed to usher in a "golden age of American diplomacy." He is fond of mentioning that some countries did not support America's actions in Iraq. Yet of the many nations that have joined our coalition--allies and friends of the United States--Sen. Kerry speaks with open contempt. Great Britain, Australia, Italy, Spain, Poland and more than 20 other nations have contributed and sacrificed for the freedom of the Iraqi people. Sen. Kerry calls these countries, quote, "window dressing." They are, in his words, "a coalition of the coerced and the bribed."
Many questions come to mind, but the first is this: How would Sen. Kerry describe Great Britain--coerced, or bribed? Or Italy--which recently lost 19 citizens, killed by terrorists in Najaf--was Italy's contribution just window dressing? If such dismissive terms are the vernacular of the golden age of diplomacy Sen. Kerry promises, we are left to wonder which nations would care to join any future coalition. He speaks as if only those who openly oppose America's objectives have a chance of earning his respect. Sen. Kerry's characterization of our good allies is ungrateful to nations that have withstood danger, hardship, and insult for standing with America in the cause of freedom.
Sen. Kerry has also had a few things to say about support for our troops now on the ground in Iraq. Among other criticisms, he has asserted that those troops are not receiving the materiel support they need. Just this morning, he again gave the example of body armor, which he said our administration failed to supply. May I remind the senator that last November, at the president's request, Congress passed an $87 billion supplemental appropriation. This legislation was essential to our ongoing operations in Iraq and Afghanistan--providing funding for body armor and other vital equipment; hazard pay; health benefits; ammunition; fuel, and spare parts for our military. The legislation passed overwhelmingly, with a vote in the Senate of 87-12. Sen. Kerry voted "no." I note that yesterday, attempting to clarify the matter, Sen. Kerry said, quote, "I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it." It's a true fact.
On national security, the senator has shown at least one measure of consistency. Over the years, he has repeatedly voted against weapons systems for the military. He voted against the Apache helicopter, against the Tomahawk cruise missile, against even the Bradley Fighting Vehicle. He has also been a reliable vote against military pay increases--opposing them no fewer than 12 times.
Many of these very weapons systems have been used by our forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and are proving to be valuable assets in the war on terror. In his defense, of course, Sen. Kerry has questioned whether the war on terror is really a war at all. Recently he said, and I quote, "I don't want to use that terminology." In his view, opposing terrorism is far less of a military operation and far more of an intelligence-gathering, law enforcement operation. As we have seen, however, that approach was tried before, and proved entirely inadequate to protecting the American people from the terrorists who are quite certain they are at war with us--and are comfortable using that terminology.
I leave it for Sen. Kerry to explain, or explain away, his votes and his statements about the war on terror, our cause in Iraq, the allies who serve with us and the needs of our military. Whatever the explanation, whatever nuances he might fault us for neglecting, it is not an impressive record for someone who aspires to become commander in chief in this time of testing for our country. In his years in Washington, Sen. Kerry has been one vote of a hundred in the United States Senate--and fortunately on matters of national security, he was very often in the minority. But the presidency is an entirely different proposition. The president always casts the deciding vote. And the senator from Massachusetts has given us ample doubts about his judgment and the attitude he brings to bear on vital issues of national security.
The American people will have a clear choice in the election of 2004, at least as clear as any since the election of 1984. In more than three years as president, George W. Bush has built a national security record of his own. America has come to know the president after one of the worst days in our history. He saw America through tragedy. He has kept the nation's enemies in desperate flight, and under his leadership, our country has once again led the armies of liberation, freeing 50 million souls from tyranny, and making our nation and the world more secure.
All Americans, regardless of political party, can be proud of what our nation has achieved in this historic time, when so many depended on us, and all the world was watching. And I have been very proud to work with a president who--like other presidents we have known--has shown, in his own conduct, the optimism, and strength, and decency of the great nation he serves.

Mr. Cheney is vice president of the United States.
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Don't Get LOST
The White House toys with signing a very Kerry treaty.



In the wake of international terrorism's most-successful strategic attack since September 11, 2001, the differences between Sen. John Kerry and President Bush about how the war on terror should be waged have become as clear as, well, the differences between the outgoing Spanish premier and his successor.

To be sure, even before last Thursday's murderous explosions in Madrid, Senator Kerry and his surrogates were denouncing the war in Iraq on the grounds that President Bush failed to get the U.N.'s permission for it -- and then was unable to turn the governance of the country post-Saddam over to the so-called "international community." This theme has, however, received mantra-like repetition by the Democratic candidate and his echo chamber ever since the terrorists took down Spain's government.

The good news is that the Bush administration has finally launched a powerful counterattack. Just about every senior national-security official from President Bush on down has suddenly been made available to explain the logic of removing Saddam Hussein from power as an indispensable part of the war on terror. They and key legislators (like Sen. Jon Kyl of Arizona, chairman of the Senate Republican Policy Committee) have at last gone on offense in response to the ceaseless, direct, and indirect attacks on the Bush team's integrity as it made the case for draining the "swamp" that was Saddam's terrorist-sponsoring, WMD-wielding Iraq.

Perhaps most importantly, President Bush and his advocates have directly challenged Senator Kerry, et.al., with respect to what may prove to be the most important foreign-policy issue of the 2004 campaign: John Kerry's worldview that U.S. freedom of action around the world can safely -- and, indeed, as a practical matter must -- be subordinated to the U.N.'s superior judgment. In a powerful example of the assault now being inflicted on the Kerry record and candidacy, Vice President Cheney declared yesterday at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library: "The United States will never seek a permission slip to defend the security of our country."

The bad news is that the Bush administration risks grievously blurring where it stands on the appropriate, limited role of the United Nations in determining our security and other interests with its advocacy of a treaty that President Reagan properly rejected 22 years ago. As was noted in this space on February 26, the administration's declared support for the Law of the Sea Treaty (LOST) caused it to be approved unanimously by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee -- even though this accord would constitute the most egregious transfer of American sovereignty, wealth, and power to the U.N. since the founding of that "world body." In fact, never before in the history of the world has any nation voluntarily engaged in such a sweeping transfer to anyone.

This is the case because LOST creates a new supranational agency, the International Seabed Authority (ISA), which will have control of seven-tenths of the world surface area, i.e., the planet's international waters. That control will enable the ISA and a court created to adjudicate and enforce its edicts the right to determine who does what, where, when, and how in the oceans under its purview. This applies first and foremost to exploration and exploitation of the mineral and oil and gas deposits on or under the seabeds -- an authority that will enable the U.N. for the first time to impose what amount to taxes on commercial activities.

LOST, however, will also interfere with America's sovereign exercise of freedom of the seas in ways that will have an adverse effect on national security, especially in the post-9/11 world. Incredibly, it will preclude, for example, the president's important new Proliferation Security Initiative. PSI is a multinational arrangement whereby ships on the high seas that are suspected of engaging in the transfer of WMD-related equipment can be intercepted, searched, and, where appropriate, seized. Its value was demonstrated in the recent interception of nuclear equipment headed to Libya.

Similarly, LOST will define intelligence collection in and submerged transit of territorial waters to be incompatible with the treaty's requirements that foreign powers conduct themselves in such seas only with "peaceful intent." The last thing we need is for some U.N. court -- or U.S. lawyers in its thrall -- to make it more difficult for us to conduct sensitive counterterrorism operations in the world's littorals.

Since my last column on this subject, there have been several notable developments with respect to the Law of the Sea Treaty:

It has become clear that one of the prime movers behind the Bush administration's support for this U.N.-on-steroids treaty is none other than John Turner, a man property-rights activists kept from assuming a senior position in the Interior Department. Correctly seen by that community as a wild-eyed proponent of conservation at the expense of landowners' equities, he was given a consolation prize: a seemingly innocuous post as the State Department's assistant secretary for Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs. It turns out that in that position -- and thanks to his longtime friendship with Vice President Cheney -- Turner has greatly advanced what is arguably the most egregious assault on property rights in history.

The United States Navy has trotted out arguments for this treaty that reflect what might be called the River Kwai Syndrome. Like the British senior POW in World War II who couldn't bring himself to blow up a bridge his captors would use to their military advantage, Navy lawyers seem convinced that a bad deal is better than none.

Even though this accord will manifestly interfere with important peacetime naval operations, JAG types tell us they think it will be good for their business if freedom of the seas is guaranteed by a new, U.N.-administered international legal system rather than by U.S. naval power. They speciously assert that a 1994 agreement negotiated by President Clinton fixes the problems that caused President Reagan to reject LOST -- never mind that the Clinton accord does not amend or otherwise formally modify one jot of the treaty.

Fortunately, this nonsense will be exposed to critical examination in coming weeks as two Senate committees, Environment and Public Works and Armed Services, hold hearings on LOST. Their chairmen, Sen. Jim Inhofe (R., Okla.) and John Warner (R., Va.), respectively, deserve credit for inviting critics of the treaty (including this author) to provide testimony Indiana Republican senator Richard Lugar refused to permit the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to hear before it approved the resolution of ratification. (Other committees that have equities in this fight -- like Governmental Affairs, Commerce, Energy, Intelligence and Finance -- have yet to be heard from.)
The prospect these hearings and the attendant public scrutiny of the Law of the Sea Treaty will precipitate a time-consuming and politically costly debate has prompted Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R., Tenn.) to say that he sees no opportunity for the foreseeable future to bring this accord to the floor. Assuming he is good to his word, still more time will be available to awaken the American people to what is afoot.

Most importantly, one of those people, President George W. Bush, may recently have been awakened to the dangers -- political, as well as strategic and economic -- inherent in this treaty. In response to a question recently put to him by Paul Weyrich, the legendary conservative activist and president of the Free Congress Foundation, President Bush indicated that he was unaware of the Law of the Sea Treaty and his administration's support for it. It can only be hoped that, as he conducts the promised review of LOST, he will make clear he does not want it ratified, now or ever.

Better yet, President Bush should assign his trusted undersecretary of Arms Control and International Security, John Bolton, the job of arranging for LOST to be "unsigned" -- just as he did with respect to the fatally flawed treaty that created the International Criminal Court. Secretary Bolton would be particularly appropriate for this job, since he was also the prime architect of the Proliferation Security Initiative that the Law of the Sea Treaty would eviscerate.

While such developments are generally welcome, one thing curiously has not happened. The alarm about the defective Law of the Sea Treaty has still not been sounded by the likes of Rush Limbaugh and Fox News. It can only be hoped that, as the Senate hearings on LOST start next week, this oversight will be corrected, ensuring that the treaty is deep-sixed, once and for all.

-- Frank J. Gaffney Jr. is president of the Center for Security Policy and a contributing editor to NRO.
http://www.nationalreview.com/gaffney/gaffney200403181156.asp
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'Lame duck' Khatami concedes defeat to Iran's hardliners
By Behzad Farsian, in Teheran and Robin Gedye
(Filed: 18/03/2004)
? Copyright of Telegraph Group Limited 2004.
The reformist President Mohammad Khatami of Iran conceded that he had reached the limits of his powers and would be a lame duck head of state until his term ends next year.
He said he was withdrawing two bills that sought to limit the power of the ruling conservative hardliners "so that the few powers that the president still has are not eliminated. "I have met with defeat," he said.
President Khatami: powerless
One of the bills was intended to increase presidential controls in order to limit constitutional violations by the ruling conservatives.
The other was intended to stop the Guardian Council, the hardline constitutional watchdog, from determining who could run in elections. In February's parliamentary poll it barred about 2,500 candidates.
Mr Khatami said he would continue in office until his term expires in June next year, but his admission of political impotence marked the formal burial of the reform movement on whose now-shattered dreams he swept to power in 1997.
"Since last month's elections parliament has been in the hands of a majority of hardline conservatives," said a former Khatami supporter. "He has merely admitted what the public have known since his second term in office began in 2001: his defeat by the conservatives."
Mr Khatami, who has pursued a policy of appeasement towards the conservative opposition, has consistently excused his lack of progress in introducing reformist laws by insisting that he was powerless to stop hardliners interfering with the country's democratic process.
The president is responsible for enforcing the constitution. But any attempts Mr Khatami has made to prevent hardliners shutting down more than 100 liberal publications, blocking reforms and detaining dozens of pro-reform activists have been ignored. Mr Khatami warned the Guardian Council not to "weaken the system".
He said: "People should know that in certain quarters the president is not seen as Iran's top official after the supreme leader, but merely as a co-ordinator among other institutions."
"It's too late for him to do anything," said a 21-year-old student at Teheran University, once a fervent supporter of the president. "The way he handled the election crisis was awful. If he wanted our support, he should have resigned then and not voted in the [parliamentary] elections."
* Mohamed ElBaradei, the chief United Nations nuclear watchdog, said yesterday that he could not rule out the possibility that Iran has a nuclear weapons programme. He said Iran had been developing a nuclear fuel cycle.
"Have they taken the step from that into weaponisation? I am not yet excluding that possibility," he told a US congressional subcommittee.

-------------------------------------------------------------

>> TALK TO?

U.S., Iran Are Urged to Talk Over Nuclear Plans
By Joby Warrick
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, March 18, 2004; Page A28
The United Nations' top nuclear official appealed to President Bush yesterday to begin new talks with Iran as a step toward resolving the controversy over the Islamic nation's aggressive pursuit of nuclear power.
Mohamed ElBaradei, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, also urged the administration to support a global freeze on the production of fissile material such as enriched uranium and plutonium. The discovery two years ago of a massive uranium enrichment plant south of Tehran triggered the current diplomatic showdown over Iran's nuclear program.
"This is a different ballgame, and we have to change the rules," ElBaradei told reporters after 45 minutes of meetings with Bush and national security adviser Condoleezza Rice.
ElBaradei said Iran appears to have resumed cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, four days after Iranian leaders barred a team of IAEA inspectors from entering the country. But he suggested that direct talks with the United States may be key to ending the crisis.
"The best way to resolve these problems is through dialogue," ElBaradei said. Asked whether he had relayed a private message to Bush from the Iranians, ElBaradei declined to comment.
The meeting between Bush and ElBaradei came amid reports of a split within the administration over whether to pursue negotiations with Iran, a country that Bush has labeled part of an "axis of evil."
Yesterday, the Financial Times of London reported that Iran offered 10 months ago to hold secret talks on normalizing relations with the United States. The talks reportedly would address U.S. concerns over Iran's nuclear program as well as the Islamic republic's support of terrorist groups.
The Bush administration did not respond publicly to the call for dialogue. Before the meeting with ElBaradei, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said the administration had "not received any official proposals" from Iran, and he played down the usefulness of new talks in resolving the conflict.
"There are obviously a number of concerns we have with regard to Iran [that] they need to address," McClellan said. "We've always said in the past that there are established channels of communication when we have issues of mutual concern to address."
A State Department spokesman yesterday expressed satisfaction with the IAEA's recent moves to pressure Iran into fully disclosing past nuclear activities. On Saturday, the agency's governing board approved a resolution that sharply criticized Iran for failing to acknowledge efforts to acquire advanced centrifuge machines used to enrich uranium.
"We shared the view that the best way to deal with that [Iran's] program is through the IAEA," spokesman J. Adam Ereli said.
Earlier in the day, ElBaradei told a congressional panel that it is too early to tell if Iran's nuclear program was entirely peaceful, as its government contends. Asked if Iran had begun work on nuclear weapons, the IAEA chief said: "The jury is still out."
"We have not yet seen that, but I am not yet excluding that possibility," ElBaradei told the House International Relations Committee's subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia.
During his White House talks, ElBaradei asked the Bush administration to back several of his initiatives to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, including the freeze on the production of fissile material. He also asked for U.S. help in securing supplies of weapons-grade uranium and plutonium that are used as fuel in scores of nuclear research reactors around the world. Such fuels, if obtained by terrorists, could easily be used in making a nuclear bomb.
"We need to have a good plan in place to clean up nuclear materials that are all over the place," ElBaradei said.

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washingtonpost.com
More Private Forces Eyed for Iraq
Green Zone Contractor Would Free U.S. Troops for Other Duties

By Walter Pincus
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, March 18, 2004; Page A25
The U.S.-led authority in Iraq plans to spend as much as $100 million over 14 months to hire private security forces to protect the Green Zone, the four-square-mile area in Baghdad that houses most U.S. government employees and some of the private contractors working there.
The Green Zone is now guarded primarily by U.S. military forces, but the Coalition Provisional Authority wants to turn much of that work over to contractors to free more U.S. forces to confront a violent insurgency. The companies would employ former military personnel and be responsible for safeguarding the area for the first year after political authority is transferred to an interim Iraqi government on June 30.
Surrounded by 15-foot concrete walls and rings of barbed wire, the Green Zone is on the west bank of the Tigris River and serves as a relatively secure home, office and relaxation area for more than 3,000 people in what is otherwise an increasingly dangerous city.
The car bomb that killed at least 28 yesterday destroyed a hotel across the river and less than a mile from the Green Zone, in a neighborhood where some of the U.S. authority's contractors live and where security is far less robust.
U.S. officials expect attacks by insurgents to increase as the June 30 deadline for the political transition nears, and are struggling to protect employees of the CPA and civilians employed by its contractors.
The U.S. Embassy slated to open in June will be in the Green Zone, though not in Saddam Hussein's Republican Palace that has housed CPA Administrator L. Paul Bremer. Also within the guarded area are the al-Rashid Hotel; the Iraqi Governing Council offices; the Convention Center where news conferences are held, a military police compound; a recreation facility, restaurants; two compounds for food and service employees of contractor Kellogg, Brown & Root; a parking area; and a heliport.
The zone has regularly come under attack in past months. On March 7, seven rockets were fired into the zone, five hitting the al-Rashid Hotel. Saturday night, in what officials said was a first, someone stabbed and badly wounded a U.S. Army officer who was walking inside the gated compound. Dan Senor, chief spokesman of the Coalition Provisional Authority, said Monday that it was not known whether the attacker was Iraqi, American or some other nationality.
Bremer, his staff and Iraqis working with the CPA are now protected by the U.S. military and some private security organizations already on contract. Expanding the commercial security force will "augment coalition military forces and allow coalition military forces to focus on counterterrorism and the highest priority sites within the Green Zone," according to the March 7 solicitation for bids.
Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt told reporters yesterday that the U.S. military is trying to reduce the number of troops inside Baghdad and station them in six bases on the city's perimeter. "That will reduce much but not all of the coalition presence here inside the city of Baghdad, because we certainly will be continuing the presence of American and coalition forces inside to provide a safe and secure environment," said Kimmitt, who did not address plans for hiring additional civilian forces to take over in the Green Zone.
The threats that the private security force will be asked to meet provide a summary of the dangers facing U.S. and coalition personnel 10 months after President Bush declared the main fighting over. The contractor, according to the bid proposal, must be prepared to deal with vehicles containing explosive devices, the improvised explosives planted on roads, "direct fire and ground assaults by upwards of 12 personnel with military rifles, machine guns and RPG [rocket-propelled grenade], indirect fire by mortars and rockets, individual suicide bombers, and employment of other weapons of mass destruction . . . in an unconventional warfare setting."
To meet that challenge, the bidders' personnel must have prior military experience, and those involved directly in force protection must have "operated in U.S., North Atlantic Treaty Organization or other military organizations compatible with NATO standards."
If Iraqis are hired by either the prime contractor or subcontractors, they cannot be former senior members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party or affiliated with any organization the Iraqi Governing Council labeled as prohibited. No contractor or subcontractor can "display the image or likeness of Saddam Hussein or other readily identifiable members of the former regime or symbols of the Baath Party or the former regime in government buildings or public spaces," the solicitation said.
Contractors will also be expected to provide dogs and handlers experienced in detecting explosives to provide 24-hour per day, seven-day-a-week coverage for all entry control points and all other locations, the proposal states.
The bids are due Sunday, and selection will apparently be quick. The winner is expected to begin work on April 1. For its part, the U.S. government will supply housing, meals and minor medical care to the contractor employees along with vaccinations against anthrax and smallpox.



? 2004 The Washington Post Company

Posted by maximpost at 4:51 PM EST
Permalink

>> FACE IT?


Living with the unthinkable: how to Coexist with a Nuclear North Korea.
"National Interest, The", Winter, 2003, by Ted Galen Carpenter

THERE IS A pervasive desire in the United States and throughout East Asia to prevent North Korea from becoming a nuclear-armed power, for the prospect of Kim Jong-il's bizarre and unpredictable regime having such a capability is profoundly disturbing. Two factions have emerged in the United States about how to deal with the crisis, and they embrace sharply different strategies. Yet they share an important underlying assumption: that North Korea is using its nuclear program merely as a negotiating ploy, and that Pyongyang can eventually be induced to give up that program.

One group thinks that Washington's top policy objective should be to entice Pyongyang to return to the 1994 Agreed Framework, under which the North Koreans agreed to freeze their nuclear program in exchange for fuel oil shipments and Western assistance in constructing proliferation resistant lightwater reactors for power generation. These advocates of dialogue think the United States should meet North Korea's demand for a non-aggression pact and provide other concessions to resolve the nuclear crisis. Individuals as politically diverse as former President Jimmy Carter, Sen. Joseph Lieberman (D-CT), former national security advisor Brent Scowcroft and Rep. Curt Weldon (R-PA) have issued impassioned calls for a strategy of dialogue and concessions. Those who advocate that strategy ignore an important point, however: The United States has negotiated with North Korea before, but each understanding or formal agreement seems merely to pave the way for a new round of cheating and a new crisis.

The Bush Administration and most conservatives form the competing faction, which is decidedly more skeptical about the efficacy of offering concessions to Pyongyang. Moreover, it is apparent that the administration has no interest in merely restoring the Agreed Framework. Washington's goal is an agreement that would include comprehensive "on demand" inspections of all possible nuclear weapons sites. Indeed, it was that demand that contributed to an impasse in the six-party talks (involving Japan, South Korea, China, Russia, the United States and North Korea) in August.

The administration's approach combines a willingness to engage in multilateral talks with a determination to tighten the screws economically. One manifestation of the latter component is the Proliferation Security Initiative, which enlists the support of allies to interdict North Korea's trade in ballistic missiles, nuclear technology, illegal drugs and other contraband. The core of Washington's strategy is to forge a united diplomatic and economic front with the nations of East Asia to pressure North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program.

But if the advocates of negotiations and concessions are naive, proponents of diplomatic pressure and economic coercion may not be much more realistic. It is not at all clear that even comprehensive economic sanctions would produce the desired policy changes. UNICEF has concluded that, because North Korea is already so desperately poor, economic sanctions would have a slight impact. Trying to further isolate one of the world's most economically isolated countries is a little like threatening to deprive a monk of worldly pleasures. Tightening economic sanctions may cause additional suffering among North Korea's destitute masses, but such an approach is unlikely to alter the regime's behavior on the nuclear issue.

Ultimately, the competing strategies of dialogue and economic/diplomatic pressure are based on the same assumption: that the right policy mix will cause the North to give up its nuclear ambitions. But what if that assumption is wrong? CIA director George Tenet concedes that North Korea may believe there is no contradiction between continuing to pursue a nuclear weapons program and seeking a "normal relationship" with the United States--a relationship that would entail substantial concessions from Washington. "Kim Jong-il's attempts to parlay the North's nuclear program into political leverage suggest he is trying to negotiate a fundamentally different relationship with Washington, one that implicitly tolerates the North's nuclear weapons program", Tenet concludes. (1) Robert Madsen, a fellow at Stanford University's Asia/Pacific Research Center is even more skeptical of the conventional wisdom that North Korea is using the nuclear program solely as a bargaining chip. As he argued in the Financial Times,


The problem with this analysis is that
Pyongyang probably does not intend to trade
its nuclear weapons for foreign concessions.
To the contrary, an examination of North
Korea's national interests suggests the acquisition
of a sizeable nuclear arsenal is a perfectly
rational objective.


Given the way the United States has treated non-nuclear adversaries such as Serbia and Iraq, such a conclusion by North Korean leaders would not be all that surprising.

Pyongyang's long-standing pattern of making agreements to remain non-nuclear and then systematically violating those agreements also casts doubt on the bargaining chip thesis. In addition to violating the 1994 Agreed Framework, the North violated its obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (which Pyongyang joined in 1985) and the 1991 joint declaration with South Korea to keep the peninsula non-nuclear. Such repeated cheating raises a very disturbing possibility: Perhaps North Korea is determined to become a nuclear power and has engaged in diplomatic obfuscation to confuse or lull its adversaries. If that is the case, the United States and the countries of East Asia may have to deal with the reality of a nuclear-armed North Korea.

Pre-emption vs. Containment

THE POLICY options available to forestall this dangerous development are all rather unpleasant, but one is decidedly worse and significantly more frightening than the others: the possibility that the United States might use military force to prevent North Korea from building its nuclear arsenal. Hawks in the American foreign policy community are already broaching that possibility. Citing Israel's raid on Iraq's Osirak reactor, Richard Perle, the influential former chairman of the Pentagon's Defense Policy Board, warns that no one can "exclude the kind of surgical strike we saw in 1981." Moreover, in what should sound alarm bells in Tokyo and Seoul, he makes it clear that America's allies should not expect to exercise a veto over that decision. (2)

Many advocates of pre-emptive military action are confident that such a course would not trigger a major war in East Asia. Those who embrace that optimistic scenario fail to explain why the North Korean elite would assume that a passive response to an American pre-emptive strike would enhance the prospects for regime survival. Given the way the United States treated Iraq, the North Koreans would more likely conclude that an attack on the country's nuclear installations would be merely a prelude to a larger military offensive to achieve regime change. The fact that some political allies of the Bush Administration openly talk about pushing regime change certainly does not reassure Pyongyang on that score.

Using military force to eradicate North Korea's nuclear program would be a high-risk venture that could easily engulf the Korean Peninsula in a major war. Indeed, it could be a war with nuclear implications. North Korea boasts that it already possesses some nuclear weapons, and U.S. intelligence sources have long believed that Pyongyang already may have built one or two weapons by the time it agreed to freeze its program in 1994. An assessment by China's intelligence agency is even more alarming. Beijing reportedly believes the North may have four or five such weapons. Worse still, press reports contend that U.S. officials have told their Japanese counterparts that North Korea is working to develop "several" nuclear warheads that can be loaded onto ballistic missiles. North Korea itself has announced that it has completed reprocessing the spent fuel rods in the Yongbyon reactor and is now building more nuclear weapons. If true, Pyongyang will soon have a deployable arsenal, not merely one or two crude nuclear devices.

A pre-emptive strike is not the answer. The nuclear variable in the pre-emption equation is too uncertain to warrant the risk for at least this simple reason: It is not at all certain that the United States has identified all of the installations, much less that it could successfully eradicate them. North Korea has had years to build installations deep underground and to disperse any weapons it has built.

It is unlikely that North Korea would passively accept the blow against its sovereignty that even a surgical strike against the Yongbyon reactor complex or other targets would entail. At the very least, Washington would have to expect terrorist retaliation by North Korean operatives against U.S. targets overseas and, possibly, in the homeland itself. North Korea might even retaliate by launching full-scale military operations against South Korea--a development that would put U.S. forces stationed in that country in immediate danger. Indeed, in a worst-case scenario, mushroom clouds could blossom above Seoul and Tokyo--or above U.S. bases in South Korea or Okinawa.

It is conceivable, of course, that Kim Jong-il's regime would fulminate about an Osirak-like strike but not escalate the crisis to full-scale war. Or perhaps North Korea's military would unravel under stress and not be able to mount a coherent offensive. But that is not the way to bet. Even a U.S. military buildup in the region designed to intimidate Pyongyang could trigger a catastrophe. "Bold Sentinel"--a war game organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in May 2003, featuring a mock National Security Council comprised of individuals who held senior policy positions in previous administrations--reached the conclusion that North Korea would likely launch a pre-emptive strike in response to such a buildup. This assessment is shared by a senior North Korean defector, Cho Myung-chul, who estimates the chances of general war to be 80 percent in response to even a limited strike on Yongbyon.

Aside from its possible nuclear (and chemical and biological) weapons, Pyongyang possesses other impressive capabilities. In addition to its army of more than a million soldiers, North Korea deploys up to 600 Scud missiles and additional longer-range Nodong missiles. The Seoul-Inchon metropolitan area (which hosts roughly half of South Korea's population) is less than forty miles from the DMZ. Pyongyang is thought to be capable of firing between 300,000 and 500,000 artillery shells an hour into Seoul in the event of war. Even if the North were ultimately defeated, which would be almost inevitable, the destruction to South Korea would be horrific. Estimates of the number of likely casualties from a full-scale North Korean attack range from 100,000 to more than one million. That fact alone should take the military option off the table, yet the Bush Administration has publicly--and, what is worse, privately--declined to do so.

INSTEAD OF placing faith in the efficacy of negotiations with a country that has violated every agreement it has ever signed on the nuclear issue or considering the dangerous option of pre-emptive war, the United States needs a strategy to deal with the prospect of North Korea's emergence as a nuclear power. Washington should pursue a two-pronged strategy, since there are two serious problems that must be addressed. One problem is the possibility that Pyongyang might be aiming to become a regional nuclear power with a significant arsenal that could pose a threat to its neighbors and, ultimately, to the American homeland. The latter is not an immediate danger, but a North Korean capability to do so over the longer-term is a problem Washington must anticipate.

Countering the threat of a "bolt out of the blue" attack on the United States is relatively straightforward. America retains the largest and most sophisticated nuclear arsenal in the world, as well as a decisive edge in all conventional military capabilities. The North Korean regime surely knows (although it might behoove the administration to make the point explicitly) that any attack on American soil would mean the obliteration of the regime. The United States successfully deterred a succession of aggressive and odious Soviet leaders from using nuclear weapons, and it did the same thing with a nuclear-armed China under Mao Zedong. It is therefore highly probable that Kim Jong-il's North Korea, which would possess a much smaller nuclear arsenal than either the Soviet Union and China, can be deterred as well. As an insurance policy to protect the American population in the highly unlikely event that deterrence fails, and for other reasons besides, Washington should continue developing a shield against ballistic missiles.

To counter North Korea's possible threat to East Asia, Washington should convey the message that Pyongyang would be making a serious miscalculation by assuming it will possess a nuclear monopoly in northeast Asia. North Korea's rulers are counting on the United States to prevent Japan and South Korea from even considering the option of going nuclear. American officials should inform Pyongyang that, if the North insists on joining the global nuclear weapons club, Washington will urge Tokyo and Seoul to re-evaluate their earlier decisions to decline to acquire strategic nuclear deterrents. Even the possibility that South Korea and Japan might do so would come as an extremely unpleasant wakeup call to North Korea.

The United States does not need to press Tokyo and Seoul to go nuclear. It is sufficient if Washington informs those governments that the United States would not object to them developing nuclear weapons. That by itself would be a major change in U.S. policy. In addition, Washington needs to let Seoul and Tokyo know that the United States intends to withdraw its forces from South Korea and Japan. In an environment with a nuclear-armed North Korea, those forward-deployed forces are not military assets; they are nuclear hostages.

Faced with a dangerous neighbor possessing nuclear capabilities and a more limited U.S. military commitment to the region, Japan or South Korea (or perhaps both countries) might well decide to build a nuclear deterrent. The prospect of additional nuclear proliferation in northeast Asia is obviously not an ideal outcome. But offsetting the North's illicit advantage may be the best of a set of bad options. Simply trying to renegotiate the 1994 Agreed Framework is unlikely to induce North Korea to return to non-nuclear status. Diplomatic pressure and economic sanctions are not likely to achieve that goal either. And pre-emptive military strikes are too dangerous.

The one chance to get the North to abandon its current course is for Washington and its allies to make clear to Pyongyang that it may have to deal with nuclear neighbors (translation: the North would no longer be able to intimidate them in the same strategically advantageous way). Indeed, Pyongyang could face the prospect of confronting more prosperous adversaries possessing a greater capacity to build larger and more sophisticated nuclear arsenals than North Korea could hope to do. The North may conclude that ending its cheating strategy and keeping the region non-nuclear would be a more productive approach. Even if Pyongyang does not do so, a nuclear balance of power--a MAD for northeast Asia--would likely emerge instead of a North Korean nuclear monopoly.

Additionally, the prospect of a nuclear-armed Japan is the one factor that could galvanize Beijing to put serious diplomatic and economic pressure on Pyongyang to relinquish its nuclear ambitions. Charles Krautharnmer has expressed this thesis starkly in the Washington Post:


We should go to the Chinese and tell them
plainly that if they do not join us in squeezing
North Korea and thus stopping its march to
go nuclear, we will endorse any Japanese
attempt to create a nuclear deterrent of its
own. Even better, we would sympathetically
regard any request by Japan to acquire
American nuclear missiles as an immediate
and interim deterrent. If our nightmare is a
nuclear North Korea, China's is a nuclear
Japan. It's time to share the nightmares.


Even if one does not embrace Krauthammer's approach, the reality is that, if the United States blocks the emergence of a northeast Asian nuclear balance, it may well be stuck with the responsibility of shielding non-nuclear allies from a volatile, nuclear-armed North Korea. More proliferation may be a troubling outcome, but it beats that nightmare scenario.

But some of the most hawkish members of the U.S. foreign policy community are terrified at the prospect of America's democratic allies in East Asia building nuclear deterrents. Neoconservative activists Robert Kagan and William Kristol, writing in the Weekly Standard, expressed horror about the possibility of such proliferation: "The possibility that Japan, and perhaps even Taiwan, might respond to North Korea's actions by producing their own nuclear weapons, thus spurring an East Asian nuclear arms race ... is something that should send chills up the spine of any sensible American strategist." This attitude misconstrues the problem. The real threat to East Asia is if an aggressive and erratic North Korean regime gets nukes. Nuclear arsenals in the hands of stable, democratic, status quo powers such as Japan and South Korea do not threaten the peace of the region. Kagan and Kristol, and other likeminded Americans, embrace a moral equivalency between a potential aggressor and its potential victims.

The other component of the North Korean nuclear problem is even more troubling. The United States and North Korea's neighbors can probably learn to live with Pyongyang's possession of a small nuclear arsenal. What the United States cannot tolerate is North Korea's becoming the global distributor of nuclear technology, potentially selling a nuclear weapon or fissile material to Al-Qaeda or other anti-American terrorist organizations. Pyongyang has shown a willingness to sell anything that will raise revenue for the financially hard-pressed regime. North Korea earned $560 million in 2001 alone in missile sales--including sales to some of the most virulently anti-American regimes (3)--while, in the spring of 2003, evidence emerged of extensive North Korean involvement in the heroin trade. (4) As Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage remarked before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in early-February 2003, "the arms race in North Korea pales next to the possibility ... that she would pass on fissile material and other nuclear technology to either transnational actors or to rogue states."

Preventing that development, which is clearly the goal of the Proliferation Security Initiative, will certainly not be easy. Successful interdiction as a general policy is a long shot at best. The utter failure to halt the trafficking in illegal drugs using that method does not bode well for intercepting nuclear contraband. It would be difficult to seal off North Korea in the face of a concerted smuggling campaign. Indeed, it is especially daunting when one realizes that the amount of plutonium needed to build a nuclear weapon could be smuggled in a container the size of a bread box.

SINCE interdiction is unlikely to prove successful except on fortuitous occasions, the United States needs to adopt another approach. First, Washington should communicate to North Korea, both in private and publicly, that selling nuclear material--much less an assembled nuclear weapon--to terrorist organizations or hostile governments will be regarded as a threat to America's vital security interests. Indeed, the United States should treat such a transaction as the equivalent of a threatened attack on America by North Korea. Such a threat would warrant military action to remove the North Korean regime. Pyongyang must be told in no uncertain terms that trafficking in nuclear materials is a bright red line that it dare not cross if the regime wishes to survive.

That warning should be the large stick in Washington's policy mix. The carrot should consist of a willingness to extend diplomatic recognition to, and lift all economic sanctions on, North Korea. Making that country's economy more prosperous is the most realistic prospect for ensuring that North Korea can derive sufficient income from legitimate sources and thus will not be tempted to engage in nuclear proliferation. That, of course, will require extensive economic reforms by North Korea along the lines adopted by the People's Republic of China over the past quarter-century.

Lifting economic sanctions is certainly no guarantee that North Korean leaders will have the prudence to adopt the required reforms, but Pyongyang has shown some signs in recent years of modifying its ideology of Juche (self-sufficiency) and opening itself to the outside world economically. In the spring of 2003, the North Korean regime started building market halls around the country to encourage the activity of private merchants, and it loosened rules about who may do business and what may be sold. Surprisingly, even foreigners will be allowed to sell their products in the new markets. "Before, they were tolerating private business. Now, they are encouraging it", concluded Cho Myong Choi, a North Korean defector who once taught economics at Kim Il-sung University in Pyongyang. (5) True, these are initial--and somewhat hesitant--steps on a long path, and Washington cannot do much to advance North Korea's economic reforms. The North Koreans will have to do the bulk of the work. At the very least, though, the United States should not put obstacles in the path of reform.

A policy mix of such carrots and sticks would hardly produce a perfect outcome. The strategy would, however, trump the alternative of vainly trying to bribe or pressure Pyongyang to relinquish its nuclear ambitions, even as evidence mounts to the contrary. And it certainly beats the reckless option of launching a pre-emptive war. As is often the case, the best a policy can ultimately accomplish is less than ideal. What matters instead is that it works.

(1) Quoted in the New York Times, February 13, 2003 (emphasis added).

(2) "U.S. Can't Rule Out N. Korea Strike, Perle Says", Reuters, June 11, 2003.

(3) The North has developed a sophisticated sales network for marketing its military wares. See Bertil Lintner and Steve Stecklow, "Paper Trail Exposes Missile Merchants", Far Eastern Economic Review, February 13, 2003, pp. 12-15.

(4) See "Heroin Trail Leads to North Korea", Washington Post, May 12, 2003; "U.S. Fears Heroin Paying for Nukes", Washington Times, May 21, 2003; and "North Korea Is Said to Export Drugs to Get Foreign Currency", New York Times, May 21, 2003.

(5) Quoted in "Communist State Pushes Free Enterprise", Los Angeles Times, June 19, 2003.

Ted Galen Carpenter is vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute. He is the co-author of Korean Conundrum: America's Troubled Relations with North and South Korea, which is forthcoming from Palgrave/Macmillan.

COPYRIGHT 2003 The National Affairs, Inc.
COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group

Posted by maximpost at 12:21 AM EST
Permalink
Wednesday, 17 March 2004


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SHRC Calls the 8th of March 2004 a National Day Against Emergency Laws
SHRC
Syria has been suffocating over the past 41 years as a result of the Emergency Laws which were imposed on the 8th of March 1963 following the coup de tat which brought the Ba'th Party to power. Despite the approval of a permanent constitution in 1973, which itself consisted of grave faults and shortcoming, Article 153 thereof stopped any of its contents being implemented, as it stipulated the continuance of the state of emergency, and legitimised all exceptional laws, tyrannical measures and on-site court trials that followed, all of which continue to be practiced and in effect under the pretext of countering the foreign enemy.
Throughout those 41 years, the state of emergency has expanded to include many more oppressive, arbitrary and tyrannical laws that have been enacted and many courts, both special and exceptional, have been held. Under the pretext of the martial laws, prison cells have been filled and thousands have been detained and inhumanely tortured. 17,000 political prisoners remain unaccounted for and are thought to have died under torture or have been killed in one of the many massacres committed in the prisons of Palmyra and Al-Mazza as well as in the various Intelligence and Security Force bureaus throughout Syria, following fictitious trials which lacked the most basic principles of justice and impartiality.
It goes without saying that all sections of the political, social and racial array have suffered immensely from these oppressive and arbitrary measures, and many continue to linger in Syrian prison cells because of their political views, ideas, stands, affiliations or tendencies. One of the main consequences of the imposition of Emergency Laws, was that authority and power were concentrated in the hands of a small group who took advantage of this, exercised oppression and tyranny across the board, and committed a number of massacres which claimed the lives of tens of thousands of innocent citizens.
The totalitarian authority governing Syria has proved its absolute failure in solving any of the country's political, social, economic or ethnic problems and resorted to exercising extreme oppression instead, and referred all problems through security and intelligence channels in accordance to the mandate granted by the Emergency Laws and the exceptional regulations that followed.
Furthermore, the regime failed in dealing with critical issues, ranging from the occupied Syrian lands to Syria's presence in Lebanon and many other issues no less threatening to the country and its future.
The continuation of Emergency Laws over a number of decades has resulted in the country reaching a state of total political and social collapse, economic stagnation and malfunction, widespread corruption, siphoning of national wealth and the transgression of security forces in respect to all sectors of Syrian life.
As a result of the regime's continued insistence to pursue the same oppressive means through the persistence of the state of emergency and martial laws throughout the country despite all the appeals and calls from human rights groups and civil society organisations, the Syrian Human Rights Committee has declared the 8th of March 2004 a national day of protest against the state of emergency and calls for a total upheaval and reform of political, social, cultural, ideological and economic areas, following 41 years of such an abnormal state of affairs. SHRC also calls on Syrians as well as Syria's friends and those who uphold human rights all over the world, to hold a peaceful vigil in front of Syrian Embassies on the 8th of March 2004, and call for the following:
The lifting of the state of emergency and martial laws.
The annulment of all exceptional courts and trials.
Ceasing all oppressive and exceptional laws which were issued under the state of emergency.
Stopping all tyrannical detentions and pursuits outside the realms of the law and justice.
The release of all political prisoners and prisoners of conscience, and the compensation of all those who spent years in prison and suffered immensely on all levels.
Reinstating the civil rights and liberties to all those whom were stripped thereof and compensating them for the harm that came unto them as a result.
Allowing the return of those exiled and deported whether voluntarily or forcibly and offering them legal guarantees of a safe passage.
Opening the cases of those who have disappeared and are unaccounted for and reinstating their or their relatives' rights and offering them compensation.
Reinstating the Syrian citizenship to those whom were stripped of it without due right and in contradiction of the Constitution.
Allowing public freedoms including the freedom of expression and the formation of political parties and civil organisations in order to steer the country towards a democratic future.
Accordingly, the Interim Executive Office of the Syrian Human Rights Committee in London, has decided to hold a peaceful vigil in front of the Syrian Embassy in London on Monday the 8th of March from 1.00 pm until 3.00 pm, demanding the lifting of the state of emergency and achieving the demands listed above.
The Syrian Human Rights Committee appeals to Syrian citizens in other capital cities to arrange for similar vigils on the aforementioned date.

Address of Syrian Embassy in London
8 Belgrave Square
SW1X 8PH
London

Nearest Underground Stations:
Hyde Park Corner (Piccadilly Line)
Knightsbridge (Piccadilly Line)
Victoria (Victoria, District and Circle Lines)






PLF: Abu Abbas to be buried in Syria; autopsy may prove his assassination
Omar Shibly, deputy secretary-general of the PLF, revealed to Al Bawaba that the body of Abu Abbas will now be buried in Syria. The late PLF leader was supposed to be buried in the West Bank but the Israeli government refused the request.
Shibly was thankful to the Syrian government for accepting to have Abu Abbas buried in Damascus.
"The Americans did not hand over the body yet. They accepted to hand it over to us...but they did not set a date yet." Shibly added.
Regarding whether he thinks that Abu Abbas' death was of natural causes, Shibly commented, "Personally, I am convinced that he was assassinated. He was in very good health. The last letter we got from him was a week before his death...in it he assured us that he was in good heath and spirits."
Shilby also asserted that the PLF is holding the US responsible for the death of their leader.
"An Arab and Palestinian panel will be formed to try to get to the bottom of the issue. Also, we will be asking for an international panel to investigate the incident. The most obvious proof that Abu Abbas was assassinated is because he died in US custody." Shibly added. (albawaba.com)


Arab human rights group holds Syrian government responsible for Friday's riots
Haitham Al Manaa', spokesperson for the Arab panel for human rights, told Al Bawaba Sunday that the panel has invited various Arab and Kurdish parties to meet in Paris to discuss Al Qamishli riots that took place last Friday. Al Manaa' added that the panel is also stressing the urgent need for reform.
The panel held the Syrian security apparatus responsible for the tragedy. Reports said that at least 15 people were killed in the riots that interrupted a soccer match between Syria's Jihad and Fatwa teams.
"The Syrian security apparatus are the ones to blame; they were the ones who opened fire on innocent civilians. We ask all Syrians to rise above the calls for sectarianism and to listen to the voice of reason in order to solve this issue" Manaa' told Al Bawaba.
"We are demanding a local yet independent panel to investigate the incident. In the case that such a panel is not formed, we would be willing to cooperate with the human rights organizations in Syria [within the scope of the investigation] to try to establish the parties responsible," Manaa' concluded.
Ghazi Al Deeb, director general of the Syrian Arab News Agency - SANA, (the official government news source), explained to Al Bawaba that what had happened in Qamishli was very sad indeed, however "many parties are trying to exaggerate the incident for their own political gain. A mere sporting riot was exploited to get people to leave the stadium and street-riot," Deeb added.
Syria's state-run newspapers and news agencies generally act as mouthpieces for the government.
"Kurds are an essential part of Syrian society. The Syrian government does not differentiate between its citizens, especially within its official institutions. Syria had a Kurdish prime minister in the past and the current grand mufti of Syria is a Kurd...serving his post as a Syrian rather than a Kurd," Deeb explained.
Deeb also confirmed that the Syrian government has already formed an investigative panel to look into the incident. The panel is expected to conduct a thorough investigation and bring those responsible to justice. (Albawaba)



More Kurds, Arabs reported killed in northern Syria
At least 17 Kurds were killed in northern Syria in clashes with Arabs, as unrest among the Kurdish population spread to more towns and villages, an official of a Kurdish party told reporters on Wednesday.
Mashaal Timo, a member of the political bureau of the Kurdish People's Union, said nine people were killed in the Asharafiye and Sheikh Maksud districts of Aleppo, the main northwestern city.
Another six were killed in the village of Ifrin, 40km northwest of Aleppo and two others in Ras al-Ain, on the Turkish border to the northeast, he told the AFP.
The clashes started on Tuesday and continued overnight, and followed police suppression of rioting in the city of Qamishli, in which at least 19 Kurds were reported killed at the weekend following disturbances during a football match.
Timo conveyed Arabs had also been killed at Qamishli and Arab tribesmen seeking revenge had attacked Kurdish villages along the Turkish border, including Amuda, Derik, Ain Diwar, Malkiye and Derbassiye.
According to Timo, Syrian authorities made efforts to restore calm and had held a meeting with leaders of both sides. (Albawaba.com)





Gains made by Kurds raise hopes, spur riots
By Nicholas Blanford
The Christian Science Monitor
BAGHDAD, Iraq -- It's the worst domestic unrest in Syria in two decades. Over the weekend and into Monday, Kurds rioted in several Syrian towns adjacent to Iraq and Turkey, prompting swift intervention by Syrian troops.
At least 14 Kurds died in riots, which began Friday in Qamishli during a brawl between Kurdish and Arab soccer fans. The violence reportedly began when Arab fans began chanting support for Saddam Hussein. According to diplomats in Damascus, Syrian security forces fired on the crowd, killing six people. Three children were trampled to death in the ensuing panic. Rioting the next day killed five people in Hasake, a town of Arabs and Kurds 50 miles south of Qamishli.
Violent outbursts by Syria's Kurdish minority reinforces concerns that recent political gains by Kurds in Iraq will embolden Kurds in neighboring lands to seek greater recognition. Some analysts see Kurdish ambitions for independence as a regional powder keg. Kurds have been a significant minority in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and Iran since the early 1900s, when Kurdish lands were divided as the Ottoman Empire disintegrated.
The U.S.-led war in Iraq was opposed by Syria and Iran, in part due to the potential ramifications of a resurgent Kurdish community in Iraq's north. Turkey, a regional ally of Washington, also was worried about the way the war's aftermath would impact its own Kurdish population.
Kurds in Iraq have enjoyed near autonomy for the past 12 years under a U.S. and British protective umbrella. Iraq's interim constitution, passed last week, formally recognized Kurdish control over three provinces in northern Iraq, prompting jubilant Kurds to take to the streets in Iranian cities.
The growing influence of Iraqi Kurds has apparently struck a chord with Syria's Kurdish population. Violent demonstrations such as the one over the weekend rarely happen in Syria, where the ruling Baath party maintains tight control over signs of dissent.
In the early 1970s, thousands of Arabs settled in Kurdish villages along the Turkish frontier. Kurdish place names were replaced by Arab names and the Kurdish language was banned from schools.
Restrictions on the Kurds gradually eased under Syrian President Hafez al-Assad who died in 2000.

Copyright ? 2004 The Seattle Times Company


Bashar Arriving Today for Talks
Staff Writer
RIYADH, 17 March 2004 -- Syrian President Bashar Assad will arrive here today for talks ahead of an Arab League heads of state summit later this month, an Arab diplomatic source said yesterday.
During his one-day visit, Bashar will discuss "the Arab situation, namely in Iraq and the Middle East, as well as recent developments in Syria," the source said requesting anonymity.
The reference to "recent developments in Syria" concerned the Kurdish riots which swept through several towns and villages in northeast Syria over the weekend, and which the Kingdom denounced on Monday.
Bashar's meetings in Saudi Arabia will also focus on the Arab summit in Tunis opening March 29, the source said.
Foreign ministers of the Arab League's 22 members held talks earlier this month in Cairo to draw up a blueprint for radical reform of their organization, to be submitted to the two-day summit at the initiative of Saudi Arabia, Syria and Egypt.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmad Maher earlier responded to criticism of the Saudi-Egyptian-Syrian initiative saying the door was open for any other countries to join, according to Al-Watan Arabic newspaper.
He was speaking ahead of a possible further meeting between the three countries' foreign ministers to prepare for the Tunis summit.
Maher denied suggestions the three countries were forming an "axis", and said the three-way meeting was owing to nothing more sinister than the friendly relations between them.
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak met Bashar on Sunday in Damascus and discussed the need for Arab reform to come from within and not from outside the region, Egypt's state television reported Monday.
The Arab foreign ministers earlier this month also covered a US plan for democratic reform in the Middle East, an issue the ministers decided to refer to their heads of state to discuss in Tunis.
The "Greater Middle East Initiative" has been widely rejected by Arab states, who insist that any reform cannot be imposed and must be internal.
Washington hopes to launch the scheme, which it says will bolster democracy in the Middle East, during a summit of the Group of Eight (G-8) industrialized nations in June.
The US says its initiative aims to encourage democratic reform and economic opening in the Arab world and other Muslim countries.
Seven Arab countries have presented written proposals for the reform of the Arab League, including Libya and Yemen, both of which suggest changing it into an "Arab Union".
All of the written submissions agreed on the need for a collective will to implement League commitments, reform relations between Arab states, and ensure respect for each country's sovereignty.
The most intriguing procedural issue is whether to do away with the consensus required on every decision taken and getting nations to abide by what does pass by majority vote.
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The Massacre of the Military Artillery School at Aleppo - Special Report


SHRC


On 16th June 1979, in collaboration with a number of the Combatant Vanguard (Attali'a el-Moukatillah) headed by Adnan Uqla, Captain Ibrahim el-Yousuf, the officer on duty (in charge of moral and political steering and head of Ba'ath Party Unit) at the Military Artillery school, located at el-Ramouseh district in Aleppo province, committed a massacre, killing 32 cadets and wounding 54 others. The culprits targeted cadets from the Alawite sect, however the then minister of information Mr. Ahmad Iskander Ahmad stated that they included Christians and Sunni Muslims.

The then Syrian minister of the interior, Mr. Adnan Dabbagh accused, in an official statement on 22nd June 1979 the Muslim Brotherhood Organisation for being behind the killings. He said: " The latest of their (Muslim Brotherhood) assassinations was that in the artillery school in Aleppo, where they were able to bribe a member of the armed forces, Captain Ibrahim el-Yousuf, who was born in Tadif, a village in the Governorate of Aleppo. They utilised his presence and his powers on the day when he was duty the officer at the school. On the evening of Saturday 16 June, el-Yousuf was able to bring a number of criminals of the Muslim Brotherhood organisation into the school. He then called the cadets to attend an urgent meeting in the mess hall. When they rushed from their beds in response to his orders and came to the hall, he ordered his criminals accomplices to open fire. Automatic weapons were fired and hand grenades were thrown. In a few moments, 32 unarmed young cadets were killed and 54 wounded."

On their part, the Muslim Brotherhood Organisation denied any knowledge of the carnage prior to its occurrence, they also denied any involvement in a statement distributed two days later, on 24th June 1979. The statement was entitled: A Statement from Muslim Brotherhood about facts finding and history testimony regarding the artillery school incident in Alepp "The Muslim Brotherhood organisation was surprised, exactly as the others were surprised at the campaign launched against them by Adnan Dabbagh, the Syrian minister of the interior, accusing them of treason and treasury ..., charging them with things which he is well aware that they have nothing to do with. He blamed them for the carnage committed at the artillery school and also the assassinations that took and are still taking place in Syria."

In their statement, Muslim Brotherhood made clear that the group that committed the carnage, including Ibrahim el-Yousuf are well known to the Syrian authority, and that they have nothing to do with Muslim Brotherhood: "a- Captain Ibrahim el-Yousuf who committed the carnage at the artillery school in Aleppo is known as an active member of the (ruling) Syrian Ba'ath Party. He has not any connection with Muslim Brotherhood. So, why his actions are imputed to Muslim Brotherhood ? "

In the aforesaid statement, the Brotherhood challenged the Syrian authority to give any evidence about their involvement in the massacre: " The Muslim Brotherhood challenges any authority in the world to prove, via neutral inquest, whether their leadership or members have ever committed violence; nonetheless the Syrian rule have found many adversaries who believe in the use of violence."

Twenty years later, the present leader general of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood Mr. Ali Sadruddin al-Bayanouni defended his organisation's innocence when interviewed by " No Frontiers" programme transmitted by Aljazeera satellite channel on 7th July 1999: "the Syrian authority made us responsible for incidents which we have nothing to do with, like the artillery school massacre, despite the fact that we issued a statement revealing our position. Those who committed the carnage left their statements", he said Mr. Husni Abo, the leader of the "Combatant Vanguard" who was arrested after the massacre and executed in prison in 1980, said in a televised interview (while still in custody) broadcasted by the Syrian TV in 1980 that he had not approved the massacre. It is said also that Mr. Abdusattar el-Zaim who was killed by the authority near Damascus (1979) and who led the Vanguard after the death of Marwan Hadid in prison (1975) was also against executing the massacre. In the meanwhile Adnan Uqla was very determined to carry out the action. He planned for the massacre and committed it in collaboration with Captain Ibrahim el-Yousuf.

Immediately after the massacre, a country-wide campaign was started to uproot the Muslim Brotherhood organisation. In two weeks time, the authority had already arrested about 6000 citizens. Fifteen Muslim Brotherhood members already in prison were executed. The decree issued by the supreme state security court on 27th June 1979, some of whom had been in jail since 1977 all of them have nothing to do with this issue.

Cairo radio commented on the Syrian authority's executions on 10th July 1979: " The Syrian authorities have tried to put the blame for the massacre on the Muslim Brotherhood so as to divert attention from the covert conflict between Alawis and Sunnis within the Syrian party... The members of the Muslim Brotherhood who were executed recently had been detained in Syrian prisons since 1977 and had no connection with the artillery school incident."

The Brotherhood's statement we quoted, regarded the accusation as a pre-arranged plot made by the authority to trap and condemn the Muslim Brotherhood: " Numerous Muslim Brotherhood's leaders and members have been detained for months, and some of them for years. Is the announcement issued by the authority yesterday no more than a plot to condemn them (Muslim Brotherhood) with something they have not done ?"

The Syrian authority linked between the artillery school massacre and the external opposition supported by the Egyptian president regime of Anwar Sadat, because of the former refusal to sign a peace treaty with the Zionists as the latter did: " These people moved immediately after the (Egyptian-Israeli)Sinai agreement (signed in September 1975). Their criminal actions escalated following al-Sadat's visit to Jerusalem (in November 1977), and again following the signing of the shameful and humiliating agreements with the Zionist enemy. They began a series of assassinations in Syrian cities, in Aleppo, Hama and Damascus. The victims included innocent citizens in various walks of life and of diverse employment."

The brotherhood's response was very critical : " It is incredible to accuse the Brotherhood of dealing with Israel, however , their struggle on the land of Palestine is known to all, meanwhile the others (Syrian authority) bear the responsibility of the successive defeats." " The (Syrian authority) claims that the Brotherhood are acting in favour of Camp David treaty is refuted by the fact that they are the only party who sincerely and insistently refuse a Jewish state on even a foot of the Palestinian land."

The Combatant Vanguard members (Attalia Almoukatilah) wrote their organisation's name on the board in the mess hall, recording their responsibility for the operation, leaving literature that confirmed their liability and disclosed their motives behind the massacre. Moreover, a year later on 11th June 1980, Adnan Uqla confirmed the Vanguard's responsibility for all military actions taken, including the massacre at the artillery school. He stated: " The Combatant Vanguard has its independent leadership since its conception in 1975, the Combatant Vanguard is the only party responsible for the historical confrontation resolution with the ignorance (Syrian regime)..."

Names of the main figures who planned and executed the massacre of the artillery school in Alepp

1- Adnan Uqla : born in 1953, an architect, resident of Aleppo, his family come from southern Syria. His membership in Muslim Brotherhood was terminated either in 1974 or 1977 because of his opinions regarding the armed confrontation with the Syrian regime.

2- Captain Ibrahim el-Yousuf: An active member in the Ba'ath Arab socialist party and the officer of moral and political steering at the artillery school. He was born in Tadif village in the governorate of Aleppo. It was said that his brother was killed by the Syrian authorities and he determined to avenge him. Other sources said that Adnan Uqla convinced him to work for the Combatant Vanguard.

References:

1- Statement of the Minister of the Interior, Adnan Dabbagh. Radio of Damascus, 22/6/1979

2- Islamic parties and movements: edited by Faysal Darrage & Jamal Barout. (Arabic)

3- Statements of Muslim Brotherhood in Syria (24th June 1979 - 1st October 1979) (Arabic)

4- The struggle for power in Syria. Nikolas Van Dam (English)

5- Islamic struggle revolution in Syria : Omar abdul-Hakim (Arabic)

6- Without Frontiers programme 7th July 1999, Aljazeera Channel (Arabic Video)





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Pro-reform Saudi scribe arrested
by
Wednesday 17 March 2004 4:25 PM GMT
Saudi security services have arrested a journalist who criticised the arrest a day earlier of a group of Saudi reformers, three of whom have since been released.
Speaking to Aljazeera on Tuesday, Abderrahman al-Lahem, who is based in Saudi, had said the arrest of the reformers was "contrary to the law".
He advocated "freedom of expression, a priority for economic reform" envisaged by the authorities.
Sources close to the reformers on Wednesday said Saudi security forces had arrested some 10 reformers since Tuesday, including academics who were among 116 signatories to a petition to the government in December calling for transforming the kingdom into a constitutional monarchy.
Release
The sources added that three of the reformers had been released on Wednesday while the rest were still in detention.
They named the three as Khaled al-Hamid and Adnan Al-Shakhs, both academics, as well as Abdul Rab Abu Khamseen, an activist.
An official with the Saudi interior minister confirmed the arrest "of a limited number of individuals for questioning about statements they issued that do not serve national unity and the social fabric built on the rules of Islam," said the official SPA news agency.
The official provided no further details of the number or identity of those arrested.
AFP
By
You can find this article at:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/2579DBB0-414D-4360-B913-FAB54A47673F.htm

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