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BULLETIN
Thursday, 5 February 2004


>> FRENCH MAFIA?

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Chirac Rapped for Naming Own Court Probe
ASSOCIATED PRESS
PARIS (AP) -
President Jacques Chirac was on the firing line Thursday for creating his own panel to probe allegations that judges who convicted a close political ally in a party financing scandal came under pressure before the verdict.
Chirac bypassed the body charged with assuring the judiciary's independence and instead named a special commission to investigate the case that grew out of former Prime Minister Alain Juppe's trial and conviction.
"It's a veritable twisting of a state of law," said Dominique Rousseau, a member of the High Council for the Magistrature, or CSM, speaking to the daily Le Monde. The French constitution calls for the CSM to investigate irregularities in the judicial system.
Juppe, a leading political figure in France, was found guilty last Friday of a leading role in a scheme to fill the coffers of Chirac's conservative party when both men served at Paris City Hall.
Juppe was given an 18-month suspended prison sentence and banned from holding political office for a decade - a sentence suspended by his appeal. Juppe is a lawmaker and mayor of Bordeaux.
Meanwhile, the presiding judge in the Juppe case, Catherine Pierce, claimed that she and her two colleagues had been threatened and harassed before they issued the verdict.
A criminal investigation was opened in Nanterre, the Paris suburb where the trial was held. However, Chirac quickly named a three-judge panel to carry out its own investigation.
Parliament also opened an inquiry - and drew criticism from opposition Socialists who said the legislature had no business meddling in an affair that clearly falls within the judicial branch's domain.
Chirac served as Paris mayor from 1977 to 1995, and there had been efforts to question him in the Juppe case, in which city funds were used to pay personnel of Chirac's Rally for the Republic Party, now known as the UMP. However, Chirac is protected by presidential immunity - which he will lose if not re-elected in 2007.

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The News International Pakistan, 23 January 2003
Anti-corruption group cites Chirac over
kickbacks
BERLIN: Publishing its 2003 report on corruption around the world on Wednesday, the
international watchdog group Transparency International (TI) had words of criticism for French
President Jacques Chirac, noting that "a significant number" of legal actions had been set in motion
against members of his entourage.
"President Jacques Chirac has seen a significant number of legal actions taken against
people in his entourage" over affairs stretching from the 1970's to the 1990's, and was himself involved
in controversy in 2001 over the buying of travel tickets with secret government funds, the report said.
The allegations against members of Chirac's entourage "concerned the period when he was president of
his own party, the Rally for the Republic (RPR), and mayor of Paris," the TI report said. Before being
elected president in 1995, Chirac headed the RPR, which he founded, from 1976 to 1994, and served as
the Paris mayor from 1977 to 1995.
The report noted that the allegations against Chirac from the 1970's, 80's and 90's included
"illegal financing of political parties and electoral campaigns via kickbacks for public works projects"
as well as "the rigging of electoral rolls in order to influence local elections."
http://www.jang.com.pk and http://www.jang-group.com

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Most French back Jupp?: poll

PARIS, Feb 5 (AFP) - A clear majority of the French public supports the decision by former prime minister Alain Juppe to stay in politics pending his appeal against a conviction for illegal party funding, according to a poll Thursday.
In the IFOP survey in Le Figaro newspaper, 62 percent of those questioned approved Juppe's decision, announced in a television interview Tuesday, and 38 percent opposed it. Among voters for Juppe's Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party, support jumped to 89 percent.
Some 65 percent of the public said Juppe was convincing and 63 percent said he was sincere.
However a majority - 55 percent - also thought the decision would have a negative impact for the UMP in regional elections in March, and 57 percent said it would have a negative impact for President Jacques Chirac.
Juppe was put under pressure to leave the presidency of the UMP - as well as his seat in the National Assembly and the mayorship of Bordeaux - after being sentenced on Friday to an 18 month suspended jail term and a 10 year bar on elected office.
But on Tuesday he told television viewers that his punishment was excessive and that he was staying in politics to fight the verdict on appeal.
The former prime minister is a close ally of Chirac. He was found guilty of organising the payment of party workers with Paris municipal funds when Chirac was the capital's mayor.

? AFP

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Jupp? touch?
Former French prime minister Alain Jupp?, loyal party chairman of president Chirac's centre-right UMP party, is at the centre of France's latest corruption scandal. Hugh Schofield profiles the technocrat so supposedly sharp he became nicknamed Amstrad.
Presidential hopeful Jupp? said he would leave politics if found guilty.
Convicted last Friday of illegal party funding and barred from public office, Alain Jupp? is a gifted leader of the French right whose efforts on behalf of his political mentor, President Jacques Chirac, have twice proved his undoing.
Between 1995 and 1997 it was to implement Chirac's presidential promise to modernise French society that Jupp? embarked on a campaign of social reforms - leading to strikes, an early election and his departure as one of the most unpopular prime ministers in recent history.
But well before that Jupp? was Chirac's financial director when the president was mayor of Paris, and in that capacity connived in a system of illegal funding that allowed party functionaries to be paid out of municipal and private company funds.
Jupp?'s trial was the closest magistrates have come to investigating Chirac's own role in the scandal, but his lieutenant remained loyal to the last. While denying knowledge of the illegal funding, Jupp? admitted that "as the boss I must assume my responsibilities."
Chirac - the real boss at the Hotel de Ville - would not be touched. The cost of this loyalty came clear last Friday when the court in the Paris suburb of Nanterre gave Jupp? an 18-month suspended prison term - which under election rules bears an automatic period of "ineligibility from public office."
Jupp? said before the verdict he would leave politics if barred from office - in addition to the presidency of Chirac's Union for a Popular Majority (UMP) party, he is a member (MP) of the National Assembly as well as being mayor of Bordeaux - but his decision to immediately appeal the sentence has put the its application on hold.
No longer "ensemble": Jupp? with ambitious rival Nicolas Sarkozy (left).
The precociously intelligent son of a southwestern farmer - his bald head seems to vindicate his reputation for braininess - Jupp? went to the elite forcing-ground that is the National Administration School (ENA) and was talent-spotted by Chirac when he was prime minister in 1976.
When Chirac broke with then president Val?ry Giscard d'Estaing and set up his party, the Rally for the Republic (RPR) - the precursor to the UMP - Jupp? went with him, serving loyally through the party's crises, splits and electoral rebuffs in the 1980s and 1990s.
In 1993 he performed a trick which less able operators missed when he agreed to become foreign minister under Chirac's arch-rival Edouard Balladur.
As the RPR broke into rival camps, Jupp? said he was "loyal to Balladur, faithful to Chirac," and kept in with both.
After Chirac's presidential victory in 1995, Jupp? was the obvious choice as prime minister - but apart from his reforms it was his typecasting as a cold and intellectual technocrat that cost him the popularity of the voters.
Advised to see a communications specialist, he had one session then stopped, saying he "hated having someone explain in an hour what I can understand in 15 seconds." After his resignation he said, "it is always easier to smile than to reform. I tried to reform. I did not try to smile."
But Jupp?'s most important achievement was to come. Operating out of the public eye, he spent five years painstakingly making the alliances and political arrangements that in 2001 would see the birth of the UMP and a year later the centre-right's triumphant return to power.
Admired if not always loved in the party, he has been Chirac's personal choice to replace him if he steps down from the presidency in 2007 - and a counterweight to the openly ambitious Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, who Chirac mistrusts.
But his sentence makes it hard to see how Jupp? can make it to the top. Though the appeal means he can in theory keep alive his hopes, he must remain for at least another year in political limbo - with the words of the judge that he "deceived the confidence of the sovereign people" ringing in the ears of the French public.

? AFP
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Juppe guilty of RPR Paris scam
but appeal postpones sentence
PARIS, Jan 30 (AFP) - In a verdict with major implications for France's governing centre-right, one of President Jacques Chirac's top political allies - former prime minister Alain Juppe - was found guilty Friday of illegal party funding and barred from public office.
Juppe, who at 58 now heads the pro-Chirac Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party, was given a 18-month suspended jail term by the court in the Paris suburb of Nanterre - a sentence which under electoral rules means an an automatic disqualification from public office for at least five years.
The former prime minister had threatened to leave politics if disqualified from office, ruling himself out of contention to succeed Chirac after 2007 presidential elections and setting off a potentially bitter period of in-fighting within the UMP.
However, he immediately launched an appeal, which meant the entire sentence was put on hold. Juppe's political future thus was likely to remain in limbo until the appeal hearing, which could be at least a year away.
Juppe did not react as the verdict was read. His lawyer, Francis Szpiner, called the ruling "open to criticism and unjust".
The former prime minister was convicted of "taking illegal benefits" in the biggest case yet to come to court centring on allegations of financial irregularities during Chirac's 18-year tenure to 1995 as mayor of Paris.
Then head of Chirac's Rally for the Republic (RPR) party - the UMP's precursor - as well as financial director at Paris city hall, Juppe was found to have arranged for the payment of RPR staffers with municipal funds between 1998 and 1995.
During last September's trial he denied the accusations, saying he only became aware of the system in 1993 and then put a stop to it. But one of his former colleagues told the court that "everyone knew" about the illegal payments.
Twenty-six other people faced charges in the trial, including two former RPR treasurers and businessmen accused of paying RPR salaries in order to get access to municipal contracts. Most were convicted and given suspended prison terms.
Juppe served as Chirac's first prime minister from 1995 but his attempts at social reform led to strikes and he lost office to the Socialist Lionel Jospin in the 1997 election. He was then instrumental in the formation of the UMP and the centre-right's successful fight back in 2002.
Described once by Chirac as "the best from among us," he has a close relationship with the president who is widely presumed to want him as his successor. However critics say he is a cold intellectual who lacks the charisma necessary to carry him to the top.
Commentators said that Juppe alone has been able to control the rival Gaullist, pro-European and liberal factions of the UMP, and that he is also seen by Chirac as the best way of thwarting the presidential ambitions of the popular interior minister Nicolas Sarkozy.
The charges in Juppe's trial dated from a time when all French poliical parties were resorting to underhand methods to finance themselves. Chirac himself has avoided judicial investigations into how much he knew of the payment scam by claiming presidential immunity.

? AFP
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Juppe judge targeted by death
threats, break-ins, phone taps
PARIS, Feb 2 (AFP) - France was in political turmoil Monday over the conviction on corruption charges of former prime minister Alain Juppe, as three separate investigations were launched into claims that the judge who sentenced him was the target of phone taps and threats.
The speaker of the National Assembly Jean-Louis Debre announced plans for a parliamentary enquiry into allegations made Saturday by judge Catherine Pierce that her offices were broken into and her computer tampered with during the run-up to Friday's verdict.
The enquiry came after President Jacques Chirac ordered an investigation under three top judges, and the justice ministry began proceedings to determine if criminal charges can be brought.
The row over the alleged interference drew attention away from the separate debate over the future of Juppe himself, the head of Chirac's Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party who has been widely tipped as a centre-right candiate for presidential elections in 2007.
Juppe, 58, was found guilty of illegally paying party workers with funds belonging to Paris city hall and given an 18-month suspended prison term and a ten-year bar on holding public office. However he immediately announced an appeal, which put the sentences on hold.
France's political world was awash with speculation about Juppe's intentions, with commentators saying his resignation from the UMP could open up a period of fierce in-fighting, just seven weeks before important regional elections.
Juppe, who is also mayor of the southwestern city of Bordeaux and a member of the National Assembly, confirmed that he would announce his decision Tuesday.
"I have had a good think. I respect the court. Tomorrow probably on television I shall tell the French what I have decided. Till then I hope you will understand that I am keeping it to myself," he told supporters who gathered to wish him well at the Bordeaux city hall.
Prompting speculation that he is urging Juppe to stick it out in the hope of quashing the verdict on appeal, Chirac told journalists in Marseille that his protege was a "political figure of exceptional quality, competence, humanity and honesty. France needs men of his quality."
Chirac's left-wing opponents said that he himself had been indirectly damaged by the Juppe verdict, because during the period when the illegal payments were being made - the late 1980s and early 1990s - the president was the mayor of Paris and Juppe his financial director.
"Given what the judge said there can be no doubt at all that when Jacques Chirac has completed his term in office, at some time or other - by some manner or another - he will face judicial proceedings," said Socialist leader Francois Hollande. Chirac is currently protected by presidential immunity.
Rumours were circulating about who could have ordered the alleged phone taps at judge Pierce's offices in the western Paris suburb of Nanterre, with memories reawakened of another magistrate - Eric Halphen - who complained of harassment while looking into corruption at Chirac's party.
In an interview with Le Parisien newspaper, Pierce said, "Our offices ... received regular 'visits' over these last months ... Our work computers were gone through. We also think our telephones - including our personal ones - were tapped.
"We don't know who was behind all this. We simply came to the conclusion that a lot of people wanted to know what would be our decision," she said.
The state prosecutor in Nanterre said that two preliminary police investigations were already set up earlier this month. The first followed the receipt of a threatening letter in which the author said that if Juppe was not barred from office he would face justice "by force if necessary."
The second investigation was into an incident in which a workman was found dismantling the ceiling in Pierce's office. The man told police he was trying to make his way into the next-door office, whose lock had broken.

? AFP
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Who broke the judge?
Eric Halphen is the name of the French investigating magistrate who embarassed president Jacques Chirac by calling him for questioning over the alleged corruption scam at Paris city hall when Chirac was mayor of the capital.
Judge Halphen, like other magistrates who took on the mighty in France, is no more -- or rather, is no longer practising his profession.
This year he published his own account of the uncovering of the scandal known as that of "Les HLMs de Paris". Sept ans de solitude (Seven years of solitude), published by Deno?l, is a deeply disturbing read, and strongly recommended to anyone interested in understanding just why France has become so notorious in Europe for its institutionalised corruption.
Halphen, although he does not say so clearly, took leave of his job after failing to take his case to what he thought was its ultimate conclusion: the indictment of Chirac, who refused to be interrogatedby Halphen, on the legally justified basis that a president, while in office, cannot be questioned in such an investigation.
The magistrate then soon failed in his next enterprise -- that of getting elected in this year's legislative elections as a representative of the maverick centrist politician Jean-Pierre Chev?nement. Along with his sheepish physical appearance, Halphen cuts a somewhat sad figure, a man who one realises, by reading his book, has been broken somewhere inside by his harrowing experiences probing into one of France's biggest corruption scandals.
The facts which he outlines almost begger belief.
Firstly, in the extent of the already widely-reported scam which he was charged with investigating; it seems that hardly a single public building contract in and around Paris escaped the rule that construction companies were successful only if they paid a kick-back to Chirac's RPR party henchmen. The sums were huge, and transited around the world in an elaborate network of secret bank accounts, often in 'fiscal paradises' like Litchenstein, Switzerland or the Isle of Man.
Just how much the brazen system financially benefited political funds or individuals is not clear, but the sums involved were huge.
Secondly, in the account of the overt personal intimidation and professional sabotage suffered by Halphen, which is so outrageous that even a fiction writer might not have dared such a plot was, in fact, possible. The intimidation included disguised threats to him and his family, phone taps, secretly taken pictures of his love life, frightening notes left under the windscreen wipers of his car.
For much of the time during his seven-year investigation the RPR party was in government, and Halphen describes political manouevering of police and prosecution officials to thwart his activities.
Halphen is convinced, as are most newspaper readers, that financial corruption scams are common to all parties, and he is as scathing about the attitude of Socialist ministers as he is about those of the right. He suggests that despite the laws passed in recent years to clean up the illegal practices of party funding, little or nothing has changed and -- more sadly -- ever will.
It is here that Halphen, with whom one can only sympathise until then, strays off the track. Reading between the lines, one is struck by the dilemna he feels after having had his ideals in French justice shattered (he was one of the longest-serving French examining magistrates), and yet he is unable to denounce the fundamental flaws in the system which allowed this to happen.
He is almost smug in his assertion that he is about to surprise his reader by claiming that he wishes no radical reform of the French justice machine, and he makes this comment after some 200 pages of detailed description of a bankrupt and corrupt beaurocracy. For, if he was to suggest otherwise, the role of the examining magistrate comes under question.
Rather, Halphen contents himself to outline the inherent overwork and ultimate impotence of the magistrates, who in France lead all serious criminal investigations. There is, he appears to admit, no cure in sight to prevent the abominable story he recounts happening again.
The many, many disturbing issues he raises should be the subject of urgent reform, of public outrage and political shame. In many countries, his book would create a scandal and a political crisis. Less clear is whether it's France, or Halphen, who lost the plot.
Graham Tearse
Editor
Expatica France
graham.tearse @expatica.com
21 November 2002
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Chirac's private enemy No 1
He is France's most popular politician; he is permanently in the public eye parading his roster of successes as minister of the interior; he is young, able and ambitious. But Nicolas Sarkozy has one problem: he is on collision course with the president. Hugh Schofield reports.
The heart of the tension is Sarkozy's clear aim to become president in 2007.
French newspapers chose 14 January to trumpet the ill-concealed state of warfare that has broken out between Jacques Chirac and the man who would replace him.
"Sarkozy lays siege to the Elysee," ran the front page of the left-wing Lib?ration. "Why Sarkozy is doing all he can to get himself fired," blazoned the popular daily Le Parisien, while the pro-government Le Figaro asked: "Is Sarkozy going too far?"
At the heart of the mounting tension lies the 49 year-old minister's manifest desire to take over at the next presidential elections in 2007.
Since November 2003, he has made no attempt to hide his hopes. Asked on a television show if he thought much of the presidency, he replied "Oh yes, and not just when I am shaving."
In another interview he said presidents should be limited to two mandates - and that old politicians should give way to a new generation.
The target of the message was not hard to read because Chirac is 71, half way through his second term and considering a third. The president began his career in the mid-1960s.
And while on an official visit to China earlier this month, Sarkozy had teeth gnashing once more in the Elysee when he was quoted asking Chinese President Hu Jintao, "What is it like taking over as number one when like you one has spent ten years as number two?"
In a system where ministers doff their caps his behaviour is provocative.
In January he was flexing his political muscles again - offering a buffet dinner for 100 parliamentarians from Chirac's Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party and last Wednesday appearing in a press conference to report on his ministry's achievements for 2003.
The news was good - a 3.4 percent drop in reported crime - and there was more grist to the presidential mill when commentators said Sarkozy's chosen method of communication - a live broadcast from his ministry in Paris - reminded them of Charles de Gaulle.
On policy the minister has also marked his own territory, publicly disagreeing with the president on the hot issue of affirmative action. While Chirac has stuck to the view that discriminating in favour of Muslim immigrants is unFrench, Sarkozy has said it is vital to encourage integration.
His supporters warn: three years till the presidential race is a long time.
In a political system in which ministers are expected to doff their caps to the head of state, his behaviour has been deliberately provocative.
What vexes the Elys?e is that Sarkozy's opinion ratings remain in the high 60s - oustripping Chirac by several points - and that makes him hard to touch.
"In an increasingly complex political universe, Nicolas Sarkozy travels with simple ideas. He wants to be president of the republic. Not very original, but he has decided to get there by the shortest route possible," said Lib?ration in an editorial last Wednesday .
Insiders at the Place Beauvau - the ministry building that conveniently lies a few hundred metres across from the Elys?e palace - say Sarkozy is well aware of the effect he is having. "Chirac doesn't hate me," he was quoted as saying in Le Monde newspaper last week,
"it is worse: he fears me."
But even his supporters are warning that he risks over-reaching himself, and that the three years till the next presidential race are a long time in which to sustain a political guerrilla campaign without at some point taking return fire.
Nicolas Sarkozy - hot seat hotshot
As one insider at the Elysee told AFP: "He is acting a little too much in a hurry."
This could mean that the young pretender will soon ease off the pressure, calculating that having laid down a marker for the election he is now clearly seen by the public as one who is "presidentiable" - fit for the job.
January 2004
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Juppe victim of 'communists': Berlusconi
BRUSSELS, Feb 5 (AFP) - Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi expressed support Thursday for embattled former French premier Alain Juppe, and launched a stinging attack on "political justice" and "communism."
Berlusconi - no stranger to legal problems himself - won polite applause from an audience of rightwing delegates after the tirade which accompanied an expression of solidarity with Juppe, convicted of corruption last week.
"There is another form of communism. It is communism without communism," he told a congress of the European People's Party (EPP) in Brussels, without specifying which countries he was criticizing.
"It is the most dangerous form, because it is the least visible .. That means one disowns one's own past, that one washes ones hands piously of all the crimes of the communist regimes .. while keeping the communist methods."
Such methods include "seeking to eliminate the political adversary, not by the vote or by democracy, but by resorting to political justice, as it used to be in certain countries and as it continues to be in certain countries."
Berlusconi concluded his tirade, launched at a meeting held in the European Parliament, by saying: "Allow me to address a message of soliarity with Alain Juppe, whom I know and whom I respect deeply."
Juppe, a close ally of President Jacques Chirac, confounded predictions of his departure from politics Tuesday, announcing he will remain at his elected posts until his appeal against a conviction for illegal party funding.
Berlusconi, known for his inimitable rhetorical style, was hit by new legal problems last month after a top court removed his immunity from prosecution on corruption charges.

? AFP

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Ex-French PM Cresson faces EU fraud case
BRUSSELS, Feb 4 (AFP) - Belgian prosecutors have decided to drop most charges against former French prime minister Edith Cresson, although she will still face court over one fraud indictment, a spokeswoman said Wednesday.
The charges stem from a corruption scandal which sparked the collapse in 1999 of the European Commission, the EU executive of which Cresson was a member.
Cresson, who was French prime minister from 1991 to 1992, was indicted last March on charges of cronyism during her time as a member of the Brussels-based EU executive in the late 1990s.
She was specifically accused of organising the hiring by her department of Rene Berthelot, a personal friend and retired dentist, from 1996-1997, who was allegedly paid some EUR 150,000 (USD 188,000) for a fictitious job.
According to a spokeswoman, the only indictment on which prosecutors are pursuing Cresson relates to a number of allegedly counterfeit orders mandating missions or tasks to be carried out on the commission's behalf.
The Belgian daily Le Soir reported that the allegedly false documents involve expenditure of about EUR 7,000 to Berthelot.
"The prosecution is asking that Mme. Cresson and a civil servant be sent to court for 13 mission orders" which are suspected of being counterfeit, said Estelle Arpigny, spokeswoman for the prosecutor's office.
Prosecutors are set to propose that all other charges be dropped, she said, adding that a decision in the case is likely "in the coming weeks or the coming months".
The 1999 Brussels fraud scandal sparked the collapse of the commission headed by Jacques Santer, whose successor Romano Prodi has battled to clean up the EU executive's tarnished reputation.
As well as the alleged fraud involving Berthelot, Cresson was also alleged to have given benefits to a French company in work carried out in connection with an EU training programme of which she was in charge.

? AFP
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Wednesday, 10 October, 2001, 12:09 GMT 13:09 UK
Q & A: Chirac's corruption battle
France's President, Jacques Chirac, has been accused of corruption during his time as Mayor of Paris and as president of the Gaullist RPR Party.
Judges investigating the allegations wanted to question him, but have been thwarted by Mr Chirac's claim to presidential immunity, causing one of them to resign in disgust.
BBC News Online's Alexandra Fouch? looks at what that means for Mr Chirac and French politics ahead of this year's elections.
What are the allegations against Chirac?
There are several cases under investigation, of which the four biggest are:
Paris public housing (or HLM) contracts backhanders: This investigation, initially opened by Judge Eric Halphen in 1994, concerns bribes allegedly paid for the allocation of public housing contracts, which are thought to have contributed to the financing of the RPR and other political parties. The allegations against two people close to Mr Chirac - the late Jean-Claude Mery and Michel Roussin - prompted prosecutors to ask how much he knew about the scam.
Chirac's career
1976-1994: RPR President
1977-1995: Mayor of Paris
1974-1976 and 1986-1988: Prime Minister
Since 1995: President
In September, the Court of Appeals threw out the case because of procedural flaws, but replaced Judge Halphen, with another magistrate, Armand Riberolles, who observers say may be able to resume the investigation.
Cash-for-tickets, linked to bribes on secondary school contracts: Backhander payments are also reported to have been made in return for contracts to refurbish secondary schools in the Paris region. The scheme, thought to have been put in place in the late 1980s, is said to have benefited all major political parties.
Once again, Mr Roussin and Mr Mery were implicated, leading the investigation, which opened in 1997, in Mr Chirac's direction.
In July it was revealed that large sums of cash, allegedly totalling almost 2.4m francs ($320,000), had been used to pay for trips for Mr Chirac and his family and close colleagues between 1992 and 1995. He says the money came from his personal allowances, but investigators believe it may have been one way of spending the illegal commissions.
Fake RPR jobs: This investigation, opened in 1996 by Judge Patrick Desmure, relates to fictitious jobs given to members of Jacques Chirac's RPR party by private firms - who would be granted public contracts in return - and the Paris town hall between 1988 and 1995. It is alleged Mr Chirac knew of the arrangement.
Sempap fraud: This investigation, which began in 1997 and is headed by Judges Armand Riberolles and Marc Brisset-Foucault, examines allegations of fraud and favouritism towards the Sempap company, responsible for the Paris town hall's printing requirements between 1986 and 1996 while Mr Chirac was mayor.
Can Chirac claim presidential immunity?
Under France's constitution, the president can be prosecuted during his term only for high treason and only by the High Court of Justice, which is called by parliament and is made up of 12 deputies and 12 senators.
Legal glossary
Cour de Cassation: France's highest civil and criminal court
State Council: France's highest administrative court
Constitutional Council: Rules on the constitutionality of laws and on the interpretation of the constitution
High Court of Justice: the only court able to judge a serving president
However, the constitution is silent on offences committed before the president's accession to power - in Mr Chirac's case when he was Paris mayor or heading the RPR.
A ruling by the Constitutional Council in 1999 said that even then, the president could claim immunity.
But there are no provisions in the constitution for the president appearing as a witness in legal cases. This led to extended legal wrangling as the president repeatedly ignored judges' summons to face questioning.
The Cour de Cassation gave a final ruling in October which upholds and refines the Constitutional Council's decision.
It says Mr Chirac cannot be prosecuted or called as a witness against his will during his term of office, though after that it is open season. But some believe by then - especially if Mr Chirac is re-elected in 2002 - it will be too late.
This decision so disgusted Judge Eric Halphen that he resigned from public office. He has compared Mr Chirac's actions to those of former US President Richard Nixon and said that justice did not exist in France.
What is all this doing for Mr Chirac's career?
Although he has yet to announce whether he is running for a second term, Mr Chirac is thought likely to seek re-election.
His popularity has so far not suffered in the polls and his likely opponent, Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, has not exploited the sleaze card against him.
His daughter and her former partner have already been questioned, and other close family and aides, including the first lady, may be asked to appear before the investigators.
This would be certain to create controversy but might some observers say may very well increase the sympathy vote in Mr Chirac's favour.
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Judge Drops Chirac Corruption Probe
By Elaine Ganley
Associated Press
April 26, 2001
The judge investigating a corruption scandal that appeared to be closing in on President Jacques Chirac has dropped his pursuit of the chief of state, news reports and judicial sources said Thursday. Judge Eric Halphen filed his decision Wednesday to stop pursuing the president, saying it falls outside his jurisdiction, judicial sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The sources were confirming a report that first appeared in Thursday's edition of the regional newspaper l'Est Republicain.
Halphen's decision came just a month after he had summoned the conservative president to appear as a witness in the case, which involves a kickback scheme centering on Paris City Hall when Chirac served as mayor of the French capital from 1977 to 1995. Chirac refused to appear before the judge, with his office saying the summons violated the constitutional separation of powers.
According to the French Constitution, a president is protected from being brought before judicial bodies while he is in office. But it says nothing about his answering a summons as a witness, with no charges weighing on him. Only the High Court of Justice, a special body that judges officials for crimes committed while in office, is in a position to go forward with the investigation, Halphen said, according to Le Monde newspaper.
A Socialist lawmaker, Arnaud de Montebourg, has pressed for the special court to take up the case, but there is no indication it will do so. Halphen's summons in March for Chirac to testify as a witness drew a rash of criticism from Chirac's conservative allies and injected a dose of acrimony into already tense relations between the conservative president and his Socialist prime minister, Lionel Jospin. The two men are seen as likely contenders in next year's presidential election. Halphen cited both the Constitution and the Jan. 22, 1999, decision of the Constitutional Council in his decision to keep Chirac out of the case, which he has been investigating since 1994.
The case centers on allegations that bribes were extracted from building contractors, in part to help finance Chirac's conservative Rally for the Republic party and other political parties. Some 50 people have been placed under formal investigation -- a step just short of being charged. ``There now exist indications making it probable that Jacques Chirac could have participated, as player or accomplice, in the commission of infractions,'' Le Monde quoted the judge as saying in his decision. Halphen began investigating Chirac in earnest after he was directly implicated in a videotaped account from a key figure in the case, Jean-Claude Mery, released after Mery's death. Mery's account was corroborated earlier this month by Francois Ciolina, former deputy director of the public housing office that was part of the alleged scheme. Ciolina is among those under investigation.

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M. Chirac rattrap?
LE MONDE | 31.01.04 | 11h28
LA JUSTICE a donc tranch?. Sans trembler devant les cons?quences politiques ?ventuelles de sa d?cision. C'est, en effet, une condamnation cinglante que le tribunal correctionnel de Nanterre a inflig?e ? Alain Jupp?, vendredi 30 janvier. Mais, au-del? de l'homme, c'est un syst?me qui a ?t? condamn?.
Un syst?me dont le b?n?ficiaire ?tait Jacques Chirac, alors pr?sident du RPR et maire de Paris.
M. Jupp? est donc reconnu coupable de prise ill?gale d'int?r?t dans l'affaire des emplois fictifs du RPR pris en charge frauduleusement par la Ville de Paris entre 1988 et 1995, lorsqu'il ?tait ? la fois secr?taire g?n?ral du RPR et adjoint charg? des finances ? la Mairie de Paris. L'actuel pr?sident de l'UMP ?cope de dix-huit mois de prison avec sursis. Cette condamnation entra?ne automatiquement dix ans d'in?ligibilit?, sous r?serve qu'elle soit confirm?e en appel.
Ce jugement est un r?quisitoire contre M. Jupp? (lire pages 6 ? 8), les juges n'h?sitant pas ? rappeler cruellement ? l'int?ress? que les valeurs de la R?publique sont au c?ur de l'enseignement des grandes ?coles o? il s'est form?. Mais, bien au-del? du sort de l'actuel maire de Bordeaux, c'est tout le syst?me de financement occulte du RPR gr?ce ? la Mairie de Paris durant les ann?es 1980-1990 qui a ?t? condamn? par le tribunal de Nanterre. Ainsi, tous les responsables politiques poursuivis avec Alain Jupp? sont ?galement condamn?s ? des peines de prison avec sursis allant de sept ? quatorze mois.
Le seul qui manque ? l'appel est celui qui, alors, pr?sidait le parti gaulliste et ?tait le maire de Paris : Jacques Chirac. Le jugement du tribunal de Nanterre est sur ce point sans ambigu?t? : M. Jupp?, souligne-t-il, "?tait directement subordonn? au pr?sident du mouvement". Et, comme chacun le sait, celui-l?, pr?cis?ment, est ? l'abri de la justice tant qu'il si?gera ? l'Elys?e. L'affaire dans laquelle est condamn? Alain Jupp? est, en effet, celle dans laquelle le juge Patrick Desmure avait constat? l'existence de "faits susceptibles d'?tre reproch?s ? M. Chirac ? titre personnel". Prot?g? par son statut de pr?sident de la R?publique, Jacques Chirac n'est aucunement ? l'abri de poursuites une fois qu'il aura quitt? l'Elys?e.
Au d?tour d'une petite phrase, le jugement de Nanterre ?nonce donc, clairement, ce que personne n'ignore, notamment les int?ress?s : Alain Jupp? paye pour Jacques Chirac. Si le premier est condamn? p?nalement, la justice assure sans ambigu?t? que le second est responsable moralement. Voil? le chef de l'Etat pr?venu : le jugement condamnant Alain Jupp? donne la mesure de celui qu'il pourrait subir ? son tour quand il ne sera plus ? l'abri de l'immunit? pr?sidentielle.
Le pr?sident de la R?publique est rattrap? par son pass? de chef de parti. Un pass? qui n'est pas digne de la morale r?publicaine qu'il est cens? incarner ? la place qui est la sienne. La politique ne saurait se placer au-dessus de la justice, sauf, comme le rappelle le jugement de Nanterre, ? "tromper la confiance du peuple souverain". Et, aujourd'hui que les magistrats font ?tat des intimidations dont ils auraient ?t? la cible, on voudrait ?tre certain qu'? la tromperie ne s'est pas ajout?e la barbouzerie.

* ARTICLE PARU DANS L'EDITION DU 01.02.04
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Les faits contre Jupp?
LE MONDE | 03.02.04 | 15h31
"CETTE AFFAIRE montre que la France est un pays en voie de d?veloppement d?mocratique dont les ?lus n'ont pas encore int?gr? psychologiquement l'id?e d'ind?pendance de la justice." Le propos n'est pas d'un gauchiste, mais de Dominique Barella, pr?sident de l'Union syndicale des magistrats, syndicat majoritaire et mod?r?.
Il r?sume sobrement l'invraisemblable r?action de la plupart des responsables de la droite fran?aise au lendemain de la condamnation d'Alain Jupp? ? dix-huit mois de prison avec sursis et dix ans d'in?ligibilit?, pour prise ill?gale d'int?r?t dans l'affaire des emplois fictifs de la Ville de Paris.
Le premier ministre, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, a donn? le ton en d?clarant sa "surprise" devant ce jugement "provisoire", tandis que son ministre d?l?gu? ? l'enseignement scolaire, Xavier Darcos, parlait d'une "condamnation ? mort politique". Josselin de Rohan, pr?sident du groupe UMP du S?nat, n'a pas h?sit? ? s'indigner "qu'on puisse traiter quelqu'un de cette qualit? comme un malfaiteur". Eric Raoult, vice-pr?sident de l'Assembl?e nationale, a d?nonc? ce "jugement disproportionn?, hypocrite et cynique".
Quant au pr?sident de la R?publique - th?oriquement "garant de l'ind?pendance de l'autorit? judiciaire", selon l'article 64 de la Constitution -, non seulement il n'a pas rappel? chacun au respect de la chose jug?e, mais il n'a pas h?sit?, lundi 2 f?vrier, ? louer publiquement les "qualit?s exceptionnelles" d'Alain Jupp?, notamment son "honn?tet?".
C'est peu de dire que ces d?rapages sont stup?fiants. Car enfin, les faits sont t?tus. Et, au-del? de la connotation plus morale que strictement juridique de l'un ou l'autre de ses attendus, le jugement rendu le 30 janvier ? Nanterre confirme et condamne l'existence d'un syst?me ill?gal de financement d'un parti politique - le RPR, ? l'?poque pr?sid? par Jacques Chirac et dont Alain Jupp? ?tait secr?taire g?n?ral - par la Ville de Paris, dont les deux hommes ?taient alors maire et adjoint charg? des finances.
La prise ill?gale d'int?r?t pour laquelle Alain Jupp? est condamn? est tr?s simplement d?crite ainsi par les juges de Nanterre : de septembre 1990 ? mai 1995, alors qu'il avait la charge et la responsabilit? de contr?ler et d'ordonner les d?penses aff?rentes aux employ?s de la ville, il a pr?sent? lors du vote des budgets annuels de la Ville de Paris une masse salariale comprenant les d?penses aff?rentes ? sept personnes "qu'il savait ?tre en r?alit? mises ? la disposition du RPR".
Autrement dit, pendant des ann?es, les contribuables parisiens ont pay?, sans le savoir, les salaires de permanents du RPR. Selon la formule de l'actuel maire de la capitale, Bertrand Delano? (PS), "un clan a mis la main sur la ville, sur les fonds d'une collectivit? locale ? travers des emplois fictifs". Le pr?judice, selon les services municipaux, s'?l?ve ? 1,2 million d'euros. Tels sont les faits sur lesquels Alain Jupp? et les dirigeants du RPR poursuivis ? ses c?t?s ont ?t? condamn?s.

* ARTICLE PARU DANS L'EDITION DU 04.02.04
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La majorit? sp?cule sur l'?ventuel remplacement du pr?sident de l'UMP
LE MONDE | 29.01.04 | 12h28
Personne n'en parle, mais tout le monde y pense. Et si Alain Jupp? ?tait condamn?, vendredi 30 janvier, ? une peine de dix ans d'in?ligibilit? par le tribunal correctionnel de Nanterre (Hauts-de-Seine) et se retirait de la vie politique - comme il l'a annonc? le 13 janvier ? "?a parcourt tous les esprits, mais personne ne peut imaginer qu'il mette un terme ? sa carri?re.
Ce serait v?cu comme un traumatisme consid?rable", explique Renaud Donnedieu de Vabres, l'un des porte-parole de l'UMP. "Ne serait-ce que par d?cence, je n'ose m?me pas imaginer un tel sc?nario", confie-t-il. La g?ne est si forte que la plupart des dirigeants de la droite n'acceptent d'aborder le cas Jupp? que sous couvert d'anonymat.
Comme pour conjurer le mauvais sort, nombreux sont ceux qui refusent d'envisager le pire, tandis que d'autres pronostiquent "un v?ritable tremblement de terre". "Ce 30 janvier constitue un vrai rendez-vous politique qui, pour la droite, peut avoir des cons?quences plus importantes que le r?sultat des ?lections r?gionales", redoute un des principaux chefs de la majorit?. Un proche collaborateur d'un ministre important se montre plus cat?gorique : "Jupp? condamn?, c'est la droite qui est d?capit?e", l?che-t-il, envisageant d?j? "les turbulences tr?s fortes" qui ne manqueraient pas de secouer "la chiraquie".
FRONT ANTI-SARKOZY
Les responsables de la droite n'en doutent pas : en pr?venant qu'il fera "autre chose" s'il est in?ligible, le maire de Bordeaux n'a pas prononc? une phrase en l'air et il se retirera bien de la vie politique. "Il a pes? ses mots. Il n'est pas du genre ? lancer n'importe quoi", assure Eric Woerth, d?put? de l'Oise et tr?sorier de l'UMP. Tous admettent - "pro" ou "anti" Jupp? - que le retrait du pr?sident du parti chiraquien ouvrirait une crise dont la droite sortirait ?branl?e. Cr?dible ou pas, cette situation risque d'avoir une cons?quence : d?clencher une guerre ouverte entre ceux qui r?vent de prendre les commandes d'un parti que Jacques Chirac a con?u comme une machine ? gagner l'?lection pr?sidentielle.
Deux candidats semblent en mesure de s'imposer : Nicolas Sarkozy bien s?r, que beaucoup consid?rent largement favori aupr?s des militants, et Jean-Pierre Raffarin, seul capable de rivaliser face au ministre de l'int?rieur aux yeux de plusieurs responsables. L'entourage de M. Sarkozy feint de s'interroger : "Nicolas a-t-il r?ellement envie d'y aller ?" Mais personne n'est dupe. Surtout pas les purs chiraquiens de l'UMP, qui n'ont pas de plus grand souci que d'emp?cher le num?ro deux du gouvernement de r?ussir une OPA sur le parti. Pour mener ? bien cette entreprise, certains pourraient constituer un "front du refus contre Sarkozy" regroupant tous ceux qui s'inscrivent dans cette d?marche, de Fran?ois Fillon ? Renaud Dutreil en passant par Herv? Gaymard, Xavier Darcos, Roselyne Bachelot, Philippe Douste-Blazy et quelques autres grands notables de la droite parlementaire.
Mais ? les entendre, cette option n'a donn? lieu ? aucune concertation. Comme si, finalement, l'?ventuel retrait de M. Jupp? n'avait jamais ?t? s?rieusement envisag?. Au si?ge de l'UMP, le sujet reste tabou. "Nous n'avons pas la moindre bribe d'information", jure un responsable du parti chiraquien tout en avouant "n'avoir jamais abord? la question" avec l'int?ress?.
Si l'on s'en tient aux statuts de l'UMP, le vide serait momentan?ment combl? par Jean-Claude Gaudin, vice-pr?sident de l'UMP depuis sa cr?ation, le 17 novembre 2002. Il assurerait l'int?rim jusqu'au congr?s du parti, pr?vu en novembre 2004. Pour "l?gale" qu'elle soit, cette solution permettrait surtout de parer au plus press?. "A l'UMP, tant chez les militants qu'aupr?s des cadres et des ?lus, le seul chef qui puisse esp?rer une r?elle l?gitimit? doit ? la fois rassembler les centristes, les lib?raux et les ex-RPR. Pour l'heure, le seul capable de r?soudre cette ?quation, c'est Alain Jupp?. En son absence, il n'y a que le premier ministre, chef de la majorit?, qui pourrait au pied lev? le remplacer", pr?dit ce d?put? proche de M. Chirac. Et il n'est pas le seul. "En dehors de Jupp?, il n'y a que le premier ministre pour prendre la direction du parti et le mettre en ordre de marche en vue des ?ch?ances ?lectorales du printemps", estiment de concert plusieurs membres de la commission ex?cutive du parti, selon lesquels M. Raffarin devrait, dans ces conditions, cumuler les deux fonctions.

Yves Bordenave

* ARTICLE PARU DANS L'EDITION DU 30.01.04
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Alain Jupp? "reconnu coupable", le syst?me RPR condamn?
LE MONDE | 31.01.04 | 13h19 * MIS A JOUR LE 02.02.04 | 17h15
Le pr?sident de l'UMP a ?t? condamn?, vendredi 30 janvier, ? une peine de dix-huit mois de prison avec sursis et dix ans d'in?ligibilit? dans l'affaire du financement du RPR. Il a d?cid? de faire appel. Les juges de Nanterre ont soulign? que, ? cette ?poque, il "?tait directement subordonn? au pr?sident du mouvement".
En condamnant Alain Jupp?, vendredi 30 janvier, les juges du tribunal de Nanterre (Hauts-de-Seine) ont sanctionn? un homme, mais aussi un syst?me. Justifiant par "la gravit? des faits" dont l'ancien secr?taire g?n?ral du RPR - aujourd'hui pr?sident de l'UMP - "est reconnu coupable" la peine de dix-huit mois d'emprisonnement avec sursis qui lui est inflig?e et les dix ans d'in?ligibilit? qui en d?coulent, les magistrats ont d?nonc? avec s?v?rit? les "arrangements ill?gaux" gr?ce auxquels le parti gaulliste a fait r?mun?rer son personnel par des entreprises et par la Mairie de Paris.
Le jugement, qui invoque la "soumission ? la loi" que la Constitution exige des partis politique, souligne que "la nature des faits commis est insupportable au corps social" et que M. Jupp?, qui "?tait investi d'un mandat ?lectif public", a "tromp? la confiance du peuple souverain".
Sans mettre en exergue le fait que le parti mis en cause - le RPR - et la collectivit? publique flou?e - la Ville de Paris - ?taient tous deux plac?s, au moment des faits vis?s (1988-1995), sous l'autorit? de Jacques Chirac, les juges ont d?sign? avec nettet? la responsabilit? du pr?sident de la R?publique dans les d?lits poursuivis : le jugement indique que M. Jupp? ?tait alors "directement subordonn? au pr?sident du mouvement", r?actualisant ainsi avec force la menace judiciaire qui p?se toujours sur le chef de l'Etat, mais que son immunit? et sa r??lection avaient pouss? dans l'ombre depuis deux ans.
La condamnation de M. Jupp?, dont l'avocat a annonc? qu'il ferait appel, appara?t comme l'?pilogue logique d'un proc?s qui avait pris en d?faut sa d?fense laconique et celui d'une affaire dont les d?veloppements ont, peu ? peu, encercl? le pr?sident avec son principal lieutenant.
Ouverte en 1996, l'enqu?te, men?e par le juge Patrick Desmure, a mis en ?vidence le "syst?me" instaur? de longue date par les dirigeants du RPR pour pallier l'absence de financement officiel des partis, puis, ? partir de 1988, pour en contourner les r?gles l?gales - la premi?re loi fut adopt?e cette ann?e-l?, sous un gouvernement dirig? par M. Chirac ; la plus r?cente, promulgu?e en 1995 sous le gouvernement Balladur, dont M. Jupp? ?tait membre, est celle qui pr?voit l'in?ligibilit? dont il est aujourd'hui frapp?...
R?sumant leurs d?couvertes, les enqu?teurs de la police judiciaire concluaient, dans un rapport rendu au juge le 25 mars 1999, que les malversations commises au profit du RPR "ne proc?daient pas d'initiatives imputables exclusivement ? l'encadrement interm?diaire du mouvement politique consid?r?, mais du fonctionnement d'un syst?me d?lictueux - organis? - avec l'aval de ses instances dirigeantes". Les policiers, qui estimaient le produit total des infractions ? plus de 2,4 millions d'euros, consid?raient d?s ce moment que les documents saisis - dont des courriers sign?s ou annot?s en 1993 par le futur chef de l'Etat - permettaient de "pr?sumer la connaissance du m?canisme incrimin? par le secr?taire g?n?ral du RPR et le pr?sident du RPR, Jacques Chirac".
Un mois plus tard, le juge Desmure entrait dans les annales de la Ve R?publique en ?tant le premier magistrat ? ?voquer explicitement les infractions p?nales qui pourraient ?tre reproch?es ? un chef de l'Etat en exercice si celui-ci n'?tait pr?serv? par son inviolabilit? constitutionnelle. Dans son "ordonnance d'incomp?tence" du 15 avril 1999, il constatait l'impossibilit? de le poursuivre, mais affirmait l'existence de "faits susceptibles d'?tre imput?s ? M. Chirac ? titre personnel". La Cour de cassation ayant, depuis lors, affirm? l'immunit? du pr?sident en la limitant ? la dur?e de ses fonctions, le dossier a ?t? scind? et une enqu?te distincte ouverte (officiellement contre X...) pour r?unir, l'heure venue, les charges retenues contre M. Chirac et prononcer sa mise en examen une fois qu'il ne si?gera plus ? l'Elys?e.
Dans cette perspective, la d?cision rendue vendredi, qui rappelle le lien hi?rarchique qui existait entre le chef de l'Etat et M. Jupp?, laisse peu d'incertitude quant ? l'issue de cette seconde proc?dure : le m?me tribunal pourrait-il, pour les m?mes d?lits, condamner moins s?v?rement l'homme qui pr?sidait le parti que celui qui lui ?tait "directement subordonn?"?
Ainsi, le jugement de Nanterre marque le double ?chec des calculs ?lys?ens qui visaient ? installer le favori en position d'h?ritier et ? pr?server, derri?re lui, M. Chirac des avanc?es de l'enqu?te.
D?s 1997, c'est ? l'Elys?e que s'organisa la d?fense de M. Jupp?, au lendemain de la d?faite ?lectorale qui avait caus? son d?part de Matignon. Alors secr?taire g?n?ral de la pr?sidence, Dominique de Villepin y avait constitu? une cellule informelle qui incluait l'avocat Francis Szpiner, d?fenseur de M. Jupp? et conseil de M. Chirac dans les affaires sensibles, et qui tenta de convaincre d'autres protagonistes de revendiquer seuls la responsabilit? du syst?me d?couvert. Ni Robert Galley, ancien tr?sorier du RPR, ni Michel Roussin, ancien directeur du cabinet de M. Chirac, n'ont accept? de se sacrifier - le second, mis en examen en 1998, a d'ailleurs ?t? mis hors de cause avant le proc?s.
Depuis mai 2002, l'Elys?e a continu? de veiller ? la d?fense du prot?g? du pr?sident. Le remplacement du procureur de Nanterre, Yves Bot, qui avait lanc? l'enqu?te, fut l'un des signes visibles de cette sollicitude : nomm? en f?vrier 2003, son successeur, Bernard Pag?s, a abandonn?, ? quelques mois du proc?s, la moiti? des charges retenues jusqu'alors contre M. Jupp? : celles relatives aux permanents du RPR salari?s par des entreprises. Plus discr?tement, l'in?ligibilit? m?canique qu'encourait ce dernier par les effets automatiques de la loi de 1995 y fut d?tect?e et examin?e avant l'audience. Dans ce contexte d'int?r?ts imbriqu?s, les confidences livr?es par l'ancien premier ministre au Nouvel Observateur, en novembre 2002, n'ont cess? d'alimenter les conjectures. Relatant une conversation "les yeux dans les yeux" avec M. Chirac dans la perspective d'un proc?s, M. Jupp? assurait l'avoir pr?venu en ces termes : "Je dirai ce que je crois devoir dire." Les juges de Nanterre ne s'en seront pas content?s.
Herv? Gattegno


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Le jugement pour les chefs d'entreprise
Dix-neuf chefs d'entreprise ?taient poursuivis pour abus de biens sociaux ou abus de confiance dans le proc?s des emplois fictifs du RPR, pour avoir accept? de prendre en charge les salaires de personnes travaillant exclusivement au service du mouvement gaulliste. Un grand nombre d'entre eux avaient fait valoir, pendant les d?bats, qu'ils avaient ?t? victimes d'un "chantage" de la part du RPR, qui aurait fait d?pendre l'attribution des march?s publics auxquels ils soumissionnaient de l'embauche de ces salari?s fictifs.
Parmi ces chefs d'entreprise, treize ont ?t? condamn?s ? six mois d'emprisonnement avec sursis : Christian Kerherno, Fran?ois Rosset, Bernard Forge, Jacques Petey, Yann Le Dor?, Michel Cottot, Claude Sale, Guy Barbat du Clozel, Michel David, Jean Guillou Keredan, Michel Romestain, Jean-Claude Moillard et Philippe Jung.
Six ont ?t? relax?s. Il s'agit de G?rard Moulin, Richard Cabeza, G?rard Becquet, Laurent Cohen, Knut Gross et Jean-Claude Zemmour.

* ARTICLE PARU DANS L'EDITION DU 01.02.04


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More Information on Corruption

http://www.globalcorruptionreport.org/download.shtml

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Europe de l'Ouest
Allemagne, Autriche, Belgique, Danemark, Espagne, France, Grande-Bretagne,
Gr?ce, Hollande, Irlande, Islande, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Norv?ge, Pologne,
Portugal, Su?de, Suisse
V?ronique Pujas
Vue d'ensemble
La corruption, sujet d'int?r?t public, occupe maintenant une place privil?gi?e dans le programme politique de l'Europe de l'Ouest. Il y a plus d'informations diffus?es sur la corruption, et les scandales impliquant des hommes et des partis politiques sont largement couverts par les m?dias.
Les ann?es 2001-2002 sont marqu?es par l'importance croissante accord?e par les milieux politiques et les m?dias aux questions relatives ? la transparence financi?re et ? la bonne gouvernance au sein de l'entreprise. Dans le cadre de la ? guerre contre le terrorisme ? au lendemain des attaques du 11 septembre, la lutte contre le blanchiment d'argent s'est intensifi?e. La lutte contre le crime organis? et pour le contr?le des paradis fiscaux a enregistr? des progr?s rapides dans le nouvel environnement international ; de m?me, la coop?ration entre les syst?mes judiciaires et les polices des pays de l'Europe occidentale a profit? de cet environnement favorable pour se renforcer. La faillite de la soci?t? Enron aux ?tats-Unis est l'une des principales raisons qui ont amen? la bonne gouvernance au sein de l'entreprise ? occuper la premi?re place dans le programme politique.
Les partis au pouvoir ont d? faire face ? des all?gations de corruption dans nombre de pays de la r?gion, notamment en Allemagne, en France, en Italie et au Portugal. L'impact politique de ces all?gations n'?tait pas le m?me partout ; en ce qui concerne le gouvernement allemand, il a fait ?tablir pour adoption une liste noire de la corruption avant les ?lections qui devaient se d?rouler vers la fin de l'ann?e ; quant au pr?sident fran?ais, il a ?t? r??lu en d?pit des all?gations qui ont continu? ? alimenter le d?bat sur l'opportunit? ou non de lever l'immunit? pr?sidentielle. Des all?gations de corruption en Italie ont provoqu? un long conflit entre le Premier ministre et la justice, conflit qui se poursuit encore aujourd'hui. Parall?lement, les modifications que le gouvernement Berlusconi a introduites dans la l?gislation semblent servir surtout ses propres int?r?ts tout en occultant la responsabilit? de l'ex?cutif.
306132_p099a114 1/07/03 9:55 Page 99
Le niveau de fraude et de blanchiment d'argent perp?tr? dans et ? travers les ?tablissements financiers du secteur priv? suscite une inqui?tude croissante. En Espagne, une enqu?te criminelle a ?t? ouverte pour faire la lumi?re sur un des plus grands scandales qui ait touch? le secteur bancaire europ?en depuis bien des ann?es. Partout dans la r?gion, la cr?dibilit? du secteur priv? est devenue un th?me politique central.
Malgr? la forte influence de la soci?t? civile ? travers la r?gion, peu d'ONG s'occupent sp?cifiquement de lutter contre la corruption. Et m?me si la corruption fait souvent la une des journaux, le public r?agit diff?remment. Les partis populistes ont remport? des succ?s ?lectoraux dans certains pays, en partie parce que les citoyens ont ?t? d?senchant?s par une ?lite politique corrompue.
Aux niveaux international et r?gional
En 2001-2002, les initiatives qui ont eu le plus grand impact dans la lutte contre la corruption en Europe de l'Ouest sont pour l'essentiel l'oeuvre d'institutions internationales et transnationales telles que l'Organisation de coop?ration et de d?veloppement ?conomiques (OCDE), le G8 et l'Union europ?enne (UE). Il est peut-?tre plus commode pour les ?tats individuels d'?viter d'avoir ? traiter directement les questions politiques sensibles en les d?l?guant aux institutions internationales. Le caract?re transnational de la corruption ne fait que confirmer le fait que le probl?me ne peut ?tre le plus efficacement combattu qu'en renfor?ant la s?curit? internationale et la coop?ration entre les syst?mes judiciaires. Ratifi?e par tous les ?tats membres ? l'exception de l'Irlande, la Convention de l'OCDE contre la corruption est en voie d'?tre progressivement int?gr?e dans les lois nationales, m?me si pour l'heure, seuls quelques cas de corruption font l'objet d'une enqu?te dans le cadre de cette convention. Un groupe de travail a ?t? constitu? pour assurer un suivi de la situation, et ? la premi?re phase des ?valuations, il a critiqu? l'application de la l?gislation dans plusieurs pays, obligeant les gouvernements ? amender leurs lois en accord avec la Convention. Cependant, la phase 2 du suivi qui a pour but d'examiner l'application de la Convention, a d?marr? avec une lenteur d?cevante. Les r?visions ont commenc? en 2001 et devaient ?tre men?es au rythme de sept ou huit par an ; mais dans la premi?re ann?e et demie, seules quatre r?visions ont ?t? effectu?es1. Sans l'appui des gouvernements de l'OCDE au processus de suivi, il y a de fortes chances que la Convention ne soit pas appliqu?e convenablement.
La liste noire ?tablie par le groupe d'action financi?re, qui d?signe les juridictions financi?res qui ne coop?rent pas dans la lutte contre le blanchiment d'argent, continue d'?tre une source de pression. ? la fin du mois de f?vrier 2002, les autorit?s des ?les anglo-normandes de Jersey et Guernesey ont d?cid? de collaborer avec les pays de l'OCDE en vue de renforcer la transparence de leur syst?me financier2.
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Des sept juridictions restant sur la liste des paradis fiscaux r?ticents ? coop?rer, trois sont en Europe de l'Ouest : il s'agit d'Andorre, du Liechtenstein et de Monaco3.
L'un des principaux th?mes du sommet du G8, tenu ? G?nes, en juillet 2001, ?tait ? le crime organis? transnational ?. La corruption est li?e ? un grand nombre d'autres ? crimes internationaux ? n?cessitant des interventions analogues ; la corruption, le blanchiment d'argent sale, l'immigration clandestine, le terrorisme et le crime technologique ont tous ?t? abord?s en tant que ph?nom?nes mondiaux ? combattre gr?ce ? la coop?ration internationale4. Le fait que la corruption soit trait?e comme un probl?me mondial marque un tournant d?cisif.
Les ?v?nements du 11 septembre ont renforc? la coop?ration entre le pouvoir judiciaire, la police et les services de renseignements des quinze ?tats membres de l'Union europ?enne, mais ils ont eu en partie pour corollaire de restreindre les libert?s civiques (voir acc?s ? l'information, page 111). Des mesures abord?es depuis des ann?es mais rest?es bloqu?es pour des raisons politiques et techniques sont maintenant int?gr?es dans un plan de lutte contre le terrorisme et le crime organis?. Le plan a introduit formellement la corruption dans tous les textes concern?s. Par exemple, en novembre 2001, une nouvelle directive sur le blanchiment d'argent a ?t? adopt?e ; elle oblige les ?tats membres ? combattre le blanchiment du produit de tous les crimes graves, y compris la corruption.
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L'importance des poursuites judiciaires contre les affaires de corruption, de priv? ? priv?, a re?u une grande attention m?diatique en 2001, car les tribunaux britanniques jugeaient le plus grand scandale de corruption de ces vingt derni?res ann?es. L'affaire ?tait d'autant plus importante que la d?couverte de la corruption dans le secteur priv? et sa poursuite devant les tribunaux suscitent bien moins d'int?r?t que la corruption dans la fonction publique. Il est vrai que l'Organisation de coop?ration et de d?veloppement ?conomiques (OCDE) consid?re la Grande-Bretagne comme l'un des pays qui affiche la plus grande volont? d'engager des poursuites judiciaires, mais force est de constater que moins de dix affaires de corruption, de priv? ? priv?, ont ?t? port?es devant les tribunaux en vingt ans.
On a pris toute la mesure de la corruption, de priv? ? priv?, lorsque le PDG de la soci?t? Hobson, une entreprise alimentaire, a ?t? traduit en justice pour avoir d?tourn? 2,4 millions de livres (3,8 millions de dollars am?ricains) du compte bancaire d'une filiale pour proroger un contrat lucratif avec la soci?t? ? Cooperative Wholesale Society ? (CWS). Deux responsables de la CWS ont ?t? reconnus coupables d'avoir re?u chacun des pots-de-vin d'un million de livres (1,6 million de dollars am?ricains). Ils ont ?t? condamn?s ? une peine d'emprisonnement ferme de trois ans et demi et au remboursement des pots-devin et des frais de justice. Le juge a ordonn? le report du proc?s du PDG de L'achat de contrats en Grande-Bretagne 306132_p099a114 1/07/03 9:55 Page 101 Rapport mondial sur la corruption 2003 102 Hobson, car les jur?s n'ont pas pu rendre un verdict concluant dans son cas. L'affaire sera de nouveau jug?e en janvier 2003. Les principaux faits se sont d?roul?s en 1995, date ? laquelle expirait l'accord de la soci?t? Hobson aux termes duquel il devait approvisionner 800 magasins de CWS en produits alimentaires de sa marque. Le PDG de la soci?t? Hobson, Andrew Regan, affirme avoir ?t? contact? par un homme d'affaires qui lui aurait offert de n?gocier la prorogation de l'accord par l'interm?diaire de ses contacts au si?ge de la CWS. Les 2,4 millions de livres (3,8 millions de dollars am?ricains) vers?s ? l'homme d'affaires ont ?t? imput?s au compte ? frais de courtage ?, mais le tribunal a d?couvert que l'argent ? transit? par des banques suisses avant de parvenir ? des soci?t?s implant?es aux ?les Vierges britanniques dont les propri?taires et b?n?ficiaires sont des cadres de CWS.
Les soup?ons ont commenc? lorsque l'administrateur de la soci?t? Hobson a ?t? surpris de voir que le contrat de CWS avait ?t? prorog?. Regan lui assura ? qu'il n'y avait pas de quoi s'inqui?ter. (...) Les conseillers financiers de Hobson ont consid?r? [la transaction] comme un coup ?. Quant ? l'administrateur, il n'?tait pas convaincu et a demand? qu'on enqu?te sur les 2,4 millions de livres d?pens?s en ? frais de courtage ?. Un tel proc?s comporte des difficult?s ?videntes. Il faut que la soci?t? l?s?e veuille porter plainte aupr?s de la police. Dans une affaire o? l'image de la soci?t? risque de souffrir davantage que la perte subie dans l'op?ration de corruption, il est difficile de prendre la d?cision de solliciter l'intervention de la police. En outre, les accus?s et les t?moins faisaient partie d'un r?seau d'int?r?ts conflictuels, ce qui incite peu ? rapporter certains faits ou ? engager des poursuites p?nales. Ceux des employ?s qui sont au courant des malversations et qui peuvent donc signaler des faits importants craignent d'?tre poursuivis pour complicit?. Le scandale Hobsons-CWS a co?ncid? avec les ?tapes pr?liminaires d'une r?forme globale des lois r?primant la corruption en Grande-Bretagne et dont les dispositions ont pr?s de cent ans d'?ge. La r?forme a commenc? en f?vrier 2002, avec l'int?gration de la Convention de l'OCDE dans la l?gislation britannique, ? l'instigation surtout de la Commission de s?lection de la Chambre des communes sur le d?veloppement international charg?e d'enqu?ter sur la corruption, commission au sein de laquelle Transparency International - section Royaume-Uni - a jou? un r?le d?terminant. La loi de 2001 contre le terrorisme, le crime et la s?curit? stipule que la corruption est passible de poursuites partout o? le crime est commis, aux termes des lois britanniques. La d?finition de l'infraction doit ?tre clarifi?e dans le projet de code p?nal qui ?tablira un seul d?lit de corruption avec, pour la premi?re fois, une d?finition statutaire de ? l'acte de corruption ?. Cette d?finition s'appliquera tant au secteur public que priv?. Une attention sera accord?e ? la cr?ation d'un nouveau d?lit de ? trafic d'influence ?, qui est plut?t sp?cifique au secteur priv?. On esp?re que ces am?liorations augmenteront le nombre de poursuites p?nales contre la corruption en Grande- Bretagne. Toutefois, pour qu'elles produisent un impact significatif dans le secteur priv?, elles doivent s'accompagner de la reconnaissance par tous qu'il est plus important d'?radiquer la corruption dans l'int?r?t ? long terme d'une soci?t? que de chercher ? ?viter un scandale dans le court terme.
Catherine Courtney
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Le mandat d'arr?t europ?en est une autre illustration de la nouvelle approche commune europ?enne. Introduit pour lutter contre les crimes internationaux, notamment la corruption, il remplace les proc?dures d'extradition et permet ? un mandat d'arr?t lanc? dans n'importe quel pays de l'Union europ?enne d'?tre reconnu et ex?cut? dans tous les autres ?tats membres de l'UE. Les ministres de l'Union europ?enne se sont entendus politiquement sur le mandat en d?cembre 2001, mais le processus posait probl?me. Le premier ministre italien, Silvio Berlusconi, n'a accept? de le signer que sous la forte pression des autres ?tats membres. Il s'y opposait parce que des dispositions relatives au blanchiment d'argent, ? la corruption et ? la fraude fiscale y ?taient incluses. Par ailleurs, si les Parlements doivent ratifier le mandat, cela peut retarder son entr?e en vigueur (pr?vue en janvier 2004.)
En outre, il y a une institutionnalisation progressive des organismes de lutte contre la corruption cr??s par l'UE. Europol (l'Office central de police criminelle de l'Europe) lance une politique de recrutement ? grande ?chelle et la prorogation des accords de coop?ration entre les services de renseignements des ?tats membres, alors que Eurojuste, son pendant au niveau de la justice europ?enne, a ?t? cr?? en 2001. Le bureau europ?en charg? de la r?pression de la fraude gagne en cr?dibilit? surtout apr?s avoir r?v?l?, en mars 2002, qu'il ouvrait une nouvelle enqu?te sur de possibles irr?gularit?s de proc?dures au sein des institutions europ?ennes5. Finalement, avec la Banque mondiale et le Fond mon?taire international, l'Union Eeurop?enne s'est engag?e ? introduire des strat?gies de lutte contre la fraude dans le cadre de ses programmes d'aide au d?veloppement. Le Conseil de l'Europe continue de mettre l'accent sur l'efficacit? institutionnelle des lois et institutions nationales contre la corruption, notamment ? travers le Groupe de travail des ?tats contre la corruption. La Convention p?nale sur la corruption a obtenu un nombre suffisant de ratifications (14) pour entrer en vigueur en juillet 20026. Le Conseil de l'Europe poursuit ?galement le programme OCTOPUS qui vise le renforcement de la bonne gouvernance en introduisant des dispositions contre la corruption dans les pays de l'Europe de l'Est qui demandent ? entrer dans l'Union europ?enne. La perspective de devenir membre de l'UE peut s'av?rer ?tre la meilleure incitation possible pour amener les gouvernements ? am?liorer leurs syst?mes d'int?grit?.
Le processus d'int?gration europ?enne et son impact sur la lutte contre la corruption d?pendent non seulement des politiques intergouvernementales - qui, ? leur tour, d?pendent de la volont? politique nationale - mais aussi de leur mise en oeuvre par les ?tats. Malheureusement, l'engagement est moins ?vident au niveau national. Les r?ponses ind?cises de certains ?tats aux initiatives internationales, telles que les r?ticences initiales de l'Italie ? signer le mandat d'arr?t europ?en, d?notent les r?sultats d?cevants d'un certain nombre de pays de l'Europe de l'Ouest dans leur lutte nationale contre la corruption.
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Au niveau national
L'ann?e derni?re, la lutte contre la corruption s'est vu accorder diff?rents niveaux de priorit? au sein des gouvernements de l'Europe de l'Ouest. Alors que les cas de corruption successifs au sein de l'?lite politique en Allemagne et en France alimentent les d?bats politiques dans ces pays, en Espagne la corruption ?tait moins ? l'ordre du jour puisque le public ?tait focalis? sur les activit?s du Mouvement s?paratiste basque (ETA). Les sondages effectu?s en 2001 ont permis de constater que la corruption avait moins d'importance compar?e au terrorisme, consid?r? comme un probl?me ? r?gler en priorit?7.
Les questions touchant ? la corruption au niveau national sont politiquement sensibles selon qu'il s'agit d'une ann?e ?lectorale ou non. La France ne fait pas exception ? cette r?gle, et avec les ?lections tenues entre avril et juin 2002, les m?dias se sont fait l'?cho de nombreux cas d'utilisation des fonds publics ? des fins personnelles. C'est ainsi que le pr?sident Jacques Chirac a vu beaucoup de membres de son entourage interpell?s par la justice. La p?riode en cause ?tait celle o? Jacques Chirac ?tait ? la fois pr?sident de son parti politique, le Rassemblement pour la r?publique (1976-1994), et maire de Paris (1977-1995).
Les accusations portaient notamment sur une campagne ill?gale et le financement des partis avec des pots-de-vin vers?s sur les travaux publics (l'affaire des HLM de Paris et l'affaire des lyc?es de la R?gion ?le-de-France) ; les contrats publics d'impression (l'affaire Sempap); l'utilisation de fonds municipaux de Paris pour payer les salaires du personnel travaillant pour le parti et la manipulation des listes ?lectorales pour influer sur les votes de quartier8. En 2001, les nouvelles accusations ?taient encore plus accablantes. En juillet 2001, Chirac a ?t? accus? d'utiliser la caisse noire (qui sert normalement ? financer les activit?s des services de renseignements ou les augmentations de salaires du personnel proche du Premier ministre) pour r?gler ses frais de voyages personnels9. Les accusations et le refus de Chirac de t?moigner dans la plupart des affaires susvis?es n'ont fait que cristalliser le d?bat sur la lev?e de l'immunit? pr?sidentielle et l'entrave ? la justice. Au d?but de la campagne ?lectorale de f?vrier 2002, Didier Schuller, conseiller r?gional qui a vite grimp? au sommet au sein du parti de Chirac et qui s'?tait enfui sept ans plut?t ? Saint-Domingue, suite ? des accusations de corruption, est revenu en France. Sa r?apparition a relanc? le d?bat public sur le financement ill?gal des partis politiques ; on lui reprochait d'avoir utilis? l'argent obtenu par la corruption pour financer le parti de Chirac10.
En Allemagne, ? la suite du scandale sur le financement des partis auquel l'Union d?mocratique chr?tienne est m?l?e depuis 1999, le Parti socio-d?mocrate (SPD) au pouvoir, s'est emp?tr? dans son propre scandale financier, en mars 2002. Les dirigeants du SPD ? Cologne ont ?t? accus?s d'avoir re?u d'entreprises donatrices 260 000 ? (257 000 dollars am?ricains) entre 1994 et 199911. Bien que cela date de quelques ann?es, ce scandale a permis de relever le niveau de conscience du public, la
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corruption municipale ?tant d?sormais reconnue comme syst?mique en Allemagne. Le gouvernement britannique a ?t? confront? ? une s?rie de scandales li?s au financement des partis en 2001-2002. Les m?dias ont enqu?t? sur plusieurs affaires importantes dans lesquelles des contrats gouvernementaux ont ?t? octroy?s ? des compagnies ou des d?cisions prises en leur faveur, notamment ENRON qui a fait des dons au parti travailliste au pouvoir. Il n'existe aucune preuve qui permette d'affirmer que les d?cisions gouvernementales ont ?t? directement influenc?es par ces dons, mais en essayant de se sortir de l'embarras, le parti annon?a qu'il allait mettre sur pied un comit? charg? d'enqu?ter sur tous les dons sup?rieurs ? 5 000 livres (7 800 dollars am?ricains)12. En ?cosse, le Premier ministre Henry McLeish, leader du parti travailliste du gouvernement d'alors, d?missionna en novembre 2001, accus? de d?tourner les revenus financiers du Parlement et de ne pas d?clarer ses revenus13. N?anmoins, le gouvernement britannique a fait un pas de plus que les autres pays de l'OCDE, lorsqu'il vota en f?vrier 2000, la nouvelle l?gislation contre la corruption pour se conformer ? la Convention contre la corruption de l'OCDE14. Contrairement ? la l?gislation des autres pays de l'OCDE qui d?clare ill?gale la corruption des fonctionnaires ?trangers, cette nouvelle loi d?clare ?galement ill?gal le paiement de facilitation. La Conf?d?ration des industries britanniques (CBI) a r?prouv? l'interdiction des paiements de facilitation - de petits paiements pour ? faciliter ? les services gouvernementaux de routine - pour la simple raison que cela pourrait placer les compagnies britanniques dans un d?savantage concurrentiel. Le gouvernement britannique a r?torqu? qu'il n'y avait aucune raison d'exempter de tels paiements et a fait remarquer qu'une ? culture de paiements de facilitation constitue un obstacle pour les gouvernements des autres pays qui essaient de combattre la corruption sous tous ses aspects15 ?. L'Irlande ?tait r?put?e ?tre ? l'un des pays les plus corrompus d'Europe ? dans un rapport ?tabli en avril 200216, ? la demande d'une organisation caritative bas?e en Grande-Bretagne. La publication du rapport a co?ncid? avec de longues proc?dures initi?es aupr?s des tribunaux en rapport avec une enqu?te sur les sommes vers?es aux hommes politiques irlandais, notamment l'ancien Premier ministre Charles Haughey, et des all?gations d'irr?gularit?s impliquant des personnalit?s politiques c?l?bres.
Les all?gations de corruption et de d?tournement de fonds publics mais aussi les probl?mes ?conomiques ont port? un coup fatal au Parti socialiste portugais au pouvoir pendant six ans. La crise a donn? lieu, en mars 2002, ? des ?lections g?n?rales anticip?es que le parti au pouvoir a perdues.
Bien que le niveau de corruption dans les pays scandinaves soit comparativement bas, des all?gations de corruption ont ?t? rapport?es et des scandales r?v?l?s. Au Danemark, des all?gations de d?tournement de fonds au Farum Council, une autorit? locale au nord de Copenhague, sont devenues un probl?me national surtout que le gouvernement l'avait d?crit comme un mod?le de gestion financi?re17.
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Face au nombre de scandales li?s ? la corruption dans les pays de l'Europe de l'Ouest, les gouvernements ont pris diverses mesures pour restaurer leur int?grit?, mais entre la rh?torique de la r?forme et l'efficacit? des actions entreprises il y a un foss?. Le nouveau gouvernement italien du Premier ministre Berlusconi en est une bonne illustration. Berlusconi ?tait charg? de la mise sur pied du programme de travail intitul? ? Lutte contre le crime international ? de la r?union du G8 ? G?nes, en 2001. Dans le m?me temps, alors qu'un certain nombre de ses collaborateurs et lui-m?me ?taient sous le coup d'accusations de corruption et de truquage de la comptabilit?, il transforma la lutte contre la corruption en une lutte contre les juges d'instruction. Fin 2001, le Parlement a adopt? une nouvelle loi qui a entrav? s?rieusement le travail des juges. En effet, la publication des comptes truqu?s ne constituait plus un d?lit en Italie ; ce changement d'attitude pourrait encourager fortement les activit?s de blanchiment d'argent18. Les magistrats travaillant sur les affaires de corruption et la mafia n'?taient pas encore au bout de leur peine puisque leurs escortes leur ont ?t? aussi retir?es19. Le S?nat a adopt? une r?forme du Haut Conseil de la justice, qui est dot? d'un pouvoir disciplinaire sur le judiciaire20. La r?forme changera la composition du Conseil et pourrait avoir un impact sur l'ind?pendance des juges d'instruction. En janvier 2002, le rapporteur sp?cial des Nations unies sur l'ind?pendance des juges et des avocats a lanc? un appel ? Berlusconi dans lequel il exhortait son gouvernement ? respecter les principes de base des Nations unies sur l'ind?pendance de la justice21.
L'absence de r?formes importantes dans le financement des partis politiques, et surtout l'absence d'une structure d'investigation ind?pendante de contr?le sur les proc?dures comptables des partis politiques sont des sujets qui continuent de poser le probl?me de la l?gitimit? des partis politiques en Europe de l'Ouest. Dans la plupart des pays, la r?forme de la fonction publique ?tait insuffisante dans le cadre de la lutte contre la corruption. En Allemagne, le fait que le projet de loi sur la libert? d'information ne progresse pas et la d?cision prise en 2001 de supprimer le bureau du procureur f?d?ral charg? de la justice disciplinaire pourraient r?duire les risques pour les fonctionnaires corrompus22. ? cela, il faut ajouter le fait que la plupart des pays europ?ens manquent soit de programmes de protection des t?moins, soit de strat?gie globale de protection des d?nonciateurs.
Des conflits d'int?r?ts apparaissent r?guli?rement au grand jour dans les d?mocraties de l'Europe occidentale et concernent surtout des personnalit?s politiques ayant des int?r?ts dans l'industrie priv?e. En l'occurrence, on a d?couvert r?cemment en France qu'un membre de l'Autorit? charg?e du contr?le de l'audiovisuel d?tenait une part importante du capital d'une grande agence de presse qui n'est autre que l'ancienne soci?t? Vivendi23. Cela cr?e ?galement une situation ambigu? en Italie o? Berlusconi d?tient une part importante des actions de la t?l?vision nationale. Les proc?dures de privatisation soul?vent aussi des pr?occupations du m?me ordre. Depuis 1996, la privatisation des soci?t?s de t?l?communications et
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Ces derni?res ann?es, l'Allemagne a connu des scandales financiers dans lesquels les principaux partis politiques ?taient impliqu?s. Pourtant, au printemps 2002 a ?clat? un autre scandale o? des hommes politiques de la ville de Cologneont accept? des ? dons ? de la part de soci?t?s, en ?change de contrats de construction d'une usine de traitement des ordures et d'autres projets de construction ? grande ?chelle. Mais ? y regarder de plus pr?s, on a d?couvert tout un syst?me d'octroi de pots-de-vin et de dons politiques en ?change de contrats publics. Apr?s plus de dix ans de grands scandales dans le pays, le gouvernement f?d?ral a modifi? progressivement les dispositions relatives au financement des partis ; il a, par ailleurs, soumis au Parlement plus r?cemment, en avril 2002, un projet portant ?tablissement d'une liste noire qui reprendrait les entreprises douteuses prises la main dans le sac ? distribuer des pots-de-vin, ? utiliser la main-d'oeuvre ill?gale ou m?l?es ? des entreprises de corruption. Sur cette base, le march? des contrats publics serait interdit ? ces entreprises pendant trois ans. Il appartiendrait alors au d?partement f?d?ral charg? de la gestion des contrats publics d'inscrire lesdites entreprises sur la liste noire ou de les en retirer une fois ?tabli qu'elles ont suffisamment retrouv? une ?thique de gestion.
L'Allemagne a pris des dispositions depuis le milieu des ann?es 1990, tant au niveau f?d?ral que local, pour interdire les march?s publics aux entreprises douteuses (et en tout cas criminelles.) Mais ces ? D?crets sur la pr?vention de la corruption ? qui contiennent bien des techniques de gestion des risques courants ne sont pas vraiment appliqu?s. Le nouveau projet du gouvernement sur l'?tablissement d'une liste des entreprises ? douteuses ? est le bienvenu pour renforcer la lutte contre la corruption, mais il faut que les r?gles soient appliqu?es avec plus de rigueur notamment celle qui interdit les march?s publics ? certaines entreprises. Malheureusement, le projet a rencontr? une opposition. Il a ?t? bloqu? ? deux reprises par la Chambre haute du Parlement allemand (Bundesrat) domin?e par l'opposition. Ceux qui s'opposent au projet de loi estiment que les conditions d'inscription sur la liste noire sont arbitraires, que les entreprises peuvent ?tre sanctionn?es ? tort et que certains aspects du projet de loi sont potentiellement anticonstitutionnels. Cette opposition a provoqu? une surprise g?n?rale d'autant plus que certains ?tats allemands sous administration du principal parti d'opposition avaient op?r? des listes noires similaires pendant un certain temps. Malgr? cet ?chec, les tenants de la lutte contre la corruption en Allemagne ont continu? ? exercer des pressions en faveur du maintient effectif de la liste. Il est probable que le projet de loi sera vot?, en septembre 2002, par la Chambre haute avec des amendements. L'id?al serait que pareille liste soit accessible au public, qu'elle soit g?r?e par une institution ind?pendante et qu'elle soit soutenue par les chambres de commerce et la fonction publique. Limiter l'acc?s du public ? cette liste et laisser aux seuls fonctionnaires g?rant les march?s publics le pouvoir de d?terminer les entreprises ? faire figurer sur cette liste noire revient ? cr?er d'autres possibilit?s de corruption. Par ailleurs, il faudrait des proc?dures faciles et rapides pour inscrire une entreprise sur la liste noire ; ensuite, suivrait une enqu?te pour d?terminer si les faits retenus contre l'entreprise sont suffisants pour une mise en examen. Il devrait ?tre aussi facile que
?tablissement d'une liste noire en Allemagne
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des syst?mes bancaires espagnols a suscit? de nombreuses all?gations de corruption, surtout au regard des liens ?troits unissant les directeurs des nouvelles entit?s et certains membres du gouvernement.
De nombreux pays ont fait des progr?s dans la lutte contre le blanchiment d'argent. C'est ainsi qu'en Suisse, le Bureau suisse charg? d'?tablir des rapports sur le blanchiment d'argent (MROS) a re?u, fin 2001, plus de dotations en personnel afin de renforcer son efficacit?. Un accord de coop?ration entre le MROS et son partenaire ? Monaco a ?t? rendu public en janvier 2002. En France, de nouvelles mesures de renforcement de la lutte contre le blanchiment d'argent ont ?t? prises, en mai 2001, en consolidant les P?les ?conomiques et financiers, un dispositif institutionnel qui regroupe en son sein des juges sp?cialis?s dans le crime financier et le grand banditisme. Le personnel s'est depuis plaint de l'insuffisance des effectifs24. Malgr? l'ind?pendance du judiciaire promise par les ministres fran?ais de la Justice au cours des enqu?tes portant sur les activit?s des hommes politiques, nombreux sont les juges charg?s de grands dossiers qui ont d? quitter pour diverses raisons la magistrature ou ceux appel?s ? d'autres fonctions ? la fin de 2001 et au d?but de 2002. Eva Joly qui pilotait l'enqu?te sur l'affaire Elf Aquitaine a d?missionn? de son poste comme l'avaient fait ?ric Halphen, charg? du dossier des HLM de Paris et Anne-Jos? Fulg?ras, ancienne directrice du d?partement des finances du tribunal de Paris. Laurence Vichnievsky, ancienne collaboratrice d'Eva Joly, a ?t? affect?e ? un autre poste au sein du syst?me judiciaire25. Ces d?parts ont fait beaucoup de bruit d'autant plus que les protagonistes ont publi? des livres dans lesquels ils ont exprim? des r?serves sur la lutte contre la corruption en France, en particulier, et en Europe de l'Ouest, en g?n?ral.
Le secteur priv?
En 2001-2002, la lutte contre la corruption a connu une ?volution majeure ; en effet, on est de plus en plus conscient que la corruption sape la l?gitimit? et la stabilit? des institutions et march?s financiers. La corruption n'est ?tudi?e qu'en partie, d?plorent les analystes au d?but des ann?es 1990 ; l'attention serait exag?r?ment port?e sur la dimension politique et pas assez sur les r?les des acteurs finan-
Rapport mondial sur la corruption 2003 108
rapide de retirer une entreprise de la liste noire, ? condition que celle-ci puisse prouver qu'elle est retourn?e ? une ?thique de gestion efficace. Les efforts visant ? renforcer la transparence en Allemagne pourraient se fonder sur cette liste noire. Elle inciterait les entreprises ? mettre en place une ?thique de gestion efficace, ?vitant ainsi que d'autres scandales comme celui de Cologne ne portent pr?judice ? la politique allemande.
Bj?rn Rohde-Liebenau
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ciers et ?conomiques. Mais d?sormais, la corruption fait l'objet d'une attention particuli?re, dans et ? travers les m?canismes internationaux de financement. Ces deux derni?res ann?es, un certain nombre de facteurs ont contribu? au d?veloppement de la corruption en Europe de l'Ouest. La chute des actions d'Internet ? la fin des ann?es 1990 constitue l'un de ces facteurs ; le deuxi?me facteur, ce sont les all?gations selon lesquelles il existerait des comptes secrets pour blanchiment d'argent ? Clearstream, une institution financi?re luxembourgeoise dont se servent les banques pour blanchir les transactions financi?res26. Le facteur le plus significatif a ?t? l'annonce de la faillite d'Enron ? la fin de l'ann?e 2001. L'affaire Enron a permis aux populations de prendre davantage conscience que les entreprises, les cabinets d'audit et les banques pouvaient se rendre complices pour truquer les comptes de soci?t?s et donner de fausses informations aux march?s financiers.
En Grande-Bretagne, la fraude, y compris l'enqu?te et les poursuites judiciaires, aurait co?t? au pays jusqu'? 13,8 milliards de livres (21,4 milliards de dollars am?ricains) par an. Dans le Rapport annuel 2000-2001 du Comit? consultatif sur la fraude, un organe ind?pendant cr?? par l'Institut des experts comptables de l'Angleterre et du pays de Galles, il est rapport? que la fraude commerciale est ? de plus en plus li?e ? la corruption et au blanchiment d'argent organis? par le grand banditisme27 ?.
Les enqu?tes sur la corruption ? la banque espagnole BBVA ont provoqu? l'un des plus grands scandales qui a affect? le secteur bancaire europ?en pendant des ann?es. L'enqu?te criminelle qui a d?marr?, en avril 2002, a port? sur les activit?s de la Banco Bilbao Vizcaya avant sa fusion avec la Argenteria Bank en 1999. La banque aurait d?tenu 225 millions d'euros (223 millions de dollars am?ricains) dans des comptes secrets ? Jersey, au Liechtenstein et en Suisse. Ces comptes secrets auraient servi ? favoriser la fraude, le d?tournement de fonds et le blanchiment d'argent. De l'argent qui aurait ?t? ?galement utilis? pour financer les campagnes respectives du pr?sident v?n?zu?lien, Hugo Ch?vez, et de l'ancien pr?sident p?ruvien, Alberto Fujimori. Vingt-trois anciens cadres et membres du conseil d'administration de la BBVA, qui avaient d?missionn? en cours d'ann?e, ont ?t? cit?s dans l'enqu?te men?e par le Juge Baltazar Garz?n28.
Dans une autre affaire c?l?bre en Espagne, des accusations de fraude importante dans une soci?t? charg?e de la gestion de fonds, fraude qui serait li?e au blanchiment d'argent et au versement de pots-de-vin, ont abouti ? la d?mission de la pr?sidente de la commission de la Bourse et du ministre d?l?gu? aux Finances. En effet, plus de 100 millions d'euros (99 millions de dollars am?ricains) en fonds investis dans la soci?t? Gescartera ont disparu. Des enqu?tes ont ?t? diligent?es au Parlement et au tribunal de grande instance sur une affaire qui a touch? de hauts fonctionnaires de la Bourse, du gouvernement et de l'une des plus importantes organisations caritatives d'Espagne29.
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L'indice de corruption des pays exportateurs de TI, dat? de mai 2002, a soulign? le r?le jou? par les soci?t?s multinationales bas?es en Europe de l'Ouest dans la corruption au niveau des pays en d?veloppement (voir page 351). L'indice a indiqu? que les industries d'armement et de construction ?taient le plus souvent les principales sources de pots-de-vin vers?s par les soci?t?s des pays exportateurs30. Plusieurs soci?t?s multinationales de construction, notamment les soci?t?s anglaises, fran?aises, allemandes, italiennes et suisses risquent des poursuites judiciaires dans le cadre de l'enqu?te en cours contre le ? Lesotho Highland Development Authority ?.
Si l'affaire du Lesotho est un exemple rare dans lequel une soci?t? europ?enne est poursuivie pour corruption dans le cadre de la l?gislation nationale d'un pays en d?veloppement, l'int?gration progressive de la Convention contre la corruption de l'OCDE dans les l?gislations nationales des pays est en voie de faire de la corruption ? l'?tranger une entreprise de plus en plus risqu?e. Et pourtant, l'indice de corruption r?v?le ?galement que la sensibilisation ? la Convention de l'OCDE est en progression. La sensibilisation massive passe par une coop?ration accrue entre les journalistes d'investigation des pays en d?veloppement, les ONG et les procureurs g?n?raux des pays de l'OCDE.
Certaines soci?t?s de l'Europe de l'Ouest sont plus impliqu?es dans la lutte contre la corruption, en partie, pour r?agir ? la Convention de l'OCDE. En Allemagne, la soci?t? des chemins de fer, Deutsche Bahn, a reconnu, en d?cembre 2001, que ses propres investigations ont identifi? plus de 200 cas de corruption. Il y avait suffisamment de preuves dans 25 de ces cas pour transmettre les r?sultats aux procureurs31. Un mois plus t?t, les procureurs de Frankfurt avaient annonc? qu'un ancien chef du d?partement de l'approvisionnement ? la Deutsche Bahn avait ?t? arr?t? pour corruption, en m?me temps que trois des directeurs d'une soci?t? fournisseur32. Dans le cadre de sa lutte pour ?radiquer la corruption et suivant les conseils de Transparency International Allemagne, la Deutsche Bahn a nomm? son propre m?diateur contre la corruption ; celui-ci devra travailler en collaboration avec les procureurs.
La soci?t? civile
Le travail de sensibilisation a peu ?voqu? la question de la corruption en Europe de l'Ouest malgr? l'importante pr?sence de la soci?t? civile. Cette d?saffection pour la corruption se retrouve dans les dossiers des sections nationales de Transparency International dans la r?gion, dont l'importance est l'exception plut?t que la r?gle. Un certain nombre d'ONG de la r?gion font n?anmoins campagne sur des questions ayant un int?r?t g?n?ral pour la lutte contre la corruption dont notamment la libert? d'information et la r?glementation des march?s financiers.
Rapport mondial sur la corruption 2003 110
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Il existe d?sormais, dans la plupart des pays occidentaux, des lois donnant au public un droit g?n?ral d'acc?s aux documents des administrations publiques. Le devoir de transparence s'?tend aux institutions de l'Union europ?enne1. Les m?diateurs europ?ens ont fait un certain nombre de d?clarations en 2001 dans lesquelles ils ont reproch? aux organes de l'Union europ?enne de ne pas divulguer les informations. Lesdits documents comportent un rapport dans lequel il est reproch? au Conseil des ministres d'avoir refus? de donner libre acc?s ? des documents traitant de la justice et des affaires nationales. C'est ainsi qu'une nouvelle r?glementation europ?enne sur l'acc?s du public aux documents de l'Union europ?enne est entr?e en vigueur, en d?cembre 2001. Par ailleurs, le Comit? des ministres du Conseil de l'Europe a fait circuler des recommandations en f?vrier 2002 sur la l?gislation relative ? la libert? d'information2.
Deux pays, l'Allemagne et la Suisse, font exception dans la r?gion ? l'image g?n?ralement positive de la l?gislation sur la libert? d'information, car aucun de ces pays n'a vot? des lois nationales sur la libert? d'information. Le projet de loi introduit au Parlement en Allemagne en 2001 a ?t? bloqu? suite ? l'opposition de l'administration et du secteur des entreprises. Quatre des seize ?tats f?d?raux allemands ont adopt? la l?gislation sur la libert? d'information, mais avec des dispositions restrictives ; cependant, beaucoup d'?tats f?d?raux (notamment la Bavi?re, la Hesse et la Saxe) ont vot?, l'ann?e derni?re, contre les lois sur la libert? d'information. Le Parlement suisse s'est prononc? en faveur de l'introduction de la l?gislation sur la libert? d'information, et une consultation publique sur la question a ?t? organis?e en mars 2001. Le public ?tait en g?n?ral pour le droit ? l'acc?s ? l'information m?me si quelques r?serves ont ?t? ?mises, notamment par les entreprises publiques qui craignaient la perte de comp?titivit?. Des d?bats sont toujours en cours sur le projet de lois3. En Grande-Bretagne, le gouvernement a mis du temps ? appliquer la loi sur la libert? d'information, adopt?e en 2000. En novembre 2001, il a annonc? que le droit g?n?ral du citoyen ? l'information n'entrerait en vigueur qu'en 2005. Pour la p?riode allant jusqu'en 2005, un calendrier a ?t? mis au point pour que les pouvoirs publics fassent conna?tre leurs ? plans de divulgation ? ; ces plans doivent syst?matiquement d?finir la programmation de la diffusion des informations4. La r?ticence de ces gouvernements tranche avec la rapidit? et la vigueur des mesures prises fin 2001 dans les pays de l'Europe de l'Ouest, au lendemain des attaques du 11 septembre. La capacit? des gouvernements ? contr?ler l'information de la presse et ? utiliser la surveillance ?lectronique a ?t? renforc?e. Les services de renseignements et de police ont un libre acc?s au courrier personnel et aux services ?lectroniques des fournisseurs d'acc?s, et les renseignements personnels rassembl?s par les autorit?s comp?tentes sont d?sormais conserv?s dans un dossier pendant une p?riode plus longue. On peut se demander si les nouvelles dispositions contre la corruption, mises en place dans beaucoup de pays europ?ens, ne vont pas entraver les libert?s, mais aussi l'acc?s ? l'information. Entre-temps, la libert? de la ligne ?ditoriale et le journalisme d'investigation sont menac?s par la crise profonde que traversent la radiodiffusion et la t?l?vision dans beaucoup de pays de
l'Europe de l'Ouest ; en effet les
Rapports r?gionaux Europe de l'Ouest 111
L'acc?s ? l'information dans les pays de l'Europe occidentale
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Ce n'est pas parce que les m?dias se sont particuli?rement int?ress?s aux scandales de corruption et que les journalistes se sentent de plus en plus ? habilit?s ? ? mener des enqu?tes sur les hommes politiques que le journalisme d'investigation re?oit davantage de ressources. Toutefois, l'int?r?t manifest? par les m?dias est loin d'?tre le m?me ; par exemple, beaucoup de journalistes fran?ais ?taient r?ticents ? enqu?ter sur la corruption politique et cela tranche avec le style de journalisme autoritaire et controvers? pratiqu? dans certains autres pays d'Europe occidentale. ? preuve, la d?saffection manifeste des m?dias fran?ais pour la responsabilit? financi?re au niveau politique pendant la campagne ?lectorale de 2002. Les hommes politiques se servent souvent des accusations de corruption comme outil politique, et profitent ainsi de l'int?r?t que les m?dias leur portent ; mais cette pratique peut, au contraire, finir par rendre le public sceptique. La corruption qui touche les hommes politiques et l'instrumentalisation des all?gations de corruption a non seulement fait perdre confiance au gouvernement et sap? la l?gitimit? des partis politiques et de leurs dirigeants, mais elles ont fini par entra?ner une d?saffection progressive du public ? l'?gard de la politique. S'agissant des ?lections, il y a eu des r?actions mitig?es devant le nombre d'articles parus dans la presse sur des scandales li?s au versement ou ? l'accepta-
Rapport mondial sur la corruption 2003 112
principales cha?nes de radiodiffusion et de t?l?vision publiques et priv?es doivent se battre pour pr?server l'ind?pendance de la r?daction. En Italie, le Premier ministre poss?de trois des plus grandes cha?nes de t?l?vision priv?es et, en sa qualit? de chef du gouvernement, il contr?le ?galement les trois cha?nes publiques5. En France, une douzaine de journalistes ont ?t? poursuivis en 2001 pour avoir publi? des articles d'enqu?te sur les affaires d'int?r?t public, notamment les scandales politiques et les questions sur les violations de la ? pr?somption d'innocence6 ?.
S'agissant de la cyber-administration, beaucoup d'administrations centrales et locales ont soutenu la r?volution num?rique ; elles publient sur Internet, pour le compte des services gouvernementaux, un nombre consid?rable de documents tir?s de publications et de bases de donn?es. Des sites Internet officiels et des services de cyber-administration sont, en g?n?ral, plus d?velopp?s dans les pays de l'Europe du Nord que dans ceux du Sud7. Les Prix de l'Europe ?lectronique pour l'innovation dans la cyber-administration ont ?t? lanc?s en novembre 2001. Leur objectif est de mettre en relief et de promouvoir les efforts r?alis?s par les administrations europ?ennes aux plans national, r?gional et local dans l'utilisation de la technologie de l'information pour am?liorer la qualit? et l'accessibilit? des services publics.
1 www.privay_international.org/issues/foia/foiasurvey.
html.
2 cm.coe.int/Stat/E/Public/2002/adapted_texts/
recommendations/.
3 www.ofj.admin.ch/themen/affprinzip/intro_d.htm.
4 www.lcd.gov.uk/foi/imprp/amrep 01.htm.
5 Economist (Grande-Bretagne), 25 avril 2002.
6 www.ifex.org.
7 europa.en.int/information_society/eeurope/.
index_en htm.
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tion de pots-de-vin et ? d'autres formes de corruption. Les partis populistes tels que le Lega Nord en Italie (membre du gouvernement de coalition de Berlusconi) et le Front national en France (dont le leader, Jean-Marie le Pen, ?tait face ? Chirac au second tour des ?lections pr?sidentielles) ont tir? profit des votes de protestation contre la corruption au sein de l`?lite politique. Parce qu'ils ont en partie critiqu? les hommes politiques ?lus pour leur sens peu ?lev? de la morale, ces partis ont obtenu un soutien accru lors des r?centes ?lections. Mais ? l'?vidence, nombreux sont les citoyens qui ne se sont pas servis de leurs votes pour sanctionner les hommes politiques impliqu?s dans des affaires de corruption, comme en t?moignent l'?lection de Berlusconi en Italie, en mai 2001, et la r??lection du pr?sident Chirac en France, en avril 2002.
En Italie, les grandes manifestations qui ont eu lieu, en f?vrier 2002, ont permis d'?valuer le niveau de soutien ? la croisade contre la corruption, lanc?e dans les ann?es 1990, contre l'?lite politique impliqu?e dans la corruption syst?mique. Malgr? la forte connotation politique donn?e ? ces organisations et rassemblements par une forte pr?sence des militants de partis d'opposition, ils ?taient organis?s pour marquer le d?saccord des citoyens avec la fin de la politique Mani Pulite (mains propres) qui avait suscit? l'espoir de voir se mettre en place un nouveau syst?me politique non corrompu. Quarante mille personnes ont assist? ? une manifestation ? Milan33. Malheureusement, la campagne lanc?e par le Premier ministre Berlusconi contre les juges d'instruction ayant accumul? plusieurs dossiers contre lui, a ?t? renforc?e par sa victoire aux ?lections g?n?rales de 2001 qu'il a remport?es avec une large majorit? des voix.
Les organisations de la soci?t? civile elles-m?mes sont accus?es de corruption. Au Danemark, le pr?sident des employ?s de l'industrie, au sein du syndicat g?n?ral des travailleurs et du Fonds de retraite, Willy Strube, s'est suicid? apr?s avoir ?t? accus? d'utiliser les ressources financi?res du syndicat ? des fins personnelles34.
1 Les rapports par pays sur l'implantation de la Convention anti-corruption de l'OCDE (les deux
phases de surveillance ) sont disponibles sur le net au site www.oecd.org/EN/document/o,,EN
-document -88-3-no-3-16889-88,00.htlm.
2 www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/648/Guernsey_and_jersey_commit_to_cooperate_
with_the oecd_to_address_harmful_tax_practices.html.
3 www.oecd.oecd.org/EN/document-22-nodirectorate-no12-28534-22,FF.html.
4 www.7.utoronto.ca/g7/evaluations/2001 gensa.
5 Le Monde (France), 2 mars 2002.
6 conventions.coe.int/Treaty/EN/Cadreslistetraites.htm.
7 www.cis.es/baros/mar2429.htm.
8 Le Monde (France), 29 mars 2002.
9 Le Monde (France), 4 juillet 2001.
10 Guardian (Grande-Bretagne), 6 f?vrier 2002.
11 Le Monde (France), 9 mars 2002.
12 BBC News, 22 mai 2002.
13 Guardian (Grande-Bretagne), 9 novembre 2001.
14 La l?gislation a ?t? introduite comme une partie de la loi de 2001 contre le terrorisme, le crime et la
s?curit?.
Rapports r?gionaux Europe de l'Ouest 113
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Posted by maximpost at 3:55 PM EST
Permalink
Wednesday, 4 February 2004

>> SIX-WAY TALKS...IF YOU MEET THE BUDDHA KILL HIM!
-----------------------------------------------
CIA Chief to Correct 'Misperceptions' on Iraq WMD

Feb 4, 4:49 PM (ET)

By Tabassum Zakaria
By Tabassum Zakaria
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - CIA Director George Tenet plans to try and correct what he considers "misperceptions" about prewar intelligence on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction in his first public appearance since fresh controversy erupted over the issue, an intelligence official said on Wednesday.

In a speech at Georgetown University on Thursday, Tenet will "correct some of the misperceptions and downright inaccuracies concerning what the intelligence community reported and did not report regarding Iraq," the U.S. intelligence official said on condition of anonymity.

"He will point out it is premature to reach conclusions," the official added.

The furor over whether Iraq possessed banned weapons before the U.S.-led war, flared again recently after former chief U.S. weapons inspector David Kay said he believed there were no large stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons in Iraq.

Kay, who was appointed by Tenet, had led the hunt since June for evidence of banned weapons and an active program to build nuclear weapons -- the centerpiece for the U.S. decision to launch a pre-emptive invasion of Iraq last year.

After resigning in late January, Kay said the WMD search team had found probably 85 percent of what there was to found in Iraq.

His blunt comments that prewar intelligence on Iraq had been wrong bolstered calls for an independent inquiry and prompted the White House to agree to set up a commission to investigate the intelligence.

Tenet is expected to reject some of the criticisms that have been leveled at the intelligence agencies.

"People who have leaped to the conclusion that the intelligence was all wrong simply aren't right," the intelligence official said. "Those who say the search for WMD is 85 percent finished are 100 percent wrong."

Tenet plans to echo what other administration officials and congressional Republicans have been saying -- that it is premature to reach firm conclusions.

"He's going to make the point that in the search for WMD, there is still plenty of work that needs to be done on the ground before any conclusions should be reached," the intelligence official said.

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld defended the war in testimony to congressional committees on Wednesday and held out the possibility that the team still hunting for banned weapons in Iraq eventually might find them.

He said the intelligence agencies had a "tough assignment" trying to crack closed societies and avoid surprises from threats that can emerge suddenly.

Rumsfeld noted that when the intelligence agencies fail "the world knows it. And when they succeed, as they often do to our country's great benefit, their accomplishments often have to remain secret."

Rumsfeld said he hoped Tenet would make some of the recent successes public "so that the impression that has and is being created of broad intelligence failures can be dispelled."

Tenet is expected to talk about the "difficulties and complexities" of intelligence work, where it is unusual to have a complete picture but fragments of information must be pieced together. He also plans to discuss proliferation issues in other countries, the intelligence official said.




>> 6WT

>> IF YOU MEET THE BUDDHA KILL HIM!!!!

------------------------------------------------------------------------
AP Exclusive: Kerry Blocked Law, Drew Cash
Wed Feb 4, 5:14 PM ET
By JOHN SOLOMON, Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON - A Senate colleague was trying to close a loophole that allowed a major insurer to divert millions of federal dollars from the nation's most expensive construction project. John Kerry (news - web sites) stepped in and blocked the legislation.
Over the next two years, the insurer, American International Group, paid Kerry's way on a trip to Vermont and donated at least $30,000 to a tax-exempt group Kerry used to set up his presidential campaign. Company executives donated $18,000 to his Senate and presidential campaigns.
Were the two connected? Kerry says not.
But to some government watchdogs, the tale of the Massachusetts senator's 2000 intervention, detailed in documents obtained by The Associated Press, is a textbook case of the special interest politicking that Kerry rails against on the presidential trail.
"The idea that Kerry has not helped or benefited from a specific special interest, which he has said, is utterly absurd," said Charles Lewis, head of the Center for Public Integrity that just published a book on political donations to the presidential candidates.
"Anyone who gets millions of dollars over time, and thousands of dollars from specific donors, knows there's a symbiotic relationship. He needs the donors' money. The donors need favors. Welcome to Washington. That is how it works."
The documents obtained by AP provide a window into Kerry's involvement in a two-decade-old highway and tunnel construction project in his home state of Massachusetts. Known as the "Big Dig," it had become infamous for its multibillion dollar cost overruns.
Kerry's office confirmed Wednesday that as member of the Senate Commerce Committee he persuaded committee chairman John McCain, R-Ariz., to drop a provision that would have stripped $150 million from the project and ended the insurance funding loophole.
The Massachusetts Democrat actually was angered by the loophole but didn't want money stripped from the project because it would hurt his constituents who needed the Boston project finished, spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter said.
When the "AIG investment scheme (came) to light, John Kerry called for public hearings to investigate the parties involved and the legality of the investment practices. However, he firmly believed cutting funding for the Big Dig was not the answer," Cutter said.
Instead of McCain's bluntly worded legislation, Kerry asked for a committee hearing in May 2000. Kerry thanked McCain at the start of the hearing for dropping his legislation and an AIG executive was permitted to testify that he believed the company's work for the Big Dig was a good thing even though it was criticized by federal auditors.
"From the perspective of public and worker safety and cost control, AIG's insurance program has been a success," AIG executive Richard Thomas testified.
Asked why Kerry would subsequently accept a trip and money from AIG in 2001 and 2002 if he was angered by the investment scheme, Cutter replied: "Any contributions AIG made to the senator's campaign came years after the investigation. Throughout his career, John Kerry has stood up to special interests on behalf of average Americans. This case is no different."
The New York-based insurer, one of the world's largest, declined to comment on its donations to Kerry, simply stating, "AIG never requested any assistance from Senator Kerry concerning the insurance we provided the Big Dig."
The project has become a symbol of government contracting gone awry, known for its huge cost overruns that now total several billion dollars, and its admissions of mismanagement.
During the 1990s, Sens. Kerry and Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., helped win new federal funding for the project as its costs skyrocketed and threatened to burden the state's government. In 1998, Kerry was credited with winning $100 million in new federal funding.
But in 1999, the Transportation Department uncovered a financing scheme in which the project had overpaid $129.8 million to AIG for worker compensation and liability insurance that wasn't needed, then had allowed the insurer to keep the money in a trust and invest it in the market. The government alleged AIG kept about half of the profits it made from the investments, providing the other half to the project.
Outraged by the revelations, McCain submitted legislation that would have stripped $150 million from the Big Dig and banned the practice of allowing an insurer to invest and profit from excessive premiums paid with government money.
"Any refunds of insurance premiums or reserve amounts, including interest, that exceed a project's liabilities shall be immediately returned to the federal government," McCain's legislation declared.
But Kerry and Kennedy intervened, and McCain withdrew the legislation in 2000 in favor of the hearing.
At that hearing, the Transportation's Department inspector general made a renewed plea for a permanent federal policy banning the overpayment of insurance premiums and subsequent investment for profit -- what McCain had proposed and Kerry helped kill.
"The policy is needed to ensure that projects do not attempt to draw down federal funds for investment purposes under the guise that they are needed to pay insurance claims. It is that simple," the inspector general told senators.
In September 2001, Kerry disclosed to the Senate ethics office that AIG had paid an estimated $540 in travel expenses to cover his costs for a speech in Burlington, Vt.
A few months later in December 2001, several AIG executives gave maximum $1,000 donations to Kerry's Senate campaign on the same day. The donations totaled $9,700 and were followed by several thousand dollars more over the next two years.
The next spring, AIG donated $10,000 to a new tax-exempt group Kerry formed, the Citizen Soldier Fund, to lay groundwork for his presidential campaign. Later in 2002, AIG gave two more donations of $10,000 each to the same group, making it one of the largest corporate donors to Kerry's group.
The insurer wasn't the only company connected to the Big Dig to donate to Kerry's new group. Two construction companies on the project -- Modern Continental Group and Jay Cashman Construction -- each donated $25,000, IRS records show.
Rep. James McGovern, D-Mass., a Boston area lawmaker, credited Kerry for getting McCain's legislation blocked in favor of a hearing, saying Massachusetts lawmakers "were on the side of good government here but also concerned the language might go too far and put more of a burden on a Massachusetts project."

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That Was Then
Deficit reduction worked for Clinton, but circumstances were different in 1993. Today's Democrats mustn't think they can merely mimic him.
By Joseph E. Stiglitz
Issue Date: 2.1.04
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We live in an upside-down world where Republicans defend deficits and Democrats attack them. These are seemingly opposite views. But both have led, mistakenly, to cuts in social investment as well as to needlessly slow economic growth and high unemployment.
For years Republicans tried to slay Keynesian economics, the idea that in an economic downturn, one should run deficits. During the Clinton years, they even pushed for a balanced-budget amendment to the Constitution, which would have enshrined the principles of fiscal prudence (and precluded the Bush deficits). In those years, the Democrats were accused of being fiscally irresponsible because they sensibly believed that in times of recessions, a deficit was good policy.
All of this has changed. Ronald Reagan, of course, did run huge deficits, but that was supposedly a mistake. In his "voodoo" economics, tax cuts were supposed to somehow generate more tax revenues, so there was not supposed to be a deficit. Under George Bush Senior, taxes were raised to correct Reagan's error. But George W. Bush unabashedly defends huge, endless deficits.
As a form of economic stimulus, all deficits are not created equal. The economy may be temporarily booming, but Bush's tax cuts were not designed primarily to provide an effective stimulus but, rather, to reduce taxes, mainly on the wealthy, as an end in itself. But tax cuts for the poor, or better unemployment benefits, are far more effective in stimulating the economy. Public investment -- in, say, roads, airports, education or technology -- would have provided much more stimulus in the short run and enhanced America's productivity in the long run.
The new Republican economic logic also insists that prolonged deficits do not produce significant increases in interest rates. This logic defies the usual laws of supply and demand, in which an increase in demand (here the demand for funds by the government) leads to an increase in price (here the interest rate). Accordingly, by this logic even enormous and structural deficits do not adversely affect growth. This view is nonsense, but Democrats make a mistake when they respond by embracing the old Republican role of deficit hawks. In a downturn, tax revenues normally decrease, so deficits increase. During a recession, therefore, it makes sense to tolerate and even to increase these deficits, to stimulate economic activity and recovery.
But the new Democratic recipe is something along the lines of, "Reduce the deficit and economic prosperity will be restored." Emboldened by the seeming success of that formula in the early 1990s, and the seeming failure of the opposite strategy by Bush, many Democrats believe fiscal prudence will cure both the economy and their fiscal reputation. But, unfortunately, the wrong lessons have been drawn from both experiences.
Deficit reduction under Bill Clinton worked, both because of the peculiar circumstances of the time and because of the way it was carefully crafted. For a variety of reasons -- including regulatory mistakes that contributed to the economic recession in the first place -- banks had larger than normal portfolios of long-term government bonds. So the lowering of long-term interest rates -- which increases the price of long-term bonds -- effectively recapitalized the banking system, leading to new lending. Normally deficit reduction dampens the economy. But Clinton's carefully designed deficit reduction program was heavily backloaded (to bite after a strong recovery was well under way). Moreover, the 1993 tax increase was targeted at the rich. On both counts, aggregate demand in the short run was not reduced much.
Conversely, Bush's backloaded tax cuts, taking effect years down the road, lead the market to anticipate far larger deficits in the future, so medium- and long-term interest rates must rise relative to short-term treasury bills, partially undoing the Federal Reserve's original efforts to lower interest rates. The lesson: While deficit increases normally stimulate the economy, it is possible to design ones badly enough that they do not provide much stimulus. The economy may have a good quarter or two, but sooner or later the money markets will catch on and bid up rates. And with that, the nascent recovery may falter.
Today the economy is growing again, but it's not producing enough jobs. Bush's presidency will likely be the first since Herbert Hoover's with a net loss of jobs. The economy needs millions of new jobs just to keep up with the new entrants into the labor force. And it is not just that jobs are not being created; employed people are also working less. The United States is out of recession but still far from its potential. Huge amounts of resources are being wasted, and millions of people are suffering as a result.
Bush's defense is that he inherited a downturn; were it not for his tax cuts, he says, matters would have been even worse. That would be true, if Bush's tax cuts were our only choice. But they are not. Alternative policies would have helped more, making the downtown shallower and shorter and the recovery stronger. Indeed, it is hard to imagine such a large set of tax cuts that could have done less to stimulate the economy.
By early 2001, it was clear that the economy was facing a significant and potentially prolonged downturn. (This is not just a matter of Monday-morning quarterbacking; others and I wrote this at the time. I even tried to speak to Bush about it at a White House reception for Nobel laureates, but he was distinctly uninterested.)
We should have had tax cuts and expenditure increases targeted to where the money would be spent, and spent quickly: increased benefits for the unemployed, tax cuts for the poor, investment tax credits (just to those firms that make investments), and aid to the states and localities that would shortly be facing severe budgetary shortfalls, forcing cutbacks in expenditures or increases in taxes.
The badly designed tax cuts put an increasing burden on the Fed to keep the recovery going. But the Fed's rate cuts have worked mainly by inducing households to refinance their mortgages, taking on greater and cheaper debt. This has left the economy in a precarious position. The higher indebtedness may make a robust recovery all the more difficult, for normally as recovery sets in, interest rates rise. Debt burdens are manageable today only because of the low interest rates. There is a further risk that rising interest rates could not only squeeze consumption but also bring on a fall of real-estate prices, further dampening the recovery.
Had Bush's tax cuts been fairer and aimed more at stimulating the economy, the recovery would have occurred earlier and been far stronger; today the Fed would have had further room to maneuver, with fewer risks to our economic future.
Where does this leave the Democrats? The soaring Bush deficits are an easy target. They are a cause of concern. But the danger is that the Democrats will focus excessively on deficit reduction, thereby not only impairing the ability to maintain the economy at full employment but also reducing prospects for long-term growth. The simple fallacy is that government expenditures cause deficits, deficits force higher interest rates and higher interest rates crowd out private investment, which is the key to long-term growth. But much government expenditure also underwrites investment. And if public investment is starved, growth, too, can be impaired. Studies by the Council of Economic Advisers show that the returns on public investments, such as in education and research and development, are very high -- far higher than the returns on much private investment that was crowded out and certainly higher than the investments in the excess capacity of fiber optics, telecommunications and dot-coms.
The financial markets' focus on deficits is another piece of evidence of their shortsightedness -- and another example of the need for better accounting. One needs to look not just at liabilities (what the government owes) but at assets. A deficit in our infrastructure can be even more harmful than a financial one. And these public investments -- in education and in the environment -- are necessary for sustainable growth with equity.
Some say that Bush created the huge deficits to squeeze government, to force cuts in public investments and social programs. Democrats who focus excessively on deficit reduction are falling precisely into the trap, especially when political timidity impedes reversing the tax cuts.
It is true that increasing debt burdens -- both to government and to households -- have put our country's future at risk, a risk for which there is little compensating reward. Our looming problems -- inequality and an aging population with increasing demands on Social Security and Medicare -- have only been made worse. The cure will entail a far bolder program than just another bout of deficit reduction.
Joseph E. Stiglitz
Copyright ? 2004 by The American Prospect, Inc. Preferred Citation: Joseph E. Stiglitz, "That Was Then," The American Prospect vol. 15 no. 2, February 1, 2004 . This article may not be resold, reprinted, or redistributed for compensation of any kind without prior written permission from the author. Direct questions about permissions to permissions@prospect.org.

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Robert Rubin's Contested Legacy
The High Cost of Rubinomics
By Jeff Faux
Issue Date: 2.1.04
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In an Uncertain World: Tough Choices From Wall Street to Washington By Robert Rubin and Jacob Weisberg, Random House, 448 pages, $35.00
If a Democratic president gets to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan when the latter's term is up in 2006, Bob Rubin is the odds-on favorite. He has the financial credentials: Goldman-Sachs, U.S. Treasury, CitiGroup. He raises money for Democrats. And he is credited with the one accomplishment of the Clinton era that all Democrats are proud of: eight years of peacetime economic growth that, by 2000, had produced something pretty close to full employment.
As Rubin tells the story in his new memoirs, he persuaded Clinton early on to make financial-market "confidence" the administration's chief economic priority. Key to the strategy was Greenspan, who was supposedly concerned that spiraling federal deficits would ignite inflation, forcing him to raise interest rates and thus choke off growth. Cut the deficit, argued Rubin, and Greenspan will let the economy live.
Clinton was an easy sell. He not only reduced the deficit but also went on to balance the budget, run a surplus and, by the end of his term, put the federal government on a path toward eliminating the entire national debt. Along the way, he embraced large parts of Wall Street's agenda: free trade, privatization and the deregulation of finance, energy and telecommunications. In turn, Greenspan kept rates low.
So Rubin's plan worked, but the cost was high. Hopes that the peace dividend from the end of the Cold War would finance major new programs in health care, education and other areas of public need were dashed. Social investments as a share of the country's national income actually declined over the Clinton years. Fights over free trade split the party and contributed to the loss of the House of Representatives, from which Democrats have still not recovered. And deregulation led to an orgy of irresponsible speculation and fraud that eventually left workers without pensions, small-scale shareholders with worthless paper and California -- among other places -- without the money to pay for basic services.
While the party lasted, Rubin and Greenspan were the toasts of Wall Street. They watched benignly (with an occasional "tut-tut" from the chairman) as mindless speculation overheated the stock market way beyond the boiling point of 1929. According to Greenspan, inflation was no longer a problem because the end of the era of coddling by big government had made workers more anxious about their jobs and less apt to demand higher wages. At the same time, he and Rubin kept anxiety from discomforting the markets by rolling out the safety net for financiers who bet wrong on Mexican bonds and the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund. Indeed, Rubin spent much of his term as treasury secretary shuttling from crisis to crisis, organizing, often brilliantly, rescue packages for capital-market failures around the world.
He missed some. Russia defaulted despite his best efforts. And neither he nor Greenspan faced the rising U.S. trade deficit that, by the end of his watch, made our high consumption economy perilously dependent on foreign lenders.
Still, more than 20 million jobs were created. At the end of the decade, people who 10 years earlier had been written off as "unemployable" were working, and, for a few quarters before the crash, employers were actually bidding up the wages of people making $7 an hour.
So, honest liberals might have different answers to the question, was the "trade off" worth it? But there is a prior question: Was it necessary?
Some deficit reduction was reasonable. After all, a fiscal deficit that was rising faster than income is ultimately unsustainable. But the Clinton-Rubin buy-in to a 19th-century Republican economic agenda was clearly over the top. As Clinton economists Joseph Stiglitz, Alan Blinder and Janet Yellen, among others, have pointed out, the sustained growth of the past decade was largely generated by a perfect storm of favorable factors, including the spread of Internet technology, low energy prices and a temporary slowdown in health-care costs.
The clearest answer came from Alan Greenspan himself. A few days after the election of George W. Bush, Greenspan endorsed Bush's massive tax cut, which not only wiped out the surplus the Democrats had so painfully built up but quickly put the government back in the red. It turns out that the ideologically conservative Greenspan had used the deficit scare as a way to stop Clinton from social spending. When the Republicans came back, Greenspan was happy to support what has now become the GOP tradition of cutting taxes for the rich, no matter what the fiscal consequences.
Some would argue that Rubin and Clinton had no other leverage to keep Greenspan from killing the recovery. But they clearly had more wiggle room. Wall Street's worry was that the deficit was out of control. The Clinton administration could have mollified financiers' fears by cutting the deficit to something like 2 percent of gross domestic product. That would have freed up additional revenue for desperately needed public investment, and Greenspan would have been on weak ground to throttle non-inflationary economic growth. Moreover, Clinton had control over the one thing that Greenspan desperately wanted: reappointment. Had the president been willing to discipline the chairman with some of the job anxiety that kept America's workers in line during the 1990s, a few dollars of that now tragically lost surplus might have been invested in things such as schools, hospitals and clean air.
Compared with what we have now, of course, we'd be happy to have Rubin back. And if the country lucks out next November, he -- and we -- may get another chance. So I'd be a lot more comfortable if his book had at least acknowledged that he helped Greenspan take us to the cleaners. The next Democratic administration should not be condemned to repeat the mistakes of the last one.
Jeff Faux
Copyright ? 2004 by The American Prospect, Inc. Preferred Citation: Jeff Faux, "Robert Rubin's Contested Legacy," The American Prospect vol. 15 no. 2, February 1, 2004 . This article may not be resold, reprinted, or redistributed for compensation of any kind without prior written permission from the author. Direct questions about permissions to permissions@prospect.org.



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Cyber Snoop
Somebody infiltrated Democratic electronic correspondence -- and let the world know about it. Now the case could turn into a full-blown e-gate. N.J. sens. tunnel for $4 billion
By Klaus Marre
New Jersey's two senators are pressing Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) to support the building of a third tunnel connection under the Hudson River to New York City at a cost of $4 billion.
Sens. Frank Lautenberg (D) and Jon Corzine (D) met Jan. 29 with Shelby, who chairs the Appropriations Subcommittee on Transportation, Treasury and General Government, to promote the merits of the project.
The project will come as a surprise to New York Sens. Charles Schumer (D) and Hillary Clinton (D), who have not been informed of their neighbors' intention.
Lautenberg said a rail tunnel into New York would be a "critical national asset," noting that rail service was the "only significantly functioning" means of transportation available "when the area was crippled" by the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Shelby "understands the necessity" of the project, Lautenberg added.
He noted that the area gets "maximum use" out of the two existing tunnels and said he would "work with [Shelby] in every way possible to make this an ... effective, cost-efficient investment."
Lautenberg said that since his first stint in the Senate, when he also chaired the subcommittee, he and Shelby have had a good working relationship.
Following his meeting with the two New Jersey senators, Shelby said they were "working on funding for transit."
Virginia Davis, Shelby's spokeswoman, added that her boss "understands the importance of the priority to the senators, and moving forward he intends to consider the request carefully."
Lautenberg said he and Corzine are unified in their support for the project but added that they haven't talked to [Schumer and Clinton] about it yet. Schumer said he "had heard a few rumors but nothing concrete" about the tunnel project.
Building a rail tunnel would obviously require "a significant amount of money," Lautenberg said, but he is not looking at the price tag yet. Before that, he wants to see the design.
Corzine said the cost for the project would be $3.5 billion to $4 billion but the federal government would share the burden with the states and the Port Authority, which have to be "heavy workers" to secure the necessary funds.
He added that the tunnel would not be funded all at once. At present, the only money that needs to be found is for "initial engineering work," he said. Overall, Corzine estimates that the federal share would be about $1 billion.
Environmental impact studies and other preliminary research is already under way, Corzine confirmed.
An expensive regional project could face significant opposition, especially at a time when the national deficit is large and the White House and Republicans talk about curbing non-defense spending. But Lautenberg said he and Corzine would do "whatever we have to" to get the tunnel.
In its budget blueprint, the Bush administration proposes cutting the discretionary spending for the Department of Transportation by 3.9 percent, which includes cuts for railroad programs.
Lautenberg said the war in Iraq should not be fought at the expense of domestic priorities and Corzine stated that the "idea of balancing the budget on the back of transportation dollars is absurd."
Corzine argued that the project is not only important to his constituents but also to "the whole Eastern seaboard," adding that a mammoth construction project would create many jobs in the area.

? 2003 The Hill

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By Farai Chideya
Web Exclusive: 2.3.04
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When I was young and stupid -- say, three years ago -- I dated a guy heretofore known as The Control Freak. One day I noticed he'd left his e-mail account open. I felt a powerful urge to see if he'd treated his ex-girlfriend the way he treated me. I found out that he had.
Three things happened. One, I confessed. (I'm Catholic. I can't help it.) Two, I never read his e-mail again. And finally, despite my apologies, he lorded my indiscretion over me until we mercifully broke up. I can't say I blame him. Like many people who grew up in the computer era, I consider private e-mail a sacrosanct space, more like a diary than a daykeeper. Invading someone's e-mail is like sitting on that person's bed and flipping through his or her journals.
Which brings us to the curious case of Republicans infiltrating Democratic e-correspondence. Private, or supposedly private, Democratic memos were leaked to conservative media outlets The Washington Times, The Wall Street Journal, and possibly radio and television host Sean Hannity. At issue is a computer system that allowed Republican staffers to read Democratic memos and correspondence without a password. Some of these staffers argued that they told the Democrats about the security breach in the summer of 2002. Others believe mum was the word before November 2003. In any case, the Republicans had more than a year of unfettered access to Democratic documents before this scandal became public.
And what a year it was. At issue is a series of Democratic strategy memos on controversial judicial appointments. A year ago, columnist Bob Novak detailed Democratic strategy for blocking conservative nominees to the federal bench. The descriptions in his column, including the Democratic characterization of blocked nominee Miguel Estrada as a "stealth right-wing zealot" who was "especially dangerous, because ... he is a Latino" were straight from the pilfered electronic files. In some accounts of the case, the content of the memos has become as much of an issue as the spying itself.
In a press conference, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch admitted that an investigation by federal prosecutors "revealed at least one current member of the Judiciary Committee staff had improperly accessed at least some of the documents referenced in the media reports and which have been posted on the Internet."
The staffer, Manuel Miranda, is on paid administrative leave. Reached by The Boston Globe, which broke the story, Miranda said, "There appears to have been no hacking, no stealing, and no violation of any Senate rule. Stealing assumes a property right and there is no property right to a government document. ... These documents are not covered under the Senate disclosure rule because they are not official business and, to the extent they were disclosed, they were disclosed inadvertently by negligent [Democratic] staff."
Nice try. Lee Tien, senior staff attorney for the Electronic Frontier Foundation, notes, "Each time the Republicans accessed the Democrats' files without authorization, they at a minimum violated the federal Computer Fraud and Abuse Act, 18 USC Sec.1030(a)(2)." That statute includes anyone who "intentionally accesses a computer without authorization or exceeds authorized access, and thereby obtains ... information from any department or agency of the United States."
Tien also rejects the reports that focus on the content of Democratic memos versus their theft. In describing this crime, he says, "It's pretty sleazy to blame the victim when you're the one exploiting the weakness in the first place. Good computer security is hard. Poor computer security is extremely common. ... I don't believe in double standards, so maybe we should think of all the companies and governments who have been hacked in the past few years because of poor security."
And what about the disputed Republican argument that they told Democrats about the problem a year ago? "It's as if they're saying `I told you the lock on your back door was broken -- if you didn't fix it, I should be able to walk right into your house and take what I want,'" says computer-privacy expert Mike Godwin, senior technology counsel at Public Knowledge.
It's been hard for this story to get much play in a time filled with talk of weapons of mass destruction (or the lack thereof), Democratic primaries, and presidential budget recommendations. But the continuing investigation could turn this case of file spying into a full-on electronic Watergate.
Senate Sergeant at Arms William Pickle is now turning over backup tapes of the Judiciary Committee computer to the Capitol police. This prompted a group of Republicans on the Judiciary Committee, including Saxby Chambliss of Georgia and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, to complain that the investigation could compromise their own e-privacy. "We strongly object to allowing anyone to read backup tapes or other electronic media from the Judiciary Committee server, the Exchange server or otherwise breach the privacy of our electronic files and communications," they wrote in a letter to Pickle. So far, their concerns have taken a back seat to the needs of the investigation.
In the end, Republican gains from scanning the memos may be far outweighed by disclosures from the spying case. After all, those who live by the sword -- or the mouse click -- can die by it as well.
Farai Chideya is the author of the forthcoming Trust: Reaching the 100 Million Missing Voters.
Farai Chideya
Copyright ? 2004 by The American Prospect, Inc. Preferred Citation: Farai Chideya, "Cyber Snoop Somebody infiltrated Democratic electronic correspondence -- and let the world know about it. Now the case could turn into a full-blown e-gate.," The American Prospect Online, February 3, 2004. This article may not be resold, reprinted, or redistributed for compensation of any kind without prior written permission from the author. Direct questions about permissions to permissions@prospect.org.
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Leak staffer ousted
Frist aide forced out in an effort to assuage Dems
By Alexander Bolton
Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist's (R-Tenn.) top aide on judicial nominees is expected to announce his resignation at the end of this week -- a sacrifice offered by the GOP leadership in hope of persuading the Democrats to wind down the fight over leaked Judiciary Committee memos.
The aide, Manuel Miranda, had spearheaded the Republican effort to push President Bush's judicial nominees through the Senate in the face of fierce Democratic opposition.
Miranda declined a request for comment. But The Hill has learned that he agreed to resign under pressure from Judiciary Committee Chairman Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah). The Democrats have not agreed to scale back their demands for wide-ranging punishments following a full-blown leak inquiry.
patrick g. ryan
Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist
Since switching from the Judiciary Committee to Frist's office in February last year, Miranda had overseen a multi-pronged strategy to confirm judges whom Democrats had blocked with filibusters and other procedural tactics.
Miranda helped galvanize the Senate Republican caucus and outside constituent
groups such as Hispanics and Catholics behind the nominees. In previous years, most of the Senate Republican caucus, apart from members of the Judiciary Committee, remained aloof from the fight.
The aide's departure signals that Senate Republican leaders will likely pull back from confrontation over Bush's judges. Last year's high-intensity battles included a GOP-staged 40-hour marathon debate on blocked nominees.
As an aide in Frist's office, Miranda was able to organize the Judiciary Committee with outside groups that communicated the Republican message on judges. Without the heft of Frist's office behind the campaign to confirm Bush's judges, the Senate Republican Conference, will have a tough time overcoming turf battles with the committee.
If they can tamp down the furor over the leaked memos, Republicans could focus on the content of the documents, which illustrate the influence outside groups such as the NAACP and People for the American Way have had on Democratic decisions to block nominees.
"It's capitulation to the old Democratic trick that if you catch us with our hands dirty, we'll blame Republicans for dirty tricks," said a GOP aide.
Miranda admitted to the sergeant at arms that he had read Democratic memos that a Republican staffer on the Judiciary Committee accessed through a glitch on the panel server. But it is unclear what rules if any Miranda broke. His defenders say that the files were openly available to Republicans through their desktop computers and that there is no such thing as a property right to a federal document.
Sergeant at Arms Bill Pickle's investigation of how internal Democratic memos were leaked to the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Times has halted the momentum Republicans built last year on judicial nominees. It has also generated bad publicity for Republicans.
Frist's staff told The Boston Globe two weeks ago that Miranda had been placed on paid leave pending the results of the investigation. But Miranda's fate may have been sealed by Pickle, who urged Frist chief of staff Lee Rawls to sack him, according to several Senate aides.
Miranda confronted Pickle in an e-mail last week.
"Do you think that it is appropriate to go to the GOP bicameral [retreat] today and lobby Frist staff and senators to have me fired, as I am told you have been doing? Do you think that will at all taint the report which you are soon to issue? Do you think it is proper?" Miranda demanded of the sergeant at arms.
Frist spokesman Bob Stevenson said no staff in the Majority Leader's office reported being lobbied by Pickle.
"I have no idea what he's referring to," said Stevenson in response to the allegation.
Democrats had threatened Hatch Monday to hold up the proceedings of the Judiciary Committee unless he agreed to schedule a briefing by Pickle for Republicans and Democrats on the the investigation's progress.
Pickle will reportedly participate in a senators-only briefing next Tuesday. His office's investigation, which has interviewed over 100 staffers and seized several computers, is expected to conclude soon.
Some GOP senators resent the way the controversy turned from Democratic to Republican impropriety.
"Right now I think that was pretty unfair," Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) said of the probe's focus on Miranda. "I don't have the impression he did anything wrong and we just completely quit looking at was done and what was found [in the memos]. I don't know the details, but I would not be a friend in firing a highly qualified staffer."
"Miranda has really been the quarterback on the Republican side for much of the Senate activity on this," said Sean Rushton, the executive director of the Committee for a Fair Judiciary.
Republicans are also losing senior counsel Rena Comisac, who headed the Judiciary Committee's nominations team. She will start working at the Justice Department next Monday.
Responsibility for judicial nominees in the majority leader's office will now be assigned to Bill Wichterman, Frist's director of coalitions.
But some conservatives are worried that Wichterman, who handles a wide array of issues and coalitions, will not be able to devote the same specialized attention as Miranda did to judicial nominees.
? 2003 The Hill
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Bird's Eye
By Jon Entine
Let Them Eat Precaution
On cue, at last fall's World Trade Organization meeting in Cancun, self anointed "Green" activists showed up to protest the use of gene modification (G.M.) technology in agriculture. A bevy of teenagers outfitted as monarch butterflies flitted through what resembled a Halloween riot. Dotted amongst the chanting demonstrators was an assortment of human side dishes including walking "killer" tomatoes, a man dressed as a cluster of drippy purple grapes, and a woman in a strawberry costume topped with a fish head peddling T-shirts that warned of the weird and horrid mutants that will be created if "Corporate America" and the "multinationals" get their way.
It would all be so very entertaining--if there weren't so much at stake, largely for the very people in Africa and Asia for whom these protestors purport to speak. As Patrick Moore, co-founder of Greenpeace, who split with environmental fundamentalists over their didactic rejection of genetic modification, writes in his piece beginning on page 24, "I cannot comprehend that anyone, let alone someone who fancies himself as progressive, would argue against pursuing research on putting a daffodil gene in rice that could boost its Vitamin A content and prevent a half million children from going blind each year. Yet, that's just what they're doing. They even oppose basic research."
What a disheartening turn in the genetics revolution. Fifty-one years ago this February, James Watson and Francis Crick hoisted pints of ale into the air at the Eagle Pub near Cambridge University and declared: "We have found the secret of life!" The two young scientists had finally identified the elegant, double-helix structure of the DNA molecule, which contains the chemical codes for all living things, animal and plant. The era of genetic science had begun. In 2004 we are just beginning to exploit its potential .We see the future in the promising screening procedures and therapies developed to treat hundreds of genetic disorders from breast cancer to sickle cell to cystic fibrosis. It enables crime scene investigators to clear the innocent and convict the real criminals.
But of most immediate importance, it is spreading the Green Revolution to the poorest corners of the globe. G.M. technology has led to the development of soybeans, wheat, and cotton that generate natural insecticides, making them more drought resistant, reducing the need for costly and environmentally harmful chemicals, and increasing yields. Researchers are perfecting ways to increase the vitamin content of staples like rice and bananas, which could dramatically cut malnutrition and lengthen life spans. Yet, for all its vast demonstrated value, this still-nascent technology, which promises further breakthroughs in fields such as plant-based pharmaceuticals, remains drastically underused, mired in controversy.
Some concerns are serious. There needs to be a vigorous discussion about the degree to which corporations should be allowed to patent and therefore control beneficial biotech products they develop. Monsanto, Novartis, and other firms maintain they need to recoup their research costs. There is an eminently reasonable concern over corporate control, but it has taken a backseat to sensational and often misleading allegations.
Consider the hyperbolic campaign against treating cows to increase milk yields. Organic activists allege that 90 percent of our milk supply is "contaminated" by being mixed with milk from cows treated with a protein supplement, recombinant bovine somatotropin (rbST). A decade ago, farmers discovered that cows given supplements produce more milk for a longer time. That means less feed and fuel are needed than for other herds, which results in a host of environmental benefits. But the bio-fermentation process, which is similar to making beer and wine and doesn't change the milk, involves biotechnology, and has sparked an outrageous scare campaign.
There is simply no evidence that biotechnology poses greater risks than crossbreeding or gene-splicing, which have given us seedless grapes and the tangelo. Virtually every plant grown commercially for food or fiber is a product of crossbreeding, hybridization, or both. Using traditional breeding methods, about which there is absolutely no controversy, thousands of genes of often unknown function are moved into crops and animals. The new biotech tools allow breeders to select specific genes that produce desired traits and move them from one plant or animal to another.
Time and again, dire warnings have been unmasked as little more than hysteria-grams. Years of hammering away with misinformation have taken an enormous toll--polluting public opinion, profoundly altering the trajectory of biotechnology applications, and damaging the financial wherewithal of companies and university research projects.
Undercut by the mounting genetic evidence, anti-G.M. forces have cooked up a new tactic, invoking the lowest common denominator in fabricated scientific disputes: the "precautionary principle." They assert that "Trojan Horse" genes not subject to built-in checks and balances in nature could cause environmental havoc. They argue for a halt to all commercial uses of biotechnology. They politicize the issue by introducing into common usage the pejorative appellations "pollution" and "contamination" to describe the mixing of genetically modified seed or crops with conventional supplies. They claim to be acting on behalf of innocent but unaware consumers and the natural environment.
"Better safe than sorry" has nice a ring of moderation, but it's deceptive in this context. Recall the dozens of serious injuries and the death of a Seattle girl in 1997 from drinking unpasteurized, E. coli-laced juice made by Odwalla from apples that had fallen in "natural" fertilizer: dung. While there have been no documented health problems and no deaths or injuries linked to bioengineering, people die every year from eating "naturally" contaminated foods. If the precautionary principle were applied to "natural" foods, they would be stripped from the grocery shelves overnight.
Let's underscore what's going on here: Activists demonize biotechnology by exploiting a general wariness about science. This is not a scientific dispute, but an ideological and religious one: Don't tamper with nature. It's a romantic and superficially seductive message, but a blanket insinuation that nature is always benign or better is obviously hokum. The anti-biotech industry is stocked with scientific illiterates who worship the primitive over progress and confrontation over reform even if it means freezing the developing world out of the benefits that we take for granted.
Some mainstream environmental groups, such as the Sierra Club, and "ethical" investors, which could have taken the high road on a complex issue, instead stand with anti-science hardliners in arguing for mandatory labeling of products made with G.M. technology. More disclosure seems reasonable, but mandatory labeling is a disingenuous ploy designed to stigmatize biotech products with what amounts to a skull and crossbones. Michael Passoff, of anti-biotech group As You Sow, bragged about what would happen if the campaign succeeds. "We expect that [the food industry] won't want to risk alienating their customers with labeling, so they'll eventually decide not to use any bio-stuff at all," he chortled. In other words, G.M. products with proven health and environmental benefits would vaporize from the marketplace.
The call for labeling, even absent evidence of problems, has nonetheless resonated strongly in Europe, where scares involving mad cow disease and dioxin-contaminated feed have rattled the public. Supermarket chains have yanked G.M. products. The European Union has had an unofficial moratorium on new bioengineered seeds and food for five years, and will not lift the embargo until it is assured that the U.S. won't resist its labeling rules. Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and other countries support mandatory labeling of G.M.-derived foods.
The ideological crosswinds have spawned regulatory bodies, global protests, litigation, Internet campaigns, and an international humanitarian crisis over whether people in famine stricken countries should starve rather than eat crops grown using biotechnology. The "earth firsters" are directly responsible for spooking Zambia into rejecting donations of G.M. grain that would have helped feed its desperately starving population.
There are certainly valid concerns that need to be addressed if genetic modification is to get a fair shot in the marketplace. However, in the current atmosphere, rational policy initiatives and coordinated international trade policies are extremely difficult. What is lacking in Europe, and increasingly in the U.S., is a public discussion about the existing and potential benefits of biotechnology. Let's hope this issue of TAE furthers that discussion.
BIRD'S EYE guest author Jon Entine is an adjunct fellow at AEI and scholar in residence at Miami University of Ohio. His book on the genetics of Biblical ancestry will come out this year. Karl Zinsmeister has been re-embedded with the 82nd Airborne in Iraq; his reporting will appear in our next issue. This installment of TAE was commissioned by Karl Zinsmeister and edited by Karina Rollins and Daniel Kennelly.
Published in Biotech Bounty March 2004
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Battle for Biotech Progress
By Patrick Moore
I was raised in the tiny fishing and logging village of Winter Harbour on the northwest tip of Vancouver Island, where salmon spawned in the streams of the adjoining Pacific rainforest. In school I discovered ecology, and realized that through science I could gain insight into the natural beauties I had known as a child. In the late 1960s I was transformed into a radical environmental activist. A rag-tag group of activists and I sailed a leaky old halibut boat across the North Pacific to block the last hydrogen bomb tests under President Nixon. In the process I co-founded Greenpeace.
By the mid 1980s my interest was in "sustainable development" that would take environmental ideas and incorporate them into the traditional social and economic values that govern public policy and our daily behavior. Every morning, 6 billion people wake up with real needs for food, energy, and materials. The challenge is to provide for those needs in ways that reduce negative impact on the environment while also being socially acceptable and technically and economically feasible. Compromise and cooperation among environmentalists, the government, industry, and academia are essential for sustainability.
Not all my former colleagues saw things that way, however. Many environmentalists rejected consensus politics and sustainable development in favor of continued confrontation, ever-increasing extremism, and left-wing politics. At the beginning of the modern environmental movement, Ayn Rand published Return of the Primitive, which contained an essay by Peter Schwartz titled "The Anti- Industrial Revolution." In it, he warned that the new movement's agenda was anti-science, anti-technology, and anti-human. At the time, he didn't get a lot of attention from the mainstream media or the public. Environmentalists were often able to produce arguments that sounded reasonable, while doing good deeds like saving whales and making the air and water cleaner.
But now the chickens have come home to roost. The environmentalists' campaign against biotechnology in general, and genetic engineering in particular, has clearly exposed their intellectual and moral bankruptcy. By adopting a zero tolerance policy toward a technology with so many potential benefits for humankind and the environment, they have lived up to Schwartz's predictions. They have alienated themselves from scientists, intellectuals, and internationalists. It seems inevitable that the media and the public will, in time, see the insanity of their position. As my friend Klaus Ammann likes to hope, "maybe biotech will be the Waterloo for Greenpeace and their allies." Then again, maybe that's just wishful thinking.
On October 15, 2001 I found myself sitting in my office in Vancouver after Greenpeace activists in Paris successfully prevented me from speaking via videoconference to 400 delegates of the European Seed Association. The Greenpeacers chained themselves to the seats in the Cine Cite Bercy auditorium and threatened to shout down the speakers. The venue was hastily shifted elsewhere, but the videoconferencing equipment couldn't be set up at the new location, leading to the cancellation of my keynote presentation.
The issue, in this case, was the application of biotechnology to agriculture and genetic modification. The conference in Paris was a meeting of delegates from seed companies, biotechnology companies, and government agencies involved in regulation throughout Europe. Surely these are topics covered by the rules of free speech.
Had those rules not been violated, I would have told the assembled that the accusations of "Frankenstein food" and "killer tomatoes" are as much a fantasy as the Hollywood movies they are borrowed from. I would have argued that, if adding a daffodil gene to rice in order to produce a genetically modified strain of rice can prevent half a million children from going blind each year, then we should move forward carefully to develop it. I would have told them that Greenpeace policy on genetics lacks any respect for logic or science.
In 2001, the European Commission released the results of 81 scientific studies on genetically modified organisms conducted by over 400 research teams at a cost of U.S. $65 million. The studies, which covered all areas of concern, have "not shown any new risks to human health or the environment, beyond the usual uncertainties of conventional plant breeding. Indeed, the use of more precise technology and the greater regulatory scrutiny probably make them even safer than conventional plants and foods." Clearly my former Greenpeace colleagues are either not reading the morning paper or simply don't care about the truth. And they choose to silence by force those of us who do care about it.
The campaign of fear now waged against genetic modification is based largely on fantasy and a complete lack of respect for science and logic. In the balance it is clear that the real benefits of genetic modification far outweigh the hypothetical and sometimes contrived risks claimed by its detractors.
The programs of genetic research and development now under way in labs and field stations around the world are entirely about benefiting society and the environment. Their purpose is to improve nutrition, to reduce the use of synthetic chemicals, to increase the productivity of our farmlands and forests, and to improve human health. Those who have adopted a zero tolerance attitude towards genetic modification threaten to deny these many benefits by playing on fear of the unknown and fear of change.
The case of "Golden Rice" provides a clear illustration of this. Hundreds of millions of people in Asia and Africa suffer from Vitamin A deficiency. Among them, half a million children lose their eyesight each year, and millions more suffer from lesser symptoms. Golden Rice has the potential to greatly reduce the suffering, because it contains the gene that makes daffodils yellow, infusing the rice with beta-carotene, the precursor to Vitamin A. Ingo Potrykus, the Swiss co-inventor of Golden Rice, has said that a commercial variety is now available for planting, but that it will be at least five years before Golden Rice will be able to work its way through the byzantine regulatory system that has been set up as a result of the activists' campaign of misinformation and speculation. So the risk of not allowing farmers in Africa and Asia to grow Golden Rice is that another 2.5 million children will probably go blind.
What is the risk of allowing this humanitarian intervention to be planted? What possible risk could there be from a daffodil gene in a rice paddy? Yet Greenpeace activists threaten to rip the G.M. rice out of the fields if farmers dare to plant it. They have done everything they can to discredit the scientists and the technology, claiming that it would take nine kilos of rice per day to deliver sufficient Vitamin A. Potrykus has demonstrated that only 100 grams of Golden Rice would provide 50 percent of the daily need.
Golden Rice is not the only example of civilization being held hostage by activists. Since its introduction to Chinese agriculture in 1996, G.M. cotton has grown to occupy one third of the total area planted in what is northern China's most important cash crop. This particular variety, called Bt cotton, has been modified to resist the cotton bollworm, its most destructive pest worldwide.
On June 3, 2002 Greenpeace issued a media release announcing the publication of a report on the "adverse environmental impacts of Bt cotton in China." In typical Greenpeace hyperbole, we were advised that "farmers growing this crop are now finding themselves engulfed in Bt-resistant superbugs, emerging secondary pests, diminishing natural enemies, destabilized insect ecology," and that farmers are "forced to continue the use of chemical pesticides."
Let's examine these allegations one at a time:
* Bt-Resistant Superbugs: There is not a single example or shred of evidence in the Greenpeace report of actual bollworm resistance to Bt cotton in the field. There is evidence from lab studies in which bollworms were force-fed Bt cotton leaves, but any scientist knows that this kind of experiment will eventually result in selection for resistance. Greenpeace, however, is claiming selection for resistance has actually happened to farmers in the field. According to Professors Shirong Jia and Yufa Peng of the Chinese National GMO Biosafety Committee, "no resistance of cotton bollworm to Bt has been discovered yet after five years of Bt cotton planting. Resistant insect strains have been obtained in laboratories but not in field conditions." So much for the superbugs.
* Emerging Secondary Pests: Greenpeace points out that there are more aphids, spiders, and other secondary insect pests in fields of Bt cotton than in conventional cotton.This is called an "adverse" impact in their report. The fact is, because Bt cotton requires much less chemical pesticide than conventional cotton, these other insects can survive better in Bt cotton fields. For the scientifically literate, this reduction of impact on non-target insects is actually considered one of the environmental benefits of G.M. crops. How Greenpeace figures this is "adverse" is beyond comprehension.
* Diminishing Natural Enemies: The Greenpeace media release states that there are fewer of the bollworm's natural predators and parasites in Bt cotton fields compared to conventional cotton, and calls this an "adverse impact." Again, a careful read of the report comes up with no evidence for this claim. And again, according to Professors Jia and Peng, "as of today, there are no adverse impacts reported on natural parasitic enemies in the Bt cotton fields." And after all, isn't it a bit obvious that if using Bt cotton reduces bollworm populations, that bollworm parasite populations will also be reduced? Will Greenpeace now embark on an international campaign to "save the bollworm parasites"?
* Destabilized Insect Ecology: This one is a hoot. To speak of "insect ecology" in a monoculture cotton field that was sprayed with chemicals up to 17 times a year before the introduction of Bt cotton is ridiculous. The main impact of Bt cotton has been to reduce chemical pesticide use and therefore to reduce impacts on non-target species.
* Farmers Forced to Continue Using Chemical Pesticides: This claim gets the Most Misleading and Dishonest Award. No, Bt resistance does not provide 100 percent protection. Because secondary pests sometimes need to be controlled, farmers using Bt cotton usually use some pesticides during the growing cycle. Professors Jia and Peng sum it up this way: "The greatest environmental impact of Bt cotton was...a significant reduction (70-80 percent) of the chemical pesticide use. It is known that pesticides used in cotton production in China are estimated to be 25 percent of the total amount of pesticides used in all the crops. By using Bt cotton in 2000 in Shandong province alone, the reduction of pesticide use was 1,500 tons. It not only reduced the environmental pollution, but also reduced the rate of harmful accidents to humans and animals caused by the overuse of pesticides."
The Greenpeace report is a classic example of the use of agenda-based "science" to support misinformation and distortion of the truth. Once again, Greenpeace demonstrates that its zero tolerance policy on genetic modification can only be supported by distortions and false interpretations of data--in other words, junk science.
A hunger strike led by Greenpeace finally ended in Manila on May 22 after 29 days. Activists were protesting the introduction of Bt corn into the southern Philippines. In order to whip up media attention, activists have spread scare stories that G.M. corn "would result in millions of dead bodies, sick children, cancer clusters and deformities." Thankfully, the government did not give in to these fools and stood by its decision, based on three years of consultation and field trials, to allow farmers to plant Bt corn. Already there are indications of higher yield and improved incomes to farmers who chose to use the Bt corn.
For six years, anti-biotech activists managed to prevent the introduction of G.M. crops in India. This was largely the work of Vandana Shiva, the Oxford-educated daughter of a wealthy Indian family, who has campaigned relentlessly to "protect" poor farmers from the ravages of multinational seed companies. In 2002, she was given the Hero of the Planet award by Time magazine for "defending traditional agricultural practices."
Read: poverty and ignorance. It looked like Shiva would win the G.M. debate until 2001, when unknown persons illegally planted 25,000 acres of Bt cotton in Gujarat. The cotton bollworm infestation was particularly bad that year, and there was soon a 25,000 acre plot of beautiful green cotton in a sea of brown. The local authorities were notified and decided that the illegal cotton must be burned. This was too much for the farmers, who could now clearly see the benefits of the Bt variety. In a classic march to city hall with pitchforks in hand, the farmers protested and won the day. Bt cotton was approved for planting in March 2002. One hopes the poverty-stricken cotton farmers of India will become wealthier and deprive Vandana Shiva of her parasitical practice.
Until recently the situation in Brazil was far from promising. A panel of three judges managed to block approval of any G.M. crops there. Meanwhile, the soybean farmers in the south of the country have been quietly smuggling G.M. soybean seeds across the border from Argentina, where they are legal. The fact that Brazil was officially G.M.-free has allowed European countries to import Brazilian soybeans despite the E.U. moratorium on the import of G.M. crops. But recently things have changed.
With the election of President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva of the Workers Party in 2002, the Green elements within the party pressed the government to enforce the ban on genetically modified organisms. There was something ironic about a "workers party" enforcing a policy that will damage farmers who have come to enjoy the benefits of biotechnology. In the end, the Brazilian farmers rebelled like those in India. In 2003 the government relented and allowed G.M. soybeans to be planted. The soybean farmers of southern Brazil have become prosperous, bringing benefits to the environment and their local communities.
Surely there is some way to break through the misinformation and hysteria and provide a more balanced picture to the public. Surely if reasonable people saw the choice between the risk of a daffodil gene in a rice plant versus the certainty of millions of blind children, they would descend on Greenpeace offices around the world and demand to have their money back. How is it that these charlatans continue to stymie progress on so many fronts when their arguments are nothing more than wild, scary speculation?
The main reason for the failure to win the debate decisively is the failure of supporters of G.M. technology to act decisively. The activists are playing hardball while the biotech side soft-pedals the health and environmental benefits of this new technology. Biotech companies and their associations use soft images and calm language, apparently to lull the public into making pleasant associations with G.M. products. How can that strategy possibly hope to counter the Frankenfood fears and superweed scares drummed up by Greenpeace and so many others?
Just from a brief scan of the Monsanto, Syngenta, and Council for Biotechnology Web sites, it is clear that these companies and organizations are trying to project positive, clean, and calming thoughts. This is all well and good, but it is no way to turn the tide. Stronger medicine is needed. Imagine an advertising campaign that showed graphic images of blind children in Africa, explained Vitamin A deficiency, introduced Golden Rice, and demonstrated how Greenpeace's actions are preventing the delivery of this cure. Imagine another ad that showed impoverished Indian cotton farmers, explained Bt cotton, and presented the statistics for increased yield, reduced pesticide use, and better lives for farmers--followed by the clear statement that activists are to blame for the delayed adoption of the technology.
How about an ad that graphically portrays the soil erosion and stream siltation caused by conventional farming versus the soil conservation made possible by using G.M. soybeans? And another one that shows workers applying pesticides without protection in a developing country versus the greatly reduced applications possible with Bt corn and cotton? What if all these ads were hosted by a well-known and trusted personality? Wouldn't this change public perspectives? The biotechnology sector needs to ramp up its communications program, and to get a lot more aggressive in explaining the issues to the public through the media. Nothing less will turn the tide in the battle for the minds, and hearts, of people around the world.
Patrick Moore is chairman and chief scientist of Greenspirit Strategies, an environmental consulting agency.
Published in Biotech Bounty March 2004

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Ricin Probe Links White House, S.C. Mail
Feb 4, 9:39 AM (ET)
By CURT ANDERSON
WASHINGTON (AP) - A new link is emerging between letters containing the poison ricin found in mail facilities that serve the White House and a South Carolina airport as federal investigators seek to identify the letter or parcel that may have carried ricin into a Senate mailroom.
A senior law enforcement official, speaking Tuesday on condition of anonymity, said investigators had established strong links between the South Carolina and White House letters. What remained unclear, the official said, was whether those letters were connected to the substance found in the office of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn.
The letter found in October at a postal facility serving the Greenville-Spartanburg International Airport - signed by someone who called himself "Fallen Angel" - and one found in November at a facility that processes mail for the White House both complained about new regulations requiring certain amounts of rest for truck drivers, the official said. Both also contained ricin.
Investigators said Tuesday they had not identified the letter or package that might have carried ricin into Frist's office. An initial check found no extortion, threat or complaint letter in the office, said a second law enforcement source also speaking on condition of anonymity.
There were no indications of involvement by foreign terrorists such as al-Qaida, which the FBI has said is interested in using ricin in an attack.
The powdery white substance was found on a machine that opens mail in Frist's office, authorities said. The area in the Tennessee senator's office was quarantined and stacks of mail were to be checked.
"We have an open mind about the source of this," said Terrance Gainer, chief of the U.S. Capitol Police, which is conducting the probe along with the FBI and the multi-agency joint terrorism task force based at the FBI's Washington field office.
Gainer said authorities were interviewing members of Frist's staff and others who had access to the mailroom. Although it was considered remotely possible that the ricin was physically planted in Frist's office, investigators were concentrating on mail as the likely source.
The package found in a South Carolina mail facility had a letter claiming the author could make more ricin and a threat to "start dumping" large quantities if his demands to stop the new trucking regulations were not met. The FBI offered a $100,000 reward in that case but no arrests have been made.
The White House letter, intercepted in November, contained nearly identical language but such weak amounts of ricin that it was not deemed a major health threat, said another law enforcement official. That letter's existence was not publicly disclosed before Tuesday.
At the Capitol, an FBI hazardous materials team was helping police isolate and examine the mail in Frist's office and will in the coming days collect other unopened mail in the Capitol complex, said FBI spokeswoman Debra Weierman. The FBI also will do forensic analysis at its laboratory in Quantico, Va., checking evidence for fingerprints, fibers, hair and the like.
The latest discovery comes as the FBI continues its 28-month-old investigation into the fall 2001 mailings of anthrax-laced letters to Senate and news media offices. Five people died and 17 were injured in that attack.
The anthrax investigation is ongoing, FBI spokesman Ed Cogswell said. Twenty-eight FBI agents and 12 postal inspectors are assigned full-time to the anthrax case, which has involved some 5,000 interviews and issuance of 4,000 subpoenas.
The FBI has focused recently on an intensive scientific effort to determine how the spores were made and narrow the possibilities in terms of who had the means to make them. Authorities have many theories on who might be responsible, ranging from al-Qaida terrorists to a disgruntled scientist to an expert who sought to expose U.S. vulnerabilities to bioweapons attacks.
The one man named a "person of interest" by authorities, Dr. Steven J. Hatfill, says he has nothing to do with the attacks and has sued the government for publicly identifying him. Hatfill is a former government scientist and bioweapons expert who once worked at the Army Medical Research Institute of Infections Diseases at Fort Detrick, Md.
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Revealed: the nationalities of Guantanamo
By John C. K. Daly
International Correspondent
Published 2/4/2004 5:42 PM
WASHINGTON, Feb. 4 (UPI) -- At least 160 of the 650 detainees acknowledged by the Pentagon being held at the United States military base at Guantanamo, Cuba -- almost a quarter of the total -- are from Saudi Arabia, a special UPI survey can reveal.
In UPI's groundbreaking and detailed breakdown of the nationalities of the detainees, some arrested far from the 2001 battlefield of Afghanistan, the other top nationalities being held are Yemen with 85, Pakistan with 82, Jordan and Egypt, each with 30.
Afghans are the fourth largest nationality with 80 detainees, according to the detailed UPI survey that has now for the first time established the homelands of 95 percent of the total number of prisoners.
One member of the Bahraini royal family is among those detained, according to his lawyer Najeeb al-Nauimi of Doha, Qatar, who was Qatar's 1995-97 justice minister and has power of attorney from the parents of about 70 prisoners.
The Pentagon's own list of nationalities detained at Guantanamo may be flawed. Yemeni officials have told UPI they fear more than twice as many of their citizens are held than the Pentagon count.
Suspected terrorists are detained by U.S. forces at a number of points around the world, including Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean and Bagram air force base outside Kabul. But Camp Delta, the U.S. detention facility in Guantanamo, has attracted the most media attention and international protest.
Camp Delta was built at a cost of $9.7 million by Brown and Root Services, a subsidiary of Haliburton by contract workers from India and the Philippines. Camp Delta replaces Camp X-Ray, the first improvised detention center constructed in January 2002 to house individuals detained in Afghanistan.
The Pentagon has kept a very tight lid on material about the detainees; only the identities of those who choose to correspond via the Red Cross are known. The Defense Department has repeatedly declined to provide a breakdown of the detainees by nationality.
Sources close to the Pentagon have admitted to UPI that "sensitive diplomatic considerations" were behind the decision to keep the nationalities secret.
The large number of Saudi nationals at Guantanamo, now it has been made public, is likely to intensify concern in the U.S. Congress about the real state of the U.S.-Saudi relationship.
A DoD spokesperson told UPI Wednesday "such a list exists, but it is classified."
Drawing on a wide range of sources, UPI has tentatively determined the nationalities of 619 of Camp Delta's inmates from 38 countries.
Until the U.S. government is more forthcoming with information, the figures below remain incomplete.
Complicating the issue is the sporadic release of a number of detainees; in the wake of last week's release of three teenagers, another 87 detainees have been transferred pending release. In addition, four detained Saudis have been transferred to continue their imprisonment in Saudi Arabia.
There is a rough correlation between nations subjected to terrorism and the number of their citizens incarcerated in Guantanamo. That Camp Delta currently holds 80 or more Afghans is hardly surprising, as most of the detainees were captured there. However, Camp Delta also holds seven Arab men handed over to U.S. authorities in Bosnia, as well as five individuals arrested in Malawi last summer.
The magnitude of the Saudi presence in Camp Delta raises troubling questions about their presence in Afghanistan and whether the U.S. forces succeeded in capturing more than a fraction of those who might have been there.
Emphasizing the global metastasizing of terrorism, among the 85 Yemenis is an individual arrested in Sarajevo.
Yahya Alshawkani, Yemeni Embassy deputy chief of communication in Washington told UPI that his embassy kept in close touch with the U.S. authorities -- but questioned the accuracy of the Pentagon's own count. His government cites domestic reports that more than twice as many Yemenis were held as the Pentagon has told the Yemeni government.
When queried if the number 85 was accurate, Alshawkani replied, "We have been communicated 37 names by United States authorities. I think it is more than 37. Domestic reports indicate more than 70."
Asked to comment on the discrepancy Alshawkani said: "We were communicated names that they were sure that they were Yemenis, adding, "Perhaps the U.S. only passed on names of people they could positively identify." Alshawkani remarked that Yemen had already had "some preliminary discussion" about the Yemeni detainees; furthermore, "We were told some Yemenis would be released, but we are not sure how many."
Jordan, a close ally of the U.S. in its war on terror, has 30 of its citizens detained in Camp Delta, as does Egypt. Jordan has worked closely with the U.S. in the initial processing of prisoners, providing both interrogators and interpreters.
Morocco, site of an al-Qaida attack on a synagogue in April 2002 that killed 21 people, has 18 of its nationals in Guantanamo. Algeria, currently in the throes of a violent conflict between Islamists and the government, has 19 prisoners in Camp Delta, six of whom were arrested in Sarajevo.
Kuwait, liberated from Saddam Hussein by Operation Desert Storm in 1991 has 12 citizens in Guantanamo; the Kuwaiti government insists that all of its citizen were involved in charity and relief work. China also has at least 12 its citizens in Guantanamo, although they are all identified as ethnic Uighurs rather than Han Chinese. Next on the list are Tajikistan and Turkey with 11 citizens each. Tajikistan fought a bloody civil war in the aftermath of the collapse of communism in 1991 and fundamentalists maintain a strong presence there. Turkey last November was subjected to al-Qaida bombing attacks in Istanbul, which killed 62 people.
Nine British citizens of Muslim background are in Guantanamo; they have proven to be a political liability for Prime Minister Tony Blair, as calls have been made in Parliament for their repatriation.
Both Tunisia and Russia have eight of their nationals at Camp Delta; a Russian embassy spokesman was careful to point out however that the eight Russian citizens are not ethnic Russians. Rustam Akmerov, Ravil Gumarov, Timur Ishmuradov, Shamil Khadzhiev (originally identified as Almaz Sharipov), Rasul Kudaev, Ravil Mingazov, Ruslan Odigov and Airat Vakhitov are members of Russia's Muslim community. The Russian embassy nonetheless is quietly pursuing negotiations with Washington to extradite its citizens.
France and Bahrain both have seven each of their nationals at Gauntanamo. Highlighting the problems of identification, France only recently discovered its seventh national at Camp Delta. The Bahraini detainees include a member of the royal family.
Kazakhstan has been quietly lobbying Washington for the return of its citizens, as have Australia (2) and Canada (2.) Australian David Hicks is one of the most high profile prisoners in Camp Delta; a convert to Islam, Hicks fought as a jihadi in the Balkans before shipping out to Afghanistan.
There are reportedly at least two Chechens, two Uzbeks and two Syrians in Camp Delta. The Syrian detainees especially interest U.S. intelligence, as one of the four workers at Camp Delta under investigation for possibly aiding the prisoners, Air Force translator Senior Airman Ahmad al-Halabi is accused of trying to pass messages from the prisoners to Syria. There are also two Georgian and two Sudanese nationals in Guantanamo.
Bangladesh, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Iraq, Kenya, Libya, Mauritania, Qatar, Spain and Sweden all have a single citizen in Camp Delta.
The UPI survey was conducted by painstaking compilation and analysis of the press and media reports from countries all around the world along with interviews with foreign government officials and concludes that nationalities of 38 separate countries are represented in the U.S. military detention center.

Copyright ? 2001-2004 United Press International

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>> MIDDLE EAST POST...

700 Syrian activists demand the government reforms
Syria, Politics, 2/4/2004
Intellectuals, writers and lawyers called on the Syrian authorities to introduce political reforms and lift the state of emergency which has been imposed on the country since 40 years and to abrogate laws related to this state of emergency.
A petition signed by 700 intellectuals, writers, and lawyers called for the abrogation of what is called the state of emergency which was announced on March 8, 1963 in Syria and led, according to the petition to a "situation which besieges the society and freezes its movement and put thousands of citizens in jails for reasons pertaining to their views or political stances."
The signatories of the petition stressed the need for abrogating "all emergency and extraordinary trials, and to halt all oppressive detention, and to release all political detainees and detainees of the opinions ,and to compensate for and restoring back dignity for those who are deprived from their civilian rights for political reasons."
The petition urged the government to return back the exiled to their homeland under legal guarantees, and open the file of missing and disclose their fate and settle their legal conditions, and compensate for their relatives and called for releasing freedom including the freedoms of founding parties and civilian societies.
The committees in charge of democratic freedoms and human rights in Syria intend to submit this petition to the Syrian authorities on the occasion of the Baath party assumption of the authority in Syria on March 8th, and these committees hope to get more than one million signatures from all parts of the world.
On the other hand, the activist in the committees of civil revival, Michael Kilo, said that the democratic political forces in Syria got more than 1000 signatures in Syria in solidarity with the opinion detainees, and indicated in particular to 8 opposition members who were detained in the Summer of 2001 and were sentenced to ten year imprisonment under the charge of "violating the constitution." Simultaneously, the civil revival committees welcomed the initiative of the Syrian government in releasing 122 political prisoners in Syria but indicated that it is "a late and not enough step," with the existence of 750 prisoners under detention.
Last Thursday and Saturday the Syrian authorities released 122 political detainees. Defense organizations for human rights said that most of them belong to the Muslim Brothers group, the Islamic liberation front, and Iraq's Baath Party, and have completed their imprisonment penalty or are ill.
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al-Ahram: European official welcomes Syria's ME peace initiative
Syria-European Union, Politics, 2/4/2004
Head of the Middle East and North Africa Department at the European Commission, Christian Leffler, welcomed Tuesday President Bashar al-Assad's call for the resumption of peace negotiations on the Syrian track from the point where it left off, asserting the EU' s desire for the resumption of peace negotiations on this track.
In a statement given to Egyptian newspaper al-Ahram published Tuesday, Leffler stressed the importance of achieving progress on the Syrian track regarding the peace process in the Middle East.
"The European Union could help in the resumption of the peace negotiations and in supporting the outcomes, but it couldn't alternate any of the sides" he added, pointing out to the Israeli negative statements in response to the Syrian call.
He praised Syria's commitment to the complete participation with the EU in Barcelona process, describing the partnership agreement between Syria and the European Union which will be achieved soon as a positive development that serves the European states as well as Syria.
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Egyptian judge to participate in International Court of Justice case on Israeli wall
Palestine-Israel, Politics, 2/4/2004
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has decided that one of its judges, a national of Egypt, will fully participate in deliberations on the legal consequences of the construction of a wall in the occupied Palestinian territory.
The Court's decision came in response to documents submitted by Israel, but judges, voting 13 to 1, decided last week that the country's concerns were "not such as to preclude Judge [Nabil] Elaraby from participating in the present case."
According to the ICJ, Israel contended that Judge Elaraby, both in his previous professional capacity and in an interview given by him in August 2001 to an Egyptian newspaper, had been "actively engaged in opposition to Israel including on matters which go directly to aspects of the question now before the Court."
In its Order, the Court found that the activities Israel referred to were performed in Judge Elaraby's capacity as a diplomatic representative of his country, most of them many years before the question of the construction of a wall in the occupied Palestinian territory arose.
The Court also noted that the question was not an issue in the Tenth Emergency Special Session of the General Assembly until after Judge Elaraby had ceased to participate in that Session as a representative of Egypt. It further observed that in the newspaper interview in question, Judge Elaraby expressed no opinion on the question put in the present case.
In a dissenting opinion, Judge Thomas Buergenthal of the United States noted that in the interview Judge Elaraby gave two months before his election to the Court in 2001, he expressed views bearing on the credibility and validity of arguments likely to be presented by the interested parties to this case and likely to affect its outcome. Judge Buergenthal added, however, that he has no doubts whatsoever about the personal integrity of Judge Elaraby for whom he has the highest regard.
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Freed German prisoners seeks Lebanese nationality
Lebanon-Germany, Local, 2/4/2004
The German Steven Smeirak, who was released by Israel last week in the course of exchanging prisoners with the Lebanese Hizbullah Party, started yesterday travel measures to Lebanon in his goal to get the Lebanese nationality.
German police sources said that the police and all security agencies are watching Smeirak closely after a visit he had made to the Lebanese embassy in Berlin.
Worthy mentioning that Smeirak who embraced Islam and joined the Hizbullah party in Lebanon was spending a ten- year imprisonment sentence in Israel under the charge of planning to carry out an attack against the Israeli forces in 1997.
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Dyslexia land
By Sara Leibovich-Dar
Last week, B., a 10th-grade student in a prestigious school in the center of the country received the certificate she had long coveted, declaring that she suffers from a learning disability (LD). B. doesn't like school, doesn't do homework or prepare for exams, and she is frequently absent. Her low grades reflect her attitude. The solution, which she herself initiated, was to undergo psychological testing, which found she has a learning disability. Her affluent parents had no trouble paying about NIS 2,000 for the diagnosis. As a student suffering from LD, B. will get more time in exams, her spelling mistakes in Hebrew and English will be ignored, and she will take a specially adapted exam in language. In the 12th-grade matriculation exams, she will be expected to know only two-thirds of the course material in each subject.
"I have so many spelling mistakes, and I get blackouts in exams," B. says. "The LD diagnosis will help me get better grades. It can easily get me 10 more points in English."
B.'s mother helped her obtain the certificate. "It's partly spoiling her," she says. "It makes life easier. But I wanted to make things easier for her. She gets really uptight before exams, and I thought that if there was a way I could help her, then why not? Only time will tell if I did a smart thing. I'm not completely at ease about it, but she really put pressure on us. We're always paving the way for them. Children these days cope less with pressure. She can fight, but when she gets stuck I enter the picture."
Obtaining an LD certificate through assessment has become fashionable in prestigious schools throughout the country, no less than wearing designer clothes, carrying a cell phone and working on state-of-the-art computers. The LD assessment process costs between NIS 1,200 and NIS 3,000. Dov Orbach, the chairman of the committee of high-school principals in Tel Aviv, says that in the affluent northern sections of the city, 40 percent of the students are identified as suffering from LD. Adds Dr. Yehudit Eldor, director of the LD unit in the Education Ministry: "We found one school in an established area where no fewer than 80 percent of the students were diagnosed with LD."
By comparison, the national average of students with LD, according to a memorandum of the director general of the Education Ministry in December 2003, is about 10 percent. In schools in less affluent areas, the rate drops to 1 percent, and in some schools in these areas there are no LD students at all.
"It's absurd," says Dr. Oren Lamm, a neuropsychologist and LD expert who teaches in the field of therapeutic aspects of education at the University of Haifa and is the LD assessor at Haifa's Technion-Institute of Technology. "People from a good socioeconomic background are ready to really make an effort in the race to the top. In the competition for the prestigious faculties at the Technion, two points can be decisive. To get those two points, the parents and the students will do everything. It's not fair and it's unreasonable and it discriminates against everyone else. People's fates are decided according to an unfair datum. Even rich people who don't believe in `winging it' cheat to ensure that their children will not compete in the universities with their hands tied behind their backs in unfair contests against candidates who obtained matriculation certificates by means of easier conditions."
Not long ago, Dr. Lamm relates, a boy was brought to him for assessment. "I told the parents he did not have LD. They got angry and complained about me to the Education Ministry. Things have become so absurd that parents want to acquire the diagnosis at any price and if it doesn't work, they get mad."
Unfair competition
"It's the most painful wound in the education system," says Dr. Michal Shany, who runs a testing institute and teaches in the same track as Dr. Lamm at the University of Haifa. "What's going on in Israel in this sphere is unexampled anywhere else in the world. It has crossed all reasonable limits. The phenomenon of pampered kids who do not suffer from LD, but who are too lazy to do their homework, undercuts equality. It's time for the parents who do not seek these exemptions to raise an outcry."
One mother who declined to obtain exemptions for her son, says, "It is very frustrating to see how in every exam, half the class is tested orally and gets an exemption from spelling, while my son studies hard and passes a regular exam, with all its pitfalls."
The number of youngsters diagnosed with LD has been rising steadily in recent years. In 1995, 58,000 students were allowed to have special testing privileges because of LD, in 1997 the number was 114,000, and in 2001 there was an exponential leap to 313,140.
These privileges or exemptions, which the Education Ministry calls "hakalot" (literally, "alleviations") are granted to students according to three LD levels. At the first level are students who may be slow in reading and writing, have organizational difficulties or attention and concentration disorders, make numerous spelling mistakes, write illegibly, find it difficult to recall details from memory, or suffer from defective visual processing. They are eligible for privileges such as 25 percent more time to complete exams, not being penalized for spelling mistakes, having the tester copy the exam (the student writes it first, then reads it to a tester who writes it out), and/or use of an expanded table of mathematical formulas.
The second level includes students who have a significant disparity between their ability to express themselves orally and in writing, have difficulty in using a dictionary and/or have serious problems writing in English. They are allowed to read out their written exam to a tester, or have the questions read out to them via a tape, using an electronic dictionary in English, and then to read their answers into a tape recorder.
At the third level are students with exceptional disabilities that prevent them from answering parts of exams, with a disparity of two whole grades between their ability to express themselves in writing and orally on a given test, serious attention disorders, and/or difficulties in quantitative comprehension. These students receive the biggest exemptions. Their exams are specially tailored to accommodate their difficulties, or they are examined orally.
Educators are aware of the particularly high rate of students with various levels of LD at prestigious schools around the country, but very few dare to do anything about it.
"If you are a child who lives in an established neighborhood and your parents are well-connected and have money and are ambitious enough, you will get exemptions on your matriculation exams," says Dr. Orbach, the principal of a high school in North Tel Aviv, where 30 percent of the students have been diagnosed with LD. "Meaningful exemptions have a dramatic impact on the grade. A student with grades of 85 who gets another few points thanks to the privileges [will be put] in a different place in terms of the competition to get into university."
At the Alliance School in Tel Aviv, one of the city's top institutions, the LD rate is 27 percent. "Maybe there is more awareness here," says the principal, Varda Kagan. "There is greater awareness of LD in the homes here."
Aren't you ignoring a situation that is illogical and generates inequality?
Kagan: "I thought this was more or less what was happening everywhere in the country. I didn't know there were such large differences. That really is something of a problem. I have to think about it."
The school's educational counselor, Laike Zmiri, finds nothing to think about. "Studies are harder now, and the children get sent to be tested. That's legitimate. That's how it is in most schools."
Well, actually not. Did you know that the LD rate in schools located in less affluent areas is far lower?
Zmiri: "Maybe the parents there aren't aware of it. Here, the parents are willing to make the effort."
At Leo Baeck High School in Haifa, which is linked to the (Reform) Movement for Progressive Judaism, many students are from affluent areas. About a quarter are defined as learning disabled. According to Danny Fessler, the school's principal and general manager, "that's because we are very sensitive and patient with children who have special needs, and make great efforts to help them in their studies."
Or is it also because children with rich parents organize themselves certificates so they can get study concessions?
Fessler: "True, the usual rate in the population is between 10 and 15 percent, but with us, the overwhelming majority have some sort of disability."
Similarly, Hezi Sagiv, principal of the high school in the affluent community of Omer, a suburb of Be'er Sheva, thinks that the fact that 20 percent of his students have learning disabilities is unrelated to excessive testing for LD among children from the rich families of the community. It's due, he says, "to the very ability to make diagnoses. More and more students are diagnosed [with LD], and that makes it possible for them to cope."
Are you aware of the fact that these are not always genuine difficulties?
Sagiv: "I don't shut my eyes, I am aware of the exploitation of this playing field, but if they don't have it coming to them, we don't give it to them. Last week I personally refused to approve a number of exemptions. I prefer to attack the problem from the positive side, by helping those who really have difficulties. I don't give in to parents. I have a credo."
So how is it, that even with your credo, the rate of LD students in your school is almost double the national average?
"Awareness of the problem has increased over the years. People care about their children's achievements, so there are more diagnoses, and I welcome that."
Dr. Yehuda Yaakobson, principal of a school in Ramat Hasharon, an upscale town near Tel Aviv, where the LD rate is 22 percent, says: "Everyone who was diagnosed [with LD] really has learning disabilities. Rich people might seem to have an advantage, but I wouldn't construe that to mean that they are buying assessments with money" to get privileges.
In established communities, ongoing LD assessment begins at an early age. Ilana Ganor, principal of the junior high in Kochav Yair - which, like Omer, is among Israel's 10 richest communities - says 15 percent of the school's students have been diagnosed with LD, "a very high proportion for junior highs. But what disturbs me even more is those who need diagnosis, but aren't able to get it. The excessive LD testing makes life hard for us, but the discrimination works not against those who have, but against those who don't have."
In the education system LD is a sensitive subject. Many officials prefer to be vague about it and refuse to furnish information, claiming that the number of LD students in the schools is classified. Publicizing data on the subject will constitute an invasion of privacy, they say. Others maintain that they don't know the data, even though there is not one school principal or director of a municipal education department who doesn't have them at his fingertips.
"The principals have a dilemma," Orbach explains. "On the one hand, they authorize the exemptions, while on the other hand, they are afraid the high number of students who get them will undermine the school's image."
The parents' task
R. is a top student in 10th grade at a prestigious school in the center of the country. A few weeks ago he received the results of his assessment, which will give him extra time in exams. "Half my friends got exemptions," he says, "and I wanted them, too. I noticed that in subjects where you have to write a lot in exams, I ran out of time. I didn't want to get to the matriculation exams and find myself in a situation where I didn't have enough time. I explained it to my parents, and we went to a psychologist. I explained to her why I need more time, and she said I deserve extra time because sometimes I get stuck pulling things out of my memory and in written expression."
In his case, though, the principal refused to accept the certificate. Nevertheless, R.'s mother is certain she did the right thing: "Something was bothering the boy. We checked, and we discovered that he was right. I am a teacher and I know the resistance to special privileges in the system. That is not the case with my son."
G., a 12th-grade student, also wanted extra assistance. After spending two years with his family in the United States, G., an excellent student, was declared to be suffering from LD in Arabic and in Hebrew language. He was given extra time in the exams in those subjects and allowed to do Arabic exams in Hebrew. "I could get along without the added time," he says, "but it really helps. After everyone else finishes, I have another 20 minutes. I would say that the time is worth another 10 points in exams. A friend of mine also asked for extra time and got it. There is no situation in which you will ask for extra time and won't get it."
G.'s mother: "He has a minor disability, really minimal, in grammar, and he also has problems with the pointing of Hebrew script [inserting vowels below the letters]. It's a minor problem, and not because he's spoiled. If he were spoiled, we would have got him the exemptions in Arabic in elementary school."
Parents today want their children to be the best, says Dr. Shany, the owner of a testing institute. "As far as Israeli parents are concerned, the child has to get 100 in all subjects, and if he gets 70 he immediately has LD. You can't imagine how many phone calls the testers get. It's not moral. There are some kids who know how to get the certificate: They read slowly so they will be diagnosed as slow and will get more time on exams. The ones who are truly affected, who truly suffer from LD, somehow get lost. They don't want all the privileges - they want to be like everyone else; it takes me years to persuade them to accept help. That's how I know there really is a problem here."
What parents should do, says Shany, is "demand that the child study, get him help and see that he's doing the work, and not look for solutions in the form of exemptions. In the end, a student who doesn't have a problem and gets them is weakened over time. These days parents are asking for privileges for children in elementary school. Why? Work on the kid's spelling mistakes. We should be thinking about how to strengthen the children, not how to organize a `bypass' track for them ... For many parents, getting an assessment is the norm. If you don't do it, you're not considered to be a good parent. This is not a real answer. I tell about 15 percent of those who come to me that they don't need diagnosis."
What's wrong if a student gets a bit of extra help in school, which might also spare the need for a private tutor?
Shany: "The system doesn't check thoroughly whether the `alleviations' really help. I am not aware of any study in Israel that examined the average matriculation grades of those who were granted them."
New guidelines
Many LD assessments are carried out by the staff of Nitzan, the Israel Association for the Advancement of Children and Adults with Learning Disabilities. About 5,000 families are members of the association, which has institutes throughout the country where 10,000 tests are carried out every year. Is it in Nitzan's interest to increase the number of those diagnosed with LD, so that families will join the association and thus increase its strength? According to Ofra Elul, the chairwoman of Nitzan and the mother of an LD child, Israel is one of the only countries in the world in which a parents' organization is helping to develop the area of LD assessment. "However," she adds, "we don't have any interest in there being more LD cases."
How do you cope with the phenomenon of LD "impostors," those who abuse the LD assessment and exemption eligibility process?
Elul: "They are harmful to us and they give LD a bad name. But that's a minor element. They are a small percentage who don't deserve to be taken into account, just as there's no reason to take into account people who cheat the National Insurance Institute or who apply for unemployment insurance even though they are not unemployed."
It doesn't seem to be so minor. What about the fact that in some schools 30 percent of the students are diagnosed as suffering from LD?
"It's very possible that they are children with a small deficiency, and if they are given extra time they are able to realize their potential. What's the harm in that?"
The Education Ministry refrains from taking harsh steps against students who abuse the system of exemptions, though the director-general's December 2003 memorandum did make an effort to address the phenomenon. In the past, the schools own pedagogical councils approved the granting of special privileges. However, according to the memorandum, the councils will henceforth approve only exemptions for students with LD of the first two levels. According to Orbach, this method will not be effective, "because in practice the pedagogical councils approve almost all of them." The third-level LD exemptions will have to be approved by a district committee, whose members will include the district director, a representative from the ministry's examinations unit, a psychologist, a senior educational counselor and the principal of the school in question.
It's obviously too soon to tell whether the new guidelines will change the situation. At any rate, the State Comptroller's report of April 2002 found that the Education Ministry's supervision in this area was defective. "A review should first be made of all the schools where there is a high rate of exemptions relative to the number of students," the report said, "and of schools where the number of the privileges relative to the number of those sitting for matriculation exams increased sharply on previous years."
An attempt to enact legislation to this effect, however, failed. The Education Ministry objected to a bill concerning the rights of students with learning disabilities in the regular education system, which stipulated, among other points, that the identification and exemptions committees would be "school-based." The bill did not get past first reading (of three). The ministry claimed that its implementation would cost the taxpayers about NIS 1 billion, although various experts cited a lower figure in appearances before the Knesset Education Committee.
Dr. Yehudit Eldor, the director of the LD unit in the Education Ministry, is convinced that the district exemptions committees will filter out the impostors and thus solve the problem.
Maybe harsh measures, such as filing complaints to the police about the so-called impostors, would reduce the phenomenon?
Eldor: "We will follow a path of learning and educating. Maybe the parents are not to blame. They want to go where their child will be able to get higher grades. That is human nature. It's a complex subject. I have stories from all directions. Parents also want to know why I am making things difficult, when their child really does have a learning disability."
Members of the Knesset's Education Committee have their own opinions on the subject of abuse of LD exemptions.
"The copying and the manipulating start in first grade and it reaches the Knesset," said the committee chairman, MK Ilan Shalgi (Shinui), during a discussion on the subject. MK Uri Ariel (National Union): "Maybe some sort of mechanism has to be found to punish those who break the law and pretend, although we already have laws about impostors." And MK Yossi Sarid noted, "I am basically against imposture in all spheres of life."
Only Ruth Kaplan, the deputy Knesset secretary and the chairwoman of the Leshem Association for the Advancement of Dyslexic Students in Higher Education, spoke sharply against the phenomenon: "I urge the committee, together with Leshem, to condemn in the sharpest possible way the phenomenon of posing as someone with LD. That is an immoral thing to do."
Dr. Bilha Noy, from the Education Ministry, explained to the MKs, however, that it is very difficult to tell impostors from children who have genuine LD.
The National Parents' Organization has also reacted to the phenomenon, albeit not particularly strongly. "Just three months ago I learned about a parent whose son received exemptions even though he does not have LD," says Erez Frankel, the chairman of the organization. "That is very, very ugly and has to be acted on by means of punishment and deterrence. As soon as I identify parents like that, I condemn and deplore them."
How did you condemn this particular parent?
Frankel: "I wrote him a very sharp letter and used some very nasty terms to describe him. When we spot an instance [of false exemptions] we go into action, not like the authorities who keep everything quiet so as not to give the educational institution a bad name."
Then why didn't you take action such as going to the police, for example?
"Because for me it was the first time. If I see that it's a recurring trend, I will ensure that it's transferred to an external body for handling."
For the universities it's already a recurring problem. "In the wake of the bad habits they acquired in the education system, many Technion students also ask for concessions," Dr. Lamm, who is in charge of assessment for the institute, says. "Here, the rate of LD students is between 1.5 and 3 percent. We are vigilant. If the subject were as unsupervised as it is in the education system, we would have 20 percent."
Indeed, in the country's state-budgeted universities and colleges, only 4 percent of the students are diagnosed as suffering from LD.
Food and diagnosis
Educators and officials in the less affluent sections of the country are very concerned. "I came to Yeruham five years ago from the center of the country," says Haim Eisner, principal of the ORT vocational school in the southern development town. "I noticed that LD children did not get special privileges, while children with money did get them. In my school I decided that we would be responsible in this regard. We raised money, and today most of our children are tested and we are above the national average, with 20 percent. But we are an exceptional case."
The same 20 percent rate of LD exists in 12th grade in Kiryat Gat's religious high school. "But that's because we have 310 Ethiopian students in the school, a good many of whom have concessions because of gaps and lacunae," says the school principal, Rahel Buchbout. "Our problem isn't excessive assessment, but the opposite. Thirty children whose parents are in a bad financial way didn't undergo diagnosis this year. The parents say, `Let them get whatever they get in the matriculation exams, but if we don't have enough to eat we can't waste money on diagnosis.'"
In fact, there are many schools where the LD fashion is unknown. The LD rate in the high school of Rahat, a Bedouin city in the Negev, is between 1 and 2 percent. "With the economic situation today, there aren't a lot of people with money to spend on diagnoses," says Suleiman al-Huzail, the principal. "You put out NIS 1,400, but you're not sure you'll get what you want, so people aren't willing to spend the money on it."
The principal of Rodman High School in Kiryat Yam, near Acre, says that 5 percent of the students in his school suffer from LD - "and I would imagine that that's the true situation, though it could also be that when parents have to cope with problems of subsistence, they don't deal with the level of the child in school."
According to Michael Greenberg, the principal of a boys' religious school in the southern town of Netivot, where 6 percent of the children have been diagnosed with LD, "rich parents in Netivot, who obtained certificates for their children, did so not because they simply want to make things easier for the children, but because the children really need it. Our situation here is very different. As I speak to you I see a certain child in my mind's eye. As early as seventh grade he was found to have serious problems with his writing ability. In ninth grade he has deficiencies that weren't treated in the past. We want to assess him. I don't even approach the parents, because they don't have money to buy the boy clothes. We teachers buy clothes for him, in the market. In some cases there is also no one to talk to. As far as the parents are concerned, the boy can remain an ignoramus. And then an assessment stipend from the Education Ministry is requested."
This year the Netivot school submitted 10 requests for such stipends. Only five of the children received them. "Sometimes we manage to organize a deal - we find a psychologist who will do the diagnosis for free or we get donations. Sometimes we don't manage to organize a deal and then the boy does the matriculation exams without exemptions, and either he ends up without a matriculation certificate or his grades are so low that they're hardly worth anything."
In the Arab city of Taibeh, northeast of Kfar Sava, 10 percent of the students have learning disabilities. "The phenomenon of students who get fake certificates is almost nonexistent here," says Abd al-Zabar Awada, director of the municipal education department, "though it's hard for us to ascertain the reliability of the certificate. When a psychologist signs, we don't challenge it."
Similarly, Maggie Shani, the principal of Tichon Hadash high school in Kiryat Gat, says she is unaware of the phenomenon of faking LD in her school. "We have 10 percent LD. We try to get assessments for free. Sometimes we get financial support for a particular student, and we transfer it from the funding for the annual school trip to that purpose. The trend you talk about isn't accepted here. The students want to be like everyone else, not the exceptions."
Avi Biton, the director of the education department in the southern development town of Ofakim, says that the LD rate there is 7 percent. "When I hear about 30 percent, warning lights start to go on. From my point of view, that is not a real figure - it's a problematic one. It's the mirror of the Israeli society. Like everything for the rich, you can buy that, too."n
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Police to question PM Sharon today
By Baruch Kra
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will be questioned by the police's International Investigations Unit today about his suspected role in the so-called Greek island affair.
Sharon will be asked, among other things, whether he was aware of the multimillion dollar contract his son Gilad signed with contractor David Appel. Police will want to know what Sharon understood from a conversation with Appel in which the Likud kingmaker and real estate tycoon told him that his son was going to earn a lot of money.
The investigators will arrive early this morning at Sharon's official residence in Jerusalem, led, as they were last time Sharon was questioned, by Deputy Commander Yohanan Danino, the commander of the International Investigations Unit. Danino will be accompanied by Chief Superintendents Avital Knoller and Gideon Gabai.
The team was sent to complete the interrogation of Sharon after Central District Attorney Rachel Sheaber, who is in charge of the case for the prosecution after replacing Anat Savidor, decided that there was important evidence that necessitated asking the prime minister additional questions before deciding whether to prepare an indictment against him.
Sharon will be asked to explain transcripts of conversations between him and Appel that were tape recorded by police, who are particularly suspicious of the proximity between Appel's promise of great wealth for Sharon's son and Sharon's efforts on Appel's behalf to get the Ginaton farmlands near Lod rezoned for residential purposes.
Sharon will also be asked about his efforts on Appel's behalf in the so-called Greek island affair, in which Appel was trying to win the Greek government's permission for a huge resort on an empty island off the coast of Greece. Sharon is suspected of helping to lobby the Greek government for that purpose, among other things, by granting his patronage to a meeting between the Greek deputy foreign minister and Appel's commercial representative in Greece, Norman Skolnick.
The Greek island case has become the symbol of a series of police probes into whether Appel assisted Sharon's 1999 Likud primaries campaign and paid off Sharon's son, Gilad, to bribe Sharon into using his influence - both as foreign minister and as the minister in charge of the Israel Lands Administration - to help Appel's real estate deals in Israel and the abortive Greek island resort plan. Appel provided Sharon with 30 to 40 activists and a headquarters in the 1999 campaign, and he paid Gilad, who had no business experience in either tourism or marketing, some $700,000 to market the nonexistent tourist resort, promising him twice that if Appel received permission from the Greek government to build the resort and more if the resort was actually built.
The Cyril Kern link is not far behind
During his final review of the material in the Greek island case, which will begin next week, Attorney General Menachem Mazuz will also study the evidentiary material in another probe now being conducted by the National Fraud Squad, regarding the shell companies that raised money for Ariel Sharon's primary campaign and the loan his son Gilad received from businessman Cyril Kern.
The Tel Aviv District Court is supposed to decide in the coming days whether court orders issued against Gilad Sharon oblige him to give the police banking records from Austria. If the court decides that is the case and the Supreme Court refuses to hear an appeal, Gilad will hand over the documents, according to his lawyer, Micha Fettman. Once the investigators have those documents, police will try to complete the puzzle to find out who actually financed the millions of dollars that were transferred from BAWAG, the Austrian bank, to Gilad Sharon's accounts in Israel.
Police believe that certain suspects in the case have already been preparing for the possibility that the documents will reach the detectives and have already prepared answers to the potential questions they might be asked. But even so, prosecutors and police believe that they will be able to reach the truth in the case, as much material has been gathered over the past year.

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Labor in confusion
Shimon Peres was not precise on Tuesday when he told his Labor Party colleagues that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, in announcing that he had ordered plans drawn up for evacuating settlements from Gaza, had "adopted the policies of Labor." Precision is important in this case, as it relates to how Labor should function as the main opposition party in the complex reality created by Sharon's declaration.
Sharon's statement could indeed have far-reaching political and diplomatic significance, even if he does not execute the plan, or even if he was never sincere about implementing it. Declarations that shatter conventions can be important merely because they are stated aloud. However, Sharon's statement about his readiness to unilaterally evacuate 17 settlements from Gaza plus a few isolated ones in the West Bank is hardly a reflection of Labor's policies. In fact, it is not even a thought-out policy of its own.
Sharon will evacuate Gaza - if he indeed does so - because he was forced to do so. He will also evacuate the settlements believing that doing so will make it easier for Israel to hold onto large swathes of the West Bank, with its many Jewish settlements. There is no place for negotiations with the Palestinians in such a narrow perspective, which is based on an illusion. Nor is there any room in such a perspective for a viable Palestinian state living side by side in peace with Israel.
Under such circumstances - in light of both the importance of Sharon's statement and its limitations - Labor must continue offering the public a political alternative with a broad horizon. Now, in particular, as Sharon is taking an initial and very partial step in the proper direction, Labor must stick to a policy for an overall comprehensive peace, predicated on two nations living as free peoples, side by side, for generations to come.
To fulfill its duty now as the opposition, the Labor Party should be presenting itself to the public as a convincing alternative to the country's leadership. But that seems to be beyond the party's depleted strength. On Tuesday, Labor's convention extended Shimon Peres's "temporary" term as chairman of the movement and, as he always insists on adding, its candidate for prime minister.
Peres indeed stands head and shoulders above the other personalities in the front ranks of the Labor Party. But there lies the rub. Leaving him in office evidently prevents natural processes from which new leadership forces could emerge in the party. Instead, Peres and the issue of his leadership has become a target for the slings and arrows of others who claim the crown.
And that is the party's loss. But more importantly, Israeli democracy is weakened because of Labor's inability to conduct a change of leadership and appear to the public as a convincing alternative.
It is entirely possible that in the wake of Sharon's declaration about leaving Gaza - and if things actually reach the operational stage - Labor will be called upon to decide whether and how to help Sharon implement his partial move. But that is still to come. Now, and in the foreseeable future, the opposition party's supreme purpose is to consistently present a clear and serious peace policy to the public.
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Analysis / Referendum won't solve all of Sharon's problems
By Yossi Verter, Haaretz Correspondent
When Prime Minister Ariel Sharon told reporters in the Knesset dining room Wednesday that he had heard that morning about a bill for a referendum and that he likes the idea, it was a typical Sharonism, with that familiar, slight tone of amusement in his voice.
For the last two to three weeks, Sharon's office has been examining the legal and political ramifications of a referendum. The latest idea is for a "moral" referendum, which won't require legislation.
In any case, the results of the referendum are already known. As far as Sharon is concerned, it's pretty much a sure bet, without any political risk attached. Not only would a referendum highlight the massive public support for a Gaza withdrawal, it would also serve as an easy way out for several key Likud ministers who oppose the withdrawal and the unilateral disengagement, such as Benjamin Netanyahu, Silvan Shalom, Shaul Mofaz and Limor Livnat. After all, they'll be able to say, the people have spoken.
A referendum would also give the so-called "Rebels" in the Likud, some of whom are no more than publicity hounds, a good excuse to retract their threats against Sharon.
But the referendum is not a magic formula that will solve all of Sharon's political problems. The coalition parties on the right have vowed to quit after the government decides on evacuating the 21 settlements. A referendum held after that decision could be so shocking as to lead to a unity government, which is a very complicated matter mid-term, or to new elections - and on the way there's the decision by Attorney General Menachem Mazuz in the Sharon family affairs, which will determine if the prime minister even stays in office.
On his way to a referendum, the prime minister will also have to surmount some other hurdles: the trip to the U.S. and his conversation with President Bush about the disengagement plan; a mini-referendum among the Likud rank and file that Sharon is considering as the result of a proposal by Minister Yisrael Katz; and the Likud convention, which is due to meet at the end of the month for a series of votes on constitutional issues aimed at constraining Sharon from every direction.
Sharon associates are pulling out the stops to postpone the convention but even if it is delayed, it will take place, and Sharon could come out of it a battered and bruised prime minister and party leader.
The plethora of headlines provided by the prime minister in recent days at the rate of nearly one a day- the evacuation, another government, early elections, a referendum - is becoming reminiscent of his predecessor, Ehud Barak, in the twilight weeks and months of his administration.
Of course the flood of headlines has nothing to do with the investigations and the upcoming decision by Mazuz. Any such connection is made by the reader alone. Sharon simply suddenly regretted his three years of silence and decided to make it easier for Elhanan Tennenbaum, who was kidnapped during Barak's term, to feel at home.
A senior source close to Sharon said this week he is under the impression that while Sharon has crossed a Rubicon, he doesn't have clue what he will find on the other side, politically. Will he be able to get the evacuation through the Likud? What are the chances Labor would join his government and under what conditions?
Sharon is walking a tightrope, said the source, adding, if it was up to the prime minister, he'd rather do nothing until the end of his term in 2007. But Sharon understands that he cannot do that. He sees the economy straining, the terror, the American pressure, and the slipping numbers in the opinion polls.
Sharon, who is supposed to be questioned again Thursday, is "trying a political process in a legal proceeding," as one Likud wag put it and even if he really does mean to go ahead with the evacuation and turn his back on his native constituency, his beloved settlers, the timing casts a long shadow over it all.
He is suspected of trying to impress the liberal left, and the attorney general, to deter him from not only deposing a prime minister but halting a historic process. His ministers, meanwhile, grit their teeth, feeling exploited even if some agree in general with his idea.
------------------------------------------------------

Iran to join preparations for second stage of prisoner swap
By Yoav Stern, Haaretz Correspondent
Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi will begin a two-day visit to Beirut on Thursday to take part in the preparations for the second stage of the prisoner exchange deal between Israel and Hezbollah.
Kharazi said earlier this week he was traveling to Lebanon to help set up a committee to find out what happened to four Iranian diplomats who went missing in 1982.
Iran accuses Israel of holding the diplomats; but Israel says they were last seen held by Christian falanges in Lebanon.
According to the prisoner swap agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered by German mediator Ernst Uhrlau, two committees are to be formed; each will consist of representatives from Israel, Hezbollah, Iran and Germany.
One committee will try to trace the four Iranian diplomats, while the other will seek new information on missing Israel Air Force navigator Ron Arad.
Kharazi's involvement will allow Iran to pass on information about Arad to Israel through Hezbollah, while officially denying doing so, Israeli sources believe.
In the past, every time Israel demanded to get Arad back, the Iranians raised the issue of the four missing diplomats.
Now that the return of Arad or receiving information about him are being negotiated, Iran has a chance to follow the talks closely.
---------------------------------------------------------
EU criticizes separation fence in brief to Hague court
By Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondent
In its brief to the International Court of Justice in The Hague, the European Union expresses grave criticism of Israel's separation fence and cites official European condemnations. The document, however, also voices reservations about raising the issue with the ICJ, noting that a legal discussion is not appropriate and will not serve to advance the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians.
Israel has welcomed and commended this stand on the part of the Europeans.
In its brief, France advises the tribunal not to deal with the separation fence, but adds that if the judges decide to go ahead, France's position is that the fence is illegal.
Switzerland and Sweden submitted briefs supporting the Palestinians' position against the fence. The Swedes did not relate to the question of whether or not the tribunal was empowered to deal with the issue.
Government sources in Jerusalem expressed satisfaction with the papers submitted by Britain and Germany that focused on their reservations about holding such a discussion in The Hague. Both the British and the Americans, however, made mention of their opposition to the route taken by the fence.
The defense minister's military adjutant, Brigadier General Mike Herzog, has completed his compilation of security data about the fence. Herzog heads the security team of the Israeli steering committee dealing with The Hague.
Herzog's document consists of three parts - an analysis of the background for setting up the fence, including data on Palestinian terror against Israel; an explanation of the structure of the fence and the considerations borne in mind when planning its route; and information about the success of the fence in the Gaza Strip and the northern West Bank in preventing terror and crime.

Posted by maximpost at 11:45 PM EST
Permalink

>> ROYAL MESS?

Saud's royal house of cards
Restless youth, resurgent fundamentalism and a resentful middle class are an increasingly imminent threat to Saudi Arabia's rulers -- and to oil-addicted Westerners.
By Jon D. Markman
Saudi Arabia faces its gravest economic, social and political threat in years as hundreds of thousands of Muslims make their annual hajj to the nation's holy sites this week. And if the House of Saud is threatened, so, too, are the price of oil and the great American right to own two SUVs, a Harley and an RV.
The menace, long simmering under the surface of a seemingly content society, has boiled to the surface recently with clashes between Saudi police and armed extremists in Riyadh and Mecca. And we're not talking about the 250-plus pilgrims trampled while stoning Satan last weekend.
Last week, the Independent newspaper of Great Britain reported "an extraordinary level of political violence" in the al-Jouf province, power base of the al-Sudairy branch of the royal family, including assassinations of the deputy governor, police chief and a judge.
The Saudi government was forced Thursday to deny accounts in their own media of the existence of terrorist training camps in the kingdom. In a land already ruled with an iron fist, the German news service DPA reported that more than 1,000 surveillance cameras had been installed on roads to allow soldiers to monitor pilgrims' every move.
A South Africa newspaper, the Cape Argus, said police in its country had intercepted a Pakistani plot to use fake passports to fly to Saudi Arabia via Cape Town.
And Reuters reported that diplomats said the Saudi government was deeply worried the hajj could become a target for attack or be used as a cover for militants to infiltrate the kingdom. In 2003, more than 50 people died in suicide bombings in Riyadh.
Even if violent disruption is avoided this week, there is little doubt that extremist elements are gaining strength in the homeland of the West's most reliable Arab partner. The problem is not just al-Qaeda, which recruited most of the 9/11 suicide hijackers there. According to veteran observer John Bradley of the Independent, it's also merchant families and tribes who were prominent in the country before the Sauds consolidated power in the early part of the last century and now see a chance to reassert themselves upon the death of the aged, ailing King Fahd.
American investors ignore this danger at their peril. For if three disparate forces hook up -- the disenfranchised non-royal merchant class, religious fundamentalists and disaffected youths -- our cheap, easy access to the Saudis' vast petroleum reserves could be threatened for anywhere from a few weeks to years, sending oil prices north of $60.
Next week, I'll explain the many ways to hedge this menace by buying shares of small U.S. and Canadian energy producers. But for now, let's try to better understand the Saudi turmoil.
Disillusionment of the young
On paper, the Saudi succession after Fahd dies is clear: His 81-year-old brother, Abdullah, the crown prince, is next in line, and after him is another brother, 80-year-old Sultan. Thomas Lippman, author of the terrific new book "Inside the Mirage: America's Fragile Partnership with Saudi Arabia," said it's not clear there is a designated successor beyond those two. "There are just six people who have an idea of what would happen next, and I'm not one of them," quipped the former Washington Post foreign correspondent.
Lippman puts the chance of civil war at less than 10%. But he confirms that the amount of guns and explosives seized in recent months in raids by Saudi police -- munitions smuggled across the border from Iraq and Yemen -- has been staggering. The unrest stems as much from social and political complaints as religion. The country suffers from an unemployment rate upward of 20%, as the petroleum-industry work that is not automated is run by foreigners. Lippman says today's 24-year-old Saudi has two handicaps as he looks at the workplace: He grew up with a sense of entitlement because the country was rolling in cash, and his heavily religious education did not prepare him for a role in the world economy.
Like many developing countries, Lippman says, the Saudis have put too high a premium on having their elite kids get doctoral degrees, and not enough on having its middle-class kids get the sort of bachelor's degrees that help create a modern services and petrochemical plant workforce. Saudi Arabia has world-class oil derivatives industries -- fertilizer, plastics and industrial feedstock -- to supplement its vast crude oil production. But you may be surprised to learn that agriculture is the country's leading employer and its second-largest contributor to GDP, as it is self-sufficient in wheat, dairy products and poultry. Most of these jobs go to foreigners, also.
Historically, revolutions do not well up from the peasantry -- they come from the upwardly mobile class, like silversmith Paul Revere and lawyer John Adams in colonial America -- whose rising expectations are frustrated. Lippman points out that Saudi Arabia is plagued with a large swath of young people who have been "inculcated with the wrong kinds of ideas, don't have enough to do, truly resent the dominance and incursion of Americans into their society and have learned from their textbooks about the duty of Muslims to wage jihad against infidels." All the while, they face declining opportunities for personal economic advancement. "That's a lot to think about as you sit in coffeehouses listening to recordings of rabble rousers," Lippman said.
An extreme element in Saudi Arabia aspires to a Taliban-style state, a concept that has deep roots in the country's past. As Middle East scholar Daniel Pipes pointed out in an interview, al-Qaeda is an ideological descendent of a turn-of-the-century religious army known as the Ikhwan, or "brotherhood," which practiced a puritanical brand of Islam known as Wahhabism. Ibn Saud compromised with the Ikhwan by letting them run the country's educational and judicial system while he tried to make a buck by allowing infidel Americans drill for oil. But the idea of a purer, pre-Western state has remained, and Osama bin Laden is the archetype of those who want the heathens to take their lipstick, lattes and Big Macs and go home.
Will the monarchy prevail?
Of course, there are key differences between Saudi Arabia today and the classic Middle East revolution that occurred in 1970s Iran: The middle class is largely content; the Saudi royal family has thousands of male members infiltrated into every corner of social, political and military life; and the fundamentalist mullahs are on the government dole, not independent. Also, virtually all Muslims in Iran were united in their loathing of the Shah, whom they viewed as a usurper who extravagantly glorified the country's pre-Islam heritage, while Saudi citizens acknowledge the Bedouin roots of their own rulers. And also unlike Iran, or Nicaragua for that matter, there are few mountains or jungles in which insurgents can effectively hide except in the remote south.
However, this is a time of great uncertainty in Saudi Arabia as leaders look north across their border with Iraq and fret over the prospect of either a liberal secular democracy or Shiite theocracy (flip a coin) in Baghdad. Thus, they have allowed modest reforms, such as the limited municipal elections; economic reforms, such as the slow privatization of the telecommunications industry, national airline and postal system; and social reforms, such as the creation of independent courts to adjudicate commercial litigation.
The question is whether the Saudis can rev out of the 19th century fast enough to satisfy the yearnings of repressed GenNexters while at the same time not alienating their fundamentalist power base. Every time you hear about new incidents of explosive conflict within the kingdom, don't toss if off as just another remote overseas quarrel. Read between the lines to determine whether it is one more step toward a civil war that will irretrievably alter our access to the lifeblood of our electronic and motorized way of life.
Both Lippman and Pipes are betting on the monarchy, which has proven relentless so far in crushing its opposition, and point out that even a resolutely anti-American post-Saudi regime would probably eventually sell oil to the West to keep the cash flowing anyway. But just in case al-Qaeda or its permutations prove more diabolically clever than expected, next week I'll focus on the North American energy producers who would benefit most from higher oil prices and, at any rate, can do extremely well amid current supply uncertainty at $30 oil and $5.25 natural gas.
Fine Print
Lippman's book, which was just published in January, is really a fascinating, fast read. You can find the book at MSN Shopping. Here's a transcript of remarks he made at a Johns Hopkins University panel on U.S.-Saudi relations in November. . . . Daniel Pipes keeps an up-to-date Web site of his articles and speeches, and also a weblog. . . . Keep current on Saudi news at the Saudi Times Web site. . . . There are numerous independent sites on Saudi culture and history, such as www.alfaadel.com, as well as more official sites like the Saudi-US Relations Information Service. . . . Last week, I described Parlux Fragrances (PARL, news, msgs) as a relatively inexpensive small cap worth a look. Bill Mann, senior editor at Motley Fool, wrote to say he disagreed and referenced his Aug. 15, 2003 story; see it here. Meanwhile, Abraxas Petroleum (ABP, news, msgs), described in the same column, had a strong run last week. I spoke to chief executive and founder Robert L.G. Watson last week, who said his company is "very happy" in the current environment, is paying down the debt that pressured the stock last year, and expects to be profitable on a GAAP basis this year. . . . To follow commodity futures prices ranging from natural gas and gold to soybeans, live cattle and the euro, the best free page on the Web is this one at Barchart.com.

Jon D. Markman is publisher of StockTactics Advisor, an independent weekly investment newsletter, as well as senior strategist and portfolio manager at Pinnacle Investment Advisors. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he welcomes column critiques and comments at jdm68@lycos.com. At the time of publication, Markman did not have positions in any securities mentioned in this column.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Jemaah Islamiyah Group `Degraded,' Downer Says (Update1)
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Jemaah Islamiyah, a Southeast Asian terrorist group linked to al-Qaeda, is ``degraded,'' not yet defeated, Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said as an Asia-Pacific anti-terrorism conference started in Bali.
``JI's capacities have been degraded, but certainly not defeated,'' Downer said late yesterday in Bali, according to a Foreign Ministry transcript e-mailed to Bloomberg. ``They have been recruiting and trying to build their strength. There is still a long way to go and the one thing we shouldn't become is complacent,'' Downer said.
At the forum, Australia will propose establishing a training camp for police fighting terrorism in the Asia-Pacific region and ways to share intelligence, Downer said. Ministers and officials from the U.S., China, Japan and 25 other nations are attending the two-day meeting starting today.
Australia and Indonesia, hosting the meeting, have been cooperating since terrorist bombings in Bali in October 2002 killed 202 people, 88 of them Australians. Jemaah Islamiyah was blamed for the bombing. Investigations led to Indonesian police arresting 35 people, many of whom have gone on trial. Three have been sentenced to death and three given life terms.
``Terrorism can't be solved through any one country acting alone,'' Downer said in Bali. ``Australia and Indonesia have set up a bit of a template for the region through our co-operation post-Bali bombing.''
Money Laundering
Australia and Indonesia today agreed to share financial intelligence in a bid to stymie money laundering and terrorism funding, said Australian Attorney General Philip Ruddock.
Australia has agreements to swap finance intelligence with 24 other nations, including the U.S. and the U.K.
``Sharing this intelligence is vital in the prevention and detection of financial crimes, money laundering and the financing of terrorism,'' Ruddock said in an e-mailed statement.
Hambali, also known as Riduan Isamuddin, the suspected leader of the al-Qaeda terrorist network in Southeast Asia and the former operations chief of Jemaah Islamiyah, was arrested in Thailand in August last year. He is in U.S. custody.
``In time, we would be interested in direct access to Hambali,'' Downer said. ``At the moment, the American process is working alright.''
To contact the reporter on this story:
Gemma Daley in Canberra at
or gdaley@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor for this story:
Paul Tighe at
or ptighe@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: February 3, 2004 23:57 EST

?2004 Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved.

---------------------------------------------------

Fed's Moskow Says Strong U.S. Economic Growth Won't Produce Inflation Soon
Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials ``expect'' more rapid growth this year won't cause inflation to accelerate soon because there are still ample amounts of unused labor and industrial capacity in the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow said.
``We have yet to see the kinds of pressure on labor and capital resources that often signal an increase in inflation,'' Moskow said in the text of remarks to the St. Joseph County, Indiana, Chamber of Commerce. ``And certainly our most recent numbers confirm that inflation is still extremely low.''
The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditure price index minus food and energy, rose just 0.7 percent for the 12 months ending December, the smallest increase in 44 years of record keeping, the Commerce Department reported yesterday.
The slow pace of price increases came even as the economy grew at a 4 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, following an 8.2 percent pace of growth between July and September. That suggests growth can remain elevated for some time before resources get tight enough to increase inflationary pressures.
``Today, the unemployment rate is elevated and industrial capacity utilization is below average -- both evidence of excess resources,'' Moskow said. ``Even with the solid growth expected as we move forward, slack resources could persist for some time.''
Momentum Growing
Moskow is the first member of the Fed's Open Market Committee to speak following the most recent policy meeting on Jan. 28. In a statement following their decision to leave the benchmark overnight bank lending rate unchanged at 1 percent, policy makers removed a pledge to keep rates low for a ``considerable period,'' substituting instead a promise to be ``patient in removing its policy accommodation.''
Traders in interest rate futures contracts took that to mean the central bank would consider raising interest rates sooner than had been expected. The implied yield on fed funds futures suggests they now expect the Fed to raise rates by the third quarter of 2004.
Moskow, who is a non-voting member of the Fed's rate-setting Open Market Committee member this year, said the economy is `beginning to pick up momentum' and he ``wouldn't be surprised'' if growth is faster than consensus for 2004, which he put at ``around 4 percent.'' The 2004 budget of President George W. Bush forecasts growth of 4.4 percent this year. The latest Blue Chip Economic Indicators consensus estimate is for 4.6 percent growth this year.
Employment Concern
Consumer spending is holding up and business investment has risen ``strongly'' in recent months, Moskow said. ``Furthermore, business confidence has been improving. The general tone of our contacts' reports on business conditions is noticeably better than it was during the summer.''
He suggested that should ``create conditions for businesses to increase hiring and utilize much of the economy's excess capacity'' this year.
The problem is that hasn't happened yet, he said. ``Labor markets are still a key area of weakness,'' Moskow said. ``Although the unemployment rate is down a half percentage point from its recent peak in May, employment growth has been disappointing.''
The economy created just 1,000 jobs in December, far fewer than the 150,000 median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
Given that, the ``big question'' is whether ``the most recent surge in demand will sustain itself,'' he said. ``Even though the outlook calls for strong GDP growth, so long as the output gap persists and there are diminished pressures on resources, inflation rates are unlikely to increase significantly.''
To contact the reporter on this story:
Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor of this story:
Kevin Miller at kmiller@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: February 3, 2004 12:40 EST

?2004 Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
White House seeks to loan U.N. funds for renovations

By Betsy Pisik and David R. Sands
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
The Bush administration's new budget includes a $1.2 billion, 30-year loan to renovate the aging United Nations headquarters and build a new annex, although U.N. officials expressed disappointment that Washington will charge interest on the loan.
The loan was part of a $31.5 billion foreign-operations budget request released Monday that also includes major new funding for the fight against AIDS and a revamped U.S. foreign-aid program targeting poor countries that implement political and social reforms.
State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said yesterday the loan request, contained in the foreign-operations account of President Bush's proposed fiscal 2005 budget, was a "practical way to move forward" with U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan's plan to renovate and modernize the U.N. headquarters.
The loan to fund the U.N. Capital Master Plan still must win approval by Congress and the U.N. General Assembly. The world body must agree to accept the 5.54 percent interest rate. Interest and principal is to be paid off by all member states.
The loan announcement came on a day when Mr. Annan was in Washington for meetings with Mr. Bush and other senior administration leaders on the troubled political transition in Iraq.
Catherine Bertini, the U.N. undersecretary-general for administration and management, who accompanied Mr. Annan on his Washington trip, called the loan provision "great."
"It's exactly what we wanted, but we were hoping it would be interest-free," she said.
If approved, Washington will pay out $400 million a year for three years, and the organization will have 30 years to pay it back, plus interest. The total bill, with interest, will be close to $2.5 billion.
As part of its assessed contribution to the U.N. budget, the United States will supply 22 percent of that repayment figure -- $265 million on the principal alone.
Diplomats said yesterday they did not know enough about the loan to comment, but several were dismayed that Washington would charge interest.
One European envoy noted that the Swiss government donated the building and most of the operating costs for U.N. operations in Geneva.
The highly recognizable U.N. Secretariat building, the best-known example of the International architectural style, is dangerously outdated and in disrepair.
The 39-story, green-glass rectangle leaks heat in winter and air-conditioning in summer, is riddled with asbestos and lacks a sprinkler system.
A 2002 report from the U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) affirmed the need for a speedy interior renovation, noting that each year's delay would add millions to the project's cost.
The GAO also backed the U.N. suggestion of a second office tower, which would house U.N. staff during the three-year renovation, and then consolidate far-flung agencies, programs and offices now renting space. The city of New York has made available a nearby asphalt playground for the proposed tower, although the community is reluctant to see it developed.
State Department officials, briefing reporters on background yesterday, said Mr. Bush's proposed foreign-operations budget cuts back on some traditional bilateral aid programs to fulfill the president's funding promises for AIDS and for the new Millennium Challenge Account, a program to target development assistance to countries that embrace economic and political reforms.
c Betsy Pisik reported from New York.

>> BLOOMBERG WATCH...
The Brian Lehrer Show
http://www.wnyc.org/shows/bl/episodes/01282004
Photo by Edward Reed
Mike on Mic
Wednesday, January 28, 2004
Michael Bloomberg has been Mayor of New York for two years. In that time, he's taken control of city schools, reined in the budget, and turned City Hall Park into an open-air gallery for contemporary sculpture.

>> SMOKE? WHERE?
http://www.wnyc.org/shows/bl/episodes/current
Human Traffic
Suzanne Tomatore Director, Immigrant Women and Children Project , Association of the Bar of the City of New York Fund, Inc.
on the problem of human trafficking in the New York area

>> HISTORY AND WMD HUNTS...
http://www.wnyc.org/shows/lopate/episodes/current
Pox Japonica
Wednesday, February 04, 2004
During World War II, Japanese medical researchers intentionally spread cholera, typhoid, dysentery, and anthrax throughout China, killing an estimated 580,000 innocent people. Daniel Barenblatt is here to talk about Axis Japan's secret germ warfare experiments.
Daniel Barenblatt
Daniel Barenblatt's new book is A Plague Upon Humanity: The Secret Genocide of Axis Japan's Germ Warfare Operation. It's about Japan's notorious Unit 731, a research facility headed by Dr. Shiro Ishii, also known as Japan's answer to Josef Mengele.

>>

A Tale of Two Reports
David Kay and Lord Hutton.
By Christopher Hitchens
Posted Friday, Jan. 30, 2004, at 8:55 AM PT
David Kay
Those who love the Near East are fond of repeating the legendary anecdotes of one Nasreddin Hodja, a sort of Ottoman Muslim Aesop of the region with a big following among Greeks and Greek Cypriots as well as among Turks, Syrians, Lebanese, Iraqis, and others. On one occasion, this folkloric wise man went to the hammam, or Turkish steam bath. His undistinguished and modest demeanor did not recommend him to the attendants, who gave him brief and perfunctory attention before hustling him out to make room for more prosperous customers. They were duly astonished when he produced an enormous tip from under his robes, and when he paid a return visit some time later, they were waiting for him with the richest and warmest towels, the longest and most detailed rubdown, the finest oils, the most leisurely service of sherbet, a long soak, and the most obsequious attendants. As he departed, the old man dropped a few meager coppers into their outstretched palms and, when they began to protest, told them: "The last tip was for this time. This tip is for the previous time."
So Saddam Hussein finally got his reward for all the unpunished times. Well, history doesn't move in a straight line, and irony is a dialectical hairpin. But if he really didn't have any stores of unlawful WMD, it was very dumb of him to act as if he still did or perhaps even to believe that he still did. And it seems perfectly idiotic of anybody to complain that we have now found this out (always assuming that we have, and that there's no more disclosure to come). This highly pertinent and useful discovery could only be made by way of regime change. And the knowledge that Iraq can be finally and fully certified as disarmed, and that it won't be able to rearm under a Caligula regime, is surely a piece of knowledge worth having in its own right and for its own sake.
David Kay and his colleagues in the post-1991 inspections met with every possible kind of evasion, deceit, and concealment. Then they had to watch as their most golden inside informers, the Kamel brothers, were lured back to Iraq by their father-in-law on a promise of safe conduct and put to death at once. Who would trust a word uttered by this gang, after that? It has since been established, by the Kay report, that there was a Baath plan to purchase weapons from North Korea, that materials had been hidden in the homes of scientists, and that there was a concealment program run by Qusai Hussein in person. This may look less menacing now that it has been exposed to the daylight, but there was no reason not to take it extremely seriously when it was presented as latent.
How come our intelligence agencies were so easily misled? This is an excellent question, which has lain upon the table ever since they left us defenseless in September 2001. The case for a thorough purge of the CIA would have been easier to make if the antiwar liberals had not gone on parroting the Langley line, which was to underestimate on some things and to overstate on others. The booby prize here goes (again) to Maureen Dowd, who in her column on David Kay on Jan. 29 said that the agency was "probably relying too much on the Arabian Nights tales of Ahmad Chalabi, eager to spread the word of Saddam's imaginary nuclear-tipped weapons juggernaut because it suited his own ambitions--and that of his Pentagon pals." As everyone with the slightest knowledge is well aware, the CIA was smearing and sabotaging Chalabi until the week of the fall of Baghdad and continues to do so. It remains, within the institutions of the U.S. government, the most devout opponent of regime change with the arguable exception of the Department of State.
If you want another free laugh, or another glimpse of the tiny-minded literalism of the neutralists and isolationists, take a look at the other "scandal" that has just been exploded by Lord Hutton's inquiry in London. One of Tony Blair's advisers, Jonathan Powell, changed the wording of a report in the following way. It had originally read: "Saddam Hussein is willing to use chemical and biological weapons if he believes his regime is under threat." The Blairite alteration removed the last eight words. Since everything was a threat in Saddam's disordered mind, and since he had used such weapons in the past as weapons of aggression inside and outside his own borders, the only "politicization of intelligence" would have occurred if the eight words had been left in, to give the impression that he would only fight in self-defense. The excised phrase lingers on, as a reminder that the opponents of regime change also believed in the existence of the weapons.
The British government's claim that such weaponry was deployable within "45" minutes is irrelevant from both sides, since if the weapons weren't there they couldn't be used at all, and if they were there they presumably existed in some condition of readiness. Many newspapers in London sold extra copies on the bannered "45 Minutes" headline and have been in a vengeful state ever since over their own credulity. That can't be helped. In this ontological argument, nobody claimed that there was no WMD problem to begin with. (German intelligence reported to Gerhard Schr?der that Saddam was within measurable distance of getting a nuke: That didn't deter the chancellor in the least from adopting an utterly complacent approach.)
It's been a few weeks since I have heard any new conspiracy theories about the suicide of Dr. David Kelly, who was himself a firm believer in "regime change" as the precondition for inspections. It has now been established that his identity was given away by Andrew Gilligan, a BBC journalist whose reportorial standards were a byword before he became famous. The most inventive theory I have heard this week is that Lord Hutton is an Ulsterman and that Gilligan is a republican-sounding kind of Irish name, and that this is all a subtext of the age-old struggle between Orange and Green. That'll do fine to keep the conversation going, as this ridiculous and paltry controversy recedes into the past.
Christopher Hitchens is a columnist for Vanity Fair and a regular contributor to Slate. His most recent book is A Long Short War: The Postponed Liberation of Iraq.

Photograph of David Kay by Mannie Garcia/Reuters.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SPIEGEL ONLINE - 04. Februar 2004, 17:43
URL: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,284922,00.html
Stasi
Anatolische Fliegenf?nger
Von Hans Michael Kloth
Nicht nur Bundesb?rger werkelten als West-IM f?r Erich Mielkes Stasi. Eine neue Studie der Birthler-Beh?rde beschreibt, wie das MfS in der Bundesrepublik auch unter t?rkischen Gastarbeitern und anderen Ausl?ndern jede Menge Spitzel warb. Ein Spezialauftrag: DDR-Frauen k?dern, die dem SED-Staat durch Heirat entkommen wollten.
AP
Stasi-Chef Mielke (1982):Argwohn gegen Ausl?nder
Es muss schon ziemlich frustig f?r die selbstbewussten Jungs von der DDR-Grenztruppe gewesen sein - wenn einer der 115 000 t?rkischen Gastarbeiter in West-Berlin zwischen Ost- und Westteil der geteilten Stadt wechselte, machten sie beim Filzen wieder und wieder den gleichen Fund: "Hunderte von Kontaktanschriften und Telefonnummern von DDR-B?rgerinnen", registrierte 1981 eine MfS-Bilanz, w?rden jedes Jahr bei ein- und ausreisenden T?rken aus West-Berlin sichergestellt.
Den Erfolg bei der DDR-Damenwelt neideten die Genossen den Besuchern aber nicht nur pers?nlich. Noch mehr f?rchtete die Stasi, dass die "kaum zu kontrollierenden operativen Kontakte" der monatlich 6000 t?rkischen Tagesbesucher zur ostdeutschen Weiblichkeit Spionageaktivit?ten oder "gesetzwidrige Antragstellungen zur Ausreise" nach sich ziehen k?nnten: Sich einen Westler zu angeln war schlie?lich eine der wenigen wirklich viel versprechenden Methoden, die SED-Diktatur ohne langes Warten oder gar Knast zu verlassen.
Mielke selbst hatte es schon immer geahnt; bereits Anfang der siebziger Jahre argw?hnte er, "viele asoziale und kriminell aufgefallene Ausl?nder" k?nnten bei Besuchen in der "Hauptstadt der DDR" die Sicherheit des Arbeiter- und Bauernstaates gef?hrden. Es sei "nicht einfach, diese Leute zumindest soweit unter Kontrolle zu halten, dass sie uns keinen Schaden zuf?gen k?nnen".
So gab er mit einem eigenen "Ausl?nderbefehl" 1981 den Startschuss f?r eine Anwerbungskampagne unter Nichtdeutschen speziell in West-Berlin, um "von dort ausgehende feindliche und politisch sch?digende Aktivit?ten gegen die DDR" zu verhindern. Als die DDR 1989 unterging, waren dann immerhin f?nf Prozent der West-IM Ausl?nder, sch?tzt die Birthler-Beh?rde in einer aktuellen Studie - eine Quote, die nicht weit unter dem Ausl?nderanteil an der westdeutschen Gesamtbev?lkerung von 7,7 Prozent lag. Richtig eingesetzte "Ausl?nder-IM", so die Erkenntnis der MfS-F?hrung, k?nnten "Unglaubliches leisten".
AP
Stasi-Akten: Viele "Gastarbeiter" beim MfS
Besonderes Interesse hatten die Schlapph?te in der Lichtenberger Normannenstrasse an den politischen Aktivit?ten innerhalb der t?rkischen Gemeinde im Westen. Sp?testens seit dem Tod eines t?rkischen Anh?ngers des West-Berliner SED-Ablegers SEW bei einer Stra?enschlacht zwischen rivalisierenden t?rkischen Gruppen in Kreuzberg im Januar 1980 beobachtete die DDR-F?hrung "faschistisch-nationalistische, rechtsradikale und religi?s-fanatische Tarnorganisationen" der t?rkischen Diaspora in Westdeutschland genauestens.
Zwar gab es in der DDR gerade einmal 94 T?rken, doch 38 davon waren Funktion?re der am Bosporus verbotenen T?rkischen Kommunistischen Partei. Die sa? in Leipzig, betrieb mit SED-Geld einen eigenen Radiosender nebst Druckerei und galt als potenzielles Anschlagsziel politischer Gegner. Auch f?rchtete die DDR angesichts der 40 000 T?rken, die j?hrlich ?ber den Flughafen Berlin-Sch?nefeld in die Heimat reisten, das Risiko von Flugzeugentf?hrungen durch Extremisten. Um "leichter oder ?berhaupt erst" in die "Konspiration feindlicher Ausl?nder bzw. Ausl?ndergruppen eindringen" zu k?nnen, setzten die Stasi-Chefs folglich voll auf die IMA - trotz merklicher Skepsis bei den eigenen Hauptamtlichen.
Eingesetzt wurden die "'Gastarbeiter' beim MfS" (so der doppelb?dige Titel der Birthler- Studie) auch gegen die DDR-Bev?lkerung. So lieferte ein Iraner mit dem Decknamen "Amir" nicht nur allerlei Wissenswertes ?ber Aktivit?ten des iranischen Geheimdienstes in Berlin, sondern horchte auch Politiker der "Alternativen Liste" ?ber deren Kontakte zu DDR-Oppositionellen aus. Er selbst traf zum Teil ?ber Jahre DDR-Oppositionelle wie B?rbel Bohley oder Ulrike Poppe und berichtete dar?ber br?hwarm der Stasi. F?r "wertvolle Informationen, die mit dazu beitrugen feindliche Aktivit?ten zu verhindern" sollte "Amir" zum 40. Jahrestag des MfS 1990 die NVA-Verdienstmedaille und 1000 Mark bekommen; aus bekannten Gr?nden musste die Feier allerdings ausfallen.
Andere IMA dienten als "Fliegenf?nger", wie die MfS-Offiziere jene Romeos nannten, an denen ausreisewillige Ostfrauen bappen bleiben sollten wie an den gleichnamigen klebrigen H?ngestreifen. So konnten viele DDR-Damen, die ihrem Staat untreu zu werden drohten, von den Sicherheitsorganen problemlos eingesammelt werden.
DPA
Geteiltes Berlin (1984):"Kaum zu kontrollierende Kontakte"
Gelegentlich lief es allerdings auch andersherum: Als dem IM-Kandidaten "Kemal", einem linken West-Berliner T?rken, Anfang der achtziger Jahre die Abschiebung in seine Heimat drohte, half ihm das MfS bei der Suche nach einer heirats- und ausreisewilligen Ost-Berlinerin; die Erw?hlte durfte ohne Formalit?ten ausreisen und sicherte dem Agenten durch die Eheschlie?ung das Aufenthaltsrecht in Berlin (West). Bis Herbst 1989 berichtete "Kemal" anschlie?end bei monatlichen Treffs mit seinem Ost-Berliner F?hrungsoffizier unter anderem ?ber t?rkische Vereine und ?bergesiedelte DDR-B?rger.

? SPIEGEL ONLINE 2004
Alle Rechte vorbehalten
Vervielf?ltigung nur mit Genehmigung der SPIEGELnet GmbH
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> DEM WATCH...
Blocking Back
Clark stops Edwards from stopping Kerry.
By William Saletan
Posted Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2004, at 1:19 AM PT

Thoughts on Tuesday night's results and speeches in the Democratic presidential race:

1. Oklahoma. When Wes Clark entered the presidential race five months ago, I said it was a rebuke to John Kerry for failing to catch on as "the candidate with the war record, the candidate who was supposed to keep the party in the center and fend off the standard-bearer of the left." I still think it was a rebuke. But Kerry reclaimed his role, and now Clark is clearing his path to the end zone by blocking the only candidate who could stop Kerry: John Edwards.

First Clark squashed Edwards' official campaign kickoff in September, leaking word that very day that he would get into the race. Then, a week ago, Clark beat out Edwards for third in New Hampshire by a fraction of a percentage point. That cost Edwards the ability to claim plausibly that he had continued his momentum from Iowa. Tuesday night, it happened again: Clark eked out a margin over Edwards in Oklahoma so narrow that the state election board will have to review the ballots before declaring an official winner. Edwards argued that he had "exceeded my expectations" and that his finish in Oklahoma, combined with his win in South Carolina, was "a continuation of the surge we've seen in other caucuses and primaries."

Nice try. I think Edwards would be the strongest Democrat in the general election. Nobody expected him to do this well in Oklahoma. But when the history of the 2004 race is written, my guess is that we'll look back at Oklahoma as Edwards' Stalingrad. He had to kill off Clark. The media were itching to write off Clark, and a no-win night would have given them license to do so. Now they can't. Clark will go on to Tennessee and Virginia, where he'll do what he did in Oklahoma: split the non-Yankee vote and keep Kerry in the lead. Maybe Edwards will win Tennessee and Virginia, and Clark will fade. But by then it may too late to stop Kerry.

Edwards was clearly pining for a Clark defeat in Oklahoma. He delayed his flight to Tennessee more than an hour as he waited for the last returns to trickle in. On CNN before the Oklahoma returns were final, Edwards said, "This race has narrowed dramatically tonight." He said the differences between himself and Kerry would "become clearer and clearer as the race focuses on the two of us." On Fox News, Edwards said the contest was looking "more and more like it's a two-person race. I'm looking forward to that two-person race."

Oops. A couple of hours later, Clark took the stage in Oklahoma to declare, "The results are in! We have won!" Rubbing it in, Clark boasted that a week earlier he had "won the non-New England portion of New Hampshire." It's a thin but valid claim. And now Edwards will have more trouble running as the outsider against Kerry, because Clark will run as the outsider against both senators. As Clark put it to Larry King Tuesday night, "I'm an outsider, Larry. I haven't been in the Senate. I didn't vote for No Child Left Behind. I didn't vote to go war with Iraq, and I didn't vote for the Patriot Act." The general who auditioned for the role of John Kerry is ending up instead with the role of Howard Dean.

2. Attacking Kerry. Dean's doing it, but nobody's listening, because Dean has faded, and coming from him, it's just another Dean-bites-man story. Clark's doing it, but it doesn't carry much punch, since he has failed to establish himself as a plausible nominee. Edwards is more plausible but refuses to attack. Tonight he hinted at a few differences, noting that he could relate to working-class people because he came from a working-class family, and that he had opposed trade agreements such as NAFTA. But again, Edwards insisted on framing these differences in terms of his own virtues rather than Kerry's faults.

Edwards is being way too subtle about this stuff to hurt Kerry. The key ingredient in Kerry's comeback has been systematic theft of any message that's working for any other candidate. Kerry will give you whatever you're looking for in the other guy, plus credibility on domestic policy and national security. Edwards' and Kerry's speeches Tuesday night glaringly illustrated this. Edwards talked about standing for fairness against privilege. He decried the poverty of millions of Americans. He said he would seek opportunity for everyone, no matter where they came from, no matter what the color of their skin. Three hours later, Kerry talked about standing for fairness against privilege. He decried the poverty of millions of Americans. He said he would seek opportunity for everyone, no matter where they came from, no matter what the color of their skin. Kerry is like the aging boxer who hugs the challenger to deprive him of the distance necessary to land a solid punch.

What might yet save Edwards--and I half suspect he's counting on this--is that the media can't stand this civility. They're starving for a fight. Tuesday night, the TV interviewers practically begged Edwards to attack Kerry. On CNN, Bob Dole coached him to go after Kerry's record. It was all Dole could do to refrain from shouting, "Damn it, don't you have a dark side?" But Edwards has come a long way in this race by being patient and letting others--Dick Gephardt, Dean, and Clark--do the dirty work of attacking, so that Edwards could rise through the pack untarnished. Now he seems to be playing the same game with the media. Tuesday night, TV anchors pressed Kerry on his vulnerabilities, and CNN's Judy Woodruff reframed Edwards' positive comments about himself as implicit criticism of Kerry, in effect delivering the punch on Edwards' behalf.

3. National vs. regional candidates. Kerry's biggest achievement is that he's now the only candidate who's running strong everywhere. I winced when he claimed to have finished "enormously close" to Edwards in South Carolina; I don't recall Kerry aides treating Dean's finish in New Hampshire, which was nearer to the top than Kerry's finish was in South Carolina, as enormously close. But Kerry legitimately pointed out that he's the only candidate who campaigned in all seven of the Feb. 3 states, and he won five of them. Who else can make such a claim? Clark skipped Iowa. Edwards has competed everywhere but won only his native state. To hear Edwards tell it, winning South Carolina showed his ability to win among Southerners, blacks, and rural voters. Edwards also claimed in TV interviews that Oklahoma demonstrated his strength in the "heartland." This is how a clever lawyer makes strength in two states sound like strength in half the country. But they're still just two states.

4. Kerry's religion problem. On the night he won New Hampshire, Kerry criticized President Bush for trampling the boundary between church and state. Tuesday night he did it again. That's zero nods to faith and two warnings against religious overreach in a week. Kerry was supposed to be the guy who would save Democrats from Dean's tone deafness on taxes and national security. So far, however, he seems equally tone deaf on values.

5. Kerry's establishment problem. Dean squandered some of his populist resonance when he began to spotlight endorsements by big shots like Al Gore and Bill Bradley. Kerry had less populist resonance to begin with and can't afford to squander it the same way. Tuesday night on CNN, he brushed aside his defeat in South Carolina by noting that the state's top Democrats, Sen. Fritz Hollings and Rep. Jim Clyburn, had supported him. This has to be the first time I've seen a presidential candidate brag about having the endorsement of a state party elite after the voters rejected that endorsement. Kerry went on to boast that the governors of Michigan and Washington were backing him as well. Somebody needs to remind him that the voters call the shots, and they don't take well to candidates who appear to care more about courting self-styled power brokers.

6. Battlefield egalitarianism. Everyone expects Kerry's military record to patch up the Democrats' difficulty on national security. What's less understood is how it might patch up his difficulty connecting with ordinary people. In his victory speech, Kerry spoke again of his "band of brothers" from Vietnam. And when he was asked during an interview about his comfortable upbringing, he turned the discussion to his service in Vietnam, where "nobody cared about what your background was. They cared about whether you were a standup person and fought, and they cared about whether you did your duty and covered people." It's a tremendously powerful answer, and Kerry will need every bit of that power to overcome his Brahmin aloofness if he ends up in a showdown with Bush.

William Saletan is Slate's chief political correspondent.

Photograph of John Edwards on the Slate home page by Roberto Schmidt/Agence France Presse.

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>> LINKS AND PHOTO AT ...
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_020304/content/rush_is_right_2.guest.html
Nobody Likes Phony JFK

February 3, 2004
For the past two weeks, I've been passing on stories from Democrats and members of the mainstream media about how John Kerry is not well-liked. This column headlined "What's to Like?" in the American Spectator makes plain that he's not liked by anybody! It cites the Boston Globe's seven-part series that "revealed everything embarrassing." Despite Kerry's people saying their guy is clean, his rivals in the party are taking shots at him.

"What you're going to see," a staffer for Johnny "the Breck Girl" Edwards says, "is more and more stories about how Kerry is just reviled by his fellow Democratic senators and by others. The man is genuinely disliked for just being a big phony." The staffer gives an example of the Vietnam vets Kerry's suddenly surrounding himself with, saying, "Almost to a one, these guys have said that they had reached out to Kerry over the years and never heard back from him. Suddenly he's running for president and he's all hot and heavy to use them to his advantage."

The staffer closes with a charge that Kerry "just tries to ride other people's coattails," which dovetails with all the other stories here about how he's a gigolo who gets wealthy by preying on single and divorced women who have inherited a lot of money, etc. The piece closes with a report that Kerry is preparing to ride the biggest coattails of all with the slogan, "A New Century. A New JFK."

Oh, I hope they do that. Do you know how delectable that would be?

Listen to Rush...

(...pass on more stories on the unliked, unlikable John F-ing Kerry)

Read the Article...

(American Spectator: What's To Like? John Kerry's main problem)

Previous Stories on the Real JFK-Wannabe...
(National Review: David Frum's Conversation with Mona Charen on "Mr. Both Ways")
(Rolling Stone: John Kerry's Desperate Hours)
(Slate: Teresa Heinz - Why John Kerry Needs Some of His Wife's Sauce)
(Slate: Does Teresa Heinz Trust John Kerry?)
(NewsMax: John Kerry's Newt Gingrich Problem?)
(Dukakis: Kerry is Best Bet for Democrats)
(Boston Globe: Kerry's Tax Shelter Documents)
(Former Congressman John LeBoutillier: Kerry the Candidate)
(Boston Globe: Running Mates 1982 - Dukakis/Kerry)
(Ann Coulter: Just A Gigolo)
(LA Times: War Hero and Waffling Windbag - Max Boot)
(Townhall: Howard Dean in a dress - Michelle Malkin)
(Slate: Why Didn't Kerry Speak Out? When Bush Broke Those Iraq "Promises")
(Kerry Says Threat of Terrorism Exaggerated)
(Washington Post: Steak Raises Stakes for Kerry in Philly)

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EU airports expect more clashes over state aid
Reuters, 02.04.04, 1:56 PM ET

eLibrary @ Forbes.com more >
LONDON, Feb 4 (Reuters) - The European Commission may have opened the way to months of clashes over subsidies to the airline industry after it ordered Ryanair to repay four million euros of state aid, an airport industry group said on Wednesday.
"I think we'll see a series of challenges... It's just going to be messy," said Philippe Hamon, director general of ACI Europe, whose members handle 90 percent of Europe's commercial air traffic.
Ryanair has vowed to appeal to the European Court of Justice after the Commission on Tuesday ordered it to repay the aid it received from the Belgian government to set up operations at Charleroi regional airport.
Such subsidies are common in the airport business where attracting an airline such as Ryanair can bolster local economies by drawing tourists and holiday home buyers.
"We're going to be fighting skirmishes in the European courts for the next 12 months," said Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O'Leary.
Known for his colourful barbs, he called the EU ruling a "numbnuts decision" and a "disaster" for low-cost airlines.
ACI's Hamon said the EU needed to issue more comprehensive guidelines to head off a long series of complaints, probes and court cases involving other airlines and airports.
"What we'd like to see is a set of rules by which this game can be played without the distractions and anguish and costs of these legal challenges," he told Reuters by telephone.
EU Transport Commissioner Loyola De Palacio told reporters on Tuesday that such guidelines were being considered.
Regional governments are also wary of precedents set in Tuesday's ruling, especially a five-year cap on state subsidies.
"Imposing a maximum duration of three to five years for regional aid could in many cases endanger the regions' long-term investments and their sustainable economic development," the Assembly of European Regions (AER), representing some 250 regional governments, said in a statement.
UK-based BAA Plc , Europe's largest listed airport operator, declined to comment.
Charleroi handled about two million passengers in 2003, compared to just 89,000 when Ryanair started flying there in 1997.
Copyright 2004, Reuters News Service

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>> CORRUPTION INDEX...

Taiwan
Fugitive claims Chen accepted political funds
2004-02-03 / Taiwan News, Staff Writer / By Dennis Engbarth and Wang Chung-ming
Spokesmen for President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) denied yesterday charges by a convicted tycoon that Chen had accepted political funds as "an evil election trick."
In three open letters ostensibly addressed to President Chen but faxed to many opposition legislators yesterday, former Tuntex Group Chairman Chen You-hao (陳由豪) stated that he had contributed funds to now President Chen Shui-bian during the latter's re-election campaign for Taipei City mayor in 1998 and the presidency in 2000.
The fugitive tycoon was indicted on charges of breach of trust for allegedly stealing NT$800 million from the Tuntex Group's subsidiary Tunghua Development in 1995 and investing the money in China.
Chen, who fled from Taiwan to China last August, is number six on a list of Taiwan's 10 most wanted criminals issued by the Ministry of Justice in late November and was subject to an all-points bulletin after repeatedly refusing to appear at hearings on his alleged offenses.
Describing himself as a "political refugee," the fugitive businessman also accused the Office of the President of becoming "a center for shady 'black and gold' political corruption."
Chen You-hao wrote that he began to doubt President Chen's promise to wipe out corrupt "black and gold politics" after having "close dealings"with two of the president's "confidants," namely Chen Che-nan (陳哲男), now a deputy presidential secretary-general, and Chang Ching-sen (張景森), now a vice chairman of the Council for Economic Planning and Development.
Chen You-hau claimed that he had met with Chen Che-nan on many occasions before the 2000 presidential election and alleged that "each time I gave him cash to help finance Chen Shui-bian's presidential campaign."
The former Tuntex chairman also related having several encounters with Chang when the latter was deputy Taichung City mayor.
"It is regrettable that Chen You-hau has made accusations against President Chen in an insinuating manner," said Huang, who declared that Chen You-hau should have produced solid facts or evidence to back his allegations.
Noting that the "open letters" were first released by opposition Kuomintang and People First Party lawmakers, Huang stated that the action cannot avoid suspicion of having been a politically motivated ploy ahead of the March 20 presidential election. "This was an evil trick for political purposes," Huang charged.
The presidential spokesman also noted the efforts and achievements of President Chen's administration in promoting "sunshine" politics and cracking down on "black" gangsters and "gold" business influence in politics, efforts which have led to arrests, indictments and convictions of numerous businessmen formerly influential under the former Kuomintang regime, including Chen You-hau.
In addition, Wu Nai-jen (吳乃仁), a spokesman for the president's re-election campaign, related that not only is Chen You-hau a major suspected financial criminal, but that the former Tuntex chairman had admitted in a Control Yuan investigation to having contributed NT$100 million to the KMT.
"This is entirely a political move by the pan-blue camp," said Wu, who urged the fugitive to return to Taiwan as soon as possible to clarify his charges and face the judgements of the courts.
In a statement conveyed by Huang, Chen Che-nan denied having any "money dealings" with Chen You-hau, even though the presidential official acknowledged meeting Chen You-hau several times at the latter's initiative to "clarify" news reports that he had moved his capital to China while leaving huge debts in Taiwan."
Similarly, Chang Ching-sen faxed a written statement to the Presidential Office, saying that he once met with Chen You-hau in early 1999, but noted that he had then been unemployed and did not have any public post.
A source who was close to the Chen campaigns in 1998 and 2000 told the Taiwan News that Chen You-hau's charges were "illogical," as the two aides mentioned were both "fairly marginal" and "not involved in handing campaign financing."
Contemporary Monthly Editor-in-Chief Chin Heng-wei (金桓煒) said that the charges by the former Tuntex tycoon "should not affect" the presidential race. "The only possible problem would be if the political funds that Chen You-hao allegedly gave Chen involved some illegality or bribery," Chin stated.
"But even if that was the case, subsequent events have shown that Chen Shui-bian did not give Chen You-hao any special treatment," Chin noted.
Soochou University assistant professor of political science Sheng Chih-jen (盛治仁) also stated that the ex-tycoon's revelations "were not enough to influence the election situation." Sheng observed that Chen You-hao had not provided any concrete details or evidence to support his charges, but added that the DPP camp could be hurt if former Tuntex chairman succeeds in upsetting the tempo of the campaign.
"The objective of the 'green camp' must be to explain the situation clearly to get out of this difficulty," noted Sheng.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Tehelka commission gives clean chit to Fernandes
HT Correspondent
New Delhi, February 4
Roughly two months ahead of the forthcoming general elections, the Justice S.N. Phukan Commission of Inquiry on the Tehelka expose on Wednesday said it had found "no impropriety" on the part of defence minister George Fernandes in the 15 specific cases of defence deals that it probed.
Sharply reacting to the one-man panel's report, Congress spokesman Abhishek Singhvi said it was ironical that an enquiry itself had become a scam.
Singhvi added that after Justice Venkataswami had ruled on the validity of the tapes and was proceeding further, the new arrival thought it fit to send the tapes for re-examination.
"While Justice Venkataswami was appointed by the Chief Justice of India, his successor was handpicked by the government without consulting the Supreme Court," said Singhvi.
After submitting the first part of the interim report to Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Justice Phukan would not commit himself to saying that Fernandes had been given a clean chit.
He, however, said that the recommendations contained in the 641-page report were "corrective" in nature. He strongly hinted that not all was right with the procurement procedures of defence equipment.
Justice Phukan said that two more reports would follow. One would focus on the allegations of Tehelka (revealed on tape as part of 'Operation Westend') and the other would deal with his findings on 37 people, including the role of middlemen, as also whether Fernandes' reputation was adversely affected or not.
The reports would be submitted to the government in March and June-July, respectively, Justice Phukan assured.
His interim report, based on 507 secret and top-secret files, primarily deals with 15 questionable defence deals between 1981 and 2000.
Observing that he was making an "exception" by addressing the media after submitting the report, Justice Phukan, a retired Supreme Court judge, said that "no impropriety was found" against the defence minister in the 15 deals.
But faced with a barrage of questions on whether he had absolved Fernandes or not, he appeared to be at pains to reiterate his earlier statement.
Asked whether procurement procedures were followed, Justice Phukan said the central theme of his recommendations was "improvement".
He said it took him over a month to author the report, the groundwork for which was mostly done by the Justice Venkataswami Commission.
The commission was set up in March 2001 soon after Tehelka played videotapes recorded in a sting operation which purportedly showed that bribes were paid for "defence deals".
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rajiv Gandhi cleared of Bofors payoff stigma
HT Correspondent
New Delhi, February 4
In a landmark order, the Delhi High Court has ruled that there is no evidence to show that any public servant, including former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi, received any bribes in the Bofors pay-off case.
In his 115-page order, Justice J.D. Kapoor observed that the CBI, despite investigating the case for 16 years, could not unearth any evidence against Rajiv Gandhi and former defence secretary S.K. Bhatnagar. "All efforts of the CBI ended in a fiasco...," Justice Kapoor noted.
The judge quashed charges of criminal conspiracy between public servants (Rajiv Gandhi and Bhatnagar) and the petitioners (Hinduja brothers and Bofors) that had been framed in a Special Court order in November 2002.
However, the court gave the go-ahead for framing of charges against the Hinduja brothers -- Srichand, Gopichand and Prakash -- for allegedly having entered into a criminal conspiracy to cheat the Union government in 1985-86 by representing that there were no agents or middlemen involved in the negotiation of the contract.
The court also ordered framing of charges against Bofors.
The court observed that the CBI had traced money received as commission by the Hinduja brothers and the other middlemen in the case, Ottavio Quattrocchi and Win Chadha. But the CBI had failed to establish any link to Rajiv Gandhi.
Justice Kapoor also noted that the army had had the decisive voice in selecting the Bofors gun.
The high court has now directed the chief metropolitan magistrate to hear the case on a day-to-day basis "as far as possible".
Justice Kapoor did not spare the CBI and media in his order. He said the case was an example of how "trial and justice by the media" could cause irreparable, irreversible and incalculable harm to the reputation of a person.

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Embarras au Parti socialiste, lyrisme chez les chiraquiens
LE MONDE | 04.02.04 | 13h36
Les Verts et la LCR mettent en cause le pr?sident de la R?publique.
La d?cision d'Alain Jupp? de conserver ses mandats de d?put?, de maire de Bordeaux et de pr?sident de l'UMP "pendant la dur?e de l'appel"a d?clench? des r?actions embarrass?es au Parti socialiste. Son premier secr?taire, Fran?ois Hollande, qui a d?nonc? une "sorte de mise en sc?ne organis?e", voit "l'ombre de l'Elys?e"dans ce d?nouement. "C'est le choix de Jupp?, la pression de Chirac", a-t-il d?clar? au Monde, avant d'ajouter que, "sans doute, il ?tait n?cessaire pour le chef de l'Etat de pr?server la direction de l'UMP et de pr?venir tout autre d?bordement, politique et judiciaire". Laurent Fabius, d?put? PS de Seine-Maritime a estim?, sur France 3, que "Jacques Chirac a d? ?tre convaincant", mais en m?me temps il mettait en garde contre les "commentaires partisans". "Je comprends les raisons qu'il a donn?es. J'ai trouv? qu'il y avait dans ce qu'il disait une v?rit? humaine", a-t-il affirm?. Enfin, le PRG a not? sobrement que M. Jupp? avait "le droit" de prendre une telle d?cision "mais -que- ses engagements ?taient autres"...
Pour le porte-parole national des Verts, Yves Contassot, Alain Jupp? "r?pond ainsi aux injonctions de son chef, Jacques Chirac". "Au milieu d'un num?ro de fausse contrition larmoyante, M. Jupp? a eu un moment de sinc?rit? lorsqu'il a d?clar? : "On ne se change pas." Il utilisera toutes les ressources de la proc?dure, il joue la montre, comme le RPR l'a toujours fait. Je ne serai pas surpris qu'il y ait quelques nominations ou promotions, prochainement, ? la cour d'appel de Versailles."
"La justice, Alain Jupp? s'en fiche. Le fusible de luxe du pr?sident Chirac entend continuer comme si de rien n'?tait", a lanc? Olivier Besancenot, porte-parole de la LCR. Jugeant "scandaleuses" les "vingt minutes offertes ? la t?l?vision ? un responsable politique pour critiquer une d?cision de justice", il s'est demand? si "ces minutes seront prises en compte dans le cadre du d?compte du temps de parole donn? ? chaque parti pour la campagne ?lectorale pour les r?gionales".
A l'inverse, les r?actions ? la d?cision de M. Jupp? ont d?clench? l'enthousiasme dans les rangs de la majorit?. A noter cependant que les repr?sentants de l'UDF ont refus? de commenter l'?v?nement. " C'est son choix et il n'y a rien d'autre ? dire", a ainsi expliqu? Fran?ois Bayrou, son pr?sident.
Le premier ministre, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, a imm?diatement t?l?phon? ? M. Jupp? pour saluer "sa dignit? et son sens des responsabilit?s", et "l'assurer de son soutien dans ses d?marches". Le pr?sident de l'Assembl?e nationale, Jean-Louis Debr?, a exprim? "sa reconnaissance pour sa d?cision de poursuivre son action nationale et d'assumer son mandat de d?put?". Bernard Accoyer, premier vice-pr?sident du groupe UMP ? l'Assembl?e, a d?clar? : "Je crois que, ce soir, son autorit? est intacte."
Christian Poncelet, pr?sident UMP du S?nat, s'est ?galement f?licit? qu'" Alain Jupp? -ait- tenu ? assumer son devoir d'homme d'Etat malgr? les moments difficiles qu'il vient de traverser et ceux qui l'attendent dans les prochains mois". Dans la foul?e, le pr?sident du groupe UMP au S?nat, Josselin de Rohan, a form? "des v?ux pour que le jugement en appel efface les cons?quences dramatiques d'un verdict qui a atteint un dirigeant probe et respect? et -qui- risque de priver la France d'un homme d'Etat". Et Charles Pasqua, pr?sident du conseil g?n?ral des Hauts-de-Seine, a not? que "l'?preuve" v?cue par Alain Jupp? "lui a permis de fendre l'armure". Il a toutefois invit? "? relativiser tout cela -car- les Fran?ais ont d'autres sujets de pr?occupation".
Fran?ois Baroin, porte-parole de l'UMP, a estim?, sur Europe 1, que la d?cision de M. Jupp? "est un gage de stabilit? pour l'UMP, pour le gouvernement, pour la vie politique fran?aise dans sa majorit? actuelle". Il a d?plor? "le comportement de voyous de bas ?tage"de responsables de la gauche et le "silence crisp? qui prend peut-?tre la forme d'un sourire" de M. Bayrou. Mercredi matin, sur RTL, le ministre de l'agriculture, Herv? Gaymard, a affirm? : "Je crois qu'Alain Jupp? nous a donn?, ? tous, une grande le?on de d?mocratie, et tout simplement de classe."
A l'extr?me droite, le pr?sident du Front national, Jean-Marie Le Pen, a d?clar? que, "toute honte bue, Alain Jupp?, condamn? ? une peine infamante, poursuit sa carri?re politique comme si de rien n'?tait, contrairement ? ce qu'il avait annonc?".
Vincent Martinelli

* ARTICLE PARU DANS L'EDITION DU 05.02.04


M. Jupp? a admis sur TF1 le recours aux "emplois fictifs" qu'il avait contest? au proc?s
LE MONDE | 04.02.04 | 13h36
Il pourrait changer de strat?gie pour l'appel.
Dans moins d'un an, Alain Jupp? retrouvera sa place de pr?venu dans le proc?s en appel du financement du RPR. Parce qu'il estime ne pas "m?riter" la sanction prononc?e par le tribunal correctionnel de Nanterre - 18 mois d'emprisonnement avec sursis - et l'in?ligibilit? de dix ans qu'elle entra?ne, le pr?sident de l'UMP est d?cid? ? se battre et, comme il l'a dit mardi 3 f?vrier sur TF1, ? "essayer de montrer qu'-il peut- avoir un jugement diff?rent, moins s?v?re". Puis il a ajout? : "Pendant vingt ans, tous les partis politiques ont eu des difficult?s pour organiser leur financement. Beaucoup ont ?t? condamn?s, pas tous. Beaucoup d'organisations syndicales ont eu recours ? ce que l'on appelle, ? tort ou ? raison, des emplois fictifs."
CHERCHER LES FAILLES
Ces mots pourraient bien esquisser une nouvelle strat?gie de d?fense. Une fois pass?e la sid?ration du 30 janvier, M. Jupp? a eu le temps d'?tudier chaque attendu du jugement qui le condamne, et sans doute aussi celui de se repasser le film de ces trois semaines d'audience, d'en chercher les failles, voire les erreurs qu'il a pu commettre.
En ?voquant les "difficult?s de financement" rencontr?es par tous les partis ? l'?poque des faits et leur recours aux "emplois fictifs", m?me s'il a nuanc? cette derni?re expression, M. Jupp? se place sur un autre terrain que celui dans lequel il s'est enferm? en premi?re instance. Au fond, il ne fait que confirmer la phrase l?ch?e en pleine audience par son ancien directeur de cabinet, Yves Cabana, selon lequel "tout le monde savait" que le RPR avait recours ? des emplois fictifs. Lorsque la pr?sidente, Catherine Pierce, avait interrog? l'ancien secr?taire g?n?ral sur ces propos, il avait r?pondu, lapidaire : "Je ne partage pas l'opinion de M. Cabana. Personne n'a port? cette information ? ma connaissance lorsque j'ai pris mes fonctions", avait pr?cis? M. Jupp?.
Cette affirmation avait suffi, quelques mois auparavant, pour convaincre le procureur de la R?publique ? Nanterre, Bernard Pag?s, de prononcer un non-lieu en faveur de M. Jupp? sur la partie des emplois du RPR pris en charge par les entreprises priv?es. M. Pag?s estimait, en effet, que la connaissance qu'il aurait eue des emplois frauduleux n'avait pas pu ?tre d?montr?e. Se fiant ? cette premi?re victoire, M. Jupp? n'avait pas d?vi? de sa ligne devant le tribunal et n'avait pas pris la peine d'assister ? la premi?re semaine de proc?s qui, en droit, ne le concernait pas. Dans la m?me logique, il avait "formellement contest? la d?nomination d'emplois fictifs"pour les sept emplois pris en charge par la Ville de Paris qui lui ?taient reproch?s en sa qualit? d'ancien adjoint aux finances.
Ce fut sans doute l? son erreur. Les d?bats ? l'audience, marqu?s par les propos des chefs d'entreprise sur le "chantage"du RPR, par le refus de la hi?rarchie interm?diaire du parti d'endosser la responsabilit? d'un syst?me qui n'?tait pas la sienne, avaient affaibli la d?fense de M. Jupp?. Ses propos sur TF1 sonnent comme un d?but d'aveu.
Pascale Robert-Diard
* ARTICLE PARU DANS L'EDITION DU 05.02.04


Posted by maximpost at 4:59 PM EST
Tuesday, 3 February 2004

Inquiry is pointless - intelligence is always open to interpretation
By John Keegan
(Filed: 03/02/2004)
The Government is facing demands for yet another investigation of the part played by the intelligence services in leading Britain to join the United States in the Iraq war. Two questions should be asked about such demands. The first is about the usefulness of intelligence in general to the inception and conduct of military operations. The second, more difficult to answer, is what specifically such an investigation might reveal.
The usefulness of military intelligence has a very mixed history. I say that with confidence, having recently published a long study, Intelligence In War, which set out to answer the question: how useful is intelligence? It consists of a number of case studies of intelligence operations from more than 100 years of military history chosen because evidence was available and clear-cut.
The studies yielded very varied conclusions. Among the most striking were that even the possession of perfect intelligence may not avert defeat. In May 1941, the British, having intercepted and deciphered the complete German plan for the airborne invasion of Crete, including date, time, place, strength, methods and aims, were still unable to mount an effective defence and lost the island to a weaker force.
Excellent intelligence may, contrarily, appear to have been the key to victory, but closer inspection reveals that other factors were more important. At Midway in June 1942, the American Navy had again correctly identified the Japanese intentions for the operation and its date, location and timing; but, when action was joined, it was accidental factors that won the battle. In practice, the Japanese were winning the battle until the very last moment.
Usually, however, intelligence does not provide unequivocal answers, but only indications, which require imagination to interpret correctly. Interpretation inevitably leads to disagreements among the intelligence officers concerned. Before Midway, the most important naval battle ever fought, the heads of the naval plans and communication departments in Washington were at open war over interpretation.
An even more striking example of disagreements, bearing directly on the current Iraq controversy, was over intelligence of German secret weapons. A strange leak, the Oslo report, had warned the British in 1940 that Hitler was developing pilotless aircraft and rockets. It was ignored until, in 1943, reports from inside occupied Europe referred to the subject again.
A committee was set up, chaired by Duncan Sandys, Winston Churchill's son-in-law. Its findings were reviewed by another committee, of which Lord Cherwell, Churchill's scientific adviser, was the most important member. Cherwell absolutely denied the possibility of Germany having a rocket, and produced the scientific evidence to prove it. He persisted in his denial throughout 1943 until June 1944, when remains of a crashed V2 were brought to Britain from neutral Sweden. Shortly afterwards, the first operational V2 landed on London. Churchill was furious. "We've been caught napping," he burst out in Cabinet.
Worse than napping. More than 1,500 V2s landed on London, killing thousands, at a time when Hitler was also trying to develop a nuclear warhead. The whole pilotless weapons episode demonstrates that, even under threat of a supreme national crisis, and in the face of copious and convincing warnings, intelligence officers can disagree completely about the facts and some can be 100 per cent wrong.
Little or nothing about the past, even about such a well-known episode as the V-weapons, has influenced those who have so violently denounced the Government over the so-called September dossier. Its critics have taken the view throughout that intelligence can and ought to be perfect, and that the editing of the dossier's contents amounted to systematic falsification. Not only does that attitude reveal the critics' complete ignorance of how intelligence is collected and assessed, it also suggests that they have not bothered to read the dossier, included complete in the Hutton report.
Almost all the material in the dossier is uncontroversial, a well-substantiated survey of Iraq's development and use of chemical and biological weapons and missiles (based, as it happens, on the V2) before 1998. What strikes anyone who has taken the trouble to read other intelligence dossiers, which exist in thousands in the Public Record Office, is what a completely normal document it is. If anything, it is remarkable for the sobriety of its tone and the caution of its conclusions.
Only in Chapter 3 of Part I does it include false information - that Iraq had procured nuclear material from an African country - and claims about Iraqi capabilities, such as the range of some missiles, that are exaggerated. As to the first, that seems simply a mistake, based on what is now known to be a forged document; at least one mistake in a large intelligence assessment might be expected. The exaggerations are regrettable, but assessment is inherently relative. Intelligence officers deal in a balance of probabilities and must sometimes err on the wrong side.
Above all, it must be remembered that British intelligence was attempting to penetrate the mentality of a man and a regime which were not wholly rational. It now seems probable that most of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction had been destroyed in the early 1990s, either by the first UN inspection team (UNSCOM) or as a precautionary measure on Saddam's own orders. Saddam was, however, unwilling to admit to such a loss of power, because of the prestige his possession of WMD brought him in the region. His policy of disposing of his WMD while refusing to admit the disposal was completely illogical.
But then almost nothing in Saddam's megalomaniac world was logical. What logical ruler would deliberately provoke two disastrous wars, either of which might have been avoided by the practice of a little prudence?
Finally, what purpose would be served by a further assessment of the dossier? Any inquiry would shortly resolve into a semantic argument about the nature of text editing: a sentence here, a phrase there.
It is supremely ironic that the BBC is demanding such a semantic argument, when the trouble it has got itself into was caused precisely by its failure to undertake any sort of editing at all of an unscripted text by a reporter with a less than perfect reputation for reliability.
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Inelegant Lies
Making sense out of mullahs.
To underline one of my favorite themes, notice that Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz's arrival in Iraq last week was, as usual, welcomed by massive suicide bombings, this time in the north. At least sixty Kurds were killed in Irbil by simultaneous attacks on the two big political parties, and hundreds were injured, some of whom will likely die. This sort of message -- you come, we kill you and your allies -- is well understood in the Middle East, although not so well back here. Last time he was in Iraq, they tried to kill Wolfowitz, when he was unaccountably put in one of the terrorists' favorite target areas, the al Rasheed hotel in Baghdad.
Anyway, Agence France Presse quoted Mr. Tachlo Khodr Najmeddine, the official spokesman for the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan -- the attractively acronymned PUK -- as convinced that Iran was involved. "We (the two Kurdish groups) have a common enemy: the terrorists who come from Iran and other countries, and we must face them."
On January 29, our excellent General Ricardo Sanchez, the commander of Combined Joint Task Force 7, said that "al Qaeda's fingerprints have been here in Iraq (for months)." He said that their methods had been evident at least since the suicide attacks against the Italian carabinieri in Nassiriyah last November.
Apparently nobody thought to ask him from which planet the terrorists had entered Iraq, although Mr. Najmeddine had undoubtedly shared his concerns with the leader of Task Force 7. In any event, General Sanchez knows full well where the operations are staged, for he named Abu Musab Zarkawi as the ringleader, and Zarkawi has long worked out of Tehran (and briefly from Baghdad, according to Secretary of State Powell's presentation to the United Nations Security Council on the eve of Operation Iraqi Freedom).
Not that Iran limits itself to organizing suicide missions. The pattern is, in fact, distinctly multicultural: They send non-Iranians to blow themselves up, but their own people get easier duty. On February 2, an Iranian and an Afghan were arrested planting bombs in a major oil refinery in Baghdad. And, in darkest Africa: "An Iranian has been arrested by Nigerian police for taking photographs of what they say are strategic buildings in the capital, Abuja." Iranians -- including official diplomats -- have previously been caught taking pictures of Jewish community centers in London, and the New York City subway system. While Iranians are brilliant moviemakers, it is unlikely that these guys were planning to enter an artistic competition.
These are the gentle souls with whom our diplomats and a handful of their willing handmaidens in Congress wish to "improve relations." One can only imagine the negotiations that have already taken place, the only results of which have been broken Iranian promises regarding al Qaeda terrorists "held" in Iran and concerning the ongoing Iranian nuclear program. The mullahs are not models of consistency. Just the other day, President Mohammed Khatami delivered himself of a line worthy of George Orwell at his finest. "We have reached a deadlock with the Guardians Council regarding the qualifications of candidates" he was quoted by the official news agency, the student news agency and several other media outlets. But a few hours later his office produced the Orwellian masterpiece:
"In the official and quotable comments of the esteemed president, this sentence and comment does not exist." This sort of inelegant lie should be a warning to anyone who tries to understand Iran through the words of their spokesmen. You have to watch their feet, not their lips. Thus, for example, the pathetic charade over the upcoming elections -- a charade that has produced an incredible quantity of misreportage -- has been portrayed exactly as the mullahs want: as an important power struggle between "hard liners" and "reformers." The "hard liners" dissed several thousand would-be candidates for the February 20 parliamentary elections, including some sitting "reformers," and many of the parliamentarians have been protesting. On occasion, they have announced their resignations (although they are still there, debating and protesting).
If you ignore the rhetoric and just watch the behavior, you will see that it all signifies nothing, as the Iranian people know full well. Foreign journalists have been baffled by the near-total indifference of the populace to what the journalists see as a really big story, but their bafflement only bespeaks their own lack of understanding. There is no real power struggle, because all effective power is in the hands of the two main thugs: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his henchman Akhbar Rafsanjani. The others, most decidedly including the esteemed president, do not matter at all. They hold no power, they can do nothing for the oppressed Iranian people, and the people know it. Recent polling in Tehran suggests that less than 15 percent of the electorate plans to go to the polls on election day, and even that number may be high.
The most likely explanation for the passionate protests is quite mundane: In a country reduced to economic misery, where workers are not paid for months on end, a government job is a miracle well worth fighting for. Has no one noticed that some 9,000 people signed up to run for a few hundred seats in the Majlis? Why such an enormous number? Because those are paying jobs, and paying jobs in Iran nowadays are hard to come by.
Despite the cheery words from Foggy Bottom and the eager appeasement from Capitol Hill, the Iranian regime is at war with us. The talk about "improved relations" has a double objective: to delay our support for democratic revolution in Iran, and to discourage the democratic revolutionaries b showing them that even the ferocious Bush administration is seeking a modus vivendi with the regime itself.
Our diplomats have it wrong. Sanchez and Najmeddine are the reliable sources. We will never get a firm grip on Iraq until the regime is changed in Tehran.
Faster, please.
http://www.nationalreview.com/ledeen/ledeen200402030840.asp
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The UN and the Jews
Anne Bayefsky
Anne Bayefsky, a new contributor, is a professor of political science at York University in Toronto and an adjunct professor at Columbia University Law School.
the assistance of Brazil) tried to include a reference to anti-Semitism in the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination, the effort failed, thanks to the Soviet Union, its satellites, and its Arab allies, who among other things insisted that anti-Semitism was a question not of race but of religion. When the UN finally got around to adopting its first declaration on religious intolerance in 1981, anti-Semitism was again excluded. By 2003, the lead sponsor of the perennial resolution on religious tolerance, Ireland, insisted with a straight face that anti-Semitism should be omitted because it was more properly considered under the rubric of race. Against this unrelievedly dark record of omission, a few glimmers of progress have appeared over the past decade. After tumultuous multi-week negotiations in 1994, the U.S. persuaded the UN Commission on Human Rights to adopt its first resolution including the word "anti-Semitism" in over 30 years--and only the second in its history. Even so, a full third of the commission's members refused to support it, and eight years later, with the U.S. temporarily voted off the commission, it returned to form, withdrawing its short-lived concern and excising anti-Semitism from the racism resolution. Last year, after drawn-out negotiations, the General Assembly did manage to permit references to anti-Semitism in two resolutions on racism, one of them without effect or follow-up and the second in the full knowledge that other elements in the resolution would force the United States and Israel to vote against it.
By the summer of 2001, at the now notorious UN World Conference Against Racism in Durban, South Africa, the notion that Jews were the target of any special animus, now or in the past, was being treated with simple contempt. References to anti-Semitism were removed from almost all parts of the final declaration. Not only was there no mention of the Holocaust in the conference's demand that those who incite racial hatred should be brought to justice, but absent as well was any mention of the need to study the Nazi war against the Jews. The only references to the Holocaust and anti-Semitism appeared as part of a "Middle East package" in which Palestinians were declared to be victims of Israeli racism.
And what of today, as we experience the world's most virulent outbreak of anti-Semitic deeds and speech in over a half-century? Concern over this phenomenon did make an appearance, however fleetingly, in two reports issued in 2003 by the UN special investigator on racism, Doudou Di?ne. In one of them, his comment consisted of a short, vague reference to the controversy surrounding the recent broadcast on Egyptian television of a series based on the infamous czarist forgery, The Protocols of the Elders of Zion. Unnamed "authorities of the countries concerned," Di?ne wrote, were in the process of sending him further information on this "allegation" of anti-Semitism.
In a second report published last year, this one addressed to the General Assembly itself, Di?ne offered a seemingly new approach, promising to turn his attention to the "clear resurgence of anti-Semitism." But his only action to date has been to take note of the obvious fact that attacks on Jews are "on the rise in Europe, Central Asia, and North America." Entirely absent from his statements has been any mention of the boiling cauldron of Middle Eastern anti-Semitism--a silence all the more remarkable in light of the multiple examples of "Islamophobia" that he has documented with alarm.
In this connection, it is worth noting that, though Di?ne is now required to produce annual reports "on discrimination against Muslims and Arab peoples in various parts of the world," no report dedicated to the problem of anti-Semitism has ever been produced by any organ of the UN. This indifference to anti-Semitism has been mirrored by the UN's growing refusal over the decades to support the principle of self-determination for the Jewish people--that is, Zionism. The irony, of course, is that the UN General Assembly was very much present at the creation of the state of Israel, having endorsed the postwar partition plan for British-ruled Palestine. But much has changed since 1948.
In general, and in the abstract, the UN has remained committed to the ideal of self-governing nation-states. As one characteristic declaration of the General Assembly puts it, "All peoples have a right to self-determination; by virtue of that right they freely determine their political status and freely pursue their economic, social, and cultural development." Indeed, over the years, the UN has developed and extended the principles of self-determination, which are now taken to entail not just the basic right of political independence but guarantees of non-interference by other nations, a realm of domestic jurisdiction and national sovereignty, and the preservation of historical, cultural, and religious particularities.
Where the UN has fallen markedly short is in the application of these principles, and in no case more strikingly than that of Israel. The key factor
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has been the changing composition of the international body. From the late 1940's to the mid-60's, the original membership more than doubled. Of the 67 new states joining in this period, 80 percent attached themselves to the Group of 77--the UN's third-world caucus, made up of many former European colonies--and some 40 percent had Muslim majorities. By 1977, the five members of the Arab League who helped to found the UN had been joined by all sixteen others. To this radicalized and often Soviet-influenced contingent, self-determination was invoked in UN circles not as a general principle but as a tool to wield against the West, especially the U.S. and its increasingly stalwart ally, Israel. Self-determination was a right of the oppressed, to be exerted against oppressors. In the prosecution of this cause, the weight assigned to historical claims was itself selective and discriminatory: those who rejected the UN's 1947 partition plan for Palestine were labeled the oppressed, while Jewish victims, from Palestine to Europe, were characterized as the oppressors. By this means has the UN negotiated the passage from omission to commission. Not only has it consistently failed to appreciate or even to acknowledge the state of Israel's preservation of Jewish independence and identity, it has become the loudest and most determined foe of the Zionist project. In 1975 the UN General Assembly passed its notorious resolution explicitly equating Zionism with racism. Ever since then, and notwithstanding the formal repeal of the resolution in 1991, the repellent imagery of Israelis as racists has been a staple of UN rhetoric. Today, diplomats from Arab and Muslim states--states that effectively rendered themselves Judenrein in the late 1940's--refer to Israel's new security fence against terrorism as an "apartheid wall." Palestinian towns and villages are called "Bantustans." And the Palestinian Marwan Barghouti, on trial in Israel for acts of terrorism, is labeled another Nelson Mandela.
To judge by the UN's official pronouncements, the Jewish state is the world's archetypal humanrights villain. Over the past 40 years, almost 30 percent of the resolutions passed by the UN Commission on Human Rights to condemn specific states have been directed at Israel, which also has the distinction of being the only state to which the commission has devoted an entire item on its agenda. As for the General Assembly, of the ten emergency special sessions it has convened in its history, six have focused on the purported misdeeds of Israel, from the Suez campaign of 1956 to the current dis-
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pute over the security fence. The abuse of this process has gone so far that the tenth session, originally convened in 1997, has become a permanent, open-ended forum; it has now been "reconvened" twelve times, most recently this past December. Israel has been singled out in other ways as well. In the UN bureaucracy, it is the only country with its own standing inter-state monitor: the Special Committee to Investigate Israeli Practices Affecting the Human Rights of the Palestinian People and Other Arabs of the Occupied Territories. Established as long ago as 1968, this body has issued annual reports ever since. Another committee, on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People, was established in 1975, on the same day the General Assembly passed the Zionism-is-racism resolution. Still going strong almost three decades later, with 24 members and 25 observers, it too summarizes its findings every year while at the same time sponsoring a full program of meetings, conferences, and publications. In 2003 alone, the UN bureaucracy generated 22 reports and formal notes on "conditions of Palestinian and other Arab citizens living under Israeli occupation." The UN's response to an Israeli military incursion into the West Bank town of Jenin in April 2002 typifies the organization's treatment of the Jewish state. At the time, even a report by Yasir Arafat's Fatah movement recognized Jenin as "the suicider's capital," a place where organizations like Hamas and Islamic Jihad had sought shelter, among civilians, for their ongoing murderous operations. But the UN saved its venom for Israel's armed response to the violence directed against its citizens. Terje Roed- Larsen, the organization's special coordinator for the Middle East peace process, described the scene after Israel's strike--a strike expressly designed to limit civilian casualties--as "horrific beyond belief." Peter Hansen, commissioner general of the UN Relief and Works Agency, called it "a human catastrophe that had few parallels in recent history." A UN press release was headlined, "End the horror in the camps." Only much later, in mid-summer, did the UN Secretary General release a report on Jenin noting that the Palestinian death toll from this "massacre" was 52, approximately 35 of whom were armed combatants.
Israel's policies are, of course, fair game for legitimate criticism. But the UN's outrage is grossly selective, especially when one considers the record of any number of other member nations. In 2003, the General Assembly passed eighteen resolutions that singled out Israel for criticism; humanWhat that something is has become too clear to deny: over the past several decades, the UN has fashioned itself into perhaps the foremost global platform for anti-Semitism. The leading agent of this process, needless to say, has been the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), Israel's supposed "partner in peace," in close cooperation with Arab and Muslim members of the UN. In presentations to the UN Commission on Human Rights, Palestinian delegates have repeatedly devised new variations on the medieval blood libel, accusing the Israelis of such things as needing to kill Arabs for the proper observance of Yom Kippur and of injecting Palestinian children with HIV-positive blood.
By Palestinians and others, Israelis are now routinely condemned with Nazi terminology--current resolutions speak of the "Judaization" of Jerusalem-- or are themselves likened to Nazis. As the Algerian representative recently observed, in an especially memorable outburst:
Kristallnacht repeats itself daily. . . . Israeli soldiers are the true disciples of Goebbels and of Himmler, who strip Palestinian prisoners and inscribe numbers on their bodies. . . . Must we wait in silence until new death camps are built. . . . The Israeli war machine has been trying for five decades to arrive at a final solution. The nadir of the UN's record in these matters was the conference on racism and xenophobia held under its auspices in Durban in 2001. It would have been bad enough if (as we have already seen) the event had simply refused to acknowledge the growing problem of anti-Semitism; but it went much farther, turning into a festival of hatred against the Jews. Though the Durban conference concluded with a formal meeting of government representatives, its first half consisted of an NGO forum--a meeting, that is, of the various nongovernmental organizations purportedly devoted to combating racism. NGO's play a key role in the UN system, with some of them receiving formal status, but here Jews have once again been singled out for discriminatory treatment.
Over the years, attempts have been made to impede groups like Hadassah, the Simon Wiesenthal Center, and the International Association of Jewish Lawyers and Jurists from obtaining official accreditation. Durban gave some idea why. At the conference's NGO forum, the Arab Lawyer's Union freely distributed books containing cartoons of swastika-festooned Israelis and fanged, hooked-nosed Jews, blood dripping from their hands. Another best-selling title was The Prorights situations in the rest of the world drew only four country-specific resolutions. Nor, despite serious and well-documented charges of abuse reported to the UN over the years from, among others, the organization's own special rapporteurs, has any resolution of the UN Commission on Human Rights ever been directed at China, Syria, Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Pakistan, Malaysia, Mali, or Zimbabwe. Consider the case of Sudan. This past year, members of the UN Commission on Human Rights had before them the report of their own special rapporteur on torture, which described the articles of the Sudanese penal code mandating "cross amputation"--the amputation of the right hand and the left foot--for armed robbery and, for other offenses, "death by hanging crucifixion." The report also took note of various cases in which Sudanese women had been stoned to death for adultery after trials conducted in a language they did not understand and in which they were denied legal representation.
The response to these gruesome findings? On behalf of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, Pakistan vehemently objected to a draft resolution condemning this sort of "cruel, inhuman, and degrading treatment or punishment," declaring such views "an offense to all Muslim countries." The resolution went down to defeat; for good measure, the commission terminated the tenyear- old position of rapporteur on human rights for the long-suffering people of Sudan.
The justifications that are typically given for turning a blind eye to human-rights violations in 95 percent of UN states are predictable enough. In 2003, teaming up to defeat a resolution condemning Russian behavior in Chechnya, Syria and China called it "interference in the internal affairs of that country." India said that "every state had the right to protect its citizens from terrorism." When it came to reproving Zimbabwe, South Africa objected to "naming and shaming," while Libya, complaining that the resolution was "an attempt to make the commission a forum to settle differences between countries," declared its preference for "the language of cooperation and dialogue." How is it, one might wonder, that such reservations never give the UN a moment's pause when it comes to the organization's relentlessly one-sided prosecution of Israel--a democratic state with an independent judiciary that, unlike all these others, can point to a long and distinguished record of respect for human rights? The demonization of Israel would seem to be about something else entirely.
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Commentary February 2004
tocols of the Elders of Zion. Hundreds of flyers were distributed with a picture of Hitler and the words, "What if I had won? The good thing--there would be no Israel." Appeals to the conference's secretarygeneral, UN High Commissioner for HumanRights Mary Robinson, to demand the removal of this anti-Semitic literature went unheeded. The NGO forum at Durban did sponsor a single event on anti-Semitism, but it was disrupted by an angry mob of protesters, shouting, "You are killers! You are killers!" A news conference the following day, called by a broad range of national and international Jewish organizations, was similarly interrupted, this time for the benefit of the TV cameras, and was finally called off.
As the NGO forum drew to a close, the Jewish caucus, like all the other caucuses, submitted provisions for the conference's final document. The group's contribution stated that anti-Semitism could take many forms, including the equation of Zionism with racism, the attempt to de-legitimize the self-determination of the Jewish people, and the targeting of Jews throughout the world for violence because of their support of Israel. When the time finally came for a vote, a representative of the World Council of Churches called for the deletion of this language; the Jewish caucus was alone in voting against the motion. Jewish NGO's from all over the world walked out in protest, even as representatives of Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and the Lawyers Committee on Human Rights stood by in silence. No statement proposed by any other caucus was deleted. Did the UN system learn a lesson from this fiasco? To the contrary. Just months after Durban, Vladimir Petrovsky, director-general of the UN office in Geneva, declared the conference "the most extensive and momentous expression of the global resolve to combat the scourge of racism and intolerance in all its forms and at all levels." Commissioner Mary Robinson agreed, telling a subsequent UN human-rights gathering that the Durban conference's International Youth Summit--a part of the NGO forum at which young Jews from all over the world were jeered, heckled, and threatened, before eventually walking out--had been "an inspiring event."
In the two years since Durban, whose outrages were quickly overshadowed by the events of 9/11, anti-Semitism voiced under the auspices of the UN has taken a new and, arguably, even more dangerous turn. In every UN body, Arab and Muslim states have opposed any effort to give meaningful definition to the notion of terrorism, largely because of its obvious implications for the Palestinian "uprising." The UN Counter Terrorism Committee, set up by the Security Council in the wake of 9/11, has yet to identify publicly a single terrorist organization or state sponsor of terrorism.Worse still, organs of the UN have taken to glorifying terrorist violence against Israeli targets. In 2002, John Dugard, a special rapporteur for the Commission on Human Rights, could barely contain his admiration for the murderous enemies of the Jewish state: "The Palestinian response is equally tough: while suicide bombers have created terror in the Israeli heartland, militarized groups armed with rifles, mortars, and Kassam-2 rockets confront the IDF [Israeli army] with new determination, daring, and success."
In 2003, as Israel suffered successive waves of attack against its civilians, the commission itself put forward a resolution affirming the legitimacy of suicide bombing, declaring that movements against "foreign occupation and for self-determination" were entitled to "all available means, including armed struggle." The only members to vote against the resolution were Australia, Germany, Peru, Canada, and the United States. (France and the United Kingdom abstained.) The American and Canadian delegates protested that the resolution was "contrary to the very concept of human rights" and "deeply repugnant to the commission's core values." It carried by a wide margin. It is no accident that a UN apparatus which, for decades, has ignored anti-Semitism and distorted beyond recognition the idea of Zionism would seek to isolate Israel from the global community. At the UN, Israelis and Jews are, by definition, oppressors, as are the nations and organizations that rally to their cause. The energy with which these hateful views are expressed has ebbed and flowed over time, but there is no reason to think that the underlying reality will change anytime soon.
To appreciate the dimensions of this tragedy one need only recall the lofty promises of the UN Charter, ratified in the hope of securing the "equal rights of men and women and of nations large and small." By this plain and unambiguous standard, anti-Semitism is not some necessary if unfortunate by-product of multilateral progress, as some would suggest. It is an out-and-out malignancy, and it has compromised the integrity of the entire organism. Perhaps it is time to stop holding seminars and conferences on whether the UN glass is half-full or half-empty. The contents of the glass have been poisoned.
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China set to flood the world with chips
By Macabe Keliher
TAIPEI - Last September Morris Chang alarmed the semiconductor industry when he said there would be an industrywide recession in 2005 and that the Chinese chip makers would cause it. "I stand by that statement. China's capacity in 2005 will have a big impact," the chairman of the world's largest made-to-order integrated-circuit and computer-chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), has told Asia Times Online.
That's something of an understatement. In pursuit of a policy that will make China nearly self-reliant in semiconductor manufacturing, and enable the country to source its own chips domestically for everything from tape recorders to computers, Beijing is funding and bankrolling what is being called reckless expansion in semiconductor fabrication plants, or "fabs". Through low-interest loans, tax exemptions and even direct investment, the Beijing government has set China on pace to provide the world with 20 percent or more of its capacity next year in the made-to-order chip industry, or foundry.
This volume is enough, industrialists and analysts say, to cause a serious glut that will drive down prices, slash profit margins and suppress return on equity. From a robust 20-30 percent growth this year to more than US$200 billion, the global semiconductor industry will register only 10 percent or less in 2005, according to Chang, and some analysts are predicting negative growth. "Just as in any industry governed by supply and demand, an increase in capacity anywhere in the world will have effects," said Chang, interviewed at a TSMC investors' conference here last Thursday.
When Beijing designated the semiconductor industry as one of China's pillars of economic growth, the industry was sure to take off, and what has occurred is unprecedented on any scale. From virtually nothing a few years ago, Chinese fabs hold about 9 percent of the foundry market's capacity today, and they are expected to produce 15 percent of the industry's chips by the end of the year, and well over 20 percent in 2005.
China is sitting on a mountain of wafers
Take, for example, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, China's largest manufacturer. It currently has three eight-inch-wafer fabs in Shanghai that will increase capacity by 70 percent this year. Add a recently purchased Tianjin eight-inch fab, a 12-inch fab in Beijing that is expected to go online in the fourth quarter, and two more 12-inch fabs scheduled for 2005 and 2006, and China is sitting on a mountain of wafers that the market is just not ready to absorb.
"The overcapacity will be massive. And taken with a modest fall in global chip sales, there will be a rough landing for the industry," said Rick Hsu, semiconductor analyst at Nomura Securities.
As part of the government's strategy, Chinese foundries aim to supply the local market. Currently almost 80 percent of China's chip demand, which totaled about $22 billion last year, is being met by foreign makers. The Chinese government hopes to raise the country's self-sufficiency above 50 percent in the coming years, and has invested heavily in a few of the companies. Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp, for instance, is 62 percent government-owned, and Grace Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp is partially held by the son of former Chinese president Jiang Zemin.
In addition to owning majority stakes in some of the semiconductor companies, China offers tax incentives to semiconductor investments. Chip makers pay no income tax in the first five years of investment and then pay half of the regular tax in the next five years. The standard income-tax rate is 15 percent, well below that of many developed countries, including Taiwan's 25 percent. These tax incentives, along with lower land and labor costs, give Chinese companies a cost advantage. They can manufacture about 10 percent more cheaply than their competitors elsewhere, according to Andrew Lu at Citigroup Smith Barney.
With these political and financial incentives, analysts estimate that Chinese companies will increase their wafer-manufacturing capacity by nearly 60 percent by the second half of this year. Such a trend is only expected to intensify until Chinese makers can fill more than 50 percent of the domestic demand, possibly regardless of whether there is new demand or not.
Analysts warn that the local market is expected to grow less than 20 percent this year and about 13 percent next year - a rate slower than that of the manufacturing capacity. "There is a demand shift, not the creation of demand," said Hsu, at Nomura. "Foundries are unlikely to see a return to the days of ROEs [returns on equity] in the 20 percent range."
China's mass chip production to hurt others
Although Chang said Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's 2003 fourth-quarter return on equity was 19.9 percent, and that he expects more than 20 percent by this June 30, all of those high numbers may drop when Chinese companies begin mass production in their new fabs, probably some time next year. Nomura estimates that TSMC will recover to only 18 percent return on equity in 2005, the year in which the chip cycle is expected to peak. TSMC's ROE peak was in 1995, at 45 percent.
"The pricing power of Taiwan's foundries in this sector should just about disappear," said Hsu. He estimates that China foundries sell at about 20-30 percent lower than the industry as a whole, and 40-50 percent lower than TSMC.
The industry is in the midst of an upswing now, to be sure. Arizona-based Semico Research Corp forecasts 26.8 percent revenue growth for the global semiconductor industry this year, and 39.7 percent growth for the foundries. And last week TSMC announced record revenues for fourth-quarter sales in 2003, an increase of 5.3 percent over the third quarter, and Chang said he expects single-digit growth in the first quarter of 2004, monumental in an industry that peaks in December. Profits for TSMC in the fourth quarter rose sixfold over 2002.
The problem is, the industry overall is expanding. TSMC is raising its capital expenditure by 60 percent this year to $2 billion, and United Microelectronics Corp, the world's second-largest foundry, is expected to increase its capital expenditure fourfold, from $350 million to $1.5 billion. The Chinese companies are planning initial public offerings, either in Hong Kong or on the United States Nasdaq in the next year or so. China's largest manufacturer, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, for instance, will float a $1 billion initial public offering (IPO) in the first half of this year. Grace is also scheduling a $3 billion IPO, probably next year.
"Enjoy it while it's great," said Dan Hutcheson, president of US-based VLSI Research Inc, "but expect a decline on the order of 30 percent to start in late 2005."
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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Korea: Naming names of Japan's collaborators
By David Scofield
SEOUL - The planned departure of the United States Forces in Korea from Seoul and the Yongsan area is prompting more than just the expected rush of eager real-estate speculators eyeing this US$3 billion, 255-hectare island of relative green embedded in a sea of concrete within one of the world's most congested cities.
The effective repatriation, in two or three years, of Yongsan - real estate formerly held by the Chinese and for the first half of the 20th century by the Japanese - is prompting soul-searching about the past and a possible, belated re-evaluation of Korea's recent history, especially under Japanese occupation. Alleged collaborators with the Japanese are expected to be named this summer by an umbrella group of civil organizations.
Complicity and collaboration are among the issues surfacing in what is sure to be a complicated, painful and, some say, politically motivated reassessment - general elections approach in less than three months. The umbrella group, the Korean Issues Research Center, has already published the names of hundreds of groups and businesses it says collaborated with the Japanese. And this summer it promises to go even further and name individuals who, it alleges, sided with the Japanese to the detriment of the Korean people. Some big names may well come to the fore, but probably few surprises.
The return in a few years of the property occupied by the US military forces, and before that the Japanese and the Chinese, has reminded the nation of its colonial history. But the return of this property to South Korea and the linked revisitation of Korea's colonial past has the potential either to help the nation come to terms with its recent history, or to undermine a better understanding of history, fueling political vendettas and exacerbating strains in an already divided nation.
The Japanese officially colonized the Korean Peninsula from 1910 to the end of World War II in 1945, though their presence was felt at least a decade before that. The Yongsan (Dragon Mountain) area at the foot of Namsan in the center of Seoul was the headquarters of the Imperial Army - the subsequent occupation of the area by the US military has encouraged obvious comparison parallels to that time. Indeed, the headquarters of the US Forces in Korea (USFK) and the US 8th Army are currently housed in Japanese occupation-era buildings on Yongsan Main Post, which served similar functions for the Japanese army.
The forthcoming so-called "liberation" of the Yongsan area has encouraged at least one civil organization to question Korean complicity with the Japanese colonizers, and it plans to name the names of collaborators and those it considers to have been complicit in the occupation. Some of those are believed to be members of families now highly placed in Korean government, business and culture.
New facts emerge about the rape of Korea
Korea's official history is careful to define the time of Japanese colonization as a brutal rape of Korea and its people, which is largely true. However, other facts recently unearthed and largely unreconciled to the textbook history suggest there is more to the story.
At the end of the 19th century, Korea was languishing under the ineffectual rule of the later Joseon (Yi) Dynasty. Long a Chinese vassal state, by the end of the 19th century Korea's leadership had made few attempts to develop the country, preferring instead to turtle up and hope the world would pass on by. The monarch remained in Seoul, and had little interaction with any forces outside the capital. The remainder of the peninsula was ruled by the landed class called Yangban who maintained many Koreans as indentured servants, landless peasants.
Japan's colonization of Korea came on the heels of its own Meiji restoration. Korea's first Japanese governor, Ito Hirobumi, himself one of the original architects of the Meiji restoration and an acolyte of Prussian-style bureaucracy, installed a strong system of centralized bureaucracy on the peninsula, while quietly buying off and removing the Yangban overlords.
The Japanese mobilized the country's resources in order to develop the infrastructure of Korea - not out of altruism, but in the knowledge that a well-functioning Korea could better serve the needs of Japan, initially through agriculture and then through industry. The "industrialist mindset" and a belief in the efficacy of large business groups maintained by strong government-business relationships got its start during this period and propelled Korea forward in the second half of the century.
Japan's quest to exploit both the nation's human and material resource capital included a comprehensive mapping campaign that cost about 20 percent of the country's total revenue for eight years from 1910-18. This was followed by land redistribution and the eviction of landowners who lacked written deeds, appropriation of lands for Japanese farmers, incorporation of property rights, abolition of slavery, introduction of a Western-style legal code, the development of Korea's logistical infrastructure and the formation of a strong, integrated bureaucracy.
The Japanese style of colonialism was very hands-on - Japan truly wanted to integrate Korea into Japan, in terms of infrastructure and bureaucracy. According to Korean scholar Michael Robinson of Indiana University, Korea's bureaucracy grew from 10,000 members in 1910 to 87,552 in 1937, about 40 percent of them ethnic Koreans.
Many Koreans worked in police, army, government
The Japanese ruled with an iron fist. Dissension was quelled swiftly, and often brutally. But the large numbers of Koreans serving in the police, the military and the central government have yet to be fully accepted or incorporated into Korea's official history. Indeed, studies by people such as Atul Kohli of Princeton University indicate that the application rate for the police force was 20 Koreans for each vacancy, since such positions with the new authority were much sought after and prized in the colonized country.
World War II ended and the Japanese left, but the Japanese infrastructure, ideas and bureaucratic "software" remained. Indeed, the United States occupied the same ground the Japanese had just vacated, made use of the law-enforcement and government bureaucracy created by Tokyo, and left many Koreans in the same positions they had held during the Japanese colonial period.
After the withdrawal of Japanese forces, there were calls for committees to identify and expose those who were Japanese sympathizers and collaborators, thus beginning the process of reconciliation. This idea - Korean truth commissions, in effect - was dropped by Korea's first president Rhee Syngman (better known in the West as Syngman Rhee) as being too divisive.
The idea of examining complicity and collaboration was scrapped and the country marched forward, never fully confronting or reconciling itself to its colonial past, and to those who benefited from it - some understandably out of need, others out of greed. Among the questions never asked: Were the economically hard-pressed Koreans who joined the Japanese-run police force wicked collaborators who harmed their Korean compatriots, or were they ordinary people who needed jobs and helped to maintain law and order in the colonial period?
Fast-forward 50 years and the forthcoming removal of the US forces from the geo-historical nexus of Yongsan, Dragon Mountain, headquarters of both the Japanese Imperial Army and the US forces in Korea.
The timetable calls for the USFK in Seoul and the bases to the north of Seoul along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) to close, and thousands of US soldiers and others to be relocated to two hubs - Osan-Pyongtaek and Daegu-Busan - to be completed by the end of 2006. The United States has stationed about 37,000 soldiers in South Korea and an equal number of dependants, contractors and others. The exact number to be moved is not definite at this time and it is not known how many will be removed from the country altogether. South Korea, however, is now saying that it might take until late 2007 for the government to comply with its contractual obligations - paying the cost of removal and relocation of USFK - an estimated $3 billion to $4 billion.
Exposing 'collaborators' a possible vendetta
A civic group called the Korean Issues Research Center is ready to name names this summer and expose those it says were complicit with the Japanese. It claims it has wide popular support, saying it has independently raised $500,000 for the project. The group's tone and mission suggest a vendetta, but it is possible that making public more information about the past may promote the thoughtful re-evaluation of history and help shape a more positive future. This could mean better relations with Japan and other countries in the region, and better chances of conflict resolution.
The implication of many families, including some very powerful and prominent figures in contemporary Korean society, seems likely. Punishment appears out of the question, but public humiliation could be severe.
The scope and the sheer numbers of those involved might prompt South Korea to take another, more balanced and objective look at its recent history and its place in the region. This would be a vitally important step forward for a nation that has declared its intention to pursue an independent path of foreign policy and diplomacy.
A more comprehensive and realistic public recognition of Korea's history with Japan, for example, would allow Seoul to formulate policy and strategies based on less nationalistically charged interpretations of history. It would be a crucial first step in South Korea's maturation into a developed democratic nation and a positive lesson for its regional neighbors, especially Japan, that have yet to come to terms with their own recent histories. Incomplete and distorted understandings of history by all parties fuel contemporary conflicts, such as the Korea-Japan disputes over Tokdo Island and the naming of the East Sea/Sea of Japan - among others.
But given the timing of the complicity-exposure project and the politically charged atmosphere of the nation - less than three months to go before general elections - it is very possible that the long-overdue historical reassessment may become nothing more than a political weapon. This could be wielded to undermine and discredit political foes, as the names of families sympathetic to the Japanese are leaked to the press prior to official publication of The Dictionary of Pro-Japanese Koreans, slated for 2006.
Given that President Roh Moo-hyun's progressives largely support the exposure initiative, while members of the conservative Grand National Party do not, the destructive politicization of what could be a constructive national historical exercise appears a distinct possibility.
Seoul feared exposure project too divisive
The complicity-exposure initiative is spearheaded by the Korean Issues Research Center, an overarching organization of civic groups, many of them Internet-based. It has been functioning since 1991 and it studies Korea-Japan issues. The exposure campaign was first envisaged as a five-year project, from 2002-06. The government initially agreed to fund it, but conservative politicians got nervous when they realized the politically divisive nature of the campaign and the embarrassment to key conservative and other public figures.
In order to compensate for the loss of promised government funding, the Korean Issues Research Center then launched a funding appeal on January 8. It received considerable support from like-minded progressive online newspapers such as Hankyoreh, Oh My News, Voice of the People, The Whanin Period and many more. The umbrella organization and its cause - naming names - also received exposure through a television news special on MBC (Munhwa Broadcasting Co).
The research center had predicted that it would take until this summer to raise the $500,000 for its complicity-exposure project, but says it secured the money in only 11 days. Most donors, it says, were average citizens or "netizens", though it is possible that large donors contributed.
In late 2002, the organization first began publishing the names of alleged collaborators, and the first installments identified what it called 500 pro-Japanese groups and places of business in Korea. This was not too damaging, since it only identified organizations, not individuals. Names will come later.
In 2003 the group published the names of 400 pro-Japanese Korea groups in China. This coming summer it plans to publish the names of pro-Japanese groups in the provinces outside of Seoul, in more detail than contained in its previous efforts. The publication of individual names - The Dictionary of Pro-Japanese Koreans - will be completed in 2006, the same year the US forces are to withdraw from Seoul and the DMZ to large base hubs in the south.
David Scofield is a lecturer at the Graduate Institute of Peace Studies, Kyung Hee University, Seoul.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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South Korean Mayor Hangs Himself
By JAE-SUK YOO
ASSOCIATED PRESS
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) - The mayor of South Korea's second-largest city, who is on trial for allegedly taking $85,000 in bribes, hanged himself in his jail cell, a prison official said Wednesday.
Busan Mayor Ahn Sang-young, 64, was found early Wednesday hanging from a rope made with undershirts, the official at Busan Detention House said on customary condition of anonymity.
Ahn had been arrested in October on charges of taking $85,500 in bribes from a construction company in return for business favors. He was in the prison's medical ward because of digestive problems.
Prosecutors had sought a 10-year prison sentence.
Ahn was elected to his second four-year term as mayor of Busan in 2002. Prosecutors were also investigating allegations that he took $28,500 from another business.

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Failed Suicide Bomber Lost Will to Die
By JUDITH INGRAM
ASSOCIATED PRESS
MOSCOW (AP) - A Chechen suicide bomber who was arrested after failing to detonate an explosive in a Moscow cafe last summer said in an interview published Tuesday that she had lost her will to die and purposely tried to attract attention to herself.
Zarema Muzhakhoyeva, 23, was detained in July after her strange behavior attracted the attention of security guards at Mon Cafe, a restaurant just off a main avenue leading to the Kremlin. A bomb disposal expert, Maj. Georgy Trofimov, was killed trying to defuse the explosive that she had carried in a bag and left on the sidewalk.
The arrest sent jitters through the Russian capital, still shaken by a double suicide-bombing at a Moscow rock concert five days earlier that killed the two attackers and 14 other people.
Muzhakhoyeva faces charges of terrorism, conspiracy to murder two or more people, and illegal possession and transfer of weapons, the Izvestia daily reported. If convicted, she could spend 25 years in prison.
Muzhakhoyeva told Izvestia that she hopes for acquittal under a law lifting criminal responsibility from people who warn of a terrorist act or its preparation. She described doing her best to attract attention to herself without provoking punishment from the controllers she was sure were following her - and who, she was convinced, could detonate her bomb by remote control.
"Briefly, I decided to surrender with the bomb and hide from everyone in prison - even though they could get me in prison, too," Muzhakhoyeva was quoted as saying.
Suicide bombings are a relatively new phenomenon in Russia, which has been fighting an insurgency in Chechnya for most of the last decade. The most flamboyant surviving rebel leader, Shamil Basayev, is credited with creating a special battalion of female bombers known as black widows, who have gained notoriety with attacks including the seizure of a Moscow theater in fall 2002.
The Federal Security Service, the main successor to the Soviet-era KGB and the agency leading Russia's fight against terrorism, maintains that many of the female bombers are drugged or otherwise forced into their work. But Chechens and human rights advocates argue that the bombers are women whose husbands, fathers and children have been killed and feel they have nothing more to lose.
Muzhakhoyeva saw herself in that light.
Abandoned by her mother at 10 months and widowed after her much older husband was shot in a business dispute, Muzhakhoyeva told Izvestia that she turned to terrorism as a way out of shame. She had stolen jewelry from her grandparents and sold it in hopes of being able to start a new life with her young daughter, whom her husband's family had placed with another relative, but the family prevented her from taking the child and then froze her out.
Muzhakhoyeva said she then turned to terrorism, having heard that suicide bombers' families were rewarded $1,000. She spent time in rebel training camps in the mountains of southern Chechnya, and then was assigned to blow up a bus in Mozdok, the Russian military headquarters in the Caucasus region. When the targeted bus turned up, however, she could not bring herself to connect the wires of the bomb she carried, she said.
"At that moment I realized that I could not blow myself up," she recalled.
Another woman completed the job a few days later, killing herself and 15 others.
In spite of her failure, Muzhakhoyeva's handlers sent her to Moscow. She lived in a safe house outside the capital with a male guard, a male explosives expert and two women, who blew themselves up at the rock concert just a few days after arriving.
On the day the cafe attack was planned, the two men drove her to the square in front of St. Basil's Cathedral, at the end of Red Square, and instructed her to flag down a car to get to the cafe. She stared at the driver in the rearview mirror and muttered verses from the Quran, hoping he would turn her in to the police. But he dropped her off at her destination and sped away.
Muzhakhoyeva walked up to the plate glass front of the cafe and stuck out her tongue at men inside, then smirked. A trio of men came out, asked for her passport and asked what was in her bag.
"An explosive," she said. Within minutes, she was in police custody.
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World Court Refuses to Disqualify Judge
By ARTHUR MAX
ASSOCIATED PRESS
AMSTERDAM, Netherlands (AP) - The World Court rejected an Israeli request to disqualify an Egyptian judge from the tribunal, which will rule on the legality of the security barrier Israel is building in Palestinian territories, the court said Tuesday.
Israel wanted Judge Nabil Elaraby to step down, citing his earlier job as legal adviser to the Egyptian government and what it described as a prejudicial newspaper interview in 2001.
By a vote of 13-1, the court ruled on Friday that Elaraby would remain on the bench. Only the court is empowered to excuse one of its judges. The Hague-based panel has 15 judges; Elaraby didn't vote.
The International Court of Justice, the highest U.N. judicial body, was asked in December by the General Assembly to give a nonbinding opinion on "the legal consequences" of the 440-mile complex of walls and fences on Palestinian land, some of which slice deeply into the West Bank.
Israel says the barrier is meant to stop suicide bombers. The Palestinians say it is an attempt to redraw borders and has already disrupted tens of thousands of lives.
As a government legal adviser, Elaraby sat across from the Israelis at the negotiating table on several occasions, dating back to the successful Camp David agreements in 1978 that led to the Egypt-Israel peace treaty. He was elected to the court in October 2001 for a nine-year term.
The court ruled Elaraby's previous activities "were performed in his capacity of a diplomatic representative of his country, most of them many years before" the current case arose.
It said Elaraby had said nothing about the barrier in the newspaper interview, and "could not be regarded as having previously taken part in the case in any capacity." No details about the interview were immediately available.
Israel raised no objection to the Jordanian judge on the panel, Awn Shawkat al-Khasawneh, even though Jordan was expected to take the lead in arguing against the security barrier.
U.S. judge Thomas Buergenthal dissented, arguing that the opinions Elaraby expressed in the interview create "the appearance of bias incompatible with the fair administration of justice" in the barrier case. Elaraby gave the interview three months before joining the world court.
The ruling cited a 1971 precedent when South Africa objected to three judges sitting in a case concerning South Africa's presence in Namibia. They also were allowed to remain.
The nationality of the 15 judges on the tribunal reflect the geographic composition of the United Nations. The court can't include more than one judge of any nationality. Judges are elected to nine-year terms by the United Nations General Assembly and Security Council.
In a separate statement, the court said 44 countries have submitted depositions in the case, from Japan to Brazil and the tiny Pacific island of Palau, which has only 20,000 people.
European countries outnumbered Arab states, with the United States and Cuba also weighing in. Palestine was allowed to submit an argument even though it is not a recognized state. The court also accepted submissions from the 22-member Arab League and the 57-member Organization of Islamic Conference before Friday's deadline.
At the United Nations, Nasser Al-Kidwa, the Palestinian U.N. observer, accused Israel of violating the rules of the court by commenting on submissions before the court makes them public. The Palestinian envoy also accused Isreal of "straightforward lies" and "spinning the facts."
Specifically, he accused Israel of releasing the names and number of countries supporting their position and characterizing the position of groups of countries like the European Union.
"All of this is illegal because it violates the rules of the court that prohibit talking about the content of the statements before they are made public by the court, and they also are not true," Al-Kidwa said.

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Deals Signed for Caspian Sea Oil Pipeline
By AIDA SULTANOVA
ASSOCIATED PRESS
BAKU, Azerbaijan (AP) - Government officials Tuesday signed financing agreements for a $3.6 billion pipeline to transport Caspian Sea oil to Western markets.
The 1,100-mile pipeline is to extend from Baku, across Georgia and to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, where the oil can be loaded onto tankers for Western markets.
Representatives from the three countries and a group of creditors signed the agreements.
The project is seen as key for the United States and other Western markets to reduce their dependence on Middle Eastern oil.
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliev hailed the pipeline as having a stabilizing effect on the region. The pipeline is already 15 percent completed and could begin operation in 2005.
"The Baku-Tiblisi-Ceyhan project will promote the development of regional cooperation, and closer ties," he said.
The pipeline is expected to supply international markets with 1 million barrels a day of Caspian Sea oil by the end of the decade.
The pipeline consortium, headed by BP oil company, came up with $1 billion of the funding, while the remainder of the cost comes from export-import banks and credits from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the International Finance Corporation.
Azerbaijan's state oil company along with Statoil, Eni, Total, Unocal and ConocoPhillip are also involved in the project.

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Annan: U.S. OKs U.N. Iraq Election Plan
By TERENCE HUNT
ASSOCIATED PRESS
WASHINGTON (AP) -
A United Nations team heading to Iraq to help break the impasse over creating a transitional government is expecting White House support for its recommendations, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Tuesday.
Annan said a U.N. team would go to Iraq soon to seek a consensus on a transitional Iraqi government, which would take power by June 30. "We are going to help them work out this problem and hopefully they will come to some consensus and agreement as to how to move forward," Annan said after meeting with President Bush in the Oval Office.
The Bush administration's plans to hand over Iraq were thrown into turmoil when Iraq's most prominent Shiite leader, Ayatollah Ali al-Husseini al-Sistani, demanded direct elections to choose a provisional assembly. The United States wants to stick with a plan agreed upon on Nov. 15, which calls for caucuses to choose the body.
The White House said it is open to some changes but the June 30 deadline is firm. The administration is anxious to settle the problem as Bush heads into a presidential election campaign and faces a steadily rising U.S. death toll in Iraq.
Annan said the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority, headed by L. Paul Bremer, and the Iraqi Governing Council had indicated "they would accept the conclusions of the U.N. team. So we do have a chance to help break the impasse which exists at the moment and move forward."
He said all parties agree sovereignty should be handed over to Iraq as soon as possible. "The date of 30 June has been suggested, but there is some disagreement as to the mechanism for establishing the provisional government," Annan said.
"And I hope this team I'm sending in will be able to play a role, getting the Iraqis to understand that if they could come to some consensus and some agreement on how to establish that government, they're halfway there," he said.
Annan said the U.N. group was authorized by the coalition authority and the governing council "to review whether elections are possible or not, help with the design of the caucus system or propose other options."
The secretary-general declined to criticize the United States for going to war based on what now appears to be faulty intelligence that had asserted Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. Bush is about to announce an investigation to look into the Iraq error and other intelligence failures. Annan said he would await the results of the U.S. investigation before commenting.
Underlying the U.N. team's mission are concerns about their safety. Annan ordered U.N. international staff to leave Iraq in October following two bombings at U.N. headquarters and a spate of attacks targeting humanitarian organizations.
"Obviously we are concerned about security," Annan told reporters in the White House driveway as he left. "I cannot say that we today have a secure environment in Iraq for the U.N. to resume its normal activities, but I hope that day will come."
Bush spoke briefly. "I'm upbeat and optimistic about the future of the world," he said.
Bush said he and Annan had discussed ways to ensure the "Iraqi people can be free and the country stable and prosperous and an example of democracy in the Middle East. And the United Nations does have a vital role there, and I look forward to working with the secretary-general to achieve that."

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White House Promises Libya 'Good Faith'
By BARRY SCHWEID
ASSOCIATED PRESS
WASHINGTON (AP) - The Bush administration told Libya on Tuesday it was still branded a supporter of terrorism but said some restrictions on commerce may be lifted if Moammar Gadhafi's country keeps scrapping its weapons programs.
American and British officials will meet jointly on Friday with Libyans in London on "how to move ahead" toward improved relations, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said.
Libya is in the midst of dismantling its nuclear and missile programs and has shipped thousands of pounds of parts to the United States for storage and conversion.
"As the Libyan government takes these essential steps and demonstrates its seriousness, good faith will be returned," Boucher said.
At the London meeting, plans will be made for another onsite survey by U.S. and British experts, and more weapons parts may be sent to the United States, Boucher said.
"We've seen a couple of weeks of action on the removal and verification," Boucher said. "It's appropriate to have a political dialogue on what lies ahead.
"The situation with Libya has fundamentally changed."
Many of the curbs on dealing with Libya stem from its having been designated by the State Department as one of the seven nations that support terrorism.
"For many years we have said that countries like Libya need to take steps to end their relationships with terrorism," Boucher said. "If they had, we would have taken them off."
Last month, a U.S. cargo plane carrying some 55,000 pounds of nuclear and missile parts arrived in Tennessee from Libya.
Earlier, documents involving the country's nuclear program arrived by plane, and the White House said Libya had begun destroying chemical munitions.
Gadhafi, seeking a lifting of U.S. economic sanctions, promised on Dec. 19 to end development of nuclear and all other weapons of mass destruction.
"The world can see that Col. Gadhafi is keeping his commitment," White House spokesman Scott McClellan said last week. "As they take these essential steps and demonstrate its seriousness, its good faith will be returned and Libya can regain a secure and respected place among the nations."
However, he said the shipments were "only the beginning of the elimination of Libya's weapons."

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Calif. Utility Abandons Plan to Ship Nuclear Reactor Vessel Around Tip of South America
By Seth Hettena Associated Press Writer
Published: Feb 3, 2004
SAN DIEGO (AP) - A California utility on Tuesday abandoned a plan to send a 600-ton decommissioned reactor vessel on what would have been the longest voyage ever for a piece of nuclear waste in U.S. history.
Southern California Edison blamed delays that came as it finalized plans to send the vessel on a 15,500-mile trip around the icy tip of South America to a nuclear graveyard in Barnwell, S.C., spokesman Ray Golden said.
The vessel will remain safely in place, wrapped in tons of steel and concrete, at the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station next to the ocean between Los Angeles and San Diego. Edison will explore other options to get the vessel to the East Coast, including a domestic route.
Edison has spent several million dollars getting the vessel ready for shipment and seeking approval from more than a dozen government agencies since 1999.
Plans had called for a truck to carry the decommissioned reactor vessel down a 17-mile stretch of the California coast. A barge was to take the vessel on a 90-day voyage past Cape Horn to the East Coast. Finally, a train was to haul the vessel to South Carolina.
"It's good news from an environmental perspective because the reactor's much safer in our opinion ... on site," said Tom Clements, senior adviser to Greenpeace International's nuclear campaign. "Plus, it avoids a diplomatic confrontation with Chile and Argentina."
Critics said the company was risking disaster by sailing the vessel past Cape Horn, one of the world's most dangerous nautical passages. Daniel Hirsch, president of the Committee to Bridge the Gap, a Los Angeles-based nuclear watchdog group, called it "the worst possible route from a safety standpoint you can come up with."
Countries along the route had raised objections, most notably Argentina, where a federal court last month banned the vessel from entering its 200-mile territorial waters.
Continued delays would mean the passage around Cape Horn would occur closer to South America's winter, when the weather often turns treacherous, Golden said. The utility also had to avoid the March breeding season of the western snowy plover, a threatened species that nests on the beaches where the reactor would have passed.
Edison's record-breaking route wasn't its first choice. A plan to get the vessel to South Carolina by rail and barge fell apart when Edison failed to reach terms with a railroad company. Then the Panama Canal refused to waive new weight limits for nuclear waste.
The decommissioned reactor generated enough power for 450,000 homes from 1968 until it was shut down in 1992. Modifications that could have kept it running were deemed too expensive.
On the Net:
Southern California Edison: http://www.edison.com/
Transportation Department: www.dot.gov
Nuclear Regulatory Commission: www.nrc.gov
Barnwell disposal site: http://www.chemnuclear.com/
AP-ES-02-03-04 2234EST
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Ricin Probe Starts With Effort to Identify if Mail Carried Substance to Senate

By Curt Anderson Associated Press Writer
Published: Feb 3, 2004
WASHINGTON (AP) - Federal investigators sought Tuesday to identify a letter or package that may have carried ricin into a leading senator's mailroom as new links emerged between letters containing the deadly poison found in South Carolina and a White House mail facility.
A senior law enforcement official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said investigators had established strong links between the South Carolina and White House letters. What remained unclear, the official said, was whether those letters were connected to the substance found in the office of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.
The letter found in October in South Carolina - signed by someone who called himself "Fallen Angel" - and one found in November at a facility that processes mail for the White House both complained about new regulations requiring certain amounts of rest for truck drivers, the official said. Both also contained ricin.
Investigators said Tuesday they had not identified the letter or package that might have carried ricin into Frist's office. An initial check found no extortion, threat or complaint letter in the office, said a second law enforcement source also speaking on condition of anonymity.
There also were no indications of involvement by foreign terrorists such as al-Qaida, which the FBI has said is interested in using ricin in an attack.
The powdery white substance was found on a device that opens mail in Frist's office, authorities said. The area in the Tennessee senator's office was quarantined and stacks of mail were to be checked.
"We have an open mind about the source of this," said Terrance Gainer, chief of the U.S. Capitol Police, which is conducting the probe along with the FBI and the multi-agency joint terrorism task force based at the FBI's Washington field office.
Gainer said authorities were interviewing members of Frist's staff and others who had access to the mailroom. Although it was considered remotely possible that the ricin was physically planted in Frist's office, investigators were concentrating on mail as the likely source.
The package found in a South Carolina mail facility had a letter claiming that the author could make more ricin and a threat to "start dumping" large quantities if his demands to stop the new trucking regulations were not met. The FBI offered a $100,000 reward in that case but no arrests have been made.
The White House letter, intercepted in November, contained nearly identical language but such weak amounts of ricin that it was not deemed a major health threat, said another law enforcement official. That letter's existence was not publicly disclosed before Tuesday.
In Connecticut, a coarse gray powder found at one of the state's postal facilities tested negative for ricin, said Mark Saunders, spokesman for the U.S. Postal Service. The material was leaking out of a letter addressed to the Republican National Committee.
Saunders said officials also are testing a material found at a Washington, D.C., postal facility on V Street "out of an abundance of caution." Government mail is sorted at that facility, which was closed Tuesday.
At the Capitol, an FBI hazardous materials team was helping police isolate and examine the mail in Frist's office and will in the coming days collect other unopened mail in the Capitol complex, said FBI spokeswoman Debra Weierman. The FBI also will do forensic analysis at its laboratory in Quantico, Va., checking evidence for fingerprints, fibers, hair and the like.
The latest discovery comes as the FBI continues its 28-month-old investigation into the fall 2001 mailings of anthrax-laced letters to Senate and news media offices. Five people died and 17 were injured in that attack.
The anthrax investigation is ongoing, FBI spokesman Ed Cogswell said.
Twenty-eight FBI agents and 12 postal inspectors are assigned full-time to the anthrax case, which has involved some 5,000 interviews and issuance of 4,000 subpoenas.
The FBI has focused recently on an intensive scientific effort to determine how the spores were made and narrow the possibilities in terms of who had the means to make them. Authorities have many theories on who might be responsible, ranging from al-Qaida terrorists to a disgruntled scientist to an expert who sought to expose U.S. vulnerabilities to bioweapons attacks.
The one man named a "person of interest" by authorities, Dr. Steven J. Hatfill, says he has nothing to do with the attacks and has sued the government for publicly identifying him. Hatfill is a former government scientist and bioweapons expert who once worked at the Army Medical Research Institute of Infections Diseases at Fort Detrick, Md.
Hatfill has been under constant surveillance for months but has not been charged.
Michael Greenberger, director of the University of Maryland's Center for Health and Homeland Security and a former Justice Department official under President Clinton, said the Hatfill episode should change the way the federal authorities handle such investigations.
"The only lesson that's been learned is that they will be very slow to announce they have a person of interest," Greenberger said. "They won't make their investigation so public."
AP-ES-02-03-04 2224EST
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Halliburton Subsidiary Wins British Military Contract
The Associated Press
Published: Feb 3, 2004
LONDON (AP) - Britain's government on Tuesday awarded a Halliburton Co. subsidiary a contract for running the supply chain for shipping military equipment to British troops, a day after the company agreed to pay $11.4 million in potential overcharges to the U.S. Pentagon.
The $22 million contract was given to the construction and engineering group Kellogg Brown & Root.
The Ministry of Defense stressed the deal would be "the best way forward" for logistic support for the British forces, saying the company would deal with all their equipment supply needs.
Kellogg Brown & Root, the Halliburton subsidiary, was chosen for the contract based on "performance, responsiveness and overall value for money," a ministry spokeswoman said.
Rigorous checks had been carried out into the subsidiary in collaboration with the U.S. Defense Department and regular audits will be done during the seven-year contract, she said on condition of anonymity.
Kellogg Brown & Root agreed Monday to reimburse the Pentagon $11.4 million for potential overcharges on meals served at military dining facilities in Iraq, a Pentagon official said Tuesday, speaking on condition of anonymity.
That is in addition to $16 million it had already agreed to reimburse for other potential overcharges at a Kuwait dining facility.
Last month, Kellogg Brown & Root reimbursed the U.S. Pentagon $6.3 million after disclosing that two employees had taken kickbacks from a Kuwaiti subcontractor in return for work providing services to U.S. troops in Iraq.
Halliburton, which is based in Houston, Texas, has complained repeatedly that criticism of its work in Iraq is politically motivated, in part because of its past ties with U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney.
He was the company's chairman from 1995 to 2000.
AP-ES-02-03-04 2152EST
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Posted by maximpost at 11:06 PM EST
Permalink

READERS' FORUM
Accessing the Full Range of Open Sources
It is with some satisfaction that I have seen increased attention to Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) in the International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, with Dr. Robert Pringle's ``The Limits of OSINT: Diagnosing the Soviet Media, 1985-1989'' (IJIC, Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 280- 289) being but the most recent. I have no quarrel with his conclusions. I do, however, wish to make a suggestion to those who might wish to pursue, as Dr. Pringle recommends, additional case studies. It is essential that scholars and practitioners carefully note both what was known from open sources of information, and what could have been known had the United States Intelligence Community been more professional and more thorough in its exploitation of the full range of open sources, not only from principal countries such as Russia and China, but from the adjacent countries as well.
The reality is that during the Cold War the U.S. exploited, at best, perhaps 20 percent of the available open sources. Even today, on such an important target as China, its coverage is mediocre. On harder targets, such as Central Asia, or East Africa, or the Pacific Rim nations, it sinks to abysmal. The U.S. continues to lack an earmarked OSINT Program within the National Foreign Intelligence Program (NFIP), and it continues to lack both a nonprofit or governmental center of excellence for constantly inventorying and evaluating ``best practices, best prices'' for all manner of open source offerings in 29? languages, and a dedicated governmental center or executive agency for actually ``doing'' OSINT on behalf of the 100,000 allsource professionals whose access to open sources continues to be, more often than not, at their own expense on their own time. OSINT has been marginal in the past, and it continues to be marginal today. It would be helpful if all future case studies helped to document the difference between what was, what could have been, and what might in the future be under enlightened and truly ``all-source'' leadership.
Robert David Steele
Open Source Solutions, Inc.
Oakton, Virginia
AND COUNTERINTELLIGENCE VOLUME 17, NUMBER 1 183
O?ering Insights into the Present
As the title of his recent review of our book Strategic Denial and Deception: The Twenty-First Century Challenge1 suggests, Jeffrey T. Richelson takes Roy Godson and me to task for ``Avoiding New Issues''--if not violating the principle of truth in advertising--by not selecting a more appropriate name for our collection of essays.2 Richelson suggests that we ignore the hot issues of the day (e.g., al-Qaeda, Iraq) and remain mired in some distant, and apparently irrelevant, past. Admittedly, we should probably beg forgiveness for the choice hyperbole used to pitch our book to a broader market: at the outset of the project we considered--but rejected--a more mundane title for the volume (i.e., Expect Your Enemies to Hide Their Plans: A Few Inconsequential Thoughts on an Old, Reoccurring Problem That Policymakers Often Ignore). On a more serious note, Richelson clearly wrote his review of our work with the 11 September 2001 tragedy in mind. By contrast, our volume, which took form between July 1999 and July 2000, could only anticipate that day's tragic events. In hindsight, we probably should have included a short preface that noted when the papers were written, but we did not anticipate how much and how quickly attitudes and circumstances would change. I believe, however, that our contributors have produced a collection of essays able to withstand the test of time because they offer important insights into a recurring threat in international politics, a problem now made salient by a skyline that will never be the same. Richelson's suggestion that it might be better to use current events instead of history to make our points reflects the severity of today's threats to U.S. security, not some methodological flaw on our part. His critique of our work is misleading in three important ways: it suggests that our use of history offers little insight into today's events; it focuses on tertiary issues related to the relationship between the release of classified data and denial and deception; and it ignores an important observation about who is likely to integrate denial and deception into diplomatic and military policy.
The Past as Prologue
Imagine a time when the U.S. economy is booming. People are preoccupied with day trading, sex scandals, and finding a way to become involved in a red hot telecommunications industry that is producing millionaires by the score. Concern about foreign and defense policy, intelligence, counterintelligence, and internal security seem to many to be just ``old think,'' something only
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a few Cold War dinosaurs consider to be much of a problem. Globalization promises to bring wealth to everybody as international air travel, credit cards, and virtually free and potentially universal Internet access makes a small world even smaller.
This was the environment that prompted us to put pens to paper to remind our readers that strategic denial and deception had not been relegated to the ash heap of history along with the Soviet Union. We suggested that without denial and deception, terrorists, nefarious non-state actors, and criminal organizations would not exist and would be unable to carry out their operations. We also surveyed the ways various kinds of regimes were likely to employ denial and deception. As a methodology, we selected incidents of denial and deception drawn from history to highlight theoretical points of interest.
Richelson criticizes us for failing to talk about current concerns. In reality, however, we did a reasonable job of anticipating what was about to unfold. J. Bowyer Bell's analysis of the role of denial and deception in the first attack on the World Trade Center could easily serve as an explanation of the 9=11 tragedy. Bell explained how denial and deception allowed extremists to blend into American society, passing beneath our collective radar screen, so to speak. As for its relevance to current events, it is clear now that Bell's focus on Islamic fundamentalism, how terrorists could easily emerge from our midst, and the identification of the World Trade Center as a prime target was, unfortunately, accurate.
Richelson also criticizes Barton Whaley for retelling some ancient history (i.e., the interwar denial and deception campaign undertaken by Germans to hide their rearmament activities) instead of focusing on the obvious contemporary case of Iraq to illustrate the way dictatorships employ denial and deception. But Whaley's case study is a multifaceted tale that offers insight into virtually every twist and turn of the Iraq saga. For example, Whaley suggested that dictatorships would use denial and deception not only to hide clandestine weapons programs, but also to exaggerate their military strength once opponents discovered their nascent military capability. History might in fact judge that Iraqi denial and deception was at its best when it came to exaggerating rather than hiding Iraqi military capability. But it would be impossible to reach this conclusion, for instance, by recounting Saddam Hussein's effort to lull the world into a false sense of security prior to the first Gulf War, because much of Iraq's denial and deception in the late 1980s was intended to minimize the scope of its efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction.
Declassi?cation and Denial and Deception
Richelson also takes exception to James Bruce's and Lynn Hansen's suggestion that the authorized and unauthorized release of intelligence data
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can aid an opponent's denial and deception efforts. By tipping opponents off to intelligence sources and methods, disclosure of classified information makes it harder for the U.S. intelligence community to generate timely and accurate analyses once the opponent has been alerted to vulnerabilities that are being exploited for information. Richelson suggests that sloppy analysis, inattention, or misplaced priorities, rather than the opponent's denial and deception, are at least partially to blame for instances of poor performance by the intelligence community. I agree with Richelson on this point, but would also emphasize that a comprehensive analysis of the intelligence community's performance was beyond the scope of our study. I also would add one point to Richelson's observation. There is no reason to make it harder for the intelligence community to get things right by compromising sources and methods, which in fact was the point of the essays written by Bruce and Hansen.
I lose the thread of Richelson's argument, however, when he suggests that ``tradition and compulsion'' often govern classification schemes within the intelligence community. In Richelson's view, mundane material is frequently classified, even though it already is in the public domain. As a result, according to Richelson, ``national security reporting will continue to involve the reporting of classified information.'' Admittedly, much material that gets a classification stamp is available from unclassified sources, but the media or the public rarely notices the release of these mundane classified materials (e.g., how much would the world change if I produced a highly classified document stating that the United States possesses nuclear weapons?). Richelson is suggesting, however, that those who report this ``inappropriately classified'' information are really just writing about things everyone knows anyway, which seems to me to be a bit disingenuous. After all, to be newsworthy or noteworthy, information has to have some significance. By contrast, Bruce and Hansen are concerned not about the release of some thirty-year-old National Intelligence Estimate, but about press leaks that destroy highly sensitive and valuable intelligence operations.3 Bruce and Hansen understand why the media areattracted to sensational leaks from the intelligence community (i.e., to sell newspapers and books), and are more concerned about changing a culture within the intelligence community and the U.S. government that often ignores the long-term consequences of releasing details about ongoing operations or state-of-the-art collection systems to the public.
Americans Don't Do D&D
Richelson states that we ignore U.S. efforts at denial and deception. He reiterates both Walter Jajko's categorical statement of this position (``the United States does not know how to practice systemic strategic deception in peacetime'') and the explanation for this state of affairs by Illana Kass
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(``why bother with fancy footwork, since we have overwhelming force''). In fact, I would go farther than Jajko and assert that the United States in recent times has not relied on strategic denial and deception in wartime either. Because they possess overwhelming military capability compared to their potential opponents, U.S. officials use coercion, compellence, and threats short of war to get weaker opponents to comply with their wishes. Beyond a certain ``sporting assumption,''4 there is little role for denial and deception in U.S. diplomacy because it would make no sense to surprise opponents with unexpected death and destruction when one is trying to force them to comply with one's wishes without a fight.
The classic example of this phenomenon occurred on the eve of the first Gulf War, when Secretary of State James Baker delivered a letter for Saddam Hussein to Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz outlining in detail what was to befall Iraq if it did not withdraw its forces from Kuwait. Officials in the first Bush administration believed that the sycophants surrounding Saddam were preventing accurate information about what was soon to befall Iraq from reaching the top of the kleptocracy in Baghdad. Powerful states, cerates paribus, have far more reliable, effective and readily available ways of dealing with opponents than denial and deception (e.g., coercion or outright destruction). Strategic denial and deception has been at best a tertiary factor in U.S. foreign and defense policy, although U.S. military planners use it as a minor force multiplier on the battlefield to obtain tactical advantages.5
Wrong Country, Wrong Past?
In the end, Richelson suggests that a focus on history might not be so bad after all; it is just that we focused on the wrong history. He suggests that we should have retold the history of U.S. denial and deception over the last twenty-three years, with the starting point a meeting attended by William J. Casey on 8 April 1981 that included a ``DoD brief on U.S. strategic deception program.'' I have no idea what was discussed that spring day twenty-three years ago, but I doubt that it would shed much light on the threats posed today by organized crime, terrorists, or states that seek to hide clandestine programs to develop weapons of mass destruction. A better understanding of denial and deception is not to be found in the mundane bureaucratic record of a state that does not use denial and deception as a strategic instrument in its foreign and defense policy.
By contrast, Strategic Denial and Deception: The Twenty-First Century Challenge continues to offer important insights into our current predicament. I only wish that I were smart enough to grasp the full implications of Bo Bell's suggestion, made in the summer of 1999, that a new form of denial and deception was being employed by terrorists; i.e., to
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blend in at the fringes of society to work amongst us and right under the noses of civil authorities to perfect some complex scheme. But that is what denial and deception is all about: sometimes only a little is needed to enable fanatics to return to lower Manhattan and destroy their chosen target.
REFERENCES
1 Roy Godson and James J. Wirtz, eds., Strategic Denial and Deception: The Twenty-First Century Challenge (New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers, 2002).
2 Jeffery T. Richelson, ``Avoiding New Issues,'' International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, Vol. 16, No. 1, Spring 2003, pp. 131-139.
3 James Bruce has recently cited a September 1971 Washington Post article written by Jack Anderson as a case in point. Anderson wrote that U.S. intelligence organizations were intercepting telephone calls made by Politburo members from their limousines as they drove around Moscow. Soon after the report, the transmissions ceased. See James B. Bruce, ``The Consequences of Permissive Neglect,'' Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 47, No. 1, 2003, p. 41.
4 It would not be sporting to expect that U.S. officials would tell allies or enemies everything that is on their minds and everything they might do under all circumstances.
5 For example, Salim Sinan al-Harethi, the senior al-Qaeda operative killed on 4 November 2002 by a U.S.-controlled Predator unmanned aerial vehicle, probably never even knew what hit him (denial). Rumor has it, however, that the missile ``whistled Dixie'' just before impact (deception).
James J. Wirtz
Monterey, California
188 READERS' FORUM

Posted by maximpost at 6:19 PM EST
Updated: Tuesday, 3 February 2004 11:12 PM EST
Permalink

>> KOREA UPDATE...POSTURE DISSONANCE? SEND JUSTIN?


http://www.theworld.org/latesteditions/20040203.shtml
North Korea report (4:30)
North Korea has agreed to a fresh round of multilateral talks on its nuclear program. The previous round ended badly last August after just three days. The World's Jeb Sharp reports.

North Korea intelligence interview (4:30)
The United States doesn't know precisely what's in North Korea's nuclear stores. There IS some intelligence available, but its reliability can be called into question in light of the debacle with Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. Host Marco Werman speaks with Joel Wit, senior fellow with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.


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U.S. military blames lap dances for declining military discipline
Special to World Tribune.com
EAST-ASIA-INTEL.COM
Tuesday, February 3, 2004
SEOUL - The U.S. military has asked South Korea to ban lap dancing and other lewd acts at local nightclubs near its bases, saying they negatively impact military discipline.
The officials said the military was taking similar steps at other bases in the United States and overseas against lap dancing.
The U.S. Army's 2nd Infantry Division, which has 15,000 troops near the border with North Korea, recently sent letters to the South Korean Special Tourist Association and local mayors urging a crack down on lap dancing clubs near barracks.
Describing "client-focused exotic dancing" as the principal cause of worsening military discipline, the military letter called for local club owners to "prohibit any physical contact between dancers and (U.S.) customers." South Korean lap dancing clubs are totally dependent on American customers because they are not allowed to take local clients.
U.S. officials declined to specify what they meant by worsening military discipline.
"We are following trends in the United States," Lt. Col. Chris Bailey, the 2nd Infantry Division's assistant chief of staff, told the Stars & Stripes newspaper. The U.S. Forces Korea has consulted mainland laws banning lap dancing, he said.
The more than 90 American installations throughout South Korea have long been a source of friction between residents living near the U.S. facilities, who complain of pollution, noise and traffic from the U.S. bases and occasional crimes by American troops.
Many crimes committed by U.S. servicemen involve nightclubs near their barracks. Amid an increasing number of American troops accused of crimes, their legal protection has become a sensitive issues for the two governments.
"The USFK will root out any practices that go contrary to a positive environment for U.S. soldiers, Korean residents and people of all nationalities," said Chae Yang-To, a spokesman for the 2nd Infantry Division.
The United States maintains 37,000 troops in South Korea to help defend it from a potential conflict with North Korea under a bilateral defense treaty signed after the 1950-1953 Korean War.

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More expulsions of Saudis expected
By LOU MARANO
WASHINGTON, Feb. 2 (UPI) -- More expulsions from the United States of Saudis with diplomatic status are expected, a Middle East area expert who has closely been following developments, said Monday.
On Thursday State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher confirmed that 16 Saudi nationals who had been accredited to the embassy in Washington had been asked to leave. "We were able to determine that they were not, in fact, working as diplomats in the Saudi Embassy, but rather were teaching in Northern Virginia and therefore were not entitled to diplomatic status. Since they were on diplomatic visas, ... we had to tell them your visa status is no longer valid. We gave them till Feb. 22 to clean up their affairs and leave the country," Boucher said.
The place of instruction is the Institute of Islamic and Arabic Sciences in America in Fairfax, Va. Phones at the institute were not answered Monday. The institute's Web site says it was established in 1989 and is affiliated with al-Imam Muhammad Ibn Saud Islamic University in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
One of the "Frequently Asked Questions" is: "What kind of Islam does IIASA teach?" The answer, in part, is that the institute teaches Islam as it was revealed. "IIASA believes in teaching and presenting Islam in the best way peacefully and moderately. Unlike what some might think, there is no such thing as the 'Wahabi' teachings of Islam," the Web site said.
About 70 Saudis with diplomatic visas have left the United States since late 2003, published sources have reported.
Some have been involved with the Saudi defense attache's office, and others with the cultural attache's office, said the Middle East expert, who asked not to be identified.
"Saudi Arabia is giving cover to a whole bunch of preachers under diplomatic cover, including military cover," said the source, "and more expulsions are expected."
On Friday the Saudi government commented in three brief statements. The deputy chief of the Saudi diplomatic mission, Ambassador Ahmad bin Abdulaziz Kattan, said the institute was established for teaching the Arabic language "as well as for preaching the Islamic religion in America."
After Sept. 11, 2001, the ambassador said, the State Department "started to strictly implement the diplomatic systems." Therefore, "it was an impossible matter for the embassy to interfere or mediate as long as the work of the (institute's staff) was outside the building of the embassy in violation to the diplomatic norms."
Kattan made it clear that the departure of the instructors does not mean the institute will be closed or cease performing its mission.
"On the contrary, the institute will legally be turned into a charitable American foundation, and subsequently it will be possible for personnel of universities in the (Saudi) kingdom to obtain regular entry visas to the U.S. and to work at the Institute."
The ambassador said the expelled employees could return to the United States in the same capacity or visit the United States for any other purpose.
Copyright 2004 by United Press International.
All rights reserved.
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Belligerent Behavior by Saudi Traveler, Vague Answers Raised Inspector's Suspicions
By Mike Schneider Associated Press Writer
Published: Feb 2, 2004
ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) - The first thing that raised immigration inspector Jose Melendez-Perez's suspicions was that the visitor from Saudi Arabia did not have a return airplane ticket.
The second red flag was his body language - belligerent and defiant. He pointed his finger at Melendez-Perez's face during an interview Aug. 4, 2001 at the Orlando airport. Melendez-Perez refused entry to the man, who investigators now believe may have been the 20th Sept. 11 hijacker.
"I thought when this guy made the gestures, something was wrong," Melendez-Perez told reporters at a news conference Monday. "The look he gave me. His body language."
The Saudi man, identified by U.S. officials only as al-Qahtani, was placed on an airplane back to Saudi Arabia. He wound up in Afghanistan where he was captured by U.S. forces. He now is being held at the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
After the attacks, Melendez-Perez asked the airport to contact the FBI about the August interview and give the agency copies of the file. But he never heard from the FBI.
"I really can't answer why they didn't contact me," Melendez-Perez said. "I don't know if it's because the investigation was going in a different direction."
Special Agent Sara Oates declined to comment on why the FBI had not interviewed Melendez.
Melendez-Perez's actions earned him the praise of his supervisors and an invitation to testify before the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, which he did last week.
"He's the kind of officer who believes that 100 percent is the standard," said H. Denise Crawford, director of field operations for the U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
Melendez-Perez spent an hour and a half interviewing al-Qahtani, who was sent to him because the inspector on the front line could not communicate with the traveler. Using an Arabic translator, Melendez-Perez asked his first question, "Why don't you have a return ticket?"
The well-groomed man was defiant, pointing his finger at Melendez-Perez, and answered that a friend was arriving in the United States a few days later and knew where he would be going.
"His body language was showing, like, 'I don't care,'" Melendez-Perez said. "This guy didn't show me any respect at all."
When Melendez-Perez asked the purpose of his trip, the man told him a vacation. But the answer didn't make sense to the inspector.
"Why are you coming in for vacation for six days and you're going to wait for someone who is coming over from overseas for three or four days to take you around?" Melendez-Perez said.
After the man refused to answer further questions under oath, Melendez-Perez decided to deny the man entry, but only after checking with supervisors because complaints had made supervisors wary of denying people entry.
The man became upset and said he wasn't going to purchase a return ticket.
"So we said, 'No problem, we'll pay for your plane ticket and tonight you'll spend in a detention facility,'" he said.
AP-ES-02-02-04 1754EST
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Saudi agents arrest 7 Al Qaida, may have foiled major attack
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Monday, February 2, 2004
ABU DHABI -- Saudi Arabia has recorded what could be a major success in foiling Al Qaida plans to launch an attack during the current Islamic pilgrimage to the kingdom.
Saudi authorities have arrested seven Al Qaida insurgents who were said to have been planning an imminent attack. The Interior Ministry said security forces also captured large amounts of weapons and explosives that suggested plans for a suicide strike.
The raids took place on late Thursday, the sources said, hours after six Saudi security agents were killed in a shootout with Al Qaida insurgents in Riyad. The shootout and the raids took place in the Al Siliye district in eastern Riyad, Middle East Newsline reported.
[Nearly 250 Muslim worshipers died in a hajj stampede Sunday during the annual stoning of Satan ritual in one of the deadliest tragedies at the notoriously perilous ceremony, AP reported. The stampede, during a peak event of the annual Muslim pilgrimage, or hajj, lasted about a half-hour, Saudi officials said. There were 244 dead and hundreds of other worshippers injured, some critically, Hajj Minister Iyad Madani said. "All precautions were taken to prevent such an incident, but this is God's will. Caution isn't stronger than fate," Madani said. Most of the victims were pilgrims from inside the Saudi kingdom and many were not authorized to participate, he said.]
Saudi security agents raided at least two suspected insurgency strongholds over the weekend in Riyad on the eve of the Id Al Adha holiday.
About 1.4 million pilgrims have flocked to Mecca, where the kingdom has deployed about 5,000 troops.
The ministry said authorities captured a car packed with explosives as well as 21 explosives belts in the weekend raids. In addition, security forces found such weapons as booby-trapped mobile phones, detonators, grenades, machine guns, AK-47 Kalashnikov rifles, rocket-propelled grenades and launchers.
Saudi security sources said the Al Qaida agents apparently had sought to enter a Western compound or sensitive facility in Riyad. The sources said the insurgents obtained military uniforms in an attempt to smuggle weapons past checkpoints and roadblocks.
On Jan. 12, the Interior Ministry said security forces had captured about 300 explosives belts and nearly 24 tons of explosive materials. At the time, security sources said the material was believed to have arrived from neighboring Yemen.

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Dozens injured in second stampede
From correspondents in Mina, Saudi Arabia
February 3, 2004
DOZENS of unconscious pilgrims were taken to hospital in the town of Mina near the Muslim holy city of Mecca today after being caught in another stampede during the stoning of the devil ritual, the Saudi health minister said.
Unlike yesterday's stampede in which 251 pilgrims were killed, there were no deaths this time, Hamad al-Mani told reporters.
"A stampede occurred this evening (local time) on the stoning bridge which caused a large number of pilgrims to fall to the ground," said Mani.
"But security officers intervened and stopped the flow of people onto the bridge, as they attended to the fallen pilgrims who were unconscious or breathless."
He said "dozens of pilgrims" were transported to Mina's General Hospital where they were treated and their "lives saved".
Since dawn, hundreds of thousands of Muslim pilgrims have flocked to the 272-metre-long esplanade and the bridge above it to throw stones at three pillars representing the devil, in the last major ritual of the pilgrimage.
They were channelled by a wall of hundreds of security officers who prevented any of them from taking their bags or belongings onto the esplanade in an effort to avoid a repeat of yesterday's tragedy.
The high-risk ritual, which has resulted in similar deadly incidents in the past, is expected to continue until midnight (8am AEDT) today and to resume at dawn tomorrow for a final day.
Agence France-Presse

-----------------------------------------------------------
2 Caught Placing Bomb Near Iraq Refinery
Iraqi Police Catch Two Men Placing a Roadside Bomb Near Baghdad's Main Oil Refinery, U.S. Says
The Associated Press
BAGHDAD, Iraq Feb. 2 -- Iraqi police caught two men placing a roadside bomb Monday near the capital's main Doura oil refinery, a U.S. commander said.
The two men were believed to be an Iranian and an Afghan, but "we have to first develop that through interrogation and try and determine what that means," Brig. Gen. Martin Dempsey, commander of the 1st Armored Division, told a news conference
He did not elaborate.
With a refining capacity of 110,000 barrels of oil a day, Doura produces much of the gasoline, heating oil and cooking gas supplies for Baghdad. It also distributes crude oil used as fuel by two of the capital's four electric plants.
Dempsey, whose division is in charge of Baghdad, did not say how destructive the bomb could have been or how close it was to the main facility of the refinery.
Last month, guards at Doura seized a group of intruders and a subsequent search turned up more than 80 containers of explosives, suggesting a planned attack that could have crippled the facility.
Insurgents have attacked or tried to bomb oil pipelines in several other parts of the country in the past in a bid to cripple the country's main export.
Copyright 2004 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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>> FOGGY BOTTOM WATCH 1...

Counter-terror tops in State Dept. budget
WASHINGTON, Feb. 2 (UPI) -- The State Department's budget request for the next fiscal year will fund the war on terror and "vigorous" public diplomacy, documents released Monday said.
The FY 2005 request totals $8.552 billion out of a $2.4 trillion federal budget that shows increases for defense and homeland security.
The request provides $659 million in upgrades to the security of diplomatic personnel and facilities in the face of terrorism, and it adds 71 security staffers worldwide.
Another 183 positions overseas will be funded by $44 million, including staffing for U.S. embassies in Baghdad and Kabul.
The request provides $1.54 billion to support security-related construction projects, including the construction of new embassy compounds in eight countries.
Some $1.2 billion is allocated to 44 international organizations, including the United Nations.
The budget requests $309 million in direct appropriations for public diplomacy to influence foreign opinion and encourage support for U.S. foreign policy goals.
Copyright 2004 by United Press International.
All rights reserved.

----------------------------------------------------------

>> FOGGY BOTTOM WATCH 2...

U.S. denies it will compensate Libya for WMD
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Monday, February 2, 2004
The United States has rejected the precendent set by the Clinton administration on North Korea, and will not compensate Libya for the dismantling of its weapons of mass destruction program.
"No, we're not compensating nations for dismantling illicit nuclear weapons programs," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said on Jan. 29. "And we're confident Libya understands that."
Boucher rejected an assertion by Seif Al Islam, the son of Libyan ruler Moammar Khaddafy, that the United States would compensate Tripoli for the cost of its nuclear program. Al Islam said Libya sought to use its nuclear program for such civilian purposes as desalinating water.
Last week, the United States flew Libyan centrifuge equipment along with guidance systems for extended-range Scud C and Scud D missiles to a nuclear facility in Tennessee. Officials said this would be the first of several shipments of Libyan WMD to the United States, Middle East Newsline reported.
The department said Libya has not made this a condition in the dismantling of Libya's nuclear weapons and other WMD programs.
U.S. officials said the Bush administration would not offer Libya the deal made with North Korea in 1994. At the time, the Clinton administration agreed to compensate Pyongyang for the halt in its nuclear weapons program by financing the purchase of two light water reactors. The agreement was never implemented.
"I speak of the policy of this administration," Boucher said.
Officials said the United States was discussing with Libya its participation in a project meant to reduce the risk of dismantling Tripoli's nuclear weapons program. This would include help to protect civilian nuclear facilities as well as the training of Libyan nuclear scientists so that they would not be recruited in such countries as Iran or Pakistan.

Posted by maximpost at 6:10 PM EST
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>> TRIUMVIRATE WRECK?
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Suicide Bombings in Northern Iraq
The Bush administration is in a race with time and Iraqi insurgents, who want to stop the orderly transfer of power now scheduled for mid-summer. This weekend's double suicide bombing brought terrorism and chaos to the Kurdish North and may create a new obstacle to unifying the country. Meantime, In the South, massive street demonstrations have raised the prospect of tyranny by the majority Shiites, who are demanding direct elections. With just three weeks until the deadline for an interim constitution, can Iraq's diverse populations be reconciled? Will the US get any help from the United Nations? We update America's race against time and the violence that threatens an orderly process.


>> OUR FRIEND PERVEZ...

washingtonpost.com
Musharraf Named in Nuclear Probe
Senior Pakistani Army Officers Were Aware of Technology Transfers, Scientist Says

By John Lancaster and Kamran Khan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, February 3, 2004; Page A13
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Feb. 2 -- Pakistan's top nuclear scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan, has told investigators that he helped North Korea design and equip facilities for making weapons-grade uranium with the knowledge of senior military commanders, including Gen. Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's president, according to a friend of Khan's and a senior Pakistani investigator.
Khan also has told investigators that Gen. Mirza Aslam Beg, the Pakistani army chief of staff from 1988 to 1991, was aware of assistance Khan was providing to Iran's nuclear program and that two other army chiefs, in addition to Musharraf, knew and approved of his efforts on behalf of North Korea, the same individuals said Monday.
Khan's assertions of high-level army involvement came in the course of a two-month probe into allegations that he and other Pakistani nuclear scientists made millions of dollars from the sale of equipment and expertise to Iran, Libya and North Korea.
They contradict repeated contentions by Musharraf and other senior officials that Khan and at least one other scientist, Mohammed Farooq, acted out of greed and in violation of long-standing government policy that bars the export of nuclear weapons technology to any foreign country.
In conversations with investigators, Khan urged them to question the former army commanders and Musharraf, asserting that "no debriefing is complete unless you bring every one of them here and debrief us together," according to the friend, who has met with the accused scientist twice during the past two months.
On the basis of Khan's claims, Beg and another former army chief of staff, Gen. Jehangir Karamat, who occupied the post from 1996 to 1998, have been questioned by investigators in recent days, but both have denied any knowledge of the transactions, according to a senior Pakistani military officer who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Gen. Shaukat Sultan, Pakistan's chief military spokesman, declined to comment on the specifics of the allegations but asserted that "General Pervez Musharraf neither authorized such transfers nor was involved in any way with such deeds, even before he was president." Beg and Karamat could not be reached for comment Monday night.
Khan and other senior scientists and officials at the Khan Research Laboratories, the uranium-enrichment facility Khan founded in 1976, have been under investigation since November, when the International Atomic Energy Agency presented Pakistan with evidence that its centrifuge designs had turned up in Iran. The flamboyant European-trained metallurgist, who is 67, became a national hero in Pakistan after the country detonated its first nuclear device in 1998.
In a briefing for Pakistani journalists late Sunday night, a senior Pakistani military officer said that Khan had signed a 12-page confession on Friday in which he admitted to providing Iran, Libya and North Korea with technical assistance and components for making high-speed centrifuges used to produce enriched uranium, a key ingredient for a nuclear bomb.
Lt. Gen. Khalid Kidwai, commander of Pakistan's Strategic Planning and Development Cell, described Khan as the mastermind of an elaborate and wholly unauthorized smuggling network involving chartered cargo flights, clandestine overseas meetings and a Malaysian factory that reconditioned centrifuge parts discarded from Pakistan's nuclear program for sale to foreign clients, according to a journalist who attended Kidwai's 21/2-hour briefing.
The technology transfers began in 1989 and were brokered by a network of middlemen, including three German businessmen and a Sri Lankan, identified only as Tahir, who is in custody in Malaysia, Kidwai told the journalists.
According to Kidwai's account, Khan told investigators that he supplied materials and assistance to Iran, Libya and North Korea not to make money but to deflect attention from Pakistan's nuclear program and -- in the case of Iran and Libya -- as a gesture of support to other Muslim countries.
The senior Pakistani investigator and a senior intelligence official said Monday that Khan also said he supplied Iran and Libya with surplus, outmoded equipment from the laboratory that he knew would not provide either country with any near-term capability to enrich uranium.
"Dr. Khan is basically contesting the merit of the nuclear proliferation charges," the investigator said. "Throughout his debriefing, Dr. Khan kept challenging the perception that material found from the Libyan or Iranian programs would allow them to enrich uranium."
Investigators contend that Khan accumulated millions of dollars in the course of a 30-year career as a government scientist, investing some of it in real estate in Pakistan and abroad. Kidwai told Pakistani journalists that investigators had reached no conclusions about the source of Khan's wealth, but he acknowledged that Khan's lavish lifestyle was "the worst-kept secret in town" and should have triggered suspicions among those responsible for protecting Pakistan's nuclear secrets, according to a journalist who attended the briefing.
Kidwai "admitted to oversight and intelligence failure," the journalist said.
Kidwai avoided any suggestion of complicity on the part of senior military commanders, including Musharraf, who has maintained throughout the investigation that any transfer of nuclear technology abroad was the work of individuals driven by greed.
By all accounts, Khan ran the laboratory at Kahuta, about 20 miles from Islamabad, with scant oversight from either civilian or military-led governments eager to achieve nuclear parity with arch rival India.
The military was ultimately responsible for the facility, where security was overseen by two army brigadiers and a special detachment from Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency, or ISI. And Khan is said to have insisted during his sessions with investigators that senior military commanders were well aware of his efforts to help other countries with their nuclear programs.
The senior Pakistani investigator said that Beg was "in the picture" regarding Khan's assistance to Iran, but said the former army chief of staff was "probably . . . under the impression that material and knowledge being transferred to Iran would not enable them to produced enriched uranium" because of Khan's claim that he was withholding top-of-the-line equipment. Investigators have found evidence that Khan informed Beg of the transfer of outdated hardware from his laboratory to Iran in early 1991, the official said.
Khan told two generals who jointly questioned him last month that three army chiefs of staff, including Musharraf, had known of his dealings with North Korea, according to the friend of the scientist. "Throughout his debriefing, Dr. Khan kept asking the generals why he was not being asked specific questions about the material he passed on to the North Koreans," the friend said.
U.S. officials have long suspected that Pakistan supplied uranium enrichment technology to North Korea in exchange for help with its ballistic missile program, and that Khan acted as the principal agent of the arrangement. After stating in 2002 that it had a program for enriching uranium for use in weapons, North Korea more recently has denied it.
A retired Pakistani army corps commander said Monday that the barter arrangement dates to December 1994, when then-Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto traveled to North Korea at the request of Gen. Abdul Waheed, the army chief of staff at the time. A few months later, Khan led a delegation of scientists and military officers to Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, according to the retired general and a senior active duty officer, both of whom spoke on condition of anonymity. Musharraf was serving at the time as Waheed's director general for military operations.
In January 1996, Waheed was replaced as chief of staff by Karamat, who secretly visited North Korea in December 1997, according to the retired corps commander. Four months after the trip, in April 1998, Karamat presided over the successful test-firing of a medium-range missile the Pakistanis called a Ghauri. According to U.S. intelligence officials and a former Pakistani nuclear scientist, the Ghauri was simply a renamed North Korean-supplied Nodong missile. Pakistani officials maintain publicly that the Ghauri missile is indigenous to Pakistan.
The senior investigator said Khan claimed that Karamat was privy to the details of the barter arrangement through which Pakistan received the missile, and that Khan had insisted that Karamat's role also be examined.
Khan also has asserted that Musharraf had to have been aware of the agreement with North Korea because Musharraf took over responsibility for the Ghauri missile program when he became army chief of staff in October 1998, according to the scientist's friend and the senior investigator.
According to Kidwai's account to journalists, senior military commanders did not get wind of Khan's nuclear dealings with North Korea until 2000, when the ISI conducted a raid on an aircraft that the laboratory had chartered for a planned flight to North Korea. Although a search of the aircraft turned up no evidence, authorities were sufficiently concerned that they warned Khan against pursuing any clandestine trade with North Korea, Kidwai told the journalists.
That concern deepened, according to Kidwai's account, after U.S. officials in 2002 and early 2003 presented evidence that Pakistani nuclear technology may indeed have found its way to North Korea.

? 2004 The Washington Post Company

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washingtonpost.com
Pakistan's Nuclear Hero Defended
By Jefferson Morley
washingtonpost.com Staff Writer
Tuesday, February 3, 2004; 10:18 AM
Online commentators in Pakistan are rallying to the defense of the country's leading nuclear scientists, one of whom has confessed to selling weapons technology to North Korea, Iran and Libya.
Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of Pakistan's nuclear program, is reportedly under house arrest in connection with a U.S.-backed investigation into the lucrative black market in nuclear weapons technology. Correspondents John Lancaster and Kamran Khan (no relation to the physicist) report in today's Washington Post that Khan has signed a 12-page confession. Khan has also reportedly told investigators that Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf knew about his efforts to help North Korea's nuclear program.
The revelation will likely stoke an already intense debate. While many Pakistanis defend Khan as a national hero, others in the South Asian media see Khan, a flamboyant self-promoter, as the scapegoat of Musharraf and the permissive nonproliferation policies of the U.S. government.
The 67-year old scientist is "being held incommunicado with heavy security around his house," according to the Times of India. The paper's headline suggests that U.S. officials in Washington are not keen to hear Khan recount the story of his nuclear-related activities in the past two decades: "US, Pak dread Khan's Disclosures."
"Washington and Islamabad," says the Delhi-based daily, are "holding their breath" to see if Khan "will spill the beans about Pakistan's official complicity in the spread of nuclear weapons technology."
In Islamabad, the pro-democracy daily The Nation says Khan's detention is "bound to create a wave of puzzled resentment among a populace which has been accustomed to regard him as the father of the national nuclear programme."
"Dr Khan could not have done anything wrong or even inappropriate without the connivance or neglect of those controlling" Pakistan's nuclear program, the editors say.
Another commentator in The Nation wonders why Musharraf has been so cooperative with the U.S. effort to hold Khan accountable.
"Why it is so that the general who shows fists to the opposition in the parliament, has become so nervous that he is not prepared to face the situation and instead seems to have become a part of the international press campaign against Pakistan's nuclear programme."
Dawn, the English-language daily that often gives voice to the Pakistani establishment, reports that opposition political leaders in the country say the sacking of Khan will cause "irreparable damage to the country's integrity."
The press in India, Pakistan's South Asian nuclear rival, turns a critical eye on the U.S. role over three decades. The Times of India goes back to the early 1980s, when Pakistan, like Saddam Hussein's Iraq, was a quietly favored U.S. ally.
As correspondent Syed Saleem Shahzad notes in the Asia Times, the U.S. Congress cleared the way for Pakistan's nuclear program. In 1981 the Congress, under pressure from Ronald Reagan's White House, voted to formally exempt Pakistan from U.S. laws prohibiting aid to any non-nuclear country engaged in illegal procurement of equipment for a nuclear weapons program. The Pakistani government also won a six-year aid package from the United States worth $3.2 billion. Free from the threat of sanctions, Pakistan conducted a cold test at a small-scale nuclear reprocessing plant in 1982. From there, the so-called Islam bomb began to grow.
Pakistan proceeded to spend some $10 billion developing a nuclear arsenal, say the editors of the Times of India. The money came from Libya, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and the depositors of the BCCI (Bank of Credit and Commerce International), which became notorious in the early 1990s for myriad criminal activities. The bank, say the editors of the Times of India, was founded by a Pakistani and operated freely in the Persian Gulf oil enclave of Dubai. It is inconceivable, they argue, that Western intelligence agencies didn't know all about this black market.
In the early 1990s, Khan began selling his technological prowess to other parties, enabling him to amass substantial properties in Pakistan as well as building a hotel in the African city of Timbuktu, according to numerous reports.
The "fabulous" Hendrina Khan Hotel, named after Khan's Dutch wife, was one of dozens of the scientist's business undertakings investigated by Pakistani intelligence officials, according to the The Indian Express.
Rajesh Mishra, a New Dehli-based defense analyst writing for the Hindustan Times, says the danger of nuclear proliferation Pakistan poses remains "alarmingly high."
"Discoveries that some members of Pakistan's scientific community are under the influence of extreme ideologies further raise the fear of sensitive information, technology or material falling into rogue hands," he writes.
Abdul Qadeer Khan himself once said: "All western countries, including Israel, are not only the enemies of Pakistan but, in fact, of Islam.'"
The Indian daily notes that one leading Pakistani physicist Bashir-uddin Mahmood, had several meetings in August 2001 with Osama bin Laden.
The Indian editors pose some hard questions about the realities of the international nuclear black market.
"Is it possible that the [Pakistani] scientists involved in State-managed clandestine deals overreached the arrangement of cooperation? "
"If so, was it a planned move [on the part of the Pakistani and U.S. governments] to overlook this extended relationship?"
They answer that question with another question:
"Or was the Pakistan government unable to question the illegitimate affairs within secret arrangements that involved a scientist like Khan?"
In other words, was the United States totally clueless while a Pakistani scientist supplied nuclear technology to Iran and North Korea?
? 2004 Washingtonpost.Newsweek Interactive
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Iranians Don't Want To Go Nuclear
By Karim Sadjadpour
Tuesday, February 3, 2004; Page A19
Do the people of Iran want the bomb? Iran's recent decision to allow for tighter inspection of its nuclear facilities -- which Iran says are for civilian purposes -- was hailed by Iranian and European officials as a diplomatic victory, while analysts and officials in Washington and Tel Aviv continue to be wary of Tehran's intentions. But despite the attention given to Iran's nuclear aspirations in recent months, one important question has scarcely been touched on: How do the Iranian people feel about having nuclear weapons?
Iranian officials have suggested that the country's nuclear program is an issue that resonates on the Iranian street and is a great source of national pride. But months of interviews I have done in Iran reveal a somewhat different picture. Whereas few Iranians are opposed to the development of a nuclear energy facility, most do not see it as a solution to their primary concerns: economic malaise and political and social repression. What's more, most of the Iranians surveyed said they oppose the pursuit of a nuclear weapons program because it runs counter to their desire for "peace and tranquility." Three reasons were commonly cited.
First, having experienced a devastating eight-year war with Saddam Hussein's Iraq that took the lives of hundreds of thousands of their compatriots, Iranians are opposed to reliving war or violence. Many Iranians said the pursuit of nuclear weapons would lead the country down a path no one wanted to travel.
Two decades ago revolutionary euphoria was strong, and millions of young men volunteered to defend their country against an Iraqi onslaught. Today few Iranians have illusions about the realities of conflict. The argument that a nuclear weapon could help serve as a deterrent to ensure peace in Iran seemed incongruous to most. "If we want peace, why would we want a bomb?" asked a middle-aged Iranian woman, seemingly concurring with an influential Iranian diplomat who contends that a nuclear weapon "would not augment Iran's security but rather heighten its vulnerabilities."
Second, while a central premise of Iran's Islamic government from the time of its inception has been its steadfast opposition to the United States and Israel, for most Iranians no such nemeses exist. Iran's young populace -- more than two-thirds of the country is younger than 30 -- is among the most pro-American in the Middle East, and tend not to share the impassioned anti-Israel sentiment of their Arab neighbors. While the excitement generated on the Indian and Pakistani streets as a result of their nuclear detonations is commonly cited to show the correlation between nuclear weapons and national pride, such a reaction is best understood in the context of the rivalry between the two countries. The majority of Iranians surveyed claimed to have little desire to show off their military or nuclear prowess to anyone. "Whom would we attack?" asked a 31-year-old laborer, echoing a commonly heard sentiment in Tehran. "We don't want war with anyone."
Finally, many Iranians, youth in particular, are opposed to the Islamic republic's becoming a nuclear power because they believe it would further entrench the hard-liners in the government. "I fear that if these guys get the bomb they will be able to hold on to power for another 25 years," said a 30-year-old Iranian professional. "Nobody wants that." In particular some expressed a concern that a nuclear Iran would be immune to U.S. and European diplomatic pressure and could continue to repress popular demands for reform without fear of repercussion.
At the same time, most Iranians -- including harsh critics of the Islamic regime -- remain unconvinced by the allegations that their government is secretly pursuing a nuclear weapons program. Many dismiss it as another bogeyman manufactured by the United States and Israel to further antagonize and isolate the Islamic regime. "I don't believe we're after a bomb," said a 25-year-old Tehran University student. "The U.S. is always looking for an excuse to harass these mullahs." A recently retired Iranian diplomat who said he is "strongly critical" of the Islamic government agreed with this assessment, saying Iran's nuclear program "is neither for defensive nor offensive purposes . . . It's only for energy purposes."
I draw two lessons from this. First, the European-brokered compromise on Iran's nuclear program, which appealed to reformists and pragmatists within the Iranian government, was also a victory of sorts for the Iranian people, who are eager to emerge from the political and economic isolation of the past two decades and are strongly in favor of increasing ties with the West. A blatant lack of cooperation with the international community would not have been well-received domestically.
Second, a more aggressive reaction by the international community -- a U.S. or Israeli attempt to strike Iran's nuclear facilities -- could well have the unintended consequence of antagonizing a highly nationalistic and largely pro-Western populace and convincing Iranians that a nuclear weapon is indeed in their national interests. Such a reaction would be disastrous for U.S. interests in the region, especially given Iran's key location between Iraq and Afghanistan.
Western and Israeli diplomats and analysts should know that the ability to solve the Iranian nuclear predicament diplomatically has broad implications for the future of democracy and nonproliferation in Iran and the rest of the Middle East. The goal is to bring the Iranian regime on the same page with the Iranian people. A non-diplomatic attempt to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities could do precisely the opposite.
The writer, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, is a visiting fellow at the American University of Beirut.
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U.S. Treads Carefully With Libya
By Robin Wright
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, February 3, 2004; Page A14
The United States is scheduled to open a political dialogue with Libya on Friday in London, with the Bush administration also considering sending a State Department envoy to Tripoli to discuss diplomatic issues with senior Libyan officials, U.S. officials said yesterday.
But the Bush administration is split over the next steps to take with the government of Moammar Gaddafi, with the Pentagon resisting major reciprocal gestures in response to Tripoli's agreement to surrender its weapons of mass destruction, the officials added.
Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said yesterday that Libya's cooperation warranted deepening the level of engagement through "political openings and developments," as promised by President Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair when they announced Tripoli's agreement to hand over all equipment and data for nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.
"We've seen a fascinating sign of change in Libyan attitudes," Powell said in an interview with editors and reporters at The Washington Post.
"We've now had a couple weeks of action on removal and verification [of weaponry], and we've learned a lot, and it was appropriate at this point that we begin a political dialogue to see what lies ahead. We're still removing material and we're still verifying, but it is a fundamentally changed situation with respect to Libya."
Assistant Secretary of State William Burns and British officials will meet with their Libyan counterparts to discuss the next steps. One possibility is to lift the ban on Americans traveling to Libya once Libya completes the dismantling of its weapons programs, U.S. officials said. Pentagon policymakers are balking, however, at other steps that U.S. officials had thought were in the pipeline. And they are actively opposed to taking Tripoli off the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, which comes out annually in the spring.
"There's a cold wind blowing on a number of forward-leaning, reciprocal moves that we thought we'd queued up. And there's outright opposition to removing Libya from the list of the state sponsors of terrorism," said a well-placed U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Although the State Department issues the list, making any changes to it involves an interagency decision, and Pentagon opposition could kill prospects of formal removal of Libya this year, U.S. officials said. Some officials and Libya experts are concerned that failing to provide the promised diplomatic carrot could frustrate and disillusion officials in Tripoli who encouraged cooperation with the United States and Britain.
On other countries, Powell indicated that the strongest prospect for removal from the terrorism list may be Sudan, which hosted al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in the 1990s. Powell said he hopes negotiations later this month to end Sudan's civil war can produce agreement on the disputed oil-rich area of Abyei, the last major hurdle. A formal peace accord would be the key in getting Sudan off the list, U.S. officials say.
But Powell also said Syria is even further away than it was last year, after failing to respond to concerns he outlined during talks with President Bashar Assad in Damascus. "They started doing a few things, but it wasn't adequate," he said.
Powell said the time had come for the Syrians to "take a hard look" at what is happening in the region "and see whether or not they want to modify some of their policies."

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>> PROGRESS NOTES...

Tax Cuts and Savings Plans
Proposal Would Change Pension Rules, Retirement Accounts
By Albert B. Crenshaw
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, February 3, 2004; Page A05
The Bush administration yesterday rolled out an array of tax cuts, savings incentives, loophole closers and collection initiatives that officials said would encourage investment, promote trade, combat abuse and simplify the tax laws.
The proposal, outlined by Treasury Department officials, would also make it easier for companies that operate traditional pension plans to convert them to "cash balance" plans -- a process that has stirred heated controversy in recent years
If enacted in its entirety, the administration's tax plan would cost the government $1.24 trillion over 10 years -- almost $1 trillion of that from extending the tax cuts passed by Congress last year, and making permanent both those cuts and others enacted in 2001 and scheduled to expire after 2010.
Many of the items on the list presented yesterday by the Treasury Department have been proposed before, including lifetime and retirement savings accounts (LSAs and RSAs), in which Americans could deposit $5,000 each year. Anyone, including children, could have an LSA, and anyone with wages could have an RSA. Contributions would not be tax-deductible, but earnings inside the account would not be taxed, and withdrawals would generally be tax-free.
Assistant Treasury Secretary Pamela F. Olson said the contribution amounts were reduced in this year's proposal, from $7,500 last year, to meet criticism that they would undermine existing retirement plans, especially in small businesses.
The proposal would also simplify the present system of 401(k) and similar employer-sponsored retirement plans by consolidating them all into a single, uniform type of plan called an employer retirement savings account, or ERSA. And it would create individual development accounts (IDAs) for low-income individuals, that would give sponsoring financial institutions a 100 percent tax credit for matching savings contributions of up to $500.
The proposals came under immediate attack from Democrats in Congress, who cited the ballooning national debt and a federal deficit that could reach $521 billion this year. Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) called the Bush budget "sadly out of touch" for asking for "another $1.2 trillion in tax cuts for the wealthy."
The proposal on cash-balance plans, though, seems likely to get attention on Capitol Hill. Last month, the legislators asked the Treasury Department for a legislative proposal on these pensions, and Olson said officials had already been working on one and thus were able to include it in the budget.
Traditional pensions tend to reward long-serving employees but do not do as well for those who change jobs frequently. Cash-balance plans are more easily portable but may provide smaller pensions to long-serving workers. When a company converts, older workers sometimes find they will ultimately receive smaller pensions, and in some cases see benefits cease to increase for years while the formula for the new plan catches up with the old one -- a process dubbed "wear-away."
The administration would deem cash-balance plans to be not age-discriminatory as long as certain tests were met, something corporate sponsors have pushed for since a recent court case ruled they were discriminatory. The proposal also would allow companies to convert if they gave workers benefits during the five years after conversion that were at least as valuable as those they would have earned under the old plan. It would also ban "wear-away."
Any company that improperly reduced benefits would be charged an excise tax equal to any savings it realized from the cuts. But companies that were losing money and also operating underfunded pension plans would not be subject to the tax, potentially rendering the protections moot for some workers, officials said.
Private pension experts were cautious in reacting to the pension proposal, since many of its details have not been disclosed or even worked out.
"Treasury deserves a lot of credit for trying to move the discussion forward. There's general agreement that the survival of cash-balance plans is fairly integral to the future survival of the [traditional pension] system," said Kyle Brown of benefits consultant Watson Wyatt Worldwide. He and others expressed reservations about how the plan might work in practice.
Also in the Treasury plan are a wide range of tax cuts, including deductions for charitable contributions by non-itemizers, a refundable tax credit for the purchase of health insurance and an exclusion of the value of employer-provided computers for telecommuters.
It would also crack down on leasing deals between taxpayers, who get deductions, and "tax-indifferent parties," such as foreign entities and U.S. subway systems and municipal water authorities, who aren't taxed on their income. The Equipment Leasing Association promptly termed that a tax increase.

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>> STATE DEPT. COMES AROUND?

'The Right Thing to Do'
Tuesday, February 3, 2004; Page A15
Excerpts from an interview yesterday with Secretary of State Colin L. Powell by Washington Post reporters and editors.
Q Do you still feel confident that military invasion [of Iraq] was the right thing to do?
A Yes, I think it was the right thing to do, and I think history will demonstrate that. . . . Let me just go right into kind of the issue of the day, which is weapons of mass destruction. . . .
What was the threat that we talked about [before the war] with respect to weapons of mass destruction? And to talk about a threat, you have to look at the intent and you have to look at capabilities, and two of them together equals a threat.
And with respect to intent, Saddam Hussein and his regime clearly had the intent -- they never lost it -- an intent that manifested itself many years ago when they actually used such horrible weapons against their enemies in Iran and against their own people. That's a fact and that's a statement of his intent. . . .
There are different levels of capability. One level is that you have the intellectual ability, you have people who know how to develop such weapons and you keep training such people and you keep them in place and you keep them working together. He did. . . . And also you keep in place the kind of technical infrastructure, labs and facilities. . . . Did he do that? Yes, he did that.
And then the final level of capability is the one that's started getting all the attention now, is: Did it all come together and produce for everybody to see and be afraid of, an actual stockpile over there? And that is what is at question and that is what we have not found and that is what the various committees will be looking at. . . .
A lot has been said about [former U.S. weapons inspector David] Kay . . . and he did say, with respect to stockpiles, we were wrong, terribly wrong. . . . But he also came to other conclusions that deal, I think, with the intent and with capability which resulted in a threat the president felt he had to respond to. . . .
And there is no doubt in my mind that if Iraq had gotten free of the [United Nations] constraints and if we had gone through another year of desultory action on the part of the United Nations . . . there's no doubt in my mind that intention and capability was married up . . . and they would have gone to the next level and reproduced these weapons. Why wouldn't they? That was always [Hussein's] intention.
If CIA Director George Tenet had said a year ago today, if U.S. weapons inspector David Kay had said, that there are no stockpiles, would you still have recommended the invasion?
I don't know. I don't know, because it was the stockpile that presented the final little piece that made it more of a real and present danger and threat to the region and to the world. But the fact of the matter is the considered judgment of the intelligence community, represented by George Tenet, and also independently by the United Kingdom and other intelligence agencies, suggested that the stockpiles were there. I can't go back and give you the hypothetical as to what I might have done.
But the absence of the stockpiles . . . .
The absence of a stockpile changes the political calculus. It changes the answer you get, the formula I laid out. But the fact of the matter is that we went into this with the understanding that there was a stockpile and there were weapons, and for my own personal perspective, you know, I was the chairman for the first Gulf War, and we went in expecting to be hit with chemical weapons. We weren't hit with chemical weapons, but we found chemical weapons. And so it wasn't as if this was a figment of someone's imagination. . . . And so what assumption would one make some nine years after the inspectors had been moved, had been gone for four years? I think the assumption to make and the assumption that we came to, based on what the intelligence community gave to us, was that there were stockpiles present.
When you went over to the [CIA] to get more information about the things you were going to say to the United Nations [in a speech in February 2003], did you, as we have heard, push them to tell you what their sources for the conclusions were? . . . When you look back on that experience, did you push hard enough? Did you get, do you think, forthright answers?
[In meetings with intelligence officials] what I wanted to know is what information could I present that you guys feel comfortable to declassify and that you will give me sources and methods on, and that you're absolutely sure was multi-sourced, because I didn't want to put something out that would be shot down later, or that same afternoon, by some other intelligence agency or by the Iraqis. And so we really went through it. And I only used that information that I was confident the [Central Intelligence] Agency stood behind. . . . It was multi-sourced, and it reflected the best judgments of all of the intelligence agencies that spent that four days out there with me. And there wasn't a word that was in that presentation that was put in that was not totally cleared by the intelligence community.

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SPIEGEL ONLINE - 03. Februar 2004, 16:25
URL: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,284788,00.html
Irakkrieg
Powell bekommt Skrupel
Colin Powell ist sich nicht mehr so sicher, ob die Entscheidung f?r den Irakkrieg richtig war. Wenn damals bekannt gewesen w?re, dass der Irak keine Massenvernichtungswaffen besitzt, h?tte er sich vielleicht nicht f?r den Feldzug gegen Saddam ausgesprochen, gestand der US-Au?enminister jetzt.
REUTERS
Au?enminister Powell
Washington - Auf die Frage, ob er sich f?r den Krieg ausgesprochen h?tte, wenn bekannt gewesen w?re, dass der Irak keine Massenvernichtungswaffen hatte, antwortete Powell: "Ich wei? es nicht, weil (Waffen)-Lager das letzte entscheidende Glied waren, das es mehr zu einer echten und akuten Gefahr f?r die Region und die Welt machte."
In dem Interview der "Washington Post" verteidigte der Au?enminister zugleich die Politik der US-Regierung. Er erkl?rte, der gest?rzte irakische Pr?sident Saddam Hussein habe die Absicht gehabt habe, biologische und chemische Waffen zu erwerben. Die Geschichte werde zeigen, dass die Entscheidung zum Krieg richtig gewesen sei.
Powell hatte in seiner Rede vor dem Uno-Sicherheitsrat am 5. Februar 2003 detaillierte Informationen ?ber angebliche irakische Massenvernichtungswaffen vorgelegt und damit der Welt die Begr?ndung f?r einen Krieg gegen den Irak pr?sentiert. Wie die "Post" berichtete, versuchte Powell in dem Interview nun die damalige Begr?ndung mit der heutigen Realit?t in Einklang zu bringen. Er gestand aber ein, dass die "Abwesenheit von (Waffen)-Lagern die politische Berechnung ver?ndere".
Der Minister reagierte mit dem halbst?ndigen Interview auf die Erkenntnisse des zur?ckgetretenen US-Chefwaffeninspektors David Kay, der dem Kongress in Washington k?rzlich erkl?rt hatte, dass Bagdad zu Kriegsbeginn wahrscheinlich keine Massenvernichtungswaffen besessen habe. Pr?sident George W. Bush hatte am Vortag erstmals einer Untersuchung der Geheimdienstinformationen ?ber angebliche irakische Massenvernichtungswaffen zugestimmt. Bush best?tigte, dass er eine unabh?ngige Kommission einberufen werde.
? SPIEGEL ONLINE 2004
Alle Rechte vorbehalten
Vervielf?ltigung nur mit Genehmigung der SPIEGELnet GmbH

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SPIEGEL ONLINE - 03. Februar 2004, 15:12
URL: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,284775,00.html
Deutsche AKW
Terroristen k?nnen GAU ausl?sen
Die Umweltschutzorganisation BUND schl?gt Alarm: Nach einem bislang unver?ffentlichten Gutachten der Gesellschaft f?r Reaktorsicherheit k?nnten Terroristen durch einen gezielten Flugzeugabsturz auf ein Kernkraftwerk eine Katastrophe ausl?sen, die den GAU von Tschernobyl in den Schatten stellen w?rde.
AP
Besonders gef?hrdet: AKW Obrigheim
Berlin -Der BUND sieht sich in dieser Ansicht durch ein Gutachten der Gesellschaft f?r Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) best?tigt. Eine vom Umweltministerium erstellte Zusammenfassung dieser bisher nicht ver?ffentlichten Studie hat der BUND heute vorgelegt. Damit solle die ?ffentlichkeit ?ber die Risiken des Weiterbetriebs der Kernkraftwerke aufgekl?rt werden.
"Terroristen sind in der Lage, an jedem Atomstandort in Deutschland einen Super-GAU auszul?sen. Auf Grund der vielfach h?heren Bev?lkerungsdichte k?nnen seine Folgen weit katastrophaler sein als in Tschernobyl", sagte die BUND-Vorsitzende Angelika Zahrnt. Bundesregierung und Bundesl?nder w?ssten seit langem von dieser Gefahr und blieben dennoch eine Erkl?rung schuldig, welche Gegenma?nahmen sie ergreifen wollen.
Besonders gef?hrdet sind nach BUND-Angaben die neun ?lteren Atomanlagen Obrigheim, Stade, Biblis A und B, Brunsb?ttel, Isar 1, Philippsburg 1, Neckar 1 und Unterweser. Hier k?nnte schon der Absturz eines kleineren Verkehrsflugzeugs die Katastrophe ausl?sen. Beim Absturz eines gro?en Flugzeugs auf einen Atomreaktor k?nnen aber auch die zehn neueren AKW au?er Kontrolle geraten.
? SPIEGEL ONLINE 2004
Alle Rechte vorbehalten
Vervielf?ltigung nur mit Genehmigung der SPIEGELnet GmbH

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>> GREENSPAN WATCH...

Magic Test
The estimable Alan Greenspan has a tightrope to walk.
By Larry Kudlow
Out on the campaign trail, Gov. Howard Dean has criticized Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan for being "too political." Dean argues that Greenspan should be harping on Bush budget deficits and opposing tax cuts. Like so many Deanisms, this charge is whacky. Greenspan was in fact an obstacle to Bush's tax cut last May. At the time, the estimable Fed leader was worrying publicly about budget deficits, even though his emphasis has always been on spending restraint rather than higher taxes.
Dean's Fed attack may have legs, but for different reasons. The little-known fact is that Greenspan's job as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board is up for renewal this summer. While his seat as a board member doesn't expire until 2006, a decision on his reappointment is scheduled to be made in six months.
As events would have it, the Fed's most recent policy statement on interest rates removed the term-of-art phrase "considerable period" and inserted in its place the word "patient." Financial markets took this to mean a Fed rate hike has been brought a little nearer. Actually, futures markets are predicting a minor one-quarter-of-a-percentage-point increase in the fed funds policy rate sometime this summer. That's about when President Bush will decide on Greenspan's reappointment fate.
But Greenspan's reworking of the Fed's policy language may have been a brilliant move. Just the mere hint that a rate hike could come in mid-2004, instead of next year, caused the beleaguered U.S. dollar to appreciate. This in turn knocked the gold price down nearly $25 to around $400 -- a much more comfortable level, suggesting a diminished risk of higher future inflation. And while broad commodity indexes have had quite a run, these raw-material indicators are simply recouping prior losses and responding to huge industrial demands from the economic booms in China, the rest of Asia, and the U.S.
Yes, the stock market has been selling off since the announced change in Fed rhetoric. But after a continuous rally since early November, stocks were probably due for a minor correction anyway.
Keep in mind, part of the reason why the Fed is preparing us for an earlier rate rise is the positive economic story. Second-half real growth for 2003 has come in above 6 percent, with more of the same expected this year. Business profits are also coming in above expectations, productivity is gaining rapidly, and thanks to President Bush's last round of tax cuts, business investment spending is surging. Even exports are coming on strong.
President Bush told a White House meeting of economists that "the U.S. economy is strong and getting stronger," just as he urged Congress to make his tax cuts permanent and pledged to cut the deficit in half in five years. There's nothing on the Fed's plate that will disrupt this scenario -- certainly not a tiny rate hike this summer.
In political terms, however, the stock market looms as an important influence on the election. The risk of even a minor Fed rate hike a few months before the November tally might lead investors to assume that a string of interest-rate increases are coming. With 95 million shareholders in the U.S., and at least 164 million stock market accounts (up from only 20 million in 1988, according to the Investment Company Institute), there can be no doubt that the market's mood running up to November will have a big impact on the voting-booth decisions of investors.
In the 2000 presidential race, stocks slumped most of the year. The onset of the bear market substantially undermined the solid Clinton-Gore economic growth record, and helped elect George W. Bush. This time, any decisive market losses -- such as a 15 percent downward correction -- could jeopardize Bush's reelection shot, even though he is clearly the pro-investor candidate. How could he not be? His large economy-boosting tax-cuts on dividends, capital gains, upper-bracket income, and small owner-operated businesses are exactly the tax measures that John Kerry and the other Democrats intend to repeal.
So, this is the political tightrope that Alan Greenspan will have to walk. His renomination at the Fed as well as the election itself may be up for grabs.
And yet, with core inflation less than 1 percent, the economy on a tear, and job-creation set to explode, the question remains: Is any Fed tightening necessary this year? Or, if the Fed decides that a minor rate hike is necessary this summer, will they be able to sell it in a non-threatening way, so as to not upset the politically powerful stock market?
The so-called Greenspan Standard will be put on full public display during the political season. The Fed chairman's magic touch will be tested as never before.
-- Larry Kudlow, NRO's Economics Editor, is CEO of Kudlow & Co. and host with Jim Cramer of CNBC's Kudlow & Cramer.
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>> FBI WATCH...

The Technology Trade
By Konrad Trope, Esq.*
February 2004
A New Chapter in the War on Terrorism: The FBI Wants Expanded Wiretapping Authority
The debate over government interception of Internet communications has expanded to a new technology, namely Voice over Internet Protocol ("VoIP") transmissions. Indeed, representatives of the FBI's Electronic Surveillance Technology Section in Chantilly, Virginia have been meeting secretly with the Federal Communications Commission since July, 2003, exploring ways to provide the FBI with more regulatory authority to "wiretap" Internet communications, and in particular VoIP transmissions. [i] The FBI along with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration and the U.S. Department of Justice want VoIP providers declared as "telecommunications carrier[s]" under the Federal Communications Act of 1996 and the Communications Assistance for Law Enforcement Act of 1994 ("CALEA").[ii] These three federal law enforcement organizations declared that if left unregulated, VoIP would provide a means of communications whereby "terrorists, spies, and criminals ... [can] most likely evade lawful electronic surveillance." [iii]
Voice Over Internet Protocol allows analog voice signals to be digitized into packets of data, sent over a series of networks, and reassembled at the other end. [iv]. In other words, telephone calls that have traditionally, since the late 19th century, been made through Public Switching Technology Networks ("PSTN") are now initiated, transmitted and received through computer networks, and thereby avoid long distance telephone charges. The technology, introduced in 1995, stumbled along until recent improvements in the sound quality and transmission reliability have made "phone carriers ...practically tripping over each other to announce aggressive VoIP strategies aimed at both consumers and businesses." [v]
Today, VoIP transmissions constitute up to ten percent of all calls made in the United States, with estimates of up to 2.5 million U.S. subscribers.[vi] By 2006, it is anticipated that well over 7 million VoIP units will be in circulation.[vii]
The most popular reason that businesses and consumers give for switching to VoIP is cost savings. Flat rate service plans, including unlimited local and long distance calls range from $20-$40, which is 20-40% lower than service plans being offered by PSTN companies. The main reason for the cost savings is that VoIP transmissions are not regulated like regular telephone service. VoIP providers therefore do not have to pay the same taxes and access fees that are passed onto consumers. [viii]
A technological benefit of VoIP is more efficient use of the broadband cable, which currently carries half of all VoIP transmissions. Voice, data (e.g., faxes, e-mail, instant messaging), and video can all be transmitted simultaneously through broadband cable, record an outgoing message and leave it in their customers' voice mail inboxes with one click, instead of repeating the same message several times a day. Moreover VoIP transmissions can be recorded, labeled, indexed, stored, and retrieved when necessary. [ix] These technological benefits have made VoIP the new "target" of the Federal Government's War on Terrorism.
Under existing federal wiretapping laws, the FBI already has the ability to seek a court order to conduct surveillance of any broadband user through its DCS 1000 system, previously called Carnivore. [x] But federal law enforcement agencies worry that unless Internet service providers, and in particular VoIP providers, offer surveillance hubs based on common standards, lawbreakers can evade or, at the very least, complicate surveillance by using VoIP providers such as Vonage, Time Warner Cable, Net2Phone, 8X8, deltathree and Digital Voice. [xi]
The origins of this debate date back nine years, to when the FBI persuaded Congress to enact a controversial law called the Communications Assistance for Law Enforcement Act ("CALEA"). [xii] The 1994 legislation requires that telecommunications services rewire their networks to provide police with guaranteed access for wiretaps. The legislation also empowered the FCC to issues regulations defining what categories of companies were subject to the broad sweeping legislation.[xiii] So far only traditional PSTN (analog) companies and wireless phone services have been subject to CALEA.
The FBI now has taken the position that the combination of the federal wiretap laws, originally enacted in 1964, and amended numerous times since,[xiv] along with CALEA, give it the authority to wiretap DSL and other types of broadband services, including VoIP. [xv]
Critics are worried about privacy issues. Under CALEA, "telecommunications services" as defined under CALEA and the 1994 Federal Communications Act [xvi] are required to modify their equipment so that law enforcement officials can effectively "wiretap" both data and voice transmissions. [xvii] In particular, since VoIP represents the "blending" of data and real time voice transmissions, privacy advocates worry that VoIP "wiretapping" will lead to "dataveillance", where data such as location information will be routinely collected for surveillance, without any investigatory predicate.[xviii] Moreover, neither VoIP providers nor the FBI can explain what will be done to ensure that private parties do not engage in illegal monitoring of private citizens, gaining access to privileged information, confidential business/trade secrets, or even sensitive medical information.[xix]
Moreover, the FBI has said that if broadband providers cannot isolate specific VoIP calls to and from individual users, they must give police access to the "full pipe"--which, therefore, inevitably would include hundreds or thousands of customers who are not the target of the investigation.[xx] This technological short-coming of VoIP "wiretapping" would inevitably lead to over-inclusive sweeps of conversations and data transmissions that are not the "target" of any government probe.
Some companies like MetaSwitch and Cisco Systems, Inc. have already cooperated with the FBI's request for CALEA compliance to make their VoIP hardware products "surveillance friendly." These two companies have "developed backdoor technology in their VOIP products that enables the FBI to eavesdrop at will." [xxi] Yet segregating particular voice packets not the target of a search warrant still presents technological hurdles to many VoIP providers, leaving many VoIP transmissions subject to interception despite falling outside of the scope of the federal search warrant that authorized the interception.
On the other hand, not all Internet service providers see themselves as "adverse" to the interests of the FBI. EarthLink, for instance, wants CALEA and the Federal Wiretapping Statutes applied to VoIP calls. If VoIP calls escape being subjected to this expanded regulatory scheme, it would mean that VoIP stays "unregulated" as far as the FCC is concerned. Such de-regulation of Internet services, would allow the Baby Bells such as Verizon and BellSouth to raise the rates charged to ISP's, such as EarthLink, for access to the copper wire that runs to subscribers' homes and businesses. [xxii]
EarthLink, as an ISP provider has, therefore, admitted that it sees "the FBI as an ally of sorts," said David Baker, EarthLink's vice president for law and public policy. [xxiii]
The federal courts are split on this issue of expanding government power to regulate [and therefore intercept Internet transmissions], and in particular VoIP. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, for instance, in October, declared, to the delight of Internet Service Providers (ISP's) such as EarthLink, that the cable operators to the extent that their broadband services use the Internet, are telecommunications providers, making them subject to state and federal regulations, including FCC regulations. [xxiv] In the same month, a federal district judge in Minnesota issued an injunction against the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, barring it from seeking to impose tariffs on VoIP provider Vonage. [xxv] Consequently, the Minnesota Federal District Court decision allows Vonage to escape being subjected to the FBI's request to the FCC to expand the reach of CALEA. [xxvi]
CONCLUSION
Everything is pointing to the exponential growth of VoIP use. VoIP usage might even exceed the prediction that by 2007, seventy-five percent of all voice traffic will travel over the Internet. Thus, it appears that the FBI's request for expansion of its "wiretapping" authority versus and the FCC Chairman Michael Powell's stated desire to further unleash the Internet, making it free from government regulation are set on a collision course.
The same statutes that allow for wiretapping also authorize other government activity such as taxation of the Internet and the mandating of services such as 911, guaranteed access, remote area service, and service for the hearing impaired. On the other hand, if the Internet and in particular VoIP is ultimately declared to be free from the string of regulations and tariffs that surround traditional PSTN providers, then government officials seeking broader "wiretapping" authority may be stymied in their efforts to intercept VoIP transmissions and neutralize this new form of a national security threat.

* Konrad Trope is a cyberspace and intellectual property attorney with a national practice, based in Los Angeles. His practice focuses on cyberspace, intellectual property and entertainment litigation, transactions, and regulatory counseling. He is a member of the ABA Cyberspace Committee and a member of the California State Bar Cyberspace Committee. He can be reached at ktrope@earthlink.net .

Endnotes:
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[i] See 18 U.S.C. ?? 2510, 2511, 2518; Declan McCullagh, FBI targets Net phoning, CNET News.com, July 29, 2003 at http://news.com.com/2100-1028_3-5056424.html?tag=mainstry ; Joint Comments of U.S. Department of Justice, U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, December 15, 2003, submitted to December 1, 2003 Federal Communications Commission VoIP Forum at http://ww.fcc.gov/voip/materials-submit.html.031215VOIPForum .
[ii] See 47 U.S.C. ??153, 1000 et. seq.; Joint Comments of U.S. Department of Justice, U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, December 15, 2003, submitted to December 1, 2003 Federal Communications Commission VoIP Forum at http://ww.fcc.gov/voip/materials-submit.html.031215VOIPForum; LightReading.com, FBI Protests VoIP Approach, January 9, 2004 at http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?site=lightreading&doc_id=45695 .
[iii] Joint Comments of U.S. Department of Justice, U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, December 15, 2003, submitted to December 1, 2003 Federal Communications Commission VoIP Forum at http://ww.fcc.gov/voip/materials-submit.html.031215VOIPForum.
[iv] Jeff Tyson, How IP Telephony Works, howstuff works.com, at http://computer.howstuffworks.com/ip-telephony1.htm , telephony2.htm, telephony3.htm, and telephony4.htm, (last visited on December 4, 2003; Voice Over Internet Protocol, International Engineering Consortium Online Tutorial, at http://www.iec.org/online/tutorials/int_tele/ (last visited Nov. 16, 2003).
[v] Knowledge@Wharton, Behind VoIP's renaissance, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, January 17, 2004.
[vi] Ben Charney, Free ride over for VoIP, CNET New.com, August 25, 2003 at http://news.com.com/2100-1037-5067465.html?tag=n1 .
[vii] Frost & Sullivan, VoIP Analysis, October 16, 2003, VoIPWatch.com at http://www.voipwatch.com/article.php3?sid=101 .
[viii] Michael Powell, Chairman Federal Communications Commission, The Age of Person Communications: Power to the People", January 14, 2004 Speech to the National Press Club, Washington, D.C.; Charles M. Davidson, Florida Public Service Commission, VoIP, FCC Forum--December 1, 2003 at http://www.fcc.gov/voip/presentations/davidson.ppt ; Knowledge@Wharton, Behind VoIP's renaissance, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, January 17, 2004
[ix] The Siemon Company, White Paper: Video over IP, www.siemon.com , August 2003; Cisco Systems, Inc., White Paper: The Strategic and Financial Justification for IP Communications, 2002.
[x] Declan McCullagh, FBI targets Net phoning, CNET News.com, July 29, 2003 at http://news.com.com/2100-1028_3-5056424.html?tag=mainstry;
[xi] Id.; see also Joint Comments of U.S. Department of Justice, U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, December 15, 2003, submitted to December 1, 2003 Federal Communications Commission VoIP Forum at http://ww.fcc.gov/voip/materials-submit.html.031215VOIPForum
[xii] See 47 U.S.C. ??1000, et. seq.
[xiii] Id.
[xiv] See 18 U.S.C. ??2510, et. seq.
[xv] Joint Comments of U.S. Department of Justice, U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, December 15, 2003, submitted to December 1, 2003 Federal Communications Commission VoIP Forum at http://ww.fcc.gov/voip/materials-submit.html.031215VOIPForum
[xvi] 47 U.S.C. ?? 153, 1000 et. seq
[xvii] Id.
[xviii] Marc Rotenberg, Electronic Privacy Information Center Comments on VoIP, December 15, 2003 submitted to December 1, 2003 Federal Communications Commission VoIP Forum at http://www.fcc.gov/voip/comments/EPIC.txt
[xix] Id.
[xx] Declan McCullagh, FBI targets Net phoning, CNET News.com, July 29, 2003 at http://news.com.com/2100-1028_3-5056424.html?tag=mainstry; see also Joint Comments of U.S. Department of Justice, U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, December 15, 2003, submitted to December 1, 2003 Federal Communications Commission VoIP Forum at http://ww.fcc.gov/voip/materials-submit.html.031215VOIPForum
[xxi] LightReading.com, FBI Protests VoIP Approach, January 9, 2004 at http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?site=lightreading&doc_id=45695
[xxii] See 47 U.S.C. ??251(c)(3) &(4)(A); Declan McCullagh, FBI targets Net phoning, CNET News.com, July 29, 2003 at http://news.com.com/2100-1028_3-5056424.html?tag=mainstry
[xxiii] Declan McCullagh, FBI targets Net phoning, CNET News.com, July 29, 2003 at http://news.com.com/2100-1028_3-5056424.html?tag=mainstry
[xxiv] Brand X Internet Services, et. al. v. FCC, 345 F3d 1120 (9th Cir. 2003)
[xxv] Vonage Holdings Corp. v Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, et. al., 290 F. Supp. 2d 993 (D. Minn. 2003)
[xxvi] Marc Rotenberg, Electronic Privacy Information Center Comments on VoIP, December 15, 2003 submitted to December 1, 2003 Federal Communications Commission VoIP Forum at http://www.fcc.gov/voip/comments/EPIC.txt

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>> DEMS WATCH...

Issues of Civil Justice and Tort Reform:
What Role Will They Play in the Democratic Primaries?
By ANTHONY J. SEBOK
tsebok@findlaw.com
----
Monday, Jan. 26, 2004
The early stages of the Democratic presidential primary race have been marked by intense media scrutiny of the personalities of the candidates. Still, it is not too early to begin thinking about where they stand on the issues that matter to the voters and the party that the candidates seek to represent.
On certain "big" issues, such as the war in Iraq and the economy, it is easy to find out what the candidates think, although sometimes it is more difficult to figure out whether they actually disagree with each other. In this column, I will take a look at an issue that does not often get a lot of attention: civil justice and tort reform.
Tort reform may not be a "hot button" issue for many voters in New Hampshire or South Carolina. But it is a very important issue for some of the largest contributors to both parties.
The Democratic Party, especially, has become increasingly more dependent on contributions from members of the plaintiffs' bar. In fact, in my opinion, trial lawyers, in a sense, play the same role in the Democratic Party that the National Rifle Association plays in the Republican Party: The role of the eight hundred pound gorilla no one dares to disobey Even if a Democrat disagreed with the views of the American Trial Lawyers Association (ATLA), I think it would be very difficult for him or her to vote against its wishes.
Because tort reform is not an issue that wins primaries, the candidates have said very little on the subject so far. Still, a lot can be gleaned from their websites and, more importantly, their past statements and actions.
I am going to focus on the major four candidates who are currently leading in New Hampshire; I suspect that some or all of them will be the focus of the primaries until a winner emerges, or is selected in Boston.

Howard Dean's Views on Tort Reform
I begin with Howard Dean because he seems, at first glance, to be the candidate who, for personal reasons, would be ATLA's least favorite candidate. After all, he is a doctor married to a doctor. Last year doctors marched in front of state houses and went on strike in many states demanding tort reform and protection from trial lawyers.
Furthermore, as the website Overlawyered has pointed out, in 1988 then-Lieutenant Governor Dean published a letter in the New York Times that seemed to imply that he would support limitations of tort damages at both the state and federal level.
Presidential candidate Dean has moderated his views, however. The question is whether his current positions fall within the Democratic Party's conventional views on tort reform.
Fortunately, Dean's campaign website is unusual in that it has a section devoted to the candidate's position on medical malpractice. Dean notes that both patients and doctors are ill-served by the current liability system. Dean believes that the states should "discourage frivolous lawsuits while still holding the health care system accountable." This formula seems appealing but vague: The problem is that these two ideals often conflict in practice.
So what concrete state-levels reforms does Dean endorse? On his website, he mentions only "non-binding pre-litigation review" of malpractice suits by expert panels, and the use of arbitration panels as a last resort before litigation. However, these reforms have been adopted by many states already, and, unfortunately, while they are excellent ideas, they do not seem to have effectively addressed the concerns of physicians and tort reformers.
What about on the federal level? Dean says that he opposes the Republican federal medical malpractice reform bill, which would cap damages throughout the nation. Dr. Dean is to be applauded for having broken ranks with the AMA on this issue, although it is hard to tell whether his stand is principled or driven by a realistic understanding of who hold the pursestrings in his party.
In any event, Dean does endorse one federal reform that has been supported by the AMA. He calls for the passage of the Patient Safety and Quality Act, which was co-sponsored by Vermont's maverick ex-Republican Senator Jim Jeffords. This bill tries to promote patient safety by allowing doctors and hospitals to report medical "adverse events" to specially-designated organizations in confidence. The law is based on recent theoretical work by public health specialists who believe that fear of litigation is inhibiting the free flow of information that could be used to review and improve medical procedures.
While I think that the Patient Safety and Quality Act sounds like a good idea, it should come as no surprise that consumer groups, who are traditionally skeptical of any thing that might inhibit litigation, are suspicious of the act. Consumer Union, for example, has said that the bill "would make it nearly impossible for consumers to compare the quality of care provided by doctors and hospitals, as well as keep hospital infection rates from becoming public."
Thus, in this one area, Dr. Dean may have trumped the judgment of Candidate Dean -- alienating numerous consumers and patients, in order to aid doctors and the progress of medicine.

John Edwards's Views on Tort Reform
If Howard Dean might have appeared to be ATLA's least favorite candidate, John Edwards appears to be its poster child. John Edwards was, until he entered the Senate a few years ago, one of America's most successful trial attorneys. He made his fortune, in part, on trying very large medical malpractice suits.
John Edwards is to be credited for using his career as a plaintiffs' attorney as a device to build and bridge between liberalism and the individualism that appears to have led critical voters (especially Southern males) to vote Republican. This view has become very clear both from Edwards' book published last fall, Four Trials and an essay he published in Newsweek in response to their cover story criticizing the tort system. (I discussed the original article in a recent column.)
In his book and in his Newsweek essay, Edwards describes himself as a champion of the "old-fashioned" values of personal responsibility and just deserts. In his view, the doctors and corporations he sued "deserved" to be punished no more and no less than Willie Horton -- the famous parolee used by the Republicans to paint the Democrats as "soft on crime" -- did.
Furthermore, while Edwards is a vociferous critic of tort reform, he is willing to admit that the medical malpractice system has been abused by his fellow lawyers. On his campaign website he suggests, like Dean, that before a medical malpractice suit can be filed, a lawyer should be required to get an expert physician to certify that there may be a valid medical complaint. As I noted above, however, this type of expert-based reform is pretty weak stuff.
But then Edwards goes on to make a more daring suggestion. He suggests that a lawyer who brings three frivolous lawsuits should be forbidden from bringing another one for ten years. Constitutionally, this reform would probably have to be enacted on the state level -- outside of the President's bailiwick. Nonetheless (or, perhaps, for this reason), it's very smart of Edwards to support it..
The truly brilliant part of Edwards's proposal, is how it once again uses criminal justice rhetoric associated with the Republican Party. At the end of his proposal on sanctioning lawyers, Edwards says, "in other words, three strikes and you're out."
Later on, Edwards says the same thing about sanctioning doctors who have been proven to have committed malpractice. I have no idea whether Edwards really wants to adopt the "three strikes model" for professional malpractice, but the net effect of this language is to make it harder for his opponents to paint Edwards as a knee-jerk defender of the tort system.

John Kerry's Views on Tort Reform
John Kerry has been in the Senate longer than any of the other leading candidates, and so, along with Joe Lieberman, he has had the most opportunities to actually respond to national tort reform efforts. However, Kerry seems to have stayed on the sidelines as much as possible with regard to questions of civil justice.
Kerry voted for the 1995 Private Securities Litigation Reform Act, a Clinton-era limitation on the right to sue for federal securities fraud. The Act was passed in part because in the mid-90's, the Democratic Party was sensitive to the concerns of a new group of wealthy funders--Internet entrepreneurs who thought the class action plaintiffs' bar was unfairly targeting Silicon Valley.
Later, Kerry voted against the Common Sense Product Liability Reform Act of 1996. But that was unexceptional: Almost all of the Democratic Party (Lieberman excepted) opposed the Act.
Finally, and curiously, Kerry was absent for the vote to end the Democrats' filibuster of the Class Action Fairness Act, a major recent tort reform effort.
Kerry's website says nothing specifically about tort reform. But he does, in an oblique way, suggest that he wants to see more federal civil litigation in one area--RICO, the Racketeering-Influenced Corrupt Organizations Act. (RICO was enacted to address organized crime, but by its language may reach a number of different kinds of patterns of conduct involving criminal activity.) Kerry, who was once a prosecutor, suggests that one step he would take as president is to propose that RICO be expanded so that "investors who have lost money due to late-trading schemes" can sue in federal court to recover their losses.
Obviously, Kerry's view on RICO, in particular, does not tell us much, if anything, about his true feelings about civil litigation in general. What this view does tells us, though, is that Kerry understands that Americans are quite angry about corporate fraud.

Wesley Clark's Views on Tort Reform
For obvious reasons, Wesley Clark has had the least opportunity of all the other candidates to experience the civil justice system firsthand. Thus, it is very hard to predict from his background and past actions what, if anything, he thinks about the civil justice system.
Clark's website does, however, have a section devoted to civil justice. It reports that Clark opposes the major recent Republican tort reform efforts to cap medical malpractice awards and to shift class actions from the state to the federal courts.
The site suggests that Clark, or whoever is advising him, understands what is at stake in debates over tort reform. It notes that President Bush described the medical malpractice system as a lottery where plaintiffs enter hoping that they hold "winning tickets" -- and strongly counters this view of our system. As Clark points out, it is not true -- as Bush suggests -- that patients who sue and win are not really suffering, and thus feel like lottery winners when they get compensated. More likely, the patients breathe a sigh of relief that the jury recognized that they were truly injured, and compensated them accordingly.
Clark is also right to the extent that he suggests that if our medical malpractice system does need to be reformed, it is because many of the injuries suffered by plaintiffs were not caused by anyone's carelessness -- and thus, it is unfair for corporations to pay the bill for these injuries. (Yet on the other hand, it would be tragic if plaintiffs were left uncompensated because they lacked health or disability insurance.)
Overview of the Candidates: Democrats Who See Some Need for Tort Reform
This brief review of the four leading candidates tells us as much about the current state of debate over tort reform in the United States, as it does about the differences between the candidates.
This composite picture of the Democratic Party shows that the party is not unaware of the need to reform parts of the civil justice system. Even the positions taken by Dean and Edwards--though the two are members of professions that view each other as natural enemies--are nuanced and reasonable, and not so wildly dissimilar.
The message I take from the candidates positions, then, is an optimistic one: If the special interests that control the Democratic Party can be kept at bay, it is possible that the party may be able to develop a true "common sense" approach to tort reform.

Anthony J. Sebok, a FindLaw columnist, is a Professor of Law at Brooklyn Law School, where he teaches Torts, among other subjects. His previous columns on tort law can be found in the archive of his columns on this site.

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Monday, 2 February 2004

Iraq's Oil Mess

"Reconstructing Iraq's oil industry the right way is essential to the ongoing reconstruction of the country. Unfortunately, it might not be possible."

Fall 2003
by Irwin Stelzer
"We're dealing with a country that can really finance its own reconstruction, and relatively soon," Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz assured Congress shortly after the war to oust Saddam Hussein was launched. That was then, this is now. Wolfowitz seems to have been off by a few hundred billion dollars.
The opponents of the war--with what National Interest editor John O'Sullivan calls their "sleeping radical instincts and . . . inverted patriotism" aroused--predicted a long and bloody battle; they were wrong. The advocates of regime change foresaw garland-bearing welcoming committees and an Iraq so awash in oil and so ripe for Western-style democracy that the cost to the United States of Iraq's reconstruction would be minimal; they, too, were wrong. The former are, predictably, unapologetic. The latter are faced with the costly proposition that he who would call the tune must pay the piper--or share tune-calling authority with other potential paymasters.
The expense of reconstruction will be exacerbated by ongoing acts of sabotage and efforts to stop them. A recent survey by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers of 700 miles of wire in Iraq found 623 destroyed transmission towers, compared with just 20 after the war (Wall Street Journal, September 5, 2003). Even under the most optimistic assumptions about our ability to secure the nation's oil field equipment, pipelines, ports, and transmission grid--and optimistic assumptions are the sp?cialit? du maison of the Pentagon--Iraq cannot possibly export enough oil in the foreseeable future to cover the costs of reconstructing its clapped-out physical and government infrastructures, never mind paying off whatever portion of its massive debt falls outside the category known as "odious debts" (those taken on by despots merely to strengthen the regime and repress the population).
There is worse, much worse. Solving current security problems is only one essential if the Bush administration is to achieve its long-term goal of creating a democratic, market-oriented government that will be a model for other Middle Eastern countries. Equally and arguably even more important is the question of just what sort of oil industry we plan to bequeath to the new Iraqi government; for if we know one thing about countries that rely on oil revenues for the great bulk of their incomes and wealth, it is that government control of a preponderant portion of a nation's gross domestic product (GDP) distorts economic activity, creates incentives for the entrepreneurial classes to seek their fortunes by catering to government bureaucrats rather than to consumers, provides governments with the ability to purchase the tools necessary to repress their peoples and to buy off terrorists by funding their activities in other countries, and results in the sort of society and government we now see in Saudi Arabia--unless, of course, we are among those blinded by the administration's penchant for shielding the Saudi royal family from criticism.
Unsafe for Democracy
As things now seem to be shaping up, any hope for major changes in the structure of Iraq's oil industry has become the most important victim. Pentagon sources say that all energy, physical and intellectual, is being absorbed by the current attempt to gain control of the country, at the expense of all other policy chores. When all is said and done, Iraq will have a state-owned-and-operated monopoly oil industry that is a dutiful member of the OPEC cartel, providing a flow of funds to a central government that we will find uncongenial. Indeed, even if we do find the energy to attempt to plant the seeds of a free-market economy of the sort that our designated administrator, Paul Bremer, originally had in mind, it is unlikely that those seeds will flower in Iraq's desert soil and hostile climate--witness the rallying of Iraq's business class around the protectionist banner. (One leading Iraqi businessman says that in the absence of protection from foreign competition, "local companies will be completely smashed" [Wall Street Journal, June 25, 2003], a not-unreasonable assumption given the lack of investment in these companies for several decades, and their forced operation in a non-market economy.)
Start with the fact that there is nothing in the history of the region or of the Arab states to suggest that democracy can take root in Iraq. Of twenty-two Arab states, not one has an elected government. As conservative columnist George Will puts it, it is not clear that "national cultures . . . are infinitely malleable under the touch of enlightened reformers." Even if democracy in some form can be imposed on Iraq, only a truly (wildly?) optimistic analyst can believe that it will result in anything approximating Americans' notions of a liberal society, replete with institutions erected to shield the citizen from an overweening state. If you doubt the possibility that our plans to shape Iraq's future--plans based on the premises that we have the knowledge and will have the power to do that--will prove to be nothing more than an imperial conceit, treat yourself to a combination of Bernard Lewis (The Crisis of Islam: Holy War and Unholy Terror, London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 2003) and Fareed Zakaria (The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad, New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2003). Or consider whether the outcome of a free election in Saudi Arabia is more likely to confer power on one of the enlightened young Arab democrats whom New York Times columnist Tom Friedman is so fond of interviewing, or on Osama bin Laden or one of his acolytes.
While pondering that question, consider the statement of Hussein Jassem Ijbara, a former general in the Iraqi Republican Guard, now installed by American forces as governor of Salahadin province, and ensconced in what has been described by observers as "a well-appointed office in the government palace in Tikrit" (Financial Times, June 24, 2003). "In my opinion," says the new governor, "they needed someone strong who could run Salahadin province in the place of Saddam Hussein. . . . We have a system now very much like they have in the United States. Our province is like an American state. I have all the power." So much for the new Iraqi leaders' understanding of the American-style democratic government that our policymakers have in mind not only for Iraq but for the entire Middle East.
We are already witnessing the execution of liquor merchants, the censoring of films, and the unwilling use of the hijabe head covering by frightened women who felt no need to cover up when Saddam was in power, perhaps foretelling the emergence of what columnist Nicholas Kristoff calls "Iran Lite." (See "Cover Your Hair," New York Times, June 24, 2003. Kristoff also quotes a leader of a Shiite fundamentalist party that is winning support as saying, "Democracy means choosing what people want, not what the West wants.") And reports from Iraq suggest that after the devastation of the 1991 war, which destroyed power plants and other infrastructure facilities, the country was up and running within forty days, in contrast with the current situation, in which the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) was unable until recently to restore services to prewar levels despite inheriting an infrastructure far less war-damaged than the one we left to Saddam after the first Gulf war. (See the report by Charles Clover in the Financial Times, June 25, 2003.)
Sure, there are large parts of the country in which our pacification and reconstruction efforts are bearing fruit. But only those blinded by hatred of the one-sidedly gloomy reports of the antiwar, I-told-you-so faction would argue that we are succeeding at anything approaching the pace we had anticipated when occupying Iraq. Or even that we have figured out how to succeed. Our early plan to assign an adviser to each of the twenty-odd newly appointed Iraqi ministers reflects an arrogance not seen since the last Soviet Gosplanner hung up his computer (more likely, his slide rule).
Our plan is to have each ministry, under the guidance of an American adviser, draw up plans that accurately predict revenues, costs, tax receipts, and the like, while other technocrats set wages, prices, and the right exchange rate for the new currency; decide which debts should be repaid and which repudiated; and perform other chores ordinarily left to the market. Note that we are not content to talk about getting things running at pre-war levels, but are aiming to produce far higher levels of services and prosperity, levels never before seen in Iraq.
Crude Oil Realities
The plans for the oil ministry are a case in point. Ibrahim Mohammed Bahr al-Uloum, the minister appointed by the Governing Council to run the oil industry, is a petroleum engineer, but his main qualification seems to be his choice of father--a leading Shiite cleric who sits on the Council when not temporarily suspending his membership to protest some aspect of U.S. policy or performance. Mr. Bahr al-Uloum favors privatization of downstream facilities such as refineries, but is less certain that the nation's 112 billion barrels of proven reserves, the world's largest with the exception of Saudia Arabia's, should pass from state control. Production-sharing agreements with American and European countries might be countenanced, and Arab neighbors will be asked to help in the rehabilitation of existing fields, but any decision for complete privatization must, the new minister says, await the election of a new government, with the prospects for a "yes" vote on privatization somewhat dimmed by a culture described by the new minister as dominated by the fact that "people lived for the last thirty to forty years with this idea of nationalism" (Financial Times, September 5, 2003), suggesting that a bit of humility about our prospects for reorganizing Iraq's oil industry along private, competitive lines might be in order.
Iraq is believed to be capable of producing about 1.8 million barrels per day at present, but is probably producing less than that. A few hundred thousand barrels are used for oil field operations, and another 500,000 barrels are needed for domestic consumption--to produce fuel for power plants, and to make gasoline, diesel, and kerosene for domestic use. In addition, the Kurds are siphoning off significant quantities. Repeated sabotage of the main northern pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan makes it impossible to export all of what is produced. Latest figures suggest that exports are running at something like 645,000 barrels per day, far below both prewar levels and the occupying powers' forecasts. In sum, oil revenues won't come close to meeting the costs of occupation and reconstruction, even when exports rise substantially.
But let's assume that, like my fellow economists, I am so accustomed to practicing my "dismal science" that I have difficulty seeing the bright side of things. And let's assume further that it is indeed within our power to impose a durable new order on Iraq's oil industry, and that the free-market plans set out by Paul Bremer can indeed be implemented. And just to keep things on the bright side, let's assume that Iraq can soon again become an important exporter. The principles to follow if we are to have any hope of achieving our goals are straightforward.
First: No return to the prewar structure. We know that the typical system of state ownership is a failure in every particular. In the end, it impoverishes the citizens (if that is the right word) of the producing country; witness the two-thirds decline in per capita income in Saudi Arabia in the past decade. This is a consequence of
? an inflated currency valuation that makes the producing country unable to compete in world markets as anything but a seller of oil;
? the belief that wealth springs from the ground, no work needed, which leads a native population, already ill-educated to function in the modern world, to refuse to work and instead to rely on immigrants to do not only the dirty work but all the work;
? the corruption incident to the huge revenues flowing to a ruling elite, a generally unsavory crowd that uses a small portion of the oil money to bribe the masses into lethargy with free telephone service and a few other amenities, and most of the rest to support a life of luxury unimaginable even in the affluent West, with a little left over to support the terrorist organization du jour so as to fuel the fires of the Israeli-Palestinian war and focus local discontent on Israel rather than on the ruling regime.
That describes Saudi Arabia as it is today, and Iraq as it was before the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and likely will be again if the oil industry is not restructured.
Second: Any reform must have a good chance of surviving the departure of the occupying forces. If we optimistically assume that we have the nous and power to change the way Iraq's oil wealth is used, the new order we impose must be irreversible. We may be in Iraq longer than we had hoped, and certainly longer than we had planned, but we won't be there forever. So we must consider the possibility that a post-CPA Iraqi regime will want to turn the clock back to the good old days of palaces for the few and poverty for the many.
In my view, that eliminates as a possibility any scheme that involves setting up some sort of fund to be used in the interests of the Iraqi people. A post-CPA regime could very easily redirect to itself and its Swiss bank accounts, or its military, or its weapons program, the funds flowing into any pot intended to be used for education, health, and other "good" purposes.
In short, Iraq ain't Alaska, and not only because of differences in climate. In Alaska, oil royalties go into a fund that is distributed directly to the state's citizens, for them to spend as they see fit, to the consternation of Alaska's legislators, who repeatedly fail in their attempts to have the money flow into the state's coffers for redistribution as the politicians and bureaucrats see fit.
The need for a scheme that would survive the departure of American and coalition forces also rules out having the occupying authorities turn ownership of Iraq's oil reserves over to foreign, and especially American, oil companies. No matter how transparent any bidding procedure, no matter how inflated the price paid to Iraq for rights to its reserves, those contracts will be seen as negotiated between an American administrator and American oil companies. They could not possibly survive the departure of our soldiers.
Third: Durable change can come only if we vest ownership in Iraq's oil wealth directly in the people. Shares in the nation's oil companies--and it would be well to have several companies--can be distributed to all Iraqis, perhaps with the proviso that they are not immediately tradable, so as to prevent those who are now very wealthy from extracting unreasonable terms from desperately needy sellers who fared poorly under the old regime. This is not the place to develop all of the details of this plan, even were I competent to do so. That chore is best left to the economist Hernando de Soto and others who specialize in this area. All we need know at this point is that a new Iraqi government, no matter how much it might want to seize control of the nation's oil income, would have a more difficult time confiscating or nationalizing shares held by Iraqis than it would recapturing ownership rights held by American and other foreign oil companies.
Back to OPEC?
Which leaves the knotty question of OPEC. One of our hopes was that Iraq, eager for current revenue, might remain outside the embrace of the oil cartel, which has invited it back into the fold, an invitation Mr. Bahr al-Uloum has said he will accept. There is still a possibility--increasingly remote--that Iraqis will apply a higher discount rate to future revenue flows than, say, Saudi Arabia, and produce all the oil that Iraq's fields can pump out without further damaging the nation's fields. But even if we decide to embrace this rosy scenario, we can't ignore the fact that, at least for the foreseeable future, the Saudis and their partners are cutting back their own output to make room in the market for such oil as Iraq is capable of producing, leaving the volume of oil reaching world markets unchanged--unless some major new region comes on line more rapidly than it is now reasonable to anticipate. (My Hudson Institute colleague, Max Singer, believes that the production of Canada's ample reserves of shale oil is increasingly economic and is a viable long-run alternative to Saudi oil. See his "Saudi Arabia's Overrated Oil Weapon," The Weekly Standard, August 18, 2003.)
Of course, we do not live only for cheap oil, although competitive prices would have the same effect as an additional tax cut and would entail none of the long-term negative consequences of the current plunge into long-term federal budget deficits. So a restructured Iraqi oil industry that contributed to the dilution of the power of the central government by depriving it of first call on the industry's oil revenues would be good news not only for Iraqis but also for those of us hoping that a less troublesome Iraq, and a possible model for other countries in the region, will be the long-term payoff for our current pain and that the new Iraqi government will decide not to play ball with the oil cartel.
But regardless of whether it chooses to operate within or outside of OPEC, it is unlikely--not impossible, but unlikely--that Iraq will become an important enough exporter in the next few years to fund its reconstruction. The country's industry must first be made safe from sabotage, and billions must be invested to upgrade old fields that have suffered from underinvestment and to find new reserves.
Which brings us back to where we started. If America is willing to pay the piper to the tune of, say, 1 percent of its GDP, it can continue to call the tune and hope that my pessimistic view of our chances of converting Iraq and its Middle Eastern neighbors into freedom-loving, tolerant, and largely capitalist nations is simply wrong. If not, we must make the trade-off of further lowering the cost in U.S. blood and treasure by sharing authority with France and "donor" countries that do not share our goals--which will reduce the probability of success below even its low current level.
Whatever else we do, we should remember Kuwait, the country we saved from Saddam and has since refused to allow American companies to participate in its oil industry. Like Kuwait, Iraq's future behavior is unlikely to be informed by any sense of gratitude.
"What soon grows old? Gratitude." So said Aristotle. Therein lurks a lesson for American policymakers who are relying on just that virtue as they attempt to reconstruct Iraq, and who continue to rely on the OPEC countries we saved from Saddam in 1991 to provide an uninterrupted flow of competitively priced crude oil. The French, saved by us more than once from becoming German-speakers, and the Germans, saved by us from becoming Russian-Speakers, are living proof of the proposition that expectations of gratitude have no place in the development of foreign policy.


Irwin Stelzer is a Senior Fellow and Director of Economic Policy Studies for the Hudson Institute. He is also the U.S. economist and political columnist for The Sunday Times (London) and The Courier Mail (Australia), a columnist for The New York Post, and an honorary fellow of the Centre for Socio-Legal Studies for Wolfson College at Oxford University. He is the founder and former president of National Economic Research Associates and a consultant to several U.S. and United Kingdom industries on a variety of commercial and policy issues. He has a doctorate in economics from Cornell University and has taught at institutions such as Cornell, the University of Connecticut, New York University, and Nuffield College, Oxford.
To respond to this article, please send an email to amoutlook@hudson.org


CHINESE CITIZENS' RIGHTS ACTIVIST APPEALS WEB SITE CLOSURE
2004-01-30
The founder of a Chinese Web site set up to advise ordinary people of their legal rights has lodged an appeal with a Beijing court, renewing his battle to reverse the government's closure of his site, RFA's Mandarin service reports.
"This afternoon, my attorney officially submitted the appeal to the First Intermediate Peopls's Court of Beijing," Web site founder Li Jian told RFA on Jan.29. "The court agreed to deliberate on the case, and we paid the legal fee. This means that our lawsuit is reactivated again."
Li said the lawsuit against the Beijing municipal government's Telecommunications Management Bureau had only one aim--to get his Web site up and running again. He argues that the decision to pull the plug on his site violates Chinese law, because no regulations exist yet governing sites run by private individuals.
"I got hold of a faxed copy of the bureau's decision through a merchant who provided our Web servers," Li said. "In that document, it says the Beijing Telecommunications Management Bureau reached the decision, which was based on an internal memo issued by the Ministry of Information Industry."
So Li went to visit the Ministry, where he was told that they had instructed the municipal regulators to deal with the matter "according to the law." The trouble is, according to Li, that no relevant law yet exists.
"They don't have specific laws and regulations on which to base their administrative actions. That's why it's illegal to shut down my Web site because they don't have any laws regulating individual Web sites. They didn't follow any legal procedures," he said.
Li is also hoping that this case will highlight the very issues that led him to set up the site in the first place.
"China is moving more and more towards becoming a society ruled by law, and we all have seen law playing a greater and greater role. So through this channel, I'm hoping that the citizens' rights protection Web site will become a legally recognized site in China," he said.
China has kept a tight hold on Internet use by its citizens, for fear that its critics could organize themselves into an effective opposition and disseminate their views to China's fast-growing population of cyber-surfers. While the government is keen to promote the rule of law in theory, the idea of citizens protecting their rights via the Internet is extremely sensitive.
Government filters block access to Web sites abroad run by dissidents, human rights groups, and some news organizations. The Chinese authorities are thought to have detained more than 30 people since the Internet boom began in the late 1990s, often for simply expressing pro-democratic leanings in online postings and articles.#####
Copyright ? 2001-2004 Radio Free Asia. All Rights Reserved.


IN SMUGGLED LETTER, SOUTH KOREAN IN CHINESE JAIL REPORTS SUFFERING
2004-02-02
'I am suffering in prison not for doing evil but for doing good'
A South Korean man currently serving a five-year sentence in a Chinese prison for helping defectors from North Korea has smuggled a heart-rending letter to his family, cut painstakingly from the pages of a prison Bible, RFA's Korean service reports.
"Someone mailed me a letter from my husband," the man's wife, Bong-soon Kim, told RFA. "I think this person secretly received it from my husband in the prison... He cut out letters that he needed from the Bible and pasted them onto the paper one by one."
Kim said her husband, Young-hoon Choi, was arrested by Chinese police along with a photographer, Jae-hyun Seok, for helping North Korean defectors in the northern Chinese port city of Yantai, which lies on the Bohai Bay and Yellow Sea, across from the Korean Peninsula.
She said she had been allowed to visit Choi during his trial, when he looked unhealthy. "I think they took the glasses away to prevent accidents. He has very poor eyesight," she told reporter Won-hee Lee. "As you know, letters in the Bible are quite small. It is painful to think that he had to cut out every single letter and pasted them onto a paper without even glue to send his heart to us."
In the letter, Choi called on his family to band together to support each other in his absence. "As you know, I am suffering in prison not for doing evil but for doing good. So I hope that you will not be ashamed of your father for being in prison," he wrote.
"I am spending time every day thinking of you and your mother and serving God."
Kim said Choi had begun to get involved with the troubles of North Korean defectors during his frequent business trips to China. "I think during that time, he saw people in trouble and thought about ways to help them and started participating in helping them. I am hoping for an early release but I still haven?t heard anything," she said.
She said repeated appeals to the South Korean government to work for Choi's early release had met with reassurances, but no result so far. "The government tells me not to worry, saying that it is continuously requesting China for an early release but no progress has been made. So as his family we are having a very hard time," Kim said.
She called on the South Korean government to work harder to secure Choi's release, adding that her two daughters, aged 16 and 11, were still unable to cope with their father's absence.
"I can't talk about their dad because they cry whenever I talk about him. I think my daughter?s feelings toward her dad became more intense when the holiday season came around and the weather became cold... One day I came home from work and found out that she posted her writing on the Web site."
Choi's letter said: "I would like to tell my beloved wife that I love her truly and faithfully. I also want to say that I am sorry and grateful. To you, I am a sinner."
"Listen my children. During my absence, respect my beloved wife, your mother. And I hope that you, Sun-hee and Soo-jee, will love each other and make your mother happy every day by being earnest, diligent, and cheerful good daughters," the letter said.
Kim said Choi had recently been transferred to a prison in Yantai, along with Jae-hyun Seok. "I guess my husband and Mr. Jae-hyun Seok cross each other?s path every now and then. And now he is allowed to use writing tools," she added. ###


CAN CHINA AFFORD TO FUEL ITS ECONOMIC GROWTH?
2004-01-29
Booming demand squeezes global oil stocks, boosts prices
China, which has already overtaken Japan as the world's second-largest oil importer, surprised industry analysts last year with a huge increase in oil imports, prompting concerns that the country may not be able to afford its fuel bill for much longer, Radio Free Asia (RFA) reports.
"I can't think of any country where oil imports have increased so rapidly both in relative and absolute terms, and the consensus seems to be that this growth will continue, at least in absolute terms," Robert Ebel, of the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, told RFA in a recent interview.
"You have to wonder, can they continue to afford buying the oil that they need to support their economy, particularly if prices of oil stay where they are at today's level--32 or 33 dollars a barrel?" Ebel told special correspondent Michael Lelyveld.
China's oil imports soared far above official forecasts last year, prompting concerns that the energy deficit could damage the country's economy. Crude oil imports rose by 31 percent in 2003 to more than 91 million tons, compared with the previous year. And the overall bill for foreign oil rose by 55 percent year-on-year to almost U.S.$20 billion.
Firstly, domestic production simply cannot keep up with demand. PetroChina's output increased by less than one percent last year, while production at the country's biggest resource, the Daqing oilfield, actually fell.
Secondly, the war in Iraq and recovery from the SARS outbreak brought bumps and shocks to China's oil demand, which is having a global impact, boosting demand and prices--and adding more to China's energy costs.
Edward Morse, an energy analyst at Hess Energy Trading Company, says that China can afford the growing cost of oil imports in the near term, but that there may be problems sustaining such import levels in the longer term. "I don't think it's getting to be a problem in the short run. The problem comes from compounding the rate of growth over a few years," he said.
Morse predicted that China's fleet of cars and trucks would double over the next five years, resulting almost certainly in a doubling of fuel consumption for transportation purposes.
"Looked at in the perspective of five or 10 years from now, the current trend really could cause them to rethink whether they can afford to do what they're doing," he told RFA.
What's more, China's booming oil demand is in itself contributing to higher costs by driving up global prices. "Their growth in demand this (past) year was surprising," said Jason Feer, Singapore bureau chief for the oil industry weekly Petroleum Argus. "China alone accounted for a third of the overall world growth in demand for oil. So, that certainly had an impact on price."
"And I think there's certainly a valid point that the more they demand, or the faster their rate of growth, the more impact that will have on their own economy," Feer said, adding that China's plans to build an emergency crude reserve would exacerbate the effect, if implemented.
Last year, the cost of foreign oil rose to 1.4 percent of GDP from one percent a year before. Total consumption of crude oil was equal to nearly four percent of GDP. The figures do not include the cost of refined fuels or other energy sources like coal, which have also grown.
And China so far has shown few signs of addressing energy efficiency issues which might ease the situation. "So far, the government has swung back forth with arguments about whether the economy is overheated or not," Ebel said. "In the meantime, the economy has powered ahead with unrestrained growth in sectors like auto manufacturing despite energy shortages, leaving no option but to buy more foreign oil."
Plans to impose new rules for better fuel mileage in new cars are in the pipeline, but the effect may not be felt for years, he said. #####

MONGOLIAN OIL COULD HELP CHINA'S ENERGY WOES
2004-02-02
Company hopes for pipeline into northern China
A Mongolian oilfield first discovered in the early 1990s has proven far more promising than originally believed, prompting calls for a pipeline linking it to northern China, RFA's Mandarin service reports.
The UK-based Soco International oil company said it had drilled four exploration wells in the Zuunbayan field, at the northeastern tip of Mongolia, during 2003. It said it had found significant reserves of a higher quality and greater predictability than was previously known in the area.
"We've discovered oil in a much better reservoir, at a shallower depth than the previous wells and one which we think we'll be able to predict with much greater certainty where to drill in the future," Soco International's president and chief executive Ed Story said in an interview.
"The key in what we've been about is to get enough quantity, proven reserves, to then go forward to build a pipeline so you can move larger quantities to sell to China," Story said, adding that Soco and its Chinese and Vietnamese partners had long had an eye on the China market.
China is facing skyrocketing oil bills as a result of strong economic growth, overtaking Japan in 2003 to become the world's second-largest oil importer. So far, its attempts to negotiate pipeline deals with major producers like Russia and Kazakhstan have not yielded fruit.
Wang Baoji, a Chinese representative at the project for the Huabei Petroleum Management Bureau, agreed that the oilfield was a significant find. "We've been cooperating with Soco since 1989," he told RFA. "As for production, it's been coming onstream fairly fast now. It's not bad... particularly Area 19 [in the Tamtsag Basin area]." He said the project had also promoted cooperation between China and Mongolia.
Huabei currently holds a 10 percent stake in the venture, with PetroVietnam holding 5 percent, and Soco 85 percent. The oilfield currently exports around 500 barrels daily by truck to China.
Story said Soco had chosen to work with Huabei--which provides drilling services--partly because of their previous experience drilling in a similar deposit in China, and partly for economic reasons.
"We use Chinese rigs and Chinese personnel who've come over actually from the Huabei area, and that's the key, so we've got the costs down," he said, adding that Soco was probably the first oil company even to use Chinese drilling rigs outside China.
Those savings meant that Soco could afford to drill more wells in any given year, with a potential to export as much as 10,000 barrels per day if a pipeline were built. He said that now that the potential of the Mongolian oilfield was known, a pipeline would stand a good chance of attracting development funding.
"From the standpoint of China... it would be the closest source of additional oil reserves, although not on the scale of those in Russia, but certainly it could become significant, it could be very secure, and really support a trading relationship between China and Mongolia," Story said.
China's oil imports soared far above official forecasts last year, prompting concerns that the energy deficit could damage the country's economy. Crude oil imports rose by 31 percent in 2003 to more than 91 million tons, compared with the previous year. And the overall bill for foreign oil rose by 55 percent year-on-year to almost U.S.$20 billion. #####
Copyright ? 2001-2004 Radio Free Asia. All Rights Reserved.


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Company reports

Real-time reality
Jan 29th 2004
From The Economist print edition
Why does it take firms so long to produce their annual results?
"THE market has given unusual attention to the report of the Deutsche Bank," noted The Economist of March 5th 1904, "owing to the splendid results announced."* This year the Deutsche Bank will announce its results (expected to be less than splendid) on February 5th. In a century the bank has speeded up the production of this vital piece of information by four weeks. Other German firms have persisted with 19th-century reporting schedules. TUI, a big travel group, has declared that it will not reveal its 2003 results until it holds its annual press conference on March 31st. That is much later than most German banks were reporting their annual profits a century ago.
Next to the snail-like TUI, big American firms look like accounting cheetahs (sic). America's biggest financial business and its biggest manufacturing firm--Citigroup and General Motors (GM), respectively--each produced their annual results this year on January 20th, within three weeks of the end of the reporting period. That is considerably less than the 90 days that firms are allowed by America's securities legislation to file Form 10-K, the document revealing their annual results.
But even the speed of American firms is by no means as impressive as it seems. For one thing, there has been little improvement for 20 years. In 1984, General Electric announced its results on January 17th, one day later than this year; the same year Citicorp (as Citigroup then was) came out with its results two days earlier than in 2004. Given the advances in information technology in the intervening decades, could corporate accounting departments have been expected to do better? Cisco Systems, one of the most advanced users of IT in America, is scheduled to produce its results for the quarter to January 24th on February 3rd. Given its enthusiasm for the "real-time enterprise", should Cisco by now be coming up with its results on the day after the period to which they apply, if not on the day itself?
A real-time enterprise (RTE) has computer systems that are so intimately inter-linked that information flows among them almost instantaneously. Many firms are trying to set up such systems so that they avoid nasty shocks. GM is keen on the idea, to such an extent that its boss, Rick Wagoner, is said to know the firm's bottom line some two weeks before it is revealed to outside investors. Others, such as Wet Seal, an American retailer, are today gathering most cost and revenue data daily.
In "Heads Up" (to be published in April by the Harvard Business School Press), Kenneth McGee, a vice-president of Gartner, a research firm, describes a "large services company" whose fixed costs are so stable that it can predict its profits for the current quarter, within a 1% margin of error, on the basis of the number and type of customers in the early part of the quarter. Its boss is thus able to spot business icebergs well before they hit him. These days, says Mr McGee, "there is no such thing as a legitimate business surprise."
Mr McGee's enthusiasm for RTEs comes from the power they give managers to anticipate problems. He also believes that by the end of this decade high-performing RTEs will be publishing their earnings per share on a daily basis. This, he claims, will give them a competitive edge in raising capital. Most accountants, however, remain sceptical. Baruch Lev, professor of accounting at New York University's Stern School of Business, points out that earnings figures are based on more than raw facts. They involve estimations and assumptions about things like losses from bad debts. Calculating those will always take time. So perhaps Citigroup will not, after all, announce its 2103 results any earlier than the third week in January 2104.
* "Since a week ago the annual statements of the remaining large banks of the city have been published. The market has given unusual attention to the report of the Deutsche Bank, owing to the splendid results announced. The dividend (11 per cent), it is true, is not increased, owing to the heavy amounts written off and carried to the reserves, but the net earnings of the bank show a large gain over 1902. These reached ?1,215,350, being ?183,700 more than for the previous year. From the earnings ?181,500 is carried to the reserves, which now stand at ?2,950,000, and ?63,900 is written off on buildings. The total turnover for the year shows a further large gain, having amounted to ?2,982,000,000, or ?132,850,000 more than for 1902. The bank's quick assets are returned at ?36,100,000, being an increase of ?2,400,000; deposits and creditors at ?39,450,000, or ?3,500,000 more than at the end of 1902. The above are all record figures. Of the ?2,785,000 in securities owned by the bank only ?168,000 represents railway, bank and industrial shares, all the rest being in fixed interest-bearing paper. While the market had expected an increase of the dividend to 12 per cent, the report has made a most satisfactory impression."
Copyright ? 2004 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.
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Corporate tax
A taxing battle
Jan 29th 2004
From The Economist print edition
Governments around the world are scrabbling for scarce corporate taxes
NOBODY wants to pay taxes. No wonder, then, that so many companies spend so much effort trying to avoid them. Almost every big corporate scandal of recent years, from Enron to Parmalat, has involved tax-dodging in one form or another. In the latest revelation on January 26th, Dick Thornburgh, the man appointed to look at the collapse of WorldCom, released a report claiming that, as well as the slew of other crooked dealings of which the bankrupted telecoms company is guilty, it also bilked the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) of hundreds of millions of dollars in taxes through a tax shelter cooked up by KPMG, its auditor.
Tax authorities around the world rightly fret that such cases are the tip of a large iceberg, and they are starting to act. In America, home to many of the best-known corporate-tax scams of recent years, the Bush administration has announced a series of anti-tax-dodging measures in its new budget, which will be presented to Congress on February 2nd, including an extra $300m to boost enforcement and the shutting of corporate-tax dodges that could bring in, it reckons, up to $45 billion over the next ten years.
But the IRS was becoming stroppier even before these measures. In early January, it slapped GlaxoSmithKline, a big British drugs company, with a $5.2 billion bill, claiming that Glaxo Wellcome, its predecessor, underpaid taxes on profits made in America from 1989 to 1996. Even though Glaxo had paid taxes on its profits in Britain, and although there is a "double-taxation" agreement between Britain and America, which means that a company should not have to pay tax on the same profits in both countries, the IRS decided that much of this profit had, in fact, been made in America. GlaxoSmithKline is to fight the tax bill in court.
Whatever the outcome of that case, the company's woes, and the prospect of being taxed twice on the same profits, have sent a shiver through the tax departments of multinationals everywhere. A tax partner at one big accounting firm says that "transfer pricing" is the biggest worry for tax directors at the overwhelming majority of big companies. Disputes between multinationals and tax authorities have been rising anyway, according to tax experts at the accountancy firms that are often embroiled in them. The IRS has showed that it is upping the stakes further.
Many of these disputes, which rarely see the light of day, occur over transfer pricing. This is the method used by multinational firms to value goods and services bought and sold among subsidiaries, and is a big determinant of the profits booked--and thus taxes paid--in a given country.
Two trends show the increasing rift between companies and the tax authorities. The first is a spike in so-called "advance pricing agreements" (APAs). In these, tax authorities and a nervous multinational essentially agree on its transfer-pricing methodology. Even though these are cumbersome and time-consuming, by March last year the IRS had signed 434 such agreements since the first one in 1991, and their number has surged in recent years: in 2002, the IRS signed 87 APAs, 40% more than two years earlier.
The second revealing trend is the way in which the big accounting firms are beefing up their transfer-pricing departments. In Britain alone, the combined numbers employed by the four-biggest accounting firms in transfer pricing has tripled in recent years, even though their clients have themselves also been employing more people to deal with tax issues.
A global headache
These spats demonstrate a growing unease among governments that the obvious benefits of a globalising economy come with a high price: a loosened grip on the companies that increasingly can and do shift their employees, know-how, capital and even headquarters overseas--and with them their taxable profits.
Put simply, multinationals are becoming more, well, multinational. According to UNCTAD, a United Nations agency, in the early 1990s there were 37,000 international companies with 175,000 foreign subsidiaries. By last year, there were 64,000 with 870,000 subsidiaries. Increasingly, such companies are being managed on regional or even global lines, not national ones. An extraordinary 60% of international trade is within these multinationals, ie, firms trading with themselves. Many have global brands, global research and development, and regional profit centres. The only reason for preparing national accounts is that tax authorities require it. But it is hard to say quite where global firms' profits are generated.
Governments have responded to this fluidity partly by reducing their corporate-tax rates. According to KPMG, a big accounting firm, OECD countries cut corporate-tax rates by nearly seven percentage-points between 1996 and 2003. Some have cut aggressively. Ireland slashed corporate-tax rates by some 23 percentage points over the same time period, and attracted much foreign investment as a result--to the fury of fellow EU members.
Countries have also built ever-higher barricades of complex rules to retain what they see as their fair share of corporate profits. And rich countries are not alone in doing this. In recent years, India, Thailand and other developing countries have added their own transfer-pricing regulations to the existing jumble.
Navigating this mishmash of regulations is no easy task. Transfer prices are very tricky. Most countries set them at "arm's length"--ie, the price an independent party would pay for a given service or product. Though the principle is a nice one, the practice is complicated, particularly because companies are increasingly service-oriented and rely more on brands, intellectual property and other hard-to-price intangibles. The issues raised by transfer pricing can thus be dauntingly philosophical. "You are dealing with fundamental questions, such as what creates value," says KPMG's Ted Keen. "And the answer is different every time."
The quarrel between GlaxoSmithKline and the IRS, for instance, revolves around what made Zantac--its hugely profitable ulcer drug--so valuable. Was it the money poured into research and development in Britain, or the advertising and marketing in America? Clearly, both were factors, but deciding how much was contributed by whom, and thus how to divvy up costs, profits and taxes is hard.
Of course, transfer pricing is open to manipulation. A report by America's Senate in 2001 claimed that multinationals evaded up to $45 billion in American taxes in 2000. Whatever the truth of this claim, some of the report's details were eye-catching: one firm sold toothbrushes between subsidiaries for $5,655 each.
Moreover, there is a mound of evidence, says James Hines, a tax expert at the University of Michigan, that shows that international companies tend to report higher taxable profits in countries where taxes are lower. Yet, as he says, this is not necessarily illegal or bad. Companies owe it to their shareholders to avoid paying unnecessary taxes. The trouble is that one person's abuse is another's smart planning. And the tension between those two views is likely to increase.
Copyright ? 2004 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.
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Galileo and GPS
Where it's at
Jan 29th 2004
From The Economist print edition
A European satellite-navigation network is on its way
IT IS now almost two years since the European Union decided to go ahead with plans to launch a satellite-navigation network to rival America's existing Global Positioning System (GPS). For much of this time, Galileo, as the European system is called, met with staunch opposition from America. However, a round of talks last November seems to have assuaged American concerns. The final details remained to be negotiated in talks in Washington, DC, on January 29th and 30th, as The Economist went to press. But the outlook for an agreement was good.
The core of the disagreement between the EU and America was whether the signals from the two competing systems might interfere with one another. More specifically, the Americans wanted the ability to jam Galileo without rendering GPS signals ineffective. The agreement reached in November was the first step in this direction. In return for the modification of Galileo's signals, the Americans agreed to give Europe technical assistance in developing Galileo, and to make sure that the third generation of GPS, to be deployed in 2012 (Galileo should be operational by 2008), will conform to Galileo's standards. This will aid the interoperability of the two systems, which is a commercial goal of both sides. It will also, in principle, give the Europeans the ability to jam the American signals in the event of a crisis in which the two sides' interests differ.
There is a bewildering array of different sorts of signals involved in each network. GPS currently has two, a civilian channel known as C/A and a military one, Y-channel. Plans for an additional military channel, called M-code, are in the works. Galileo will debut with five different signals: one freely available to all, like the GPSC/A signal; a commercial service which is more precise; a "safety-of-life" service that can be used for critical applications such as automatically landing aeroplanes; a "public regulated service" (PRS), which will be used by the EU's governments, and presumably, their armed forces; and a fifth, unique, service that combines positioning information with a distress beacon, which could be used by ships at sea or intrepid mountaineers. The negotiations in November resolved a conflict between America's M-code and the European PRS. What remains is to harmonise Galileo's free signal with the M-code.
Both systems rely on signals precisely timed from atomic clocks carried by the satellites (GPS has 24 satellites, Galileo will have 30). A user looks at the time on at least four satellites, and triangulates (or, perhaps, "quadrangulates") between them to find his position. Differences in the details of the different signals are what make the "premium" applications. Some are more precise than others, and they also have different levels of encryption, to prevent unauthorised users from accessing them.
What makes the situation bizarre is that several of these signals will overlap with one another, within a frequency range known as the L-band (this is about 10 times higher than the frequency used by commercial FM radio stations). That can be done using a technology called spread spectrum, which is now common in mobile telephones.
The trick is to embed the signal in a dense "pseudorandom" sequence (it is pseudorandom because it looks random but is actually generated by a computer program). To an uninitiated recipient, the result appears to be noise. However, if the recipient knows the right starting values for the program, he can regenerate the sequence and disentangle the original signal. The signals can overlap because each, to the others, resembles noise.
Galileo will be in part a commercial system. A concessionaire will get the right to operate the system for a fixed period in return for plunking down two-thirds of the deployment costs--around ?2.2 billion ($2.8 billion). But control and ownership of the network will remain with the EU (most of whose members are, or soon will be, America's military allies in NATO), through a yet-to-be-formed, and ominously titled, "Surveillance Authority".
This means that American fears about the use of Galileo during, say, a crisis in the Taiwan Strait, are perhaps overblown. Despite the fact that China recently agreed to pay ?200m towards Galileo's development, it will not have access to the PRS channel, nor a say in how Galileo is run during a crisis, according to Paul Flament, an engineer at the European Commission who is working on Galileo. The same is true of other prospective partners such as India and Israel. (Brazil is involved in an early stage of negotiations as well.)
Sceptics question whether Galileo will indeed prove profitable. They suggest that the concessionaire might face huge liabilities in the event of an accident. But at least four consortia are bidding to become the concessionaire, and these consortia include such firms as EADS (the owners of Airbus) and Alcatel. Optimistic projections talk of 2.5 billion users by 2020. If even a small fraction of that number needed additional precision and were willing to pay for it, the business would be lucrative. America may yet regret not privatising part of GPS.
Copyright ? 2004 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.

Japanese charged for espionage

2004-02-03 / Associated Press /
Prosecutors in Japan detained a Japanese man yesterday in response to an American request that he be handed over to face industrial espionage charges in the United States, media reported.

Takashi Okamoto, 43, a former researcher at the Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland, Ohio, was charged in May 2001 with conspiracy, economic espionage and interstate shipment of stolen property related to Alzheimer's disease research.

Tokyo prosecutors took Okamoto into custody after receiving an order from Justice Minister Daizo Nozawa to investigate the case, Kyodo News Agency reported. The prosecutors will decide whether to take the matter to the Tokyo High Court, which would rule whether he should be extradited.

Japan and the United States have an extradition treaty, but Tokyo only sends its citizens to face charges abroad if they have been accused of acts that are also illegal in Japan. While Japan doesn't have any economic espionage laws, the Justice Ministry decided Okamoto's acts constituted theft and destruction of property under Japanese law.

Okamoto is now a doctor at a hospital on Japan's northernmost main island of Hokkaido. He resigned from the Cleveland Clinic in 1999.

According to the indictment, Okamoto left the United States on August 17, 1999, a day after he and another Japanese man, Hiroaki Serizawa, allegedly left vials of tap water in place of missing genetic materials.

Okamoto allegedly arranged for them to be sent to the Institute of Physical and Chemical Research, north of Tokyo.


Posted by maximpost at 10:58 PM EST
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U.S.-accused industrial spy nabbed as Japan studies extradition request
The Tokyo High Public Prosecutor's Office placed a researcher in detention Monday in preparation for an examination into an extradition request filed by the United States, where he has been charged with industrial espionage.
Takashi Okamoto
Takashi Okamoto was taken to the Tokyo Detention House after Justice Minister Daizo Nozawa ordered prosecutors to examine the extradition request. They were to ask the Tokyo High Court to conduct the examination, sources said.
The high court will decide within two months whether Japan should hand the 43-year-old Okamoto over to the United States based on a bilateral extradition treaty, they said.
If the court approves extradition -- which is likely given that no such request in the past has been rejected -- the justice minister will order the prosecutors to hand him over within 30 days.
Okamoto, a former researcher at the Institute of Physical and Chemical Research (Riken) in Japan, was charged in the U.S. in May 2001 with stealing genetic material on Alzheimer's disease developed by the Learner Research Institute at the Cleveland Clinic Foundation, where he had previously worked.
He had returned to Japan by the time the indictment was handed down.
There is no industrial espionage charge in Japanese law, but the Justice Ministry has concluded that Okamoto's actions would be equivalent to theft and destruction of property if committed in Japan, according to the sources.
The conclusion led the ministry to support the handover of Okamoto to U.S. authorities in line with the extradition treaty, under which an offense must violate laws in both countries for extradition to take place, they said.
It is the first case in which the U.S. Economic Espionage Act has been invoked, and it has led to an amendment of Japan's Unfair Competition Prevention Law to criminalize the leakage of business secrets.
In the U.S., economic espionage carries a maximum penalty of 15 years in prison or a $500,000 fine.
The U.S. asked Japan in March 2002 to extradite Okamoto. The ministry has been studying whether he could be legally handed over on the basis of U.S. investigation findings.
Okamoto initially denied taking the genetic material from the institute, but later admitted it. However, he has argued that he is not guilty because the material is of no value.
According to the indictment, Okamoto took DNA, cell line reagents and other research materials on Alzheimer's disease from the foundation without permission when he was working as a researcher at the foundation in July 1999.
He left the materials with Hiroaki Serizawa, 42, a former assistant professor at the University of Kansas, before taking them to Japan for the benefit of Riken, a government-backed laboratory, according to the U.S. allegations.
Serizawa was also indicted for industrial espionage in the U.S., but the charges were dropped in a plea bargain in which he pleaded guilty to perjury and agreed to cooperate in the investigation. He was fined in connection with the case last May.
According to the Justice Ministry, eight Japanese have been handed over to U.S. authorities since the bilateral extradition treaty took effect.
The Japan Times: Feb. 3, 2004
(C) All rights reserved

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Mexico First Lady Could Run for Mayor
ASSOCIATED PRESS
MEXICO CITY (AP) - Members of President Vicente Fox's political party have formed a committee to back the first lady in a run for Mexico City mayor - despite polls consistently showing her as a leading presidential candidate, a newspaper reported Monday.
El Universal newspaper quoted two Congressmen in Fox's conservative National Action Party as saying the mayor's office would be a natural first step in Marta Sahagun's untested political abilities.
"With this support committee we are starting a network that will help Marta Sahagun and that will begin making the necessary contacts," said Rep. Jorge Triana Tena.
Sahagun's spokesman David Monjaraz said the first lady "had no knowledge of the existence of this alleged committee, not to mention who would be on it. This was not her initiative."
In January, Sahagun applied to become a member of National Action's 300-delegate national council, a first step toward officially seeking the presidential nomination. Term limits bar Fox from seeking the presidency again.
Initially, Sahagun denied having any presidential hopes, but that soon changed to a wait-and-see attitude.
"It will take strong reflection, and it has to make complete sense," she told The Associated Press on the sidelines of the Special Summit of the Americas earlier this month in the northern city of Monterrey.
Shortly thereafter, National Action director Luis Felipe Bravo Mena said rumors that the first lady will seek the presidency were "speculation that a lot of people are having fun with, but ultimately is not the least bit serious."
"I have always had the clear conviction that Mrs. Marta Sahagun will not be our candidate," Bravo Mena said.
Sahagun was Fox's spokeswoman before the couple married in 2001 on the one-year anniversary of his historic election. She has never held public office.
From the beginning, she broke the Mexican tradition of seen-but-not-heard first ladies, traveling around the country in support of the government and championing her private anti-poverty foundation.
Sahagun consistently has placed very high in 2006 presidential polls, close behind the front-runner, populist Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Lopez Obrador also has denied presidential aspirations, and term limits prevent him from running again for mayor.
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AP: Nuclear Black Market Is Small, Covert
By GEORGE JAHN
ASSOCIATED PRESS
VIENNA, Austria (AP) -
The nuclear black market that supplied Iran, Libya and North Korea is small, tight-knit and appears to have been badly hurt by the exposure of its reputed head, the father of Pakistan's nuclear program, diplomats and weapons experts told The Associated Press.
They describe the network that circumvented international controls to sell blueprints, hardware and know-how to countries running covert nuclear programs as involving people closely dependent on one another.
Abdul Qadeer Khan, who founded Pakistan's nuclear program, is emerging as the head of the ring believed to have been the main supplier through middlemen over three continents. A Pakistani government official revealed Monday that Khan has acknowledged in a written statement transferring nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea.
The sales, during the late 1980s and in the early and mid-1990s, were motivated by "personal greed and ambition," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The official added that the black market dealings were not authorized by the Pakistani government.
European diplomats also said it appeared unlikely President Pervez Musharraf sanctioned the deals. But with Khan close to previous governments, senior civilian and military officials before Musharraf's takeover in 1999 likely knew of some of the dealings, they said, speaking on condition of anonymity in interviews Monday and this past week.
They described Khan as the head of an operation likely involved in supplying both North Korea and Iran with uranium enrichment technology and hardware in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Libya was also a customer, receiving an array of nuclear-related equipment and know-how that included blueprints of a nuclear bomb handed over to U.S. and British intelligence officials late last month, they said.
Middlemen responsible for meshing supply and demand were located in European capitals, Asia and the Middle east, they said, typically working with Iranian, Libyan and North Korea's diplomats stationed abroad.
These would identify their country's needs and the intermediaries would then procure the orders, often ordering sensitive parts from manufacturers unaware of the end destination or purpose of what they were selling, they said. Most of those companies, were in Germany, Austria and Switzerland and other West European countries with the technological expertise to make finely machined centrifuge parts and other components.
Hundreds of millions of dollars changed hands over the past 15 years, in deals as easy to hide as a floppy disc storing sensitive drawings or as bulky as thousands of centrifuge parts for nuclear enrichment, a key part of building a weapons, the diplomats said.
A key beneficiary appears to be Khan, whose salary as a civil servant cannot account for what Pakistani newspapers say are far-flung real estate holdings and other assets worth millions of dollars.
Khan, who hasn't spoken publicly about the charges, but has been prevented from leaving Pakistan, has denied during interrogations with investigators that he made the transfers for personal gain.
Pakistani authorities began investigating Khan and key associates on information from the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency that some Pakistani nuclear scientists helped Iran and Libya get centrifuges for uranium enrichment.
Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi revealed - and renounced - his weapons and programs of mass destruction in December. Iran continues to maintain it has no nuclear weapons ambitions, but IAEA officials said Tehran has cooperated in revealing the sources of its centrifuges.
U.S. officials also suspect Pakistan bartered nuclear secrets in exchange for North Korean missile technology, a charge Pakistan denies. American officials believe North Korea already has one or two nuclear bombs and could make several more within months. North Korea has never confirmed or denied having atomic weapons.
While he has not been linked to the nuclear network headed by Khan, the case of Asher Karni, an Israeli businessman awaiting trial in the United States, offers a window on how those suspected of nuclear smuggling cover their tracks.
Court records allege Karni used a series of front companies and misleading shipping documents to buy detonation devices whose possible uses include setting off nuclear weapons from a Massachusetts company, then had them sent through New Jersey to South Africa and on to the United Arab Emirates and later to Pakistan.
A federal judge in Washington D.C. ruled last week Karni could be released while he awaits trial as long as he agreed to waive his immunity from extradition from Israel or South Africa, to pay a $100,000 bond and to be electronically monitored while he stays in Maryland.
The diplomats said thousands of components used for uranium enrichment and bound for Libya that were seized on a German ship in October had bogus papers masking their use, point of origin and end destination.
The ring supplying Iran, North Korea and Libya was small - probably no more than around a dozen major players who knew details of what was being sold to whom, said the diplomats. Many of them were probably dependent on Khan for his contacts, first as an employee of Urenco, the West European uranium enrichment consortium and then as the architect of the clandestine weapons program that publicly established Pakistan as a nuclear power in 1998.
The fact that he is now sidelined has, in combination with the world focus on interdiction and monitoring countries under suspicion, probably crippled the supply chain, the diplomats said.
David Albright, a former Iraq nuclear weapons inspector who now runs the Institute for Science and International Security, agreed. With Khan exposed, the ring that accounted for much of the three countries' illicit nuclear hardware and know-how is "now busted up," he said.
"There are still remnants, and that has to be watched, but this is a major victory for nonproliferation," he said from Washington.
On the Net:
Institute for Science and International Security, www.isis-online.org

------------------------------------------------------------------------


Former Pakistan Army Chief Niazi Dies
ASSOCIATED PRESS
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) - A former Pakistani army commander, whose surrender in a 1971 war allowing Bangladesh to win independence was considered by some a national humiliation, has died, the state news agency reported Monday. He was 89.
Lt. Gen. Amir Abdullah Khan Niazi, a diabetic who also suffered respiratory problems, died of cardiac arrest Sunday at a military hospital in the eastern city of Lahore, the state-run Associated Press of Pakistan news agency reported.
The report said he was one of Pakistan's most decorated soldiers and was wounded in action at least five times.
Niazi served as a junior officer during World War II, and later held various command positions in Pakistan's army after the country won independence from Britain in 1947.
As chief of the Pakistan army command in what was then called East Pakistan, Niazi and his forces fought Bangladeshi separatists and Indian forces in a bloody 1971 war and later surrendered.
The defeat is still considered by many Pakistanis to be a national humiliation. East Pakistan was renamed Bangladesh and became an independent country on Dec. 16, 1971.
According to Bangladeshi historians, some 3 million Bangladeshis died during the nine-month war.
Niazi was buried Monday in Lahore. He is survived by his two sons and three daughters, the state news agency said.

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Suspects on Trial for 2002 Kenya Bombing
By ROB JILLO
ASSOCIATED PRESS
NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) -
The November 2002 car bombing of a resort hotel on the Kenyan coast was part of an elaborate al-Qaida plot, a prosecutor said as four suspects went on trial for murder Monday.
Al-Qaida has twice struck Kenya, and Monday's trial, along with another trial of three other al-Qaida suspects on lesser charges, are the first attempts by authorities in the East African country to seek convictions against alleged terrorists.
Critics say the government's apparent lack of hard evidence shows Kenya is only prosecuting the men to satisfy the United States, which has criticized the country's anti-terror efforts.
On Monday, prosecutor Edwin Okello told the packed Nairobi High Court that witness testimony and physical evidence will clearly implicate the defendants.
The four Kenyan men first established ties with Osama bin Laden's network in January 2002, Okello said in his opening statement.
The suspects had "frequent communication with network members," he said, citing links between the defendants, the unidentified suicide bombers and Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, who is believed to be al-Qaida's ringleader in eastern Africa and who remains at large.
To keep a low-profile in the Indian Ocean port of Mombasa where the attack was planned, the suspects "rented ... houses for short periods, moving from one house to another to avoid suspicion," Okello said.
Omar Said Omar, Mohammed Ali Saleh Nabhan, Aboud Rogo Mohammed and Mohamed Kubwa have been charged with 15 counts of murder each for the Nov. 28, 2002, bombing of the Paradise Hotel north of Mombasa, an attack that killed 15 people, including three Israeli tourists.
Issa Kombo Issa, the first witness called Monday, testified he lost his national identity card in 1997.
Another witness, Reginald D'Souza, told the court that Omar rented a house from him in Mombasa from March 2002 until June 2002 using the same name, Issa Kombo Issa. Another man who identified himself as "Saleh" also lived in the house, D'Souza said.
Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, a Mombasa native, is believed to have helped build the bomb used in the hotel attack. He remains at large, but his brother is one of the defendants.
"The evidence presented by the prosecution does not link our clients to the actual terror attack," Mohammed Nabhan's lawyer, Kioko Kilukumi, said after the trial adjourned for the day. "The prosecution ... has no tangible evidence."
Prosecutors have, however, amassed a wealth of circumstantial evidence linking the defendants to the attack, according to a review of pretrial statements by The Associated Press. There were frequent telephone calls among some of suspects and Fazul, who married a sister of one of the defendants.
About the same time the car bomb struck exploded, several men fired two surface-to-air missiles that missed an Israeli charter airliner taking off from Mombasa's nearby airport.
Al-Qaida claimed responsibility for those attacks as well as for the August 1998 embassy bombings in Nairobi and in Dar es Salaam in neighboring Tanzania, which killed 231 people, including 12 Americans.
The other three Kenyan suspects are being tried on charges of conspiracy for their alleged roles in the hotel and embassy bombings, the attempt to shoot down the airliner, and an alleged plot last June to destroy the new U.S. Embassy in Nairobi.
The trial of the four men is expected to last at least a month. If convicted, they could face a death sentence.
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World Court Weighs Israel Security Wall
By ARTHUR MAX
ASSOCIATED PRESS
AMSTERDAM, Netherlands (AP) - A world court battle concerning Israel's security barrier on Palestinian land shaped up Monday, with one camp demanding judges denounce it as illegal and the other urging them to say nothing at all.
Nearly 50 countries and international blocs submitted depositions to the International Court of Justice in The Hague by Friday's deadline, diplomats said.
That sets the stage for the first confrontation on the Arab-Israel conflict to reach the United Nations' highest judicial body. The case will be one of the most scrutinized in the court's 57-year history.
The court normally arbitrates boundary or maritime disputes between consenting countries, but the U.N General Assembly asked it in December to give an advisory opinion on the "legal consequences" of the 440-mile barrier Israel is building in the West Bank. Its opinion would be nonbinding.
In an initial legal skirmish, a court official confirmed Israeli news reports that Jerusalem sought the removal of an Egyptian judge from the 15-member bench. The official said "the court has taken a decision on that," but he declined to elaborate.
The judge, Nabil Elaraby, is a former legal adviser to the Egyptian Foreign Ministry and has been involved in the Mideast conflict for three decades. He was part of the Egyptian delegation that negotiated the 1978 Camp David peace accords.
Most of the world court judges, who are elected to nine-year terms, are from countries that have submitted representations on the security fence. Court rules allow them to remain on the bench even when they are nationals of a country directly involved in a dispute before the court.
Israel's barrier - a complex of trenches, fences, concrete walls, razor wire and electronic sensors - snakes through the West Bank, often close to the internationally recognized border before Israel captured the West Bank in 1967, but in places it dips deep into Palestinian territory.
Israel said its purpose is to block suicide bombers, who have killed more than 400 Israelis in the last three years.
But the Palestinians call it "the apartheid wall," saying it is a land grab that isolates tens of thousands of Palestinians from their farmlands, jobs, schools or hospitals.
Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat criticized nations supporting Israel's position.
"They don't respect international law ... but rather follow in this mentality, the mentality of racist actions," Arafat said after a meeting of Christian leaders from Jerusalem.
The court must first decide whether it should render an opinion at all. Israel and its supporters argue the question is political and the court has no jurisdiction.
Israel, the United States and the European Union said the court's intervention in the dispute was inappropriate, and could undermine chances of reviving the U.S.-backed "road map" peace plan.
Diplomatic sources said Russia, Japan, Canada and Australia also urged the court not to intervene. The EU filed a deposition, as did several of its 15 members.
The court also agreed to accept depositions from the Arab League and the 57-nation Organization of Islamic Conference, which want the court to declare that the barrier violates international law.
Many of those supporting Israel's argument have said they oppose building the barrier through Palestinian territory.
"You very well know our position on the wall, it does not contribute to peace," Javier Solana, the EU's foreign policy representative, said Monday.
The court said the written submissions would remain confidential until oral arguments begin Feb. 23. Countries wishing to state their case before the judges must sign up by Feb. 13.

Posted by maximpost at 9:55 PM EST
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>> BBC AMERICA?


Whole family 'gassed to death' in chemical test
SEOUL:
South Korean officials cast doubt yesterday over the credibility of a documentary by the BBC that said North Korea was testing chemical weapons on women and children.
An official at South Korea's intelligence agency said a North Korean refugee used as a key source in the programme had made false claims about his positions in the Pyongyang regime and may have other motives for going public with his allegations.
"We know the person named as Kwon Hyuk in the report and we know he never worked at a political prison in North Korea," a National Intelligence Service official said.
The BBC report, aired on Sunday, included comments by a person known as Kwon Hyuk, a new name given to a former military attache at the North Korean embassy in Beijing and chief of management at Prison Camp 22.
Kwon said in the programme political prisoners, including women and children, were used to test suffocating gas and put to slow and painful deaths.
"I witnessed a whole family - the parents, son and a daughter - being tested on suffocating gas and dying in the gas chamber," he told the BBC.
He said it was 11.5 feet wide, 10 feet long and made of glass so that scientists could observe inmates as they were gassed.
"We know that he was also never a military attache in Beijing, as he claims," the official said, adding he believed there was little credibility in his testimony.
"We believe that he may be trying to get media attention," the official said, declining to elaborate.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

N Korea tests weapons on people: BBC
A program made by Britain's BBC says North Korea is killing political prisoners in experimental gas chambers and testing new chemical weapons on women and children.
Titled Access to Evil and being aired on Sunday, the program features an official North Korean document that says political prisoners are used to test new chemical weapons.
In a statement, the BBC said the documentary included comments by Kwon Hyuk, a new name given to a former military attache at the North Korean embassy in Beijing and chief of management at Prison Camp 22.
Using a drawing, he describes a gas chamber and the victims he says he saw at the prison in the north-east of the secretive communist state, near the Russian border.
"I witnessed a whole family being tested on suffocating gas and dying in the gas chamber. The parents, son and a daughter. The parents were vomiting and dying, but till the very last moment they tried to save kids by doing mouth-to-mouth breathing," he said.
"Normally, a family sticks together (in the gas chamber)... and individual prisoners stand separately around the corners. Scientists observe the entire process from above, through the glass."
Asked how he felt about the children, he said: "It would be a total lie for me to say I felt sympathetic about the children dying such a painful death. Under the society and the regime I was in at the time, I only felt that they were the enemies. So I felt no sympathy or pity for them at all."
The documentary was made for the BBC's This World series.
North Korean officials in London were unavailable to comment.
BBC journalist Olenka Frenkiel told Reuters she had three independent confirmations that Kwon Hyuk was genuine.
The human rights group Amnesty International said it had been unable to confirm previous reports of such testing.
"We have heard of these allegations but we cannot confirm them," a spokeswoman said.
North Korea - described by US President George W Bush as part of an "axis of evil" because of a nuclear weapons program and authoritarian system - has denied accusations of human rights abuses.
A top secret North Korean document also says political prisoners are used for "human biological experimentation and for production of biological weapons", the BBC said.
It interviews a person said to be a former prisoner in North Korea who had been ordered to poison others.
"An officer ordered me to select 50 healthy female prisoners. One of the guards handed me a basket full of soaked cabbage, told me not to eat it but to give it to the 50 women," Sun Ok Lee said, according to the BBC statement.
"All who ate the cabbage leaves started violently vomiting blood and screaming with pain. It was hell. In less than 20 minutes, they were quite dead."
Frenkiel said she had also seen other official North Korean documents, one of which referred to the transfer of a prisoner "for the purpose of human experimentation of liquid gas for chemical weapons" in February 2002.
--Reuters
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

'N.K. tests chemical arms on prisoners'
Kwon Hyok is one of about 4,000 North Korean defectors living in Seoul, South Korea.
Most escaped because of hunger, fear, torture, imprisonment or a simple hatred of the regime.
But Kwon Hyok is not one of those. In 1999 he was a North Korean intelligence agent stationed in Beijing when he was persuaded by the South Koreans to defect.
Six years before, in 1993, Kwon Hyok says he was head of security at Prison Camp 22 in Haengyong, an isolated area near the border with Russia.
Camp 22 is one of a network of prisons in North Korea modeled on the Soviet gulag where hundreds of thousands of prisoners are held.
Most of them have been charged with no crime. They are there because of the "heredity rule."
"In North Korea, "Kwon Hyok explains, "political prisoners are those who say or do something against the dead President Kim Il-sung, or his son Kim Jong-il. But it also includes a wide network of next of kin. It's designed to root out the seeds of those classed as disloyal to North Korea."
In prison, says Kwon Hyok, "there is a watchdog system in place between members of five different families. So if I were caught trying to escape, then my family and the four neighboring families are shot to death out of collective responsibility."
Torture, he says, was routine. "Prisoners were like pigs or dogs. You could kill them without caring whether they lived or died."
"For the first three years," he explained, "you enjoy torturing people but then it wears off and someone else takes over. But most of the time you do it because you enjoy it."
But Kwon Hyok had something else he wanted to tell.
He says he witnessed chemical experiments being carried out on political prisoners in specially constructed gas chambers.
"How did you feel when you saw the children die?" I asked.
His answer shocked me.
"I had no sympathy at all because I was taught to think that they were all enemies of our country and that all our country's problems were their fault. So I felt they deserved to die."
There have been many rumors of human experimentation on political prisoners in North Korea. But never has anyone offered documentary proof. Until now.
In Seoul I met Kim Sang-hun, a distinguished human rights activist.
He showed me documents given to him by someone else completely unrelated to Kwon Hyok. He told me the man had recently snatched them illicitly from Camp 22 before escaping.
They are headed 'letter of transfer,' marked top secret and dated February 2002. They each bear the name of a male victim, as well as his date and place of birth. The text reads: "The above person is transferred from Camp 22 for the purpose of human experimentation with liquid gas for chemical weapons."
I took one of the documents to a Korean expert in London who examined it and confirmed that there was nothing to suggest it was not genuine.
But I wanted to run a check of my own with Kwon Hyok. Without showing him the letter of transfer, I asked him very specifically, without prompting him in any way.
"How were the victims selected when they went for human experimentation? Was there some bureaucracy, some paperwork?"
"When we escorted them to the site we would receive a letter of transfer," he said.
Sadly, as long as these reports continue from defectors, and as long as the North Korean government continues to deny all allegations of human rights abuse, while refusing to allow access to its prisons, such allegations cannot be dismissed or ignored.
(BBC Online News)
2004.02.02
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Military eases construction bans near bases
A vast tract of areas bordering North Korea will no longer be subject to construction bans that have been in place to facilitate military operations, the Ministry of Defense announced yesterday.
Officials said the deregulatory move would affect some 8.3 million pyeong of land from 460 locations, mostly in Seoul and Incheon as well as northern border regions of Gyeonggi and Gangwon provinces.
Instead, 36 tiny sites amounting to 10 million pyeong along the border will newly be placed under the military ban, officials said. One pyeong equals about 3.3 square meters.
The liberalization policy will go into effect as of March 20.
"In line with drastic change in the military's operational environment, we are planning to lift or ease construction bans in many border areas where property rights were severely limited," said Major Kim Ju-baek, who is in charge of deregulation policies at the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Owners of real estate in these areas will be given much more liberty to build new structures.
Twenty-six communities in Seoul, including mountainous areas in Hongje-dong and Jeongneung-dong, will be categorized as normal residential zones, providing further impetus for new town projects pursued by the Seoul government.
In other areas deemed more important to the military's strategic operations, regional construction authorities will gain the administrative power to grant permission for commercial development of the land.
(khjack@heraldm.com)
By Choe Yong-shik
2004.02.03

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Unclassified Part of Wen Ho Lee Report Due for Release
By Richard Benke Associated Press Writer
Published: Feb 2, 2004
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) - Unclassified portions of a never-released Justice Department report on the investigation and prosecution of nuclear scientist Wen Ho Lee will be given to a government secrecy watchdog.
"It's the answer to the question: What went wrong?" said Steven Aftergood, who will receive the materials.
The report was prepared after the criminal case against Lee crumbled and he was freed in 2000. Its release had been repeatedly rejected by the Justice Department under both Janet Reno and John Ashcroft.
Aftergood appealed their refusals, and Justice Department official Richard Huff responded by working out a plan for the release. Huff wrote Aftergood on Jan. 21 that the office would send him "the releasable information contained in the unclassified portions of the report."
Another Justice Department committee, meanwhile, will consider declassifying portions of the classified material in the report, Huff's letter says.
Aftergood, director of the Project on Government Secrecy for the Federation of American Scientists, said Monday he expects to see part of the report by March 1.
The Taiwan-born Lee acknowledged downloading sensitive nuclear weapons data to an unsecure computer tape cassette. Lee, a U.S. citizen, was never charged with espionage and said he never passed any sensitive or classified material to anyone.
AP-ES-02-02-04 1931EST

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Aflac Takes Hit in Parmalat Scandal
The Associated Press
Published: Feb 2, 2004
COLUMBUS, Ga. (Dow Jones/AP) - Aflac Inc. Monday said fourth-quarter net income fell 61 percent as the insurer was hurt by losses from its investment in fallen Italian dairy giant Parmalat Finanziaria SpA.
Aflac posted a loss of $257 million from the sale of its stake in Parmalat, which is under investigation in an alleged multibillion-dollar fraud scandal. The insurer decided to sell its $428 million investment in Parmalat in December after the conglomerate's credit rating was cut to junk status.
Columbus-based Aflac said its fourth-quarter net profit fell to $73 million, or 14 cents a share, from $186 million, or 35 cents a share, a year earlier.
The company's investment losses widened to $175 million, or 34 cents a share, from $4 million, or 1 cent a share, a year earlier.
Aflac also recorded a loss of $38 million from the sale of its investment in Levi Strauss & Co.
Excluding the investment sales and a loss of $14 million from currency exchange-related items, Aflac posted earnings of $262 million, or 50 cents a share, matching a Thomson First Call average of analyst estimates.
Aflac's revenue rose to $2.85 billion from $2.67 billion a year earlier. The revenue was below analysts' expectation of $3.05 billion, according to a First Call poll.
Aflac repeated that its expects a 17 percent rise in 2004 operating earnings, which exclude investment gains or losses. The company expects 15 percent operating earnings per share growth in 2005. The forecasts for both years exclude the effect of currency translation.
Aflac's operating earnings for all of 2003 rose to $989 million, or $1.89 a share, from $825 million, or $1.56 a share, a year earlier. Excluding a 6 cent benefit from currency translation, earnings per share met Aflac's forecast for 17 percent growth in 2003.
Aflac raised its quarterly dividend to 9.5 cents from 8 cents. The dividend is payable March 1 to shareholders of record Feb. 13.
Aflac's board also approved a plan to purchase up to 30 million of its shares, in addition to the seven million shares previously authorized for repurchase. The company has about 512.8 million shares outstanding.
Aflac shares closed Monday, before the earnings release, at $37.81, up 93 cents, or 2.5 percent, on the New York Stock Exchange. In extended trading, the shares were up $1.19, or 3.2 percent, at $39.
AP-ES-02-02-04 1854EST
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Pentagon Says No Internet Voting Experiment in S.C. Primary
The Associated Press
Published: Feb 2, 2004
COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) - The Pentagon will not test an Internet voting project Tuesday during South Carolina's Democratic presidential primary, a spokesman says.
The system, known as SERVE, is the Secure Electronic Registration and Voting Experiment. It is being developed for U.S. citizens overseas and is supposed to allow potential voters to register and vote according to their local procedures and state laws, Pentagon officials have said.
Last month, several leading computer experts criticized the system, arguing that it could be penetrated by hackers, criminals, terrorists or foreign governments.
"The SERVE system will not be used for the South Carolina primary, since certification of the system is still in progress," Pentagon spokesman Glenn Flood told The Associated Press. "It is estimated that independent testing of the system for certification will take several more months to complete."
AP-ES-02-02-04 1852EST
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Chirac gives full support to convicted Jupp?
By Robert Graham in Paris
Published: February 2 2004 22:37 | Last Updated: February 2 2004 22:37
President Jacques Chirac on Monday intervened to give his full support to Alain Jupp?, the former prime minister and his favoured successor, who is contemplating quitting politics after being found guilty of political corruption.
With the 58-year-old Mr Jupp? due to announce his position on Tuesday , the intervention appeared designed to bolster a controversial decision to remain in politics and fight the court sentence through appeal.
Until Friday's court verdict, Mr Jupp? had said he would resign if found guilty. But since he received an 18 month suspended sentence and was barred from office for 10 years, his supporters have campaigned to make him stay.
"He has to take a decision, and I respect him for that but whatever he decides he will be fully aware of what he is doing," President Chirac said in Marseilles.
He then added: "He is a politician of exceptional quality, competence, humanity and honesty, and France needs people with his qualities."
Although he did not formally ask him not to resign, there was a clear message for Mr Jupp? to stand firm and fight the courts with an appeal. Pending appeal, the sentence is automatically suspended.
The overt endorsement of the man President Chirac chose to be his prime minister after winning the presidency in 1995 and who masterminded his re-election in 2002 by unifying the centre-right under the UMP banner, drew criticism from the leftwing opposition. By publicly backing Mr Jupp?, Socialist politicians said, the head of state was implicitly impugning the court's judgment.
Earlier Fran?ois Hollande, the Socialist party leader, had taken premier Jean-Pierre Raffarin to task for describing the judgment as "a surprise" and "provisional". "The prime minister's role is to respect the decisions of the courts and above all not to question how the judicial system works," Mr Hollande said.
If Mr Jupp? does step down, albeit for the period until his appeal is heard towards the end of the year, the ruling UMP will have to find a new leader to manage the campaign for the March regional elections. Mr Jupp? had been due to launch the campaign next Sunday.
Another possible influence on his decision is President Chirac's move on Sunday to order an investigation by members of France's highest administrative, financial and judicial bodies into reports the three judges in the Jupp? trial received threats and interference with their computer systems.
This will be on top of a police inquiry ordered by justice minister Dominique Perben over the weekend and the likelihood of a separate parliamentary mission looking into the alleged pressures on the judiciary.
On Monday a spokesman for the mainstream judges' union warned: "All these inquiries are being devoted to the same dossier with the risk of creating confusion and reaching divergent conclusions." The statement went on to criticise politicians for attacking the Jupp? sentence: "This affair shows that France is a developing country as regards its democracy where the deputies have yet to get into their heads the idea that judges are independent."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Potemkin WMDs?
Really?
So now comes David Kay, a good man, a person I like a lot, with a lot to say. He set out to find large stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction and didn't. He says there's evidence that some stuff may have gone to Syria, but nothing like the quantities he expected to find. He has no doubt that Saddam had -- or rather had ordered, and was told he had -- a full-blown WMD program. But there's no sign of it, at least so far as David Kay and his CIA minions could find.
So what happened?
David now thinks that it was a Potemkin program. Count Potemkin was the lover of Tsarina Catherine the Great of Russia, and he was told to build new towns and cities for the grandeur of the regime. He couldn't manage it, but he couldn't tell his mistress the terrible truth. So he lied to her. And when she asked to see the new places, he created the eighteenth-century equivalent of movie sets. She sailed down the river, the movie sets were set up on the banks, and happy people waved at her. When the royal ship was out of sight, the villagers packed up the set, and raced downstream to the next site. From this, the expression "Potemkin village."
Thus, David tells us, Saddam's WMD program. He ordered his loyal servants to make him atomic bombs, chemical and biological weapons, and effective delivery systems. They couldn't manage it, but they couldn't tell Saddam because he would have killed them. So they faked it, producing a vast documentation for a program that did not really exist. The CIA (and the Brits, the French, the Germans, the Israelis, the Russians, etc. etc.) got some of this, and got some of the same false reports as Saddam received, and they went for it, just as Saddam did.
It's a great theory. It's imaginative and entertaining. It explains our failure to find what we expected to find, and it explains what we did find: considerable documentation about WMD programs. It also explains how Saddam could have ordered the deployment of WMDs, and nothing happened. Nothing could happen, because there was nothing there.
It's also devastating to the CIA and the other intelligence services, because one of its central conclusions is that the intelligence world didn't really have a clue about what was really going on -- or rather, what wasn't going on. It suggests that the intelligence world never really challenged its own conclusions, even though there was no physical evidence to support them. If David Kay is right, then every datum in the analysis was fictional.
What a scandal! CIA's supposed to create such fictions, not be gulled by them.
As I say, it's a terrific theory. But I'm skeptical, and I've got a real reason for my skepticism, which David can easily confirm. Last August I called him in Baghdad to tell him that I had a person -- a good person, like himself, a person I trust -- who was prepared to take him to an underground laboratory from which a quantity of enriched uranium had been taken a few years ago, and smuggled to Iran. Wow, he said, let's go look. Have the guy call me, we'll check it out.
The guy could never get David on the phone because the CIA decided not to investigate after all. The CIA never went to look, and I don't know if that stuff was real or fictional. But this case was totally different from the Potemkin WMDs of David's elegant theory. Because my guy was in contact with the people who said they had moved the stuff from Iraq to Iran. They were now sick, and wanted to tell their story before they got much worse. But, as I say, the CIA never went to look. They pretended they wanted to, they finally met with my guy, but they told him they didn't believe his story (although there was really no reason to either believe it or not, it was a matter of either looking or not, and if you didn't look you couldn't know anything one way or the other). He said the people who had done the smuggling had a full description of the material on a CD Rom, which they were willing to provide. CIA wasn't interested. And that's the end of it, so far as I know.
So there's one instance where the CIA wasn't curious enough to take a ride and look at a lab. And I ask myself whether there were other such cases. I know of other examples, not involving WMDs, but involving Saddam's money, where CIA refused to look, and the stories they were told -- and decided not to believe -- turned out to be true.
And then I read the words of Peter Hain, the leader of the House of Commons in London. He says "I saw evidence that was categorical on Saddam possessing chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction." And we know, from the recent Hutton Report, that Tony Blair's claim that Saddam could be prepared to launch WMD attacks against Coalition forces "within 45 minutes," had come directly from MI6. Were the Brits fooled too? Hain insists they were not.
And then there's the story from the Syrian journalist in Paris who claims to have maps from high-ranking military intelligence officials in Damascus, identifying the sites where, he says, some of Saddam's stockpiles were moved. Have we checked that story?
I love the theory. But I have my doubts. Maybe time will tell.
http://www.nationalreview.com/ledeen/ledeen200402020833.asp


Posted by maximpost at 9:44 PM EST
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