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BULLETIN
Monday, 1 March 2004

>> SOMETHING ROTTEN IN BELGIUM...

Trial torments Belgian town
By Emma Jane Kirby
BBC correspondent in Arlon, Belgium
Police and media surround the suspect when he appears
Marc Dutroux is Belgium's public enemy number one.
The newspapers describe him as Belgium's most hated man.
His face is etched onto the Belgian psyche and although everybody here would rather forget about him, that is absolutely impossible at the moment.
The little town of Arlon is flooded with journalists - at least 200 different television companies are here beaming Belgium's shame across the world.
Turned away
Many hotels here have refused to take anybody associated with Marc Dutroux.
People will want to know why he was allowed out of prison after serving just three years of a 13-year sentence for raping five young children
His lawyers are having to sleep at the military barracks because no one will put them up.
Emotions are running so high here that even restaurants - which are benefiting from increased trade with so many media crews in town - are giving away a lot of the money they raise to charities connected to the families of the victims.
There is a huge amount of security, including for Mr Dutroux himself, who is making his court appearance in a bullet-proof vest.
Mr Dutroux could begin to give his evidence on Wednesday, and he and his co-defendants - which include his now ex-wife Michelle Martin - will stand behind a special bullet-proof glass cage.
Horrific detail
Security helicopters are constantly buzzing overhead.
There is not an entrance or exit from this court not covered by policemen and camera crews hoping to catch a glimpse of the defendants as they make their way back to prison.
Thousands of Belgians took to the streets in protest at delays
The whole day has been taken up with swearing in the jury - the 180 people brought to court first thing on Monday morning have now been whittled down to 12 jurors and 12 stand-ins.
But many people made excuses when asked to stand, saying they would be simply too upset and too sensitive to listen to the horrific details of these alleged crimes.
They did not want to have to spend the next four months listening to more and more details of a case that the whole country would like to put behind it.
Many questions
The big question among many is why this case took so long to come to trial.
There have been so many police blunders - including missing clues throughout this whole case.
Police failed to find two girls held in a house
We know for example that Mr Dutroux was building a dungeon, but police did not act on the tip-offs they received.
They did go to his house while two eight-year-old girls were being kept in the dungeon but could not find them.
We now know the girls starved to death.
Mr Dutroux is a convicted child rapist and people will also want to know why he was allowed out of prison after serving just three years of a 13-year sentence for raping five young children.
The families too will want answers to some of these questions.
Mr Dutroux's lawyers have presented a seven-page dossier supporting his claims to be part of a wider paedophile mafia which he alleges included senior politicians and businessmen.
But the prosecution begins first and they have started to read out the charges of rape, abduction and murder against him.
There is a lot to get through.
It will be a gruelling three to four months for the families, some of whom were already in tears on the first day of their ordeal.

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Lessons of Dutroux affair still to be learnt
Convicted child rapist Marc Dutroux has gone on trial in Belgium on charges of kidnapping and abusing six young girls in the 1990s and murdering four of them.
The case has spurred Switzerland and other European nations to step up the fight against paedophile crime.
Dutroux - who admits he abducted and imprisoned girls but denies murdering them - was arrested in 1996.
Eight years on hundreds of journalists have descended on the town of Arlon to report on his trial.
Street protests
The case caused public outcry after revelations of inept police work and led to huge demonstrations in Belgium.
Protests of a similar nature also took place elsewhere in Europe. In 2002 thousands of protesters took to the streets of Switzerland to demand more action to protect children from sexual abuse.
In 2001 a special unit was created within the Federal Police Office to deal with paedophile crime and coordinate investigations between cantons and with other countries.
But protesters argued that the unit should be supplemented by a formal nationwide cybercrime office, which was launched early last year.
Three cantons - Geneva, Vaud and Bern - have also set up local cybercrime offices to investigate paedophile activities on the internet.
Tackling crime
Some observers, however, say the Swiss authorities could do more to tackle paedophile crime.
"There has been no major improvement in the fight against paedophilia on the internet since the Dutroux affair," argues Pascal Seeger, the former head of canton Geneva's cybercrime unit.
Seeger, who left the police to work for the anti-paedophile non-governmental organisation, Action Innocence, told swissinfo not enough resources were available to fight sexual abuse of children.
"The laws don't give us enough latitude to arrest paedophiles, nor to punish them," he said.
He also expressed concern that the Swiss government's planned budget cuts would make it more difficult to track down paedophiles on a systematic basis.
But Philippe Kronig, who heads up the Swiss Coordination Unit for Cybercrime Control, disagrees with this assessment.
"We are able to handle the same workload that other countries deal with," he said.
Monitoring websites
Kronig's eight-strong team monitors suspicious websites by copying their contents on to their own systems. They then check them for links or references to Switzerland and determine whether their authors could be legally prosecuted.
But the unit is not supported across the country. Canton Zurich has declined to contribute financially, arguing that the bureau is too small to make a difference.
Critics also warn that any nationally-coordinated action is hindered by Switzerland's federal structure, which leaves responsibility for dealing with paedophile crime to individual cantons.
"We can only take over some tasks if the cantons specifically ask for them," said federal police spokesman, Guido Balmer.
"But most of them prefer to rely on their resources and knowledge."
Seeger argues that the issue is more complex and points out that the cantons and federal authorities cannot always decide who is ultimately responsible.
"It's unfortunate because the French and the Germans have managed to overcome the jurisdiction problem and achieved good results," he told swissinfo.
Positive results
Coordinated police operations over the past two years have led to investigations into more than 1,000 suspected child pornographers in Switzerland - including local officials, civil servants and teachers.
Last month the Swiss Conference of Cantonal Directors of Public Education produced a blacklist of suspected paedophile teachers in a bid to prevent anyone convicted from finding new employment by moving to a school in a different canton.
Gabriela Fuchs, the conference's spokeswoman, said the aim of the list was not to name people specifically.
"We don't give out names," she told swissinfo. "The cantons will only get a 'yes' or 'no' answer if someone is blacklisted."
The Catholic Church has also begun to deal with paedophile priests within its ranks, and says it is prepared to hand offenders over to the courts.
"If they are found guilty, they will have to go to prison like everybody else," said Marc Aellen, spokesman for the Swiss Bishops Conference.
swissinfo, Scott Capper
Copyright ? Swissinfo / Neue Z?rcher Zeitung AG
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Trial Opens Against 'Monster of Marcinelle'

March 1, 2004
by Danielle Russo
Arlon, Belgium (MND NEWSWIRE) - Almost eight years after a string of sex crimes played out in a small city in Belgium, the trial against accused rapist and killer Marc Dutroux began in the Arlon trial court this morning.
Dutroux, a 47 year old electrician also known as 'the monster of Marcinelle', is the center of one of the most chilling tales of pedophilia of modern times. He is alleged of kidnapping beating, raping, and stowing six young girls in a dark chamber underneath his home. Four of these girls died. Dutroux admits to having abducted them but denies any hand in their murder.
Paradoxically, when the 'monster' was captured in August 1996, Belgium had done away with the death penalty a few months earlier. Now, there are some who would like to see it reinstated for this case, even though some say that Dutroux was merely one link in a chain of criminals including local businesspeople, politicians, and members of the justice system.
Aside from Dutroux, three others are also on trial, including his ex-wife.
The trial is expected to last at least a few months, with 450 witnesses scheduled to be heard. In the small city of Arlon, more than 300 agents have been stationed around the courthouse for security purposes.
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Belgian justice on trial with Dutroux
By Chris Morris
BBC Europe correspondent
It has taken eight years for Belgium's most hated man to come to trial.
Dutroux says he was part of a wider conspiracy
But Marc Dutroux is finally due in court on Monday charged with the abduction, rape and murder of young girls in a case whose gruesome detail shocked the country and the world.
Long-standing allegations of a cover-up and charges of police incompetence led to mass protests against Belgium's archaic judicial system. But many fear the trial will still leave many questions unanswered.
Back in 1996, Mr Dutroux led police to the bodies of four young girls buried underground. Two eight-year-olds had starved to death in captivity. Two other girls were rescued from Mr Dutroux's cellar. One of them had been abused for 80 days.
What has made it worse are claims of a broad conspiracy and a paedophile network at the heart of the Belgian establishment.
I think the ordinary Belgian doesn't understand why it had to take eight years to judge a man whose crimes are so horrific
Mark Eeckhaut
De Standard newspaper
Belgian kidnap victim tells her story
Ordinary Belgians were and have remained stunned. Mark Eeckhaut from De Standard newspaper said: "The word that comes to mind is monster.
"I think the ordinary Belgian doesn't understand why it had to take eight years to judge a man whose crimes are so horrific, so I think 99% of Belgians maybe think the process is a waste of time."
Shock turned long ago to public fury. The police and judiciary seemed guilty of gross incompetence.
The first investigating magistrate was dismissed after having supper with one of the victim's families. Several prosecutors, police officers and witnesses have committed suicide. Evidence has gone astray.
After Mr Dutroux's arrest it transpired not only that he had been under surveillance, but also that he had served six years of a jail term for child rape.
Potential connecting information fell through the cracks between different police services. Worse still, police searched the house where two of his victims were hidden but failed to find them.
The pair later starved to death after Mr Dutroux was arrested on a completely separate issue - car theft.
The police faced further humiliation in 1998 when Mr Dutroux suceeded in escaping for three hours after overpowering an officer who was guarding him.
The interior and justice ministers resigned after the incident.
Several of the parents of the young victims later said they had lost faith in the will of the authorities to uncover the truth.
Mr Dutroux - who admits abduction, but denies murder - has accused the Belgian police and justice system of refusing to investigate leads he provided, which he says would prove that he was just part of a wider paedophile conspiracy.
But Belgian officials say that the long delay bringing the case to court partly results from the need to investigate these alleged networks, which they say do not exist.
'System on trial'
Back in 1996, hundreds of thousands took to the streets in the White March, one of the biggest protests Brussels has ever seen.
Thousands of Belgians took to the streets in protest
The government - shaken by the immense scale of public anger - promised changes to the constitution to reduce political interference in the judicial process.
But there is still a sense that the system itself is now on trial as well.
Conspiracy or no conspiracy, the system failed to follow clues and prevent terrible crimes taking place and then it failed to administer justice for eight long years.
Even now there is an unsettling sense of mystery hanging over this entire case.
Martine Van Praet, the lawyer charged with the defence of Belgium's most hated man says she fears it will be little more than a show trial.
"They've made him into a devil. And they say, 'There's the paedophile, the little girls, the horrible abuse'.
"They have made Mr Dutroux a devil and they are going to throw him away because he's been condemned, before the trial and it will leave the door open so all the bad things can continue."
But in a courtroom in the provincial city of Arlon, Mr Dutroux and three alleged accomplices, including his ex-wife are finally about to face Belgian justice.
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Deconstructing Belgium
Even after 173 years of nationhood, the Belgian state appears as implausible as ever. In a country united by pragmatism and divided by language, Khaled Diab asks whether Belgium will be torn apart by the force of words or be held together with the power of good sense.
Belgium celebrated its national day on Monday 21 July. As the nation kicked back its heels to enjoy the festivities, the royal family clocked in for their most important day's work of the year. While the strain of public life showed on some of the more obscure royals who snoozed in the aisles, King Albert II delivered his tenth anniversary address.
As is the custom, the easy-going Albert spoke in both French and Dutch. On the occasion of his 10 years on the throne, the king took the opportunity to express national pride and unity. But with no common language, no national newspapers or broadcasters, and an increasingly powerless federal government, the oneness of Belgium he sought to exalt was an extremely complex creature to pin down.
In fact, the royal family is one of the few threads holding the country's complex identity in place. Groping around for another symbol, he turned to sport. He referred to two rising Belgian icons - Kim Clijsters and Justine Henin-Hardenne - as symbols of national unity, and wished both of them luck as they battled for Belgium in the Fed Cup.
The sports-mad king was perhaps not just waxing lyrical because of Juju and Kimmy's historic moment - if lacklustre hour and a half - on the Roland Garros centre court in Paris, delivering him the first all-Belgian grand slam final (and title), exclusive access to the royal box and the opportunity to hand out the trophy.
I'm no monarchist and I certainly don't think that an elegant backhand or a killer serve should personify national identity. However, I can see the beautifully parallel careers of the tennis wonders - one a Fleming, the other a Walloon - both playing under the tricolours can raise the spirits, if not the essence, of modern Belgium.
Although the two enjoy a friendly rivalry and have such contrasting personalities, they have got on well since childhood. And the fact that they are tied so closely - Kim is the world's number two and Justine is number three - does not give a chance for regional envy or gloating to surface.
Nevertheless, the two young icons are daughters of their time and are living manifestations of the language fault line along which the country is slowly drifting apart: in public, Justine speaks French or English and does not speak Dutch, while Kim speaks Dutch or English, and prefers not to speak French. In fact, English is increasingly becoming the lingua franca in Belgium.
Post modern states of mind
To my eyes, Belgium, as a nation, can only be described as post-modern. The once central state apparatus is gradually being deconstructed and its competencies slowly devolved to the regions.
This devolution has resulted in a unique parallel system of government where power is divided geographically into regions and linguistically into communities. 'Regions' satisfied Walloon ambitions for greater regional economic power while 'communities' met Flemish aspirations for greater cultural autonomy.
The latter innovation came into existence to resolve the thorny issue of bilingual Brussels, which is predominantly French speaking but is historically and geographically Flemish. The settling of the status and borders of Brussels was the most ambitious constitutional reform Belgium had undergone since it was established in 1830.
And, just as a revolt at the unlikely venue of the opera house paved the way for Belgian independence in the 19th Century, the tiny village of Voeren/Fouron brought about the collapse of the national government in 1987 and sparked the reforms that would turn Belgium into a federal state.
'Federal' in Belgium has a special meaning. Whereas in most countries it means increasing centralisation of power, here it has meant the exact reverse. However, the most radical reform was to exclude the ultimate supremacy of national over regional government. This decoupling of hierarchies has led to the rather surreal situation of each region setting its own foreign policy.
It's hard to miss the apparent paradox of Belgium, while being one of the founder members of the European Union and home to most of its institutions, is concurrently dismantling its own instruments of state.
However, it can be argued that, in a unifying Europe, national boundaries are becoming less relevant. Strangely enough, the very fact that Belgium is at the heart of a larger evolving animal could be facilitating its own devolution.
One should not necessarily lament the passing away of the centralised Belgian state. This gradual devolution was born of a pragmatic awareness - a Belgian compromise, no less - that nationalistic tensions could quickly flare up into violence if they were not effectively dissipated.
Like a couple whose marriage was on the rocks, Belgium decided to go to counselling and reinvent its relationship. Now the two sides have more breathing space and are increasingly able to do their own thing. But this has led to a growing level of estrangement.
Now crunch time is approaching, and the disgruntled spouses have to decide whether they are willing to give union another chance under new terms or whether they should start proceedings for a divorce.
On the face of it, divorce might be the best option to end this weird union. But language is not everything. For historic and cultural reasons, Flemings are not willing to countenance becoming part of the Dutch-speaking Netherlands and, similarly, Walloons do not want to join France. In fact, although language divides Belgians, it also unites them in their respective distrust of their linguistic cousins across the border.
Since Belgians do not want to become part of another country and each region is too small to survive effectively on its own in the big, bad world, it is in the interest of Flemings and Walloons to stick it out together.
Beyond words
For the marriage to work, Belgians need more to bind them than a royal family, a passion for sport and a taste for beer, chocolate and fries. Apart from Brussels and its environs, people living in one region have very little awareness of what's going on in the other and very little contact with its people and culture - in fact, it's almost like being in two different countries.
In order to help overcome this in the short term, the regional media needs to give more attention to issues in the other part of the country. But the biggest barrier to greater mixing and understanding is language. Belgians need some way to bridge the language divide in order to make Belgium feel more like a single country.
One effective way to ensure that future generations move closer together is to introduce a system of bilingual education in which children receive instruction in a mix of their mother tongue and the other language.
Canada has successfully implemented bilingual education for years. In addition to promoting better social cohesion between communities, such a system has actually been shown to improve the academic and linguistic aptitude of students.
With the language barrier penetrated, a new generation of bilingual Belgians will move around the country more and intermix to a greater degree, enhancing the sense of shared nationhood.
Although the musical variety performance under the Justice Palace on 21 July underscored the cultural schism separating Belgians, it nonetheless demonstrated how joint cultural events can do their little bit to bring people closer - as was exhibited by a group of teenage Walloons who were delighted to discover that Hooverphonic was a Flemish rather than English band!
Perhaps Belgium should follow the example of some of its musicians. Urban Trad nearly stole the show in the kitsch world of Eurovision by demonstrating, with their wordless song, to Europeans - who are also divided by language - that people share something beyond words.
Through bilingual education and more intermixing as cultural equals, Belgians can make this bicultural marriage work by putting language in the backseat.

July 2003
http://www.expatica.com/source/site_article.asp?subchannel_id=49&story_id=1579

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...IN THE U.S.?

China issues 2003 US human rights record
www.chinaview.cn 2004-03-01 10:07:07
BEIJING, March 1 (Xinhuanet) -- China issued the Human Rights Record of the United States in 2003 Monday in response to the Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2003 issued by the U.S. on Feb. 25.
Released by the Information Office of China's State Council, the Chinese report listed a multitude of cases to show that serious violations of human rights exist on the homeland of the United States.
"As in any previous year, the United States once again acted as'the world human rights police' by distorting and censuring in the'reports' the human rights situation in more than 190 countries and regions across the world, including China. And just as usual, the United States once again 'omitted' its own long-standing malpractices and problems of human rights in the 'reports'. Therefore, we have to, as before, help the United States keep its human rights record," said the report.
The report reviewed the human rights record of the United States in 2003 from six perspectives: Life, Freedom and Safety; Political Rights and Freedom; Living Conditions of US Laborers; Racial Discrimination; Conditions of Women, Children and Elderly People; and Infringement upon Human Rights of Other Nations.
This is the fifth consecutive year that the Information Office of the State Council has issued human rights record of the United States to answer the Country Reports on Human Rights Practices issued annually by the State Department of the United States. Enditem


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...IN CHINA...
China
Briefing to the 60th Session of the UN Commission on Human Rights
January 2004
Objective
The Commission on Human Rights should adopt a resolution condemning China's violations of the rights to freedom of expression, association and assembly, religion and belief, repression of minorities in Tibet and Xinjiang and violations of the right to non-discrimination for people living with HIV/AIDS. The resolution should urge judicial proceedings that meet international standards. It should also urge China to cooperate fully with UN monitoring mechanisms.
Background
Human Rights Watch has documented abuses directed against political dissidents, religious believers, labor activists, tenants' rights advocates, people living with HIV/AIDS, alleged "separatists" in Xinjiang and Tibet, and North Korean asylum seekers.
Freedom of association and the right to strike. China's constitution and the International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights (which China has ratified) guarantee the right to freedom of association, but China prohibits independent trade unions. Labor protests have multiplied in many regions. In May 2003, after problematic trials, Liaoning province labor activists Yao Fuxin and Xiao Yunliang received seven and four-year sentences, respectively, for their role in organizing protests. Family members report that both men are seriously ill.
Xinjiang-Uighur Autonomous Region. China uses the U.S.-led "war on terror" to leverage international support for its crackdown on ethnic Uighurs in northwestern Xinjiang. Chinese authorities do not distinguish between peaceful and violent dissent, or between separatism and international terrorism. The state's crackdown on Muslim Uighurs has included summary trials and mass sentencing rallies. There have been credible reports of the extensive use of torture and the death penalty. The Chinese government has closed printing houses producing unauthorized religious literature; instituted mandatory "patriotic re-education" campaigns for religious leaders; stepped up surveillance of Muslim weddings, funerals, circumcisions, and house moving rituals; arrested clerics; raided religious classes; banned traditional gatherings; and leveled mosques.
Tibet. The Chinese government continues to impose severely repressive measures limiting any display of support for an independent Tibet. China curtails the Dalai Lama's political and religious influence through control of religious and cultural expression of Tibetan identity. In 2002, after a trial marred by lack of due process, a court sentenced Tenzin Delek Rinpoche, a locally prominent lama, to death with a two-year suspended sentence. He had been charged with causing explosions and "inciting the separation of the state." His alleged co-conspirator, Lobsang Dondrup, was executed. Several of Tenzin Delek's associates remain in prison; close to a hundred others were detained, many for attempting to bring information about the crackdown to the attention of the foreign community. Credible sources report ill-treatment and torture in detention.
The HIV/AIDS epidemic. China faces what could become the largest HIV/AIDS epidemic in the world. But widespread discrimination by state agencies and individuals forces many people with HIV/AIDS to hide without access to treatment or care. People living with HIV/AIDS interviewed by Human Rights Watch report that hospitals test them without their consent or knowledge and refuse care if they test positive for HIV. Persons at high risk of HIV/AIDS, such as injection drug users, face detention without trial in prison-like "forced detoxification centers." Such methods drive persons at high risk underground, out of reach of any state AIDS prevention programs. In the 1990s, profitable but unsafe state-run blood collection centers spread HIV in many regions of the country. The state has failed to investigate the role of local authorities in the epidemic or to hold officials accountable. Some responsible officials have been promoted. Although China has taken steps by promising to offer anti-retroviral treatment to impoverished persons with HIV/AIDS, the lack of legal and institutional reforms to protect their rights means such promises will be difficult to realize.
Forced eviction. China's rapid economic development has led to forced evictions in urban and rural areas. Residents complain of lack of advance notice, low compensation, and violent evictions by hired thugs and bulldozers. Chinese laws permit forced evictions to continue even while residents are suing to prevent them; many courts refuse to hear the cases. Protests have escalated, and there has been a series of suicide protests. In response, police have jailed tenants' rights advocates. The Chinese government has promised policy reforms, but while local Party officials can intervene to influence courts, these will be difficult to implement.
Restrictions on the Internet. Chinese authorities continue to restrict use of the Internet. In May 2003, a Sichuan provincial court sentenced Internet activist Huang Qi to a five-year prison term on charges of subversion. Others have been apprehended or sentenced for posting political opinions on bulletin boards or chat rooms. Chinese users cannot access foreign sites government officials consider "sensitive," domestic sites are arbitrarily shut down, and Internet service providers--including international ISPs such as Yahoo--are prohibited from publishing news that has not been officially cleared. Monitoring and censorship of electronic mail is routine, and China is reportedly training "cyber police" to monitor the activities of Chinese activists.
Repatriation of North Korean asylum seekers. China has forcibly repatriated North Korean refugees who have fled the harsh political and economic conditions in their homeland. China is a party to the 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol which prohibit such repatriation. China has not permitted the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees to establish a presence on the China-North Korean border.
Judicial proceedings. Police officials, prosecutors, and judges routinely compromise the legal rights of defendants. Although the 1997 Criminal Procedure Law revisions reinforced the rights of defendants, there is no presumption of innocence; defendants are denied timely access to counsel or to counsel of their own choosing; and defense counsel's ability to gather and present evidence is severely limited before and during any trial. China maintains "re-education through labor," a system of administrative punishment that incarcerates thousands of citizens each year without benefit of judicial review.
Recommendations
The Commission on Human Rights should:
Call on the Chinese authorities to immediately and unconditionally release all those held for peacefully exercising their rights of free speech, expression, and association, including those accused of religious or political offenses, labor activism, and so-called separatist activities; to abolish the reeducation-through-labor system; to legislate against discrimination on the basis of HIV status; to investigate and hold accountable officials who profited from blood collection centers that spread HIV and covered up the epidemic; to amend Chinese laws and regulations to bring them into conformity with international human rights law; to rescind the reservation to article 8(1)(a) of the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights; and to permit workers to form and join their own trade unions and to bargain collectively.

Urge China to ratify the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which it signed in October 1998.

Urge revision of the Criminal Procedure Code and Law on Protecting State Secrets in line with international human rights standards.

Insist that China honor its refugee protection obligations, immediately halt all repatriation of North Koreans entering China, and begin a dialogue with the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees about access to the China-North Korea border.

Urge China to cooperate fully with U.N. mechanisms, including by inviting thematic rapporteurs to visit the country.
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...IN IRAN...

Iran
Briefing to the 60th Session of the UN Commission on Human Rights
January 2004
Objective
The Commission on Human Rights should build upon the United Nations General Assembly's resolution on the human rights situation in Iran by re-establishing a Special Procedure to monitor and report on Iran's implementation of the resolution's recommendations. The Commission should also call on the Iranian authorities to implement the recommendations made by the Working Group on Arbitrary Detention in its June report.
Background
Iran's standing invitation to the Commission's thematic mechanisms was a welcome development in 2002.
However, Iran's human rights situation has steadily deteriorated since the 59th session of the Commission. In June and July armed plainclothes security forces attacked peaceful protesters. The Office of the Chief Prosecutor ordered the detention of scores of students, writers and journalists throughout the year. The use of torture in interrogations of political prisoners was highlighted by the death in custody of photojournalist Zahra Kazemi in July. The visit of the Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of the right to freedom of opinion and expression was undermined by the arrest and detention without charge of at least one activist who spoke with him in Tehran.
Iran held its first two dialogues on human rights with the European Union, but the sessions have failed to produce results.
Absence of Due Process. The Office of the Chief Prosecutor, led by Said Mortazavi, routinely ignored Iranian and international law by ordering the arrest of journalists, students and writers who criticized government policies. Few of those formally charged or tried had access to an attorney, and many trials occurred in camera. Human Rights Watch is especially alarmed by the routine use of prolonged solitary confinement in combination with videotaped confessions. Some political prisoners, including Taqi Rahmani, Hoda Saber and Reza Alijani, have been in detention without charge for at least six months, much of it incommunicado. Siamak Pourzand, a 74-year-old journalist and activist, has been held in detention for over nine months and his family members are greatly concerned for his health.
Freedom of Expression. Many journalists and writers remain behind bars solely for exercising their right to freedom of expression. These include Akbar Ganji, Hassan Youssefi-Eshkevari, Abbas Abdi, Iraj Jamshidi, Taqi Rahmani, Hoda Saber and Reza Alijani. Lawyers who defend writers, journalists, and activists who have spoken out against the government are also at risk of arrest and detention. Plainclothes groups have also threatened those who advocate publicly for human rights. The government has not held these groups to account, and law enforcement forces often stand aside during confrontations. Nobel Prize recipient Shirin Ebadi was recently threatened by Ansar-e Hezbollah members while addressing students at al-Zahra University.
In 2003, following the attack on the reformist press launched three years earlier which resulted in the closure of all but two reformist papers, the authorities turned to the budding internet media. Chief Prosecutor Mortazavi ordered the arrest of several popular weblog writers, including Sina Motallebi, and the government attempted to block access to web publications. On January 7, 2003, it was reported that the judiciary ordered the blocking of reformist news website Emrooz to Iranian internet subscribers.
Torture and Ill-Treatment in Detention. The routine lack of respect for basic due process, as well as the frequent use of solitary confinement and prolonged interrogations heighten the risk of torture and ill-treatment in detention. Many freed political prisoners report regular beatings with cables on the back and soles of feet, assault with boots and fists on the head and torso, and forced immobilization in contorted positions. These methods are often used during and prior to interrogations and demands for videotaped or signed confessions.
The Working Group on Arbitrary Detention expressed concern in its June 2003 report about lack of access to counsel, abuse of solitary confinement practices, and breaches of due process.
Discrimination Against Religious and Ethnic Minorities. The lack of public school education in the Kurdish language remains a perennial source of Kurdish frustration. Followers of the Baha'i faith also continue to face persecution, including being denied permission to worship or to carry out other communal affairs publicly. At least four Baha'is are serving prison terms for their religious beliefs.
Recommendations
The Commission on Human Rights should:
Re-establish a special mechanism to monitor and report on the human rights situation in Iran.
Call on the Iranian authorities to facilitate visits by the U.N. Special Rapporteurs on violence against women, torture, and freedom of religion; and make public and time-based commitments to full implementation of the Working Group on Arbitrary Detention and other Special Rapporteurs' recommendations.
Call on Iran to:
ratify the CEDAW and CAT treaties, and announce an official review of reservations entered upon ratification of other major human rights instruments;

release all political prisoners;

authorize an independent and impartial investigation into judicial abuses by the Office of the Chief Prosecutor;

abolish of the death penalty for juvenile offenders (persons convicted for offences committed under the age of 18) as a first step towards total abolition of the death penalty;

amend the press law to safeguard freedom of the press and permit publications closed by unlawful judicial procedures to reopen;

establish strict limits on the use of solitary confinement in prisons, as well as the use of videotaped interrogations;

establish and enforce strict limits on incommunicado detention, and ensure prompt access to lawyers and family members for detainees. Courts should not admit as evidence incriminatory statements obtained through use of coercion; and

initiate a program of action to identify and address discrimination against minority groups.
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...IN CHECHNYA...

Russian Federation/Chechnya
Briefing to the 60th Session of the UN Commission on Human Rights
January 2004
Objective
The Commission on Human Rights should adopt a strong resolution on the situation in Chechnya, condemning ongoing violations of human rights and international humanitarian law by both parties to the conflict; urging the Russian authorities to establish a genuine accountability process for these abuses; calling on Russia to desist from coerced returns of internally displaced persons and to ensure their well-being; calling on Russia to invite key U.N. thematic mechanisms, in particular the Special Rapporteurs on torture and on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions; and urging Russia to agree to a new Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) mandate for Chechnya.
Background
The October 2003 presidential elections in Chechnya did not change dynamics in the republic. Despite government claims of normalization, the situation there continued to be very tense.
Russian forces round up thousands of men in raids, loot homes, physically abuse villagers, and frequently commit extrajudicial executions. Those detained face beatings and other forms of torture, aimed at coercing confessions or information about Chechen forces. Federal forces routinely extort money from detainees' relatives as a condition for release.
"Disappearances" remain a hallmark of the conflict, and their frequency rose sharply in early 2003. According to statements by pro-Moscow Chechen officials, in the first half of 2003 an average of two people went missing every day, many of them after being detained by Russian forces. The Russian human rights group Memorial documented 294 "disappearances" between January and November 2003, including forty-seven people whose corpses were later discovered in unmarked graves or dumped by the roadside. The group estimates that the real number of "disappearances" was three or four times higher.
Starting in spring 2003, the conflict increasingly spilled over into other regions of Russia. Human Rights Watch research in Ingushetia in July found that Russian forces regularly conducted military operations there, targeting both Chechen internally displaced persons but also the local Ingush population. A series of suicide bombings in the North Caucasus and Moscow, often carried out by Chechen women, reinforced fears of a spreading conflict.
Harassment of applicants to the European Court of Human Rights emerged as a new and worrisome trend. After having "disappeared" an applicant in June 2002, Russian forces extrajudicially executed another applicant and her family in May 2003. Also, nongovernmental groups that represent Chechen victims of human rights abuses before the Court have documented threats against other applicants or their families in at least seven other cases.
IDP crisis. Russian authorities have continued to put undue pressure on displaced persons to return to Chechnya, where they remain at risk. In 2003, they closed two more camps for internally displaced persons in Ingushetia. Although eventually some camp dwellers were allowed to resettle in Ingushetia, months of carrot-and-stick tactics had already resulted in the return of many to Chechnya. Following a September 2003 visit to the region, the U.N. Representative of the Secretary General for Internally Displaced Persons stated that "IDPs in camps in Ingushetia were acutely apprehensive that the camps might be closed and that they might be forced to return to a situation in Chechnya which they regarded to be unsafe..." He also noted that persons who had returned to Chechnya due to incentives asserted that "they had not found much of what they had been promised including compensation and adequate humanitarian assistance and that they remained seriously concerned about the security situation and their own safety."
Abuses by Chechen fighters. Chechen rebels were responsible for several suicide bombings in and around Chechnya that caused major loss of civilian life. In December 2002 and May 2003, suicide bombers destroyed administrative buildings in Grozny and Znamenskoe. In June, a suicide bomber drove a truck into a military hospital in Mozdok. Chechen rebel groups may also have been responsible for a series of other suicide bombings in Chechnya and other parts of Russia. Rebel fighters also continued their assassination campaign against civil servants and others who cooperated with the Moscow-appointed administration in Chechnya.
Accountability. Russia continued to resist establishing any meaningful accountability process for crimes committed by its forces. Although the procuracy opened hundreds of criminal investigations into abuses by Russian troops, in most cases officials failed to conduct even the most basic investigative steps (including questioning eyewitnesses and relatives). As a result, most investigations remained unsolved and almost none were sent to the courts.
In one significant positive development, after three years of convoluted legal battles, Yuri Budanov, the only high-ranking officer tried for abuses related to the Chechnya conflict, was found guilty of murdering a young Chechen woman and sentenced to ten years' imprisonment. Budanov's conviction demonstrates that the Russian authorities are capable of bringing to justice those responsible for abuse provided the political will is there.
Access. In contrast to 2002, for most of the year no international monitors worked in the region. The OSCE Assistance Group's mandate expired in late 2002 and Russia has since refused to agree to a mandate that contains a human rights component. The Council of Europe's experts were withdrawn from Chechnya in early 2003, after a bomb attack on their convoy, and the volatile security situation since has not allowed them to return. In the four years of the conflict, Russia has not complied with U.N. resolutions calling for deployment of U.N. thematic mechanisms, with the exception of the Representatives of the Secretary-General on children in armed conflict and internally displaced persons. Among those who have been seeking access for years are the Special Rapporteurs on torture and on extrajudicial, summary, and arbitrary executions. While agreeing to a visit by the Special Rapporteur on violence against women, Russian authorities have canceled scheduled missions on a number of occasions, citing security conditions.
The Russian military periodically prevents access by journalists and human rights activists to the remaining tent camps in Ingushetia.

Recommendations

The Commission on Human Rights should:
Condemn ongoing violations of human rights and humanitarian law by both parties to the conflict. The resolution should call on the Russian authorities to immediately put an end to arbitrary detention and to observe international and Russian legal standards; to end the use of torture and ill-treatment; to put an end to the pattern of enforced disappearances; to end extrajudicial executions; and to stop harassing and threatening applicants to the European Court of Human Rights. It should call on Chechen rebel leaders to cease all attacks on civilians, including retaliatory attacks on Chechen civilians who cooperate with the Russian authorities.

Insist on accountability. The resolution should call on the Russian authorities to ensure meaningful investigations into all reported crimes by Russian troops against civilians in Chechnya or Ingushetia, and for the prosecution of the perpetrators; it should call on the Russian authorities to publish a detailed list of all current and past investigations into such abuses and indicate their current status; it should renew its call for a national commission of inquiry to document abuses by both sides to the conflict; and make clear that Russian authorities' continued failure to make progress on accountability will result in the establishment of an international commission of inquiry to document and produce an official record of abuses.

Call on Russia to desist from coerced returns of internally displaced persons and to ensure their well-being. The resolution should strongly condemn Russia's efforts to force internally displaced persons to return to Chechnya. It should call on the Russian authorities to stop moving any displaced persons to parts of the conflict zone where their safety and security cannot be guaranteed and where international humanitarian agencies do not have free and safe access.

Call on Russia to invite key U.N. thematic mechanisms, particularlythe Special Rapporteur on torture, the Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, and the Special Rapporteur on violence against women. Russia should also renew its invitation to the High Commissioner for Human Rights to visit the region and report to the Commission on the findings.

Call for renewal of the OSCE Assistance Group's mandate and cooperation with the Council of Europe. The resolution should call on the Russian government to agree to the renewal of the Assistance Group's mandate that expired on December 31, 2002, which should include a human rights component. It should also call on the authorities to cooperate with the Council of Europe.
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...IN EGYPT...

Egypt's Torture Epidemic
A Human Rights Watch Briefing Paper
February 2004
Torture in Egypt is a widespread and persistent phenomenon. Security forces and the police routinely torture or ill-treat detainees, particularly during interrogation. In most cases, officials torture detainees to obtain information and coerce confessions, occasionally leading to death in custody. In some cases, officials use torture detainees to punish, intimidate, or humiliate. Police also detain and torture family members to obtain information or confessions from a relative, or to force a wanted relative to surrender.1
While torture in Egypt has typically been used against political dissidents, in recent years it has become epidemic, affecting large numbers of ordinary citizens who find themselves in police custody as suspects or in connection with criminal investigations. The Egyptian authorities do not investigate the great majority of allegations of torture despite their obligation to do so under Egyptian and international law. In the few cases where officers have been prosecuted for torture or ill-treatment, charges were often inappropriately lenient and penalties inadequate. This lack of effective public accountability and transparency has led to a culture of impunity.
Police and state security agencies continue to use torture in order to suppress political dissent. In the past decade, suspected Islamist militants have borne the brunt of these acts. Recently, increasing numbers of secular and leftist dissidents have also been tortured by police and security officials. In March and April 2003, for instance, the authorities tortured and ill-treated in detention some demonstrators and alleged organizers of public protests against the U.S. led war in Iraq.2
Egyptian police regularly detain street children they consider "vulnerable to delinquency" or "vulnerable to danger."3 During arrest these children are routinely beaten with fists and batons. Children also told Human Rights Watch that police subjected them to sexual violence or tolerated sexual violence by adult detainees while in custody. They face brutal and humiliating treatment and, in some cases, this ill-treatment was so severe as to constitute torture.4
In addition, groups made vulnerable by stigma or social marginalization continue to be subject to police torture and ill-treatment. Many men arrested solely for consensual homosexual conduct, or suspicion thereof, have been beaten and tortured in police custody.5
Methods of torture include beatings with fists, feet, and leather straps, sticks, and electric cables; suspension in contorted and painful positions accompanied by beatings; the application of electric shocks; and sexual intimidation and violence.
Deaths in custody as a result of torture and ill-treatment have shown a disturbing rise in the past two years. Egyptian human rights organizations report at least ten cases in 2002 and seven in 2003 [see Appendix]. The Prosecutor General's office opened criminal investigations in some of these cases following formal complaints filed by human rights lawyers and family members. To Human Rights Watch's knowledge, none of these investigations have led to criminal prosecution or disciplinary actions against the perpetrators.
In the September-November 2003 period alone, Egyptian human rights organizations reported four cases of deaths in custody.
The Cairo-based Human Rights Centre for the Assistance of Prisoners (HRCAP), reported thatMuhammad `Abd al-Sattar al-Roubi, a 26-year old engineer, died on September 19 while in State Security Investigations (SSI) custody in Ebshiway detention center in Tibhar (al-Fayyum), after being tortured in an attempt to extract from him a confession regarding his political affiliations. The HRCAP reported that SSI officers told al-Roubi's father that his son had committed suicide. No autopsy report was made public stating the cause of death.6
The Association for Human Rights Legal Aid (AHRLA), an Egyptian human rights organization, reported that Muhammad `Abd al-Qadir, thirty-one, died on September 21, 2003, after being tortured in SSI custody in Cairo. Family members who saw Muhammad while he was still in custody said he told them that he had been beaten and tortured with electricity, and that marks of this torture were visible on his face and body. On September 21, police reportedly told his family that Muhammad had been moved to al-Sahil hospital; hospital officials then told the family his body had been moved to the Zainhum morgue for forensic examination. No forensic report was made public. AHRLA reported that medical personnel at the hospital told the family that Mohammad died as a result of being harshly beaten, and family members who saw the body said it bore evident signs of torture and ill treatment.7
The Egyptian Organisation for Human Rights (EOHR) reported that Mahmud Gabr Muhammad-a worker and resident of the al-Sayyida Zainab neighborhood- died on October 4, 2003, while being detained without charge in the al- Sayyida Zainab police station. Mahmud was arrested that day while he was in a caf?. A relative of the victim told EOHR that there were visible injuries on the corpse, including bruises under the knee, bleeding from the mouth, and other injuries all over the body. EOHR called for an investigation and a forensic examination in order to determine the cause of death.8
On November 6, 2003, the EOHR reported the death in custody of Mas`ad Muhammad Qutb, an accountant at the Engineers' Syndicate. He was reportedly arrested on November 1, 2003, by the SSI for being a member of the banned Muslim Brotherhood. He died on November 4, 2003, while being transferred from the SSI office in Gabir Ibn Hayan to Umm al-Masryyin Hospital. EOHR, citing al-Duqi police station report (No. 9214/2003), said that the Prosecutor General's investigation confirmed signs of inflicted injuries on the corpse and ordered a forensic examination to determine the cause of death. 9
Egypt is party to the major human rights treaties dealing with torture, notably the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) and the Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment (Convention against Torture). Hence, Egypt is strictly obliged to prohibit any form of torture and ill-treatment and to take positive measures in order to protect victims of torture by carrying out thorough, impartial, and prompt investigations into allegations of torture and ill-treatment and filing criminal charges where appropriate. However, Egypt did not sign the Optional Protocol to the ICCPR, which establishes a mechanism for receiving individual complaints. Egypt also entered reservations with regard to Articles 21 and 22 of the Convention against Torture. Those articles affirm the right of State parties to the Convention to file torture-related complaints against another state as well as the right of victims of torture to file grievances directly with the committee that oversees compliance with the Convention.
Article 42 of Egypt's Constitution provides that any person in detention "shall be treated in a manner concomitant with the preservation of his dignity" and that "no physical or moral (m`anawi) harm is to be inflicted upon him." Egypt's Penal Code recognizes torture as a criminal offence, but the definition of the crime of torture falls short of the definition in Article 1 of the Convention against Torture. For example, under article 126 of the Penal Code, torture is limited to physical abuse, occurs only when the victim is "an accused," and only when torture is being used in order to coerce a confession. While confessions are frequently the object of torture, this narrow definition improperly excludes cases of mental or psychological abuse, and cases where the torture is committed against someone other than "an accused" or for purposes other than securing a confession.
Article 126 of the Egyptian Penal Code only penalizes acts of civil servants or public employees who commit or order acts of torture. The definition of torture in Article 1 of the Convention against Torture, by contrast, also covers situations when "pain or suffering is inflicted by or at the instigation of or with the consent or acquiescence of a public official or other person acting in an official capacity,"
Egypt's Penal Code also fails to provide for effective punishment of law enforcement officials responsible for torture and ill-treatment. Article 129 of the Penal Code states that any official who subjects persons to "cruelty," including physical harm or offences to their dignity, "shall be sentenced to an arrest period of no longer than one year, or with a fine not to exceed L.E. 200 [$30]." Article 280 of the Penal Code provides for similarly inadequate penalties regarding illegal detention.
Articles 63 and 232 (2) of Egypt's Code of Criminal Procedure give the Office of the Prosecutor General exclusive authority to investigate allegations of torture and ill-treatment, even in the absence of a formal complaint, to bring charges against police and SSI officers, and to appeal court verdicts. However, under articles 210(1) and 232(2) of the Code of Criminal Procedure persons filing complaints against police for torture or ill-treatment do not have the right to challenge any decision, be it administrative or judicial, by the prosecutor's office. These articles prevent victims of torture from challenging arbitrary or capricious decisions by the Prosecutor General, thus granting the authorities effective immunity from judicial review, and thus unfettered discretion in determining how to respond to complaints of torture.
In practice, the government undertakes very few investigations and dismisses the seriousness of the problem of torture and ill-treatment in the country. Egyptian authorities admit only to "the occasional case of human rights abuses."10 One factor underlying Egypt's failure to investigate and punish acts of torture by law enforcement officers may be the apparent conflict of interest in placing the responsibility to monitor places of detention, order forensic exams, and investigate and prosecute abuses by officials within the same office that is responsible for ordering arrests, obtaining confessions, and successfully prosecuting criminal suspects.
Medical evidence is crucial to determining whether torture has been committed. In the absence of medical evidence or a forensic report the Prosecutor General need not undertake an investigation, much less a criminal prosecution, but access to specialists in the Justice Ministry's department of forensic medicine requires referral by the Prosecutor General or a court. The Prosecutor General is under no obligation to provide a referral in prompt and timely manner.
The government's failure to investigate promptly and impartially credible allegations of torture and ill-treatment of political detainees and ordinary citizens, even in many cases of death in custody, has fostered a culture of impunity and contributed to the institutionalization of torture. In the rare instances where the courts have convicted officials of torture, penalties have been lenient. The authorities do not provide information on the number of complaints received, and have seldom divulged criminal, administrative or civil actions taken in relation to incidents of death in custody or torture and ill-treatment.
Under Egyptian law, victims of torture and the dependent heirs of those who have died in custody may file a claim at the administrative court for compensation and for violations of personal freedoms protected by the Constitution. Victims of torture are usually reluctant to bring civil lawsuits for fear of retribution by the perpetrators and a desire to put the experience behind them.11 In addition, when plaintiffs are successful the courts rarely award compensation that is "fair and adequate," as mandated by Article 14(1) of the Convention against Torture.12 This, coupled with the absence of an effective system of criminal prosecution of torturers, makes torture very "affordable" for the Egyptian government.
The U.N. Committee against Torture, the U.N. Human Rights Committee and the U.N. Special Rapporteur on Torture have consistently expressed concern at the persistence of torture and cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment at the hands of law-enforcement personnel, in particular the security services. These bodies also criticized the lack of investigations into such practices, punishment of those responsible, and reparation for the victims.13
Despite Egypt's lamentable record on torture and ill-treatment, in recent years several countries, including the United States and Sweden, have extradited or rendered into Egyptian custody persons wanted by the government for alleged security-related offenses.14

Recommendations to the Government of Egypt

I) Policy Initiatives and Administrative Reforms:

Acknowledge the scale of torture in Egypt and its serious implications for Egyptian society. Initiate broad public and internal debate involving the Ministry of Interior, the Prosecutor General, the People's Assembly, the presidency, and relevant nongovernmental organizations about causes of and solutions for the problem of torture.
Issue and publicize widely a directive from the President of the Republic stating clearly that acts of torture and ill-treatment by law-enforcement officials will not be tolerated and that reports of torture and ill-treatment will be promptly and thoroughly investigated and perpetrators will be criminally prosecuted.
Direct the Office of the Prosecutor General to fulfil its responsibility under Egyptian law to investigate all torture allegations against law enforcement officials, including allegations filed by a third party (for instance, a human rights organization).
Establish an independent body, under the authority of the judiciary and comprising judicial, legal, and medical experts known for their independence and integrity, to oversee investigations of allegations of torture and ill-treatment by law enforcement officials and to evaluate the performance of the Office of the Prosecutor General with respect to due diligence in this regard.
Insure the independence of the Office of the Prosecutor General from political interference and activate prosecutorial oversight of all places of detention. Mandate prosecutors to conduct unannounced inspections of all places of detention, speaking to all inmates in conditions of privacy, and taking complaints.
End the practice of arresting children considered to be "vulnerable to delinquency" or "vulnerable to danger" and ensure that no child is subject to arrest, detention, or imprisonment except as a measure of last resort, and then only for the shortest possible time. In all such cases, children should be held separately from adults unless it is in their best interest to do otherwise.
Ensure that victims of torture have prompt access to medical care and forensic medical examinations and remove obstacles to the use of independent forensic examinations in criminal proceedings,
Maintain and make available to the public at least on an annual basis information and statistics regarding allegations and complaints of torture filed, and the legal and administrative responses to those allegations and complaints.
II) Legal Reforms:

Amend Article 126 of the Penal Code to make the definition of torture consistent with Article 1 of the Convention against Torture.
Amend provisions prohibiting torture and ill-treatment by officials, in particular Penal Code Article 129 on the use of cruelty by officials, and Article 280 on illegal detention, to make the penalties commensurate with the seriousness of the offenses and reclassify these offences as felonies rather than misdemeanours.
Amend Articles 210 and 232 of the Penal Code to allow persons filing complaints of police abuse to challenge any prosecutorial decision not to investigate credible allegations of torture or not to prosecute those suspected of committing acts of torture and ill-treatment.
III) Transparency and international obligations:

Ratify the first Optional Protocol to the ICCPR to allow the Human Rights Committee to receive and consider individual complaints regarding violations of the ICCPR.
Make the necessary declaration under Article 22 of the Convention against Torture allowing the U.N. Committee against Torture to receive and consider individual complaints submitted by victims of torture and ill-treatment.
Invite the U.N. Special Rapporteur on Torture and the U.N. Working Group on Arbitrary Detention to visit and report on conditions in Egypt.
Ratify the Optional Protocol to the Convention against Torture (2002) under which state parties agree to allow independent international experts to conduct regular visits to places of detention within the country; to establish national mechanism to conduct visits to places of detention; and to cooperate with the international experts.
Recommendations to the Arab League
Call upon the Egyptian government to respect and comply fully with the principles and obligations laid down in the Arab Charter on Human Rights (1994), and specifically to meet its obligations under Article 13 of the Charter, which reads:
"(a) The States parties shall protect every person in their territory

from being subjected to physical or mental torture or cruel, inhuman or
degrading treatment. They shall take effective measures to prevent such
acts and shall regard the practice thereof, or participation therein, as
a punishable offence."

Recommendations to the African Union

Call upon the government of Egypt to respect its commitments under the African Charter on Human and Peoples' Rights (1981), and to take effective steps in accordance with the Guidelines and Measures for the Prohibition and Prevention of Torture, Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment in Africa, adopted in 2002 by the African Commission on Human and Peoples' Rights, to end the practice of torture in Egypt.
Request that Egypt invite a committee of experts from the African Commission on Human and Peoples' Rights to investigate and report on the problem of torture and ill-treatment of detainees.
Recommendations to the International Community
Raise with the government of Egypt in all official meetings concerns over widespread torture and ill-treatment of detainees in police stations and security interrogation facilities.
Insist that Egypt take concrete and effective legal and policy steps to end the practice of torture and ill-treatment to hold accountable those responsible, and to provide fair and adequate redress for victims of torture.
Assist the Egyptian government with training programs for police, prosecutors, judges, and forensic doctors, with special emphasis on combating torture and treating the victims of torture and ill-treatment.
? Decline to extradite or render to the Egyptian authorities any person until the government has taken concrete and effective steps to stop the practice of torture and hold criminally responsible those law enforcement officials who order, condone, or commit such acts. Do not accept diplomatic assurances as sufficient for purposes of extradition or rendition.



Egypt: Reported Deaths in Custody owing to Torture and Ill-Treatment, 2003
Name & Age Date of Detention Date of Death in Custody Place of Detention Actions Taken Source

`Abdullah Rizq `Abd al-Latif May 2003 October 6th police station EOHR communication

Ahmad Muhammad `Umar June 1, 2003 July 6, 2003 al-Mahalla al-Kubra police station AHRLA communication

Ragab Muhammad `Afifi Zidan July 16, 2003 July 16, 2003 al-Minia police station Family filed case with Public Prosecution office. Forensic doctor confirmed that body did not show signs of suicide, contrary to claims made by the authorities. EOHR communication

Muhammad `Abd al-Sattar al-Rubi, 26 September 12, 2003 September 12, 2003 Ebshiwai detention center, Tibhar, al-Fayyum Family filed case with Public Prosecution office. Forensic Doctor assigned to the case. HRCAP communication

Muhammad `Abd al-Qadir, 31 September 14, 2003 September 21, 2003 Hadayyiq al-Qubba police station AHRLA communication

Mahmud Gabr Muhammad October 4, 2003 al-Sayyida Zainab police station EOHR communication

Mus`ad Muhammad Qutb, 43 November 1, 2003 November 6, 2003 al-Duqi police station EOHR communication

Egypt: Reported Deaths in Custody owing to Torture and Ill-Treatment, 2002
Name & Age Date of Detention Date of Death in Custody Place of Detention Actions Taken Source

Sayyid Khalifa `Issa, 24 January 26, 2002 Unknown Nasr City police station 2 officers sentenced to 3 years in prison on August 8, 2002; 2 others acquitted; 4 officers received one year suspended sentences and 1000 L.E fines EOHR annual report

Ahmad Taha Yusif, 42 February 23, 2002 February 23, 2002 al-Wayli police station Case referred to Cairo Criminal Court July 11, 2002 EOHR annual report

Midhat Fahmy `Ali, 35 March 10, 2002 March 10, 2002 al-Gumruk police station Pending charges against one police officer for cruelty EOHR annual report

Muhammad Mahmud `Uthman, 25 May 27, 2002 May 28, 2002 Masr al-Qadima police station Complaints filed by family & EOHR EOHR annual report

Mustafa Labib Abu Zaid, 25 Was already in prison July 3, 2002 Shubra police station Complaints filed by family & EOHR EOHR annual report

Muhammad Muhammad Shahin, 44 June 18, 2002 July 8, 2002 Wadi al-Natrun 430 prison EOHR annual report

Nabih Muhammad `Ali Shahin, 33 June 18, 2002 July 8, 2002 Wadi al-Natrun 430 prison EOHR annual report

Ibrahim `Umar Mustafa, 29 August 8, 2002 August 10, 2002 Giza police station Complaints filed by family & EOHR EOHR annual report

Shibl Bayumi Ibrahim, 32 September 11, 2002 Unknown Tanta Security Directorate Family & EOHR complaints EOHR annual report

Ahmad Khalil Ibrahim, 35 October 1, 2002 October 4, 2002 al-Gumruk police station Family & EOHR complaints EOHR annual report


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1 See, for example: Human Rights Watch World Report 2003,(New York, 2003), p. 434; World Report 2002 (New York, 2002), pp. 415-16; World Report 2001 (New York, 2000), pp. 373-74; World Report 2000 (New York, 1999), p. 346; World Report 1999 (New York, 1998), pp. 347-48.

2 Human Rights Watch, Security Forces Abuse of Anti-War Demonstrators, Vol. 15, No.10(E), November 2003.

3 These categories, set forth in Egypt's Child Law 12 of 1996, have become a pretext for mass arrest campaigns to clear the streets of children, obtain information about possible criminal activity, and force children to move on to other neighborhoods.

4 Charged with being Children: Egyptian Police Abuse Children in Need of Protection, HRW Vol. 15, No. 1(E), February 2003.

5 Human Rights Watch, "Egypt: Crackdown on Homosexual Men Continues," October 7, 2003.

6 Human Rights Center for the Assistance of Prisoners Press Release, "Citizen dies while in the State Security station in Ebsheway, Governorate of Al-Fayoum," September 22, 2003.

7 The Association for Human Rights Legal Aid Press Release, "The series of torture continues," September 30, 2003.

8 Egyptian Organization for Human Rights Press Release, "EOHR calls for investigating the death of a citizen in the office of the State Security Investigations in Gaber Ibn Hayaan," November 6, 2003.

9 EOHR Press Release, November 6, 2003: http://www.eohr.org/press/2003/8-1103.htm

10 U.N. Committee against Torture, Summary Record of the 385th meeting, May 14, 1999, U.N. doc. CAT/C/SR.385, Para. 11.

11 According to the Egyptian Human Rights Center for the Assistance of Prisoners in the majority of cases of torture, torture victims "prefer not to file lawsuit either due to fear of the perpetrators or to their relief at being released from the hell they experienced." Torture in Egypt: A Judicial Reality, HRCAP, March 18, 2001, page 27.

12 In 2000, only in four cases were victims of torture awarded compensation. The sum of awards ranged between 2,000 to 10,000 Egyptian pounds ($570 to 2,860 U.S.). The government told the Committee against Torture in 2001 that a total of seventeen compensation awards were made to victims in the period between 1997-2000.

13 United Nations, Conclusions and Recommendations of the Committee against Torture: Egypt, CAT/C/CR/29/4, December 23, 2002; United Nations, Concluding Observations of the Human Rights Committee: Egypt, CCPR/CO/76/EGY, November 28, 2002; United Nations Economic and Social Council; Report of the Special Rapporteur on Torture to the Commission on Human Rights, Question of the Human Rights of all persons subjected to any form of detention or imprisonment, in particular: Torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment, E/CN.4/1996/35, January 9, 1996.

14 See, for example: Anthony Shadid, "America Prepares the War on Terror: U.S., Egypt Raids Caught Militants," Boston Globe, October 7,2001; Rajiv Chandrasekaran and Peter Finn, "U.S. Behind Secret Transfer of Terror Suspects," Washington Post, March 11, 2002; Anthony Shadid, "In Shift, Sweden Extradites Militants to Egypt," Boston Globe, December 31, 2001.



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Egypt: Crackdown on Homosexual Conduct Exposes Torture Crisis
(Cairo, March 1, 2004) -- The Egyptian government continues to arrest and routinely torture men suspected of consensual homosexual conduct, Human Rights Watch said in a report released today. The detention and torture of hundreds of men reveals the fragility of legal protections for individual privacy and due process for all Egyptians.
"The prohibition against torture is absolute and universal, regardless of the victim," said Kenneth Roth, executive director of Human Rights Watch. "Accepting torture of unpopular victims--whether for their political opinions or their sexual conduct--makes it easier for the government to use this despicable practice on many others."
The 144-page report, "In a Time of Torture: The Assault on Justice in Egypt's Crackdown on Homosexual Conduct," documents the government's increasing repression of men who have sex with men. The trial of 52 men in 2001 for the "habitual practice of debauchery"--the legal charge used to criminalize homosexual conduct in Egyptian law--was only the most visible point in the ongoing and expanding crackdown.
Today, Egyptian police use wiretaps and a growing web of informers to conduct raids on private homes or seize suspects on the street. Undercover police agents arrange meetings with men through chat rooms and personal advertisements on the Internet--and then arrest them.
Police routinely torture men suspected of homosexual conduct. The report cites testimonies of victims telling how they were bound, suspended in painful positions, burned with cigarettes or submerged in ice-cold water, and subjected to electroshock on their limbs and genitals. Numerous testimonies in the report accuse Taha Embaby, head of Cairo's Vice Squad, of direct participation in torture.
Doctors participate in torturing suspected homosexuals, under the guise of collecting forensic evidence to support the charge of "habitual debauchery," Human Rights Watch found. Prosecutors refer suspects to the Forensic Medical Authority, an arm of Egypt's Ministry of Justice. Doctors there compel the men to strip and kneel; they massage, dilate and in some cases penetrate the prisoners' anal cavities, subjecting them to intrusive, abusive, and degrading examinations to "prove" the men have committed homosexual acts.
Human Rights Watch called on the government to reform the criminal justice system to protect all citizens against torture and abuse. It also called on the government to end arrests and prosecutions based on adult, consensual homosexual conduct.
Five Egyptian human rights organizations--the Egyptian Association Against Torture, the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, the Hisham Mubarak Law Center, the Nadim Center for the Psychological Management and Rehabilitation of Victims of Violence, and the Arabic Network for Human Rights Information--joined Human Rights Watch in Cairo to launch the report. They also joined in releasing the Arabic-language version of "Security Forces Abuse of Anti-War Demonstrators," Human Rights Watch's November report on arrests and torture of antiwar demonstrators during March and April 2003
"These reports together document a crisis in Egypt's criminal justice system," said Roth, who presented the report at a press conference in Cairo. "Impunity for torture and arbitrary arrest puts all Egyptians' rights at risk."
In its November report, Human Rights Watch documented excessive use of force by security forces to disperse demonstrators protesting the U.S.-led war against Iraq in March and April 2003. After arresting hundreds of protesters, police beat and mistreated many detainees--some to the point of torture--and failed to give medical care to seriously injured persons. Some of those beaten and tortured at the time filed official complaints with Egypt's Prosecutor General, requiring that office to investigate the allegations. Nearly a year after the arrests and complaints, the Prosecutor General has failed to launch an investigation.
Human Rights Watch has documented arbitrary detention and torture in Egypt for more than a decade. In 1992 the organization published "Behind Closed Doors: Torture and Detention in Egypt," a 219-page report that examined the routine use of torture, particularly against alleged Islamist activists and sympathizers, by the State Security Investigations Office (SSI) of the Ministry of Interior.
"It saddens me that Human Rights Watch has been documenting torture in Egypt for over a decade," said Roth, who also released the 1992 report at a press conference in Cairo. "The government's recent initiatives to improve its human rights image mean nothing unless it lives up to its obligation to investigate and punish those responsible for torture."

"In a Time of Torture: The Assault on Justice In Egypt's Crackdown on Homosexual Conduct" is available in English at http://hrw.org/reports/2004/egypt0304/

To read testimonies from the report, please see: http://hrw.org/english/docs/2004/02/27/egypt7675.htm

To read a recent Human Rights Watch briefing paper on police abuse and torture of detainees in Egypt, please see: http://hrw.org/english/docs/2004/02/26/egypt7660.htm

Posted by maximpost at 5:21 PM EST
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Sunday, 29 February 2004

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Iran, Syria vow to expand military cooperation
Iranian Minister of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani said in Damascus Friday that Iran and Syria would boost their bilateral security cooperation to guarantee the security in the Middle East region.
Speaking to IRNA after inking a military and defense
agreement between the two sides, he said they have pledged to make every effort to preserve the security in the region.
He stressed the importance of expanding defense cooperation with Syria and hoped his visit to Damascus would lead to more palpable results in the area of defense and security cooperation.
For his part, Syrian Defense Minister Major General Mustafa Tlas expressed satisfaction over his Iranian counterpart`s visit to Syria and termed it important in light of the current sensitive regional and international situation.
He it is important for both countries to cooperate on security.
Commenting on the US pressure on Syria and the alleged infiltration of Muslim fighters into Iraq through Syrian borders, Tlas said Syria has become accustomed to US pressures and such issues would not lead to neglecting the country`s goals.
Iran's top nuclear negotiator holds talks in India Iran's top nuclear negotiator was in New Delhi on Thursday for talks with Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
Hasan Rowhani, head of Iran's powerful Supreme National Security Council, was also scheduled to meet Brajesh
Mishra, India's national security adviser, the Associated Press quoted officials as saying.
India is a member of the 35-nation IAEA, whose board is convening in Vienna on March 8.
The officials said Rowhani was in New Delhi for scheduled meetings which are part of an India-Iran strategic dialogue.
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Iranian DM arrives in Damascus for military talks
Iran's Minister of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani arrived in Damascus on Wednesday on an official visit to Syria.
Upon arrival in the Damascus international airport, Shamkhani was welcomed by Syrian Minister of Defence Major General Mostafa Tlas, as well as a number of political and top figures of Syria, IRNA reoprted.
Iranian envoy to Syria Mohammad Reza Baqeri and a number of officials at the Iranian institutions and embassy to Damascus were also present at the airport along with the Syrian officials.
Shamkhani is in Syria on the first leg of a four-day official visit which would take him also to Lebanon.
During his stay in Syria, Shamkhani will hold talks with Syrian top-brass officials and would visit some military sites and centers as well as the defensive industrial unites of Syria.
Shamkhani, upon arrival, said that the scientific and industrial cooperation between Iran and Syria in defense and security fields will be high on agenda.
He told reporters that the two sides are to review the level of cooperation in various fields, in particular in the political, security and defense arenas.
In his two-day visit to Damascus, the Iranian Defense Minister will meet the Syrian President and commander-in-chief of the armed forces Bashar Assad, Foreign Minister Farouk al-Shara, Defense Minister Mostafa Tlas and commander of the army and armed forces headquarters Major General Hassan Tourkamani.
During his stay, Shamkhani and the accompanying delegation will also sign a defense and military memorandum of understanding. The Iranian delegation will leave Damascus for Beirut on Friday.
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Iran says Rumsfeld understands nothing regarding Iraq, Middle East
Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi said Tuesday that establishment of stability and security in Iraq would strengthen regional security.
In a reaction to recent remarks made by US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, Asefi said, "Iran has always took steps to establish stability and security in Iraq because it considers security and stability in that country as (a factor) in strengthening t he security of the region."
According to IRNA, he said the Islamic Republic of Iran does not allow any group to infiltrate into Iraq through Iranian borders and will encounter any illegal measures strongly. "It is surprising that the US Defense Secretary does not tend to understand realities in Iraq and in the region," Asefi added.
On Monday, Rumsfeld warned Iran and Syria about fighters crossing their borders into Iraq. "Syria and Iran have not been helpful to the people of Iraq," he told journalists during a visit to Baghdad. "Indeed they have been unhelpful."
"We know Iran has harbored Al-Qaeda, we know they had people moving across the border. They were certainly aware of that." "We know Syria has been a hospitable place for escaping Iraqis" following the US-led invasion of Iraq last year, he added.

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Syria slams US human right report as Powell ''disappointed'' with Assad policy
A Syrian legislator responded Thursday to U.S. criticism of its human rights record by saying the annual State Department report represented a "blatant and meaningless interference in other countries' internal affairs".
Syria was one of more that 150 states included in the U.S. report, which covers numerous issues such as the state of democracy, freedom of speech and religion in countries around the world.
The report, released Wednesday, claimed Syria used torture, limited the right of free speech and assembly and allowed no political opposition.
On his part, Suleiman Hadad, a Syrian legislator and a former assistant foreign minister, told reporters that the United States could not talk about human rights as it is an aggressive country, occupying a foreign land.
According to IRIB, he said there was no problem with human rights in Syria, which had embarked on a democratic process.
However Haitham Maleh, the chairman of the committees for the defence of human rights in Syria, acknowledged that there are many violations of human rights in Syria, but also rejected any interference from any foreign country.
On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Colin Powell said he was "disappointed" with Syria's Middle East policy, and that relations between Damascus and Washington were "not as I would like them to be."
"I think it is time for Syria to really take a hard look at the policies they followed in the past and whether those policies are relevant to the future in light of what's happened in Iraq," Powell said in an interview with the US Middle East television channel Al Hurra.
"I think it's time for Syrian President Bashar Assad to start looking at steps he might take to change his relationship with the United States and his relationship with the other countries in the region," Powell said in a transcript of the interview.

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CIA: Hizbullah to attack US, Israeli targets if Syria, Iran invaded
The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has warned that Hizbullah would launch a war of "terror" against US and Israeli interests around the globe if either Syria, or Iran, or both, are attacked or invaded like Iraq.
This warning came in a testimony made by CIA chief, George Tenet, to the Senate Select Intelligence Committee at the U.S. Congress in Washington on Tuesday.
According to Tenet, the Bush administration's war against global terrorism had made "important inroads" in the past two years.

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Report: Israel sends to Hizbullah ''by mistake'' body of Jewish man
Hizbullah is demanding that Israel give it the bodies of 30 fighters in exchange for the body of a man that Israel mistakenly transferred to the Lebanese resistance movement, a Nazareth-based newspaper reported Friday.
The corpse in Hizbullah's hands was accidentally sent during the January 29 prisoner swap in place of Mohammed Biro, a Lebanese drug dealer who died in an Israeli prison 11 months ago.
The newspaper, Kul Al-Arab, quoted a senior Lebanese official saying the body Israel forwarded is that of a Jewish man.
Meanwhile, an Israeli source told Army Radio on Friday that he was not aware of any demand from Hizbullah, but that Israel intends to return Biro's body to Lebanon in any event.


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Saudi Arabia tightens controls on charities
In response to Western claims that Saudi charities fund terrorism, the Kingdom has set up a special agency that will oversee the nation's fund raising abroad.
According to SPA, the Saudi National Commission for Relief and Charity Work Abroad will "protect Saudi charitable work from any harmful activities that might undermine it or tarnish its reputation." The commission will announce its regulations following its official launch in the coming weeks.
The commission will be managed by a group of Saudi nationals known for their expertise in the field of charity work, stated a royal decree.
Saudi Arabia has been facing US pressure to prevent charitable donations from reaching Islamist activists abroad. Last month, the governments of Saudi Arabia and the United States asked the United Nations (UN) to add Saudi-based Al-Haramain Foundation to a list of groups whose assets are to be blocked as part of a financial squeeze on Osama Bin Laden's Al-Qaeda network. -- (menareport.com)
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Saudi Arabia, Egypt oppose reforms imposed from abroad
Egypt and Saudi Arabia stressed on Tuesday that Arab states are following a development, upgrading and reform path that matches with their peoples' interests and values and rejecting any reform ?style imposed on Arab and Islamic states from abroad.?
These comments came in a joint declaration issued on conclusion of the short visit paid by President Hosni Mubarak to the kingdom after talks he held with King Fahd bin Abdulaziz and Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz.


Posted by maximpost at 8:12 PM EST
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>> ...
Full text of white paper on China's non-proliferation policy and measures

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2003-03/10/content_815429.htm
www.chinaview.cn 2003-12-03 15:44:23

BEIJING, Dec. 3 (Xinhuanet) -- The Information Office of the State Council Wednesday issued a white paper on China's non-proliferation policy and measures. The following is the full text of the 24-page white paper with the title "China's Non-Proliferation Policy and Measures."

Foreword

To prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their means of delivery is conducive to the preservation of international and regional peace and security, and compatible with the common interests of the international community. This hasbecome a consensus of the international community. Through protracted and unremitting efforts, the international community has established a relatively complete international non-proliferation regime, which has played a positive role in preventing and slowing down the proliferation of WMD and their means of delivery, and in safeguarding peace and security both regional and global.
Economic globalization and the rapid advancement of science andtechnology have provided the international community good opportunities for cooperation and development, and also many new challenges. At present, traditional and non-traditional security factors are inter-woven, with the latter being steadily on the rise. Countries are linked more closely to each other in security matters, and their interdependence is continually deepening. It isan inevitable demand of the times to strengthen international cooperation and seek common security for all countries. The non-proliferation efforts of all countries and the development of the international non-proliferation mechanism are mutually complementary and inseparably linked with each other. Given the new international security situation, it is particularly importantand urgent to step up international cooperation in the field of non-proliferation, and develop and improve the international non-proliferation mechanism.
The purpose of China's foreign policy is to help safeguard world peace and promote common development. A developing China needs both an international and a peripheral environment of long-term peace and stability. The proliferation of WMD and their meansof delivery benefits neither world peace and stability nor China'sown security. Over the years, with its strong sense of responsibility, China has step by step formulated a whole set of non-proliferation policies and put in place a fairly complete legal framework on non-proliferation and export control. It has taken positive and constructive measures to accelerate the international non-proliferation process with concrete actions, thus making significant contributions to safeguarding and promoting international and regional peace and security.

I. China's Basic Stand on Non-Proliferation

China has always taken a responsible attitude toward international affairs, stood for the complete prohibition and thorough destruction of all kinds of WMD, including nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, and resolutely opposed the proliferation of such weapons and their means of delivery. China does not support, encourage or assist any country to develop WMD and their means of delivery.
China holds that the fundamental purpose of non-proliferation is to safeguard and promote international and regional peace and security, and all measures to this end should be conducive to attaining this goal. The proliferation of WMD and their means of delivery has its complicated causes; it has everything to do with the international and regional security environment. To pursue theuniversal improvement of international relations, to promote the democratization of such relations and to accelerate fair and rational settlement of the security issues of regions concerned will help international non-proliferation efforts to proceed in a smooth manner. China resolutely supports international non-proliferation efforts, and at the same time cares very much for peace and stability in the region and the world at large. China stands for the attainment of the non-proliferation goal through peaceful means, i.e. on the one hand, the international non-proliferation mechanism must be continually improved and export controls of individual countries must be updated and strengthened,and on the other hand, proliferation issues must be settled through dialogue and international cooperation.
China maintains that a universal participation of the international community is essential for progress in non-proliferation. To gain an understanding and support of the overwhelming majority of the international community, it is highlyimportant to ensure a fair, rational and non-discriminatory non-proliferation regime. Either the improvement of the existing regime or the establishment of a new one should be based on the universal participation of all countries and on their decisions made through a democratic process. Unilateralism and double standards must be abandoned, and great importance should be attached and full play given to the role of the United Nations.
China believes that given the dual-use nature of many of the materials, equipment and technologies involved in nuclear, biological, chemical and aerospace fields, it is important that all countries, in the course of implementing their non-proliferation policies, strike a proper balance between non-proliferation and international cooperation for peaceful use of the relevant high technologies. In this connection, China maintains that, while it is necessary to guarantee the rights of all countries, especially the developing nations, to utilize and share dual-use scientific and technological achievements and products for peaceful purposes subject to full compliance with thenon-proliferation goal, it is also necessary to prevent any country from engaging in proliferation under the pretext of peaceful utilization.

II. Actively Participating in International Non-Proliferation Efforts

Over the years, China has participated extensively in the construction of the multilateral non-proliferation mechanism and actively promoted its constant improvement and development. China has signed all international treaties related to non-proliferation,and joined most of the relevant international organizations.
In the nuclear field, China joined the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in 1984, and voluntarily placed its civilian nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards. It acceded to the Treatyon the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in 1992. It tookan active part in the negotiations of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva and made important contributions to the conclusion of the treaty. China was also among the first countries to sign CTBT in 1996. China became a member of the Zangger Committee in 1997. China signed the Protocol Additional to the Agreement Between China and IAEA for the Application of Safeguards in China in 1998, and in early 2002 formally completed the domestic legal procedures necessary for the entry into force of the Additional Protocol, thus becoming the first nuclear-weapon state to complete the relevant procedures. China actively participated in the work of the IAEA, the Preparatory Commission for the CTBTO and other related international organizations. It supported the IAEA's contribution to the prevention of potential nuclear terrorist activities, and took an active and constructive part in the revision of the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials.
China has energetically backed up countries concerned in their efforts to establish nuclear-weapon-free zones. It has signed and ratified the protocols to the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean (Treaty of Tlatelolco), the South Pacific Nuclear-Free Zone Treaty (Treaty ofRarotonga), and the African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty (Treaty of Pelindaba). China has expressly committed itself to signing the protocol to the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty (Treaty of Bangkok) and supported the initiative for the establishment of a Central Asian nuclear-weapon-free zone.
In the biological field, China has always strictly observed itsobligations under the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction (BWC) sinceits accession in 1984. As from 1988, it has, on an annual basis, submitted to the United Nations the declaration data of the confidence-building measures for the BWC in accordance with the decision of its Review Conference. China has also enthusiasticallycontributed to the international efforts aimed at enhancing the BWC effectiveness, and actively participated in the negotiations on the protocol to the BWC and in international affairs related tothe BWC.
In the chemical field, China has made a positive contribution to the negotiation and conclusion of the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use ofChemical Weapons and on Their Destruction (CWC). It signed the Convention in 1993 and deposited its instrument of ratification in1997. Since the CWC came into force, China has stood firmly by theOrganization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) in carrying out its work, and earnestly fulfilled its obligations under the CWC. China has set up the National Authority for the performance of its obligations envisaged in the CWC, and submittedinitial and annual declarations of all kinds on schedule and in their entirety. By the end of October 2003, China had received 68 on-site verifications by the OPCW.
In the missile field, China supports the international community in its efforts to prevent the proliferation of missiles and related technologies and materials, and adopts a positive and open attitude toward all international proposals for strengtheningthe missile non-proliferation mechanism. China has constructively participated in the work of the UN Group of Governmental Experts on Missiles, as well as the international discussions on the draftof the International Code of Conduct Against Ballistic Missile Proliferation and the proposal of a Global Control System.

III. Non-Proliferation Export Control System

Effective control of materials, equipment and technologies thatcould be used in the development and production of WMD and their means of delivery is an important aspect in a country's implementation of its international non-proliferation obligation, and an important guarantee for the success of the international non-proliferation efforts. As a country with some sci-tech and industrial capabilities, China is well aware of its non-proliferation responsibility in this field. For a long time, the Chinese government has adopted rigorous measures both for the domestic control of sensitive items and technologies and for theirexport control, and has kept making improvements in light of the changing situation.
For a fairly long time in the past, China practiced a planned economy, whereby the state relied mainly on administrative measures for import and export control. This proved to be effective for implementing the non-proliferation policy under the then prevailing historical conditions. But with the deepening of China's reform and opening-up, and especially following the country's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), the environment of China's domestic economy and foreign trade has undergone a tremendous change. So far, China has initially established a socialist market economy, and its non-proliferation export control pattern has shifted from an administrative control to a law-based control.
In recent years, the Chinese government has constantly strengthened the work of building a legal system to bolster non-proliferation on the principle of rule of law to ensure the effective enforcement of its non-proliferation policy. China has attached great importance to studies on the current international standards of non-proliferation export control. Integrating the multinational export control mechanism and the valuable experienceof other countries with its own national conditions, China has widely adopted the current international standards and practices, vigorously strengthened and improved the system for ensuring non-proliferation export control, and formulated and enacted a number of laws and regulations, which form a complete system for the export control of nuclear, biological, chemical, missile and othersensitive items and technologies, and all military products, and provide a full legal basis and mechanism guarantee for the better attainment of the non-proliferation goal. This export control regime has embraced the following practices:
Export Registration System: All exporters of sensitive items ortechnologies must be registered with the competent departments of the Central Government. Without the registration, no entity or individual is permitted to engage in such exports. Only designatedentities are authorized to handle nuclear exports and the export of controlled chemicals and military products. No other entity or individual is permitted to go in for trade activities in this respect.
Licensing System: It is stipulated that the export of sensitiveitems and technologies shall be subject to examination and approval by the competent departments of the Central Government ona case-by-case basis. No license, no exports. The holder of an export license must engage in export activities strictly as prescribed by the license within its period of validity. If any export item or contents are changed, the original license must be returned and an application made for a new export license. When exporting the above-mentioned items and technologies, an exporter shall produce the export license to the Customs, go through the Customs formalities as stipulated by the Customs Law of the People's Republic of China and the relevant control regulations and control measures, and be subject to supervision and control by the Customs.


End-User and End-Use Certification: An exporter of sensitive items and technologies is required to provide a certificate specifying the end-user and the end-use, produced by the end-user that imports them. Different kinds of certificates must be produced, depending on the circumstances and particularly the sensitivity of the exported items or technologies. In some cases, the certificates must be produced by the end-user and authenticated by the official organ of the end-user's country and the Chinese embassy or consulate in that country, while in others,they must be produced by the relevant government department of theimporting country. The end-user must clarify the end-user and end-use of the imported materials or technologies in the above-mentioned certificates, and definitely guarantee that without permission from the Chinese government, it shall not use the relevant item provided by China for purposes other than the certified end-use, or transfer it to a third party other than the certified end-user.
List Control Method: China has drawn up detailed control lists of sensitive materials, equipment and technologies. In the nuclear,biological and chemical fields, the relevant lists cover virtuallyall of the materials and technologies included in the control lists of the Zangger Committee, the Nuclear Suppliers' Group, the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), and the Australian Group. In the missile field, the scope of the Chinese list is generally the same as the Technical Annex of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). In the arms export field, the Chinese government also drew on the experience of the relevant multilateral mechanismand the relevant practice of other countries when it first formulated and issued the arms export control list in 2002. The Chinese government will make timely adjustments to the above listsin light of actual conditions.
Principle of Non-Proliferation-Oriented Examination and Approval: Before making a decision on whether to issue an export license, the competent department will give overall consideration to the possible effect of the relevant exports on national security and the interests of general public, as well as its effect on international and regional peace and stability. The specific factors for reference in the examination and approval process include China's incumbent international obligations and international commitments, whether the export of the sensitive items or technologies will directly or indirectly jeopardize China's national security or public interests, or constitute a potential threat, and whether it conforms to the international non-proliferation situation and China's foreign policy. An assessment of the degree of proliferation risk of exporting a sensitive item or technology shall be made by an independent panel of technical experts organized by the examination and approval department.
The assessment will serve as an important reference in the examination and approval process. The examination and approval department shall also make an overall examination of the situationof the country or the region where the end-user is located. It shall give special consideration to whether there is any risk of proliferation in the country where the end-user is located or any risk of proliferation to a third country or region, including: whether the importing country will present a potential threat to China's national security; whether it has a program for the development of WMD and their means of delivery; whether it has close trade ties with a country or region having a program for thedevelopment of WMD and their means of delivery; whether it is subject to sanctions under a UN Security Council resolution; and whether it supports terrorism or has any links with terrorist organizations. Moreover, the examination and approval department shall also pay attention to the ability of the importing country in exercising export control and whether its domestic political situation and surrounding environment are stable. The focus of examination of the end-user and end-use is to judge the ability ofthe importing country to use the imported items or technologies, and to assess whether the importer and the end-user are authentic and reliable, and whether the end-use is justified.
"Catch-all" Principle: If an exporter knows or should know thatthere is a risk of proliferation of an item or technology to be exported, the exporter is required to apply for an export license even if the item or technology does not figure in the export control list. When considering an export application or deciding on whether to issue an export license, the export examination and approval departments shall make an overall assessment of the end-use and end-user of the item or technology to be exported and the risk of proliferation of WMD. Once such a risk is identified, the competent departments have the right to immediately refuse the requested export license, and terminate the export activity. Moreover, the competent departments may also exercise, on an ad hoc basis, export control on specific items not contained on the relevant control list.
Penalties: Exporters who export controlled items or technologies without approval, arbitrarily export items beyond theapproved scope, or forge, alter, buy or sell export licenses shallbe investigated for criminal liability in accordance with provisions in the Criminal Law of the People's Republic of China (PRC) on smuggling, illegal business operation, disclosure of statesecrets or other crimes. For cases that do not constitute crimes, the competent government department shall impose administrative sanctions, including warning, confiscation of illicit proceeds, fines, suspension or even revocation of foreign trade licenses.


IV. Concrete Measures for Non-Proliferation Export Control

In the nuclear field, China has persisted in exercising stringent control over nuclear exports and nuclear materials. In nuclear materials control, since its accession to the IAEA, China has established a "State System for the Accountancy and Control ofNuclear Materials," and a "Nuclear Materials Security System" thatmeasures up to the requirements of the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials. In 1987, the Chinese government issued the Regulations on the Control of Nuclear Materials. Under the regulations it instituted a licensing system for nuclear materials. It designated the department for supervision and control over nuclear materials and defined its duties, the measures for nuclear materials control, the application for, and examination and issuance of, nuclear materials licenses, the management of nuclear materials accounts, the accountancy of nuclear materials, the physical protection of nuclear materials, and relevant rewards and punishments.
China's nuclear export is handled exclusively by the companies designated by the State Council. China adheres to the following three principles: guarantee for peaceful use only, acceptance of the safeguards of the IAEA, and no retransfer to a third country without the prior consent of the Chinese government. The Chinese government issued the Regulations of the PRC on the Control of Nuclear Export in 1997. Apart from the above-mentioned three principles, the regulations also expound on China's policy of not advocating, not encouraging and not engaging in the proliferation of nuclear weapons, not helping other countries develop nuclear weapons, not providing any assistance to any nuclear facility not placed under IAEA safeguards, not providing nuclear exports to it,and not conducting personnel and technological exchange or cooperation with it. The regulations also provide for a rigorous examination system for nuclear export, severe violation punishments and a comprehensive and detailed control list.
In 1998, the Chinese government promulgated the Regulations of the PRC on the Control of Nuclear Dual-Use Items and Related Technologies Export. Therein it reaffirms its determination of strictly performing its international nuclear non-proliferation obligations and exercising strict control over the export of nuclear dual-use items and related technologies, and it instituted a licensing system for related exports. It established a registration system for exporters and the procedures for the examination and approval of exports, and defined punishments for violations of the regulations. The Amendments to the Criminal Law of the PRC adopted in December 2001 designate as criminal offenses such acts as illegally manufacturing, trafficking and transporting radioactive substances, and stipulate corresponding punishments for such offenses.

In the biological field, China has promulgated and implemented a series of laws, rules and regulations in the past two decades and more, including the Criminal Law of the PRC in 1979, the Tentative Measures on the Stockpiling and Management of Veterinarian Bacteria Culture in 1980, the Regulations on the Management of Veterinary Medicines in 1987, the Law of the PRC on the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases in 1989, the Lawon the Quarantine of Animals and Plants Brought into or Taken Out of the Chinese Territory in 1991, the Measures for the Control of Biological Products for Animal Uses and the Procedures for the Safe Administration of Agricultural Biological Gene Engineering in1996, and the Standards for the Quality of the Biological Productsfor Animal Uses in 2001. These laws, rules and regulations have made strict provisions on the production, control, use, stockpiling, carriage and transfer of relevant bacteria (viruses),vaccines and biological products. The Amendments to the Criminal Law of the PRC adopted in December 2001 designate as criminal offenses such acts as illegally manufacturing, trafficking, transporting, stockpiling or using infectious pathogens, and stipulate corresponding punishments for such offenses.
In October 2002, the Chinese government promulgated the Regulations of the PRC on the Export Control of Dual-Use Biological Agents and Related Equipment and Technologies, and the control list. It instituted a licensing system for the export of dual-use biological agents and related equipment and technologies and a registration system for the exporters, and established the principle that the relevant exports shall not be used for biological weapon purposes, that without prior consent of the Chinese government, the dual-use biological agents and related equipment and technologies supplied by China shall not be used forpurposes other than the declared end-use, or be retransferred to athird party other than the declared end-user. Besides, the regulations also provide strict procedures for export examination and approval and punishments for violations of the regulations.
In the chemical field, the Chinese government promulgated between 1995 and 1997 the Regulations of the PRC on the Administration of the Controlled Chemicals, the Controlled Chemicals List and the Detailed Rules for the Implementation of the Regulations of the PRC on the Administration of the ControlledChemicals, designating the department in charge of the supervisionof the controlled chemicals and defining its duties, making a detailed classification of the controlled chemicals and exercisingstrict control over the production, sale, use, import and export of sensitive chemicals. Under the regulations, the import and export of the controlled chemicals must be handled by the designated departments. No other department or individual is permitted to engage in import and export of these items. In 1998, the Chinese government added 10 controlled chemicals to the Controlled Chemicals List. The Amendments to the Criminal Law of the PRC adopted in December 2001 designate as criminal offenses such acts as illegally manufacturing, trafficking, transporting, stockpiling or using toxic materials, and stipulate corresponding punishments for such offenses.
In October 2002, the Chinese government further promulgated the Measures on the Export Control of Certain Chemicals and Related Equipment and Technologies, and the control list. The measures area substantive supplement to the Regulations on the Administration of the Controlled Chemicals, not only adding 10 chemicals to the list, but also providing for the export control of the related equipment and technologies. The measures provide a licensing system for the export of the materials and technologies on the control list. They require importers to guarantee that the controlled chemicals and related equipment and technologies supplied by China shall not be used for stockpiling, processing, producing or handling chemical weapons, or for producing precursorchemicals for chemical weapons, and that, without the prior consent of the Chinese government, the related materials and technologies shall not be used for purposes other than the declared end-use or be retransferred to a third party other than the declared end-user. The measures also provide a registration system for exporters and corresponding rules for the examination and approval of such exports, as well as punishments for violations of the regulations.

In the missile field, China has always taken a prudent and responsible attitude toward the export of missiles and related technologies. The Chinese government declared in 1992 that it would act in line with the guidelines and parameters of the MTCR in its export of missiles and related technologies. In 1994, it committed itself not to export ground-to-ground missiles featuringthe primary parameters of the MTCR - i.e. inherently capable of reaching a range of at least 300 km with a payload of at least 500kg. In 2000, China further declared that it had no intention to assist any country in any way in the development of ballistic missiles that can be used to deliver nuclear weapons, and that it would formulate and publish regulations on the missile export control and the relevant control list.
In August 2002, the Chinese government promulgated the Regulations of the PRC on Export Control of Missiles and Missile-Related Items and Technologies, and the control list. The regulations and the list, in light of the actual conditions in China and the prevailing international practice, adopt a licensingsystem for the export of missiles, items and technologies directlyused for missiles, and missile-related dual-use items and technologies. The regulations provide that the receiving party of the export shall guarantee not to use missile-related items and technologies supplied by China for purposes other than the declared end-use, or retransfer them to a third party other than the declared end-user without the consent of the Chinese government. They also provide for strict procedures for the examination and approval of such exports, and the punishments for violations of the regulations.
In the arms export field, in addition to the above-mentioned special regulations, the Chinese government promulgated the Regulations of the PRC on the Administration of Arms Export in 1997, and revised them in 2002 in order to strengthen the administration of arms export and to regulate arms export. The regulations reaffirm the three principles that China has always adhered to in its arms exports: being conducive to the capability for just self-defense of the recipient country, no injury to the peace, security and stability of the region concerned and the world as a whole, and no interference in the internal affairs of the recipient country. The regulations also stipulate that arms export can only be handled by arms trading companies which have obtained the business operations right for arms export; that arms export shall be subjected to a licensing system; and that dual-useproducts whose end-use is for a military purpose shall be regardedas military products and be placed under control. In November 2002,the Chinese government issued the Military Products Export ControlList as a supplement to the Regulations on the Administration of Arms Export, exercising, for the first time, arms export control according to the list. The list contains a detailed classificationof conventional weapons and armaments, constituting a framework with the main body of four levels of weapon components, weapon categories, main systems or components of weapons, and the parts and components, technologies and services directly related to the weapon equipment, thus providing a scientific and powerful legal guarantee for strengthening the control of the arms trade and armsexport.
In addition, the Regulations on the Import and Export Control of Technologies issued by the Chinese government in 2001 also stipulate that strict control shall be exercised over the export of nuclear technologies, technologies related to dual-use nuclear products, the production technologies of controlled chemicals, andmilitary technologies. The Customs Law of the PRC and the Administrative Punishments Law of the PRC also provide a legal basis for non-proliferation export control.


V. Strictly Implementing the Laws and Regulations on Non-Proliferation Export Control

Through the past years, China has steadily improved and developed its laws and regulations on non-proliferation, providinga solid legal basis and strong guarantee for the better attainmentof the government's non-proliferation goals and, at the same time,setting a new demand for law-enforcement capability of the relevant functional departments of the government. In order to ensure the effective implementation of these laws and regulations concerning non-proliferation export control, the departments concerned of the Chinese government have devoted a great deal of effort to improving non-proliferation export control organs, publicizing the relevant policies and regulations, conducting education for enterprises, and investigating and handling cases ofviolations.
Export Control Organs: China's non-proliferation export controlinvolves many of the government's functional departments. So far, a mechanism for a clear division of responsibility and coordination has been established among these departments.
China's nuclear export comes under the control of the Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense (COSTIND), jointly with other relevant government departments. Arms export, including the export of missiles, and facilities and key equipment used directly for the production of missiles, is under the control of COSTIND and the relevant department under the Ministry of National Defense, jointly with other government departments concerned.
The export of nuclear dual-use items, dual-use biological agents, certain chemicals, and the missile-related dual-use items and technology for civilian use is under the control of the Ministry of Commerce (MC), jointly with other government departments concerned. Among them, the export of nuclear dual-use items and missile-related dual-use items and technologies is subject to examination by the MC, jointly with COSTIND. The exportof dual-use biological agents and technologies related to animals and plants is subject to examination by the MC, jointly with the Ministry of Agriculture if needed. The export of dual-use biological agents and technologies related to humans is subject toexamination by the MC, jointly with the Ministry of Health if needed. The export of equipment and technologies related to dual-use biological agents and of equipment and technologies related tocertain chemicals is subject to examination by the MC, jointly with the State Development and Reform Commission if needed. The export of controlled chemicals is subject to examination by the State Development and Reform Commission, jointly with the MC.
The export of sensitive items and related equipment and technologies that relate to foreign policy is subject to examination by the above-mentioned competent departments, jointly with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Where the export items entail significant impact on national security and public interests, the competent departments shall, jointly with other relevant departments, submit the case to the State Council and theCentral Military Commission for approval.


The General Administration of Customs of the PRC shall be responsible for the supervision and control of the import and export of the above-mentioned items and technologies.
Special organs, staffed with specialists, have been set up in the above-mentioned ministries and commissions to take charge of the export control work.
Publicity of Laws and Regulations and Education for Enterprises:Immediately after the non-proliferation export control regulationswere issued, a news release was announced through the national media, and the full text of the regulations and control lists was published in the professional publications and on the web sites ofthe government departments, foreign trade enterprises and researchinstitutes concerned. The publicity has provided favorable conditions in informing the concerned exporters of the regulationsand control lists. Competent departments concerned have also takenpositive steps to ensure earnest implementation of the regulationsby relevant enterprises and institutions, and to make export enterprises familiarized with the contents of the regulations and procedures for export examination and approval by organizing lectures and training courses on these regulations.
Building of the Export Examination System: In order to effectively implement the export control regulations, China has established a system involving application, examination and approval, certificate issuance and Customs control, inspection andclearance, and this system applies to all interested exporters. The Ministry of Commerce and other competent departments are formulating the Export Licensing Catalogue of Sensitive Items and Technologies (i.e. the commodities on the lists attached to relevant export control regulations bearing Customs HS codes), andare doing their best to ensure compliance by export enterprises atall stages of export, and enhance the government's capability to exercise supervision on export control.
To make it more convenient for export enterprises to apply for export licenses, the Ministry of Commerce plans to provide an online service for license application, examination and approval geared to the needs of the general public once the operation system is available. The Chinese government will also establish a corresponding export control information exchange network among the examining, approving and license-issuing organs and the Customs office.
Investigation and Handling of Law Violations: The Chinese government attaches great importance to the investigation and handling of cases of law violations relating to non-proliferation.After being informed of possible illegal exports, concerned competent departments will make earnest investigations and administer corresponding administrative punishments, or transfer the cases to the judicial organs for ascertaining criminal responsibility, depending on the seriousness of the law-breaking acts. In recent years, China has dealt with a number of law-breaking export cases and administered corresponding punishments to the units and individuals involved according to law.
Strengthening the ability of law enforcement and effectively implementing the non-proliferation export control regulations is acomplex system engineering project that involves many aspects and requires coordination and cooperation among different government departments. At the same time, understanding of the relevant statepolicies and regulations by domestic enterprises, their increased consciousness of the importance of non-proliferation, and the establishment of a self-discipline mechanism among them also have a direct bearing on the implementation of the non-proliferation laws and regulations. The concerned departments of the Chinese government are summing up their experience, constantly strengthening the training of the law-enforcing personnel, intensifying publicity and further improving the domestic non-proliferation export control system.

Conclusion

While sparing no effort to implement the non-proliferation policy, to strengthen and to improve the non-proliferation laws and regulations and the export control mechanism, the Chinese government is fully aware that the above efforts should proceed ina systematic way and advance step by step.
The international non-proliferation effort is inseparable from the policies and measures of the countries involved, and the building of the domestic mechanisms in various countries is inseparable from the establishment of international non-proliferation standards. China will continue to take an active part in international non-proliferation endeavors, and exert greatefforts to maintain and strengthen the existing non-proliferation international legal system within the UN framework. It will constantly increase consultations and exchanges with the multinational non-proliferation mechanisms, including the "NuclearSuppliers' Group," the MTCR, the "Australia Group" and the "Wassenaar Arrangement," and continue to take an active part in international discussions related to non-proliferation.
The Chinese government will continue to keep in touch and hold consultations with other countries on non-proliferation issues, and is willing to strengthen its exchange and cooperation with allsides in the fields related to non-proliferation export control tokeep improving their respective non-proliferation export control systems.
Confronted with the complicated and changeable international security situation, China stands for fostering of a new security concept of seeking security through cooperation, dialogue, mutual trust and development. Non-proliferation is an important link in maintaining international and regional peace and security in the new century. China will join the members of the international community who love peace and stability in making contributions to accelerating the development and improvement of the international non-proliferation mechanism and to promoting world peace, stability and development through unremitting international efforts and cooperation and by persisting in the settlement of theissue of proliferation of WMD and their means of delivery through peaceful means. Enditem


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What Did Musharraf Know?
Posted Feb. 27, 2004
By Arnaud De Borchgrave
Pakistan's nuclear hybrid - half Dr. Strangelove and half Dr. No - was arguably the world's most dangerous criminal. Abdul Qadeer Khan is the only proliferator of weapons of mass destruction the world has known since the advent of the atomic age in 1945. Worse, he sold his country's nuclear secrets for profit to America's self-avowed enemies - North Korea, Iran and Libya. His motives were also hybrid -- both greed and creed. His Islamist fundamentalist ideology led him to believe it was within his power to make invincible America vincible. As the father of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, he was his country's most precious asset - and in the Pakistani pantheon of national heroes he was only a whisker below Mohammad Ali Jinnah, the founder of the Pakistani state.
Yet President Pervez Musharraf pardoned the global criminal and allowed him to keep his ill-gotten gains, in return for which Khan went on national television and said, in English, not in Urdu, the national language, that he was truly sorry and had acted strictly alone, unbeknownst to anyone else in the Pakistani government.
If Musharraf can pardon Khan, why can't he pardon Pakistan's two most important political leaders - Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, both former prime ministers - who are living in exile, and are still the recognized heads of Pakistan's two principal political parties? Next to Khan's global nuclear Wal-Mart, the corruption charges against Bhutto and Sharif are teensy-weensy. Both these leaders can testify that while they were in power at different times, military officials and scientists approached them seeking permission to export nuclear technology. Tired of being turned down, they went ahead anyway. Clearly, Khan was not acting on his own.
The only problem with the carefully rehearsed charade is that no one believed the story. Not Musharraf's I-had-no-idea disclaimer, nor Khan's act of contrition. So why did Musharraf agree to the giveaway show? The alternative - which would have been to tell the truth - would have been tantamount to scuttling the ship of state. Because it is inconceivable that the all-powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency wasn't aware of Khan's six trips to the hermit communist kingdom of North Korea. Khan was Pakistan's most-precious national asset and ISI and ranking military officers were in charge of protecting the man who owned the country's crown jewels and who could be kidnapped or gunned down at any time. What is more than likely is that ISI knew about Khan's nuclear rackets but didn't tell Musharraf because of the Pakistani leader's close rapport with U.S. President Bush.
Musharraf claimed the first specific details of Khan's global operations came from U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and Gen. John Abizaid, head of U.S. Central Command, when they called on him last October. But Khan began spinning his worldwide web of nuclear skulduggery 18 years ago, at the height of the war against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, while the previous military dictator, Gen. Zia ul-Haq, was in power. His network of intermediaries stretched from Malaysia to Pakistan to Dubai, Istanbul, Tripoli and Casablanca and a small Swiss town, and employed nationals from Asia, the Middle East, North Africa and Europe.
It is becoming increasingly obvious that Khan's clandestine activities paralleled closely the actions of several Pakistani governments. In 1984, for example, a partnership was concluded between Iran's Atomic Energy Organization and Pakistan's Atomic Energy Commission. Also in 1984, Gnadi Mohammad Mragih, director of Iran's Nuclear Technology Center in Isfahan, visited Pakistan's supersecret Kahuta nuclear complex to meet with Khan. In 1991, no less than three Iranian delegations came to Kahuta. An Iranian general who commanded the Iranian Revolutionary Guards led one of them. Again in 1991, the Pakistani chief of Army Staff went to Iran to sign a secret protocol on uranium-enrichment technology.
Pakistan's nuclear ambitions are invariably portrayed as an answer to India's first nuclear test explosion in 1974. But the Maldon Institute reminds us their origin predates India's big bang. Pakistan's massive military defeat by Indian forces in 1971 was the energizer. This was when India rolled up East Pakistan and Bangladesh won its war of national liberation.
Following Pakistan's humiliation, Prime Minister Ali Bhutto (Benazir's father who was executed by President Zia) vowed Pakistanis would "eat grass if necessary" to develop nuclear weapons. Bhutto asked Khan, an engineer by training, to return home from the Netherlands to head the program. Which he did, armed with stolen Dutch plans for a uranium-enrichment plant.
Since then, Khan has served seven successive governments that always gave him and his nuclear efforts top priority for funds and materials. At a conference of Islamic states in 1974, Bhutto announced Pakistan would produce an "Islamic bomb," which would be the foundation for Islamic countries to acquire strategic military capacities to counter other nuclear-weapons powers.
Pakistani leaders denied time and again the country had a nuclear-weapons program - until 1998, when Sharif declared Pakistan a nuclear power, punctuated with five nuclear-bomb tests that followed five Indian bangs the week before.
It is inconceivable that Khan, for three decades, could have indulged in such extensive nuclear proliferation without the knowledge and acquiescence of ISI and the military high command. Musharraf was army chief of staff prior to seizing the presidency in October 1999.
What did Musharraf know - and when did he know it - are the kind of lese-majeste questions Pakistani journalists who wish to stay healthy don't ask.

Arnaud De Borchgrave is an editor at large for UPI, a sister news organization of Insight magazine.
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U.S. Claims Spy Led Attack on Pakistan's Leader
Posted Feb. 27, 2004
By Anwar Iqbal
The man who tried to kill Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf in December was a spy in Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence agency, a U.S. defense intelligence source told United Press International on Thursday.
Pakistan officials deny the man was a spy. They say he was an extremist freed by U.S. forces once the spy agency said he was not involved in terrorist activities.
Mohammed Jameel, 31, was one of four people who tried to ram two explosive-filled cars into Musharraf's motorcade on Dec. 25 as he was returning to his home near Islamabad. All four are believed to have died in the attempt, along with 12 other people, mostly policemen and Musharraf's bodyguards.
The attack came 11 days after a bomb blew up a bridge in the same area shortly after Musharraf's motorcade passed it. Investigators later said the bodies of three others involved in the attack were mutilated beyond recognition. Jameel, however, was recognized by his severed head, which was discovered near one of the cars the men had used. Investigators said Jameel's face was almost intact, which allowed them to identify him.
A week after the assassination attempt, Pakistan's Information Minister Shaikh Rasheed identified Jameel as a Muslim militant from Rawlakote, a small town on the Pakistani side of the disputed Kashmir region.
Rasheed said Jameel was one of hundreds of Pakistanis who went to Afghanistan to defend the Taliban regime when the United States invaded the country in October 2001. Jameel was later captured and handed over to U.S. authorities in Afghanistan who kept him at Bagram airbase near Kabul along with other prisoners.
"Since there were hundreds of such prisoners, the Americans decided to release those not directly involved with the Taliban or al-Qaeda," said a Pakistani official. "They contacted us for information about Jameel and others and since we had nothing on him, we declared him clean. It was an honest mistake."
A U.S. defense-intelligence source disagrees. He says Jameel was a captain of the Pakistan Army serving in the spy agency. He says Jameel was sent to Afghanistan along with other spies to defend the Taliban.
A Pakistan diplomat in Washington and a Pakistan intelligence official say the U.S. official is wrong.
"It took us a while to find out who he was," said Mohammed Sadiq, deputy chief of mission at the Pakistan Embassy in Washington. "Had he been an ISI officer we would have known."
It took three days to figure out who Jameel was, and he was not a spy-agency operative, the intelligence official said, declining to be named.
Meanwhile, authorities in Islamabad said they have questioned an Islamic militant over his group's possible involvement in the attempt on Musharraf's life. British-born Ahmad Saeed Omar Shaikh was convicted in the murder plot of American journalist Daniel Pearl. Last month, Omar was transferred from Karachi to a prison near Islamabad for questioning. Investigators later said they believe one of the suicide bombers in the Musharraf plot belonged to Harkat Jihad-e-Islami, a group Omar is also involved in.
Last month Musharraf told a news briefing he believed the al-Qaeda terrorist network also was involved in the assassination attempt. CIA Director George Tenet, who Tuesday described Musharraf as "an indispensable ally," said Musharraf has annoyed al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups by deciding to support the United States.

Anwar Iqbal is a South Asian affairs analyst for UPI, a sister news organization of Insight magazine.
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>> HHMM...

Iraq backs pipeline to Iran for oil export
By Nicolas Pelham in Baghdad
Published: February 29 2004 22:04 | Last Updated: February 29 2004 22:04
The US-led occupation authorities in Baghdad have backed plans for Iraq to build an oil pipeline to Iran to provide a new outlet for the country's rising oil production.
Ibrahim Bahr al-Uloum, Iraq's oil minister, told the Financial Times: "We have agreed in principle to an offer from Iran to build a 10km pipeline across the Shatt al-Arab [waterway] to the Iranian port of Abadan," said Mr Bahr al-Uloum. "We faced no objection from the US."
Coalition officials in Baghdad confirmed a memorandum of understanding had been agreed between the former foes. "It's a very good, practical thing to do," said a senior coalition official.
Relations between Washington and Tehran have been uneasy since George W. Bush, US president, two years ago declared Iran part of an "axis of evil".
The coalition official said: "We leave the whole diplomatic question in the hands of the Iraqis. Paul Bremer [the US chief administrator in Iraq] says he realises they [the Iraqis] have to have good relations with all their neighbours."
Iraq's oil minister said the project's cost would be fixed once a feasibility study had been completed. It would take three months to build the pipeline, which will span the waterway over which Iran and Iraq fought an eight-year war. "I can say with confidence the pipeline will be established by the end of the year," he said.
Officials ruled out concern that the deal might not hold after the restoration of Iraqi sovereignty, noting that Iran was the first non-coalition state to recognise Iraq's highest body, the US- appointed Governing Council. The minister said the pipeline was the latest move to overcome the bottleneck at its main Gulf port of Basra, and meet the target of exporting 2m barrels of oil a day by the end of this month.
The port now loads about 1.6m bpd. Export and revenue potential has been held back by Iraq's narrow access to the Gulf and by guerrilla attacks that have stalled the reopening of the northern pipeline to Ceyhan in Turkey, which carried 800,000 bpd of Iraqi crude oil before the war.
The pipeline, with an expected capacity of 350,000 bpd, would boost potential exports. Iraq also has begun loading at a terminal on its Gulf coast that will have a capacity of 200,000 bpd.
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>> Comments:http://www.lucianne.com/threads2.asp?artnum=118751
What's that again about the Gitmo detentions serving no useful purpose?


Report: Sept. 11 Coordinator Met Hijacker
MADRID, Spain - The suspected coordinator of the Sept. 11 attacks is being held at the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and has told investigators he met with the lead hijacker, a Spanish newspaper reported Sunday.
El Pais, the country's largest daily newspaper, said Ramzi Binalshibh, who was arrested in Pakistan in September 2002, acknowledged meeting Mohamed Atta of Egypt in July 2001 -- two months before the attacks in the United States.
The story cites an FBI (news - web sites) report given to Spain's Civil Guard as its source. The Civil Guard is the national police force.
A U.S. official in Washington, speaking on condition of anonymity, declined to comment Sunday on Binalshibh's whereabouts or other details in the El Pais report.
A spokesman for the U.S. Embassy said "this information didn't come from us."
The Civil Guard did not answer its phone Sunday. An Interior Ministry spokesman who declined to identify himself said Sunday that no one was available to comment.
Binalshibh was arrested in Pakistan in September 2002 and was known to be in U.S. custody, but his location has been kept secret. Defendants in at least two trials stemming from the Sept. 11 attacks have been denied access to Binalshibh.
U.S. federal prosecutors in the trial of alleged Sept. 11 conspirator Zacarias Moussaoui have argued that national security would be gravely harmed if details were revealed about the sensitive interrogations of Binalshibh and other suspected al-Qaida operatives.
Binalshibh is a Yemeni who lived in Hamburg, Germany, with Atta and failed four times to get a U.S. entry permit. He also wired money to Moussaoui.
The July 2001 meeting between Binalshibh and Atta in Tarragona, in northeast Spain near Barcelona, has long been suspected but not proven. Both men were known to be there at that time.
According to El Pais, information from his interrogation at Guantanamo led to last week's arrest in Murcia, southeast Spain, of Khaled Madani of Algeria.
Madani allegedly is a forger who sold Binalshibh a false passport he used to leave Spain on Sept. 7, 2001, for Athens, Greece; Dubai, United Arab Emirates; and Kabul, Afghanistan (news - web sites), where he allegedly met Osama bin Laden (news - web sites).
Last week, National Court Judge Guillermo Ruiz Polanco ordered Madani and another Algerian, Moussa Laouar, jailed on suspicion they formed part of bin Laden's al-Qaida terror network.
Laouar is wanted in France and faces extradition proceedings.
Judge Ruiz Polanco intends to request access to Binalshibh at Guantanamo as part of Spain's investigation of the al-Qaida cell, El Pais reported.
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US grills Al-Qaeda leaders' relatives
Round-up is ongoing; information extracted so far has given hints about likelylocation of Osama and his men, say officials
WASHINGTON - The United States is rounding up relatives of fugitive Al-Qaeda leaders to question them on the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden and his top deputies.
A similar tactic had generated the information that helped lead to the capture of former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.
So far, the information received is unconfirmed and does not mean the terrorist leader's location has been pinned down or his capture is imminent.
US officials have cautioned that rumours of significant progress are overstated.
On Saturday, Pentagon and Pakistani officials denied an Iranian state radio report that Osama had been captured 'a long time ago' in Pakistan's border region with Afghanistan.
But US officials are saying they have been able to extract useful information from Afghan and Pakistani relatives and friends of Al-Qaeda fugitives, and this had provided hints on the possible whereabouts of the organisation's leaders.
With the weather improving in Afghanistan, the US military has sent troops and technology to the region to help in the search and to give forces on the ground more opportunity to track down Osama.
The Al-Qaeda leader is the United States' most wanted terrorist for his role in planning the attacks of Sept 11, 2001.
Rounding up relatives for questioning helped bring about the Dec 13 capture of Saddam.
US officials hope the tactic could lead to information about Osama and his top deputies, especially when combined with information from spy satellites, communication intercepts and prisoner interrogations.
US military officials have said they are planning a spring offensive in Afghanistan in the hope of capturing Osama, former Taleban leader Mullah Omar and their associates.
Meanwhile, American commanders in Afghanistan have expressed fresh optimism about finding Osama.
In late January, US military spokesman Bryan Hilferty said the military believed it could seize Osama this year, perhaps within months.
Other US officials have tried to temper such optimism.
In a sign of an increased focus on the Afghan-Pakistani border, Pakistani rapid-reaction forces have been deployed throughout the region, a mountainous landscape that runs 3,220km from the Himalayas in Pakistan's northern territories to the desert of south-western Baluchistan.
Pakistani officials said on Friday that satellite telephone intercepts from last year indicated Al-Qaeda members were hiding near the border.
Two intelligence officials said participants discussed a man called 'Shaikh' - a code name for Osama.
'Some people who were speaking in Arabic have been heard saying Shaikh is in good health,' said one of the intelligence officials.
A US defence official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Pakistani forces had killed or captured more Al-Qaeda members than any other US ally.
'We continue to aggressively pursue the remnants of Al-Qaeda and the Taleban,' the official said. -- AP

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Pakistani Lawmakers Protest Shooting Deaths

Sunday, February 29, 2004
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Opposition politicians walked out of the Senate on Sunday to protest the shooting deaths of 13 people by security forces in a remote tribal region of Pakistan, scene of a recent military operation to capture Al Qaeda suspects.
Troops fired on a minibus that failed to stop Saturday at a roadblock in tribal South Waziristan (search). The shooting outraged residents of the semiautonomous region.
President Gen. Pervez Musharraf (search) said the government would pay $1,750 in compensation to the families of those killed and half that for the injured, an indication the government acknowledged the victims were innocent civilians.
Eleven people died at the scene, and two died of their injuries late Saturday, officials said. Two other people were injured. According to residents, some of the dead were Afghan refugees.
"Either it was an error of judgment or a planned act and there was no justification for it," Sen. Khursheed Ahmed of the hardline Islamic coalition Mutahida Majlis-e-Amal said after walking out of the Senate with a dozen other lawmakers. "They were not terrorists. They were civilian people."
Army spokesman Gen. Shaukat Sultan said shortly after the incident that troops only shot back after being fired on from within the minibus, a claim denied by residents and politicians.
Pakistan's military conducted a counterterrorism operation last week near South Waziristan's main town of Wana, the fourth in the past two years. The rugged area near the border with Afghanistan is a possible hiding place of Usama bin Laden (search), but none of the 25 arrested suspects were believed to be senior Al Qaeda figures.
On Sunday, attackers fired two rockets at a military checkpoint in a village near Wana, hitting a hillside near the post in Sholam village, said Mohammed Azam Khan, a senior official in Wana, about 15 miles east of the village. No injuries were reported.
Khan blamed "foreign" terrorists for the attack, but he offered no proof to back up the claim.
Musharraf is a close ally of Washington in its war on terrorism. The U.S. military has praised the Pakistani deployment in the tribal regions as part of a "hammer and anvil" effort to trap Al Qaeda and Taliban holdouts along the border with Afghanistan -- where more than 11,000 U.S.-led forces are also hunting for terror suspects.
But the presence of Pakistani forces is resented by many locals.
"Yesterday's incident has created bad feelings," said Khaddin, one of more than 200 tribal elders who met Sunday with government officials in Wana. Khaddin, who uses only one name, added that residents wanted peace and would still work with the army.
Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao, minister for frontier regions, told the Senate that a government committee would investigate the shootings and would prepare a report within a week. He did not say whether the report would be made public.
Meanwhile, Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayyat said in an interview broadcast Sunday that counterterrorism operations have hurt the Al Qaeda network in the tribal areas.
"Its back has started to break," Hayyat told GEO television network.
Hayyat declined to say how long it would take to net bin Laden.
"You can have an immediate success tomorrow. It may take six months. It may take one year," he said. "The places they have to hide, the sanctuaries, the safe havens they have are getting fewer slowly."

For FOXNews.com comments write to
foxnewsonline@foxnews.com; For FOX News Channel comments write to
comments@foxnews.com
? Associated Press. All rights reserved.

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Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions still unclear - Russian diplomat
MOSCOW. Feb 29 (Interfax) - It is so far unclear whether North Korea is pursuing a nuclear program or not, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov told the press on Sunday.
"Nobody knows whether North Korea has nuclear programs or not, and this issue remains unclear," said Losyukov, who returned home on Sunday from Beijing, where he led the Russian delegation at the six-nation talks between North and South Korea, the U.S., Russia, China and Japan.
Losyukov said that North Korea is categorically denying that it has launched military nuclear programs.
The Russian diplomat has called good proposal Pyongyang's proposal to freeze its nuclear programs.
"This is a positive step, but North Korea expects to see some reciprocal moves," he said.
Asked by Interfax about prospects for the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO), Losyukov said "this is a dead project."
In 1994, North Korea and the U.S. signed a document called the Agreed Framework, under which America and partially Japan and South Korea committed themselves to provide assistance to North Korea in replacing its graphite-moderated reactors and related facilities with light-water reactor power plants.
"However, it is clear today that the U.S. will not continue its participation in this project, because Washington is demanding that Pyongyang fully abandon all of its nuclear programs, including energy-related ones," Losyukov said. [RU KP KR US CN JP EUROPE ASIA EEU EMRG ELG AER DIP POL] va aw
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>> PA MELTDOWN?

Dahlan: Fatah lacks means to disarm Al-Aqsa Brigades

By Arnon Regular
"Fatah does not have the means to disarm the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, and only the Palestinian Authority can absorb them and force them to heed discipline," former security minister Mohammed Dahlan said this weekend. "Those who are surrounding Yasser Arafat are blocking internal reforms in Fatah," he added.
Dahlan was commenting after meetings of Fatah's revolutionary council which lasted four days and ended Saturday. Though subordinate to the central committee, the revolutionary council is an important Fatah institution of 126 members, most personally appointed by Arafat and never elected to their posts on the council.
Dahlan's was commenting on issues that dominated the revolutionary council's discussions - one being a demand from many Fatah leaders to dismantle all militant groups which operate under the name "Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades."
Fatah leaders also sought internal reform and elections to narrow the gaps between the "brigades" on one hand and the Palestinian Authority and veteran Fatah institutions on the other.
By the end of the revolutionary council meetings it was clear neither request would be met. Fatah's military wing, the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, would not be dismantled, nor would gaps within the movement be narrowed.
Arafat typically managed to dodge demands that have circulated in Fatah; he preserved the considerable leeway he has enjoyed in the handling of the Al-Aqsa Brigades.
Early in the meetings it became clear that Arafat had stifled discussion on a number of matters that had been at the top of the agenda. One involved the administration of Fatah funds - Fatah's financial management is to be distinguished from that of the Palestinian Authority, since the PA's money-flow is monitored relatively closely by Finance Minister Salam Fayad.
Other topics on the agenda were funding of members of Fatah's military wing, and also the appointment of new members to Fatah's powerful central committee.
At the end of its discussions, the revolutionary council issued a murky, unclear statement whose ambiguity reflects the schisms within Fatah. The final statement indicated that the organization supports a general cease-fire, along with the road map and the Saudi initiative to end the Jewish-Arab dispute.
At the same time, the Fatah statement supports attacks against Jewish targets in the territories. While this summary statement indicates that Fatah supports the renewal of security coordination with Israel, it contains no response to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's separation plan.
The statement had only a tangential reference to the separation fence controversy, saying merely, "Fatah opposes unilateral steps, such as the separation fence." There was no formal response at all to the Geneva Initiative.
By the end of the meeting it was clear Arafat had managed to preserve the ambiguity that cloaks the Al-Aqsa Brigades and also managed to protect the Fatah military wing's freedom to act as it sees fit.
"Speeches but no discussions" was how one senior Fatah figure described the revolutionary council meeting at Arafat's "muqata" compound in Ramallah. Most participants at the meeting chose not to confront Arafat openly.
Former PA prime minister Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) declined to attend the meetings.
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Saturday, 28 February 2004

Greenspan Says Yuan Revaluation Would Benefit Markets (Update1) Listen
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aH4tW9XKyiY8&refer=top_world_news

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said China's economic expansion will probably pressure the nation to allow its currency to rise in value, boosting international markets while providing little benefit to U.S. jobs.
Revaluation of the Chinese yuan is a ``fairly reasonable expectation'' and an increase in productivity in the world's most populous nation ``will drive the exchange rate upward,'' Greenspan said in response to an audience question after a speech in California.
The yuan's value has been fixed at 8.277 to the dollar since 1995. The dollar, and by extension the yuan, fell about 15 percent against the euro and 8 percent against the yen in the past year.
U.S. manufacturers have complained that a favorable exchange rate and weak lending standards by state-run banks are giving Chinese producers an unfair competitive advantage. A decision by China to loosen the peg to the dollar probably wouldn't help the U.S. labor market, Greenspan said.
``I don't think the strict issue of revaluing the currency would make any difference in'' regard to U.S. employment, he said, because producers would simply relocate to the next low- cost market. It would be ``good for the international system to get the yuan in balance.''
The U.S. has lost 2.3 million jobs in three years, and manufacturing employment has declined each month since July 2000. The weak labor market has contributed to a sag in popularity for President George W. Bush, who is seeking re-election in November.
``We are not quite sure at this stage what the extent if any of the undervaluation of the renminbi is,'' Greenspan said, a reference to another name for the yuan. ``There is no doubt there is upward pressure on the currency.''
Currency Basket
Japan's Finance Ministry yesterday said China may favor linking the yuan's value to a basket of currencies, including the U.S. dollar, the euro and the yen, rather than allowing it to fluctuate more freely against the dollar.
The Chinese government sees a basket system, or tying the yuan to several other currencies to produce a single unit of value, as a way to reduce volatility if it decides to remove the yuan's peg to the dollar, Hiroshi Watanabe, head of the ministry's international department, said.
Watanabe recently met with his counterparts from China and South Korea, but declined to say what was discussed. ``We had a meeting, but we agreed not to disclose the content,'' he said.
The Nihon Keizai newspaper reported today that Japan has called on China to value the yuan against a basket of currencies, citing Japan's Finance Ministry. No one was available at the ministry to comment on the report.
A U.S. Treasury-led group is in Beijing this week, advising China on how it can modernize its economic infrastructure as part of a transition to a floating currency.
``Our policy remains toward the yuan remains the same,'' said Bai Li, a central bank official, told Bloomberg in a telephone interview yesterday.
The Chinese economy grew 9.1 percent last year, its fastest pace in six years. Urban disposable incomes in the world's sixth- largest economy last year topped $1,000 per person for the first time.
Letting the currency appreciate may also help China slow inflation and curb growth in money supply. The government has been selling its currency and buying dollars to keep the rate at 8.3, increasing the supply of money in the economy.

To contact the reporter on this story: Craig Torres in Washington
at ctorres3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor of this story: Kevin Miller at kmiller@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: February 28, 2004 02:05 EST
-----------------------------------------

>> BAD TRIP COMING...?

Greenspan view scary, but Dems in denial
Robert Robb
Republic columnist
Feb. 29, 2004 12:00 AM
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's views about Social Security and Medicare weren't a surprise.
What was a surprise was that he made them the central point of his testimony to the House Budget Committee on Wednesday.
Fed-watchers say Greenspan and other Fed officials didn't anticipate the stir the chairman's remarks created. But Greenspan is a cautious and skilled player in this game. The bet here is that he meant to put the issue of what he described as an overcommitment to senior benefits on the public policy agenda.
What's the rush? After all, Social Security taxes are projected to pay for retirement benefits until 2018. Medicare's hospitalization fund doesn't hit a deficit until 2013. The disability fund does run into a problem quicker, in 2008, but it's relatively small potatoes.
The reason for alarm is that everyone agrees that benefits for those currently retired or nearing retirement shouldn't be changed. The nearing retirement mark, is, of course, elastic, but by consensus would include those 55 or older, and some would go as young as 50.
That means that existing benefits are, by political consensus, pretty much locked in for a decade or a decade and a half. Which in turn means that actions to alleviate deficits that emerge in 2013 or 2018 have to be put in place right now.
The reactions of the two leading Democratic candidates for president were instructive, and revealing of the deep state of denial the Democrats are in.
John Kerry said the answer was to repeal President Bush's tax cuts for the rich, which Kerry defines as anyone making more than $200,000 a year.
But there is nothing about increasing taxes today that makes a dollar available to pay Medicare and Social benefits in the future. The only effect of raising taxes today is to reduce what the federal government currently borrows.
That arguably would increase the federal government's debt capacity in the future. But that is only relevant if Kerry proposes to borrow money to pay for Medicare and Social Security benefits once payroll taxes are insufficient.
These deficits begin small, and debt financing could cover them in the short run. But they grow exponentially, as the ratio of workers to retirees continues to deteriorate.
According to Greenspan, the cost of Social Security and Medicare will expand from 7 percent of GDP today to 12 percent in 2030. That represents a 25 percent increase in federal spending.
Simply put, the combination of debt and tax increases necessary to pay programmed future retiree benefits is economically unsustainable.
John Edwards reprised his populist economic themes, saying that it was an "outrage" for Greenspan "to suggest that we should extend George Bush's tax cuts on unearned wealth while cutting benefits that working people earn."
Edwards' view that investment income is "unearned" betrays a demagogic ignorance about, or hostility toward, the role of capital formation in economic progress. But let's play out his demagogic game.
Right now, low- and middle-income "working people" are being taxed to pay retirement and health care benefits for "wealthy" seniors. What's fair about that?
The same thing that Edwards proposes to do about it: Nothing.
What needs to be done is well known. Medicare needs to be changed from a system in which the federal government pays the medical bills of seniors, to a system in which the government provides subsidies based upon income for seniors to purchase private health insurance.
Social Security needs to be changed into a system of private retirement accounts, with some sort of debt instruments being used to finance the transition.
President Bush is theoretically in favor of movement in that direction on both scores. But he flinched from fighting for Medicare reform during the prescription-drug negotiations, and he's not moved beyond conceptual support for private retirement accounts.
Bush's reticence is understandable. The specifics of Medicare and Social Security reform involve hard and politically difficult choices.
But without specific engagement, Democrats are free to continue to deny reality.
And, as Greenspan's testimony underscored, time for a smooth rather than a wrenching transition is running out.

Reach Robb at robert.robb@arizonarepublic.com or (602) 444-8472.
----------------------------------------
from the February 27, 2004 edition - http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0227/p01s01-usec.html

Baby boomers face retirement squeeze
The number of Fortune 100 companies supplying fixed-rate pensions has dropped to 50 percent.
By Gail Russell Chaddock | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
WASHINGTON - A number of factors - including a sobered stock market, deficit pressures, and corporate cutbacks - may be putting the retirement security of baby boomers at greater threat than at any time in a quarter century.
This week's provocative call by Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan to scale back future Social Security benefits to help cover a growing federal budget deficit, is just part of the concern.
Evidence is mounting that the other two pillars of retirement security - private-sector pensions and personal savings - are no longer adequate to ensure that most Americans will have enough to live on when then retire.
From United Airlines to General Motors Corp., large companies are struggling to meet their obligations to retirees. The federal plan that guarantees these pensions is $11.2 billion in the red.
And even as the stock market recovers, experts say that 401(k)s and other personal savings aren't nearly big enough.
"Tens of millions of Americans are seriously underprepared to meet their financial needs in retirement," says Benjamin Stein, of the National Retirement Planning Coalition. As many as 40 percent of Americans have saved almost nothing for retirement, he told a congressional panel Wednesday.
At the problem's root is a long-term shift that politicians are reluctant to face: With Americans living longer, the senior population is growing faster than the number of young workers to cover their needs. Benefit levels are getting harder to sustain.
It's a calculus that is as challenging for corporate pension plans as it is for Medicare and Social Security programs.
The defined retirement benefit, the pension that was once a standard perk in a big firm, is a rapidly disappearing option for many Americans. The number of Fortune 100 companies offering a fixed-benefit pension has dropped from 68 percent in 1998 to 50 percent in 2002, according to Watson Wyatt Worldwide. And federal data show a steady fall in private-sector workers who have pensions: from 38 percent in 1980 to 21 percent in 1998.
That decline, in part, reflects the trials of old-line manufacturing industries, airlines, and automakers. Some experts say it also, ironically, stems from a 1978 law intended to keep pensions from going belly up, but which added costs and regulation.
But if the decline of pensions is important, this week's talk of changes to Social Security is generating the biggest buzz. Greenspan's comments set off a flurry of election-year positioning.
Both the White House and leading Democratic candidates quickly distanced themselves from Mr. Greenspan's proposal. Democrats attacked President Bush for wanting to make his tax cuts permanent at a time of growing concern about senior entitlements such as Social Security and Medicare.
"It is defaulting on our promise to our future retirees to cut their benefits to make up for the higher deficits caused by massive tax cuts for the wealthy," says Reps. Charles Rangel (D) of New York, the ranking Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee.
Even those who criticize Greenspan's comments concede that serious adjustments will be needed both on Capitol Hill and in individual saving and spending patterns to prepare for the spike in baby boomer retirements in the next four years.
"He's right that social security does need to be reformed, but his prescription for cutting benefits for future retirees is inadvisable," says John Rother, policy director for the senior lobby AARP.
"Half of American workers do not have a pension, and most have not saved anything significant for retirement," he adds.
Given the decline of traditional pensions, this is of particular concern. Only 15 percent of working age Americans have an individual retirement account (IRA), and only 22 percent contribute to a 401(k) plan, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Barely 1 in 3 working Americans has saved more than $100,000 for retirement.
Overall, it means that American retirees will have $45 billion less in retirement income in 2030 than they will need to cover basic expenses, according to the EBRI.
For any politician up for reelection in 2004, the prospect of large numbers of angry retirees - who vote at higher levels than other age groups - is unsettling. Social Security reform is an issue rarely engaged during the political cycle.
In 2000, Republican nominee George Bush touched what analysts call the "third rail" of politics when he proposing changes in Social Security. With the stock market still seen as strong, and forecasts for a huge federal surplus, the notion of privatizing a portion Social Security appealed to many voters, especially those who viewed themselves as part of a new "investor class." With IRAs and pensions, some two thirds of voters are directly or indirectly invested in the stock market.
But with the sharp reversals in the stock market after the election and, especially, more recent fears of outsourcing and a jobless recovery, the average American's stock ownership is shrinking.
"We've seen the group of self-identifiers in the investor class drop from 52 percent a year ago to 32 percent, around October and November," says pollster John Zogby of Zogby International.
Curiously, this group stuck through the worst days of the bear market in his poll, but more recent publicity about good, white-collar jobs being shipped overseas has hit this voting group hard. Twenty-one percent say they are afraid of losing their job in the next 12 months, says Mr. Zogby.
"There are still pockets of acceptability for the idea of Social Security reform, but what Greenspan said - that your entitlement is not going to be what you planned - is deadly stuff in politics, especially as the baby boomers get older," he adds.
No one expects Congress or the White House to move on this issue in an election year, but today's discussion could set markers for debate beyond 2004.
"There are going to be a lot of people looking at a bad retirement if they get away with cutting Social Security," says Dean Baker, codirector of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

>>

from the February 27, 2004 edition - http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0227/p06s01-wome.html
Israeli bank raid breaks new turf
Israel raided three banks in the West Bank city of Ramallah this week and seized at least $6.7 million.
By Ilene R. Prusher and Ben Lynfield
JERUSALEM AND RAMALLAH - Israel sees it as an audacious and definitive blow to the financial base of terrorism. But Palestinians view the army's unprecedented raid on Ramallah banks as a targeting of their economy as a whole.
The fallout from the raids, which ended at 2 a.m. Thursday, was being gauged by the Palestinian financial sector. Bankers were hoping the army's seizure of 30 million shekels ($6.7 million) in assets would not touch off a run of withdrawals from customers fearing for the safety of their money.
"Now no institution is safe," said Omar Abdel-Razeq, senior research fellow at the Palestine Economic Policy Research Institute. Its offices near the raided Cairo Amman Bank were converted into a military post during the raids. Israeli troops also raided the Palestine International Bank and the Arab Bank, forcing employees to operate computer systems and hand over money from the vaults, employees said.
The soldiers seized assets Israel said were being used to sponsor attacks by Hamas, the Islamic Jihad, the Lebanese Hizbullah organization, and other groups. "The benefits of this will hopefully be understood over the long term. This is a blow to them because the terrorists who use these banks accounts will be more careful. You create obstacles for these terrorists," said army spokesman Capt. Jacob Dallal. "It took a lot of intelligence to identify the accounts of people who are terrorists" or who support terrorism, he said.
But the US State Department criticized the raids, saying Israeli actions "risk destabilizing the Palestinian banking system."
"We would prefer to see Israeli coordination with the Palestinian financial authorities to stem the flow of funds to terrorist groups," department spokesman Richard Boucher said. Israel says the seized money is to be spent on charity for the well-being of the Palestinian population.
Palestinian Authority leaders dispute that the funds seized were used for terrorism. "Israel will use any excuse to destroy the Palestinian economy," says Local Government Minister Jamal Shobaki. "The economy is the pillar of stability and this harms the very stability of Palestinian society." He termed the raids "armed robbery."
Mr. Abdel-Razeq predicts that the effects of the seizures "could be drastic. It all comes down to public confidence now. The stability of the banking system is very important to Palestinian investors both outside the country and locally. This will certainly add to the difficulties of the investment environment," he said.
Eighteen Palestinians were injured by gunfire in clashes that erupted as troops entered Ramallah Wednesday morning. But the operation actually began before dawn, when the Arab Bank's director of information technology, Ahmed Abu Ghosh, was arrested at his home, according to Ahmed-Samah Abu Rajai Aweidah, a vice president. Soldiers later forced him to come to the bank and give them access to the computer system, Aweidah said.
Twenty-five soldiers with guns took over the Arab Bank's al-Bireh branch, an employee recalled. Its regional headquarters was also taken over by troops. At 10:20 a.m., Mr. Aweidah said, "I was sitting with a customer. I saw an Israeli soldier pointing an M-16 in my face and asking me to put my hands up. We and the customers were held up at gunpoint. Some of the soldiers spoke fluent Arabic, and they ordered us to go into the corridor. Once they made sure all of the offices were empty, they split us into two groups, males on one side and females on the other."
"At 12:30, they let the women go out. They checked the IDs of all the men and let all the male employees leave by 2:30. As senior management, we agreed with the soldiers that we would stay. By threat of force their hackers went through the system. They forced us to print out the balances for the accounts. They forced us to open the safe. They had dynamite ready to blow it open if we didn't. Our teller went in and counted the money and gave it to the soldiers. The soldiers gave us a receipt and took the money out of the bank."
Captain Dallal responded: "Obviously we needed the assistance of some bank employees to locate the whereabouts of the accounts. That's true. There was no abuse of the people."
Zeev Schiff, military-affairs analyst for Ha'aretz newspaper, said: "Maybe people will be hurt by this and we have to compensate them. But we have to be tougher on the families of suicide bombers and take money from them as well."


Posted by maximpost at 6:30 PM EST
Updated: Saturday, 28 February 2004 10:37 PM EST
Permalink

>> SYRIANS PULL IT OFF?
Bush rejects Pentagon plan for incursions into Syrian territory
http://www.geostrategy-direct.com/geostrategy-direct/
The White House has rejected a U.S. military proposal for increased freedom of action along the Iraqi-Syrian border to halt the flow of Muslim fighters into Iraq. U.S. officials said the White House rejected a plan suggested by the Joint Chiefs of Staff to permit U.S. forces operating along the Iraqi-Syrian border to pursue Al Qaida-aligned fighters into Syria and attack insurgency way stations inside Syrian territory.

__ Full Text, Subscribers

Middle East Report:
Clueless in Baghdad: CIA doing poorly in Iraq
__ Full Text, Subscribers

Focus on Iran's Nuclear Capability:
Secret facilities in Natanz can produce a nuclear warhead in days
__ Full Text, Subscribers

Iranian gas centrifuge uranium enrichment plant at Natanz
Zoom for closeups 1 and 2. In closeup 2, the group of five white buildings comprise the pilot plant. The large rectangular construction sites (center) are where underground buildings will house thousands of centrifuges. Satellite photo courtesy of Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS)

Projection of U.S. Power:
U.S. intelligence calls long-term American presence
critical to ending 'dead-end' Mideast conflict
__ Full Text, Subscribers

Northeast Asia Report
China hits Taiwan plan to buy advanced Patriot anti-missile system from U.S.
__ EAST-ASIA-INTEL.COM

Military Technology:
U.S. to conduct balloon surveillance on critical Iraq facilities

----------------------------------
>> OUR FRIENDS THE SAUDIS...
Jews barred, said Saudi Web site

(CNN) --The Saudi government has launched an investigation into why its tourism Web site posted a notice that travel visas to Saudi Arabia would not be issued to people of the Jewish faith, according to the spokesman for the Saudi embassy in Washington.

Adel Al-Jubeir, the embassy spokesman, said the information was posted by mistake and that tourist visas are not denied to people based on their religion.

But Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., called on President Bush to deny travel visas to Saudis until their policy toward Jewish travelers is clarified.

"The Saudis have a lamentable history with regards to Israel and people of the Jewish faith," Weiner said in a statement. "President Bush should demand a full accounting regarding the Saudis' visa policy towards Jews."

The information posted on the Web site said visas would be denied to "Jewish people." The language was removed Friday morning, after Weiner complained. It now tells visitors to check with Saudi consulates in order to obtain visa information.

The Saudi ambassador to the United States, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, said he was "surprised" Weiner would continue to raise the issue after being informed by the embassy that it was not the policy of the Saudi government to deny tourist visas to Jews.

"At this time, we should be working toward greater understanding and better relations between the United States and the Middle East," Prince Bandar said in a statement. "Rep. Weiner and his actions only serve to spread doubt and mistrust."

Weiner, who is Jewish, is a frequent critic of Saudi Arabia in Congress. He is the House sponsor of the Saudi Arabia Accountability Act, which would impose sanctions on the country unless it provides additional cooperation in the war on terrorism.

Find this article at:
http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/02/28/visa.flap/index.html

---------------------------------------
Uranium Traveled to Iran Via Russia, Inspectors Find
By WILLIAM J. BROAD
Inspectors have found evidence that some of the highly enriched uranium found on nuclear machinery in Iran came from Russia, European diplomats and American experts said Friday. The nuclear fuel appears to have come through the global black market, the experts added, and not with the blessings of Moscow.
With the findings, Russia emerges as a new and unexpected foreign source of supply to Iran's nuclear efforts. Recent revelations had shown that the Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan had provided Iran with some sophisticated centrifuge technology that could be used to refine weapons-grade uranium through his hidden nuclear trading network, according to international nuclear officials and Dr. Khan's own testimony.
The Bush administration has long accused Iran of harboring a secret bomb project, which Tehran denies, saying its nuclear program is only for peacetime purposes.
In that light, last year's discovery in Iran of highly enriched uranium --a potential bomb fuel -- set off an international crisis about the country's nuclear intentions and raised questions about where it had originated. Iran claimed it was contamination that came in on imported equipment, which Iranian officials said they acquired to concentrate uranium for reactors to generate electricity. The centrifuges spin rapidly to enrich uranium for both nuclear reactors and nuclear arms. High concentrations of uranium's rare 235 isotope can fuel warheads.
In a report on Tuesday, the International Atomic Energy Agency said that its inspections had found that centrifuge equipment made indigenously in Iran -- but not imported gear -- showed many traces of the concentrated fuel, leading experts to doubt the Iranian explanation and suggest that Iran had enriched the uranium itself. Its purity was 36 percent U-235 -- short of the 90 percent needed for most nuclear bomb designs but greater than that needed for most nuclear reactors.
On Friday, however, European diplomats said the agency's laboratory at Seibersdorf, Austria, had discovered a likely match between the atomic signatures of Russian uranium and samples agency inspectors had gathered from Iranian centrifuges.
In its sleuthing, the lab studies such things as a sample's isotopes -- atoms of the same element that have different numbers of neutrons. A distinctive mix of such isotopes can amount to a fingerprint that experts check against atomic databanks.
The agency, a diplomat cautioned, was being extremely careful in its interpretation of the Seibersdorf data and other evidence and was still actively looking at alternative explanations.
Michael A. Levi, a science fellow at The Brookings Institution in Washington who has studied the recent I.A.E.A. report, said yesterday that he had independently deduced that the Iranian uranium originated in Russia. The strong clue, he said, was its 36 percent enrichment, a level that matches a kind of fuel used in certain Russian submarines and research reactors. Globally, he added, he knew of no other nuclear technology that used 36 percent enrichment.
"There's no reason for Iran to enrich to 36 percent," he said. `The only place that does that is Russia."
He added that it was highly unlikely that the Russian government sold Iran the uranium because its scientists could have easily concealed the telltale signature.
Rather, he argued, thieves probably stole the material either from Russia proper or elsewhere in the former Soviet Union and sold it on the black market.
Nations that use Russian reactors fueled with 36 percent enriched uranium, Mr. Levi said, include not only Russia but also the Czech Republic, Germany (in the former East sector), Hungary, Kazakhstan, North Korea, Poland, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and Vietnam. None of the similarly enriched Russian submarine fuel is exported through legal channels.
Poor security over such materials has been the rule rather than the exception since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Mr. Levi said. For instance, in 1993, two Russian naval servicemen stole nearly four pounds of 36 percent enriched uranium from a naval base at Andreyeva Guba, Russia. They were caught and the material recovered.
Mr. Levi said Iran might have wanted a supply of 36 percent uranium because it could ease the production of bomb-grade uranium, making the process much faster and easier.
He estimated, for instance, that enriching one bomb's worth of material would take one year of running 66 pounds of 36 percent enriched uranium through just 25 centrifuges. A set of such centrifuges, known as a cascade, incrementally concentrates the U-235 isotope.
In contrast, if Iran started with natural, unenriched uranium, Mr. Levi said, the same production run would require 13,200 pounds of raw material running through 750 centrifuges. Such a cascade, he noted, "would be far harder to hide than the 15 centrifuge arrangement."

Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company
--------------------------------------------


Posted by maximpost at 5:41 PM EST
Updated: Saturday, 28 February 2004 5:59 PM EST
Permalink

>> RICO WATCH...


Hussein's Regime Skimmed Billions From Aid Program
By SUSAN SACHS
BAGHDAD, Iraq -- In its final years in power, Saddam Hussein's government systematically extracted billions of dollars in kickbacks from companies doing business with Iraq, funneling most of the illicit funds through a network of foreign bank accounts in violation of United Nations sanctions.
Millions of Iraqis were struggling to survive on rations of food and medicine. Yet the government's hidden slush funds were being fed by suppliers and oil traders from around the world who sometimes lugged suitcases full of cash to ministry offices, said Iraqi officials who supervised the skimming operation.
The officials' accounts were enhanced by a trove of internal Iraqi government documents and financial records provided to The New York Times by members of the Iraqi Governing Council. Among the papers was secret correspondence from Mr. Hussein's top lieutenants setting up a formal mechanism to siphon cash from Iraq's business deals, an arrangement that went unnoticed by United Nations monitors.
Under a United Nations program begun in 1997, Iraq was permitted to sell its oil only to buy food and other humanitarian goods. The kickback order went out from Mr. Hussein's inner circle three years later, when limits on the amount of oil sales were lifted and Iraq's oil revenues reached $10 billion a year.
In an Aug. 3, 2000, letter marked "urgent and confidential," the Iraqi vice president, Taha Yassin Ramadan, informed government ministers that a high-command committee wanted "extra revenues" from the oil-for-food program. To that end, he wrote, all suppliers must be told to inflate their contracts "by the biggest percentage possible" and secretly transfer those amounts to Iraq's bank accounts in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
"Please acknowledge and certify that this is executed in an accurate and clear way, and under supervision of the specified minister," Mr. Ramadan wrote.
Iraq's sanctions-busting has long been an open secret. Two years ago, the General Accounting Office estimated that oil smuggling had generated nearly $900 million a year for Iraq. Oil companies had complained that Iraq was squeezing them for illegal surcharges, and Mr. Hussein's lavish spending on palaces and monuments provided more evidence of his access to unrestricted cash.
But the dimensions of the corruption have only lately become clear, from the newly available documents and from revelations by government officials who say they were too fearful to speak out before. They show the magnitude and organization of the payoff system, the complicity of the companies involved and the way Mr. Hussein bestowed contracts and gifts on those who praised him.
Yet his policy of awarding contracts to gain political support often meant that Iraq received shoddy, even useless, goods in return.
Perhaps the best measure of the corruption comes from a review of the $8.7 billion in outstanding oil for food contracts by the provisional Iraqi government with United Nations help. It found that 70 percent of the suppliers had inflated their prices and agreed to pay a 10 percent kickback, in cash or by transfer to accounts in Jordanian, Lebanese and Syrian banks.
At that rate, Iraq would have collected as much as $2.3 billion out of the $32.6 billion worth of contracts it signed since mid-2000, when the kickback system began. And some companies were willing to pay even more than the standard 10 percent, according to Trade and Oil Ministry employees.
Iraq's suppliers included Russian factories, Arab trade brokers, European manufacturers and state-owned companies from China and the Middle East. Iraq generally refused to buy directly from American companies, which in any case needed special licenses to trade legally with Iraq.
In one instance, the Coalition Provisional Authority, the American-led administrators in Iraq, found that Syria was prepared to kick back nearly 15 percent on its $57.5 million contract to sell wheat to Iraq. Syria has agreed to increase the amount of wheat to compensate for the inflated price, said an occupation official involved in the talks.
Iraq also created a variety of other, less lucrative, methods of extorting money from its oil customers. It raised more than $228 million from illegal surcharges it imposed on companies that shipped Iraqi crude oil by sea after September 2000, according to an accounting prepared by the Iraqi Oil Ministry late last year. An additional $540 million was collected in under-the-table surcharges on oil shipped across Iraq's land borders, the documents show.
"A lot of it came in cash," recalled Shamkhi H. Faraj, who managed the Oil Ministry's finance department under the old government and is now general manager of the ministry's oil-marketing arm. "I used to see people carrying it in briefcases and bringing it to the ministry."
United Nations overseers say they were unaware of the systematic skimming of oil-for-food revenues. They were focused on running aid programs and assuring food deliveries, they add.
The director of the Office of Iraq Programs, Benon V. Sevan, declined to be interviewed about the oil-for-food program. In written responses to questions sent by e-mail, his office said he learned of the 10 percent kickback scheme from the occupation authority only after the end of major combat operations.
In the few instances when Mr. Sevan's office suspected an irregularity, the statement said, it notified the sanctions committee, "which then requested member states concerned to investigate."
As the details of the corruption have recently emerged, law enforcement authorities in several countries said they had opened criminal and civil investigations into whether companies violated laws against transferring money to Iraq. Treasury Department investigators have also been helping the Iraqi authorities recover an estimated $2 billion believed to be left in foreign accounts. So far, more than $750 million has been found in foreign accounts and transferred back to Iraq, said Juan C. Zarate, a deputy assistant Treasury secretary.
To some officials of Iraq's provisional government, what is perhaps most insulting is how little their country got for its oil money. Taking stock of what was bought before the American-led invasion toppled Mr. Hussein last spring, they have found piles of nonessential drugs, mismatched equipment and defective hospital machines.
"You had cartels that were willing to pay kickbacks but would also bid up the price of goods," said Ali Allawi, a former World Bank official who is now interim Iraqi trade minister. "You had rings involved in supplying shoddy goods. You had a system of payoffs to the bourgeoisie and royalty of nearby countries.
"Everybody was feeding off the carcass of what was Iraq."
Trade Embargo Imposed
The United Nations Security Council first imposed a trade embargo on Iraq on Aug. 9, 1990, one week after Mr. Hussein's invasion of Kuwait. It was kept in place after the Persian Gulf war in 1991, with the provision that sanctions would be lifted once Iraq destroyed its unconventional weapons and ended its weapons program.
But as living conditions deteriorated, the council made several offers to let Iraq export limited quantities of oil to buy food and medicine. The two sides agreed on a mechanism only in 1996.
Late in 1999, after further tinkering, Iraq was permitted to sell as much oil as it wanted, with the proceeds going into an escrow account at Banque Nationale de Paris, supervised by the United Nations. The new rules also allowed Iraq to sign its own contracts for billions of dollars in imported goods.
As ministry officials and government documents portrayed it, the oil-for-food program quickly evolved into an open bazaar of payoffs, favoritism and kickbacks.
The kickback scheme worked, they said, because the payoffs could be included in otherwise legitimate supply contracts negotiated directly by the former government and then transferred to Iraq once the United Nations released funds to pay the suppliers.
"We'd accept the low bid and say to the supplier, `Give us another 10 percent,' " said Faleh Khawaji, an Oil Ministry official who used to supervise the contracting for spare parts and maintenance equipment. "So that was added to the contract. If the bid was for $1 million, for example, we would tell the supplier to make it $1.1 million."
The contract would then be sent to the United Nations sanctions committee, which was supposed to review contracts with an eye only to preventing Iraq from acquiring items that might have military uses.
Mr. Khawaji said he always assumed that United Nations officials simply chalked up the higher costs after 2000 to inflation. "If it was possible, Saddam would have made it 50 percent," he added. "But 10 percent could be hidden."
Some companies balked, he said, but most accepted the suggestion that they find a willing trading company to act as their intermediary. The trading companies, most of them Russian or Arab and some no more than shells, would then sell the product to Iraq and make the required kickback, Mr. Khawaji said.
"The Western company would say, `I can't do it, I've got a board, how do I get around the auditors?' " he said. "And someone would tell them there are companies in Jordan willing to do this for you. You sign with this trader and authorize them to sign a contract on your behalf."
The kickbacks were paid into Iraq's accounts, and designated ministry employees withdrew the cash and brought it to Baghdad on a regular basis, according to Mr. Khawaji and Iraqi financial records.
American and European investigators said they were trying to determine whether the banks knew they were being used for illegal financial dealings with Iraq.
Mr. Zarate, the Treasury official, said it was possible that banks did not see the whole picture because Mr. Hussein's government sometimes used agents and front companies to help move money. "But the reality was that banks were used," he said.
The chairman of Jordan National Bank in Amman, for one, said his bank was unaware that Iraq was collecting kickbacks, although Iraqi records show that tens of millions of dollars flowed into accounts at the bank in the name of government agencies and high-ranking Iraqi officials.
"If there is something like this, this 10 percent, to be honest, it wouldn't appear in the bank transactions," said the bank's chairman, Rajai Muasher. "It would be between the Iraqi government and the supplier."
The old government, however, required companies to provide separate bank letters of credit for the kickbacks, "to guarantee that they will pay them later to Iraq," as the country's irrigation minister noted in a Sept. 9, 2000, letter to Mr. Ramadan.
Businessmen who paid the kickbacks said they had no choice but to follow instructions.
"If you wanted to do business in Iraq, these were the conditions you had to abide by, not only my company but thousands of companies from all over the world that dealt in the oil-for-food program," said Emad Geldah, a member of the Egyptian Parliament who had three trading companies that sold commodities to Iraq.
"Once they told us it is for transportation inside Iraq because everything is very expensive," he said. "Or they would tell us it is for the maintenance of the trucks or they would call it after-sales service. We didn't know what they did with it."
Margin for Corruption
Under normal circumstances, Iraq would have been expected to seek the highest price for its oil, its only legal source of cash. Instead, said officials who worked with the oil-for-food program, Mr. Hussein's government fought to keep the price as low as possible to leave a margin for oil traders to pay illegal surcharges.
"We were instructed by the government to get the lowest price," said Ali Mubdir, director of crude oil sales in the State Oil Marketing Organization, or SOMO.
Under the oil-for-food program rules, the United Nations' oil overseers had to certify that Iraq was selling its crude oil at fair value. Until the overseers changed the pricing formula in late 2001, Iraq's oil sold at a discount compared with similar oil from other producers.
The margin allowed Iraq to impose an illegal surcharge on each barrel of oil it sold, with purchasers required to pay in cash or by transferring money into foreign bank accounts, Oil Ministry officials said.
At the same time, the Oil Ministry officials said, purchasers of Iraqi oil were required to pay a surcharge, either in cash or by transferring money into Iraqi accounts in foreign banks.
"It started in September 2000 and stopped in October 2002," said Mr. Faraj, the SOMO general manager. "It was 10 cents a barrel for three months. Then some people suggested 50 cents, then it was 30, then 25, then 15 cents."
According to SOMO balance sheets, one in four oil purchasers, mostly Russian companies, paid cash. The ministry's records showed that the Iraqi Embassy in Moscow, as well as embassies in Turkey, Switzerland and Vietnam, received $61 million in cash from the companies that bought oil.
Among the companies listed by SOMO as having paid the surcharges are some of the world's biggest oil trading companies and refineries. Although the balance sheet lists payments down to the penny, companies contacted about the surcharges denied they were the ones that paid.
Iraqi records, for example, show that Glencore, a Swiss-based trading company that was one of the most active purchasers of Iraqi crude, paid $3,222,780.70 in surcharges. But the company said in a written statement that "it has at no time made any inappropriate payments to the Iraqi government" and "had no dealings with the Iraqi government outside the U.N. approved oil-for-food program."
Determining who paid the surcharge in each oil transaction will take time, according to American and Iraqi investigators.
Iraqi oil shipments passed through more than one set of hands before reaching the major Western oil companies and refineries that were the ultimate customers. Those that directly bought the oil and resold it were a scattered collection of politically connected businessmen rewarded with contracts by the government, small oil dealers and companies with no experience in the business, among them a Thai rice company and a Belarussian drug company.
When oil companies complained to the United Nations about the per-barrel surcharges, Iraq levied higher charges on ships loading at its port.
"Before the war, when a lot of companies refused to pay them under the table, they started pushing up the port charges because that was also money that came to them directly," said Ahmed Ashfaq, managing director of B.C. International, an Indian oil trading company that bought Iraqi oil during the oil-for-food program.
The port charges, up to $60,000 for large tankers, were collected by two Jordan-based shipping companies and transferred to Iraqi bank accounts in Jordan, according to SOMO officials.
The companies, Al Huda International Trading Company and Alia for Transportation and General Trade Company, are owned by the Khawam family, leaders of one of Iraq's biggest tribes.
"We had a contract with Iraq to provide services at the port," said Hatem al-Khawam, chairman of the board of the family business in Amman. Collecting and passing on the charges, he added, was simply business. "It wasn't my job to say if it was right or wrong."
Vouchers for Favors
In the high-flying days after Iraq was allowed to sell its oil after 10 years of United Nations sanctions, the lobby of the Rashid Hotel in Baghdad was the place to be to get a piece of the action.
That was where the oil traders would gather whenever a journalist, actor or political figure would arrive in Iraq and openly praise Mr. Hussein. Experience taught them that the visitor usually returned to the hotel with a gift voucher, courtesy of the Iraqi president or one of his aides, representing the right to buy one million barrels or more of Iraqi crude.
The vouchers had considerable value. With the major oil companies monopolizing most Persian Gulf oil, there was fierce competition among smaller traders for the chance to buy Iraqi oil. And as long as Iraq kept its oil prices low enough, traders could make a tidy profit, even after buying the voucher and paying the surcharge.
"We used to joke that if you get one million barrels, you could make $200,000," Mr. Faraj, of SOMO, added, referring to a period when the vouchers sold for about 20 cents per barrel. "And yet the ones who got it were those people who used to come here and praise Saddam for his stand against imperialism."
Tarek Abdullah, an Iraqi-born trader living in Jordan, formed a company, DAT Oil, in Cyprus to take advantage of the Iraqi government's low oil prices.
"We all bought from those people who got the allocations," he said. "Sometimes they'd register the quantity under my name but often the Iraqis wouldn't give us an allocation directly."
Late last year, SOMO prepared a list showing 267 companies and individuals that it said received allocations during the oil-for-food program. "The list is factual," Mr. Faraj said. "There's nothing made up regarding the person and the quantities."
Laith Shbeilat and Toujan Faisal, two Jordanian politicians who supported the former Iraqi government, said they received oil allocations but gave them to friends who wanted to get into the business.
So did Bernard Guillet, a French diplomat and an adviser to the former French interior minister, Charles Pasqua. He said he asked Tariq Aziz, one of Mr. Hussein's top aides, for gift vouchers and then gave them to people from Mr. Pasqua's European parliamentary district who were looking to deal in Iraqi oil.
"Some people were trying to do some business," Mr. Guillet said. "My role was only to say to Tariq Aziz or others, `Look, there are some companies that are willing to work and they're having difficulties.' That's it."
Last month, a Baghdad newspaper published the list of companies that got allocations, prompting a chorus of denials. The Russian Foreign Ministry, for example, blames politics for releasing the list, which contained 46 Russian companies and individuals, including the former Russian ambassador to Iraq, Vladimir Titorenko, and Nikolai Ryzhkov, a Parliament member.
In a statement, the ministry denied any wrongdoing by Russians. "It is hard not to notice," the statement also said, that publication of the list "coincided with the strengthening of efforts to return Russian companies to the Iraqi market in order to cooperate in the reconstruction of war-destroyed Iraq."
Others on the list said the Iraqis tried to ply them with vouchers, but they refused.
The Rev. Jean-Marie Benjamin, a Catholic priest who campaigned for years to lift the sanctions on Iraq, said his Iraqi contacts once told him they could offer him "help" in the form of valuable oil vouchers.
He said he refused outright. In a telephone interview from his office in Assisi, Italy, Father Benjamin also said he went so far as to write to Mr. Aziz in early 2002 to repeat his refusal, and underlined it again when he met Mr. Aziz that year in Baghdad.
As he recalled the conversation, Father Benjamin said, "Aziz told me, `But we won't give you anything. Only the traders will take something.' And I said, `I don't know how it works, but I can't, morally.' "
Contracts Canceled
When Dr. Khidr Abbas became Iraq's interim minister of health six months ago, he discovered some of the effects of Mr. Hussein's political manipulation of the oil-for-food program.
After a review of the ministry's spending, he said, he canceled $250 million worth of contracts with companies he believes were fronts for the former government or got contracts only because they were from countries friendly to Mr. Hussein.
They were paid millions of dollars, said Dr. Abbas, for drugs they did not deliver, medical equipment that did not work and maintenance agreements that were never honored. Iraq, he added, was left with defective ultrasound machines from Algeria, overpriced dental chairs from China and a warehouse filled with hundreds of wheelchairs that the old government did not bother to distribute.
"There is an octopus of companies run by Arabs connected with the old regime or personalities like Uday," he said, referring to one of Mr. Hussein's sons who was killed by American troops last July. "Some paid up to 30 percent kickbacks."
Other Iraqi officials said the ministries were forced to order goods from companies and countries according to political expediency instead of quality.
"There would be an order that out of $2 billion for the Trade Ministry and Health Ministry, $1 million would have be given to Russian companies and $500 million to Egyptians," said Nidhal R. Mardood, a 30-year veteran employee of the Iraqi Ministry of Trade, where he is now the director-general for finance.
"It depended on what was going on in New York at the U.N. and which country was on the Security Council," he added. "They apportioned the amounts according to politics."
The result, for Iraqis, was a mishmash of equipment: fire trucks from Russia, earth-moving machines from Jordan, station wagons from India, trucks from Belarus and garbage trucks from China.
"We got the best of the worst," Mr. Mardood said.
Yasmine Gailani, a medical technician who worked at a lab specializing in blood disorders, said the political manipulation resulted in deliveries of drugs that varied in quality and dosage every six months.
At one point, she said, the lab was instructed to only buy its equipment from Russian companies. "So we would have to find what we called a Russian `cover' in order to buy from the manufacturer we wanted."
Her husband, Kemal Gailani, is now minister of finance in the interim Iraqi government. Last fall, he said, he confronted a United Nations official over the quality of goods that Iraqis received in their monthly rations during the sanctions.
"We were looking at the contracts already approved and the U.N. lady said, `Do you mind if we continue with these?' " he recalled. "She was talking as if it was a gift or a favor, with our money of course. I said, `Is it the same contracts to Egypt and China? It is the same cooking oil we used to use in our drive shafts, the same matches that burned our houses down, the same soap that didn't clean?' She was shocked."
Dr. Abbas, a surgeon who left his practice in London to return home to Iraq, said he was preparing lawsuits against some of the drug and medical supply companies he said were allowed to cheat Iraqis. He would also like to stop dealing with any company that paid kickbacks, but he said he realized that might not be practical.
But he would like to give them a message.
"I would say to them, it was very cruel to aid a dictator and his regime when all of you knew what the money was and where it was going," he said. "Instead of letting his resources dry up, you let the dictatorship last longer."

Abeer Allam in Cairo, Erin Arvedlund in Moscow and Jason Horowitz in Rome contributed reporting for this article.



Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company



>> LOL OF THE DAY?
China to issue Human Rights Record of US
www.chinaview.cn 2004-02-27 17:54:51
BEIJING, Feb. 27 (Xinhuanet) -- The Information Office of the State Council of China will issue on March 1 the Human Rights Record of the United States in 2003, in response to the latter's Country Reports on Human Rights Practices which contains "many distortions and denouncements".
It will be the fifth Chinese report in response to the annual country reports on human rights by the United States in five consecutive years.
An official with the Information Office said that the United States, as in previous years, acted again as "the world human rights police" by distorting the human right situations in more than 190 countries and regions across the world, including China.
However, the reports released by the US State Department on Wednesday once again "omitted" its own long-standing malpractice and problems of human rights. "Therefore, we have to, as before, help the United States keep its own human rights record," said the official.
The Human Rights Record of the United States in 2003, based on a great many facts, is divided into six parts, covering life, freedom and personal safety of the US citizens, their political rights and freedom, the living conditions of workers, racial discrimination, conditions for women, children and elderly people,as well as its infringements on the human rights of other nations. Enditem

China slams US human rights report
BEIJING, Feb. 26 (Xinhuanet) -- China on Thursday expressed strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to the United States for its report condemning China's human rights record.
The so-called country report of human rights record in 2003 issued by the US State Department defied basic truth and made indiscriminate criticisms on China's human rights record, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue said at a regular press briefing.
Zhang said the Chinese government has always been devoted to the protection and promotion of human rights and fundamental freedom and China's significant achievements in this regard has been recognized by the whole world.
She said China hopes the United States will give up its double standards on this issue and stop interfering in the internal affairs of other countries on the excuse of human rights. Enditem

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>> AHEM...

Report: bin Laden captured; Pakistan & US deny
www.chinaview.cn 2004-02-28 21:23:55
TEHRAN, Feb. 28 (Xinhuanet) -- Osama bin Laden has been captured in a tribal region in Pakistan, the IRNA news agency quoted Iran's state radio as saying on Saturday.
The radio's external service, broadcast in Pushtu, said US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's trip to Pakistan on Thursday had been made in connection with the capture.
"The capture of the al-Qaida leader has been made sometime before, but (US President George W.) Bush is intending to announce it when the American presidential election is held," the radiosaid.
Contacted by IRNA, an Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting(IRIB) announcer at the Pushtu service confirmed the news, saying that they had got it from a "very reliable source" in Peshawar, Pakistan.
The Saudi-born dissident has been accused of masterminding the Sept. 11 terror attacks on American landmarks in New York and Washington in 2001, which killed thousands of people.
The United States has offered 25 million dollars' bounty on his head.
The capture has not been confirmed by US and Pakistani officials. Enditem

Pakistani FM denies report of bin Laden's capture
ISLAMABAD, Feb. 28 (Xinhuanet) -- Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri Saturday denied a report that Osama bin Laden has been captured in Pakistan's tribal region.
Iran's state radio Pashto service reported that al-Qaeda leaderOsama bin Laden has been captured in a tribal region in Pakistan.
"I am not in position to confirm or contradict that Osama bin Laden is captured," Kasuri told reporters in Islamabad.
"I will not confirm the report that Osama is being captured by the Pakistan Army during the operation in South Waziristan," he said when asked about the confirmation of the report.
Radio Tehran said that US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's trip to Pakistan on Thursday had been made in connection with bin Laden's capture.
Pakistani officials said that Rumsfeld had not visited Pakistan.
al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden has been accused of masterminding the Sept. 11 attacks on American landmarks in New York and Washington in 2001. Enditem

US denies arrest of Osama Bin Laden
WASHINGTON, Feb. 28 (Xinhuanet) -- the United States Saturday denied news reports that Osama Bin Laden had been captured "for a long time," local media quoted a US official as saying.
Iran's state radio reported Saturday that Osama bin Laden had been captured in a tribal region in Pakistan.
Britain's Sunday Express weekly reported that bin Laden is being surrounded by US. and British special forces in the rugged Pakistani mountains along the Afghan border.
The newspaper said the world most wanted man was within a 16 km by 16 km area, being monitored by a US spy satellite.
"As far as the reports of Osama bin Laden's location, I don't take much credence in them because if we knew where he was in Afghanistan, we would go get him and if the Pakistanis knew where he was in Pakistan they would go get him," US military spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Bryan Hilferty said.
"We continue to have rumors over the past two years," he told a news briefing in Kabul, when asked about speculation that bin Laden had been spotted.
Meanwhile, Pakistani officials also denied rumors that bin Laden had been captured in mountains north of the Pakistani city of Quetta.
"That area is in Pakistan but there is nothing there, life is absolutely normal -- you can go and see," said Pakistani military spokesman Major-General Shaukat Sultan. "There is no operation being conducted there and there are no foreign troops there." Enditem


Posted by maximpost at 4:27 PM EST
Permalink

AN AXIS RESURGENT
By AMIR TAHERI
February 28, 2004 -- IN a reversal of its policy not to enter into military alliance with any foreign power, the Islamic Republic of Iran has just concluded a defense pact with Syria. Signed in Damascus yesterday, the pact commits Iran to Syria's defense against "the Zionist entity," which in the Iranian lexicon means Israel.
The idea of a pact was first raised by Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in the immediate aftermath of the liberation of Iraq last April. The Syrian leader paid three visits to Tehran, pressing the Iranian leadership to come to the help of his beleaguered regime.
Sources in Tehran say the Iranians were at first reluctant to commit to a course that could make war with Israel almost inevitable. All changed sometime last November when Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Iranian "Supreme Guide," decided that the only way to deal with the perceived threat from America was to raise the cost of any attempt by Washington to implement further "regime changes" in the Middle East.
According to our sources, Iran's decision to strengthen its commitment to Syria is one of several factors behind President Assad's recent decision to adopt a tougher stance against both the United States and Israel.
Iran's defense minister, Rear Adm. Ali Shamkhani (who signed the pact with his Syrian counterpart, Lt.-Gen. Mustafa Tlas), told reporters in Damascus yesterday that its "arrangements" also extend to Lebanon, where Syria maintains an army of 30,000 and Iran supports the Hezbollah (Party of God).
From Damascus, Shamkhani went to Beirut, where he presided over a war council attended by the entire political and military leadership of the Hezbollah. Top of the agenda was closer coordination between Hezbollah and Palestinian militant groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, both of which are supported by Iran.
The pact has three sections. One spells out the strategic partnership of the two nations on "military and intelligence" issues, including a framework for joint staff conversations, exchange of information, joint planning and exercises, and reciprocal access to segments of each nation's weapons systems.
The second section provides mechanisms whereby Iran and Syria will assist one another against aggression by a third party. The full text of the section has not been released, but Shamkhani and Tlas made it clear that "mutual defense" includes the commitment of troops and materiel to deal with any clear and present danger against either nation.
The third section is a memorandum on technical and scientific cooperation that commits Iran to build a national defense industry for Syria. The text also commits Iran to supply Syria with a wide range of weapons, including fighter-bombers and theater-range missiles, on a lend-lease basis. Iran has also agreed to train an undisclosed number of Syrian officers and military technicians, especially in the use of a wide range of missiles.
In a Thursday speech in Damascus, Shamkhani explained that Iran and Syria felt threatened by U.S. and Israeli "aggression."
"In the existing strategic configuration in our region, Syria represents Iran's first line of defense," Shamkhani said. "Iran, in turn, must be regarded as Syria's geo-strategic depth."
Iran already has a military presence in both Syria and Lebanon. The Iranian military mission in Damascus consists of over 500 officers and experts in weaponry and military intelligence. The Corps of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard has a contingent of 1,200 men in Lebanon on missions including training, deployment and maintenance of certain categories of weapons, and military intelligence. Each year Iran also trains an unspecified number of Syrian officers and military technicians, plus hundreds of Hezbollah fighters and cadres.
The new pact is presented by the state-controlled media in Iran and Syria as a response to the close military ties between Israel and Turkey.
Iranian and Syrian analysts believe that Washington plans a new regional military alliance to include Israel, Turkey, Iraq and Afghanistan. Moreover, seven regional countries are scheduled to sign an association accord with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) later this year. The leaders of the countries concerned (Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Israel and Jordan) have been invited to a NATO summit to be held in Istanbul in May.
As the only regional countries left out (along with Lebanon, which is de facto a Syrian dominion), Iran and Syria fear that their isolation could render them vulnerable to attack by either Israel or the United States.
The Irano-Syrian pact is scheduled to last for a period of five years but could be renewed with mutual consent.
To come into effect, the text must be approved by the Iranian and Syrian parliaments, which should happen early this summer. Syria's parliament, controlled by the ruling Arab Socialist Ba'ath (Renaissance) Party was never a problem. The new Iranian Majlis (parliament) is not expected to be a problem either since it will be controlled by groups loyal to the "Supreme Guide" and opposed to concessions to the United States.
The recent defeat of the so-called "reformist" camp in Iran is certain to concentrate control of foreign policy in the hands of Khamenei and his special foreign policy adviser, Ali-Akbar Velayati.
In a series of speeches and articles last year, Velayati urged the leadership to adopt "a position of strength" vis-?-vis the United States and Israel. His argument is that the Bush administration is committed to the overthrow of the Khomeinist regime and that the only way to counter its "conspiracies" is to raise the stakes to a point that would be unacceptable to American public opinion.
The Iran-Syria pact is only part of Velayati's grand vision. A more important part is Iran's decision to acquire a credible nuclear deterrent, probably within the next two to three years, thus raising the stakes even higher.
It is no exaggeration to suggest that the new Iranian tough line has been encouraged by the reaction of both the United States and the European Union to the recent election in Iran, in which only handpicked pro-regime candidates were allowed to stand.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair has expressed his "sadness" but insists that rapprochement with Tehran would continue regardless. The European Union has gone further by suggesting that the controversial election represented nothing but a dark patch in an otherwise serene sky. As for Washington, the announcement by CIA chief George Tenet that the Iranian regime is "secure" is seen by the hard-line Khomeinists as an admission of American despair.
Just three months ago, the Iranian and Syrian regimes had their backs to the wall. Now, however, they manifest a new self-confidence. And that could lead either to a serious dialogue with Washington or, more likely, a sharpening of the conflict with it, especially in Iraq, Lebanon, and the occupied territories.


E-mail: amirtaheri@benadorassociates.com

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>> MUSLIMS IN CONVERSATION...

Progressive Islam in America

Under the intense public scrutiny focused on Islam in the years since September 11, 2001, pundits and citizens have asked what connection there is between terrorism and the teachings of the Q'uran, and whether Islam can coexist with democracy.
Host Krista Tippett addresses these questions to a spectrum of American Muslims who describe themselves as devout and moderate. They take us inside the way Muslims discuss such questions among themselves, and suggest that we must look first at Islam in this country. In this open society, they say, Islam has found a home like no other.

Listen | Read and share reflections
http://www.speakingoffaith.org/

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Israeli Bank Raid Hits Terrorists Pocket

DEBKAfile Special Report

February 27, 2004, 9:32 PM (GMT+02:00)


Israel's first dip into Palestinian terrorist bank accounts Wednesday, February 25, raised a storm in international banking circles greater than if Israeli troops had pushed into Bethlehem to avenge two recent Jerusalem bus blasts in which 18 Israelis and a foreign worker died.
Washington slapped the Sharon government's wrist, claiming its action in downtown Ramallah could destabilize the Palestinian banking system and should have been coordinated with Palestinian financial authorities, namely the pro-US finance minister Salim Fayad.
Israel responded that six months of painstaking intelligence-gathering had gone into pinpointing more that 400 accounts held by Palestinian terrorist groups and funded mostly by Syria, Iran and the Hizballah. Advance notice would have jeopardized the operation.
Some of the accounts belonged to the Fatah's al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, which claimed responsibility for the Jerusalem bus blasts as well as for the shooting ambush Thursday, February 26, at the Erez checkpoint from the Gaza Strip to Israel, killing an Israeli military reservist, wounding two, and halting the passage of Palestinian workers to their jobs in Israel.
Israeli officials cited the US presidential directive calling for a worldwide clampdown on terrorist financing which has so far netted no more than $130 million. Palestinian banks, they said, had been hijacked to finance Palestinian terrorist groups.
DEBKAfile's Washington sources reveal the US was under heavy pressure to have Israel's "armed robbers" pulled out of the banks - not only from Fayed, but from international banking heavyweight Palestinian-born Abdul Majid Shuman, head of the Arab Bank of Amman, one of the biggest in the Middle East, whose two Ramallah branches were stormed Wednesday together with the Cairo Amman Bank. Shuman called every head of government and international bank he could find, including the World Bank and Jordan's King Abdullah II who is on a visit in Malaysia, to insist that they intercede with the Bush administration to stop the Israeli operation. He warned the king that the Jordan-based institution's business reputation would suffer if Israeli troops could march in at will and examine confidential accounts.
Nonetheless, for 13 hours, no one interrupted Israeli police computer experts as they logged onto banking networks and examined accounts, or the officers stuffing up to $8 million into large holdalls in amounts corresponding to the targeted accounts.
Armed troops secured the operation outside. More than 40 Palestinians were injured when tear gas was used to break up stone-throwing mobs.
Ramallah, seat of Yasser Arafat's headquarters, was already tense, under assault from internal strife in the ruling Fatah. DEBKAfile's Palestinian sources report Mohammed Dahlan, interior minister in Mahmoud Abbas's short-lived government, has mounted a telling revolt against Arafat's leadership. Monday,February 23, 11 leaders of Fatah-North Gaza Strip resigned in a body. Threats to quit are coming from branch leaders in Gaza City, central and southern Gaza Strip as well as the West Bank centers of Nablus and its surrounding villages, Ramallah's environs and Arab Jerusalem.
The uprising forced Arafat to call the first Fatah Central Council meeting in 13 years. The session took place Wednesday night in Ramallah while Israeli police were going through the city's banks. It broke down after all-night debates failed to settle the crisis. Council members demanded immediate elections for a clean sweep of corrupt veterans. Arafat agreed but refused to set a date. He understands that electing young activists to Fatah's ruling institutions will wipe out his majority. Dahlan's "parliamentary revolt," if pulled off, would therefore be tantamount to a putsch.
After the bank operation was over, defense minister Shaul Mofaz announced the impounded funds would be spent on benefits for ordinary Palestinians. The hated roadblocks could not be removed as long terrorists stalked the borders, but facilities would be improved, as would also health services, school transport and food.
This will hardly mollify the Jordanian-Palestinian tycoon Shuman who is smarting after the second Israeli assault on his property. Exactly one year ago, Israel troops impounded $10,000 of Hamas funds from a financial institution he owns in the Jerusalem village of al Azariya.
Israel's bank raids will not halt the transfer of funds to terrorist groups. They will only divert a larger flow outside the banking system that will be harder to stem. Still, a large chunk of cash is now missing from their warchest
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Middle East "Super Monday" in Washington

DEBKAfile Special Analysis
February 28, 2004, 9:25 PM (GMT+02:00)
Javier Solana - these days a welcome visitor to DC
Monday, March 1, several hives of activity will focus on the Middle East's most intractable conflict and the next stage of the Bush design to remake the region.
Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon's two senior aides, Dov Weisglass and his new national security council director Giora Eiland, will be in Washington, officially to present the essentials of the prime minister's initiative for Israel's unilateral disengagement from the Palestinians by means of the partial evacuation of Israeli dwellers from the Gaza Strip and from isolated locations in the West Bank and the construction of a fence - both for protection against terrorists and as a divider.
To ease acceptance, the fence was shortened by 80 km and underwent major surgery to straighten out loops curving into the West Bank. The biggest sacrifice is the section that was supposed to guard Israel's international Ben Gurion airport, the densely populated Modi'in-Re'ut-Maccabim region, and highways linking it to Jerusalem, from terrorist attack. These vital areas will be denied the protection of a defense barrier separating next-door Palestinian areas.
The European Union's foreign affairs executive Javier Solana will land in Washington on the same day as the Israeli delegation. He will be coming to hear arguments from secretary of state Colin Powell and the president's national security adviser Condoleezza Rice in favor of Europe joining forces with the United States in the execution of a regional strategy and the Sharon plan.
All parties are aware that Israel will be at the receiving end of demands for further "adjustments" to make the Bush strategy attractive to the European Union.
Therefore, the fate of the Weisglass-Eiland presentation depends largely on the outcome of Solana's talks with US leaders.
Not entirely by chance, Friday, February 27, Irish foreign minister Brian Cowan handed visiting foreign minister Silvan Shalom in Dublin with a plan that Solana will also discuss with his American hosts. Ireland is the present EU president. The plan centers on the deployment of NATO forces in areas evacuated by Israel, NATO being a euphemism for European troops. Long dreamed of by Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and embodied in the Geneva proposals developed by Israeli dove Yossi Beilin and Palestinian Yasser Abd Rabbo, every Israeli government has rejected the notion in the past. Shalom explained to the Irish minister that the presence of foreign troops would hold Israel back from pursuing terrorists and prejudice its national security.
As he spoke, the subject was being thoroughly explored in the White House, according to DEBKAfile's Washington sources, by President George W. Bush and German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder when they met to bury their pre-Iraq War hatchet.
Solana will almost certainly take up the American offer. He will not miss the opportunity to gradually forced Israel back, step by step, into a comprehensive withdrawal - not only from the Gaza Strip but also from the West Bank under the US-European aegis. Every peace proposal he ever initiated always hinged heavily on Israeli concessions to the Palestinians.
The erosion has begun. Sharon's proposed removal of 17 of the 19 Gaza Strip Jewish settlements has morphed in diplomatic parlance to total withdrawal of settlers and troops alike. The most unobtrusive casualty of this projected stampede is the security strip along the Israel-Egyptian frontier that was enshrined in the 1979 peace treaty signed by the late Menahem Begin and Anwar Sadat, for which they shared a Nobel Prize and which holds up to the present day. Eliminating the border crossing at the southern tip of Rafah would push the Israeli frontier 70 km north almost up to the Mediterranean town of Ashkelon.
And that is just for starters. Powell, Rice and Solana are both old hands at the negotiating table. Concessions made at the outset are likely to snowball. The European official will not miss the chance of building on the Gaza withdrawal and partial removal of West Bank settlements. He will get his chance when Washington asks to hear what concessions Europe requires from Israel to get the Europeans behind the United States on other issues like Iraq and Syria.
Both sides will be keen to accommodate one another and increase Bush's Middle East momentum. The mission that takes Weisglass and Eiland to Washington is therefore not the presentation of the Sharon plan but rather to hear what further concessions are demanded before the Israeli prime minister is invited for his oft-postponed visit to the White House.
The Bush administration faces a far tougher challenge to its plans for the region on the Arab side of the Middle East. Monday, too Mark Grossman, the state department's Number Three, heads out for Jordan, Egypt, Morocco, Bahrain and Turkey, to sell the president's democratic reforms program to key Arab leaders as well as Ankara. His trip follows a little-noticed declaration delivered in unison last week by two moderate Arab leaders, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah and Egypt's Hosni Mubarak. Together, they flatly rejected the Western model of democracy that "does not suit a region largely driven by Islamic teachings." They affirmed that the US "Greater Middle East Initiative" is not compatible with the "its specificities and Arab identity." Bahrain has since endorsed this declaration.
To make sure the message is audible in Washington, 22 Arab League foreign ministers meet in Cairo this same "Super Monday" to draft a common stand against "the controversial American plan to spread democracy in the region." It will be tabled at the Tunis Arab summit on March 29-30.
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>> AHEM...

Al Qaeda Builds a Euro Army
From DEBKA-Net-Weekly Feb. 20 Updated by DEBKAfile
February 25, 2004, 3:10 PM (GMT+02:00)
Zawahiri and bin Laden - elusive voices on tape
Warnings of al Qaeda's continuing threat came Tuesday, February 24, from Washington and London as well as one of its top leaders. Addressing the Senate intelligence committee, CIA director George Tenet spoke of the spread of al Qaeda's radical agenda to local groups who now threaten the United States and are capable of 9/11 scale attacks.
British interior secretary David Blunkett, announcing new stringent measures to combat terror, said a terrorist attack on Britain was "inevitable."
Pointing up these statements, Osama bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri gave not one but two signs that his group was still after "Crusader" blood. Two recorded audiotapes reached the rival Arab TV stations, al Jazeera and al Arabiya. In one he threatened the United States with fresh attacks; the other condemned the French for banning the headscarf for Muslim schoolgirls. The Egyptian terrorist chief declared that the claim by US president George W. Bush that two-thirds of al Qaeda's leadership has been crushed was untrue.
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His assertion had been confirmed previously by the preliminary findings of a joint defense department-CIA inquiry ordered by the US President.
According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly's counter-terrorism sources in Washington, al Qaeda's backbone and that of its partner, al-Zawahiri's Egyptian Islamic Jihad are intact and fully operational. The Egyptian half of al Qaeda in particular has led a charmed existence. Since America's 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, only two senior Jihad operatives have been killed and not a single active member captured. The team found this discovery alarming enough to rush to Bush and warn him: "We have a gap in our intelligence the size of a big black hole."
Even more disquietingly, al Qaeda is discovered to be recruiting manpower in Europe at a brisk pace in a push into the continent personally advocated by Osama bin Laden. The Saudi-born terrorist has thus gained the upper hand in a debate within his organization's top leadership over its next focal arena. Bin Laden urged fostering the war on the "far enemy" (Europe) as against concentrating the movement's fury on the "near enemy" (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, South Asia).
The European arena, often neglected by American counter-terrorism agencies, is showing a dangerous dynamism. Data assembled for a preliminary assessment show al Qaeda in the process of evolving from terrorist networks and cells into a professional fighting force with military features.
According to French counter-intelligence, al Qaeda has recruited in France alone between 35,000 and 45,000 men and is organizing them into military-style units. They meet regularly for training in the use of weapons and explosives, combat tactics and indoctrination and are controlled from local and district command centers under the organization's national French command.
In Germany, Al Qaeda has recruited 25,000 to 30,000 men. The British domestic intelligence agency MI5 estimates 10,000 faithful have joined up in Britain, providing Blunkett with more than ample cause for concern.
Al Qaeda is a lot less active in Italy where counter-terrorist agencies hunt its cells to earth relentlessly. Moreover, al Qaeda does not need an important foothold in Italy because it already maintains a thriving presence next door in the Balkan countries of Albania, Kosovo and Macedonia, from which weapons, money and false documents are easily secreted to its European bases.
But unknown numbers are enlisting in Belgium, Switzerland, Holland, Sweden and Norway.
Recruitment across Europe continues apace and in greater secrecy than ever as a result of a switch to new recruiting techniques and appeal to fresh target-populations for building the Euro army. According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly's counter-terrorism sources, the authors of the interim report found that al Qaeda, intent on beating surveillance and penetration by intelligence services, no longer selects combatants at its usual hunting grounds in mosques, Islamic culture centers and Muslim immigrant neighborhoods. Instead, native Europeans freshly converted to Islam are targeted.
The new campaign is styled "the white recruitment drive" or "coffee shop conscription". Operational cells and recruiting agents patronize ordinary cafes on the high streets of Europe's major cities where they blend into the crowds. The new conscripts defy identification by European intelligence services because their Islamic lives are lived completely underground. There is therefore no way of finding their addresses telephone numbers. Unit-level meetings or training sessions, attended by 30 or 40 men, may take place under cover of social activity such as a holiday camp in a remote part of Europe. Tracking them down is getting harder as bin Laden's new Euro army expands at the rate of tens of thousands and when "white" recruits may already form some 25 percent of the total.

Copyright 2000-2004 DEBKAfile. All Rights Reserved.

Posted by maximpost at 3:24 PM EST
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>> OUR FRIENDS IN GERMANY AND SYRIA...

SYRIENS GEHEIMES ATOMPROGRAMM

Die Spur f?hrt nach Hanau

Von Sebastian Knauer

Ein Ermittlungsverfahren Stockholmer Beh?rden sowie Recherchen der CIA erregen einen schweren Verdacht. Syriens Diktator Baschar al-Assad betreibt wom?glich ein geheimes Nuklearprogramm - mit schwedischer und deutscher Hilfe. Das Know-how zum Umgang mit dem Spaltmaterial soll aus der Atomfabrik Hanau stammen.

Hamburg/Stockholm - Der freundliche Amerikaner im Business-Anzug kam ziemlich schnell zur Sache. In den R?umen der US-Botschaft in Stockholm an der prachtvollen Dag Hammarskj?lds V?g 31 stellte er sich als Mitarbeiter der CIA vor. "Sie k?nnen uns vielleicht helfen?", sagte er dem zuvor telefonisch kontaktierten schwedischen Kernkraftexperten.
Der konnte helfen. Er berichtet dem b?rtigen Amerikaner im vergangenen November von seinen internen Kenntnissen der Nuklearanlage "Randstad Mineral" im mittelschwedischen Sk?vde, eine knappe Flugstunde s?dwestlich von Stockholm. In der Anlage, die mit dem US-Konzern Westinghouse kooperiert, arbeiteten zwischen 1999 und 2002 syrische Techniker an einer so genannten "Extraktionsanlage" zur Gewinnung von Uran.



DPA
Arbeiter in der Atomfabrik Hanau: Wo landeten die "kontaminierten Reststoffe"?
Der dazu notwendige Rohstoff kam aus Deutschland: Nach den Transportgenehmigungen des Bundesamtes f?r Strahlenschutz waren es "unbestr. kontaminierte Reststoffe" mit "5 Prozent angereichertem Uran (Uranoxid)" aus der stillgelegten hessischen Nuklearfabrik in Hanau. "Der Ami wurde ganz wach, als er das h?rte", erinnert sich der schwedische Kernkraftexperte.
Hilfslieferungen f?r Syriens Bombe?

Damit bahnt sich f?r die hessische Nuklearfabrik m?glicherweise ein neuer internationaler Atomskandal an. W?hrend der b?ndnisgr?ne Bundesau?enminister Joschka Fischer noch verzweifelt Wege sucht, den von Kanzler Gerhard Schr?der zugesagten Export der Hanauer Neu-Anlage nach China zu verhindern oder wenigstens zu verz?gern, entpuppt sich die alte Brennelementefabrik immer mehr als politische Zeitbombe. Mehr als 40 Tonnen uranhaltige Abf?lle aus Brennelementen der Firma Siemens f?r deutsche Atomreaktoren wurden seit 1996 bis 2000 offiziell nach Schweden verkauft.

"Wir liefern keine radioaktiven Abf?lle, sondern werthaltige Reststoffe ins Ausland", sagt Helmut Rupar, Chef der Hanauer Nuklearanlage. Doch die "kontaminierten Reststoffe", so die offiziellen Transportpapiere des Bundesamtes f?r Strahlenschutz in Salzgitter, verhelfen m?glicherweise heute dem arabischen Syrien zur Bombe.



Die AECS-Anlage im syrischen Homs: Plutonium statt Blaukorn, Anthrax statt Narkosemittel, Nervengas statt Pestizide?
Denn in der syrischen Stadt Homs n?rdlich der Hauptstadt Damaskus steht auf dem Gel?nde des syrischen Atomforschungszentrums ein kastenf?rmiges Geb?ude aus blau-grauen Metallw?nden. Geliefert hat das offiziell als "Reinigungsanlage f?r Phosphors?ure" deklarierte Innenleben die schwedischen Firma Meab mit Sitz bei G?teborg und einer Zweigniederlassung im nordrhein-westf?lischen Aachen. Schwedische Kernkraft-Insider berichten, dass die Fabrik baugleich mit der inzwischen still gelegten "Ranstad Mineral" ist, mit der Uran gewonnen wurde.
Inhaber und Gesellschafter der 1970 gegr?ndeten Meab ist jeweils Hans Reinhardt, 68, einer der f?hrenden Nuklearchemiker Schwedens. Er hat diverse Patente f?r chemisch-physikalische Verfahren zur Abtrennung von Stoffen aus Mineralien entwickelt. "Unsere Anlage in Schweden dient der Produktion von lebensmittelreiner S?ure, sagt Reinhardt, "die f?r die Herstellung von D?ngemitteln gebraucht wird".

Exporthalle hinter meterhohen Mauern

Tats?chlich steht die Exporthalle hinter den meterhohen Mauern und mit Wacht?rmen gesicherten Gel?nde einer "D?ngemittelfabrik". Hausherr und Betreiber ist allerdings die Atom Energy Commission of Syria (AECS). Westliche Geheimdienste vermuten schon lange, dass hier Teile des ABC-Waffenprogramms von Damaskus vorangetrieben wird - Plutonium statt Blaukorn, Anthrax statt Narkosemittel, Nervengas statt Pestizide. Der tats?chliche Nutzen der Dual-Use Anlagen in Syrien, sagt der Berliner Sicherheitsexperte Oliver Thr?nert, "sind unklar". Wenig weist jedenfalls auf Best?nde von Massenvernichtungswaffen hin, wie sie bei den von Washington erkl?rten "Schurkenstaaten" vorhanden seien.

Der schwedische Deal ist jedoch ein weiterer Hinweis, dass Syrien, das bereits Raketentechnologie aus China oder potenzielle Giftgas-Technik aus den USA, Frankreich oder Deutschland importierte, in den Club der Atomm?chte strebt. Das Land des Nachwuchs-Diktators und Staatsoberhaupts Baschir Assad verf?gt selbst ?ber keine zivil genutzten Reaktoren zur Energieerzeugung.

Kleinanlagen f?r den "Yellow Cake"

Immerhin kooperiert Damaskus mit der Internationalen Atomenergiebeh?rde (IAEA) in Wien bei der Entwicklung von "Kleinanlagen", um uranhaltigen "Yellow Cake" zu gewinnen. Nach ?berzeugung des Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, der "erste Schritt in einem nationalen Atomprogramm".

Auch die Besch?ftigung der syrischen Experten wurde in Schweden von den Atomaufsichtsbeh?rden abgesegnet. Seit 1999 befand sich auch der jetzige AECS-Generaldirektor, Ibrahim Osman, mit f?nf weiteren Mitarbeitern ?ber wechselnde Zeitr?ume im schwedischen Sk?vde zum "Wissenschaftsaustausch".



DER SPIEGEL
Schon damals wunderten sich die schwedischen Kraftwerksingenieure ?ber das besondere Interesse der nah?stlichen Kollegen an der Mineral Randstad-Anlage, in der urspr?nglich Uran aus heimischem Schiefer gewonnen wurde. Syrien verf?gt ?ber ?hnliche uranhaltige Phosphatvorkommen. "Irgendwas war da im Busch", sagt ein Beteiligter. Erst als einige Gramm Plutonium aus der Aufarbeitung der Hanau-Chargen auf einer ?rtlichen M?llkippe gefunden wurden, reagierte die schwedische Atomaufsicht.(SPIEGEL 18/2002, Atomm?ll im Birkenwald) Zudem waren aus Mineral Randstad einige sorgf?ltig inventarisierten Mengen des hochgiftigen Plutonium spurlos verschwunden.
"Ich sage nichts. Auf Wiedersehen"

Vergangene Woche er?ffneten die schwedischen Sicherheitsbeh?rden ein Ermittlungsverfahren gegen den Importeur. Meab-Chef Reinhardt hatte den Nachbau der Urananlage ohne beh?rdliche Genehmigung bereits seit 1999 ins syrische Homs verschiffen lassen. Kaufpreis: vier Millionen Euro. Im Januar 2004 soll in Damaskus Probelauf gewesen sein. Reinhardt zum SPIEGEL: "L?cherlich, ich sage dazu nichts. Auf Wiedersehen."

Gegen?ber der schwedischen Tageszeitung "Expressen" zeigte sich Reinhardt, dessen Sohn und Diplom-Ingenieur Niclas als Gesellschafter mit einer Einlage von 25.000 Euro in Aachen fungiert, ahnungslos: "Ich wei? nicht einmal, was die Abk?rzung AECS bedeutet."

Das ist nicht ganz glaubw?rdig. Denn auf der Internetseite der Meab steht zur Eigenwerbung: "Schl?ssel?bergabe der AECS-Anlage in Homs, Syrien."
IM INTERNET

? Homepage der Meab
http://www.meab-mx.se/de/index.htm

SPIEGEL ONLINE ist nicht verantwortlich f?r die Inhalte externer Internetseiten.

? SPIEGEL ONLINE 2004
Alle Rechte vorbehalten
Vervielf?ltigung nur mit Genehmigung der SPIEGELnet GmbH

--------------------------------------------
>> S.T...

N. Korean prison camp video airs on Japanese TV
TOKYO - Japanese television yesterday aired what it said was rare footage of a North Korean prison camp for political prisoners.

The footage on Japan's Fuji Television Network, said to have been smuggled out of the communist state, showed poorly dressed men and women labouring in snowy fields.

Prisoners in drab grey uniforms - the men with their heads bared and the women wearing only scarves despite temperatures well below freezing - harvested cabbages and hauled heavy loads in the infamous Yodok 15 prison camp.

Fuji Television said the video was obtained from a defector who managed to secretly film the labour camp, located 100km north of Pyongyang.

In one scene, women working in a snowy field furtively stuffed cabbage leaves into their mouths, stopping when a guard - dressed in a heavy coat and fur cap - stepped near. Other footage showed pairs of men and women carrying what the daily Sankei Shimbun said were canisters of human waste slung from a pole across their shoulders.

Guards with rifles patrolled around the fenced-in camp, which had rows of barracks set together in the midst of a bleak countryside.

A report in October by the US Committee for Human Rights in North Korea said the country had between 150,000 and 200,000 political prisoners working as slave labourers in prison colonies.

The North Korean authorities have consistently denied that these camps exist or that human rights violations have occurred.

The report said many prisoners were given just enough food to be on the verge of starvation and were forced to do back-breaking labour such as mining for iron ore.

\-- Reuters
Copyright @ 2004 Singapore Press Holdings. All rights reserved.
-----------------------------------------------------
>> LE MONDE...

Mais o? est donc pass? Alain Jupp? ?
LE MONDE | 28.02.04 | 13h02 * MIS A JOUR LE 28.02.04 | 16h20
Officiellement en vacances aux sports hiver alors qu'il avait annonc? qu'il participerait ? la campagne pour les ?lections r?gionales, le pr?sident de l'UMP a d?command? plusieurs r?unions publiques. Ses partisans annoncent son retour pour le lundi 1er mars.
Bordeaux de notre envoy? sp?cial

Il va bient?t rentrer. Ses amis l'affirment, ses lieutenants le jurent : Alain Jupp? n'a pas d?sert? ; il va reprendre les commandes - de la mairie de Bordeaux, de la communaut? urbaine et de la campagne de l'UMP pour les ?lections r?gionales, dont il para?t ?trangement absent.




Invisible depuis le 20 f?vrier, le pr?sident de l'UMP prend simplement "des vacances en famille", aux sports d'hiver, "comme tous les ans ? la m?me ?poque", certifie une proche. Son retour est fix? au lundi 1er mars, au terme d'une parenth?se qui a suffi ? relancer les interrogations sur son ?tat d'esprit, sa r?sistance, son avenir.

"Dans ma mani?re de concevoir la politique, on ne met pas comme ?a la cl? sous la porte en laissant tomber, du jour au lendemain, ceux qui vous disent qu'ils ont besoin de vous", avait d?clar? l'ancien premier ministre, le 3 f?vrier sur TF1, en annon?ant qu'il quitterait la pr?sidence de l'UMP ? l'automne, mais qu'il n'abandonnait aucun de ses mandats et qu'il participerait ? la campagne des r?gionales. Depuis, sa disparition volontaire a r?veill?, chez ses partisans, la complainte de l'homme "d?prim?", "affect? au plus profond de lui-m?me" et pour qui "rien ne sera plus jamais comme avant".

"ON A TU? LE MAGICIEN"


A Bordeaux, le traumatisme du 30 janvier - date de sa condamnation ? 18 mois d'emprisonnement avec sursis et 10 ans d'in?ligibilit? - a laiss? des traces chez les ?lus jupp?istes, persuad?s que la justice a fait un mauvais sort ? leur maire. "On a tu? le magicien", souffle Jean-Charles Bron, adjoint ? l'?conomie, en ?voquant d'une voix ?mue le "b?tisseur" qui "a su changer le visage d'une ville endormie". Et d'ajouter aussit?t : "S'il doit partir, il y a une grosse inqui?tude pour Bordeaux."

Le tourment n'a pas gagn? les all?es de Tourny ni le cours de l'intendance, o? le ministre (UMP) d?l?gu? ? l'enseignement scolaire, Xavier Darcos a install? le si?ge de sa campagne pour les ?lections r?gionales. Proche parmi les proches de M. Jupp?, dont il fut le collaborateur ? Matignon (1995-1997), le candidat - qui s'est entretenu au t?l?phone avec l'ancien premier ministre mercredi 25 f?vrier - s'attend ? une prise de position vigoureuse de sa part contre Fran?ois Bayrou. "Les militants de l'UMP lui sont toujours tr?s attach?s, sa parole a beaucoup de poids", dit-il.

De son lieu de vacances, M. Jupp? s'est manifest? ? deux reprises. Outre cette conversation avec M. Darcos, il a supervis? la r?daction d'un texte de d?fense des viticulteurs, qu'il a valid? avec la d?put?e (UMP) de Gironde Marie-H?l?ne des Esgaulx, en d?but de semaine. Publi?e dans le Figaro du 27 f?vrier, cette apologie du vin, distingu? des "alcools durs", a ?t? sign?e par M. Jupp? et les parlementaires UMP du d?partement. Grands crus et mill?simes modestes subissent une ?rosion sensible de leurs ventes, que les viticulteurs attribuent ? la loi Evin et ? la campagne du gouvernement contre l'alcool au volant ; les producteurs bordelais font de cette crise l'un des enjeux de la campagne r?gionale.

Cela ne suffit pas, toutefois, ? remplir un agenda. Dans son ?dition du 25 f?vrier, Le Canard encha?n? relatait que plusieurs chefs de file d?partementaux de l'UMP avaient d?command? la venue de M. Jupp? sur leurs terres d'?lection. Ce dernier n'a pas pris part, de fait, au lancement de la campagne de Val?ry Giscard d'Estaing, le 20 f?vrier ? Clermont-Ferrand, comme il ?tait convenu. Sa derni?re apparition publique remonte au 19 f?vrier, ? Bazas (Gironde), o? il ?tait venu soutenir M. Darcos, en compagnie du pr?sident de l'Assembl?e nationale, Jean-Louis Debr?, et du secr?taire d'Etat aux PME, Renaud Dutreil.

En son absence, d'autres se sont charg?s de vanter ses m?rites. Jeudi 26 f?vrier, ? Hossegor (Landes), le pr?sident du groupe UMP de l'Assembl?e, Jacques Barrot, a profit? d'une r?union publique pour rappeler son importance dans le dispositif majoritaire. "Je tiens ? rendre hommage ? Alain Jupp?, a-t-il proclam? ? la tribune, lui qui a accompli beaucoup d'efforts pour donner naissance ? l'UMP."

"TOTALEMENT IMP?N?TRABLE"

En Gironde, les ?lus ne veulent pas croire ? un renoncement. Certains avancent l'hypoth?se d'une discr?tion forc?e : son entourage, sugg?rent-ils, l'aurait convaincu d'adopter une strat?gie qui n'irrite pas les magistrats de la cour d'appel, ma?tres de son sort. Cette version ne convainc pas tout le monde. "Depuis la d?cision du tribunal, indique un proche en haussant les ?paules, il est totalement imp?n?trable. Je mets au d?fi quiconque de dire ce qu'il pense r?ellement." D'autres reviennent sur la "lassitude" pr?sum?e de leur grand homme, qui aurait perdu l'envie de participer aux r?unions ?lectorales - dont il n'a, d'ailleurs, jamais ?t? particuli?rement friand.

La d?cision prise par V?ronique Fayet, une adjointe (UDF) de la mairie de Bordeaux, de s'enr?ler sur la liste r?gionale de Fran?ois Bayrou t?moigne, selon eux, d'un "affaiblissement" de M. Jupp?. La candidate s'est d?voil?e pendant les vacances de M. Jupp?, qu'elle n'avait pr?venu de rien. Son irruption dans la campagne a inspir? ? M. Darcos, furieux, un mot malheureux - il l'a qualifi?e de "femme adult?re" - dont il a d? s'excuser publiquement (Le Monde du 28 f?vrier). "Jamais, auparavant, elle n'aurait os? s'opposer au maire qui a fait sa carri?re politique", commente un ?lu municipal.

Pour son retour dans sa ville, programm? pour dimanche soir, M. Jupp? a pr?vu de se remettre aussit?t en campagne. Comme si ces quelques jours en montagne n'avaient constitu? qu'une pause, voire l'occasion d'un rebond. D'ici au 21 mars, son programme appara?t, pour l'heure, essentiellement girondin. Le 6 mars, il fera la promotion de la liste de M. Darcos au Cap-Ferret, aux c?t?s du ministre de l'?conomie, Francis Mer, et du vice-pr?sident de l'UMP, Jean-Claude Gaudin ; le 13 mars, il devrait faire ?tape ? Lacanau ; le 16 mars, enfin, il tiendra ? Bordeaux, avec le candidat, une ultime r?union avant le premier tour, en pr?sence du ministre des affaires ?trang?res, Dominique de Villepin, et de la ministre de la d?fense, Mich?le Alliot-Marie.

M. Jupp? devrait cependant se produire dans d'autres r?gions, affirme-t-on ? Paris, au si?ge de l'UMP : le 5 mars en Languedoc-Roussillon, le 12 mars en Poitou-Charente - la r?gion de Jean-Pierre Raffarin -, le 18 mars en Lorraine. "De nombreux autres d?placements devraient ?tre fix?s en d?but de semaine." Personne ne doute que, entre deux ?tapes, le toujours pr?sident du parti gardera l'?il riv? sur les pr?tendants ? sa succession.


Pascal Ceaux

* ARTICLE PARU DANS L'EDITION DU 29.02.04
---------------------------------------------

If Bush wants a mandate he'd better up the ante




Robert

Robb
Republic

columnist
Feb. 27, 2004 12:00 AM


President Bush supposedly launched his re-election campaign with a speech earlier this week to the Republican Governors Association.

Democrats want this election to be a referendum on Bush's tenure. Hence the endless drumbeat of criticism, sometimes reaching the point of farce.

Recently, for example, John Kerry has stood for the proposition that Bush was too quick to intervene in Iraq but too slow to intervene in Haiti. No sane calculation of the national interest could reach such a conclusion.

Bush, for his part, clearly wants to make the election a choice between alternative directions for the country, particularly on terrorism and the economy. As he put it: "The man who sits in the Oval Office will set the course of the war on terror, and the direction of our economy. The security and prosperity of America are at stake."

And he contends that "(o)ur opponents have not offered much in the way of strategies to win the war, or policies to expand our economy."

Indeed, Kerry's strategy for the war on terrorism, at least thus far, consists mainly of calling a summit of international leaders to discuss it. And his economic plan consists mainly of relabeling proposals primarily directed at other purposes, in health care, education and increased subventions to state and local governments.

Meanwhile, economic growth is now rather robust, although that has more to do with normal adjustments to business conditions than to Bush's tax cuts, whose primary effect will be to improve the long-term economic trajectory.

And the real war on terrorism is going rather well. The real war on terrorism, as Bush initially defined it, is against al-Qaida and other terrorist organizations of global reach.

The leadership of al-Qaida has been substantially disabled, its finances constricted and terrorist cells incapacitated around the world. And contrary to Democratic bleating, there has been a high degree of international cooperation in this effort.

But then there is the war in Iraq, which Bush continues to insist is part of the war on terrorism. While deposing Saddam Hussein was arguably in the national security interests of the United States, it was only tangentially linked to the war on terrorism.

And the failure to find weapons of mass destruction attenuates even that tangential link - that Saddam was a threat to transfer such weapons to terrorists who would use them against us.

The way Bush continues to describe and defend the war in Iraq raises the question of whether he is so focused on being a "war president," that he is susceptible to serious and dangerous miscalculation.

The war in Iraq has cost the American taxpayers $155 billion and counting. Given what has been discovered on the ground so far, it's hard to argue that deposing Saddam was the most effective investment of such money, if the goal is to protect this country against terrorist attack.

Moreover, at this point there is no clear or credible path to the democratic, peaceful, prosperous and united Iraq Bush has argued would be a transforming force in the Middle East.

American elections, however, are usually as much about the future as the past.

And there, Bush framed the election in telling and important terms: "Our opponents . . . seem to be against every idea that gives Americans more authority and more choices and more control over their own lives . . . I trust the people, not Washington politicians, to make the best decisions for their own money, their own health, their own retirement and their own lives."

This choice agenda is powerful stuff. The problem is, except for tax cuts, the Bush administration has flinched from fighting for it.

It gave up vouchers as part of its education plan before the first shots were even fired. And it folded early on making prescription drug coverage part of a premium-support alternative to Medicare.

To his credit, Bush supported the concept of private retirement accounts as part of Social Security reform during his 2000 campaign. Resistance, however, is strong, and there are difficult implementation choices to be made. Yet Bush appears content to run once again on the general concept, rather than a more specific plan.

That's not the way to achieve a mandate. Ronald Reagan got his tax cuts passed because he was fairly specific during the election about a 25 percent across-the-board reduction in individual income tax rates.

Running on a much more detailed choice agenda might not improve Bush's chances of getting elected. But it would make victory much more consequential.

Reach Robb at robert.robb@arizonarepublic.com or (602) 444-8472. His column appears Sundays, Wednesdays and Fridays.

Posted by maximpost at 12:47 PM EST
Permalink
Friday, 27 February 2004


>> THE OTHER ZAWAHIRI...

'Key capture' tightens net on bin Laden
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - Reports received by Asia Times Online say that Dr Khalid al-Zawahiri, the son of Osama bin Laden's iconic deputy, Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, has been apprehended in Afghanistan in what could be a major breakthrough in efforts to track down bin Laden.
On Monday night, Asia Times Online was told by high-level sources that Khalid had been trapped by Pakistani forces somewhere in the South Waziristan tribal area in Pakistan. However, he was said to have slipped across the border into Afghanistan and disappeared. On Wednesday, though, fresh reports indicate that Khalid, along with his wife and three children, have in fact been arrested and are in United States custody.
Details of Khalid's past activities are sketchy, but his capture - if true - is viewed as highly significant as he is likely to have information about the precise whereabouts and activities of his father, and bin Laden too, as they are suspected of hiding in the mountainous region from which Khalid was flushed before he fled to Afghanistan. Egyptian Ayman al-Zawahiri is the key al-Qaeda intellectual and ideological strategist.
There has been no official confirmation of Khalid's arrest, although Pakistani military officials reported on Wednesday that Pakistani troops, supported by helicopter gunships, on Tuesday arrested at least 20 people, including some foreigners, as they combed a rugged tribal area on the border with Afghanistan in a hunt for al-Qaeda and Taliban fugitives.
In an ironic twist, Ayman Zawahiri was in the news on Tuesday after a tape he is purported to have made accused US President George W Bush of lying when he asserted that most of the al-Qaeda network had been crushed. In a tape aired on Qatar's alJazeera satellite television network, Zawahiri said: "Bush's allegation that his troops have arrested more than two-thirds of al-Qaeda ... is full of lies. The leader of the most powerful country on earth is not embarrassed to say these deceptions and lies. It's gotten to the stage that he can ridicule his listeners to this degree."
The latest activity in the Pakistani tribal areas is a part of a major offensive by US-led forces on the Afghanistan side and Pakistani troops on their side of the border "smoke out" not only al-Qaeda remnants, but also elements of the Afghan resistance.
The United States is exerting heavy pressure on Islamabad to fully cooperate in this venture, as in the past elements within the Pakistan military and intelligence branches have been less than fully committed in assisting the US as they resent dancing to Washington's tune.
Soon after September 11, 2001, US authorities asked President General Pervez Musharraf simply whether he was "with us or against us", and Musharraf decided to go along with the US "war on terror". Now, apparently, he has been asked the same unconditional question in tracking bin Laden and co, and he has little option but to answer in the affirmative or face the consequences, such as sanctions or the loss of aid.
In January, the US approved US$395 million in aid to Pakistan, almost half of which will be used to write off debt to Washington. Under the agreement Pakistan will repay $200 million to the US, which would save it about $400 million-$500 million in interest payments over the period of the loan. Pakistan's foreign debt and liabilities total $35 billion, of which $33 billion is debt. Pakistan and the US have also agreed on a framework of how to utilize another $3 billion promised by the US over the next five years. The $3 billion package was announced by President George W Bush at Camp David in a meeting with Musharraf in June last year. According to the agreement, $600 million will be disbursed each year. Half of the amount will be for defense equipment purchases by Pakistan and the other half for economic development.
Afghan resistance lies low
The "hammer and anvil" operation now under way, with US-led forces on the one side in Afghanistan and Pakistani forces on the other side across the border, is making life difficult for the Afghan resistance as its supply lines are being squeezed. It's response has been to lie low until spring, when it plans a major offensive to capture key Afghan cities.
"At present, the resistance has no intention to fight the armies engaged in the present operation [US and Pakistani]. The resistance will respond at a venue of its own choice against US interests," a source close to the Taliban told this correspondent.
"Though, at present, there is a decision to be silent, soon, when coalition forces are fatigued with their search and seize operations, they will see a new crop of youths on suicide missions," according to other sources. The vanguard of these missions will include fresh young Afghan youths who have been "tamed and chosen for this task". They will rise up from the population and blow themselves up to hit US interests and force the foreign forces to leave Afghan soil," the source said.
The present Afghan operation follows the pattern of the US invasion of Afghanistan that started on October 7, 2001 in which a few Pakistani air bases were used for more than 55,000 sorties into Afghanistan. Presently, Kohat, Bannu and Jacobabad bases are being utilized, although there is no resistance from within Afghanistan at present.
Khalid al-Zawahiri, and even bigger fish, might be snared in this assault, but the Afghan resistance is biding its time.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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>> BUT THEN...

Afghanistan: Playing politics again
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - Even as military operations continue on both sides of the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan to flush out members of the Afghan resistance and remnants of al-Qaeda, initiatives continue apace to fill political vacuums that have the potential to derail any permanent Afghan peace process.
In the first phase of an extensive "hammer and anvil" military campaign, with US-led forces on the Afghan side of the border and Pakistani troops on the other side in the tribal areas of South Waziristan, Pakistani officials claim that they have arrested more than 20 foreigners. These include Saudis, Egyptians and Yemenis. However, officials refuse to comment on a February 26 Asia Times Online report that Dr Khalid al-Zawahiri, the son of Osama bin Laden's deputy, Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, has been apprehended ('Key capture' tightens net on bin Laden).
Pakistani troops have also managed to force many resistance fighters from their havens in Pakistan back into Afghanistan, and operations by US-led forces now continue in the Afghan provinces of Paktia, Paktika, Khost and the Kunar Valley.
On the political front, meanwhile, interim Afghan President Hamid Karzai revealed this week that he is considering a meeting with "moderate" former Taliban leader Wakil Ahmed Muttawakil, who was foreign minister in the regime of Mullah Omar that was run out of office in late 2001 in the face of a US invasion. Karzai said Muttawakil had written him a "nice letter" and that he was considering talks in an effort to reintegrate onetime Taliban supporters into government. Muttawakil was released from US custody several months ago and lives comfortably in a "restricted" house in Kandahar.
Also this week, an important meeting took place in Kandahar, headed by the governor, Yusuf Pashtun, at which the idea of a "greater Kandahar" was once again discussed. This envisages, as first proposed by Abdul Ahad Karzai, Hamid Karzai's father, that Kandahar act as the headquarters (capital) of all of the Pashtun belt provinces in the south and southeast of the country. The elder Karzai was chief of the Popalzai tribe, a former government minister and immensely respected among southern Pashtun tribes.
But the Taliban murdered him in 1999 in retaliation for his son trying to organize anti-Taliban opposition in 1998, where the younger Karzai had found some support among Pashtun tribal chiefs angry with the Taliban for their close ties with Arab radicals, such as al-Qaeda.
The overtures by Muttawakil (although certainly under "advice" from US authorities) and the sudden revival of the greater Kandahar concept are no accident. The moves are clearly designed as part of the process to find a counter-balance to the strong Northern Alliance (mostly non-Pashtun) influence in the north of the country, and more importantly, in the corridors of power in Kabul. The moves are also aimed to blunt the threat of the resurgent "non-moderate" Taliban in the country, in alliance with the Hebz-i-Islami Afghanistan of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. Hekmatyar is bent on stirring grassroots Pashtun feelings against foreigners in the country, and on playing on feelings of deprivation among Pashtuns, who, despite being the major ethnic grouping, believe that they are politically marginalized.
Although Hamid Karzai is Pashtun, Northern Alliance members dominate his cabinet, and they have stationed about 20,000 of their armed supporters in Kabul, where they have been given permanent residences. Among the bureaucracy, Pashtu-speaking officials have been replaced by Dari-speaking Tajiks, and Dari has become the language of business, breaking many years of tradition.
Now the Karzai-appointed administration in Kandahar wants to address Pashtun resentment by proposing greater authority and influence for Pashtuns. Although this amounts to "opposition within government", the moves have the backing of the US, which is also concerned about the grip on power that the Northern Alliance has in Kabul.
In this context, ex-Taliban minister Muttawakil's involvement is important, as the United States has for a long time attempted to split the Taliban substantially - even before the US attacked Afghanistan in late 2001. Muttawakil was one of its earlier successes, as he surrendered soon after the invasion began. With his release at this juncture, US authorities believe (hope) that he will be able to rally more "moderate" Taliban to his cause, away from the cause of Taliban leader Mullah Omar and Hekmatyar.
In the two years since the demise of the Taliban, Afghanistan remains nowhere closer to establishing a viable political system. Elections are scheduled for June, but already Karzai is talking of postponing them because of the poor security situation. Karzai's writ barely extends beyond the capital. Some districts are ruled by the Taliban, some by Hekmatyar's followers, some by opportunistic warlords, or a combination of these.
When US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld visited Kabul and Kandahar on Thursday, most people connected the trip to the military situation on the border and the much-publicized hunt for bin Laden.
Simply defeating the resistance in battle is not enough, if even that can be achieved. As important is a strategy that will bring about a political solution to allow the US to exit the country. Roping in "moderate" Taliban and playing the Pashtun card are continued endeavors in this regard.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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>> REPLAY OF TORA BORA...

Bring me the head of Osama bin Laden
By Pepe Escobar
The war in eastern Afghanistan and the tribal areas in Pakistan is barely on, but the Pentagon's spinning machine is in high gear. Who will prevail: al-Qaeda's number two, Ayman "The Surgeon" al-Zawahiri, or Commando 121?
The Pentagon's creative directors ruled that Commando 121, or Task Force 121, of General William Boykin - a self-described Islamophobe and a known Christian fanatic - was responsible for the capture of Saddam Hussein, when in fact the former dictator was arrested by Kurdish peshmerga (paramilitary) forces acting on a tip by one of his cousins and then sold to the Americans, according to Asia Times Online sources in the Sunni triangle. This week, without a blip in many a strategic radar screen, Commando 121 transferred from Iraq to Pakistan. On October 25 of last year, Asia Times Online reported that Boykin had been appointed in charge of the hunt for Osama bin Laden. It's snowing on Rumsfeld's parade.
European intelligence sources tell Asia Times Online to expect the same scenario "Saddam" for the eventuality of the capture of bin Laden and Taliban spiritual leader Mullah Omar. Bin Laden will be "smoked out", probably on a tip by an Afghan tribal leader willing to make a cool US$25 million. And all credit will go to the secretive Commando 121, which is known to comprise navy Seals and commandos from the army's Delta Force.
The Pentagon has fired its first rhetorical Tomahawks of the season - via a leak this past weekend by a "US intelligence source" that bin Laden, al-Zawahiri, Mullah Omar and about 50 top al-Qaeda operatives had been located in Pakistan's Balochistan province. Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf was said to be on the brink of authorizing an American intervention. According to the Pentagon script, the fugitives are "boxed in", packed in a tight group, surrounded by an array of US and British special forces, and apparently with no chance of escaping.
This sounds like a replay of Tora Bora in December 2001, when US-led forces were convinced that they had bin Laden trapped in the mountainous range of that name in Afghanistan, only to learn that he had moved on long before the worst of the massive US assault on the area. The difference this time is that the fugitives are now said to be in the "isolated" Toba Kakar mountains in Balochistan, northeast of the provincial capital Quetta, and very far from the Afghan province of Zabol, on the other side of the border.
The fugitives are supposed to be in an area between the villages of Khanozoi and Murgha Faqizai. There is a road between both villages - and not much else. The average altitude in these mountains is 3,000 meters. There is an obvious escape route: a tortuous mountain trail towards the Afghan border village of A'la Jezah. And there are the not-so-obvious routes, known only to bin Laden and a few Arab-Afghans familiar with the country since the early 1980s.
According to the Pentagon leak, the fugitives were found through "a combination of CIA [Central Intelligence Agency] paramilitaries and special forces, plus image analysis by geographers and soil experts". Predictably, local Balochistan authorities deny everything. But even if bin Laden and the whole al-Qaeda leadership are in fact encircled in this area - and not further north, between the provinces of Kunar in Afghanistan and Chitral in Pakistan, where they were supposed to be hiding - what's the point of telling the whole world about it?
CIA vs Pentagon
It's no less than a coincidence, then, that a new Ayman al-Zawahiri tape surfaced on Arab networks only one day after these Pentagon leaks claimed that they had al-Qaeda surrounded, with the Americans just waiting for some "authorization" to capture them. Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld will be in Afghanistan this week. Exasperated diplomats suggest to Asia Times Online that he may have personally negotiated the terms of the "authorization" with Musharraf. After all, these are the stakes that really matter for the Bush administration: when, where and how to spin the capture of bin Laden and Mullah Omar.
The CIA is already covering its back - just in case. CIA supremo George Tenet was on a secret mission to Islamabad in early February - arguably to discuss the modalities of spinning concerning bin Laden's whereabouts. Tenet will do anything to help George W Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney as the president has firmly kept Tenet in his job, even after the "intelligence failure" before September 11 and the "intelligence failure" concerning the missing weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. To further fireproof his cover this time, Tenet told the US Senate Intelligence Committee that al-Qaeda was capable of more September 11-style attacks inside American territory, citing evidence that al-Qaeda was planning to recruit airline pilots for such missions.
According to the CIA chief, bin Laden has "gone deep underground". He was not specific, and unlike the Pentagon, he did not point to the exact global positioning satellite coordinates of bin Laden and his crew of 50. Rumsfeld clearly knows something that Tenet does not.
Another key actor, Musharraf, is duly following his script - stationing "tens of thousands" of Pakistani army troops in the tribal areas and vigorously trying to "smoke out" the usual al-Qaeda and Taliban suspects. But sources tell Asia Times Online that very few Afghan-Arabs remain active in the Afghan resistance movement - only the ones who fought in the jihad of the 1980s against the Soviets, speak local Pashtun dialects and know each piece of rock in the Afghan and tribal area mountains. Musharraf's job is much easier now that the whole porous area has been declared off limits to the foreign press. Moreover, any Pakistani official source insists on strictly denying the presence of any American troops of any size, color or structure operating inside Pakistani territory.
But where are they?
Sources in Peshawar confirm to Asia Times Online that Pakistani and American forces are raising hell on both sides of the porous Pak-Afghan border, with Islamabad contributing with helicopter gunships, paramilitary forces and regular ground troops. This is the hors d'oeuvre for the already well-flagged upcoming spring offensive by the resistance. The American offensive at first will be concentrated in North and South Waziristan, on the Pakistani side, and the provinces of Paktia and Paktika on the Afghan side.
Pashtun tribals in the Afghan province of Khost confirm that after a bombing campaign, American forces and local Afghan allies brought with them the usual suitcases full of dollars and are now involved in house-to-house searches. This area used to be a stronghold of famous former Taliban minister and commander Jalaluddin Haqqani. The Americans will soon be forced to start a real war in Paktika - as the Hamid Karzai government in Kabul has admitted losing nine districts in the province, and running the risk of losing the rest. Some of the Paktika districts are now ruled by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hezb-i-Islami Afghanistan party, others by tribal leaders simply hostile to the American-backed Karzai regime. The Taliban also say that they now control several districts in Zabul province.
Islamabad is taking no prisoners. Now, Pashtun tribals cannot even indulge in their favorite pastime: to roll in their beloved Toyota Land Cruisers with tinted windows. Anyone not removing the tinted glass faces three years in jail, confiscation of the vehicle and a $1,200 fine.
Pakistan's information minister, Sheikh Rashid Ahmed, confirms that the army is now deployed "all over the tribal areas". "Our rapid action forces are there, they have sealed the border." The information minister's assurance that "no one is allowed to come in from Afghanistan" is part of the new official spin from Islamabad, "part of Pakistan's commitment to the international community against terrorism".
The information minister insists that Pakistan has not received from Washington any satellite pictures of bin Laden, al-Zawahiri or the al-Qaeda top 50 hiding in Pakistani territory. But much more interesting is his current estimation that US forces "would never enter Pakistan". Pakistan may have "sealed the border" with Afghanistan, but how to unseal it for the Americans is a matter to be discussed face-to-face by Rumsfeld and Musharraf this week. For this meeting, Rumsfeld can draw on his experience of discussing touchy issues with former CIA asset Saddam back in Baghdad in 1983.
The previous, official Pakistani script that its army could not legally enter in the semi-autonomous tribal areas has been reduced to dust. Hardline Islamist, anti-American sectors in Pakistan will not be amused. While the Musharraf system sells to Washington once again the idea they are trying to help the Americans to fight "the terrorists", nobody can tell with any degree of certainty what exactly Musharraf's game is, the Inter-Services Intelligence's game or the army's game.
And what if bin Laden decides not to follow the script? According to sources close to the Pakistani newspaper Khabrain, bin Laden has made his seven bodyguards take an oath to kill him in the event that he is in any danger of being arrested. He will try to blow himself up. Western diplomatic sources, on the other hand, prefer to insist that if bin Laden is arrested according to the current Pentagon plan, the whole operation will be kept secret - to be disclosed only a few weeks or days before the American presidential election in November.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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Waziristan Operation Successful, Objectives Achieved
Updated on 2004-02-27 08:50:34
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan : Feb 27 (PNS) - Director General, Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), Major General Shaukat Sultan has said the recently ended operation in South Waziristan Agency remained completely successful and its objectives were achieved.
Giving background of the operation, the DG said, last year on October 12, an operation was conducted in Angoor Adda, on confirmed reports that some terrorists were taking shelter in the area. In that operation eight terrorists were killed and 18 others arrested, he said while speaking in PTV programme 'News Night, late Wednesday night. This year on January 8, a search operation was conducted on the suspicion that some foreign terrorists were present in the area, Shaukat Sultan said.
Later, he said, a new strategy was adopted under which the tribal elders were asked to hand over the persons who give shelter to foreign terrorists. A list of suspected persons, involved in facilitating foreign terrorists, was handed over to these elders. The tribal elders, handed over most of them but uptill the given deadline, no foreign terrorist had surrendered, he added.
Clarifying the notion of wanted men he said, every person involved in terrorism and extremism is wanted. He said there is no list of wanted men in Pakistan, adding Pakistan's war on terrorism is broad based and it wants to root out menace of terrorism and extremism from the country.
He confirmed the arrest of some foreign women during the recent operation in South Waziristan Agency. He termed reports about presence of Ayman al-Zawahiri as fiction fantasies. About arrest of al-Zawahiri's son during the operation, he said it could not be confirmed until the completion of investigations. To a question, he said all tribals are cooperating and situation in the area is calm and peaceful.
Shaukat Sultan added that Pak army entered in tribal areas with the cooperation and counseling of tribal elders. Appreciating people of tribal areas, he said they are as Patriotic as any other Pakistani. He said, with the entrance of Pak army in tribal areas, roads have been built, schools and dispensaries have been set up for the uplift of the area's common man.
Responding to a question about the struggle of Kashmiris, the DG ISPR said, Kashmiris' indigenous struggle is for their legitimate right of self-determination which is clearly mentioned in the resolutions of UN Security Council. He said India is itself involved in massive state terrorism and human rights violations to suppress Kashmiri's indigenous struggle. He said Pakistan morally and diplomatically supports Kashmiris in their struggle to attain their right of self-determination.
Participating in the Programme, Foreign Office Spokesman, Masood Khan denied reports of Pak-US joint operation. He said Pakistan time and again clarified that such reports are baseless and have no reality. He said, Pakistan has conducted every operation on its soil on its own and there is no involvement of any foreign troops. The spokesman said, Pakistan was committed to root out terrorism as it was harming the image of Pakistan as well as economy and social progress of the country. He underlined the need to promote culture of tolerance in the society. He said, world community is highly appreciative of Pakistan's role in the global war on terrorism.

The End.
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>> SEOUL WATCH 1...

Roh's road: Is there a map?
By Aidan Foster-Carter
Our last article (One year on: South Korea's accidental president, February 27) sketched the background to the rise of Roh Moo-hyun, who this Wednesday marked the end of his first year as South Korea's president. One down, four more to go. So how is he doing?
Pretty awful, to be honest. That's not just my view, but the verdict of most South Koreans. Friend and foe alike reckon he's mostly making a hash of it. Yet ironically, with parliamentary elections due in just six weeks time on April 15, the same polls that give Roh a low rating suggest that the new Uri (We) breakaway party, which backs him, is in the lead. So what is going on in Seoul's febrile politics?
To be fair, not everything is Roh's fault. You can't blame him for the North Korean nuclear crisis, on which the latest six-party talks in Beijing have certainly pushed his first anniversary off the front pages. For that, Kim Jong-il and (in part) George W Bush are responsible, with South Korea caught in the middle.
Nor can last year's low gross domestic product (GDP) growth (under 3 percent) be laid at Roh Moo-hyun's door. South Korea's credit-card bubble, which burst last month with the nationalization of LG Card, the market leader, had already caused a backlash as debt-ridden consumers tightened their belts. But the policy of promoting plastic to boost demand - and the tax take, since plastic leaves records - was the idea of the previous Kim Dae-jung administration. Roh Moo-hyun merely inherited the consequences: faltering domestic demand.
Yet at least with Kim Dae-jung, you knew where you were. After a lifetime preparing himself to lead his country, he won the presidency at the fourth attempt - and at once took charge. Coming to power amid the worst of the Asian financial crisis, Kim pulled South Korea back from the brink of sovereign default - and went on to pursue vigorous restructuring and reform. Tearing down the old Korea Inc and Fortress Korea mentalities, he left South Korea a far healthier and more open economy than he found it. He didn't, alas, do the same for politics or corruption; Kim Jong-il got paid for their June 2000 North-South summit.
With Roh, it's amateur hour
Still, that I call leadership. With Roh Moo-hyun, by contrast, it's amateur hour. One looks in vain for any overarching vision or clear strategy. Not that this is unprecedented. Another Kim, Roh's erstwhile mentor Kim Young-sam (president 1993-98), was equally inconsistent: switching from dove to hawk on North Korea, and from economic reform to complacency, leading to catastrophe in his final annus horribilis of 1997. Rumor had it that YS used to ask his barber what people were thinking, and react accordingly.
But at least Kim Young-sam had some dignity and political smarts. Roh, by his own admission, is overwhelmed by the burdens of office. Last autumn, he frankly admitted he wasn't up to the job, and said he'd hold an (unconstitutional) referendum by December and step down if he lost. It never happened.
Frankly, this was disgraceful. South Korea's young democracy is robust, but it's grossly irresponsible thus to mess with the due political process. Why not wait until April's parliamentary election? All the worse if, as it now seems, this was in fact a ploy for Roh to restore his own plunging ratings. In effect, he scared voters by threatening them with the unknown so that they'd rally 'round. What a cheap trick.
Then there's his hypocrisy, if not worse, on corruption. Roh Moo-hyun campaigned as the people's candidate. His supporters brandished piggy-banks, to contrast their few pennies with the opposition Grand National Party's fat corporate bankroll. The latter has been amply exposed: ongoing probes have revealed massive illegal funding of the GNP by most of South Korea's largest companies.
Yet Roh himself is far from squeaky-clean, even if the sums are smaller. Two close advisers have been charged with taking illicit donations. Roh denies all knowledge, but a special counsel appointed by the GNP-controlled National Assembly is due to report in early March. Depending on its findings, it's not impossible that the opposition - including the Millennium Democratic Party (MDP), on whose ticket Roh was elected president but which he has since alienated - could begin impeachment proceedings.
No stand on corporate reform, union militancy
At best, Roh now has a real credibility problem. It's not so much that, in office, he has tacked more to the right. That's normal. Kim Dae-jung too dismayed his left-wing supporters, but saved his nation, by ditching easy populist rhetoric when he had to confront the realities of running a globalized economy.
But with Roh, you wonder if the guy at the wheel knows where he's going - or even if he ever learned to drive. Where does he stand, for instance, on two key issues: corporate reform and union militancy? With his populist past as a labor lawyer, he was expected to harry the chaebol and favor workers. In fact he has vacillated on both. At one point he asked prosecutors not to go too hard on SK, the third-largest conglomerate, for perpetrating an accounting fraud to the tune of more than US$1 billion.
As for labor, rail unions that struck (illegally) against privatization felt the full force of the riot police. But that was the exception. Most everyone else - truckers, bank workers, et al - who held the country to ransom last summer got what they wanted, with the government encouraging employers to cave in. South Korea badly needs better industrial relations, but true compromise is not the same as surrender.
Then there's the cabinet - or was. Half of Roh's original appointees have already quit: some to run in April's elections - in Seoul ministers are not normally members of parliament - but many because they were just awful at the job. Vowing to end the bad habit of over-frequent reshuffles, Roh Moo-hyun had chosen an avowedly experimental cabinet - including, to his great credit, four women, twice as many as ever before. These are doing well, but many of the chaps were bad choices. In replacing them, Roh has wisely if belatedly gone for the older and wiser experienced hands whom he had initially shunned.
I said Roh has no vision, but he has one, er, capital idea. He wants to move the capital from Seoul some 100 kilometers further south - in the Chungchong provinces, which duly voted for him on this prospect. Whether this is any more than an expensive folly and distraction, we shall consider another time.
Bad ties with major media
Then there's the media. Roh Moo-hyun doesn't like the major Seoul dailies - the JoongAng, Chosun, and Dong-a Ilbos - nor they him. There is fault on both sides, but at best it's petty and undignified for a president to refuse interviews with the main papers. (He prefers online media favored by the young, such as Ohmynews, which support him.) At worst, in a society where not so long ago censorship was routine, it's a little ominous for the government to threaten the press. Under Kim Dae-jung the Seoul dailies had more than their share of tax and other audits. As a minister, Roh Moo-hyun strongly supported this.
What about foreign affairs? Granted, the North Korean nuclear crisis puts South Korea between a rock and a hard place - but here too, Roh is visibly wriggling. On his first (ever) trip to the United States last May, he got on better with George W had than many feared. He also surely made the strategically right choice, though unpopular at home especially with his supporters, in committing South Korean troops to Iraq.
So far so good. Less smart was to haver over this decision, saying out loud that he hoped in return the US would ease up on North Korea. Yes, obviously - but some messages are best conveyed in private. Embarrassing too was Roh's sacking last month of his foreign minister, Yoon Young-kwan, for failing to stop Foreign Ministry bureaucrats briefing against him. These professionals feared that Roh's leftist advisers, whom they derided as "Taliban", were imperiling ties with Washington. Roh's petulant reaction betrayed his personal pride and pique, but did nothing to resolve the underlying problem.
To be clear, in changing times any leader has every right to reconsider his or her country's orientation. The South Korea-US alliance may well need fine-tuning, perhaps even rethinking. But with Pyongyang ever ready to make mischief, and other powers such as China and Japan taking a keen interest, this needs to be done subtly, sotto voce, behind the scenes - not by playing to the gallery, or all too public infighting.
Hoping for diplomacy, finesse, magnanimity
I could go on - and Roh Moo-hyun will. With four more years of his presidential term still to run - assuming no more tantrums, or impeachment - we can but hope that with time he'll grow into the job: steering a steadier policy course, and learning a modicum of diplomacy, finesse and magnanimity.
What's more, he may even have parliament on his side. Remarkably, the new Uri (We) party - an MDP breakaway that backs Roh Moo-hyun, with just 47 of the assembly's 273 seats - is currently leading in the polls over both a discredited and fraying GNP and an MDP that risks being squeezed into oblivion.
Hope springs eternal, even for South Korea's jaded voters. In 2002 they elected Roh Moo-hyun, hoping for a new broom that would sweep clean. A year on, he looks a frail and unfit vehicle for these laudable aims - but they're stuck with him, and the GNP stinks, so maybe they'll give him a second chance.
Let's hope he deserves it. If not, then provided he appoints able ministers, perhaps Roh's own failings won't matter too much. He may even end up in effect sidelined, as the best argument yet for critics who have long reckoned that South Korea's imperial presidency concentrates too much power - and would like, for instance, to see parliament rather than the president appoint the prime minister and cabinet.
Four more years. As is clear, I wish the South Korean ship of state had a more skilled hand on the tiller at this critical time. But the people have chosen; so let's hope Roh Moo-hyun learns on the job. If not ...
Aidan Foster-Carter is honorary senior research fellow in sociology and modern Korea, Leeds University, England.

(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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>> SEOUL WATCH 2...


One year on: South Korea's accidental president
By Aidan Foster-Carter
It seems Roh Moo-hyun's fate to be upstaged by North Korea. A year ago, his inauguration as South Korean president was spoiled by Pyongyang firing a missile hours beforehand. Just a small missile, and a routine test - but in the edgy atmosphere of the then new and escalating North Korean nuclear crisis, quite a party-pooper. Uncouth, too, given that Roh was and is committed to maintain his predecessor Kim Dae-jung's Sunshine Policy of being nice to the North, seemingly more or less unconditionally.
A year later, it's happening again. On Wednesday, February 25, the day when Roh completed the first year of his five-year presidential term, the Korean main event was elsewhere - in Beijing, where six-party talks on the nuclear issue at last reconvened after half a year's hiatus. Here again it was Pyongyang that, after playing hard-to-get for months, suddenly named the date. Coincidence?
But this time maybe Roh won't mind his celebrations being overshadowed. For, frankly, what's to celebrate? From any angle, this supposed people's champion has had a pretty dreadful first year. His approval ratings have plunged from an initial 80 percent to 30 percent or less. His fan base is disillusioned, his foes are as hostile as ever - it's mutual - and in the United States and Japan worried allies are shaking their heads.
This seems a good moment not just to assess Roh Moo-hyun, but also take a wider look at the currents in self-styled "progressive" South Korean thinking that he (somewhat ambiguously) represents. It's important too to examine the context and background of his frankly unexpected rise to the top spot.
Roh Moo-hyun is an unlikely, even accidental president. Much in his background makes you want to root for him. A poor farm boy who couldn't afford college, he worked on building sites while studying to qualify as a lawyer - almost unheard of without a degree, in education-obsessed South Korea.
As a labor lawyer in Busan, South Korea's second city, he tussled with the then military dictatorship - briefly, but enough to burnish his street cred. He entered politics as a protege of local democratic hero Kim Young-sam - only to break with him when "YS" joined his ex-military persecutors to form a new conservative coalition, the forerunner of today's main opposition Grand National Party (GNP). On that ticket, Kim Young-sam was elected president in 1992, serving from 1993-98.
Principled loser spent years in the wilderness
For Roh Moo-hyun, this meant years in the wilderness, sustained by a faithful Internet fan club, Nosamo ("We Love Roh"), which admired him as a principled loser. Serving briefly as fisheries minister under Kim Dae-jung, Roh was still very much a dark horse when, two years ago, he threw his hat in the ring for the Millennium Democratic Party (MDP)'s nomination to run for president as DJ's successor.
In the elitist world of Seoul politics, all smoke-filled-room salons and backroom deals, this provincial would have stood no chance - had not the MDP, worried about low ratings, opted to pick its candidate via Korea's first-ever primary elections. Fed up with the same old smug faces and the smell of money, voters wanted change. Roh's folksy manner, and Internet campaigning by Nosamo, set a bandwagon rolling. The favorites were swept aside. The people had spoken, and their choice was Roh Moo-hyun.
That was just the nomination. Winning the election was something else. For most of 2002 Roh trailed in the polls - behind not only the GNP's Lee Hoi-chang, a former judge, but also Chung Mong-joon, a Hyundai scion running as an independent. By autumn, moves were afoot within the MDP to dump Roh.
Two things saved him. Roh and Chung joined forces - with the one to run to be decided by an opinion poll after a televised debate. Narrowly, the punters chose Roh. But above all, he rode public anger over the death of two teenage girls crushed by a US military vehicle, whose drivers were acquitted by a US Forces in Korea court martial. Mass candlelit vigils gave the world the impression that younger South Koreans viewed this tragic accident as a worse crime, and their longtime US ally as a greater threat, than the specter of Kim Jong-il's monstrous regime - even as a new North Korean nuclear crisis was unfolding.
Roh Moo-hyun milked that mood, making a virtue of never having visited the United Statets: Why go? To kowtow? It worked. On December 19, 2002, helped again by an Internet campaign that got normally apathetic twentysomethings out to vote, the poor farm boy beat the patrician judge. It was close - 48.9 percent to 46.6 percent - but a wider margin than last time, in 1997, when Kim Dae-jung just topped Lee Hoi-chang. Most of the other 4 percent of votes went to an avowed leftist, Kwon Young-gil of the Democratic Labor Party (DLP).
Young democracy chaotic, short-lived
Taking a long view, this result gave South Koreans reason for satisfaction with their young democracy, as the dark era of dictatorships alternating with violent regime change recedes ever further into history. Syngman Rhee, the Republic of Korea's first president in 1948, became an autocrat until overthrown by a student revolution in 1960. The restoration of democracy was chaotic, and proved short-lived.
In 1961, Park Chung-hee mounted Korea's first military coup in almost 600 years: a shocking event. With a rod of iron, Park drove South Korea's forced-march industrialization - out of African levels of poverty, to become today's economic juggernaut. For that achievement, and for his lack of corruption, many Koreans give him grudging posthumous respect - but others cannot forgive his brutal methods.
This remains a major fault line in Seoul's politics. Roh's radical supporters want to "cleanse history" by purging what they see as continuing remnants of the Park system - such as the dominance of a few big conglomerates (chaebol), leading to corruption and rampant inequality. More on all that another time.
Park Chung-hee died as he had lived: brutally - shot across the dinner table in 1979 by the head of his own Central Intelligence Agency. History then repeated itself: while democrats squabbled, soldiers seized power. Chun Doo-hwan (1980-88) was no Park, and is widely unforgiven for both the May 1980 Kwangju massacre, when paratroops killed at least 200 protesters, and gross personal corruption; investigators are still hunting for the loot.
But at least Chun went quietly. In 1987, with the world's gaze on the next year's Seoul Olympics, protests forced him to concede direct elections. (Roll on Beijing 2008!) The rival democrats, Kims YS and DJ, ran separately - thus handing victory to Chun's sidekick, ex-general Roh Tae-woo (no kin to Roh Moo-hyun). Also later jailed for corruption, Roh TW is universally reviled in Korea as mul (water). I beg to differ. He was South Korea's equivalent of former Soviet leader and reformer Mikhail Gorbachev, only more successful in his smooth transition to democracy. Soldiers like him are now back in barracks for good; how many other Asian countries can say as much?
If 1987 was the turning point, each subsequent presidential election has marked a further democratic milestone:
1987: First renewed direct election.
1992: First post-military fully civilian president, Kim Young-sam.
1997: First win by an opposition leader, Kim Dae-jung (whom Chun had tried to hang as a supposed communist).
2002: First victory by a non-elite political outsider, Roh Moo-hyun.
Formally, then, South Korean democracy is working pretty well. But substantively? And has Roh Moo-hyun delivered? Watch this space.
Aidan Foster-Carter is honorary senior research fellow in sociology and modern Korea, Leeds University, England.

(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)

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>> BALLYHOO?

SPEAKING FREELY
India's paradox of growth
By Durgadas Roy
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.
India's gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to grow by 8 percent in 2003-4 - the highest since economic reform began in 1991. Most research organizations have revised their estimates of GDP growth upwards following a turnaround in investment cycles, sustained buoyancy in consumption demand and supportive macro fundamentals. Emboldened, the government's Planning Commission now expects to achieve its GDP growth target for the 10th five-year plan (2002-2007).
Whether India can sustain its growth rate is debatable, but what is disturbing is that in the quest for higher GDP growth, the Planning Commission has become increasingly insensitive to the distribution aspect of growth. In the new era where competitiveness is the key parameter, the capacity and willingness to grow will decide the growth pattern of the country's states. And this is exactly what has happened.
India's prosperous states have prospered further, while poor ones have become poorer. The growth rates of the domestic product of major states have witnessed wide fluctuation. It is a truth universally acknowledged that growth for a single year looks good when it is on a low base. To that extent, advance estimates by the Central Statistical Organization, suggesting a heady, fast-paced 8.1 percent GDP growth for the current fiscal, need to be seen in the right perspective.
However, the latest figures do suggest not just a welcome turnaround in agriculture, but a greatly encouraging trend in both services and industry as well. The latest figure for agriculture, an estimated 9.12 percent growth, needs to be seen against an actual decline of as much as 5.2 percent in 2003. But growth drivers do seem to be more widespread across sectors this time.
Apart from buoyant farm output, there is sustained growth in such high-income services as trade, hotels, transport and communications. The handsome growth in commercial services is doubly fortunate. For one, it is much more sustainable. For another, it is much more growth enhancing. The last time the economy notched 7 percent growth, the massive hike in bureaucrats' pay and hence the heightened contribution of the public administration did shore up fiscal figures. Besides, the spurt in credit off-take, the runaway growth in the Sensex index and the primary market now back with a bang, should all boost banking and broking services. So the sector as a whole does seem headed for the fast lane, what with telephone connections to continue to grow at unheard-of-rates, and much better traffic growth in ports, railways and by air.
It is good that industrial growth seems to be gathering momentum as well, after years of modest growth. It remains to be seen if there is sustained pickup in investments. The rise of capital goods output and the surge in imports do suggest much improved investment demand. The bottom line really is much improved investment rates for the economy to traverse a new high-growth path. Year-end stock-taking is invariably Janus-faced: whether the focus is on the life of the individual or the state of the economy. This time to look ahead is also the time to look back.
But even this dualism can only explain partly why opinion about the Indian economy will remain somewhat divided as we head into the year 2005. India is no doubt shining, as the buzz word goes these days, but is it shining as brightly for all of its billion-plus people? The economy is in the middle of a great expansionary phase, but is this boom sustainable over the medium term? On the positive side, the macroeconomic climate has not looked better for years. While concerns about the fiscal deficit remain, interest rates have touched a new historic low, triggering a consumer boom, but also a significant reduction in the debt burden of corporates.
With a little helping hand from the weather gods, the prospects of the farm sector, too, have improved, raising hopes of more than 7 percent annual growth. But there are the downsides. For one, the paradox of India's "jobless" growth. Over the past few years, employment in India's organized sector, public or private, has come to a virtual standstill, causing millions of youth to join the jobless list every year.
For another, there has been a secular long-term decline in investment in agriculture, which has resulted in stagnant farm output and falling productivity. As a recent survey shows, India is today a divided country, of prosperous cities and poor villages, with a large and growing gap between consumption levels in urban and rural areas. No economy can afford such stark divides.
Modern growth processes leave large segments of the population completely untouched. Former World Bank president Robert McNamara estimated that about 40 percent of the developing world's population did not benefit at all from the economic growth of the 1950s and 1960s. Even other studies of the 1960s did not support the hypothesis that economic growth raises the share of income of the poorest segments of the population. Irma Adelman and Cynthia Taft Morris revealed in their studies that the poorest 60 percent group benefited only when there were broad-based efforts to improve the economy's human resources.
The policies of the state in these countries should be oriented towards poverty alleviation, employment generation, satisfying basic needs of the people and reduction in income inequality. Dr Amartya Sen has cautioned policy-makers that reform must be person-related and driven by ethical goals. While markets, GDP growth and technological change are the focus of most reform, it is important to ensure that reform advances the cause of life and freedom, particularly of the deprived. Taking birth expectancy at birth and the infant mortality rate as two basic measures of the quality of life, Sen brought out some features of the Chinese reform experience that are not as bright as the rapid material progress that has caught everyone's attention around the world.
Anyone who looks at India's post-liberalization period must admit that the country's employment growth rate, with a rising population, only worsened the situation. Warning bells have been sounded by the International Labor Organization (ILO), which has pointed out that the economic reform process initiated in the 1990s may not have generated enough employment opportunities. Employment growth has decelerated in the past five to six years. According to ministry of labor data, for the very first time, employment in the organized sector actually fell in 2001-02. During 1990-96, employment in the public sector increased by 0.58 percent per year, but during 1996-2003, it has fallen steeply to a negative 0.50 percent; and during 1990-96, employment in the organized private sector increased by 1.56 percent per year, but during 1996-2003, this growth rate declined dramatically to just 0.11 percent per year.
Whenever a conflict between growth and employment is unavoidable and optimization of one results in a setback to the other, employment ought to be given priority over output in India due to the following reasons. First, the life of the unemployed, particularly those belonging to the lower strata of society, is very miserable. Keeping the pitiable condition of the unemployed in view, the need for social security measures for them is felt in all egalitarian societies. However, there are no social security arrangements for the unemployed in this country. Unemployed persons in India either survive on the support they sometimes get from other members of the family or they fall back on their meager savings, if any. Therefore, employment generation in Indian conditions must receive overriding priority.
In the past five years, even after taking into account the "feel good" and shining of 2003-04, real GDP growth would have averaged around 5.7 percent per year, as compared to 6.7 percent per year during 1992-96. Perhaps no single piece of economic data is awaited and examined more eagerly than that on growth of real GDP. A host of business houses, banks and international organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, not to speak of governmental agencies, report quarterly appraisals of India's economic growth. These reports are preceded and followed by guesstimates of expected short-term prospects for GDP growth.
Traditional students of economics would find this emphasis misplaced since they have been trained to believe that economic growth should be assessed in the longer term when both cyclical and seasonal effects on GDP have been smoothened. Analysis of quarterly GDP growth, they would argue, mixes up the role of seasonal, cyclical and trend factors. The traditional theory of economic growth concentrates exclusively on the long term and emphasizes only trend factors. Such an analysis would invariably lead to what might be called the "paradox of growth".
Durgadas Roy was a professor of economics at the State University of New York and is now director, Indian Council for Economic Research, India.

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.
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Special Report
Jeremiah Greenspan
By Shawn Macomber
Published 2/27/2004 12:07:01 AM


Alan Greenspan touched the third rail of politics Wednesday -- he told the truth.

The Chairman of the Federal Reserve had been asked to speak to the House Budget Committee on Social Security and Medicare. And with his characteristic precision, Greenspan told legislators that they lacked "the resources to do it all." Minutes after the hearing ended, a bi-partisan coalition took to the airwaves to mock and belittle the Fed Chairman, while assuring the American people that the, yes, their government can and will "do it all."
Most depressingly, there was not a single well-publicized characterization of Greenspan's testimony that approached anything resembling honesty. (A transcript is available here) For all the bad acting it inspired, what Greenspan actually said was that "the enormous uncertainty" over the massive outlays Social Security and Medicare will soon require was a problem worthy of more than idle discussion.
"I believe that a thorough review of our spending commitments -- and at least some adjustment in those commitments -- is necessary for prudent policy," Greenspan said. This might seem a bit glib considering the topic, but Greenspan is well known as a forward thinker. He's not the kind of man to sit around and wait for the storm to gather and then play crisis control. That's a job for our elected representatives.
THE SITUATION IS DIRE, however. According to a study by the Cato Institute, Social Security is not only the largest U.S. government program, accounting for 23 percent of total federal spending, it is "the largest government program in the world." And within 15 years, Social Security will begin to spend more on benefits than it takes in. In his testimony Greenspan recommended taking steps to solve this problem.
The facts are on his side: From 1935 until 1950, Social Security absorbed only 2 percent of a worker's net income (one percent from the employee, one percent from the employer). Today it is 15.3 percent (7.65 percent employee, 7.65 percent employer). Greenspan pointed out that we now have three workers supporting each retiree on Social Security. By 2025 that will be reduced to just over two workers for each retiree. We face an unprecedented deficit and the looming retirement of 77 million health-nut baby boomers.
Greenspan said what needed to be said. Either the retirement age has to go up or Congress will have to find a way to lower yearly increases in benefits. But the Fed Chairman was hardly callous in his recommendations. "I also believe that we have an obligation to those in and near retirement to honor what has been promised to them," he explained. Changes should be implemented "soon enough so that future retirees have time to adjust their plans for retirement spending and to make sure that their personal resources, along with what they expect to receive from the government, will be sufficient to meet their retirement needs."
IT WAS HARDLY let-them-eat-cake material, but Greenspan's testimony was greeted as "outrageous, insipid, preposterous" by Sen. Arlen Specter, who declared the Greenspan plan "the worst idea I ever heard of." Rep. Pat Toomey, Specter's conservative challenger in the upcoming Pennsylvania Republican primary, admitted there was an entitlement problem, but still protested: "This is exactly the road I don't want to go down and won't support."
Sen. John Kerry called for a tax increase to stave off Social Security cuts. Terry McAuliffe, determined not to be out-lied or out-spun, made up his own version of the testimony: "President Bush paints a rosy picture of the economy, but Alan Greenspan's warning today couldn't have been clearer -- President Bush's economic policies have been a disaster," he said. So bad, in fact, that "the Federal Reserve Chairman has recommended severe cuts to Social Security or raising taxes." Predictably, William Novelli, head of the AARP terrorist group, said trimming benefits "would be unfair to boomers and younger workers, pulling the rug out from under their retirement security."
Perhaps most laughable of all the attacks came from Sen. John "two Americas" Edwards who was "outraged" that the financial guru would suggest "that we should extend George Bush's tax cuts on unearned wealth while cutting Social Security benefits that working people earn." Just raise taxes and -- poof! -- the problem goes away.
A few hours later Edwards released his inspiring but vague plan to "raise 10 million people out of poverty" to some fanfare. "When did it become acceptable to dismiss our challenges as just the way things are?" Edwards asked supporters. "When did it become acceptable to ignore our toughest problems because they would take decades and decades to solve? When did 'it's just too hard to do' become an excuse?"
When, indeed, John? I think it was right about the time Alan Greenspan finished up his testimony and handed the Congressional asylum back to the inmates.
Shawn Macomber is a reporter for The American Spectator. When not on the campaign trail, he runs the website Return of the Primitive.


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Clinton's Midnight Madness vs. the Bush Administration
Lieberman Op-Ed in Tech Central Station
by Ben Lieberman
February 24, 2004
Remember all those "midnight regulations" finalized by outgoing Clinton administration officials during their final two months in power? The Bush administration would prefer you forget, as its efforts to deal with them have proven to be failures.
To its credit, the incoming Bush officials, faced with a wave of these politically correct but substantively problematic environmental regulations, sought to double check their merits before allowing them to take effect. As a result, they were hit with nasty attacks from journalists and environmental activists. The furor over these so-called "environmental rollbacks" frequently dominated the news in 2001 prior to 9/11.
The double standard was obvious, as most of the criticism came from individuals and organizations that had given Clinton a free pass for doing next to nothing on these matters until the very end of his eight year run.
The first midnight regulation to hit the fan was the one setting a tougher standard for allowable levels of arsenic in drinking water. The media, most of whom had shown absolutely no interest in the subject from 1993 through 2000, suddenly couldn't get enough of the claims from groups like the Natural Resources Defense Council that Bush was allowing children to be poisoned with bad water. The New York Times made arsenic the first of its many factually dubious crusades against the Bush environmental record.
In truth, there were plenty of reasons to believe the existing standard was sufficiently protective of public health and that the new standard would impose a punishing economic burden on many rural water systems and their customers. Nonetheless, stung by the criticism and unable to get its own arguments across, the administration eventually backed off and declined to alter the new standard.
Bush did go ahead and change other last minute Clinton rules, including a new energy efficiency standard for central air-conditioners and a snowmobile ban in Yellowstone Park. But these and other rule changes, in addition to getting mostly negative media coverage, have been challenged on legal grounds. So far, the federal courts have handed the administration several setbacks.
The Department of Energy (DOE) rule on air-conditioners, one of the very last under Clinton, called for a 30 percent energy efficiency increase over the existing standard. The Clinton DOE's original proposal called for a less stringent 20 percent increase, in part because the agency's own analysis found that the tougher 30 percent standard would raise the cost of air-conditioners more than many consumers would earn back in the form of energy savings. But on its final day, the Clinton DOE went with the 30 percent increase.
The incoming Bush administration reviewed the rule and decided to move the standard back to 20 percent. However, this change was rejected last month by the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit. The court essentially concluded that the Clinton rule, once promulgated, was final and not subject to further modification. A separate legal challenge to reinstate the Bush rule is currently pending, so the issue is not yet over. But for now, it looks like another win for the Clinton regulators.
Bush's repeal of the Yellowstone snowmobile ban is also in legal limbo. As with many other midnight regulations, the Clinton administration demanded far more of its successor than it did of itself. In fact, Clinton did not set even modest snowmobile use restrictions on his watch, though he was more than happy to saddle the incoming Bush team with a total ban, to take effect in 2003.
Faced with angry Yellowstone Park visitors and snowmobile industry opposition, the Bush administration opted for a different approach. It set the first-ever emissions standards for snowmobiles, and then it modified Clinton's Yellowstone rule to allow limited use of these cleaner, new snowmobiles, but no out-and-out ban.
Green groups challenged these changes, and last December a federal district court shot them down, holding that the Bush administration had not sufficiently justified them. Appeals are ongoing and the ban has been delayed, but again it looks like Clinton will prevail.
Overall, Bush has lost many more midnight regulation battles than he has won. The adverse consequences of these problematic Clinton regulations--higher water bills, costlier air-conditioners, less fun for Yellowstone visitors--will probably get blamed on the current administration, though in truth it did at least try to get out of the trap set for it by the Clinton administration.

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Corruption probe into French union fund
By Robert Graham in Paris
Published: February 27 2004 4:00 | Last Updated: February 27 2004 4:00
The richest fund for social and cultural activities run by France's trades unions and belonging to Electricit? de France and Gaz de France, the giant electricity and gas utilities, is under investigation for alleged corrupt activities.
The investigation by Paris judicial authorities follows complaints of misuse of funds handled by this institution, the bastion of the CGT, the largest of the country's three main trades union confederations.
The move comes at a time when the centre-right government of Jean-Pierre Raffarin is anxious to break the CGT's stranglehold on the evolution of these two giant utilities as France needs to adapt to EU energy liberalisation directives.
The biggest break on changing these utilities current statutes to pave the way for partial privatisation is the resistance to change from the CGT, the controlling trades union in these bodies.
However, political analysts believe any step by the government to use the investigation against the CGT could harden union attitudes against any change to the EdF and Gaz de France statutes.
Partial privatisation has been constantly postponed since Mr Raffarin's government took office in June 2002 and is now scheduled for 2005 at the earliest.
The fund under investigation has an annual budget of around ?400m (?266.5m). This is largely financed by an obligatory contribution of 1 per cent of annual electricity and gas sales.
In tandem with this investigation, the public accounts commission is looking at the activities of the fund which employs 3,700 full-time union members and an even larger number of part-time staff.
The main purpose of the fund was to help present and former employees and provide facilities such as holiday camps. But over the years it has built up an extensive property folio, become responsible for the running of the EdF and Gaz de France canteens, while also being a big sponsor of national and local cultural events.
The investigation stems from a complaint from a former EdF employee, who alleged the fund was directly and indirectly financing activities that had no connection with its proper role.
The allegations include the creation of fake jobs, over-invoicing on service contracts and illicit involvement in external catering activity.

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Une information judiciaire a ?t? ouverte contre le comit? d'entreprise d'EDF-GDF
LE MONDE | 26.02.04 | 14h24
La Caisse centrale d'activit?s sociales, g?r?e par la CGT, est suspect?e d'abus de confiance et d'escroquerie. Son ancien pr?sident se retranche derri?re le contr?le de l'entreprise et de l'Etat.
Une information judiciaire dirig?e contre le comit? d'entreprise d'EDF-GDF, le plus riche de France, a ?t? ouverte, jeudi 19 f?vrier, pour "abus de confiance, escroquerie, faux et usage de faux, complicit? et recel" par le parquet de Paris.
Jean-Marie d'Huy, juge du p?le financier du tribunal de grande instance, qui avait d?j? instruit, en 1997, les surfacturations d'Alcatel-CIT aux d?pens de France T?l?com, va enqu?ter sur des malversations financi?res pr?sum?es au sein de la Caisse centrale d'activit?s sociales (CCAS) d'EDF-GDF, g?r?e de tout temps par la CGT, majoritaire.
Une structure qui brasse pr?s de 400 millions d'euros, emploie 3 700 salari?s permanents et 6 000 saisonniers, dispose d'un parc immobilier consid?rable, g?re la restauration des cantines et revendique la place de premier producteur de spectacles de France.
Cette instruction fait suite ? une enqu?te pr?liminaire ordonn?e ? la mi-2003 au parquet de Bobigny (Seine-Saint-Denis), apr?s le d?p?t d'une plainte d'un ancien salari? d'EDF, fin mai 2003. D'autres avaient suivi. Selon Victor Fremaux, un cadre retrait? d'EDF, "la CCAS finance directement ou indirectement des activit?s sans aucun rapport avec sa mission". Le plaignant fait notamment ?tat d'emplois fictifs, de prestations surfactur?es de fournitures et de services, comme des locations de voitures, et de prestations de restauration pour des organisations tierces. Le dossier avait ensuite ?t? transf?r? en octobre 2003 au parquet de Paris.
Outre la justice, la Cour des comptes a ?galement d?cid? de se pencher sur le fonctionnement de cet organisme hors normes, dont certaines d?rives avaient, ? l'origine ?t? d?nonc?es par son ancien directeur g?n?ral, Jean-Claude Laroche, aussit?t suspendu de ses fonctions. Dans un courrier au conseil d'administration, ce dernier avait attir? l'attention sur des "irr?gularit?s lourdes" et des "dysfonctionnements" de gestion. Elles ont aliment? une partie des plaintes en cours sur certaines op?rations jug?es "suspectes".
Parmi celles-l?, la signature d'un contrat de location de voitures avec une soci?t? de Montreuil, dirig?e par un proche du Parti communiste, comme celle d'un contrat d'extincteurs. Financ?e par la CCAS, la promotion d'un compact-disc du groupe Sergent Garcia contre la guerre en Irak, encart? ? 77 000 exemplaires dans le quotidien du PCF, L'Humanit?, avait ?galement aliment? les soup?ons.
"R?GLEMENTS DE COMPTES"
R?futant en bloc ces diverses accusations, Jean Lavielle, ancien pr?sident du conseil d'administration de la CCAS, remplac? par Evelyne Valentin, par ailleurs conseill?re r?gionale communiste d'Auvergne, avait d?nonc? dans Le Mondedu 24 octobre 2003 une campagne de "r?glements de comptes ou de ranc?urs personnelles". Il s'interrogeait : "Est-ce vraiment un hasard qu'au moment o? l'on attaque frontalement le service public, on attaque dans le m?me temps le comit? d'entreprise qui repr?sente le monde du travail ?" Il se retranchait aussi derri?re le contr?le exerc? par la direction de l'entreprise publique et l'Etat, pour r?pondre aux accusations.
La m?fiance s'est toutefois install?e au sein de l'organisme aujourd'hui dirig? par Olivier Frachon, ancien responsable ? la F?d?ration CGT des mines et de l'?nergie, et petit-fils de Beno?t Frachon, ancien dirigeant de la Conf?d?ration. Le 26 novembre 2003, les administrateurs des deux syndicats de la CFDT et de la CGC ont refus? d'approuver le bilan financier. R?cemment encore, ils ont interpell? les dirigeants de la CCAS sur le financement des prestations de restauration assur?e par une filiale la CCAS lors du congr?s des cadres UFICT-CGT ? Tours.
R?uni le 19 f?vrier, le bureau du conseil d'administration n'a pas ?t? saisi de l'ouverture, le jour m?me, de l'information judiciaire. Les responsables CGT ont indiqu? avoir tardivement d?couvert l'information sur cette proc?dure. Jeudi, dans un communiqu?, la FNME-CGT devait renouveler sa demande de "transparence", en rappelant qu'elle avait demand? l'intervention de la Cour des comptes. Une exigence ?galement formul?e par le syndicat CFDT qui, jeudi, annonce son intention de se porter partie civile afin "d'avoir acc?s au dossier et ainsi faire valoir les int?r?ts des agents actifs et inactifs des Industries ?lectriques et gazi?res".


Ariane Chemin et Michel Delberghe

* ARTICLE PARU DANS L'EDITION DU 27.02.04

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D?mission de Richard Perle, conseiller du Pentagone connu pour ses positions dures sur l'Irak
AP | 26.02.04 | 21:36
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Richard Perle, un conseiller du Pentagone connu pour ses positions bellicistes sur l'Irak, a d?missionn? de son poste au Conseil pour la politique de d?fense.
Dans sa lettre de d?mission remise au secr?taire ? la D?fense Donald Rumsfeld, dat?e du 18 f?vrier et rendu publique jeudi, M. Perle dit quitter son poste parce qu'il ne veut pas que ses vues controvers?es soient ?attribu?es ? vous ou au pr?sident, et particuli?rement pas pendant une campagne pr?sidentielle?.
Sa d?mission intervient alors qu'il vient de publier un livre dans lequel il pr?ne une action forte pour combattre le terrorisme. ?Beaucoup des id?es dans ce livre sont controvers?es et je veux ?tre libre de les d?fendre sans que cela soit repris dans la campagne?. AP
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The Human Rights of Israelis
What the International Court of Justice has not been asked.
By Anne Bayefsky
The International Court of Justice in the Hague is being asked by the U.N. General Assembly to provide advice on the "legal consequences" of Israel's security fence. Predating the request for such advice, was a November report from U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan detailing the harm done to Palestinians said to result from the fence and a December 2003 General Assembly resolution already deciding that the fence violates international law. The question before the court has therefore been carefully crafted to elicit a list of negative human-rights consequences for Palestinians.
One element, however, is missing: the human rights of Israelis. Secretary General Annan's report does not describe a single terrorist act against Israelis. The same 2003 General Assembly which decried the fence was also marked by its refusal to adopt a resolution on the rights of Israeli children -- after passing one on Palestinian children.
The U.N. message is clear -- the human rights of Israelis are not part of the equation. If they were, the legal balancing act would be this: On the one hand, suicide-bombing violates the following rights and freedoms of Israelis -- all derived from international human rights treaties ratified by Israel: the right to life, the right not to be subjected to torture, inhuman or degrading treatment, the right to equality and freedom from persecution, security of the person, the right to health and well-being, the right to safe working conditions, the right to work, freedom from incitement to violence or war, freedom of religion, the right to the protection of the family, the right to the protection of the child, the right to education, freedom of movement, the right to vote, freedom of association, the right to an adequate standard of living and the right of self-determination.
Suicide bombings (along with other terrorist acts) target Israelis at work, at play, at worship, and in transit, anywhere, anytime. They have been hit in synagogues, at bar mitzvahs, at Passover seders, moving from home to work or to school, while voting, gathering with friends in public places, in restaurants, cafes, and discotheques, in their homes and in their bedrooms. They kill and maim children and adults, women and men. They destroy health and any chance for happiness or well-being.
The violation of human rights by suicide bombing, starting with the right to life, falls within the category of the gravest human-rights violations in international law: It is a crime against humanity -- according to the definitions in the Charter of the Nuremberg Tribunal and the Statute of the International Criminal Court, as well as reports of organizations such as Amnesty International. The major human-rights instruments also render it an attempt at genocide or "the commission of acts with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group."
The violation of the right to life by suicide bombing fits one other label of modern times -- ethnic cleansing, or the systematic removal of a group of people identified by ethnicity from a certain area through killing or forced migration. Suicide-bombing kills some Israelis, encourages others to leave the country, and discourages Jews from visiting or immigrating. The specific intent is to ethnically cleanse the area of Jews, a fact which has already been accomplished in all other neighboring Arab states, and most other Arab and Muslim countries.
So on the one hand, Israelis are subject to crimes against humanity, attempted genocide, and an effort to accomplish ethnic cleansing. International treaties demand that Israel protect the human rights of its citizens, just as the government of any country would be expected to protect its citizens from the most grievous offences known to humankind.
What about the other hand -- the rights of Palestinians? Suicide-bombing also violates the rights of Palestinians. It violates the right of Palestinian children not to take part in hostilities. Palestinian children having been used as suicide bombers and armed combatants, their right to enjoy the highest attainable standard of physical and mental health, and their entitlement to the protection and care necessary for their well-being, have also been violated. The Convention on the Rights of the Child says "the education of the child shall be directed to ...the development of respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms...[and] for civilizations different from his or her own.., [and] for responsible life in a free society, in the spirit of understanding, peace, tolerance... among all peoples, ethnic, national and religious groups". The right of the Palestinian child to an education which promotes tolerance and respect is violated by Palestinian media, schools, textbooks, posters, and summer camps -- all of which routinely encourage Palestinian children to hate, and to harm their neighbors.
Palestinians have other rights which have been limited or infringed, like the right to work and freedom of movement. These rights are limited or infringed, however, not by Israel's fence, but by the terrorists who live and operate among them. If an armed robber takes a hostage and in the course of the crime the hostage is killed by police, the law states that the death of the hostage has been caused by the robber, not the police. For if there was no armed robbery, the hostage would not have been harmed. If there were no terrorism, there would be no fence -- and no "consequences of the fence" as the International Court has been asked to state in isolation from the acts that preceded it. The Palestinian civilian population is hostage to the terrorists and suicide-bombers among them. Israel's actions, like those of the police officer, are taken in fulfillment of its legal responsibilities to protect and end violent and illegal behavior.
The language of human rights is one of the most powerful political currencies of our times. That is why terrorists attempt to use it to their own ends, and claim victimhood for violations for which they are responsible. The International Court of Justice is at a crucial juncture in its history: to become another weapon in the terrorists' arsenal or to reject the gross abuse of the rule of law and the attempt to deny the equal value of the human rights of Israelis.

-- Anne Bayefsky is an adjunct professor of law at Columbia Law School. A version of this appeared in the Jerusalem Post and is reprinted with permission.
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VERGEWALTIGUNGEN IM IRAK
Sex-Skandal ersch?ttert US-Army
Der wohl gr??te Missbrauchsskandal ihrer Geschichte ersch?ttert die US-Armee. In den letzten 18 Monaten wurden in Irak, Kuweit und Afghanistan 112 F?lle von sexuellen ?bergriffen auf Soldatinnen gemeldet. Den Einsatzkr?ften komme fern der Heimat der Sinn f?r Recht und Gesetz abhanden, so Politiker und Anw?lte.
Washington - Von den 112 F?llen wurden 86 aus dem Bereich der Armee gemeldet, zw?lf aus der Marine und acht bei der Luftwaffe, berichtet die US-Tageszeitung "New York Times". Sechs F?lle registrierte das Marine Corps. Aus Milit?rkreisen hie? es, ein Gro?teil der F?lle werde untersucht, teilweise seien bereits disziplinarische Ma?nahmen eingeleitet worden.
Die Anzeigen der Soldatinnen beziehen sich nicht nur auf die Vergewaltigungen und sexuellen ?bergriffe selbst: Nach dem Missbrauch erhielten sie unzureichende medizinische Hilfe, die Vorf?lle w?rden ungen?gend untersucht, berichtete eine Anw?ltin der Opfer, Christine Hansen. "Am meisten f?rchten sie aber Racheaktionen von Kollegen", so Hansen. "Wer petzt, ist noch viel schlimmer dran."
Nach Ansicht von Senatoren und der Anw?ltin ist es kein Zufall, dass sich der Missbrauch gerade da ereignet, wo ?rzte und Polizei nicht schnell zu erreichen sind. "Die T?ter f?hlen sich sicher, deshalb fehlt ihnen jeglicher Gerechtigkeitssinn", so Hansen.
In der amerikanischen Presse wird bereits vom gr??ten Milit?r-Sexskandal der Geschichte gesprochen. Die Anschuldigungen ?bertr?fen sogar die so genannten "Tailhook"- und "Drill-Sergeant"-Skandale, die Anfang der neunziger Jahre f?r Aufsehen sorgten.
1991 war die US-Navy in die Schlagzeilen geraten, nachdem bekannt wurde, dass Marineflieger bei den j?hrlichen Treffen der "Tailhook"-Vereinigung unter den Augen ihrer Gener?le abwechselnd Pornos anschauten und Soldatinnen in "Spie?rutenl?ufen" die Kleider vom Leib rissen. Beim zweiten Skandal f?nf Jahre sp?ter wurden mehrere Ausbilder wegen Vergewaltigung und Missbrauch ihrer Soldatinnen angeklagt. Das Gericht sprach alle Sergeants schuldig, die H?chststrafe lag damals bei 25 Jahren Gef?ngnis.
"Ungeheuerliche Gewalt in den eigenen Reihen"
Verteidigungsminister Donald Rumsfeld versprach eine schnelle Aufkl?rung der Aff?re. Ein von ihm eingesetzter Untersuchungsausschuss soll die Umst?nde der sexuellen ?bergriffe kl?ren und au?erdem der Frage nachgehen, wie die Armee mit Opfern sexueller Gewalt umgeht. Bei einer Anh?rung vor dem Senat mussten gestern bereits mehrere Vier-Sterne-Gener?le und F?hrungskr?fte aus dem Pentagon zu den schweren Vorw?rfen Stellung nehmen.
Vor allem weibliche Abgeordnete zeigten sich w?hrend der Anh?rung entsetzt. "Im Krieg gibt es immer Verluste", sagte die republikanische Senatorin Susan Collins. "Aber normalerweise werden die vom Feind verursacht und kommen nicht von unvorstellbarer Gewalt aus den eigenen Reihen."
Der demokratische Senator Ben Nelson ?u?erte die Bef?rchtung, dass das Problem im Pentagon nicht ernst genug genommen w?rde. "Ich kann bei der milit?rischen F?hrung keine angemessene Emp?rung erkennen", so Nelson.
Ein Milit?rsprecher versicherte jedoch, die F?lle w?rden mit der n?tigen Aufmerksamkeit untersucht. Sp?testens am 30. April muss das Pentagon seinen Untersuchungsbericht der ?ffentlichkeit vorstellen.

Julia Maria B?nisch
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WORLD POLICY JOURNAL

ARTICLE: Volume XX, No 4, Winter 2003/04 Print
Friendly
The Russian Roller Coaster
Ian Bremmer*

As 2003 ended, many Russia watchers shared an uneasy, we've-been-here-before feeling. Hard on the heels of the sudden arrest in late October of Mikhail Khodorkovsky-- the country's wealthiest businessman and the chairman of Yukos Oil, until he stepped down--came a flawed parliamentary election and an angry nationalist outcry over real or imagined American meddling in neighboring Georgia's "velvet revolution." Hence the credible worry that Russia is no longer safe for international investors and, more broadly, that xenophobic nationalism could poison hopes for an evolving democratic system based on the rule of law.

At the core of these concerns lies the still ambiguous figure of President Vladimir Putin. Is he persevering on the democratic path, as he claims, or, given his service as a KGB officer, is he returning Russia to its familiar autocratic fold? If the latter is the case, what will it mean for Russian relations with the West? Can Russia become a trusted ally and partner, or will it retreat into an ultimately self-defeating nationalism born of misdirected patriotism and the illusion of self-sufficiency bolstered by a wealth of raw materials and an undervalued currency?

My own view, notwithstanding these considerations and looking beyond the headlines generated by the Khodorkovsky affair, is that, for now at least, pessimism is premature. The aim of this essay is to recall the volatility of Western opinion about Russia, to weigh the pros and cons of Moscow's relations with the oligarchs, and to outline the three key tests for judging Putin's intentions.

Pessimism vs. Optimism
This is by no means the first time that the United States has had serious concerns about Russia. Indeed, ambivalence goes back to the height of the Cold War, when American public opinion was divided between those who wanted to engage the Soviet Union constructively and pursue d?tente, and those who believed that the USSR could never be anything but an "evil empire."

This ambivalence persisted even after 1991, when the Soviet Union ceased to exist and the Russian Federation became an independent state. To some observers, Russia seemed on the verge of becoming one of the world's largest free market democracies and thus a potential partner and ally. Others saw a Russia still mired in its pre-capitalist Soviet ways, a backward country that nonetheless retained the means to annihilate the world. With the benefit of hindsight, we can now judge that Russia was something of both. But at the time, a plausible case could have been made to justify either the highest hopes or the deepest fears of Western policy-makers. This roller-coaster approach has endured and characterizes the West's "on again, off again" love affair with Russia.

The pessimists were in the ascendancy during the first years of the newborn Russian Federation, as the country verged on political, economic, and cultural chaos. The privatizations of the early 1990s were in truth a sham. With the tacit approval of President Boris Yeltsin's government, Russia's robber barons grabbed the nation's patrimony, with the result that most Russians decided that if this was free market democracy, they wanted no part of it. In the aftermath of this "reallocation" of wealth to the new private sector, a tiny class of super rich, overwhelmingly corrupt individuals-- the so-called oligarchs--stripped the assets of state-owned companies, leaving ordinary Russians considerably worse off than they had been under Soviet rule. The nation fragmented as central authority slackened, provincial leaders filled the power vacuum, and a bloody and inconclusive war in Chechnya drained valuable resources while demoralizing the armed forces. The possibility of a plunge into full-scale anarchy seemed a very real possibility at the time.

But by the latter half of the 1990s, it appeared that the optimists might have been right to keep the faith. By 1998, Russia indeed seemed to be on the road to democracy and free markets. Investor confidence was high. However, that August, with little warning, the inexperienced prime minister, Sergei Kiriyenko, devalued the ruble and announced that Russia would no longer meet its obligations to foreign bond-holders. A fresh Russian crisis materialized, and the ensuing mayhem pushed global financial markets to the brink of collapse.

The roller coaster plunged again toward pessimism. By the end of the Clinton administration, there was an animated foreign policy debate over "who lost Russia." While the the pundits pointed the finger of blame at everyone from President Boris Yeltsin to Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, from the bureaucrats at the International Monetary Fund to the Russian robber barons and Harvard University professor Jeffrey Sachs, one thing was clear: virtually everyone agreed with the premise that Russia had indeed been lost.

On reflection, that pessimism was premature. Russia's by then chronically absentee President Yeltsin orchestrated a surprisingly smooth transition in 2000 to a relative unknown, Vladimir Putin, with as little bloodshed as the final Soviet handover of power to Yeltsin by Mikhail Gorbachev. Equally important, the economy rebounded impressively, due partly to the devaluation of the ruble and partly to high oil and other commodity prices. The war in Chechnya remained a major thorn in Putin's side, but the president's popularity soared on the strength of his hard line toward the Chechen rebels. Russia didn't seem to be in such bad shape after all.

Putin vs. The Oligarchs
Investors gradually recovered their confidence and have returned to the markets. Putin, viewed as a steady hand on the tiller, was an important factor in persuading investors that Russia might again be worthy of their trust. Indeed, Russian bond and equity markets have proved to be among the world's best performers over the past few years. Last October, the Moody's rating agency acknowledged the turnaround by giving Russia an investment-grade rating-- allowing it to attract a new class of portfolio investors. There was renewed talk of foreign direct investment in the country, as bankers once more filled business-class seats on flights to Moscow and financial institutions began hunting for office space. With his strong domestic hand, and a percolating economy bolstering his standing, Putin became one of the most popular elected leaders in the world, with approval ratings consistently over 70 percent.

What the investment bankers and investors who were lauding Putin's strength as a leader failed to grasp, however, was that in consolidating power in a country with little history of anything other than autocracy, Putin would drag his feet when it came to political reform. For better or worse, democracy is on hold in Russia. In contrast to Mikhail Gorbachev, who embarked simultaneously on political and economic reforms and, by so doing, fatally weakened his capacity to punish and reward recalcitrants,.Putin appears determined to pursue economic growth through a host of landmark legislative acts--tax, judicial, and land reform among them--while holding tightly to the reins of government.

Many financial analysts and investors mistakenly believed that the absence of political reform was at the root of the crisis of 1998. But it was a lack of central authority-- not the lack of democracy--that was the problem. When Putin was elected to the presidency, economic policy was effectively created and implemented by various provincial governors and businessmen-- all a law unto themselves. Putin correctly understood that rebuilding central authority and consolidating the Russian state had to be his priorities. And that meant, above all, finding some workable accommodation with the oligarchs.

When Putin took office, he struck a Faustian bargain with the oligarchs who had deeply embedded themselves in the policy-making process in the final years of Yeltsin's rule. According to an unwritten but clearly understood deal, the oligarchs would be permitted to keep their ill-gotten gains so long as they paid their taxes and forswore grand political ambitions. The latter was harder to police, but the more obvious strictures were that the oligarchs refrain from using their influence in the Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament, or in the executive branch to make policy and from using the media they controlled to criticize the government.


Drawing by Curtiss Calleo
While the requirement that the oligarchs stay out of politics was clear enough, it was not rigorously policed. However, when two of the original oligarchs, Boris Berezovsky and Vladimir Gusinsky, used their television stations to broadcast criticism of the Kremlin, they found themselves under criminal prosecution in 2001 for money laundering and other charges. Both eventually fled the country, and their media holdings were stripped of their oppositionist character, effectively becoming cheerleaders for the Kremlin.

However, other channels of political influence remained open to the remaining oligarchs--a group of some dozen men who, among them, control roughly 70 percent of the Russian economy. Putin had retained Aleksandr Voloshin, Yeltsin's capable and savvy chief of staff. It was Voloshin who pushed through Putin's economic reforms and was the point man for dealing with the Bush administration. At the same time, he served as the intermediary within the Kremlin between Putin and "the Family," holdovers from the Yeltsin era with close ties to the business elite. With Voloshin as Putin's right-hand man, the oligarchs continued to have a voice in the corridors of power.

Moreover, the Duma had evolved from a rubber stamp for the Kremlin into a more independent legislative body. The oligarchs quickly adapted to the new situation, becoming sophisticated lobbyists and using their financial resources liberally and to marked effect. They exercised considerable influence, notably over tax legislation. Draft laws sent to the Duma by the Kremlin emerged at the end of the legislative process substantially amended, generally to the benefit of the oligarchs.

Putin may not have been happy with the oligarchs' continuing influence over economic policy, but he was more concerned with political challenges to his rule. After Berezovsky and Gusinsky fled into exile, there was just one billionaire who, in the Kremlin's view, continued to cross the line, refusing to observe the rules of the deal Putin believed he had made. This was Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the CEO of the oil giant, Yukos, and Russia's wealthiest man, with an estimated net worth of $8 billion.

The Khodorkovsky Affair
Khodorkovsky was enthusiastically feted in the West for his eloquence and sophistication, and his willingness to play by Western rules. The then 30-something Yukos chief, with his trademark Spartan wardrobe, emerged as a notable leader among Russian executives in aspiring to and often achieving Western-style standards of management, accounting, and corporate governance. Khodorkovsky also spent considerable sums on public relations, charitable endeavors, and lobbying, both at home and in the United States. Even so, he remained unpopular in Russia, as the memory of how he had acquired his wealth--using his political connections to purchase some of Russia's choicest oil assets at fire-sale prices-- lingered in the public consciousness.

Early in Putin's presidency, Khodorkovsky managed to cultivate cordial relations with Russia's new president and was a frequent visitor to the Kremlin. Khodorkovsky even began to be mentioned as a potential future prime minister (although this story may have been confected by Khodorkovsky's media machine). But over time, and particularly as the Russian political class began to focus on the December 2003 Duma elections, while other oligarchs worked quietly backstage to ensure that their interests would continue to be represented in the new Duma, Khodorkovsky changed tack. He began to provide generous funding--directly and indirectly--for most or all of the parties likely to feature in the next Duma, particularly the two more liberal reformist, pro-market parties, Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces.

Khodorkovsky's political activities now exceeded normal business lobbying and, to many observers, it seemed obvious that he was trying to build a foundation of support in the Duma with an eye toward a future in politics. Meanwhile, rumors began to circulate that Khodorkovsky was positioning himself to run for president in 2008, when, under the term limits established by Russia's constitution, Putin would have to leave office.

To Putin, this amounted to a clear challenge to his authority. Moreover, Khodorkovsky began to antagonize the president on a personal level, directly challenging his authority on a broad range of issues and even showing up at the Kremlin in casual attire for a meeting with the very formal Putin. Last July, the Kremlin loosed a clear warning shot by arresting his business partner, Platon Lebedev, on charges of fraud and tax evasion. Khodorkovsky himself was brought in for questioning. Perhaps persuaded that his position as CEO of Yukos and the strong international support he enjoyed offered him special protection, Khodorkovsky, instead of heeding that not-so-subtle hint, stepped up his political activities. Putin appears to have spent little time agonizing over an appropriate response. He evidently felt he needed to make an example of Khodorkovsky to reassert his authority, and on October 25, armed agents intercepted the Yukos chief at a Siberian airport and brought him back to Moscow in handcuffs.

Putin knew that Khodorkovsky's arrest on fraud, tax-evasion, and other charges, and its aftermath--the freezing of Khodorkovsky's equity stake in Yukos and the subsequent resignation of Chief of Staff Voloshin-- would shake international confidence and threaten Russia's two-year-long stock market boom. The Kremlin therefore immediately sought to limit the damage. Publicly and privately in his meetings with foreign and Russian bankers, Putin emphasized that the arrest was about the actions of one individual and not the start of a crusade against Russia's business interests.

In the wake of Voloshin's departure, many expected that the shadowy siloviki faction within the Kremlin--officials with backgrounds in law enforcement or in the KGB--would have the upper hand. Instead, Putin promoted two liberal-minded technocrats from St. Petersburg, Dmitri Med-vedev and Dmitri Kozak, to the top two positions on his staff, a clear signal to Russia's oligarchs, and to the West, that they could expect business to go on as usual. Medvedev wasted no time in acting on his mandate to calm the tense political situation, immediately issuing a statement criticizing the general prosecutor's office for being overzealous in its campaign against Khodorkovsky.

Thus far, Putin's efforts to restore investor confidence in the markets have met with only limited success. His assertion that the action against Khodorkovsky will not spill over into a broader campaign against private business has been largely accepted. But the incident has increased worries that the Russian reform process will turn sour. Not surprisingly, the Russian equity market, where Yukos Oil plays a major role, drifted into the doldrums in December, trading in a range of 15-20 percent below its peak prior to Khodorkovsky's arrest.

Within a week of his arrest, Khodorkovsky resigned as the CEO of Yukos, although he remains its main shareholder. He had already been planning for the succession at Yukos by appointing Simon Kukes chairman of the board. Kukes, Russian-born and a chemist by training, had become an American citizen after emigrating from Russia in the late 1970s. His r?sum? includes stints at Phillips Petroleum and Amoco as well as the Russian Tyumen Oil Company, or TNK, where he served as president from 1998 to 2003. At TNK, Kukes transformed an initially antagonistic relationship with British Petroleum into a landmark joint venture agreement announced in February 2003 that created Russia's first Western-Russian partnership, TNK-BP. Stepping aside from TNK after the merger, Kukes was approached by Khodorkovsky to join the Yukos board as his heir apparent. The leadership handoff came earlier than either expected.

With Kukes now at the helm of Yukos, the company may resume business as usual in early 2004. But in the short run, with Khodorkovsky's 39.5 percent of Yukos shares frozen by the government and the case against him still unresolved, any major equity deals with foreign companies (including ongoing discussions with Chevron-Texaco and ExxonMobil) are out of the question; even the merger with Sibneft, a nearly completed deal that would have created the world's fourth largest oil company, looks all but dead at the time of this writing.

With the uncertainty surrounding Khodorkovsky and Yukos front-page news, it is important to weigh fundamentals. And, in fact, not that much has changed. Russia remains the world's largest energy producer. Its economy is sound and its currency reserves are still growing. The all-important U.S.-Russia relationship--based on common interests with respect to security and counterterrorism--is strong. Russia's relations with the European Union and most of its neighbors are also good. Even in the neighboring Caucasus and Central Asia, where recent and pending leadership transitions raise fears that Moscow will stir up discontent to maintain a firm grip, the Kremlin's response has been one of restraint. All things considered, Russia still looks considerably more stable than worried international investors and volatile stock market prices would have us believe.

Putin and the Challenges Russia Faces
For the time being, President Putin is well positioned to contain the damaging fallout from the Khodorkovsky affair. Yet, as one hears in Moscow, there are other, more problematic, issues that could undermine Russian stability.

The first is the war in Chechnya. Beginning in 1994, Russia's military efforts to prevent the breakaway province from establishing its sovereignty have been a brutal and bloody affair. Tens of thousands of civilian casualties have resulted, and the war has generated significant terrorist activity in the North Caucasus, and throughout Russia. There are no prospects of meaningful negotiations between Moscow and Chechen representatives.

Chechen alienation from the Russian government is near complete, and the rebels' capacity to disrupt the Russian state is increasing. Chechen militants are responsible for the only known incident of radiological terror against a civilian population, having buried high-isotope cesium in Moscow's Ismailovsky Park in November 1995, with the intention of displaying to the Russian government the type of attack it should prepare for if their demands were not met. Russia has the world's largest concentration of unaccounted for radiological materials in its stockpiles, which could be put to use in explosive devices, and the Chechen resistance is becoming more and more technologically sophisticated. A successful "dirty bomb" attack in a major Russian city is an increasingly credible threat, and while this might not lead to significant casualties, the psychological and economic consequences would be immediate and devastating.

Moscow needs to address the Chechen issue, and a meaningful start could be made by instigating a widespread purge of Russian security forces in Chechnya to mitigate the worst human rights offenses being perpetrated there. While it is impossible to imagine any near-term negotiation that would satisfy both sides, efforts to build trust through improving the security and livelihood of Chechens would be a stabilizing first step. Beyond that, Moscow could benefit from coordinating its efforts more closely with the international community. Russia's willingness to cooperate with the United States in tracking down terrorists in Georgia's Pankisi Gorge is a welcome move, but it reflects only cooperation on the ground and falls far short of a meaningful solution to the problem.

The second issue is the brewing antagonism between China and Russia over influence in Siberia. Russia maintains complete political control over the resource-rich, India-sized expanse of its Far East and Siberia, but the economic balance is increasingly, and rapidly, tilting toward China. Indeed, local Russian leaders estimate that ethnic Chinese control nearly half of the Siberian economy. The demographic trends are striking: there are roughly 18 million Russians in Siberia, compared to over a quarter billion Chinese just across the border in China's northern provinces. And the internal balance is shifting, with Russians leaving the already sparsely populated region and (the largely illegal) Chinese migrants arriving in droves. The potential for interethnic violence is thus sure to grow. Local Russo-Chinese relations are increasingly dominating Siberia's elections and are likely to evolve into an issue that must be addressed directly by the Kremlin.

Not only is China exerting increasing economic influence over Siberia, the strongest demand for Russian energy comes from China. The potential exists for a synergistic and mutually beneficial relationship between Russia and China, based on the energy resources of eastern Siberia. From Russia's point of view, this is a region with massive hydrocarbon potential, but one that is remote from potential markets. For China, importing hydrocarbons from eastern Siberia would have a clear strategic benefit, as they would be delivered via overland pipelines. This would reduce China's dependence on seaborne imports, which the Chinese military considers insecure. But there is a conflict brewing over Siberia--this being demonstrated by the way the Kremlin has danced around approval for a pipeline deal that would transport oil from Angarsk in eastern Siberia to refineries in the Chinese city of Daqing. Moscow is concerned about placing the future of Siberian energy exports in the hands of a single country. Instead, the government is considering a much longer pipeline, technically more difficult and more than twice as expensive to build, to the eastern port of Nakhodka, which would allow Russia to export to the global markets.

Putin must be willing to tackle the simmering conflict over Siberia head on with the Chinese government. He must also be ready to address these issues constructively, and at the highest levels, with local Russian leaders, rather than allowing them to take matters into their own hands, which will inexorably lead to deep political conflict.

Finally, the third, and potentially most destabilizing, issue facing Putin is democratic reform. What happens when Putin has consolidated power and carried out the many components of his economic reform package--when the controversial dislocations from energy reform are at an end and WTO accession is fully at hand? Will he then be willing to start spending some of his political capital in order to create a truly representative political system with legitimacy invested in durable democratic institutions rather than in the person of the president?

This is undoubtedly the key question. The important Russian presidential elections will not be those held this coming March, the results of which are a foregone conclusion, but those scheduled for 2008. According to the Russian constitution, Putin is not permitted to run for a third term. He has repeatedly and publicly said that he has no intention of standing for election a third time. But in 2008, the Russian president will be only 56 years old, a virtual sapling compared to his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin. Members of Putin's cabinet will no doubt be clamoring for him to stay on for reasons of self-interest. Large segments of the public may also wish him to do so.

Were Putin to subvert the constitution in an attempt to stay in power past 2008, it would be a disaster for Russia's democratic hopes. If Russia can maintain its economic growth for the next five years, and if President Putin has ended the threats to central state control from Russia's oligarchs and local leaders, there will be no reason for him to deny Russians the ability to make their own political and economic choices. At some point in a country's development, democracy and prosperity become mutually reinforcing and the absence of democracy becomes an obstacle to economic growth and popular well-being. Whether Putin will be able to act the democrat after close to a decade as a near autocrat remains an open question.

The Khodorkovsky affair has once again led many Western analysts and policymakers to adopt a pessimistic view of Russia. But if we have learned anything in the last decade, it is that this pessimism could dissipate surprisingly quickly. When it comes to Russia, the roller coaster of opinion has everything to do with perceptions of the moment and very little to do with underlying reality.

Much depends on Vladimir Putin. So far, he has handled his job well, or at least well enough. His commitment to economic reform has by and large been exemplary, and his commitment to political consolidation and reasserting central authority has not-- yet--assumed a dictatorial form. The Khodorkovsky affair is worrisome, but on balance, it still looks to be the exception to the rule.

Putin has four more years to show Russia and the world who he really is. He will face serious challenges--in Chechnya and in China--and the Russian economy will be hard-pressed to sustain the dramatic growth of recent years. But ultimately, the greatest threat to Putin's legacy remains Putin himself. If, in 2008, he does indeed step down, Russia and the world will breathe a sigh of relief and thank him for his leadership. If he does not, all his positive achievements may amount to little more than a prelude to authoritarian rule and decline.

--December 26, 2003

*Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group, a senior fellow at the World Policy Institute, and a columnist for the Financial Times.

Posted by maximpost at 5:55 PM EST
Permalink
Thursday, 26 February 2004

>> BUGGING KOFI...
http://www.theworld.org/latesteditions/20040226.shtml
UN History (6:00)
The discovery that the United States spied on the United Nations in the run up to the war seems shocking, but should it be? Host Marco Werman speaks with Burton Hersh, who writes about the history of spying in fiction and non-fiction.


A New Job for Kay
Let him investigate the U.N. Oil-for-Food scam.
BY CLAUDIA ROSETT
Wednesday, February 25, 2004 12:01 a.m. EST
When David Kay recovers from his weapons hunt, there's another Iraq-related quest I'd like to send him on. It's time a top intelligence team went scavenging for the real numbers on the United Nations' Oil-for-Food Program--that gigantic setup through which the U.N. from 1996 through 2003 supervised more than $100 billion worth of Saddam Hussein's selling of oil and buying of goods.
And, no, I am not talking about anything as exotic as the list of alleged bribe-takers from Saddam Hussein, published Jan. 25 by the Iraqi newspaper Al-Mada, and now under investigation. I speak simply about the U.N.-supplied numbers on Oil-for-Food's operations. Over the past 18 months, I have periodically tried to get these figures to add up. I am starting to believe the words of an unusually forthright U.N. spokesman, who at one point told me, "They won't."
Basic integrity in bookkeeping seems little enough to ask of the U.N., where officials defending Oil-for-Food have been insisting that it wasn't their fault if Saddam was corrupt. They just did the job of meticulously recording the deals now beset by graft allegations, approving the contracts, and making sure the necessary funds went in and out of the U.N.-held escrow accounts. I'm sure there was some sort of logic to it. Though I have begun to wonder if maybe the same way the U.N. has its own arrangements for postal services and tax-exempt salaries, U.N. accounting has its own special system of arithmetic.
It all added up fairly neatly, of course, in the summary offered by Secretary-General Kofi Annan, when the U.N. turned over the remnants of Oil-for-Food to the Coalition Provisional Authority in November. Oil-for-Food, said Mr. Annan, had presided over $65 billion worth of Saddam's oil sales and in buying relief supplies had used "some $46 billion of Iraqi export earnings on behalf of the Iraqi people." (Keep your eye on those numbers.) In doing so, the U.N. secretariat had collected a 2.2% commission on the oil, which, even after a portion was refunded for relief operations, netted out to more than $1 billion for U.N. administrative overhead. The U.N. also collected a 0.8% commission to pay for weapons inspections in Iraq--including when Saddam shut them out between 1998 and 2002--which comes to another $520 million or so.
The keen observer will see that this adds up to payouts of just under $48 billion from Saddam's Oil-for-Food proceeds, which is about $17 billion less than what he took in. The difference is explained--near enough--by the $17.5 billion paid out of the same Oil-for-Food stream of Saddam's oil revenues but dispensed, under another part of the U.N. Iraq program, by the U.N. Compensation Commission to victims of Saddam's 1990 invasion of Kuwait. That gives us a grand total of $65 billion earned, and about $65 billion allocated for payments, all very tidy.
Except the U.N. Compensation Commission states on its Web site that oil sales under Oil-for-Food totaled not Mr. Annan's $65 billion, but "more than US$70 billion"--a $5 billion discrepancy in U.N. figures. A phone call to the UNCC, based in Geneva, doesn't clear up much. A spokesman there says the oil total comes from the U.N. in New York, and adds, helpfully, "Maybe it was an approximate figure, just rounded up."
OK, but in some quarters, if not at the U.N., $5 billion here or there is big money. Halliburton has been pilloried, and rightly so, over questions involving less than 1% of such amounts. One turns for explanation to the U.N. headquarters in New York, where a spokesman confirms that though the U.N. program ended last November, the former executive director of Oil-for-Food, Benon Sevan, is still on contract, still drawing a salary, but Mr. Sevan's secretary explains he is "not giving interviews anymore." The spokesman, also still on salary, answers all requests for clarification with "I don't know," and "You have the Web site."
All right. The Web site brings us a U.N. update issued Nov. 21, 2003, when the U.N. turned over the program to the CPA, which tells us that $31 billion worth of supplies and equipment had been delivered to Iraq, with another $8.2 billion in the pipeline. That comes to $39.2 billion. Again, even if you add in, say, $2 billion for U.N. commissions, that's still about $5 billion short of the $46 billion Mr. Annan says was used for supplies--which might make sense if the program at the end had been swimming in loose cash, except that Mr. Sevan was lamenting toward the end that there was not enough money to fund all the supply contracts he'd already approved.
Returning to the U.N. Web site, nothing there discloses the amount of interest paid during the course of the program on the Oil-for-Food escrow accounts. That should have been substantial, because these U.N.-managed Iraq accounts in the final phases of the program held balances of about $12 billion. Or so we've been told. I first got that number by phoning the U.N. back in September 2002. That was well before Mr. Sevan stopped giving interviews, and I spoke with Mr. Sevan himself. He told me the Oil-for-Food accounts at that point contained balances of about $20 billion. The next day, someone in his office revised that down to about $15 billion. Later that afternoon, someone in the U.N. controller's office revised that down to $9 billion. When I protested that these discrepancies were getting large, we ended up haggling over the phone for a while, and finally settled on an official total of about $12 billion in the Oil-for-Food accounts.
I'm still not sure what to believe, however, given that the U.N. treasurer, Suzanne Bishopric, assured me at the same time, in September 2002, and again in early 2003, that the accounts had been diversified among "five or six" banks, and to date we have still heard mention of only one--a French bank, BNP Paribas. So, in some fit of arithmetic absent-mindedness, did Ms. Bishopric lose track of the number of banks, confusing one with five or six?
It's a little hard to know whether oil sales were actually $65 billion or $70 billion, whether there were five or six banks or just one, whether at least that one bank, BNP, ever paid significant interest on balances that toward the end of the program totaled $20 billion or $15 billion or $9 billion or $12 billion, and whether humanitarian import contracts were funded to the tune of $39.2 billion or $46 billion. Mr. Annan assures us the program has been audited many times, even if it was done in confidence, in-house, backed up by member nations that may have had their own interests to consider, such as one of Saddam's favorite trading partners, France.
If you want to get fancy, you can factor in the allegations that Saddam underbilled for oil and overpaid for goods via the U.N. contracts, in order to piggyback bribes and kickbacks atop the Oil-for-Food program. If true, then the two things we can bank on are that Saddam took in more than the U.N. reported, and the goods the Iraqi people received were worth less.
Which brings us back to Mr. Kay, who in reference to Oil-for-Food noted recently that "a lot of people took part in what was clearly a scam." I start to wonder whether Mr. Kay, given full powers to investigate, might return to report that whatever the U.N. may be reporting, we still don't have a clue about the real numbers.
Ms. Rosett is a fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the Hudson Institute. Her column appears here and in The Wall Street Journal Europe on alternate Wednesdays.


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Pakistan and the Hunt for Osama bin Laden listen
Pakistan has not done enough to hunt down Taliban and al Qaeda militants along the rugged Afghan frontier. Now, Pakistan is beginning a "spring offensive," and high-ranking American officers are sounding confident that Osama bin Laden may be killed or captured before the end of the year. But much depends on Pakistan's President General Musharraf, who's been the target of assassination attempts. Can Musharraf survive an effort to root out Islamic radicals? What's the role of American Special Forces? Are they spread too thin? What would the end of bin Laden mean for the war on terror? We hear from a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist in the US, the editor of a national Pakistani newspaper, a military analyst and a former State Department official.

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Capture of Al-Zawahri's son unconfirmed
Wednesday 25 February 2004, 15:24 Makka Time, 12:24 GMT
Pakistani officials have refused to comment on reports that the son of Ayman al-Zawahri, a close associate of Usama bin Ladin, is among a group of al-Qaida suspects captured on the Afghan border.
The Taliban and al-Qaida suspects were arrested on Tuesday after hundreds of Pakistani troops backed by helicopter gunships swooped down on a town in the semi-autonomous South Waziristan tribal region.
The Urdu-language Jang daily, quoting diplomatic sources, said al-Zawahri's son Khalid, was handed over to US custody soon after his arrest and flown out of Pakistan.
"The identities and nationalities of the suspects would be known when interrogation is over," a security official said.
The arrest, if confirmed, would be a major boost to US-led efforts to track down bin Ladin, the alleged architect of the September 11 attacks.
No information
Ayman al-Zawahiri, number two in al-Qaida network, threatened new attacks against the US in a recording attributed to him by Al-Jazeera television channel on Tuesday.
US military spokesman in Kabul said they did not have any information on arrests from the operation carried out by Pakistani authorities in the tribal region.
"We don't have any reports coming out of Pakistan in reference to who they picked up, at least I haven't seen anything yet," Lieutenant Colonel Matt Beevers said.
"The identities and nationalities of the suspects would be known when interrogation is over"
Unidentified Pakistani
security official
"Clearly coalition forces support the Pakistani army's efforts in the federally-administered tribal areas. They continue to do an outstanding job," he said.
Intelligence officials revealed that foreign women were among the detainees, but declined to release any more details.
"Among the men how many are foreigners I cannot comment," military spokesman Major General Shaukat Sultan said.
Pakistan had dismissed speculation that Tuesday's border operation targeted bin Ladin, after reports that his location had been pinpointed on a different stretch of the Afghanistan border.
South Waziristan has long been considered a sanctuary for Taliban and Al-Qaida members who fled Afghanistan in late 2001 when US-led forces invaded and ousted the Taliban government in Afghanistan.
Tens of thousands of Pakistani troops have been deployed along the 1600km border for the last two years and Islamabad says it has arrested more than 500 al-Qaida and Taliban suspects.

AFP
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Interrogators squash report on arrest of Zawahiri's son
Islamabad |By Shahid Hussain | 26-02-2004
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While interrogators are questioning more than 20 terrorist suspects arrested from a rugged tribal area on the Afghanistan border, the government yesterday dismissed speculation a son of top Al Qaida leader Ayman Al Zawahiri was among the captured lot.
"It is wild speculation," Foreign Office spokesman Masood Khan told a press briefing when asked whether a son, two daughters and wife of Osama bin Laden's deputy had been taken into custody.
The spokesman said investigation was under way to determine the nationalities of the men and some women taken into custody during a military operation on Tuesday in South Waziristan Agency, located about 300 km west of Islamabad.
A senior official, who did not want to be named, said that the men rounded up in South Waziristan did not include any important Al Qaida figure.
The Urdu newspaper Jang said in a report yesterday that a son of Al Zawahiri, whom it identified as Khalid, had been captured.
The report, quoting diplomatic sources, said Khalid had been handed to US custody and flown out of Pakistan. According to security sources the interrogators were trying to find clues from the arrested people about the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden and his companions.
The operation in the area, which has been under the spotlight as a sanctuary for fugitives from across the border, came after the expiry of a deadline that authorities had set for voluntary surrender by terrorist elements and their local supporters.
"The deadline was not met," the Foreign Office spokesman said, emphasising that the Pakistani forces were engaged in locating and neutralising any terrorist elements hiding in the tribal territory.
"We want to flush out all terrorists and eliminate the terrorist threat."
The military's public relations department has confirmed in a statement that some foreign women were among those arrested in Tuesday's operation.
The statement said the women were taken into custody by female police and were being treated "with due respect".
It also said some houses belonging to those who harbour terrorist elements were demolished in accordance with the established local customs and laws in the tribal territory.
Political authorities in South Waziristan have been pursuing a carrot-and-stick strategy to persuade tribal elders to apprehend foreigners and their harbourers and hand them over to the administration.
Dozens of local tribesmen were turned over to the authorities in recent weeks but many more on the list of those wanted for sheltering foreign elements were still at large, officials said.

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Three women suspects handed over to tribal elders
Islamabad, Feb 26 (DPA) Pakistani authorities have handed over to tribal elders three foreign women who were among 25 suspects captured in a major military operation Tuesday in South Waziristan region, officials said today.
''We handed them (arrested women) over to tribal elders after they insisted upon it because the detention of females is considered odd in the tribal customs,'' Rehmatullah Wazir, deputy administrator of the region, told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa today.
However, he made it clear that the tribal elders would be responsible for them and would ensure their appearance before the investigators when it was required. Wazir did not reveal the nationalities of the females nor their relations to their male companions.
During a day-long swoop in South Waziristan Agency, Pakistan's army nabbed five foreign suspects along with 20 locals. Soldiers also demolished a few houses belonging to those suspected of harbouring foreign militants.
A media report had said that a son of Ayman al-Zawahiri, a kingpin of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda terrorist network, was also detained in the operation. However, Pakistani officials had described that as ''wild speculation''.
South Waziristan is one of Pakistan's seven semi-autonomous regions - each called agencies - that snake along the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Pakistan's latest operation coincided with a weekend ''swoop'' launched by US and Afghan troops in southern and eastern parts of the country near North Waziristan Agency.
The renewed searches on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghan border came amid reported claims by Taliban members that Osama bin Laden, his deputy, Egyptian physician Ayman al-Zawahiri, and Taliban Chief Mullah Omar, were still alive in Afghanistan.
Pakistan, a key ally to the United States in its war on terror in Afghanistan, has handed over more than 500 Taliban and al-Qaeda fugitives to the US since the fall of the radical Taliban regime in late 2001.


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Reported Capture of Zawahiri's Son and Its Implications
Posted by Ross on Wednesday February 25, 2004 at 5:48 am MST [ Send Story to Friend ]
One of Pakistan's leading newspapers, the Urdu-language Jang, is reporting that a son of Ayman Zawahiri has been captured. The paper cites unnamed diplomatic sources. US officials have not confirmed the report. His daughters and wife apparently were previously killed. The report comes the same day as a Zawahiri tape makes threats of new attacks against the United States. The tape urges President Bush to prepare for new attacks on the US homeland. Coincidentally, CIA Director George Tenet testified yesterday before the Senate Intelligence Committee that `We see al-Qaeda's program to produce anthrax as one of the most immediate'" threats. While we wait to receive confirmation that his son was captured -- and who even knew he had a son -- it is worth revisiting what is known about Ayman.
Dr. Nimrod Raphaeli, a Senior Analyst of MEMRI's Middle East Economic Studies Program, published a very helpful description of Zawahiri's background in the journal "Terrorism and Political Violence." There was also a fascinating cover story by Lawrence Wright of the New Yorker, in the issue dated September 16, 2002. Given the importance of knowing your enemy, walk in his shoes and come to know the man. It's part of what is known as "Red Teaming."
Al-Zawahiri's family has its roots in a small town in Saudi Arabia "where the first battle between Prophet Muhammad and the infidels was fought and won by the Prophet." Indeed, with 9/11 and the anthrax mailings, he essentially is seeking to recreate the taking of Mecca by a small band. Al-Zawahiri's great grandfather came to the Nile Delta in the 1860s to a city where there is a mosque that still bears his name. His father, who was a professor of pharmacology at Ein Shams University, passed away in 1995. His grandfather on his mother's side was president of Cairo University and the Egyptian ambassador to Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. He was known for being pious and nicknamed "the devout ambassador." Two of his sisters are on the faculty at Cairo University Medical School. His uncle was the Dean of Cairo's medical school at one point. Including in-laws, he has 40 doctors of various sorts in his family.
Born June 1, 1951, he grew up in Cairo's Al-Ma'adi neighborhood. He graduated cum laude from Cairo University's medical school in 1974 with an MD degree. He received a master's degree in surgery in 1978 and was married the next year to to Izzat Ahmad Nuwair who had graduated with a degree in philosophy from Cairo University. His wife and children were killed in a bombing raid in Afghanistan and an obituary mourning their loss appeared in Cairo. He has a younger brother Hassan, an engineer, and had an older brother Muhammad. (Muhammad, was in Al Qaeda until being extradited to Egypt and executed pursuant to a death sentence imposed in the "Albanian returnees" case; Hassan was once extradited but released). Without his family, Zawahiri is a now a fanatic guided only by his faith and his literal interpretation of a book written many years ago.
In his youth, Zawahiri was influenced by Sayyid Qutb, one of the spiritual leaders of Islamic religious groups. After a two year stay in the United States where he gained a contempt for American culture, the secular writer Qutb returned to his religious roots and wrote extensively supporting violence against Christians and Jews, and even muslim leaders deemed infidel. Zawahiri traces the origin of the modern islamist movement to the hanging of Qutb in 1966. After joining a cell in 1974 at the age of 16, and then becoming its leader, he formed a military wing under the guidance of Al-Qamari, an Egyptian army officer. Known for their extreme secrecy, "[t]o aid their secrecy the group avoided growing beards like most Islamists, and hence they were known as "the shaven beards." It would remain his tactic to recruit members of the Egyptian army because of their training and expertise. In his book, Al-Zawahiri as I Knew Him, Attorney Al-Zayyat maintains that after his arrest in connection with the murder of President Sadat, Al-Zawahiri was tortured by the Egyptian police, and disclosed where his close friend and ally Al-Qamari was hiding. Zawahiri has burned with bitterness over the humiliation ever since. In the long run, torture merely leads to more terrorism.
During the 1975-1979, radical but not revolutionary study groups spread quickly through the Cairo, Ayn Shams and al-Azhar universities and elsewhere. Al-Jihad began as such a student organization. The student groups were one of the main targets of Sadat's crackdown in 1979. Hundreds were arrested and their campus groups dissolved. The revolutionary ideas of Qutb that influenced these student groups, which were known as jam'iyat. Courses of study in Egyptian universities are narrow, preventing many from acquiring a liberal education as they acquire technical skills. Thus, many fundamentalists are highly educated in technical fields yet do not have a broader educational background. Life as a student in Egypt is hard and job prospects are poor. In the late 1970s, an estimated 85% of al-Jihad's members were students.
In 1979, while working at the Muslim Brotherhood Al Sayyeda Zaynab clinic, Al-Zawahiri was asked if he wanted to go Afghanistan and he jumped at the opportunity. Even then, Afghanistan represented a possible secure base from which to wage jihad. He would later write: "It is as if 100 years were added to my life when I came to Afghanistan." He spent 4 months in Peshawar, Pakistan.
300 al-Jihad activists were arrested after Sadat's assassination. Almost all of those arrested were between the ages of 20 and 28 and most were medical, law or pharmacy students at either the Universities of Asyut or al-Minya. Of those prosecuted for Sadat's assassination, five were sentenced to life, twelve were given long prison terms and two were acquitted, including the blind shiek, who had purported to authorize the assassination on the basis of Islamic doctrine.
Zawahiri was imprisoned for a few years after Sadat's assassination in 1981 and allegedly tortured. "They don't seem to understand the cult of pain they're creating," al-Zayat has said. After being released from prison in 1984, he went to Saudi Arabia in 1986, returning to Pakistan by the next year. This time he worked as a surgeon for the Kuwaiti Red Crescent Hospital, which years later would be his cover when he traveled in the United States under the alias Moaz. In the late 1980s, there was a dispute in Peshawar between followers of the Egyptian Islamic Group and Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Accused of misappropriating funds, Zawahiri was cutoff from aid by Saudi Arabia and turned to Iran instead.
When Bin Laden's spiritual leader Azzam was assassinated, al-Zawahiri assumed the role. Zawahiri's philosophy is decidely anti-democratic. He thinks democracy must be overcome through violence. He knows best based on words written many years before. Although soft-spoken and outwardly calm, he is a fanatic. The humiliation he felt upon betraying al-Qamari still rages within him. He is not constrained by what most would view as ethical limits. Beware the quiet, deep thinker who thinks he knows best, particularly after you've killed his wife and children. In Bitter Harvest, he was very critical of the Muslim Brotherhood for its growing accommodation of secular rulers, though he softened his views somewhat in Prophets under the Banner.
In the mid-1990s, Al-Zawahiri sought to coordinate the activities of the various Islamic terrorist movements to carry out sabotage activities against the United States. A series of meetings included representatives of Hamas and Hezbollah. In a meeting held in Khartoum in April 1995, one direction Al-Zawahiri charted was to develop the effectiveness of the Islamic networks in London and New York, especially Brooklyn. The representatives agreed that Al-Zawahiri should visit the U.S. to see first hand the modus operandi of the Islamic networks there.
What does his son -- if he indeed had a son Khalid who was captured -- know about Zawahiri's decade long quest to weaponize anthrax for use against US targets?
Those that say that the "known facts" do not point to Al Qaeda as responsible for the anthrax attacks do not know the facts known by Khalid.
CIA Director Tenet, in contrast, may know Al Qaeda is responsible but wisely be following the advice of Lao-Tzu: "To know yet to think that one does not know is best; Not to know yet to think that one knows will lead to difficulty."


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Iran denies engagement in P2 nuclear centrifuge research
www.chinaview.cn 2004-02-26 16:17:57
TEHRAN, Feb. 25 (Xinhuanet) -- Iran said Wednesday that it is unnecessary to report to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) outcome of its research on centrifuge P2, the official IRNA news agency reported.
The IRNA quoted Secretary of Supreme National Security Council Hassan Rowhani as saying that Tehran does not have the centrifuge,and was only conducting related research or designing a prototype.
Rowhani was responding to an IAEA report issued Tuesday that indicated the discovery of an advanced P2 centrifuge that Iran could use to enrich uranium for a weapon.
The report, however, said Iran has agreed to suspend its enrichment and centrifuge testing program.
"Iran is engaged in other types of research but has not reported to the IAEA and does not deem it necessary to report to the UN," the IRNA quoted Rowhani as saying.
Also on Wednesday, Iran responded to the reported finding in Iran by the IAEA of traces of polonium-210, a radioactive element that can help trigger a nuclear chain reaction.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Hamid-Reza Asefi described it as a misunderstanding that "will be verified by the agency in the near future."
In a related development, the US envoy to the IAEA, Kenneth Brill, said Iran needs to demonstrate to the IAEA and international community that it has totally given up the nuclear program other than for civilian use.
IAEA board of directors is expected to discuss the report on Mar. 8 to decide whether Iran has kept its commitment related to the nuclear issue. Enditem
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Justice on trial

Feb 26th 2004 | THE HAGUE
From The Economist print edition
The long, slow trial of Slobodan Milosevic, former Yugoslav president, is raising questions about international courts
IT HAS been neither as short nor as salutary as believers in international justice had hoped. Moreover, the trial of Slobodan Milosevic, ex-president of Yugoslavia, has run into many practical snags. This week, just as the prosecution at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) was preparing, at long last, to wind up its case, the 62-year-old defendant, whose illness had already interrupted proceedings a dozen times, fell ill yet again. And the presiding judge, Britain's Richard May, announced that he was to step down, also for health reasons.
The tribunal's American head, Theodor Meron, says that Mr May's departure should "not have an unduly disruptive effect on any proceedings". But Mr Milosevic may now be able to demand a retrial. And that could conceivably mean abandoning two years' worth of hearings, involving nearly 300 witnesses and 30,000 pages of evidence.
Under the ICTY's rules, a replacement judge can be appointed if one of the three-judge panel dies or resigns in mid-trial. So Mr Meron could order the continuation of proceedings--but only if the defendant agrees. If Mr Milosevic, who has always refused to recognise the authority of the court anyway, will not agree, the two remaining judges could still decide to continue the trial if it would "serve the interests of justice". They probably will. But Mr Milosevic would have a right of appeal, causing yet more cost and delay.
Charged with 66 counts of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide during the Balkan wars in the 1990s, Mr Milosevic is the first head of state since the second world war to have to answer for such atrocities. At the trial's opening, Carla del Ponte, the chief prosecutor, declared that it was "the most powerful demonstration that no one is above the law." Human-rights groups predicted that it would set a "new benchmark". Nobody wants to throw all that away, especially at a time when the very concept of international justice is under fire.
The ICTY, set up in The Hague in 1993, was the first international court of its kind since the Nuremberg and Tokyo tribunals after the second world war. In the years since, ad hoc war-crimes tribunals have been set up for Rwanda, East Timor, Kosovo, Sierra Leone and Cambodia. Hopes were high that they, together with a new permanent International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, would end any notion of impunity for the chief perpetrators of atrocities--and so help to deter future ones.
But as the proceedings have lengthened and the costs have risen, disillusion has set in. The long American campaign against the ICC (not to be confused with the International Court of Justice, also in The Hague) has not helped. Last August, the UN imposed a "completion strategy" on both the Yugoslav and the Rwandan tribunals, requiring them to end all trials by 2008 and appeals by 2010. Financing (some $120m for the ICTY this year alone) will then cease.
Some criticisms of the ICTY are justified. All pioneers make mistakes, and the Yugoslav tribunal is no exception. But other shortcomings are inherent to international courts. The ICTY has had to harmonise different legal traditions, cope with multiple languages (of judges, lawyers, perpetrators and victims), and translate mountains of documents. Most of the cases before it are hugely complex, involving dozens of charges and hundreds of witnesses. Those convicted have a right of appeal against both conviction and sentence, which they always seem to exercise.
Evidence for war crimes is generally hard to come by, and suspects can be more elusive still. International tribunals do not have police powers: they cannot send in sheriffs to make arrests. They rely on the co-operation of foreign governments, which is not always forthcoming. The ICTY was lucky to have NATO and UN forces in Bosnia to help. But 20 of its chief suspects are still on the run, including Radovan Karadzic, the former Bosnian Serb leader, and Ratko Mladic, the general who allegedly organised the massacre of 7,500 Bosnian Muslims at Srebrenica in 1995. Mrs del Ponte has accused Serbia of giving these suspects a "safe haven", and of failing to hand over vital evidence.
Based in The Hague, operating only under international law, and with no judges from former Yugoslavia, the ICTY has been criticised for its distance from the scene of the crimes, for making victims feel irrelevant and for leading the Serbs, who make up the great majority of defendants, to talk of "victors' justice". Some even blame the court for the nationalists' revival in Serbia--both Mr Milosevic and Vojislav Seselj, a radical nationalist awaiting trial in The Hague, played a part in the elections in December and the political manoeuvring since (see article).
But the ICTY deserves praise as well as criticism. After an admittedly slow and shaky start, it has streamlined its operations and scored some notable successes. Between four and six trials are now being held in shifts every day, in the tribunal's three chambers. Of the 94 accused who have so far appeared before the court, half have been convicted, including Milan Babic, the former Croatian Serb leader. Eight are still on trial, including Momcilo Krajisnik, the Bosnian Serb leader accused of masterminding the Serbs' ethnic-cleansing campaign--the darkest chapter in a war that left some 100,000 Bosnians dead and forced a further 2m from their homes. Another 25 await trial; five have died after being charged; and five have had their charges withdrawn. Only five have so far been acquitted.
The prosecution has now agreed to rest its case forthwith, forgoing two days that had been allocated to it. The court has suspended its hearings until June 8th, so as to allow Mr Milosevic the extra time that he had requested to prepare his defence. This will also give time for a substitute judge for Mr May to get abreast of the proceedings. The court has given Mr Milosevic 150 days to complete his defence. Given a rhythm, on doctor's orders, of around three court days a week, proceedings could last well into 2006.
Will Mr Milosevic agree to a simple continuation of the trial? Officials suggest he has nothing to gain by prolonging things. But if he faces a life sentence anyway, he has nothing to lose either. More grandstanding on a public podium may be far more appealing than rotting quietly in a prison cell for the rest of his days.

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Yasser's Suicide Bombers
By HonestReporting.com
HonestReporting.com | February 26, 2004
On Feb.22 a suicide bomber on a Jerusalem bus killed 8 Israelis ? including two teenagers on their way to school ? and injured over 60.
The attack was perpetrated by a member of the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades. While it is generally accepted that this terrorist group is connected to Yassir Arafat's Fatah party, most major news agencies continued to downplay that relationship in today's reports:
? Associated Press: "The Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, a militant group loosely affiliated with Yasser Arafat's Fatah movement, claimed responsibility for the attack and identified the bomber as Mohammed Zool, 23, from the village of Hussan near Bethlehem."
? Washington Post: "Hezbollah television station Al-Manar reported that the bombing was carried out by the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, the militant group that associates itself with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's Fatah movement..."
? CNN: "The Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades ? the military offshoot of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's Fatah movement ? claimed responsibility for the blast in a statement."
? Agence France Presse: "The bombing, claimed by the radical Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, an armed offshoot of Arafat's Fatah movement..."
DIRECT CONNECTION
The evidence, however, clearly indicates that the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade is not some "loose offshoot," but rather has a direct and ongoing bond to the Fatah party, which holds a majority of seats in the Palestinian Parliament. The Palestinian government, therefore, bears direct responsibility for the group's heinous terrorist acts:
▪ In November, 2003 a BBC investigation found that up to $50,000 a month was funneled by Fatah directly to the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades. When BBC reported on today's attack, their terminology was consistent with these findings ? unlike the outlets above, BBC described the relationship between Fatah and the terrorists in an entirely accurate manner:
The militant al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, part of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's Fatah faction, has claimed responsibility for the suicide attack.
▪ Documents captured by the IDF in 2002 indicated Fatah's "systematic, institutionalized and ongoing financing" of the Al Aqsa Brigades, including a special allocation to the Bethlehem branch of the organization (the very group that dispatched today's bomber). After inspecting these documents, President Bush called for Arafat's removal in June, 2002.
▪ The leader of the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades in Tulkarm told USA Today on March 14, 2002: "The truth is, we are Fatah, but we didn't operate under the name of Fatah...We are the armed wing of the organization. We receive our instructions from Fatah. Our commander is Yasser Arafat himself."
▪ Last week, British MP Jenny Tonge went to visit Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades' Bethlehem branch. BBC's Radio 4 carried a report in which the terrorists themselves admit they are "part of Fatah...the militant part." (Click here to hear the report ? the statement regarding Fatah is about 2:50 in.)
HonestReporting calls on other media outlets to follow the BBC's lead and specify the integral connection between Fatah and the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades.
FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM
High school students mourning a classmate
This is not merely a semantic matter. The close ties that bond the Fatah-led PA to terrorist groups are the fundamental problem that prevents progress toward peaceful reconciliation. The dominant political party in the PA remains a direct sponsor of ongoing terrorism ? the ruling politicians and the terrorists are one and the same.
If media outlets fail to convey this, their readers and viewers certainly can't understand Israel's position in the raging debate over the security fence, which tomorrow reaches the world court at The Hague.
One paper that clearly doesn't "get it" is The Chicago Tribune, which published today three op-eds (1,2,3) railing against the security fence, all under the theme "Build Bridges, Not Walls."
Israel has been attempting to build bridges with her Palestinian neighbors for over fifty years. But as a terror-free Palestinian leadership has never emerged, and Israeli families continue to be torn apart by senseless terrorist murder, no other option currently exists. Until there's a Palestinian partner who forsakes terrorism, Israeli citizens deserve the protection of an imperfect wall.
In reporting on today's attack, did your local paper indicate the direct connections between the perpetrators of the horrific attack and Yassir Arafat's ruling Fatah party? If not, write a letter to the editor, using the talking points above, and stressing the significance of accuracy on this particular issue ? which cuts to the heart of the entire conflict.

Thank you for your ongoing involvement in the battle against media bias.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Maple Leaf Terror
By Stephen Brown
FrontPageMagazine.com | February 26, 2004
An American courtroom just witnessed the first conviction ever of a Canadian citizen in the War on Terror.
Mohammed Mansour Jabarah, 21, originally from Kuwait, pleaded guilty to several charges of planning attacks against American interests outside the United States. The charges include conspiracy to kill US nationals, destroy US property abroad with weapons of mass destruction, kill American employees while on duty, and conspiracy to use weapons of mass destruction. The WMD, in this case, was dynamite. According to Canadian newspapers, Jabarah was tried secretly at an undisclosed location in New York state.
Jabarah came to Canada with his family at age 12 and attended a Catholic high school in St. Catherines, Ontario. However, he returned summers to his native Kuwait where he and his older brother fell under the influence of Muslim extremists. After high school, the Canadian Islamist went to
Afghanistan, where he underwent guerrilla and explosives training at an al-Qaeda camp, rising up in the terrorist organization due to his proficiency in English and his Canadian passport. Jabarah eventually became a member of Osama bin Laden's bodyguard unit, coming into frequent contact with the al-Qaeda leader.
The day before 9/11, the Canadian terrorist, whose code name was "Sammy", was given $10,000 and sent to Southeast Asia to liaison with Islamist terrorist groups there and to organize strikes of his own. He is known to have met with Hambali, the mastermind of the Bali bombing in Indonesia, and is believed to have had a role in its planning. Jabarah himself became the ringleader of a plot to blow up Western embassies in Singapore with truck bombs.
Fortunately, the plot was uncovered in time, causing Jabarah to flee to Oman, a Persian Gulf state. Arrested there, he was returned to Canada, where, after a meeting with Canadian intelligence officials, he was persuaded to walk across the border at Niagara Falls to talk with American authorities. The Americans, happy to have such a high-ranking al-Qaeda operative walk into their arms, spirited their intelligence find away to a secret location, presumably a military facility in Brooklyn, New York.
While in American custody, Jabarah's older brother, Abdul Rahman, continued to carry the family flag in the sick and twisted world of Islamist terrorism. Last May, he and 18 other al-Qaeda Islamists fought a gun battle with security forces in Saudi Arabia. Al-Qaeda then struck one week later with suicide truck bombers who killed 34 people and wounded hundreds more in housing compounds in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia's capital. However, the older Jabarah's career path as Islamist terrorist was cut short last July when Saudi authorities killed him.
Unfortunately, the younger Jabarah was not the only Canadian Islamist on trial in the United States this month. Mohammed Warasame, 30, a Somali-Canadian, is facing a charge in a Minnesota courtroom of providing support to a terrorist organization. According to an FBI affidavit, Warasame, a former Toronto resident, wired money to people he met in Taliban training camps in Afghanistan where he taught English to al-Qaeda members and saw combat in a Taliban military unit. He once sat next to Osama bin Laden at a meal and had asked the al-Qaeda leader for money to move his family to Afghanistan. Instead, bin Laden, whom Warasame described in the affidavit as "very inspirational", gave him an airplane ticket back to North America and $1,700 in traveling money.
Moreover, another Canadian citizen returned recently from a stint as a guest of the US government in Guantanamo Bay. Abdurahman Khadr, 21, a Toronto resident whose family comes from Egypt, had trained at a Taliban camp in Afghanistan, where he fell into American hands. Khadr has the dubious honor of belonging to Canada's first family of terrorism. His younger brother, Omar, is still interned in Guantanamo Bay, charged with killing an American soldier with a grenade in a firefight in Afghanistan. Khadr's father, Ahmed Said, was killed in a shootout with security forces in Pakistan last fall, while still another brother, 14-year-old Abdul, was wounded in the same fight and now lies paralyzed in a Pakistani hospital. Only the oldest Khadr son, Abdullah, who once ran a Taliban training camp, is still at large.
Opportunely, a US Library of Congress report also appeared this month in Canadian papers, accusing Canada of becoming a haven for Islamist terrorists and a liability in the War on Terror. Called 'The Nations Hospitable to Organized Crime and Terrorism', the document, compiled last fall by the US Congress's research division and the Central Intelligence Agency's Crime and Narcotics Center, takes America's northern neighbor to task for its loose security environment. The report blames Canada's "...generous social welfare system, lax immigration laws, infrequent prosecutions, light sentencing, and long borders...", among other factors, for making it a favorite destination for terrorist and criminal groups, which are "increasingly using Canada as an operational base and transit country en route to the United States."
While these findings are nothing new, as US governors, intelligence officials and Canadian conservatives have constantly pointed them out, their results continue to emerge in American courtrooms and, it appears, will unfortunately do so for the foreseeable future.

Stephen Brown is a journalist based in Toronto. He has an M.A. in Russian and Eastern European Studies. Email him at alsolzh@hotmail.com.
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EU, US trumpet 'win-win' accord in satellites row
26 February 2004
European Union and US officials trumpetted Thursday a "win-win" accord resolving a transatlantic row over rival satellite systems, saying it will create a new world standard of radio-navigation.
The two sides said they hope to clear up final details of an accord on Europe's planned Galileo satellite system in time for an EU-US summit in Ireland in June, to be attended by US President George W. Bush.
The agreement on all but a few "legal and procedural" issues was struck Wednesday after two days of talks, following previous negotiating rounds in the Netherlands and Washington which had failed to make headway.
"All in all we have achieved what was always our objective, a win-win outcome. We still have some details to work out but the major principles ... are now in place," said senior US official Ralph Braibanti.
EU commissioner Loyola de Palacio said: "This is another very important step for the Galileo project, which recognises both sides as equal partners and creates the optimal conditions for the development of the European system.
"This agreement will allow all users to use in a complementary way both systems with the same receiver: it creates indeed the world standard of radio-navigation by satellite," she added.
The US offer came after the Europeans agreed late last year to modify the modulation of Galileo signals intended for government use so they would not disrupt encrypted GPS signals to be used by the US military and NATO.
The United States has been watching the development of Galileo warily for the past two years, fearing it could compromise US and NATO military operations which rely on the GPS system for navigation and combatant location.
At one point, Washington suggested that the Galileo was an unnecessary rival to GPS that merely duplicated the US system.
But Europe has forged ahead with the project and Galileo is set to be operational by 2008 with 30 satellites encircling the globe in medium orbit.
EU official Heinz Hilbrecht, a director at the European Commission, added that: "Our objective is to have everything ready for the EU-US summit" scheduled to be held on June 25-26 in Ireland.
According to the joint statement, the two sides agreed on key points including:
- a common signal structure for so-called "open" services, and a suitable signal structure for the Galileo Public Regulated Service (PRS).
- a process allowing improvements, either jointly or individually, of the baseline signal structures in order to further improve performances.
- confirmation of interoperable time and standards to facilitate the joint use of GPS and Galileo.
Braibanti added that the accord was a welcome example of US-European cooperation, at a time when differences ranging from Iraq to an ongoing series of trade spats have soured the transatlantic mood.
"We've succeeded in converting issues that would have driven a wedge between the US and Europe into a situation where satellite navigation now clearly appears to be an area that is going to clearly add to the strengthen of the transatlantic partnership," he said.
Earlier this month the European Commission, the EU's executive arm, shortlisted three groups as possible operators of the Galileo system.
Consortiums led by Eutelsat, Inmarsat/EADS/Thales and Alcatel Space/Vinci will go into a final process of competitive negotiation to win the contract, it said.
GALILEO - further information
Text and Picture Copyright ? 2004 AFP. All other copyright ? 2004 EUbusiness Ltd. All rights reserved. This material is intended solely for personal use. Any other reproduction, publication or redistribution of this material without the written agreement of the copyright owner is strictly forbidden and any breach of copyright will be considered actionable.
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Rumsfeld: 'Close doesn't count' in bin Laden hunt
Defense chief notes Pakistan's renewed moves against al Qaeda
Thursday, February 26, 2004 Posted: 2:48 PM EST (1948 GMT)
KABUL, Afghanistan (CNN) -- Pakistan's military has stepped up its hunt for Taliban and al Qaeda operatives -- including Osama bin Laden -- near the Afghan border, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Thursday after arriving in Afghanistan.
However, Rumsfeld said the forces tracking bin Laden were no "closer or farther at any given moment" from capturing the al Qaeda leader.
"Close doesn't count," he said at a news conference with Afghan President Hamid Karzai. "I suspect that we'll find that it is accomplished at some point in the future, and I wouldn't have any idea when."
U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan reportedly are planning a spring offensive against the Taliban and al Qaeda fighters remaining in Afghanistan.
Earlier Thursday, Rumsfeld visited reconstruction teams in the former Taliban stronghold of Kandahar before heading to the capital, Kabul, where he met with Karzai.
The defense secretary praised Afghanistan's progress since U.S. forces ousted the Taliban regime in 2001.
"This country has gone in a short period from a haven for terrorists to a coalition ally in the war against terrorism," Rumsfeld said. "Freedom is clearly taking root in this country, and Afghanistan is on a path to become a model for freedom and moderation in the Muslim world."
In recent days, the defense secretary has spoken on the record about Pakistan's military operations in its border areas, which could be an indication of improved U.S. intelligence on al Qaeda movements.
On Tuesday, Pakistani government sources said their forces launched a military operation based on new intelligence, arresting at least 25 people. (Full story)
Government sources had said earlier that the Pakistani army was ready to conduct a major campaign against al Qaeda and Taliban forces in the Wana area, where bin Laden and Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar are believed to be hiding.
Five aid workers killed in attack
On the eve of Rumsfeld's arrival, five aid workers in Afghanistan were shot dead near Kabul late Wednesday, the United Nations said.
U.N. spokesman Fred Eckhard said unknown assailants fired on the workers in a village about 15 miles (25 kilometers) north of the capital.
The U.N. mission in Afghanistan called the attack "absolutely unacceptable."
Also Wednesday, a U.S. soldier was killed and another injured in a single-vehicle accident along a main road, U.S. Central Command said. The accident is under investigation.

CNN's Barbara Starr in Kabul contributed to this report.

Posted by maximpost at 10:52 PM EST
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