Chairman Hubbard?
The right man to replace Greenspan.
No one expected the Federal Reserve to change interest rates at their policy-setting meeting yesterday, so the monetary moment may seem a little low drama. But a huge monetary question is churning through the Washington rumor-mill with increasing velocity: Will the 79-year-old Alan Greenspan accept renomination as Fed chairman when President Bush offers it to him this summer?
Bush has made his decision clear. Greenspan has not. Observers have remarked on the Fed chairman's unusually active speech-making agenda in recent months. For a senior citizen he has a lot of energy for the rubber-chicken circuit, raising eyebrows that something is up.
More, he's been vocal on a number of wide-ranging topics: He has defended his approach to the stock market bubble, advised reducing Social Security benefits, relentlessly attacked Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac, passionately supported free trade in the face of a silly-season political assault on so-called jobs outsourcing, and argued -- in an unusually zealous manner -- that new spending restraint and economic growth (not tax increases) are the best ways to solve the post-9/11 budget deficit.
It's almost as though the Fed chairman is making a victory lap, one that will secure him a positive historical legacy after a 17-year, four-term run as chairman of the most powerful economic agency in the world.
Technically, Greenspan's chairmanship must end in 2006, when his seat on the Federal Reserve board expires. So if he were to accept renomination for an unprecedented fifth term, he would only be eligible for 2 more years. But will he take it? No one knows.
Conventional thinking has Greenspan departing in 2006 and Bush appointing Harvard economist Martin Feldstein as his successor. The former Reagan economic adviser has strong ties to the administration, dating back to Papa Bush and extending through Bush Jr.'s presidential run, when he sat on the campaign's economic-policy committee. Since then he has frequently briefed both the president and vice president. As president of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a prolific writer, he enjoys considerable credibility inside the economic establishment.
But the recent Washington buzz is not about Feldstein -- it concerns former Bush II economic adviser Glenn Hubbard.
Hubbard returned to his teaching post at Columbia University last year after authoring the best supply-side tax cut enacted in 20 years, one that dramatically reignited both the stock market and economic growth. While in Washington, the 45-year-old Hubbard showed himself to be an adept inside player. His tax-cutting views overwhelmed the hapless former Treasury man Paul O'Neill. He even outlasted Bush adviser Lawrence Lindsey in the dramatic shakeup that followed the 2002 midterm elections. Hubbard emerged as the principal Bush administration spokesperson and communicator. In numerous television appearances he proved himself to be an unyielding free-market advocate. In congressional hearings his political ear was uniquely sensitive.
Like Greenspan, Hubbard understands the crucial interaction between monetary and fiscal policy -- an essential function for any Fed chair. Lower tax rates that spur economic growth require an accommodative Fed to create efficient liquidity that will fund new work and investment incentives. This is exactly what Greenspan did nearly a year ago when the Fed eased policy once the Bush tax cuts were signed into law. In private conversations Hubbard has indicated he would have done the same.
Supply-side doctrine -- synthesized by Nobelist Robert Mundell and economist Arthur Laffer -- has always emphasized that lower marginal tax rates increase liquidity demands while higher taxes reduce them. The Fed must react accordingly -- although Greenspan has not always done so.
Ten years ago, the estimable Greenspan properly tightened policy following passage of the Clinton tax hikes, which removed growth incentives and would have left an inflationary overhang of excess money. But his biggest mistake came in 2000, when he met a non-inflationary and liquidity-hungry economy (one that followed capital-gains tax cuts and was driven by a remarkable high-tech productivity surge) with a dearth of money. As the Fed tightened relentlessly, the long bull-market economic run was destroyed.
Greenspan has clearly learned from that mistake. So has Hubbard.
A money manager recently told me about a call he placed to a prominent speakers bureau in Washington. The investor requested Martin Feldstein, but the speech broker said, "Don't you know that everyone down here is talking about Glenn Hubbard as a replacement for Alan Greenspan?"
During the early Reagan years, Feldstein wandered far off the reservation in a panic over budget deficits. He started publicly opposing the president by recommending tax increases. Many supply-siders have never forgiven him. As George W. Bush ponders a second-term agenda that includes reduced tax burdens on capital formation, private investment accounts for Social Security, and legislation to make his first-term tax cuts permanent, surely he will want a sound thinker running the central bank.

-- Larry Kudlow, NRO's Economics Editor, is CEO of Kudlow & Co. and host with Jim Cramer of CNBC's Kudlow & Cramer.
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In Awkward Dance, GOP Embraces Both Deficit Reduction and Tax Cut
By Alan Fram Associated Press Writer
Published: Mar 17, 2004
WASHINGTON (AP) - Congressional Republicans are engaged in a complicated political two-step, pursuing both tax cuts and deficit reduction in an election year when record federal shortfalls are starting to draw the public's attention.
Ignoring Democrats and deficit hawks who said the two policies are contradictory, the GOP-run House Budget Committee embraced both goals Wednesday by approving a pair of measures.
The committee, by voice vote, approved a bill making it harder for lawmakers to expand benefits for programs such as Medicare unless they are paid for with spending cuts. Unlike the Senate-passed version, tax cuts would not have to be paid for, protecting a priority that President Bush and GOP lawmakers have retained even as this year's deficit nears an unprecedented $500 billion.
"New spending and new tax cuts are not equivalent. New spending does not help maximize economic growth and tax cuts do," said Rep. Patrick Toomey, R-Pa.
By a party-line 24-19 vote, the committee also approved a $2.41 trillion budget for 2005. The spending plan largely follows the outline Bush proposed last month. But it distances House Republicans from the White House by proposing faster deficit reduction, smaller tax cuts and lower spending than the president sought.
The conflicting strains - erasing red ink yet reducing federal revenues, endorsing Bush priorities while recasting them - underscore the tricky terrain Republicans must tread as they try to retain the White House, House and Senate in November's elections.
The loss of 2.2 million jobs since Bush took office in 2001 means they need a plan for invigorating the economy. Their chief answer has been tax cuts which appeal to the GOP's conservative and business supporters.
Yet many Republicans have become disenchanted as deficits have spun out of control. Many in the party like the idea of clamping down on spending, but omitting tax cuts from the requirement for budget savings has rankled GOP deficit hawks, raising questions about whether it will garner enough votes to pass the narrowly divided Congress.
"I'm not sure reducing taxes and cutting deficits are necessarily corollaries of each other," said moderate Rep. Michael Castle, R-Del.
Democrats hope to use the red ink as a sign of Bush's inability to manage the economy and create jobs. They mock the GOP proposal to require savings for expanded spending, but not tax cuts, as a half-measure aimed more at protecting Bush's tax agenda than reducing red ink.
"What you're doing is ignoring the elephant in the room," said Rep. John Spratt, D-S.C., referring to the exemption of tax cuts. "This is a dodge."
"They've created a mess, and now they're trying to cover their flanks," said Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill., a budget committee member.
Until they expired in 2002 after a dozen years, budget controls required lawmakers to find savings for any tax cuts or expanded benefit payments.
But that was a compromise from an era when the White House and Congress were held by different parties. With the GOP controlling both branches of government, most of its members - including Bush, House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn. - have no interest in renewing those strictures for tax cuts.
The House budget panel rejected a Democratic effort to impose the restrictions on tax cuts, also by a party-line, 24-18 vote.
Last week, Democrats teamed with GOP moderates to force through the Senate a measure applying the requirement to spending boosts and tax reductions. It would let tax cuts or spending increases go unpaid for if 60 of the 100 senators would vote accordingly.
Under the House plan, most benefit programs - excluding Social Security - would be automatically cut if increases for those programs were enacted but not paid for.
The prospects for a final House-Senate compromise are uncertain.
The House committee's budget would hold most domestic programs to the same levels as last year and give Bush the boosts he wants for defense and domestic security. Republicans defeated Democratic efforts to add spending for emergency workers and veterans while trimming tax cuts.
The budget would allow $138 billion in five-year tax cuts - including renewals of popular, expiring breaks for married couples and families with children and the expanded 10 percent tax bracket. But it would ignore Bush's effort to make permanent other tax cuts expiring later this decade, the bulk of the $1.3 trillion in 10-year tax reductions he proposed last month.
The House plan also claims to halve this year's expected record $477 billion deficit in four years, a year sooner than Bush proposed.
Like Bush's budget and a similar plan approved by the Senate last week, most deficit reduction comes not from budget cuts; rather, an assumption that a strengthening economy will produce extra federal revenue.
The budget sets guidelines for spending and taxes for the year and leaves actual changes in revenues and expenditures for later legislation.

AP-ES-03-17-04 1858EST

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What Iraqi "Resistance"?
"Occupation? This is a liberation."
By Steven Vincent
BAGHDAD -- You probably haven't heard much about it, but around a month ago, a U.S. military base near Ramadi in the Sunni Triangle came under a mortar attack. The Americans responded with artillery, accidentally lobbing several rounds into the town itself, damaging homes, destroying livestock, but killing no civilians. Seeking to make amends, an officer went to the affected area, where he encountered a group of Iraqis armed -- not with AK-47s or RPGs -- but a lawyer preparing property-damage claims. After some negotiations, the officer agreed to compensate town residents with $70,000. "We're glad this happened," the Ramadians informed the soldier. "This way we got to know you Americans better" -- and, not incidentally, emerge from the mishap substantially wealthier.
Not every resident of the Sunni Triangle is so easily swayed by dollars, of course, but this incident -- witnessed by Steve Mumford, a journalist friend of mine -- highlights a major tactic America is using to quell anti-Coalition sentiment in the region. With direct payouts of greenbacks to aggrieved Sunnis -- or, more commonly, to tribal sheiks who then exert influence over their members -- the U.S. is literally purchasing peace and acceptance among the populace. Attacks still occur -- an IED killed a soldier near Baquba recently -- but increasing numbers of Iraqis seem more interested in American currency than American casualties. "We're simply outspending the bad guys," remarks my journalist friend. Or, as Andy Warhol once said about art, it's all about the money, honey.
I think about the army's protection payments each time I encounter news reports that attribute anti-Coalition violence to the so-called Iraqi "resistance." I picture people back home hearing about "guerrillas" and "insurgents" and thinking that America is once again fighting cadres of dedicated revolutionaries. I see them recalling the nightmare of Vietnam and sense the word "quagmire" lurking in the back of their minds. And I remember a woman in New York saying to me after my first trip to Iraq, "Why are we there? The resistance shows that Iraqis don't want us occupying their country." And I get very, very angry.
For the truth is, there is no Iraqi "resistance." Not, at least, in the traditional manner evoked by the word: a disciplined insurgency intent on seizing control of an unpopular government. In the same sense, there are no "guerrillas" forming a national liberation front on behalf of an oppressed people. Instead, Iraq is plagued by a volatile mixture of criminal gangs, tribal gunmen, and humiliated Saddamites who, for inscrutable and often conflicting reasons, pay impoverished farmers to plant roadside bombs that kill more civilians that Coalition soldiers -- and who, if the price is right, will cease their "insurgency." The country also suffers from foreign-born Islamofascists who target Iraq's Shia population in hopes of rekindling a 14-century-old sectarian war. Listening to the BBC talk of Iraqi "rebels," or reading Reuters' claptrap about "guerrilla forces," I wonder -- is there another conflict going on in this country I'm not aware of?
As I've written here before, a trip through the Sunni Triangle reveals that anti-Coalition forces lack such presumed requirements of a "resistance" movement as identifiable leaders, goals, demands, ideology, propaganda -- even a name. My journalist friend reports that military forces around Tikrit recently picked up children who were paid to paint walls with anti-American slogans. What kind of "resistance," you have to ask, needs to pay kids to scrawl its graffiti? As for the foreign terrorists, since al Qaeda began this war with a plan for pan-Islamic world domination, shouldn't the Coalition be considered the "resistance?" But that, of course, would mess with the media's conception of Iraqi "rebels" somehow involved in a righteous insurrection -- as if Baby Boomer journalists were nostalgic for the anti-imperialist struggles of their youths.
Certainly Iraqis don't see the "resistance" in such a sentimental light. Public opinion of the fedayeen and Mafia-like crime lords in the Sunni Triangle ranges from anger to contempt. "Sixty percent of the Sunnis are criminal followers of Saddam Hussein," asserts Farman Hamid, director of the Office of Human Rights in Kirkuk. "They create problems in Iraq because they have no door to the future." Argues Basran shopowner Ghattan Mohammad, "This resistance' does not fight for Iraq, only for itself."
Even in prickly Baghdad, you find similar reactions. "We keep telling the Sunnis that they are not serving their people by attacking U.S. soldiers -- Iraq's future lies with America," says Abdul Mashtaq, a director of the Iraqi Human Rights Organization. "We are proud to help the Americans in the Sunni Triangle," proclaims sheik Ali Nsayief, of the Baghdad Council of Confederated Tribes. "What kind of resistance' kills seven civilians for every U.S. soldier, then sabotages our electricity?" asks Samir Adil, head of the Worker's Communist Party. "Ninety-five percent of Iraqis do not believe in this 'resistance.'"
The unfavorability rating of foreign-born mujihedeen is even higher -- as I discovered in Basra this when I found myself stopped innumerable times by police, private security guards, and religious militiamen suspicious of my foreign appearance. "We apologize," one hotel manager said after his staff seized me in the building's lobby and took apart my bag before assuring themselves that I was American. "But Iraq is at war with the terrorists."
And therein lies my main beef with the press's use of terms like as "resistance," "guerrillas," "rebels" -- even "insurgents." By evoking the revolutionary conflicts of the last century -- and such boomer heroes as Che, Fidel, and Uncle Ho -- the media bestows legitimacy on anti-Coalition fighters that the psychopaths, black marketeers and religious fanatics neither deserve nor enjoy in Iraq. This, in turn, denies the heroism of the Iraqi people themselves: They are the true "resistance force," fighting to prevent antidemocratic forces from pitching their nation in chaos and civil war. But all this is lost on a queasy American electorate who, hearing the words "occupation" and "resistance," fears that Uncle Sam is once more acting as an imperialist oppressor. After all, the war is really about Halliburton contracts and oil, right?
How should we describe this conflict? First, we might follow the example of some Baghdadi diners I recently overheard who, when asked how they viewed the "occupation," replied, "Occupation? This is a liberation." The Coalition is a liberating power. This way, should you find yourself, as I did, talking to an anti-American lawyer in Baquba, who states "My country has been occupied by a foreign power, of course I must resist" -- you need only replace "occupied" with "liberated" to understand the pathetic quality of the ex-Baathist's patriotism and the true nature of his goals.
We might then exchange the term "guerrilla fighters" -- and its association with left-wing (and therefore "progressive") insurrections -- for the more accurate word "paramilitaries." "Paramilitaries" conjures images of anonymous killers terrorizing a populace in the name of a repressive regime -- pretty much what the fedayeen and jihadists are doing in Iraq. And while we're at it, we could end U.S.-centric press reports that describe every rocket attack or suicide bombing as a "setback to the American occupation...." These are setbacks to the Iraqi people, who are struggling to resist the paramilitary murderers and terrorists valorized by our media. Actually, if we really want to conform press coverage to the true nature of anti-Coalition forces, we should replace the word "resistance " with "reactionary criminal aggressors" -- or better yet, "fascists." It smacks of Soviet-style propaganda, I admit, but that's okay. The Communists may have been wrong about dialectical materialism, but -- unlike today's Western media -- they knew a brown shirt when they saw one.

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La "fili?re marocaine" en ligne de mire au Maroc
LEMONDE.FR | 17.03.04 | 18h22
Selon une source du gouvernement marocain, Rabat avait alert? Madrid en juin 2003 du retour en Espagne de Jamal Zougam, Marocain de Tanger ?g? de 30 ans, l'un des principaux suspects arr?t?s, mettant en garde sur son appartenance ? Al-Qaida.
Rabat est loin d'?tre inactive dans sa lutte contre les islamistes sur son territoire, leurs ramifications internationales - la "fili?re marocaine" - ?tant mises en cause dans plusieurs enqu?tes antiterroristes, dont celle li?e aux attentats de Madrid.
Soup?onn? d'?tre le vivier de terroristes ayant particip? aux grands attentats des derni?res ann?es - des attaques du 11 septembre 2001 aux Etats-Unis ? celle de Madrid jeudi -, le Maroc a aussi ?t? la cible d'attentats commis par ses propres citoyens, comme ? Casablanca le 16 mai 2003 (45 morts).
De vastes enqu?tes polici?res et judiciaires ont ?t? lanc?e dans les milieux islamistes au lendemain de ces attentats. Et une nouvelle loi antiterroriste avait ?t? adopt?e imm?diatement apr?s le 16 mai. Dans ce cadre, plus d'un millier d'islamistes ont ?t? interpell?s. Des dizaines de proc?s ont donn? lieu ? 16 peines de mort et ? de tr?s lourdes peines de prison, le plus souvent pour "pr?paration d'actes terroristes". Dans la plupart des actes d'accusation, appara?t le nom du mouvement int?griste Salafia Djihadia (salafisme combattant).
Les interpellations et les proc?s sont actuellement moins m?diatis?s, mais ils se poursuivent ? un rythme soutenu, selon tous les t?moignages recueillis. Une source polici?re a ainsi indiqu? ? l'AFP que quelque 200 arrestations ont eu lieu dans les milieux int?gristes depuis le d?but de l'ann?e 2004, dont 90 int?gristes qui fr?quentaient une m?me mosqu?e ? Tanger - la ville dont est originaire Jamal Zougam, l'un des principaux suspects dans les attentats de Madrid.
TH?SES EXTR?MISTES ET MOSQU?ES
La tuerie de Madrid a conduit au renforcement de la coop?ration s?curitaire entre le Maroc et l'Espagne, avec un ?change d'enqu?teurs de divers services de police. Les experts venus d'Espagne examinent ? la loupe les r?sultats des enqu?tes men?es apr?s les attentats de Casablanca, ? la recherche de recoupements utiles, a indiqu? une source marocaine.
Le Maroc, qui s'efforce aussi de suivre les activit?s des islamistes marocains install?s ? l'?tranger, a fait savoir qu'il avait mis en garde l'Espagne en juin 2003 sur la pr?sence ? Madrid du Tang?rois Jamal Zougam, attirant l'attention sur ses liens avec le r?seau Al-Qaida.
Les autorit?s marocaines s'efforcent aussi de lutter contre la propagation de th?ses extr?mistes via les mosqu?es, notamment dans les quartiers pauvres des grandes villes - tel que celui de Sidi Moumen, ? la p?riph?rie de Casablanca, d'o? ?taient issus les kamikazes du 16 mai 2003.
D?but f?vrier, une r?organisation du minist?re marocain charg? des affaires islamiques a ?t? d?cid?e pr?cis?ment dans ce but, selon des analyses parues dans la presse marocaine. Une nouvelle direction des mosqu?es a notamment ?t? mise en place pour veiller au suivi des programmes de pr?dication, superviser la construction des mosqu?es et assurer les formations pour les imams. "La principale mission de la direction des mosqu?es sera d'assurer un contr?le efficace des pr?ches, essentiellement ceux du vendredi", avait estim? l'universitaire Mohamed Darif, sp?cialiste des mouvements islamistes.
Avec AFP


A Tanger, l'immeuble de la famille Zougam est devenu un objet de curiosit?
LE MONDE | 17.03.04 | 13h01
Le principal suspect des attentats de Madrid n'?tait "pas sp?cialement religieux", selon ses proches
Tanger de notre envoy?e sp?ciale
C'est une rue propre et tranquille, bord?e d'immeubles ann?es 1940 et de petites villas avec jardins : la rue Benaliem, dans le vieux quartier Marshan, voisin de la m?dina historique, est ? des ann?es-lumi?re des faubourgs mis?reux de Tanger. Ici, vit une population de condition modeste, mais suffisamment riche, malgr? tout. L'immeuble de la famille Zougam, commer?ants de p?re en fils, plus connue aujourd'hui par Jamal Zougam, le principal suspect des attentats de Madrid, se rep?re de loin. Ce mardi 16 mars, des policiers en civil, portant vestes en cuir noir et cravates, font le pied de grue devant le num?ro 19, afin de contr?ler les journalistes qui viennent aux nouvelles.
L'appartement des Zougam, situ? au rez-de-chauss?e - on le reconna?t ? ses volets gris, tous ferm?s - n'a pas encore ?t? perquisitionn?. Mais il est d?j? devenu un objet de curiosit?. "La famille a quitt? Tanger pour Madrid, quand Jamal avait dix ou douze ans. Ils revenaient tous les ?t?s au mois d'ao?t - Jamal aussi", assure un habitant de l'immeuble, un vieil homme en pantoufles, qui dit ne "toujours pas arriver ? y croire". Jamal Zougam, un terroriste ? "On l'a connu tout petit...", soupire-t-il, incr?dule. "C'?tait un fils du quartier !", rench?rit le mokkadem (vigile officieux, charg? de surveiller le quartier). Jamal Zougam "portait la barbe" et il "avait sa voiture", ajoute le voisin en pantoufles. "Sauf que, l'?t? dernier, il n'est rest? que deux jours et il ?tait ras?", corrige le mokkadem.
LE PLUS JEUNE DU TRIO
Une voisine en djellaba s'en m?le : "C'est normal qu'il ne soit pass? que deux jours. La famille a pr?f?r? passer l'?t? sur la plage, ? camper. Du coup, on ne les a pas vus." Elle aussi a ?t? "stup?faite" d'apprendre que ce fils de famille, "tout ce qu'il y a de normal" et "pas sp?cialement religieux", puisse ?tre aujourd'hui soup?onn? d'?tre l'un des poseurs de bombe de Madrid. "Ce n'est pas ici, mais en Espagne, qu'il est devenu ce qu'on dit. C'est l?-bas qu'il a grandi. A Tanger, il venait seulement pour les vacances", plaide-t-elle, la voix pleine d'inqui?tude.
Ag? de trente ans, Jamal Zougam - arr?t? et d?tenu ? Madrid - est le plus jeune du trio tang?rois soup?onn? d'?tre impliqu? dans le massacre du 11 mars.
Mohammed Chaoui (34 ans) est "son demi-fr?re", pr?cisent les voisins de la rue Benaliem, les deux hommes ayant "la m?me m?re". Quant au troisi?me comparse, Mohamed Bekkali (31 ans), bien que natif de T?touan, il a grandi dans le quartier tang?rois de B?ni Makada - "fief de la pauvret? et de l'islam", selon l'expression locale.
"Les in?galit?s sociales n'ont cess? de s'aggraver depuis ces quinze derni?res ann?es. Pourtant, ? aucun moment, ne s'est exprim?e une volont? politique pour donner une chance aux jeunes, estime le journaliste Jamal Amiar. On en voit le r?sultat. Aujourd'hui, dans le nord du Maroc, l'extr?misme se manifeste de deux fa?ons : certains choisissent la patera -barque, en espagnol ; par extension, l'?migration clandestine dans des embarcations de fortune- ; d'autres se lancent dans l'extr?misme politique, l'int?grisme et le terrorisme."
Selon le patron de l'hebdomadaire Les Nouvelles du Nord, la proximit? de la r?gion nord du Maroc avec le sud de l'Espagne - "on est ? moins d'une heure d'avion de Casablanca, comme de Madrid"- expliquerait bien des frustrations.
Il n'est qu'? fl?ner dans les rues de Tanger, o? caf?s, restaurants et salons de th? s'appellent l'Eldorado, Mexique, San Francisco, Le Petit Berlin, Oslo ou San Remo, pour mesurer la nostalgie d'un cosmopolitisme autrefois bien r?el et l'attrait toujours tenace pour l'Occident et ses mirages.
La pr?sence, massive et ostensible, de fourgons et de policiers dans les rues de Tanger ne semble pas compl?tement rassurer la population. "Si ceux qui ont commis les attentats de Madrid sont les m?mes que ceux de Casablanca -le 16 mai 2003-, c'est que quelque chose ne va pas dans notre appareil administratif en g?n?ral et dans notre mani?re de g?rer la s?curit? en particulier", remarque Jamal Amiar, fustigeant p?le-m?le "la corruption, le copinage, le laxisme et l'?-peu-pr?s, qui sont encore, h?las ! la r?gle au Maroc."
Catherine Simon

* ARTICLE PARU DANS L'EDITION DU 18.03.04

La communaut? marocaine craint "les repr?sailles"
LE MONDE | 17.03.04 | 13h01
Madrid de notre envoy? sp?cial
La plus grande partie des "r?fugi?s ?conomiques" du Maroc - qu'ils quittent le plus souvent, au p?ril de leurs vies, ? bord des pateras (barques) qui traversent de nuit le d?troit de Gibraltar - travaillent, avec ou sans papiers, en Catalogne et en Andalousie. Mais ils seraient de 100 000 ? 300 000, selon les sources, ? r?sider ? Madrid ou dans sa r?gion.
Le choc provoqu? par l'annonce de l'implication d'un r?seau marocain dans le massacre du 11 mars, qui a fait 201 morts et 1 500 bless?s ? Madrid, semble particuli?rement vif parmi la population immigr?e musulmane dont certains membres redouteraient d'?tre l'objet de "repr?sailles". Pour l'heure, aucun incident n'a ?t? signal? et, dans le quartier de Lavapi?s, le plus multiculturel de Madrid, aucune tension particuli?re n'est perceptible.
Une Alg?rienne qui r?side au c?ur de ce quartier et milite pour les droits des femmes du Maghreb - dont pr?s d'un tiers seraient sans papiers - indique pourtant que plusieurs femmes portant le foulard lui ont confi? avoir observ? un changement de regard de la part de certains passants d?s le lendemain des attentats, alors que la piste islamiste n'?tait encore qu'une hypoth?se.
"Je ne crains pas d'explosions x?nophobes, pr?cise-t-elle aussit?t, car je pense que les Espagnols, fondamentalement g?n?reux, ne sont pas aussi racistes qu'on le dit parfois, m?me si le discours anti-immigration d?velopp? par le gouvernement depuis quatre ans a d? laisser des traces dans les esprits. Le plus grave, selon moi, est le r?le de la t?l?vision publique, la t?l?-basuras (ordures), qui ne propose jamais le moindre d?bat, la moindre analyse, et utilise r?guli?rement le mot "islamistas" au lieu de "musulmanas"."
Cette m?me militante dit avoir observ?, ces deux derni?res ann?es, une transformation de Lavapi?s en "ghetto ethnique"par l'afflux d'immigr?s indiens, pakistanais et bengalis, mais aussi chinois ou s?n?galais. "Dans le m?me temps, j'ai pu remarquer certains glissements dans les tenues vestimentaires, une augmentation du nombre d'hommes portant la barbe ou de restaurants cessant brusquement de servir de l'alcool. Il est ind?niable qu'un certain pros?lytisme int?griste tente de s'enraciner dans la vie quotidienne."
AL-QAIDA, LE PIRE ENNEMI
Youssouf Fernandez, porte-parole de la F?d?ration des entit?s islamiques, un Espagnol converti ? l'islam, se d?clare "naturellement horrifi? par les attentats du 11 mars" et souligne qu'il avait d?j? "tr?s fortement d?nonc? les attaques du 11 septembre"contre les tours de New York. "Nous pensons qu'Al-Qaida est le pire ennemi du monde musulman, affirme-t-il, et nous n'avons donc pas la moindre affinit? id?ologique avec ces gens-l?." M. Fernandez ne craint pas trop d'?ventuelles violences contre la communaut? musulmane, mais il redoute que "quelques cercles de pouvoir profitent de la situation pour tenter de faire passer des lois plus dures contre l'immigration. Or, lorsqu'on refuse toute r?gularisation pour les sans-papiers, ce n'est pas les terroristes que l'on atteint mais les immigr?s".
Egalement "atterr?" par les attentats, Mustapha Al-Mrabet, pr?sident de l'Association des travailleurs et immigrants marocains en Espagne (Atime), affirme, pour sa part, que, le jour de la trag?die, son organisation a commenc? ? recevoir des appels de menace ou d'insulte, tandis que certains de ses amis se faisaient traiter de "Moros asesinos" -Maures assassins-. "On ?prouve une certaine inqui?tude qu'on ne veut pas exag?rer et on a donc lanc? un appel au calme ? nos adh?rents en leur demandant de ne surtout pas r?pondre ? des provocations."
Robert Belleret

* ARTICLE PARU DANS L'EDITION DU 18.03.04
Jamal Zougam, l'homme au centre de l'enqu?te
LE MONDE | 16.03.04 | 12h43
Cit? dans l'enqu?te du juge Baltasar Garzon, Jamal Zougam est connu des services de renseignements tant en France qu'en Espagne. N? ? Tanger le 5 octobre 1973 dans un quartier pauvre, il n'?tait apparemment qu'un "second couteau" dans la cellule d'Al-Qaida d?mantel?e par le magistrat espagnol au mois de novembre 2001. Une quarantaine d'arrestations avaient ?t? effectu?es, mais seulement douze des personnes interpell?es ont ?t? inculp?es et se trouvent actuellement en d?tention pr?ventive.
Jamal Zougam fut rel?ch? sans qu'aucune charge ne soit relev?e ? son encontre. A son domicile de Madrid, les enqu?teurs avaient trouv? dans son agenda un certain nombre de num?ros de t?l?phone, dont celui du chef pr?sum? de la cellule d'Al-Qaida, Imad Eddin Barakat Yarkas, alias Abou Dahdah. Les ?coutes ont permis de savoir que Jamal Zougam avait t?l?phon? ? ce dernier le 5 septembre 2001.
Furent ?galement saisies dans son appartement des cassettes vid?o sur la lutte arm?e au Daghestan dans lesquelles apparaissent plusieurs noms, dont ceux d'Abou Moughen (Salaheddin Benyaich) et Abdelaziz Benyaich, tous deux connus comme "les fr?res afghans" pour leur combat men? aux c?t?s des talibans. Tous deux sont emprisonn?s, l'un en Espagne, l'autre au Maroc, en relation avec les attentats de Casablanca.
Il n'a pas ?t? ?tabli si Jamal Zougam a particip? ? la fameuse r?union de Tarragone, en juillet 2001, au cours de laquelle furent coordonn?s les attentats du 11 septembre et ? laquelle particip?rent notamment Mohammed Atta et le Y?m?nite Ramzi Ben Al-Chaiba. Cependant, il semble bien qu'il connaissait certains des protagonistes, notamment Amer Azizi, dont le num?ro de t?l?phone figurait dans son agenda.
En revanche, Jamal Zougam a s?journ? au Maroc avant les attentats de Casablanca qui ont eu lieu le 16 mai. Il est rentr? en Espagne au mois d'avril. Etait-il dans l'un des trains qui ont explos? le 11 mars ? Madrid, comme l'affirment deux t?moins, selon El Pais ?
Les enqu?teurs essaient de l'?tablir, comme ils tentent de retracer l'itin?raire de cet homme arr?t? en compagnie de Mohammed Chaoui, qui serait son demi-fr?re et qui, lui aussi, r?sidait dans le quartier populaire de Lavapi?s. Tous deux auraient ?t? recrut?s par les fr?res Benyaich, dont les liens avec Abou Moussa Al-Zarkaoui sont, para?t-il, av?r?s.
Michel B?le-Richard

* ARTICLE PARU DANS L'EDITION DU 17.03.04

Madrid et Rabat veulent tourner la page des ann?es de crise
LE MONDE | 16.03.04 | 12h43
Les relations avec le Maroc seront "une priorit?" de la politique ext?rieure espagnole, a d?clar?, lundi 15 mars, au cours d'une conf?rence de presse, Jos? Luis Rodriguez Zapatero. Et le futur pr?sident du gouvernement espagnol d'ajouter : "Je suis convaincu que nous allons ouvrir une ?tape de bonnes relations (. ..). Nous sommes deux pays voisins, avec d'intenses relations historiques, avec des int?r?ts ?conomi-ques et culturels. Il va de soi que nous avons besoin d'une bonne relation."
Comme en ?cho ? ces bonnes dispositions des socialistes espagnols, qui devraient se traduire par une prochaine visite de M. Zapatero ? Rabat, les autorit?s marocaines se pr?parent ? r?pondre par un geste symbolique fort. Alors que juifs et chr?tiens se retrouveront mardi apr?s-midi ? la cath?drale de Rabat pour une c?r?monie ? la m?moire des victimes des attentats de Madrid, le roi Mohammed VI pourrait participer ? la c?r?monie, laisse-t-on entendre dans la capitale du royaume.
Que les responsables marocains aient invit? des journalistes espagnols ? venir couvrir l'?v?nement t?moigne que l'op?ration a aussi un objectif politique ? un moment o? le gouvernement espagnol change de couleur politique.
Paradoxalement, le Maroc entretient de meilleures relations avec une Espagne gouvern?e par la gauche que par la droite. Ce qui ?tait vrai du temps de Hassan II et du socialiste Felipe Gonzalez, l'est rest? avec le couple Mohammed VI-Jos? Maria Aznar, particuli?rement au cours de la seconde l?gislature de celui-ci.
Les sujets de friction entre les deux pays n'ont pas manqu?. Le plus s?rieux a ?t? l'affaire de l'?lot Persil (Perejil), minuscule ?lot inhabit?, sous contr?le espagnol mais pos? ? quelques centaines de m?tres des c?tes du nord du royaume ch?rifien. Les gendarmes marocains l'ont investi par surprise en juillet 2002 avant de s'en faire chasser, quelques jours plus tard, par les militaires espagnols.
Du coup, il faudra attendre l'ann?e 2003 pour que les rela-tions diplomatiques entre les deux pays connaissent un d?gel suffisant pour d?boucher, quelques mois plus tard, sur une visite de Jos? Maria Aznar ? Rabat. Mais les retrouvailles furent des plus ti?des.
Le Sahara occidental a ?galement ?t? le pr?texte de plusieurs crispations diplomatiques. Rabat a fait de la r?cup?ration du Sahara occidental la priorit? de sa diplomatie. Or, autant la France s'est align?e sur le Maroc et a fait sien le principe de la "marocanit?" des "provinces du Sud" - ce qui revient ? ent?riner l'int?gration au royaume ch?rifien du Sahara occidental -, autant l'Espagne, l'ancienne puissance coloniale dans la r?gion, d?fend une position moins partisane privil?giant une m?diation des Nations unies.
La recrudescence de l'arriv?e d'immigrants ill?gaux partis du Maroc a ajout? au contentieux. Pour Madrid, si des milliers de Marocains ou de Subsahariens tentent, au p?ril de leur vie, de rejoindre le territoire espagnol, soit depuis les c?tes du Sahara occidental (en direction des ?les Canaries), soit depuis le nord du royaume, c'est d'abord parce que les autorit?s marocaines laissent faire quand elles ne se rendent pas complices des passeurs. Les images de cadavres de candidats ? l'?migration ?chou?s sur les c?tes espagnoles n'a pas peu fait pour d?grader l'image du Maroc de l'autre c?t? de la M?diterran?e
De fa?on paradoxale, ces crises ? r?p?tition, ces successions de brouilles n'ont pas pes? sur les relations ?conomiques entre les deux pays, qui sont satisfaisantes. Avec quelque 700 entreprises install?es au Maroc et pr?s de 2 milliards d'euros d'exportations annuelles (sans compter la contrebande tr?s active via Ceuta et Melilla), Madrid reste, derri?re la France, un partenaire ?conomique majeur du royaume ch?rifien.
Jean-Pierre Tuquoi

* ARTICLE PARU DANS L'EDITION DU 17.03.04

10 000 condamn?s ? mort seraient ex?cut?s chaque ann?e en Chine
LE MONDE | 17.03.04 | 13h01
Dix mille personnes sont condamn?es et ex?cut?es en Chine chaque ann?e. Cette information, qui ?mane d'un d?put? chinois, constitue un pr?c?dent : jamais un chiffre semi-officiel sur la peine capitale n'avait ?t? publi? en Chine. La teneur de cet aveu va par ailleurs au-del? des estimations sur les chiffres d'ex?cutions g?n?ralement publi?s par les organisations ind?pendantes de d?fense des droits de l'homme.
Dans l'?dition de fin de semaine du Quotidien de la jeunesse de Chine, Chen Zhonglin, le d?l?gu? de la municipalit? de Chongqing, dans le Sud-Ouest, vient en effet de d?clarer qu'il "y a environ chaque ann?e 10 000 cas de peine de mort suivis d'ex?cutions imm?diates, soit cinq fois plus que tous les autres pays combin?s".
Consid?r?e comme le pays qui a le plus recours ? la peine capitale, la Chine avait jusque-l? maintenu le secret sur le nombre d'ex?cutions qui ont lieu chaque ann?e sur son territoire. Il arrive que les autorit?s fassent publiquement ?tat de la mise ? mort de trafiquants de drogue, de cadres corrompus ou de tueurs en s?rie, mais celles-ci sont loin de repr?senter le nombre total de condamn?s ? mort pass?s par les armes.
Amnesty International elle-m?me n'avait d?nombr? pour l'ann?e 2002 "que" 1 060 ex?cutions publiquement annonc?es, m?me si l'organisation des droits de l'homme bas?e ? Londres affirmait que ce chiffre ?tait sous-?valu? par rapport ? la r?alit?. L'association internationale contre la peine de mort Hands off Cain avait de son c?t? estim? qu'il y en avait eu plus de 3 000 la m?me ann?e.
"B?N?FIQUE AU D?VELOPPEMENT"
En 1987, Amnesty affirmait que plus de 6 000 personnes avaient ?t? ex?cut?es, soit plus que dans le reste du monde durant la m?me p?riode. Et durant les trois premiers mois de 2001, ? titre de comparaison avec les chiffres que la m?me organisation avance pour l'ann?e suivante, Amnesty soutenait que 1 781 personnes avaient ?t? ex?cut?es en Chine, soit plus que le total des ex?cutions tous pays confondus durant une p?riode semblable...
Une porte-parole du minist?re chinois des affaires ?trang?res avait r?cemment d?clar? que l'application ou le maintien de la peine de mort d?pendait des int?r?ts du pays. "Il faut voir si -la peine capitale- est b?n?fique au d?veloppement g?n?ral et ?conomique du pays, et ? sa stabilit? sociale", avait estim? Mme Zhang Qiyue.
Le m?me d?put? Chen Zhonglin, dans une proposition soumise la semaine derni?re lors de la session annuelle de l'Assembl?e nationale du peuple (ANP), avait sugg?r?, avec une quarantaine d'autres d?put?s, que seule la Cour supr?me, la plus haute juridiction du pays, devrait ?tre autoris?e en dernier ressort ? prononcer la peine de mort. En r?ponse, vient d'indiquer un quotidien de P?kin, le pr?sident de la Cour supr?me a d?clar? qu'il entendait que soient rendus ? cette derni?re "les droits d'approuver et de d?cider de la peine capitale".
D?sormais, le droit de d?cider de la peine de mort est en effet entre les mains des quelque 300 tribunaux locaux, ou cours interm?diaires populaires, r?partis dans les 31 provinces chinoises. Cet appel, pour l'instant th?orique, au retour ? un contr?le de la Cour supr?me sur cette question, r?duirait, soulignent des experts, le nombre de condamn?s ex?cut?s chaque ann?e.
Bruno Philip

* ARTICLE PARU DANS L'EDITION DU 18.03.04

La France et l'Allemagne soutiennent une meilleure coordination entre Europ?ens
LE MONDE | 17.03.04 | 13h01
Bruxelles d?nonce un manque de "volont? politique"
La france et l'Allemagne ont appel? ? leur tour, mardi 16 mars, au renforcement de la coop?ration europ?enne en mati?re de terrorisme. A Paris, au cours d'une conf?rence de presse commune, Jacques Chirac et Gerhard Schr?der ont confirm? que le prochain sommet europ?en, qui se tiendra les 25 et 26 mars ? Bruxelles, examinera les mesures ? prendre pour relancer le plan d'action de l'Union europ?enne contre le terrorisme, adopt? en septembre 2001 au lendemain des attentats de New York et de Washington.
"Toute l'Europe, ind?pendamment de ses d?cisions en mati?re de politique ?trang?re et de s?curit?, est devenue le th??tre d'actes terroristes. Nous devons, ensemble, Europ?ens, faire face ? ce terrorisme et lutter contre lui", a d?clar? le chancelier allemand. Les deux dirigeants ont ?galement insist? sur la n?cessit?, pour lutter efficacement, de s'attaquer aux sources du mal, les conflits et le sous-d?veloppement.
Concr?tement, le pr?sident fran?ais a indiqu? que les Europ?ens devaient, en plus des mesures prises au niveau national, "mieux encore coordonner nos services de renseignement et de police, ainsi que nos justices". Interrog? sur l'id?e d'une agence de renseignement europ?enne, propos?e par l'Autriche, M. Schr?der a jug? qu'une telle hypoth?se "rel?ve encore d'une lointaine th?orie". "Je ne saurais l'exclure, mais pour le moment il faut d'abord et avant tout renforcer la coop?ration des services existants dans la lutte contre le terrorisme", a-t-il dit.
En r?ponse aux critiques sur l'insuffisance des ?changes d'informations entre services nationaux, M. Chirac a estim? que la coop?ration s'?tait "consid?rablement renforc?e depuis un an, un an et demi". Selon lui, "les r?serves que l'on avait l'habitude, historiquement, de conna?tre entre les grands services ont tout ? fait disparu". Ces critiques sont pourtant de plus en plus nombreuses. La cha?ne de t?l?vision publique allemande ARD, ?voquant des sources internes ? la police criminelle allemande, a affirm? mardi que les responsables espagnols avaient ? deux reprises, apr?s les attentats de Madrid, induit en erreur l'officier de liaison allemand sur le type d'explosif utilis?. Le ministre de l'int?rieur, Otto Schily, s'?tait plaint lui-m?me, dimanche, d'une coop?ration insuffisante.
A Bruxelles, Reijo Kemppinen, porte-parole du pr?sident de la Commission, Romano Prodi, a regrett? que r?gne "une certaine culture du secret" qui se r?v?le trop souvent "contre-productive". "Les Etats membres, a-t-il dit, doivent apprendre ? faire confiance aux institutions europ?ennes et aux autres Etats."
Dans ses recommandations pour le sommet, la Commission a demand?, mardi, que les textes adopt?s par l'Union soient mieux appliqu?s et que ceux qui sont encore sur la table du conseil soient adopt?s en toute priorit?. Quelles que soient les mesures prises par l'Union, elles seront sans effet sans "la volont? politique des Etats membres de prendre leurs engagements au s?rieux", a soulign? M. Kemppinen.
La Commission a ?galement propos? l'adoption, en attendant la future Constitution, d'une "d?claration de solidarit?" par laquelle l'Union et les Etats membres s'engageront ? agir "conjointement dans un esprit de solidarit? si un Etat membre est l'objet d'une attaque terroriste".
Henri de Bresson et Thomas Ferenczi ? Bruxelles


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"L'Europe prot?gera ses citoyens"
"Face ? la menace et dans le respect des libert?s et de l'Etat de droit, l'Europe prot?gera ses citoyens. Cette exigence sera au c?ur des travaux du prochain Conseil europ?en", a d?clar? Jacques Chirac mardi ? Paris.
"La communaut? internationale doit se rassembler pour lutter contre le terrorisme, a continu? le chef de l'Etat. Mais soyons lucides. Nous devons aussi nous rassembler pour mettre un terme aux conflits qui alimentent la col?re et la frustration des peuples, pour lutter contre la mis?re, l'humiliation et l'injustice qui sont des terreaux de la violence. Nous devons choisir l'espoir, la solidarit?, le dialogue et notamment le dialogue des cultures contre la pr?tendue fatalit? d'un choc des civilisations."


* ARTICLE PARU DANS L'EDITION DU 18.03.04
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>> OH- THOSE SENSITIVE LIBYANS?
Libya Disappointed by Nuclear Show, Official Says
Tue Mar 16, 2004 04:15 PM ET
By Louis Charbonneau
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Washington offended Libya with its display of the north African nation's dismantled nuclear weapons, an official close to the United Nations nuclear watchdog said on Tuesday.
The White House displayed for the media on Monday components flown out of Tripoli in late January under a sudden Libyan agreement to rid itself of weapons of mass destruction.
"Libya was quite unhappy with this dog-and-pony show because it hurts them domestically (and) in the Arab world," said the senior official close to the U.N. watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.
"It looks like unilateral U.S. disarmament of Libya and Libya wants it recognized as disarmament under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and IAEA auspices," the Vienna-based official added.
The White House insists the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq -- and the example of the toppling of Saddam Hussein -- played an important part in persuading Libya to disarm.
U.S. officials have also sounded out journalists' interest in a second show -- this time of a batch of larger program parts being shipped from Libya to the United States.
IRAQ WAR ANNIVERSARY
The visit to the Oak Ridge complex, where the United States developed the original atomic bombs in World War II, came in a week in which the Bush administration is marking the one-year anniversary of its invasion of Iraq.
President Bush is under heavy election-year fire over the failure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, his main justification for going to war.
After Libya's Dec. 19 announcement that it would give up its weapons of mass destruction programs and allow international experts to disarm it, diplomats close to the IAEA said Tripoli had been harshly criticized in the Arab-language press for its sudden warming toward Washington and London.
"Libya was very sensitive to this criticism," a diplomat said.
IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei has made two trips to Libya since Dec. 19 and his agency has been overseeing the dismantling of Tripoli's unsuccessful nuclear arms program.
One Western diplomat in Vienna who follows the IAEA closely recently told Reuters that it was obvious Washington was trying to "spin" Libya's decision to come clean as the result of the Iraq war -- and not as part of a long process that began with Tripoli's decision to accept responsibility for Lockerbie.
He said Libya's decision was probably influenced by Iraq, but had more to do with a decade and a half of diplomatic isolation and harsh economic sanctions. (Additional reporting by Saul Hudson)
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? Copyright Reuters 2004. All rights reserved.

>> THOSE SENSITIVE NORKS?

N. Korea increasing 'nuclear deterrent'
By SANG-HUN CHOE
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER
SEOUL, South Korea -- North Korea declared it is strengthening its "nuclear deterrent," raising the stakes Wednesday in its standoff with South Korea and the United States.
South Korea's interim leader called for a stronger alliance with Washington, dismissing a claim by the North that the South's parliamentary impeachment of President Roh Moo-hyun last week reflected U.S. interference to "install an ultra-right pro-U.S. regime" in Seoul.
With the unprecedented impeachment spawning uncertainty, South Korea has ordered heightened military vigilance against the North. It is also going ahead with annual joint military exercises with the United States, scheduled to begin Sunday, to test the allies' defense readiness.
Pyongyang on Wednesday accused Seoul of "kicking up a racket of confrontation with the North."
"This attitude ... is a grave provocation to the compatriots in the North," said North Korea's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, a government agency handling relations with the South.
There are fears that Pyongyang may use the South's leadership crisis to stall six-nation nuclear talks aimed at defusing the nuclear standoff.
North Korea said Wednesday it was strengthening its "nuclear deterrent" - its term for nuclear weapons development.
The North blamed the United States for the lack of breakthroughs in last month's six-nation talks, and accused Washington of raising tensions on the Korean peninsula by holding the joint military exercises.
Washington and Seoul say the annual drills, which run through March 28, are routine exercises.
"The Korean people, who consider independence to be their life and soul, are keeping a close eye on the U.S. moves, while further strengthening the self-defense nuclear deterrent to cope with them," said North Korea's official news agency, KCNA.
A second round of six-nation talks ended in Beijing in late February with little progress. Washington insisted on a "complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantling" of all the North's nuclear facilities. Pyongyang said it would dismantle its nuclear programs only if the United States provides economic aid and security guarantees.
The talks involved the United States, the two Koreas, China, Russia and Japan. They agreed to meet again by July.
Prime Minister Goh Kun - who is leading South Korea's government until the Constitutional Court rules on whether to oust Roh or to restore his suspended presidential powers - moved quickly to dismiss the North's threats.
Amid political uncertainty, "establishing a solid security posture is more important than anything else," Goh said in a speech Wednesday at the Air Force Academy's graduation ceremony.
"We must further strengthen our alliance with the United States," he said.
South Korea's parliament voted Friday to impeach Roh for alleged election-law violations and incompetence. The Constitutional Court has 180 days to rule.
North Korea has bitterly denounced the impeachment, initiated by South Korea's conservative opposition - which favors a tougher stance toward the North.
"The U.S. is chiefly to blame for the incident," KCNA said. "The U.S. egged the South Korean political quacks, obsessed by the greed for power, on to stage such incident in a bid to install an ultra-right pro-U.S. regime there."
About 1,500 people protested the impeachment Wednesday night in Seoul. The number of protesters was sharply lower than the 50,000 who gathered over the weekend to hold candles and chant for Roh's reinstatement.

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Analyst says Al-Qaida may attack by sea
By D'ARCY DORAN
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER
SINGAPORE -- The al-Qaida terror network likely is planning an unprecedented maritime attack, hitting targets on land with ships carrying chemical, biological or dirty bomb weapons, a defense analyst said Wednesday.
The terrorist network could easily exploit weaknesses in shipping companies' crew selection procedures by planting sleeper agents on vessels to eventually seize them, said Michael Richardson, a senior researcher at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies who writes extensively on Asian security issues.
"The al-Qaida network has serious maritime terrorism plans," Richardson told diplomats, academics and defense officials at the institute.
Singapore's Coordinating Security Minister Tony Tan has warned repeatedly since November that there is a "very serious" risk of terrorists using ships to attack the city-state.
Such an attack could have come sooner if it wasn't so difficult to procure a nuclear device and if al-Qaida's operations chief, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, and its head of naval operations, Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri hadn't been arrested, Richardson said.
"Sooner or later, al-Qaida or one of its affiliates will make and detonate a radiological bomb, whether it's in a ship or a shipping container," he said.
"If you look at how relatively easy it is to get the materials, put them together and make them go bang, and look at the motivation, terrorism is going to get bigger and it's going to get worse," he added.
A prime target would be Singapore - or any of the world's 40 largest port cities - or key international shipping straits and canals, Richardson said.
Al-Qaida operatives could easily get jobs on ships by buying fake seafarer credentials, which are widely available, he said.
But al-Qaida's past pattern of disciplined, coordinated attacks makes it unlikely that the network will risk hijacking a ship, or seeking help from pirates outside of its circle of zealots, he said.
The network has already demonstrated its willingness to attack sea targets with suicide attacks on the destroyer USS Cole in 2000 and the French oil tanker Limburg in 2002, Richardson said. In both attacks, suicide bombers detonated small explosive-laden boats next to vessels off the coast of Yemen.
Singapore, a close Washington ally, also claims to have foiled a plot by the al-Qaida linked Jemaah Islamiyah terror group to blow up, among other Western targets, a U.S. Naval facility in the island nation. The city-state has detained 37 terror suspects since 2001.
Jemaah Islamiyah is also blamed for the 2002 Bali bombings that killed 202 and an August 2003 suicide bombing at the J.W. Marriott Hotel in Jakarta that killed 12.

On the Net:

Maritime Terror Report: www.iseas.edu.sg/viewpoint.html